Sample records for atmospheric circulation anomalies

  1. Recent summer Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies in a historical perspective (United States)

    Belleflamme, A.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.


    A significant increase in the summertime occurrence of a high pressure area over the Beaufort Sea, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and Greenland has been observed since the beginning of the 2000s, and particularly between 2007 and 2012. These circulation anomalies are likely partly responsible for the enhanced Greenland ice sheet melt as well as the Arctic sea ice loss observed since 2007. Therefore, it is interesting to analyse whether similar conditions might have happened since the late 19th century over the Arctic region. We have used an atmospheric circulation type classification based on daily mean sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height data from five reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, ERA-20C, and 20CRv2) to put the recent circulation anomalies in perspective with the atmospheric circulation variability since 1871. We found that circulation conditions similar to 2007-2012 have occurred in the past, despite a higher uncertainty of the reconstructed circulation before 1940. For example, only ERA-20C shows circulation anomalies that could explain the 1920-1930 summertime Greenland warming, in contrast to 20CRv2. While the recent anomalies exceed by a factor of 2 the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation of the Arctic region, their origin (natural variability or global warming) remains debatable.

  2. Atmospheric circulation patterns and phenological anomalies of grapevine in Italy (United States)

    Cola, Gabriele; Alilla, Roberta; Dal Monte, Giovanni; Epifani, Chiara; Mariani, Luigi; Parisi, Simone Gabriele


    Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a fundamental crop for Italian agriculture as testified by the first place of Italy in the world producers ranking. This justify the importance of quantitative analyses referred to this crucial crop and aimed to quantify meteorological resources and limitations to development and production. Phenological rhythms of grapevine are strongly affected by surface fields of air temperature which in their turn are affected by synoptic circulation. This evidence highlights the importance of an approach based on dynamic climatology in order to detect and explain phenological anomalies that can have relevant effects on quantity and quality of grapevine production. In this context, this research is aimed to study the existing relation among the 850 hPa circulation patterns over the Euro-Mediterranean area from NOAA Ncep dataset and grapevine phenological fields for Italy over the period 2006-2013, highlighting the main phenological anomalies and analyzing synoptic determinants. This work is based on phenological fields with a standard pixel of 2 km routinely produced from 2006 by the Iphen project (Italian Phenological network) on the base of phenological observations spatialized by means of a specific algorithm based on cumulated thermal resources expressed as Normal Heat Hours (NHH). Anomalies have been evaluated with reference to phenological normal fields defined for the Italian area on the base of phenological observations and Iphen model. Results show that relevant phenological anomalies observed over the reference period are primarily associated with long lasting blocking systems driving cold air masses (Arctic or Polar-Continental) or hot ones (Sub-Tropical) towards the Italian area. Specific cases are presented for some years like 2007 and 2011.

  3. Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies. (United States)

    Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang


    The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

  4. Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long‐range predictions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Ferranti, Laura; Molteni, Franco; Palmer, Tim N


    The impact on the atmospheric circulation of the unprecedented Arctic sea‐ice anomalies during the summers 2007 and 2008 is evaluated using the atmospheric model of the ECMWF operational seasonal forecasting system...

  5. Influence of Atlantic SST anomalies on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kestenare


    Full Text Available Recent studies of observational data suggest that Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean have a significant influence on the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European sector in early winter and in spring. After reviewing this work and showing that the spring signal is part of a global air-sea interaction, we analyze for comparison an ensemble of simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model in T42 resolution forced by the observed distribution of SST and sea ice, and a simulation with the ECHAM4/OPA8 coupled model in T30 resolution. In the two cases, a significant influence of the Atlantic on the atmosphere is detected in the Atlantic-European sector. In the forced mode, ECHAM4 responds to SST anomalies from early spring to late summer, and also in early winter. The forcing involves SST anomalies not only in the tropical Atlantic, but also in the whole tropical band, suggesting a strong ENSO influence. The modeled signal resembles that seen in the observations in spring, but not in early winter. In the coupled mode, the Atlantic SST only has a significant influence on the atmosphere in summer. Although the SST anomaly is confined to the Atlantic, the summer signal shows some similarity with that seen in the forced simulations. However, there is no counterpart in the observations.

  6. Principal modes of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with global angular momentum fluctuations (United States)

    Kang, In-Sik; Lau, K.-M.


    This paper provides a description of the variability of global atmospheric angular momentum (GAM) and its relationship with principal modes of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation anomalies. The data used are 5-day mean global wind fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts initialized dataset for 1980-1989. Significant seasonal variation of GAM is observed with maxima in April and November and a minimum during late July. The amplitude of the annual cycle is largest in the upper troposphere and decreases toward the surface. Although the lower tropospheric contribution to the total angular momentum is relatively small, its annual cycle is out of phase with those of the upper atmosphere and GAM. Also identified is a distinct semiannual component, with double peaks appearing in April and November. This signal is most noticeable in the upper troposphere above the 300-mb level. The principal modes of zonal-mean angular momentum and meridional circulation anomalies and their coupled modes are obtained by using empirical orthogonal function analysis and singular value decomposition. It is shown that the leading modes of the angular momentum and meridional circulation are coupled with each other and are responsible for much of the variability in GAM. The coupled modes represent fluctuations of upper-level subtropical zonal flow, which are linked to the modulation of Hadley circulation intensity in both hemispheres. It is found that GAM is highly correlated with the first eigenvector of upper-level streamfunction anomalies, which consists of a superrotational flow in the tropics and subtropics, except over the central Pacific where a 'blocked' flow with two subtropical anticyclonic circulation cells straddling the equator is found. Much of the blocked flow is due to the establishment of dipole anomalies in the velocity potential with centers over the central Pacific and the Maritime Continent on the interannual time scale. On the intraseasonal

  7. The influence of persistence of atmospheric circulation on temperature anomalies revisited (United States)

    Cahynova, Monika; Huth, Radan


    In this study we focus on the effect of persistence of circulation types on the occurrence of high and low temperatures in summer and winter, respectively, at several stations in Central Europe in the second half of the 20th century. The key question is to compare the subjective Hess-Brezowsky catalogue with its "objectivized" version, because serious concern has arisen on the credibility of the mid-1980s enhancement of persistence of the Hess-Brezowsky circulation types. For a direct comparison we have chosen an objective (automated) circulation catalogue that is based on the definition of Hess-Brezowsky types, and that also reproduces the minimum 3-day duration of circulation types. In this catalogue there is no significant upward trend in the persistence of types. We identify "hot" and "cold" circulation types and examine if there is a trend within these types, either in their frequency or temperature severity. We then determine whether the persistence of circulation types plays a role in these trends, e.g. whether the warming of "hot" types is caused rather by their longer duration or by the overall rise of their extremeness. The research is conducted within the COST733 Action "Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions". The Czech participation in it is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth, and Sports of the Czech Republic, contract OC115.

  8. Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields During Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.


    We perform a series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental U.S., with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-mb eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find similar results; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the US interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi Valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the US-Canada border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.

  9. Seasonal variability in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age (United States)

    Edwards, Thomas W. D.; Hammarlund, Dan; Newton, Brandi W.; Sjolte, Jesper; Linderson, Hans; Sturm, Christophe; St. Amour, Natalie A.; Bailey, Joscelyn N.-L.; Nilsson, Anders L.


