WorldWideScience

Sample records for atmospheric climate model

  1. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boville, B. A.; Garcia, R. R.; Sassi, F.; Kinnison, D.; Roble, R. G.

    The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is an upward exten- sion of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model. WACCM simulates the atmosphere from the surface to the lower thermosphere (140 km) and includes both dynamical and chemical components. The salient points of the model formulation will be summarized and several aspects of its performance will be discussed. Comparison with observations indicates that WACCM produces re- alistic temperature and zonal wind distributions. Both the mean state and interannual variability will be summarized. Temperature inversions in the midlatitude mesosphere have been reported by several authors and are also found in WACCM. These inver- sions are formed primarily by planetary wave forcing, but the background state on which they form also requires gravity wave forcing. The response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies will be examined by com- paring simulations with observed SSTs for 1950-1998 to a simulation with clima- tological annual cycle of SSTs. The response to ENSO events is found to extend though the winter stratosphere and mesosphere and a signal is also found at the sum- mer mesopause. The experimental framework allows the ENSO signal to be isolated, because no other forcings are included (e.g. solar variability and volcanic eruptions) which complicate the observational record. The temperature and wind variations asso- ciated with ENSO are large enough to generate significant perturbations in the chem- ical composition of the middle atmosphere, which will also be discussed.

  2. Learning About Climate and Atmospheric Models Through Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, D. D.

    2017-12-01

    From the analysis of ensemble variability to improving simulation performance, machine learning algorithms can play a powerful role in understanding the behavior of atmospheric and climate models. To learn about model behavior, we create training and testing data sets through ensemble techniques that sample different model configurations and values of input parameters, and then use supervised machine learning to map the relationships between the inputs and outputs. Following this procedure, we have used support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting and other methods to investigate a variety of atmospheric and climate model phenomena. We have used machine learning to predict simulation crashes, estimate the probability density function of climate sensitivity, optimize simulations of the Madden Julian oscillation, assess the impacts of weather and emissions uncertainty on atmospheric dispersion, and quantify the effects of model resolution changes on precipitation. This presentation highlights recent examples of our applications of machine learning to improve the understanding of climate and atmospheric models. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  3. Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

    1999-10-01

    We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

  4. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  5. Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

    2014-08-01

    So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

  6. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Josse, B.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Schulz, M.; Skeie, R. B.; Strode, S.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to- model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry.

  7. Atmospheric sulfur and climate changes: a modelling study at mid and high-southern latitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castebrunet, H.

    2007-09-01

    The mid and high-southern latitudes are still marginally affected by anthropogenic sulfur emissions. They are the only regions in the world where the natural cycle of the atmospheric sulfur may still be observed. Sulfur aerosols are well-known for their radiative impact, and thus interact with climate. Climate can in turn affect atmospheric sulfur sources, distribution and chemistry. Antarctic ice cores provide information on the evolution of climate and sulfur deposition at the surface of the ice sheet at glacial-interglacial time scales. The aim of this thesis is to develop and use modeling towards a better understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle in antarctic and sub-antarctic regions. Ice core data are used to validate model results under glacial climate conditions. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to a sulfur chemistry module is used: the LMD-ZTSulfur model, version 4. An update of both the physical and chemical parts of the model. The model was first performed. The impact of there changes on modelled sulfur cycle are evaluated for modern climate. Further, boundary conditions are adapted to simulate the atmospheric circulation and sulfur cycle at the Last Glacial Maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. In the model, sulfur is found to be highly sensitive to antarctic sea-ice coverage, which is still poorly known during the ice age. An original dataset of ice-age sea-ice coverage was developed. Its impact on the oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide, main precursor of sulfur aerosols at high-southern latitudes, is discussed. Using the same oceanic sulfur reservoirs as for present day climate, the model broadly reproduces the glacial deposits of sulfur aerosols on the Antarctic plateau, suggesting little impact of climate on oceanic sulfur production in the Antarctic region. Sensitivity tests were carried out to draw an up-to-date status of major uncertainties and difficulties facing future progress in understanding atmospheric

  8. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  9. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  10. The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Krapp

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available We present simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The model is insofar more consistent than previous models because it captures the essential interactions between ocean and atmosphere and between atmosphere and vegetation. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present day. Higher than present-day CO2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K. The associated water vapour feedback enhances the greenhouse effect which leads to a polar amplification of the warming. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO2 levels are necessary to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate, also because the dynamic vegetation model simulates a denser vegetation which is in line with fossil records. However, we do not find a flatter than present-day equator-to-pole temperature gradient as has been suggested by marine and terrestrial proxies. Instead, a compensation between atmospheric and ocean heat transport counteracts the flattening of the temperature gradient. The acclaimed role of the large-scale ocean circulation in redistributing heat cannot be supported by our results. Including full ocean dynamics, therefore, does not solve the problem of the flat temperature gradient during the Middle Miocene.

  11. Black carbon ageing in the Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Croft

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Black carbon (BC particles in the atmosphere have important impacts on climate. The amount of BC in the atmosphere must be carefully quantified to allow evaluation of the climate effects of this type of aerosol. In this study, we present the treatment of BC aerosol in the developmental version of the 4th generation Canadian Centre for Climate modelling and analysis (CCCma atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM. The focus of this work is on the conversion of insoluble BC to soluble/mixed BC by physical and chemical ageing. Physical processes include the condensation of sulphuric and nitric acid onto the BC aerosol, and coagulation with more soluble aerosols such as sulphates and nitrates. Chemical processes that may age the BC aerosol include the oxidation of organic coatings by ozone. Four separate parameterizations of the ageing process are compared to a control simulation that assumes no ageing occurs. These simulations use 1 an exponential decay with a fixed 24h half-life, 2 a condensation and coagulation scheme, 3 an oxidative scheme, and 4 a linear combination of the latter two ageing treatments. Global BC burdens are 2.15, 0.15, 0.11, 0.21, and 0.11TgC for the control run, and four ageing schemes, respectively. The BC lifetimes are 98.1, 6.6, 5.0, 9.5, and 4.9 days, respectively. The sensitivity of modelled BC burdens, and concentrations to the factor of two uncertainty in the emissions inventory is shown to be greater than the sensitivity to the parameterization used to represent the BC ageing, except for the oxidation based parameterization. A computationally efficient parameterization that represents the processes of condensation, coagulation, and oxidation is shown to simulate BC ageing well in the CCCma AGCM. As opposed to the globally fixed ageing time scale, this treatment of BC ageing is responsive to varying atmospheric composition.

  12. Representing the atmospheric boundary layer in climate models of intermediate compexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ronda, R.J.; Haarsma, R.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2003-01-01

    In this study the role of atmospheric boundary layer schemes in climate models is investigated. Including a boundary layer scheme in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) produces only minor differences in the estimated global distribution of sensible and latent heat fluxes over

  13. Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

    2018-03-01

    The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

  14. Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

    2006-02-01

    Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

  15. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  16. Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

    2018-05-01

    A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

  17. Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Msadek, Rym; Frankignoul, Claude [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris (France)

    2009-07-15

    The mechanisms controlling the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and its influence on the atmosphere are investigated using a control simulation with the IPSL-CM4 climate model. The multidecadal fluctuations of the MOC are mostly driven by deep convection in the subpolar gyre, which occurs south of Iceland in the model. The latter is primarily influenced by the anomalous advection of salinity due to changes in the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which is the second mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode, but it plays a secondary role in the MOC fluctuations. During summer, the MOC variability is shown to have a significant impact on the atmosphere in the North Atlantic-European sector. The MOC influence is due to an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with opposite signs in the two hemispheres but largest amplitude in the northern one. The SST pattern driven by the MOC mostly resembles the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and bears some similarity with the observed one. It is shown that the AMO reflects both the MOC influence and the local atmospheric forcing. Hence, the MOC influence on climate is best detected using lagged relations between climatic fields. The atmospheric response resembles the EAP, in a phase that might induce a weak positive feedback on the MOC. (orig.)

  18. Atmospheric statistical dynamic models. Climate experiments: albedo experiments with a zonal atmospheric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.L.; Ellsaesser, H.W.; MacCracken, M.C.; Luther, F.M.

    1978-06-01

    The zonal model experiments with modified surface boundary conditions suggest an initial chain of feedback processes that is largest at the site of the perturbation: deforestation and/or desertification → increased surface albedo → reduced surface absorption of solar radiation → surface cooling and reduced evaporation → reduced convective activity → reduced precipitation and latent heat release → cooling of upper troposphere and increased tropospheric lapse rates → general global cooling and reduced precipitation. As indicated above, although the two experiments give similar overall global results, the location of the perturbation plays an important role in determining the response of the global circulation. These two-dimensional model results are also consistent with three-dimensional model experiments. These results have tempted us to consider the possibility that self-induced growth of the subtropical deserts could serve as a possible mechanism to cause the initial global cooling that then initiates a glacial advance thus activating the positive feedback loop involving ice-albedo feedback (also self-perpetuating). Reversal of the cycle sets in when the advancing ice cover forces the wave-cyclone tracks far enough equatorward to quench (revegetate) the subtropical deserts

  19. The GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Mean Climate and Development from MERRA to Fortuna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molod, Andrea; Takacs, Lawrence; Suarez, Max; Bacmeister, Julio; Song, In-Sun; Eichmann, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    This report is a documentation of the Fortuna version of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The GEOS-5 AGCM is currently in use in the NASA Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) for simulations at a wide range of resolutions, in atmosphere only, coupled ocean-atmosphere, and data assimilation modes. The focus here is on the development subsequent to the version that was used as part of NASA s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We present here the results of a series of 30-year atmosphere-only simulations at different resolutions, with focus on the behavior of the 1-degree resolution simulation. The details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the MERRA model version are outlined, and results of a series of 30-year, atmosphere-only climate simulations at 2-degree resolution are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in parameterizations. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used for the GMAO s atmosphere-only and coupled CMIP-5 simulations.

  20. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-01-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical–ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. - Highlights: • The effects of N atmospheric deposition and climate change on vegetation were simulated. • The model ForSAFE-Veg was calibrated and validated carefully for three forests in France. • Climate has a greater influence on vegetation than N deposition in conifer forests. • N-poor ecosystems are, however, more sensitive to N deposition than to climate change. - Compared to nitrogen atmospheric deposition, climate appears to be the main driver of change in forest plant biodiversity on a century scale, except in N-poor ecosystems.

  1. Modeling pN2 through Geological Time: Implications for Planetary Climates and Atmospheric Biosignatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stüeken, E E; Kipp, M A; Koehler, M C; Schwieterman, E W; Johnson, B; Buick, R

    2016-12-01

    Nitrogen is a major nutrient for all life on Earth and could plausibly play a similar role in extraterrestrial biospheres. The major reservoir of nitrogen at Earth's surface is atmospheric N 2 , but recent studies have proposed that the size of this reservoir may have fluctuated significantly over the course of Earth's history with particularly low levels in the Neoarchean-presumably as a result of biological activity. We used a biogeochemical box model to test which conditions are necessary to cause large swings in atmospheric N 2 pressure. Parameters for our model are constrained by observations of modern Earth and reconstructions of biomass burial and oxidative weathering in deep time. A 1-D climate model was used to model potential effects on atmospheric climate. In a second set of tests, we perturbed our box model to investigate which parameters have the greatest impact on the evolution of atmospheric pN 2 and consider possible implications for nitrogen cycling on other planets. Our results suggest that (a) a high rate of biomass burial would have been needed in the Archean to draw down atmospheric pN 2 to less than half modern levels, (b) the resulting effect on temperature could probably have been compensated by increasing solar luminosity and a mild increase in pCO 2 , and (c) atmospheric oxygenation could have initiated a stepwise pN 2 rebound through oxidative weathering. In general, life appears to be necessary for significant atmospheric pN 2 swings on Earth-like planets. Our results further support the idea that an exoplanetary atmosphere rich in both N 2 and O 2 is a signature of an oxygen-producing biosphere. Key Words: Biosignatures-Early Earth-Planetary atmospheres. Astrobiology 16, 949-963.

  2. Climate and atmospheric research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, G.; Schumacher, R.

    1992-01-01

    This issue of the scientific journal of the Humboldt university is dedicated to results of research work carried out to the greatest extent at the meteorological institute in the last two years on the area of climate and atmospheric research. The traditional research areas of the institute are climatology and the dynamics of the atmosphere, in particular the atmospherical boundary layer. Considering the high probability of a global climatic fluctuation due to the anthropogenic change of composition of the atmosphere and other climate-relevant factors imminent in the next century, climatological research today is an important part of global and regional environmental research. From the necessity of determination and evaluation of the effect of climatic fluctuations on nature and society the contours of a new interdisciplinary research area are already visible now. This is suitable as hardly any other area to be the supporting idea of environmental research at universities. The contributions contained in the issue already consider, in addition to results on climate diagnosis, also results on aspects of climate effect research. (orig./KW) [de

  3. Implementing earth observation and advanced satellite based atmospheric sounders for water resource and climate modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, E.; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses preliminary remote sensing (MODIS) based hydrological modelling results for the Danish island Sjælland (7330 km2) in relation to project objectives and methodologies of a new research project “Implementing Earth observation and advanced satellite based atmospheric sounders....... For this purpose, a) internal catchment processes will be studied using a Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) system, b) Earth observations will be used to upscale from field to regional scales, and c) at the largest scale, satellite based atmospheric sounders and meso-scale climate modelling will be used...

  4. Toward a Unified Representation of Atmospheric Convection in Variable-Resolution Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walko, Robert [Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (United States)

    2016-11-07

    The purpose of this project was to improve the representation of convection in atmospheric weather and climate models that employ computational grids with spatially-variable resolution. Specifically, our work targeted models whose grids are fine enough over selected regions that convection is resolved explicitly, while over other regions the grid is coarser and convection is represented as a subgrid-scale process. The working criterion for a successful scheme for representing convection over this range of grid resolution was that identical convective environments must produce very similar convective responses (i.e., the same precipitation amount, rate, and timing, and the same modification of the atmospheric profile) regardless of grid scale. The need for such a convective scheme has increased in recent years as more global weather and climate models have adopted variable resolution meshes that are often extended into the range of resolving convection in selected locations.

  5. High Resolution Simulations of Future Climate in West Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

    2013-12-01

    In previous work demonstrated the application of a var¬iable-resolution global atmospheric model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), across a wide range of spatial and time scales to investigate the ability of the model to provide realistic simulations of present-day climate and plausible projections of future climate change over sub-Saharan Africa. By applying the model in stretched-grid mode the versatility of the model dynamics, numerical formulation and physical parameterizations to function across a range of length scales over the region of interest, was also explored. We primarily used CCAM to illustrate the capability of the model to function as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. Here we report on additional long term climate projection studies performed by downscaling at much higher resolutions (8 Km) over an area that stretches from just south of Sahara desert to the southern coast of the Niger Delta and into the Gulf of Guinea. To perform these simulations, CCAM was provided with synoptic-scale forcing of atmospheric circulation from 2.5 deg resolution NCEP reanalysis at 6-hourly interval and SSTs from NCEP reanalysis data uses as lower boundary forcing. CCAM 60 Km resolution downscaled to 8 Km (Schmidt factor 24.75) then 8 Km resolution simulation downscaled to 1 Km (Schmidt factor 200) over an area approximately 50 Km x 50 Km in the southern Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Our intent in conducting these high resolution model runs was to obtain a deeper understanding of linkages between the projected future climate and the hydrological processes that control the surface water regime in this part of sub-Saharan Africa.

  6. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  7. Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

    2014-09-08

    This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

  8. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    OpenAIRE

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-01-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...

  9. The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

    2018-04-01

    Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

  10. Parameterization of a bucket model for soil-vegetation-atmosphere modeling under seasonal climatic regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Romano

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the potential impact of accounting for seasonal variations in the climatic forcing and using different methods to parameterize the soil water content at field capacity on the water balance components computed by a bucket model (BM. The single-layer BM of Guswa et al. (2002 is employed, whereas the Richards equation (RE based Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model is used as a benchmark model. The results are analyzed for two differently-textured soils and for some synthetic runs under real-like seasonal weather conditions, using stochastically-generated daily rainfall data for a period of 100 years. Since transient soil-moisture dynamics and climatic seasonality play a key role in certain zones of the World, such as in Mediterranean land areas, a specific feature of this study is to test the prediction capability of the bucket model under a condition where seasonal variations in rainfall are not in phase with the variations in plant transpiration. Reference is made to a hydrologic year in which we have a rainy period (starting 1 November and lasting 151 days where vegetation is basically assumed in a dormant stage, followed by a drier and rainless period with a vegetation regrowth phase. Better agreement between BM and RE-SWAP intercomparison results are obtained when BM is parameterized by a field capacity value determined through the drainage method proposed by Romano and Santini (2002. Depending on the vegetation regrowth or dormant seasons, rainfall variability within a season results in transpiration regimes and soil moisture fluctuations with distinctive features. During the vegetation regrowth season, transpiration exerts a key control on soil water budget with respect to rainfall. During the dormant season of vegetation, the precipitation regime becomes an important climate forcing. Simulations also highlight the occurrence of bimodality in the probability distribution of soil moisture during the season when plants are

  11. Modelling the mid-Pliocene Warm Period climate with the IPSL coupled model and its atmospheric component LMDZ5A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Contoux

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the experimental design and model results of the climate simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ca. 3.3–3 Ma using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace model (IPSLCM5A, in the framework of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP. We use the IPSL atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, and its atmospheric component alone (AGCM, to simulate the climate of the mPWP. Boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, topography, ice-sheet extent and vegetation are derived from the ones imposed by the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP, described in Haywood et al. (2010, 2011. We first describe the IPSL model main features, and then give a full description of the boundary conditions used for atmospheric model and coupled model experiments. The climatic outputs of the mPWP simulations are detailed and compared to the corresponding control simulations. The simulated warming relative to the control simulation is 1.94 °C in the atmospheric and 2.07 °C in the coupled model experiments. In both experiments, warming is larger at high latitudes. Mechanisms governing the simulated precipitation patterns are different in the coupled model than in the atmospheric model alone, because of the reduced gradients in imposed SSTs, which impacts the Hadley and Walker circulations. In addition, a sensitivity test to the change of land-sea mask in the atmospheric model, representing a sea-level change from present-day to 25 m higher during the mid-Pliocene, is described. We find that surface temperature differences can be large (several degrees Celsius but are restricted to the areas that were changed from ocean to land or vice versa. In terms of precipitation, impact on polar regions is minor although the change in land-sea mask is significant in these areas.

  12. Land-atmosphere interaction patterns in southeastern South America using satellite products and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spennemann, P. C.; Salvia, M.; Ruscica, R. C.; Sörensson, A. A.; Grings, F.; Karszenbaum, H.

    2018-02-01

    In regions of strong Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interaction, soil moisture (SM) conditions can impact the atmosphere through modulating the land surface fluxes. The importance of the identification of L-A interaction regions lies in the potential improvement of the weather/seasonal forecast and the better understanding of the physical mechanisms involved. This study aims to compare the terrestrial segment of the L-A interaction from satellite products and climate models, motivated by previous modeling studies pointing out southeastern South America (SESA) as a L-A hotspot during austral summer. In addition, the L-A interaction under dry or wet anomalous conditions over SESA is analyzed. To identify L-A hotspots the AMSRE-LPRM SM and MODIS land surface temperature products; coupled climate models and uncoupled land surface models were used. SESA highlights as a strong L-A interaction hotspot when employing different metrics, temporal scales and independent datasets, showing consistency between models and satellite estimations. Both AMSRE-LPRM bands (X and C) are consistent showing a strong L-A interaction hotspot over the Pampas ecoregion. Intensification and a larger spatial extent of the L-A interaction for dry summers was observed in both satellite products and models compared to wet summers. These results, which were derived from measured physical variables, are encouraging and promising for future studies analyzing L-A interactions. L-A interaction analysis is proposed here as a meeting point between remote sensing and climate modelling communities of Argentina, within a region with the highest agricultural and livestock production of the continent, but with an important lack of in-situ SM observations.

  13. Exploring the Lyapunov instability properties of high-dimensional atmospheric and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cruz, Lesley; Schubert, Sebastian; Demaeyer, Jonathan; Lucarini, Valerio; Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2018-05-01

    The stability properties of intermediate-order climate models are investigated by computing their Lyapunov exponents (LEs). The two models considered are PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere), a primitive-equation simple general circulation model, and MAOOAM (Modular class="text">Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model), a quasi-geostrophic coupled ocean-class="text">atmosphere model on a β-plane. We wish to investigate the effect of the different levels of filtering on the instabilities and dynamics of the atmospheric flows. Moreover, we assess the impact of the oceanic coupling, the dissipation scheme, and the resolution on the spectra of LEs. The PUMA Lyapunov spectrum is computed for two different values of the meridional temperature gradient defining the Newtonian forcing to the temperature field. The increase in the gradient gives rise to a higher baroclinicity and stronger instabilities, corresponding to a larger dimension of the unstable manifold and a larger first LE. The Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor increases as well. The convergence rate of the rate function for the large deviation law of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) is fast for all exponents, which can be interpreted as resulting from the absence of a clear-cut atmospheric timescale separation in such a model. The MAOOAM spectra show that the dominant atmospheric instability is correctly represented even at low resolutions. However, the dynamics of the central manifold, which is mostly associated with the ocean dynamics, is not fully resolved because of its associated long timescales, even at intermediate orders. As expected, increasing the mechanical atmosphere-ocean coupling coefficient or introducing a turbulent diffusion parametrisation reduces the Kaplan-Yorke dimension and Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. In all considered configurations, we are not yet in the regime in which one can robustly define large deviation laws describing the statistics of the FTLEs. This

  14. Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

    2018-01-01

    In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

  15. Short ensembles: an efficient method for discerning climate-relevant sensitivities in atmospheric general circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5. In the first example, the method is used to characterize sensitivities of the simulated clouds to time-step length. Results show that 3-day ensembles of 20 to 50 members are sufficient to reproduce the main signals revealed by traditional 5-year simulations. A nudging technique is applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics–dynamics interaction to the detected time-step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol life cycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to find out which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. It turns out that 12-member ensembles of 10-day simulations are able to reveal the same sensitivities as seen in 4-year simulations performed in a previous study. In both cases, the ensemble method reduces the total computational time by a factor of about 15, and the turnaround time by a factor of several hundred. The efficiency of the method makes it particularly useful for the development of

  16. Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Brovkin, V.; Driesschaert, E.; Wolk, F.

    2005-01-01

    The response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE. Only long-term changes in insolation and atmospheric CO

  17. Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, U.; Santer, B.D.; Hegerl, G.; Hoeck, H.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajwicz, U.; Stoessel, A.; Voss, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Monte Carlo approach, which has increasingly been used during the last decade in the field of extended range weather forecasting, has been applied for climate change experiments. Four integrations with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been started from different initial conditions, but with the same greenhouse gas forcing according to the IPCC scenario A. All experiments have been run for a period of 50 years. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming depends strongly on the initial state of the climate system. It can vary between 6 and 31 years. The Monte Carlo approach delivers information about both the mean response and the statistical significance of the response. While the individual members of the ensemble show a considerable variation in the climate change pattern of temperature after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles the pattern obtained in a 100 year integration and is, at least over most of the land areas, statistically significant. The ensemble averaged sea-level change due to thermal expansion is significant in the global mean and locally over wide regions of the Pacific. The hydrological cycle is also significantly enhanced in the global mean, but locally the changes in precipitation and soil moisture are masked by the variability of the experiments. (orig.)

  18. Simulations of future climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stendel, M.; Schmith, T.; Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.

    2001-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model to study the time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, chlorofluorocarbons and aerosols according to the new IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2 has been used. The results of these experiments are compared to an unforced 300-year control experiment. The changes in the last three decades of the scenario simulations (2071-2100) are furthermore compared to the simulation of present-day climate (1961-1990). In accordance with previous experiments we find that greenhouse warming is reduced when aerosol effects are considered. Sulfur emissions, however, are lower than in the IS92a scenario. Consequently, the greenhouse warming effect, which leads to a bigger temperature increase than in the GSDIO experiment can outweigh the aerosol cooling effect. The result shows that there still are serious difficulties and uncertainties in this type of model simulation. Those are partially due to oversimplifications in the model, concerning the radiative properties of aerosols in particular, and therefore the indirect aerosol effect. Another inherent problem, however, is the uncertainty in the scenarios themselves. This is the case for short-lived substances with an inhomogeneous spatial and temporal distribution, such as aerosols. Therefore, on a decadal horizon, changes in the emissions of those substance can exert a significant effect on anthropogenic climate change. (LN)

  19. Changes in atmospheric variability in a glacial climate and the impacts on proxy data: a model intercomparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. S. R. Pausata

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Using four different climate models, we investigate sea level pressure variability in the extratropical North Atlantic in the preindustrial climate (1750 AD and at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 kyrs before present in order to understand how changes in atmospheric circulation can affect signals recorded in climate proxies.

    In general, the models exhibit a significant reduction in interannual variance of sea level pressure at the LGM compared to pre-industrial simulations and this reduction is concentrated in winter. For the preindustrial climate, all models feature a similar leading mode of sea level pressure variability that resembles the leading mode of variability in the instrumental record: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO. In contrast, the leading mode of sea level pressure variability at the LGM is model dependent, but in each model different from that in the preindustrial climate. In each model, the leading (NAO-like mode of variability explains a smaller fraction of the variance and also less absolute variance at the LGM than in the preindustrial climate.

    The models show that the relationship between atmospheric variability and surface climate (temperature and precipitation variability change in different climates. Results are model-specific, but indicate that proxy signals at the LGM may be misinterpreted if changes in the spatial pattern and seasonality of surface climate variability are not taken into account.

  20. Southern hemisphere climate variability as represented by an ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, A

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available in the atmospheric circulation. The ability of predicting these modes of climate variability on longer timescales is vital. Potential predictability is usually measured as a signal-to-noise contrast between the slowly evolving and chaotic components of the climate...

  1. Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attema, Jisk J; Loriaux, Jessica M; Lenderink, Geert

    2014-01-01

    Observations of extreme (sub-)hourly precipitation at mid-latitudes show a large dependency on the dew point temperature often close to 14% per degree—2 times the dependency of the specific humidity on dew point temperature which is given by the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. By simulating a selection of 11 cases over the Netherlands characterized by intense showers, we investigate this behavior in the non-hydrostatic weather prediction model Harmonie at a resolution of 2.5 km. These experiments are repeated using perturbations of the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity: (i) using an idealized approach with a 2° warmer (colder) atmosphere assuming constant relative humidity, and (ii) using changes in temperature and humidity derived from a long climate change simulation at 2° global warming. All perturbations have a difference in the local dew point temperature compared to the reference of approximately 2°. Differences are considerable between the cases, with dependencies ranging from almost zero to an increase of 18% per degree rise of the dew point temperature. On average however, we find an increase of extreme precipitation intensity of 11% per degree for the idealized perturbation, and 9% per degree for the climate change perturbation. For the most extreme events these dependencies appear to approach a rate of 11–14% per degree, in closer agreement with the observed relation. (paper)

  2. 13. Atmosphere and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mock, G.; Hammond, A.

    1992-01-01

    This chapter reports on past and current trends in the major forms of atmospheric pollution and on the relative contributions of the countries of the world to these emissions. It also reports on emissions of carbon dioxide from industrial processes - principally the combustion of fossil fuels - which is the largest single source of greenhouse gases and an appropriate target for initial efforts to limit emissions. Discussions are presented on the following: urban air pollution - sources, trends and effects (particulates, sulfur dioxide, smog and its precursors, indoor air pollution, carbon monoxide, lead); regional air pollution - sources, trends and effects (acid deposition, ground-level ozone, regional responses and emission trends, acceleration of ozone depletion); solutions (cleaning up stationary sources, corporate responsibility movement, reducing vehicle pollution); global climate treaty talks proceed; greenhouse gas emissions; and targets for limiting emissions

  3. Ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model development at SAWS: description and diagnosis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, A

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the South African Weather Service's coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The paper also demonstrates the advances made in configuring an operational coupled ocean-atmosphere model in South Africa for seasonal forecast production...

  4. Mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM in coupled Ocean- Atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.

    2006-12-01

    On a regional perspective the database of proxy information for South America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shows large and regionally extensive changes of the mean climate and vegetation types over the Amazon basin. In some instances these changes were associated with decrease in the mean precipitation amount (and most probably in moist deep convection) over the Amazonian and South East Brazil monsoon regions and wetter mean conditions in present day drought-prone regions such as Northeast of Brazil (Nordeste). These changes have been interpreted as local responses to shift in the mean position and intensity of the Atlantic ITCZ due to glacial extratropical forcings or to changes in the South American Monsoons. However there are still two issues is the path to further understand the mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM. The first is incomplete knowledge in both the modeling and observational communities of how the moist deep convection over the Amazonian region respond to glacial boundary condition and how this changes might interact with the meridional shift of rainfall over Nordeste and Atlantic Ocean. The second is our understanding of how ocean-atmosphere changes that do occur in the tropical Pacific region influence the climate of the remainder of the planet and on a regional way over South America. Using PMIP-2 coupled Ocean-Atmosphere simulations for LGM and comparison to paleodata we show that hydrological cycle changes over the Amazon basin might be independent of their Atlantic Ocean counterpart, while teleconnections with Pacific Ocean might have played a significant role in the observed changes over tropical South America.

  5. Atmospheric chemistry and climate

    OpenAIRE

    Satheesh, SK

    2012-01-01

    Atmospheric chemistry is a branch of atmospheric science where major focus is the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Knowledge of atmospheric composition is essential due to its interaction with (solar and terrestrial) radiation and interactions of atmospheric species (gaseous and particulate matter) with living organisms. Since atmospheric chemistry covers a vast range of topics, in this article the focus is on the chemistry of atmospheric aerosols with special emphasis on the Indian reg...

  6. Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature annual cycle in the Kiel climate model: simulation benefits from enhancing atmospheric resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wengel, C.; Latif, M.; Park, W.; Harlaß, J.; Bayr, T.

    2018-05-01

    A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue's onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases.

  7. Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version le as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical note. [NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickinson, R.E.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Kennedy, P.J.

    1993-08-01

    A comprehensive model of land-surface processes has been under development suitable for use with various National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Models (GCMs). Special emphasis has been given to describing properly the role of vegetation in modifying the surface moisture and energy budgets. The result of these efforts has been incorporated into a boundary package, referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The current frozen version, BATS1e is a piece of software about four thousand lines of code that runs as an offline version or coupled to the Community Climate Model (CCM).

  8. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  9. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Gleeson, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Livina, V.

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little

  10. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia; Schneider, Birgit; Frolicher, Thomas L.; Segschneider, Joachim; Tjiputra, Jerry; Heinze, Christoph; Joos, Fortunat

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid-latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra-tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra-tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra-tropics and 25% in the southern extra-tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

  11. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: a multi model linear feedback analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Tilla; Bopp, Laurent; Gehlen, Marion; Cadule, Patricia

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO 2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air-sea CO 2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO 2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO 2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate-carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO 2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO 2 uptake into a CO 2 -induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO 2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO 2 uptake in the sub-polar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility; and reduced CO 2 uptake in the mid latitudes, owing to decreased CO 2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extra tropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extra tropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO 2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO 2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO 2 - induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extra tropics and 25% in the southern extra tropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO 2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen. (authors)

  12. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  13. Climate models and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

    1997-12-31

    In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

  14. Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced

  15. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

  16. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 39, 7-8 (2012), s. 1681-1695 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Project s: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265 Grant - others:ENSEMBLES: EU-FP6(XE) 505539 Program:FP6 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Regional climate models * Global climate models * Atmospheric circulation * Surface air temperature * ENSEMBLES * Central Europe Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.231, year: 2012 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-011-1278-8#

  17. The atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model: simulations versus observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Rotstayn, L. D.; Krummel, P. B.

    2002-07-01

    A 5-year simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model (GCM) is compared with detailed boundary-layer observations at six locations, two over the ocean and four over land. Field observations, in the form of surface fluxes and vertical profiles of wind, temperature and humidity, are generally available for each hour over periods of one month or more in a single year. GCM simulations are for specific months corresponding to the field observations, for each of five years. At three of the four land sites (two in Australia, one in south-eastern France), modelled rainfall was close to the observed climatological values, but was significantly in deficit at the fourth (Kansas, USA). Observed rainfall during the field expeditions was close to climatology at all four sites. At the Kansas site, modelled screen temperatures (Tsc), diurnal temperature amplitude and sensible heat flux (H) were significantly higher than observed, with modelled evaporation (E) much lower. At the other three land sites, there is excellent correspondence between the diurnal amplitude and phase and absolute values of each variable (Tsc, H, E). Mean monthly vertical profiles for specific times of the day show strong similarities: over land and ocean in vertical shape and absolute values of variables, and in the mixed-layer and nocturnal-inversion depths (over land) and the height of the elevated inversion or height of the cloud layer (over the sea). Of special interest is the presence climatologically of early morning humidity inversions related to dewfall and of nocturnal low-level jets; such features are found in the GCM simulations. The observed day-to-day variability in vertical structure is captured well in the model for most sites, including, over a whole month, the temperature range at all levels in the boundary layer, and the mix of shallow and deep mixed layers. Weaknesses or unrealistic structure include the following, (a) unrealistic model mixed

  18. Atmospheric water vapor transport: Estimation of continental precipitation recycling and parameterization of a simple climate model. M.S. Thesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brubaker, Kaye L.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

    1991-01-01

    The advective transport of atmospheric water vapor and its role in global hydrology and the water balance of continental regions are discussed and explored. The data set consists of ten years of global wind and humidity observations interpolated onto a regular grid by objective analysis. Atmospheric water vapor fluxes across the boundaries of selected continental regions are displayed graphically. The water vapor flux data are used to investigate the sources of continental precipitation. The total amount of water that precipitates on large continental regions is supplied by two mechanisms: (1) advection from surrounding areas external to the region; and (2) evaporation and transpiration from the land surface recycling of precipitation over the continental area. The degree to which regional precipitation is supplied by recycled moisture is a potentially significant climate feedback mechanism and land surface-atmosphere interaction, which may contribute to the persistence and intensification of droughts. A simplified model of the atmospheric moisture over continents and simultaneous estimates of regional precipitation are employed to estimate, for several large continental regions, the fraction of precipitation that is locally derived. In a separate, but related, study estimates of ocean to land water vapor transport are used to parameterize an existing simple climate model, containing both land and ocean surfaces, that is intended to mimic the dynamics of continental climates.

