WorldWideScience

Sample records for atmospheric general circulation

  1. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiller, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Mikolajewicz, U. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-02-01

    The stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation against meltwater input is investigated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The meltwater input to the Labrador Sea is increased linearly for 250 years to a maximum input of 0.625 Sv and then reduced again to 0 (both instantaneously and slowly decreasing over 250 years). The resulting freshening forces a shutdown of the formation of North Atlantic deepwater and a subsequent reversal of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic, filling the deep Atlantic with Antarctic bottom water. The change in the overturning pattern causes a drastic reduction of the Atlantic northward heat transport, resulting in a strong cooling with maximum amplitude over the northern North Atlantic and a southward shift of the sea-ice margin in the Atlantic. Due to the increased meridional temperature gradient, the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the westerlies in the northern hemisphere gain strength. We identify four main feedbacks affecting the stability of the thermohaline circulation: the change in the overturning circulation of the Atlantic leads to longer residence times of the surface waters in high northern latitudes, which allows them to accumulate more precipitation and runoff from the continents, which results in an increased stability in the North Atlantic.

  2. Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

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    Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

    1999-10-01

    We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

  3. The relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation in general circulation model experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharin, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    Several multi-year integrations of the Hamburg version of the ECMWF/T21 general circulation model driven by the sea surface temperature (SST) observed in the period 1970-1988 were examined to study the extratropical response of the atmospheric circulation to SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. In the first 19-years run SST anomalies were prescribed globally (GAGO run), and in two others SST variability was limited to extratropical regions (MOGA run) and to tropics (TOGA run), respectively. A canonical correlation analysis was applied to the monthly means to find the best correlated patterns of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric flow. Contrary to expectation, the extratropical response in the GAGO run is not equal to the linear combination of the responses in the MOGA and TOGA runs. In the GAGO integration with globally prescribed SST the best correlated atmospheric pattern is global and is characterized by dipole structures of the same polarity in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific sectors. In the MOGA and TOGA experiments the atmospheric response is more local with main centers in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The atmospheric modes found by the CCA were compared with the normal modes of the barotropic vorticity equation linearized about the 500 mb winter climate of the control integration driven by the climatological SST. The normal modes with smallest eigenvalues are similar to the canonical patterns of 500 mb geopotential height. The corresponding eigenvectors of the adjoint operator, which represent an external forcing optimal for exciting normal modes, have a longitudinal structure with maxima in regions characterized by enhanced high frequency baroclinic activity over both oceans. It was suggested that variability of storm tracks could play an important role in variability of the barotropic normal modes. (orig.)

  4. General circulation model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinto, J.P.; Yung, Y.L.; Rind, D.; Russell, G.L.; Lerner, J.A.; Hansen, J.E.; Hameed, S.

    1983-01-01

    The carbon monoxide cycle is studied by incorporating the known and hypothetical sources and sinks in a tracer model that uses the winds generated by a general circulation model. Photochemical production and loss terms, which depend on OH radical concentrations, are calculated in an interactive fashion. The computed global distribution and seasonal variations of CO are compared with observations to obtain constraints on the distribution and magnitude of the sources and sinks of CO, and on the tropospheric abundance of OH. The simplest model that accounts for available observations requires a low latitude plant source of about 1.3 x 10 15 g yr -1 , in addition to sources from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and oxidation of methane. The globally averaged OH concentration calculated in the model is 7 x 10 5 cm -3 . Models that calculate globally averaged OH concentrations much lower than our nominal value are not consistent with the observed variability of CO. Such models are also inconsistent with measurements of CO isotopic abundances, which imply the existence of plant sources

  5. A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

    OpenAIRE

    Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

    2004-01-01

    The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

  6. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  7. A January angular momentum balance in the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.-W.; Grady, W.

    1982-01-01

    The present investigation is concerned with an analysis of the atmospheric angular momentum balance, based on the simulation data of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). An attempt is also made to gain an understanding of the involved processes. Preliminary results on the angular momentum and mass balance in the AGCM are shown. The basic equations are examined, and questions of turbulent momentum transfer are investigated. The methods of analysis are discussed, taking into account time-averaged balance equations, time and longitude-averaged balance equations, mean meridional circulation, the mean meridional balance of relative angular momentum, and standing and transient components of motion.

  8. Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

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    Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

  9. Impact of variations of gravitational acceleration on the general circulation of the planetary atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilic, Cevahir; Raible, Christoph C.; Stocker, Thomas F.; Kirk, Edilbert

    2017-01-01

    Fundamental to the redistribution of energy in a planetary atmosphere is the general circulation and its meridional structure. We use a general circulation model of the atmosphere in an aquaplanet configuration with prescribed sea surface temperature and investigate the influence of the gravitational acceleration g on the structure of the circulation. For g =g0 = 9.81 ms-2 , three meridional cells exist in each hemisphere. Up to about g /g0 = 1.4 all cells increase in strength. Further increasing this ratio results in a weakening of the thermally indirect cell, such that a two- and finally a one-cell structure of the meridional circulation develops in each hemisphere. This transition is explained by the primary driver of the thermally direct Hadley cell: the diabatic heating at the equator which is proportional to g. The analysis of the energetics of the atmospheric circulation based on the Lorenz energy cycle supports this finding. For Earth-like gravitational accelerations transient eddies are primarily responsible for the meridional heat flux. For large gravitational accelerations, the direct zonal mean conversion of energy dominates the meridional heat flux.

  10. Ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. Chapter 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugata, S.

    1997-01-01

    A quantitative evaluation of climate change such as global warming is impossible without a high-quality numerical model which describes the dynamics of the climate system and the circulation of energy and materials. The Center for Climate Research - National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR-NIES) atmospheric general circulation model (hereafter, GCM for a general circulation model) has been developed to obtain such a high-quality model. The emphasis of the development has been laid on the troposphere and the lower stratosphere below about 30 km altitude. This is natural because human beings live on the Earth's surface and the condition of the lower atmosphere directly affects human life. However, the stratosphere and the upper atmosphere beyond it have recently been the focus even in investigations of climate change, because they are relevant to many issues which relate closely to tropospheric climate change, such as the ozone hole, material exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and physical interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere. This study extended the region of the CCSR-NIES GCM to the lower mesosphere (about 70 km from the surface). This is our first attempt to investigate this GCM's climatology in the upper atmosphere, although some studies for QBO in the middle and lower stratosphere had been done with the GCM

  11. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hein

    Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

  12. Simulations of the general circulation of the Martian atmosphere. I - Polar processes

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    Pollack, James B.; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James; Lee, Hilda

    1990-01-01

    Numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere general circulation are carried out for 50 simulated days, using a three-dimensional model, based on the primitive equations of meteorology, which incorporated the radiative effects of atmospheric dust on solar and thermal radiation. A large number of numerical experiments were conducted for alternative choices of seasonal date and dust optical depth. It was found that, as the dust content of the winter polar region increased, the rate of atmospheric CO2 condensation increased sharply. It is shown that the strong seasonal variation in the atmospheric dust content observed might cause a number of hemispheric asymmetries. These asymmetries include the greater prevalence of polar hoods in the northern polar region during winter, the lower albedo of the northern polar cap during spring, and the total dissipation of the northern CO2 ice cap during the warmer seasons.

  13. 3D General Circulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere of Jupiter

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    Zube, Nicholas Gerard; Zhang, Xi; Li, Cheng; Le, Tianhao

    2017-10-01

    The characteristics of Jupiter’s large-scale stratospheric circulation remain largely unknown. Detailed distributions of temperature and photochemical species have been provided by recent observations [1], but have not yet been accurately reproduced by middle atmosphere general circulation models (GCM). Jupiter’s stratosphere and upper troposphere are influenced by radiative forcing from solar insolation and infrared cooling from hydrogen and hydrocarbons, as well as waves propagating from the underlying troposphere [2]. The relative significance of radiative and mechanical forcing on stratospheric circulation is still being debated [3]. Here we present a 3D GCM of Jupiter’s atmosphere with a correlated-k radiative transfer scheme. The simulation results are compared with observations. We analyze the impact of model parameters on the stratospheric temperature distribution and dynamical features. Finally, we discuss future tracer transport and gravity wave parameterization schemes that may be able to accurately simulate the middle atmosphere dynamics of Jupiter and other giant planets.[1] Kunde et al. 2004, Science 305, 1582.[2] Zhang et al. 2013a, EGU General Assembly, EGU2013-5797-2.[3] Conrath 1990, Icarus, 83, 255-281.

  14. The GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Mean Climate and Development from MERRA to Fortuna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molod, Andrea; Takacs, Lawrence; Suarez, Max; Bacmeister, Julio; Song, In-Sun; Eichmann, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    This report is a documentation of the Fortuna version of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The GEOS-5 AGCM is currently in use in the NASA Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) for simulations at a wide range of resolutions, in atmosphere only, coupled ocean-atmosphere, and data assimilation modes. The focus here is on the development subsequent to the version that was used as part of NASA s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We present here the results of a series of 30-year atmosphere-only simulations at different resolutions, with focus on the behavior of the 1-degree resolution simulation. The details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the MERRA model version are outlined, and results of a series of 30-year, atmosphere-only climate simulations at 2-degree resolution are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in parameterizations. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used for the GMAO s atmosphere-only and coupled CMIP-5 simulations.

  15. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  16. Intercomparison of the seasonal cycle of tropical surface stress in 17 AMIP atmospheric general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saji, N.H.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Inst. of Sci., Bangalore (India). Centre for Atmos. and Oceanic Sci.

    1997-08-01

    The mean state of the tropical atmosphere is important as the nature of the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere depends nonlinearly on the basic state of the coupled system. The simulation of the annual cycle of the tropical surface wind stress by 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is examined and intercompared. The models considered were part of the atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) and were integrated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) for the decade 1979-1988. Several measures have been devised to intercompare the performance of the 17 models on global tropical as well as regional scales. Within the limits of observational uncertainties, the models under examination simulate realistic tropical area-averaged zonal and meridional annual mean stresses. This is a noteworthy improvement over older generation low resolution models which were noted for their simulation of surface stresses considerably weaker than the observations. The models also simulate realistic magnitudes of the spatial distribution of the annual mean surface stress field and are seen to reproduce realistically its observed spatial pattern. Similar features are observed in the simulations of the annual variance field. The models perform well over almost all the tropical regions apart from a few. Of these, the simulations over Somali are interesting. Over this region, the models are seen to underestimate the annual mean zonal and meridional stresses. There is also wide variance between the different models in simulating these quantities. 44 refs.

  17. Atmospheric effects of nuclar war aerosols in general circulation model simulations: Influence of smoke optical properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, S.L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Covey, C.

    1987-01-01

    A global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is modified to include radiative transfer parameterizations for the absorption and scattering of solar radiation and the absorption of thermal infrared (IR) radiation by smoke aerosols. The solar scattering modifications include a parameterization for diagnosing smoke optical properties as a function of the time- and space-dependent smoke particle radii. The aerosol IR modifications allow for both the ''grey'' absorber approximation and a broadband approximation that resolves the aerosol absorption in four spectral intervals. We examine the sensitivity of some GCM-simulated atmospheric and climatic effects to the optical properties and radiative transfer parameterizations used in studies of massive injections of smoke. Specifically, we test the model response to solar scattering versus nonscattering smoke, variations in prescribed smoke single scattering albedo and IR specific absorption, and interactive versus fixed smoke optical properties. Hypothetical nuclear war created smoke scenarios assume the July injection of 60 or 180 Tg of smoke over portions of the mid-latitude land areas of the northern hemisphere. Atmospheric transport and scavenging of the smoke are included. Nonscattering smoke cases produce roughly 40 Wm/sup -2/ more Earth-atmosphere solar irradiance absorption over the northern hemisphere, when compared to scattering smoke cases having equivalent specific absorption efficiencies. Varying the elemental carbon content of smoke over a plausible range produces a 4 0 --6 0 C change in average mid-latitude land surface temperature, and a variation of about 0.1 in zonally averaged planetary albedo in the northern hemisphere

  18. Tracer water transport and subgrid precipitation variation within atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.

    1988-03-01

    A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.

  19. Tracer water transport and subgrid precipitation variation within atmospheric general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.

    1988-01-01

    A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.

  20. Black carbon ageing in the Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Croft

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Black carbon (BC particles in the atmosphere have important impacts on climate. The amount of BC in the atmosphere must be carefully quantified to allow evaluation of the climate effects of this type of aerosol. In this study, we present the treatment of BC aerosol in the developmental version of the 4th generation Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis (CCCma atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM. The focus of this work is on the conversion of insoluble BC to soluble/mixed BC by physical and chemical ageing. Physical processes include the condensation of sulphuric and nitric acid onto the BC aerosol, and coagulation with more soluble aerosols such as sulphates and nitrates. Chemical processes that may age the BC aerosol include the oxidation of organic coatings by ozone. Four separate parameterizations of the ageing process are compared to a control simulation that assumes no ageing occurs. These simulations use 1 an exponential decay with a fixed 24h half-life, 2 a condensation and coagulation scheme, 3 an oxidative scheme, and 4 a linear combination of the latter two ageing treatments. Global BC burdens are 2.15, 0.15, 0.11, 0.21, and 0.11TgC for the control run, and four ageing schemes, respectively. The BC lifetimes are 98.1, 6.6, 5.0, 9.5, and 4.9 days, respectively. The sensitivity of modelled BC burdens, and concentrations to the factor of two uncertainty in the emissions inventory is shown to be greater than the sensitivity to the parameterization used to represent the BC ageing, except for the oxidation based parameterization. A computationally efficient parameterization that represents the processes of condensation, coagulation, and oxidation is shown to simulate BC ageing well in the CCCma AGCM. As opposed to the globally fixed ageing time scale, this treatment of BC ageing is responsive to varying atmospheric composition.

  1. Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

    2006-02-01

    Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

  2. Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

    2014-09-08

    This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

  3. Short ensembles: an efficient method for discerning climate-relevant sensitivities in atmospheric general circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5. In the first example, the method is used to characterize sensitivities of the simulated clouds to time-step length. Results show that 3-day ensembles of 20 to 50 members are sufficient to reproduce the main signals revealed by traditional 5-year simulations. A nudging technique is applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics–dynamics interaction to the detected time-step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol life cycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to find out which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. It turns out that 12-member ensembles of 10-day simulations are able to reveal the same sensitivities as seen in 4-year simulations performed in a previous study. In both cases, the ensemble method reduces the total computational time by a factor of about 15, and the turnaround time by a factor of several hundred. The efficiency of the method makes it particularly useful for the development of

  4. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model. Comparison with observations

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    Hein, R.; Dameris, M.; Schnadt, C. [and others

    2000-01-01

    An interactively coupled climate-chemistry model which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks is presented. This is the first model, which interactively combines a general circulation model based on primitive equations with a rather complex model of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, and which is computational efficient enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. The applied model version extends from the Earth's surface up to 10 hPa with a relatively high number (39) of vertical levels. We present the results of a present-day (1990) simulation and compare it to available observations. We focus on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. The current model version ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM can realistically reproduce stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to formerly applied model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their interhemispheric differences are reproduced. The consideration of the chemistry feedback on dynamics results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapor concentrations, i.e., the simulated meriodional water vapor gradient in the stratosphere is realistic. The present model version constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic trace gas emissions, and the future evolution of the ozone layer. (orig.)

  5. Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-02-01

    Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

  6. Simulations of future climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stendel, M.; Schmith, T.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.

    2001-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model to study the time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons and aerosols according to the new IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 has been used. The results of these experiments are compared to an unforced 300-year control experiment. The changes in the last three decades of the scenario simulations (2071-2100) are furthermore compared to the simulation of present-day climate (1961-1990). In accordance with previous experiments we find that greenhouse warming is reduced when aerosol effects are considered. Sulfur emissions, however, are lower than in the IS92a scenario. Consequently, the greenhouse warming effect, which leads to a bigger temperature increase than in the GSDIO experiment can outweigh the aerosol cooling effect. The result shows that there still are serious difficulties and uncertainties in this type of model simulation. Those are partially due to oversimplifications in the model, concerning the radiative properties of aerosols in particular, and therefore the indirect aerosol effect. Another inherent problem, however, is the uncertainty in the scenarios themselves. This is the case for short-lived substances with an inhomogeneous spatial and temporal distribution, such as aerosols. Therefore, on a decadal horizon, changes in the emissions of those substance can exert a significant effect on anthropogenic climate change. (LN)

  7. Atmospheric radiation measurement: A program for improving radiative forcing and feedback in general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patrinos, A.A.; Renne, D.S.; Stokes, G.M.; Ellingson, R.G.

    1991-01-01

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is a key element of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) global change research strategy. ARM represents a long-term commitment to conduct comprehensive studies of the spectral atmospheric radiative energy balance profile for a wide range of cloud conditions and surface types, and to develop the knowledge necessary to improve parameterizations of radiative processes under various cloud regimes for use in general circulation models (GCMs) and related models. The importance of the ARM program is a apparent from the results of model assessments of the impact on global climate change. Recent studies suggest that radiatively active trace gas emissions caused by human activity can lead to a global warming of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius and to important changes in water availability during the next century (Cess, et al. 1989). These broad-scale changes can be even more significant at regional levels, where large shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns are shown to occur. However, these analyses also indicate that considerable uncertainty exists in these estimates, with the manner in which cloud radiative processes are parameterized among the most significant uncertainty. Thus, although the findings have significant policy implications in assessment of global and regional climate change, their uncertainties greatly influence the policy debate. ARM's highly focused observational and analytical research is intended to accelerate improvements and reduce key uncertainties associated with the way in which GCMs treat cloud cover and cloud characteristics and the resulting radiative forcing. This paper summarizes the scientific context for ARM, ARM's experimental approach, and recent activities within the ARM program

  8. Thermospheric tides simulated by the national center for atmospheric research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model at equinox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesen, C.G.; Roble, R.G.; Ridley, E.C.

    1993-01-01

    The authors use the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model (TIGCM) to model tides and dynamics in the thermosphere. This model incorporates the latest advances in the thermosphere general circulation model. Model results emphasized the 70 degree W longitude region to overlap a series of incoherent radar scatter installations. Data and the model are available on data bases. The results of this theoretical modeling are compared with available data, and with prediction of more empirical models. In general there is broad agreement within the comparisons

  9. Longitudinal Biases in the Seychelles Dome Simulated by 34 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagura, M.; Sasaki, W.; Tozuka, T.; Luo, J.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

    2012-12-01

    The upwelling dome of the southern tropical Indian Ocean is examined by using simulated results from 34 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) including those from the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the current set of the 34 CGCMs, 12 models erroneously produce the upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin while the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (Figure 1). The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity is almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region in these models. This is in contrast with the observations that show Ekman upwelling as the cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models that produce the dome in the eastern basin, the easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall that cause shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and result in a spurious upwelling dome there. In addition, these models tend to overestimate (underestimate) the magnitude of annual (semiannual) cycle of thermocline depth variability in the dome region, which is another consequence of the easterly wind biases in boreal summer-fall. Compared to the CMIP3 models (Yokoi et al. 2009), the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes and magnitudes of annual and semiannual cycles of thermocline depth variability in the dome region. Considering the increasing need to understand regional impacts of climate modes, these results may give serious caveats to interpretation of model results and help in further model developments.; Figure 1: The longitudes of the shallowest annual-mean D20 in 5°S-12°S. The open and filled circles are for the observations and the CGCMs, respectively.

  10. Atmospheric circulation associated with extreme generalized frosts persistence in central-southern South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Gabriela V. [Centro de Investigaciones Cientificas y Transferencia de Tecnologia a la Produccion, Diamante (CICYTTTP-CONICET), Diamante, Entre Rios (Argentina); Berri, Guillermo J. [Servicio Meteorologico Nacional - CONICET, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2012-03-15

    Generalized frosts (GF) in central-southern South America have a strong impact due to their spatial extension, and they are especially important when they become persistent. This paper aims at identifying the atmospheric circulation features that determine the extreme GF persistence, i.e. very persistent and without persistence, and the differences between them, during the 1961-1990 winters. Since the GF without persistence group outnumbers the other one, two subgroups are composed with events selected from winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, respectively. Additionally, the individual event of July 1988 within the very persistent GF group is analyzed due to its exceptional persistence. GF persistence is mainly conditioned by two large-scale dynamic factors. One is the Rossby wave train propagation across the Pacific Ocean, and the other one is the location with respect to the continent and the magnitude of the confluence in the jet entrance region in subtropical latitudes. A predominantly meridional Rossby wave train propagation with a confluence region to the west of the continent prior to the event favors GF with intermediate (null) persistence depending on the greater (lesser) jet acceleration. This is conditioned by the magnitude of the confluence, which, in turn, depends on the disposition of the wave train propagation pattern. Instead, an essentially zonal propagation with a confluence region to the east of the continent favors the GF persistence for several days, yet if there is no confluence the event does not persist. The greatest persistence of an event combines the confluence/diffluence of the jet entrance/exit region, which depends on the disposition with respect to the continent of the zonally propagating Rossby wave trains. (orig.)

  11. Evaluating the skills of isotope-enabled general circulation models against in situ atmospheric water vapor isotope observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Risi, C.; Werner, M.

    2017-01-01

    The skills of isotope-enabled general circulation models are evaluated against atmospheric water vapor isotopes. We have combined in situ observations of surface water vapor isotopes spanning multiple field seasons (2010, 2011, and 2012) from the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (NEEM site: 77.45°N......: 2014). This allows us to benchmark the ability to simulate the daily water vapor isotope variations from five different simulations using isotope-enabled general circulation models. Our model-data comparison documents clear isotope biases both on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (1-11% for δ18O and 4...... boundary layer water vapor isotopes of the Baffin Bay region show strong influence on the water vapor isotopes at the NEEM deep ice core-drilling site in northwest Greenland. Our evaluation of the simulations using isotope-enabled general circulation models also documents wide intermodel spatial...

  12. Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1999-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings. Such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

  13. Improved stratospheric atmosphere forecasts in the general circulation model through a methane oxidation parametrization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Jun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climatic characteristics of tropical stratospheric methane have been well researched using various satellite data, and numerical simulations have furtherly conducted using chemical climatic models, while the impact of stratospheric methane oxidation on distribution of water vapor is not paid enough attention in general circulation models. Simulated values of water vapour in the tropical upper stratosphere, and throughout much of the extratropical stratosphere, were too low. Something must be done to remedy this deficiency in order to producing realistic stratospheric water vapor using a general circulation model including the whole stratosphere. Introduction of a simple parametrization of the upper-stratospheric moisture source due to methane oxidation and a sink due to photolysis in the mesosphere was conducted. Numerical simulations and analysis of the influence of stratospheric methane on the prediction of tropical stratospheric moisture and temperature fields were carried out. This study presents the advantages of methane oxidation parametrization in producing a realistic distribution of water vapour in the tropical stratosphere and analyzes the impact of methane chemical process on the general circulation model using two storm cases including a heavy rain in South China and a typhoon caused tropical storm.It is obvious that general circulation model with methane oxidation parametrization succeeds in simulating the water vapor and temperature in stratosphere. The simulating rain center value of contrast experiment is increased up to 10% than that of the control experiment. Introduction of methane oxidation parametrization has modified the distribution of water vapour and then producing a broadly realistic distribution of temperature. Objective weather forecast verifications have been performed using simulating results of one month, which demonstrate somewhat positive effects on the model skill. There is a certain extent impact of methane oxidation

  14. A k-distribution-based radiation code and its computational optimization for an atmospheric general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sekiguchi, Miho; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2008-01-01

    The gas absorption process scheme in the broadband radiative transfer code 'mstrn8', which is used to calculate atmospheric radiative transfer efficiently in a general circulation model, is improved. Three major improvements are made. The first is an update of the database of line absorption parameters and the continuum absorption model. The second is a change to the definition of the selection rule for gas absorption used to choose which absorption bands to include. The last is an upgrade of the optimization method used to decrease the number of quadrature points used for numerical integration in the correlated k-distribution approach, thereby realizing higher computational efficiency without losing accuracy. The new radiation package termed 'mstrnX' computes radiation fluxes and heating rates with errors less than 0.6 W/m 2 and 0.3 K/day, respectively, through the troposphere and the lower stratosphere for any standard AFGL atmospheres. A serious cold bias problem of an atmospheric general circulation model using the ancestor code 'mstrn8' is almost solved by the upgrade to 'mstrnX'

  15. Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Mogensen, Irene A.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a simulation of the climate of the last five centuries with a state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model are presented. The model has been driven with most relevant forcings, both natural (solar variability, volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic (greenhouse...... gases, sulphate aerosol, land-use changes). In contrast to previous GCM studies, we have taken into account the latitudinal dependence of volcanic aerosol and the changing land cover for a period covering several centuries. We find a clear signature of large volcanic eruptions in the simulated...

  16. Modes of North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the ECHAM1/LSG Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorita, Eduardo; Frankignoul, Claude

    1997-02-01

    The climate variability in the North Atlantic sector is investigated in a 325-yr integration of the ECHAM1/ LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. At the interannual timescale, the coupled model behaves realistically and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies arise as a response of the oceanic surface layer to the stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, with the heat exchanges both generating and damping the SST anomalies. In the ocean interior, the temperature spectra are red up to a period of about 20 years, and substantial decadal fluctuations are found in the upper kilometer or so of the water column. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two distinct quasi-oscillatory modes of ocean-atmosphere variability are identified, with dominant periods of about 20 and 10 years, respectively. The oceanic changes in both modes reflect the direct forcing by the atmosphere through anomalous air-sea fluxes and Ekman pumping, which after some delay affects the intensity of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The SST is also strongly modulated by the gyre currents. In the thermocline, the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in phase, as if caused by thermocline displacements, and they have no apparent connection with the thermohaline circulation. The 20-yr mode is the most energetic one; it is easily seen in the thermocline and can be found in SST data, but it is not detected in the atmosphere alone. As there is no evidence of positive ocean-atmosphere feedback, the 20-yr mode primarily reflects the passive response of the ocean to atmospheric fluctuations, which may be in part associated with climate anomalies appearing a few years earlier in the North Pacific. The 10-yr mode is more surface trapped in the ocean. Although the mode is most easily seen in the temperature variations of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean, it is also detected in the atmosphere alone and thus appears to be a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. In both modes

  17. Peculiarities of general atmospheric circulation above Kazakhstan and trans-bordering transfer of polluted substances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turulina, G.K.; Muradov, M.A.; Sal'nikov, V.G.; Bogacev, V.P.

    1997-01-01

    Essential information is gathered for analysis and typification of atmospheric processes observed above Kazakhstan during studied period (1964-1986). Peculiarities of atmospheric processes and trans-bordering transfer of polluted substances above Kazakhstan territory are researched. Received data indicate on actuality of the problem for Republic of Kazakhstan and necessity of signing of the International Convention on trans-bordering pollution with purpose of integration in fulfillment of International Program of observation and assessment of spreading of air pollutants in Europe. (author)

  18. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  19. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1: consistent simulation of ozone from the surface to the mesosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jöckel

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The new Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy describes atmospheric chemistry and meteorological processes in a modular framework, following strict coding standards. It has been coupled to the ECHAM5 general circulation model, which has been slightly modified for this purpose. A 90-layer model setup up to 0.01 hPa was used at spectral T42 resolution to simulate the lower and middle atmosphere. With the high vertical resolution the model simulates the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The model meteorology has been tested to check the influence of the changes to ECHAM5 and the radiation interactions with the new representation of atmospheric composition. In the simulations presented here a Newtonian relaxation technique was applied in the tropospheric part of the domain to weakly nudge the model towards the analysed meteorology during the period 1998–2005. This allows an efficient and direct evaluation with satellite and in-situ data. It is shown that the tropospheric wave forcing of the stratosphere in the model suffices to reproduce major stratospheric warming events leading e.g. to the vortex split over Antarctica in 2002. Characteristic features such as dehydration and denitrification caused by the sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud particles and ozone depletion during winter and spring are simulated well, although ozone loss in the lower polar stratosphere is slightly underestimated. The model realistically simulates stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes as indicated by comparisons with satellite and in situ measurements. The evaluation of tropospheric chemistry presented here focuses on the distributions of ozone, hydroxyl radicals, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen compounds. In spite of minor shortcomings, mostly related to the relatively coarse T42 resolution and the neglect of inter-annual changes in biomass burning emissions, the main characteristics of the trace gas distributions are generally reproduced well. The MESSy

  20. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  1. Assessment of two physical parameterization schemes for desert dust emissions in an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astitha, M.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-04-01

    Atmospheric particulate matter and more specific desert dust has been the topic of numerous research studies in the past due to the wide range of impacts in the environment and climate and the uncertainty of characterizing and quantifying these impacts in a global scale. In this work we present two physical parameterizations of the desert dust production that have been incorporated in the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). The scope of this work is to assess the impact of the two physical parameterizations in the global distribution of desert dust and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using either technique. The dust concentration and deposition has been evaluated using the AEROCOM dust dataset for the year 2000 and data from the MODIS and MISR satellites as well as sun-photometer data from the AERONET network was used to compare the modelled aerosol optical depth with observations. The implementation of the two parameterizations and the simulations using relatively high spatial resolution (T106~1.1deg) has highlighted the large spatial heterogeneity of the dust emission sources as well as the importance of the input parameters (soil size and texture, vegetation, surface wind speed). Also, sensitivity simulations with the nudging option using reanalysis data from ECMWF and without nudging have showed remarkable differences for some areas. Both parameterizations have revealed the difficulty of simulating all arid regions with the same assumptions and mechanisms. Depending on the arid region, each emission scheme performs more or less satisfactorily which leads to the necessity of treating each desert differently. Even though this is a quite different task to accomplish in a global model, some recommendations are given and ideas for future improvements.

  2. Impact of absorbing aerosols on the simulation of climate over the Indian region in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chakraborty

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (such as soot on the climate over the Indian region has been studied using the NCMRWF general circulation model. The absorbing aerosols increase shortwave radiative heating of the lower troposphere and reduce the heating at the surface. These effects have been incorporated as heating of the lower troposphere (up to 700hPa and cooling over the continental surface based on INDOEX measurements. The heating effect is constant in the pre-monsoon season and reduces to zero during the monsoon season. It is shown that even in the monsoon season when the aerosol forcing is zero, there is an overall increase in rainfall and a reduction in surface temperature over the Indian region. The rainfall averaged over the Tropics shows a small reduction in most of the months during the January to September period. The impact of aerosol forcing, the model's sensitivity to this forcing and its interaction with model-physics has been studied by changing the cumulus parameterization from the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS scheme to the Kuo scheme. During the pre-monsoon season the major changes in precipitation occur in the oceanic Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, where both the schemes show an increase in precipitation. This result is similar to that reported in Chung2002. On the other hand, during the monsoon season the changes in precipitation in the continental region are different in the SAS and Kuo schemes. It is shown that the heating due to absorbing aerosols changes the vertical moist-static stability of the atmosphere. The difference in the precipitation changes in the two cumulus schemes is on account of the different responses in the two parameterization schemes to changes in vertical stability. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (tropical meteorology; precipitation

  3. Some lessons and thoughts from development of an old-fashioned high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohfuchi, Wataru; Enomoto, Takeshi; Yoshioka, Mayumi K.; Takaya, Koutarou

    2014-05-01

    Some high-resolution simulations with a conventional atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were conducted right after the first Earth Simulator started operating in the spring of 2002. More simulations with various resolutions followed. The AGCM in this study, AFES (Agcm For the Earth Simulator), is a primitive equation spectral transform method model with a cumulus convection parameterization. In this presentation, some findings from comparisons between high and low-resolution simulations, and some future perspectives of old-fashioned AGCMs will be discussed. One obvious advantage of increasing resolution is capability of resolving the fine structures of topography and atmospheric flow. By increasing resolution from T39 (about 320 km horizontal grid interval) to T79 (160 km), to T159 (80 km) to T319 (40 km), topographic precipitation over Japan becomes increasingly realistic. This feature is necessary for climate and weather studies involving both global and local aspects. In order to resolve submesoscale (about 100 km horizontal scale) atmospheric circulation, about 10-km grid interval is necessary. Comparing T1279 (10 km) simulations with T319 ones, it is found that, for example, the intensity of heavy rain associated with Baiu front and the central pressure of typhoon become more realistic. These realistic submesoscale phenomena should have impact on larger-sale flow through dynamics and thermodynamics. An interesting finding by increasing horizontal resolution of a conventional AGCM is that some cumulus convection parameterizations, such as Arakawa-Schubert type scheme, gradually stop producing precipitation, while some others, such as Emanuel type, do not. With the former, the grid condensation increases with the model resolution to compensate. Which characteristics are more desirable is arguable but it is an important feature one has to consider when developing a high-resolution conventional AGCM. Many may think that conventional primitive equation

  4. Connection of the stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part II: interdecadal variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Climate Prediction Center (Room 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (Room 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-01-15

    The interdecadal variation of the association of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and with the general circulation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is examined using the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, as well as other observation-based analyses. It is found that the relationship between the QBO and tropical SSTA changed once around 1978-1980, and again in 1993-1995. During 1966-1974, negative correlation between the QBO and NINO3.4 indices reached its maximum when the NINO3.4 index lagged the QBO by less than 6 months. Correspondingly, the positive correlations were observed when the NINO3.4 index led the QBO by about 11-13 months or lagged by about 12-18 months. However, maximum negative correlations were shifted from the NINO3.4 index lagging the QBO by about 0-6 months during 1966-1974 to about 3-12 months during 1985-1992. During 1975-1979, both the negative and positive correlations were relatively small and the QBO and ENSO were practically unrelated to each other. The phase-based QBO life cycle composites also confirm that, on average, there are two phase (6-7 months) delay in the evolution of the QBO-associated anomalous Walker circulation, tropical SST, atmospheric stability, and troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature anomalies during 1980-1994 in comparison with those in 1957-1978. The interdecadal variation of the association between the QBO and the troposphere variability may be largely due to the characteristic change of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The irregularity of the QBO may play a secondary role in the interdecadal variation of the association. (orig.)

  5. Evaluation of North Eurasian snow-off dates in the ECHAM5.4 atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Räisänen

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The timing of springtime end of snowmelt (snow-off date in northern Eurasia in version 5.4 of the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM is evaluated through comparison with a snow-off date data set based on space-borne microwave radiometer measurements and with Russian snow course data. ECHAM5 reproduces well the observed gross geographical pattern of snow-off dates, with earliest snow-off (in March in the Baltic region and latest snow-off (in June in the Taymyr Peninsula and in northeastern parts of the Russian Far East. The primary biases are (1 a delayed snow-off in southeastern Siberia (associated with too low springtime temperature and too high surface albedo, in part due to insufficient shielding by canopy; and (2 an early bias in the western and northern parts of northern Eurasia. Several sensitivity experiments were conducted, where biases in simulated atmospheric circulation were corrected through nudging and/or the treatment of surface albedo was modified. While this alleviated some of the model biases in snow-off dates, 2 m temperature and surface albedo, especially the early bias in snow-off in the western parts of northern Eurasia proved very robust and was actually larger in the nudged runs. A key issue underlying the snow-off biases in ECHAM5 is that snowmelt occurs at too low temperatures. Very likely, this is related to the treatment of the surface energy budget. On one hand, the surface temperature Ts is not computed separately for the snow-covered and snow-free parts of the grid cells, which prevents Ts from rising above 0 °C before all snow has vanished. Consequently, too much of the surface net radiation is consumed in melting snow and too little in heating the air. On the other hand, ECHAM5 does not include a canopy layer. Thus, while the albedo reduction due to canopy is accounted for, the shielding of snow on ground by the overlying canopy is not considered, which leaves too much solar radiation available for

  6. Assessing the Tangent Linear Behaviour of Common Tracer Transport Schemes and Their Use in a Linearised Atmospheric General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdaway, Daniel; Kent, James

    2015-01-01

    The linearity of a selection of common advection schemes is tested and examined with a view to their use in the tangent linear and adjoint versions of an atmospheric general circulation model. The schemes are tested within a simple offline one-dimensional periodic domain as well as using a simplified and complete configuration of the linearised version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). All schemes which prevent the development of negative values and preserve the shape of the solution are confirmed to have nonlinear behaviour. The piecewise parabolic method (PPM) with certain flux limiters, including that used by default in GEOS-5, is found to support linear growth near the shocks. This property can cause the rapid development of unrealistically large perturbations within the tangent linear and adjoint models. It is shown that these schemes with flux limiters should not be used within the linearised version of a transport scheme. The results from tests using GEOS-5 show that the current default scheme (a version of PPM) is not suitable for the tangent linear and adjoint model, and that using a linear third-order scheme for the linearised model produces better behaviour. Using the third-order scheme for the linearised model improves the correlations between the linear and non-linear perturbation trajectories for cloud liquid water and cloud liquid ice in GEOS-5.

  7. Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tharammal

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To understand the validity of δ18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM. A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST, and orbital parameters were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and δ18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and δ18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3. Large reductions in δ18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the δ18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

  8. Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Voigt

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (~635 million years before present with the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This is the most sophisticated model ever applied to Snowball initiation. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global-mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI, whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI is prevented by doubling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global-mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. While uncertainties in important processes and parameters such as clouds and sea-ice albedo suggest that the Snowball Earth bifurcation point differs between climate models, our results contradict previous findings that Snowball Earth initiation would require much stronger forcings.

  9. EOP MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution for the...

  10. Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-01-15

    The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. (orig.)

  11. Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Bohua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kinter, James L.; Wu, Zhaohua; Kumar, Arun

    2012-01-01

    The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  12. Uranus atmospheric dynamics and circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Michael; Beebe, Reta F.; Conrath, Barney J.; Hinson, David P.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

    1991-01-01

    The observations, models, and theories relevant to the atmospheric dynamics and meteorology of Uranus are discussed. The available models for the large-scale heat transport and atmospheric dynamics as well as diagnostic interpretations of the Voyager data are reviewed. Some pertinent ideas and questions regarding the global circulation balance are considered, partly in comparison with other planetary atmospheres. The available data indicate atmospheric rotation at midlatitudes nearly 200 m/s faster than that of the planetary magnetic field. Analysis of the dynamical deformation of the shape and size of isobaric surfaces measured by the Voyager radio-occultation experiment suggests a subrotating equator at comparable altitudes. Infrared temperature retrievals above the cloud deck indicate a smaller equator-to-pole contrast than expected for purely radiative-convective equilibrium, but show local variations implying a latitudinally correlated decrease with altitude in the cloud-tracked wind.

  13. Role of the Atmospheric General Circulation on the Temporal Variability of the Aerosol Distribution over Dakar (Senegal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senghor, Habib; Machu, Eric; Hourdin, Frederic; Thierno Gaye, Amadou; Gueye, Moussa; Simina Drame, Mamadou

    2016-04-01

    The natural or anthropogenic aerosols play an important role on the climate system and the human health through their optical and physical properties. To evaluate the potential impacts of these aerosols, it is necessary to better understand their temporal variability in relation with the atmospheric ciculation. Some previous case studies have pointed out the influence of the sea-breeze circulation on the vertical distribution of the aerosols along the Western African coast. In the present work, Lidar (Ceilometer CL31; located at Dakar) data are used for the period 2012-2014 together with Level-3 data from CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) between 2007 and 2014 for studying the seasonal cycle of the vertical distribution of aerosols over Dakar (17.5°W, 14.74°N). Both instruments show strong seasonal variability with a maximum of aerosol occurrence in May over Dakar. The CL31 shows a crucial impact of sea-breeze circulation on the diurnal cycle of the Mixed Atmospheric Boundary Layer and a strong dust signal in spring in the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) located between 500 and 1000 m altitudes over Dakar.

  14. Anomaly General Circulation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarra, Antonio

    The feasibility of the anomaly model is assessed using barotropic and baroclinic models. In the barotropic case, both a stationary and a time-dependent model has been formulated and constructed, whereas only the stationary, linear case is considered in the baroclinic case. Results from the barotropic model indicate that a relation between the stationary solution and the time-averaged non-linear solution exists. The stationary linear baroclinic solution can therefore be considered with some confidence. The linear baroclinic anomaly model poses a formidable mathematical problem because it is necessary to solve a gigantic linear system to obtain the solution. A new method to find solution of large linear system, based on a projection on the Krylov subspace is shown to be successful when applied to the linearized baroclinic anomaly model. The scheme consists of projecting the original linear system on the Krylov subspace, thereby reducing the dimensionality of the matrix to be inverted to obtain the solution. With an appropriate setting of the damping parameters, the iterative Krylov method reaches a solution even using a Krylov subspace ten times smaller than the original space of the problem. This generality allows the treatment of the important problem of linear waves in the atmosphere. A larger class (nonzonally symmetric) of basic states can now be treated for the baroclinic primitive equations. These problem leads to large unsymmetrical linear systems of order 10000 and more which can now be successfully tackled by the Krylov method. The (R7) linear anomaly model is used to investigate extensively the linear response to equatorial and mid-latitude prescribed heating. The results indicate that the solution is deeply affected by the presence of the stationary waves in the basic state. The instability of the asymmetric flows, first pointed out by Simmons et al. (1983), is active also in the baroclinic case. However, the presence of baroclinic processes modifies the

  15. Modeling the Dynamics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Antarctic Plateau With a General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.; Gallée, Hubert; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Beaumet, Julien

    2018-01-01

    Observations evidence extremely stable boundary layers (SBL) over the Antarctic Plateau and sharp regime transitions between weakly and very stable conditions. Representing such features is a challenge for climate models. This study assesses the modeling of the dynamics of the boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau in the LMDZ general circulation model. It uses 1 year simulations with a stretched-grid over Dome C. The model is nudged with reanalyses outside of the Dome C region such as simulations can be directly compared to in situ observations. We underline the critical role of the downward longwave radiation for modeling the surface temperature. LMDZ reasonably represents the near-surface seasonal profiles of wind and temperature but strong temperature inversions are degraded by enhanced turbulent mixing formulations. Unlike ERA-Interim reanalyses, LMDZ reproduces two SBL regimes and the regime transition, with a sudden increase in the near-surface inversion with decreasing wind speed. The sharpness of the transition depends on the stability function used for calculating the surface drag coefficient. Moreover, using a refined vertical grid leads to a better reversed "S-shaped" relationship between the inversion and the wind. Sudden warming events associated to synoptic advections of warm and moist air are also well reproduced. Near-surface supersaturation with respect to ice is not allowed in LMDZ but the impact on the SBL structure is moderate. Finally, climate simulations with the free model show that the recommended configuration leads to stronger inversions and winds over the ice-sheet. However, the near-surface wind remains underestimated over the slopes of East-Antarctica.

  16. Numerical simulation and analysis of impact of non-orographic gravity waves drag of middle atmosphere in framework of a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, J.; Wang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Gravity wave drag (GWD) is among the drivers of meridional overturning in the middle atmosphere, also known as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, and of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The small spatial scales and complications due to wave breaking require their effects to be parameterised. GWD parameterizations are usually divided into two parts, orographic and non-orographic. The basic dynamical and physical processes of the middle atmosphere and the mechanism of the interactions between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere were studied in the frame of a general circulation model. The model for the troposphere was expanded to a global model considering middle atmosphere with the capability of describing the basic processes in the middle atmosphere and the troposphere-middle atmosphere interactions. Currently, it is too costly to include full non-hydrostatic and rotational wave dynamics in an operational parameterization. The hydrostatic non-rotational wave dynamics which allow an efficient implementation that is suitably fast for operation. The simplified parameterization of non-orographic GWD follows from the WM96 scheme in which a framework is developed using conservative propagation of gravity waves, critical level filtering, and non-linear dissipation. In order to simulate and analysis the influence of non-orographic GWD on the stratospheric wind and temperature fields, experiments using Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) event case occurred in January 2013 were carried out, and results of objective weather forecast verifications of the two months period were compared in detail. The verification of monthly mean of forecast anomaly correlation (ACC) and root mean square (RMS) errors shows consistently positive impact of non-orographic GWD on skill score of forecasting for the three to eight days, both in the stratosphere and troposphere, and visible positive impact on prediction of the stratospheric wind and temperature fields. Numerical simulation

  17. The balance of kinetic and total energy simulated by the OSU two-level atmospheric general circulation model for January and July

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.-T.; Gates, W. L.; Kim, J.-W.

    1984-01-01

    A three-year simulation which prescribes seasonally varying solar radiation and sea surface temperature is the basis of the present study of the horizontal structure of the balances of kinetic and total energy simulated by Oregon State University's two-level atmospheric general circulation model. Mechanisms responsible for the local energy changes are identified, and the energy balance requirement's fulfilment is examined. In January, the vertical integral of the total energy shows large amounts of external heating over the North Pacific and Atlantic, together with cooling over most of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere. In July, an overall seasonal reversal is found. Both seasons are also characterized by strong energy flux divergence in the tropics, in association with the poleward transport of heat and momentum.

  18. Simulations of the September 1987 lower thermospheric tides with the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesen, C.G.; Roble, R.G.

    1991-01-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation model (TIGCM) was used to simulate incoherent scatter radar observations of the lower thermosphere tides during the first Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study (LTCS) campaign, September 21-26, 1987. The TIGCM utilized time-varying histories of the model input fields obtained from the World Data Center for the LTCS period. These model inputs included solar flux, total hemispheric power, solar wind data from which the cross-polar-cap potential was derived, and geomagnetic K p index. Calculations were made for the semidiurnal ion temperatures and horizontal neutral winds at locations representative of Arecibo, Millstone Hill, and Sondrestrom. The diurnal tides at Sondrestrom were also simulated. Tidal inputs to the TIGCM lower boundary were obtained from the middle atmosphere model of Forbes and Vial (1989). The TIGCM tidal structures are in fair general agreement with the observations. The amplitudes tended to be better simulated than the phases, and the mid- and high-latitude locations are simulated better than the low-latitude thermosphere. This may indicate a need to incorporate coupling of the neutral atmosphere and ionosphere with the E region dynamo in the equatorial region to obtain a better representation of low-latitude thermospheric tides. The model simulations were used to investigate the daily variability of the tides due to the geomagnetic activity occurring during this period. In general, the ion temperatures were predicted to be affected more than the winds, and the diurnal components more than the semidiurnal. The effects are typically largest at high latitudes and higher altitudes, but discernible differences were produced at low latitudes

  19. A strategy for testing the impact of clouds on the shortwave radiation budge of general circulation models: A prototype for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cess, R.D.

    1994-01-01

    Cloud-climate interactions are one of the greatest uncertainties in contemporary general circulation models (GCMs), and this study has focused on one aspect of this. Specifically, combined satellite and near-surface shortwave (SW) flux measurements have been used to test the impact of clouds on the SW radiation budgets of two GCMs. Concentration is initially on SW rather than longwave (LW) radiation because, in one of the GCMs used in this study an SW radiation inconsistency causes a LW inconsistency. The surface data consist of near-surface insolation measured by the upward facing pyranometer at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory tower. The satellite data consist of top of the atmosphere (TOA) albedo data, collocated with the tower location, as determined from the GOES SW spin-scan radiometer. Measurements are made every half hour, with hourly means taken by averaging successive measurements. The combined data are for a 21-day period encompassing 28 June through 18 July 1987 and consist of 202 combined albedo/insolation measurements

  20. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lammel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

    The change of the geographic distribution of the PCB mixture reflects the sources and sinks' evolvement over time. Globally, secondary emissions (re-volatilisation from surfaces are on the long term increasingly gaining importance over primary emissions. Secondary emissions are most important for the congeners with 5–6 chlorine atoms. Correspondingly, the levels of these congeners are predicted to decrease slowest. Changes in congener mixture composition (fractionation are characterized both geographically and temporally. In high latitudes enrichment of the lighter, less persistent congeners and more delayed decreasing levels in response to decreasing emissions are found. The delivery of the contaminants to high latitudes is predicted to be more efficient than previously suggested. The results suggest furthermore that the effectiveness of emission control measures may significantly vary among substances. The trends of decline of organic contaminant levels in the abiotic environmental media do not only vary with latitude (slow in high latitudes, but do also show longitudinal gradients.