    Here we report new reconstructions of winter temperature and summer moisture during the past millennium in southeastern Sweden, based on stable-isotope data from a composite tree-ring sequence, that further enhances our knowledge and understanding of seasonal climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere over the past millennium. Key features of these new climate proxy records include evidence for distinctive fluctuations in winter temperature in SE Sweden, superimposed upon the general pattern of cooling between the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) of the early millennium and the Little Ice Age (LIA) of the late millennium, as well as evidence for sustained summer wetness during the MCA, followed by drier and less variable conditions during the LIA. We also explore these new records within a circumpolar spatial context by employing self-organizing map analysis of meteorological reanalysis data to identify potential modern analogues of mid-tropospheric synoptic circulation types in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics that can reconcile varying seasonal climate states during the MCA and LIA in SE Sweden with less variable conditions in southwestern Canada, as portrayed by paleoclimate records developed in the same manner in an earlier study.

  10. Atmospheric Circulation of Exoplanets (United States)

    Showman, A. P.; Cho, J. Y.-K.; Menou, K.


    We survey the basic principles of atmospheric dynamics relevant to explaining existing and future observations of exoplanets, both gas giant and terrestrial. Given the paucity of data on exoplanet atmospheres, our approach is to emphasize fundamental principles and insights gained from solar system studies that are likely to be generalizable to exoplanets. We begin by presenting the hierarchy of basic equations used in atmospheric dynamics, including the Navier-Stokes, primitive, shallow-water, and two-dimensional nondivergent models. We then survey key concepts in atmospheric dynamics, including the importance of planetary rotation, the concept of balance, and simple scaling arguments to show how turbulent interactions generally produce large-scale east-west banding on rotating planets. We next turn to issues specific to giant planets, including their expected interior and atmospheric thermal structures, the implications for their wind patterns, and mechanisms to pump their east-west jets. Hot Jupiter atmospheric dynamics are given particular attention, as these close-in planets have been the subject of most of the concrete developments in the study of exoplanetary atmospheres. We then turn to the basic elements of circulation on terrestrial planets as inferred from solar system studies, including Hadley cells, jet streams, processes that govern the large-scale horizontal temperature contrasts, and climate, and we discuss how these insights may apply to terrestrial exoplanets. Although exoplanets surely possess a greater diversity of circulation regimes than seen on the planets in our solar system, our guiding philosophy is that the multidecade study of solar system planets reviewed here provides a foundation upon which our understanding of more exotic exoplanetary meteorology must build.

  11. Meridional circulation anomalies associated with the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (United States)

    Weller, E.; Cai, W.


    The Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM), which peaks in austral spring, impacts many rimming and remote regions to the Indian Ocean, with devastating floods over east Africa but severe droughts in countries surrounding Indonesia during a positive IOZM. Understanding the dynamics is important for seasonal prediction and climate projections, but the role of meridional circulation anomalies remains unclear. Here, we show that the zonal structure of rainfall anomalies results from two processes: despite a weak westward extension of the oceanic tropical convergence zone, anomalously high rainfall over east Africa is driven locally rather than a westward shift of the atmospheric convection from the east; further, northward contraction of the warm water pool over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean region (EEIO), generating changes in the meridional SST gradient, controls the northward retreat of the atmospheric convection, and hence declining rainfall over the EEIO, with important implications for the mean state change under greenhouse warming.

  12. Atmospheric Circulation of Exoplanets


    Showman, Adam P.; Cho, James Y-K.; Menou, Kristen


    We survey the basic principles of atmospheric dynamics relevant to explaining existing and future observations of exoplanets, both gas giant and terrestrial. Given the paucity of data on exoplanet atmospheres, our approach is to emphasize fundamental principles and insights gained from Solar-System studies that are likely to be generalizable to exoplanets. We begin by presenting the hierarchy of basic equations used in atmospheric dynamics, including the Navier-Stokes, primitive, shallow-wate...

  13. Temperature extremes in Western Europe and associated atmospheric anomalies (United States)

    Carvalho, V. A.; Santos, J. A.


    This worḱs focal point is the analysis of temperature extremes over Western Europe in the period 1957-2007 and their relationship to large-scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation patterns. The study is based on temperature daily time series recorded at a set of meteorological stations covering the target area. The large-scale anomalies are analyzed using data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis project. Firstly, a preliminary statistical analysis was undertaken in order to identify data gaps and erroneous values and to check the homogeneity of the time series, using not only elementary statistical approaches (e.g., chronograms, box-plots, scatter-plots), but also a set of non-parametric statistical tests particularly suitable for the analysis of monthly and seasonal mean temperature time series (e.g., Wald-Wolfowitz serial correlation test, Spearman and Mann-Kendall trend tests). Secondly, based on previous results, a selection of the highest quality time series was carried out. Aiming at identifying temperature extremes, we then proceed to the isolation of months with temperature values above or below pre-selected thresholds based on the empirical distribution of each time series. In particular, thresholds are based on percentiles specifically computed for each individual temperature record (data adaptive) and not on fixed values. As a result, a calendar of extremely high and extremely low monthly mean temperatures is obtained and the large-scale atmospheric conditions during each extreme are analyzed. Several atmospheric fields are considered in this study (e.g., 2-m maximum and minimum air temperature, sea level pressure, geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind components, vorticity, relative humidity) at different isobaric levels. Results show remarkably different synoptic conditions for temperature extremes in different parts of Western Europe, highlighting the different dynamical mechanisms underlying their

  14. Comparing the Degree of Land-Atmosphere Interaction in Four Atmospheric General Circulation Models (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Ijpelaar, Ruben; Tyahla, Lori; Cox, Peter; Suarez, Max J.; Houser, Paul R. (Technical Monitor)


    Land-atmosphere feedback, by which (for example) precipitation-induced moisture anomalies at the land surface affect the overlying atmosphere and thereby the subsequent generation of precipitation, has been examined and quantified with many atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Generally missing from such studies, however, is an indication of the extent to which the simulated feedback strength is model dependent. Four modeling groups have recently performed a highly controlled numerical experiment that allows an objective inter-model comparison of land-atmosphere feedback strength. The experiment essentially consists of an ensemble of simulations in which each member simulation artificially maintains the same time series of surface prognostic variables. Differences in atmospheric behavior between the ensemble members then indicates the degree to which the state of the land surface controls atmospheric processes in that model. A comparison of the four sets of experimental results shows that feedback strength does indeed vary significantly between the AGCMs.

  15. Potential ocean–atmosphere preconditioning of late autumn Barents-Kara sea ice concentration anomaly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin P. King


    Full Text Available Many recent studies have revealed the importance of the climatic state in November on the seasonal climate of the subsequent winter. In particular, it has been shown that interannual variability of sea ice concentration (SIC over the Barents-Kara (BK seas in November is linked to winter atmospheric circulation anomaly that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Understanding the lead–lag processes involving the different components of the climate system from autumn to winter is therefore important. This note presents dynamical interpretation for the ice-ocean–atmosphere relationships that can affect the BK SIC anomaly in late autumn. It is found that cyclonic (anticyclonic wind anomaly over the Arctic in October, by Ekman drift, can be responsible for positive (negative SIC in the BK seas in November. The results also suggest that ocean heat transport via the Barents Sea Opening in September and October can contribute to BK SIC anomaly in November.