  19. A reduced order model to analytically infer atmospheric CO2 concentration from stomatal and climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Wilfried; Katul, Gabriel; Roth-Nebelsick, Anita; Grein, Michaela

    2017-06-01

    To address questions related to the acceleration or deceleration of the global hydrological cycle or links between the carbon and water cycles over land, reliable data for past climatic conditions based on proxies are required. In particular, the reconstruction of palaeoatmospheric CO2 content (Ca) is needed to assist the separation of natural from anthropogenic Ca variability and to explore phase relations between Ca and air temperature Ta time series. Both Ta and Ca are needed to fingerprint anthropogenic signatures in vapor pressure deficit, a major driver used to explain acceleration or deceleration phases in the global hydrological cycle. Current approaches to Ca reconstruction rely on a robust inverse correlation between measured stomatal density in leaves (ν) of many plant taxa and Ca. There are two methods that exploit this correlation: The first uses calibration curves obtained from extant species assumed to represent the fossil taxa, thereby restricting the suitable taxa to those existing today. The second is a hybrid eco-hydrological/physiological approach that determines Ca with the aid of systems of equations based on quasi-instantaneous leaf-gas exchange theories and fossil stomatal data collected along with other measured leaf anatomical traits and parameters. In this contribution, a reduced order model (ROM) is proposed that derives Ca from a single equation incorporating the aforementioned stomatal data, basic climate (e.g. temperature), estimated biochemical parameters of assimilation and isotope data. The usage of the ROM is then illustrated by applying it to isotopic and anatomical measurements from three extant species. The ROM derivation is based on a balance between the biochemical demand and atmospheric supply of CO2 that leads to an explicit expression linking stomatal conductance to internal CO2 concentration (Ci) and Ca. The resulting expression of stomatal conductance from the carbon economy of the leaf is then equated to another

  20. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  1. he Impact of Primary Marine Aerosol on Atmospheric Chemistry, Radiation and Climate: A CCSM Model Development Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keene, William C. [University of Virginia; Long, Michael S. [University of Virginia

    2013-05-20

    This project examined the potential large-scale influence of marine aerosol cycling on atmospheric chemistry, physics and radiative transfer. Measurements indicate that the size-dependent generation of marine aerosols by wind waves at the ocean surface and the subsequent production and cycling of halogen-radicals are important but poorly constrained processes that influence climate regionally and globally. A reliable capacity to examine the role of marine aerosol in the global-scale atmospheric system requires that the important size-resolved chemical processes be treated explicitly. But the treatment of multiphase chemistry across the breadth of chemical scenarios encountered throughout the atmosphere is sensitive to the initial conditions and the precision of the solution method. This study examined this sensitivity, constrained it using high-resolution laboratory and field measurements, and deployed it in a coupled chemical-microphysical 3-D atmosphere model. First, laboratory measurements of fresh, unreacted marine aerosol were used to formulate a sea-state based marine aerosol source parameterization that captured the initial organic, inorganic, and physical conditions of the aerosol population. Second, a multiphase chemical mechanism, solved using the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry's MECCA (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere) system, was benchmarked across a broad set of observed chemical and physical conditions in the marine atmosphere. Using these results, the mechanism was systematically reduced to maximize computational speed. Finally, the mechanism was coupled to the 3-mode modal aerosol version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM v3.6.33). Decadal-scale simulations with CAM v.3.6.33, were run both with and without reactive-halogen chemistry and with and without explicit treatment of particulate organic carbon in the marine aerosol source function. Simulated results were interpreted (1) to evaluate influences

  2. Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

    2016-06-01

    A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Forcing of a photochemical air quality model with atmospheric fields simulated by a regional climate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available to the enhanced greenhouse effect (e.g. Engelbrecht et al, 2009). Such changes are likely to influence the future transport and chemistry of air pollutants over the region. The complexity in which climate change may affect regional air quality is evident...

  4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  5. Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

    2009-09-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

  6. Modelling impact of climate change on atmospheric transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Silver, J. D.; Brandt, J.

    2015-03-01

    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Artic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Two sets of simulations were performed, one with initial environmental concentrations from a 20 year spin-up simulation and one with initial environmental concentrations set to zero. Each set of simulations consisted of two ten-year time slices representing the present (1990-2000) and future (2090-2100) climate conditions. The same POP emissions were applied in all simulations to ensure that the difference in predicted concentrations for each set of simulations only arises from the difference in climate input. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 20% higher across the Northern Hemisphere. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 39% higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 14% lower to 17% higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depend on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have predicted that the effect of a changed climate on

  7. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; hide

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  8. The Atmosphere and Climate of Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullock, M. A.; Grinspoon, D. H.

    Venus lies just sunward of the inner edge of the Sun's habitable zone. Liquid water is not stable. Like Earth and Mars, Venus probably accreted at least an ocean's worth of water, although there are alternative scenarios. The loss of this water led to the massive, dry CO2 atmosphere, extensive H2SO4 clouds (at least some of the time), and an intense CO2 greenhouse effect. This chapter describes the current understanding of Venus' atmosphere, established from the data of dozens of spacecraft and atmospheric probe missions since 1962, and by telescopic observations since the nineteenth century. Theoretical work to model the temperature, chemistry, and circulation of Venus' atmosphere is largely based on analogous models developed in the Earth sciences. We discuss the data and modeling used to understand the temperature structure of the atmosphere, as well as its composition, cloud structure, and general circulation. We address what is known and theorized about the origin and early evolution of Venus' atmosphere. It is widely understood that Venus' dense CO2 atmosphere is the ultimate result of the loss of an ocean to space, but the timing of major transitions in Venus' climate is very poorly constrained by the available data. At present, the bright clouds allow only 20% of the sunlight to drive the energy balance and therefore determine conditions at Venus' surface. Like Earth and Mars, differential heating between the equator and poles drives the atmospheric circulation. Condensable species in the atmosphere create clouds and hazes that drive feedbacks that alter radiative forcing. Also in common with Earth and Mars, the loss of light, volatile elements to space produces long-term changes in composition and chemistry. As on Earth, geologic processes are most likely modifying the atmosphere and clouds by injecting gases from volcanos as well as directly through chemical reactions with the surface. The sensitivity of Venus' atmospheric energy balance is quantified in

  9. Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Mogensen, Irene A.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a simulation of the climate of the last five centuries with a state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model are presented. The model has been driven with most relevant forcings, both natural (solar variability, volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic (greenhouse...... gases, sulphate aerosol, land-use changes). In contrast to previous GCM studies, we have taken into account the latitudinal dependence of volcanic aerosol and the changing land cover for a period covering several centuries. We find a clear signature of large volcanic eruptions in the simulated...

  10. Biological production models as elements of coupled, atmosphere-ocean models for climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha

    1991-01-01

    Process models of phytoplankton production are discussed with respect to their suitability for incorporation into global-scale numerical ocean circulation models. Exact solutions are given for integrals over the mixed layer and the day of analytic, wavelength-independent models of primary production. Within this class of model, the bias incurred by using a triangular approximation (rather than a sinusoidal one) to the variation of surface irradiance through the day is computed. Efficient computation algorithms are given for the nonspectral models. More exact calculations require a spectrally sensitive treatment. Such models exist but must be integrated numerically over depth and time. For these integrations, resolution in wavelength, depth, and time are considered and recommendations made for efficient computation. The extrapolation of the one-(spatial)-dimension treatment to large horizontal scale is discussed.

  11. Oblique radiation lateral open boundary conditions for a regional climate atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabos Narvaez, William; De Frutos Redondo, Jose Antonio; Perez Sanz, Juan Ignacio; Sein, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    The prescription of lateral boundary conditions in regional atmospheric models represent a very important issue for limited area models. The ill-posed nature of the open boundary conditions makes it necessary to devise schemes in order to filter spurious wave reflections at boundaries, being desirable to have one boundary condition per variable. On the other side, due to the essentially hyperbolic nature of the equations solved in state of the art atmospheric models, external data is required only for inward boundary fluxes. These circumstances make radiation lateral boundary conditions a good choice for the filtering of spurious wave reflections. Here we apply the adaptive oblique radiation modification proposed by Mikoyada and Roseti to each of the prognostic variables of the REMO regional atmospheric model and compare it to the more common normal radiation condition used in REMO. In the proposed scheme, special attention is paid to the estimation of the radiation phase speed, essential to detecting the direction of boundary fluxes. One of the differences with the classical scheme is that in case of outward propagation, the adaptive nudging imposed in the boundaries allows to minimize under and over specifications problems, adequately incorporating the external information.

  12. Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Silver, J. D.; Brandt, J.

    2015-06-01

    The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one with present day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initial environmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but with initial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation. Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representing the present (1990-2000) and future (2090-2100) climate conditions. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model

  13. Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonnell, T.C.; Belyazid, S.; Sullivan, T.J.; Sverdrup, H.; Bowman, W.D.; Porter, E.M.

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010–2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha −1  yr −1 . Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. - Highlights: • A novel calibration step was introduced for modeling biodiversity with ForSAFE-Veg. • Modeled increases in tree cover are consistent with empirical studies. • Reductions in N deposition decreased future graminoid percent cover. • Critical loads of N to protect biodiversity should consider climate change effects. - Subalpine plant biodiversity in Rocky Mountain National Park has already been impacted by N deposition and climate change and is expected to experience significant future effects

  14. Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Done, J.; Ge, M.

    2017-12-01

    How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.

  15. Large-eddy simulation of stable atmospheric boundary layers to develop better turbulence closures for climate and weather models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Zeid, Elie; Huang, Jing; Golaz, Jean-Christophe

    2011-11-01

    A disconnect remains between our improved physical understanding of boundary layers stabilized by buoyancy and how we parameterize them in coarse atmospheric models. Most operational climate models require excessive turbulence mixing in such conditions to prevent decoupling of the atmospheric component from the land component, but the performance of such a model is unlikely to be satisfactory under weakly and moderately stable conditions. Using Large-eddy simulation, we revisit some of the basic challenges in parameterizing stable atmospheric boundary layers: eddy-viscosity closure is found to be more reliable due to an improved alignment of vertical Reynolds stresses and mean strains under stable conditions, but the dependence of the magnitude of the eddy viscosity on stability is not well represented by several models tested here. Thus, we propose a new closure that reproduces the different stability regimes better. Subsequently, tests of this model in the GFDL's single-column model (SCM) are found to yield good agreement with LES results in idealized steady-stability cases, as well as in cases with gradual and sharp changes of stability with time.

  16. Exploring clouds, weather, climate, and modeling using bilingual content and activities from the Windows to the Universe program and the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, S. Q.; Johnson, R. M.; Randall, D.; Denning, S.; Russell, R.; Gardiner, L.; Hatheway, B.; Genyuk, J.; Bergman, J.

    2008-12-01

    The need for improving the representation of cloud processes in climate models has been one of the most important limitations of the reliability of climate-change simulations. Now in its third year, the National Science Foundation-funded Center for Multi-scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) at Colorado State University is addressing this problem through a revolutionary new approach to representing cloud processes on their native scales, including the cloud-scale interaction processes that are active in cloud systems. CMMAP has set ambitious education and human-resource goals to share basic information about the atmosphere, clouds, weather, climate, and modeling with diverse K-12 and public audiences through its affiliation with the Windows to the Universe (W2U) program at University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). W2U web pages are written at three levels in English and Spanish. This information targets learners at all levels, educators, and families who seek to understand and share resources and information about the nature of weather and the climate system, and career role models from related research fields. This resource can also be helpful to educators who are building bridges in the classroom between the sciences, the arts, and literacy. Visitors to the W2U's CMMAP web portal can access a beautiful new clouds image gallery; information about each cloud type and the atmospheric processes that produce them; a Clouds in Art interactive; collections of weather-themed poetry, art, and myths; links to games and puzzles for children; and extensive classroom- ready resources and activities for K-12 teachers. Biographies of CMMAP scientists and graduate students are featured. Basic science concepts important to understanding the atmosphere, such as condensation, atmosphere pressure, lapse rate, and more have been developed, as well as 'microworlds' that enable students to interact with experimental tools while building fundamental knowledge

  17. Nudging technique for scale bridging in air quality/climate atmospheric composition modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Maurizi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The interaction between air quality and climate involves dynamical scales that cover a very wide range. Bridging these scales in numerical simulations is fundamental in studies devoted to megacity/hot-spot impacts on larger scales. A technique based on nudging is proposed as a bridging method that can couple different models at different scales.

    Here, nudging is used to force low resolution chemical composition models with a run of a high resolution model on a critical area. A one-year numerical experiment focused on the Po Valley hot spot is performed using the BOLCHEM model to asses the method.

    The results show that the model response is stable to perturbation induced by the nudging and that, taking the high resolution run as a reference, performances of the nudged run increase with respect to the non-forced run. The effect outside the forcing area depends on transport and is significant in a relevant number of events although it becomes weak on seasonal or yearly basis.

  18. The Martian climate and energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffert, M. I.

    1986-01-01

    The analysis begins with a seasonal energy balance model (EBM) for Mars. This is used to compute surface temperature versus x = sin(latitude) and time over the seasonal cycle. The core model also computes the evolving boundaries of the CO2 icecaps, net sublimational/condensation rates, and the resulting seasonal pressure wave. Model results are compared with surface temperature and pressure history data at Viking lander sites, indicating fairly good agreement when meridional heat transport is represented by a thermal diffusion coefficient D approx. 0.015 W/sq. m/K. Condensational wind distributions are also computed. An analytic model of Martian wind circulation is then proposed, as an extension of the EMB, which incorporates vertical wind profiles containing an x-dependent function evaluated by substitution in the equation defining the diffusion coefficient. This leads to a parameterization of D(x) and of the meridional circulation which recovers the high surface winds predicted by dynamic Mars atmosphere models (approx. 10 m/sec). Peak diffusion coefficients, D approx. 0.6 w/sq m/K, are found over strong Hadley zones - some 40 times larger than those of high-latitude baroclinic eddies. When the wind parameterization is used to find streamline patterns over Martian seasons, the resulting picture shows overturning hemispheric Hadley cells crossing the equator during solstices, and attaining peak intensities during the south summer dust storm season, while condensational winds are most important near the polar caps.

  19. The role of soil moisture in land surface-atmosphere coupling: climate model sensitivity experiments over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Charles; Turner, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    It is generally acknowledged that anthropogenic land use changes, such as a shift from forested land into irrigated agriculture, may have an impact on regional climate and, in particular, rainfall patterns in both time and space. India provides an excellent example of a country in which widespread land use change has occurred during the last century, as the country tries to meet its growing demand for food. Of primary concern for agriculture is the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which displays considerable seasonal and subseasonal variability. Although it is evident that changing rainfall variability will have a direct impact on land surface processes (such as soil moisture variability), the reverse impact is less well understood. However, the role of soil moisture in the coupling between the land surface and atmosphere needs to be properly explored before any potential impact of changing soil moisture variability on ISM rainfall can be understood. This paper attempts to address this issue, by conducting a number of sensitivity experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM2. Several experiments are undertaken, with the only difference between them being the extent to which soil moisture is coupled to the atmosphere. Firstly, the land surface is fully coupled to the atmosphere, globally (as in standard model configurations); secondly, the land surface is entirely uncoupled from the atmosphere, again globally, with soil moisture values being prescribed on a daily basis; thirdly, the land surface is uncoupled from the atmosphere over India but fully coupled elsewhere; and lastly, vice versa (i.e. the land surface is coupled to the atmosphere over India but uncoupled elsewhere). Early results from this study suggest certain 'hotspot' regions where the impact of soil moisture coupling/uncoupling may be important, and many of these regions coincide with previous studies. Focusing on the third experiment, i

  20. How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-02-01

    During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

  1. Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Stevenson

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Ozone (O3 from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs. All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750 to present-day (2010 tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44±12%, nitrogen oxides (31 ± 9%, carbon monoxide (15 ± 3% and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 ± 2%; earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m−2; relative to 1750 for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030, and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100. Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change

  2. Modeling the response of forest isoprene emissions to future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in climate (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, R. K.; Heald, C. L.; Guenther, A. B.; Wilkinson, M.

    2009-12-01

    Isoprene emissions from plants to the atmosphere are sensitive to changes in temperature, light and atmospheric CO2 concentration in both the short- (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (hours-to-months). We now understand that the different time constants for these responses are due to controls by different sets of biochemical and physiological processes n leaves. Progress has been made in the past few years toward converting this process-level understanding into quantitative models. In this talk, we consider this progress with special emphasis on the short- and long-term responses to atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. A new biochemically-based model is presented for describing the CO2 responses, and the model is deployed in a global context to predict interactions between the influences of temperature and CO2 on the global isoprene emission rate. The model is based on the theory of enzyme-substrate kinetics, particularly with regard to those reactions that produce puruvate or glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate, the two chloroplastic substrates for isoprene biosynthesis. In the global model, when we accounted for CO2 inhibition of isoprene emission in the long-term response, we observed little impact on present-day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr-1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions predicted from past models which are due to a projected warmer climate, were entirely offset by including the CO2 effects. The isoprene emission response to CO2 was dominated by the long-term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less from the short-term effect. We use this analysis as a framework for grounding future global models of isoprene emission in biochemical and physiological observations.

  3. DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, Hugh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2012-11-12

    This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their adviser).

  4. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Abdel Kader, M.; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-11-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others). The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70-75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions). Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

  5. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Astitha

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry. One uses a globally uniform soil particle size distribution, whereas the other explicitly accounts for different soil textures worldwide. We have tested these two versions and investigated the sensitivity to input parameters, using remote sensing data from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET and dust concentrations and deposition measurements from the AeroCom dust benchmark database (and others. The two versions are shown to produce similar atmospheric dust loads in the N-African region, while they deviate in the Asian, Middle Eastern and S-American regions. The dust outflow from Africa over the Atlantic Ocean is accurately simulated by both schemes, in magnitude, location and seasonality. Approximately 70% of the modelled annual deposition data and 70–75% of the modelled monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD in the Atlantic Ocean stations lay in the range 0.5 to 2 times the observations for all simulations. The two versions have similar performance, even though the total annual source differs by ~50%, which underscores the importance of transport and deposition processes (being the same for both versions. Even though the explicit soil particle size distribution is considered more realistic, the simpler scheme appears to perform better in several locations. This paper discusses the differences between the two versions of the dust emission scheme, focusing on their limitations and strengths in describing the global dust cycle and suggests possible future improvements.

  6. Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

    2018-02-01

    We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

  7. Climate of the upper atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Jacobi

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available

    In the frame of the European COST 296 project (Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems, MIERS

    investigations of the climate of the upper atmosphere have been carried out during the last four years to obtain

    new information on the upper atmosphere. Mainly its ionospheric part has been analysed as the ionosphere

    most essential for the propagation of radio waves. Due to collaboration between different European partners

    many new results have been derived in the fields of long-term trends of different ionospheric and related atmospheric

    parameters, the investigations of different types of atmospheric waves and their impact on the ionosphere,

    the variability of the ionosphere, and the investigation of some space weather effects on the ionosphere.


  8. Modeling Martian Atmospheric Losses over Time: Implications for Exoplanetary Climate Evolution and Habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chuanfei; Lee, Yuni; Ma, Yingjuan; Lingam, Manasvi; Bougher, Stephen; Luhmann, Janet; Curry, Shannon; Toth, Gabor; Nagy, Andrew; Tenishev, Valeriy; Fang, Xiaohua; Mitchell, David; Brain, David; Jakosky, Bruce

    2018-05-01

    In this Letter, we make use of sophisticated 3D numerical simulations to assess the extent of atmospheric ion and photochemical losses from Mars over time. We demonstrate that the atmospheric ion escape rates were significantly higher (by more than two orders of magnitude) in the past at ∼4 Ga compared to the present-day value owing to the stronger solar wind and higher ultraviolet fluxes from the young Sun. We found that the photochemical loss of atomic hot oxygen dominates over the total ion loss at the current epoch, while the atmospheric ion loss is likely much more important at ancient times. We briefly discuss the ensuing implications of high atmospheric ion escape rates in the context of ancient Mars, and exoplanets with similar atmospheric compositions around young solar-type stars and M-dwarfs.

  9. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plavcova, Eva; Kysely, Jan

    2012-01-01

    The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for

  10. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plavcova, Eva [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague 4 (Czech Republic); Technical University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Liberec (Czech Republic); Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague (Czech Republic); Kysely, Jan [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague 4 (Czech Republic); Technical University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Liberec (Czech Republic)

    2012-10-15

    The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for

  11. Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

  12. Resolving uncertainties in the urban air quality, climate, and vegetation nexus through citizen science, satellite imagery, and atmospheric modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ripplinger, J.; Koutzoukis, S.; Ge, C.; Castro Garcia, L.; Kucera, D.; Liu, X.

    2017-12-01

    Large uncertainties remain in identifying the distribution of urban air quality and temperature risks across neighborhood to regional scales. Nevertheless, many cities are actively expanding vegetation with an expectation to moderate both climate and air quality risks. We address these uncertainties through an integrated analysis of satellite data, atmospheric modeling, and in-situ environmental sensor networks maintained by citizen scientists. During the summer of 2017 we deployed neighborhood-scale networks of air temperature and ozone sensors through three campaigns across urbanized southern California. During each five-week campaign we deployed six sensor nodes that included an EPA federal equivalent method ozone sensor and a suite of meteorological sensors. Each node was further embedded in a network of 100 air temperature sensors that combined a randomized design developed by the research team and a design co-created by citizen scientists. Between 20 and 60 citizen scientists were recruited for each campaign, with local partners supporting outreach and training to ensure consistent deployment and data gathering. We observed substantial variation in both temperature and ozone concentrations at scales less than 4km, whole city, and the broader southern California region. At the whole city scale the average spatial variation with our ozone sensor network just for city of Long Beach was 26% of the mean, while corresponding variation in air temperature was only 7% of the mean. These findings contrast with atmospheric model estimates of variation at the regional scale of 11% and 1%. Our results show the magnitude of fine-scale variation underestimated by current models and may also suggest scaling functions that can connect neighborhood and regional variation in both ozone and temperature risks in southern California. By engaging citizen science with high quality sensors, satellite data, and real-time forecasting, our results help identify magnitudes of climate and

  13. Effect of Mars Atmospheric Loss on Snow Melt Potential in a 3.5 Gyr Mars Climate Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Megan; Kite, Edwin S.; Mischna, Michael A.

    2018-04-01

    Post-Noachian Martian paleochannels indicate the existence of liquid water on the surface of Mars after about 3.5 Gya (Irwin et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.012; Palucis et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JE004905). In order to explore the effects of variations in CO2 partial pressure and obliquity on the possibility of surface water, we created a zero-dimensional surface energy balance model. We combine this model with physically consistent orbital histories to track conditions over the last 3.5 Gyr of Martian history. We find that melting is allowed for atmospheric pressures corresponding to exponential loss rates of dP/dt∝t-3.73 or faster, but this rate is within 0.5σ of the rate calculated from initial measurements made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, if we assume all the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from atmospheric CO2 (Lillis et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023525; Tu et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201526146). Melting at this loss rate matches selected key geologic constraints on the formation of Hesperian river networks, assuming optimal melt conditions during the warmest part of each Mars year (Irwin et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.012; Kite, Gao, et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3033; Kite, Sneed et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072660; Stopar et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2006.07.039). The atmospheric pressure has a larger effect on the surface energy than changes in Mars's mean obliquity. These results show that initial measurements of atmosphere loss by MAVEN are consistent with atmospheric loss being the dominant process that switched Mars from a melt-permitting to a melt-absent climate (Jakosky et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aai7721), but non-CO2 warming will be required if <2 Gya paleochannels are confirmed or if most of the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from H2O.

  14. Impact of absorbing aerosols on the simulation of climate over the Indian region in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chakraborty

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (such as soot on the climate over the Indian region has been studied using the NCMRWF general circulation model. The absorbing aerosols increase shortwave radiative heating of the lower troposphere and reduce the heating at the surface. These effects have been incorporated as heating of the lower troposphere (up to 700hPa and cooling over the continental surface based on INDOEX measurements. The heating effect is constant in the pre-monsoon season and reduces to zero during the monsoon season. It is shown that even in the monsoon season when the aerosol forcing is zero, there is an overall increase in rainfall and a reduction in surface temperature over the Indian region. The rainfall averaged over the Tropics shows a small reduction in most of the months during the January to September period. The impact of aerosol forcing, the model's sensitivity to this forcing and its interaction with model-physics has been studied by changing the cumulus parameterization from the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS scheme to the Kuo scheme. During the pre-monsoon season the major changes in precipitation occur in the oceanic Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, where both the schemes show an increase in precipitation. This result is similar to that reported in Chung2002. On the other hand, during the monsoon season the changes in precipitation in the continental region are different in the SAS and Kuo schemes. It is shown that the heating due to absorbing aerosols changes the vertical moist-static stability of the atmosphere. The difference in the precipitation changes in the two cumulus schemes is on account of the different responses in the two parameterization schemes to changes in vertical stability. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (tropical meteorology; precipitation

  15. Immersion freezing by natural dust based on a soccer ball model with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5: climate effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong

    2014-12-01

    We introduce a simplified version of the soccer ball model (SBM) developed by Niedermeier et al (2014 Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 736-741) into the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). It is the first time that SBM is used in an atmospheric model to parameterize the heterogeneous ice nucleation. The SBM, which was simplified for its suitable application in atmospheric models, uses the classical nucleation theory to describe the immersion/condensation freezing by dust in the mixed-phase cloud regime. Uncertain parameters (mean contact angle, standard deviation of contact angle probability distribution, and number of surface sites) in the SBM are constrained by fitting them to recent natural dust (Saharan dust) datasets. With the SBM in CAM5, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud properties to the SBM parameters, and find significant seasonal and regional differences in the sensitivity among the three SBM parameters. Changes of mean contact angle and the number of surface sites lead to changes of cloud properties in Arctic in spring, which could be attributed to the transport of dust ice nuclei to this region. In winter, significant changes of cloud properties induced by these two parameters mainly occur in northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (e.g., East Asia). In comparison, no obvious changes of cloud properties caused by changes of standard deviation can be found in all the seasons. These results are valuable for understanding the heterogeneous ice nucleation behavior, and useful for guiding the future model developments.

  16. Immersion freezing by natural dust based on a soccer ball model with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5: climate effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a simplified version of the soccer ball model (SBM) developed by Niedermeier et al (2014 Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 736–741) into the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). It is the first time that SBM is used in an atmospheric model to parameterize the heterogeneous ice nucleation. The SBM, which was simplified for its suitable application in atmospheric models, uses the classical nucleation theory to describe the immersion/condensation freezing by dust in the mixed-phase cloud regime. Uncertain parameters (mean contact angle, standard deviation of contact angle probability distribution, and number of surface sites) in the SBM are constrained by fitting them to recent natural dust (Saharan dust) datasets. With the SBM in CAM5, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud properties to the SBM parameters, and find significant seasonal and regional differences in the sensitivity among the three SBM parameters. Changes of mean contact angle and the number of surface sites lead to changes of cloud properties in Arctic in spring, which could be attributed to the transport of dust ice nuclei to this region. In winter, significant changes of cloud properties induced by these two parameters mainly occur in northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (e.g., East Asia). In comparison, no obvious changes of cloud properties caused by changes of standard deviation can be found in all the seasons. These results are valuable for understanding the heterogeneous ice nucleation behavior, and useful for guiding the future model developments. (letter)

  17. GLOBE Atmosphere and AMS Diversity Program Content to Foster Weather and Climate Science Awareness at HBCUs: A Curriculum Enhancement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padgett, D.

    2017-12-01

    Tennessee State University (TSU) is a member of the "Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Mission Earth" project. The World Regional Geography (GEOG 1010/1020) courses are required for Education majors. Pre-service teachers must complete several exercises to be certified in the GLOBE Atmosphere Protocols. The pre-service teachers are required to develop GLOBE-based lessons to high school students. The exercise theme is "Exploring the Impacts of Urban Heat Islands (UHI) using Geospatial Technology." Surface temperature, ambient air temperature, and cloud cover data are collected. Sample point locations are logged using Garmin GPS receivers and then mapped using ArcGIS Online (http://arcg.is/1oiD379). The service learning outreach associated with this experience requires collegians to thoroughly understand the physical, social, and health science content associated with UHIs and then impart the information to younger learners. The precollegiate students are motivated due to their closeness in age and social context to the college students. All of the students have the advantage of engaging in hands-on problem-based learning of complex meteorology, climate science, and geospatial technology concepts. The optimal result is to have pre-service teachers enroll in the Weather and Climate (GEOG 3500) course, which is supported by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Studies Curriculum. Tennessee State University faculty have completed training to deliver the curriculum through the AMS Diversity Program. The AMS Weather Studies and Climate Studies programs have been institutionalized at Tennessee State University (TSU) since fall 2005. Approximately 250 undergraduate students have been exposed to the interactive AMS learning materials over the past 10-plus years. Non-STEM, and education majors are stimulated by the real-time course content and are encouraged to think critically about atmospheric systems science, and

  18. Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two sets of global climate model experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Msadek, Rym; Kwon, Young-Oh; Booth, James F.; Zarzycki, Colin

    2018-05-01

    It has been hypothesized that the ocean mesoscale (particularly ocean fronts) can affect the strength and location of the overlying extratropical atmospheric storm track. In this paper, we examine whether resolving ocean fronts in global climate models indeed leads to significant improvement in the simulated storm track, defined using low level meridional wind. Two main sets of experiments are used: (i) global climate model Community Earth System Model version 1 with non-eddy-resolving standard resolution or with ocean eddy-resolving resolution, and (ii) the same but with the GFDL Climate Model version 2. In case (i), it is found that higher ocean resolution leads to a reduction of a very warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the east coasts of the U.S. and Japan seen in standard resolution models. This in turn leads to a reduction of storm track strength near the coastlines, by up to 20%, and a better location of the storm track maxima, over the western boundary currents as observed. In case (ii), the change in absolute SST bias in these regions is less notable, and there are modest (10% or less) increases in surface storm track, and smaller changes in the free troposphere. In contrast, in the southern Indian Ocean, case (ii) shows most sensitivity to ocean resolution, and this coincides with a larger change in mean SST as ocean resolution is changed. Where the ocean resolution does make a difference, it consistently brings the storm track closer in appearance to that seen in ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. Overall, for the range of ocean model resolutions used here (1° versus 0.1°) we find that the differences in SST gradient have a small effect on the storm track strength whilst changes in absolute SST between experiments can have a larger effect. The latter affects the land-sea contrast, air-sea stability, surface latent heat flux, and the boundary layer baroclinicity in such a way as to reduce storm track activity adjacent to the western boundary in the N

  19. Comparison of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model against in situ and SCIAMACHY atmospheric methane data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D. Hayman

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Wetlands are a major emission source of methane (CH4 globally. In this study, we evaluate wetland emission estimates derived using the UK community land surface model (JULES, the Joint UK Land Earth Simulator against atmospheric observations of methane, including, for the first time, total methane columns derived from the SCIAMACHY instrument on board the ENVISAT satellite. Two JULES wetland emission estimates are investigated: (a from an offline run driven with Climatic Research Unit–National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRU-NCEP meteorological data and (b from the same offline run in which the modelled wetland fractions are replaced with those derived from the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS remote sensing product. The mean annual emission assumed for each inventory (181 Tg CH4 per annum over the period 1999–2007 is in line with other recently published estimates. There are regional differences as the unconstrained JULES inventory gives significantly higher emissions in the Amazon (by ~36 Tg CH4 yr−1 and lower emissions in other regions (by up to 10 Tg CH4 yr−1 compared to the JULES estimates constrained with the GIEMS product. Using the UK Hadley Centre's Earth System model with atmospheric chemistry (HadGEM2, we evaluate these JULES wetland emissions against atmospheric observations of methane. We obtain improved agreement with the surface concentration measurements, especially at high northern latitudes, compared to previous HadGEM2 runs using the wetland emission data set of Fung et al. (1991. Although the modelled monthly atmospheric methane columns reproduce the large-scale patterns in the SCIAMACHY observations, they are biased low by 50 part per billion by volume (ppb. Replacing the HadGEM2 modelled concentrations above 300 hPa with HALOE–ACE assimilated TOMCAT output results in a significantly better agreement with the SCIAMACHY observations. The use of the GIEMS product to constrain the JULES

  20. Long-term climate: interpretation of the Vostok Antarctica drilling data, development of a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genthon, Christophe

    1988-01-01

    In a first part of the dissertation, data related to the evolution of the Earth climate and environment are analysed in order to elucidate some possible mechanisms of climatic transition on the time scale of the recent Pleistocene glacial to interglacial cycles. The Vostok (East Antarctica) temperature and the carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration (global) profiles, obtained on a time range of ∼160000 years from analysing a deep ice core drilled at Vostok are the basis of this study. A simple model for statistically reconstructing the temperature profile is implemented, the input functions of which are selected from hypotheses on the forcing of the climate at Vostok. These hypotheses are supported by the presence of the astronomical theory of paleo-climate's characteristic spectral bands in the two signals, by the high correlation between the variations of temperature with that of CO 2 , and by the fair coherence of these records with other paleo-climatic series from ocean sediment cores. An important contribution of the thermal greenhouse effect of CO 2 is suggested through this approach, in reasonable agreement with results obtained by other researchers using general circulation models. We also describe a dynamical model of the atmosphere which uses the zonally averaged primitive equations. This model is being developed as part of a project on modelling the globally coupled climatic System (atmosphere, ocean, cryo-sphere). For both the dynamical and diabatic physical parts, it is a reduction to two dimensions (latitude and altitude) of a general circulation atmospheric model. The large scale turbulence of the middle and high latitudes cannot be resolved with such a configuration: we describe parametrizations of the transports of sensible and latent heat by the baro-clinic eddies, and a preliminary study of the transport of momentum. These parametrizations make use of the mixing length theory, the mixing coefficients being determined from the local

  1. Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Markus Meier

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3 driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980-2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model's response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980-2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961-2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.

  2. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; McConnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; Shaw, M.; Vet, R.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  3. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: A multi-model linear feedback analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Tilla; Bopp Laurent; Gehlen Marion; Schneider Birgitt; Cadule Patricia; Frölicher Thomas; Segschneider Jochen; Tijputra Jerry; Heinze Christoph; Joos Fortunat

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air–sea CO2 uptake which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO2 itself and climate change. Here the future oceanic CO2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully sep...

  4. Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Dentener, Frank; McConnell, J.R.; Ro, C-U; Shaw, Mark; Vet, Robert; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, David; Shindell, Drew; Skeie, R. B.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Zeng, G.; Curran, M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.; Das, S.; Fritzsche, D.; Nolan, M.

    2013-08-20

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States, but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mgN/m2/yr averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, ~30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (2000). Despite known issues, the new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

  5. Ecosystem feedbacks to climate change in California: Development, testing, and analysis using a coupled regional atmosphere and land-surface model (WRF3-CLM3.5)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Z.M.; Riley, W.J.; Kueppers, L.M.; Jin, J.; Christianson, D.S.; Torn, M.S.

    2010-11-01

    A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California's climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California's climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3-CLM3.5 and WRF3-Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3-CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of -0.7 to +1 C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2-1.2 C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0-3.7 C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those

  6. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Management Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mather, James [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    Mission and Vision Statements for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Mission The ARM Climate Research Facility, a DOE scientific user facility, provides the climate research community with strategically located in situ and remote-sensing observatories designed to improve the understanding and representation, in climate and earth system models, of clouds and aerosols as well as their interactions and coupling with the Earth’s surface. Vision To provide a detailed and accurate description of the Earth atmosphere in diverse climate regimes to resolve the uncertainties in climate and Earth system models toward the development of sustainable solutions for the nation's energy and environmental challenges.