  1. On testing the significance of atmospheric response to smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires using the Los Alamos general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, C.J.; Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    1994-07-01

    The response of the Los Alamos atmospheric general circulation model to the smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires set in 1991 is examined. The model has an interactive soot transport module that uses a Lagrangian tracer particle scheme. The statistical significance of the results is evaluated using a methodology based on the classic Student`s t test. Among various estimated smoke emission rates and associated visible absorption coefficients, the worst- and best-case scenarios are selected. In each of the scenarios, an ensemble of 10 30-day June simulations are conducted with the smoke and are compared to the same 10 June simulations without the smoke. The results of the worst-case scneario show that a statistically significant wave train pattern propagates eastward-poleward downstream from the source. The signals favorably compare with the observed climate anomalies in summer 1991, albeit some possible El Nino-Southern Oscillation effects were involved in the actual climate. The results of the best-case (i.e., least-impact) scenario show that the significance is rather small but that its general pattern is quite similar to that in the worst-case scenario.

  2. On testing the significance of atmospheric response to smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires using the Los Alamos general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chih-Yue Jim Kao; Glatzmaier, G.A.; Malone, R.C. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1994-07-20

    The response of the Los Alamos atmospheric general circulation model to the smoke from the Kuwaiti oil fires set in 1991 is examined. The model has an interactive soot transport module that uses a Lagrangian tracer particle scheme. The statistical significance of the results is evaluated using a methodology based on the classic Student`s t test. Among various estimated smoke emission rates and associated visible absorption coefficients, the worst- and best-case scenarios are selected. In each of the scenarios, an ensemble of 10, 30-day June simulations are conducted with the smoke, and are compared to the same 10 June simulations without the smoke. The results of the worst-case scenario show that a statistically significant wave train pattern propagates eastward-poleward downstream from the source. The signals favorably compare with the observed climate anomalies in summer 1991, albeit some possible El Nino-Southern Oscillation effects were involved in the actual climate. The results of the best-case (i.e., least-impact) scenario show that the significance is rather small but that its general pattern is quite similar to that in the worst-case scenario. 24 refs., 5 figs.

  3. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model with Chemistry for the CRAY T3E: Design, Performance Optimization and Coupling to an Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrara, John D.; Drummond, Leroy A.; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Spahr, Joseph A.

    1998-01-01

    The design, implementation and performance optimization on the CRAY T3E of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) which includes the transport of, and chemical reactions among, an arbitrary number of constituents is reviewed. The parallel implementation is based on a two-dimensional (longitude and latitude) data domain decomposition. Initial optimization efforts centered on minimizing the impact of substantial static and weakly-dynamic load imbalances among processors through load redistribution schemes. Recent optimization efforts have centered on single-node optimization. Strategies employed include loop unrolling, both manually and through the compiler, the use of an optimized assembler-code library for special function calls, and restructuring of parts of the code to improve data locality. Data exchanges and synchronizations involved in coupling different data-distributed models can account for a significant fraction of the running time. Therefore, the required scattering and gathering of data must be optimized. In systems such as the T3E, there is much more aggregate bandwidth in the total system than in any particular processor. This suggests a distributed design. The design and implementation of a such distributed 'Data Broker' as a means to efficiently couple the components of our climate system model is described.

  4. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  5. Numerical simulation of the circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourdin, F.; Levan, P.; Talagrand, O.; Courtin, Regis; Gautier, Daniel; Mckay, Christopher P.

    1992-01-01

    A three dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) of Titan's atmosphere is described. Initial results obtained with an economical two dimensional (2D) axisymmetric version of the model presented a strong superrotation in the upper stratosphere. Because of this result, a more general numerical study of superrotation was started with a somewhat different version of the GCM. It appears that for a slowly rotating planet which strongly absorbs solar radiation, circulation is dominated by global equator to pole Hadley circulation and strong superrotation. The theoretical study of this superrotation is discussed. It is also shown that 2D simulations systemically lead to instabilities which make 2D models poorly adapted to numerical simulation of Titan's (or Venus) atmosphere.

  6. A Thermodynamically General Theory for Convective Circulations and Vortices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renno, N. O.

    2007-12-01

    Convective circulations and vortices are common features of atmospheres that absorb low-entropy-energy at higher temperatures than they reject high-entropy-energy to space. These circulations range from small to planetary-scale and play an important role in the vertical transport of heat, momentum, and tracer species. Thus, the development of theoretical models for convective phenomena is important to our understanding of many basic features of planetary atmospheres. A thermodynamically general theory for convective circulations and vortices is proposed. The theory includes irreversible processes and quantifies the pressure drop between the environment and any point in a convective updraft. The article's main result is that the proposed theory provides an expression for the pressure drop along streamlines or streamtubes that is a generalization of Bernoulli's equation to convective circulations. We speculate that the proposed theory not only explains the intensity, but also shed light on other basic features of convective circulations and vortices.

  7. A study into the effect of the diurnal tide on the structure of the background mesosphere and thermosphere using the new coupled middle atmosphere and thermosphere (CMAT general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Harris

    Full Text Available A new coupled middle atmosphere and thermosphere general circulation model has been developed, and some first results are presented. An investigation into the effects of the diurnal tide upon the mean composition, dynamics and energetics was carried out for equinox conditions. Previous studies have shown that tides deplete mean atomic oxygen in the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere due to an increased recombination in the tidal displaced air parcels. The model runs presented suggest that the mean residual circulation associated with the tidal dissipation also plays an important role. Stronger lower boundary tidal forcing was seen to increase the equatorial local diurnal maximum of atomic oxygen and the associated 0(1S 557.7 nm green line volume emission rates. The changes in the mean background temperature structure were found to correspond to changes in the mean circulation and exothermic chemical heating.

    Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (middle atmosphere – composition and chemistry Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmosphere dynamics; waves and tides

  8. A study into the effect of the diurnal tide on the structure of the background mesosphere and thermosphere using the new coupled middle atmosphere and thermosphere (CMAT general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Harris

    2002-02-01

    Full Text Available A new coupled middle atmosphere and thermosphere general circulation model has been developed, and some first results are presented. An investigation into the effects of the diurnal tide upon the mean composition, dynamics and energetics was carried out for equinox conditions. Previous studies have shown that tides deplete mean atomic oxygen in the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere due to an increased recombination in the tidal displaced air parcels. The model runs presented suggest that the mean residual circulation associated with the tidal dissipation also plays an important role. Stronger lower boundary tidal forcing was seen to increase the equatorial local diurnal maximum of atomic oxygen and the associated 0(1S 557.7 nm green line volume emission rates. The changes in the mean background temperature structure were found to correspond to changes in the mean circulation and exothermic chemical heating.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (middle atmosphere – composition and chemistry Meterology and atmospheric dynamics (middle atmosphere dynamics; waves and tides

  9. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  10. Particle pollution changes the atmospheric circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristjansson, Jon Egill; Iversen, Trond; Kirkevaag, Alf; Seland, Oeyvind; Debernard, Jens; Roeed, Lars Petter

    2002-01-01

    Industrial emissions and combustion of fossil fuels create large amounts of sulfate- and carbon containing soot particles. These mix with natural particles to change the natural aerosols. Such anthropogenic changes in the aerosols may have a great impact on the climate of the earth. Altered properties of the aerosols may change the atmosphere's absorption and reflection of solar radiation and contribute to heating or cooling. This is the direct effect. Changes in the properties of aerosols may also affect the number and size of recently formed cloud droplets. This may change the ability of the clouds to reflect solar radiation and to produce precipitation. This is the indirect effect. Recent research at the University of Oslo shows that anthropogenic particles significantly change the atmospheric circulation, in particular in the tropics, but also at European latitudes

  11. Atmospheric Circulations of Rocky Planets as Heat Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koll, D. D. B.

    2017-12-01

    Rocky planets are extremely common in the galaxy and include Earth, Mars, Venus, and hundreds of exoplanets. To understand and compare the climates of these planets, we need theories that are general enough to accommodate drastically different atmospheric and planetary properties. Unfortunately, few such theories currently exist.For Earth, there is a well-known principle that its atmosphere resembles a heat engine - the atmosphere absorbs heat near the surface, at a hot temperature, and emits heat to space in the upper troposphere, at a cold temperature, which allows it to perform work and balance dissipative processes such as friction. However, previous studies also showed that Earth's hydrological cycle uses up a large fraction of the heat engine's work output, which makes it difficult to view other atmospheres as heat engines.In this work I extend the heat engine principle from Earth towards other rocky planets. I explore both dry and moist atmospheres in an idealized general circulation model (GCM), and quantify their work output using entropy budgets. First, I show that convection and turbulent heat diffusion are important entropy sources in dry atmospheres. I develop a scaling that accounts for its effects, which allows me to predict the strength of frictional dissipation in dry atmospheres. There are strong parallels between my scaling and so-called potential intensity theory, which is a seminal theory for understanding tropical cyclones on Earth. Second, I address how moisture affects atmospheric heat engines. Moisture modifies both the thermodynamic properties of air and releases latent heat when water vapor condenses. I explore the impact of both effects, and use numerical simulations to explore the difference between dry and moist atmospheric circulations across a wide range of climates.

  12. Response in atmospheric circulation and sources of Greenland precipitation to glacial boundary conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langen, Peter Lang; Vinther, Bo Møllesøe

    2009-01-01

    The response in northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the resulting changes in moisture sources for Greenland precipitation to glacial boundary conditions are studied in NCAR's CCM3 atmospheric general circulation model fitted with a moisture tracking functionality. We employ both...... seasonality, condensation temperatures and source temperatures are assessed. Udgivelsesdato: June 2009...

  13. Nucla circulating atmospheric fluidized bed demonstration project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, Raymond E.

    1991-10-01

    Colorado-Ute Electric Association began a study to evaluate options for upgrading and extending the life of its Nucla power station in 1982. Located in southwestern Colorado near the town of Nucla, this station was commissioned in 1959 with a local bituminous coal as its design fuel for three identical stoker-fired units, each rated at 12.6 MW(e). Poor station efficiency, high fuel costs, and spiraling boiler maintenance costs forced the Nucla Station into low priority in the CUEA dispatch order as early as 1981. Among the options CUEA considered was to serve as a host utility to demonstrate Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion (AFBC) technology. The anticipated environmental benefits and apparent attractive economics of a circulating AFBC led to Colorado-Ute's decision to proceed with the design and construction of a demonstration project in 1984 at the Nucla facility.

  14. Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model. 2; New Insights into Modeling the Pre-Industrial Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenfell, J. Lee; Shindell, D. T.; Koch, D.; Rind, D.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

  15. Treatment of cloud radiative effects in general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, W.C.; Dudek, M.P.; Liang, X.Z.; Ding, M. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    We participate in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program with two objectives: (1) to improve the general circulation model (GCM) cloud/radiation treatment with a focus on cloud verticle overlapping and layer cloud optical properties, and (2) to study the effects of cloud/radiation-climate interaction on GCM climate simulations. This report summarizes the project progress since the Fourth ARM Science Team meeting February 28-March 4, 1994, in Charleston, South Carolina.

  16. Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature

    OpenAIRE

    Jansen, Malte F.

    2016-01-01

    To understand climatic swings between glacial and interglacial climates we need to explain the observed fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which in turn are most likely driven by changes in the deep ocean circulation. This study presents a model for differences in the deep ocean circulation between glacial and interglacial climates consistent with both our physical understanding and various proxy observations. The results suggest that observed changes in ocean circulation and s...

  17. Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

    2009-04-01

    Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological

  18. NUCLA Circulating Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Demonstration Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-02-01

    The objective of this DOE Cooperative Agreement is to conduct a cost-shared clean coal technology project to demonstrate the feasibility of circulating fluidized bed combustion technology and to evaluate economic, environmental, and operational benefits of CFB steam generators on a utility scale. At the conclusion of the Phase 2 program, testing related to satisfying these objectives was completed. Data analysis and reporting are scheduled for completion by October 1991. (VC)

  19. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, M.K. (Maarten Krispijn) van

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with

  20. NUCLA Circulating Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Demonstration Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, Raymond E.; Heller, Thomas J.; Bush, Stuart A.

    1991-01-01

    This Annual Report on Colorado-Ute Electric Association's NUCLA Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) Demonstration Program covers the period from February 1987 through December 1988. The outline for presentation in this report includes a summary of unit operations along with individual sections covering progress in study plan areas that commenced during this reporting period. These include cold-mode shakedown and calibration, plant commercial performance statistics, unit start-up (cold), coal and limestone preparation and handling, ash handling system performance and operating experience, tubular air heater, baghouse operation and performance, materials monitoring, and reliability monitoring. During this reporting period, the coal-mode shakedown and calibration plan was completed. (VC)

  1. Atmospheric stability and atmospheric circulation in Athens, Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Synodinou, B.M.; Petrakis, M.; Kassomenos, P.; Lykoudis, S.

    1996-01-01

    In the evaluation and study of atmospheric pollution reference is always made to the stability criteria. These criteria, usually represented as functions of different meteorological data such as wind speed and direction, temperature, solar radiation, etc., play a very important role in the investigation of different parameters that affect the build up of pollution episodes mainly in urban areas. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the atmospheric stability criteria based on measurements obtained from two locations in and nearby Athens. The atmospheric stability is then examined along with the other meteorological parameters

  2. Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Grosfeld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960. Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

  3. Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Malte F

    2017-01-03

    Earth's climate has undergone dramatic shifts between glacial and interglacial time periods, with high-latitude temperature changes on the order of 5-10 °C. These climatic shifts have been associated with major rearrangements in the deep ocean circulation and stratification, which have likely played an important role in the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide swings by affecting the partitioning of carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mechanisms by which the deep ocean circulation changed, however, are still unclear and represent a major challenge to our understanding of glacial climates. This study shows that various inferred changes in the deep ocean circulation and stratification between glacial and interglacial climates can be interpreted as a direct consequence of atmospheric temperature differences. Colder atmospheric temperatures lead to increased sea ice cover and formation rate around Antarctica. The associated enhanced brine rejection leads to a strongly increased deep ocean stratification, consistent with high abyssal salinities inferred for the last glacial maximum. The increased stratification goes together with a weakening and shoaling of the interhemispheric overturning circulation, again consistent with proxy evidence for the last glacial. The shallower interhemispheric overturning circulation makes room for slowly moving water of Antarctic origin, which explains the observed middepth radiocarbon age maximum and may play an important role in ocean carbon storage.

  4. Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

    2018-04-01

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

  5. The ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The ECHAM model has been developed from the ECMWF model (cycle 31, November 1988). It contains several changes, mostly in the parameterization, in order to adjust the model for climate simulations. The technical details of the ECHAM operational model are described. (orig./KW)

  6. [Treatment of cloud radiative effects in general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.C.

    1993-01-01

    This is a renewal proposal for an on-going project of the Department of Energy (DOE)/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The objective of the ARM Program is to improve the treatment of radiation-cloud in GCMs so that reliable predictions of the timing and magnitude of greenhouse gas-induced global warming and regional responses can be made. The ARM Program supports two research areas: (I) The modeling and analysis of data related to the parameterization of clouds and radiation in general circulation models (GCMs); and (II) the development of advanced instrumentation for both mapping the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere and high accuracy/precision radiometric observations. The present project conducts research in area (I) and focuses on GCM treatment of cloud life cycle, optical properties, and vertical overlapping. The project has two tasks: (1) Development and Refinement of GCM Radiation-Cloud Treatment Using ARM Data; and (2) Validation of GCM Radiation-Cloud Treatment

  7. The epistemological status of general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehle, Craig

    2018-03-01

    Forecasts of both likely anthropogenic effects on climate and consequent effects on nature and society are based on large, complex software tools called general circulation models (GCMs). Forecasts generated by GCMs have been used extensively in policy decisions related to climate change. However, the relation between underlying physical theories and results produced by GCMs is unclear. In the case of GCMs, many discretizations and approximations are made, and simulating Earth system processes is far from simple and currently leads to some results with unknown energy balance implications. Statistical testing of GCM forecasts for degree of agreement with data would facilitate assessment of fitness for use. If model results need to be put on an anomaly basis due to model bias, then both visual and quantitative measures of model fit depend strongly on the reference period used for normalization, making testing problematic. Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues. Rigorous reasoning entails carefully quantifying levels of uncertainty.

  8. Dynamical Analysis of the Lorenz-84 Atmospheric Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamical behaviors of the Lorenz-84 atmospheric circulation model are investigated based on qualitative theory and numerical simulations. The stability and local bifurcation conditions of the Lorenz-84 atmospheric circulation model are obtained. It is also shown that when the bifurcation parameter exceeds a critical value, the Hopf bifurcation occurs in this model. Then, the conditions of the supercritical and subcritical bifurcation are derived through the normal form theory. Finally, the chaotic behavior of the model is also discussed, the bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents spectrum for the corresponding parameter are obtained, and the parameter interval ranges of limit cycle and chaotic attractor are calculated in further. Especially, a computer-assisted proof of the chaoticity of the model is presented by a topological horseshoe theory.

  9. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF HOT JUPITERS: INSENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Beibei; Showman, Adam P.

    2013-01-01

    The ongoing characterization of hot Jupiters has motivated a variety of circulation models of their atmospheres. Such models must be integrated starting from an assumed initial state, which is typically taken to be a wind-free, rest state. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of hot-Jupiter atmospheric circulation to initial conditions with shallow-water models and full three-dimensional models. Those models are initialized with zonal jets, and we explore a variety of different initial jet profiles. We demonstrate that, in both classes of models, the final, equilibrated state is independent of initial condition—as long as frictional drag near the bottom of the domain and/or interaction with a specified planetary interior are included so that the atmosphere can adjust angular momentum over time relative to the interior. When such mechanisms are included, otherwise identical models initialized with vastly different initial conditions all converge to the same statistical steady state. In some cases, the models exhibit modest time variability; this variability results in random fluctuations about the statistical steady state, but we emphasize that, even in these cases, the statistical steady state itself does not depend on initial conditions. Although the outcome of hot-Jupiter circulation models depend on details of the radiative forcing and frictional drag, aspects of which remain uncertain, we conclude that the specification of initial conditions is not a source of uncertainty, at least over the parameter range explored in most current models.

  10. Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

    2018-04-01

    The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional

  11. The Michigan Titan Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TTGCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J. M.; Bougher, S. W.; de Lahaye, V.; Waite, J. H.

    2005-12-01

    The Cassini flybys of Titan since late October, 2004 have provided data critical to better understanding its chemical and thermal structures. With this in mind, a 3-D TGCM of Titan's atmosphere from 600km to the exobase (~1450km) has been developed. This paper presents the first results from the partially operational code. Currently, the TTGCM includes static background chemistry (Lebonnois et al 2001, Vervack et al 2004) coupled with thermal conduction routines. The thermosphere remains dominated by solar EUV forcing and HCN rotational cooling, which is calculated by a full line-by-line radiative transfer routine along the lines of Yelle (1991) and Mueller-Wodarg (2000, 2002). In addition, an approximate treatment of magnetospheric heating is explored. This paper illustrates the model's capabilities as well as some initial results from the Titan Thermospheric General Circulation model that will be compared with both the Cassini INMS data and the model of Mueller-Wodarg (2000,2002).

  12. Study of the behaviour of artificial radioactive aerosols. Applications to some problems of atmospheric circulation (1963)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, G.

    1963-11-01

    The aim of this work, consists in the examination of the behaviour of radioactive aerosols produced in the atmosphere by nuclear explosions, in order to deduce the most general laws governing atmospheric circulation and diffusion. After having given a general table of the radioactive aerosols present the authors consider the validity and the precision of the measurement methods and the concentration of the aerosols at ground level and in the upper atmosphere, as well as their deposition on the ground. The existence is thus demonstrated of a tropospheric equatorial barrier and of discontinuous and seasonal aspects of stratosphere-troposphere transfers. The role is shown of precipitations and dry auto-filtration in the lower atmosphere cleaning processes. This work makes it possible to describe the general behaviour of dust from the stratosphere, and to improve the total radioactive contamination of the globe. (author) [fr

  13. Role of atmospheric circulations in haze pollution in December 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Zhicong; Wang, Huijun

    2017-09-01

    In the east of China, recent haze pollution has been severe and damaging. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were conducive factors. The number of December haze days over North China and the Huanghuai area has increased sharply since 2010 and was greatest in 2016. During 2016, the most aggressive control measures for anthropogenic emissions were implemented from 16 to 21 December, but the most severe haze pollution still occurred, covering approximately 25 % of the land area of China and lasting for 6 days. The atmospheric circulations must play critical roles in the sub-seasonal haze events. Actually, the positive phase of the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern in the middle troposphere strengthened the anomalous anti-cyclone over the NH area that confined vertical motion below. The associated southerly anomalies made the cold air and surface wind speed weaker, but enhanced the humid flow. Thus, the horizontal and vertical dispersion of atmospheric particulates was suppressed and the pollutants gathered within a narrow space. In December 2016, these key indices were strongly beneficial for haze occurrence and combined to result in the severest haze pollution. The influences of the preceding autumn sea surface temperature near the Gulf of Alaska and the subtropical eastern Pacific, October-November snow cover in western Siberia, and associated physical processes on haze pollution are also discussed.

  14. TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF DRY TIDALLY LOCKED ROCKY EXOPLANETS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koll, Daniel D. B.; Abbot, Dorian S., E-mail: dkoll@uchicago.edu [Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2016-07-10

    Next-generation space telescopes will observe the atmospheres of rocky planets orbiting nearby M-dwarfs. Understanding these observations will require well-developed theory in addition to numerical simulations. Here we present theoretical models for the temperature structure and atmospheric circulation of dry, tidally locked rocky exoplanets with gray radiative transfer and test them using a general circulation model (GCM). First, we develop a radiative-convective (RC) model that captures surface temperatures of slowly rotating and cool atmospheres. Second, we show that the atmospheric circulation acts as a global heat engine, which places strong constraints on large-scale wind speeds. Third, we develop an RC-subsiding model which extends our RC model to hot and thin atmospheres. We find that rocky planets develop large day–night temperature gradients at a ratio of wave-to-radiative timescales up to two orders of magnitude smaller than the value suggested by work on hot Jupiters. The small ratio is due to the heat engine inefficiency and asymmetry between updrafts and subsidence in convecting atmospheres. Fourth, we show, using GCM simulations, that rotation only has a strong effect on temperature structure if the atmosphere is hot or thin. Our models let us map out atmospheric scenarios for planets such as GJ 1132b, and show how thermal phase curves could constrain them. Measuring phase curves of short-period planets will require similar amounts of time on the James Webb Space Telescope as detecting molecules via transit spectroscopy, so future observations should pursue both techniques.

  15. DOPPLER SIGNATURES OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ON HOT JUPITERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Showman, Adam P.; Lewis, Nikole K.; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Shabram, Megan

    2013-01-01

    The meteorology of hot Jupiters has been characterized primarily with thermal measurements, but recent observations suggest the possibility of directly detecting the winds by observing the Doppler shift of spectral lines seen during transit. Motivated by these observations, we show how Doppler measurements can place powerful constraints on the meteorology. We show that the atmospheric circulation—and Doppler signature—of hot Jupiters splits into two regimes. Under weak stellar insolation, the day-night thermal forcing generates fast zonal jet streams from the interaction of atmospheric waves with the mean flow. In this regime, air along the terminator (as seen during transit) flows toward Earth in some regions and away from Earth in others, leading to a Doppler signature exhibiting superposed blueshifted and redshifted components. Under intense stellar insolation, however, the strong thermal forcing damps these planetary-scale waves, inhibiting their ability to generate jets. Strong frictional drag likewise damps these waves and inhibits jet formation. As a result, this second regime exhibits a circulation dominated by high-altitude, day-to-night airflow, leading to a predominantly blueshifted Doppler signature during transit. We present state-of-the-art circulation models including non-gray radiative transfer to quantify this regime shift and the resulting Doppler signatures; these models suggest that cool planets like GJ 436b lie in the first regime, HD 189733b is transitional, while planets hotter than HD 209458b lie in the second regime. Moreover, we show how the amplitude of the Doppler shifts constrains the strength of frictional drag in the upper atmospheres of hot Jupiters. If due to winds, the ∼2 km s –1 blueshift inferred on HD 209458b may require drag time constants as short as 10 4 -10 6 s, possibly the result of Lorentz-force braking on this planet's hot dayside.

  16. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    OpenAIRE

    Aalst, M.K. (Maarten Krispijn) van

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generat...

  17. Spring Changeover of the Middle Atmosphere Circulation Compared with Rocket Wind Data up to 80 Km

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entzian, G.; Tarasenko, D. A.; Lauter, E. A.

    1984-01-01

    The middle atmosphere circulation is governed by two seasonal basic states in winter and summer, twice a year separated by relatively shortlived reversal periods. These seasonal basic states of circulation and the spring changeover period between them are investigated.

  18. The Global Monsoon as Seen through the Divergent Atmospheric Circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Stepaniak, David P.; Caron, Julie M.

    2000-11-01

    A comprehensive description is given of the global monsoon as seen through the large-scale overturning in the atmosphere that changes with the seasons, and it provides a basis for delimiting the monsoon regions of the world. The analysis focuses on the mean annual cycle of the divergent winds and associated vertical motions, as given by the monthly mean fields for 1979-93 reanalyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which are able to reproduce the dominant modes. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of the divergent circulation brings out two dominant modes with essentially the same vertical structures in all months of the year. The first mode, which depicts the global monsoon, has a simple vertical structure with a maximum in vertical motion at about 400 mb, divergence in the upper troposphere that is strongest at 150 mb and decays to zero amplitude above 70 mb, and convergence in the lower troposphere with a maximum at 925 mb (ECMWF) or 850 mb (NCEP). However, this mode has a rich three-dimensional spatial structure that evolves with the seasons. It accounts for 60% of the annual cycle variance of the divergent mass circulation and dominates the Hadley circulation as well as three overturning transverse cells. These include the Pacific Walker circulation; an Americas-Atlantic Walker circulation, both of which comprise rising motion in the west and sinking in the east; and a transverse cell over Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and the Indian Ocean that has rising motion in the east and sinking toward the west. These exist year-round but migrate and evolve considerably with the seasons and have about a third to half of the mass flux of the peak Hadley cell. The annual cycle of the two Hadley cells reveals peak strength in early February and early August in both reanalyses.A second monsoon mode, which accounts for

  19. Nucla circulating atmospheric fluidized bed demonstration project. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-10-01

    Colorado-Ute Electric Association began a study to evaluate options for upgrading and extending the life of its Nucla power station in 1982. Located in southwestern Colorado near the town of Nucla, this station was commissioned in 1959 with a local bituminous coal as its design fuel for three identical stoker-fired units, each rated at 12.6 MW(e). Poor station efficiency, high fuel costs, and spiraling boiler maintenance costs forced the Nucla Station into low priority in the CUEA dispatch order as early as 1981. Among the options CUEA considered was to serve as a host utility to demonstrate Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion (AFBC) technology. The anticipated environmental benefits and apparent attractive economics of a circulating AFBC led to Colorado-Ute`s decision to proceed with the design and construction of a demonstration project in 1984 at the Nucla facility.

  20. Atmospheric Circulation, Chemistry, and Infrared Spectra of Titan-like Exoplanets around Different Stellar Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lora, Juan M.; Kataria, Tiffany; Gao, Peter

    2018-01-01

    With the discovery of ever smaller and colder exoplanets, terrestrial worlds with hazy atmospheres must be increasingly considered. Our solar system’s Titan is a prototypical hazy planet, whose atmosphere may be representative of a large number of planets in our Galaxy. As a step toward characterizing such worlds, we present simulations of exoplanets that resemble Titan but orbit three different stellar hosts: G, K, and M dwarf stars. We use general circulation and photochemistry models to explore the circulation and chemistry of these Titan-like planets under varying stellar spectra, in all cases assuming a Titan-like insolation. Due to the strong absorption of visible light by atmospheric haze, the redder radiation accompanying later stellar types produces more isothermal stratospheres, stronger meridional temperature gradients at mbar pressures, and deeper and stronger zonal winds. In all cases, the planets’ atmospheres are strongly superrotating, but meridional circulation cells are weaker aloft under redder starlight. The photochemistry of hydrocarbon and nitrile species varies with stellar spectra, with variations in the FUV/NUV flux ratio playing an important role. Our results tentatively suggest that column haze production rates could be similar under all three hosts, implying that planets around many different stars could have similar characteristics to Titan’s atmosphere. Lastly, we present theoretical emission spectra. Overall, our study indicates that, despite important and subtle differences, the circulation and chemistry of Titan-like exoplanets are relatively insensitive to differences in the host star. These findings may be further probed with future space-based facilities, like WFIRST, LUVOIR, HabEx, and OST.

  1. Generalized atmospheric Rosenbluth methods (GARM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rechnitzer, A; Janse van Rensburg, E J

    2008-01-01

    We show that the classical Rosenbluth method for sampling self-avoiding walks (Hammersley and Morton 1954 J. R. Stat. Soc. B 16 23, Rosenbluth and Rosenbluth 1955 J. Chem. Phys. 23 356) can be extended to a general algorithm for sampling many families of objects, including self-avoiding polygons. The implementation relies on an elementary move which is a generalization of kinetic growth; rather than only appending edges to the endpoint, edges may be inserted at any vertex provided the resulting objects still lie within the same family. This gives, for the first time, a kinetic growth algorithm for sampling self-avoiding polygons. We implement this method using pruning and enrichment (Grassberger 1997 Phys. Rev. E 56 3682) to sample self-avoiding walks and polygons. The algorithm can be further extended by mixing it with length-preserving moves, such as pivots and crank-shaft moves. (fast track communication)

  2. How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

    2017-12-01

    It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss

  3. Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

    2018-04-01

    In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

  4. Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

    2012-01-17

    We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

  5. Influence of Atlantic SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kestenare

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies of observational data suggest that Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean have a significant influence on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector in early winter and in spring. After reviewing this work and showing that the spring signal is part of a global air-sea interaction, we analyze for comparison an ensemble of simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model in T42 resolution forced by the observed distribution of SST and sea ice, and a simulation with the ECHAM4/OPA8 coupled model in T30 resolution. In the two cases, a significant influence of the Atlantic on the atmosphere is detected in the Atlantic-European sector. In the forced mode, ECHAM4 responds to SST anomalies from early spring to late summer, and also in early winter. The forcing involves SST anomalies not only in the tropical Atlantic, but also in the whole tropical band, suggesting a strong ENSO influence. The modeled signal resembles that seen in the observations in spring, but not in early winter. In the coupled mode, the Atlantic SST only has a significant influence on the atmosphere in summer. Although the SST anomaly is confined to the Atlantic, the summer signal shows some similarity with that seen in the forced simulations. However, there is no counterpart in the observations.

  6. The characteristics of local atmospheric circulation around the Wolsung NPP in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, G.B.; Lee, M.C.; Song, Y.I.

    1998-01-01

    The transport of air pollutants in coastal regions has been known to be strongly affected by the mesoscale atmospheric circulations such as sea-land breezes. These mesoscale atmospheric circulations depend on synoptic weather conditions. In this study, a three-dimensional sea-land breeze model was developed to evaluate the effects of the sea and land breezes on the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released from nuclear power plants in Korea. In the model, the hydrostatic primitive equations in the terrain-following coordinate system were used. The mesoscale atmospheric circulation simulation were carried out under various synoptic weather conditions for all seasons around the Wolsung nuclear power plant site

  7. Response of an ocean general circulation model to wind and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The stretched-coordinate ocean general circulation model has been designed to study the observed variability due to wind and thermodynamic forcings. The model domain extends from 60°N to 60°S and cyclically continuous in the longitudinal direction. The horizontal resolution is 5° × 5° and 9 discrete vertical levels.

  8. A general circulation model (GCM) parameterization of Pinatubo aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacis, A.A.; Carlson, B.E.; Mishchenko, M.I. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The June 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo is the largest and best documented global climate forcing experiment in recorded history. The time development and geographical dispersion of the aerosol has been closely monitored and sampled. Based on preliminary estimates of the Pinatubo aerosol loading, general circulation model predictions of the impact on global climate have been made.

  9. Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cahynová, Monika; Huth, R.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4003/abstract

  10. Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cahynová, Monika; Huth, Radan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4003/abstract

  11. Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michael J Iacono

    2011-04-07

    This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

  12. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plavcova, Eva; Kysely, Jan

    2012-01-01

    The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for

  13. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plavcova, Eva [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague 4 (Czech Republic); Technical University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Liberec (Czech Republic); Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague (Czech Republic); Kysely, Jan [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague 4 (Czech Republic); Technical University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Liberec (Czech Republic)

    2012-10-15

    The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for

  14. A report on workshops: General circulation model study of climate- chemistry interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei-Chyung, Wang; Isaksen, I.S.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the discussion on General Circulation Model Study of Climate-Chemistry Interaction from two workshops, the first held 19--21 August 1992 at Oslo, Norway and the second 26--27 May 1993 at Albany, New York, USA. The workshops are the IAMAP activities under the Trace Constituent Working Group. The main objective of the two workshops was to recommend specific general circulation model (GCM) studies of the ozone distribution and the climatic effect of its changes. The workshops also discussed the climatic implications of increasing sulfate aerosols because of its importance to regional climate. The workshops were organized into four working groups: observation of atmospheric O 3 ; modeling of atmospheric chemical composition; modeling of sulfate aerosols; and aspects of climate modeling

  15. Explicit prediction of ice clouds in general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Martin

    1999-11-01

    Although clouds play extremely important roles in the radiation budget and hydrological cycle of the Earth, there are large quantitative uncertainties in our understanding of their generation, maintenance and decay mechanisms, representing major obstacles in the development of reliable prognostic cloud water schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs). Recognizing their relative neglect in the past, both observationally and theoretically, this work places special focus on ice clouds. A recent version of the UCLA - University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) that includes interactive radiation is used to perform idealized experiments to study ice cloud maintenance and decay mechanisms under various conditions in term of: (1) background static stability, (2) background relative humidity, (3) rate of cloud ice addition over a fixed initial time-period and (4) radiation: daytime, nighttime and no-radiation. Radiation is found to have major effects on the life-time of layer-clouds. Optically thick ice clouds decay significantly slower than expected from pure microphysical crystal fall-out (taucld = 0.9--1.4 h as opposed to no-motion taumicro = 0.5--0.7 h). This is explained by the upward turbulent fluxes of water induced by IR destabilization, which partially balance the downward transport of water by snowfall. Solar radiation further slows the ice-water decay by destruction of the inversion above cloud-top and the resulting upward transport of water. Optically thin ice clouds, on the other hand, may exhibit even longer life-times (>1 day) in the presence of radiational cooling. The resulting saturation mixing ratio reduction provides for a constant cloud ice source. These CRM results are used to develop a prognostic cloud water scheme for the UCLA-GCM. The framework is based on the bulk water phase model of Ose (1993). The model predicts cloud liquid water and cloud ice separately, and which is extended to split the ice phase into suspended cloud ice (predicted

  16. Interannual modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grainger, S; Frederiksen, C S; Zheng, X

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric circulation acts as a bridge between large-scale sources of climate variability, and climate variability on regional scales. Here a statistical method is applied to monthly mean Southern Hemisphere 500hPa geopotential height to separate the interannual variability of the seasonal mean into intraseasonal and slowly varying (time scales of a season or longer) components. Intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are estimated from realisations of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) twentieth century coupled climate simulation (20c3m) and are evaluated against those estimated from reanalysis data. The intraseasonal modes of variability are generally well reproduced across all CMIP3 20c3m models for both Southern Hemisphere summer and winter. The slow modes are in general less well reproduced than the intraseasonal modes, and there are larger differences between realisations than for the intraseasonal modes. New diagnostics are proposed to evaluate model variability. It is found that differences between realisations from each model are generally less than inter-model differences. Differences between model-mean diagnostics are found. The results obtained are applicable to assessing the reliability of changes in atmospheric circulation variability in CMIP3 models and for their suitability for further studies of regional climate variability.

  17. Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

    2017-05-23

    Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

  18. Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rienecker, Michele M.

    1999-01-01

    Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

  19. Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 2. Winter circulation

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Pratt, Lawrence J.; Bower, Amy S.; Kö hl, Armin; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Rivas, David

    2014-01-01

    The shallow winter overturning circulation in the Red Sea is studied using a 50 year high-resolution MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) simulation with realistic atmospheric forcing. The overturning circulation for a typical year, represented

  20. Optimisation of a parallel ocean general circulation model

    OpenAIRE

    M. I. Beare; D. P. Stevens

    1997-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents the development of a general-purpose parallel ocean circulation model, for use on a wide range of computer platforms, from traditional scalar machines to workstation clusters and massively parallel processors. Parallelism is provided, as a modular option, via high-level message-passing routines, thus hiding the technical intricacies from the user. An initial implementation highlights that the parallel efficiency of the model is adversely affected by...

  1. Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, R. E.; Rees, T. H.; Woodbury, G. E.

    1976-01-01

    A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

  2. Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

    2017-12-01

    In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

  3. Large scale atmospheric tropical circulation changes and consequences during global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gastineau, G.

    2008-01-01

    The changes of the tropical large scale circulation during climate change can have large impacts on human activities. In a first part, the meridional atmospheric tropical circulation was studied in the different coupled models. During climate change, we find, on the one hand, that the Hadley meridional circulation and the subtropical jet are significantly shifted poleward, and on the other hand, that the intensity of the tropical circulation weakens. The slow down of the atmospheric circulation results from the dry static stability changes affecting the tropical troposphere. Secondly, idealized simulations are used to explain the tropical circulation changes. Ensemble simulation using the model LMDZ4 are set up to study the results from the coupled model IPSLCM4. The weakening of the large scale tropical circulation and the poleward shift of the Hadley cells are explained by both the uniform change and the meridional gradient change of the sea surface temperature. Then, we used the atmospheric model LMDZ4 in an aqua-planet configuration. The Hadley circulation changes are explained in a simple framework by the required poleward energy transport. In a last part, we focus on the water vapor distribution and feedback in the climate models. The Hadley circulation changes were shown to have a significant impact on the water vapour feedback during climate change. (author)

  4. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  5. The atmospheric circulation of the super Earth GJ 1214b: Dependence on composition and metallicity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kataria, T.; Showman, A. P. [Department of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Fortney, J. J. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Marley, M. S.; Freedman, R. S., E-mail: tkataria@lpl.arizona.edu [NASA Ames Research Center 245-3, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States)

    2014-04-20

    We present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models of GJ 1214b, a 2.7 Earth-radius, 6.5 Earth-mass super Earth detected by the MEarth survey. Here we explore the planet's circulation as a function of atmospheric metallicity and atmospheric composition, modeling atmospheres with a low mean molecular weight (MMW; i.e., H{sub 2}-dominated) and a high MMW (i.e., water- and CO{sub 2}-dominated). We find that atmospheres with a low MMW have strong day-night temperature variations at pressures above the infrared photosphere that lead to equatorial superrotation. For these atmospheres, the enhancement of atmospheric opacities with increasing metallicity lead to shallower atmospheric heating, larger day-night temperature variations, and hence stronger superrotation. In comparison, atmospheres with a high MMW have larger day-night and equator-to-pole temperature variations than low MMW atmospheres, but differences in opacity structure and energy budget lead to differences in jet structure. The circulation of a water-dominated atmosphere is dominated by equatorial superrotation, while the circulation of a CO{sub 2}-dominated atmosphere is instead dominated by high-latitude jets. By comparing emergent flux spectra and light curves for 50× solar and water-dominated compositions, we show that observations in emission can break the degeneracy in determining the atmospheric composition of GJ 1214b. The variation in opacity with wavelength for the water-dominated atmosphere leads to large phase variations within water bands and small phase variations outside of water bands. The 50× solar atmosphere, however, yields small variations within water bands and large phase variations at other characteristic wavelengths. These observations would be much less sensitive to clouds, condensates, and hazes than transit observations.

  6. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  7. Simulation of Venus polar vortices with the non-hydrostatic general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodin, Alexander V.; Mingalev, Oleg; Orlov, Konstantin

    2012-07-01

    The dynamics of Venus atmosphere in the polar regions presents a challenge for general circulation models. Numerous images and hyperspectral data from Venus Express mission shows that above 60 degrees latitude atmospheric motion is substantially different from that of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere. In particular, extended polar hoods composed presumably of fine haze particles, as well as polar vortices revealing mesoscale wave perturbations with variable zonal wavenumbers, imply the significance of vertical motion in these circulation elements. On these scales, however, hydrostatic balance commonly used in the general circulation models is no longer valid, and vertical forces have to be taken into account to obtain correct wind field. We present the first non-hydrostatic general circulation model of the Venus atmosphere based on the full set of gas dynamics equations. The model uses uniform grid with the resolution of 1.2 degrees in horizontal and 200 m in the vertical direction. Thermal forcing is simulated by means of relaxation approximation with specified thermal profile and time scale. The model takes advantage of hybrid calculations on graphical processors using CUDA technology in order to increase performance. Simulations show that vorticity is concentrated at high latitudes within planetary scale, off-axis vortices, precessing with a period of 30 to 40 days. The scale and position of these vortices coincides with polar hoods observed in the UV images. The regions characterized with high vorticity are surrounded by series of small vortices which may be caused by shear instability of the zonal flow. Vertical velocity component implies that in the central part of high vorticity areas atmospheric flow is downwelling and perturbed by mesoscale waves with zonal wavenumbers 1-4, resembling observed wave structures in the polar vortices. Simulations also show the existence of areas with strong vertical flow, concentrated in spiral branches extending

  8. Optimisation of a parallel ocean general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beare, M. I.; Stevens, D. P.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents the development of a general-purpose parallel ocean circulation model, for use on a wide range of computer platforms, from traditional scalar machines to workstation clusters and massively parallel processors. Parallelism is provided, as a modular option, via high-level message-passing routines, thus hiding the technical intricacies from the user. An initial implementation highlights that the parallel efficiency of the model is adversely affected by a number of factors, for which optimisations are discussed and implemented. The resulting ocean code is portable and, in particular, allows science to be achieved on local workstations that could otherwise only be undertaken on state-of-the-art supercomputers.

  9. The effect of global-scale divergent circulation on the atmospheric water vapor transport and maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tsing-Chang

    1988-01-01

    The detection, distribution, and dynamics of atmospheric water on Earth was examined. How the high levels of water vapor and precipitation that occur over the tropics during the monsoon season result from the development of a strong divergent atmospheric circulation is discussed.

  10. Atmospheric circulation in northern hemisphere and north atlantic oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Вадимович Холопцев

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Conditions under which statistical connections of interannual changes of repitition duration periods in Northern hemisphere of elementary circulation mechanisms associated to meridional northern and meridional southern groups with variations of North Atlantic oscillation are significant were revealed. It is shown, that the characteristics changes of these connections taking place in modern period can be caused by distribution changes of distribution of sea surface temperatures

  11. NUCLA Circulating Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Demonstration Project. 1990 Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-02-01

    The objective of this DOE Cooperative Agreement is to conduct a cost-shared clean coal technology project to demonstrate the feasibility of circulating fluidized bed combustion technology and to evaluate economic, environmental, and operational benefits of CFB steam generators on a utility scale. At the conclusion of the Phase 2 program, testing related to satisfying these objectives was completed. Data analysis and reporting are scheduled for completion by October 1991. (VC)

  12. Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

    2014-12-01

    The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This

  13. Impact of cloud microphysics on cloud-radiation interactions in the CSU general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, L.D.; Randall, D.A.

    1995-04-01

    Our ability to study and quantify the impact of cloud-radiation interactions in studying global scale climate variations strongly relies upon the ability of general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the coupling between the spatial and temporal variations of the model-generated cloudiness and atmospheric moisture budget components. In particular, the ability of GCMs to reproduce the geographical distribution of the sources and sinks of the planetary radiation balance depends upon their representation of the formation and dissipation of cloudiness in conjunction with cloud microphysics processes, and the fractional amount and optical characteristics of cloudiness in conjunction with the mass of condensate stored in the atmosphere. A cloud microphysics package which encompasses five prognostic variables for the mass of water vapor, cloud water, cloud ice, rain, and snow has been implemented in the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM) to simulate large-scale condensation processes. Convection interacts with the large-scale environment through the detrainment of cloud water and cloud ice at the top of cumulus towers. The cloud infrared emissivity and cloud optical depth of the model-generated cloudiness are interactive and depend upon the mass of cloud water and cloud ice suspended in the atmosphere. The global atmospheric moisture budget and planetary radiation budget of the CSU GCM obtained from a perpetual January simulation are discussed. Geographical distributions of the atmospheric moisture species are presented. Global maps of the top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation and planetary albedo are compared against Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite data.

  14. Impact of an improved shortwave radiation scheme in the MAECHAM5 General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Morcrette

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the representation of ozone absorption in the stratosphere of the MAECHAM5 general circulation model, the spectral resolution of the shortwave radiation parameterization used in the model has been increased from 4 to 6 bands. Two 20-years simulations with the general circulation model have been performed, one with the standard and the other with the newly introduced parameterization respectively, to evaluate the temperature and dynamical changes arising from the two different representations of the shortwave radiative transfer. In the simulation with the increased spectral resolution in the radiation parameterization, a significant warming of almost the entire model domain is reported. At the summer stratopause the temperature increase is about 6 K and alleviates the cold bias present in the model when the standard radiation scheme is used. These general circulation model results are consistent both with previous validation of the radiation scheme and with the offline clear-sky comparison performed in the current work with a discrete ordinate 4 stream scattering line by line radiative transfer model. The offline validation shows a substantial reduction of the daily averaged shortwave heating rate bias (1–2 K/day cooling that occurs for the standard radiation parameterization in the upper stratosphere, present under a range of atmospheric conditions. Therefore, the 6 band shortwave radiation parameterization is considered to be better suited for the representation of the ozone absorption in the stratosphere than the 4 band parameterization. Concerning the dynamical response in the general circulation model, it is found that the reported warming at the summer stratopause induces stronger zonal mean zonal winds in the middle atmosphere. These stronger zonal mean zonal winds thereafter appear to produce a dynamical feedback that results in a dynamical warming (cooling of the polar winter (summer mesosphere, caused by an

  15. Intermediate Models of Planetary Circulations in the Atmosphere and Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McWilliams, James C.; Gent, Peter R.

    1980-08-01

    Large-scale extratropical motions (with dimensions comparable to, or somewhat smaller than, the planetary radius) in the atmosphere and ocean exhibit a more restricted range of phenomena than are admissible in the primitive equations for fluid motions, and there have been many previous proposals for simpler, more phenomenologically limited models of these motions. The oldest and most successful of these is the quasi-geostrophic model. An extensive discussion is made of models intermediate between the quasi-geostrophic and primitive ones, some of which have been previously proposed [e.g., the balance equations (BE), where tendencies in the equation for the divergent component of velocity are neglected, or the geostrophic momentum approximation (GM), where ageostrophic accelerations are neglected relative to geostrophic ones] and some of which are derived here. Virtues of these models are assessed in the dual measure of nearly geostrophic momentum balance (i.e., small Rossby number) and approximate frontal structure (i.e., larger along-axis velocities and length scales than their cross-axis counterparts), since one or both of these circumstances is usually characteristic of planetary motions. Consideration is also given to various coordinate transformations, since they can yield simpler expressions for the governing differential equations of the intermediate models. In particular, a new set of coordinates is proposed, isentropic geostrophic coordinates,(IGC), which has the advantage of making implicit the advections due to ageostrophic horizontal and vertical velocities under various approximations. A generalization of quasi-geostrophy is made. named hypo-geostrophy (HG), which is an asymptotic approximation of one higher order accuracy in Rossby number. The governing equations are simplest in IGC for both HG and GM; we name the latter in these coordinates isentropic semi-geostrophy (ISG), in analogy to Hoskins' (1975) semi-geostrophy (SG). HG, GM and BE are, in our

  16. Results from a 2 x CO2 simulation with the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, G.J.

    1990-01-01

    The Canadian Climate Centre's general circulation model (GCM), GCMII, was used to simulate a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The experiment was a standard greenhouse gas climate change study, using a three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model coupled to a simple 'slab' ocean and a thermodynamic ice model. This standard experiment retains the sophistication and generality of an atmospheric GCM, is straightforward in its use of simplified ocean and ice models, is comparatively economical of computer time, and permits comparison of results from different models. Features of the second generation GCMII include: higher resolution at T32L10 with a transform grid of 3.75 x 3.75 degree; full diurnal and annual cycles; ocean and sea ice treatment involving specification of ocean transports; modified treatment of land surface processes and hydrology; a parameterization of cloud optical feedback; and a retention of the special application data sets of surface parameters for North America and Europe. Results of the simulation were a globally averaged surface temperature increase of 3.5 degree C; a precipitation and evaporation increase of 3%; an average decrease in soil moisture of 6.6%; a decrease in cloud cover of 2.2%; a 66% decrease in mass of sea ice; and marked changes in other quantities in the polar region. 2 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  17. NUCLA Circulating Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Demonstration Project. Annual report, 1988

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    This Annual Report on Colorado-Ute Electric Association`s NUCLA Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) Demonstration Program covers the period from February 1987 through December 1988. The outline for presentation in this report includes a summary of unit operations along with individual sections covering progress in study plan areas that commenced during this reporting period. These include cold-mode shakedown and calibration, plant commercial performance statistics, unit start-up (cold), coal and limestone preparation and handling, ash handling system performance and operating experience, tubular air heater, baghouse operation and performance, materials monitoring, and reliability monitoring. During this reporting period, the coal-mode shakedown and calibration plan was completed. (VC)

  18. Active Upper-atmosphere Chemistry and Dynamics from Polar Circulation Reversal on Titan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teanby, Nicholas A.; Irwin, Patrick Gerard Joseph; Nixon, Conor A.; DeKok, Remco; Vinatier, Sandrine; Coustenis, Athena; Sefton-Nash, Elliot; Calcutt, Simon B.; Flasar, Michael F.