  16. Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns (United States)

    Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.


    Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

  17. Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns (United States)

    Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.


    Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

  18. Role of atmospheric circulations in haze pollution in December 2016 (United States)

    Yin, Zhicong; Wang, Huijun


    In the east of China, recent haze pollution has been severe and damaging. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were conducive factors. The number of December haze days over North China and the Huanghuai area has increased sharply since 2010 and was greatest in 2016. During 2016, the most aggressive control measures for anthropogenic emissions were implemented from 16 to 21 December, but the most severe haze pollution still occurred, covering approximately 25 % of the land area of China and lasting for 6 days. The atmospheric circulations must play critical roles in the sub-seasonal haze events. Actually, the positive phase of the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern in the middle troposphere strengthened the anomalous anti-cyclone over the NH area that confined vertical motion below. The associated southerly anomalies made the cold air and surface wind speed weaker, but enhanced the humid flow. Thus, the horizontal and vertical dispersion of atmospheric particulates was suppressed and the pollutants gathered within a narrow space. In December 2016, these key indices were strongly beneficial for haze occurrence and combined to result in the severest haze pollution. The influences of the preceding autumn sea surface temperature near the Gulf of Alaska and the subtropical eastern Pacific, October-November snow cover in western Siberia, and associated physical processes on haze pollution are also discussed.

  19. Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere (United States)

    Lau, K.-M.; Sheu, P.-J.; Kang, I.-S.


    In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the

  20. PV Perspectives On The Titan Atmospheric Circulation (United States)

    Allison, M.

    Potential vorticity (or PV) has become an important tool for the conceptual model- ing of atmospheric/oceanic circulations and promises to be an important element of the diagnostic study of Titan. Recent applications of PV thinking to numerical simu- lations and observations of several extraterrestrial atmospheres have encouraged the prospects for a unified understanding of planetary circulations encompassing a wide range of rotation and stratification parameters. The accumulated evidence suggests that zonal-mean winds and temperatures at the jet levels approximate a state of zero potential vorticity within the bounding low-latitudes of anticyclonic flow, with the ex- terior cyclonic regions conforming to a PV state that is well mixed with respect to its polar limit [e.g. Allison et al., 1994; Allison, 2000]. The forthcoming reconnais- sance of Titan's atmosphere by the Cassini-Huygens mission will likely represent the greatest leap in the science of planetary meteorology for the coming decade, and pro- vide a unique test of the application of PV thinking to a global cyclostrophic regime, possibly in combination with a geostrophic sub-layer. The visualization of potential vorticity maps of the eight scale-height depth of atmosphere between Titan's surface and its visually opaque haze layer may be facilitated with an appropriately modeified but informationally equivalent formulation of the Ertel PV which removes the expo- nential variation with altitude of its inverse density factor [cf. Lait, 1994]. Specific examples of these kinds of maps and sections will be presented, as constrained by available observations, with a view to their eventual definition by anticipated in situ vertical profiles and orbital global maps from Cassini-Huygens.

  1. The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation


    M.-A. Knietzsch; A. Schröder; V. Lucarini; F. Lunkeit


    A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized Earth-like aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is on the atmospheric mean meridional circulation and global thermodynamic properties. The atmosphere counterbalances to a large extent the imposed changes in the oceanic heat transport, but, nonetheless, significant modifications to the atmospheric general ci...

  2. Nucla circulating atmospheric fluidized bed demonstration project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, Raymond E.


    Colorado-Ute Electric Association began a study to evaluate options for upgrading and extending the life of its Nucla power station in 1982. Located in southwestern Colorado near the town of Nucla, this station was commissioned in 1959 with a local bituminous coal as its design fuel for three identical stoker-fired units, each rated at 12.6 MW(e). Poor station efficiency, high fuel costs, and spiraling boiler maintenance costs forced the Nucla Station into low priority in the CUEA dispatch order as early as 1981. Among the options CUEA considered was to serve as a host utility to demonstrate Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion (AFBC) technology. The anticipated environmental benefits and apparent attractive economics of a circulating AFBC led to Colorado-Ute's decision to proceed with the design and construction of a demonstration project in 1984 at the Nucla facility.

  3. The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation


    M.-A. Knietzsch; V. Lucarini; F. Lunkeit


    A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized earthlike aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is put on the Lorenz energy cycle and the atmospheric mean meridional circulation. The latter is analysed by means of the Kuo–Eliassen equation. The atmospheric heat transport compensates the imposed oceanic heat transport changes to a large extent in co...

  4. Ozone, water vapor, and temperature anomalies associated with atmospheric blocking events over Eastern Europe in spring - summer 2010 (United States)

    Sitnov, S. A.; Mokhov, I. I.; Lupo, A. R.


    Using data from the AIRS satellite instrument (V6, L3), ozone, water vapor (WV), and temperature anomalies associated with the relatively short spring atmospheric blocking event and anomalously prolonged summer block over European Russia (ER) in 2010 are analyzed. Within the domain of the blocking anticyclones, negative total column ozone (TCO) anomalies and positive total column water vapor (TCWV) anomalies reaching the values of -25 and -32 Dobson Units (DU) and 10 and 11 kg m-2 during the spring and summer blocks are observed, respectively. Conversely, within the regions adjacent to the anticyclones to the west and east, positive TCO anomalies (77 and 45 DU) and negative TCWV anomalies (-3 and -4 kg m-2) are found. These TCO and TCWV anomalies are conditioned by the regional atmospheric circulation associated with the strong omega-type blocking. The TCO deficit and TCWV surplus within the atmospheric blocking domain are explained primarily by the poleward advection of subtropical air with low TCO and high TCWV content and tropopause uplift. The TCO and TCWV anomalies are also associated with quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains that accompanied these blocking events. An analysis of the anomaly vertical structure shows that the marked TCO decrease is primarily due to the lower stratospheric ozone decrease, while the strong TCWV increase is mainly the result of an increase of lower tropospheric WV content. The possible role of photochemical ozone destruction in the lower stratosphere due to WV advection within the blocked regions is also discussed. Vertical profiles of the thermal anomalies during both atmospheric blocking events reveal dipole-like structures characterized by positive temperature anomalies in the troposphere and negative anomalies in the lower stratosphere.

  5. Transient Atmospheric Circulation Response to An Instantaneous Doubling of Carbon Dioxide: Understanding Cause and Effect in Atmospheric Circulation Adjustment to Global Warming (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Seager, R.; Ting, M.; Naik, N.; Shaw, T. A.