  7. A nested modeling study of elevation-dependent climate change signals in California induced by increased atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jinwon

    2001-01-01

    Dynamically downscaled climate change signals due to increased atmospheric CO2 are investigated for three California basins. The downscaled signals show strong elevation dependence, mainly due to elevated freezing levels in the increased CO2 climate. Below 2.5 km, rainfall increases by over 150% while snowfall decreases by 20-40% in the winter. Above 2.5 km, rainfall and snowfall both increase in the winter, as the freezing levels appear mostly below this level. Winter snowmelt increases in all elevations due to warmer temperatures in the increased CO2 climate. Reduced snowfall and enhanced snowmelt during the winter decreases snowmelt-driven spring runoff below the 2.5 km level, where the peak snowmelt occurs one month earlier in the increased CO2 climate. Above 2.5km, increased winter snowfall maintains snowmelt-driven runoff through most of the warm season. The altered hydrologic characteristics in the increased CO2 climate affect the diurnal temperature variation mainly via snow-albedo-soil moisture feedback

  8. Toward a minimal representation of aerosols in climate models: description and evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Liu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A modal aerosol module (MAM has been developed for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5, the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1. MAM is capable of simulating the aerosol size distribution and both internal and external mixing between aerosol components, treating numerous complicated aerosol processes and aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties in a physically-based manner. Two MAM versions were developed: a more complete version with seven lognormal modes (MAM7, and a version with three lognormal modes (MAM3 for the purpose of long-term (decades to centuries simulations. In this paper a description and evaluation of the aerosol module and its two representations are provided. Sensitivity of the aerosol lifecycle to simplifications in the representation of aerosol is discussed.

    Simulated sulfate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA mass concentrations are remarkably similar between MAM3 and MAM7. Differences in primary organic matter (POM and black carbon (BC concentrations between MAM3 and MAM7 are also small (mostly within 10%. The mineral dust global burden differs by 10% and sea salt burden by 30–40% between MAM3 and MAM7, mainly due to the different size ranges for dust and sea salt modes and different standard deviations of the log-normal size distribution for sea salt modes between MAM3 and MAM7. The model is able to qualitatively capture the observed geographical and temporal variations of aerosol mass and number concentrations, size distributions, and aerosol optical properties. However, there are noticeable biases; e.g., simulated BC concentrations are significantly lower than measurements in the Arctic. There is a low bias in modeled aerosol optical depth on the global scale, especially in the developing countries. These biases in aerosol simulations clearly indicate the need for improvements of aerosol processes (e.g., emission fluxes of anthropogenic aerosols and

  9. Modeling glacial climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

    1984-01-01

    Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

  10. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in Europe using two empirical modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbertin, M.; Solberg, S.; Laubhann, D.; Sterba, H.; Reinds, G. J.; de Vries, W.

    2009-04-01

    growth models, values for the various models ranged between 16 and 24 kg (mean 19 kg) carbon uptake per kg nitrogen deposition. Both approaches, although being very different and using a different set of plots and different methods to estimate the N induced carbon uptake in stem wood resulted in very similar results. In summary, our results indicate a clear fertilization effect of N deposition on European forests, mainly on sites with high C/N soil ratios. It is in line with approaches focused on the fate of N in forest ecosystems and with results of N fertilizer experiments but much smaller than had recently been reported in other field studies (De Vries et al., 2008). Increasing temperature was also found to have a positive influence on forest growth, but this effect seemed to be less clear. References: De Vries W., Solberg S., Dobbertin M., Sterba H., Laubhahn D., Reinds G.J., Nabuurs G.-J., Gundersen P. (2008) Ecologically implausible carbon response. Nature, 451, E1-E3. Laubhann, D., Sterba H., Reinds, G.J., de Vries, W. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: An individual tree growth model. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.050. Solberg, S., Dobbertin, M., Reinds, G.J., Lange, H., Andreassen, K., Garcia Fernandez, P., Hildingsson, A., de Vries, W. Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach. For. Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.057.

  11. The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yanase

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The surface conditions and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific during the last glacial maximum have been investigated using outputs from several coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in the PMIP2 database. During the boreal summer, the weakening of the high pressure system over the North Pacific and less precipitation over East Asia are found in most models. The latter can be attributed to reduced moisture transport. During the boreal winter, an intensification of the Aleutian low and southward shift of the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere are found in most models.

    Some of the results in the present study seem to be consistent with the paleoclimatic reconstructions in the previous studies: pollen and lake-status records suggest dry climate over East Asia during the last glacial maximum, and part of the dust record has a signal that the East Asian winter monsoon was more strong and the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere was further south during the last glacial maximum than at the present day. This result confirms that a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is a promising tool to understand not only the global climate but also the regional climate in the past.

  12. Chemical effects in 11-year solar cycle simulations with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with online chemistry (FUB-CMAM-CHEM)

    OpenAIRE

    U. Langematz; J. Grenfell; K. Matthes; P. Mieth; M. Kunze; B. Steil; C. Brühl;  

    2005-01-01

    The impact of 11-year solar cycle variations on stratospheric ozone (O3) is studied with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with interactive chemistry (FUB-CMAM-CHEM). To consider the effect of variations in charged particle precipitation we included an idealized NO x source in the upper mesosphere representing relativistic electron precipitation (REP). Our results suggest that the NO x source by particles and its transport from the mesosphere to the stratosphe...

  13. Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Description and Evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Shi, Xiangjun; Lamarque, J.-F.; Gettelman, A.; Morrison, H.; Vitt, Francis; Conley, Andrew; Park, S.; Neale, Richard; Hannay, Cecile; Ekman, A. M.; Hess, Peter; Mahowald, N.; Collins, William D.; Iacono, Michael J.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Flanner, M. G.; Mitchell, David

    2012-05-21

    A modal aerosol module (MAM) has been developed for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). MAM is capable of simulating the aerosol size distribution and both internal and external mixing between aerosol components, treating numerous complicated aerosol processes and aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties in a physically based manner. Two MAM versions were developed: a more complete version with seven-lognormal modes (MAM7), and a three-lognormal mode version (MAM3) for the purpose of long-term (decades to centuries) simulations. Major approximations in MAM3 include assuming immediate mixing of primary organic matter (POM) and black carbon (BC) with other aerosol components, merging of the MAM7 fine dust and fine sea salt modes into the accumulation mode, merging of the MAM7 coarse dust and coarse sea salt modes into the single coarse mode, and neglecting the explicit treatment of ammonia and ammonium cycles. Simulated sulfate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass concentrations are remarkably similar between MAM3 and MAM7 as most ({approx}90%) of these aerosol species are in the accumulation mode. Differences of POM and BC concentrations between MAM3 and MAM7 are also small (mostly within 10%) because of the assumed hygroscopic nature of POM, so that freshly emitted POM and BC are wet-removed before mixing internally with soluble aerosol species. Sensitivity tests with the POM assumed to be hydrophobic and with slower aging process increase the POM and BC concentrations, especially at high latitudes (by several times). The mineral dust global burden differs by 10% and sea salt burden by 30-40% between MAM3 and MAM7 mainly due to the different size ranges for dust and sea salt modes and different standard deviations of log-normal size distribution for sea salt modes between MAM3 and MAM7. The model is able to qualitatively capture the observed geographical and

  14. Estimating Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M.; van Angelen, J.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Gallee, H

    2012-01-01

    We report future projections of Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) obtained with the regional climate model MAR, forced by the outputs of three CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) when considering two different warming scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The GCMs

  15. Modelling land surface - atmosphere interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Søren Højmark

    representation of groundwater in the hydrological model is found to important and this imply resolving the small river valleys. Because, the important shallow groundwater is found in the river valleys. If the model does not represent the shallow groundwater then the area mean surface flux calculation......The study is investigates modelling of land surface – atmosphere interactions in context of fully coupled climatehydrological model. With a special focus of under what condition a fully coupled model system is needed. Regional climate model inter-comparison projects as ENSEMBLES have shown bias...... by the hydrological model is found to be insensitive to model resolution. Furthermore, this study highlights the effect of bias precipitation by regional climate model and it implications for hydrological modelling....

  16. Climate of the upper atmosphere

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bremer, J.; Laštovička, Jan; Mikhailov, A. V.; Altadill, D.; Pal, B.; Burešová, Dalia; Franceschi de, G.; Jacobi, C.; Kouris, S. S.; Perrone, L.; Turunen, E.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 52, 3/4 (2009), s. 273-299 ISSN 1593-5213 R&D Projects: GA MŠk OC 091 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Ionosphere * trends * atmospheric waves * ionospheric variability * incoherent radar * space weather Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.548, year: 2009

  17. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) Annual Report 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LR Roeder

    2008-12-01

    The Importance of Clouds and Radiation for Climate Change: The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols, can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To reduce these scientific uncertainties, the ARM Program uses a unique twopronged approach: • The ARM Climate Research Facility, a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes; and • The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF and other data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report provides an overview of each of these components and a sample of achievements for each in fiscal year (FY) 2008.

  18. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  19. Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza, V.M.; Villanueva, E.E.; Garduno, R.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

    1995-12-31

    General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

  20. Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza, V M; Villanueva, E E; Garduno, R; Adem, J [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

    1996-12-31

    General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

  1. An atmosphere-ocean GCM modelling study of the climate response to changing Arctic seaways in the early Cenozoic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

    2008-12-01

    The report of fossil Azolla (a freshwater aquatic fern) in sediments from the Lomonosov Ridge suggests low salinity conditions occurred in the Arctic Ocean in the early Eocene. Restricted passages between the Arctic Ocean and the surrounding oceans are hypothesized to have caused this Arctic freshening. We investigate this scenario using a water-isotope enabled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with Eocene boundary conditions including 4xCO2, 7xCH4, altered bathymetry and topography, and an estimated distribution of Eocene vegetational types. In one experiment, oceanic exchange between the Arctic Ocean and other ocean basins was restricted to two shallow (~250 m) seaways, one in the North Atlantic, the Greenland-Norwegian seaway, and the second connecting the Arctic Ocean with the Tethys Ocean, the Turgai Straits. In the restricted configuration, the Greenland-Norwegian seaway was closed and exchange through the Turgai Straits was limited to a depth of ~60 m. The simulations suggest that the severe restriction of Arctic seaways in the early Eocene may have been sufficient to freshen Arctic Ocean surface waters, conducive to Azolla blooms. When exchange with the Arctic Ocean is limited, salinities in the upper several hundred meters of the water column decrease by ~10 psu. In some regions, surface salinity is within 2-3 psu of the reported maximum modern conditions tolerated by Azolla (~5 psu). In the restricted scenario, salt is stored preferentially in the North Atlantic and Tethys oceans, resulting in enhanced meridional overturning, increased poleward heat transport in the North Atlantic western boundary current, and warming of surface and intermediate waters in the North Atlantic by several degrees. Increased sensible and latent heat fluxes from the North Atlantic Ocean, combined with a reduction in cloud albedo, also lead to an increase in surface air temperature of over much of North America, Greenland and Eurasia. Our work is consistent with

  2. Atmospheric chemistry and physics from air pollution to climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Seinfeld, John H

    2016-01-01

    Expanded and updated with new findings and new features Since the second edition of Seinfeld and Pandis’ classic textbook, significant progress has taken place in the field of atmospheric chemistry and physics, particularly in the areas of tropospheric chemistry, aerosols, and the science of climate change. A new edition of this comprehensive work has been developed by the renowned author team. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3rd Edition, as the previous two editions have done, provides a rigorous and comprehensive treatment of the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere – including the chemistry of the stratosphere and troposphere, aerosol physics and chemistry, atmospheric new particle formation, physical meteorology, cloud physics, global climate, statistical analysis of data, and mathematical chemical/transport models of the atmosphere. Each of these topics is covered in detail and in each area the central results are developed from first principles. In this way the reader gains a significant un...

  3. Nudging atmosphere and ocean reanalyses for seasonal climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Robert; Baehr, Johanna; Kornblueh, Luis; Müller, Wolfgang Alexander; Haak, Helmuth; Botzet, Michael; Matei, Daniela

    2010-05-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts based on state-of-the-art climate models have been developed recently. Here, we critically discuss the obstacles encountered in the setup of the ECHAM6/MPIOM global coupled climate model to perform climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. We particularly focus on the initialization procedure, especially on the implementation of the nudging scheme, in which different reanalysis products are used in the atmosphere (e.g.ERA40), and the ocean (e.g., GECCO). Nudging in the atmosphere appears to be sensitive to the following choices: limiting the spectral range of nudging, whether or not temperature is nudged, the strength of the nudging coefficient for surface pressure, and the height at which the planetary boundary layer is excluded from nudging. We find that including nudging in both the atmosphere and the ocean gives improved results over nudging only the ocean or the atmosphere. For the implementation of the nudging in the atmosphere, we find the most significant improvements in the solution when either the planetary boundary layer is excluded, or if nudging of temperature is omitted. There are significant improvements in the solution when resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and in the ocean. Our tests form the basis for the prediction system introduced in the abstract of Müller et al., where hindcasts are analysed as well.

  4. The atmosphere and climate of Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Clancy, R Todd; Forget, François; Smith, Michael D; Zurek, Richard W

    2017-01-01

    Humanity has long been fascinated by the planet Mars. Was its climate ever conducive to life? What is the atmosphere like today and why did it change so dramatically over time? Eleven spacecraft have successfully flown to Mars since the Viking mission of the 1970s and early 1980s. These orbiters, landers and rovers have generated vast amounts of data that now span a Martian decade (roughly eighteen years). This new volume brings together the many new ideas about the atmosphere and climate system that have emerged, including the complex interplay of the volatile and dust cycles, the atmosphere-surface interactions that connect them over time, and the diversity of the planet's environment and its complex history. Including tutorials and explanations of complicated ideas, students, researchers and non-specialists alike are able to use this resource to gain a thorough and up-to-date understanding of this most Earth-like of planetary neighbours.

  5. Occultations for probing atmosphere and climate

    CERN Document Server

    Foelsche, Ulrich; Steiner, Andrea

    2004-01-01

    Use of occultation methodology for observing the Earth's atmosphere and climate has become so broad as to comprise solar, lunar, stellar, navigation and satellite­ crosslink occultation methods. The atmospheric parameters obtained extend from the fundamental variables temperature, density, pressure, water vapor, and ozone via a multitude of trace gas species to particulate species such as aerosols and cloud liquid water. Ionospheric electron density is sensed as well. The methods all share the key properties of self-calibration, high accuracy and vertical resolution, global coverage, and (if using radio signals) all-weather capability. Occultation data are thus of high value in a wide range of fields including climate monitoring and research, atmospheric physics and chemistry, operational meteorology, and other fields such as space weather and planetary science. This wide area of variants and uses of the occultation method has led to a diversi­ fication of the occultation-related scientific community into a...

  6. Performance engineering in the community atmosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, P; Mirin, A; Drake, J; Sawyer, W

    2006-01-01

    The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and is the primary consumer of computer resources in typical CCSM simulations. Performance engineering has been an important aspect of CAM development throughout its existence. This paper briefly summarizes these efforts and their impacts over the past five years

  7. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  8. TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

  9. Coupled atmosphere ocean climate model simulations in the Mediterranean region: effect of a high-resolution marine model on cyclones and precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sanna

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigate the importance of an eddy-permitting Mediterranean Sea circulation model on the simulation of atmospheric cyclones and precipitation in a climate model. This is done by analyzing results of two fully coupled GCM (general circulation models simulations, differing only for the presence/absence of an interactive marine module, at very high-resolution (~ 1/16°, for the simulation of the 3-D circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. Cyclones are tracked by applying an objective Lagrangian algorithm to the MSLP (mean sea level pressure field. On annual basis, we find a statistically significant difference in vast cyclogenesis regions (northern Adriatic, Sirte Gulf, Aegean Sea and southern Turkey and in lifetime, giving evidence of the effect of both land–sea contrast and surface heat flux intensity and spatial distribution on cyclone characteristics. Moreover, annual mean convective precipitation changes significantly in the two model climatologies as a consequence of differences in both air–sea interaction strength and frequency of cyclogenesis in the two analyzed simulations.

  10. Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Takemura

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosols were simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 to the present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventories used by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were applied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in the atmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs. Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects over time generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable future pathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect for different RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustrial level by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuous increases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated with reduced aerosol negative forcing.

  11. Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krakauer, Nir Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

  12. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  13. Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available dedicated a large amount of resources to utilize Atmospheric General Circulation Models 66 (AGCMs) as operational seasonal forecast tools (Landman et al. 2012). These models 67 have all been developed outside of South Africa, but have been used extensively... Niña seasons (Landman et al. 2012; Landman and Beraki 2012). As noted above, coupled 99 models are largely assumed or hypothesized to represent the state of the art of seasonal 100 forecasting. In fact, it has been conclusively shown through...

  14. Process-based modeling of silicate mineral weathering responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwart, Steven A.; Berg, Astrid; Beerling, David J.

    2009-12-01

    A mathematical model describes silicate mineral weathering processes in modern soils located in the boreal coniferous region of northern Europe. The process model results demonstrate a stabilizing biological feedback mechanism between atmospheric CO2 levels and silicate weathering rates as is generally postulated for atmospheric evolution. The process model feedback response agrees within a factor of 2 of that calculated by a weathering feedback function of the type generally employed in global geochemical carbon cycle models of the Earth's Phanerozoic CO2 history. Sensitivity analysis of parameter values in the process model provides insight into the key mechanisms that influence the strength of the biological feedback to weathering. First, the process model accounts for the alkalinity released by weathering, whereby its acceleration stabilizes pH at values that are higher than expected. Although the process model yields faster weathering with increasing temperature, because of activation energy effects on mineral dissolution kinetics at warmer temperature, the mineral dissolution rate laws utilized in the process model also result in lower dissolution rates at higher pH values. Hence, as dissolution rates increase under warmer conditions, more alkalinity is released by the weathering reaction, helping maintain higher pH values thus stabilizing the weathering rate. Second, the process model yields a relatively low sensitivity of soil pH to increasing plant productivity. This is due to more rapid decomposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) under warmer conditions. Because DOC fluxes strongly influence the soil water proton balance and pH, this increased decomposition rate dampens the feedback between productivity and weathering. The process model is most sensitive to parameters reflecting soil structure; depth, porosity, and water content. This suggests that the role of biota to influence these characteristics of the weathering profile is as important, if not

  15. Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubois, C.; Somot, S.; Deque, M.; Sevault, F. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse (France); Calmanti, S.; Carillo, A.; Dell' Aquilla, A.; Sannino, G. [ENEA, Rome (Italy); Elizalde, A.; Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Gualdi, S.; Oddo, P.; Scoccimarro, E. [INGV, Bologna (Italy); L' Heveder, B.; Li, L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)

    2012-10-15

    Within the CIRCE project ''Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment'', an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950-2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021-2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961-1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021-2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961-1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing

  16. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the climate record

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1989-04-01

    This paper is an attempt to provide a summary review of conclusions from previous studies on this subject. Subject headings include: conceptualization of the greenhouse effect, the climatic effect of doubled CO 2 , interpretation of the climatic record, diagnosis of apparent and possible model deficiencies, and the palaeoclimatic record

  17. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the climate record

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.

    1989-04-01

    This paper is an attempt to provide a summary review of conclusions from previous studies on this subject. Subject headings include: conceptualization of the greenhouse effect, the climatic effect of doubled CO/sub 2/, interpretation of the climatic record, diagnosis of apparent and possible model deficiencies, and the palaeoclimatic record.

  18. Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-10-01

    Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

  19. Atmospheric sulfur and climate changes: a modelling study at mid and high-southern latitudes; Soufre atmospherique et changements climatiques: une etude de modelisation pour les moyennes et hautes latitudes Sud

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castebrunet, H

    2007-09-15

    The mid and high-southern latitudes are still marginally affected by anthropogenic sulfur emissions. They are the only regions in the world where the natural cycle of the atmospheric sulfur may still be observed. Sulfur aerosols are well-known for their radiative impact, and thus interact with climate. Climate can in turn affect atmospheric sulfur sources, distribution and chemistry. Antarctic ice cores provide information on the evolution of climate and sulfur deposition at the surface of the ice sheet at glacial-interglacial time scales. The aim of this thesis is to develop and use modeling towards a better understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle in antarctic and sub-antarctic regions. Ice core data are used to validate model results under glacial climate conditions. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to a sulfur chemistry module is used: the LMD-ZTSulfur model, version 4. An update of both the physical and chemical parts of the model. The model was first performed. The impact of there changes on modelled sulfur cycle are evaluated for modern climate. Further, boundary conditions are adapted to simulate the atmospheric circulation and sulfur cycle at the Last Glacial Maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. In the model, sulfur is found to be highly sensitive to antarctic sea-ice coverage, which is still poorly known during the ice age. An original dataset of ice-age sea-ice coverage was developed. Its impact on the oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide, main precursor of sulfur aerosols at high-southern latitudes, is discussed. Using the same oceanic sulfur reservoirs as for present day climate, the model broadly reproduces the glacial deposits of sulfur aerosols on the Antarctic plateau, suggesting little impact of climate on oceanic sulfur production in the Antarctic region. Sensitivity tests were carried out to draw an up-to-date status of major uncertainties and difficulties facing future progress in understanding atmospheric

  20. Middle atmosphere response to different descriptions of the 11-yr solar cycle in spectral irradiance in a chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. H. Swartz

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The 11-yr solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOSCCM. The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3–6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7 in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units F10.7 – 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOSCCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. This is important in that it means that chemistry-transport models should simulate the solar cycle in ozone well, while general circulation models without coupled chemistry will underestimate the temperature response to the solar cycle significantly in the middle atmosphere. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm

  1. Evaluation of a present-day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Alder

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a new, non-flux corrected AOGCM, GENMOM, that combines the GENESIS version 3 atmospheric GCM (Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems and MOM2 (Modular Ocean Model version 2 nominally at T31 resolution. We evaluate GENMOM by comparison with reanalysis products (e.g., NCEP2 and three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semi-permanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures reasonably well the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM simulations include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-than-observed overturning circulation.

  2. Global land-atmosphere coupling associated with cold climate processes

    OpenAIRE

    Dutra, Emanuel, 1983-

    2011-01-01

    Tese de doutoramento, Ciências Geofísicas e da Geoinformação (Meteorologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2011 This dissertation constitutes an assessment of the role of cold processes, associated with snow cover, in controlling the land-atmosphere coupling. The work was based on model simulations, including offline simulations with the land surface model HTESSEL, and coupled atmosphere simulations with the EC-EARTH climate model. A revised snow scheme was developed and t...

  3. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  4. Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Fettweis

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available To estimate the sea level rise (SLR originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS, we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional, forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs. Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

  5. Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1999-01-01

    temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

  6. Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Datasets to Evaluate Climate Models in Simulating Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Tropical Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Burleyson, Casey D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Fast, Jerome D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-04-01

    We use the long-term Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) datasets collected at the three Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites as a tropical testbed to evaluate the ability of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) to simulate the various types of clouds, their seasonal and diurnal variations, and their impact on surface radiation. We conducted a series of CAM5 simulations at various horizontal grid spacing (around 2°, 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25°) with meteorological constraints from reanalysis. Model biases in the seasonal cycle of cloudiness are found to be weakly dependent on model resolution. Positive biases (up to 20%) in the annual mean total cloud fraction appear mostly in stratiform ice clouds. Higher-resolution simulations do reduce the positive bias in the frequency of ice clouds, but they inadvertently increase the negative biases in convective clouds and low-level liquid clouds, leading to a positive bias in annual mean shortwave fluxes at the sites, as high as 65 W m-2 in the 0.25° simulation. Such resolution-dependent biases in clouds can adversely lead to biases in ambient thermodynamic properties and, in turn, feedback on clouds. Both the CAM5 model and ARM observations show distinct diurnal cycles in total, stratiform and convective cloud fractions; however, they are out-of-phase by 12 hours and the biases vary by site. Our results suggest that biases in deep convection affect the vertical distribution and diurnal cycle of stratiform clouds through the transport of vapor and/or the detrainment of liquid and ice. We also found that the modelled gridmean surface longwave fluxes are systematically larger than site measurements when the grid that the ARM sites reside in is partially covered by ocean. The modeled longwave fluxes at such sites also lack a discernable diurnal cycle because the ocean part of the grid is warmer and less sensitive to radiative heating/cooling compared to land. Higher spatial resolution is more helpful is this regard. Our

  7. Revised mineral dust emissions in the atmospheric chemistry–climate model EMAC (MESSy 2.52 DU_Astitha1 KKDU2017 patch)

    KAUST Repository

    Klingmüller, Klaus

    2018-03-16

    To improve the aeolian dust budget calculations with the global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry–climate model (EMAC), which combines the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) with the ECMWF/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg based on a weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we have implemented new input data and updates of the emission scheme. The data set comprises land cover classification, vegetation, clay fraction and topography. It is based on up-to-date observations, which are crucial to account for the rapid changes of deserts and semi-arid regions in recent decades. The new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land cover and vegetation data are time dependent, and the effect of long-term trends and variability of the relevant parameters is therefore considered by the emission scheme. All input data have a spatial resolution of at least 0.1° compared to 1° in the previous version, equipping the model for high-resolution simulations. We validate the updates by comparing the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm wavelength from a 1-year simulation at T106 (about 1.1°) resolution with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MODIS observations, the 10 µm dust AOD (DAOD) with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) retrievals, and dust concentration and deposition results with observations from the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) dust benchmark data set. The update significantly improves agreement with the observations and is therefore recommended to be used in future simulations.

  8. Revised mineral dust emissions in the atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC (MESSy 2.52 DU_Astitha1 KKDU2017 patch)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klingmüller, Klaus; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos

    2018-03-01

    To improve the aeolian dust budget calculations with the global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), which combines the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) with the ECMWF/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg based on a weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we have implemented new input data and updates of the emission scheme.The data set comprises land cover classification, vegetation, clay fraction and topography. It is based on up-to-date observations, which are crucial to account for the rapid changes of deserts and semi-arid regions in recent decades. The new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land cover and vegetation data are time dependent, and the effect of long-term trends and variability of the relevant parameters is therefore considered by the emission scheme. All input data have a spatial resolution of at least 0.1° compared to 1° in the previous version, equipping the model for high-resolution simulations.We validate the updates by comparing the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm wavelength from a 1-year simulation at T106 (about 1.1°) resolution with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and MODIS observations, the 10 µm dust AOD (DAOD) with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) retrievals, and dust concentration and deposition results with observations from the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) dust benchmark data set. The update significantly improves agreement with the observations and is therefore recommended to be used in future simulations.

  9. Revised mineral dust emissions in the atmospheric chemistry–climate model EMAC (MESSy 2.52 DU_Astitha1 KKDU2017 patch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Klingmüller

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available To improve the aeolian dust budget calculations with the global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry–climate model (EMAC, which combines the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy with the ECMWF/Hamburg (ECHAM climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg based on a weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, we have implemented new input data and updates of the emission scheme.The data set comprises land cover classification, vegetation, clay fraction and topography. It is based on up-to-date observations, which are crucial to account for the rapid changes of deserts and semi-arid regions in recent decades. The new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-based land cover and vegetation data are time dependent, and the effect of long-term trends and variability of the relevant parameters is therefore considered by the emission scheme. All input data have a spatial resolution of at least 0.1° compared to 1° in the previous version, equipping the model for high-resolution simulations.We validate the updates by comparing the aerosol optical depth (AOD at 550 nm wavelength from a 1-year simulation at T106 (about 1.1° resolution with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET and MODIS observations, the 10 µm dust AOD (DAOD with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI retrievals, and dust concentration and deposition results with observations from the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom dust benchmark data set. The update significantly improves agreement with the observations and is therefore recommended to be used in future simulations.

  10. Panel on atmospheric and climatic consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1984-01-01

    This article reviews some of the important details and undergirding of the presentations on the atmospheric, climatic and biological consequences of nuclear war. The discussion focuses on two questions that have been raised: whether the scenerios that have been presented are a credible basis for analysis of the consequences of possible nuclear wars, given the sizes of the existing arsenals and the available knowledge about how these arsenals might be used; and, whether the various numbers that were given for radiation doses from fallout are in fact internally consistent and compatible with those calculated by other analysts

  11. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Model Biases Using data Assimilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sumant Nigam

    2013-02-05

    These five publications are summarized: Key role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th century drought and wet periods over the Great Plains; A Sub-Seasonal Teleconnection Analysis: PNA Development and Its Relationship to the NAO; AMO's Structure and Climate Footprint in Observations and IPCC AR5 Climate Simulations; The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in 20th Century Climate Simulations: Uneven Progress from CMIP3 to CMIP5; and Tropical Atlantic Biases in CCSM4.

  12. Simulation and prediction the impact of climate change into water resources in Bengawan Solo watershed based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipayung, Sinta B.; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang

    2018-05-01

    Bengawan Solo Watershed is one of the largest watersheds in Indonesia. This watershed flows in many areas both in Central Java and East Java. Therefore, the water resources condition greatly affects many people. This research will be conducted on prediction of climate change effect on water resources condition in terms of rainfall conditions in Bengawan Solo River Basin. The goal of this research is to know and predict the climate change impact on water resources based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model) with downscaling baseline (historical) model data from 1949 to 2005 and RCP 4.5 from 2006 to 2069. The modeling data was validated with in-situ data (measurement data). To analyse the water availability condition in Bengawan Solo Watershed, the simulation of river flow and water balance condition were done in Bengawan Solo River. Simulation of river flow and water balance conditions were done with ArcSWAT model using climate data from CCAM, DEM SRTM 90 meter, soil type, and land use data. The results of this simulation indicate there is (i) The CCAM data itself after validation has a pretty good result when compared to the insitu data. Based on CCAM simulation results, it is predicted that in 2040-2069 rainfall in Bengawan Solo River Basin will decrease, to a maximum of only about 1 mm when compared to 1971-2000. (ii) The CCAM rainfall prediction itself shows that rainfall in Bengawan Solo River basin will decline until 2069 although the decline itself is not significant and tends to be negligible (rainfall is considered unchanged) (iii) Both in the DJF and JJA seasons, precipitation is predicted to decline as well despite the significant decline. (iv) The river flow simulation show that the water resources in Bengawan Solo River did not change significantly. This event occurred because the rainfall also did not change greatly and close to 0 mm/month.

  13. Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyring, Veronika; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Berntsen, Terje; Collins, William J.; Corbett, James J.; Endresen, Oyvind; Grainger, Roy G.; Moldanova, Jana; Schlager, Hans; Stevenson, David S.

    2010-12-01

    Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO 2, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO 2 is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO 2 equivalent emissions using

  14. Lightning, atmospheric electricity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, C.

    1993-10-01

    Temperature records indicate that a global warming of 0.5-0.7 degrees C has occurred over the past century (Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987). Whether this trend is a result of increased trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere, or simply a result of natural variability; is still not known. These temperature trends are derived from thousands of observations worldwide. However, these observations are concentrated largely over continental areas, and then mainly in the northern hemisphere's populated regions. This northern hemisphere continental bias results in large uncertainties in estimates of global temperature trends. Due to the increasing evidence that the present buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may result in an additional global warming of 1-5 degrees C by the year 2050 (IPCC, 1990), it is increasingly important to find afternative methods to monitor fluctuations in global surface temperatures. As shown by two recent studies (Williams, 1992; Price, 1993), the global atmospheric electric circuit may provide a promising afternative for monitoring future climate change

  15. Atmospheric/climatic effects of aircraft emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pueschel, R.F.

    1996-01-01

    Exhaust emissions from aircraft include oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), water vapor (H 2 O), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and particles (soot and sulfates). These emissions are small compared to industrial/urban surface emissions. However, because (1) atmospheric residence times of exhaust constituents are longer at altitude, particularly in the stratosphere, than they are in the boundary layer, (2) their background concentrations at altitude are lower than those near the surface, (3) the radiation balance is the more sensitive to atmospheric trace constituents the colder the temperature aloft and (4) inter-hemispheric mixing of aircraft effluents is inhibited, aircraft emissions near and above the tropopause and polewards of 40 degrees latitude can be environmentally critical. That's why atmospheric/climatic effects of aircraft emissions have again received scientific, economic and political scrutiny in the last few years, motivated by growth of subsonic traffic at about 5% per year over the past two decades and the advent of a technologically feasible operation of a supersonic high speed commercial transport (HSCT) fleet

  16. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  17. Assessment of the possible future climatic impact of carbon dioxide increases based on a coupled one-dimensional atmospheric-oceanic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, B.G.; Wells, N.C.

    1979-01-01

    A radiative-convective equilibrium model of the atmosphere has been coupled with a mixed layer model of the ocean to investigate the response of this one-dimensional system to increasing carbon dioxide amounts in the atmosphere. For global mean conditions a surface temperature rise of about 2 0 K was obtained for a doubling of the carbon dioxide amount, in reasonable agreement with the commonly accepted results of Manabe and Wetherald. This temperature rise was essentially invariant with season and indicates that including a shallow (300 m) ocean slab in this problem does not basically alter previous assessments. While the mixed layer depth of the ocean was only very slightly changed by the temperature increase, which extended throughout the depth of the mixed layer, the impact of this increase on the overall behavior of the ocean warrants further study. A calculation was also made of the temporal variation of the sea surface temperature for three possible carbon dioxide growth rates starting from an initial carbon dioxide content of 300 ppm. This indicated that the thermal inertia of the slab ocean provides a time lag of 8 years in the sea surface temperature response compared to a land situation. This is not considered to be of great significance as regards the likely future climatic impact of carbon dioxide increase

  18. Climatic response to a gradual increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stouffer, R.J.; Manabe, S.; Bryan, K.

    1990-01-01

    The transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of carbon dioxide has been the subject of several studies. The models used in these studies explicitly incorporate the effect of heat transport by ocean currents and are different from the model used by Hansen et al. Here the authors evaluate the climatic influence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide using a coupled model recently developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model response exhibits a marked and unexpected interhemispheric asymmetry. In the circumpolar ocean of the southern hemisphere, a region of deep vertical mixing, the increase of surface air temperature is very slow. In the Northern hemisphere of the model, the rise of surface air temperature is faster and increases with latitude, with the exception of the northern North Atlantic, where it is relatively slow because of the weakening of the thermohaline circulation

  19. Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC) consist of time series of radiosonde-based temperature anomalies for the years...

  20. Atmospheric Ozone and Methane in a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivar S. A. Isaksen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Ozone and methane are chemically active climate-forcing agents affected by climate–chemistry interactions in the atmosphere. Key chemical reactions and processes affecting ozone and methane are presented. It is shown that climate-chemistry interactions have a significant impact on the two compounds. Ozone, which is a secondary compound in the atmosphere, produced and broken down mainly in the troposphere and stratosphre through chemical reactions involving atomic oxygen (O, NOx compounds (NO, NO2, CO, hydrogen radicals (OH, HO2, volatile organic compounds (VOC and chlorine (Cl, ClO and bromine (Br, BrO. Ozone is broken down through changes in the atmospheric distribution of the afore mentioned compounds. Methane is a primary compound emitted from different sources (wetlands, rice production, livestock, mining, oil and gas production and landfills.Methane is broken down by the hydroxyl radical (OH. OH is significantly affected by methane emissions, defined by the feedback factor, currently estimated to be in the range 1.3 to 1.5, and increasing with increasing methane emission. Ozone and methane changes are affected by NOx emissions. While ozone in general increase with increases in NOx emission, methane is reduced, due to increases in OH. Several processes where current and future changes have implications for climate-chemistry interactions are identified. It is also shown that climatic changes through dynamic processes could have significant impact on the atmospheric chemical distribution of ozone and methane, as we can see through the impact of Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO. Modeling studies indicate that increases in ozone could be more pronounced toward the end of this century. Thawing permafrost could lead to important positive feedbacks in the climate system. Large amounts of organic material are stored in the upper layers of the permafrost in the yedoma deposits in Siberia, where 2 to 5% of the deposits could be organic material

  1. Fire Influences on Atmospheric Composition, Air Quality, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Field, Robert D.