    2012-01-01

    Saturn's moon Titan has a nitrogen atmosphere comparable to Earth's, with a surface pressure of 1.4 bar. Numerical models reproduce the tropospheric conditions very well but have trouble explaining the observed middle-atmosphere temperatures, composition and winds. The top of the middle-atmosphere circulation has been thought to lie at an altitude of 450 to 500 kilometres, where there is a layer of haze that appears to be separated from the main haze deck. This 'detached' haze was previously explained as being due to the colocation of peak haze production and the limit of dynamical transport by the circulation's upper branch. Herewe report a build-up of trace gases over the south pole approximately two years after observing the 2009 post-equinox circulation reversal, from which we conclude that middle-atmosphere circulation must extend to an altitude of at least 600 kilometres. The primary drivers of this circulation are summer-hemisphere heating of haze by absorption of solar radiation and winter-hemisphere cooling due to infrared emission by haze and trace gases; our results therefore imply that these effects are important well into the thermosphere (altitudes higher than 500 kilometres). This requires both active upper-atmosphere chemistry, consistent with the detection of high-complexity molecules and ions at altitudes greater than 950 kilometres, and an alternative explanation for the detached haze, such as a transition in haze particle growth from monomers to fractal structures.

  19. General circulation and tracers: studies in the Western Indian Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamous, Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The main question addressed in this thesis is how to best use the information obtained from hydro-biogeochemical tracer data, to study the oceanic general circulation in the Western Indian Ocean. First, a principal component analysis is performed on a historical data set. The tracers considered are temperature, salinity, density, oxygen, phosphate and silica. The method reduces the amount of data to be considered by a factor of 5. It reproduces correctly and efficiently the large-scale distributions of these oceanic properties. The analysed data are then used in a finite-difference nonlinear inverse model. The grid has a resolution of 4 deg. by 4 deg.. Dynamical as well as tracer conservation constraints are used. These constraints are well satisfied by the obtained solutions but the associated errors remain large. Additional constraints would be required in order to discuss the different solutions in more detail. Finally, a qualitative study is done on the deep distribution of helium-3. The data show several important features linked to hydrothermal input in the Gulf of Aden and on the Central Indian Ridge, and to the origin of water masses and deep circulation characteristics. However additional data are required in order to clarify the distribution of this tracer in other key areas. (author) [fr

  20. The role of SST on the South American atmospheric circulation during January, February and March 2001

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drumond, Anita Rodrigues De Moraes; Ambrizzi, Tércio

    2005-06-01

    Precipitation deficits were observed over southeastern, northeastern and Central Brazil during the 2001 Austral Summer. They contributed to the worsening of the energy crisis that was occurring in the country. A low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation observed over eastern Brazil enhanced the deviation of moisture transport that usually occurs from the Amazon Basin to southeastern Brazil and inhibited the occurrence of South Atlantic Convergence Zone events in that period. However, an anomalous low-level northerly moisture flux was observed over the La Plata Basin, and positive precipitation anomalies occurred over Bolivia, Paraguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. Using the ensemble technique, a numerical study was carried out to investigate the role of different sea surface temperature (SST) forcings observed over this anomalous South American atmospheric circulation. Reynolds SST monthly means were used as boundary conditions to study the influence of South Atlantic, South Indian, South Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans. The simulations were run from September 2000 to April 2001 using the Community Climate Model version 3.6 General Circulation Model. Ten integrations using different initial conditions were done to each experiment. Numerical experiments suggested that the combined influence of South Pacific and Equatorial Pacific oceans could be responsible for the drought observed over Central Brazil. These experiments simulated the low-level anticyclonic anomaly observed over eastern Brazil. However, both experiments have poorly reproduced the intensity of the anomalous low-level northerly moisture flux observed over the La Plata Basin. Therefore, the intensity of the simulated precipitation anomalies over the subtropical regions was much weaker than observed.

  1. Atmospheric circulation patterns and phenological anomalies of grapevine in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cola, Gabriele; Alilla, Roberta; Dal Monte, Giovanni; Epifani, Chiara; Mariani, Luigi; Parisi, Simone Gabriele

    2014-05-01

    Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a fundamental crop for Italian agriculture as testified by the first place of Italy in the world producers ranking. This justify the importance of quantitative analyses referred to this crucial crop and aimed to quantify meteorological resources and limitations to development and production. Phenological rhythms of grapevine are strongly affected by surface fields of air temperature which in their turn are affected by synoptic circulation. This evidence highlights the importance of an approach based on dynamic climatology in order to detect and explain phenological anomalies that can have relevant effects on quantity and quality of grapevine production. In this context, this research is aimed to study the existing relation among the 850 hPa circulation patterns over the Euro-Mediterranean area from NOAA Ncep dataset and grapevine phenological fields for Italy over the period 2006-2013, highlighting the main phenological anomalies and analyzing synoptic determinants. This work is based on phenological fields with a standard pixel of 2 km routinely produced from 2006 by the Iphen project (Italian Phenological network) on the base of phenological observations spatialized by means of a specific algorithm based on cumulated thermal resources expressed as Normal Heat Hours (NHH). Anomalies have been evaluated with reference to phenological normal fields defined for the Italian area on the base of phenological observations and Iphen model. Results show that relevant phenological anomalies observed over the reference period are primarily associated with long lasting blocking systems driving cold air masses (Arctic or Polar-Continental) or hot ones (Sub-Tropical) towards the Italian area. Specific cases are presented for some years like 2007 and 2011.

  2. Impacts of four northern-hemisphere teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulations over Eurasia and the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Yu, Jin-yi; Paek, Houk

    2017-08-01

    The impacts of four teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulation components over Eurasia and the Pacific region, from low to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), were investigated comprehensively in this study. The patterns, as identified by the Climate Prediction Center (USA), were the East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Polar/Eurasia (POLEUR), and Scandinavian (SCAND) teleconnections. Results indicate that the EA pattern is closely related to the intensity of the subtropical high over different sectors of the NH in all seasons, especially boreal winter. The wave train associated with this pattern serves as an atmospheric bridge that transfers Atlantic influence into the low-latitude region of the Pacific. In addition, the amplitudes of the EAWR, SCAND, and POLEUR patterns were found to have considerable control on the "Vangengeim-Girs" circulation that forms over the Atlantic-Eurasian region in winter or spring. The EA and EAWR mainly affect the westerlies in winter and spring and the POLEUR and SCAND, respectively, in summer and winter. Strong westerlies confine the extension of the North Polar vortex, which generally results in a small weak vortex and a shallow East Asian trough located in a position further east than normal. Furthermore, the North Polar vortex presents significant connections with the patterns during winter and summer. Analyses in this work suggest that the teleconnection patterns in summer could be driven, at least partly, by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which to some degree might transmit the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to Eurasia and the Pacific region.

  3. Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2018-05-01

    This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

  4. Optimisation of a parallel ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Beare

    1997-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development of a general-purpose parallel ocean circulation model, for use on a wide range of computer platforms, from traditional scalar machines to workstation clusters and massively parallel processors. Parallelism is provided, as a modular option, via high-level message-passing routines, thus hiding the technical intricacies from the user. An initial implementation highlights that the parallel efficiency of the model is adversely affected by a number of factors, for which optimisations are discussed and implemented. The resulting ocean code is portable and, in particular, allows science to be achieved on local workstations that could otherwise only be undertaken on state-of-the-art supercomputers.

  5. Optimisation of a parallel ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Beare

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development of a general-purpose parallel ocean circulation model, for use on a wide range of computer platforms, from traditional scalar machines to workstation clusters and massively parallel processors. Parallelism is provided, as a modular option, via high-level message-passing routines, thus hiding the technical intricacies from the user. An initial implementation highlights that the parallel efficiency of the model is adversely affected by a number of factors, for which optimisations are discussed and implemented. The resulting ocean code is portable and, in particular, allows science to be achieved on local workstations that could otherwise only be undertaken on state-of-the-art supercomputers.

  6. A stratiform cloud parameterization for General Circulation Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in General Circulation Models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in the application of these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop a paxameterization for stratiform clouds in GCMs that expresses stratiform clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. In this parameterization, precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  7. A stratiform cloud parameterization for general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.; Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; McCaa, J.

    1994-01-01

    The crude treatment of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) is widely recognized as a major limitation in applying these models to predictions of global climate change. The purpose of this project is to develop in GCMs a stratiform cloud parameterization that expresses clouds in terms of bulk microphysical properties and their subgrid variability. Various clouds variables and their interactions are summarized. Precipitating cloud species are distinguished from non-precipitating species, and the liquid phase is distinguished from the ice phase. The size of the non-precipitating cloud particles (which influences both the cloud radiative properties and the conversion of non-precipitating cloud species to precipitating species) is determined by predicting both the mass and number concentrations of each species

  8. Atmospheric circulation response to anthropogenic forcings: from annular modes to storm tracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oudar, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Climate variability in mid and high latitudes is very complex due to numerous physical mechanisms implied. This climate variability can be decomposed into 2 components: the internal variability associated with internal processes and the forced variability linked to the external forcings which can be natural (volcanism, natural aerosols) or anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols). These external forcings play a crucial role on the climate and its variability. The challenge in the climate research is to understand their effects on the climate and their roles relatively with the internal variability. The objective of this thesis is a better understanding of the respective roles of internal variability and forced variability on the past and future atmospheric circulation in both hemispheres characterized by the annular mode and the synoptic activity associated using atmospheric reanalysis and experiments performed with the coupled climate model CNRM-CM5. First, we focus on the annular mode changes in both hemispheres, named the NAM (Northern Annular Mode) and the SAM (Southern Annular Mode). We show that the observed positive trend of the SAM in the 1960's in austral summer is well reproduced by the climate model. However, contrarily to other studies which suggest that this positive trend can be explained by only stratospheric ozone depletion, it is reproduced in the CNRM-CM5 model when the ozone depletion and greenhouse gases (GHG) increase are both prescribed. Then, we investigate the changes in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. These are more complex than in the Southern Hemisphere. Indeed, the increase of GHG in the atmosphere causes a general global warming maximum in the tropical high troposphere and over the pole at the surface which is mainly explained by Arctic sea ice loss. So the understanding of the changes is very complex due to several physical processes and retroactions. Thus, we have conducted a protocol with the coupled

  9. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handorf

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of the Arctic atmosphere to low and high sea ice concentration phases based on European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim atmospheric data and Hadley Centre's sea ice dataset (HadISST1 from 1989 until 2010 has been studied. Time slices of winter atmospheric circulation with high (1990–2000 and low (2001–2010 sea ice concentration in the preceding August/September have been analysed with respect to tropospheric interactions between planetary and baroclinic waves. It is shown that a changed sea ice concentration over the Arctic Ocean impacts differently the development of synoptic and planetary atmospheric circulation systems. During the low ice phase, stronger heat release to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean reduces the atmospheric vertical static stability. This leads to an earlier onset of baroclinic instability that further modulates the non-linear interactions between baroclinic wave energy fluxes on time scales of 2.5–6 d and planetary scales of 10–90 d. Our analysis suggests that Arctic sea ice concentration changes exert a remote impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation during winter, exhibiting a barotropic structure with similar patterns of pressure anomalies at the surface and in the mid-troposphere. These are connected to pronounced planetary wave train changes notably over the North Pacific.

  10. Updated Results from the Michigan Titan Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TTGCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J. M.; Bougher, S. W.; de Lahaye, V.; Waite, J. H.; Ridley, A.

    2006-05-01

    This paper presents updated results from the Michigan Titan Thermospheric General Circulation Model (TTGCM) that was recently unveiled in operational form (Bell et al 2005 Spring AGU). Since then, we have incorporated a suite of chemical reactions for the major neutral constituents in Titan's upper atmosphere (N2, CH4). Additionally, some selected minor neutral constituents and major ionic species are also supported in the framework. At this time, HCN, which remains one of the critical thermally active species in the upper atmosphere, remains specified at all altitudes, utilizing profiles derived from recent Cassini-Huygen's measurements. In addition to these improvements, a parallel effort is underway to develop a non-hydrostatic Titan Thermospheric General Circulation Model for further comparisons. In this work, we emphasize the impacts of self-consistent chemistry on the results of the updated TTGCM relative to its frozen chemistry predecessor. Meanwhile, the thermosphere's thermodynamics remains determined by the interplay of solar EUV forcing and HCN rotational cooling, which is calculated by a full line- by-line radiative transfer routine along the lines of Yelle (1991) and Mueller-Wodarg (2000, 2002). In addition to these primary drivers, a treatment of magnetospheric heating is further tested. The model's results will be compared with both the Cassini INMS data and the model of Mueller-Wodarg (2000,2002).

  11. Classifications of Winter Euro-Atlantic Circulation Patterns: An Intercomparison of Five Atmospheric Reanalyses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stryhal, J.; Huth, Radan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 19 (2017), s. 7847-7861 ISSN 0894-8755 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * climate models * Europe * model evaluation/performance * reanalysis data Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.161, year: 2016 http:// journals .ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0059.1

  12. Moisture transport and Atmospheric circulation in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2013-04-01

    Arctic. We investigate an Arctic trajectory dataset and provide a phenomenological/descriptive analysis of these trajectories, including key meteorological variables carried along trajectories. The trajectory climatology is linked to a previously established cyclone climatology dataset from Hanley and Caballero (2011). We associate trajectories and the meteorological variables they are carrying to cyclones in this dataset. A climatology of 'Arctic-influencing' cyclones is constructed from the cyclone dataset. The resilience of the polar vortex and its effect on circulation, via blocking and breaking, is examined in relation to our trajectory climatology.

  13. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  14. Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

    2018-04-01

    Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also

  15. Cloudiness and weather variation in central Svalbard in July 2013 as related to atmospheric circulation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Láska, K.; Chládová, Zuzana; Ambrožová, K.; Husák, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 2 (2013), s. 184-195 ISSN 1805-0689 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * climate * cloudiness * weather * Svalbard * Arctic Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation http://www.sci.muni.cz/CPR/6cislo/Laska.pdf

  16. Aspects on interactions between mid- to high latitude atmospheric circulation and some surface processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrkjedal, Oeyvind

    2006-01-01

    degree of meridional circulation. The current general circulation models, including several of those used by the IPCC, show considerable disagreement in simulating present day high latitude climate. This is of major concern and reduces the confidence in future model projections of high latitude climate. To investigate how turbulent vertical exchange processes in the Arctic boundary layer is represented by the climate models a simulation with high vertical resolution in the lower part of the atmosphere is performed. This reveals that the coarse vertical resolution commonly employed in the climate models are unable to reproduce important exchange processes in the Arctic boundary layer. In the case of our model this results in a warm bias over the Arctic Ocean. By increasing the vertical resolution we achieve a better representation of vertical turbulent exchange processes with the result of reproducing more realistic surface fluxes and surface air temperatures. The thesis is based on three papers (author)

  17. Water tracers in the general circulation model ECHAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffmann, G.; Heimann, M.

    1993-01-01

    We have installed a water tracer model into the ECHAM General Circulation Model (GCM) parameterizing all fractionation processes of the stable water isotopes ( 1 H 2 18 O and 1 H 2 H 16 O). A five year simulation was performed under present day conditions. We focus on the applicability of such a water tracer model to obtain information about the quality of the hydrological cycle of the GCM. The analysis of the simulated 1 H 2 18 O composition of the precipitation indicates too weak fractionated precipitation over the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and too strong fractionated precipitation over large areas of the tropical and subtropical land masses. We can show that these deficiencies are connected with problems of model quantities such as the precipitation and the resolution of the orography. The linear relationship between temperature and the δ 18 O value, i.e. the Dansgaard slope, is reproduced quite well in the model. The slope is slightly too flat and the strong correlation between temperature and δ 18 O vanishes at very low temperatures compared to the observations. (orig.)

  18. Prognostic cloud water in the Los Alamos general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristjansson, J.E.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1993-01-01

    Most of today's general circulation models (GCMS) have a greatly simplified treatment of condensation and clouds. Recent observational studies of the earth's radiation budget have suggested cloud-related feedback mechanisms to be of tremendous importance for the issue of global change. Thus, there has arisen an urgent need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in GCMS, especially as the clouds relate to radiation. In the present paper, we investigate the effects of introducing pregnostic cloud water into the Los Alamos GCM. The cloud water field, produced by both stratiform and convective condensation, is subject to 3-dimensional advection and vertical diffusion. The cloud water enters the radiation calculations through the long wave emissivity calculations. Results from several sensitivity simulations show that realistic cloud water and precipitation fields can be obtained with the applied method. Comparisons with observations show that the most realistic results are obtained when more sophisticated schemes for moist convection are introduced at the same time. The model's cold bias is reduced and the zonal winds become stronger, due to more realistic tropical convection

  19. Prognostic cloud water in the Los Alamos general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristjansson, J.E.; Kao, C.Y.J.

    1994-01-01

    Most of today's general circulation models (GCMs) have a greatly simplified treatment of condensation and clouds. Recent observational studies of the earth's radiation budget have suggested cloud-related feedback mechanisms to be of tremendous importance for the issue of global change. Thus, an urgent need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in GCMs has arisen, especially as the clouds relate to radiation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of introducing prognostic cloud water into the Los Alamos GCM. The cloud water field, produced by both stratiform and convective condensation, is subject to 3-dimensional advection and vertical diffusion. The cloud water enters the radiation calculations through the longwave emissivity calculations. Results from several sensitivity simulations show that realistic water and precipitation fields can be obtained with the applied method. Comparisons with observations show that the most realistic results are obtained when more sophisticated schemes for moist convection are introduced at the same time. The model's cold bias is reduced and the zonal winds becomes stronger because of more realistic tropical convection

  20. Atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during dry and wet periods and extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuille, M.

    1999-11-01

    The atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during composite WET and DRY periods and during HIGH and LOW index phases of the Southern Oscillation was investigated using daily radiosonde data from Antofagasta (Chile), Salta (Argentina), Lima (Peru) and La Paz (Bolivia), daily precipitation data from the Bolivian/Chilean border between 18° and 19°S and monthly NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data between 1960 and 1998. In austral summer (DJF) the atmosphere during WET periods is characterized by easterly wind anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere over the Altiplano, resulting in increased moisture influx from the interior of the continent near the Altiplano surface. The Bolivian High is intensified and displaced southward. On the other hand, westerly winds usually prevail during DRY summer periods, preventing the moisture transport from the east from reaching the western Altiplano. Precipitation tends to be deficient over the western Bolivian Altiplano during LOW index summers and above average during HIGH and LOW+1 summers, but the relation is weak and statistically insignificant. LOW summers feature broadly similar atmospheric circulation anomalies as DRY periods and can be regarded as an extended DRY period or as a summer with increased occurrence of DRY episodes. HIGH summers, and to a lesser degree LOW+1 summers, are characterized by broadly opposite atmospheric characteristics, featuring a more pronounced Bolivian High located significantly further south, and easterly wind anomalies over the Altiplano. In winter (JJA) precipitation events are rare; these are associated with increased northerly and westerly wind components, reduced pressure and temperature, and increased specific humidity over the entire Altiplano. Atmospheric circulation anomalies during LOW periods are less pronounced in austral winter (JJA) than in summer, but generally feature similar changes (increased temperatures and a vertically

  1. A 1260-year control integration with the coupled ECHAM1/LSG general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storch, J.S. von [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Kharin, V [Canadian Climate Centre, Victoria, BC (Canada); Cubasch, U [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Hegerl, G C [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Schriever, D [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Storch, H von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Zorita, E [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1996-05-01

    A 1260-year integration generated by the ECHAM1/LSG coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is analyzed in this paper. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of the model atmosphere and the model ocean, and on the variations of the final quasi-stationary atmosphere-ocean system. The evolution of the coupled system is affected by the globally integrated fluxes of heat and fresh water, the coupling shock induced by different types of fluxes prior to and after the coupling, and the insufficient spin-up of the deep ocean prior to the coupling. It is suggested that the flux correction with its unsatisfactory formulation over sea ice areas does not play the crucial role in causing the initial drift of the system. The main question concerning the atmospheric variations is whether the spatial structures of variations on short time scales are similar to those on long time scales. The answer to this question is yes. The questions concerning the oceanic variations are what are their dominant modes and to what extent are variations of different parts of the oceanic circulation related to each other. It is shown that the dominant oceanic variations are located in the North Pacific and at the southern flank of the mean position of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in the areas where deep water from three oceans meets the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. A correlation analysis indicates further that an anomalous outflow from (inflow into) the deep Atlantic is related to an anomalous outflow from (inflow into) the deep Indian Ocean and an anomalous eastward (westward) flow along the Antarctic coast. (orig.)

  2. Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

  3. Transient Atmospheric Circulation Changes in a Grand ensemble of Idealized CO2 Increase Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.; Kornblueh, L.

    2017-12-01

    The yearly evolution with increasing forcing of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is examined in a 68-member ensemble of 1pctCO2 scenario experiments performed with the MPI-ESM model. Each member of the experiment ensemble is integrated for 155 years, from initial conditions taken from a 2000-yr long pre-industrial control climate experiment. The 1pctCO2 scenario experiments are conducted following the protocol of including as external forcing only a CO2 concentration increase at 1%/year, till quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. MPI-ESM is the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (including coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and seaice). By averaging over the 68 members (ensemble mean), atmospheric variability is greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to investigate the sensitivity to the climate state of the atmospheric response to CO2 doubling. Indicators of global change show the expected monotonic evolution with increasing CO2 and a weak dependence of the thermodynamical response to CO2 doubling on the climate state. The surface climate response of the atmospheric circulation, diagnosed for instance by the pressure at sea level, and the eddy-driven jet response show instead a marked dependence to the climate state, for the Northern winter season. We find that as the CO2 concentration increases above doubling, Northern winter trends in some indicators of atmospheric circulation changes decrease or even reverse, posing the question on what are the causes of this nonlinear behavior. The investigation of the role of stationary waves, the meridional overturning circulation, the decrease in Arctic sea ice and the stratospheric vortex points to the latter as a plausible cause of such nonlinear response.

  4. Geophysical excitation of LOD/UT1 estimated from the output of the global circulation models of the atmosphere - ERA-40 reanalysis and of the ocean - OMCT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korbacz, A.; Brzeziński, A.; Thomas, M.

    2008-04-01

    We use new estimates of the global atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta (AAM, OAM) to study the influence on LOD/UT1. The AAM series was calculated from the output fields of the atmospheric general circulation model ERA-40 reanalysis. The OAM series is an outcome of global ocean model OMCT simulation driven by global fields of the atmospheric parameters from the ERA- 40 reanalysis. The excitation data cover the period between 1963 and 2001. Our calculations concern atmospheric and oceanic effects in LOD/UT1 over the periods between 20 days and decades. Results are compared to those derived from the alternative AAM/OAM data sets.

  5. Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

  6. The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

    2017-10-01

    Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

  7. Modeling of atmospheric circulation at mid- and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere - evaluation studies using ARPEGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Yongjia

    2007-03-15

    In the present thesis the author evaluate experiments with the atmospheric part of BCM (Bergen climate model), named ARPEGE, performed for present day climate during the last 50 years. The objectives have been to evaluate the ability of ARPEGE to simulate the general circulation at mid- and high northern latitudes in winter. Particular emphasis is put on the dependence of systematic errors on the horizontal resolution in the model, the climatology and variability of storm tracks, the poleward energy transport and the North Atlantic winter circulation expressed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; e.g. Hurrell 1995). In addition, use of ARPEGE for downscaling purposes has been evaluated. The work on storm tracks, poleward energy transport and the variability of the NAO include pure observational studies, mainly based on reanalyses, bringing forward new knowledge on extratropical storm tracks, heat transport variations and links between Eurasian snow cover and wintertime NAO

  8. The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline

    2017-10-01

    In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

  9. THOR: A NEW AND FLEXIBLE GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL TO EXPLORE PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendonça, João M.; Grimm, Simon L.; Grosheintz, Luc; Heng, Kevin, E-mail: joao.mendonca@csh.unibe.ch, E-mail: kevin.heng@csh.unibe.ch [University of Bern, Center for Space and Habitability, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012, Bern (Switzerland)

    2016-10-01

    We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model (GCM) named THOR that solves the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the “pole problem” (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the “spring dynamics” technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational time step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our GCM by reproducing the Earth and hot-Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs), which allows for physics modules (radiative transfer, clouds, chemistry) to be added in the future, and is part of the open-source Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).

  10. THOR: A NEW AND FLEXIBLE GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL TO EXPLORE PLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendonça, João M.; Grimm, Simon L.; Grosheintz, Luc; Heng, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model (GCM) named THOR that solves the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the “pole problem” (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the “spring dynamics” technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational time step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our GCM by reproducing the Earth and hot-Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs), which allows for physics modules (radiative transfer, clouds, chemistry) to be added in the future, and is part of the open-source Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).

  11. THREE-DIMENSIONAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF HOT JUPITERS ON HIGHLY ECCENTRIC ORBITS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kataria, T.; Showman, A. P.; Lewis, N. K.; Fortney, J. J.; Marley, M. S.; Freedman, R. S.

    2013-01-01

    Of the over 800 exoplanets detected to date, over half are on non-circular orbits, with eccentricities as high as 0.93. Such orbits lead to time-variable stellar heating, which has major implications for the planet's atmospheric dynamical regime. However, little is known about the fundamental dynamical regime of such planetary atmospheres, and how it may influence the observations of these planets. Therefore, we present a systematic study of hot Jupiters on highly eccentric orbits using the SPARC/MITgcm, a model which couples a three-dimensional general circulation model (the MITgcm) with a plane-parallel, two-stream, non-gray radiative transfer model. In our study, we vary the eccentricity and orbit-average stellar flux over a wide range. We demonstrate that the eccentric hot Jupiter regime is qualitatively similar to that of planets on circular orbits; the planets possess a superrotating equatorial jet and exhibit large day-night temperature variations. As in Showman and Polvani, we show that the day-night heating variations induce momentum fluxes equatorward to maintain the superrotating jet throughout its orbit. We find that as the eccentricity and/or stellar flux is increased (corresponding to shorter orbital periods), the superrotating jet strengthens and narrows, due to a smaller Rossby deformation radius. For a select number of model integrations, we generate full-orbit light curves and find that the timing of transit and secondary eclipse viewed from Earth with respect to periapse and apoapse can greatly affect what we see in infrared (IR) light curves; the peak in IR flux can lead or lag secondary eclipse depending on the geometry. For those planets that have large temperature differences from dayside to nightside and rapid rotation rates, we find that the light curves can exhibit 'ringing' as the planet's hottest region rotates in and out of view from Earth. These results can be used to explain future observations of eccentric transiting exoplanets.

  12. Integrated cumulus ensemble and turbulence (ICET): An integrated parameterization system for general circulation models (GCMs)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.L.; Frank, W.M.; Young, G.S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Successful simulations of the global circulation and climate require accurate representation of the properties of shallow and deep convective clouds, stable-layer clouds, and the interactions between various cloud types, the boundary layer, and the radiative fluxes. Each of these phenomena play an important role in the global energy balance, and each must be parameterized in a global climate model. These processes are highly interactive. One major problem limiting the accuracy of parameterizations of clouds and other processes in general circulation models (GCMs) is that most of the parameterization packages are not linked with a common physical basis. Further, these schemes have not, in general, been rigorously verified against observations adequate to the task of resolving subgrid-scale effects. To address these problems, we are designing a new Integrated Cumulus Ensemble and Turbulence (ICET) parameterization scheme, installing it in a climate model (CCM2), and evaluating the performance of the new scheme using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites.

  13. A numerical three-dimensional ocean general circulation and radionuclides dispersion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, M.; Marti, O.

    1988-01-01

    The dispersion of radioactive waste disposed of in the deep-sea or transferred from the atmosphere is a complex hydrodynamic problem concerned by space scales as large as the world ocean. The recent development in the high-speed computers has led to significant progress in ocean modelling and now allows a thorough improvement in the accuracy of the simulations of the nuclides dispersion in the sea. A three-dimensional ocean general circulation model has been recently developed in France for research and engineering purposes. The model solves the primitive equation of the ocean hydrodynamics and the advection-diffusion equation for any dissolved tracer. The code has been fully vectorized and multitasked on 1 to 4 processors of the CRAY-2

  14. Evaluation of water vapor distribution in general circulation models using satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soden, Brian J.; Bretherton, Francis P.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a comparison of the water vapor distribution obtained from two general circulation models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM), with satellite observations of total precipitable water (TPW) from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) from GOES. Overall, both models are successful in capturing the primary features of the observed water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation. For the ECMWF model, however, a systematic moist bias in TPW is noted over well-known stratocumulus regions in the eastern subtropical oceans. Comparison with radiosonde profiles suggests that this problem is attributable to difficulties in modeling the shallowness of the boundary layer and large vertical water vapor gradients which characterize these regions. In comparison, the CCM is more successful in capturing the low values of TPW in the stratocumulus regions, although it tends to exhibit a dry bias over the eastern half of the subtropical oceans and a corresponding moist bias in the western half. The CCM also significantly overestimates the daily variability of the moisture fields in convective regions, suggesting a problem in simulating the temporal nature of moisture transport by deep convection. Comparison of the monthly mean UTH distribution indicates generally larger discrepancies than were noted for TPW owing to the greater influence of large-scale dynamical processes in determining the distribution of UTH. In particular, the ECMWF model exhibits a distinct dry bias along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moist bias over the subtropical descending branches of the Hadley cell, suggesting an underprediction in the strength of the Hadley circulation. The CCM, on the other hand, demonstrates greater discrepancies in UTH than are observed for the ECMWF model, but none that are as

  15. Mechanism of the relations between the changes of the geomagnetic field, solar corpuscular radiation, atmospheric circulation, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucha, Vaclav

    1980-01-01

    The correlations between geomagnetic, climatic, and meteorological phenomena were investigated with the object of demonstrating the function of the geomagnetic pole and changes of its position in controlling the climate and weather. A tentative model has been proposed to enable one to understand the causes of the generation of glacial and interglacial periods, as well as the causes which effect changes of climate (Bucha, 1976a). The analyses of various types of geomagnetic and atmospheric manifestations have disclosed certain associations. The coincidence in the occurrence of increased spectral densities with regard to geomagnetic activity and the variations of atmospheric pressure over the geomagnetic pole shows the relation between their periodicities. The results imply that the changes in the intensity of corpuscular radiation, indicated by geomagnetic activity, affect the temperature and pressure patterns over the geomagnetic pole and polar region significantly, so that a pronounced modification of the general circulation may take place, as shown schematically (Bucha, 1976b). As a result of investigating the relations between the variations of geomagnetic activity and meteorological factors a mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships and a model of the changes of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere are proposed; this provides a probable explanation of the causes of the fluctuation of the climate, of dry and cold periods and of differing vegetation conditions in various years in dependence on the intensity of geomagnetic activity (Bucha, 1976b, 1977a). (author)

  16. Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Nyung

    2008-10-01

    Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum

  17. Distribution of cocaine on banknotes in general circulation in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, C G G; Wilson, A; Sleeman, R; Morgan, B E M; Huish, J

    2017-01-01

    A study of the quantities of cocaine on banknotes in general circulation was conducted to investigate regional variations across England and Wales. No meaningful support was found for the proposition that there is regional variation in the quantities of cocaine in banknotes in general circulation in England and Wales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The annual cycle of stratospheric water vapor in a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mote, Philip W.

    1995-01-01

    The application of general circulation models (GCM's) to stratospheric chemistry and transport both permits and requires a thorough investigation of stratospheric water vapor. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has redesigned its GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2), to enable studies of the chemistry and transport of tracers including water vapor; the importance of water vapor to the climate and chemistry of the stratosphere requires that it be better understood in the atmosphere and well represented in the model. In this study, methane is carried as a tracer and converted to water; this simple chemistry provides an adequate representation of the upper stratospheric water vapor source. The cold temperature bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which the CCM2 shares with other GCM's, produces excessive dehydration in the southern hemisphere, but this dry bias can be ameliorated by setting a minimum vapor pressure. The CCM2's water vapor distribution and seasonality compare favorably with observations in many respects, though seasonal variations including the upper stratospheric semiannual oscillation are generally too small. Southern polar dehydration affects midlatitude water vapor mixing ratios by a few tenths of a part per million, mostly after the demise of the vortex. The annual cycle of water vapor in the tropical and northern midlatitude lower stratosphere is dominated by drying at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor has a longer adjustment time than methane and had not reached equilibrium at the end of the 9 years simulated here.

  19. Impacts of SST anomalies on the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation: a case study for the northern winter 1995/1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Losada, T.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departmento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Mechoso, C.R.; Ma, H.Y. [University of California Los Angeles, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2007-12-15

    The present paper selects the northern winter of December 1995-February 1996 for a case study on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. In the Atlantic, the selected winter was characterized by positive SST anomalies over the northern subtropics and east of Newfoundland, and negative anomalies along the US coast. A weak La Nina event developed in the Pacific. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was low, precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was anomalously high, and precipitation over northern Europe was anomalously low. The method of study consists of assessing the sensitivity of ensemble simulations by the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (UCLA AGCM) to SST anomalies from the observation, which are prescribed either in the World Oceans, the Atlantic Ocean only, or the subtropical North Atlantic only. The results obtained are compared with a control run that uses global, time-varying climatological SST. The ensemble simulations with global and Atlantic-only SST anomalies both produce results that resemble the observations over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. It is suggested that the anomalous behavior of the atmosphere in the selected winter over those regions, therefore, was primarily determined by conditions within the Atlantic basin. The simulated fields in the tropical North Atlantic show anomalous upward motion and lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) in the atmosphere overlying the positive SST anomalies. Consistently, the subtropical jet intensifies and its core moves equatorward, and precipitation increases over northern Africa and southern Europe. The results also suggest that the SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic only do not suffice to produce the atmospheric anomalies observed in the basin during the selected winter. The extratropical SST anomalies would provide a key contribution through increased

  20. The Double ITCZ Syndrome in GCMs: A Coupled Problem among Convection, Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

    2017-12-01

    The double ITCZ bias has been a long-standing problem in coupled atmosphere-ocean models. A previous study indicates that uncertainty in the projection of global warming due to doubling of CO2 is closely related to the double ITCZ biases in global climate models. Thus, reducing the double ITCZ biases is not only important to getting the current climate features right, but also important to narrowing the uncertainty in future climate projection. In this work, we will first review the possible factors contributing to the ITCZ problem. Then, we will focus on atmospheric convection, presenting recent progress in alleviating the double ITCZ problem and its sensitivity to details of convective parameterization, including trigger conditions for convection onset, convective memory, entrainment rate, updraft model and closure in the NCAR CESM1. These changes together can result in dramatic improvements in the simulation of ITCZ. Results based on both atmospheric only and coupled simulations with incremental changes of convection scheme will be shown to demonstrate the roles of convection parameterization and coupled interaction between convection, atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation in the simulation of ITCZ.

  1. Prediction of cloud droplet number in a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    We have applied the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) bulk cloud microphysics parameterization to the treatment of stratiform clouds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). The RAMS predicts mass concentrations of cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow, and number concnetration of ice. We have introduced the droplet number conservation equation to predict droplet number and it`s dependence on aerosols.

  2. The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Hoskins, Brian; Shepherd, Ted

    2016-04-01

    Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region which may have large socio-economic impacts. However, there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected precipitation reduction and this limits the possibility to inform effective adaptation planning. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the precipitation change and the time of emergence of the Mediterranean precipitation response. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. We also find that the precipitation response to climate change might already emerge from internal variability by 2025 relative to 1960-1990 according to the climate models with a large circulation response. This implies that it might soon be possible to test model projections using observations. Finally, some of the mechanisms which are important for the Mediterranean circulation response in the CMIP5 models are discussed.

  3. Dynamics and transport in the stratosphere : Simulations with a general circulation mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn

    2005-01-01

    The middle atmosphere is strongly affected by two of the world's most important environmental problems: global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), respectively. General circulation models with coupled chemistry are a key tool to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between dynamics, chemistry and radiation in the middle atmosphere. A key problem of such models is that they generate their own meteorology, and thus cannot be used for comparisons with instantaneous measurements. This thesis presents the first application of a simple data assimilation method, Newtonian relaxation, to reproduce realistic synoptical conditions in a state-of-the-art middle atmosphere general circulation model, MA-ECHAM. By nudging the model's meteorology slightly towards analyzed observations from a weather forecasting system (ECMWF), we have simulated specific atmospheric processes during particular meteorological episodes, such as the 1999/2000 Arctic winter. The nudging technique is intended to interfere as little as possible with the model's own dynamics. In fact, we found that we could even limit the nudging to the troposphere, leaving the middle atmosphere entirely free. In that setup, the model realistically reproduced many aspects of the instantaneous meteorology of the middle atmosphere, such as the unusually early major warming and breakup of the 2002 Antarctic vortex. However, we found that this required careful interpolation of the nudging data, and a correct choice of nudging parameters. We obtained the best results when we first projected the nudging data onto the model's normal modes so that we could filter out the (spurious) fast components. In a four-year simulation, for which we also introduced an additional nudging of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, we found that the model reproduced much of the interannual variability throughout the

  4. An advanced method for classifying atmospheric circulation types based on prototypes connectivity graph

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagouras, Athanassios; Argiriou, Athanassios A.; Flocas, Helena A.; Economou, George; Fotopoulos, Spiros

    2012-11-01

    Classification of weather maps at various isobaric levels as a methodological tool is used in several problems related to meteorology, climatology, atmospheric pollution and to other fields for many years. Initially the classification was performed manually. The criteria used by the person performing the classification are features of isobars or isopleths of geopotential height, depending on the type of maps to be classified. Although manual classifications integrate the perceptual experience and other unquantifiable qualities of the meteorology specialists involved, these are typically subjective and time consuming. Furthermore, during the last years different approaches of automated methods for atmospheric circulation classification have been proposed, which present automated and so-called objective classifications. In this paper a new method of atmospheric circulation classification of isobaric maps is presented. The method is based on graph theory. It starts with an intelligent prototype selection using an over-partitioning mode of fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithm, proceeds to a graph formulation for the entire dataset and produces the clusters based on the contemporary dominant sets clustering method. Graph theory is a novel mathematical approach, allowing a more efficient representation of spatially correlated data, compared to the classical Euclidian space representation approaches, used in conventional classification methods. The method has been applied to the classification of 850 hPa atmospheric circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean. The evaluation of the automated methods is performed by statistical indexes; results indicate that the classification is adequately comparable with other state-of-the-art automated map classification methods, for a variable number of clusters.

  5. Climate change on the Tibetan Plateau in response to shifting atmospheric circulation since the LGM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liping; Lü, Xinmiao; Wang, Junbo; Peng, Ping; Kasper, Thomas; Daut, Gerhard; Haberzettl, Torsten; Frenzel, Peter; Li, Quan; Yang, Ruimin; Schwalb, Antje; Mäusbacher, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is primarily influenced by the northern hemispheric middle latitude Westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The extent, long-distance effects and potential long-term changes of these two atmospheric circulations are not yet fully understood. Here, we analyse modern airborne pollen in a transition zone of seasonally alternating dominance of the Westerlies and the ISM to develop a pollen discrimination index (PDI) that allows us to distinguish between the intensities of the two circulation systems. This index is applied to interpret a continuous lacustrine sedimentary record from Lake Nam Co covering the past 24 cal kyr BP to investigate long-term variations in the atmospheric circulation systems. Climatic variations on the central TP widely correspond to those of the North Atlantic (NA) realm, but are controlled through different mechanisms resulting from the changing climatic conditions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). During the LGM, until 16.5 cal kyr BP, the TP was dominated by the Westerlies. After 16.5 cal kyr BP, the climatic conditions were mainly controlled by the ISM. From 11.6 to 9 cal kyr BP, the TP was exposed to enhanced solar radiation at the low latitudes, resulting in greater water availability. PMID:26294226

  6. Weak circulation theorems as a way of distinguishing between generalized gravitation theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enosh, M.

    1980-01-01

    It was proved in a previous paper that a generalized circulation theorem characterizes Einstein's theory of gravitation as a special case of a more general theory of gravitation, which is also based on the principle of equivalence. Here the question of whether it is possible to weaken this circulation theorem in such ways that it would imply more general theories than Einstein's is posed. This problem is solved. Principally, there are two possibilities. One of them is essentially Weyl's theory. (author)

  7. Estimate of the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model: a sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrieri, A.

    2009-01-01

    In this report the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model of intermediate complexity has been estimated numerically. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out by varying the equator-to-pole temperature difference, the space resolution and the value of some parameters employed by the model. Chaotic and non-chaotic regimes of circulation have been found. [it

  8. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.

    2010-05-01

    We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

  9. Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Toreti

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

  10. Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions – Part 2: The Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Walker

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol perturbations over selected land regions are imposed in Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4 general circulation model (GCM to assess the influence of increasing aerosol concentrations on regional circulation patterns and precipitation in four selected regions: India, Africa, and North and South America. Part 1 of this paper addresses the responses to aerosol perturbations in India and Africa. This paper presents the same for aerosol perturbations over the Americas. GEOS-4 is forced with prescribed aerosols based on climatological data, which interact with clouds using a prognostic scheme for cloud microphysics including aerosol nucleation of water and ice cloud hydrometeors. In clear-sky conditions the aerosols interact with radiation. Thus the model includes comprehensive physics describing the aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate (hereafter ADE and AIE respectively. Each simulation is started from analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through June-July-August of each of the six years: 1982–1987 to provide a 6-ensemble set. Results are presented for the difference between simulations with double the climatological aerosol concentration and one-half the climatological aerosol concentration for three experiments: two where the ADE and AIE are applied separately and one in which both the ADE and AIE are applied. The ADE and AIE both yield reductions in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere and surface while the direct absorption of shortwave radiation contributes a net radiative heating in the atmosphere. A large net heating of the atmosphere is also apparent over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean that is attributable to the large aerosol perturbation imposed over Africa. This atmospheric warming and the depression of the surface pressure over North America contribute to a northward shift of the inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over northern South America, an increase in

  11. Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions &ndash Part 2: The Americas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Wilcox

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol perturbations over selected land regions are imposed in Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4 general circulation model (GCM to assess the influence of increasing aerosol concentrations on regional circulation patterns and precipitation in four selected regions: India, Africa, and North and South America. Part 1 of this paper addresses the responses to aerosol perturbations in India and Africa. This paper presents the same for aerosol perturbations over the Americas. GEOS-4 is forced with prescribed aerosols based on climatological data, which interact with clouds using a prognostic scheme for cloud microphysics including aerosol nucleation of water and ice cloud hydrometeors. In clear-sky conditions the aerosols interact with radiation. Thus the model includes comprehensive physics describing the aerosol direct and indirect effects on climate (hereafter ADE and AIE respectively. Each simulation is started from analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through June-July-August of each of the six years: 1982–1987 to provide a 6-ensemble set. Results are presented for the difference between simulations with double the climatological aerosol concentration and one-half the climatological aerosol concentration for three experiments: two where the ADE and AIE are applied separately and one in which both the ADE and AIE are applied. The ADE and AIE both yield reductions in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere and surface while the direct absorption of shortwave radiation contributes a net radiative heating in the atmosphere. A large net heating of the atmosphere is also apparent over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean that is attributable to the large aerosol perturbation imposed over Africa. This atmospheric warming and the depression of the surface pressure over North America contribute to a northward shift of the inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over northern South America, an increase in

  12. Impact of Dust on Mars Surface Albedo and Energy Flux with LMD General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, D.; Flanner, M.; Millour, E.; Martinez, G.

    2015-12-01

    Mars, just like Earth experience different seasons because of its axial tilt (about 25°). This causes growth and retreat of snow cover (primarily CO2) in Martian Polar regions. The perennial caps are the only place on the planet where condensed H2O is available at surface. On Mars, as much as 30% atmospheric CO2 deposits in each hemisphere depending upon the season. This leads to a significant variation on planet's surface albedo and hence effecting the amount of solar flux absorbed or reflected at the surface. General Circulation Model (GCM) of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) currently uses observationally derived surface albedo from Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument for the polar caps. These TES albedo values do not have any inter-annual variability, and are independent of presence of any dust/impurity on surface. Presence of dust or other surface impurities can significantly reduce the surface albedo especially during and right after a dust storm. This change will also be evident in the surface energy flux interactions. Our work focuses on combining earth based Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with current state of GCM to incorporate the impact of dust on Martian surface albedo, and hence the energy flux. Inter-annual variability of surface albedo and planet's top of atmosphere (TOA) energy budget along with their correlation with currently available mission data will be presented.

  13. Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

    KAUST Repository

    Philbin, R.

    2015-05-22

    This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields\\' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

  14. Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

    KAUST Repository

    Philbin, R.; Jun, M.

    2015-01-01

    This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

  15. Impacts of Early Summer Eurasian Snow Cover Change on Atmospheric Circulation in Northern Mid-Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozawa, T.

    2016-12-01

    Recently, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has developed a new long-term snow cover extent (SCE) product using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data spanning from 1980's to date. This new product (JAXA/SCE) has higher spatial resolution and smaller commission error compared with traditional SCE dataset of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SCE). Continuity of the algorithm is another strong point in JAXA/SCE. According to the new JAXA/SCE dataset, the Eurasian SCE has been significantly retreating since 1980's, especially in late spring and early summer. Here, we investigate impacts of early summer Eurasian snow cover change on atmospheric circulation in Northern mid-latitudes, especially over the East Asia, using the new JAXA/SCE dataset and a few reanalysis data. We will present analyzed results on relationships between early summer SCE anomaly over the Eurasia and changes in atmospheric circulations such as upper level zonal jets (changes in strength, positions, etc.) over the East Asia.

  16. The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. S. R. Pausata

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr before present was a period of low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, when vast ice sheets covered large parts of North America and Europe. Paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling studies suggest that the atmospheric circulation was substantially altered compared to today, both in terms of its mean state and its variability. Here we present a suite of coupled model simulations designed to investigate both the separate and combined influences of the main LGM boundary condition changes (greenhouse gases, ice sheet topography and ice sheet albedo on the mean state and variability of the atmospheric circulation as represented by sea level pressure (SLP and 200-hPa zonal wind in the North Atlantic sector. We find that ice sheet topography accounts for most of the simulated changes during the LGM. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet albedo affect the SLP gradient in the North Atlantic, but the overall placement of high and low pressure centers is controlled by topography. Additional analysis shows that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and sea ice edge position do not substantially influence the pattern of the climatological-mean SLP field, SLP variability or the position of the North Atlantic jet in the LGM.