    As a consequence of increased carbon dioxide emission, the atmospheric general circulation is expected to change. IPCC AR4 coupled models have consistently projected a poleward shift in tropospheric zonal jets and midlatitude storm tracks. We explore the associated dynamical mechanisms by looking into the transient step-by-step adjustment of the circulation. This allows an assessment of the causality sequence in the circulation and thermal structure response prior to establishment of a quasi-equilibrium state. The transient atmospheric adjustment is examined using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model Version 3 coupled to a slab ocean model and the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is uniformly and instantaneously doubled. The thermal structure and circulation response is well established after one year of integration with the magnitudes gradually increasing afterwards towards quasi-equilibrium. Tropical upper tropospheric warming occurs in the first month. The expansion of the warming in the middle and upper troposphere to the subtropics occurs later and is found to be primarily dynamically-driven due to the intensification of transient eddy momentum flux convergence and resulting anomalous descending motion in this region. This linkage between the eddy-driven vertical motion anomaly and the subtropical warming expansion in the middle and upper troposphere is also confirmed in the late 21st century in the IPCC AR4 simulations. The poleward displacement of the midlatitude tropospheric jet streams occurs together with the change in eddy momentum flux convergence but only after the intensification of the subpolar westerlies in the stratosphere. The results demonstrate the importance of the tropospheric eddies in setting up the extratropical tropospheric response to global warming. Our modeling results also show the sequence of the zonal wind anomaly in the vertical column of the atmosphere during the period of transient adjustment

  6. Removing Circulation Effects to Assess Central U.S. Land-Atmosphere Interactions in the CESM Large Ensemble (United States)

    Merrifield, Anna; Lehner, Flavio; Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara


    Interannual variability of summer surface air temperature (SAT) in the central United States (U.S.) is influenced by atmospheric circulation and land surface feedbacks. Here a method of dynamical adjustment is used to remove the effects of circulation on summer SAT variability over North America in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. The residual SAT variability is shown to reflect thermodynamic feedbacks associated with land surface conditions. In particular, the central U.S. is a "hot spot" of land-atmosphere interaction, with residual SAT accounting for more than half of the total SAT variability. Within the "hot spot," residual SAT anomalies show higher month-to-month persistence through the warm season and a redder spectrum than dynamically induced SAT anomalies. Residual SAT variability in this region is also shown to be related to preseason soil moisture conditions, surface flux variability, and local atmospheric pressure anomalies.

  7. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handorf


    Full Text Available The response of the Arctic atmosphere to low and high sea ice concentration phases based on European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim atmospheric data and Hadley Centre's sea ice dataset (HadISST1 from 1989 until 2010 has been studied. Time slices of winter atmospheric circulation with high (1990–2000 and low (2001–2010 sea ice concentration in the preceding August/September have been analysed with respect to tropospheric interactions between planetary and baroclinic waves. It is shown that a changed sea ice concentration over the Arctic Ocean impacts differently the development of synoptic and planetary atmospheric circulation systems. During the low ice phase, stronger heat release to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean reduces the atmospheric vertical static stability. This leads to an earlier onset of baroclinic instability that further modulates the non-linear interactions between baroclinic wave energy fluxes on time scales of 2.5–6 d and planetary scales of 10–90 d. Our analysis suggests that Arctic sea ice concentration changes exert a remote impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation during winter, exhibiting a barotropic structure with similar patterns of pressure anomalies at the surface and in the mid-troposphere. These are connected to pronounced planetary wave train changes notably over the North Pacific.

  8. The Arctic atmospheric circulation modes and their impact on lower latitudes (United States)

    Pasha Karami, Mehdi; Koenigk, Torben


    The role of the Arctic sea ice in the climate system and particularly in the future warmer climate deserves further investigations due to its complex coupling with the polar atmospheric circulation and the North Atlantic Ocean. While different regimes of the Arctic atmospheric circulation (e.g., Arctic oscillation, Arctic dipole anomaly) control the Arctic sea ice export into the North Atlantic Ocean, this in turn alters the sea ice extent and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and can also generate changes in the atmospheric circulation during the following seasons. Such modes of Arctic atmosphere played a role in those events of Great Salinity Anomaly and recent record lows of Arctic summer sea ice extent, and led to extreme weather in lower latitudes. Understanding the interannaul to interdecadal variability of the Arctic is therefore crucial to better predict the climate on the seasonal to interannual scale in the highly populated regions of midlatitudes. Here we study the first three dominant modes of the Arctic atmosphere by applying EOF analysis to the monthly mean sea level pressure data (north of 70 °N) from ERA-20C reanalysis and CMIP5 models for the period of 1900-2010. We investigate the atmospheric teleconnections, changes in the Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Ocean, and extreme events that are associated with these modes. Furthermore, those regions of the Arctic that are more responsive to each of these modes are identified to better understand the dynamics controlling the sea ice. Our results also have implications for the impact of sea ice on lower latitudes.

  9. Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.


    Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological

  10. Differential Radiative Heating Drives Tropical Atmospheric Circulation Weakening (United States)

    Xia, Yan; Huang, Yi


    The tropical atmospheric circulation is projected to weaken during global warming, although the mechanisms that cause the weakening remain to be elucidated. We hypothesize that the weakening is related to the inhomogeneous distribution of the radiative forcing and feedback, which heats the tropical atmosphere in the ascending and subsiding regions differentially and thus requires the circulation to weaken due to energetic constraints. We test this hypothesis in a series of numerical experiments using a fully coupled general circulation model (GCM), in which the radiative forcing distribution is controlled using a novel method. The results affirm the effect of inhomogeneous forcing on the tropical circulation weakening, and this effect is greatly amplified by radiative feedback, especially that of clouds. In addition, we find that differential heating explains the intermodel differences in tropical circulation response to CO2 forcing in the GCM ensemble of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project.

  11. NUCLA Circulating Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Demonstration Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The objective of this DOE Cooperative Agreement is to conduct a cost-shared clean coal technology project to demonstrate the feasibility of circulating fluidized bed combustion technology and to evaluate economic, environmental, and operational benefits of CFB steam generators on a utility scale. At the conclusion of the Phase 2 program, testing related to satisfying these objectives was completed. Data analysis and reporting are scheduled for completion by October 1991. (VC)

  12. Structure and dynamics of decadal anomalies in the wintertime midlatitude North Pacific ocean-atmosphere system (United States)

    Fang, Jiabei; Yang, Xiu-qun


    The structure and dynamics of decadal anomalies in the wintertime midlatitude North Pacific ocean-atmosphere system are examined in this study, using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis, HadISST SST and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data for 1960-2010. The midlatitude decadal anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are identified, being characterized by an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low (high) pressure over a cold (warm) oceanic surface. Such a unique configuration of decadal anomalies can be maintained by an unstable ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the midlatitudes, which is hypothesized as follows. Associated with a warm PDO phase, an initial midlatitude surface westerly anomaly accompanied with intensified Aleutian low tends to force a negative SST anomaly by increasing upward surface heat fluxes and driving southward Ekman current anomaly. The SST cooling tends to increase the meridional SST gradient, thus enhancing the subtropical oceanic front. As an adjustment of the atmospheric boundary layer to the enhanced oceanic front, the low-level atmospheric meridional temperature gradient and thus the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity tend to be strengthened, inducing more active transient eddy activities that increase transient eddy vorticity forcing. The vorticity forcing that dominates the total atmospheric forcing tends to produce an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low pressure north of the initial westerly anomaly, intensifying the initial anomalies of the midlatitude surface westerly and Aleutian low. Therefore, it is suggested that the midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction can provide a positive feedback mechanism for the development of initial anomaly, in which the oceanic front and the atmospheric transient eddy are the indispensable ingredients. Such a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanism is fundamentally responsible for the observed decadal anomalies in the midlatitude North Pacific ocean-atmosphere

  13. Nucla circulating atmospheric fluidized bed demonstration project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    During the fourth quarter of 1990, steady-state performance testing at the Nucla Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) resumed under sponsorship of the US Department of Energy. Co-sponsorship of the Demonstration Test Program by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was completed on June 15, 1990. From October through December, 1990, Colorado-Ute Electric Association (CUEA) completed a total of 23 steady-state performance tests, 4 dynamic tests, and set operating records during November and December as the result of improved unit operating reliability. Highlight events and achievements during this period of operation are presented.