    2015-01-01

    Fires impact atmospheric composition through their emissions, which range from long-lived gases to short-lived gases and aerosols. Effects are typically larger in the tropics and boreal regions but can also be substantial in highly populated areas in the northern mid-latitudes. In all regions, fire can impact air quality and health. Similarly, its effect on large-scale atmospheric processes, including regional and global atmospheric chemistry and climate forcing, can be substantial, but this remains largely unexplored. The impacts are primarily realised in the boundary layer and lower free troposphere but can also be noticeable in upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, for the most intense fires. In this review, we summarise the recent literature on findings related to fire impact on atmospheric composition, air quality and climate. We explore both observational and modelling approaches and present information on key regions and on the globe as a whole. We also discuss the current and future directions in this area of research, focusing on the major advances in emission estimates, the emerging efforts to include fire as a component in Earth system modelling and the use of modelling to assess health impacts of fire emissions.

  2. Old-field Community, Climate and Atmospheric Manipulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aimee Classen

    2009-11-01

    We are in the process of finishing a number of laboratory, growth chamber and greenhouse projects, analyzing data, and writing papers. The projects reported addressed these subjects: How do climate and atmospheric changes alter aboveground plant biomass and community structure; Effects of multiple climate changes factors on plant community composition and diversity: what did we learn from a 5-year open-top chamber experiment using constructed old-field communities; Do atmospheric and climatic change factors interact to alter woody seedling emergence, establishment and productivity; Soil moisture surpasses elevated CO{sub 2} and temperature in importance as a control on soil carbon dynamics; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter belowground root and fungal biomass; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter soil microarthropod and microbial communities; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter belowground microbial function; Linking root litter diversity and microbial functioning at a micro scale under current and projected CO{sub 2} concentrations; Multifactor climate change effects on soil ecosystem functioning depend on concurrent changes in plant community composition; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter aboveground insect populations; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter festuca endophyte infection; How do climate and atmospheric changes soil carbon stabilization.

  3. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  4. Interfacing a one-dimensional lake model with a single-column atmospheric model: 2. Thermal response of the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland under a 2 × CO2 global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perroud, Marjorie; Goyette, StéPhane

    2012-06-01

    In the companion to the present paper, the one-dimensional k-ɛ lake model SIMSTRAT is coupled to a single-column atmospheric model, nicknamed FIZC, and an application of the coupled model to the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland, is described. In this paper, the response of Lake Geneva to global warming caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (i.e., 2 × CO2) is investigated. Coupling the models allowed for feedbacks between the lake surface and the atmosphere and produced changes in atmospheric moisture and cloud cover that further modified the downward radiation fluxes. The time evolution of atmospheric variables as well as those of the lake's thermal profile could be reproduced realistically by devising a set of adjustable parameters. In a "control" 1 × CO2 climate experiment, the coupled FIZC-SIMSTRAT model demonstrated genuine skills in reproducing epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures, with annual mean errors and standard deviations of 0.25°C ± 0.25°C and 0.3°C ± 0.15°C, respectively. Doubling the CO2 concentration induced an atmospheric warming that impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes mainly in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. During summer, reduced cloud cover resulted in an increase in the annual net solar radiation budget. A larger water vapor deficit at the air-water interface induced a cooling effect in the lake.

  5. Evaluation of Preindustrial to Present-day Black Carbon and its Albedo Forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, Drew; Berntsen, T.; Bisiauxs, M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; Edwards, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Horowitz, L.; McConnell, J.R.; Ming, J.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Thevenon, F.; Xu, B.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-03-05

    As a part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against the observations including 12 ice core records, a long-term surface mass concentrations and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using the NCAR Community Land and Sea-Ice model 4 with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000, which includes the SNICAR BC-snow model. We evaluated the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations to using recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to the differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology among models; 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However,models agree well on 2.5~3 times increase in the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day, which matches with the 2.5 times increase in BC emissions. We find a large model diversity at both NH and SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Jungfrauch and Ispra. However, the models fail to capture the Arctic BC seasonality due tosevere underestimations during winter and spring. Compared to recent snowpack measurements, the simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of observations except for Greenland and Arctic Ocean. However, model and observation differ widely due to missing interannual variations in emissions and possibly due to the choice of the prescribed meteorology period (i.e., 1996-2000).

  6. Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M.; van Angelen, J.H.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Gallée, H.

    2013-01-01

    To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Mod`ele Atmosph´erique R´egional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model

  7. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  8. Modelling of anthropogenic and natural climate changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Mikolajewicz, U; Bakan, S [Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

    1993-06-01

    The delay of anthropogenic climate change caused by oceans and other slowly reacting climate system components forces us to numerical modeling as the basis of decisions. For three three-dimensional numerical examples, namely transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the additional greenhouse effect, internal ocean-atmosphere variability, and disturbance by soot particles from burning oil wells, the present-day status is described. From all anthropogenic impacts on the radiative balance, the contribution from trace gases is the most important.

  9. Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikonen, J.P.; Sucksdorff, Y. [Finnish Environment Agency, Helsinki (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    In this study the soil/vegetation/atmosphere-model based on the formulation of Deardorff was refined to hour basis and applied to a field in Vihti. The effect of model parameters on model results (energy fluxes, temperatures) was also studied as well as the effect of atmospheric conditions. The estimation of atmospheric conditions on the soil-vegetation system as well as an estimation of the effect of vegetation parameters on the atmospheric climate was estimated. Areal surface fluxes, temperatures and moistures were also modelled for some river basins in southern Finland. Land-use and soil parameterisation was developed to include properties and yearly variation of all vegetation and soil types. One classification was selected to describe the hydrothermal properties of the soils. Evapotranspiration was verified against the water balance method

  10. Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikonen, J P; Sucksdorff, Y [Finnish Environment Agency, Helsinki (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    In this study the soil/vegetation/atmosphere-model based on the formulation of Deardorff was refined to hour basis and applied to a field in Vihti. The effect of model parameters on model results (energy fluxes, temperatures) was also studied as well as the effect of atmospheric conditions. The estimation of atmospheric conditions on the soil-vegetation system as well as an estimation of the effect of vegetation parameters on the atmospheric climate was estimated. Areal surface fluxes, temperatures and moistures were also modelled for some river basins in southern Finland. Land-use and soil parameterisation was developed to include properties and yearly variation of all vegetation and soil types. One classification was selected to describe the hydrothermal properties of the soils. Evapotranspiration was verified against the water balance method

  11. A climatically-derived global soil moisture data set for use in the GLAS atmospheric circulation model seasonal cycle experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willmott, C. J.; Field, R. T.

    1984-01-01

    Algorithms for point interpolation and contouring on the surface of the sphere and in Cartesian two-space are developed from Shepard's (1968) well-known, local search method. These mapping procedures then are used to investigate the errors which appear on small-scale climate maps as a result of the all-too-common practice of of interpolating, from irregularly spaced data points to the nodes of a regular lattice, and contouring Cartesian two-space. Using mean annual air temperatures field over the western half of the northern hemisphere is estimated both on the sphere, assumed to be correct, and in Cartesian two-space. When the spherically- and Cartesian-approximted air temperature fields are mapped and compared, the magnitudes (as large as 5 C to 10 C) and distribution of the errors associated with the latter approach become apparent.

  12. Climate | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump to Content Enter Search Terms Weather Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites your local weather Enter your ZIP code GO Enter Search Terms Content OUR WORK Climate From to help people understand and prepare for climate variability and change. Climate. NOAA From

  13. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gaudel

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available 'The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report' (TOAR is an activity of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project. This paper is a component of the report, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone relevant to climate and global atmospheric chemistry model evaluation. Utilizing the TOAR surface ozone database, several figures present the global distribution and trends of daytime average ozone at 2702 non-urban monitoring sites, highlighting the regions and seasons of the world with the greatest ozone levels. Similarly, ozonesonde and commercial aircraft observations reveal ozone’s distribution throughout the depth of the free troposphere. Long-term surface observations are limited in their global spatial coverage, but data from remote locations indicate that ozone in the 21st century is greater than during the 1970s and 1980s. While some remote sites and many sites in the heavily polluted regions of East Asia show ozone increases since 2000, many others show decreases and there is no clear global pattern for surface ozone changes since 2000. Two new satellite products provide detailed views of ozone in the lower troposphere across East Asia and Europe, revealing the full spatial extent of the spring and summer ozone enhancements across eastern China that cannot be assessed from limited surface observations. Sufficient data are now available (ozonesondes, satellite, aircraft across the tropics from South America eastwards to the western Pacific Ocean, to indicate a likely tropospheric column ozone increase since the 1990s. The 2014–2016 mean tropospheric ozone burden (TOB between 60°N–60°S from five satellite products is 300 Tg ± 4%. While this agreement is excellent, the products differ in their quantification of TOB trends and further work is required to reconcile the differences. Satellites can now estimate ozone’s global long-wave radiative effect, but evaluation is difficult due to limited

  14. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  15. The atmospheric heat engine response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauluis, O. M.

    2014-12-01

    Moist convection is characterized by complex interactions between dynamics and thermodynamics. As air parcels within the atmosphere, they experience multiple thermodynamic transformations, such as compression and expansion, diabatic heating and cooling, condensation and mixing. These transformations correspond to those of a heat engine that produces kinetic energy while transporting energy from a warm source to a colder sink. This atmospheric heat engine is however directly affected by moist processes. First, falling precipitation acts as a break on the circulation by dissipating a significant amount of kinetic energy. Second, evaporation of unsaturated water and diffusion of water vapor are irrevesible processes that also reduce the amount of work that can be produced. An important challenge is to quantify the impacts that these two effects have on the generation of kinetic energy. Here, I will introduce a new technique - the Mean Air Flow As Lagragian Dynamics Approximation (MAFALDA) - that can be used to systematically analyze the thermodynamic behavior of complex atmospheric flows. This approach relies on sorting the upward mass transport in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of the air parcels to obtain an isentropic streamfunction. This streamfunction is then used to determine the thermodynamic evolution of air parcels as they move through the atmosphere. This approach is applied to analyze how convective systems would behave in a warmer climate. It is shown that an increase in atmospheric temperature lead to a significant increase of the amount of kinetic energy that is produced per unit of mass of air transported. At the same time, the total generation of kinetic energy is only slightly affected. Taken together, these findings imply that, in a warming atmosphere, the number of intense convective events will be reduced, while their intensity should increase. I will also discuss the new possibility of systematically studying the thermodynamic

  16. The influence of biogenic atmospheric sulfur compounds on climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Georgii, H -W [University of Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main (Germany). Dept. of Meteorology and Geophysics

    1993-09-01

    The author reviews research so far into sulphur compounds occurring in the atmosphere, namely dimethylsulfide (DMS) and carbonyl sulphide (COS). He explains how the sulphate particles formed by oxidation of DMS with OH radicals act as cloud condensation nuclei which in turn leads to enhanced formation of precipitation. Increase of cloud droplet density leads also to an increase of cloud albedo. The hypothesis of carbonyl sulphide as a precursor for stratospheric sulphate particles is discussed, along with evidence of model calculations showing that the increase of COS flux in the stratosphere leads to an increase in density of stratospheric aerosols and to slight global cooling, particularly compensating for the warming caused by the greenhouse effect. Although the influence of biogenic sulphur gases on climate is still speculative due to lack of information of the source, strength and global trend of these gases, the author advocates they deserve special attention since they may contribute to the stabilization of our climate. 16 refs., 5 figs.

  17. Atmospheric pollution. From processes to modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sportisse, B.

    2008-01-01

    Air quality, greenhouse effect, ozone hole, chemical or nuclear accidents.. All these phenomena are tightly linked to the chemical composition of atmosphere and to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. This book aims at supplying the main elements of understanding of 'atmospheric pollutions': stakes, physical processes involved, role of scientific expertise in decision making. Content: 1 - classifications and scales: chemical composition of the atmosphere, vertical structure, time scales (transport, residence); 2 - matter/light interaction: notions of radiative transfer, application to the Earth's atmosphere; 3 - some elements about the atmospheric boundary layer: notion of scales in meteorology, atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), thermal stratification and stability, description of ABL turbulence, elements of atmospheric dynamics, some elements about the urban climate; 4 - notions of atmospheric chemistry: characteristics, ozone stratospheric chemistry, ozone tropospheric chemistry, brief introduction to indoor air quality; 5 - aerosols, clouds and rains: aerosols and particulates, aerosols and clouds, acid rains and leaching; 6 - towards numerical simulation: equation of reactive dispersion, numerical methods for chemistry-transport models, numerical resolution of the general equation of aerosols dynamics (GDE), modern simulation chains, perspectives. (J.S.)

  18. Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1992-01-01

    Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

  19. Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Cold Environments (LATICE): The role of Atmosphere - Biosphere - Cryosphere - Hydrosphere interactions in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhart, J. F.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stordal, F.; Berntsen, T.; Westermann, S.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Etzelmuller, B.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T.; Hamran, S. E.; Lande, T. S.; Bryn, A.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is impacting the high latitudes more rapidly and significantly than any other region of the Earth because of feedback processes between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. A warmer climate has already led to thawing of permafrost, reducing snow cover and a longer growing season; changes, which in turn influence the atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Still, many studies rely on one-way coupling between the atmosphere and the land surface, thereby neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. The observation, understanding and prediction of such processes from local to regional and global scales, represent a major scientific challenge that requires multidisciplinary scientific effort. The successful integration of earth observations (remote and in-situ data) and model development requires a harmonized research effort between earth system scientists, modelers and the developers of technologies and sensors. LATICE, which is recognized as a priority research area by the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Oslo, aims to advance the knowledge base concerning land atmosphere interactions and their role in controlling climate variability and climate change at high northern latitudes. The consortium consists of an interdisciplinary team of experts from the atmospheric and terrestrial (hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere) research groups, together with key expertise on earth observations and novel sensor technologies. LATICE addresses critical knowledge gaps in the current climate assessment capacity through: Improving parameterizations of processes in earth system models controlling the interactions and feedbacks between the land (snow, ice, permafrost, soil and vegetation) and the atmosphere at high latitudes, including the boreal, alpine and artic zone. Assessing the influence of climate and land cover changes on water and energy fluxes. Integrating remote earth observations with in-situ data and

  20. Atmospheric statistical dynamic models. Model performance: the Lawrence Livermore Laboratoy Zonal Atmospheric Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.L.; Ellsaesser, H.W.; MacCracken, M.C.; Luther, F.M.

    1978-06-01

    Results from the zonal model indicate quite reasonable agreement with observation in terms of the parameters and processes that influence the radiation and energy balance calculations. The model produces zonal statistics similar to those from general circulation models, and has also been shown to produce similar responses in sensitivity studies. Further studies of model performance are planned, including: comparison with July data; comparison of temperature and moisture transport and wind fields for winter and summer months; and a tabulation of atmospheric energetics. Based on these preliminary performance studies, however, it appears that the zonal model can be used in conjunction with more complex models to help unravel the problems of understanding the processes governing present climate and climate change. As can be seen in the subsequent paper on model sensitivity studies, in addition to reduced cost of computation, the zonal model facilitates analysis of feedback mechanisms and simplifies analysis of the interactions between processes

  1. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

  2. Sensitivity of the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM to different gravity-wave drag parameterisations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Mieth

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available We report the sensitivity of the Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM to different gravity-wave (GW parameterisations. We perform five perpetual January experiments: 1 Rayleigh friction (RF (control, 2 non-orographic GWs, 3 orographic GWs, 4 orographic and non-orographic GWs with no background stress, and 5 as for 4 but with background stress. We also repeat experiment 4 but for July conditions. Our main aim is to improve the model climatology by introducing orographic and non-orographic parameterisations and to investigate the individual effect of these schemes in the Berlin CMAM. We compare with an RF control to determine the improvement upon a previously-published model version employing RF. Results are broadly similar to previously-published works. The runs having both orographic and non-orographic GWs produce a statistically-significant warming of 4-8K in the wintertime polar lower stratosphere. These runs also feature a cooling of the warm summer pole in the mesosphere by 10-15K, more in line with observations. This is associated with the non-orographic GW scheme. This scheme is also associated with a heating feature in the winter polar upper stratosphere directly below the peak GW-breaking region. The runs with both orographic and non-orographic GWs feature a statistically-significant deceleration in the polar night jet (PNJ of 10-20ms-1 in the lower stratosphere. Both orographic and non-orographic GWs individually produce some latitudinal tilting of the polar jet with height, although the main effect comes from the non-orographic waves. The resulting degree of tilt, although improved, is nevertheless still weaker than that observed. Accordingly, wintertime variability in the zonal mean wind, which peaks at the edge of the vortex, tends to maximise too far polewards in the model compared with observations. Gravity-planetary wave interaction leads to a decrease in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves 1 and 2 by up to 50% in

  3. Sensitivity of the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM to different gravity-wave drag parameterisations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Mieth

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available We report the sensitivity of the Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM to different gravity-wave (GW parameterisations. We perform five perpetual January experiments: 1 Rayleigh friction (RF (control, 2 non-orographic GWs, 3 orographic GWs, 4 orographic and non-orographic GWs with no background stress, and 5 as for 4 but with background stress. We also repeat experiment 4 but for July conditions. Our main aim is to improve the model climatology by introducing orographic and non-orographic parameterisations and to investigate the individual effect of these schemes in the Berlin CMAM. We compare with an RF control to determine the improvement upon a previously-published model version employing RF. Results are broadly similar to previously-published works. The runs having both orographic and non-orographic GWs produce a statistically-significant warming of 4-8K in the wintertime polar lower stratosphere. These runs also feature a cooling of the warm summer pole in the mesosphere by 10-15K, more in line with observations. This is associated with the non-orographic GW scheme. This scheme is also associated with a heating feature in the winter polar upper stratosphere directly below the peak GW-breaking region. The runs with both orographic and non-orographic GWs feature a statistically-significant deceleration in the polar night jet (PNJ of 10-20ms-1 in the lower stratosphere. Both orographic and non-orographic GWs individually produce some latitudinal tilting of the polar jet with height, although the main effect comes from the non-orographic waves. The resulting degree of tilt, although improved, is nevertheless still weaker than that observed. Accordingly, wintertime variability in the zonal mean wind, which peaks at the edge of the vortex, tends to maximise too far polewards in the model compared with observations. Gravity-planetary wave interaction leads to a decrease in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves 1 and 2 by

  4. Global land-atmosphere coupling associated with cold climate processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutra, Emanuel

    This dissertation constitutes an assessment of the role of cold processes, associated with snow cover, in controlling the land-atmosphere coupling. The work was based on model simulations, including offline simulations with the land surface model HTESSEL, and coupled atmosphere simulations with the EC-EARTH climate model. A revised snow scheme was developed and tested in HTESSEL and EC-EARTH. The snow scheme is currently operational at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts integrated forecast system, and in the default configuration of EC-EARTH. The improved representation of the snowpack dynamics in HTESSEL resulted in improvements in the near surface temperature simulations of EC-EARTH. The new snow scheme development was complemented with the option of multi-layer version that showed its potential in modeling thick snowpacks. A key process was the snow thermal insulation that led to significant improvements of the surface water and energy balance components. Similar findings were observed when coupling the snow scheme to lake ice, where lake ice duration was significantly improved. An assessment on the snow cover sensitivity to horizontal resolution, parameterizations and atmospheric forcing within HTESSEL highlighted the role of the atmospheric forcing accuracy and snowpack parameterizations in detriment of horizontal resolution over flat regions. A set of experiments with and without free snow evolution was carried out with EC-EARTH to assess the impact of the interannual variability of snow cover on near surface and soil temperatures. It was found that snow cover interannual variability explained up to 60% of the total interannual variability of near surface temperature over snow covered regions. Although these findings are model dependent, the results showed consistency with previously published work. Furthermore, the detailed validation of the snow dynamics simulations in HTESSEL and EC-EARTH guarantees consistency of the results.

  5. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research (ARM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — With heavily instrumented field sites around the globe, the ARM Climate Research Facility provides the world's most comprehensive outdoor laboratory and data archive...

  6. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP, we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan

  7. Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Flanner, M. G.; Jiao, C.; Shindell, D. T.; Bernsten, T.; Bisiaux, M. M.; Cao, J.; Collins, W. J.; Curran, M.; hide

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores

  8. The impact of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganzeveld, L.N.; Bouwman, L.

    2010-01-01

    To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy

  9. Stochastic and Statistical Methods in Climate, Atmosphere, and Ocean Science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.T. Crommelin (Daan); B. Khouider; B. Engquist

    2015-01-01

    htmlabstractIntroduction The behavior of the atmosphere, oceans, and climate is intrinsically uncertain. The basic physical principles that govern atmospheric and oceanic flows are well known, for example, the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow, thermodynamic properties of moist air, and the

  10. Computer simulations of the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gadzhev, G.; Ganev, K.; Syrkov, D.; Prodanova, M.; Georgieva, I.; Georgiev, G.

    2015-07-01

    Some extensive numerical simulations of the atmospheric composition fields in Bulgaria have been recently performed. The US EPA Model-3 system was chosen as a modelling tool. As the NCEP Global Analysis Data with 1 degree resolution was used as meteorological background, the MM5 and CMAQ nesting capabilities were applied for downscaling the simulations to a 3 km resolution over Bulgaria. The TNO emission inventory was used as emission input. Special pre-processing procedures are created for introducing temporal profiles and speciation of the emissions. The biogenic emissions of VOC are estimated by the model SMOKE. The simulations were carried out for years 2000-2007. The numerical experiments have been carried out for different emission scenarios, which makes it possible the contribution of emissions from different source categories to be evaluated. The Models-3 “Integrated Process Rate Analysis” option is applied to discriminate the role of different dynamic and chemical processes for the air pollution formation. The obtained ensemble of numerical simulation results is extensive enough to allow statistical treatment – calculating not only the mean concentrations and different source categories contribution mean fields, but also standard deviations, skewness, etc. with their dominant temporal modes (seasonal and/or diurnal variations). Thus some basic facts about the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria can be retrieved from the simulation ensemble. (Author)

  11. Computer simulations of the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gadzhev, G.; Ganev, K.; Syrakov, D.; Prodanova, M.; Georgieva, I.; Georgiev, G.

    2015-07-01

    Some extensive numerical simulations of the atmospheric composition fields in Bulgaria have been recently performed. The US EPA Model-3 system was chosen as a modelling tool. As the NCEP Global Analysis Data with 1 degree resolution was used as meteorological background, the MM5 and CMAQ nesting capabilities were applied for downscaling the simulations to a 3 km resolution over Bulgaria. The TNO emission inventory was used as emission input. Special pre-processing procedures are created for introducing temporal profiles and speciation of the emissions. The biogenic emissions of VOC are estimated by the model SMOKE. The simulations were carried out for years 2000-2007. The numerical experiments have been carried out for different emission scenarios, which makes it possible the contribution of emissions from different source categories to be evaluated. The Models-3 Integrated Process Rate Analysis option is applied to discriminate the role of different dynamic and chemical processes for the air pollution formation. The obtained ensemble of numerical simulation results is extensive enough to allow statistical treatment calculating not only the mean concentrations and different source categories contribution mean fields, but also standard deviations, skewness, etc. with their dominant temporal modes (seasonal and/or diurnal variations). Thus some basic facts about the atmospheric composition climate of Bulgaria can be retrieved from the simulation ensemble. (Author)

  12. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year's work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals

  13. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

  14. Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Deushi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

  15. Animating climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    DaPonte, John S.; Sadowski, Thomas; Thomas, Paul

    2006-05-01

    This paper describes a collaborative project conducted by the Computer Science Department at Southern Connecticut State University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS). Animations of output from a climate simulation math model used at GISS to predict rainfall and circulation have been produced for West Africa from June to September 2002. These early results have assisted scientists at GISS in evaluating the accuracy of the RM3 climate model when compared to similar results obtained from satellite imagery. The results presented below will be refined to better meet the needs of GISS scientists and will be expanded to cover other geographic regions for a variety of time frames.

  16. Atmospheric Deposition Modeling Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This asset provides data on model results for dry and total deposition of sulfur, nitrogen and base cation species. Components include deposition velocities, dry...

  17. Atmospheric CO2 and climate: Importance of the transient response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, S.H.; Thompson, S.L.

    1981-01-01

    Preliminary studies suggest that the thermal inertia of the upper layers of the oceans, combined with vertical mixing of deeper oceanic waters, could delay the response of the globally averaged surface temperature to an increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration by a decade or so relative to equilibrium calculations. This study extends the global analysis of the transient response to zonal averages, using a hierarchy of simple energy balance models and vertical mixing assumptions for water exchange between upper and deeper oceanic layers. It is found that because of the latitudinal dependence of both thermal inertia and radiative and dynamic energy exchange mechanisms, the approach toward equilibrium of the surface temperature of various regions of the earth will be significantly different from the global average approach. This suggests that the actual time evolution of the horizontal surface temperature gradients--and any associated regional climatic anomalies-may well be significantly different from that suggested by equilibrium climatic modeling simulations (or those computed with a highly unrealistic geographic distribution of ocean thermal capacity). Also, the transient response as a function of latitude is significantly different between globally equivalent CO 2 and solar constant focusing runs. It is suggested that the nature of the transient response is a major uncertainty in characterizing the CO 2 problem and that study of this topic should become a major priority for future research. An appendix puts this issue in the context of the overall CO 2 problem

  18. Swell impact on wind stress and atmospheric mixing in a regional coupled atmosphere-wave model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Lichuan; Rutgersson, Anna; Sahlée, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Over the ocean, the atmospheric turbulence can be significantly affected by swell waves. Change in the atmospheric turbulence affects the wind stress and atmospheric mixing over swell waves. In this study, the influence of swell on atmospheric mixing and wind stress is introduced into an atmosphere-wave-coupled...... regional climate model, separately and combined. The swell influence on atmospheric mixing is introduced into the atmospheric mixing length formula by adding a swell-induced contribution to the mixing. The swell influence on the wind stress under wind-following swell, moderate-range wind, and near......-neutral and unstable stratification conditions is introduced by changing the roughness length. Five year simulation results indicate that adding the swell influence on atmospheric mixing has limited influence, only slightly increasing the near-surface wind speed; in contrast, adding the swell influence on wind stress...

  19. Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mearns, L.O.

    1990-01-01

    One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

  20. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  1. Models for infrared atmospheric radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, S. N.

    1976-01-01

    Line and band models for infrared spectral absorption are discussed. Radiative transmittance and integrated absorptance of Lorentz, Doppler, and voigt line profiles were compared for a range of parameters. It was found that, for the intermediate path lengths, the combined Lorentz-Doppler (Voigt) profile is essential in calculating the atmospheric transmittance. Narrow band model relations for absorptance were used to develop exact formulations for total absorption by four wide band models. Several continuous correlations for the absorption of a wide band model were compared with the numerical solutions of the wide band models. By employing the line-by-line and quasi-random band model formulations, computational procedures were developed for evaluating transmittance and upwelling atmospheric radiance. Homogeneous path transmittances were calculated for selected bands of CO, CO2, and N2O and compared with experimental measurements. The upwelling radiance and signal change in the wave number interval of the CO fundamental band were also calculated.

  2. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

  3. Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE. Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Christopher J; Tabor, Clay; White, Joseph D

    2015-06-12

    The percentage of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. A new 2D climate model with chemistry and self consistent eddy-parameterization. The impact of airplane NO{sub x} on the chemistry of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gepraegs, R; Schmitz, G; Peters, D [Institut fuer Atmosphaerenphysik, Kuehlungsborn (Germany)

    1998-12-31

    A 2D version of the ECHAM T21 climate model has been developed. The new model includes an efficient spectral transport scheme with implicit diffusion. Furthermore, photodissociation and chemistry of the NCAR 2D model have been incorporated. A self consistent parametrization scheme is used for eddy heat- and momentum flux in the troposphere. It is based on the heat flux parametrization of Branscome and mixing-length formulation for quasi-geostrophic vorticity. Above 150 hPa the mixing-coefficient K{sub yy} is prescribed. Some of the model results are discussed, concerning especially the impact of aircraft NO{sub x} emission on the model chemistry. (author) 6 refs.

  6. A new 2D climate model with chemistry and self consistent eddy-parameterization. The impact of airplane NO{sub x} on the chemistry of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gepraegs, R.; Schmitz, G.; Peters, D. [Institut fuer Atmosphaerenphysik, Kuehlungsborn (Germany)

    1997-12-31

    A 2D version of the ECHAM T21 climate model has been developed. The new model includes an efficient spectral transport scheme with implicit diffusion. Furthermore, photodissociation and chemistry of the NCAR 2D model have been incorporated. A self consistent parametrization scheme is used for eddy heat- and momentum flux in the troposphere. It is based on the heat flux parametrization of Branscome and mixing-length formulation for quasi-geostrophic vorticity. Above 150 hPa the mixing-coefficient K{sub yy} is prescribed. Some of the model results are discussed, concerning especially the impact of aircraft NO{sub x} emission on the model chemistry. (author) 6 refs.

  7. Atmospheric Rivers, Climate Change, and the Howard Hanson Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Shaffer, K.; Brettman, K.

    2017-12-01

    All wintertime extreme precipitation and major flooding events in Western Washington are associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow bands of elevated integrated water vapor transport (IVT) stretching from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the Pacific Northwest coast. Several studies over the last decade have suggested that climate change could impact the intensity, frequency, timing, and structure of Pacific Northwest extreme precipitation. The Howard Hanson Dam is situated on the Green River in the central Cascade Mountains in Western Washington and is operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in Seattle. The reservoir behind the dam has two functions: It is the main water supply for the city of Tacoma and is filled during the summer months, and it is empty during winter months when it is used for flood risk management during AR events, protecting billions of dollars of infrastructure downstream. The reservoir is maintained by the Cascade Mountains' abundant winter snowpack and precipitation. Since the reservoir behind Howard Hanson Dam must be empty before the flood season starts and is reliant on snowpack and precipitation to fill in late spring, impacts due to climate change are important for how the USACE operates and manages flood risk and water supply in the future. This work describes changes in the structure, climatology, and seasonality of cool-season atmospheric rivers influencing the west coast of North America by examining the projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. There are only slight changes in AR frequency and seasonality between historical (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) periods considering the most extreme days (99th percentile) in integrated water vapor transport (IVT) along the West Coast, particularly along the southern part of the U.S. west coast, where some changes in the most extreme events are statistically

  8. Atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with transient climate change and climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colman, Robert A.; Power, Scott B. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2010-06-15

    This study examines in detail the 'atmospheric' radiative feedbacks operating in a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). These feedbacks (defined as the change in top of atmosphere radiation per degree of global surface temperature change) are due to responses in water vapour, lapse rate, clouds and surface albedo. Two types of radiative feedback in particular are considered: those arising from century scale 'transient' warming (from a 1% per annum compounded CO{sub 2} increase), and those operating under the model's own unforced 'natural' variability. The time evolution of the transient (or 'secular') feedbacks is first examined. It is found that both the global strength and the latitudinal distributions of these feedbacks are established within the first two or three decades of warming, and thereafter change relatively little out to 100 years. They also closely approximate those found under equilibrium warming from a 'mixed layer' ocean version of the same model forced by a doubling of CO{sub 2}. These secular feedbacks are then compared with those operating under unforced (interannual) variability. For water vapour, the interannual feedback is only around two-thirds the strength of the secular feedback. The pattern reveals widespread regions of negative feedback in the interannual case, in turn resulting from patterns of circulation change and regions of decreasing as well as increasing surface temperature. Considering the vertical structure of the two, it is found that although positive net mid to upper tropospheric contributions dominate both, they are weaker (and occur lower) under interannual variability than under secular change and are more narrowly confined to the tropics. Lapse rate feedback from variability shows weak negative feedback over low latitudes combined with strong positive feedback in mid-to-high latitudes resulting in no net global feedback - in contrast to the dominant negative low

  9. Modeling of atmospheric pollutant transfers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jourdain, F.

    2007-01-01

    Modeling is today a common tool for the evaluation of the environmental impact of atmospheric pollution events, for the design of air monitoring networks or for the calculation of pollutant concentrations in the ambient air. It is even necessary for the a priori evaluation of the consequences of a pollution plume. A large choice of atmospheric transfer codes exist but no ideal tool is available which allows to model all kinds of situations. The present day approach consists in combining different types of modeling according to the requested results and simulations. The CEA has a solid experience in this domain and has developed independent tools for the impact and safety studies relative to industrial facilities and to the management of crisis situations. (J.S.)

  10. Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

    1980-01-01

    Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

  11. Impact of surface waves in a Regional Climate Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rutgersson, Anna; Sætra, Oyvind; Semedo, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    A coupled regional atmosphere-wave model system is developed with the purpose of investigating the impact of climate changes on the wave field, as well as feed-back effects of the wave field on the atmospheric parameters. This study focuses on the effects of introducing a two-way atmosphere...

  12. A comparison of observed extreme water levels at the German Bight elaborated through an extreme value analysis (EVA) with extremes derived from a regionally coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model (MPI-OM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Jens; Heinrich, Hartmut

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of climate change atmospheric and oceanographic extremes and their potential impacts on coastal regions are of growing concern for governmental authorities responsible for the transportation infrastructure. Highest risks for shipping as well as for rail and road traffic originate from combined effects of extremes of storm surges and heavy rainfall which sometimes lead to insufficient dewatering of inland waterways. The German Ministry of Transport and digital Infrastructure therefore has tasked its Network of Experts to investigate the possible evolutions of extreme threats for low lands and especially for Kiel Canal, which is an important shortcut for shipping between the North and Baltic Seas. In this study we present results of a comparison of an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) carried out on gauge observations and values derived from a coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model (MPI-OM). High water levels at the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas are one of the most important hazards which increase the risk of flooding of the low-lying land and prevents such areas from an adequate dewatering. In this study changes in the intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme water levels (above a selected threshold) are investigated for several gauge stations with data partly reaching back to 1843. Different methods are used for the extreme value statistics, (1) a stationary general Pareto distribution (GPD) model as well as (2) an instationary statistical model for better reproduction of the impact of climate change. Most gauge stations show an increase of the mean water level of about 1-2 mm/year, with a stronger increase of the highest water levels and a decrease (or lower increase) of the lowest water levels. Also, the duration of possible dewatering time intervals for the Kiel-Canal was analysed. The results for the historical gauge station observations are compared to the statistics of modelled water levels from the coupled

  13. Model for Simulation Atmospheric Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1976-01-01

    A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance...... eigenfunctions and estimates of the distributions of the corresponding expansion coefficients. The simulation method utilizes the eigenfunction expansion procedure to produce preliminary time histories of the three velocity components simultaneously. As a final step, a spectral shaping procedure is then applied....... The method is unique in modeling the three velocity components simultaneously, and it is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved. It is concluded that the model provides a practical, operational simulator of atmospheric turbulence....