  17. Study of the behaviour of artificial radioactive aerosols. Applications to some problems of atmospheric circulation (1963); Etude du comportement dcs aerosols radioactifs artificiels. Applications a quelques problemes de circulation atmospherique (1963)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambert, G. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1963-11-15

    The aim of this work, consists in the examination of the behaviour of radioactive aerosols produced in the atmosphere by nuclear explosions, in order to deduce the most general laws governing atmospheric circulation and diffusion. After having given a general table of the radioactive aerosols present the authors consider the validity and the precision of the measurement methods and the concentration of the aerosols at ground level and in the upper atmosphere, as well as their deposition on the ground. The existence is thus demonstrated of a tropospheric equatorial barrier and of discontinuous and seasonal aspects of stratosphere-troposphere transfers. The role is shown of precipitations and dry auto-filtration in the lower atmosphere cleaning processes. This work makes it possible to describe the general behaviour of dust from the stratosphere, and to improve the total radioactive contamination of the globe. (author) [French] L'objectif de ce travail consiste a examiner le comportement des aerosols radioactifs introduits dans l'atmosphere par les explosions nucleaires, pour en deduire les lois les plus generals de la circulation et diffusion atmospheriques. Apres avoir dresse un tableau d'ensemble des aerosols radioactifs presents, on examine la validite et la precision des methodes de mesure de leur concentration, au niveau du sol et en haute atmosphere, ainsi que de leur depot a la surface du sol. On met ainsi en evidence l'existence d'une barriere equatoriale tropospherique; l'aspect discontinu et saisonnier des transferts stratosphere-troposphere; le role des precipitations et de l'auto-filtration seche, dans les processus de nettoyage de la basse atmosphere. Ces etudes permettent de decrire le comportement general des poussieres d'origine stratospherique et d'ameliorer le bilan de la contamination radioactive du globe. (auteur)

  18. Study of the behaviour of artificial radioactive aerosols. Applications to some problems of atmospheric circulation (1963); Etude du comportement dcs aerosols radioactifs artificiels. Applications a quelques problemes de circulation atmospherique (1963)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lambert, G [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1963-11-15

    The aim of this work, consists in the examination of the behaviour of radioactive aerosols produced in the atmosphere by nuclear explosions, in order to deduce the most general laws governing atmospheric circulation and diffusion. After having given a general table of the radioactive aerosols present the authors consider the validity and the precision of the measurement methods and the concentration of the aerosols at ground level and in the upper atmosphere, as well as their deposition on the ground. The existence is thus demonstrated of a tropospheric equatorial barrier and of discontinuous and seasonal aspects of stratosphere-troposphere transfers. The role is shown of precipitations and dry auto-filtration in the lower atmosphere cleaning processes. This work makes it possible to describe the general behaviour of dust from the stratosphere, and to improve the total radioactive contamination of the globe. (author) [French] L'objectif de ce travail consiste a examiner le comportement des aerosols radioactifs introduits dans l'atmosphere par les explosions nucleaires, pour en deduire les lois les plus generals de la circulation et diffusion atmospheriques. Apres avoir dresse un tableau d'ensemble des aerosols radioactifs presents, on examine la validite et la precision des methodes de mesure de leur concentration, au niveau du sol et en haute atmosphere, ainsi que de leur depot a la surface du sol. On met ainsi en evidence l'existence d'une barriere equatoriale tropospherique; l'aspect discontinu et saisonnier des transferts stratosphere-troposphere; le role des precipitations et de l'auto-filtration seche, dans les processus de nettoyage de la basse atmosphere. Ces etudes permettent de decrire le comportement general des poussieres d'origine stratospherique et d'ameliorer le bilan de la contamination radioactive du globe. (auteur)

  19. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  20. Simulations of physics and chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds with a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchholz, J.

    2005-04-20

    A polar stratospheric cloud submodel has been developed and incorporated in a general circulation model including atmospheric chemistry (ECHAM5/MESSy). The formation and sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles can thus be simulated as well as heterogeneous chemical reactions that take place on the PSC particles. For solid PSC particle sedimentation, the need for a tailor-made algorithm has been elucidated. A sedimentation scheme based on first order approximations of vertical mixing ratio profiles has been developed. It produces relatively little numerical diffusion and can deal well with divergent or convergent sedimentation velocity fields. For the determination of solid PSC particle sizes, an efficient algorithm has been adapted. It assumes a monodisperse radii distribution and thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas phase and the solid particle phase. This scheme, though relatively simple, is shown to produce particle number densities and radii within the observed range. The combined effects of the representations of sedimentation and solid PSC particles on vertical H{sub 2}O and HNO{sub 3} redistribution are investigated in a series of tests. The formation of solid PSC particles, especially of those consisting of nitric acid trihydrate, has been discussed extensively in recent years. Three particle formation schemes in accordance with the most widely used approaches have been identified and implemented. For the evaluation of PSC occurrence a new data set with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage was available. A quantitative method for the comparison of simulation results and observations is developed and applied. It reveals that the relative PSC sighting frequency can be reproduced well with the PSC submodel whereas the detailed modelling of PSC events is beyond the scope of coarse global scale models. In addition to the development and evaluation of new PSC submodel components, parts of existing simulation programs have been

  1. An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) investigation of the Red Sea circulation: 2. Three-dimensional circulation in the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

    2003-03-01

    The three-dimensional circulation of the Red Sea is studied using a set of Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) simulations. The model performance is tested against the few available observations in the basin and shows generally good agreement with the main observed features of the circulation. The main findings of this analysis include an intensification of the along-axis flow toward the coasts, with a transition from western intensified boundary flow in the south to eastern intensified flow in the north, and a series of strong seasonal or permanent eddy-like features. Model experiments conducted with different forcing fields (wind-stress forcing only, surface buoyancy forcing only, or both forcings combined) showed that the circulation produced by the buoyancy forcing is stronger overall and dominates the wind-driven part of the circulation. The main circulation pattern is related to the seasonal buoyancy flux (mostly due to the evaporation), which causes the density to increase northward in the basin and produces a northward surface pressure gradient associated with the downward sloping of the sea surface. The response of the eastern boundary to the associated mean cross-basin geostrophic current depends on the stratification and β-effect. In the northern part of the basin this results in an eastward intensification of the northward surface flow associated with the presence of Kelvin waves while in the south the traditional westward intensification due to Rossby waves takes place. The most prominent gyre circulation pattern occurs in the north where a permanent cyclonic gyre is present that is involved in the formation of Red Sea Outflow Water (RSOW). Beneath the surface boundary currents are similarly intensified southward undercurrents that carry the RSOW to the sill to flow out of the basin into the Indian Ocean.

  2. THREE-DIMENSIONAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MODELS OF HD 189733b AND HD 209458b WITH CONSISTENT MAGNETIC DRAG AND OHMIC DISSIPATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauscher, Emily; Menou, Kristen

    2013-01-01

    We present the first three-dimensional circulation models for extrasolar gas giant atmospheres with geometrically and energetically consistent treatments of magnetic drag and ohmic dissipation. Atmospheric resistivities are continuously updated and calculated directly from the flow structure, strongly coupling the magnetic effects with the circulation pattern. We model the hot Jupiters HD 189733b (T eq ≈ 1200 K) and HD 209458b (T eq ≈ 1500 K) and test planetary magnetic field strengths from 0 to 30 G. We find that even at B = 3 G the atmospheric structure and circulation of HD 209458b are strongly influenced by magnetic effects, while the cooler HD 189733b remains largely unaffected, even in the case of B = 30 G and super-solar metallicities. Our models of HD 209458b indicate that magnetic effects can substantially slow down atmospheric winds, change circulation and temperature patterns, and alter observable properties. These models establish that longitudinal and latitudinal hot spot offsets, day-night flux contrasts, and planetary radius inflation are interrelated diagnostics of the magnetic induction process occurring in the atmospheres of hot Jupiters and other similarly forced exoplanets. Most of the ohmic heating occurs high in the atmosphere and on the dayside of the planet, while the heating at depth is strongly dependent on the internal heat flux assumed for the planet, with more heating when the deep atmosphere is hot. We compare the ohmic power at depth in our models, and estimates of the ohmic dissipation in the bulk interior (from general scaling laws), to evolutionary models that constrain the amount of heating necessary to explain the inflated radius of HD 209458b. Our results suggest that deep ohmic heating can successfully inflate the radius of HD 209458b for planetary magnetic field strengths of B ≥ 3-10 G.

  3. The Sinuosity of Atmospheric Circulation over North America and its Relationship to Arctic Climate Change and Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, F.; Martin, J. E.; Francis, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Recent research has suggested a relationship between mid-latitude weather and Arctic amplification (AA) of global climate change via a slower and wavier extratropical circulation inducing more extreme events. To test this hypothesis and to quantify the waviness of the extratropical flow, we apply a novel application of the geomorphological concept of sinuosity (SIN) over greater North America. SIN is defined as the ratio of the curvilinear length of a geopotential height contour to the perimeter of its equivalent latitude, where the contour and the equivalent latitude enclose the same area. We use 500 hPa daily heights from reanalysis and model simulations to calculate past and future SIN. The circulation exhibits a distinct annual cycle of maximum SIN (waviness) in summer and a minimum in winter, inversely related to the annual cycle of zonal wind speed. Positive trends in SIN have emerged in recent decades during winter and summer at several latitude bands, generally collocated with negative trends in zonal wind speeds. High values of SIN coincide with many prominent extreme-weather events, including Superstorm Sandy. RCP8.5 simulations (2006-2100) project a dipole pattern of zonal wind changes that varies seasonally. In winter, AA causes inflated heights over the Arctic relative to mid-latitudes and an associated weakening (strengthening) of the westerlies north (south) of 40N. The AA signal in summer is strongest over upper-latitude land, promoting localized atmospheric ridging aloft with lighter westerlies to the south and stronger zonal winds to the north. The changes in wind speeds in both seasons are inversely correlated with SIN, indicating a wavier circulation where the flow weakens. In summer the lighter winds over much of the U. S. resemble circulation anomalies observed during extreme summer heat and drought. Such changes may be linked to enhanced heating of upper-latitude land surfaces caused by earlier snow melt during spring-summer.

  4. An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) investigation of the Red Sea circulation, 1. Exchange between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

    2002-11-01

    The mechanisms involved in the seasonal exchange between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean are studied using an Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM), namely the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The model reproduces the basic characteristics of the seasonal circulation observed in the area of the strait of Bab el Mandeb. There is good agreement between model results and available observations on the strength of the exchange and the characteristics of the water masses involved, as well as the seasonal flow pattern. During winter, this flow consists of a typical inverse estuarine circulation, while during summer, the surface flow reverses, there is an intermediate inflow of relatively cold and fresh water, and the hypersaline outflow at the bottom of the strait is significantly reduced. Additional experiments with different atmospheric forcing (seasonal winds, seasonal thermohaline air-sea fluxes, or combinations) were performed in order to assess the role of the atmospheric forcing fields in the exchange flow at Bab el Mandeb. The results of both the wind- and thermohaline-driven experiments exhibit a strong seasonality at the area of the strait, which is in phase with the observations. However, it is the combination of both the seasonal pattern of the wind stress and the seasonal thermohaline forcing that can reproduce the observed seasonal variability at the strait. The importance of the seasonal cycle of the thermohaline forcing on the exchange flow pattern is also emphasized by these results. In the experiment where the thermohaline forcing is represented by its annual mean, the strength of the exchange is reduced almost by half.

  5. Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

    2017-04-01

    In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

  6. The GEM-Mars general circulation model for Mars: Description and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neary, L.; Daerden, F.

    2018-01-01

    GEM-Mars is a gridpoint-based three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) of the Mars atmosphere extending from the surface to approximately 150 km based on the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) model, part of the operational weather forecasting and data assimilation system for Canada. After the initial modification for Mars, the model has undergone considerable changes. GEM-Mars is now based on GEM 4.2.0 and many physical parameterizations have been added for Mars-specific atmospheric processes and surface-atmosphere exchange. The model simulates interactive carbon dioxide-, dust-, water- and atmospheric chemistry cycles. Dust and water ice clouds are radiatively active. Size distributed dust is lifted by saltation and dust devils. The model includes 16 chemical species (CO2, Argon, N2, O2, CO, H2O, CH4, O3, O(1D), O, H, H2, OH, HO2, H2O2 and O2(a1Δg)) and has fully interactive photochemistry (15 reactions) and gas-phase chemistry (31 reactions). GEM-Mars provides a good simulation of the water and ozone cycles. A variety of other passive tracers can be included for dedicated studies, such as the emission of methane. The model has both a hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic formulation, and together with a flexible grid definition provides a single platform for simulations on a variety of horizontal scales. The model code is fully parallelized using OMP and MPI. Model results are evaluated by comparison to a selection of observations from instruments on the surface and in orbit, relating to atmosphere and surface temperature and pressure, dust and ice content, polar ice mass, polar argon, and global water and ozone vertical columns. GEM-Mars will play an integral part in the analysis and interpretation of data that is received by the NOMAD spectrometer on the ESA-Roskosmos ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter. The present paper provides an overview of the current status and capabilities of the GEM-Mars model and lays the foundations for more in-depth studies in support

  7. Cold-season atmospheric response to the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gastineau, Guillaume; Frankignoul, Claude [LOCEAN/IPSL, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 place Jussieu, BP100, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2012-07-15

    The influence of the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the atmosphere is studied in multi-centennial simulations of six global climate models, using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). In all models, a significant but weak influence of the AMOC changes is found during the Northern Hemisphere cold-season, when the ocean leads the atmosphere by a few years. Although the oceanic pattern slightly varies, an intensification of the AMOC is followed in all models by a weak sea level pressure response that resembles a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The signal amplitude is typically 0.5 hPa and explains about 10% of the yearly variability of the NAO in all models. The atmospheric response seems to be due primarily due to an increase of the heat loss along the North Atlantic Current and the subpolar gyre, associated with an AMOC-driven warming. Sea-ice changes appear to be less important. The stronger heating is associated to a southward shift of the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity and a decrease of the eddy activity in the North Atlantic storm track, which is consistent with the equivalent barotropic perturbation resembling the negative phase of the NAO. This study thus provides some evidence of an atmospheric signature of the AMOC in the cold-season, which may have some implications for the decadal predictability of climate in the North Atlantic region. (orig.)

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Response to Episodic Arctic Warming in an Idealized Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hell, M. C.; Schneider, T.; Li, C.

    2017-12-01

    Recent Arctic sea ice loss has drawn attention as a potential driver of fall/winter circulation changes. Past work has shown that sea ice loss can be related to a stratospheric polar vortex breakdown, with the result of long-delayed surface weather phenomena in late winter/early spring. In this study, we separate the atmospheric dynamic components and mean timescales to episodic polar surface heat fluxes using large ensembles of an idealized GCM in absence of continents and seasons. The atmospheric ensemble-mean response is linear related to the surface forcing strength and insensitive to the forcing symmetry. Analyses in the Transformed Eulerian Mean show that the responses can be separated into 1) an in-phase thermal adjustment, and 2) a lagged, eddy-driven component invoking long-standing anomalies in the lower stratosphere. The mid-latitude adjustment to the episodically reduced baroclinity leads to stratosphere-directed eddy-heat fluxes, establishing a stratospheric temperature anomaly responsible for vortex break down. In addition, we discuss the dependence on the background state via correlation in ensemble member space. Thus, we range the role of arctic perturbations in the transient large-scale circulation.

  9. Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes P.; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-11-01

    Obtaining reliable reconstructions of long-term atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic region presents a persistent challenge to contemporary paleoclimate research, which has been addressed by a multitude of recent studies. In order to contribute a novel methodological aspect to this active field, we apply here evolving functional network analysis, a recently developed tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure of the Earth's climate system, to a set of Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By comparing the time-dependent inter-regional linkage structures of the obtained functional paleoclimate network representations to a recent multi-centennial NAO reconstruction, we identify co-variability between southern Greenland, Svalbard, and Fennoscandia as being indicative of a positive NAO phase, while connections from Greenland and Fennoscandia to central Europe are more pronounced during negative NAO phases. By drawing upon this correspondence, we use some key parameters of the evolving network structure to obtain a qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era (last 2000 years) using a linear regression model trained upon the existing shorter reconstruction.

  10. Using Green's Functions to initialize and adjust a global, eddying ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brix, H.; Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Jahn, O.; Wang, D.; Bowman, K.; Zhang, H.

    2015-11-01

    The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) Flux Project aims to attribute changes in the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide to spatially resolved fluxes by utilizing the full suite of NASA data, models, and assimilation capabilities. For the oceanic part of this project, we introduce ECCO2-Darwin, a new ocean biogeochemistry general circulation model based on combining the following pre-existing components: (i) a full-depth, eddying, global-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), (ii) an adjoint-method-based estimate of ocean circulation from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project, (iii) the MIT ecosystem model "Darwin", and (iv) a marine carbon chemistry model. Air-sea gas exchange coefficients and initial conditions of dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and oxygen are adjusted using a Green's Functions approach in order to optimize modeled air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data constraints include observations of carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) for 2009-2010, global air-sea CO2 flux estimates, and the seasonal cycle of the Takahashi et al. (2009) Atlas. The model sensitivity experiments (or Green's Functions) include simulations that start from different initial conditions as well as experiments that perturb air-sea gas exchange parameters and the ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon. The Green's Functions approach yields a linear combination of these sensitivity experiments that minimizes model-data differences. The resulting initial conditions and gas exchange coefficients are then used to integrate the ECCO2-Darwin model forward. Despite the small number (six) of control parameters, the adjusted simulation is significantly closer to the data constraints (37% cost function reduction, i.e., reduction in the model-data difference, relative to the baseline simulation) and to independent observations (e.g., alkalinity). The adjusted air-sea gas

  11. Climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns of Arabian dust in western Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Mohammad Saeed; Sarraf, B S; Zarrin, A; Rasouli, A A

    2017-08-28

    Being in vicinity of vast deserts, the west and southwest of Iran are characterized by high levels of dust events, which have adverse consequences on human health, ecosystems, and environment. Using ground based dataset of dust events in western Iran and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the atmospheric circulation patterns of dust events in the Arabian region and west of Iran are identified. The atmospheric circulation patterns which lead to dust events in the Arabian region and western Iran were classified into two main categories: the Shamal dust events that occurs in warm period of year and the frontal dust events as cold period pattern. In frontal dust events, the western trough or blocking pattern at mid-level leads to frontogenesis, instability, and air uplift at lower levels of troposphere in the southwest of Asia. Non-frontal is other pattern of dust event in the cold period and dust generation are due to the regional circulation systems at the lower level of troposphere. In Shamal wind pattern, the Saudi Arabian anticyclone, Turkmenistan anticyclone, and Zagros thermal low play the key roles in formation of this pattern. Summer and transitional patterns are two sub-categories of summer Shamal wind pattern. In summer trough pattern, the mid-tropospheric trough leads to intensify the surface thermal systems in the Middle East and causes instability and rising of wind speed in the region. In synthetic pattern of Shamal wind and summer trough, dust is created by the impact of a trough in mid-levels of troposphere as well as existing the mentioned regional systems which are contributed in formation of summer Shamal wind pattern.

  12. The Mars thermosphere. 2. General circulation with coupled dynamics and composition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bougher, S.W.; Roble, R.G.; Ridley, E.C.; Dickinson, R.E.

    1990-01-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) for the Earth's thermosphere has been modified to examine the three-dimensional structure and circulation of the upper mesosphere and thermosphere of Mars (MTGCM). The computational framework and major processes unique to a CO 2 thermosphere are similar to those utilized in a recent Venus TGCM. Solar EUV, UV, and IR heating alone combine to drive the Martian winds above ∼100 km. An equinox version of the code is used to examine the Mars global dynamics and structure for two specific observational periods spanning a range of solar activity: Viking 1 (July 1976) and Mariner 6-7 (August-September 1969). The MTGCM is then modified to predict the state of the Mars thermosphere for various combinations of solar and orbital conditions. Calculations show that no nightside cryosphere of the type observed on Venus is obtained on the Mars nightside. Instead, planetary rotation significantly modifies the winds and the day-to-night contrast in densities and temperatures, giving a diurnal behavior similar to the Earth under quiet solar conditions. Maximum exospheric temperatures are calculated near 1,500 LT (≤ 305 K), with minimum values at 0500 LT (≤ 175 K). The global temperature distribution is strongly modified by nightside adiabatic heating (subsidence) and dayside cooling (upwelling). The global winds also affect vertical density distributions; vertical eddy diffusion much weaker than used in previous one-dimensional models is required to maintain observed Viking profiles. A solar cycle variation in dayside exospheric temperatures of ∼195-305 K is simulated by the Viking and Mariner runs

  13. Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM): Global Structure and Dynamics Driven by Auroral and Joule Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougher, S. W.; J. Il. Waite, Jr.; Majeed, T.

    2005-01-01

    A growing multispectral database plus recent Galileo descent measurements are being used to construct a self-consistent picture of the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system. The proper characterization of Jupiter s upper atmosphere, embedded ionosphere, and auroral features requires the examination of underlying processes, including the feedbacks of energetics, neutral-ion dynamics, composition, and magnetospheric coupling. A fully 3-D Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM) has been developed and exercised to address global temperatures, three-component neutral winds, and neutral-ion species distributions. The domain of this JTGCM extends from 20-microbar (capturing hydrocarbon cooling) to 1.0 x 10(exp -4) nbar (including aurora/Joule heating processes). The resulting JTGCM has been fully spun-up and integrated for greater than or equal to40 Jupiter rotations. Results from three JTGCM cases incorporating moderate auroral heating, ion drag, and moderate to strong Joule heating processes are presented. The neutral horizontal winds at ionospheric heights vary from 0.5 km/s to 1.2 km/s, atomic hydrogen is transported equatorward, and auroral exospheric temperatures range from approx.1200-1300 K to above 3000 K, depending on the magnitude of Joule heating. The equatorial temperature profiles from the JTGCM are compared with the measured temperature structure from the Galileo AS1 data set. The best fit to the Galileo data implies that the major energy source for maintaining the equatorial temperatures is due to dynamical heating induced by the low-latitude convergence of the high-latitude-driven thermospheric circulation. Overall, the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system is highly variable and is shown to be strongly dependent on magnetospheric coupling which regulates Joule heating.

  14. Stable isotopes of fossil teeth corroborate key general circulation model predictions for the Last Glacial Maximum in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohn, Matthew J.; McKay, Moriah

    2010-11-01

    Oxygen isotope data provide a key test of general circulation models (GCMs) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in North America, which have otherwise proved difficult to validate. High δ18O pedogenic carbonates in central Wyoming have been interpreted to indicate increased summer precipitation sourced from the Gulf of Mexico. Here we show that tooth enamel δ18O of large mammals, which is strongly correlated with local water and precipitation δ18O, is lower during the LGM in Wyoming, not higher. Similar data from Texas, California, Florida and Arizona indicate higher δ18O values than in the Holocene, which is also predicted by GCMs. Tooth enamel data closely validate some recent models of atmospheric circulation and precipitation δ18O, including an increase in the proportion of winter precipitation for central North America, and summer precipitation in the southern US, but suggest aridity can bias pedogenic carbonate δ18O values significantly.

  15. Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

    2014-11-01

    Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

  16. Plutonium isotopes in the atmosphere of Central Europe: Isotopic composition and time evolution vs. circulation factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kierepko, Renata, E-mail: Renata.Kierepko@ifj.edu.pl [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Mietelski, Jerzy W. [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Ustrnul, Zbigniew [Jagiellonian University, Krakow (Poland); Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, Krakow (Poland); Anczkiewicz, Robert [Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Wershofen, Herbert [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany); Holgye, Zoltan [National Radiation Protection Institute, Prague (Czech Republic); Kapała, Jacek [Medical University of Bialystok (Poland); Isajenko, Krzysztof [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw (Poland)

    2016-11-01

    This paper reports evidence of Pu isotopes in the lower part of the troposphere of Central Europe. The data were obtained based on atmospheric aerosol fraction samples collected from four places in three countries (participating in the informal European network known as the Ring of Five (Ro5)) forming a cell with a surface area of about 200,000 km{sup 2}. We compared our original data sets from Krakow (Poland, 1990–2007) and Bialystok (Poland, 1991–2007) with the results from two other locations, Prague (Czech Republic; 1997–2004) and Braunschweig (Germany; 1990–2003) to find time evolution of the Pu isotopes. The levels of the activity concentration for {sup 238}Pu and for {sup (239} {sup +} {sup 240)}Pu were estimated to be a few and some tens of nBq m{sup −} {sup 3}, respectively. However, we also noted some results were much higher (even about 70 times higher) than the average concentration of {sup 238}Pu in the atmosphere. The achieved complex data sets were used to test a new approach to the problem of solving mixing isotopic traces from various sources (here up to three) in one sample. Results of our model, supported by mesoscale atmospheric circulation parameters, suggest that Pu from nuclear weapon accidents or tests and nuclear burnt-up fuel are present in the air. - Highlights: • Evidence of Pu isotopes in the lower part of the troposphere of Central Europe • The effective annual doses associated with Pu inhalation • New approach to the problem of solving mixed Pu origins in one sample (3SM) • Relationship between Pu isotopes activity concentration and circulation factors.

  17. Global Warming, New Climate, New Atmospheric Circulation and New Water Cycle in North Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karrouk, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Global warming has now reached the energetic phase of H2O's return to the ground after the saturation of the atmosphere in evaporation since the 80s and 90s of the last century, which were characterized by severe droughts, mainly in Africa.This phase is the result of the accumulation of thermal energy exchanges in the Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere system that resulted in the thrust reversal of the energy balance toward the poles. This situation is characterized by a new thermal distribution: above the ocean, the situation is more in surplus compared to the mainland, or even opposite when the balance is negative on the land, and in the atmosphere, warm thermal advection easily reach the North Pole (planetary crests), as well as cold advection push deep into North Africa and the Gulf of Mexico (planetary valleys: Polar Vortex).This "New Ground Energy Balance" establishes a "New Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC)" with an undulating character throughout the year, including the winter characterized by intense latitudinal very active energy exchanges between the surplus areas (tropical) and the deficit (polar) on the one hand, and the atmosphere, the ocean and the continent on the other.The excess radiation balance increases the potential evaporation of the atmosphere and provides a new geographical distribution of Moisture and Water worldwide: the excess water vapor is easily converted by cold advection (Polar Vortex) to heavy rains that cause floods or snow storms that paralyze the normal functioning of human activities, which creates many difficulties for users and leaves damage and casualties, but ensures water availability missing since a long time in many parts of the world, in Africa, Europe and America.The new thermal distribution reorganizes the geography of atmospheric pressure: the ocean energy concentration is transmitted directly to the atmosphere, and the excess torque is pushed northward. The Azores anticyclone is strengthened and is a global lock by the

  18. Passive tracers in a general circulation model of the Southern Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. G. Stevens

    Full Text Available Passive tracers are used in an off-line version of the United Kingdom Fine Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM to highlight features of the circulation and provide information on the inter-ocean exchange of water masses. The use of passive tracers allows a picture to be built up of the deep circulation which is not readily apparent from examination of the velocity or density fields. Comparison of observations with FRAM results gives good agreement for many features of the Southern Ocean circulation. Tracer distributions are consistent with the concept of a global "conveyor belt" with a return path via the Agulhas retroflection region for the replenishment of North Atlantic Deep Water.

    Key words. Oceanography: general (numerical modeling; water masses · Oceanography: physical (general circulation

  19. The Madden-Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, Kenneth R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA (United States); Gualdi, Silvio [National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Bologna (Italy); Legutke, Stephanie; Gayler, Veronika [Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Models and Data Group, Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-08-01

    The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability on timescales of 30-70 days. During the boreal winter/spring, it is manifested as an eastward propagating disturbance, with a strong convective signature over the eastern hemisphere. The space-time structure of the MJO is analyzed using simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model run with observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and coupled to three different ocean models. The coherence of the eastward propagation of MJO convection is sensitive to the ocean model to which ECHAM4 is coupled. For ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, models for which 100 years of daily data is available, Monte Carlo sampling indicates that their metrics of eastward propagation are different at the 1% significance level. The flux-adjusted coupled simulations, ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, maintain a more realistic mean-state, and have a more realistic MJO simulation than the nonadjusted scale interaction experiment (SINTEX) coupled runs. The SINTEX model exhibits a cold bias in Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature of 0.5 C. This cold bias affects the distribution of time-mean convection over the tropical eastern hemisphere. Furthermore, the eastward propagation of MJO convection in this model is not as coherent as in the two models that used flux adjustment or when compared to an integration of ECHAM4 with prescribed observed SST. This result suggests that simulating a realistic basic state is at least as important as air-sea interaction for organizing the MJO. While all of the coupled models simulate the warm (cold) SST anomalies that precede (succeed) the MJO convection, the interaction of the components of the net surface heat flux that lead to these anomalies are different over the Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4/OPYC model in which the atmospheric model is run at a horizontal resolution of T42, has eastward propagating zonal wind anomalies and latent heat flux anomalies

  20. Sensitivity of Middle Atmospheric Temperature and Circulation in the UIUC Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere GCM to the Treatment of Subgrid-Scale Gravity-Wave Breaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fanglin; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Andranova, Natasha; Zubov, Vladimir A.; Rozanov, Eugene V.; Callis, Lin B.

    2003-01-01

    The sensitivity of the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation to the treatment of mean- flow forcing due to breaking gravity waves was investigated using the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 40-layer Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere General Circulation Model (MST-GCM). Three GCM experiments were performed. The gravity-wave forcing was represented first by Rayleigh friction, and then by the Alexander and Dunkerton (AD) parameterization with weak and strong breaking effects of gravity waves. In all experiments, the Palmer et al. parameterization was included to treat the breaking of topographic gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Overall, the experiment with the strong breaking effect simulates best the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation. With Rayleigh friction and the weak breaking effect, a large warm bias of up to 60 C was found in the summer upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This warm bias was linked to the inability of the GCM to simulate the reversal of the zonal winds from easterly to westerly crossing the mesopause in the summer hemisphere. With the strong breaking effect, the GCM was able to simulate this reversal, and essentially eliminated the warm bias. This improvement was the result of a much stronger meridional transport circulation that possesses a strong vertical ascending branch in the summer upper mesosphere, and hence large adiabatic cooling. Budget analysis indicates that 'in the middle atmosphere the forces that act to maintain a steady zonal-mean zonal wind are primarily those associated with the meridional transport circulation and breaking gravity waves. Contributions from the interaction of the model-resolved eddies with the mean flow are small. To obtain a transport circulation in the mesosphere of the UIUC MST-GCM that is strong enough to produce the observed cold summer mesopause, gravity-wave forcing larger than 100 m/s/day in magnitude is required near the summer mesopause. In

  1. A statistical intercomparison of temperature and precipitation predicted by four general circulation models with historical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grotch, S.L.

    1991-01-01

    This study is a detailed intercomparison of the results produced by four general circulation models (GCMs) that have been used to estimate the climatic consequences of a doubling of the CO 2 concentration. Two variables, surface air temperature and precipitation, annually and seasonally averaged, are compared for both the current climate and for the predicted equilibrium changes after a doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. The major question considered here is: how well do the predictions from different GCMs agree with each other and with historical climatology over different areal extents, from the global scale down to the range of only several gridpoints? Although the models often agree well when estimating averages over large areas, substantial disagreements become apparent as the spatial scale is reduced. At scales below continental, the correlations observed between different model predictions are often very poor. The implications of this work for investigation of climatic impacts on a regional scale are profound. For these two important variables, at least, the poor agreement between model simulations of the current climate on the regional scale calls into question the ability of these models to quantitatively estimate future climatic change on anything approaching the scale of a few (< 10) gridpoints, which is essential if these results are to be used in meaningful resource-assessment studies. A stronger cooperative effort among the different modeling groups will be necessary to assure that we are getting better agreement for the right reasons, a prerequisite for improving confidence in model projections. 11 refs.; 10 figs

  2. A statistical intercomparison of temperature and precipitation predicted by four general circulation models with historical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grotch, S.L.

    1990-01-01

    This study is a detailed intercomparison of the results produced by four general circulation models (GCMs) that have been used to estimate the climatic consequences of a doubling of the CO 2 concentration. Two variables, surface air temperature and precipitation, annually and seasonally averaged, are compared for both the current climate and for the predicted equilibrium changes after a doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. The major question considered here is: how well do the predictions from different GCMs agree with each other and with historical climatology over different areal extents, from the global scale down to the range of only several gridpoints? Although the models often agree well when estimating averages over large areas, substantial disagreements become apparent as the spatial scale is reduced. At scales below continental, the correlations observed between different model predictions are often very poor. The implications of this work for investigation of climatic impacts on a regional scale are profound. For these two important variables, at least, the poor agreement between model simulations of the current climate on the regional scale calls into question the ability of these models to quantitatively estimate future climatic change on anything approaching the scale of a few (< 10) gridpoints, which is essential if these results are to be used in meaningful resource-assessment studies. A stronger cooperative effort among the different modeling groups will be necessary to assure that we are getting better agreement for the right reasons, a prerequisite for improving confidence in model projections

  3. Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, L.; Botzet, M.; Esch, M.

    1994-01-01

    A very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model, T106-L19, has been used for the simulation of hurricanes in a multi-year numerical experiment. Individual storms as well as their geographical and seasonal distribution agree remarkably well with observations. In spite of the fact that only the thermal and dynamical structure of the storms have been used as criteria of their identification, practically all of them occur in areas where the sea surface temperature is higher or equal to 26 C. There are some variations from year to year in the number of storms in spite of the fact that there are no interannual variations in the SST pattern. It is found that the number of storms in particular areas depend on the intensity of the Hadley-Walker cell. The result is clearly resolution dependant. At lower horizonal resolution, T42, for example, the intensity of the storms is significantly reduced and their overall structure is less realistic, including their vertical form and extention. (orig.)

  4. A Wind Tunnel Model to Explore Unsteady Circulation Control for General Aviation Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagle, Christopher M.; Jones, Gregory S.

    2002-01-01

    Circulation Control airfoils have been demonstrated to provide substantial improvements in lift over conventional airfoils. The General Aviation Circular Control model is an attempt to address some of the concerns of this technique. The primary focus is to substantially reduce the amount of air mass flow by implementing unsteady flow. This paper describes a wind tunnel model that implements unsteady circulation control by pulsing internal pneumatic valves and details some preliminary results from the first test entry.

  5. Chemical characterization of surface snow in Istanbul (NW Turkey) and their association with atmospheric circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baysal, Asli; Baltaci, Hakki; Ozbek, Nil; Destanoglu, Orhan; Ustabasi, Gul Sirin; Gumus, Gulcin

    2017-06-01

    The understanding of the impurities in natural snow is important in realizing its atmospheric quality, soil characteristics, and the pollution caused to the environment. Knowledge of the occurrence of major ions and trace metals in the snow in the megacity of Istanbul is very limited. This manuscript attempts to understand the origin of major soluble ions (fluoride, acetate, formate, chlorite, chloride, nitrite, chlorate, bromide, nitrate, sulfate, phosphate, and perchlorate) and some trace metals (Fe, Mn, Cd, Co, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cu) in winter surface snow, collected in Istanbul, Turkey. The sampling of the surface snow was conducted after each precipitation during the winter of 2015-2016 at three sites in the city. Besides the statistical evaluation of the major ions, and some trace metal concentrations, the chemical variations along with atmospheric circulations, which are important modification mechanisms that influence the concentrations, were investigated in the study. At examined locations and times, 12 major anions were investigated and in these anions fluoride, chlorite, chlorate, bromide, and perchlorate in the snow samples were below the detection limit; only SO 4 2- , NO 3 - , and CI - were found to be in the range of 1.11-17.90, 0.75-4.52, and 0.19-3.01 mg/L. Also, according to the trace element determination, the concentration was found to be 29.2-53.7, 2.0-16.1, 1.0-2.2, 50.1-71.1, 24.2-35.2, ND-7.9, 43.2-106.6, and 3.0-17.7 μg/L for Fe, Mn, Cd, Co, Ni, Pb, Zn, and Cu, respectively. The major anions and investigated trace elements here originated mainly from anthropogenic and atmospheric circulation and mainly influenced by northerly and southerly circulation patterns. While the main limitations in the present study may be the low number of samples that may not be entirely representative, accurately reflect identification, or support other previously observed local measurements, we believe that the type of data presented in this study has the potential

  6. Explanatory analysis of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and occurrence of flood generating events in a coastal city

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of the occurrence of flood generating events in urban areas by analyzing the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation events, extreme sea water level events and their simultaneous occurrence......, respectively. To describe the atmospheric circulation we used the Lamb circulation type (LCT) classification and re-grouped it into Lamb circulation classes (LCC). The daily LCCs/LCTs were connected with rare precipitation and water level events in Aarhus, a Danish coastal city. Westerly and cyclonic LCCs (W......, C, SW, and NW) showed a significantly high occurrence of extreme precipitation. Similarly, for extreme water level events westerly LCCs (W and SW) showed a significantly high occurrence. Significantly low occurrence of extreme precipitation and water level events was obtained in easterly LCCs (NE, E...

  7. The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yanase

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The surface conditions and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific during the last glacial maximum have been investigated using outputs from several coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in the PMIP2 database. During the boreal summer, the weakening of the high pressure system over the North Pacific and less precipitation over East Asia are found in most models. The latter can be attributed to reduced moisture transport. During the boreal winter, an intensification of the Aleutian low and southward shift of the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere are found in most models.

    Some of the results in the present study seem to be consistent with the paleoclimatic reconstructions in the previous studies: pollen and lake-status records suggest dry climate over East Asia during the last glacial maximum, and part of the dust record has a signal that the East Asian winter monsoon was more strong and the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere was further south during the last glacial maximum than at the present day. This result confirms that a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is a promising tool to understand not only the global climate but also the regional climate in the past.

  8. On the norms of r-circulant matrices with generalized Fibonacci numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amara Chandoul

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we obtain a generalization of [6, 8]. Firstly, we consider the so-called r-circulant matrices with generalized Fibonacci numbers and then found lower and upper bounds for the Euclidean and spectral norms of these matrices. Afterwards, we present some bounds for the spectral norms of Hadamard and Kronecker product of these matrices.

  9. Ocean bio-geophysical modeling using mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model coupled with photosynthesis process

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nakamoto, S.; Saito, H.; Muneyama, K.; Sato, T.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Kumar, A.; Frouin, R.

    -chemical system that supports steady carbon circulation in geological time scale in the world ocean using Mixed Layer-Isopycnal ocean General Circulation model with remotely sensed Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) chlorophyll pigment concentration....

  10. THREE-DIMENSIONAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF WARM AND HOT JUPITERS: EFFECTS OF ORBITAL DISTANCE, ROTATION PERIOD, AND NONSYNCHRONOUS ROTATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Showman, Adam P. [Department of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, 1629 University Blvd., Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Lewis, Nikole K. [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Fortney, Jonathan J., E-mail: showman@lpl.arizona.edu [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2015-03-10

    Efforts to characterize extrasolar giant planet (EGP) atmospheres have so far emphasized planets within 0.05 AU of their stars. Despite this focus, known EGPs populate a continuum of orbital separations from canonical hot Jupiter values (0.03–0.05 AU) out to 1 AU and beyond. Unlike typical hot Jupiters, these more distant EGPs will not generally be synchronously rotating. In anticipation of observations of this population, we here present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models exploring the dynamics that emerge over a broad range of rotation rates and incident stellar fluxes appropriate for warm and hot Jupiters. We find that the circulation resides in one of two basic regimes. On typical hot Jupiters, the strong day–night heating contrast leads to a broad, fast superrotating (eastward) equatorial jet and large day–night temperature differences. At faster rotation rates and lower incident fluxes, however, the day–night heating gradient becomes less important, and baroclinic instabilities emerge as a dominant player, leading to eastward jets in the midlatitudes, minimal temperature variations in longitude, and, often, weak winds at the equator. Our most rapidly rotating and least irradiated models exhibit similarities to Jupiter and Saturn, illuminating the dynamical continuum between hot Jupiters and the weakly irradiated giant planets of our own solar system. We present infrared (IR) light curves and spectra of these models, which depend significantly on incident flux and rotation rate. This provides a way to identify the regime transition in future observations. In some cases, IR light curves can provide constraints on the rotation rate of nonsynchronously rotating planets.

  11. THREE-DIMENSIONAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF WARM AND HOT JUPITERS: EFFECTS OF ORBITAL DISTANCE, ROTATION PERIOD, AND NONSYNCHRONOUS ROTATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Showman, Adam P.; Lewis, Nikole K.; Fortney, Jonathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to characterize extrasolar giant planet (EGP) atmospheres have so far emphasized planets within 0.05 AU of their stars. Despite this focus, known EGPs populate a continuum of orbital separations from canonical hot Jupiter values (0.03–0.05 AU) out to 1 AU and beyond. Unlike typical hot Jupiters, these more distant EGPs will not generally be synchronously rotating. In anticipation of observations of this population, we here present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models exploring the dynamics that emerge over a broad range of rotation rates and incident stellar fluxes appropriate for warm and hot Jupiters. We find that the circulation resides in one of two basic regimes. On typical hot Jupiters, the strong day–night heating contrast leads to a broad, fast superrotating (eastward) equatorial jet and large day–night temperature differences. At faster rotation rates and lower incident fluxes, however, the day–night heating gradient becomes less important, and baroclinic instabilities emerge as a dominant player, leading to eastward jets in the midlatitudes, minimal temperature variations in longitude, and, often, weak winds at the equator. Our most rapidly rotating and least irradiated models exhibit similarities to Jupiter and Saturn, illuminating the dynamical continuum between hot Jupiters and the weakly irradiated giant planets of our own solar system. We present infrared (IR) light curves and spectra of these models, which depend significantly on incident flux and rotation rate. This provides a way to identify the regime transition in future observations. In some cases, IR light curves can provide constraints on the rotation rate of nonsynchronously rotating planets

  12. Interactions between atmospheric circulation, nutrient deposition, and tropical forest primary production (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.; van der Werf, G.; Mahowald, N. M.

    2010-12-01

    Tropical forests influence regional and global climate by means of several pathways, including by modifying surface energy exchange and by forming clouds. High levels of precipitation, leaching, and soil weathering limit nutrient availability in these ecosystems. Phosphorus (P) is a key element limiting net primary production, and in some areas, including forests recovering from prior disturbance, nitrogen (N) also may limit some components of production. Here we quantified atmospheric P and N inputs to these forests from fires using satellite-derived estimates of emissions and atmospheric models. In Africa and South America, cross-biome transport of fire-emitted aerosols and reactive N gases from savannas and areas near the deforestation frontier increased deposition of P and N in interior forests. Equatorward atmospheric transport during the dry (fire) season in one hemisphere was linked with surface winds moving toward the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the other hemisphere. Deposition levels were higher in tropical forests in Africa than in South America because of large savanna areas with high levels of fire emissions in both southern and northern Africa. We conclude by describing a potential feedback loop by which equatorward transport of fire emissions, dust, and spores sustains the productivity of tropical forests. We specifically assessed evidence that savanna-to-forest atmospheric transport of nutrients increases forest productivity, height, and rates of evapotranspiration (ET). In parallel, we examined the degree to which increases in ET and surface roughness in tropical forests have the potential to strengthen several components of the Hadley circulation, including deep convection, equatorward return flow (near the surface), and the intensity of seasonal drought in the subtropics (thereby increasing fires). These interactions are important for understanding biogeochemical - climate interactions on millennial timescales and for quantifying how

  13. Radiocarbon constraints on the glacial ocean circulation and its impact on atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, L. C.; Primeau, F.; Freeman, E.; de la Fuente, M.; Goodwin, P. A.; Gottschalk, J.; Huang, E.; McCave, I. N.; Noble, T. L.; Scrivner, A. E.

    2017-01-01

    While the ocean’s large-scale overturning circulation is thought to have been significantly different under the climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the exact nature of the glacial circulation and its implications for global carbon cycling continue to be debated. Here we use a global array of ocean–atmosphere radiocarbon disequilibrium estimates to demonstrate a ∼689±53 14C-yr increase in the average residence time of carbon in the deep ocean at the LGM. A predominantly southern-sourced abyssal overturning limb that was more isolated from its shallower northern counterparts is interpreted to have extended from the Southern Ocean, producing a widespread radiocarbon age maximum at mid-depths and depriving the deep ocean of a fast escape route for accumulating respired carbon. While the exact magnitude of the resulting carbon cycle impacts remains to be confirmed, the radiocarbon data suggest an increase in the efficiency of the biological carbon pump that could have accounted for as much as half of the glacial–interglacial CO2 change. PMID:28703126

  14. Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian

    2016-05-01

    Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

  15. Migration history of air-breathing fishes reveals Neogene atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhme, M.

    2004-05-01

    The migration history of an air-breathing fish group (Channidae; snakehead fishes) is used for reconstructing Neogene Eurasian precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns. The study shows that snakeheads are sensitive indicators of summer precipitation maxima in subtropical and temperate regions, and are present regularly if the wettest month exceeds 150 mm precipitation and 20 °C mean temperature. The analysis of 515 fossil freshwater fish deposits of the past 50 m.y. from Africa and Eurasia shows two continental-scale migration events from the snakeheads' center of origin in the south Himalayan region, events that can be related to changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation pattern. The first migration, ca. 17.5 Ma, into western and central Eurasia may have been caused by a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone that brought western Eurasia under the influence of trade winds that produced a zonal and meridional precipitation gradient in Europe. During the second migration, between 8 and 4 Ma, into Africa and East Asia, snakeheads reached their present-day distribution. This migration could have been related to the intensification of the Asian monsoon that brought summer precipitation to their migratory pathways in East Africa Arabia and East Asia.

  16. Turbulent circulation above the surface heat source in stably stratified atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbatskii, A. F.; Kurbatskaya, L. I.

    2016-10-01

    The 3-level RANS approach for simulating a turbulent circulation over the heat island in a stably stratified environment under nearly calm conditions is formulated. The turbulent kinetic energy its spectral consumption (dissipation) and the dispersion of turbulent fluctuations of temperature are found from differential equations, thus the correct modeling of transport processes in the interface layer with the counter-gradient heat flux is assured. The three-parameter turbulence RANS approach minimizes difficulties in simulating the turbulent transport in a stably stratified environment and reduces efforts needed for the numerical implementation of the 3-level RANS approach. Numerical simulation of the turbulent structure of the penetrative convection over the heat island under conditions of stably stratified atmosphere demonstrates that the three-equation model is able to predict the thermal circulation induced by the heat island. The temperature distribution, root-mean-square fluctuations of the turbulent velocity and temperature fields and spectral turbulent kinetic energy flux are in good agreement with the experimental data. The model describes such thin physical effects, as a crossing of vertical profiles of temperature of a thermal plume with the formation of the negative buoyancy area testifying to development of the dome-shaped form at the top part of a plume in the form of "hat".

  17. Surface ozone concentrations in Europe: Links with the regional-scale atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, T. D.; Kelly, P. M.; Low, P. S.; Pierce, C. E.

    1992-06-01

    Daily surface ozone observations from 1978 (1976 for some analyses) to 1988 for Bottesford (United Kingdom), Cabauw, Kloosterburen (The Netherlands), Hohenpeissenberg, Neuglobsow, Hamburg, and Arkona (Germany) are used to analyze links between surface ozone variations and the atmospheric circulation. A daily Europe-wide synoptic classification highlights marked differences between surface ozone/meteorology relationships in summer and winter. These relationships are characterized by correlations between daily surface ozone concentrations at each station and a local subregional surface pressure gradient (a wind speed index). Although there are geographical variations, which are explicable in terms of regional climatology, there are distinct annual cycles. In summer, the surface ozone/wind speed relationship exhibits the expected negative sign; however, in winter, the relationship is, in the main, strongly positive, especially at those stations which are more influenced by the vigorous westerlies. Spring and autumn exhibit negative, positive, or transitional (between summer and winter) behavior, depending on geographical position. It is suggested that these relationships reflect the importance of vertical exchange from the free troposphere to the surface in the nonsummer months. Composite surface pressure patterns and surface pressure anomaly (from the long-term mean) patterns associated with high surface ozone concentrations on daily and seasonal time scales are consistent with the surface ozone/wind speed relationships. Moreover, they demonstrate that high surface ozone concentrations, in a climatological time frame, can be associated with mean surface pressure patterns which have a synoptic reality and are robust. Such an approach may be useful in interpreting past variations in surface ozone and may help to isolate the effect of human activity. It is also possible that assessments can be made of the effect of projected future changes in the atmospheric circulation

  18. Generalized atmospheric sampling of self-avoiding walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Rensburg, E J Janse; Rechnitzer, A

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new Monte Carlo method for sampling lattice self-avoiding walks. The method, which we call 'GAS' (generalized atmospheric sampling), samples walks along weighted sequences by implementing elementary moves generated by the positive, negative and neutral atmospheric statistics of the walks. A realized sequence is weighted such that the average weight of states of length n is proportional to the number of self-avoiding walks from the origin c n . In addition, the method also self-tunes to sample from uniform distributions over walks of lengths in an interval [0, n max ]. We show how to implement GAS using both generalized and endpoint atmospheres of walks and analyse our data to obtain estimates of the growth constant and entropic exponent of self-avoiding walks in the square and cubic lattices.