  14. Weird Weather Tales of Astronomical and Atmospheric Anomalies

    CERN Document Server

    Seargent, David A J


    Have you ever heard the story of the tornado that lifted a man’s wallet right from his pants pocket? What about the myth of the Min-Min light in Australia?  Do you have a story about seeing the “Green Flash” or want an explanation of the mysterious Sun Dogs? Weird Weather: Tales of Astronomical and Atmospheric Anomalies is about the strange, unusual, and inexplicable events that take place in the air and sky. These include meteors that appear inside a darkened house, ghost lights that follow lone travelers, lightning emerging from patches of fog, and much more. Many of these climatic brainteasers occur within Earth’s skies, but there are parallel curiosities on other worlds, including: lightning on Venus, methane spouts on Titan, thunderstorms twice the size of Earth on Saturn, whirlwinds and dust storms on Mars , and auroras on Jupiter! Just as atmosphere and outer space are not separated by a sharp boundary, so the subject of this book is not confined to the skies. Earth is the way it is because of...

  15. Impact of continental meteorology and atmospheric circulation in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 121; Issue 2. Impact of continental meteorology and atmospheric circulation in the modulation of Aerosol Optical Depth over the Arabian Sea. Sandhya K Nair S Sijikumar S S Prijith. Volume 121 Issue 2 April 2012 pp 263-272 ...


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menou, Kristen [Department of Astronomy, Columbia University, 550 West 120th Street, New York, NY 10027 (United States)


    The exoplanet GJ1214b presents an interesting example of compositional degeneracy for low-mass planets. Its atmosphere may be composed of water, super-solar or solar metallicity material. We present atmospheric circulation models of GJ1214b for these three compositions, with explicit gray radiative transfer and an optional treatment of MHD bottom drag. All models develop strong, superrotating zonal winds ({approx}1-2 km s{sup -1}). The degree of eastward heat advection, which can be inferred from secondary eclipse and thermal phase curve measurements, varies greatly between the models. These differences are understood as resulting from variations in the radiative times at the thermal photosphere, caused by separate molecular weight and opacity effects. Our GJ1214b models illustrate how atmospheric circulation can be used as a probe of composition for similar tidally locked exoplanets in the mini-Neptune/waterworld class.

  17. Anomalies. (United States)

    Online-Offline, 1999


    This theme issue on anomalies includes Web sites, CD-ROMs and software, videos, books, and additional resources for elementary and junior high school students. Pertinent activities are suggested, and sidebars discuss UFOs, animal anomalies, and anomalies from nature; and resources covering unexplained phenonmenas like crop circles, Easter Island,…

  18. Clouds and the atmospheric circulation response to warming (United States)

    Ceppi, Paulo; Hartmann, Dennis


    We study the effect of clouds on the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 quadrupling in an aquaplanet model with a slab-ocean lower boundary. The cloud effect is isolated by locking the clouds to either the control or 4xCO2 state in the shortwave (SW) or longwave (LW) radiation schemes. In our model, cloud-radiative changes explain more than half of the total poleward expansion of the Hadley cells, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks under CO2 quadrupling, even though they cause only one-fourth of the total global-mean surface warming. The effect of clouds on circulation results mainly from the SW cloud-radiative changes, which strongly enhance the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient at all levels in the troposphere, favoring stronger and poleward-shifted midlatitude eddies. By contrast, quadrupling CO2 while holding the clouds fixed causes strong polar amplification and weakened midlatitude baroclinicity at lower levels, yielding only a small poleward expansion of the circulation. Our results show that (a) the atmospheric circulation responds sensitively to cloud-driven changes in meridional and vertical temperature distribution, and (b) the spatial structure of cloud feedbacks likely plays a dominant role in the circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing. While the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud feedback are expected to be highly model-dependent, an analysis of 4xCO2 simulations of CMIP5 models shows that the SW cloud feedback likely forces a poleward expansion of the tropospheric circulation in most climate models.

  19. The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank


    A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized Earth-like aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is on the atmospheric mean meridional circulation and global thermodynamic properties. The atmosphere counterbalances to a large extent the imposed changes in the oceanic heat transport, but, nonetheless, significant modifications to the atmospheric general circulation are found. Increasing the strength of the oceanic heat transport up to 2.5 PW leads to an increase in the global mean near-surface temperature and to a decrease in its equator-to-pole gradient. For stronger transports, the gradient is reduced further, but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. Additionally, a stronger oceanic heat transport leads to a decline in the intensity and a poleward shift of the maxima of both the Hadley and Ferrel cells. Changes in zonal mean diabatic heating and friction impact the properties of the Hadley cell, while the behavior of the Ferrel cell is mostly controlled by friction. The efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport. This suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperatures, thus reducing the available energy in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium.

  20. Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns (United States)

    Guanche, Y.; Mínguez, R.; Méndez, F. J.


    Autoregressive logistic regression models have been successfully applied in medical and pharmacology research fields, and in simple models to analyze weather types. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a general framework to study atmospheric circulation patterns capable of dealing simultaneously with: seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of different orders. To show its effectiveness on modeling performance, daily atmospheric circulation patterns identified from observed sea level pressure fields over the Northeastern Atlantic, have been analyzed using this framework. Model predictions are compared with probabilities from the historical database, showing very good fitting diagnostics. In addition, the fitted model is used to simulate the evolution over time of atmospheric circulation patterns using Monte Carlo method. Simulation results are statistically consistent with respect to the historical sequence in terms of (1) probability of occurrence of the different weather types, (2) transition probabilities and (3) persistence. The proposed model constitutes an easy-to-use and powerful tool for a better understanding of the climate system.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komacek, Thaddeus D.; Showman, Adam P., E-mail: [Department of Planetary Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)


    The full-phase infrared light curves of low-eccentricity hot Jupiters show a trend of increasing dayside-to-nightside brightness temperature difference with increasing equilibrium temperature. Here, we present a three-dimensional model that explains this relationship, in order to provide insight into the processes that control heat redistribution in tidally locked planetary atmospheres. This three-dimensional model combines predictive analytic theory for the atmospheric circulation and dayside–nightside temperature differences over a range of equilibrium temperatures, atmospheric compositions, and potential frictional drag strengths with numerical solutions of the circulation that verify this analytic theory. The theory shows that the longitudinal propagation of waves mediates dayside–nightside temperature differences in hot Jupiter atmospheres, analogous to the wave adjustment mechanism that regulates the thermal structure in Earth’s tropics. These waves can be damped in hot Jupiter atmospheres by either radiative cooling or potential frictional drag. This frictional drag would likely be caused by Lorentz forces in a partially ionized atmosphere threaded by a background magnetic field, and would increase in strength with increasing temperature. Additionally, the amplitude of radiative heating and cooling increases with increasing temperature, and hence both radiative heating/cooling and frictional drag damp waves more efficiently with increasing equilibrium temperature. Radiative heating and cooling play the largest role in controlling dayside–nightside temperature differences in both our analytic theory and numerical simulations, with frictional drag only being important if it is stronger than the Coriolis force. As a result, dayside–nightside temperature differences in hot Jupiter atmospheres increase with increasing stellar irradiation and decrease with increasing pressure.