  14. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  15. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2000-06-01

    A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

  16. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  17. Global biomass burning. Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Biomass burning is a significant source of atmospheric gases and, as such, may contribute to global climate changes. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The chapters in this volume include the following topics: remote sensing of biomass burning from space;geographical distribution of burning; combustion products of burning in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems; burning as a global source of atmospheric gases and particulates; impacts of biomass burning gases and particulates on global climate; and the role of biomass burning on biodiversity and past global extinctions. A total of 1428 references are cited for the 63 chapters. Individual chapters are indexed separately for the data bases

  18. Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales.This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and

  19. Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Jingqiu; Carlton, Annmarie; Cohen, Ronald C.; Brune, William H.; Brown, Steven S.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Pye, Havala O. T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Xu, Lu; McNeill, V. Faye; Tsigaridis, Kostas; McDonald, Brian C.; Warneke, Carsten; Guenther, Alex; Alvarado, Matthew J.; de Gouw, Joost; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Mathur, Rohit; Nolte, Christopher G.; Portmann, Robert W.; Unger, Nadine; Tosca, Mika; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2018-02-01

    Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales.This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we

  20. Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model. 2; New Insights into Modeling the Pre-Industrial Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenfell, J. Lee; Shindell, D. T.; Koch, D.; Rind, D.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

  1. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W L [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1996-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  2. The international coordination of climate model validation and intercomparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gates, W.L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

    1995-12-31

    Climate modeling, whereby basic physical laws are used to integrate the physics and dynamics of climate into a consistent system, plays a key role in climate research and is the medium through. Depending upon the portion(s) of the climate system being considered, climate models range from those concerned only with the equilibrium globally-averaged surface temperature to those depicting the 3-dimensional time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Here only the latter class of models are considered, which are commonly known as general circulation models (or GCMs). (author)

  3. Improving practical atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, J.C.R.; Hudson, B.; Thomson, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    The new generation of practical atmospheric dispersion model (for short range ≤ 30 km) are based on dispersion science and boundary layer meteorology which have widespread international acceptance. In addition, recent improvements in computer skills and the widespread availability of small powerful computers make it possible to have new regulatory models which are more complex than the previous generation which were based on charts and simple formulae. This paper describes the basis of these models and how they have developed. Such models are needed to satisfy the urgent public demand for sound, justifiable and consistent environmental decisions. For example, it is preferable that the same models are used to simulate dispersion in different industries; in many countries at present different models are used for emissions from nuclear and fossil fuel power stations. The models should not be so simple as to be suspect but neither should they be too complex for widespread use; for example, at public inquiries in Germany, where simple models are mandatory, it is becoming usual to cite the results from highly complex computational models because the simple models are not credible. This paper is written in a schematic style with an emphasis on tables and diagrams. (au) (22 refs.)

  4. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  5. Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gifford, F.A.

    1976-01-01

    Pollutants are introduced into the air by many of man's activities. The potentially harmful effects these can cause are, broadly speaking, of two kinds: long-term, possibly large-scale and wide-spread chronic effects, including long-term effects on the earth's climate; and acute, short-term effects such as those associated with urban air pollution. This section is concerned with mathematical cloud or plume models describing the role of the atmosphere, primarily in relation to the second of these, the acute effects of air pollution, i.e., those arising from comparatively high concentration levels. The need for such air pollution modeling studies has increased spectacularly as a result of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1968 and, especially, two key court decisions; the Calvert Cliffs decision, and the Sierra Club ruling on environmental non-degradation

  6. Simulation of influence of some climatic factors on radiocarbon concentration in the Earth atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhmetkereev, S.Kh.; Dergachev, V.A.

    1981-01-01

    The effect of different climatic factors on radiocarbon concentration in the Earth atmosphere is analyzed by modelling the exchange radiocarbon system. It is supposed that the exchange system consists of four reservoirs: long-lived surface vegetation and its remnants, the atmosphere, surface layer of the World ocean. It is shown that the variations of the ocean temperature and the variations in CO 2 amount in the atmosphere connected with it do not affect the atmosphere radiocarbon concentration. Variations in the square of sea ice on the time scale of >=1000 years could bring about variations in the 14 C concentration with the amplitude up to 1%. 14 C concentration in the atmosphere in the icing maximum 18 thousands of years ago was 7% higher than present concentration [ru

  7. Frontiers in Atmospheric Chemistry Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Meleux, Frederik; Rouïl, Laurence

    2013-04-01

    The first pan-European kilometre-scale atmospheric chemistry simulation is introduced. The continental-scale air pollution episode of January 2009 is modelled with the CHIMERE offline chemistry-transport model with a massive grid of 2 million horizontal points, performed on 2000 CPU of a high performance computing system hosted by the Research and Technology Computing Center at the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CCRT/CEA). Besides the technical challenge, which demonstrated the robustness of the selected air quality model, we discuss the added value in terms of air pollution modelling and decision support. The comparison with in-situ observations shows that model biases are significantly improved despite some spurious added spatial variability attributed to shortcomings in the emission downscaling process and coarse resolution of the meteorological fields. The increased spatial resolution is clearly beneficial for the detection of exceedances and exposure modelling. We reveal small scale air pollution patterns that highlight the contribution of city plumes to background air pollution levels. Up to a factor 5 underestimation of the fraction of population exposed to detrimental levels of pollution can be obtained with a coarse simulation if subgrid scale correction such as urban increments are ignored. This experiment opens new perspectives for environmental decision making. After two decades of efforts to reduce air pollutant emissions across Europe, the challenge is now to find the optimal trade-off between national and local air quality management strategies. While the first approach is based on sectoral strategies and energy policies, the later builds upon new alternatives such as urban development. The strategies, the decision pathways and the involvement of individual citizen differ, and a compromise based on cost and efficiency must be found. We illustrated how high performance computing in atmospheric science can contribute to this

  8. Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Chiswell, S. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Kurzeja, R. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Maze, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Viner, B. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Werth, D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-29

    Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

  9. Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Ivar S.A.; Gauss, Michael; Myhre, Gunnar; Walter Anthony, Katey M.; Ruppel, Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.

  10. Stochastic models for atmospheric dispersion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    Simple stochastic differential equation models have been applied by several researchers to describe the dispersion of tracer particles in the planetary atmospheric boundary layer and to form the basis for computer simulations of particle paths. To obtain the drift coefficient, empirical vertical...... positions close to the boundaries. Different rules have been suggested in the literature with justifications based on simulation studies. Herein the relevant stochastic differential equation model is formulated in a particular way. The formulation is based on the marginal transformation of the position...... velocity distributions that depend on height above the ground both with respect to standard deviation and skewness are substituted into the stationary Fokker/Planck equation. The particle position distribution is taken to be uniform *the well/mixed condition( and also a given dispersion coefficient...

  11. MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

    1992-01-01

    An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

  12. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.

  13. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Processes Affecting Predictability in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Subramanian, A. C.; Seo, H.; Eliashiv, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Predictions of the ocean and atmosphere are often sensitive to coupling at the air-sea interface in ways that depend on the temporal and spatial scales of the target fields. We will discuss several aspects of these types of coupled interactions including oceanic and atmospheric forecast applications. For oceanic mesoscale eddies, the coupling can influence the energetics of the oceanic flow itself. For Madden-Julian Oscillation onset, the coupling timestep should resolve the diurnal cycle to properly raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux prior to deep convection. For Atmospheric River events, the evolving SST field can alter the trajectory and intensity of precipitation anomalies along the California coast. Improvements in predictions will also rely on identifying and alleviating sources of biases in the climate states of the coupled system. Surprisingly, forecast skill can also be improved by enhancing stochastic variability in the atmospheric component of coupled models as found in a multiscale ensemble modeling approach.

  14. Can climate sensitivity be estimated from short-term relationships of top-of-atmosphere net radiation and surface temperature?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Bing; Min Qilong; Sun Wenbo; Hu Yongxiang; Fan, Tai-Fang

    2011-01-01

    Increasing the knowledge in climate radiative feedbacks is critical for current climate studies. This work focuses on short-term relationships between global mean surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation. The relationships may be used to characterize the climate feedback as suggested by some recent studies. As those recent studies, an energy balance model with ocean mixed layer and both radiative and non-radiative heat sources is used here. The significant improvement of current model is that climate system memories are considered. Based on model simulations, short-term relationship between global mean surface temperature and TOA net radiation (or the linear striation feature as suggested by previous studies) might represent climate feedbacks when the system had no memories. However, climate systems with the same short-term feedbacks but different memories would have a similar linear striation feature. This linear striation feature reflects only fast components of climate feedbacks and may not represent the total climate feedback even when the memory length of climate systems is minimal. The potential errors in the use of short-term relationships in estimations of climate sensitivity could be big. In short time scales, fast climate processes may overwhelm long-term climate feedbacks. Thus, the climate radiative feedback parameter obtained from short-term data may not provide a reliable estimate of climate sensitivity. This result also suggests that long-term observations of global surface temperature and TOA radiation are critical in the understanding of climate feedbacks and sensitivities.

  15. Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    influences) exists so far. Establishing such a trace first-time in form of the Reference Occultation Processing System rOPS, providing reference RO data for climate science and applications, is therefore a current cornerstone endeavor at the Wegener Center over 2011 to 2015, supported also by colleagues from other key groups at EUMETSAT Darmstadt, UCAR Boulder, DMI Copenhagen, ECMWF Reading, IAP Moscow, AIUB Berne, and RMIT Melbourne. With the rOPS we undertake to process the full chain from the SI-tied raw data to the atmospheric ECVs with integrated uncertainty propagation. We summarize where we currently stand in quantifying RO accuracy and long-term stability and then discuss the concept, development status and initial results from the rOPS, with emphasis on its novel capability to provide SI-tied reference data with integrated uncertainty estimation. We comment how these data can provide ground-breaking support to challenges such as climate model evaluation, anthropogenic change detection and attribution, and calibration of complementary climate observing systems.

  16. Observations and Modeling of Atmospheric Radiance Structure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wintersteiner, Peter

    2001-01-01

    The overall purpose of the work that we have undertaken is to provide new capabilities for observing and modeling structured radiance in the atmosphere, particularly the non-LTE regions of the atmosphere...

  17. Infrared radiation parameterizations in numerical climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Kratz, David P.; Ridgway, William

    1991-01-01

    This study presents various approaches to parameterizing the broadband transmission functions for utilization in numerical climate models. One-parameter scaling is applied to approximate a nonhomogeneous path with an equivalent homogeneous path, and the diffuse transmittances are either interpolated from precomputed tables or fit by analytical functions. Two-parameter scaling is applied to parameterizing the carbon dioxide and ozone transmission functions in both the lower and middle atmosphere. Parameterizations are given for the nitrous oxide and methane diffuse transmission functions.

  18. Estimations of climate sensitivity based on top-of-atmosphere radiation imbalance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Lin

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the accuracy in predicting the response of the Earth's climate to the increase of CO2 concentration within the atmosphere. This study explores a potential to reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimations using energy balance analysis, especially top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation imbalance. The time-scales studied generally cover from decade to century, that is, middle-range climate sensitivity is considered, which is directly related to the climate issue caused by atmospheric CO2 change. The significant difference between current analysis and previous energy balance models is that the current study targets at the boundary condition problem instead of solving the initial condition problem. Additionally, climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport are considered. The climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance and surface temperature measurements of the present climate. In this study, the TOA imbalance value of 0.85 W/m2 is used. Note that this imbalance value has large uncertainties. Based on this value, a positive climate feedback with a feedback coefficient ranging from −1.3 to −1.0 W/m2/K is found. The range of feedback coefficient is determined by climate system memory. The longer the memory, the stronger the positive feedback. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70~120 years mainly owing to the deep ocean heat transport, implying that the system may be not in an equilibrium state under the external forcing during the industrial era. For the doubled-CO2 climate (or 3.7 W/m2 forcing, the estimated global warming would be 3.1 K if the current estimate of 0.85 W/m2 TOA net radiative heating could be confirmed. With accurate long-term measurements of TOA radiation, the analysis method suggested by this study provides a great potential in the

  19. Modelling Interglacial Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

    the impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate......Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system......, with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover...

  20. Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Bhatt, Bhuwan C.; Duane, Gregory S.

    2017-12-01

    The supermodel strategy interactively combines several models to outperform the individual models comprising it. A key advantage of the approach is that nonlinear improvements can be achieved, in contrast to the linear weighted combination of individual unconnected models. This property is found in a climate supermodel constructed by coupling two versions of an atmospheric model differing only in their convection scheme to a single ocean model. The ocean model receives a weighted combination of the momentum and heat fluxes. Optimal weights can produce a supermodel with a basic state similar to observations: a single Intertropical Convergence zone (ITCZ), with a western Pacific warm pool and an equatorial cold tongue. This is in stark contrast to the erroneous double ITCZ pattern simulated by both of the two stand-alone coupled models. By varying weights, we develop a conceptual scheme to explain how combining the momentum fluxes of the two different atmospheric models affects equatorial upwelling and surface wind feedback so as to give a realistic basic state in the tropical Pacific. In particular, we propose a mechanism based on the competing influences of equatorial zonal wind and off-equatorial wind stress curl in driving equatorial upwelling in the coupled models. Our results show how nonlinear ocean-atmosphere interaction is essential in combining these two effects to build different sea surface temperature structures, some of which are realistic. They also provide some insight into observed and modelled tropical Pacific climate.

  1. Observations. Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. Chapter 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trenberth, K.E.; Jones, P.D.; Ambenje, P.; Bojariu, R.; Easterling, D.; Klein Tank, A.; Parker, D.; Rahimzadeh, F.; Renwick, J.A.; Rusticucci, M.; Soden, B.; Zhai, P.

    2007-09-15

    This chapter assesses the observed changes in surface and atmospheric climate, placing new observations and new analyses made during the past six years (since the Third Assessment Report TAR) in the context of the previous instrumental record. In previous IPCC reports, palaeo-observations from proxy data for the pre-instrumental past and observations from the ocean and ice domains were included within the same chapter. This helped the overall assessment of the consistency among the various variables and their synthesis into a coherent picture of change. A short synthesis and scrutiny of the consistency of all the observations is included here (see Section 3.9). In the TAR, surface temperature trends were examined from 1860 to 2000 globally, for 1901 to 2000 as maps and for three sub-periods (1910-1945, 1946-1975 and 1976-2000). The first and third sub-periods had rising temperatures, while the second sub-period had relatively stable global mean temperatures. The 1976 divide is the date of a widely acknowledged 'climate shift' and seems to mark a time when global mean temperatures began a discernible upward trend that has been at least partly attributed to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The picture prior to 1976 has essentially not changed and is therefore not repeated in detail here. However, it is more convenient to document the sub-period after 1979, rather than 1976, owing to the availability of increased and improved satellite data since then (in particular Television InfraRed Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data) in association with the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) of 1979. The post-1979 period allows, for the first time, a global perspective on many fields of variables, such as precipitation, that was not previously available. The availability of high-quality data has led to a focus on the post-1978 period, although physically this new regime seems to have begun in 1976

  2. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Both the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report stressed the need for the...

  3. Atmospheric CO2 and abrupt climate change on submillennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jinho; Brook, Edward

    2010-05-01

    How atmospheric CO2 varies and is controlled on various time scales and under various boundary conditions is important for understanding how the carbon cycle and climate change are linked. Ancient air preserved in ice cores provides important information on past variations in atmospheric CO2. In particular, concentration records for intervals of abrupt climate change may improve understanding of mechanisms that govern atmospheric CO2. We present new multi-decadal CO2 records that cover Greenland stadial 9 (between Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events 8 and 9) and the abrupt cooling event at 8.2 ka. The CO2 records come from Antarctic ice cores but are well synchronized with Greenland ice core records using new high-resolution CH4 records,precisely defining the timing of CO2 change with respect to abrupt climate events in Greenland. Previous work showed that during stadial 9 (40~38 ka), CO2 rose by about 15~20 ppm over around 2,000 years, and at the same time temperatures in Antarctica increased. Dust proxies indicate a decrease in dust flux over the same period. With more detailed data and better age controls we now find that approximately half of the CO2 increase during stadial 9 occurred abruptly, over the course of decades to a century at ~39.6 ka. The step increase of CO2 is synchronous with a similar step increase of Antarctic isotopic temperature and a small abrupt change in CH4, and lags after the onset of decrease in dust flux by ~400 years. New atmospheric CO2 records at the well-known ~8.2 ka cooling event were obtained from Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica. Our preliminary CO2 data span 900 years and include 19 data points within the 8.2 ka cooling event, which persisted for ~160 years (Thomas et al., Quarternary Sci. Rev., 2007). We find that CO2 increased by 2~4 ppm during that cooling event. Further analyses will improve the resolution and better constrain the CO2 variability during other times in the early Holocene to determine if the variations observed

  4. The effects of anthropogenous on atmosphere and climate. Anthropogene Beeinflussung des Klimas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany, F.R.) Hamburg Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Meteorologisches Inst.

    1989-11-01

    The mostly uncontrolled emission of trace gases varies the composition of the atmosphere. Since some of the trace gases are emitted belong to the group of greenhouse gases and many of them are quite stable, and thus spread world wide, a global change to the radiation balance is inevitable. The present state of knowledge can be summarized by presenting the basic physical effects, the growth rates of the gases and their sources, the relative proportion of additional greenhouse effects and climatic variations calculated using models of the climate. (orig.).

  5. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  6. Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Grosfeld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960. Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

  7. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III.

    1992-08-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling

  8. Elevated atmospheric CO2 negatively impacts photosynthesis through radiative forcing and physiology-mediated climate feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Peng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Ciais, Philippe; Welp, Lisa; Li, Wenyu; Xin, Qinchuan

    2017-02-01

    Increasing atmospheric CO2 affects photosynthesis involving directly increasing leaf carboxylation rates, stomatal closure, and climatic effects. The direct effects are generally thought to be positive leading to increased photosynthesis, while its climatic effects can be regionally positive or negative. These effects are usually considered to be independent from each other, but they are in fact coupled through interactions between land surface exchanges of gases and heat and the physical climate system. In particular, stomatal closure reduces evapotranspiration and increases sensible heat emissions from ecosystems, leading to decreased atmospheric moisture and precipitation and local warming. We use a coupled earth system model to attribute the influence of the increase in CO2 on gross primary productivity (GPP) during the period of 1930-2011. In our model, CO2 radiative effects cause climate change that has only a negligible effect on global GPP (a reduction of 0.9 ± 2% during the last 80 years) because of opposite responses between tropical and northern biomes. On the other hand, CO2 physiological effects on GPP are both positive, by increased carboxylation rates and water use efficiency (7.1 ± 0.48% increase), and negative, by vegetation-climate feedback reducing precipitation, as a consequence of decreased transpiration and increased sensible heat in areas without water limitation (2.7 ± 1.76% reduction).When considering the coupled atmosphere-vegetation system, negative climate feedback on photosynthesis and plant growth due to the current level of CO2 opposes 29-38% of the gains from direct fertilization effects.

  9. Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

  10. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the long-term control of the Earth's climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Carver

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available A CO2-weathering model has been used to explore the possible evolution of the Earth's climate as the Sun steadily brightened throughout geologic time. The results of the model calculations can be described in terms of three, qualitatively different, "Megaclimates". Mega-climate 1 resulted from a period of rapid outgassing in the early Archean, with high, but declining, temperatures caused by the small weathering rates on a largely water-covered planet. Mega-climate 2 began about 3 Gyear ago as major continental land masses developed, increasing the weathering rate in the early Proterozoic and thereby depleting the atmospheric CO2 concentration. This process produced the first Precambrian glaciations about 2.3 Gyear ago. During Mega-climate 2, evolutionary biological processes increased the surface weatherability in incremental steps and plate tectonics modulated the CO2 outgassing rate with an estimated period of 150 Myear (approximately one-half the period for the formation and breakup of super continents. Throughout Mega-climate 2 the surface temperature was controlled by variations in the atmospheric CO2 level allowing transitions between glacial and non-glacial conditions. The results of the model for Mega-climate 2 are in agreement with the occurrence (and absence of glaciations in the geologic record. Extending the model to the future suggests that CO2 control of the Earth's temperature will no longer be able to compensate for a solar flux that continues to increase. The present level of atmospheric CO2 is so small that further reduction in CO2 cannot prevent the Earth from experiencing Mega-climate 3 with steadily increasing surface temperatures caused by the continued brightening of the Sun. During Mega-climate 3, the main danger to the biosphere would come not from an increasing temperature but from a decreasing (rather than an increasing CO2 level which could, in time, fall below 0.5 PAL, causing serious damage to the biosphere

  11. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the long-term control of the Earth's climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Carver

    Full Text Available A CO2-weathering model has been used to explore the possible evolution of the Earth's climate as the Sun steadily brightened throughout geologic time. The results of the model calculations can be described in terms of three, qualitatively different, "Megaclimates". Mega-climate 1 resulted from a period of rapid outgassing in the early Archean, with high, but declining, temperatures caused by the small weathering rates on a largely water-covered planet. Mega-climate 2 began about 3 Gyear ago as major continental land masses developed, increasing the weathering rate in the early Proterozoic and thereby depleting the atmospheric CO2 concentration. This process produced the first Precambrian glaciations about 2.3 Gyear ago. During Mega-climate 2, evolutionary biological processes increased the surface weatherability in incremental steps and plate tectonics modulated the CO2 outgassing rate with an estimated period of 150 Myear (approximately one-half the period for the formation and breakup of super continents. Throughout Mega-climate 2 the surface temperature was controlled by variations in the atmospheric CO2 level allowing transitions between glacial and non-glacial conditions. The results of the model for Mega-climate 2 are in agreement with the occurrence (and absence of glaciations in the geologic record. Extending the model to the future suggests that CO2 control of the Earth's temperature will no longer be able to compensate for a solar flux that continues to increase. The present level of atmospheric CO2 is so small that further reduction in CO2 cannot prevent the Earth from experiencing Mega-climate 3 with steadily increasing surface temperatures caused by the continued brightening of the Sun. During Mega-climate 3, the main danger to the biosphere would come not from an increasing temperature but from a decreasing (rather than an increasing CO2

  12. Habitability of waterworlds: runaway greenhouses, atmospheric expansion, and multiple climate states of pure water atmospheres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldblatt, Colin

    2015-05-01

    There are four different stable climate states for pure water atmospheres, as might exist on so-called "waterworlds." I map these as a function of solar constant for planets ranging in size from Mars-sized to 10 Earth-mass. The states are as follows: globally ice covered (Ts ⪅ 245 K), cold and damp (270 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 290 K), hot and moist (350 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 550 K), and very hot and dry (Tsx2A86;900 K). No stable climate exists for 290 ⪅ T s ⪅ 350 K or 550 ⪅ Ts ⪅ 900 K. The union of hot moist and cold damp climates describes the liquid water habitable zone, the width and location of which depends on planet mass. At each solar constant, two or three different climate states are stable. This is a consequence of strong nonlinearities in both thermal emission and the net absorption of sunlight. Across the range of planet sizes, I account for the atmospheres expanding to high altitudes as they warm. The emitting and absorbing surfaces (optical depth of unity) move to high altitude, making their area larger than the planet surface, so more thermal radiation is emitted and more sunlight absorbed (the former dominates). The atmospheres of small planets expand more due to weaker gravity; the effective runaway greenhouse threshold is about 35 W m(-2) higher for Mars, 10 W m(-2) higher for Earth or Venus, but only a few W m(-2) higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet. There is an underlying (expansion-neglected) trend of increasing runaway greenhouse threshold with planetary size (40 W m(-2) higher for a 10 Earth-mass planet than for Mars). Summing these opposing trends means that Venus-sized (or slightly smaller) planets are most susceptible to a runaway greenhouse. The habitable zone for pure water atmospheres is very narrow, with an insolation range of 0.07 times the solar constant. A wider habitable zone requires background gas and greenhouse gas: N2 and CO2 on Earth, which are biologically controlled. Thus, habitability depends on inhabitance.

  13. Future changes of the atmospheric composition and the impact of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grewe, V.; Dameris, M.; Hein, R.; Sausen, R. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Steil, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut), Mainz (Germany). Abt. Chemie der Atmosphaere

    1999-05-01

    The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition, with respect of NO{sub y} and O{sub 3} is investigated by means of the off-line coupled dynamic-chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO{sub x} and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO{sub x} and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamic parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, i.e. wind speed, diabatic circulation, stratosphere-troposphere-exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate-chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major role for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO{sub y} and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. (orig.)

  14. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  15. Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Cederlöf

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Observed near-surface temperature trends during the period 1979–2014 show large differences between land and ocean, with positive values over land (0.25–0.27 °C/decade that are significantly larger than over the ocean (0.06–0.12 °C/decade. Temperature trends in the mid-troposphere of 0.08-0.11 °C/decade, on the other hand, are similar for both land and ocean and agree closely with the ocean surface temperature trend. The lapse rate is consequently systematically larger over land than over the ocean and also shows a positive trend in most land areas. This is puzzling as a response to external warming, such as from increasing greenhouse gases, is broadly the same throughout the troposphere. The reduced tropospheric warming trend over land suggests a weaker vertical temperature coupling indicating that some of the processes in the planetary boundary layer such as inversions have a limited influence on the temperature of the free atmosphere. Alternatively, the temperature of the free atmosphere is influenced by advection of colder tropospheric air from the oceans. It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. We also conclude that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim can be used to obtain consistent temperature trends through the depth of the atmosphere, as they are consistent both with near-surface temperature trends and atmospheric temperature trends obtained from microwave sounding sensors.

  16. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Atmospheric Layer Temperatures, Version 3.3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Atmospheric Layer Temperature Climate Data Record (CDR) dataset is a monthly analysis of the tropospheric and stratospheric data using temperature sounding...

  17. Climatic Evolution and Habitability of Terrestrial Planets: Perspectives from Coupled Atmosphere-Mantle Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu Sarkar, D.; Moore, W. B.

    2016-12-01

    A multitude of factors including the distance from the host star and the stage of planetary evolution affect planetary climate and habitability. The complex interactions between the atmosphere and dynamics of the deep interior of the planets along with stellar fluxes present a formidable challenge. This work employs simplified approaches to address these complex issues in a systematic way. To be specific, we are investigating the coupled evolution of atmosphere and mantle dynamics. The overarching goal here is to simulate the evolutionary history of the terrestrial planets, for example Venus, Earth and Mars. This research also aims at deciphering the history of Venus-like runaway greenhouse and thus explore the possibility of cataclysmic shifts in climate of Earth-like planets. We focus on volatile cycling within the solid planets to understand the role of carbon/water in climatic and tectonic outcomes of such planets. In doing so, we are considering the feedbacks in the coupled mantle-atmosphere system. The primary feedback between the atmosphere and mantle is the surface temperature established by the greenhouse effect, which regulates the temperature gradient that drives the mantle convection and controls the rate at which volatiles are exchanged through weathering. We start our models with different initial assumptions to determine the final climate outcomes within a reasonable parameter space. Currently, there are very few planetary examples, to sample the climate outcomes, however this will soon change as exoplanets are discovered and examined. Therefore, we will be able to work with a significant number of potential candidates to answer questions like this one: For every Earth is there one Venus? ten? a thousand?

  18. The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Hoskins, Brian; Shepherd, Ted

    2016-04-01

    Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region which may have large socio-economic impacts. However, there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected precipitation reduction and this limits the possibility to inform effective adaptation planning. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the precipitation change and the time of emergence of the Mediterranean precipitation response. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. We also find that the precipitation response to climate change might already emerge from internal variability by 2025 relative to 1960-1990 according to the climate models with a large circulation response. This implies that it might soon be possible to test model projections using observations. Finally, some of the mechanisms which are important for the Mediterranean circulation response in the CMIP5 models are discussed.

  19. Assessing the Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions under Climate Change on Air Quality Profile over Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei Tong, Cheuk

    2017-04-01

    Small particulates can cause long term impairment to human health as they can penetrate deep and deposit on the wall of the respiratory system. Under the projected climate change as reported by literature, atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality Hong Kong, is also varying from near to far future. In addition to domestic emission, Hong Kong receives also significant concentration of cross-boundary particulates that their natures and movements are correlated with atmospheric condition. This study aims to study the relation of atmospheric conditions with air quality over Hong Kong. Past meteorological data is based on Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. Radiosonde data provided from HKO are also adopted in testing and validating the data. Future meteorological data is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which dynamically downscaled the past and future climate under the A1B scenario simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM. Air quality data is collected on one hand from the ground station data provided by Environment Protection Department, with selected stations revealing local emission and trans-boundary emission respectively. On the other hand, an Atmospheric Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), which operates using the radar principle to detect Rayleigh and Mie scattering from atmospheric gas and aerosols, has also been adopted to measure vertical aerosol profile, which has been observed tightly related to the high level meteorology. Data from scattered signals are collected, averaged or some episode selected for characteristic comparison with the atmospheric stability indices and other meteorological factors. The relation between atmospheric conditions and air quality is observed by statistical analysis, and statistical models are built based on the stability indices to project the changes in sulphur dioxide, ozone and particulate

  20. Identifying misbehaving models using baseline climate variance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-06-01

    The majority of projections made using general circulation models (GCMs) are conducted to help tease out the effects on a region, or on the climate system as a whole, of changing climate dynamics. Sun et al., however, used model runs from 20 different coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs to try to understand a different aspect of climate projections: how bias correction, model selection, and other statistical techniques might affect the estimated outcomes. As a case study, the authors focused on predicting the potential change in precipitation for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a 1-million- square- kilometer area in southeastern Australia that suffered a recent decade of drought that left many wondering about the potential impacts of climate change on this important agricultural region. The authors first compared the precipitation predictions made by the models with 107 years of observations, and they then made bias corrections to adjust the model projections to have the same statistical properties as the observations. They found that while the spread of the projected values was reduced, the average precipitation projection for the end of the 21st century barely changed. Further, the authors determined that interannual variations in precipitation for the MDB could be explained by random chance, where the precipitation in a given year was independent of that in previous years.

  1. Modelling of pollution dispersion in atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borysiewicz, M.; Stankiewicz, R.

    1994-01-01

    The paper contains the review of the mathematical foundation of atmospheric dispersion models. The atmospheric phenomena relevant to atmospheric dispersion model are discussed. In particular the parametrization of processes with time and space scales smaller than numerical grid size, limited by available computer power, is presented. The special attention was devoted to similarity theory and parametrization of boundary layer. The numerical methods are analysed and the drawbacks of the method are presented. (author). 99 refs, 15 figs, 3 tabs

  2. Climate models on massively parallel computers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vitart, F.; Rouvillois, P.

    1993-01-01

    First results got on massively parallel computers (Multiple Instruction Multiple Data and Simple Instruction Multiple Data) allow to consider building of coupled models with high resolutions. This would make possible simulation of thermoaline circulation and other interaction phenomena between atmosphere and ocean. The increasing of computers powers, and then the improvement of resolution will go us to revise our approximations. Then hydrostatic approximation (in ocean circulation) will not be valid when the grid mesh will be of a dimension lower than a few kilometers: We shall have to find other models. The expert appraisement got in numerical analysis at the Center of Limeil-Valenton (CEL-V) will be used again to imagine global models taking in account atmosphere, ocean, ice floe and biosphere, allowing climate simulation until a regional scale

  3. Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

    1994-01-01

    The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

  4. Modeling of particle mixing in the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Shupeng

    2015-01-01

    This thesis presents a newly developed size-composition resolved aerosol model (SCRAM), which is able to simulate the dynamics of externally-mixed particles in the atmosphere, and evaluates its performance in three-dimensional air-quality simulations. The main work is split into four parts. First, the research context of external mixing and aerosol modelling is introduced. Secondly, the development of the SCRAM box model is presented along with validation tests. Each particle composition is defined by the combination of mass-fraction sections of its chemical components or aggregates of components. The three main processes involved in aerosol dynamic (nucleation, coagulation, condensation/ evaporation) are included in SCRAM. The model is first validated by comparisons with published reference solutions for coagulation and condensation/evaporation of internally-mixed particles. The particle mixing state is investigated in a 0-D simulation using data representative of air pollution at a traffic site in Paris. The relative influence on the mixing state of the different aerosol processes and of the algorithm used to model condensation/evaporation (dynamic evolution or bulk equilibrium between particles and gas) is studied. Then, SCRAM is integrated into the Polyphemus air quality platform and used to conduct simulations over Greater Paris during the summer period of 2009. This evaluation showed that SCRAM gives satisfactory results for both PM2.5/PM10 concentrations and aerosol optical depths, as assessed from comparisons to observations. Besides, the model allows us to analyze the particle mixing state, as well as the impact of the mixing state assumption made in the modelling on particle formation, aerosols optical properties, and cloud condensation nuclei activation. Finally, two simulations are conducted during the winter campaign of MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric Pollution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for

  5. Multi-year GNSS monitoring of atmospheric IWV over Central and South America for climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Luciano; Bianchi, Clara; Fernández, Laura; Natali, María Paula; Meza, Amalia; Moirano, Juan

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric water vapour has been acknowledged as an essential climate variable. Weather prediction and hazard assessment systems benefit from real-time observations, whereas long-term records contribute to climate studies. Nowadays, ground-based GNSS products have become widely employed, complementing satellite observations over the oceans. Although the past decade has seen a significant development of the GNSS infrastructure in Central and South America, its potential for atmospheric water vapour monitoring has not been fully exploited. With this in mind, we have performed a regional, seven-year long and homogeneous analysis, comprising 136 GNSS tracking stations, obtaining high-rate and continuous observations of column integrated water vapour and troposphere zenith total delay (Bianchi et al. 2016). As preliminary application for this data set, we have estimated local water vapour trends, their significance, and their relation with specific climate regimes. We have found evidence of drying at temperate regions in South America, at a rate of about 2% per decade, while a slow moistening of the troposphere over tropical regions is also weakly suggested by our results. Furthermore, we have assessed the regional performance of the empirical model GPT2w to blindly estimate troposphere delays. The model fairly reproduces the observed mean delays, including their annual and semi-annual variations. Nevertheless, a long-term evaluation has shown systematical biases, up to 20 mm, probably inherited form the underling atmospheric reanalysis. Additionally, the complete data set has been made openly available at a scientific repository (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.858234). References: C. Bianchi, L. Mendoza, L. Fernandez, M. P. Natali, A. Meza, J. F. Moirano, Multi-year GNSS monitoring of atmospheric IWV over Central and South America for climate studies, Ann. Geophys., ISSN 0992-7689, eISSN 1432-0576, 34 (7), 623-639 (doi:10.5194/angeo-34-623-2016).

  6. Grassland/atmosphere response to changing climate: Coupling regional and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughenour, M.B.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Pielke, R.A.; Eastman, J.

    1993-10-01

    The objectives of the study were: to evaluate the response of grassland ecosystems to atmospheric change at regional and site scales, and to develop multiscaled modeling systems to relate ecological and atmospheric models with different spatial and temporal resolutions. A menu-driven shell was developed to facilitate use of models at different temporal scales and to facilitate exchange information between models at different temporal scales. A detailed ecosystem model predicted that C 3 temperate grasslands wig respond more strongly to elevated CO 2 than temperate C 4 grasslands in the short-term while a large positive N-PP response was predicted for a C 4 Kenyan grassland. Long-term climate change scenarios produced either decreases or increases in Colorado plant productivity (NPP) depending on rainfall, but uniform increases in N-PP were predicted in Kenya. Elevated CO 2 is likely to have little effect on ecosystem carbon storage in Colorado while it will increase carbon storage in Kenya. A synoptic climate classification processor (SCP) was developed to evaluate results of GCM climate sensitivity experiments. Roughly 80% agreement was achieved with manual classifications. Comparison of lx and 2xCO 2 GCM Simulations revealed relatively small differences

  7. Climate, atmosphere, and volatile inventory evolution: polar processes, climate records, volatile inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollack, J.B.