  19. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Musat, Ionela; Bony, Sandrine; Codron, Francis; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Fairhead, Laurent; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; LeVan, Phu; Li, Zhao-Xin; Lott, Francois [CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Braconnot, Pascale; Friedlingstein, Pierre [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Saclay (France); Filiberti, Marie-Angele [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Krinner, Gerhard [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Grenoble (France)

    2006-12-15

    The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL-CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley-Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the Hadley-Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke's parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. (orig.)

  20. Trends in frequency and persistence of atmospheric circulation types over Europe derived from a multitude of classifications

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kučerová, Monika; Beck, Ch.; Philipp, A.; Huth, Radan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 37, č. 5 (2017), s. 2502-2521 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-04676S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * trend * persistence * Europe * COST733cat Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4861/full

  1. A south equatorial African precipitation dipole and the associated atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, A. K.; Zaitchik, B.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2013-12-01

    South Equatorial Africa (SEA) is a climatically diverse region that includes a dramatic topographic and vegetation contrast between the lowland, humid Congo basin to the west and the East African Plateau to the east. Due to lack of conventional weather data and a tendency for researchers to treat East and western Africa as separate regions, dynamics of the atmospheric water cycle across SEA have received relatively little attention, particularly at subseasonal timescales. Both western and eastern sectors of SEA are affected by large-scale drivers of the water cycle associated with Atlantic variability (western sector), Indian Ocean variability (eastern sector) and Pacific variability (both sectors). However, a specific characteristic of SEA is strong heterogeneity in interannual rainfall variability that cannot be explained by large-scale climatic phenomena. For this reason, this study examines regional climate dynamics on daily time-scale with a focus on the role that the abrupt topographic contrast between the lowland Congo and the East African highlands plays in driving rainfall behavior on short timescales. Analysis of daily precipitation data during November-March reveals a zonally-oriented dipole mode over SEA that explains the leading pattern of weather-scale precipitation variability in the region. The separating longitude of the two poles is coincident with the zonal variation of topography. An anomalous counter-clockwise atmospheric circulation associated with the dipole mode appears over the entire SEA. The circulation is triggered by its low-level westerly component, which is in turn generated by an interhemispheric pressure gradient. These enhanced westerlies hit the East African highlands and produce topographically-driven low-level convergence and convection that further intensifies the circulation. Recent studies have shown that under climate change the position and intensity of subtropical highs in both hemispheres and the intensity of

  2. Cloud-turbulence interactions: Sensitivity of a general circulation model to closure assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkop, S.; Roeckner, E.

    1993-01-01

    Several approaches to parameterize the turbulent transport of momentum, heat, water vapour and cloud water for use in a general circulation model (GCM) have been tested in one-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations. The schemes differ with respect to their closure assumptions (conventional eddy diffusivity model versus turbulent kinetic energy closure) and also regarding their treatment of cloud-turbulence interactions. The basis properties of these parameterizations are discussed first in column simulations of a stratocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under a strong subsidence inversion during the KONTROL experiment in the North Sea. It is found that the K-models tend to decouple the cloud layer from the adjacent layers because the turbulent activity is calculated from local variables. The higher-order scheme performs better in this respect because internally generated turbulence can be transported up and down through the action of turbulent diffusion. Thus, the TKE-scheme provides not only a better link between the cloud and the sub-cloud layer but also between the cloud and the inversion as a result of cloud-top entrainment. In the stratocumulus case study, where the cloud is confined by a pronounced subsidence inversion, increased entrainment favours cloud dilution through enhanced evaporation of cloud droplets. In the GCM study, however, additional cloud-top entrainment supports cloud formation because indirect cloud generating processes are promoted through efficient ventilation of the ABL, such as the enhanced moisture supply by surface evaporation and the increased depth of the ABL. As a result, tropical convection is more vigorous, the hydrological cycle is intensified, the whole troposphere becomes warmer and moister in general and the cloudiness in the upper part of the ABL is increased. (orig.)

  3. Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

    2017-12-01

    The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

  4. Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields During Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.

    2016-01-01

    We perform a series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental U.S., with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-mb eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find similar results; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the US interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi Valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the US-Canada border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.

  5. Intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall and its related atmospheric circulation features during the 1991 summer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Jiangyu; Wu, Guoxiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Beijing (China); Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2006-12-15

    The intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall over eastern China and its related atmospheric circulation characteristics during the 1991 summer are examined based on the gauge-observed rainfall and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Wavelet analysis shows that during the 1991 summer, the active and break sequences of rainfall over the middle and lower Yangtze Basin are mainly regulated by an oscillatory mode with a period of 15-35 days. An investigation of the circulation features suggests that the 15-35-day oscillation is associated with an anomalous low-level cyclone (anticyclone) appearing alternatively over the northern South China Sea (SCS) and the Philippine Sea, and related to a northeastward (southwestward) shift of the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the SCS, leading to a lower tropospheric divergence (convergence) over the Yangtze Basin. In the upper troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation exhibits a dipole anomaly characterized by an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over eastern China and an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the northern Tibetan Plateau, resulting in a southwestward shrinking (northeastward extending) of the South Asian anticyclone, and forming a convergence (divergence) over eastern China. Such a coupled anomalous flow pattern between the lower and upper troposphere favors large-scale descending (ascending) motion, and hence reduced (enhanced) rainfall over the Yangtze Basin. Dynamically, the intraseasonal variations in the Yangtze rainfall are mainly determined by the coupling between the low-level relative vorticity and the upper-level divergence. In the middle troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation of the subtropical high is originated over the central North Pacific north of Hawaii, then propagates westward to the SCS-Philippine Sea, and finally modulates the intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall. (orig.)

  6. Selected translated abstracts of Russian-language climate-change publications. 4: General circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burtis, M.D. [comp.] [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; Razuvaev, V.N.; Sivachok, S.G. [All-Russian Research Inst. of Hydrometeorological Information--World Data Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation)

    1996-10-01

    This report presents English-translated abstracts of important Russian-language literature concerning general circulation models as they relate to climate change. Into addition to the bibliographic citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Russian. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  7. Midlatitude Forcing Mechanisms for Glacier Mass Balance Investigated Using General Circulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2001-01-01

    A process-oriented modeling approach is applied in order to simulate glacier mass balance for individual glaciers using statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs). Glacier-specific seasonal sensitivity characteristics based on a mass balance model of intermediate complexity are used

  8. Simulation of the Low-Level-Jet by general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    To what degree is the low-level jet climatology and it`s impact on clouds and precipitation being captured by current general circulation models? It is hypothesised that a need for a pramaterization exists. This paper describes this parameterization need.

  9. Aluminium in an ocean general circulation model compared with the West Atlantic Geotraces cruises

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Hulten, M

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A model of aluminium has been developed and implemented in an Ocean General Circulation Model (NEMO-PISCES). In the model, aluminium enters the ocean by means of dust deposition. The internal oceanic processes are described by advection, mixing...

  10. General theory of light propagation and imaging through the atmosphere

    CERN Document Server

    McKechnie, T Stewart

    2016-01-01

    This book lays out a new, general theory of light propagation and imaging through Earth’s turbulent atmosphere. Current theory is based on the – now widely doubted – assumption of Kolmogorov turbulence. The new theory is based on a generalized atmosphere, the turbulence characteristics of which can be established, as needed, from readily measurable properties of point-object, or star, images. The pessimistic resolution predictions of Kolmogorov theory led to lax optical tolerance prescriptions for large ground-based astronomical telescopes which were widely adhered to in the 1970s and 1980s. Around 1990, however, it became clear that much better resolution was actually possible, and Kolmogorov tolerance prescriptions were promptly abandoned. Most large telescopes built before 1990 have had their optics upgraded (e.g., the UKIRT instrument) and now achieve, without adaptive optics (AO), almost an order of magnitude better resolution than before. As well as providing a more comprehensive and precise under...

  11. Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

    2017-08-01

    Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

  12. Impact of atmospheric circulation types on southwest Asian dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Houssos, E. E.; Solmon, F.; Legrand, M.; Rashki, A.; Dumka, U. C.; Francois, P.; Gautam, R.; Singh, R. P.

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the meteorological feedback on dust aerosols and rainfall over the Arabian Sea and India during the summer monsoon using satellite data, re-analysis and a regional climate model. Based on days with excess aerosol loading over the central Ganges basin during May - September, two distinct atmospheric circulation types (weather clusters) are identified, which are associated with different dust-aerosol and rainfall distributions over south Asia, highlighting the role of meteorology on dust emissions and monsoon rainfall. Each cluster is characterized by different patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields at 1000 hPa and at 700 hPa, thus modulating changes in dust-aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea. One cluster is associated with deepening of the Indian/Pakistan thermal low leading to (i) increased cyclonicity and thermal convection over northwestern India and Arabian Peninsula, (ii) intensification of the southwest monsoon off the Horn of Africa, iii) increase in dust emissions from Rub-Al-Khali and Somalian deserts, (iv) excess dust accumulation over the Arabian Sea and, (v) strengthening of the convergence of humid air masses and larger precipitation over Indian landmass compared to the other cluster. The RegCM4.4 model simulations for dust-aerosol and precipitation distributions support the meteorological fields and satellite observations, while the precipitation over India is positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea on daily basis for both weather clusters. This study highlights the key role of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics on dust life cycle and rainfall over the monsoon-influenced south Asia.

  13. Interannual variability of the North Pacific winter storm track and its relationship with extratropical atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiaojiao; Zhang, Yaocun

    2018-01-01

    Interannual variability of the North Pacific storm track and the three-dimensional atmosphere circulation during winter are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1950-2015. Results show that year-to-year variations of the storm track exhibit two principal modes, i.e. the monopole intensity change and the meridional shift of the storm track, respectively. The intensity change mode is linked to weakening of the Siberian high, northward shift of the western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and well corresponding to the Western Pacific teleconnection. The meridional shift mode is related to intensification and south-eastward extension of western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and linked to the Pacific-North America teleconnection. The internal atmospheric dynamics responsible for the storm track variability is further investigated from the perspective of wave-flow energy conversion. For the intensity change mode, accompanied by the enhanced baroclinity over the entrance region of the storm track, more energy is converted from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and then transferred to eddy kinetic energy, which is favorable for the overall enhancement of the storm track intensity. For the meridional shift mode, more energy is transformed from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and further transferred to eddy kinetic energy over the southern (northern) areas of the storm track, contributing to the southward (northward) shift of the storm track. Additionally, the increased (decreased) conversion from mean-flow kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy over the north-eastern Pacific region is also in favor of the southward (northward) shift of the storm track.

  14. Atmospheric circulation characteristics associated with the onset of Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chongyin; Pan, Jing

    2006-12-01

    The onset of the Asian summer monsoon has been a focus in the monsoon study for many years. In this paper, we study the variability and predictability of the Asian summer monsoon onset and demonstrate that this onset is associated with specific atmospheric circulation characteristics. The outbreak of the Asian summer monsoon is found to occur first over the southwestern part of the South China Sea (SCS) and the Malay Peninsula region, and the monsoon onset is closely related to intra-seasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere. These intra-seasonal oscillations consist of two low-frequency vortex pairs, one located to the east of the Philippines and the other over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Prior to the Asian summer monsoon onset, a strong low-frequency westerly emerges over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the low-frequency vortex pair develops symmetrically along the equator. The formation and evolution of these low-frequency vortices are important and serve as a good indicator for the Asian summer monsoon onset. The relationship between the northward jumps of the westerly jet over East Asia and the Asian summer monsoon onset over SCS is investigated. It is shown that the northward jump of the westerly jet occurs twice during the transition from winter to summer and these jumps are closely related to the summer monsoon development. The first northward jump (from 25° 28°N to around 30°N) occurs on 8 May on average, about 7 days ahead of the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. It is found that the reverse of meridional temperature gradient in the upper-middle troposphere (500 200 hPa) and the enhancement and northward movement of the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemispheric subtropics are responsible for the first northward jump of the westerly jet.

  15. Distant and Regional Atmospheric Circulation Influences Governing Integrated Water Vapor Transport and the Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Papin, P. P.; Bentley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation will show how the evolution of the large-scale and regional-scale atmospheric circulation contributes to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). An EPE requires that tropospheric moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the associated removal of hydrometeors be balanced by moisture replenishment via integrated (water) vapor transport (IVT) to continuously replenish condensed moisture. Moisture source regions may be distant or regional. Distant moisture sources may require the interaction of lower- and upper-level jet streams with a pre-existing mobile atmospheric disturbance to produce sufficient lift to condense moisture. Pre-existing regional moisture sources may require frontal lifting the presence of MFC to condense moisture. In cases of long-range IVT, such as moisture from a western North Pacific typhoon being drawn poleward along an atmospheric river (AR) toward the west coast of North America, moisture may be transported 1000s of kilometers along a low-level jet before a combination of dynamic and orographic lift results in an EPE. Alternatively, in the case of a typical summer warm and humid air mass over the continental United States, unused moisture may exist for several days in this air mass before sufficient MFC associated with a thermally direct mesoscale frontal circulation can concentrate and condense the moisture. In this case, there may be no long-range IVT via ARs. Instead, the atmospheric circulations may evolve to produce sustained MFC associated with mesoscale frontal circulations, especially in the presence of complex terrain, to produce an EPE. During this presentation, examples of EPEs associated with long-range IVT and distant MFC versus EPEs associated with regional MFC and mesoscale frontal circulations will be illustrated.

  16. The circulation pattern and day-night heat transport in the atmosphere of a synchronously rotating aquaplanet: Dependence on planetary rotation rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, S.; Ishiwatari, M.; Nakajima, K.; Takahashi, Y. O.; Takehiro, S.; Onishi, M.; Hashimoto, G. L.; Kuramoto, K.; Hayashi, Y.-Y.

    2017-01-01

    In order to investigate a possible variety of atmospheric states realized on a synchronously rotating aquaplanet, an experiment studying the impact of planetary rotation rate is performed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with simplified hydrological and radiative processes. The entire planetary surface is covered with a swamp ocean. The value of planetary rotation rate is varied from zero to the Earth's, while other parameters such as planetary radius, mean molecular weight and total mass of atmospheric dry components, and solar constant are set to the present Earth's values. The integration results show that the atmosphere reaches statistically equilibrium states for all runs; none of the calculated cases exemplifies the runaway greenhouse state. The circulation patterns obtained are classified into four types: Type-I characterized by the dominance of a day-night thermally direct circulation, Type-II characterized by a zonal wave number one resonant Rossby wave over a meridionally broad westerly jet on the equator, Type-III characterized by a long time scale north-south asymmetric variation, and Type-IV characterized by a pair of mid-latitude westerly jets. With the increase of planetary rotation rate, the circulation evolves from Type-I to Type-II and then to Type-III gradually and smoothly, whereas the change from Type-III to Type-IV is abrupt and discontinuous. Over a finite range of planetary rotation rate, both Types-III and -IV emerge as statistically steady states, constituting multiple equilibria. In spite of the substantial changes in circulation, the net energy transport from the day side to the night side remains almost insensitive to planetary rotation rate, although the partition into dry static energy and latent heat energy transports changes. The reason for this notable insensitivity is that the outgoing longwave radiation over the broad area of the day side is constrained by the radiation limit of a moist atmosphere, so that the

  17. A nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Oddo

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available A new numerical general circulation ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented nested within an Atlantic general circulation model within the framework of the Marine Environment and Security for the European Area project (MERSEA, Desaubies, 2006. A 4-year twin experiment was carried out from January 2004 to December 2007 with two different models to evaluate the impact on the Mediterranean Sea circulation of open lateral boundary conditions in the Atlantic Ocean. One model considers a closed lateral boundary in a large Atlantic box and the other is nested in the same box in a global ocean circulation model. Impact was observed comparing the two simulations with independent observations: ARGO for temperature and salinity profiles and tide gauges and along-track satellite observations for the sea surface height. The improvement in the nested Atlantic-Mediterranean model with respect to the closed one is particularly evident in the salinity characteristics of the Modified Atlantic Water and in the Mediterranean sea level seasonal variability.

  18. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in a general circulation model and observational data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.; Bengtsson, L.

    1994-01-01

    There are various phenomena on different spatial and temporal scales contributing to the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics. One may notice higher-frequency baroclinic disturbances affecting the day-to-day variability of the atmosphere. But one finds also low-frequency fluctuations on a typical time scale of a few weeks. Blocking anticyclones are probably the most prominent example of such features. These fluctuations on different scales, however, are influencing each other, in particular the temporal evolution and spatial distribution. There has been observational work on various phenomena contributing to the intra-seasonal variability for a long time. In the last decade or so, however, with the increasing importance of General Circulation Models there have been some studies dealing with the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by these models

  19. The Mars Dust Cycle: Investigating the Effects of Radiatively Active Water Ice Clouds on Surface Stresses and Dust Lifting Potential with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, Melinda A.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery

    2012-01-01

    The dust cycle is a critically important component of Mars' current climate system. Dust is present in the atmosphere of Mars year-round but the dust loading varies with season in a generally repeatable manner. Dust has a significant influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation. The dust cycle is the most difficult of the three climate cycles (CO2, water, and dust) to model realistically with general circulation models. Until recently, numerical modeling investigations of the dust cycle have typically not included the effects of couplings to the water cycle through cloud formation. In the Martian atmosphere, dust particles likely provide the seed nuclei for heterogeneous nucleation of water ice clouds. As ice coats atmospheric dust grains, the newly formed cloud particles exhibit different physical and radiative characteristics. Thus, the coupling between the dust and water cycles likely affects the distributions of dust, water vapor and water ice, and thus atmospheric heating and cooling and the resulting circulations. We use the NASA Ames Mars GCM to investigate the effects of radiatively active water ice clouds on surface stress and the potential for dust lifting. The model includes a state-of-the-art water ice cloud microphysics package and a radiative transfer scheme that accounts for the radiative effects of CO2 gas, dust, and water ice clouds. We focus on simulations that are radiatively forced by a prescribed dust map, and we compare simulations that do and do not include radiatively active clouds. Preliminary results suggest that the magnitude and spatial patterns of surface stress (and thus dust lifting potential) are substantial influenced by the radiative effects of water ice clouds.

  20. Multi-temporal clustering of continental floods and associated atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Yongqiang

    2017-12-01

    Investigating clustering of floods has important social, economic and ecological implications. This study examines the clustering of Australian floods at different temporal scales and its possible physical mechanisms. Flood series with different severities are obtained by peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling in four flood thresholds. At intra-annual scale, Cox regression and monthly frequency methods are used to examine whether and when the flood clustering exists, respectively. At inter-annual scale, dispersion indices with four-time variation windows are applied to investigate the inter-annual flood clustering and its variation. Furthermore, the Kernel occurrence rate estimate and bootstrap resampling methods are used to identify flood-rich/flood-poor periods. Finally, seasonal variation of horizontal wind at 850 hPa and vertical wind velocity at 500 hPa are used to investigate the possible mechanisms causing the temporal flood clustering. Our results show that: (1) flood occurrences exhibit clustering at intra-annual scale, which are regulated by climate indices representing the impacts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans; (2) the flood-rich months occur from January to March over northern Australia, and from July to September over southwestern and southeastern Australia; (3) stronger inter-annual clustering takes place across southern Australia than northern Australia; and (4) Australian floods are characterised by regional flood-rich and flood-poor periods, with 1987-1992 identified as the flood-rich period across southern Australia, but the flood-poor period across northern Australia, and 2001-2006 being the flood-poor period across most regions of Australia. The intra-annual and inter-annual clustering and temporal variation of flood occurrences are in accordance with the variation of atmospheric circulation. These results provide relevant information for flood management under the influence of climate variability, and, therefore, are helpful for developing

  1. Atmospheric circulation and sounding-derived parameters associated with thunderstorm occurrence in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolendowicz, Leszek; Taszarek, Mateusz; Czernecki, Bartosz

    2017-07-01

    The main objective of this study is to examine the influence of atmospheric circulation patterns and sounding-derived parameters on thunderstorm occurrence in Central Europe. Thunderstorm activity tends to increase as one moves from the north to the south of the research area. Maximal thunderstorm occurrence is observed in the summer months, while between October and March such activity is much lower. Thunderstorms are also more frequent in spring than in autumn. In the warm season, the occurrence of thunderstorm is associated with the presence of a trough associated with a low located over the North Sea and Scandinavia. In the cold season, the synoptic pattern indicates a strong zonal flow from the west with significantly higher horizontal pressure gradient compared to the warm season. Thunderstorms are more likely to form when the boundary layer's mixing ratios are higher than 8 g kg- 1. Deep convection is also more likely to occur when the vertical temperature lapse rates (between 800 and 500 hPa pressure layers) exceed 6 °C km- 1. During the cold season, considerably higher lapse rates are needed to produce thunderstorms. The values obtained for the convective available potential energy indicate that at least 50 J kg- 1 is needed to produce a thunderstorm during wintertime and 125 J kg- 1 during summertime. Cold season thunderstorms are formed with a lower instability but with a more dynamic wind field having an average value of deep layer shear that exceeds 20 ms- 1. The best parameter to distinguish thunderstorm from non-thunderstorm days for both winter and summer months is a combination of the square root of the convective available potential energy multiplied by the deep layer shear.

  2. On the relationship between atmospheric circulation and the fluctuations in the sea ice extents of the Bering and Okhotsk Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalieri, D. J.; Parkinson, C. L.

    1987-01-01

    The influence of the hemispheric atmospheric circulation on the sea ice covers of the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk is examined using data obtained with the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer for the four winters of the 1973-1976 period. The 3-day averaged sea ice extent data were used to establish periods for which there is an out-of-phase relationship between fluctuations of the two ice covers. A comparison of the sea-level atmospheric pressure field with the seasonal, interannual, and short-term sea ice fluctuations reveal an association between changes in the phase and the amplitude of the long waves in the atmosphere and advance and retreat of Arctic ice covers.

  3. Eddy Effects in the General Circulation, Spanning Mean Currents, Mesoscale Eddies, and Topographic Generation, Including Submesoscale Nests

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    alongshore winds favoring upwelling circulation. As for the other EBUS (e.g., Humboldt, Benguela, and Canary Currents ), equatorward winds drive...Eddy Effects in the General Circulation, Spanning Mean Currents , Mesoscale Eddies, and Topographic Generation, Including Submesoscale Nests...environments OBJECTIVES The central scientific questions are how the eddies control the persistent currents by their eddy-induced momentum and buoyancy fluxes

  4. Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

    2013-07-01

    Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

  5. Comparison of three-dimensional ocean general circulation models on a benchmark problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, M.

    1990-12-01

    A french and an american Ocean General Circulation Models for deep-sea disposal of radioactive wastes are compared on a benchmark test problem. Both models are three-dimensional. They solve the hydrostatic primitive equations of the ocean with two different finite difference techniques. Results show that the dynamics simulated by both models are consistent. Several methods for the running of a model from a known state are tested in the French model: the diagnostic method, the prognostic method, the acceleration of convergence and the robust-diagnostic method

  6. A seasonal forecast scheme for the Inner Mongolia spring drought - Part-I: dynamic characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and forecast signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Si, Yaobing; Yu, Xiao; Wulan; Yang, Peng; Gao, Jing

    2018-02-01

    This study analyzed the atmospheric evolutionary characteristics of insufficient rainfall that leads to spring drought in Inner Mongolia, China. The results revealed that a weakened western Pacific subtropical high and an enlarged North Polar vortex with a western position of the East Asian trough generally result in unfavorable moisture transportation for spring precipitation in IM. It was found that an abnormal sea surface temperature in several crucial ocean areas triggers an irregular atmospheric circulation over the Eurasian continent and the Pacific region. Lower sea surface temperature (SST) during the previous autumn over tropical regions of the central-eastern Pacific and Indian oceans induce a strong Walker circulation, corresponding to a weak and southeastward-retreating subtropical high over the western Pacific during the following winter and spring. Another crucial area is the central region of the North Atlantic Ocean. Abnormally low SST of the ocean area during the preceding autumn causes the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern (the index of which is issued on the website of the Climate Prediction Center, USA) changes to a positive phase, which leads to a weak westerly over the Eurasian continent. In this case, the easterly over the North Pole becomes stronger than normal, resulting in an extended North Polar vortex during the following spring. In addition, SST differences during the previous December between the middle-eastern tropical and the northwestern regions of the Pacific Ocean reflect variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, causing the East Asian trough to move to a western position during the following spring.

  7. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

    2017-01-01

    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  8. Chlorophyll modulation of sea surface temperature in the Arabian Sea in a mixed-layer isopycnal general circulation model

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nakamoto, S.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Muneyama, K.; Frouin, R.

    , embedded in the ocean isopycnal general circulation model (OPYC). A higher abundance of chlorophyll in October than in April in the Arabian Sea increases absorption of solar irradiance and heating rate in the upper ocean, resulting in decreasing the mixed...

  9. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab; Zedler, Sarah E.; Knio, Omar; Jackson, Charles S.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference

  10. Response of the equatorial Pacific to chlorophyll pigment in a mixed layer isopycnal ocean general circulation model

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nakamoto, S.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Oberhuber, J.M.; Ishizaka, J.; Muneyama, K.; Frouin, R.

    The influence of phytoplankton on the upper ocean dynamics and thermodynamics in the equatorial Pacific is investigated using an isopycnal ocean general circulation model (OPYC) coupled with a mixed layer model and remotely sensed chlorophyll...

  11. Modeling the Effects of Inhomogeneous Aerosols on the Hot Jupiter Kepler-7b’s Atmospheric Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Michael; Rauscher, Emily

    2017-11-01

    Motivated by observational evidence of inhomogeneous clouds in exoplanetary atmospheres, we investigate how proposed simple cloud distributions can affect atmospheric circulations and infrared emission. We simulated temperatures and winds for the hot Jupiter Kepler-7b using a three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model that included a simplified aerosol radiative transfer model. We prescribed fixed cloud distributions and scattering properties based on results previously inferred from Kepler-7b optical phase curves, including inhomogeneous aerosols centered along the western terminator and hypothetical cases in which aerosols additionally extended across much of the planet’s nightside. In all cases, a strong jet capable of advecting aerosols from a cooler nightside to dayside was found to persist, but only at the equator. Colder temperatures at mid and polar latitudes might permit aerosol to form on the dayside without the need for advection. By altering the deposition and redistribution of heat, aerosols along the western terminator produced an asymmetric heating that effectively shifts the hottest spot further east of the substellar point than expected for a uniform distribution. The addition of opaque high clouds on the nightside can partly mitigate this enhanced shift by retaining heat that contributes to warming west of the hotspot. These expected differences in infrared phase curves could place constraints on proposed cloud distributions and their infrared opacities for brighter hot Jupiters.

  12. THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF THE HOT JUPITER WASP-43b: COMPARING THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODELS TO SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kataria, Tiffany; Showman, Adam P. [Department of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Fortney, Jonathan J.; Line, Michael R. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Stevenson, Kevin B.; Kreidberg, Laura; Bean, Jacob L. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Désert, Jean-Michel, E-mail: tkataria@astro.ex.ac.uk [CASA, Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States)

    2015-03-10

    The hot Jupiter WASP-43b (2 M{sub J}, 1 R{sub J}, T {sub orb} = 19.5 hr) has now joined the ranks of transiting hot Jupiters HD 189733b and HD 209458b as an exoplanet with a large array of observational constraints. Because WASP-43b receives a similar stellar flux as HD 209458b but has a rotation rate four times faster and a higher gravity, studying WASP-43b probes the effect of rotation rate and gravity on the circulation when stellar irradiation is held approximately constant. Here we present three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation models of WASP-43b, exploring the effects of composition, metallicity, and frictional drag. We find that the circulation regime of WASP-43b is not unlike other hot Jupiters, with equatorial superrotation that yields an eastward-shifted hotspot and large day-night temperature variations (∼600 K at photospheric pressures). We then compare our model results to Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/WFC3 spectrophotometric phase curve measurements of WASP-43b from 1.12 to 1.65 μm. Our results show the 5× solar model light curve provides a good match to the data, with a peak flux phase offset and planet/star flux ratio that is similar to observations; however, the model nightside appears to be brighter. Nevertheless, our 5× solar model provides an excellent match to the WFC3 dayside emission spectrum. This is a major success, as the result is a natural outcome of the 3D dynamics with no model tuning. These results demonstrate that 3D circulation models can help interpret exoplanet atmospheric observations, even at high resolution, and highlight the potential for future observations with HST, James Webb Space Telescope, and other next-generation telescopes.

  13. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the air pollution concentration and temperature inversion in Sosnowiec. Case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widawski Artur

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sosnowiec is located in the Katowice Region, which is the most urbanized and industrialized region in Poland. Urban areas of such character favor enhancement of pollution concentration in the atmosphere and the consequent emergence of smog. Local meteorological and circulation conditions significantly influence not only on the air pollution level but also change air temperature considerably in their centers and immediate vicinities. The synoptic situation also plays the major role in dispersal and concentration of air pollutants and changes in temperature profile. One of the most important are the near-ground (100 m inversions of temperature revealed their highest values on clear winter days and sometimes stay still for the whole day and night. Air temperature inversions in Sosnowiec occur mainly during anticyclone stagnation (Ca-anticyclone centre and Ka-anticyclonic ridge and in anticyclones with air advection from the south and southwest (Sa and SWa which cause significantly increase of air pollution values. The detailed evaluation of the influence of circulation types on the appearance of a particular concentration of pollutants carried out in this work has confirmed the predominant influence of individual circulation types on the development of air pollution levels at the Katowice region. This paper presents research case study results of the thermal structure of the near-ground atmospheric layer (100 m and air pollution parameters (PM10, SO2, NO, NO2 changes in selected days of 2005 year according to regional synoptic circulation types. The changes in urban environment must be taken into account in analyses of multiyear trends of air temperature and air conditions on the regional and global scales.

  14. Atmospheric circulation leading to record breaking precipitation and floods in southern Iberia in December 1876

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Varino, F.; Vaquero, J.; Valente, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The first week of December 1876 was marked by extreme weather conditions that affected the south-western sector of the Iberian Peninsula (IP), leading to an all-time record flow in both large international rivers running from Spain to Portugal, Tagus and Guadiana. As a direct consequence, several towns in centre and south IP suffered serious flood damage. These catastrophic floods were amplified by the occurrence of anomalously wet October and November months, as shown by recently digitised time series for both IP countries. These events resulted from the continuous pouring of precipitation registered between 29 November and 7 December, due to the consecutive Atlantic low-pressure systems and their associated frontal systems that reached the Iberian Peninsula. Using several different data sources, such as historical newspapers of that time, meteorological data recently digitised from several stations in Portugal and Spain and the recently available 20th Century Reanalysis (Compo et al., 2011), we were able (135 years afterwards), to study in detail the damage and the atmospheric circulation conditions associated with this event. The synoptic conditions were represented by 6 hourly fields of complementary variables, namely; 1) precipitation rate and mean sea level pressure (SLP); 2) precipitation rate and CAPE; 3) wind speed intensity and divergence at 250 hPa, 4) wind speed intensity and divergence also at 850 hPa; 5) air temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential height at 500 hPa; 6) wind speed barbs and specific moisture content at 850 hPa. Movies with all these variables were obtained for the 10-day sequence that spans between 29 November and 7 December. For two recently digitised stations in Portugal (Lisbon and Évora), the values of precipitation registered during those weeks were so remarkable that when we computed daily accumulated precipitation successively from 1 to 10 days, the episode of 1876 always stood as the maximum precipitation event, with the

  15. Numerical study of the effects of local atmospheric circulations on a pollution event over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Yucong; Liu, Shuhua; Zheng, Yijia; Wang, Shu; Chen, Bicheng; Zheng, Hui; Zhao, Jingchuan

    2015-04-01

    Currently, the Chinese central government is considering plans to build a trilateral economic sphere in the Bohai Bay area, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (BTH), where haze pollution frequently occurs. To achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to understand the physical mechanism of the haze pollution there. Therefore, the pollutant transport mechanisms of a haze event over the BTH region from 23 to 24 September 2011 were studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the FLEXible-PARTicle dispersion model to understand the effects of the local atmospheric circulations and atmospheric boundary layer structure. Results suggested that the penetration by sea-breeze could strengthen the vertical dispersion by lifting up the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and carry the local pollutants to the downstream areas; in the early night, two elevated pollution layers (EPLs) may be generated over the mountain areas: the pollutants in the upper EPL at the altitude of 2-2.5 km were favored to disperse by long-range transport, while the lower EPL at the altitude of 1 km may serve as a reservoir, and the pollutants there could be transported downward and contribute to the surface air pollution. The intensity of the sea-land and mountain-valley breeze circulations played an important role in the vertical transport and distribution of pollutants. It was also found that the diurnal evolution of the PBLH is important for the vertical dispersion of the pollutants, which is strongly affected by the local atmospheric circulations and the distribution of urban areas. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Winter atmospheric circulation signature for the timing of the spring bloom of diatoms in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, Gerrit; Wiltshire, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Analysing long-term diatom data from the German Bight and observational climate data for the period 1962-2005, we found a close connection of the inter-annual variation of the timing of the spring bloom with the boreal winter atmospheric circulation. We examined the fact that high diatom counts of the spring bloom tended to occur later when the atmospheric circulation was characterized by winter blocking over Scandinavia. The associated pattern in the sea level pressure showed a pressure dipole with two centres located over the Azores and Norway and was tilted compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The bloom was earlier when the cyclonic circulation over Scandinavia allowed an increased inflow of Atlantic water into the North Sea which is associated with clearer, more marine water, and warmer conditions. The bloom was later when a more continental atmospheric flow from the east was detected. At Helgoland Roads, it seems that under turbid water conditions (= low light) zooplankton grazing can affect the timing of the phytoplankton bloom negatively. Warmer water temperatures will facilitate this. Under clear water conditions, light will be the main governing factor with regard to the timing of the spring bloom. These different water conditions are shown here to be mainly related to large-scale weather patterns. We found that the mean diatom bloom could be predicted from the sea level pressure one to three months in advance. Using historical pressure data, we derived a proxy for the timing of the spring bloom over the last centuries, showing an increased number of late (proxy-) blooms during the eighteenth century when the climate was considerably colder than today. We argue that these variations are important for the interpretation of inter-annual to centennial variations of biological processes. This is of particular interest when considering future scenarios, as well to considerations on past and future effects on the primary production and food webs.

  17. Twentieth-century atmospheric river activity along the west coasts of Europe and North America: algorithm formulation, reanalysis uncertainty and links to atmospheric circulation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brands, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; San-Martín, D.

    2017-05-01

    A new atmospheric-river detection and tracking scheme based on the magnitude and direction of integrated water vapour transport is presented and applied separately over 13 regions located along the west coasts of Europe (including North Africa) and North America. Four distinct reanalyses are considered, two of which cover the entire twentieth-century: NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (NOAA-20C) and ECMWF ERA-20C. Calculations are done separately for the OND and JFM-season and, for comparison with previous studies, for the ONDJFM-season as a whole. Comparing the AR-counts from NOAA-20C and ERA-20C with a running 31-year window looping through 1900-2010 reveals differences in the climatological mean and inter-annual variability which, at the start of the twentieth-century, are much more pronounced in western North America than in Europe. Correlating European AR-counts with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reveals a pattern reminiscent of the well-know precipitation dipole which is stable throughout the entire century. A similar analysis linking western North American AR-counts to the North Pacific index (NPI) is hampered by the aforementioned poor reanalysis agreement at the start of the century. During the second half of the twentieth-century, the strength of the NPI-link considerably varies with time in British Columbia and the Gulf of Alaska. Considering the period 1950-2010, AR-counts are then associated with other relevant large-scale circulation indices such as the East Atlantic, Scandinavian, Pacific-North American and West Pacific patterns (EA, SCAND, PNA and WP). Along the Atlantic coastline of the Iberian Peninsula and France, the EA-link is stronger than the NAO-link if the OND season is considered and the SCAND-link found in northern Europe is significant during both seasons. Along the west coast of North America, teleconnections are generally stronger during JFM in which case the NPI-link is significant in any of the five considered

  18. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 39, 7-8 (2012), s. 1681-1695 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Project s: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Grant - others:ENSEMBLES: EU-FP6(XE) 505539 Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Regional climate models * Global climate models * Atmospheric circulation * Surface air temperature * ENSEMBLES * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.231, year: 2012 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-011-1278-8#

  19. The size distribution of chemical elements of atmospheric aerosol at a semi-rural coastal site in Venice (Italy). The role of atmospheric circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masiol, Mauro; Squizzato, Stefania; Ceccato, Daniele; Pavoni, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    The concentrations of selected elemental tracers were determined in the aerosol of a semi-rural coastal site near Venice (Italy). Size-segregated aerosol samples were collected using an 8-stage cascade impactor set at 15m above ground, during the cold season (late autumn and winter), when high levels of many pollutants are known to cause risks for human health. From the experimental data, information was extracted on potential pollutant sources by investigating the relationships between elements in the different size fractions. Moreover, an approach to highlight the importance of local atmospheric circulation and air mass origin in influencing the PM composition and fractional distribution is proposed. Anthropogenic elements are strongly inter-correlated in the submicrometric (4 μm) Fe and Zn are well correlated and are probably linked to tire and brake wear emissions. Regarding atmospheric circulation, results show increasing levels of elements related to pollution sources (S, K, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn) when air masses come from Central and Eastern Europe direction and on the ground wind blows from NWN-N-NE (from mainland Venice). Low wind speed and high percentage of wind calm hours favor element accumulation in the submicrometric and intermediate modes. Furthermore, strong winds favor the formation of sea-spray and the increase of Si in the coarse mode due to the resuspension of sand fine particles. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. What are the most fire-dangerous atmospheric circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the synoptic wildfire climatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A

    2016-01-01

    Wildfire management is closely linked to robust forecasts of changes in wildfire risk related to meteorological conditions. This link can be bridged either through fire weather indices or through statistical techniques that directly relate atmospheric patterns to wildfire activity. In the present work the COST-733 classification schemes are applied in order to link wildfires in Greece with synoptic circulation patterns. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfire events can be explained by a small number of specific synoptic circulations, hence reflecting the synoptic climatology of wildfires. All 8 classification schemes used, prove that the most fire-dangerous conditions in Greece are characterized by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the very Eastern part of the Mediterranean, an atmospheric pressure pattern closely linked to the local Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea. During these events, the atmospheric pressure has been reported to be anomalously high, while anomalously low 500hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies were also observed. Among the various classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis-based classifications, namely the PCT and the PXE, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification LND proved to be the best options, in terms of being capable to isolate the vast amount of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is estimated that these 3 schemes, in combination with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Trace elements controlling the atmospheric circulation. Atmospheric environmental research as part of future FhG research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1986-11-01

    Atmospheric trace substances such as methane (CH/sub 4/), ozone and nitrogen oxides (NO/sub x/) essentially influence the biosphere. FhG research work will be consisting in the long-term measurement of trace substance concentrations in different places (e.g. South Africa, Italy, Thailand or China). An air container packed with measuring instruments and data storage equipment was sent to South America with scientists on board measuring the distribution of trace substances over the northern and southern hemisphere.

  2. Statistical Analysis of Categorical Time Series of Atmospheric Elementary Circulation Mechanisms - Dzerdzeevski Classification for the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenčič, Mihael

    2016-01-01

    Northern hemisphere elementary circulation mechanisms, defined with the Dzerdzeevski classification and published on a daily basis from 1899-2012, are analysed with statistical methods as continuous categorical time series. Classification consists of 41 elementary circulation mechanisms (ECM), which are assigned to calendar days. Empirical marginal probabilities of each ECM were determined. Seasonality and the periodicity effect were investigated with moving dispersion filters and randomisation procedure on the ECM categories as well as with the time analyses of the ECM mode. The time series were determined as being non-stationary with strong time-dependent trends. During the investigated period, periodicity interchanges with periods when no seasonality is present. In the time series structure, the strongest division is visible at the milestone of 1986, showing that the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected in the ECM has significantly changed. This change is result of the change in the frequency of ECM categories; before 1986, the appearance of ECM was more diverse, and afterwards fewer ECMs appear. The statistical approach applied to the categorical climatic time series opens up new potential insight into climate variability and change studies that have to be performed in the future.

  3. The impact of changes in parameterizations of surface drag and vertical diffusion on the large-scale circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindvall, Jenny; Svensson, Gunilla; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-06-01

    Simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) are used to analyze the sensitivity of the large-scale circulation to changes in parameterizations of orographic surface drag and vertical diffusion. Many GCMs and NWP models use enhanced turbulent mixing in stable conditions to improve simulations, while CAM5 cuts off all turbulence at high stabilities and instead employs a strong orographic surface stress parameterization, known as turbulent mountain stress (TMS). TMS completely dominates the surface stress over land and reduces the near-surface wind speeds compared to simulations without TMS. It is found that TMS is generally beneficial for the large-scale circulation as it improves zonal wind speeds, Arctic sea level pressure and zonal anomalies of the 500-hPa stream function, compared to ERA-Interim. It also alleviates atmospheric blocking frequency biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Using a scheme that instead allows for a modest increase of turbulent diffusion at higher stabilities only in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) appears to in some aspects have a similar, although much smaller, beneficial effect as TMS. Enhanced mixing throughout the atmospheric column, however, degrades the CAM5 simulation. Evaluating the simulations in comparison with detailed measurements at two locations reveals that TMS is detrimental for the PBL at the flat grassland ARM Southern Great Plains site, giving too strong wind turning and too deep PBLs. At the Sodankylä forest site, the effect of TMS is smaller due to the larger local vegetation roughness. At both sites, all simulations substantially overestimate the boundary layer ageostrophic flow.

  4. Circulating metabolites and general cognitive ability and dementia: Evidence from 11 cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Lee, Sven J; Teunissen, Charlotte E; Pool, René; Shipley, Martin J; Teumer, Alexander; Chouraki, Vincent; Melo van Lent, Debora; Tynkkynen, Juho; Fischer, Krista; Hernesniemi, Jussi; Haller, Toomas; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Verhoeven, Aswin; Willemsen, Gonneke; de Leeuw, Francisca A; Wagner, Holger; van Dongen, Jenny; Hertel, Johannes; Budde, Kathrin; Willems van Dijk, Ko; Weinhold, Leonie; Ikram, M Arfan; Pietzner, Maik; Perola, Markus; Wagner, Michael; Friedrich, Nele; Slagboom, P Eline; Scheltens, Philip; Yang, Qiong; Gertzen, Robert E; Egert, Sarah; Li, Shuo; Hankemeier, Thomas; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E M; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Maier, Wolfgang; Peeters, Carel F W; Jörgen Grabe, Hans; Ramirez, Alfredo; Seshadri, Sudha; Metspalu, Andres; Kivimäki, Mika; Salomaa, Veikko; Demirkan, Ayşe; Boomsma, Dorret I; van der Flier, Wiesje M; Amin, Najaf; van Duijn, Cornelia M

    2018-01-06

    Identifying circulating metabolites that are associated with cognition and dementia may improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of dementia and provide crucial readouts for preventive and therapeutic interventions. We studied 299 metabolites in relation to cognition (general cognitive ability) in two discovery cohorts (N total = 5658). Metabolites significantly associated with cognition after adjusting for multiple testing were replicated in four independent cohorts (N total = 6652), and the associations with dementia and Alzheimer's disease (N = 25,872) and lifestyle factors (N = 5168) were examined. We discovered and replicated 15 metabolites associated with cognition including subfractions of high-density lipoprotein, docosahexaenoic acid, ornithine, glutamine, and glycoprotein acetyls. These associations were independent of classical risk factors including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes. Six of the cognition-associated metabolites were related to the risk of dementia and lifestyle factors. Circulating metabolites were consistently associated with cognition, dementia, and lifestyle factors, opening new avenues for prevention of cognitive decline and dementia. Copyright © 2018 the Alzheimer's Association. All rights reserved.

  5. Circulating alpha1-antitrypsin in the general population: Determinants and association with lung function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berger Wolfgang

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Severe alpha1-antitrypsin (AAT deficiency associated with low AAT blood concentrations is an established genetic COPD risk factor. Less is known about the respiratory health impact of variation in AAT serum concentrations in the general population. We cross-sectionally investigated correlates of circulating AAT concentrations and its association with FEV1. Methods In 5187 adults (2669 females with high-sensitive c-reactive protein (CRP levels ≤ 10 mg/l from the population-based Swiss SAPALDIA cohort, blood was collected at the time of follow-up examination for measuring serum AAT and CRP. Results Female gender, hormone intake, systolic blood pressure, age in men and in postmenopausal women, as well as active and passive smoking were positively, whereas alcohol intake and BMI inversely correlated with serum AAT levels, independent of CRP adjustment. We observed an inverse association of AAT with FEV1 in the total study population (p Conclusion The results of this population-based study reflect a complex interrelationship between tobacco exposure, gender related factors, circulating AAT, systemic inflammatory status and lung function.

  6. Variability of cold season surface air temperature over northeastern China and its linkage with large-scale atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Yuanhuang; Zhang, Jingyong; Wang, Lin

    2018-05-01

    Cold temperature anomalies and extremes have profound effects on the society, the economy, and the environment of northeastern China (NEC). In this study, we define the cold season as the months from October to April, and investigate the variability of cold season surface air temperature (CSAT) over NEC and its relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns for the period 1981-2014. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first EOF mode of the CSAT over NEC is characterized by a homogeneous structure that describes 92.2% of the total variance. The regionally averaged CSAT over NEC is closely linked with the Arctic Oscillation ( r = 0.62, 99% confidence level) and also has a statistically significant relation with the Polar/Eurasian pattern in the cold season. The positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar/Eurasian pattern tend to result in a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEC and a weakened East Asian winter monsoon, which subsequently increase the CSAT over NEC by enhancing the downward solar radiation, strengthening the subsidence warming and warm air advection. Conversely, the negative phases of these two climate indices result in opposite regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and decrease the CSAT over NEC.

  7. Evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in response to changing ice sheets over the last glacial cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Löfverström

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We present modelling results of the atmospheric circulation at the cold periods of marine isotope stage 5b (MIS 5b, MIS 4 and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, as well as the interglacial. The palaeosimulations are forced by ice-sheet reconstructions consistent with geological evidence and by appropriate insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations. The results suggest that the large-scale atmospheric winter circulation remained largely similar to the interglacial for a significant part of the glacial cycle. The proposed explanation is that the ice sheets were located in areas where their interaction with the mean flow is limited. However, the LGM Laurentide Ice Sheet induces a much larger planetary wave that leads to a zonalisation of the Atlantic jet. In summer, the ice-sheet topography dynamically induces warm temperatures in Alaska and central Asia that inhibits the expansion of the ice sheets into these regions. The warm temperatures may also serve as an explanation for westward propagation of the Eurasian Ice Sheet from MIS 4 to the LGM.

  8. Synoptic-climatological evaluation of the classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Huth, Radan; Beck, Ch.; Kučerová, Monika

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2710-2726 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811; GA MŠk OC 115 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : circulation types * classification * synoptic climatology * COST733 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4546/full

  9. Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Antonsson

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

  10. General circulation and climate changes in the Mid-European area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubert, S.; Hupfer, P.

    1992-01-01

    The long-term changes in the frequency distribution of weather patterns ('Grosswetterlage') are closely related to recent climate variations in the investigation area. However, this simple recording of weather pattern frequency changes is not enough for the complete explanation of the climatic changes which took place in our century in central Europe. One of the causes is the large variability of the weather for identical flow directions. In the case of weather situations which are linked to a low cloudiness degree, especially the temperature is strongly dependent on the duration of the 'Grosswetterlage'. Also when viewed from a long-term view, the climatic characteristics of the GWL air masses are by no means constant. If one considers the course of climate elements under identical circulation conditions, it is found that the average weather sometimes varied considerably in the course of the century although the general flow direction was the same. (orig./KW) [de

  11. Radionuclide analyses taken during primary coolant decontamination at Three Mile Island indicate general circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofstetter, K.J.; Baston, V.F.; Hitz, C.G.; Malinauskas, A.P.