  2. Atmospheric Circulation of Hot Jupiters: Dayside-Nightside Temperature Differences (United States)

    Komacek, Thaddeus D.; Showman, Adam P.


    The full-phase infrared light curves of low-eccentricity hot Jupiters show a trend of increasing dayside-to-nightside brightness temperature difference with increasing equilibrium temperature. Here, we present a three-dimensional model that explains this relationship, in order to provide insight into the processes that control heat redistribution in tidally locked planetary atmospheres. This three-dimensional model combines predictive analytic theory for the atmospheric circulation and dayside-nightside temperature differences over a range of equilibrium temperatures, atmospheric compositions, and potential frictional drag strengths with numerical solutions of the circulation that verify this analytic theory. The theory shows that the longitudinal propagation of waves mediates dayside-nightside temperature differences in hot Jupiter atmospheres, analogous to the wave adjustment mechanism that regulates the thermal structure in Earth’s tropics. These waves can be damped in hot Jupiter atmospheres by either radiative cooling or potential frictional drag. This frictional drag would likely be caused by Lorentz forces in a partially ionized atmosphere threaded by a background magnetic field, and would increase in strength with increasing temperature. Additionally, the amplitude of radiative heating and cooling increases with increasing temperature, and hence both radiative heating/cooling and frictional drag damp waves more efficiently with increasing equilibrium temperature. Radiative heating and cooling play the largest role in controlling dayside-nightside temperature differences in both our analytic theory and numerical simulations, with frictional drag only being important if it is stronger than the Coriolis force. As a result, dayside-nightside temperature differences in hot Jupiter atmospheres increase with increasing stellar irradiation and decrease with increasing pressure.

  3. Synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns controlling avalanche activity in central Svalbard (United States)

    Hancock, Holt; Prokop, Alexander; Eckerstorfer, Markus; Hendrikx, Jordy


    Central Svalbard's avalanche activity is primarily controlled by the local and synoptic scale meteorological conditions characterizing the region's winter storms. Previous work has described Svalbard's direct-action snow climate as High-Arctic maritime based on the unique meteorological conditions and resulting snowpack stratigraphy observed in the region. To gain a better understanding of the broad-scale spatial controls on regional avalanche activity in Svalbard, this work investigates synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with observed avalanche cycles during the 2007/2008 to 2015/2016 winter seasons. We use avalanche observations systematically recorded as part of the Cryoslope Svalbard project from 2007-2010 in combination with additional observations from notable avalanche events from 2010-2016 to develop a regional avalanche cycle history. We then compare the timing of these avalanche cycles to an existing daily calendar of synoptic types and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis datasets to characterize the synoptic atmospheric circulation patterns influencing this avalanche activity. Our results indicate regional avalanche cycles are driven by cyclonic activity in the seas surrounding Svalbard under synoptic circulation patterns associated with warm air advection and moisture transport from lower latitudes to Svalbard. The character and spatial distribution of observed avalanche activity can be differentiated by atmospheric circulation type: mid-winter slushflow and wet slab avalanche cycles, for example, are typically associated with meridional southerly flow over the North Atlantic bringing warm air and heavy precipitation to Svalbard. Such analyses can provide a foundation upon which to improve the understanding of central Svalbard's snow climate to facilitate regional avalanche forecasting efforts.

  4. Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics (VADY) - connections between planetary waves and atmospheric circulation types (United States)

    Lang, Benjamin; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas


    The climate research program "Medium-range Climate Predictions" (MiKlip), funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF), has the aim to develop a climate model system (MPI-ESM) that can provide reliable decadal predictions of climate, including extreme weather events. A substantial part of the development process is a comprehensive model validation. Within MiKlip, it includes comparisons of model simulations and observations in order to allow statements about the performance of the model and to give particular recommendations for the further development of the model. The research project "Validation of Atmospheric Dynamics" (VADY), conducted by the cooperation partners "Institute of Geography at the University of Augsburg" (IGUA) and the "German Aerospace Centre" (DLR), contributes to model validation within MiKlip with a special focus on atmospheric waves and circulation dynamics. Within the framework of VADY, DLR validates the representation of atmospheric waves on different levels and scales based on suitable activity indices (e.g. the so-called large-scale dynamical activity index (LDAI), which is a measure for the activity of planetary waves). The focus of IGUA is on the model validation with respect to the representation of atmospheric circulation types, dynamical modes and the teleconnectivity of the atmospheric circulation. Currently, the connection between LDAI and atmospheric circulation types on different levels and for different seasons in the North Atlantic-European region is analysed by considering, in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Results will be shown for the connection between LDAI and atmospheric circulation types and subsequently for the representation of the identified connections in the decadal-prediction model system of MPI-ESM.

  5. The stability of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiller, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Mikolajewicz, U. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)


    The stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation against meltwater input is investigated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The meltwater input to the Labrador Sea is increased linearly for 250 years to a maximum input of 0.625 Sv and then reduced again to 0 (both instantaneously and slowly decreasing over 250 years). The resulting freshening forces a shutdown of the formation of North Atlantic deepwater and a subsequent reversal of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic, filling the deep Atlantic with Antarctic bottom water. The change in the overturning pattern causes a drastic reduction of the Atlantic northward heat transport, resulting in a strong cooling with maximum amplitude over the northern North Atlantic and a southward shift of the sea-ice margin in the Atlantic. Due to the increased meridional temperature gradient, the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the westerlies in the northern hemisphere gain strength. We identify four main feedbacks affecting the stability of the thermohaline circulation: the change in the overturning circulation of the Atlantic leads to longer residence times of the surface waters in high northern latitudes, which allows them to accumulate more precipitation and runoff from the continents, which results in an increased stability in the North Atlantic.

  6. Evolving Impacts of Multiyear La Niña Events on Atmospheric Circulation and U.S. Drought (United States)

    Okumura, Yuko M.; DiNezio, Pedro; Deser, Clara


    Wintertime precipitation over the southern U.S. is known to decrease with interannual cooling of the equatorial Pacific associated with La Niña, which often persists 2 years or longer. Composite analysis based on a suite of observational and reanalysis data sets covering the period 1901-2012 reveals distinct evolution of atmospheric teleconnections and U.S. precipitation anomalies during multiyear La Niña events. In particular, atmospheric circulation anomalies strengthen and become more zonally elongated over the North Pacific in the second winter compared to the first winter. U.S. precipitation deficits also remain large, while the region of reduced precipitation shifts northeastward in the second winter. This occurs despite a significant weakening of the equatorial Pacific cooling in the second winter and suggests that the large-scale atmospheric circulation is more sensitive to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies of broader meridional extent. Given the extended climatic impacts, accurate prediction of La Niña duration is crucial.

  7. The Atmospheric Circulation of Hot Jupiters: a Hierarchical Modeling Approach (United States)

    Komacek, Thaddeus D.; Showman, Adam P.