    1988-01-01

    Climate change on Mars was driven by long term changes in the solar luminosity, variations in the partitioning of volatiles between the atmosphere and near-surface reservoirs, and astronomical variations in axial and orbital properties. There are important parallels between these drives for Mars and comparable ones for Earth. In the early history of the solar system, the Sun's luminosity was 25 to 30 percent lower than its current value. It is suggested that an early benign climate on Earth was due to the presence of much more carbon dioxide in its atmosphere at these early times than currently resides there. Such a partitioning of carbon dioxide, at the expense of the carbonate rock reservoir, may have resulted from a more vigorous tectonic and volcanic style at early times. Such a line of reasoning may imply that much more carbon dioxide was present in the Martian atmosphere during the planet's early history than resides there today. It is now widely recognized that astronomical variations of the Earth's axial and orbital characteristics have played a dominant role in causing the succession of glacial and interglacial periods characterizing the last several million years. The magnitude of the axial and eccentricity variations are much larger for Mars than for Earth. Such changes on Mars could result in sizeable variations in atmospheric pressure, dust storm activity, and the stability of perennial carbon dioxide and water ice polar caps. These quasi-periodic climate changes occur on periods of 100,000 to 1,000,000 years and may be recorded in the sedimentary layers of the polar layered terrain

  8. Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

    2005-06-01

    Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

  9. Recent slowdown of atmospheric CO2 amplification due to vegetation-climate feedback over northern lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Xia, J.; Ahlström, A.; Rinke, A.; Koven, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ji, D.; Zhang, G.; Krinner, G.; Chen, G.; Dong, J.; Liang, J.; Moore, J.; Jiang, L.; Yan, L.; Ciais, P.; Peng, S.; Wang, Y.; Xiao, X.; Shi, Z.; McGuire, A. D.; Luo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern high latitudes since 1960s1-3. It remains unclear that whether this mechanism is still robust since 1990s, because a paused vegetation growth increase4,5 and weakened temperature control on CO2 uptake6,7 have been detected during this period. Here, based on in-situ atmospheric CO2 concentration records above northern 50o N, we found a slowdown of the atmospheric CO2 amplification from the mid-1990s to mid-2000s. This phenomenon is associated with the pause of vegetation greening trend and slowdown of spring warming. We further showed that both the vegetation greenness and its growing season length are positively correlated to spring but not autumn temperature from 1982 to 2010 over the northern lands. However, the state-of-art terrestrial biosphere models produce positive responses of gross primary productivity to both spring and autumn warming. These findings emphasize the importance of vegetation-climate feedback in shaping the atmospheric CO2 seasonality, and call for an improved carbon-cycle response to non-uniform seasonal warming at high latitudes in current models.

  10. Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

    2017-04-01

    In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

  11. Computer experiments with a coarse-grid hydrodynamic climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenchikov, G.L.

    1990-01-01

    A climate model is developed on the basis of the two-level Mintz-Arakawa general circulation model of the atmosphere and a bulk model of the upper layer of the ocean. A detailed model of the spectral transport of shortwave and longwave radiation is used to investigate the radiative effects of greenhouse gases. The radiative fluxes are calculated at the boundaries of five layers, each with a pressure thickness of about 200 mb. The results of the climate sensitivity calculations for mean-annual and perpetual seasonal regimes are discussed. The CCAS (Computer Center of the Academy of Sciences) climate model is used to investigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic changes of the optical properties of the atmosphere due to increasing CO 2 content and aerosol pollution, and to calculate the sensitivity to changes of land surface albedo and humidity

  12. Pacific Northwest Laboratory annual report for 1993 to the DOE Office of Energy Research. Part 3: Atmospheric and climate research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-05-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER) atmospheric sciences and carbon dioxide research programs provide the DOE with scientifically defensible information on the local, regional, and global distributions of energy-related pollutants and their effects on climate. PNL has had a long history of technical leadership in the atmospheric sciences research programs within OHER. Within the Environmental Sciences Division of OHER, the Atmospheric Chemistry Program continues DOE`s long-term commitment to understanding the local, regional, and global effects of energy-related air pollutants. Research through direct measurement, numerical modeling, and analytical studies in the Atmospheric Chemistry Program emphasizes the long-range transport, chemical transformation, and removal of emitted pollutants, photochemically produced oxidant species, nitrogen-reservoir species, and aerosols. The atmospheric studies in Complex Terrain Program applies basic research on atmospheric boundary layer structure and evolution over inhomogeneous terrain to DOE`s site-specific and generic mission needs in site safety, air quality, and climate change. Research at PNL provides basic scientific underpinnings to DOE`s program of global climate research. Research projects within the core carbon dioxide and ocean research programs are now integrated with those in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements, the Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics, and Quantitative Links program to form DOE`s contribution to the US Global Change Research Program. The description of ongoing atmospheric and climate research at PNL is organized in two broad research areas: atmospheric research; and climate research. This report describes the progress in fiscal year 1993 in each of these areas. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  13. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewart, Jean Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  14. Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2018-05-01

    This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

  15. Developing Tighter Constraints on Exoplanet Biosignatures by Modeling Atmospheric Haze

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Ryan; Neveu, Marc; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn David; Desch, Steven; Arney, Giada

    2018-01-01

    As we increase our capacity to resolve the atmospheric composition of exoplanets, we must continue to refine our ability to distinguish true biosignatures from false positives in order to ultimately distinguish a life-bearing from a lifeless planet. Of the possible true and false biosignatures, methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are of interest, because on Earth geological and biological processes can produce them on large scales. To identify a biotic, Earth-like exoplanet, we must understand how these biosignatures shape their atmospheres. High atmospheric abundances of CH4 produce photochemical organic haze, which dramatically alters the photochemistry, climate, and spectrum of a planet. Arney et al. (2017) have suggested that haze-bearing atmospheres rich in CO2 may be a type of biosignature because the CH4 flux required to produce the haze is similar to the amount of biogenic CH4 on modern Earth. Atmospheric CH4 and CO2 both affect haze-formation photochemistry, and the potential for hazes to form in Earth-like atmospheres at abiotic concentrations of these gases has not been well studied. We will explore a wide range of parameter space of abiotic concentration levels of these gases to determine what spectral signatures are possible from abiotic environments and look for measurable differences between abiotic and biotic atmospheres. We use a 1D photochemical model with an upgraded haze production mechanism to compare Archean and modern Earth atmospheres to abiotic versions while varying atmospheric CH4 and CO2 levels and atmospheric pressure. We will vary CO2 from a trace gas to an amount such that it dominates atmospheric chemistry. For CH4, there is uncertainty regarding the amount of abiotic CH4 that comes from serpentinizing systems. To address this uncertainty, we will model three cases: 1) assume all CH4 comes from photochemistry; 2) use estimates of modern-day serpentinizing fluxes, assuming they are purely abiotic; and 3) assume serpentinizing

  16. Climate change: Bio-technologies are facing a huge challenge. Why is climate changing? Control and measurement of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Soils at the heart of climate change. Between pollution and climate change, the survival of soil organisms. Modelling microbial degradation in soils to analyse greenhouse gas releases. A threat against plant health. The opinion of the seed industry. Truly living clouds. Language, the other stake of the struggle against climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salas y Melia, David; Delmotte, Marc; Chenu, Claire; Chevallier, Tiphaine; Mougin, Christian; Lamy, Isabelle; Caquet, Thierry; Garnier, Patricia; Sache, Ivan; Pagesse, Pierre; Amato, Pierre; Desprez, Basile; Vernet, Agnes

    2015-01-01

    As the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 decided to react to limit the irrecoverable global warming, this publication, through several articles, outlines that this issue has not progressed at all after 23 years on a political point of view, and has even regressed with respect to initially defined objectives, but has progressed in terms of understanding of climate change under the influence of our production modes, notably in the agriculture sector. Thus, the articles discuss or recall the origin and process of climate change, how greenhouse gas emissions are controlled and measured, how soil are impacted or play a role in climate change as the survival of soil organisms is at stake under the pressure of pollution and climate change, how climate change can be a threat for plants, how the seed industry perceives these issues, how micro-organisms present in the air and clouds are now a topic in atmosphere sciences. The last article discusses the importance of intelligibility of scientific publications on these issues

  17. Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

  18. The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

  19. Modeling of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklouti, Nada

    2010-01-01

    This work is a prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide from a chronic rejection of the nuclear power generating plant that can be located in one of the Tunisian sites: Skhira or Bizerte. Also it contains a study of acute rejection 'Chernobyl accident' which was the reference for the validation of GENII the code of modeling of atmospheric dispersion.

  20. Parameterization of clouds and radiation in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roeckner, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meterology, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-09-01

    Clouds are a very important, yet poorly modeled element in the climate system. There are many potential cloud feedbacks, including those related to cloud cover, height, water content, phase change, and droplet concentration and size distribution. As a prerequisite to studying the cloud feedback issue, this research reports on the simulation and validation of cloud radiative forcing under present climate conditions using the ECHAM general circulation model and ERBE top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes.

  1. Modelling the wind climate of Ireland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, H.P.; Landberg, L.

    1997-01-01

    The wind climate of Ireland has been calculated using the Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model KAMM. The climatology is represented by 65 frequency classes of geostrophic wind that were selected as equiangular direction sectors and speed intervals with equal frequency in a sector. The results...... are compared with data from the European Wind Atlas which have been analyzed using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program, WA(S)P. The prediction of the areas of higher wind power is fair. Stations with low power are overpredicted....

  2. Relative effects of climate and source strength on atmospheric lead concentrations in Auckland, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, H. C.; de Freitas, C. R.; Hay, J. E.

    1992-06-01

    Atmospheric lead levels were examined to assess the consequences of the 46 percent reduction in the lead content of premium grade petrol in New Zealand. Since this change was implemented in July 1986 observed levels of atmospheric lead decreased by 38 percent, but all or part of this reduction may have been due to factors other than fluctuations in lead emissions, notably variations in climate. Analysis of detailed atmospheric lead, meteorological and traffic data measured contemporaneously provided insight into the atmospheric processes influencing lead levels in Auckland and formed the basis of a statistical model capable of predicting monthly lead concentrations. The model was used to predict lead levels in Auckland for the period July 1986 through to July 1989 in the absence of any reduction in the lead content of petrol. Comparison with values observed for the same period showed that all of the reduction in atmospheric lead levels since July 1986 can be attributed to the reduction in the lead content of petrol. Policy planning implications of such a finding are considered.

  3. Modeling the atmospheric chemistry of TICs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, Michael V.; Burns, Douglas S.; Chynwat, Veeradej; Moore, William; Plitz, Angela; Rottmann, Shawn; Hearn, John

    2009-05-01

    An atmospheric chemistry model that describes the behavior and disposition of environmentally hazardous compounds discharged into the atmosphere was coupled with the transport and diffusion model, SCIPUFF. The atmospheric chemistry model was developed by reducing a detailed atmospheric chemistry mechanism to a simple empirical effective degradation rate term (keff) that is a function of important meteorological parameters such as solar flux, temperature, and cloud cover. Empirically derived keff functions that describe the degradation of target toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) were derived by statistically analyzing data generated from the detailed chemistry mechanism run over a wide range of (typical) atmospheric conditions. To assess and identify areas to improve the developed atmospheric chemistry model, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to (1) quantify the sensitivity of the model output (TIC concentrations) with respect to changes in the input parameters and (2) improve, where necessary, the quality of the input data based on sensitivity results. The model predictions were evaluated against experimental data. Chamber data were used to remove the complexities of dispersion in the atmosphere.

  4. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  5. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...

  6. The ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The ECHAM model has been developed from the ECMWF model (cycle 31, November 1988). It contains several changes, mostly in the parameterization, in order to adjust the model for climate simulations. The technical details of the ECHAM operational model are described. (orig./KW)

  7. Atmospheric blocking in the Climate SPHINX simulations: the role of orography and resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davini, Paolo; Corti, Susanna; D'Andrea, Fabio; Riviere, Gwendal; von Hardenberg, Jost

    2017-04-01

    The representation of atmospheric blocking in numerical simulations, especially over the Euro-Atlantic region, still represents a main concern for the climate modelling community. We here discuss the Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric blocking representation in a set of 30-year simulations which has been performed in the framework of the PRACE project "Climate SPHINX". Simulations were run using the EC-Earth Global Climate Model with several ensemble members at 5 different horizontal resolutions (ranging from 125 km to 16 km). Results show that the negative bias in blocking frequency over Europe becomes negligible at resolutions of about 40 km and finer. However, the blocking duration is still underestimated by 1-2 days, suggesting that the correct blocking frequencies are achieved with an overestimation of the number of blocking onsets. The reasons leading to such improvements are then discussed, highlighting the role of orography in shaping the Atlantic jet stream: at higher resolution the jet is weaker and less penetrating over Europe, favoring the breaking of synoptic Rossby waves over the Atlantic stationary ridge and thus increasing the simulated blocking frequency.

  8. Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marti, Olivier; Braconnot, P.; Bellier, J.; Brockmann, P.; Caubel, A.; Noblet, N. de; Friedlingstein, P.; Idelkadi, A.; Kageyama, M. [Unite Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Codron, F.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Musat, I. [Unite Mixte CNRS-Ecole Polytechnique-ENS-UPCM, IPSL/LMD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Benshila, R.; Guilyardi, E.; Levy, C.; Madec, G.; Mignot, J.; Talandier, C. [unite mixte CNRS-IRD-UPMC, IPLS/LOCEAN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Cadule, P.; Denvil, S.; Foujols, M.A. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace des Sciences de l' Environnement (IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Krinner, G. [Unite mixte CNRS-UJF Grenoble, LGGE, BP96, Saint-Martin-d' Heres (France); Swingedouw, D. [CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse (France)

    2010-01-15

    This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Nino-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged. (orig.)

  9. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  10. Combined eye-atmosphere visibility model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Y. J.

    1981-01-01

    Existing models of the optical characteristics of the eye are combined with a recent model of optical characteristics of the atmosphere given by its modulation transfer function. This combination results in the combined eye-atmosphere performance given by the product of their modulation transfer functions. An application for the calculation of visibility thresholds in the case of a two-halves field is given.

  11. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  12. An Algorithm For Climate-Quality Atmospheric Profiling Continuity From EOS Aqua To Suomi-NPP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncet, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    We will present results from an algorithm that is being developed to produce climate-quality atmospheric profiling earth system data records (ESDRs) for application to hyperspectral sounding instrument data from Suomi-NPP, EOS Aqua, and other spacecraft. The current focus is on data from the S-NPP Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instruments as well as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on EOS Aqua. The algorithm development at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) has common heritage with the optimal estimation (OE) algorithm operationally processing S-NPP data in the Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS), but the ESDR algorithm has a flexible, modular software structure to support experimentation and collaboration and has several features adapted to the climate orientation of ESDRs. Data record continuity benefits from the fact that the same algorithm can be applied to different sensors, simply by providing suitable configuration and data files. The radiative transfer component uses an enhanced version of optimal spectral sampling (OSS) with updated spectroscopy, treatment of emission that is not in local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE), efficiency gains with "global" optimal sampling over all channels, and support for channel selection. The algorithm is designed for adaptive treatment of clouds, with capability to apply "cloud clearing" or simultaneous cloud parameter retrieval, depending on conditions. We will present retrieval results demonstrating the impact of a new capability to perform the retrievals on sigma or hybrid vertical grid (as opposed to a fixed pressure grid), which particularly affects profile accuracy over land with variable terrain height and with sharp vertical structure near the surface. In addition, we will show impacts of alternative treatments of regularization of the inversion. While OE algorithms typically implement regularization by using background estimates from

  13. [Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

    2012-11-01

    Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

  14. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

  15. The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Previdi, Michael [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Liepert, Beate G. [NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth's climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2}). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO{sub 2} forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} (0.60 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1}, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight

  16. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  17. D-region ion-neutral coupled chemistry (Sodankylä Ion Chemistry, SIC) within the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM 4) - WACCM-SIC and WACCM-rSIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Tamás; Plane, John M. C.; Feng, Wuhu; Nagy, Tibor; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Verronen, Pekka T.; Andersson, Monika E.; Newnham, David A.; Clilverd, Mark A.; Marsh, Daniel R.

    2016-09-01

    This study presents a new ion-neutral chemical model coupled into the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The ionospheric D-region (altitudes ˜ 50-90 km) chemistry is based on the Sodankylä Ion Chemistry (SIC) model, a one-dimensional model containing 307 ion-neutral and ion recombination, 16 photodissociation and 7 photoionization reactions of neutral species, positive and negative ions, and electrons. The SIC mechanism was reduced using the simulation error minimization connectivity method (SEM-CM) to produce a reaction scheme of 181 ion-molecule reactions of 181 ion-molecule reactions of 27 positive and 18 negative ions. This scheme describes the concentration profiles at altitudes between 20 km and 120 km of a set of major neutral species (HNO3, O3, H2O2, NO, NO2, HO2, OH, N2O5) and ions (O2+, O4+, NO+, NO+(H2O), O2+(H2O), H+(H2O), H+(H2O)2, H+(H2O)3, H+(H2O)4, O3-, NO2-, O-, O2, OH-, O2-(H2O), O2-(H2O)2, O4-, CO3-, CO3-(H2O), CO4-, HCO3-, NO2-, NO3-, NO3-(H2O), NO3-(H2O)2, NO3-(HNO3), NO3-(HNO3)2, Cl-, ClO-), which agree with the full SIC mechanism within a 5 % tolerance. Four 3-D model simulations were then performed, using the impact of the January 2005 solar proton event (SPE) on D-region HOx and NOx chemistry as a test case of four different model versions: the standard WACCM (no negative ions and a very limited set of positive ions); WACCM-SIC (standard WACCM with the full SIC chemistry of positive and negative ions); WACCM-D (standard WACCM with a heuristic reduction of the SIC chemistry, recently used to examine HNO3 formation following an SPE); and WACCM-rSIC (standard WACCM with a reduction of SIC chemistry using the SEM-CM method). The standard WACCM misses the HNO3 enhancement during the SPE, while the full and reduced model versions predict significant NOx, HOx and HNO3 enhancements in the mesosphere during solar proton events. The SEM-CM reduction also identifies the important ion-molecule reactions that affect the partitioning of

  18. Atmospheric dispersion models of radioactivity releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oza, R.B.

    2016-01-01

    In view of the rapid industrialization in recent time, atmospheric dispersion models have become indispensible 'tools' to ensure that the effects of releases are well within the acceptable limits set by the regulatory authority. In the case of radioactive releases from the nuclear facility, though negligible in quantity and many a times not even measurable, it is required to demonstrate the compliance of these releases to the regulatory limits set by the regulatory authority by carrying out radiological impact assessment. During routine operations of nuclear facility, the releases are so low that environmental impact is usually assessed with the help of atmospheric dispersion models as it is difficult to distinguish negligible contribution of nuclear facility to relatively high natural background radiation. The accidental releases from nuclear facility, though with negligible probability of occurrence, cannot be ruled out. In such cases, the atmospheric dispersion models are of great help to emergency planners for deciding the intervention actions to minimize the consequences in public domain and also to workout strategies for the management of situation. In case of accidental conditions, the atmospheric dispersion models are also utilized for the estimation of probable quantities of radionuclides which might have got released to the atmosphere. Thus, atmospheric dispersion models are an essential tool for nuclear facility during routine operation as well as in the case of accidental conditions

  19. Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    of the orbital variations on Earth's climate; however, the knowledge and tools needed to complete a unied theory for ice ages have not been developed yet. Here, we focus on the climatic variations that have occurred over the last few million years. Paleoclimatic records show that the glacial cycles are linked...... to those present in the astronomical forcing. We shall do this in terms of a general framework of conceptual dynamical models, which may or may not exhibit internal self-sustained oscillations. We introduce and discuss two distinct mechanisms for a periodic response at a dierent period to a periodic...

  20. Intervention model in organizational climate

    OpenAIRE

    Cárdenas Niño, Lucila; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Arciniegas Rodríguez, Yuly Cristina; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Barrera Cárdenas, Mónica; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess whether the intervention model in organizational climate PMCO, was effective in the Hospital of Yopal, Colombia. The following five phases, proposed by the model, were implemented: 1) problem analysis, 2) awareness, 3) strategies design and planning, at the individual, intergroup, and organizational levels, 4) implementation of the strategy, and 5) process evaluation. A design composed of two groups, experimental and control, was chosen, analyzing whether t...

  1. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

    2009-05-01

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

  2. Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

  3. Infrared radiation models for atmospheric methane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cess, R. D.; Kratz, D. P.; Caldwell, J.; Kim, S. J.

    1986-01-01

    Mutually consistent line-by-line, narrow-band and broad-band infrared radiation models are presented for methane, a potentially important anthropogenic trace gas within the atmosphere. Comparisons of the modeled band absorptances with existing laboratory data produce the best agreement when, within the band models, spurious band intensities are used which are consistent with the respective laboratory data sets, but which are not consistent with current knowledge concerning the intensity of the infrared fundamental band of methane. This emphasizes the need for improved laboratory band absorptance measurements. Since, when applied to atmospheric radiation calculations, the line-by-line model does not require the use of scaling approximations, the mutual consistency of the band models provides a means of appraising the accuracy of scaling procedures. It is shown that Curtis-Godson narrow-band and Chan-Tien broad-band scaling provide accurate means of accounting for atmospheric temperature and pressure variations.

  4. A model of the primordial lunar atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Prabal; Elkins-Tanton, Lindy; Petro, Noah; Mandell, Avi

    2017-09-01

    We create the first quantitative model for the early lunar atmosphere, coupled with a magma ocean crystallization model. Immediately after formation, the moon's surface was subject to a radiative environment that included contributions from the early Sun, a post-impact Earth that radiated like a mid-type M dwarf star, and a cooling global magma ocean. This radiative environment resulted in a largely Earth-side atmosphere on the Moon, ranging from ∼104 to ∼102 pascals, composed of heavy volatiles (Na and SiO). This atmosphere persisted through lid formation and was additionally characterized by supersonic winds that transported significant quantities of moderate volatiles and likely generated magma ocean waves. The existence of this atmosphere may have influenced the distribution of some moderate volatiles and created temperature asymmetries which influenced ocean flow and cooling. Such asymmetries may characterize young, tidally locked rocky bodies with global magma oceans and subject to intense irradiation.

  5. Climatic effects of nuclear war: The role of atmospheric stability and ground heat fluxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, J.F.B.; Slingo, A.

    1988-01-01

    Most studies of the climatic effects of nuclear war have used atmospheric models with simple representations of important physical processes. In this work, a model is used which treats the diurnal cycle of insolation, and includes surface and boundary layer parameterizations which take into account static stability and a four-layer soil model. Three idealized experiments are described in which a band of smoke is prescribed over northern mid-latitudes in In the experiment, the standard model is used, in the second the effect of deep soil layers is ignored and in the third the stability dependence in the surface and boundary layer processes is removed. It is found that the inclusion of deep soil layers decreases the surface cooling by about 20%, whereas the inclusion of stability effects increases the cooling by about the same amount, though conclusions will depend to some extent on the model used. copyright American Geophysical Union 1988

  6. A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

    OpenAIRE

    Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

    2004-01-01

    The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

  7. The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommenget, D.

    2013-12-01

    The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

  8. Assessing Uncertainty in Deep Learning Techniques that Identify Atmospheric Rivers in Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahesh, A.; Mudigonda, M.; Kim, S. K.; Kashinath, K.; Kahou, S.; Michalski, V.; Williams, D. N.; Liu, Y.; Prabhat, M.; Loring, B.; O'Brien, T. A.; Collins, W. D.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can be the difference between CA facing drought or hurricane-level storms. ARs are a form of extreme weather defined as long, narrow columns of moisture which transport water vapor outside the tropics. When they make landfall, they release the vapor as rain or snow. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), a machine learning technique that uses filters to recognize features, are the leading computer vision mechanism for classifying multichannel images. CNNs have been proven to be effective in identifying extreme weather events in climate simulation output (Liu et. al. 2016, ABDA'16, http://bit.ly/2hlrFNV). Here, we compare three different CNN architectures, tuned with different hyperparameters and training schemes. We compare two-layer, three-layer, four-layer, and sixteen-layer CNNs' ability to recognize ARs in Community Atmospheric Model version 5 output, and we explore the ability of data augmentation and pre-trained models to increase the accuracy of the classifier. Because pre-training the model with regular images (i.e. benches, stoves, and dogs) yielded the highest accuracy rate, this strategy, also known as transfer learning, may be vital in future scientific CNNs, which likely will not have access to a large labelled training dataset. By choosing the most effective CNN architecture, climate scientists can build an accurate historical database of ARs, which can be used to develop a predictive understanding of these phenomena.

  9. Global Climate Models Intercomparison of Anthropogenic Aerosols Effects on Regional Climate over North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, J.; Zhang, R.; Wang, Y.; Ming, Y.; Lin, Y.; Pan, B.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols can alter atmospheric radiation and cloud physics, which further exert impacts on weather and global climate. With the development and industrialization of the developing Asian countries, anthropogenic aerosols have received considerable attentions and remain to be the largest uncertainty in the climate projection. Here we assess the performance of two stat-of-art global climate models (National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model 3 (AM3)) in simulating the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on North Pacific storm track region. By contrasting two aerosol scenarios, i.e. present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI), both models show aerosol optical depth (AOD) enhanced by about 22%, with CAM5 AOD 40% lower in magnitude due to the long range transport of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol effects on the ice water path (IWP), stratiform precipitation, convergence and convection strengths in the two models are distinctive in patterns and magnitudes. AM3 shows qualitatively good agreement with long-term satellite observations, while CAM5 overestimates convection and liquid water path resulting in an underestimation of large-scale precipitation and IWP. Due to coarse resolution and parameterization in convection schemes, both models' performance on convection needs to be improved. Aerosols performance on large-scale circulation and radiative budget are also examined in this study.

  10. Chemical kinetics and modeling of planetary atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yung, Yuk L.

    1990-01-01

    A unified overview is presented for chemical kinetics and chemical modeling in planetary atmospheres. The recent major advances in the understanding of the chemistry of the terrestrial atmosphere make the study of planets more interesting and relevant. A deeper understanding suggests that the important chemical cycles have a universal character that connects the different planets and ultimately link together the origin and evolution of the solar system. The completeness (or incompleteness) of the data base for chemical kinetics in planetary atmospheres will always be judged by comparison with that for the terrestrial atmosphere. In the latter case, the chemistry of H, O, N, and Cl species is well understood. S chemistry is poorly understood. In the atmospheres of Jovian planets and Titan, the C-H chemistry of simple species (containing 2 or less C atoms) is fairly well understood. The chemistry of higher hydrocarbons and the C-N, P-N chemistry is much less understood. In the atmosphere of Venus, the dominant chemistry is that of chlorine and sulfur, and very little is known about C1-S coupled chemistry. A new frontier for chemical kinetics both in the Earth and planetary atmospheres is the study of heterogeneous reactions. The formation of the ozone hole on Earth, the ubiquitous photochemical haze on Venus and in the Jovian planets and Titan all testify to the importance of heterogeneous reactions. It remains a challenge to connect the gas phase chemistry to the production of aerosols.

  11. Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

    1998-01-01

    Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

  12. A Mercury Model of Atmospheric Transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, Alex B. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chodash, Perry A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Procassini, R. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2018-01-19

    Using the particle transport code Mercury, accurate models were built of the two sources used in Operation BREN, a series of radiation experiments performed by the United States during the 1960s. In the future, these models will be used to validate Mercury’s ability to simulate atmospheric transport.

  13. Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

    2009-04-01

    An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

  14. Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

  15. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Ocean Near Surface Atmospheric Properties, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Ocean Surface Bundle (OSB) Climate Data Record (CDR) consist of three parts: sea surface temperature; near-surface wind speed, air temperature, and specific...

  16. National programme for weather, climate and atmosphere research. Annual report 1984/85

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Louw, CW

    1984-12-01

    Full Text Available This report reviews the activities of the National Programme for Weather, Climate and Atmosphere Research (NPWCAR) for 1984/85, highlights the findings and also discusses future developments and general needs regarding research within the framework...

  17. Coupled atmosphere-wildland fire modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Henri Balbi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulating the interaction between fire and atmosphere is critical to the estimation of the rate of spread of the fire. Wildfire’s convection (i.e., entire plume can modify the local meteorology throughout the atmospheric boundary layer and consequently affect the fire propagation speed and behaviour. In this study, we use for the first time the Méso-NH meso-scale numerical model coupled to the point functional ForeFire simplified physical front-tracking wildfire model to investigate the differences introduced by the atmospheric feedback in propagation speed and behaviour. Both numerical models have been developed as research tools for operational models and are currently used to forecast localized extreme events. These models have been selected because they can be run coupled and support decisions in wildfire management in France and Europe. The main originalities of this combination reside in the fact that Méso-NH is run in a Large Eddy Simulation (LES configuration and that the rate of spread model used in ForeFire provides a physical formulation to take into account the effect of wind and slope. Simulations of typical experimental configurations show that the numerical atmospheric model is able to reproduce plausible convective effects of the heat produced by the fire. Numerical results are comparable to estimated values for fire-induced winds and present behaviour similar to other existing numerical approaches.

  18. Infrared radiation models for atmospheric ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratz, David P.; Ces, Robert D.

    1988-01-01

    A hierarchy of line-by-line, narrow-band, and broadband infrared radiation models are discussed for ozone, a radiatively important atmospheric trace gas. It is shown that the narrow-band (Malkmus) model is in near-precise agreement with the line-by-line model, thus providing a means of testing narrow-band Curtis-Godson scaling, and it is found that this scaling procedure leads to errors in atmospheric fluxes of up to 10 percent. Moreover, this is a direct consequence of the altitude dependence of the ozone mixing ratio. Somewhat greater flux errors arise with use of the broadband model, due to both a lesser accuracy of the broadband scaling procedure and to inherent errors within the broadband model, despite the fact that this model has been tuned to the line-by-line model.

  19. Improved dust representation in the Community Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albani, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Perry, A. T.; Scanza, R. A.; Zender, C. S.; Heavens, N. G.; Maggi, V.; Kok, J. F.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

    2014-09-01

    Aerosol-climate interactions constitute one of the major sources of uncertainty in assessing changes in aerosol forcing in the anthropocene as well as understanding glacial-interglacial cycles. Here we focus on improving the representation of mineral dust in the Community Atmosphere Model and assessing the impacts of the improvements in terms of direct effects on the radiative balance of the atmosphere. We simulated the dust cycle using different parameterization sets for dust emission, size distribution, and optical properties. Comparing the results of these simulations with observations of concentration, deposition, and aerosol optical depth allows us to refine the representation of the dust cycle and its climate impacts. We propose a tuning method for dust parameterizations to allow the dust module to work across the wide variety of parameter settings which can be used within the Community Atmosphere Model. Our results include a better representation of the dust cycle, most notably for the improved size distribution. The estimated net top of atmosphere direct dust radiative forcing is -0.23 ± 0.14 W/m2 for present day and -0.32 ± 0.20 W/m2 at the Last Glacial Maximum. From our study and sensitivity tests, we also derive some general relevant findings, supporting the concept that the magnitude of the modeled dust cycle is sensitive to the observational data sets and size distribution chosen to constrain the model as well as the meteorological forcing data, even within the same modeling framework, and that the direct radiative forcing of dust is strongly sensitive to the optical properties and size distribution used.

  20. Implications of climate variability for the detection of multiple equilibria and for rapid transitions in the atmosphere-vegetation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bathiany, S. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Claussen, M. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany); Fraedrich, K. [Universitaet Hamburg, Meteorologisches Institut, Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    Paleoclimatic records indicate a decline of vegetation cover in the Western Sahara at the end of the African Humid Period (about 5,500 years before present). Modelling studies have shown that this phenomenon may be interpreted as a critical transition that results from a bifurcation in the atmosphere-vegetation system. However, the stability properties of this system are closely linked to climate variability and depend on the climate model and the methods of analysis. By coupling the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, with the simple dynamic vegetation model VECODE, we assess previous methods for the detection of multiple equilibria, and demonstrate their limitations. In particular, a stability diagram can yield misleading results because of spatial interactions, and the system's steady state and its dependency on initial conditions are affected by atmospheric variability and nonlinearities. In addition, we analyse the implications of climate variability for the abruptness of a vegetation decline. We find that a vegetation collapse can happen at different locations at different times. These collapses are possible despite large and uncorrelated climate variability. Because of the nonlinear relation between vegetation dynamics and precipitation the green state is initially stabilised by the high variability. When precipitation falls below a critical threshold, the desert state is stabilised as variability is then also decreased. (orig.)

  1. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Dominguez

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric rivers (ARs account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric–hydrologic–hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a alternative future radiative forcings, (b different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  2. Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin

    2018-05-01

    A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.

  3. Portable University Model of the Atmosphere (PUMA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraedrich, K.; Kirk, E.; Lunkeit, F. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.

    1998-10-01

    The Portable University Model of the Atmosphere (PUMA) is based on the Reading multi-level spectral model SGCM (Simple Global Circulation Model) described by Hoskins and Simmons (1975) and James and Gray (1986). Originally developed as a numerical prediction model, it was changed to perform as a circulation model. For example, James and Gray (1986) studied the influence of surface friction on the circulation of a baroclinic atmosphere, James and James (1992), and James et al. (1994) investigated ultra-low-frequency variability, and Mole and James (1990) analyzed the baroclinic adjustment in the context of a zonally varying flow. Frisius et al. (1998) simulated an idealized storm track by embedding a dipole structure in a zonally symmetric forcing field and Lunkeit et al. (1998) investigated the sensitivity of GCM (General Circulation Model) scenarios by an adaption technique applicapable to SGCMs. (orig.)

  4. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sobel, Adam H

    2013-09-17

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  5. Atmospheric radiative transfer modeling: a summary of the AER codes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clough, S.A. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States); Shephard, M.W. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States)]. E-mail: mshephar@aer.com; Mlawer, E.J. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States); Delamere, J.S. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States); Iacono, M.J. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States); Cady-Pereira, K. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States); Boukabara, S. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States); Brown, P.D. [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126 (United States)

    2005-03-01

    The radiative transfer models developed at AER are being used extensively for a wide range of applications in the atmospheric sciences. This communication is intended to provide a coherent summary of the various radiative transfer models and associated databases publicly available from AER (http://www.rtweb.aer.com). Among the communities using the models are the remote sensing community (e.g. TES, IASI), the numerical weather prediction community (e.g. ECMWF, NCEP GFS, WRF, MM5), and the climate community (e.g. ECHAM5). Included in this communication is a description of the central features and recent updates for the following models: the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM); the line file creation program (LNFL); the longwave and shortwave rapid radiative transfer models, RRTM{sub L}W and RRTM{sub S}W; the Monochromatic Radiative Transfer Model (MonoRTM); the MT{sub C}KD Continuum; and the Kurucz Solar Source Function. LBLRTM and the associated line parameter database (e.g. HITRAN 2000 with 2001 updates) play a central role in the suite of models. The physics adopted for LBLRTM has been extensively analyzed in the context of closure experiments involving the evaluation of the model inputs (e.g. atmospheric state), spectral radiative measurements and the spectral model output. The rapid radiative transfer models are then developed and evaluated using the validated LBLRTM model.

  6. Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksson, S.

    2013-09-01

    Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy

  7. Atmospheric/oceanic influence on climate in the southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark S. Riedel

    2006-01-01

    Despite a wealth of research, scientists still disagree about the existence, magnitude, duration and potential causes of global warming and climate change. For example, only recently have we recognized that, given historical global climate patterns, much of the global warming trend we are experiencing appears to be natural. We analyzed long-term climatologic records...

  8. The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

    2013-10-28

    Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

  9. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selsted, Merete Bang

    on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase...... carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO2. The methodology of static chamber CO2 flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility is a challenge...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

  10. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea K.; Lackner, Bettina C.; Ringer, Mark A.

    2018-04-01

    High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO), which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  11. Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govindasamy, B.; Thompson, S.; Mirin, A.; Wickett, M.; Caldeira, K.; Delire, C.