    1983-01-01

    Radionuclide concentration data taken during decontamination of the primary reactor coolant system at Three Mile Island by a feed-and-bleed process have provided information on future defueling operations. Analysis of the radiocesium concentrations in samples taken at the letdown point indicates general circulation within the primary system, including the reactor vessel and both steam generators. A standard dilution model with parameters consistent with engineering estimates (volume, flow rate, etc.) accurately predicts the radiocesium decontamination rates. Unlike cesium, the behavior of other principal soluble radionuclides ( 90 Sr and 3 H) cannot be readily described by dilution theory. A significant appearance rate is observed for 90 Sr suggesting a chemical solubility mechanism. The use of processed water containing high 3 H for makeup causes uncertainty in the interpretation of the 3 H analysis

  12. Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, L.

    1994-01-01

    A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

  13. The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Walsh, Kevin [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Lavender, Sally; Abbs, Deborah [CSIRO Atmospheric and Marine Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Toulouse (France)

    2012-10-15

    The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10-20 N, 20-80 W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169-1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5 ) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig. 1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered. (orig.)

  14. Circulating Irisin Concentrations Are Associated with a Favourable Lipid Profile in the General Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Oelmann

    Full Text Available Irisin is a myokine, which is mainly inversely associated with the risk for non-communicable diseases. Irisin improves cellular energy metabolism by uncoupling the mitochondrial respiratory chain resulting in increased energy expenditure using lipids. To date potential associations between irisin concentration and lipid profile are poorly understood. Therefore, this investigation aimed to evaluate potential associations between irisin and lipid levels in the general population.Data of 430 men and 537 women from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-TREND with available irisin and lipid concentrations were used. Analyses of variance, linear and logistic regression models adjusted for age, HBA1c, waist circumference, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure, ALAT were calculated.We detected significantly inverse associations between irisin and circulating levels of total [beta coefficient 0.21 (standard error 0.08, p = 0.01], low-density cholesterol [-0.16 (0.07, p = 0.03] and triglycerides [-0.17 (0.08, p = 0.02] for men. Females without lipid lowering medication had an inverse association between irisin and total cholesterol [-0.12 (0.06, p = 0.05]. Further, male subjects with irisin concentrations in the third tertile had an increased odds for elevated low-density cholesterol [odds ratio 1.96 (95% confidence interval 1.07-3.48, p = 0.03 and triglyceride [1.95 (1.09-3.47, p = 0.02] levels, even after exclusion of subjects with lipid lowering medication. In addition, our data revealed an annual rhythm of serum irisin levels with peak levels arise in winter and summer months.This is the first investigation to report a significant association between circulating irisin and a favourable lipid profile in the general population. This may infer that higher irisin concentrations are associated with a reduced risk for non-communicable diseases.

  15. A comparative study of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the context of a future scenario (RCP4.5 and past warmth (mid-Pliocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Sun

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The mid-Pliocene warm period (~ 3.3–3.0 Ma is often considered as the last sustained warm period with close enough geographic configurations compared to the present one associated with atmospheric CO2 concentration (405 ± 50 ppm higher than the modern level. For this reason, this period is often considered as a potential analogue for the future climate warming, with the important advantage that for mid-Pliocene many marine and continental data are available. To investigate this issue, we selected the RCP4.5 scenario, one of the current available future projections, to compare the pattern of tropical atmospheric response with the past warm mid-Pliocene climate. We use three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM simulations (RCP4.5 scenario, mid-Pliocene and present-day simulation carried out with the IPSL-CM5A model and investigate atmospheric tropical dynamics through Hadley and Walker cell responses to warmer conditions, considering that the analysis can provide some assessment of how these circulations will change in the future. Our results show that there is a damping of the Hadley cell intensity in the northern tropics and an increase in both subtropics. Moreover, northern and southern Hadley cells expand poleward. The response of the Hadley cells is stronger for the RCP4.5 scenario than for the mid-Pliocene, but in very good agreement with the fact that the atmospheric CO2 concentration is higher in the future scenario than in the mid-Pliocene (543 versus 405 ppm. Concerning the response of the Walker cell, we show that despite very large similarities, there are also some differences. Common features to both scenarios are: weakening of the ascending branch, leading to a suppression of the precipitation over the western tropical Pacific. The response of the Walker cell is stronger in the RCP4.5 scenario than in the mid-Pliocene but also depicts some major differences, as an eastward shift of its rising branch in the future

  16. Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

    2018-04-01

    Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

  17. The influence of solar activity on action centres of atmospheric circulation in North Atlantic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sfîcă, L.; Voiculescu, M.; Huth, Radan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 2 (2015), s. 207-215 ISSN 0992-7689 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12053 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : meteorology and atmospheric dynamics * sea-level pressure * Maunder minimum * climate-change * decadal scale * variability * hemisphere * winter * cycle * stratosphere * troposphere Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.731, year: 2015

  18. Models for changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, ocean geochemistry and circulation during the late Pleistocene

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; SenGupta, R.

    in oceanic alkalinity (and hence a decrease in atmospheric CO@d2@@) due to CaCO@d3@@ compensation. A likely mechanism for this rearrangement could be an orbital-forced insolation related increase in biological production in the Southern Ocean. This, coupled...

  19. On the dynamics of droughts in northeast Brazil - Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, A. D.; Shukla, J.

    1981-01-01

    The establishment of a thermally direct local circulation which has its ascending branch at about 10 deg N and its descending branch over northeast Brazil and the adjoining oceanic region is proposed as a possible mechanism for the occurrence of severe droughts over this Brazilian region. The driving for this anomalous circulation is provided by enhanced moist convection due to the effect of warmer sea surface anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic and cooling associated with colder sea surface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Atlantic. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally-controlled and thermally-driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere, and a series of numerical experiments are carried out to test the sensitivity of the Goddard Laboratory's model to prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Atlantic.

  20. An idealized radiative transfer scheme for use in a mechanistic general circulation model from the surface up to the mesopause region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoepfel, Rahel; Becker, Erich

    2011-01-01

    A new and numerically efficient method to compute radiative flux densities and heating rates in a general atmospheric circulation model is presented. Our method accommodates the fundamental differences between the troposphere and middle atmosphere in the long-wave regime within a single parameterization that extends continuously from the surface up to the mesopause region and takes the deviations from the gray limit and from the local thermodynamic equilibrium into account. For this purpose, frequency-averaged Eddington-type transfer equations are derived for four broad absorber bands. The frequency variation inside each band is parameterized by application of the Elsasser band model extended by a slowly varying envelope function. This yields additional transfer equations for the perturbation amplitudes that are solved numerically along with the mean transfer equations. Deviations from local thermodynamic equilibrium are included in terms of isotropic scattering, calculating the single scattering albedo from the two-level model for each band. Solar radiative flux densities are computed for four energetically defined bands using the simple Beer-Bougert-Lambert relation for absorption within the atmosphere. The new scheme is implemented in a mechanistic general circulation model from the surface up to the mesopause region. A test simulation with prescribed concentrations of the radiatively active constituents shows quite reasonable results. In particular, since we take the full surface energy budget into account by means of a swamp ocean, and since the internal dynamics and turbulent diffusion of the model are formulated in accordance with the conservation laws, an equilibrated climatological radiation budget is obtained both at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface.

  1. Equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface current variability in an Ocean General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanaseelan, C.; Deshpande, Aditi

    2018-03-01

    The variability of subsurface currents in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied using high resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations during 1958-2009. February-March eastward equatorial subsurface current (ESC) shows weak variability whereas strong variability is observed in northern summer and fall ESC. An eastward subsurface current with maximum amplitude in the pycnocline is prominent right from summer to winter during strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years when air-sea coupling is significant. On the other hand during weak IOD years, both the air-sea coupling and the ESC are weak. This strongly suggests the role of ESC on the strength of IOD. The extension of the ESC to the summer months during the strong IOD years strengthens the oceanic response and supports intensification and maintenance of IODs through modulation of air sea coupling. Although the ESC is triggered by equatorial winds, the coupled air-sea interaction associated with IODs strengthens the ESC to persist for several seasons thereby establishing a positive feedback cycle with the surface. This suggests that the ESC plays a significant role in the coupled processes associated with the evolution and intensification of IOD events by cooling the eastern basin and strengthening thermocline-SST (sea surface temperature) interaction. As the impact of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon is significant only during strong IOD years, understanding and monitoring the evolution of ESC during these years is important for summer monsoon forecasting purposes. There is a westward phase propagation of anomalous subsurface currents which persists for a year during strong IOD years, whereas such persistence or phase propagation is not seen during weak IOD years, supporting the close association between ESC and strength of air sea coupling during strong IOD years. In this study we report the processes which strengthen the IOD events and the air sea coupling associated with IOD. It also unravels

  2. The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Gareth J; Thompson, David W J; van den Broeke, Michiel R

    2017-11-28

    We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high-latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled-climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone.

  3. Will the future atmospheric circulation favor the landfall of Sandy-like superstorms? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, E. A.; Polvani, L. M.; Sobel, A. H.

    2013-12-01

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the Eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here, we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  4. Atmospheric HT and HTO: V. distribution and large-scale circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, A.S.; Oestlund, H.G.

    1979-01-01

    The two major chemical forms of atmospheric tritium are water vapour (HTO) and hydrogen gas (HT). These forms have quite different sources, distributions and sinks. The chemical conversion from HT to HTO in the atmosphere proceeds with a characteristic time of 6.5 years. Combined with the radioactive decay, a net lifetime of 4.8 years is estimated for atmospheric HT. HT is released predominately at the surface in mid- to high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. A negative gradient southward has been found from aircraft transects and from sampling at surface stations. After many years of a relatively constant global inventory of 1.1 kg of tritium gas, the HT mixing ratios decreased during 1977, with the sharpest drop at high latitudes. The estimated decline in annual production was 100 g. At the end of 1977, the atmospheric HT burden was 1.0 kg, and the estimated annual release was 200 g. An unknown portion is present as T 2 gas. The effect of T 2 is to decrease the net lifetime to 3.7 years. In the troposphere, the cycle of HTO has been treated exhaustively by others. The stratospheric distribution of HTO has been sampled from aircraft, and found to increase rapidly with height above the troposphere. An annual cycle has been observed, in which the lower stratosphere is depleted during the spring, and replenished by subsidence from higher levels during summer and fall. The effects of a nuclear test by the People's Republic of China in November 1976 have been clearly observed in the stratospheric HTO; however, no HT deposition was found. Presumably, the HTO at higher levels was originally deposited by the large nuclear weapons tests of the 1960s. An estimated 5 kg of tritium are now present in the stratosphere below 19 km. (author)

  5. Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peings, Yannick; Magnusdottir, Gudrun

    2014-01-01

    The North Atlantic sea surface temperature exhibits fluctuations on the multidecadal time scale, a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This letter demonstrates that the multidecadal fluctuations of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are tied to the AMO, with an opposite-signed relationship between the polarities of the AMO and the NAO. Our statistical analyses suggest that the AMO signal precedes the NAO by 10–15 years with an interesting predictability window for decadal forecasting. The AMO footprint is also detected in the multidecadal variability of the intraseasonal weather regimes of the North Atlantic sector. This observational evidence is robust over the entire 20th century and it is supported by numerical experiments with an atmospheric global climate model. The simulations suggest that the AMO-related SST anomalies induce the atmospheric anomalies by shifting the atmospheric baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic basin. As in observations, the positive phase of the AMO results in more frequent negative NAO—and blocking episodes in winter that promote the occurrence of cold extreme temperatures over the eastern United States and Europe. Thus, it is plausible that the AMO plays a role in the recent resurgence of severe winter weather in these regions and that wintertime cold extremes will be promoted as long as the AMO remains positive. (paper)

  6. Evaluation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Impact on Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in the Atlantic Region in Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, V. A.; Cherenkova, E. A.

    2018-02-01

    The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic region in summer for the period of 1950-2015 is investigated. It is shown that the intensification of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with significant changes in sea level pressure anomalies in the main centers of action (over Greenland and the British Isles) occurred while the North Atlantic was cooler. Sea surface temperature anomalies, which are linked to the AMO in the summer season, affect both the NAO index and fluctuations of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) centers of action. The positive (negative) phase of the AMO is characterized by a combination of negative (positive) values of the NAO and EAWR indices. The dominance of the opposite phases of the teleconnection indices in summer during the warm North Atlantic and in its colder period resulted in differences in the regional climate in Europe.

  7. Effect of Gravity Waves from Small Islands in the Southern Ocean on the Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, C. I.; Oman, L. D.

    2018-01-01

    The effect of small islands in the Southern Ocean on the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is considered with a series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model in which the gravity wave stress generated by these islands is increased to resemble observed values. The enhanced gravity wave drag leads to a 2 K warming of the springtime polar stratosphere, partially ameliorating biases in this region. Resolved wave drag declines in the stratospheric region in which the added orographic gravity waves deposit their momentum, such that changes in gravity waves are partially compensated by changes in resolved waves, though resolved wave drag increases further poleward. The orographic drag from these islands has impacts for surface climate, as biases in tropospheric jet position are also partially ameliorated. These results suggest that these small islands are likely contributing to the missing drag near 60 degrees S in the upper stratosphere evident in many data assimilation products.

  8. "New Climate" Warmed, "New Atmospheric Circulation" and "Extreme" Meteorological Phenomena associated with El Niño 2015-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karrouk, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    Cumulating ocean-atmospheric thermal energy caused by global warming has resulted in the reversal of the energy balance towards the poles. This situation is characterized by a new ocean-continental thermal distribution: over the ocean, the balance is more in excess than in the mainland, if not the opposite when the balance is negative inland.Thanks to satellite observation and daily monitoring of meteorological conditions for more than ten years, we have observed that the positive balance has shifted more towards the poles, mainly in the northern hemisphere. Subtropical anticyclones are strengthened and have extended to high latitudes, especially over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This situation creates global peaks strengthened in winter periods, and imposes on cosmic cold the deep advection toward the south under the form of planetary valleys "Polar Vortex".This situation imposes on the jet stream a pronounced ripple and installs a meridional atmospheric circulation in winter, which brings the warm tropical air masses to reach the Arctic Circle, and cold polar air masses to reach North Africa and Florida.This situation creates unusual atmospheric events, characterized by hydrothermal "extreme" conditions: excessive heat at high latitudes, accompanied by heavy rains and floods, as well as cold at low latitudes and the appearance of snow in the Sahara!The populations are profoundly influenced by the new phenomena. The socioeconomic infrastructures can no longer assume their basic functions and man when unprotected is weak and hence the advanced vulnerability of all the regions especially those belonging to poor and developing countriesRecent studies have shown that global and regional climate system is affected by extreme events of El Niño. Statistical and dynamic links have been confirmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe; hence the importance of the fall situation and winter 2015-2016.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" warmed

  9. A Study of Subseasonal Predictability of the Atmospheric Circulation Low-frequency Modes based on SL-AV forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruglova, Ekaterina; Kulikova, Irina; Khan, Valentina; Tischenko, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The subseasonal predictability of low-frequency modes and the atmospheric circulation regimes is investigated based on the using of outputs from global Semi-Lagrangian (SL-AV) model of the Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Science. Teleconnection indices (AO, WA, EA, NAO, EU, WP, PNA) are used as the quantitative characteristics of low-frequency variability to identify zonal and meridional flow regimes with focus on control distribution of high impact weather patterns in the Northern Eurasia. The predictability of weekly and monthly averaged indices is estimated by the methods of diagnostic verification of forecast and reanalysis data covering the hindcast period, and also with the use of the recommended WMO quantitative criteria. Characteristics of the low frequency variability have been discussed. Particularly, it is revealed that the meridional flow regimes are reproduced by SL-AV for summer season better comparing to winter period. It is shown that the model's deterministic forecast (ensemble mean) skill at week 1 (days 1-7) is noticeably better than that of climatic forecasts. The decrease of skill scores at week 2 (days 8-14) and week 3( days 15-21) is explained by deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. It was noticed the slightly improvement of the skill of model at week 4 (days 22-28), when the condition of atmosphere is more determined by the flow of energy from the outside. The reliability of forecasts of monthly (days 1-30) averaged indices is comparable to that at week 1 (days 1-7). Numerical experiments demonstrated that the forecast accuracy can be improved (thus the limit of practical predictability can be extended) through the using of probabilistic approach based on ensemble forecasts. It is shown that the quality of forecasts of the regimes of circulation like blocking is higher, than that of zonal flow.

  10. A high-resolution Holocene speleothem record from NE Romania: the nexus of Arctic and North Atlantic atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constantin, S.; Pourmand, A.; Moldovan, O.; Sharifi, A.; Mehterian, S.; Swart, P. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Romanian Carpathians act as a geomorphological barrier between different atmospheric circulation systems over Central and Eastern Europe; the NW of Romania lies under the remote influence of the North Atlantic oscillation, while the NE is influenced by the Arctic climate. In NW Romania, previous stable isotope studies of speleothems have not yielded a clear account of abrupt climate oscillations during the Holocene. Here we present results from a stalagmite collected from the Tauşoare Cave, located in NE Carpathians. The chronology of stalagmite T141 is based on 15 high-precision Th/U dates ranging between 32 and 1.1 ka with a continuous growth between 13.3 and 1.1 ka. The portion of the record within the Holocene was analyzed for δ18O and δ13C at a resolution ranging between 15 to 200 years/sample. The resulting δ18O record captures the Younger Dryas (YD) event centered at 12.9 ka, with δ18O values about 4 ‰ more depleted than those corresponding to the Holocene Climatic Optimum. The 8.2 ka event appears to be also captured in the record, although less prominent. The T141 isotope record is significantly different when compared to coeval records measured in speleothems from NW Carpathians, which do not exhibit marked changes during the YD or 8.2 ka events. This is likely due to the contrasting effect of temperature and atmospheric transport on δ18O signal in NW Romania. Within a distance of 200 km to the east, on the eastern flank of the Carpathian range, the δ18O signal of the Arctic circulation appears to be more prominent and clearly exhibits a positive relationship with temperature changes.

  11. Butterflies, Black swans and Dragon kings: How to use the Dynamical Systems Theory to build a "zoology" of mid-latitude circulation atmospheric extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faranda, D.; Yiou, P.; Alvarez-Castro, M. C. M.

    2015-12-01

    A combination of dynamical systems and statistical techniques allows for a robust assessment of the dynamical properties of the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Extremes at different spatial and time scales are not only associated to exceptionally intense weather structures (e.g. extra-tropical cyclones) but also to rapid changes of circulation regimes (thunderstorms, supercells) or the extreme persistence of weather structure (heat waves, cold spells). We will show how the dynamical systems theory of recurrence combined to the extreme value theory can take into account the spatial and temporal dependence structure of the mid-latitude circulation structures and provide information on the statistics of extreme events.

  12. Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Touchan, Ramzi; Funkhouser, Gary; Hughes, Malcolm K. [The University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson, AZ (United States); Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Juerg [University of Bern, Institute of Geography and NCCR Climate, Bern (Switzerland); Erkan, Nesat [Southwest Anatolia Forest Research Institute (SAFRI), Antalya (Turkey); Akkemik, Uenal [University of Istanbul, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Botany, Bahcekoey-Istanbul (Turkey); Stephan, Jean [Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry Department, Beirut (Lebanon)

    2005-07-01

    This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885-2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800-2000, 1700-2000, 1600-2000, 1500-2000 and 1400-2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931-2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May-August precipitation, was 5 years (1591-1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601-1605 and 1751-1755). No long term trends were found in May-August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May-August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40 N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last

  13. Statistical analysis of simulated global soil moisture and its memory in an ensemble of CMIP5 general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiß, Felix; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Soil moisture and its memory can have a strong impact on near surface temperature and precipitation and have the potential to promote severe heat waves, dry spells and floods. To analyze how soil moisture is simulated in recent general circulation models (GCMs), soil moisture data from a 23 model ensemble of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are examined for the period 1979 to 2008 with regard to parameterization and statistical characteristics. With respect to soil moisture processes, the models vary in their maximum soil and root depth, the number of soil layers, the water-holding capacity, and the ability to simulate freezing which all together leads to very different soil moisture characteristics. Differences in the water-holding capacity are resulting in deviations in the global median soil moisture of more than one order of magnitude between the models. In contrast, the variance shows similar absolute values when comparing the models to each other. Thus, the input and output rates by precipitation and evapotranspiration, which are computed by the atmospheric component of the models, have to be in the same range. Most models simulate great variances in the monsoon areas of the tropics and north western U.S., intermediate variances in Europe and eastern U.S., and low variances in the Sahara, continental Asia, and central and western Australia. In general, the variance decreases with latitude over the high northern latitudes. As soil moisture trends in the models were found to be negligible, the soil moisture anomalies were calculated by subtracting the 30 year monthly climatology from the data. The length of the memory is determined from the soil moisture anomalies by calculating the first insignificant autocorrelation for ascending monthly lags (insignificant autocorrelation folding time). The models show a great spread of autocorrelation length from a few months in

  14. Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasian, Mohammadsadegh; Moghim, Sanaz; Abrishamchi, Ahmad

    2018-03-01

    General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901-2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria.

  15. Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting using Deep Learning with Downscaled Multi-General Circulation Models (GCMs) Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Fang, N. Z.

    2017-12-01

    Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) has a population of over 7 million depending on many water supply reservoirs. The reservoir inflow plays a vital role in water supply decision making process and long-term strategic planning for the region. This paper demonstrates a method of utilizing deep learning algorithms and multi-general circulation model (GCM) platform to forecast reservoir inflow for three reservoirs within the DFW: Eagle Mountain Lake, Lake Benbrook and Lake Arlington. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was firstly employed to extract the features, which were then represented by the deep belief networks (DBNs). The first 75 years of the historical data (1940 -2015) were used to train the model, while the last 2 years of the data (2016-2017) were used for the model validation. The weights of each DBN gained from the training process were then applied to establish a neural network (NN) that was able to forecast reservoir inflow. Feature predictors used for the forecasting model were generated from weather forecast results of the downscaled multi-GCM platform for the North Texas region. By comparing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) with the observed data, the authors found that the deep learning with downscaled multi-GCM platform is an effective approach in the reservoir inflow forecasting.

  16. Coastal atmospheric circulation assessment for emergency off-site dose considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burda, T.J.; Kasprak, A.; Daverio, C.; Martin, G.; Matura, A.D.

    1985-01-01

    More than 40 nuclear facilities are located near large bodies of water and are influenced by seasonal and diurnal lake/sea breeze phenomena. Atmospheric transport in the vicinity of the Shoreham nuclear power plant is affected, in part, by the sound breeze generated by Long Island Sound and/or the ocean breeze generated by the Atlantic Ocean. The sound and ocean breeze phenomena produce spatial discrepancies in the wind field within the Shoreham Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) during the morning to early evening hours throughout the spring to early autumn. In addition, there is a potential trajectory reversal to the sound/ocean breeze front. Two simple, easy-to-use procedures were developed that could be used by plant personnel to determine in real time (a) the presence of a sound and/or ocean breeze front located within the Shoreham EPZ and (b) the significant plume impact region resulting from an unscheduled release during this condition

  17. Ocean-atmosphere pollutant circulation processes: The Heligoland Bight ecosystem (PRISMA). 2. interim report (1991)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The PRISMA BMFT project is an important stage on the way to a comprehensive knowledge of the impacts of pollutants on the North Sea/Heligoland Bight ecosystem. The overall project is dedicated to the development, verification and application of a complex shelf-sea model which provides qualitative and quantitative data about the causal interactions between the basic atmospheric conditions, the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of the water, the chemical reactons in the air, in the water and the sediments, and the activity of organisms. The model comprises a compact set of formulae, process formulations, initial and marginal conditions and empirical parameters which serves to describe the origin, transport, reactions and final deposition of pollutants in the North Sea, helps to analyze and elucidate the present condition of the ecosystem and its spatial and temporal variability, and provides forecasts in accordance with the changing natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. (orig.) [de

  18. The impact of radiatively active water-ice clouds on Martian mesoscale atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiga, A.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Hinson, D.; Navarro, T.; Forget, F.

    2014-04-01

    Background and Goals Water ice clouds are a key component of the Martian climate [1]. Understanding the properties of the Martian water ice clouds is crucial to constrain the Red Planet's climate and hydrological cycle both in the present and in the past [2]. In recent years, this statement have become all the more true as it was shown that the radiative effects of water ice clouds is far from being as negligible as hitherto believed; water ice clouds plays instead a key role in the large-scale thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian atmosphere [3, 4, 5]. Nevertheless, the radiative effect of water ice clouds at lower scales than the large synoptic scale (the so-called meso-scales) is still left to be explored. Here we use for the first time mesoscale modeling with radiatively active water ice clouds to address this open question.

  19. Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

    2017-12-01

    Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

  20. Reassessing the impacts and the atmospheric circulation of the large storms over Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varino, F.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.

    2012-04-01

    The present work was made possible after the recently development of a database of flooding and landslide events that occurred in Portugal during the 20 century. This database was collected through careful analysis of most available daily Portuguese newspapers at the time, namely "Diário de Noticias" and "Século" describing the consequences of important hydro-geological hazards during the 20 century. Therefore it is possible to evaluate the impact of these events through relatively detailed reports of the most affected places, including; number of deaths, dislodged and evacuated people, and even involved rescue entities or costs. On the other hand, the analysis of meteorological conditions for these events was made possible through the recent development of the 20 Century Reanalysis dataset from National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Compo et al., 2011), that covers the entire period in study. This long-term database allows re-evaluating the atmospheric conditions not only at the surface but also at several levels of the atmosphere, enabling a new approach to the studied events. Moreover, the new reanalysis is also more extended in time, with available data from 1871 until 2008 which makes it possible to represent and study the weather events before 1948 with a new perspective. In this work it is analysed in detail the most important and devastating storm that took place since 1871, including the strongest sequence of storms ever observed in early December 1876 that lead to catastrophic floods in river Guadiana and Tagus. Other extreme events episodes that took place throughout the 20 century and never studied before are also analysed (albeit in less detail), namely on the 22 December 1909, 20 November 1937, 23 January and 1 February 1941, 19 November 1945, 2 January 1962 and 25 November 1967 the deadliest flood ever that occurred in Portugal. For each event it was computed the sequence of 6 hourly weather fields of precipitation rate and mean sea

  1. Simulating Mars' Dust Cycle with a Mars General Circulation Model: Effects of Water Ice Cloud Formation on Dust Lifting Strength and Seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

    2012-01-01

    The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere [1,2,3]. Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer [4]. Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across [5]. Regional storm activity is enhanced before northern winter solstice (Ls200 degrees - 240 degrees), and after northern solstice (Ls305 degrees - 340 degrees ), which produces elevated atmospheric dust loadings during these periods [5,6,7]. These pre- and post- solstice increases in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere with cross-equatorial transport of dust leading to enhanced dust lifting in the southern hemisphere [6]. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles [8,9,10]. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading.

  2. North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; Jimenez, P.A. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Navarro, J. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Xoplaki, E. [University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Montavez, J.P. [Universidad de Murcia, Departamento de Fisica, Murcia (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992-2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified

  3. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-08-01

    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  4. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  5. Long Distance Pollen Transport to the Arctic: a Useful Proxy to Calibrate Atmospheric Circulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseau, D.; Schevin, P.; Duzer, D.; Jolly, D.; Cambon, G.

    2004-12-01

    Tracing modern atmosphere dynamics is important to constrain models used for past climate reconstruction. The main types of tracers of arctic air masses are chemical and show different patterns. Dust in the ice at the summit of the Greenland ice cap has been shown, through isotope analyses, to have originated from Chinese deserts, mostly the Takla Makan and Gobi. Conversely, the chemical composition of the aerosols reaching the summit of the ice cap associated with backward air masses trajectories points to source areas in North America, Europe and Asia. A total of four pollen traps have been displayed on both western and eastern coasts of Greenland during the last four years in order to assess long distance transport in the Arctic domain and to identify potential vegetation source areas associated with air mass pathways. We are demonstrating the long distance transport of pollen originating from North America, Great Lakes area to southern Greenland at least during two consecutives years, 2002 and 2003. Thus a regular pattern of air masses responsible for the transport of pollen grains from North America to Greenland should be constant, as already described for anthropogenic pollutants. Another pollen trap was installed on the sea ice during the ice-sea drift expedition from North Pole of French explorer Dr. Jean-Louis Etienne in 2002. In that case we demonstrate two long distance transport to the North Pole from two different Eurasian regions during 2002: western Europe and eastern Siberia. Until now the use of pollen as an air mass tracer had not yet been investigated. Here we show that first evidence pollen represents a biological alternative to understand both present and past air mass dynamics in the Arctic and its associated relationship with biosphere changes.

  6. Tracer simulation using a global general circulation model: Results from a midlatitude instantaneous source experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlman, J.D.; Moxim, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    An 11-level general circulation model with seasonal variation is used to perform an experiment on the dispersion of passive tracers. Specially constructed time-dependent winds from this model are used as input to a separate tracer model. The methodologies employed to construct the tracer model are described.The experiment presented is the evolution of a hypothetical instantaneous source of tracer on 1 Janaury with maximum initial concentration at 65 mb, 36 0 N, 180 0 E. The tracer is assumed to have no sources or sinks in the stratosphere, but is subject to removal processes in the lower troposphere.The experimental results reveal a number of similarities to observed tracer behavior, including the average poleward-downward slope of mixing ratio isopleths, strong tracer gradients across the tropopause, intrusion of tracer into the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere, and the long-term interhemispheric exchange rate. The model residence times show behavior intermediate to those exhibited for particulate radioactive debris and gaseous C 14 O 2 . This suggests that caution should be employed when either radioactive debris or C 14 O 2 data are used to develop empirical models for prediction of gaseous tracers which are efficiently removed in the troposphere.In this experiment, the tracer mixing ratio and potential vorticity evolve to very high correlations. Mechanisms for this correlation are discussed. The zonal mean tracer balances exhibit complex behavior among the various transport terms. At early stages, the tracer evolution is dominated by eddy effects. Later, a very large degree of self-cancellation between mean cell and eddy effects is observed. During seasonal transitions, however, this self-cancellation diminishes markedly, leading to significant changes in the zonal mean tracer distribution. A possible theoretical explanation is presented

  7. Key Elements of the User-Friendly, GFDL SKYHI General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard S. Hemler

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past seven years, the portability of the GFDL SKYHI general circulation model has greatly increased. Modifications to the source code have allowed SKYHI to be run on the GFDL Cray Research PVP machines, the TMC CM-5 machine at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and more recently on the GFDL 40-processor Cray Research T3E system. At the same time, changes have been made to the model to make it more usable and flexible. Because of the reduction of the human resources available to manage and analyze scientific experiments, it is no longer acceptable to consider only the optimization of computer resources when producing a research code; one must also consider the availability and cost of the people necessary to maintain, modify and use the model as an investigative tool, and include these factors in defining the form of the model code. The new SKYHI model attempts to strike a balance between the optimization of the use of machine resources (CPU time, memory, disc and the optimal use of human resources (ability to understand code, ability to modify code, ability to perturb code to do experiments, ability to run code on different platforms. Two of the key features that make the new SKYHI code more usable and flexible are the archiving package and the user variable block. The archiving package is used to manage the writing of all archive files, which contain data for later analysis. The model-supplied user variable block allows the easy inclusion of any new variables needed for particular experiments.

  8. Climate Simulations from Super-parameterized and Conventional General Circulation Models with a Third-order Turbulence Closure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

    2014-05-01

    A high-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) embedded in a general circulation model (GCM) is an attractive alternative for climate modeling because it replaces all traditional cloud parameterizations and explicitly simulates cloud physical processes in each grid column of the GCM. Such an approach is called "Multiscale Modeling Framework." MMF still needs to parameterize the subgrid-scale (SGS) processes associated with clouds and large turbulent eddies because circulations associated with planetary boundary layer (PBL) and in-cloud turbulence are unresolved by CRMs with horizontal grid sizes on the order of a few kilometers. A third-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) has been implemented in the CRM component of the super-parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM). IPHOC is used to predict (or diagnose) fractional cloudiness and the variability of temperature and water vapor at scales that are not resolved on the CRM's grid. This model has produced promised results, especially for low-level cloud climatology, seasonal variations and diurnal variations (Cheng and Xu 2011, 2013a, b; Xu and Cheng 2013a, b). Because of the enormous computational cost of SPCAM-IPHOC, which is 400 times of a conventional CAM, we decided to bypass the CRM and implement the IPHOC directly to CAM version 5 (CAM5). IPHOC replaces the PBL/stratocumulus, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterizations in CAM5. Since there are large discrepancies in the spatial and temporal scales between CRM and CAM5, IPHOC used in CAM5 has to be modified from that used in SPCAM. In particular, we diagnose all second- and third-order moments except for the fluxes. These prognostic and diagnostic moments are used to select a double-Gaussian probability density function to describe the SGS variability. We also incorporate a diagnostic PBL height parameterization to represent the strong inversion above PBL. The goal of this study is to compare the simulation of the climatology from these three

  9. Interannual Variability of the Meridional Width of the Baiu Rainband in June and the Associated Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuji, K.; Tomita, T.

    2016-12-01

    Baiu front, which is defined as a boundary between tropical and polar air masses in the East Asia-western North Pacific sector in boreal early summer, slowly migrates northward with the daily meridional swings. Thus, the interannual variability of meridional width of the baiu rainband reflects the slow northward migration and the daily meridional swings of the baiu front. This study focuses on the meridional width of baiu rainband only in June when the baiu front extends on Japan, and investigates how the width is related to the rainfall of Japan with discussions of associated anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulations. The meridional width of baiu rainband is defined based on the monthly-mean precipitation rate of June, whose threshold is 5mm day-1 that is averaged in 130°-150°E. There is a significant positive correlation between the variations of southern and northern edges of the baiu rainband in June. However, the interannual variance of the southern edge is almost twice larger than that of the northern one. That is, the interannual variability of the meridional width is chiefly caused by the variations of southern edge, and the contribution of northern ones is small. When the meridonal width is narrow (wide), an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation appears to the south of Japan, and the precipitation rate increases (decreases) in the western part of Japan while decreases (increases) in the counterpart. In other words, a local dipole with a node at 140°E appears around Japan in the baiu rainfall anomalies. The anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation to the south of Japan, which controls the interannual variability of meridional width of the baiu rainband, is induced by the strength of Indian summer monsoon. When the convective activity of Indian summer monsoon is strong (week), the Tibetan high in the upper troposphere extends more (less) eastward. The induced stronger (weaker) descent leads stronger (weaker) Bonin high in the western

  10. Low-frequency variability of the atmospheric circulation: a comparison of statistical properties in both hemispheres and extreme seasons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buzzi, A.; Tosi, E.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical investigation is presented of the main variables characterizing the tropospheric general circulation in both hemispheres and extreme season, Winter and Summer. This gives up the opportunity of comparing four distinct realizations of the planetary circulation, as function of different orographic and thermal forcing conditions. Our approach is made possible by the availability of 6 years of global daily analyses prepared by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast). The variables taken into account are the zonal geostrophic wind, the zonal thermal wind and various large-scala wave components, averaged over the tropospheric depth between 1000 and 200 hPa. The mean properties of the analysed quantities in each hemisphere and season are compared and their principal characteristics are discussed. The probability density estimates for the same variables, filtered in order to eliminate the seasonal cycle and the high frequency 'noise', are then presented. The distributions are examined, in particular, with respect of their unimodal or multimodal nature and with reference to the recent discussion in the literature on the bimodality which has been found for some indicators of planetary wave activity in the Nothern Hemisphere Winter. Our results indicate the presence of nonunimodally distributed wave and zonal flow components in both hemispheres and extreme season. The most frequent occurrence of nonunimodal behaviour is found for those wave components which exhibit an almost vanishing zonal phase speed and a larger 'response' to orographic forcing

  11. Variational estimation of process parameters in a simplified atmospheric general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Guokun; Koehl, Armin; Stammer, Detlef

    2016-04-01

    Parameterizations are used to simulate effects of unresolved sub-grid-scale processes in current state-of-the-art climate model. The values of the process parameters, which determine the model's climatology, are usually manually adjusted to reduce the difference of model mean state to the observed climatology. This process requires detailed knowledge of the model and its parameterizations. In this work, a variational method was used to estimate process parameters in the Planet Simulator (PlaSim). The adjoint code was generated using automatic differentiation of the source code. Some hydrological processes were switched off to remove the influence of zero-order discontinuities. In addition, the nonlinearity of the model limits the feasible assimilation window to about 1day, which is too short to tune the model's climatology. To extend the feasible assimilation window, nudging terms for all state variables were added to the model's equations, which essentially suppress all unstable directions. In identical twin experiments, we found that the feasible assimilation window could be extended to over 1-year and accurate parameters could be retrieved. Although the nudging terms transform to a damping of the adjoint variables and therefore tend to erases the information of the data over time, assimilating climatological information is shown to provide sufficient information on the parameters. Moreover, the mechanism of this regularization is discussed.

  12. ENSO dynamics and seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific as simulated by the ECHAM4/OPYC3 coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bacher, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Oberhuber, J.M. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Roeckner, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-07-01

    The new version of the atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM4, at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, has been coupled to the OPYC3 isopycnic global ocean general circulation and sea ice model (Oberhuber 1993) in a multi-century present-day climate simulation. Nonseasonal constant flux adjustment for heat and freshwater was employed to ensure a long-term annual mean state close to present day climatology. This paper examines the simulated upper ocean seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific for the first 100 years. The coupled model`s seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific SSTs is in good agreement with the observations with respect to both the warm pool variation and the Central and Eastern Pacific, with significant errors (up to -2 K) only in the cold tongue around April. The cold phase cold tongue extent and strength is as observed, and for this the heat flux adjustment does not play the decisive role; corrections beyond {+-}40 Wm{sup -2} are rare and only occupy small areas, such as near coasts. A well established south Pacific convergence zone is characteristic for the new AGCM version. Apart from extending the south-east trades seasonal maximum to midbasin, windstress pattern and strength are well captured. The subsurface structure is overall consistent with the observed, with a realistically sharp thermocline at about 150 m depth in the west and rising to the surface from 160 W to 100 W.

  13. Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walna, Barbara; Kurzyca, Iwona; Bednorz, Ewa; Kolendowicz, Leszek

    2013-07-01

    A 2-year study (2010-2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2 mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52 mg/m(2)/year. In 2011, over 51% of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10 mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more than 86% of events. In 2010, a strong connection was evident between fluoride and acid-forming ions, and in 2011, a correlation between phosphate and nitrite ions was seen. Analysis of available data on F(-) concentrations in the air did not show an unequivocal effect on F(-) concentrations in precipitation. To find reasons for and source areas of high fluoride pollution, the cases of extreme fluoride concentration in rainwater were related to atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. Weather conditions on days of extreme pollution were determined by movement of weather fronts over western Poland, or by small cyclonic centers with meteorological fronts. Macroscale air advection over the sampling site originated in the western quadrant (NW, W, and SW), particularly in the middle layers of the troposphere (2,500-5,000 m a.s.l.). Such directions indicate western Poland and Germany as possible sources of the pollution. At the same time in the lower troposphere, air inflow was frequently from the north, showing short distance transport from local emitters, and from the agglomeration of Poznań.

  14. Ice core evidence for secular variability and 200-year dipolar oscillations in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delmonte, B. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Department of Geological Sciences, University of Siena (Italy); Petit, J.R.; Krinner, G. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE-CNRS), Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Maggi, V. [Department of Environmental Sciences, University Milano-Bicocca (Italy); Jouzel, J. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS, Saclay (France); Udisti, R. [Chemistry Department, University of Florence (Italy)

    2005-05-01

    Two Holocene ice core records from East Antarctica (Vostok and EPICA-Dome C) were analysed for dust concentration and size distribution at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per {proportional_to}50 years. A series of volcanic markers randomly distributed over the common part of the ice cores (from 9.8 to 3.5 kyear BP) ensures accurate relative dating ({+-}33 years). Dust-size records from the two sites display oscillations structured in cycles with sub-millennial and secular scale frequencies that are apparently asynchronous. The power spectra of the composite sum ({sigma}) of the two dust-size records display spectral energy mostly for 150- to 500-year periodicities. On the other hand, the 200-year band is common to both records and the 200 year components of the two sites are out-of-phase (100-year lead or lag) over {proportional_to}5.5 kyear, a phenomenon also reflected by a significant (>99% conf. lev.) band in the power spectra of the composite difference ({delta}) of the two size records. During long-range transport, mineral dust originating from the Southern Hemisphere continents is graded to a variable extent depending on the altitude and duration of atmospheric transport. Relatively coarse dust is associated with air mass penetration from the middle-lower troposphere and conversely relatively fine dust with upper troposphere air masses or the influence of subsidence over the Antarctic plateau, a hypothesis already proposed for the changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition (Delmonte et al. 2004b). Moreover, we assume that the overall fluctuation of air mass advection over Antarctica depends on the meridional pressure gradient with respect to low latitudes, i.e. the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We therefore suggest a regional variability in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica. The 150-500 year power spectrum of the composite ({sigma}) parameter represents the long term variability of the AAO, imprinted by secular

  15. Pulmonary Circulation Transvascular Fluid Fluxes Do Not Change during General Anesthesia in Dogs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Frlic

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available General anesthesia (GA can cause abnormal lung fluid redistribution. Pulmonary circulation transvascular fluid fluxes (JVA are attributed to changes in hydrostatic forces and erythrocyte volume (EV regulation. Despite the very low hydraulic conductance of pulmonary microvasculature it is possible that GA may affect hydrostatic forces through changes in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR, and EV through alteration of erythrocyte transmembrane ion fluxes (ionJVA. Furosemide (Fur was also used because of its potential to affect pulmonary hydrostatic forces and ionJVA. A hypothesis was tested that JVA, with or without furosemide treatment, will not change with time during GA. Twenty dogs that underwent castration/ovariectomy were randomly assigned to Fur (n = 10 (4 mg/kg IV or placebo treated group (Con, n = 10. Baseline arterial (BL and mixed venous blood were sampled during GA just before treatment with Fur or placebo and then at 15, 30 and 45 min post-treatment. Cardiac output (Q and pulmonary artery pressure (PAP were measured. JVA and ionJVA were calculated from changes in plasma protein, hemoglobin, hematocrit, plasma and whole blood ions, and Q. Variables were analyzed using random intercept mixed model (P < 0.05. Data are expressed as means ± SE. Furosemide caused a significant volume depletion as evident from changes in plasma protein and hematocrit (P < 0.001. However; Q, PAP, and JVA were not affected by time or Fur, whereas erythrocyte fluid flux was affected by Fur (P = 0.03. Furosemide also affected erythrocyte transmembrane K+ and Cl−, and transvascular Cl− metabolism (P ≤ 0.05. No other erythrocyte transmembrane or transvascular ion fluxes were affected by time of GA or Fur. Our hypothesis was verified as JVA was not affected by GA or ion metabolism changes due to Fur treatment. Furosemide and 45 min of GA did not cause significant hydrostatic changes based on Q and PAP. Inhibition of Na+/K+/2Cl− cotransport caused by Fur

  16. Application of blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part I: a novel detection scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barriopedro, D. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Ed. C-8, Lisbon (Portugal); Universidad de Extremadura, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Badajoz (Spain); Garcia-Herrera, R. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de C.C. Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Trigo, R.M. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Ed. C-8, Lisbon (Portugal)

    2010-12-15

    to General Circulation Models where observational thresholds may be unsuitable due to the presence of model bias. Part II of this study deals with a specific implementation of this novel method to simulations of the ECHO-G global climate model. (orig.)

  17. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  18. Aerosol indirect effects -- general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, Andrew; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, Allison; Feingold, Graham; Hoose, Corinna; Kristjansson, Jon Egill; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Yves; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, Paul A.; Stier, Philip; Feichter, Johann; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Seland, Oyvind; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, Hugh; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, Michael

    2009-04-10

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterizes aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (Ta) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between Ta and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. It is shown that this is partly related to the representation of the second aerosol indirect effect in terms of autoconversion. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and Ta as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld - Ta relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between Ta and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - Ta relationship show a strong positive correlation between Ta and fcld The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of Ta, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd

  19. Circulating Total Bilirubin and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunutsor, Setor K.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ronald T.; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Dullaart, Robin P. F.

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of circulating total bilirubin and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a new prospective study and to determine whether adding information on total bilirubin values to established cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of CVD

  20. Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-31

    paper aooo not violate: any Oisclosur~,;·of trade• secrets or suggestions of outside individuals on::oncams whiCh have· beE !n communicated 1.o...fully three- dimensional global ocean circulation model, we will provide an internal tide capability everywhere, and allow nested models to include

  1. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    You, Qinglong [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou (China); Aguilar, Enric [Universitat Rovirai Virgili de Tarragona, Climate Change Research Group, Geography Unit, Tarragona (Spain); Pepin, Nick [University of Portsmouth, Department of Geography, Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Fluegel, Wolfgang-Albert [Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Yan, Yuping [National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Xu, Yanwei; Huang, Jie [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Zhang, Yongjun [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China)

    2011-06-15

    negative magnitudes. This is inconsistent with changes of water vapor flux calculated from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Large scale atmospheric circulation changes derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis grids show that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation, increasing geopotential height and rapid warming over the Eurasian continent have contributed to the changes in climate extremes in China. (orig.)

  2. Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions – Part 1: Africa and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Sud

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4 General Circulation Model (GCM was employed to assess the influence of potential changes in aerosols on the regional circulation, ambient temperatures, and precipitation in four selected regions: India and Africa (current paper, as well as North and South America (companion paper. Ensemble-simulations were carried out with the GCM to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effects, hereafter ADE and AIE. Each simulation was started from the NCEP-analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through May-June-July-August of each year: 1982–1987 to provide an ensemble set of six simulations. In the first set, called experiment (#1, climatological aerosols were prescribed. The next two experiments (#2 and #3 had two sets of simulations each: one with 2X and other with 1/2X the climatological aerosols over each of the four selected regions. In experiment #2, the anomaly regions were advectively restricted (AR, i.e., the large-scale prognostic fields outside the aerosol anomaly regions were prescribed while in experiment #3, the anomaly regions were advectively Interactive (AI as is the case in a normal GCM integrations, but with the same aerosols anomalies as in experiment #2. Intercomparisons of circulation, diabatic heating, and precipitation difference fields showed large disparities among the AR and AI simulations, which raised serious questions about the proverbial AR assumption, commonly invoked in regional climate simulation studies. Consequently AI simulation mode was chosen for the subsequent studies. Two more experiments (#4 and #5 were performed in the AI mode in which ADE and AIE were activated one at a time. The results showed that ADE and AIE work in concert to make the joint influences larger than sum of each acting alone. Moreover, the ADE and AIE influences were vastly different for the Indian and Africa regions, which suggest an imperative need to include them

  3. The Hamburg large scale geostrophic ocean general circulation model. Cycle 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajewicz, U.

    1992-02-01

    The rationale for the Large Scale Geostrophic ocean circulation model (LSG-OGCM) is based on the observations that for a large scale ocean circulation model designed for climate studies, the relevant characteristic spatial scales are large compared with the internal Rossby radius throughout most of the ocean, while the characteristic time scales are large compared with the periods of gravity modes and barotropic Rossby wave modes. In the present version of the model, the fast modes have been filtered out by a conventional technique of integrating the full primitive equations, including all terms except the nonlinear advection of momentum, by an implicit time integration method. The free surface is also treated prognostically, without invoking a rigid lid approximation. The numerical scheme is unconditionally stable and has the additional advantage that it can be applied uniformly to the entire globe, including the equatorial and coastal current regions. (orig.)

  4. Aerosol indirect effects ? general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi; Takemura, Toshihiko; Wang, Minghuai; Penner, Joyce E.; Gettelman, Andrew; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bellouin, Nicolas; Boucher, Olivier; Sayer, Andrew M.; Thomas, Gareth E.; McComiskey, Allison; Feingold, Graham; Hoose, Corinna; Kristansson, Jon Egill; Liu, Xiaohong; Balkanski, Yves; Donner, Leo J.; Ginoux, Paul A.; Stier, Philip; Grandey, Benjamin; Feichter, Johann; Sednev, Igor; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy; Grainger, Roy G.; Kirkevag, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Seland, Oyvind; Easter, Richard; Ghan, Steven J.; Rasch, Philip J.; Morrison, Hugh; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Iacono, Michael J.; Kinne, Stefan; Schulz, Michael

    2010-03-12

    Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth ({tau}{sub a}) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (N{sub d}) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between {tau}{sub a} and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (f{sub cld}) and {tau}{sub a} as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong f{sub cld} - {tau}{sub a} relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between {tau}{sub a} and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - {tau}{sub a} relationship show a strong positive correlation between {tau}{sub a} and f{sub cld} The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is

  5. Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

  6. On the Linkage between Springtime Eurasian Snow Cover Retreat due to the Global Warming and Changes in Summertime Atmospheric Circulation over Japan and East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozawa, T.; Fujiwara, S.