    The atmospheres of extrasolar gas giants that receive strong stellar irradiation, or “hot Jupiters,” are beginning to be characterized as a population. Photometric full-phase light curves of hot Jupiters allow for basic inferences of their atmospheric circulation, providing two key observables. First, they measure the amplitude of brightness variation, which has shown that the fractional brightness temperature difference between the dayside and nightside in the atmospheres of these tidally locked planets can approach unity. Additionally, each planet has a significant observed offset of the brightest point in their light curve, and offsets in the infrared ubiquitously occur before secondary eclipse. These infrared offsets are best explained by strong (~km/s) eastward winds in hot Jupiter atmospheres. Motivated by these observations, we have developed a first-principles analytic theory that predicts dayside-nightside temperature differences and horizontal and vertical wind speeds as a function of incident stellar flux, rotation rate, frictional drag strength, and atmospheric pressure level. To complement and compare with this theory, we have performed a hierarchy of three-dimensional numerical simulations of the atmospheric circulation to explore changes with incident stellar flux, rotation rate, and drag strength. Both the theory and numerical simulations predict that the dayside-nightside temperature differences of hot Jupiters and their wind speeds should increase with increasing incident stellar flux and decrease with increasing drag strength. So far, this has been hinted at in the observed sample of nine hot Jupiter phase curves, but we predict that these broad trends will be robust with a larger observed population. We extend our theory to estimate vertical mixing rates, which is critical for understanding the impact of clouds and disequilibrium chemistry on observations of hot Jupiters. To show the regimes that this theory applies in, we compare

  8. Midlatitude atmospheric responses to Arctic sensible heat flux anomalies in Community Climate Model, Version 4: Atmospheric Response to Arctic SHFs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Catrin M. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Cassano, John J. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder Colorado USA; Cassano, Elizabeth N. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA


    Possible linkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude weather are strongly debated in the literature. We analyze a coupled model simulation to assess the possibility of Arctic ice variability forcing a midlatitude response, ensuring consistency between atmosphere, ocean, and ice components. We work with weekly running mean daily sensible heat fluxes with the self-organizing map technique to identify Arctic sensible heat flux anomaly patterns and the associated atmospheric response, without the need of metrics to define the Arctic forcing or measure the midlatitude response. We find that low-level warm anomalies during autumn can build planetary wave patterns that propagate downstream into the midlatitudes, creating robust surface cold anomalies in the eastern United States.

  9. A Diagnostic-Predictive Framework for Assessing Drought Risk in the Susquehanna River Basin in Response to Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies (United States)

    Carter, E.; Steinschneider, S.


    The 2016 drought in the Northeast US led to widespread water use restrictions and agricultural losses, as summertime streamflows approached 100 year lows. Recent research has suggested a possible oceanic forcing in the North Atlantic of past droughts in the region, such as those in the 1960s and 1990's, but others have suggested that at least a subset of these droughts are the result of natural atmospheric variability. This study presents a diagnostic-predictive framework to examine the prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions of the 2016 drought in the context of past droughts (1950-2015) and with a specific focus on the Susquehanna River Basin, the longest river on the U.S. east coast draining into the Atlantic. We first assess basin-wide hydroclimatic conditions (streamflow, precipitation, temperature, incident radiation, and relative humidity) during past droughts and determine whether the characteristics of these hydroclimatic variables cluster into distinct drought typologies. Prevailing features of atmospheric circulation (geopotential height and wind vector fields) and oceanic forcing (sea surface temperature anomalies) are identified during different drought types. We then present a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework that formally links ocean forcing to atmospheric circulation to regional drought impacts and accounts for potential differences in the ocean-atmosphere-regional climate causal chain under varying drought typologies. Potential applications for seasonal drought forecasting in the Susquehanna River Basin, as well as in the causal analysis of relevant climatic processes across dynamical models used for climate reconstruction and climate changes projections, are discussed.

  10. Atmospheric circulation remote response during two types of El Niño in changing climate (United States)

    Zheleznova, Irina


    The ENSO is the general mode of interannual climate variability. Studies of the last decade revealed that there are two different types of El Niño (Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific), and the effect of these two phenomena on atmospheric circulation differs significantly [Ashok et al., 2007; Weng et al., 2009; Zheleznova and Gushchina, 2015; Zheleznova and Gushchina, 2016]. This study investigates the changes in characteristics of the remote response on two types of El Niño in the context of climate warming in the 21st century, using CMIP5 climate models data. The ability of CMIP5 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate two flavors of El Niño was estimated in preliminary researches [Matveeva and Gushchina, 2015; Zheleznova et al., 2015]. It was shown that only 14 of the 20 CGCMs realistically reproduce SST anomalies distinctive for two types of El Nino. Further research carried out among these models have shown that only three CGCMs are capable to reproduce features of the response of the global, regional and vertical atmospheric circulation on the two flavours of El Niño. These CGCMs are MIROC 5, GFDL-ESM2M and CESM1-CAM5. Changing remote response features under climate change (based on the RCP group of experiments) was assessed on the basis of the data of these CGCMs. It was noted a general weakening of the remote response intensity, reducing its duration, as well as explore its change depending on the "rigidity" of the experiment. The study was supported by the Russian foundation for basic research (project № 16-35-00394 mol_a). References: 1. Ashok K., Behera S. K., Rao S. A., Weng H., Yamagata, T. El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res. 2007, 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798. 2. Matveeva T., Gushchina D. The role of intraseasonal atmosphere variability in enso generation in future climate // European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2016. — Vol. 18 of Geophysical Research Abstracts.

  11. Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation and Hydrologic Cycle over the North Pacific on Sub-seasonal Timescale (United States)

    Ren, X.


    The air-sea system over the North Pacific region has multi-scale processes. Among them, the sub-seasonal timescale process has attracted literature due to its close linkage with persistent cold event or heavy rainfall event over east Asia and North American. In this study, we focused on the atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle over the North Pacific on sub-seasonal timescale. The EOF results showed that, there are two dominant modes of latent heat fluxes (evaporation) anomaly over the North Pacific ocean region on sub-seasonal timescale. The first mode exhibits an above normal/below normal latent heat release along the East Asian coastal region between 10º-45ºN, and below normal/above one to the east side. The first modes propagates downstream like the wave-train. The second mode shows a see-saw pattern, with positive anomaly over the Kuroshio and its extending region and negative one over the Northeast Pacific. It is seen that the associated anomalies in integrated vapor transport (IVT) and precipitation exhibit opposite sign with the anomaly in evaporation: increased/decreased evaporation from the ocean to the air is linkage with decreased/increased IVT and precipitation locally. Additionally, for the second mode, the increased IVT extends to the northwest part of the North America. The precipitation along the North American northwest coast increase significantly. The influences of the first mode is mainly located over the northwest Pacific and fades to the east of the dateline. The driver of the first mode is the southeastward propagation of a wave train across Eurasian mid and high latitudes. The invasion of the wave train into the northwest Pacific contributes to the first mode of latent heat anomaly over the North Pacific ocean region. The driver of the second mode is the intensified/weakened Aleutian low. When the Aleutian low is intensified on sub-seasonal timescale, the increased wind speed and colder air temperature induce above

  12. Circulation anomalies associated with tropical-temperate troughs in southern Africa and the south west Indian Ocean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todd, M.; Washington, R. [Oxford Univ. (United Kingdom). School of Geography


    Daily rainfall variability over southern Africa (SA) and the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) during the austral summer months has recently been described objectively for the first time, using newly derived satellite products. The principle mode of variability in all months is a dipole structure with bands of rainfall orientated northwest to southeast across the region. These represent the location of cloud bands associated with tropical temperate troughs (TTT). This study objectively identifies major TTT events during November to February, and on the basis of composites off NCEP reanalysis data describes the associated atmospheric structure. The two phases of the rainfall dipole are associated with markedly contrasting circulation patterns. There are also pronounced intraseasonal variations. In early summer the position of the temperate trough and TTT cloud band alternates between the SWIO and southwest Atlantic. In late summer the major TTT axis lies preferentially over the SWIO, associated with an eastward displacement in the Indian Ocean high. In all months, positive events, in which the TTT cloud band lies primarily over the SWIO, are associated with large-scale moisture flux anomalies, in which convergent fluxes form a pronounced poleward flux along the cloud band. This suggests that TTT events are a major mechanism of poleward transfer of energy and momentum. (orig.)