    2005-01-01

    Coupled climate and carbon cycle modelling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in greater warming. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year 2100 global warming in the range of 0 to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO 2 content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA), the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our integrated model, for scenarios with year 2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO 2 emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases are 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO 2 content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K

  12. Overview of climate information needs for ecological effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peer, R.L.

    1990-01-01

    Atmospheric scientists engaged in climate change research require a basic understanding of how ecological effects models incorporate climate. The report provides an overview of existing ecological models that might be used to model climate change effects on vegetation. Some agricultural models and statistical methods are also discussed. The weather input data requirements, weather simulation methods, and other model characteristics relevant to climate change research are described for a selected number of models. The ecological models are classified as biome, ecosystem, or tree models; the ecosystem models are further subdivided into species dynamics or process models. In general, ecological modelers have had to rely on readily available meteorological data such as temperature and rainfall. Although models are becoming more sophisticated in their treatment of weather and require more kinds of data (such as wind, solar radiation, or potential evapotranspiration), modelers are still hampered by a lack of data for many applications. Future directions of ecological effects models and the climate variables that will be required by the models are discussed.

  13. Pacific Northwest Laboratory annual report for 1994 to the DOE Office of Energy Research. Part 2: Atmospheric and climate research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-01

    Atmospheric research at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) occurs in conjunction with the Atmospheric Chemistry Program (ACP) and with the Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT) Program. Solicitations for proposals and peer review were used to select research projects for funding in FY 1995. Nearly all ongoing projects were brought to a close in FY 1994. Therefore, the articles in this volume include a summary of the long-term accomplishments as well as the FY 1994 progress made on these projects. The following articles present summaries of the progress in FY 1994 under these research tasks: continental and oceanic fate of pollutants; research aircraft operations; ASCOT program management; coupling/decoupling of synoptic and valley circulations; interactions between surface exchange processes and atmospheric circulations; and direct simulations of atmospheric turbulence. Climate change research at PNL is aimed at reducing uncertainties in the fundamental processes that control climate systems that currently prevent accurate predictions of climate change and its effects. PNL is responsible for coordinating and integrating the field and laboratory measurement programs, modeling studies, and data analysis activities of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program. In FY 1994, PNL scientists conducted 3 research projects under the ARM program. In the first project, the sensitivity of GCM grid-ad meteorological properties to subgrid-scale variations in surface fluxes and subgrid-scale circulation patterns is being tested in a single column model. In the second project, a new and computationally efficient scheme has been developed for parameterizing stratus cloud microphysics in general circulation models. In the last project, a balloon-borne instrument package is being developed for making research-quality measurements of radiative flux divergence profiles in the lowest 1,500 meters of the Earth`s atmosphere.

  14. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  15. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.

    2014-10-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  16. Electrical model of cold atmospheric plasma gun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slutsker, Ya. Z.; Semenov, V. E.; Krasik, Ya. E.; Ryzhkov, M. A.; Felsteiner, J.; Binenbaum, Y.; Gil, Z.; Shtrichman, R.; Cohen, J. T.

    2017-10-01

    We present an analytical model of cold atmospheric plasma formed by a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD), which is based on the lumped and distributed elements of an equivalent electric circuit of this plasma. This model is applicable for a wide range of frequencies and amplitudes of the applied voltage pulses, no matter whether or not the generated plasma plume interacts with a target. The model allows quantitative estimation of the plasma plume length and the energy delivered to the plasma. Also, the results of this model can be used for the design of DBD guns which efficiently generate cold atmospheric plasma. A comparison of the results of the model with those obtained in experiments shows a fairly good agreement.

  17. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed

  18. Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2013-04-01

    The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

  19. Climate model diversity in the Northern Hemisphere Polar vortex response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, I.; Seager, R.; Hitchcock, P.; Cohen, N.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate models vary widely in their predictions of the future of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, with some showing a significant strengthening of the vortex, some showing a significant weakening and others displaying a response that is not outside of the range expected from internal variability alone. This inter-model spread in stratospheric predictions may account for some inter-model spread in tropospheric predictions with important implications for the storm tracks and regional climate change, particularly for the North Atlantic sector. Here, our current state of understanding of this model spread and its tropospheric impacts will be reviewed. Previous studies have proposed relationships between a models polar vortex response to climate change and its present day vortex climatology while others have demonstrated links between a models polar vortex response and changing wave activity coming up from the troposphere below under a warming climate. The extent to which these mechanisms can account for the spread in polar vortex changes exhibited by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 models will be assessed. In addition, preliminary results from a series of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model will be presented. In these experiments, nudging of the stratospheric zonal mean state has been imposed to mimic the inter-model spread in the polar vortex response to climate change so that the downward influence of the spread in zonal mean stratospheric responses on the tropospheric circulation can be assessed within one model.

  20. Modelling stable atmospheric boundary layers over snow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, H.A.M.

    2015-01-01

    Thesis entitled:

    Modelling Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layers over Snow

    H.A.M. Sterk

    Wageningen, 29th of April, 2015

    Summary

    The emphasis of this thesis is on the understanding and forecasting of the Stable Boundary Layer (SBL) over snow-covered surfaces. SBLs

  1. Atmospheric characteristics essential for health effects modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, N.S.

    1977-01-01

    Factors to be considered in evaluating the possible consequences of exposure of human populations to radioactive aerosols are reviewed. Mathematical models of the mechanisms of radioinduced carcinogenesis, tissue deposition and lung clearance of radioactive aerosols, and meteorological parameters affecting the diffusion of radioactive aerosols in the atmosphere are discussed

  2. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) Annual Report 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LR Roeder

    2007-12-01

    This annual report describes the purpose and structure of the program, and presents key accomplishments in 2007. Notable achievements include: • Successful review of the ACRF as a user facility by the DOE Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee. The subcommittee reinforced the importance of the scientific impacts of this facility, and its value for the international research community. • Leadership of the Cloud Land Surface Interaction Campaign. This multi-agency, interdisciplinary field campaign involved enhanced surface instrumentation at the ACRF Southern Great Plains site and, in concert with the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study sponsored by the DOE Atmospheric Science Program, coordination of nine aircraft through the ARM Aerial Vehicles Program. • Successful deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility in Germany, including hosting nearly a dozen guest instruments and drawing almost 5000 visitors to the site. • Key advancements in the representation of radiative transfer in weather forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. • Development of several new enhanced data sets, ranging from best estimate surface radiation measurements from multiple sensors at all ACRF sites to the extension of time-height cloud occurrence profiles to Niamey, Niger, Africa. • Publication of three research papers in a single issue (February 2007) of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

  3. The Greenhouse effect within an analytic model of the atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dehnen, Heinz [Konstanz Univ. (Germany). Fachbereich Physik

    2009-01-15

    Within a simplified atmospheric model the greenhouse effect is treated by analytical methods starting from physical first principles. The influence of solar radiation, absorption cross sections of the greenhouse molecules, and cloud formation on the earth's temperature is shown and discussed explicitly by mathematical formulae in contrast to the climate simulations. The application of our analytical results on the production of 20 .10{sup 9} t of CO{sub 2} per year yields an enlargement of the earth's surface temperature of 2.3 .10{sup -2} C per year in agreement with other estimations. (orig.)

  4. Evaluation of a Regional Atmospheric Model Using Measurements of Surface Heat Exchange Processes from a Site in Antarctica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lipzig, N.P.M. van; Meijgaard, E. van; Oerlemans, J.

    1999-01-01

    A regional atmospheric climate model with a horizontal grid spacing of 55 km has been used to simulate the Antarctic atmosphere during an austral summer period. ECMWF reanalyses were used to force the atmospheric prognostic variables from the lateral boundaries. Sea surface temperatures and the sea

  5. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  6. Pacific Northwest Laboratory annual report for 1992 to the DOE Office of Energy Research. Part 3, Atmospheric and climate research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schrempf, R.E. [ed.

    1993-04-01

    Within the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), the atmospheric sciences and carbon dioxide research programs are part of the Environmental Sciences Division (ESD). One of the central missions of the division is to provide the DOE with scientifically defensible information on the local, regional, and global distributions of energy-related pollutants and their effects on climate. This information is vital to the definition and implementation of a sound national energy strategy. This volume reports on the progress and status of all OHER atmospheric science and climate research projects at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). PNL has had a long history of technical leadership in the atmospheric sciences research programs within OHER. Within the ESD, the Atmospheric Chemistry Program (ACP) continues DOE`s long-term commitment to study the continental and oceanic fates of energy-related air pollutants. Research through direct measurement, numerical modeling, and laboratory studies in the ACP emphasizes the long-range transport, chemical transformation, and removal of emitted pollutants, oxidant species, nitrogen-reservoir species, and aerosols. The Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT) program continues to apply basic research on density-driven circulations and on turbulent mixing and dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer to the micro- to mesoscale meteorological processes that affect air-surface exchange and to emergency preparedness at DOE and other facilities. Research at PNL provides basic scientific underpinnings to DOE`s program of global climate research. Research projects within the core carbon dioxide and ocean research programs are now integrated with those in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM), the Computer Hardware, Advanced Mathematics and Model Physics (CHAMMP), and Quantitative Links programs to form DOE`s contribution to the US Global Change Research Program.

  7. Atmospheric inverse modeling via sparse reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hase, Nils; Miller, Scot M.; Maaß, Peter; Notholt, Justus; Palm, Mathias; Warneke, Thorsten

    2017-10-01

    Many applications in atmospheric science involve ill-posed inverse problems. A crucial component of many inverse problems is the proper formulation of a priori knowledge about the unknown parameters. In most cases, this knowledge is expressed as a Gaussian prior. This formulation often performs well at capturing smoothed, large-scale processes but is often ill equipped to capture localized structures like large point sources or localized hot spots. Over the last decade, scientists from a diverse array of applied mathematics and engineering fields have developed sparse reconstruction techniques to identify localized structures. In this study, we present a new regularization approach for ill-posed inverse problems in atmospheric science. It is based on Tikhonov regularization with sparsity constraint and allows bounds on the parameters. We enforce sparsity using a dictionary representation system. We analyze its performance in an atmospheric inverse modeling scenario by estimating anthropogenic US methane (CH4) emissions from simulated atmospheric measurements. Different measures indicate that our sparse reconstruction approach is better able to capture large point sources or localized hot spots than other methods commonly used in atmospheric inversions. It captures the overall signal equally well but adds details on the grid scale. This feature can be of value for any inverse problem with point or spatially discrete sources. We show an example for source estimation of synthetic methane emissions from the Barnett shale formation.

  8. Atmospheric River Importance to Extratropical Climate and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, D.; Waliser, D. E.; Guan, B.; Ye, H.; Ralph, F. M.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow, long, water vapor rich corridors of the atmosphere that are responsible for over 90% of the poleward moisture transport across mid-latitudes and into high latitudes. This suggests a crucial role for ARs in helping establish the extra-tropical atmospheric water budget and hydroclimate variability. However, the contribution of ARs to the extra-tropical atmospheric water budget has yet to be quantified, including impacts on water vapor transport and storage, and precipitation. This study characterizes the roles of AR related atmospheric transport on combined and individual atmospheric water budget variables over extratropical regions of both hemispheres based on MERRA2 reanalysis products during 1997-2014. Results show that poleward water vapor transport related to ARs is strongly related to changes in water vapor storage and especially precipitation in higher latitudes in both hemispheres, with the relationship dependent on averaging period. For example, for the annual cycle climatology, both AR transport and local evaporation support the variation in precipitation. However, on monthly time scales, the water budget at higher latitudes tends to be dominated by the balance between AR transport and precipitation. On pentad and daily time scales, AR transport is related to both precipitation and water vapor storage changes. These results indicate the important role of the episodic, extreme moisture transports associated with ARs in helping establish the high latitude water and energy cycles, and associated hydroclimate.

  9. Land-atmosphere interactions and climate change: Recent results and new perspectives (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hirschi, M.; Mittelbach, H.; Mueller, B.; Mystakidis, S.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M.

    2013-12-01

    Land-atmosphere interactions play a key role in the climate system. In particular, soil moisture-climate interactions have been shown to affect the occurrence of extreme events in both present and future (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010). This presentation will provide an overview on recent results highlighting the impact of soil moisture-temperature feedbacks on hot extremes (e.g. Hirschi et al. 2010, Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Seneviratne et al. 2013). Furthermore, it will also address new findings in the area of soil moisture-precipitation and land albedo-climate feedbacks (Guillod et al. 2013, Davin et al. 2013). The representation of these feedbacks in current climate models will be discussed, based on analyses of CMIP5 simulations. We will especially highlight systematic biases found in some key relationships underlying these feedbacks (e.g. Mueller and Seneviratne 2013). Finally, we will address the question of terrestrial climate engineering through targeted modifications of the land surface. References: Davin, E.L., S.I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, and T. Wang, 2013: Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management. Submitted. Guillod, B., et al., 2013: Land surface controls on afternoon precipitation diagnosed from observational data: Uncertainties, confounding factors and the possible role of interception storage. Manuscript in preparation. Hirschi, M., S.I. Seneviratne, V. Alexandrov, F. Boberg, C. Boroneant, O.B. Christensen, H. Formayer, B. Orlowsky, and P. Stepanek, 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geoscience, 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne 2013: Systematic land climate and evapotranspiration biases in CMIP5

  10. Mechanism of the relations between the changes of the geomagnetic field, solar corpuscular radiation, atmospheric circulation, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucha, Vaclav

    1980-01-01

    The correlations between geomagnetic, climatic, and meteorological phenomena were investigated with the object of demonstrating the function of the geomagnetic pole and changes of its position in controlling the climate and weather. A tentative model has been proposed to enable one to understand the causes of the generation of glacial and interglacial periods, as well as the causes which effect changes of climate (Bucha, 1976a). The analyses of various types of geomagnetic and atmospheric manifestations have disclosed certain associations. The coincidence in the occurrence of increased spectral densities with regard to geomagnetic activity and the variations of atmospheric pressure over the geomagnetic pole shows the relation between their periodicities. The results imply that the changes in the intensity of corpuscular radiation, indicated by geomagnetic activity, affect the temperature and pressure patterns over the geomagnetic pole and polar region significantly, so that a pronounced modification of the general circulation may take place, as shown schematically (Bucha, 1976b). As a result of investigating the relations between the variations of geomagnetic activity and meteorological factors a mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships and a model of the changes of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere are proposed; this provides a probable explanation of the causes of the fluctuation of the climate, of dry and cold periods and of differing vegetation conditions in various years in dependence on the intensity of geomagnetic activity (Bucha, 1976b, 1977a). (author)

  11. Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere-ocean climate system. 2. ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lau, William K.M. [NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States). Lab. for Atmospheres; Waliser, Duane E. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States). Earth Science and Technology Directorate, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    2012-07-01

    This updated multi-author, comprehensive and authoritative review of intra-seasonal variability (ISV), has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important, multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations. All the original chapters are updated, where appropriate. The book opens with an overview of ISV and observations from an historical perspective. Successive chapters then deal with the role of ISV in monsoon variability in the South Asian, East Asian and South American monsoon regions, in North America and in the oceans. The coupling between ocean and atmosphere is considered, together with the function of angular momentum and Earth rotation. Later chapters deal with modeling ISV in the atmosphere and oceans, and the connection between the Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO). Specifically updated in this second edition is the chapter on modeling with recent development in global high-resolution modeling of the fine structures of the MJO. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation with short-term climate change is also considered. The authors consider how knowledge of ISV may be harnessed into improving long range forecasts of severe weather, and a new chapter on substantial new development of ISV research is added. This includes five subject areas: a) new theories of the MJO; b) vertical structures of the MJO, including latent heating profile derived from satellite data; c) extratropical-tropical interaction associated with MJO; d) linkage of ISV to transport of biogeochemical species; and e) possible impact of ISV on West Africa and Middle East region. (orig.)

  12. Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shuang-Jing; CAO Long; LI Na

    2014-01-01

    Based on simulations using the University of Victoria’s Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantic’s ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

  13. A global hybrid coupled model based on atmosphere-SST feedbacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cimatoribus, Andrea A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Dijkstra, Henk A. [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-02-15

    A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater and wind-stress. A basic but consistent representation of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks is captured in the hybrid coupled model and it is more than 10 times faster than the fully coupled climate model. The hybrid coupled model reaches a steady state with a climate close to the one of the fully coupled climate model, and the two models also have a similar response (collapse) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a freshwater hosing applied in the northern North Atlantic. (orig.)

  14. Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramanathan, V.; Callis, L.; Cess, R.; Hansen, J.; Isaksen, I.; Lacis, A.; Kuhn, W.; Luther, F.; Mahlman, J.; Reck, R.; Schlesinger, M.

    1992-01-01

    The problem concerning the greenhouse effects of human activities has broadened in scope from the CO 2 -climate problem to the trace gas-climate problem. The climate effects of non-CO 2 trace gases are strongly governed by interactions between chemistry, radiation, and dynamics. The authors discuss in detail the nature of the trace gas radiative heating and describe the importance of radiative-chemical interactions within the troposphere and the stratosphere. They make an assessment of the trace gas effects on troposphere-stratosphere temperature trends for the period covering the preindustrial era to the present and for the next several decades. Non-CO 2 greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are now adding to the greenhouse effect by an amount comparable to the effect of CO 2 . The rate of decadal increase of the total greenhouse forcing is now 3-6 times greater than the mean rate for the period 1850-1960. Time-dependent calculations with a simplified one-dimensional diffusive ocean model suggest that a surface warming about 0.4-0.8 K should have occurred during 1850 to 1980. For the various trace gas scenarios considered in this study, the equilibrium surface warming for the period 1980 to 2030 ranges from 0.8 to 4.1 K. This wide range in the projected warming is due to the range in the assumed scenario as well as due to the threefold uncertainty in the sensitivity of climate models. For the 180-year period from 1850 to 2030, their analysis suggests a trace gas-induced cumulative equilibrium surface warming in the range of 1.5 to 6.1 K

  15. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  16. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    The last IPCC report affirms the predominant role of low cloud-radiative feedbacks in the inter-model spread of climate sensitivity. Understanding the mechanisms that control the behavior of low-level clouds is thus crucial. However, the complexity of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the large number of processes potentially involved make the analysis of this response difficult. To simplify the analysis and to identify the most critical controls of cloud feedbacks, we analyze the cloud response to climate change simulated by the IPSL-CM5A model in a hierarchy of configurations. A comparison between three model configurations (coupled, atmospheric and aqua-planet) using the same physical parametrizations shows that the cloud response to global warming is dominated by a decrease of low clouds in regimes of moderate subsidence. Using a Single Column Model, forced by weak subsidence large-scale forcing, allows us to reproduce the vertical cloud profile predicted in the 3D model, as well as its response to climate change (if a stochastic forcing is added on vertical velocity). We analyze the sensitivity of this low-cloud response to external forcing and also to uncertain parameters of physical parameterizations involved on the atmospheric model. Through a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we highlight several mechanisms: (1) Robust: Over weak subsidence regimes, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts that a warmer atmosphere leads to a increase of the vertical MSE gradient, resulting on a strengthening of the import of low-MSE from the free atmosphere into the cloudy boundary layer. The MSE budget links changes of vertical advection and cloud radiative effects. (2) Physics Model Dependent: The coupling between shallow convection, turbulence and cloud schemes allows the intensification of low-MSE transport so that cloud radiative cooling becomes 'less necessary' to balance the energy budget (Robust positive low cloud-radiative feedback for the model). The

  17. Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

    1994-01-01

    An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

  18. Modelling interactions of carbon dioxide, forests, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxmoore, R.J.; Baldocchi, D.D.

    1994-01-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising and forests and climate is changing exclamation point This combination of fact and premise may be evaluated at a range of temporal and spatial scales with the aid of computer simulators describing the interrelationships between forest vegetation, litter and soil characteristics, and appropriate meteorological variables. Some insights on the effects of climate on the transfers of carbon and the converse effect of carbon transfer on climate are discussed as a basis for assessing the significance of feedbacks between vegetation and climate under conditions of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Three main classes of forest models are reviewed. These are physiologically-based models, forest succession simulators based on the JABOWA model, and ecosystem-carbon budget models that use compartment transfer rates with empirically estimated coefficients. Some regression modeling approaches are also outlined. Energy budget models applied to forests and grasslands are also reviewed. This review presents examples of forest models; a comprehensive discussion of all available models is not undertaken

  19. The consumption of atmospheric methane by soil in a simulated future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Curry

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available A recently developed model for the consumption of atmospheric methane by soil (Curry, 2007 is used to investigate the global magnitude and distribution of methane uptake in a simulated future climate. In addition to solving the one-dimensional diffusion-reaction equation, the model includes a parameterization of biological CH4 oxidation that is sensitive to soil temperature and moisture content, along with specified reduction factors for land cultivation and wetland fractional coverage. Under the SRES emission scenario A1B, the model projects an 8% increase in the global annual mean CH4 soil sink by 2100, over and above the 15% increase expected from increased CH4 concentration alone. While the largest absolute increases occur in cool temperate and subtropical forest ecosystems, the largest relative increases in consumption (>40% are seen in the boreal forest, tundra and polar desert environments of the high northern latitudes. Methane uptake at mid- to high northern latitudes increases year-round in 2100, with a 68% increase over present-day values in June. This increase is primarily due to enhanced soil diffusivity resulting from lower soil moisture produced by increased evaporation and reduced snow cover. At lower latitudes, uptake is enhanced mainly by elevated soil temperatures and/or reduced soil moisture stress, with the dominant influence determined by the local climate.

  20. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

  1. Reconstructing the climate states of the Late Pleistocene with the MIROC climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; O'ishi, Ryouta; Takahashi, Kunio

    2014-05-01

    The Late Pleistocene was a period which lasted from the Eemian interglacial period to the start of the warm Holocene and was characterized mostly by widespread glacial ice. It was also a period which saw modern humans spread throughout the world and other species of the same genus, like the Neanderthals, become extinct. Various hypotheses have been put forward to explain the extinction of Neanderthals, about 30,000 years ago. Among these is one which involves changes in past climate and the inability of Neanderthals to adapt to such changes. The last traces of Neanderthals coincide with the end of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) which was marked by large fluctuations in temperature and so-called Heinrich events, as suggested by geochemical records from ice cores. It is thought that melting sea ice or icebergs originating from the Laurentide ice sheet led to a large discharge of freshwater into the North Atlantic Ocean during the Heinrich events and severely weakened the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, with important environmental ramifications across parts of Europe such as sharp decreases in temperature and reduction in forest cover. In order to assess the effects of past climate change on past hominin migration and on the extinction of certain species, it is first important to have a good understanding of the past climate itself. In this study, we have used three variants of MIROC (The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), a global climate model, for a time slice experiment within the Late Pleistocene: two mid-resolution models (an atmosphere model and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model) and a high-resolution atmosphere model. To obtain a fuller picture, we also look at a cool stadial state as obtained from a 'freshwater hosing' coupled-model experiment, designed to mimic the effects of freshwater discharge in the North Atlantic. We next use the sea surface temperature response from this experiment to drive the atmosphere models. We discuss

  2. Climate change scenarios of extreme temperatures and atmospheric humidity for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejeda-Martinez, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)]. E-mail: atejeda@uv.mx; Conde-Alvarez, C. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valencia-Treviso, L.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2008-10-15

    The following study explores climatic change scenarios of extreme temperature and atmospheric humidity for the 2020 and 2050 decades. They were created for Mexico through the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HadCM2 general circulation models. Base scenario conditions were associated with the normal climatological conditions for the period 1961-1990, with a database of 50 surface observatories. It was necessary to empirically estimate the missing data in approximately half of the pressure measurements. For the period 1961-1990, statistical models of the monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric humidity (relative and specific) were obtained from the observed data of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Based on the simulations of the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 models, a future scenario of monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity in climatic change conditions was created. The results shown are for the representative months of winter (January) and summer (July). [Spanish] En este articulo se presentan escenarios de cambio climatico referidos a temperaturas extremas y humedad atmosferica para las decadas de 2020 y 2050. Fueron generados para Mexico a partir de los modelos de circulacion general GFDLR30, ECHAM4 y HADCM2. El escenario base corresponde a las normales climatologicas del periodo 1961-1990 para 50 observatorios de superficie. Para la mitad de ellos fue necesario estimar empiricamente la presion atmosferica a partir de la altitud y para la totalidad se obtuvieron modelos estadisticos de los promedios mensuales de temperaturas maxima y minima asi como de humedad atmosferica (relativa y especifica). Esos modelos estadisticos, combinados con las salidas de los modelos de circulacion general mencionados, produjeron escenarios futuros de medias mensuales de temperaturas extremas y de humedad bajo condiciones de cambio climatico. Se mostraran los resultados para un mes representativo del invierno (enero) y otro del verano

  3. Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate, and land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Galbraith, David; Zhang, Ke; Coe, Michael T.; Costa, Marcos H.; Moorcroft, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Amazon tropical evergreen forest is an important component of the global carbon budget. Its forest floristic composition, structure, and function are sensitive to changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use. In this study biomass and productivity simulated by three dynamic global vegetation models (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model, and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) for the period 1970-2008 are compared with observations from forest plots (Rede Amazónica de Inventarios Forestales). The spatial variability in biomass and productivity simulated by the DGVMs is low in comparison to the field observations in part because of poor representation of the heterogeneity of vegetation traits within the models. We find that over the last four decades the CO2 fertilization effect dominates a long-term increase in simulated biomass in undisturbed Amazonian forests, while land use change in the south and southeastern Amazonia dominates a reduction in Amazon aboveground biomass, of similar magnitude to the CO2 biomass gain. Climate extremes exert a strong effect on the observed biomass on short time scales, but the models are incapable of reproducing the observed impacts of extreme drought on forest biomass. We find that future improvements in the accuracy of DGVM predictions will require improved representation of four key elements: (1) spatially variable plant traits, (2) soil and nutrients mediated processes, (3) extreme event mortality, and (4) sensitivity to climatic variability. Finally, continued long-term observations and ecosystem-scale experiments (e.g. Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments) are essential for a better understanding of the changing dynamics of tropical forests.

  4. Regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, K.S.; Thomson, I.; Egan, B.A.

    1977-01-01

    As part of the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE) Design Project, a regional transport model of atmospheric sulfates has been developed. This quasi-Lagrangian three-dimensional grid numerical model uses a detailed SO 2 emission inventory of major anthropogenic sources in the Eastern U.S. region, and observed meteorological data during an episode as inputs. The model accounts for advective transport and turbulent diffusion of the pollutants. The chemical transformation of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ and the deposition of the species at the earth's surface are assumed to be linear processes at specified constant rates. The numerical model can predict the daily average concentrations of SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ at all receptor locations in the grid region during the episode. Because of the spatial resolution of the grid, this model is particularly suited to investigate the effect of tall stacks in reducing the ambient concentration levels of sulfur pollutants. This paper presents the formulations and assumptions of the regional sulfate transport model. The model inputs and results are discussed. Isopleths of predicted SO 2 and SO 4 /sup =/ concentrations are compared with the observed ground level values. The bulk of the information in this paper is directed to air pollution meteorologists and environmental engineers interested in the atmospheric transport modeling studies of sulfur oxide pollutants

  5. Coupled Photochemical and Condensation Model for the Venus Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierson, Carver; Zhang, Xi; Mendonca, Joao; Liang, Mao-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Ground based and Venus Express observations have provided a wealth of information on the vertical and latitudinal distribution of many chemical species in the Venus atmosphere [1,2]. Previous 1D models have focused on the chemistry of either the lower [3] or middle atmosphere [4,5]. Photochemical models focusing on the sulfur gas chemistry have also been independent from models of the sulfuric acid haze and cloud formation [6,7]. In recent years sulfur-bearing particles have become important candidates for the observed SO2 inversion above 80 km [5]. To test this hypothesis it is import to create a self-consistent model that includes photochemistry, transport, and cloud condensation.In this work we extend the domain of the 1D chemistry model of Zhang et al. (2012) [5] to encompass the region between the surface to 110 km. This model includes a simple sulfuric acid condensation scheme with gravitational settling. It simultaneously solves for the chemistry and condensation allowing for self-consistent cloud formation. We compare the resulting chemical distributions to observations at all altitudes. We have also validated our model cloud mass against pioneer Venus observations [8]. This updated full atmosphere chemistry model is also being applied in our 2D solver (altitude and altitude). With this 2D model we can model how the latitudinal distribution of chemical species depends on the meridional circulation. This allows us to use the existing chemical observations to place constraints on Venus GCMs [9-11].References: [1] Arney et al., JGR:Planets, 2014 [2] Vandaele et al., Icarus 2017 (pt. 1 & 2) [3] Krasnopolsky, Icarus, 2007 [4] Krasnopolsky, Icarus, 2012 [5] Zhang et al., Icarus 2012 [6] Gao et al., Icarus, 2014 [7] Krasnopolsky, Icarus, 2015 [8] Knollenberg and Hunten, JGR:Space Physics, 1980 [9] Lee et al., JGR:Planets, 2007 [10] Lebonnois et al., Towards Understanding the Climate of Venus, 2013 [11] Mendoncca and Read, Planetary and Space Science, 2016

  6. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  7. Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling of the Mount Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

    2017-12-01

    The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

  8. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  9. Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Biofuel Crops and Atmospheric Aerosols: Associations with Air Quality and Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Priya Ramachandran

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and primary release and secondary formation of aerosols alter the earth's radiative balance and therefore have important climatic implications. Savings in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions accomplished by replacing fossil fuels with biofuels may increase the nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Among various atmospheric trace gases, N2O, irrespective of its low atmospheric concentration, is the fourth most important gas in causing the global greenhouse effect. Major processes, those affect the concentration of atmospheric N2O, are soil microbial activities leading to nitrification and denitrification. Therefore, anthropogenic activities such as industrial emissions, and agricultural practices including application of nitrogenous fertilizers, land use changes, biomass combustion all contribute to the atmospheric N2O concentration. The emission rates of N2O related to biofuel production depend on the nitrogen (N) fertilizer uptake efficiency of biofuel crops. However, crops with less N demand, such as switchgrass may have more favorable climate impacts when compared to crops with high N demands, such as corn. Despite its wide environmental tolerance, the regional adaptability of the potential biofuel crop switch grass varies considerably. Therefore, it is important to regionally quantify the GHG emissions and crop yield in response to N-fertilization. A major objective of this study is to quantify soil emissions of N2O from switchgrass and corn fields as a function of N-fertilization. The roles of soil moisture and soil temperature on N2O fluxes were analyzed. These N2O observations may be used to parameterize the biogeochemical models to better understand the impact of different N2O emission scenarios. This study allows for improvements in climate models that focus on understanding the environmental impacts of the climate change mitigation strategy of replacing fossil fuels with biofuels. As a second major objective, the top of the

  10. Global biomass burning: Atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    As a significant source of atmospheric gases, biomass burning must be addressed as a major environmental problem. Biomass burning includes burning forests and savanna grasslands for land clearing and conversion, burning agricultural stubble and waste after harvesting, and burning biomass fuels. The editor discusses the history of biomass burning and provides an overview of the individual chapters

  11. A role for atmospheric CO2 in preindustrial climate forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoof, T.B. van; Wagner-Cremer, F.; Kürschner, W.M.; Visscher, H.

    2008-01-01

    Complementary to measurements in Antarctic ice cores, stomatal frequency analysis of leaves of land plants preserved in peat and lake deposits can provide a proxy record of preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. CO2 trends based on leaf remains of Quercus robur (English oak) from the

  12. Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at

  13. Data driven modelling of vertical atmospheric radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoch, Jaromir; Hlubinka, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    In the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) there exists a unique set of meteorological measurements consisting of the values of vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. In this paper a stochastic data-driven model based on nonlinear regression and on nonhomogeneous Poisson process is suggested. In the first part of the paper, growth curves were used to establish an appropriate nonlinear regression model. For comparison we considered a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with its intensity based on growth curves. In the second part both approaches were applied to the real data and compared. Computational aspects are briefly discussed as well. The primary goal of this paper is to present an improved understanding of the distribution of environmental radiation as obtained from the measurements of the vertical radioactivity profiles by the radioactivity sonde system. - Highlights: → We model vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. → We suggest appropriate nonlinear regression model based on growth curves. → We compare nonlinear regression modelling with Poisson process based modeling. → We apply both models to the real data.

  14. Composition, Chemistry, and Climate of the Atmosphere. 2: Mean properties of the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hanwant B. (Editor); Salstein, David A.

    1994-01-01

    The atmosphere can be defined as the relatively thin gaseous envelope surrounding the entire planet Earth. It possesses a number of properties related to its physical state and chemical composition, and it undergoes a variety of internal processes and external interactions that can either maintain or alter these properties. Whereas descriptions of the atmosphere's chemical properties form much of the remaining chapters of this book, the present chapter will highlight the atmosphere's gases, and these define its temperature structure. In contrast, the larger-scale motions comprise the winds, the global organization of which is often referred to as the general circulation. The framework of the dynamical and thermodynamical laws, including the three principles of conversation of mass, momentum, and energy, are fundamental in describing both the internal processes of the atmosphere and its external interactions. The atmosphere is not a closed system, because it exchanges all three of these internally conservative quantities across the atmosphere's boundary below and receives input from regions outside it. Thus surface fluxes of moisture, momentum, and heat occur to and from the underlying ocean and land. The atmosphere exchanges very little mass and momentum with space, though it absorbs directly a portion of the solar radiational energy received from above.

  15. Mathematical models for atmospheric pollutants. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drake, R.L.; Barrager, S.M.

    1979-08-01

    The present and likely future roles of mathematical modeling in air quality decisions are described. The discussion emphasizes models and air pathway processes rather than the chemical and physical behavior of specific anthropogenic emissions. Summarized are the characteristics of various types of models used in the decision-making processes. Specific model subclasses are recommended for use in making air quality decisions that have site-specific, regional, national, or global impacts. The types of exposure and damage models that are currently used to predict the effects of air pollutants on humans, other animals, plants, ecosystems, property, and materials are described. The aesthetic effects of odor and visibility and the impact of pollutants on weather and climate are also addressed. Technical details of air pollution meteorology, chemical and physical properties of air pollutants, solution techniques, and air quality models are discussed in four appendices bound in separate volumes

  16. WASCAL - West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use Regional Climate Simulations and Land-Atmosphere Simulations for West Africa at DKRZ and elsewhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Ilse; Arnault, Joel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald

    2014-05-01

    accompanied by the WASCAL Graduate Research Program on the West African Climate System. The GRP-WACS provides ten scholarships per year for West African PhD students with a duration of three years. Present and future WASCAL PhD students will constitute one important user group of the Linux cluster that will be installed at the Competence Center in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Regional Land-Atmosphere Simulations A key research activity of the WASCAL Core Research Program is the analysis of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere to investigate how land surface changes affect hydro-meteorological surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration. Since current land surface models of global and regional climate models neglect dominant lateral hydrological processes such as surface runoff, a novel land surface model is used, the NCAR Distributed Hydrological Modeling System (NDHMS). This model can be coupled to WRF (WRF-Hydro) to perform two-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological simulations for the watershed of interest. Hardware and network prerequisites include a HPC cluster, network switches, internal storage media, Internet connectivity of sufficient bandwidth. Competences needed are HPC, storage, and visualization systems optimized for climate research, parallelization and optimization of climate models and workflows, efficient management of highest data volumes.

  17. Organic chemistry in the atmosphere. [laboratory modeling of Titan atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagan, C.