    2017-12-01

    According to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), snow cover extent (SCE) over the northern hemisphere is greatly decreasing in spring. This change is expected to affect atmospheric circulation change via land-atmosphere interactions. In this study, we investigated relationships between spring SCE anomaly over the Eurasia and changes in atmospheric circulations, mainly analyzing the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Differences in composites of zonal winds at upper and middle levels between large and small SCE years over Western Siberia in spring show that, around Japan and East Asia, jet stream in small SCE years is shifted southward in April and June. We also analyzed surface temperature and soil moisture and find that, in small SCE years, surface temperature in Western Siberia and Central Asia is increased and soil moisture reduced significantly in June. The air temperature in the middle and low level atmosphere also significantly increased and have wave-like pattern in May. These results suggest that there are some linkages between the springtime Eurasian SCE reduction and changes in summertime jet stream over Japan and East Asia through land-atmosphere interactions.

  7. The interrelation of circulation processes in the atmosphere by B. L. Dzerdzeyevskiy with the change of runoff in the basins of rivers of South Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tursunova, Aisulu

    2017-05-01

    The article contains analysis of the interrelation of circulation processes in the atmosphere with the change of runoff in the basins of rivers. The results of estimates which show the relationship of circulation processes in the atmosphere with the runoff of the zone of formation of one of southern regions of Kazakhstan are discussed. The typification of circulation processes by B. L. Dzerdzeyevskiy and previously made estimates of water resources in the basins of rivers of South Kazakhstan were assumed as a basis. Certain areas were considered in this work: the Ile-Balkash basin, basin of rivers Shu-Talas and basin of the Syrdariya river, each basin is considered separately, since the runoff varies by regions and by the value of fluctuations, it is not permanent, because of the various factors of runoff formation in individual basins of that region. The calculations performed have shown the possibility of using typification of elementary circulation mechanism (ECM) for further researches of climatic changes, including to determine the direction of change of river runoff in other river basins. The created database on annual values of each of the 41 types of ECM can be used in other studies as well.

  8. Modulation Transfer Function of a Gaussian Beam Based on the Generalized Modified Atmospheric Spectrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Gao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the modulation transfer function of a Gaussian beam propagating through a horizontal path in weak-fluctuation non-Kolmogorov turbulence. Mathematical expressions are obtained based on the generalized modified atmospheric spectrum, which includes the spectral power law value of non-Kolmogorov turbulence, the finite inner and outer scales of turbulence, and other optical parameters of the Gaussian beam. The numerical results indicate that the atmospheric turbulence would produce less negative effects on the wireless optical communication system with an increase in the inner scale of turbulence. Additionally, the increased outer scale of turbulence makes a Gaussian beam influenced more seriously by the atmospheric turbulence.

  9. Multiyear Simulations of the Martian Water Cycle with the Ames General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, R. M.; Schaeffer, J. R.; Nelli, S. M.; Murphy, J. R.

    2003-01-01

    Mars atmosphere is carbon dioxide dominated with non-negligible amounts of water vapor and suspended dust particles. The atmospheric dust plays an important role in the heating and cooling of the planet through absorption and emission of radiation. Small dust particles can potentially be carried to great altitudes and affect the temperatures there. Water vapor condensing onto the dust grains can affect the radiative properties of both, as well as their vertical extent. The condensation of water onto a dust grain will change the grain s fall speed and diminish the possibility of dust obtaining high altitudes. In this capacity, water becomes a controlling agent with regard to the vertical distribution of dust. Similarly, the atmosphere s water vapor holding capacity is affected by the amount of dust in the atmosphere. Dust is an excellent green house catalyst; it raises the temperature of the atmosphere, and thus, its water vapor holding capacity. There is, therefore, a potentially significant interplay between the Martian dust and water cycles. Previous research done using global, 3-D computer modeling to better understand the Martian atmosphere treat the dust and the water cycles as two separate and independent processes. The existing Ames numerical model will be employed to simulate the relationship between the Martian dust and water cycles by actually coupling the two cycles. Water will condense onto the dust, allowing the particle's radiative characteristics, fall speeds, and as a result, their vertical distribution to change. Data obtained from the Viking, Mars Pathfinder, and especially the Mars Global Surveyor missions will be used to determine the accuracy of the model results.

  10. Study on the estimation of probabilistic effective dose. Committed effective dose from intake of marine products using Oceanic General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakano, Masanao

    2007-01-01

    The worldwide environmental protection is required by the public. A long-term environmental assessment from nuclear fuel cycle facilities to the aquatic environment also becomes more important to utilize nuclear energy more efficiently. Evaluation of long-term risk including not only in Japan but also in neighboring countries is considered to be necessary in order to develop nuclear power industry. The author successfully simulated the distribution of radionuclides in seawater and seabed sediment produced by atmospheric nuclear tests using LAMER (Long-term Assessment ModEl for Radioactivity in the oceans). A part of the LAMER calculated the advection- diffusion-scavenging processes for radionuclides in the oceans and the Japan Sea in cooperate with Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) and was validated. The author is challenging to calculate probabilistic effective dose suggested by ICRP from intake of marine products due to atmospheric nuclear tests using the Monte Carlo method in the other part of LAMER. Depending on the deviation of each parameter, the 95th percentile of the probabilistic effective dose was calculated about half of the 95th percentile of the deterministic effective dose in proforma calculation. The probabilistic assessment gives realistic value for the dose assessment of a nuclear fuel cycle facility. (author)

  11. Correction of Excessive Precipitation over Steep Mountains in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Winston C.

    2012-01-01

    Excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) is a well-known problem in GCMs and regional climate models even at a resolution as high as 19km. The affected regions include the Andes, the Himalayas, Sierra Madre, New Guinea and others. This problem also shows up in some data assimilation products. Among the possible causes investigated in this study, we found that the most important one, by far, is a missing upward transport of heat out of the boundary layer due to the vertical circulations forced by the daytime subgrid-scale upslope winds, which in turn is forced by heated boundary layer on the slopes. These upslope winds are associated with large subgrid-scale topographic variance, which is found over steep mountains. Without such subgrid-scale heat ventilation, the resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer generated by surface sensible heat flux along the mountain slopes is excessive. Such an excessive resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer combined with the high moisture content in the boundary layer results in excessive moisture transport toward mountaintops, which in turn gives rise to excessive precipitation over the affected regions. We have parameterized the effects of subgrid-scale heated-slope-induced vertical circulation (SHVC) by removing heat from the boundary layer and depositing it in the layers higher up when topographic variance exceeds a critical value. Test results using NASA/Goddard's GEOS-5 GCM have shown that the EPSM problem is largely solved.

  12. Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power

  13. A scheme for parameterizing ice cloud water content in general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Donner, Leo J.

    1989-01-01

    A method for specifying ice water content in GCMs is developed, based on theory and in-cloud measurements. A theoretical development of the conceptual precipitation model is given and the aircraft flights used to characterize the ice mass distribution in deep ice clouds is discussed. Ice water content values derived from the theoretical parameterization are compared with the measured values. The results demonstrate that a simple parameterization for atmospheric ice content can account for ice contents observed in several synoptic contexts.

  14. Preformed and regenerated phosphate in ocean general circulation models: can right total concentrations be wrong?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Duteil

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Phosphate distributions simulated by seven state-of-the-art biogeochemical ocean circulation models are evaluated against observations of global ocean nutrient distributions. The biogeochemical models exhibit different structural complexities, ranging from simple nutrient-restoring to multi-nutrient NPZD type models. We evaluate the simulations using the observed volume distribution of phosphate. The errors in these simulated volume class distributions are significantly larger when preformed phosphate (or regenerated phosphate rather than total phosphate is considered. Our analysis reveals that models can achieve similarly good fits to observed total phosphate distributions for a~very different partitioning into preformed and regenerated nutrient components. This has implications for the strength and potential climate sensitivity of the simulated biological carbon pump. We suggest complementing the use of total nutrient distributions for assessing model skill by an evaluation of the respective preformed and regenerated nutrient components.

  15. Correction of Excessive Precipitation Over Steep and High Mountains in a General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Winston C.

    2012-01-01

    Excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) is a well-known problem in GCMs and meso-scale models. This problem impairs simulation and data assimilation products. Among the possible causes investigated in this study, we found that the most important one, by far, is a missing upward transport of heat out of the boundary layer due to the vertical circulations forced by the daytime upslope winds, which are forced by the heated boundary layer on subgrid-scale slopes. These upslope winds are associated with large subgrid-scale topographic variation, which is found over steep and high mountains. Without such subgridscale heat ventilation, the resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer generated by surface sensible heat flux along the mountain slopes is excessive. Such an excessive resolvablescale upslope flow combined with the high moisture content in the boundary layer results in excessive moisture transport toward mountaintops, which in turn gives rise to EPSM. Other possible causes of EPSM that we have investigated include 1) a poorly-designed horizontal moisture flux in the terrain-following coordinates, 2) the condition for cumulus convection being too easily satisfied at mountaintops, 3) the presence of conditional instability of the computational kind, and 4) the absence of blocked flow drag. These are all minor or inconsequential. We have parameterized the ventilation effects of the subgrid-scale heated-slope-induced vertical circulation (SHVC) by removing heat from the boundary layer and depositing it in layers higher up when the topographic variance exceeds a critical value. Test results using NASA/Goddard's GEOS-S GCM have shown that this largely solved the EPSM problem.

  16. Effect of general anaesthesia on functional outcome in patients with anterior circulation ischaemic stroke having endovascular thrombectomy versus standard care: a meta-analysis of individual patient data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campbell, Bruce C. V.; van Zwam, Wim H.; Goyal, Mayank; Menon, Bijoy K.; Dippel, Diederik W. J.; Demchuk, Andrew M.; Bracard, Serge; White, Philip; Dávalos, Antoni; Majoie, Charles B. L. M.; van der Lugt, Aad; Ford, Gary A.; de la Ossa, Natalia Pérez; Kelly, Michael; Bourcier, Romain; Donnan, Geoffrey A.; Roos, Yvo B. W. E. M.; Bang, Oh Young; Nogueira, Raul G.; Devlin, Thomas G.; van den Berg, Lucie A.; Clarençon, Frédéric; Burns, Paul; Carpenter, Jeffrey; Berkhemer, Olvert A.; Yavagal, Dileep R.; Pereira, Vitor Mendes; Ducrocq, Xavier; Dixit, Anand; Quesada, Helena; Epstein, Jonathan; Davis, Stephen M.; Jansen, Olav; Rubiera, Marta; Urra, Xabier; Nederkoorn, Paul J.; Emmer, Bart J.; Bot, Joseph C. J.; Marquering, Henk A.; Sprengers, Marieke E. S.; Beenen, Ludo F. M.; van den Berg, René; Fleitour, Nadine; Santos, Emilie; Borst, Jordi; Jansen, Ivo; Kappelhof, Manon; Lucas, Marit; Barros, Renan Sales; Koch, S.

    2018-01-01

    Background General anaesthesia (GA) during endovascular thrombectomy has been associated with worse patient outcomes in observational studies compared with patients treated without GA. We assessed functional outcome in ischaemic stroke patients with large vessel anterior circulation occlusion

  17. Long-term trend in ground-based air temperature and its responses to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity in the Yangtze River Delta, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xia; She, Qiannan; Long, Lingbo; Liu, Min; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Jiaxin; Xiang, Weining

    2017-10-01

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), including Shanghai City, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, is the largest metropolitan region in China. In the past decades, the region has experienced massive urbanization and detrimentally affected the environment in the region. Identifying the spatio-temporal variations of climate change and its influencing mechanism in the YRD is an important task for assessing their impacts on the local society and ecosystem. Based on long-term (1958-2014) observation data of meteorological stations, three temperature indices, i.e. extreme maximum temperature (TXx), extreme minimum temperature (TNn), and mean temperature (TMm), were selected and spatialized with climatological calculations and spatial techniques. Evolution and spatial heterogeneity of three temperature indices over YRD as well as their links to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity were investigated. In the whole YRD, a statistically significant overall uptrend could be detected in three temperature indices with the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method. The linear increasing trend for TMm was 0.31 °C/10 a, which was higher than the global average (0.12 °C/10 a during 1951-2012). For TXx and TNn, the increasing rates were 0.41 °C/10 a and 0.52 °C/10 a. Partial correlation analysis indicated that TMm was more related with TXx (rp = 0.68, p < 0.001) than TNn (rp = 0.48, p < 0.001). Furthermore, it was detected with M-K analysis at pixel scale that 62.17%, 96.75% and 97.05% of the areas in the YRD showed significant increasing trends for TXx, TNn and TMm, respectively. The increasing trend was more obvious in the southern mountainous areas than the northern plains areas. Further analysis indicated that the variation of TXx over YRD was mainly influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. economic development), while TNn was more affected by atmospheric circulations (e.g., the Eurasian zonal circulation index (EAZ) and the cold air activity index (CA)). For TMm, it was a

  18. Performance evaluation of generalized M-modeled atmospheric optical communications links

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lopez-Gonzalez, Francisco J.; Garrido-Balsellss, José María; Jurado-Navas, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    , the behavior of the atmospheric optical channel is treated as a superposition of a finite number of Generalized-K distributed sub-channels, controlled by a discrete Negative-Binomial distribution dependent on the turbulence parameters. Unlike other studies, here, the closed-form mathematical expressions...

  19. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Collins, Mat; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Kahana, Ron; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2018-04-01

    We look at changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a high-resolution eddy-permitting climate model experiment in which the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) is switched off using freshwater hosing. The ENSO mode is shifted eastward and its period becomes longer and more regular when the AMOC is off. The eastward shift can be attributed to an anomalous eastern Ekman transport in the mean equatorial Pacific ocean state. Convergence of this transport deepens the thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the temperature anomaly relaxation time, causing increased ENSO period. The anomalous Ekman transport is caused by a surface northerly wind anomaly in response to the meridional sea surface temperature dipole that results from switching the AMOC off. In contrast to a previous study with an earlier version of the model, which showed an increase in ENSO amplitude in an AMOC off experiment, here the amplitude remains the same as in the AMOC on control state. We attribute this difference to variations in the response of decreased stochastic forcing in the different models, which competes with the reduced damping of temperature anomalies. In the new high-resolution model, these effects approximately cancel resulting in no change in amplitude.

  20. Modeling of clouds and radiation for development of parameterizations for general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, D.; Toon, B.; Jensen, E.; Kinne, S.; Ackerman, A.; Bergstrom, R.; Walker, A.

    1994-01-01

    Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program research at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) includes radiative transfer modeling, cirrus cloud microphysics, and stratus cloud modeling. These efforts are designed to provide the basis for improving cloud and radiation parameterizations in our main effort: mesoscale cloud modeling. The range of non-convective cloud models used by the ARM modeling community can be crudely categorized based on the number of predicted hydrometers such as cloud water, ice water, rain, snow, graupel, etc. The simplest model has no predicted hydrometers and diagnoses the presence of clouds based on the predicted relative humidity. The vast majority of cloud models have two or more predictive bulk hydrometers and are termed either bulk water (BW) or size-resolving (SR) schemes. This study compares the various cloud models within the same dynamical framework, and compares results with observations rather than climate statistics

  1. Modelling atmospheric circulations for the study of Alpine valleys pollution; Modelisation des circulations atmospheriques pour l'etude de la pollution des vallees alpines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brulfert, G

    2004-11-15

    Local weather phenomena observed in alpine valleys frequently lead to the accumulation of emitted anthropogenic airborne species in the low layers of the atmosphere. The development of a numerical model allows reproducing the chemical evolution of air mass during POVA intensive period of observations. In Chamonix and Maurienne valley, computations of photochemical indicators (NO{sub y}, O{sub 3}/NO{sub z}, H{sub 2}O{sub 2}/HNO{sub 3}) prove the ozone regime to be control by volatile organic compounds. Moreover simulation highlighted that the major part of this secondary pollutant is regionally produced. The development of an indicator who localised ozone production sites can help to define abatement scenarios. The chemical mechanism RACM allows describing the evolution of many species. It is possible to conclude that in winter road traffic and heating are the main sources of volatile organic compounds. (author)

  2. Modelling atmospheric circulations for the study of Alpine valleys pollution; Modelisation des circulations atmospheriques pour l'etude de la pollution des vallees alpines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brulfert, G.

    2004-11-15

    Local weather phenomena observed in alpine valleys frequently lead to the accumulation of emitted anthropogenic airborne species in the low layers of the atmosphere. The development of a numerical model allows reproducing the chemical evolution of air mass during POVA intensive period of observations. In Chamonix and Maurienne valley, computations of photochemical indicators (NO{sub y}, O{sub 3}/NO{sub z}, H{sub 2}O{sub 2}/HNO{sub 3}) prove the ozone regime to be control by volatile organic compounds. Moreover simulation highlighted that the major part of this secondary pollutant is regionally produced. The development of an indicator who localised ozone production sites can help to define abatement scenarios. The chemical mechanism RACM allows describing the evolution of many species. It is possible to conclude that in winter road traffic and heating are the main sources of volatile organic compounds. (author)

  3. Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolf, Eric T.; Toon, Owen B.; Shields, Aomawa L.; Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Haqq-Misra, Jacob

    2017-01-01

    Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO 2 , under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures ( T s ); snowball ( T s ≤ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≤ T s ≤ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≤ T s ≤ 315 K), and moist greenhouse ( T s ≥ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having T s ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO 2 , habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

  4. Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolf, Eric T.; Toon, Owen B. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Shields, Aomawa L. [University of California, Irvine, Department of Physics and Astronomy, 4129 Frederick Reines Hall, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States); Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Haqq-Misra, Jacob, E-mail: eric.wolf@colorado.edu [NASA Astrobiology Institute' s Virtual Planetary Laboratory, P.O. Box 351580, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States)

    2017-03-10

    Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO{sub 2}, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures ( T {sub s}); snowball ( T {sub s} ≤ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≤ T {sub s} ≤ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≤ T {sub s} ≤ 315 K), and moist greenhouse ( T {sub s} ≥ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having T {sub s} ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO{sub 2}, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

  5. Explaining the mechanisms through which regional atmospheric circulation variability drives summer temperatures and glacial melt in western High Mountain Asia (HMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Li, Xiaofeng; Pritchard, David

    2017-04-01

    Comprehension of mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation influences sub-regional temperature and water resources variability in high-elevation mountainous catchments is of great scientific urgency due to the dependency of large downstream populations on the river flows these basins provide. In this work we quantify a regional atmospheric pattern, the Karakoram Zonal Shear (KZS), with a very pronounced annual cycle which we standardise into a dimensionless (seasonal) circulation metric the Karakoram Zonal Index (KZI). Going beyond previous regional circulation metrics such as the "middle-upper tropospheric temperature index" (MUTTI) or the Webster and Yang Monsoonal Index (WYMI) which have focused solely on the South Asian Summer Monsoon (June to September) season, the KZS/KZI provides an indicator which captures the influence and interactions of the westerly jet throughout the entire annual cycle. Use of the KZS and KZI have led us to identify a further regional atmospheric system, the Karakoram Vortex, which propagates "warm high" (anticyclonic postitive temperature anomaly) and "cold low" (cyclonic negative temperature anomaly) patterns across a very broad swath of Central and South Asia in winter but over a much more constrained area of western HMA in summer. The KV exerts this temperature influence through a combination of adiabatic effects and large-scale advection. Quantify KV influence, the KZI shows strong and statistically significantly near surface (2m) air temperatures both across western HMA both as observed through local meteorological stations and as estimated by an ensemble of global meteorological reanalyses. We show that this strong influence on temperature translates to important consequences for meltwater generation from highly glaciated Indus river tributaries which is logical given that previous studies have established the role of air temperature in modulating glacially-derived river flows in western HMA. By improving the understanding of

  6. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Genio, A. D. Del; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K.; Clune, T. L.

    2017-01-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  7. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; hide

    2017-01-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth's, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  8. Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Genio, A. D. Del; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 (United States); Clune, T. L. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

  9. Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feba, F.; Ashok, K.; Ravichandran, M.

    2018-04-01

    We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR.

  10. Application of blocking diagnosis methods to general circulation models. Part II: model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barriopedro, D.; Trigo, R.M. [Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL-IDL, Faculdade de Ciencias, Lisbon (Portugal); Garcia-Herrera, R.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra II, Facultad de C.C. Fisicas, Madrid (Spain)

    2010-12-15

    A previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950-1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous methodologies, critical parameters and thresholds to estimate blocking occurrence in the model are not calibrated with an observed reference, but objectively derived from the simulated climatology. The choice of model dependent parameters allows for an objective definition of blocking and corrects for some intrinsic model bias, the difference between model and observed thresholds providing a measure of systematic errors in the model. The model captures reasonably the main blocking features (location, amplitude, annual cycle and persistence) found in observations, but reveals a relative southward shift of Eurasian blocks and an overall underestimation of blocking activity, especially over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Blocking underestimation mostly arises from the model inability to generate long persistent blocks with the observed frequency. This error is mainly attributed to a bias in the basic state. The bias pattern consists of excessive zonal winds over the Euro-Atlantic sector and a southward shift at the exit zone of the jet stream extending into in the Eurasian continent, that are more prominent in cold and warm seasons and account for much of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian blocking errors, respectively. It is shown that other widely used blocking indices or empirical observational thresholds may not give a proper account of the lack of realism in the model as compared with the proposed method. This suggests that in addition to blocking changes that could be ascribed to natural variability processes or climate change signals in the simulated climate, attention should be paid to significant departures in the diagnosis of phenomena that can also arise from an inappropriate adaptation of detection methods to the climate of the

  11. Analysis of a general circulation model product. I - Frontal systems in the Brazil/Malvinas and Kuroshio/Oyashio regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzoli, Silvia L.; Garraffo, Zulema; Podesta, Guillermo; Brown, Otis

    1992-01-01

    The general circulation model (GCM) of Semtner and Chervin (1992) is tested by comparing the fields produced by this model with available observations in two western boundary current regions, the Brazil/Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluences. The two sets of data used are the sea surface temperature from satellite observations and the temperature field product from the GCM at levels 1 (12.5 m), 2 (37.5 m), and 6 (160 m). It is shown that the model reproduces intense thermal fronts at the sea surface and in the upper layers (where they are induced by the internal dynamics of the model). The location of the fronts are reproduced in the model within 4 to 5 deg, compared with observations. However, the variability of these fronts was found to be less pronounced in the model than in the observations.

  12. [Respiratory symptoms and atmospheric pollution and respiratory symptoms in the general population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, I; Charpin, D

    2010-06-01

    Epidemiological studies on air pollution have mainly been interested in the effects of short- or long-term exposure on patients suffering from respiratory illnesses. Fewer studies have addressed the acute effects of air pollution on respiratory symptoms in the general population. We conducted a review of the literature over the last 16years that has addressed the impact of atmospheric pollution on respiratory symptoms in the general population to estimate the magnitude of effect. The majority of studies demonstrated a significant association between exposure to air pollutants and the occurrence of respiratory symptoms, without any threshold. Although a link between atmospheric pollution and respiratory symptoms has been demonstrated, knowledge of the effects of specific air pollutants and the effect of pollution on particular vulnerable groups (infants, young children, the elderly) is still limited. There is a need for further studies in this area. Copyright 2010 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, AND CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orbita Roswintiarti

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the quantitative estimates of the effect of large-scale circulations on the sea surface temperature (SST-tropical convection relationship and the effect of SST on the large-scale circulation-convection relationship over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans are presented. Although convection tends to maximize at warm SSTs, increased deep convection is also determined by the divergence (DIV associated with large-scale circulation. An analysis of the relationship between SST and deep convection shows that under subsidence and clear conditions, there is a decrease in convection or increase in Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR at a maximum rate of 3.4 Wm-2 °C-1. In the SST range of 25°C to 29.5°C, a large increase in deep convection (decrease in OLR occurs in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The OLR reduction is found to be a strong function of the large-scale circulation in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Under a weak large-scale circulation, the rate of OLR reduction is about    -3.5 Wm-2 °C-1 to -8.1 Wm-2 °C-1. Under the influence of strong rising motions, the rate can increase to about -12.5 Wm-2 °C-1 for the same SST range. The overall relationship between large-scale circulation and deep convection is nearly linear. A maximum rate of OLR reduction with respect to DIV is -6.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1 in the western Pacific Ocean. It is also found that the DIV-OLR relationship is less dependent on SST. For example, the rate of OLR reduction over the western Pacific Ocean for 26°C < SST £ 27°C is -4.2 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1, while that for 28°C < SST £ 29°C is  -5.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1. These results are expected to have a great importance for climate feedback mechanisms associated with clouds and SST and for climate predictability.

  14. Quantification of climatic feedbacks on the Caspian Sea level variability and impacts from the Caspian Sea on the large-scale atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arpe, Klaus; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Liu, Xin-Yu; Leroy, Suzanne A. G.

    2018-05-01

    With a fall of the Caspian Sea level (CSL), its size gets smaller and therefore the total evaporation over the sea is reduced. With a reduced evaporation from the sea, the fall of the CSL is weakened. This creates a negative feedback as less evaporation leads to less water losses of the Caspian Sea (CS). On the other hand, less evaporation reduces the water in the atmosphere, which may lead to less precipitation in the catchment area of the CS. The two opposite feedbacks are estimated by using an atmospheric climate model coupled with an ocean model only for the CS with different CS sizes while keeping all other forcings like oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and leaf area index the same from a global climate simulation. The investigation is concentrated on the medieval period because at that time the CSL changed dramatically from about - 30 to - 19 m below the mean ocean sea level, partly man-made. Models used for simulating the last millennium are not able to change the size of the CS dynamically so far. When results from such simulations are used to investigate the CSL variability and its causes, the present study should help to parameterize its feedbacks. A first assumption that the total evaporation from the CS will vary with the size of the CS (number of grid points representing the sea) is generally confirmed with the model simulations. The decrease of grid points from 15 to 14, 10, 8 or 7 leads to a decrease of evaporation to 96, 77, 70 and 54%. The lower decrease than initially expected from the number of grid points (93, 67, 53 and 47%) is probably due to the fact that there would also be some evaporation at grid points that run dry with a lower CSL but a cooling of the CS SST with increasing CS size in summer may be more important. The reduction of evaporation over the CS means more water for the budget of the whole catchment of the CS (an increase of the CSL) but from the gain through reduced evaporation over the CS, only 70% is found to remain in

  15. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in the ECHAM3 general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.

    1994-01-01

    First we consider the GCM's capability to reproduce the midlatitude variability on intra-seasonal time scales by a comparison with observational data (ECMWF analyses). Secondly we assess the possible influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the intra-seasonal variability by comparing estimates obtained from different simulations performed with ECHAM3 with varying and fixed SST as boundary forcing. The intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is underestimated over most of the Northern Hemisphere. While the contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations are reasonably well captured by the model, ECHAM3 fails to reproduce the observed level of low-frequency intra-seasonal variability. This is mainly due to the underestimation of the variability caused by the ultra-long planetary waves in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes by the model. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, on the other hand, the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is generally underestimated in the area north of about 50 southern latitude, but overestimated at higher latitudes. This is the case for the contributions of the high-frequency and the low-frequency transient fluctuations as well. Further, the model indicates a strong tendency for zonal symmetry, in particular with respect to the high-frequency transient fluctuations. While the two sets of simulations with varying and fixed Sea Surface Temepratures as boundary forcing reveal only small regional differences in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strong response to be found in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations to the intra-seasonal variability are generally stronger in the simulations with fixed SST. Further, the Pacific storm track is shifted slightly poleward in this set of simulations. For the low-frequency intra-seasonal variability the model gives a strong, but regional response to the interannual variations of the SST. (orig.)

  16. Atmospheric weighting functions and surface partial derivatives for remote sensing of scattering planetary atmospheres in thermal spectral region: general adjoint approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustinov, Eugene A.

    2005-01-01

    An approach to formulation of inversion algorithms for remote sensing in the thermal spectral region in the case of a scattering planetary atmosphere, based on the adjoint equation of radiative transfer (Ustinov (JQSRT 68 (2001) 195; JQSRT 73 (2002) 29); referred to as Papers 1 and 2, respectively, in the main text), is applied to the general case of retrievals of atmospheric and surface parameters for the scattering atmosphere with nadir viewing geometry. Analytic expressions for corresponding weighting functions for atmospheric parameters and partial derivatives for surface parameters are derived. The case of pure atmospheric absorption with a scattering underlying surface is considered and convergence to results obtained for the non-scattering atmospheres (Ustinov (JQSRT 74 (2002) 683), referred to as Paper 3 in the main text) is demonstrated

  17. Dominant Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Systems for the Extreme Precipitation over the Western Sichuan Basin in Summer 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamin Hu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The western Sichuan Basin (WSB is a rainstorm center influenced by complicated factors such as topography and circulation. Based on multivariable empirical orthogonal function technique for extreme precipitation processes (EPP in WSB in 2013, this study reveals the dominant circulation patterns. Results indicate that the leading modes are characterized by “Saddle” and “Sandwich” structures, respectively. In one mode, a TC from the South China Sea (SCS converts into the inverted trough and steers warm moist airflow northward into the WSB. At the same time, WPSH extends westward over the Yangtze River and conveys a southeasterly warm humid flow. In the other case, WPSH is pushed westward by TC in the Western Pacific and then merges with an anomalous anticyclone over SCS. The anomalous anticyclone and WPSH form a conjunction belt and convey the warm moist southwesterly airflow to meet with the cold flow over the WSB. The configurations of WPSH and TC in the tropic and the blocking and trough in the midhigh latitudes play important roles during the EPPs over the WSB. The persistence of EPPs depends on the long-lived large-scale circulation configuration steady over the suitable positions.

  18. Airborne heavy metals in two cities of North Rhine Westphalia - Performing inhalation cancer risk assessment in terms of atmospheric circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitriou, Konstantinos; Kassomenos, Pavlos

    2017-11-01

    The main objective of this study was to examine the levels of four heavy metals (As, Cd, Pb and Ni) in PM 10 samples collected in two urban background stations in Dortmund and Bielefeld, in relation to atmospheric circulation. Pollution roses, Conditional Probability Function (CPF) roses and backward air mass trajectory clusters were used to identify air currents associated with the importation of PM 10 and of the included metal constituents. In addition, PM 10 , NO 2 , SO 2 , O 3 , As, Cd, Ni and Pb concentrations were analyzed by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reveal major local emission sources of PM 10 metal content. Traffic was the main emitter of PM 10 , As, Cd, and Pb in both cities, highlighting the existence of non-negligible lead quantities in unleaded gasoline, whilst nickel emissions were associated with heavy fuel oil combustion in industries and primarily for domestic heating. The created CPF roses and trajectory clusters were in good agreement, clearly revealing that eastern air currents enriched the locally produced PM 10 load with additional aerosols from Eastern Europe. The concentrations of arsenic and cadmium were also enhanced by the arrival of air parcels from the East, indicating the anthropogenic origin of the exogenous aerosols due to combustion. The induced cancer risk (CR inh ) for adults, due to inhalation of individual metal constituents, was also estimated in terms of atmospheric circulation, indicating higher risk in Dortmund than in Bielefeld. CR inh values for arsenic exceeded the limit of 1 × 10 -6 in both cities, primarily during the influence of eastern circulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are

  20. IL-33 circulating serum levels are increased in patients with non-segmental generalized vitiligo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaccaro, Mario; Cicero, Francesca; Mannucci, Carmen; Calapai, Gioacchino; Spatari, Giovanna; Barbuzza, Olga; Cannavò, Serafinella P; Gangemi, Sebastiano

    2016-09-01

    IL-33 is a recently identified cytokine, encoded by the IL-33 gene, which is a member of the IL-1 family that drives the production of T-helper-2 (Th-2)-associated cytokines. Serum levels of IL-33 have been reported to be up-regulated in various T-helper (Th)-1/Th-17-mediated diseases, such as psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and inflammatory bowel. To investigate whether cytokine imbalance plays a role in the pathogenesis of vitiligo, we performed a case-control association study by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay of IL-33 in our patients. IL-33 serum levels were measured by a quantitative enzyme immunoassay technique in patients with non-segmental generalized vitiligo and compared with those of healthy controls. IL-33 serum levels in patients with vitiligo were significantly increased than those in healthy controls. There was a positive correlation of IL-33 serum levels with extension of vitiligo and disease activity. This study suggests a possible systemic role of IL-33 in the pathogenesis of vitiligo. Inhibiting IL-33 activity might be a novel therapeutic strategy in the treatment of autoimmune inflammatory disease, like vitiligo.

  1. A General Model of the Atmospheric Scattering in the Wavelength Interval 300 - 1100nm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Dimitrov

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We have presented and developed new theoretic-empirical models of the extinction coefficients of the molecular scattering in the lower, close to the ground troposphere. We have included the indicatrices of backscattering. The models have been presented using general analytical functions valid for the whole wavelength interval 300-1100 nm and for the whole interval of visibility from 0.1 km up to 50 km. The results have been compared in quantity with the model and experimental data of other authors. The modeling of troposphere scattering is necessary for the analysis and design of all optoelectronic free space systems: atmospheric optical communication systems, location systems for atmospheric research (LIDAR, optical radiometric systems.

  2. Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 2. Winter circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Fengchao; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Pratt, Larry J.; Bower, Amy S.; Köhl, Armin; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Rivas, David

    2014-04-01

    The shallow winter overturning circulation in the Red Sea is studied using a 50 year high-resolution MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) simulation with realistic atmospheric forcing. The overturning circulation for a typical year, represented by 1980, and the climatological mean are analyzed using model output to delineate the three-dimensional structure and to investigate the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The horizontal model circulation in the winter of 1980 is dominated by energetic eddies. The climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24°N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model's winter overturning circulation. The simulated water exchange is not hydraulically controlled in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb; instead, the exchange is limited by bottom and lateral boundary friction and, to a lesser extent, by interfacial friction due to the vertical viscosity at the interface between the inflow and the outflow.

  3. Novel formulation of the ℳ model through the Generalized-K distribution for atmospheric optical channels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrido-Balsells, José María; Jurado-Navas, Antonio; Paris, José Francisco; Castillo-Vazquez, Miguel; Puerta-Notario, Antonio

    2015-03-09

    In this paper, a novel and deeper physical interpretation on the recently published Málaga or ℳ statistical distribution is provided. This distribution, which is having a wide acceptance by the scientific community, models the optical irradiance scintillation induced by the atmospheric turbulence. Here, the analytical expressions previously published are modified in order to express them by a mixture of the known Generalized-K and discrete Binomial and Negative Binomial distributions. In particular, the probability density function (pdf) of the ℳ model is now obtained as a linear combination of these Generalized-K pdf, in which the coefficients depend directly on the parameters of the ℳ distribution. In this way, the Málaga model can be physically interpreted as a superposition of different optical sub-channels each of them described by the corresponding Generalized-K fading model and weighted by the ℳ dependent coefficients. The expressions here proposed are simpler than the equations of the original ℳ model and are validated by means of numerical simulations by generating ℳ -distributed random sequences and their associated histogram. This novel interpretation of the Málaga statistical distribution provides a valuable tool for analyzing the performance of atmospheric optical channels for every turbulence condition.

  4. The horizontally homogeneous model equations of incompressible atmospheric flow in general orthogonal coordinates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Bo Hoffmann

    2003-01-01

    The goal of this brief report is to express the model equations for an incompressible flow which is horizontally homogeneous. It is intended as a computationally inexpensive starting point of a more complete solution for neutral atmospheric flow overcomplex terrain. This idea was set forth...... by Ayotte and Taylor (1995) and in the work of Beljaars et al. (1987). Unlike the previous models, the present work uses general orthogonal coordinates. Strong conservation form of the model equations is employedto allow a robust and consistent numerical procedure. An invariant tensor form of the model...

  5. Beam wandering statistics of twin thin laser beam propagation under generalized atmospheric conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Darío G; Funes, Gustavo

    2012-12-03

    Under the Geometrics Optics approximation is possible to estimate the covariance between the displacements of two thin beams after they have propagated through a turbulent medium. Previous works have concentrated in long propagation distances to provide models for the wandering statistics. These models are useful when the separation between beams is smaller than the propagation path-regardless of the characteristics scales of the turbulence. In this work we give a complete model for these covariances, behavior introducing absolute limits to the validity of former approximations. Moreover, these generalizations are established for non-Kolmogorov atmospheric models.

  6. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC. The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

  7. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Camille; Michel, Clio; Seland Graff, Lise; Bethke, Ingo; Zappa, Giuseppe; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Fischer, Erich; Harvey, Ben J.; Iversen, Trond; King, Martin P.; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mitchell, Daniel; Scinocca, John; Shiogama, Hideo; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wettstein, Justin J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

  8. A study of longwave radiation codes for climate studies: Validation with ARM observations and tests in general circulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingson, R.G.; Baer, F.

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the activities of our group to meet our stated objectives. The report is divided into sections entitled: Radiation Model Testing Activities, General Circulation Model Testing Activities, Science Team Activities, and Publications, Presentations and Meetings. The section on Science Team Activities summarizes our participation with the science team to further advance the observation and modeling programs. Appendix A lists graduate students supported, and post-doctoral appointments during the project. Reports on the activities during each of the first two years are included as Appendix B. Significant progress has been made in: determining the ability of line-by-line radiation models to calculate the downward longwave flux at the surface; determining the uncertainties in calculated the downwelling radiance and flux at the surface associated with the use of different proposed profiling techniques; intercomparing clear-sky radiance and flux observations with calculations from radiation codes from different climate models; determining the uncertainties associated with estimating N* from surface longwave flux observations; and determining the sensitivity of model calculations to different formulations of the effects of finite sized clouds

  9. Analysis of a general circulation model. II - Distribution of kinetic energy in the South Atlantic and Kuroshio/Oyashio systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garraffo, Zulema; Garzoli, Silvia L.; Haxby, William; Olson, Donald

    1992-01-01

    It was found (Garzoli et al., 1992) that the general circulation model of Semtner and Chervin (1992) provides accurate descriptions of the Brazil-Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluence systems, except for the fact that the model prediction shows less variability than that present in observations. This paper investigates the problem of model variability by analyzing the mean and the eddy kinetic energy from the model and comparing the values with the Geosat altimeter observations for the South Atlantic Ocean and for the Kuroshio system. It is found that, while the model shows transient eddy activity in the areas that overlap the Geosat observations, the energy level of the model transient motions is considerably smaller following an arch along the bottom topography. The same was found from the comparisons made with values obtained from FGGE and surface drifters. It is suggested that the model is poorly resolving instabilities in the confluence front, and is not resolving other transients appearing in regions of marked topography.

  10. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab

    2016-08-26

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference of the uncertain parameters is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme that utilizes a newly formulated test statistic taking into account the different components representing the structures of turbulent mixing on both daily and seasonal time scales in addition to the data quality, and filters for the effects of parameter perturbations over those as a result of changes in the wind. To avoid the prohibitive computational cost of integrating the MITgcm model at each MCMC iteration, a surrogate model for the test statistic using the PC method is built. Because of the noise in the model predictions, a basis-pursuit-denoising (BPDN) compressed sensing approach is employed to determine the PC coefficients of a representative surrogate model. The PC surrogate is then used to evaluate the test statistic in the MCMC step for sampling the posterior of the uncertain parameters. Results of the posteriors indicate good agreement with the default values for two parameters of the KPP model, namely the critical bulk and gradient Richardson numbers; while the posteriors of the remaining parameters were barely informative. © 2016 American Meteorological Society.

  11. The influence of cirrus cloud-radiative forcing on climate and climate sensitivity in a general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

    1994-01-01

    Six numerical experiments have been performed with a general circulation model (GCM) to study the influence of high-level cirrus clouds and global sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations on climate and climate sensitivity. The GCM used in this investigation is the third-generation ECHAM3 model developed jointly by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hamburg. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce many features of the observed cloud-radiative forcing with considerable skill, such as the annual mean distribution, the response to seasonal forcing and the response to observed SST variations in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to a reference experiment where the cirrus emissivity is computed as a function of the cloud water content, two sensitivity experiments have been performed in which the cirrus emissivity is either set to zero everywhere above 400 hPa ('transparent cirrus') or set to one ('black cirrus'). These three experiments are repeated identically, except for prescribing a globally uniform SST warming of 4 K. (orig.)

  12. Simulation of stationary and transient geopotential-height eddies in January and July with a spectral general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malone, R.C.; Pitcher, E.J.; Blackmon, M.L.; Puri, K.; Bourke, W.

    1984-01-01

    We examine the characteristics of stationary and transient eddies in the geopotential-height field as simulated by a spectral general circulation model. The model possessess a realistic, but smootheed, topography. Two simulations with perpetual January and July forcing by climatological sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and insolation were extended to 1200 days, of which the final 600 days were used for the results in this study. We find that the stationary waves are well simulated in both seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, where strong forcing by orography and land-sea thermal contrast exists. However, in the Southern Hemisphere, where no continents are present in midlatitudes, the stationary waves have smaller amplitude than that observed in both seasons. In both hemispheres, the transient eddies are well simulated in the winter season but are too weak in the summer season. The model fails to generate a sufficiently intense summertime midlatitude jet in either hemisphere, and this results in a low level of transient activity. The variance in the tropical troposphere is very well simulated. We examine the geographical distribution and vertical structure of the transient eddies. Fourier analysis in zonal wavenumber and temporal filtering are used to display the wavelength and frequency characteristics of the eddies

  13. Regional drought shifts (1710-2010) in East Central Asia and linkages with atmospheric circulation recorded in tree-ring δ18O

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guobao; Liu, Xiaohong; Trouet, Valerie; Treydte, Kerstin; Wu, Guoju; Chen, Tuo; Sun, Weizhen; An, Wenling; Wang, Wenzhi; Zeng, Xiaomin; Qin, Dahe

    2018-04-01

    Drought occurrence and duration in central Asia are of important socioeconomic, ecological, and geophysical significance and have received increasing research attention in recent years. Understanding long-term drought trends and their driving forces require reliable records of past drought variability with broad spatial representativeness. Here, we compiled four tree-ring δ18O records from eastern central Asia (ECA) and composited them into a drought-sensitive proxy to explore regional ECA moisture variations over the past 301 years (1710-2010 CE). A robust regional standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) reconstruction was established based on the tree-ring cellulose δ18O fractionation mechanism and statistically significant proxy-climate relationships. We identified prominent droughts in 1710-1770, 1810-1830, and the beginning of the twenty-first century, and a regime shift to a persistently wet period from the 1880s to 2000. Our reconstruction reveals the impact of drought and pluvial patterns on the decline of Zhungar Empire, and on historical agricultural and socio-economical activities, including increased migration into ECA during the 1770-1800 pluvial. Our findings also suggest that wet conditions in the twentieth century in ECA were related to a strengthening of the westerly circulation and thus shed light on large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics in central Asia.

  14. Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Botao; Xu, Ying; Shi, Ying

    2018-01-01

    The summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO), one of the major modes of climate variability over the Asian-Pacific sector, has a pronounced effect on variations of large-scale atmospheric circulations and climate. This study evaluated the capability of 30 state-of-the-art climate models among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating its association with the atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region and the precipitation over East Asia. Furthermore, their future connections under the RCP8.5 scenario were examined. The evaluation results show that 5 out of 30 climate models can well capture the observed APO-related features in a comprehensive way, including the strengthened South Asian high (SAH), deepened North Pacific trough (NPT) and northward East Asian jet (EAJ) in the upper troposphere; an intensification of the Asian low and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) as well as a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere; and a decrease in East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) under the positive APO phase. Based on the five CMIP5 models' simulations, the dynamic linkages of the APO to the SAH, NPT, AL, and NPSH are projected to maintain during the second half of the twenty-first century. However, its connection with the EASR tends to reduce significantly. Such a reduction might result from the weakening of the linkage of the APO to the meridional displacement of the EAJ and WPSH as a response to the warming scenario.

  15. Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2018-04-01

    Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

  16. Spectrum Analysis of Inertial and Subinertial Motions Based on Analyzed Winds and Wind-Driven Currents from a Primitive Equation General Ocean Circulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-12-01

    1Muter.Te Motions Based on Ana lyzed Winds and wind-driven December 1982 Currents from. a Primitive Squat ion General a.OW -love"*..* Oean Circulation...mew se"$ (comeS.... do oISN..u am ae~ 00do OWaor NUN Fourier and Rotary Spc , Analysis Modeled Inertial and Subinrtial Motion 4 Primitive Equation

  17. The stability of CaS in circulating fluidized bed boiler residue and the possible release of H2S gas to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattisson, T.; Lyngfelt, A.

    1995-01-01

    During the combustion of coal, SO 2 is released to the atmosphere. Because of environmental concerns with acid rain, the capture of SO 2 is an important issue. In fluidized bed combustion SO 2 is captured in-situ by limestone or dolomite to form CaSO 4 . This product is stable and can be disposed of or reused as gypsum. In order to capture the sulphur as CaSO 4 oxidizing conditions are necessary. In a fluidized bed boiler (FBB) CaS may form in regions with reducing conditions, and FBB ashes sampled under irregular operating conditions may contain as much as 50 % of the captured sulphur as CaS. The stability of CaS in a landfill environment is thus very important. It is possible that the sulphide decomposes in the presence of moisture or runoff leachate with the subsequent release of H 2 S gas. This re-release of captured sulphur could have a substantial effect on the overall sulphur capture efficiency, with more sulphur released to the atmosphere than previously thought. In this study the stability of CaS in bed ashes from a 12 MW circulating FBB combusting coal has been investigated, with focus on the release of H 2 S gas. (orig.)

  18. The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, E. T.

    2017-12-01

    Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

  19. Thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere at solar minimum from global circulation model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Moffat-Griffin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of the Martian upper atmosphere have been produced from a self-consistent three-dimensional numerical model of the Martian thermosphere and ionosphere, called MarTIM. It covers an altitude range of 60 km to the upper thermosphere, usually at least 250 km altitude. A radiation scheme is included that allows the main sources of energy input, EUV/UV and IR absorption by CO2 and CO, to be calculated. CO2, N2 and O are treated as the major gases in MarTIM, and are mutually diffused (though neutral chemistry is ignored. The densities of other species (the minor gases, CO, Ar, O2 and NO, are based on diffusive equilibrium above the turbopause. The ionosphere is calculated from a simple photoionisation and charge exchange routine though in this paper we will only consider the thermal and dynamic structure of the neutral atmosphere at solar minimum conditions. The semi-diurnal (2,2 migrating tide, introduced at MarTIM's lower boundary, affects the dynamics up to 130 km. The Mars Climate Database (Lewis et al., 2001 can be used as a lower boundary in MarTIM. The effect of this is to increase wind speeds in the thermosphere and to produce small-scale structures throughout the thermosphere. Temperature profiles are in good agreement with Pathfinder results. Wind velocities are slightly lower compared to analysis of MGS accelerometer data (Withers, 2003. The novel step-by-step approach of adding in new features to MarTIM has resulted in further understanding of the drivers of the Martian thermosphere.

  20. Thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere at solar minimum from global circulation model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Moffat-Griffin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of the Martian upper atmosphere have been produced from a self-consistent three-dimensional numerical model of the Martian thermosphere and ionosphere, called MarTIM. It covers an altitude range of 60 km to the upper thermosphere, usually at least 250 km altitude. A radiation scheme is included that allows the main sources of energy input, EUV/UV and IR absorption by CO2 and CO, to be calculated. CO2, N2 and O are treated as the major gases in MarTIM, and are mutually diffused (though neutral chemistry is ignored. The densities of other species (the minor gases, CO, Ar, O2 and NO, are based on diffusive equilibrium above the turbopause. The ionosphere is calculated from a simple photoionisation and charge exchange routine though in this paper we will only consider the thermal and dynamic structure of the neutral atmosphere at solar minimum conditions. The semi-diurnal (2,2 migrating tide, introduced at MarTIM's lower boundary, affects the dynamics up to 130 km. The Mars Climate Database (Lewis et al., 2001 can be used as a lower boundary in MarTIM. The effect of this is to increase wind speeds in the thermosphere and to produce small-scale structures throughout the thermosphere. Temperature profiles are in good agreement with Pathfinder results. Wind velocities are slightly lower compared to analysis of MGS accelerometer data (Withers, 2003. The novel step-by-step approach of adding in new features to MarTIM has resulted in further understanding of the drivers of the Martian thermosphere.