    1974-01-01

    The existence of an at least moderately complex organic chemistry on Titan is stipulated based on clear evidence of methane, and at least presumptive evidence of hydrogen in its atmosphere. The ratio of methane to hydrogen is the highest of any atmosphere in the solar system. Irradiation of hydrogen/methane mixtures produces aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons. A very reasonable hypothesis assumes that the red cloud cover of Titan is made of organic chemicals. Two-carbon hydrocarbons experimentally produced from irradiated mixtures of methane, ammonia, water, and hydrogen bear out the possible organic chemistry of the Titanian environment.

  18. The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-01-01

    Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

  19. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1994-01-01

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  20. Atmospheric and climatic consequences of a major nuclear war: Results of recent research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golitsyn, G.S.; MacCracken, M.C.

    1987-09-01

    During the last several years, comprehensive three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models, including detailed parametric formulations of a wide range of climatologically significant processes, have been applied to study the potential consequences of a major nuclear war involving the injection of smoke which could result from the large-scale fires ignited by such an exchange. For plausible smoke injections during the warm season of the year, all model calculations suggest that a significant climatic perturbation would result. In the lower range of smoke injection scenarios (producing of order 10 Tg of highly carbonaceous smoke), smoke would act primarily to inhibit convection and rainfall, especially over land areas, including possibly some disruption of the summer monsoon. The upper range of smoke scenarios (of order 100 Tg of highly carbonaceous smoke) would cause not only rapid and sharp decreases in land temperature and precipitation (a mid-latitude average land-temperature drop of the order of 20 0 C, up to perhaps twice this amount in continental interiors), but also seems likely to leave enough smoke in the atmosphere to persist into the following warm season, inducing a cooling of several degrees

  1. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  2. High-resolution climate modelling of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wessem, J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/413533085

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis we have used a high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2.3) to simulate the present-day climate (1979-2014) of Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. We have evaluated the model results with several observations, such as in situ surface energy balance (SEB)

  3. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  4. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  5. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Cloud Properties from AVHRR Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended (PATMOS-x), Version 5.3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of cloud products was produced by the University of Wisconsin using the AVHRR Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended (PATMOS-X)...

  6. Representation of Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greeves, C.Z.; Pope, V.D.; Stratton, R.A.; Martin, G.M. [Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are a key element of the winter weather and climate at mid-latitudes. Before projections of climate change are made for these regions, it is necessary to be sure that climate models are able to reproduce the main features of observed storm tracks. The simulated storm tracks are assessed for a variety of Hadley Centre models and are shown to be well modelled on the whole. The atmosphere-only model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core produces generally more realistic storm tracks than the model with the Eulerian dynamical core, provided the horizontal resolution is high enough. The two models respond in different ways to changes in horizontal resolution: the model with the semi-Lagrangian dynamical core has much reduced frequency and strength of cyclonic features at lower resolution due to reduced transient eddy kinetic energy. The model with Eulerian dynamical core displays much smaller changes in frequency and strength of features with changes in horizontal resolution, but the location of the storm tracks as well as secondary development are sensitive to resolution. Coupling the atmosphere-only model (with semi-Lagrangian dynamical core) to an ocean model seems to affect the storm tracks largely via errors in the tropical representation. For instance a cold SST bias in the Pacific and a lack of ENSO variability lead to large changes in the Pacific storm track. Extratropical SST biases appear to have a more localised effect on the storm tracks. (orig.)

  7. Modeling of Revitalization of Atmospheric Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coker, Robert; Knox, Jim

    2014-01-01

    The Atmosphere Revitalization Recovery and Environmental Monitoring (ARREM) project was initiated in September of 2011 as part of the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program. Under the ARREM project, testing of sub-scale and full-scale systems has been combined with multiphysics computer simulations for evaluation and optimization of subsystem approaches. In particular, this paper describes the testing and modeling of the water desiccant subsystem of the carbon dioxide removal assembly (CDRA). The goal is a full system predictive model of CDRA to guide system optimization and development.

  8. Development of a High-Resolution Climate Model for Future Climate Change Projection on the Earth Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanzawa, H.; Emori, S.; Nishimura, T.; Suzuki, T.; Inoue, T.; Hasumi, H.; Saito, F.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kimoto, M.; Sumi, A.

    2002-12-01

    The fastest supercomputer of the world, the Earth Simulator (total peak performance 40TFLOPS) has recently been available for climate researches in Yokohama, Japan. We are planning to conduct a series of future climate change projection experiments on the Earth Simulator with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The main scientific aims for the experiments are to investigate 1) the change in global ocean circulation with an eddy-permitting ocean model, 2) the regional details of the climate change including Asian monsoon rainfall pattern, tropical cyclones and so on, and 3) the change in natural climate variability with a high-resolution model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. To meet these aims, an atmospheric GCM, CCSR/NIES AGCM, with T106(~1.1o) horizontal resolution and 56 vertical layers is to be coupled with an oceanic GCM, COCO, with ~ 0.28ox 0.19o horizontal resolution and 48 vertical layers. This coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, named MIROC, also includes a land-surface model, a dynamic-thermodynamic seaice model, and a river routing model. The poles of the oceanic model grid system are rotated from the geographic poles so that they are placed in Greenland and Antarctic land masses to avoild the singularity of the grid system. Each of the atmospheric and the oceanic parts of the model is parallelized with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) technique. The coupling of the two is to be done with a Multi Program Multi Data (MPMD) fashion. A 100-model-year integration will be possible in one actual month with 720 vector processors (which is only 14% of the full resources of the Earth Simulator).

  9. mathematical modelling of atmospheric dispersion of pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohamed, M.E.

    2002-01-01

    the main objectives of this thesis are dealing with environmental problems adopting mathematical techniques. in this respect, atmospheric dispersion processes have been investigated by improving the analytical models to realize the realistic physical phenomena. to achieve these aims, the skeleton of this work contained both mathematical and environmental topics,performed in six chapters. in chapter one we presented a comprehensive review study of most important informations related to our work such as thermal stability , plume rise, inversion, advection , dispersion of pollutants, gaussian plume models dealing with both radioactive and industrial contaminants. chapter two deals with estimating the decay distance as well as the decay time of either industrial or radioactive airborne pollutant. further, highly turbulent atmosphere has been investigated as a special case in the three main thermal stability classes namely, neutral, stable, and unstable atmosphere. chapter three is concerned with obtaining maximum ground level concentration of air pollutant. the variable effective height of pollutants has been considered throughout the mathematical treatment. as a special case the constancy of effective height has been derived mathematically and the maximum ground level concentration as well as its location have been established

  10. The atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1985-01-01

    Four effects-obscuring smoke in the troposphere, obscuring dust in the stratosphere, the fallout of radioactive debris, and the partial destruction of the ozone layer - constitute the four known principal adverse environmental consequences that would occur after a nuclear war is ''over''. There may well be others about which we are still ignorant. The dust, and especially, the dark soot absorb ordinary visible light from the sun, heating the atmosphere and cooling the Earth's surface. All four of these effects have been treated in the authors; recent study, known form the initials of its authors as TTAPS. For the first time it is demonstrated that severe and prolonged low temperatures, the ''nuclear winter'', would follow a nuclear war. The new results have been subjected to detailed scrutiny, and many corroboratory calculations have not been made, including at least two in the Soviet Union. Unlike many previous studies, the effects do not seem to be restricted to northern midlatitudes, where the nuclear exchange would mainly take place. There is now substantial evidence that the heating by sunlight of atmospheric dust and soot over northern midlatitude targets would profoundly change the global circulation. In our studies, several dozen different scenarios where chosen, covering a wide range of possible wars, and the range of uncertainty in each key parameter was considered (e.g., to describe how many fine particles are injected into the atmosphere)

  11. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  12. Improved Regional Climate Model Simulation of Precipitation by a Dynamical Coupling to a Hydrology Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

    convective precipitation systems. As a result climate model simulations let alone future projections of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases. Here we show that the dynamical coupling of a regional climate model to a detailed fully distributed hydrological model - including groundwater-, overland...... of local precipitation dynamics are seen for time scales of app. Seasonal duration and longer. We show that these results can be attributed to a more complete treatment of land surface feedbacks. The local scale effect on the atmosphere suggests that coupled high-resolution climate-hydrology models...... including a detailed 3D redistribution of sub- and land surface water have a significant potential for improving climate projections even diminishing the need for bias correction in climate-hydrology studies....

  13. Stellar Atmospheric Modelling for the ACCESS Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Matthew; Kaiser, Mary Elizabeth; Bohlin, Ralph; Kurucz, Robert; ACCESS Team

    2018-01-01

    A goal of the ACCESS program (Absolute Color Calibration Experiment for Standard Stars) is to enable greater discrimination between theoretical astrophysical models and observations, where the comparison is limited by systematic errors associated with the relative flux calibration of the targets. To achieve these goals, ACCESS has been designed as a sub-orbital rocket borne payload and ground calibration program, to establish absolute flux calibration of stellar targets at flight candidates, as well as a selection of A and G stars from the CALSPEC database. Stellar atmosphere models were generated using Atlas 9 and Atlas 12 Kurucz stellar atmosphere software. The effective temperature, log(g), metallicity, and redenning were varied and the chi-squared statistic was minimized to obtain a best-fit model. A comparison of these models and the results from interpolation between grids of existing models will be presented. The impact of the flexibility of the Atlas 12 input parameters (e.g. solar metallicity fraction, abundances, microturbulent velocity) is being explored.

  14. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  15. Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Antonsson

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

  16. MIPAS: an instrument for atmospheric and climate research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Fischer

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available MIPAS, the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding, is a mid-infrared emission spectrometer which is part of the core payload of ENVISAT. It is a limb sounder, i.e. it scans across the horizon detecting atmospheric spectral radiances which are inverted to vertical temperature, trace species and cloud distributions. These data can be used for scientific investigations in various research fields including dynamics and chemistry in the altitude region between upper troposphere and lower thermosphere.

    The instrument is a well calibrated and characterized Fourier transform spectrometer which is able to detect many trace constituents simultaneously. The different concepts of retrieval methods are described including multi-target and two-dimensional retrievals. Operationally generated data sets consist of temperature, H2O, O3, CH4, N2O, HNO3, and NO2 profiles. Measurement errors are investigated in detail and random and systematic errors are specified. The results are validated by independent instrumentation which has been operated at ground stations or aboard balloon gondolas and aircraft. Intercomparisons of MIPAS measurements with other satellite data have been carried out, too. As a result, it has been proven that the MIPAS data are of good quality.

    MIPAS can be operated in different measurement modes in order to optimize the scientific output. Due to the wealth of information in the MIPAS spectra, many scientific results have already been published. They include intercomparisons of temperature distributions with ECMWF data, the derivation of the whole NOy family, the study of atmospheric processes during the Antarctic vortex split in September~2002, the determination of properties of Polar Stratospheric Clouds, the downward transport of NOx in the middle atmosphere, the stratosphere-troposphere exchange, the influence of

  17. Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCusker, Kelly E.

    Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated

  18. The organic nature and atmosphere-climate dependency of nitrogen loss from forest watershed ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Brookshire, E. N. J.

    2006-01-01

    In this dissertation I describe how coupled internal cycling and external forcing from the atmosphere and climate can regulate the dynamics of nitrogen (N) loss from forest watersheds. I address three major gaps in our understanding of the global N cycle: 1) the role of dissolved organic N (DON) in internal N cycling in low-N ecosystems; 2) The influence of atmospheric pollution on DON production and loss from forests; and 3) the inherent climate sensitivity of forest N cycling and loss. In...

  19. Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O3) and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics. Presently, ambient ground-level O3 concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO2 Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees. Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation. In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps. PMID:21379395

  20. Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

  1. Comparative Climates of the Trappist-1 Planetary System: Results from a Simple Climate-vegetation Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Carbone, Vincenzo; Lepreti, Fabio [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci, Cubo 31C, I-87036, Rende (CS) (Italy); Vecchio, Antonio, E-mail: tommaso.alberti@unical.it, E-mail: tommasoalberti89@gmail.com [LESIA—Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, 5 place Jules Janssen, F-92190, Meudon (France)

    2017-07-20

    The recent discovery of the planetary system hosted by the ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 could open new paths for investigations of the planetary climates of Earth-sized exoplanets, their atmospheres, and their possible habitability. In this paper, we use a simple climate-vegetation energy-balance model to study the climate of the seven TRAPPIST-1 planets and the climate dependence on various factors: the global albedo, the fraction of vegetation that could cover their surfaces, and the different greenhouse conditions. The model allows us to investigate whether liquid water could be maintained on the planetary surfaces (i.e., by defining a “surface water zone (SWZ)”) in different planetary conditions, with or without the presence of a greenhouse effect. It is shown that planet TRAPPIST-1d seems to be the most stable from an Earth-like perspective, since it resides in the SWZ for a wide range of reasonable values of the model parameters. Moreover, according to the model, outer planets (f, g, and h) cannot host liquid water on their surfaces, even with Earth-like conditions, entering a snowball state. Although very simple, the model allows us to extract the main features of the TRAPPIST-1 planetary climates.

  2. A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

    Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM

  3. Ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. Chapter 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugata, S.

    1997-01-01

    A quantitative evaluation of climate change such as global warming is impossible without a high-quality numerical model which describes the dynamics of the climate system and the circulation of energy and materials. The Center for Climate Research - National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR-NIES) atmospheric general circulation model (hereafter, GCM for a general circulation model) has been developed to obtain such a high-quality model. The emphasis of the development has been laid on the troposphere and the lower stratosphere below about 30 km altitude. This is natural because human beings live on the Earth's surface and the condition of the lower atmosphere directly affects human life. However, the stratosphere and the upper atmosphere beyond it have recently been the focus even in investigations of climate change, because they are relevant to many issues which relate closely to tropospheric climate change, such as the ozone hole, material exchange between the stratosphere and the troposphere, and physical interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere. This study extended the region of the CCSR-NIES GCM to the lower mesosphere (about 70 km from the surface). This is our first attempt to investigate this GCM's climatology in the upper atmosphere, although some studies for QBO in the middle and lower stratosphere had been done with the GCM

  4. Peformance Tuning and Evaluation of a Parallel Community Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, J.B.; Worley, P.H.; Hammond, S.

    1999-11-13

    The Parallel Community Climate Model (PCCM) is a message-passing parallelization of version 2.1 of the Community Climate Model (CCM) developed by researchers at Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the early to mid 1990s. In preparation for use in the Department of Energy's Parallel Climate Model (PCM), PCCM has recently been updated with new physics routines from version 3.2 of the CCM, improvements to the parallel implementation, and ports to the SGIKray Research T3E and Origin 2000. We describe our experience in porting and tuning PCCM on these new platforms, evaluating the performance of different parallel algorithm options and comparing performance between the T3E and Origin 2000.

  5. Challenges of Representing Sub-Grid Physics in an Adaptive Mesh Refinement Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, T. A.; Johansen, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Rosa, D.; Benedict, J. J.; Keen, N. D.; Collins, W.; Goodfriend, E.

    2015-12-01

    Some of the greatest potential impacts from future climate change are tied to extreme atmospheric phenomena that are inherently multiscale, including tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers. Extremes are challenging to simulate in conventional climate models due to existing models' coarse resolutions relative to the native length-scales of these phenomena. Studying the weather systems of interest requires an atmospheric model with sufficient local resolution, and sufficient performance for long-duration climate-change simulations. To this end, we have developed a new global climate code with adaptive spatial and temporal resolution. The dynamics are formulated using a block-structured conservative finite volume approach suitable for moist non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics. By using both space- and time-adaptive mesh refinement, the solver focuses computational resources only where greater accuracy is needed to resolve critical phenomena. We explore different methods for parameterizing sub-grid physics, such as microphysics, macrophysics, turbulence, and radiative transfer. In particular, we contrast the simplified physics representation of Reed and Jablonowski (2012) with the more complex physics representation used in the System for Atmospheric Modeling of Khairoutdinov and Randall (2003). We also explore the use of a novel macrophysics parameterization that is designed to be explicitly scale-aware.

  6. Climate. The earth and its atmosphere in the changing times. 3. upd. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchal, Christoph; Schoenwiese, Christian-Dietrich

    2016-01-01

    The Climate Change Challenge. Throughout the world, great efforts are being made to better understanding the development of the global climate and to model future trends. What characterizes the weather what the climate? How did the climate history of the Earth? What factors are affecting the climate? In the third, updated edition 2016 of the widespread attractive and scientifically-based four-volume nonfiction series ENERGY, AIR, POWER and MOBILITY which clearly explained basic knowledge of the climate system is expanded to include the latest information about the IPCC and keep up-to-date insight into modern research, especially the REKLIM project of the Helmholtz Association of German research Centres. [de

  7. Visualization in hydrological and atmospheric modeling and observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbig, C.; Rink, K.; Kolditz, O.

    2013-12-01

    In recent years, visualization of geoscientific and climate data has become increasingly important due to challenges such as climate change, flood prediction or the development of water management schemes for arid and semi-arid regions. Models for simulations based on such data often have a large number of heterogeneous input data sets, ranging from remote sensing data and geometric information (such as GPS data) to sensor data from specific observations sites. Data integration using such information is not straightforward and a large number of potential problems may occur due to artifacts, inconsistencies between data sets or errors based on incorrectly calibrated or stained measurement devices. Algorithms to automatically detect various of such problems are often numerically expensive or difficult to parameterize. In contrast, combined visualization of various data sets is often a surprisingly efficient means for an expert to detect artifacts or inconsistencies as well as to discuss properties of the data. Therefore, the development of general visualization strategies for atmospheric or hydrological data will often support researchers during assessment and preprocessing of the data for model setup. When investigating specific phenomena, visualization is vital for assessing the progress of the ongoing simulation during runtime as well as evaluating the plausibility of the results. We propose a number of such strategies based on established visualization methods that - are applicable to a large range of different types of data sets, - are computationally inexpensive to allow application for time-dependent data - can be easily parameterized based on the specific focus of the research. Examples include the highlighting of certain aspects of complex data sets using, for example, an application-dependent parameterization of glyphs, iso-surfaces or streamlines. In addition, we employ basic rendering techniques allowing affine transformations, changes in opacity as well

  8. Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C Valverde

    2010-03-01

    various emission scenarios. Five global models from IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC and GISS are used, for 1961-1990 (present climate from the 20C3M model run, and for 2011-2100 for the SRES A2 high emission scenario. For the future, (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods, in most of the models (except the MIROC, the thermal continental low (Chaco low is shifted to the southwest while the Bolivian High is northwest shifted during in the summer and spring. All the models show, for present climate simulation a weak subtropical southeast Pacific anticyclone (SPA, which would induce a reduction atmospheric subsidence. When the anticyclone is shifted southward, it would be linked with a stronger and more southward Pacific ITCZ. For the future climate, only two models (HadCM3 and GISS showaweakerSPAascomparedtothepresent. Ontheotherhand,thesubtropicalsouthwestAtlantic anticyclone (SAA seems to be more intense during fall and winter in almost all models (with the exception of the GISS model. Among the different models, the HadCM3 simulates the summer and spring circulation close to NCEP Reanalysis. This model does exhibit a relatively well simulated SACZ, contributing with a decrease of precipitation over Amazon. Moreover, for the future scenarios the HadCM3 model shows changes in rainfall patterns, with positive anomalies over the West Coast of Peru and Equator and negative anomalies over Northeast of Brazil, and Eastern of Amazon, linked to weaker and southward shifted South Pacific High, enforcing the ITCZ over 5ºS, as a consequence of a decrease of the moisture convergence over Amazon.

  9. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  10. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, X.J.; Zhao, Z.C.; Ding, Y.H.; Huang, R.H.; Giorgi, F. [National Climate Centre, Beijing (China)

    2001-07-01

    Impacts of greenhouse effects (2 x CO{sub 2}) upon climate change over China as simulated by a regional climate model over China (RegCM / China) have been investigated. The model was based on RegCM2 and was nested to a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM model). Results of the control run (1 x CO{sub 2}) indicated that simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in China by RegCM are much better than that by the global coupled model because of a higher resolution. Results of sensitive experiment by RegCM with 2 x CO{sub 2} showed that the surface air temperature over China might increase remarkably due to greenhouse effect, especially in winter season and in North China. Precipitation might also increase in most parts of China due to the CO{sub 2} doubling.

  11. Climate effects of anthropogenic sulfate: Simulations from a coupled chemistry/climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.; Taylor, K.E.; Walton, J.J.

    1993-09-01

    In this paper, we use a more comprehensive approach by coupling a climate model with a 3-D global chemistry model to investigate the forcing by anthropogenic aerosol sulfate. The chemistry model treats the global-scale transport, transformation, and removal of SO 2 , DMS and H 2 SO 4 species in the atmosphere. The mass concentration of anthropogenic sulfate from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is calculated in the chemistry model and provided to the climate model where it affects the shortwave radiation. We also investigate the effect, with cloud nucleation parameterized in terms of local aerosol number, sulfate mass concentration and updraft velocity. Our simulations indicate that anthropogenic sulfate may result in important increases in reflected solar radiation, which would mask locally the radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Uncertainties in these results will be discussed

  12. Atmospheric transmittance model for photosynthetically active radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulescu, Marius; Stefu, Nicoleta; Gravila, Paul; Paulescu, Eugenia; Boata, Remus; Pacurar, Angel; Mares, Oana; Pop, Nicolina; Calinoiu, Delia

    2013-01-01

    A parametric model of the atmospheric transmittance in the PAR band is presented. The model can be straightforwardly applied for calculating the beam, diffuse and global components of the PAR solar irradiance. The required inputs are: air pressure, ozone, water vapor and nitrogen dioxide column content, Ångström's turbidity coefficient and single scattering albedo. Comparison with other models and ground measured data shows a reasonable level of accuracy for this model, making it suitable for practical applications. From the computational point of view the calculus is condensed into simple algebra which is a noticeable advantage. For users interested in speed-intensive computation of the effective PAR solar irradiance, a PC program based on the parametric equations along with a user guide are available online at http://solar.physics.uvt.ro/srms

  13. Spectral model for clear sky atmospheric longwave radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mengying; Liao, Zhouyi; Coimbra, Carlos F. M.

    2018-04-01

    An efficient spectrally resolved radiative model is used to calculate surface downwelling longwave (DLW) radiation (0 ∼ 2500 cm-1) under clear sky (cloud free) conditions at the ground level. The wavenumber spectral resolution of the model is 0.01 cm-1 and the atmosphere is represented by 18 non-uniform plane-parallel layers with pressure in each layer determined on a pressure-based coordinate system. The model utilizes the most up-to-date (2016) HITRAN molecular spectral data for 7 atmospheric gases: H2O, CO2, O3, CH4, N2O, O2 and N2. The MT_CKD model is used to calculate water vapor and CO2 continuum absorption coefficients. Longwave absorption and scattering coefficients for aerosols are modeled using Mie theory. For the non-scattering atmosphere (aerosol free), the surface DLW agrees within 2.91% with mean values from the InterComparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM) program, with spectral deviations below 0.035 W cm m-2. For a scattering atmosphere with typical aerosol loading, the DLW calculated by the proposed model agrees within 3.08% relative error when compared to measured values at 7 climatologically diverse SURFRAD stations. This relative error is smaller than a calibrated parametric model regressed from data for those same 7 stations, and within the uncertainty (+/- 5 W m-2) of pyrgeometers commonly used for meteorological and climatological applications. The DLW increases by 1.86 ∼ 6.57 W m-2 when compared with aerosol-free conditions, and this increment decreases with increased water vapor content due to overlap with water vapor bands. As expected, the water vapor content at the layers closest to the surface contributes the most to the surface DLW, especially in the spectral region 0 ∼ 700 cm-1. Additional water vapor content (mostly from the lowest 1 km of the atmosphere) contributes to the spectral range of 400 ∼ 650 cm-1. Low altitude aerosols ( ∼ 3.46 km or less) contribute to the surface value of DLW mostly in the

  14. Modeling Atmospheric Activity of Cool Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrijver, C. J.

    2003-10-01

    This review discusses a set of simple models for cool-star activity with which we compute (1) photospheric field patterns on stars of different activity levels, (2) the associated outer-atmospheric field configurations, and (3) the soft X-ray emission that is expected to result from the ensemble of loop atmospheres in the coronae of these stars. The model is based on empirically-determined properties of solar activity. It allows us to extrapolate to stars of significantly higher and lower activity than seen on the present-day Sun through its cycle. With it, we can, for example, gain insight into stellar field patterns (including a possible formation mechanism for polar starspots), as well as in the properties of coronal heating (helpful in the identification of the quiescent coronal heating mechanism). Lacking comprehensive theoretical understanding, the model's reliance on empirical solar data means that the multitude of processes involved are approximated to be independent of rotation rate, activity level, and fundamental stellar parameters, or -- where unavoidably necessary -- assumed to simply scale with activity. An evaluation of the most important processes involved guides a discussion of the limits of the model, of the limitations in our knowledge, and of future needs. "I propose to adopt such rules as will ensure the testability of scientific statements; which is to say, their falsifiability." Karl Popper (1902-1994)

  15. Can Microbial Ecology and Mycorrhizal Functioning Inform Climate Change Models?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofmockel, Kirsten; Hobbie, Erik

    2017-07-31

    Our funded research focused on soil organic matter dynamics and plant-microbe interactions by examining the role of belowground processes and mechanisms across scales, including decomposition of organic molecules, microbial interactions, and plant-microbe interactions associated with a changing climate. Research foci included mycorrhizal mediated priming of soil carbon turnover, organic N use and depolymerization by free-living microbes and mycorrhizal fungi, and the use of isotopes as additional constraints for improved modeling of belowground processes. This work complemented the DOE’s mandate to understand both the consequences of atmospheric and climatic change for key ecosystems and the feedbacks on C cycling.

  16. The atmospheric and climatic consequences of nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1984-01-01

    The author discusses his recent research that has uncovered the fact that nuclear war may carry in its wake a climatic catastrophe, which he calls ''nuclear winter.'' He says the effects of nuclear war would not be restricted to the combatant nations. Agriculture in the Northern Hemisphere would be devasted by even a ''small'' nuclear war. The propagating ecological consequences all over the Earth are likely to be severe. The Southern Hemisphere will be cold and dark. Global arsenals, now about twenty times the nuclear winter threshold, are growing

  17. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  18. Modeling the Chemical Complexity in Titan's Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuitton, Veronique; Yelle, Roger; Klippenstein, Stephen J.; Horst, Sarah; Lavvas, Panayotis

    2018-06-01

    Titan's atmospheric chemistry is extremely complicated because of the multiplicity of chemical as well as physical processes involved. Chemical processes begin with the dissociation and ionization of the most abundant species, N2 and CH4, by a variety of energy sources, i.e. solar UV and X-ray photons, suprathermal electrons (reactions involving radicals as well as positive and negative ions, all possibly in some excited electronic and vibrational state. Heterogeneous chemistry at the surface of the aerosols could also play a significant role. The efficiency and outcome of these reactions depends strongly on the physical characteristics of the atmosphere, namely pressure and temperature, ranging from 1.5×103 to 10-10 mbar and from 70 to 200 K, respectively. Moreover, the distribution of the species is affected by molecular diffusion and winds as well as escape from the top of the atmosphere and condensation in the lower stratosphere.Photochemical and microphysical models are the keystones of our understanding of Titan's atmospheric chemistry. Their main objective is to compute the distribution and nature of minor chemical species (typically containing up to 6 carbon atoms) and haze particles, respectively. Density profiles are compared to the available observations, allowing to identify important processes and to highlight those that remain to be constrained in the laboratory, experimentally and/or theoretically. We argue that positive ion chemistry is at the origin of complex organic molecules, such as benzene, ammonia and hydrogen isocyanide while neutral-neutral radiative association reactions are a significant source of alkanes. We find that negatively charged macromolecules (m/z ~100) attract the abundant positive ions, which ultimately leads to the formation of the aerosols. We also discuss the possibility that an incoming flux of oxygen from Enceladus, another Saturn's satellite, is responsible for the presence of oxygen-bearing species in Titan's reductive

  19. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  20. Atmospheric greenhouse effect - simple model; Atmosfaerens drivhuseffekt - enkel modell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanestroem, Ingolf; Henriksen, Thormod

    2011-07-01

    The article shows a simple model for the atmospheric greenhouse effect based on consideration of both the sun and earth as 'black bodies', so that the physical laws that apply to them, may be used. Furthermore, explained why some gases are greenhouse gases, but other gases in the atmosphere has no greenhouse effect. But first, some important concepts and physical laws encountered in the article, are repeated. (AG)

  1. Numerical modeling of atmospheric washout processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayer, D.; Beheng, K.D.; Herbert, F.

    1987-01-01

    For the washout of particles from the atmosphere by clouds and rain one has to distinguish between processes which work in the first phase of cloud development, when condensation nuclei build up in saturated air (Nucleation Aerosol Scavenging, NAS) and those processes which work at the following cloud development. In the second case particles are taken off by cloud droplets or by falling rain drops via collision (Collision Aerosol Scavenging, CAS). The physics of both processes is described. For the CAS process a numerical model is presented. The report contains a documentation of the mathematical equations and the computer programs (FORTRAN). (KW) [de

  2. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  3. Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

    2010-12-01

    The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

  4. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  5. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a cloud-enabled web-service system that empowers physics-based, multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks. The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the observational datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation, (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs, and (3) ECMWF reanalysis outputs for several environmental variables in order to supplement observational datasets. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, (4) the calculation of difference between two variables, and (5) the conditional sampling of one physical variable with respect to another variable. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use, avoiding the hassle of local software installation and environment incompatibility. CMDA will be used as an educational tool for the summer school organized by JPL's Center for Climate Science in 2014. In order to support 30+ simultaneous users during the school, we have deployed CMDA to the Amazon cloud environment. The cloud-enabled CMDA will provide each student with a virtual machine while the user interaction with the system will remain the same

  6. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

  7. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF Instrumentation Status: New, Current, and Future)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JW Voyles

    2008-01-30

    The purpose of this report is to provide a concise but comprehensive overview of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility instrumentation status. The report is divided into the following four sections: (1) new instrumentation in the process of being acquired and deployed, (2) existing instrumentation and progress on improvements or upgrades, (3) proposed future instrumentation, and (4) Small Business Innovation Research instrument development.

  8. Impacts of land surface properties and atmospheric CO2 on the Last Glacial Maximum climate: a factor separation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Munhoven

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Many sensitivity studies have been carried out, using climate models of different degrees of complexity to test the climate response to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. Here, instead of adding the forcings successively as in most previous studies, we applied the separation method of U. Stein et P. Alpert 1993, in order to determine rigorously the different contributions of the boundary condition modifications, and isolate the pure contributions from the interactions among the forcings. We carried out a series of sensitivity experiments with the model of intermediate complexity Planet Simulator, investigating the contributions of the ice sheet expansion and elevation, the lowering of the atmospheric CO2 and of the vegetation cover change on the LGM climate. The separation of the ice cover and orographic contributions shows that the ice albedo effect is the main contributor to the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, whereas orography has only a local cooling impact over the ice sheets. The expansion of ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere causes a disruption of the tropical precipitation, and a southward shift of the ITCZ. The orographic forcing mainly contributes to the disruption of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a redistribution of the precipitation, but weakly impacts the tropics. The isolated vegetation contribution also induces strong cooling over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere that further affects the tropical precipitation and reinforce the southward shift of the ITCZ, when combined with the ice forcing. The combinations of the forcings generate many non-linear interactions that reinforce or weaken the pure contributions, depending on the climatic mechanism involved, but they are generally weaker than the pure contributions. Finally, the comparison between the LGM simulated climate and climatic reconstructions over Eurasia suggests that our results reproduce well the south-west to

  9. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang Selsted, M

    2010-07-15

    Global change is a reality. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising as well as mean global temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. These three environmental factors have separately and in combination effect on ecosystem processes. Terrestrial ecosystems hold large amounts of carbon, why understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will increase carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The methodology of static chamber CO{sub 2} flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO{sub 2} enrichment) facility is a challenge. Fluxes of CO{sub 2} from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO{sub 2} gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly on the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and the CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere gradient. (author)

  10. Examining Model Atmospheric Particles Inside and Out

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingen, L. M.; Zhao, Y.; Fairhurst, M. C.; Perraud, V. M.; Ezell, M. J.; Finlayson-Pitts, B. J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric particles scatter incoming solar radiation and act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), thereby directly and indirectly affecting the earth's radiative balance and reducing visibility. These atmospheric particles may not be uniform in composition. Differences in the composition of a particle's outer surface from its core can arise during particle growth, (photo)chemical aging, and exchange of species with the gas phase. The nature of the surface on a molecular level is expected to impact growth mechanisms as well as their ability to act as CCN. Model laboratory particle systems are explored using direct analysis in real time-mass spectrometry (DART-MS), which is sensitive to surface composition, and contrasted with average composition measurements using high resolution, time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometry (HR-ToF-AMS). Results include studies of the heterogeneous reactions of amines with solid dicarboxylic acid particles, which are shown to generate aminium dicarboxylate salts at the particle surface, leaving an unreacted core. Combination of both mass spectrometric techniques reveals a trend in reactivity of C3-C7 dicarboxylic acids with amines and allows calculation of the DART probe depth into the particles. The results of studies on additional model systems that are currently being explored will also be reported.

  11. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Steiner

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO, which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  12. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2018-04-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  13. Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

    2017-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

  14. A first appraisal of prognostic ocean DMS models and prospects for their use in climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Clainche, Yvonnick; Vezina, Alain; Levasseur, Maurice; Cropp, Roger A.; Gunson, Jim R.; Vallina, Sergio M.; Vogt, Meike; Lancelot, Christiane; Allen, J. Icarus; Archer, Stephen D.; Bopp, Laurent; Deal, Clara; Elliott, Scott; Jin, Meibing; Malin, Gill; Schoemann, Veronique; Simo, Rafel; Six, Katharina D.; Stefels, Jacqueline

    2010-01-01

    Ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) produced by marine biota is the largest natural source of atmospheric sulfur, playing a major role in the formation and evolution of aerosols, and consequently affecting climate. Several dynamic process-based DMS models have been developed over the last decade, and work

  15. Simulated pre-industrial climate in Bergen Climate Model (version 2: model description and large-scale circulation features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. H. Otterå

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The Bergen Climate Model (BCM is a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate. Here, a pre-industrial multi-century simulation with an updated version of BCM is described and compared to observational data. The model is run without any form of flux adjustments and is stable for several centuries. The simulated climate reproduces the general large-scale circulation in the atmosphere reasonably well, except for a positive bias in the high latitude sea level pressure distribution. Also, by introducing an updated turbulence scheme in the atmosphere model a persistent cold bias has been eliminated. For the ocean part, the model drifts in sea surface temperatures and salinities are considerably reduced compared to earlier versions of BCM. Improved conservation properties in the ocean model have contributed to this. Furthermore, by choosing a reference pressure at 2000 m and including thermobaric effects in the ocean model, a more realistic meridional overturning circulation is simulated in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated sea-ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere is in general agreement with observational data except for summer where the extent is somewhat underestimated. In the Southern Hemisphere, large negative biases are found in the simulated sea-ice extent. This is partly related to problems with the mixed layer parametrization, causing the mixed layer in the Southern Ocean to be too deep, which in turn makes it hard to maintain a realistic sea-ice cover here. However, despite some problematic issues, the pre-industrial control simulation presented here should still be appropriate for climate change studies requiring multi-century simulations.

  16. The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Comparisons to