  1. 2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.

    2013-12-01

    On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For

  2. Development and implementation of a Variable Infiltration Capacity model of surface hydrology into the General Circulation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lettenmaier, D.P.; Stamm, J.F.; Wood, E.F.

    1993-04-01

    A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is described for the representation of land surface hydrology in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The VIC model computes runoff as a function of the distribution of soil moisture capacity within a GCM grid cell. The major distinguishing feature of the VIC model relative to the bucket model currently used to represent the land surface in many GCMs is that it parameterizes the nonlinearity of the fraction of precipitation that infiltrates over a large area (hence the production of direct runoff) as a function of spatial average soil moisture storage, and that it models subsurface runoff between storms via a simple recession mechanism. The VIC model was incorporated into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM at R15 resolution (roughly 4.5 degrees latitude by 7.5 degrees longitude). Ten-year simulations of global climate were produced using the GFDL GCM with both VIC land surface hydrology, and, for comparison purposes, the standard bucket representation. Comparison of the ten year runs using the VIC model with those using bucket hydrology showed that for the VIC run, global average runoff increased, soil moisture decreased, evaporation decreased, land surface temperature increased, and precipitation decreased. As expected, changes in precipitation occurred primarily over the continents, especially in the northern hemisphere. Changes in the surface water balance for Africa, Australia, and South America were much less than for North American and Eurasia. Both VIC and bucket simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation were compared with gridded monthly average observation fields. These comparisons indicated that the VIC hydrology reproduced winter temperatures better, and summer temperatures worse, than the bucket model. The VIC hydrology better represented global precipitation, primarily as a result of partially reducing the upward bias in precipitation associated with the GFDL R15 bucket runs

  3. A Comparison of the Lower Stratospheric Age-Spectra Derived from a General Circulation Model and Two Data Assimilation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Zhu, Zhengxin; Pawson, Steven

    2002-01-01

    We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the DAS diabatic trajectory calculations there is too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum is thus too broad and the tropical mean age is too old as a result of mixing older mid latitude air with tropical air. Likewise the mid latitude mean age is too young due to the in mixing of tropical air. The DAS kinematic trajectory calculations show excessive vertical dispersion of parcels in addition to excessive exchange between the tropics and mid latitudes. Because air is moved rapidly to the troposphere from the vertical dispersion, the age spectrum is shifted toward the young side. The excessive vertical and meridional dispersion compensate in the kinematic case giving a reasonable tropical mean age. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same vertical and meridional dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the extra tropical mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM s are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra . show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles. These anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. The anomalies are

  4. Evolution of arbitrary moments of radiant intensity distribution for partially coherent general beams in atmospheric turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dan, Youquan; Xu, Yonggen

    2018-04-01

    The evolution law of arbitrary order moments of the Wigner distribution function, which can be applied to the different spatial power spectra, is obtained for partially coherent general beams propagating in atmospheric turbulence using the extended Huygens-Fresnel principle. A coupling coefficient of radiant intensity distribution (RID) in turbulence is introduced. Analytical expressions of the evolution of the first five-order moments, kurtosis parameter, coupling coefficient of RID for general beams in turbulence are derived, and the formulas are applied to Airy beams. Results show that there exist two types for general beams in turbulence. A larger value of kurtosis parameter for Airy beams also reveals that coupling effect due to turbulence is stronger. Both theoretical analysis and numerical results show that the maximum value of kurtosis parameter for an Airy beam in turbulence is independent of turbulence strength parameter and is only determined by inner scale of turbulence. Relative angular spread, kurtosis and coupling coefficient are less influenced by turbulence for Airy beams with a smaller decay factor and a smaller initial width of the first lobe.

  5. Prompt neutrinos from atmospheric charm in the general-mass variable-flavor-number scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benzke, M.; Garzelli, M.V.; Kniehl, B.A.; Kramer, G.; Moch, S.; Sigl, G.

    2017-08-01

    We present predictions for the prompt-neutrino flux arising from the decay of charmed mesons and baryons produced by the interactions of high-energy cosmic rays in the Earth's atmosphere, making use of a QCD approach on the basis of the general-mass variable-flavor-number scheme for the description of charm hadroproduction at NLO, complemented by a consistent set of fragmentation functions. We compare the theoretical results to those already obtained by our and other groups with different theoretical approaches. We provide comparisons with the experimental results obtained by the IceCube Collaboration in two different analyses and we discuss the implications for parton distribution functions.

  6. Lead-Lag relationships? Asynchrounous and Abrupt Shifts in Atmospheric Circulation, Temperature, and Vegetation during the 8.2 ka Event in the Eastern Mediterranean at Tenaghi Philippon, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedermeyer, E. M.; Mulch, A.; Pross, J.

    2017-12-01

    The "8.2 ka event" has been an abrupt and prominent climate perturbation during the Holocene, and is characterized by an episode of generally colder and dryer conditions in the Northern Hemisphere realm. However, evidence to what extent this event has had an impact on climate in the Mediterranean region is ambiguous, in particular with respect to rainfall, temperature and vegetation change on land. Here we present a new, high-resolution record (ø 15 years during the event) of paleotemperatures from the Tenaghi Philippon peat deposit, Eastern Macedonia, Greece, using the MBT'/CBT index based on brGDGTs (branched Glycerol-Dialkyl-Glycerol-Tetraethers). Our data show fairly stable temperatures before the event, which is initiated at 8.1 ka by an abrupt and continuous cooling during the first 35 years of the event. After a short, 10-year episode of minimum temperatures, the event is ended by a similarly abrupt and continuous warming within 38 years. Comparison of our record with a previous study of the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of higher-plant waxes (δDwax) on the same core1 shows that changes in temperature occurred simultaneously with shifts in atmospherics moisture sources (Mediterranean vs Atlantic). Interestingly, further comparison of our data with a previous palynological study of the same core2 reveals that changes in vegetation associated with the 8.2 ka event precede shifts in hydrology and temperature by 100 years. This suggests either pronounced changes in seasonality of temperature and rainfall after the onset of the 8.2 ka event, i.e. at the peak of the event, or that changes in local atmospheric circulation (moisture sources) and temperature where not the initial trigger of changes in vegetation. References: Pross, J., Kotthoff, U., Müller, U.C., Peyron, O., Dormoy, I., Schmiedl, G., Kalaitzidis, S. and Smith, A.M. (2009): Massive perturbation in terrestrial ecosystems of the Eastern Mediterranean region associated with the 8.2 kyr B

  7. Influence of SST from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric circulation in the precipitation regime of basin from Brazilian SIN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio, M. D.; Ramos, C. G.; Madeira, P.; de Macedo, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    The South American climate presents tropical, subtropical and extratropical features because of its territorial extension, being influenced by a variety of dynamical systems with different spatial and temporal scales which result in different climatic regimes in their subregions. Furthermore, the precipitation regime in South America is influenced by low-frequency phenomena as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic dipole and the Madden Julian Oscilation (MJO), in other words, is directly influenced by variations of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Due to the importance of the precipitation for many sectors including the planning of productive activities, such as agriculture, livestock and hydropower energy, many studies about climate variations in Brazil have tried to determine and explain the mechanisms that affect the precipitation regime. However, because of complexity of the climate system, and consequently of their impacts on the global precipitation regime, its interactions are not totally understood and therefore misrepresented in numerical models used to forecast climate. The precipitation pattern over hydrographic basin which form the Brasilian National Interconnected System (Sistema Interligado Nacional-SIN) are not yet known and therefore the climate forecast of these regions still presents considerable failure that need to be corrected due to its economic importance. In this context, the purpose here is to determine the precipitation patterns on the Brazilian SIN, based on SST and circulation observed data. In a second phase a forecast climate model for these regions will be produced. In this first moment 30 years (1983 to 2012) of SST over Pacific and Atlantic Ocean were analyzed, along with wind in 850 and 200 hPa and precipitation observed data. The precipitation patterns were analyzed through statistical analyses for interannual (ENSO) and intraseasonal (MJO) anomalies for these variables over the SIN basin. Subsequently, these

  8. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

    2016-08-01

    Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the

  9. The Surface Energy Balance at Local and Regional Scales-A Comparison of General Circulation Model Results with Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Krummel, P. B.; Kowalczyk, E. A.

    1993-06-01

    Aspects of the mean monthly energy balance at continental surfaces are examined by appeal to the results of general circulation model (GCM) simulations, climatological maps of surface fluxes, and direct observations. Emphasis is placed on net radiation and evaporation for (i) five continental regions (each approximately 20°×150°) within Africa, Australia, Eurasia, South America, and the United States; (ii) a number of continental sites in both hemispheres. Both the mean monthly values of the local and regional fluxes and the mean monthly diurnal cycles of the local fluxes are described. Mostly, GCMs tend to overestimate the mean monthly levels of net radiation by about 15% -20% on an annual basis, for observed annual values in the range 50 to 100 Wm2. This is probably the result of several deficiencies, including (i) continental surface albedos being undervalued in a number of the models, resulting in overestimates of the net shortwave flux at the surface (though this deficiency is steadily being addressed by modelers); (ii) incoming shortwave fluxes being overestimated due to uncertainties in cloud schemes and clear-sky absorption; (iii) land-surface temperatures being under-estimated resulting in an underestimate of the outgoing longwave flux. In contrast, and even allowing for the poor observational base for evaporation, there is no obvious overall bias in mean monthly levels of evaporation determined in GCMS, with one or two exceptions. Rather, and far more so than with net radiation, there is a wide range in values of evaporation for all regions investigated. For continental regions and at times of the year of low to moderate rainfall, there is a tendency for the simulated evaporation to be closely related to the precipitation-this is not surprising. In contrast, for regions where there is sufficient or excessive rainfall, the evaporation tends to follow the behavior of the net radiation. Again, this is not surprising given the close relation between

  10. Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, F.; Hoteit, I.; Koehl, A.

    2010-12-01

    The Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonal overturning circulation. In winter, a typical two-layer exchange structure, with a fresher inflow from the Gulf of Aden on top of an outflow from the Red Sea, is established. In summer months (June to September) this circulation pattern is changed to a three-layer structure: a surface outflow from the Red Sea on top of a subsurface intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water and a weakened deep outflow. This seasonal variability is studied using a general circulation model, MITgcm, with 6 hourly NCEP atmospheric forcing. The model is able to reproduce the observed seasonal variability very well. The forcing mechanisms of the seasonal variability related to seasonal surface wind stress and buoyancy flux, and water mass transformation processes associated with the seasonal overturning circulation are analyzed and presented.

  11. Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO{sub 2} in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koehler, Peter [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics Institute; Gerber, Stefan [University of Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics Institute; Princeton University, NJ (United States); Knutti, Reto [University of Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics Institute; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2005-12-01

    It is investigated how abrupt changes in the North Atlantic (NA) thermohaline circulation (THC) affect the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is forced with climate perturbations from glacial freshwater experiments with the ECBILT-CLIO ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model. A reorganisation of the marine carbon cycle is not addressed. Modelled NA THC collapses and recovers after about a millennium in response to prescribed freshwater forcing. The initial cooling of several Kelvin over Eurasia causes a reduction of extant boreal and temperate forests and a decrease in carbon storage in high northern latitudes, whereas improved growing conditions and slower soil decomposition rates lead to enhanced storage in mid-latitudes. The magnitude and evolution of global terrestrial carbon storage in response to abrupt THC changes depends sensitively on the initial climate conditions. These were varied using results from time slice simulations with the Hadley Centre model HadSM3 for different periods over the past 21 kyr. Changes in terrestrial storage vary between -67 and +50 PgC for the range of experiments with different initial conditions. Simulated peak-to-peak differences in atmospheric CO{sub 2} are 6 and 13 ppmv for glacial and late Holocene conditions. Simulated changes in {delta}{sup 13}C are between 0.15 and 0.25 permille. These simulated carbon storage anomalies during a NA THC collapse depend on their magnitude on the CO{sub 2} fertilisation feedback mechanism. The CO{sub 2} changes simulated for glacial conditions are compatible with available evidence from marine studies and the ice core CO{sub 2} record. The latter shows multi-millennial CO{sub 2} variations of up to 20 ppmv broadly in parallel with the Antarctic warm events A1 to A4 in the South and cooling in the North. (orig.)

  12. Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance of Melanoplus sanguinipes (Fabricius (Orthoptera: Acrididae in North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Olfert

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate is the dominant factor determining the distribution and abundance of most insect species. In recent years, the issue of climatic changes caused by human activities and the effects on agriculture has raised concern. General circulation model scenarios were applied to a bioclimatic model of Melanoplus sanguinipes to assess the potential impact of global warming on its distribution and relative abundance. Native to North America and widely distributed, M. sanguinipes is one of the grasshopper species of the continent most responsible for economic damage to grain, oilseed, pulse, and forage crops. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated that M. sanguinipes would have increased range and relative abundance under the three general circulation model scenarios in more northern regions of North America. Conversely, model output predicted that the range of this crop pest could contract in regions where climate conditions became limiting.

  13. Parallel implementation of the PHOENIX generalized stellar atmosphere program. II. Wavelength parallelization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, E.; Hauschildt, Peter H.

    1998-01-01

    We describe an important addition to the parallel implementation of our generalized nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) stellar atmosphere and radiative transfer computer program PHOENIX. In a previous paper in this series we described data and task parallel algorithms we have developed for radiative transfer, spectral line opacity, and NLTE opacity and rate calculations. These algorithms divided the work spatially or by spectral lines, that is, distributing the radial zones, individual spectral lines, or characteristic rays among different processors and employ, in addition, task parallelism for logically independent functions (such as atomic and molecular line opacities). For finite, monotonic velocity fields, the radiative transfer equation is an initial value problem in wavelength, and hence each wavelength point depends upon the previous one. However, for sophisticated NLTE models of both static and moving atmospheres needed to accurately describe, e.g., novae and supernovae, the number of wavelength points is very large (200,000 - 300,000) and hence parallelization over wavelength can lead both to considerable speedup in calculation time and the ability to make use of the aggregate memory available on massively parallel supercomputers. Here, we describe an implementation of a pipelined design for the wavelength parallelization of PHOENIX, where the necessary data from the processor working on a previous wavelength point is sent to the processor working on the succeeding wavelength point as soon as it is known. Our implementation uses a MIMD design based on a relatively small number of standard message passing interface (MPI) library calls and is fully portable between serial and parallel computers. copyright 1998 The American Astronomical Society

  14. Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, Giles H.F.; McCarroll, Danny; Loader, Neil J.; Gagen, Mary H.; Demmler, Joanne C. [Swansea University, Department of Geography, Swansea (United Kingdom); Kirchhefer, Andreas J. [University of Tromsoe, Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Tromsoe (Norway); Dendrooekologen, Tromsoe (Norway)

    2012-07-15

    Cloud cover currently represents the single greatest source of uncertainty in General Circulation Models. Stable carbon isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 13}C) from tree-rings, in areas of low moisture stress, are likely to be primarily controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and therefore should provide a proxy record for cloud cover or sunshine; indeed this association has previously been demonstrated experimentally for Scots pine in Fennoscandia, with sunlight explaining ca 90% of the variance in photosynthesis and temperature only ca 4%. We present a statistically verifiable 1011-year reconstruction of cloud cover from a well replicated, annually-resolved {delta}{sup 13}C record from Forfjord in coastal northwestern Norway. This reconstruction exhibits considerable variability in cloud cover over the past millennium, including extended sunny periods during the cool seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and warm cloudy periods during the eleventh, early fifteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that while a generally positive relationship persists between sunshine and temperature at high-frequency, at lower (multi-decadal) frequencies the relationship is more often a negative one, with cool periods being sunny (most notably the Little Ice Age period from 1600 to 1750 CE) and warm periods more cloudy (e.g. the mediaeval and the twentieth century). We conclude that these long-term changes may be caused by changes in the dominant circulation mode, likely to be associated with the Arctic Oscillation. There is also strong circumstantial evidence that prolonged periods of high summer cloud cover, with low PAR and probably high precipitation, may be in part responsible for major European famines caused by crop failures. (orig.)

  15. Snow cover setting-up dates in the north of Eurasia: relations and feedback to the macro-scale atmospheric circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Popova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations of snow cover onset data in 1950–2008 based on daily snow depth data collected at first-order meteorological stations of the former USSR compiled at the Russia Institute of Hydrometeorological Information are analyzed in order to reveal climatic norms, relations with macro-scale atmospheric circulation and influence of snow cover anomalies on strengthening/weakening of westerly basing on observational data and results of simulation using model Planet Simulator, as well. Patterns of mean snow cover setting-up data and their correlation with temperature of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical land presented in Fig. 1 show that the most sensible changes observed in last decade are caused by temperature trend since 1990th. For the most portion of the studied territory variations of snow cover setting-up data may be explained by the circulation indices in the terms of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns: Scand, EA–WR, WP and NAO (Fig. 2. Role of the Scand and EA–WR (see Fig. 2, а, в, г is recognized as the most significant.Changes of snow cover extent calculated on the base of snow cover onset data over the Russia territory, and its western and eastern parts as well, for the second decade of October (Fig. 3 demonstrate significant difference in variability between eastern and western regions. Eastern part of territory essentially differs by lower both year-to-year and long-term variations in the contrast to the western part, characterized by high variance including long-term tendencies: increase in 1950–70th and decrease in 1970–80 and during last six years. Nevertheless relations between snow cover anomalies and Arctic Oscillation (AO index appear to be significant exceptionally for the eastern part of the territory. In the same time negative linear correlation revealed between snow extent and AO index changes during 1950–2008 from statistically insignificant values (in 1950–70 and 1996–2008 to coefficient

  16. Assessment of a general methodology for the analysis of natural circulation stability with water at supercritical pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debrah, K. S.

    2014-07-01

    To advance nuclear energy to meet future energy needs, the concept of Super Critical Water-Cooled Reactor (SCWR) as part or Generation IV (Gen IV) reactors was introduced with plans to deploy by 2030. Supercritical water-cooled reactors pose new challenges in stability and natural circulation phenomena at supercritical pressures because of the strong variability of thermodynamic and thermo-physical properties. ln this research, included in the frame work of the International Atomic Energy Agency (lAEA) fellowship and Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on H eat transfer Behavior and Thermo hydraulics Codes Testing for SCWRs , the natural circulation H 2 O experimental data at supercritical pressures of 25 MPa obtained at the China Institute of Atomic Energy (CIAE) of China, was used to evaluate the predictions of different system codes: RELAP5/MOD3.3, STAR-CCM+ as well as three (3) different and independent developed in-house codes (Ishii-sup loop, NCLoop T ran and NCLoop L ine). Stability analyses of an idealized loop (loop equivalent to CIAE natural circulation loop) of uniform diameter equivalent to the CIAE natural circulation loop at 25 MPa was performed using RELAP5 and an in-house code (Ishii-sup Loop). It was found for both RELAP and Ishii-sup Loop that, when heat structures are accounted for in models equipped with heat transfer and friction correlations for 'normal' fluids, the comparison with experimental data is not completely satisfactory because the observed experimental oscillations were delayed in simulation. It has also been found that the stability margin was slightly earlier than the peak of the flow rate-power curve at a given inlet enthalpy. Results from STAR-CCM+ was also compared with results obtained with RELAP5 and the in-house code of NCLoop. Even though STAR-CCM+ predicted a lower flow rate than the in-house codes, all codes exhibited the ability to predict the instability and results from all codes compared favorably. Stability

  17. Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 2. Winter circulation

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao

    2014-04-01

    The shallow winter overturning circulation in the Red Sea is studied using a 50 year high-resolution MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) simulation with realistic atmospheric forcing. The overturning circulation for a typical year, represented by 1980, and the climatological mean are analyzed using model output to delineate the three-dimensional structure and to investigate the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The horizontal model circulation in the winter of 1980 is dominated by energetic eddies. The climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model\\'s winter overturning circulation. The simulated water exchange is not hydraulically controlled in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb; instead, the exchange is limited by bottom and lateral boundary friction and, to a lesser extent, by interfacial friction due to the vertical viscosity at the interface between the inflow and the outflow. Key Points Sinking occurs in a narrow boundary layer along the eastern boundary Surface western boundary current switches into an eastern boundary current Water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is not hydraulically controlled © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  18. Examination of aerosol distributions and radiative effects over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea region during ICARB using satellite data and a general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Cherian

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyse aerosol loading and its direct radiative effects over the Bay of Bengal (BoB and Arabian Sea (AS regions for the Integrated Campaign on Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB undertaken during 2006, using satellite data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on board the Terra and Aqua satellites, the Aerosol Index from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI on board the Aura satellite, and the European-Community Hamburg (ECHAM5.5 general circulation model extended by Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM. By statistically comparing with large-scale satellite data sets, we firstly show that the aerosol properties measured during the ship-based ICARB campaign and simulated by the model are representative for the BoB and AS regions and the pre-monsoon season. In a second step, the modelled aerosol distributions were evaluated by a comparison with the measurements from the ship-based sunphotometer, and the satellite retrievals during ICARB. It is found that the model broadly reproduces the observed spatial and temporal variability in aerosol optical depth (AOD over BoB and AS regions. However, AOD was systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the BoB leg. We show that this underprediction of AOD is mostly because of the deficiencies in the coarse mode, where the model shows that dust is the dominant component. The analysis of dust AOD along with the OMI Aerosol Index indicate that missing dust transport that results from too low dust emission fluxes over the Thar Desert region in the model caused this deficiency. Thirdly, we analysed the spatio-temporal variability of AOD comparing the ship-based observations to the large-scale satellite observations and simulations. It was found that most of the variability along the track was from geographical patterns, with a minor influence by single events. Aerosol fields were homogeneous enough to yield a good statistical agreement

  19. River-flow predictions for the South African mid-summer using a coupled general circulation model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Olivier, C

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available African Society for Atmospheric Sciences (SASAS) 2013 http://sasas.ukzn.ac.za/homepage.aspx 1 Tel: +27 12 367 6008 Fax: +27 12 367 6189 Email: cobus.olivier@weathersa.co.za RIVER-FLOW PREDICTIONS FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN MID-SUMMER USING A COUPLED... for Atmospheric Sciences (SASAS) 2013 http://sasas.ukzn.ac.za/homepage.aspx 2 drops to 127 nationally and 65 stations for the area of interest. A recent coupled modeling system developed at the South African Weather Service (SAWS), that utilizes...

  20. Variability of onset and retreat of the rainy season in mainland China and associations with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Hao, Zhenchun; Shao, Quanxi; Hao, Jie; Nyima, Tsring

    2018-02-01

    Precipitation plays an important role in both environment and human society and is a significant factor in many scientific researches such as water resources, agriculture and climate impact studies. The onset and retreat of rainy season are useful features to understand the variability of precipitation under the influence of climate change. In this study, the characteristics of onset and retreat in mainland China are investigated. The multi-scale moving t-test was applied to determine rainy season and K-means cluster analysis was used to divide China into sub-regions to better investigate rainy season features. The possible linkage of changing characteristics of onset and retreat to climate factors were also explored. Results show that: (1) the onset started from middle March in the southeast of China to early June in the northwest and rainy season ended earliest in the northwest and southeast while the central China had the latest retreat; (2) Delayed onset and advanced retreat over time were observed in many parts of China, together with overall stable or increased rainy-season precipitation, would likely lead to higher probability of flooding; (3) The onset (retreat) was associated with the increased (decreased) number of cyclones in eastern China and anticyclone near the South China Sea. Delayed onset, and advanced retreat were likely related to cold and warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the conventional El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions, respectively. These results suggest that predictability of rainy season can be improved through the atmospheric circulation and SST, and help water resources management and agricultural planning.

  1. Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Ying, Kairan; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2018-04-01

    Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend.

  2. The tropospheric biennial oscillation defined by a biennial mode of sea surface temperature and its impact on the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinju; Kim, Kwang-Yul

    2016-10-01

    Temporal and spatial patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Indo-Pacific region are analyzed in conjunction with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation as represented by the biennial mode of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The biennial components of key variables are identified independently of other variability via CSEOF analysis. Then, its impact on the Asian-Australian monsoon is examined. The biennial mode exhibits a seasonally distinctive atmospheric response over the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific (EIWP) region (90°-150°E, 20°S-20°N). In boreal summer, local meridional circulation is a distinguishing characteristic over the tropical EIWP region, whereas a meridionally expanded branch of intensified zonal circulation develops in austral summer. Temporally varying evolution and distinct timing of SSTA phase transition in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is considered a main factor for this variation of circulation in the tropical EIWP region. The impact of the biennial mode is not the same between the two seasons, with different impacts over ocean areas in Asian monsoon and Australian monsoon regions.

  3. A General Approach to Enhance Short Wave Satellite Imagery by Removing Background Atmospheric Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald Scheirer

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric interaction distorts the surface signal received by a space-borne instrument. Images derived from visible channels appear often too bright and with reduced contrast. This hampers the use of RGB imagery otherwise useful in ocean color applications and in forecasting or operational disaster monitoring, for example forest fires. In order to correct for the dominant source of atmospheric noise, a simple, fast and flexible algorithm has been developed. The algorithm is implemented in Python and freely available in PySpectral which is part of the PyTroll family of open source packages, allowing easy access to powerful real-time image-processing tools. Pre-calculated look-up tables of top of atmosphere reflectance are derived by off-line calculations with RTM DISORT as part of the LibRadtran package. The approach is independent of platform and sensor bands, and allows it to be applied to any band in the visible spectral range. Due to the use of standard atmospheric profiles and standard aerosol loads, it is possible just to reduce the background disturbance. Thus signals from excess aerosols become more discernible. Examples of uncorrected and corrected satellite images demonstrate that this flexible real-time algorithm is a useful tool for atmospheric correction.

  4. New directions in hydro-climatic histories: observational data recovery, proxy records and the atmospheric circulation reconstructions over the earth (ACRE) initiative in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Fiona; Allan, Rob; Switzer, Adam D.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Wasson, Robert James; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Gartner, Richard

    2015-12-01

    The value of historic observational weather data for reconstructing long-term climate patterns and the detailed analysis of extreme weather events has long been recognized (Le Roy Ladurie, 1972; Lamb, 1977). In some regions however, observational data has not been kept regularly over time, or its preservation and archiving has not been considered a priority by governmental agencies. This has been a particular problem in Southeast Asia where there has been no systematic country-by-country method of keeping or preserving such data, the keeping of data only reaches back a few decades, or where instability has threatened the survival of historic records. As a result, past observational data are fragmentary, scattered, or even absent altogether. The further we go back in time, the more obvious the gaps. Observational data can be complimented however by historical documentary or proxy records of extreme events such as floods, droughts and other climatic anomalies. This review article highlights recent initiatives in sourcing, recovering, and preserving historical weather data and the potential for integrating the same with proxy (and other) records. In so doing, it focuses on regional initiatives for data research and recovery - particularly the work of the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth's (ACRE) Southeast Asian regional arm (ACRE SEA) - and the latter's role in bringing together disparate, but interrelated, projects working within this region. The overarching goal of the ACRE SEA initiative is to connect regional efforts and to build capacity within Southeast Asian institutions, agencies and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to improve and extend historical instrumental, documentary and proxy databases of Southeast Asian hydroclimate, in order to contribute to the generation of high-quality, high-resolution historical hydroclimatic reconstructions (reanalyses) and, to build linkages with humanities researchers

  5. Atmospheric circulation changes and neoglacial conditions in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: insights from PMIP2 simulations at 6 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Maisa; Moreno, Patricio I.

    2011-07-01

    Glacial geologic studies in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes (40-54°S) indicate renewed glacial activity in southern South America (Patagonia) and New Zealand's (NZ) South Island starting at ˜7 kyr, the so-called neoglaciation. Available data indicate that neoglacial advances in these regions occurred during a rising trend in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, lower-than-present but increasing summer insolation and seasonality contrasts. In this paper we examine the climatological context in which neoglaciations occurred through analysis of the complete Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP2) database of simulations at 6 kyr for the SH. We observe that the amplitude of the annual insolation cycle in the SH did not change significantly at 6 kyr compared to the pre-industrial values, the largest difference occurring in autumn (MAM, negative anomalies) and spring (SON, positive anomalies). The simulated changes in temperatures over the SH respond to the insolation changes, with a 1-2 month delay over the oceans. This results in a reduced amplitude of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over most continental regions, except over Patagonia and NZ, that show a slight increase. In contrast, large-scale circulation features, such as the low and upper level winds and the subtropical anticyclones show an amplified annual cycle, as a direct response to the increased/decreased insolation during the transitional seasons SON/MAM. In the annual mean, there is a small but consistent equatorward shift of the latitude of maximum wind speed of 1-3° over the entire SH, which results in a small increase of wind speed over the South Pacific and Atlantic Oceans north of ˜50°S and a widespread decline south of 50°S. PMIP2 simulations for 6 kyr, indicate that in the annual mean, the SH mid-latitudes were colder, wetter and with stronger winds north of about 50°S. These conditions are consistent with the observed neoglacial advances in the

  6. Atmospheric circulation changes and neoglacial conditions in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: insights from PMIP2 simulations at 6 kyr

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rojas, Maisa [University of Chile, Department of Geophysics, Santiago (Chile); Moreno, Patricio I. [University of Chile, Department of Ecology, Santiago (Chile)

    2011-07-15

    Glacial geologic studies in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes (40-54 S) indicate renewed glacial activity in southern South America (Patagonia) and New Zealand's (NZ) South Island starting at {proportional_to}7 kyr, the so-called neoglaciation. Available data indicate that neoglacial advances in these regions occurred during a rising trend in atmospheric CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} concentrations, lower-than-present but increasing summer insolation and seasonality contrasts. In this paper we examine the climatological context in which neoglaciations occurred through analysis of the complete Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP2) database of simulations at 6 kyr for the SH. We observe that the amplitude of the annual insolation cycle in the SH did not change significantly at 6 kyr compared to the pre-industrial values, the largest difference occurring in autumn (MAM, negative anomalies) and spring (SON, positive anomalies). The simulated changes in temperatures over the SH respond to the insolation changes, with a 1-2 month delay over the oceans. This results in a reduced amplitude of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over most continental regions, except over Patagonia and NZ, that show a slight increase. In contrast, large-scale circulation features, such as the low and upper level winds and the subtropical anticyclones show an amplified annual cycle, as a direct response to the increased/decreased insolation during the transitional seasons SON/MAM. In the annual mean, there is a small but consistent equatorward shift of the latitude of maximum wind speed of 1-3 over the entire SH, which results in a small increase of wind speed over the South Pacific and Atlantic Oceans north of {proportional_to}50 S and a widespread decline south of 50 S. PMIP2 simulations for 6 kyr, indicate that in the annual mean, the SH mid-latitudes were colder, wetter and with stronger winds north of about 50 S. These conditions are consistent

  7. Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja

    2013-04-01

    following questions. How is the interannual variability of the observed precipitation gradient related to atmospheric circulation east (Amazon basin) and west (south-east Pacific) of the study region? If those relations are quantifiable, are there any forecast potentials for the characteristics of the precipitation gradient during the raining season? The results of the study provide valuable information needed to understand the generation of rainfall in the frame of a case study for the largest metropolitan area that is located at the arid Pacific coast of Peru. This information may also be useful for local managers in order to optimise water resource management and land use strategies.

  8. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  9. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-01

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP in CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.

  10. Direct weakening of tropical circulations from masked CO2 radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merlis, Timothy M

    2015-10-27

    Climate models robustly simulate weakened mean circulations of the tropical atmosphere in direct response to increased carbon dioxide (CO2). The direct response to CO2, defined by the response to radiative forcing in the absence of changes in sea surface temperature, affects tropical precipitation and tropical cyclone genesis, and these changes have been tied to the weakening of the mean tropical circulation. The mechanism underlying this direct CO2-forced circulation change has not been elucidated. Here, I demonstrate that this circulation weakening results from spatial structure in CO2's radiative forcing. In regions of ascending circulation, such as the intertropical convergence zone, the CO2 radiative forcing is reduced, or "masked," by deep-convective clouds and high humidity; in subsiding regions, such as the subtropics, the CO2 radiative forcing is larger because the atmosphere is drier and deep-convective clouds are infrequent. The spatial structure of the radiative forcing reduces the need for the atmosphere to transport energy. This, in turn, weakens the mass overturning of the tropical circulation. The previously unidentified mechanism is demonstrated in a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulation model simulations with altered radiative transfer to suppress the cloud masking of the radiative forcing. The mechanism depends on the climatological distribution of clouds and humidity, rather than uncertain changes in these quantities. Masked radiative forcing thereby offers an explanation for the robustness of the direct circulation weakening under increased CO2.

  11. Portable University Model of the Atmosphere (PUMA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraedrich, K.; Kirk, E.; Lunkeit, F. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    1998-10-01

    The Portable University Model of the Atmosphere (PUMA) is based on the Reading multi-level spectral model SGCM (Simple Global Circulation Model) described by Hoskins and Simmons (1975) and James and Gray (1986). Originally developed as a numerical prediction model, it was changed to perform as a circulation model. For example, James and Gray (1986) studied the influence of surface friction on the circulation of a baroclinic atmosphere, James and James (1992), and James et al. (1994) investigated ultra-low-frequency variability, and Mole and James (1990) analyzed the baroclinic adjustment in the context of a zonally varying flow. Frisius et al. (1998) simulated an idealized storm track by embedding a dipole structure in a zonally symmetric forcing field and Lunkeit et al. (1998) investigated the sensitivity of GCM (General Circulation Model) scenarios by an adaption technique applicapable to SGCMs. (orig.)

  12. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lockwood, J G

    1982-09-16

    The effects of increasing CO/sub 2/ concentrations in the atmosphere are estimated using general circulation models (GCMs), which have the ability to portray many of the nonlinear feedback processes which serve to regulate atmospheric (and hence climatic) changes. GCMs predict that a doubling of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would result in a 2-3 k increase of globally averaged surface air temperature. The largest warming will occur in the winter in high latitudes. Detection studies are now being directed towards isolating those parts of observed climate fluctuations that are attributable to increasing atmospheric CO/sub 2/. (KRM)

  13. Assessing the ability of isotope-enabled General Circulation Models to simulate the variability of Iceland water vapor isotopic composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erla Sveinbjornsdottir, Arny; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Jonsson, Thorsteinn; Ritter, Francois; Riser, Camilla; Messon-Delmotte, Valerie; Bonne, Jean Louis; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

    2014-05-01

    During the fall of 2010 we installed an autonomous water vapor spectroscopy laser (Los Gatos Research analyzer) in a lighthouse on the Southwest coast of Iceland (63.83°N, 21.47°W). Despite initial significant problems with volcanic ash, high wind, and attack of sea gulls, the system has been continuously operational since the end of 2011 with limited down time. The system automatically performs calibration every 2 hours, which results in high accuracy and precision allowing for analysis of the second order parameter, d-excess, in the water vapor. We find a strong linear relationship between d-excess and local relative humidity (RH) when normalized to SST. The observed slope of approximately -45 o/oo/% is similar to theoretical predictions by Merlivat and Jouzel [1979] for smooth surface, but the calculated intercept is significant lower than predicted. Despite this good linear agreement with theoretical calculations, mismatches arise between the simulated seasonal cycle of water vapour isotopic composition using LMDZiso GCM nudged to large-scale winds from atmospheric analyses, and our data. The GCM is not able to capture seasonal variations in local RH, nor seasonal variations in d-excess. Based on daily data, the performance of LMDZiso to resolve day-to-day variability is measured based on the strength of the correlation coefficient between observations and model outputs. This correlation coefficient reaches ~0.8 for surface absolute humidity, but decreases to ~0.6 for δD and ~0.45 d-excess. Moreover, the magnitude of day-to-day humidity variations is also underestimated by LMDZiso, which can explain the underestimated magnitude of isotopic depletion. Finally, the simulated and observed d-excess vs. RH has similar slopes. We conclude that the under-estimation of d-excess variability may partly arise from the poor performance of the humidity simulations.

  14. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  15. Global Distributions of {sup 137}Cs, {sup 239,240}Pu and the Ratio of {sup 239,240}Pu/{sup 137}Cs in an Ocean General Circulation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Misumi, K.; Yoshida, Y. [Environmental Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko (Japan); Aoyama, M. [Geochemical Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Hirose, K. [Sophia University, Tokyo (Japan)

    2013-07-15

    The spatial distributions and the temporal variations of {sup 137}Cs and {sup 239,240}Pu concentrations were simulated by using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). These radionuclides are introduced into the ocean by global fallout originating from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. {sup 137}Cs derived from global fallout is transported into the ocean interior by advection and diffusion, and the {sup 137}Cs concentration is reduced by radioactive decay. In contrast to {sup 137}Cs, {sup 239,240}Pu, which is a particle reactive radionuclide, is a biogeochemical tracer. The global distribution of the {sup 239,240}Pu{sup /137}Cs ratio was investigated in an OGCM with a biogeochemical process model. A half regeneration depth (HRD) of {sup 239,240}Pu was estimated from curve fitting of the vertical profile of the {sup 239,240}Pu/{sup 137}Cs ratio. Simulated distribution of the HRD is in good agreement with observation, except in the subarctic gyre. The HRD is a good tool to improve the parameters in the biogeochemical process. (author)

  16. [Effect of dexmedetomidine and midazolam on respiration and circulation functions in patients undergoing open heart surgery under acupuncture-assisted general anesthesia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Wei; Wang, Jian; Fu, Guo-Qiang; Yuan, Lan

    2014-06-01

    To evaluate the effect of Dexmedetomidine and Midazolam on respiratory and circulation in patients experiencing open heart surgery under acupuncture-assisted general anesthesia. Sixty patients undergoing open heart surgery (cardiac valve replacement surgery and aortic valve replacement surgery) were randomly and equally divided into Dexmedetomidine (D) and Midazolam (M) groups. Electroacupuncture (EA) was applied to bilateral Yunmen (LU 2), Zhongfu (LU1), Lieque (LU7) and Neiguan (PC6). For patients of group D, Dexmedetomidine (i.v., loading dose: 1 microg/kg, and succedent dose: 0.2-1 microg x kg(-1) x h(-1)) was given. For patients of group M, Midazolam (i.v., loading dose: 0.05 mg/kg, succedent dose: 0.01-0.03 mg x kg(-1) x h(-1)) was given. Arterial oxygen pressure (PaO2), arterial carbondioxide tension (PaCO2), O2 saturation (SPO2), mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR), anesthetic effect, time of spontaneous breathing recovery, and time of resuscitation were recorded before operation (T0), immediately after skin incision (T1), immediately after sternotomy (T2), before suspension of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB, T3), immediately after cardiac re-beating (T4), immediately after CPB cessation (T5), and at the end of surgery (T6). Before operation, no significant differences were found between the group D and M in the levels of PaO2, PaCO2 and SPO2 (P > 0.05). The PaO2 and SPO2 levels after skin incision, sternotomy, before suspension of CPB and at the end of surgery were significantly lower in group M than in group D (P heart re-beating,after CPB cessation and at the end of surgery in group M were considerably higher than those in group D (P 0.05). It suggested that the respiration and circulation states in group D were more smoothly than those in group M. There was no significant difference between the two groups in the time of resuscitation (P > 0.05). Dexmedetomidine is superior to Midazolam in analgesia, and improving respiration and circulation

  17. Arctic circulation regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

  18. The equilibrium response to doubling atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, J.F.B.

    1990-01-01

    The equilibrium response of climate to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide as simulated by general circulation models is assessed. Changes that are physically plausible are summarized, along with an indication of the confidence attributable to those changes. The main areas of uncertainty are highlighted. They include: equilibrium experiments with mixed-layer oceans focusing on temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture; equilibrium studies with dynamical ocean-atmosphere models; results deduced from equilibrium CO 2 experiments; and priorities for future research to improve atmosphere models

  19. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    OpenAIRE

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-01-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...

  20. Can we determine what controls the spatio-temporal distribution of d-excess and 17O-excess in precipitation using the LMDZ general circulation model?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Risi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Combined measurements of the H218O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H218O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H217O have led to another second-order parameter: 17O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD and during the last glacial maximum (LGM. The simulation of D-excess and 17O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity, Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17O

  1. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OF TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS OVER A WIDE RANGE OF ORBITAL AND ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaspi, Yohai [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, 234 Herzl st., 76100, Rehovot (Israel); Showman, Adam P., E-mail: yohai.kaspi@weizmann.ac.il [Department of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, The University of Arizona, 1629 University Blvd., Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2015-05-01

    The recent discoveries of terrestrial exoplanets and super-Earths extending over a broad range of orbital and physical parameters suggest that these planets will span a wide range of climatic regimes. Characterization of the atmospheres of warm super-Earths has already begun and will be extended to smaller and more distant planets over the coming decade. The habitability of these worlds may be strongly affected by their three-dimensional atmospheric circulation regimes, since the global climate feedbacks that control the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone—including transitions to Snowball-like states and runaway-greenhouse feedbacks—depend on the equator-to-pole temperature differences, patterns of relative humidity, and other aspects of the dynamics. Here, using an idealized moist atmospheric general circulation model including a hydrological cycle, we study the dynamical principles governing the atmospheric dynamics on such planets. We show how the planetary rotation rate, stellar flux, atmospheric mass, surface gravity, optical thickness, and planetary radius affect the atmospheric circulation and temperature distribution on such planets. Our simulations demonstrate that equator-to-pole temperature differences, meridional heat transport rates, structure and strength of the winds, and the hydrological cycle vary strongly with these parameters, implying that the sensitivity of the planet to global climate feedbacks will depend significantly on the atmospheric circulation. We elucidate the possible climatic regimes and diagnose the mechanisms controlling the formation of atmospheric jet streams, Hadley and Ferrel cells, and latitudinal temperature differences. Finally, we discuss the implications for understanding how the atmospheric circulation influences the global climate.

  2. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OF TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS OVER A WIDE RANGE OF ORBITAL AND ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaspi, Yohai; Showman, Adam P.

    2015-01-01

    The recent discoveries of terrestrial exoplanets and super-Earths extending over a broad range of orbital and physical parameters suggest that these planets will span a wide range of climatic regimes. Characterization of the atmospheres of warm super-Earths has already begun and will be extended to smaller and more distant planets over the coming decade. The habitability of these worlds may be strongly affected by their three-dimensional atmospheric circulation regimes, since the global climate feedbacks that control the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone—including transitions to Snowball-like states and runaway-greenhouse feedbacks—depend on the equator-to-pole temperature differences, patterns of relative humidity, and other aspects of the dynamics. Here, using an idealized moist atmospheric general circulation model including a hydrological cycle, we study the dynamical principles governing the atmospheric dynamics on such planets. We show how the planetary rotation rate, stellar flux, atmospheric mass, surface gravity, optical thickness, and planetary radius affect the atmospheric circulation and temperature distribution on such planets. Our simulations demonstrate that equator-to-pole temperature differences, meridional heat transport rates, structure and strength of the winds, and the hydrological cycle vary strongly with these parameters, implying that the sensitivity of the planet to global climate feedbacks will depend significantly on the atmospheric circulation. We elucidate the possible climatic regimes and diagnose the mechanisms controlling the formation of atmospheric jet streams, Hadley and Ferrel cells, and latitudinal temperature differences. Finally, we discuss the implications for understanding how the atmospheric circulation influences the global climate

  3. Prognostic value of circulating microRNAs on heart failure-related morbidity and mortality in two large diverse cohorts of general heart failure patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bayés-Genis, Antoni; Lanfear, David E.; de Ronde, Maurice W. J.; Lupón, Josep; Leenders, Joost J.; Liu, Zhen; Zuithoff, Nicolaas P. A.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Zamora, Elisabet; de Antonio, Marta; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.; Pinto-Sietsma, Sara-Joan; Pinto, Yigal M.

    2018-01-01

    Aims Small studies suggested circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) as biomarkers for heart failure (HF). However, standardized approaches and quality assessment for measuring circulating miRNAs are not uniformly established, and most studies have been small, so that results are inconsistent. We used a

  4. GCM simulations of cold dry Snowball Earth atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.; Held, I.; Marotzke, J.

    2009-12-01

    We use the full-physics atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 to investigate cold and virtually dry Snowball Earth atmospheres. These result from specifying sea ice as the surface boundary condition everywhere, corresponding to a frozen aquaplanet, while keeping total solar irradiance at its present-day value of 1365 Wm-2 and setting atmospheric carbon dioxide to 300 ppmv. Here, we present four simulations corresponding to the four possible combinations of enabled or disabled diurnal and seasonal cycles. The aim of this study is twofold. First, we focus on the zonal-mean circulation of Snowball Earth atmospheres, which, due to missing moisture, might constitute an ideal though yet unexplored testbed for theories of atmospheric dynamics. Second, we investigate tropical surface temperatures with an emphasis on the impact of the diurnal and seasonal cycles. This will indicate whether the presence of the diurnal or seasonal cycle would facilitate or anticipate the escape from Snowball Earth conditions when total solar irradiance or atmospheric CO2 levels were increased. The dynamics of the tropical circulation in Snowball Earth atmospheres differs substantially from that in the modern atmosphere. The analysis of the mean zonal momentum budget reveals that the mean flow meridional advection of absolute vorticity is primarily balanced by vertical diffusion of zonal momentum. The contribution of eddies is found to be even smaller than the contribution of mean flow vertical advection of zonal momentum, the latter being usually neglected in theories for the Hadley circulation, at least in its upper tropospheric branch. Suppressing vertical diffusion of horizontal momentum above 850 hPa leads to a stronger Hadley circulation. This behaviour cannot be understood from axisymmetric models of the atmosphere, nor idealized atmospheric general circulation models, which both predict a weakening of the Hadley circulation when the vertical viscosity is decreased globally. We

  5. On the General Theory of Thermal and Gravitational Excitation of Atmospheric Oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    f. Mariani

    1959-06-01

    Full Text Available In questo lavoro si considera in forma generale la teoria delle oscillazionidi marea della atmosfera, di origine sia gravitazionale sia termica,assumendo la corretta variazione con la quota della accelerazione di aravità g e del raggio vettore R. La equazione fondamentale che descrive il fenomenodi marea viene risolta separatamente nei due casi di oscillazionipuramente gravitazionali e di oscillazioni puramente termiche, per un modellodi atmosfera {fig. 1 ottenuto approssimando con tratti lineari la effettivavariazione con la quota della scala delle altezze H.Rispetto al caso classico che g ed R non variino con la quota, si constatanel caso puramente gravitazionale un aumento del periodo di risonanzadella atmosfera di qualche minuto-, la ampiezza di risonanza al suoloè invece circa 1.5 volte inferiore-, il più notevole effetto è tuttavia un notevoleinnalzamento, da circa 35 a circa 80 km, della quota a cui la oscillazionedi pressione cambia di segno. Risultati sostanzialmente analoghi valgonoper la oscillazione di origine puramente termica, in quanto in condizionidi risonanza le oscillazioni della pressione nei due casi tendono aidentificarsi.Si calcola infine la ampiezza di oscillazione della temperatura prodottadalla oscillazione di pressione e si trova che essa è dell'ordine dei decimidi grado centigrado, in accordo con le indicazioni sperimentali.

  6. The Air Quality and Economic Impact of Atmospheric Lead from General Aviation Aircraft in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, P. J.; Selin, N. E.; Barrett, S. R. H.

    2015-12-01

    While leaded fuels for automobiles were phased-out of use in the United States by 1996, lead (Pb) continues to be used as an anti-knock additive for piston-driven aircraft. We model the annual concentration of atmospheric lead attributable to piston driven aircraft emissions in the continental United States using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Using aircraft emissions inventories for 2008, we then calculate annual economic damages from lead as lifetime employment losses for a one-year cohort exposed to elevated atmospheric lead concentrations using a range of concentration response functions from literature. Mean and median estimates of annual damages attributable to lifetime lost earnings are 1.06 and 0.60 billion respectively. Economy-wide impacts of IQ-deficits on productivity and labor increase expected damages by 54%. Damages are sensitive to background lead concentrations; as emissions decrease from other sources, the damages attributable to aviation are expected to increase holding aviation emissions constant. The monetary impact of General Aviation lead emissions on the environment is the same order of magnitude as noise, climate change, and air quality degradation from all commercial operations.

  7. Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele; Borovikov, Anna Y.; Suarez, Max