  13. Trends in persistent seasonal-scale atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for precipitation and temperature extremes in California (United States)

    Swain, D. L.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.


    Long-lived anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns are often associated with surface weather extremes. This is particularly true from a hydroclimatic perspective in regions that have well-defined "wet seasons," where atmospheric anomalies that persist on a seasonal scale can lead to drought or (conversely) increase the risk of flood. Recent evidence suggests that both natural variability and global warming may be responsible for spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric conditions over the past several decades. In this investigation, we assess observed trends in cool-season (Oct-May) circulation patterns over the northeastern Pacific Ocean which have historically been associated with precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We find that the occurrence of certain extreme seasonal-scale atmospheric configurations has changed substantially over the 1948-2015 period, and also that there has been a trend towards amplification of the cool-season mean state in this region. Notably, patterns similar to the persistent anticyclone associated with the extremely warm and dry conditions experienced during the ongoing 2012-2015 California drought occur more frequently in the second half of the observed record. This finding highlights the importance of examining changes in extreme and/or persistent atmospheric circulation configurations, which may exhibit different responses to natural and anthropogenic forcings than the mean state.

  14. Nucla circulating atmospheric fluidized bed demonstration project. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    Colorado-Ute Electric Association began a study to evaluate options for upgrading and extending the life of its Nucla power station in 1982. Located in southwestern Colorado near the town of Nucla, this station was commissioned in 1959 with a local bituminous coal as its design fuel for three identical stoker-fired units, each rated at 12.6 MW(e). Poor station efficiency, high fuel costs, and spiraling boiler maintenance costs forced the Nucla Station into low priority in the CUEA dispatch order as early as 1981. Among the options CUEA considered was to serve as a host utility to demonstrate Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Combustion (AFBC) technology. The anticipated environmental benefits and apparent attractive economics of a circulating AFBC led to Colorado-Ute`s decision to proceed with the design and construction of a demonstration project in 1984 at the Nucla facility.

  15. Idealized Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (United States)

    Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.


    The paper discusses the design of idealized tropical cyclone experiments in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs). Our first goal is to suggest the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone as a standard test case for atmospheric model developments that adds complexity to a dynamical-core and GCM test suite. In addition, we plan on using idealized cyclones as a test bed for hurricane-dust interactions in the Atlantic Ocean Basin and climate-hurricane sensitivity studies. A group of sensitivity tests will be presented using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 3.1. The tests are run in a so-called aqua-planet configuration that consists of an ocean-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperatures and radiative forcing. We utilize the CAM 3.1 Finite Volume dynamical core on a latitude-longitude grid at a half-degree horizontal resolution. The development of an idealized, initially weak warm-core vortex is investigated with varying initial parameters including vorticity, radius of maximum wind, latitude, and sea surface temperature. The evolution of the initial vortex is especially sensitive to the initial vorticity, and therefore the initial wind speed, and radius of maximum wind. This sensitivity is also related to the model resolution. Although model resolution has improved greatly over the last decade, improved resolution will still be needed to model tropical cyclones in global climate models. These sensitivity tests provide us with suitable initial parameter configurations to model tropical cyclogenesis in CAM 3.1 and other GCMs.

  16. Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in winter on black carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pozzoli


    Full Text Available Winter warming and sea-ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades may be related to changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, which may impact the transport of black carbon (BC to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a statistical algorithm, based on the maximum likelihood estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large-scale weather patterns associated with increasing temperatures in winter and sea-ice retreat in the Arctic impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that two atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the western Arctic. The increasing BC trend is mainly due to a pattern characterized by a high-pressure anomaly near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. Another pattern with a high-pressure anomaly over the Arctic and low-pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean has a smaller impact on BC deposition but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

  17. Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in winter on black carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic (United States)

    Pozzoli, Luca; Dobricic, Srdan; Russo, Simone; Vignati, Elisabetta


    Winter warming and sea-ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades may be related to changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, which may impact the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a statistical algorithm, based on the maximum likelihood estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large-scale weather patterns associated with increasing temperatures in winter and sea-ice retreat in the Arctic impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that two atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the western Arctic. The increasing BC trend is mainly due to a pattern characterized by a high-pressure anomaly near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. Another pattern with a high-pressure anomaly over the Arctic and low-pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean has a smaller impact on BC deposition but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

  18. Atmospheric anomalies over Mt.Etna using GPS signal delays and tomography of radio wave velocities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Puglisi


    Full Text Available Due to the prominent topography of Mt. Etna, the use of satellite geodetic techniques may significantly suffer from atmospheric heterogeneities. This problem mainly affects the DInSAR technique. To overcome these drawbacks the present study attempts to make headway in measuring and interpreting atmospheric anomalies. We used the GAMIT software to obtain the ZTD (Zenith Total Delay values for the GPS sessions performed on 1996-97, during ERS-2 passes at Mt. Etna. GAMIT software also allows to characterize the statistical behaviour of the tropospheric effects, by using residuals for each station-satellite pair, and to locate the atmospheric anomalies, present mostly at low altitudes. The attempt at using these results to produce a tomography of radio waves velocity of the troposphere suggests that the number of GPS stations used to investigate atmosphere is a critical point in such a study. The three stations are too few to invert anomalies eventually existing in the lower atmosphere. This result is a good starting point for better direct future study to verify the applicability of this tomographic technique to a geodetic network with a higher number of stations, with the aim of characterizing the lower atmosphere of Mt. Etna for a more accurate monitoring of ground deformations.

  19. Near Real Time website for IASI observations of atmospheric anomalies (United States)

    Hayer, Catherine; Grainger, Don; Marsh, Kevin; Carboni, Elisa; Ventress, Lucy; Smith, Andrew


    Rapid analysis of satellite observations of the state of the atmosphere and the contaminant levels within it can be used for pollution monitoring, forest fire detection and volcanic activity monitoring. There are numerous operational satellite instruments for which this is possible. The IASI instruments, currently flying on board the MetOp-A and MetOp-B satellite platforms, are used to produce Near Real Time (NRT) data using analysis algorithms developed by Oxford University. The data is then displayed on a website within 3 hours of measurement. This allows for the semi-continuous monitoring of the state of the atmosphere over most of the globe, both in daylight and at night. Global coverage is achieved 4 times per day, which is a significant advantage over most of the alternatives, either geostationary, giving limited spatial coverage, or UV instruments which are only able to observe during the daylight side of the orbit. The website includes flags for atmospheric contaminants detectable by IASI, including dust, biomass burning-derived species and volcanic ash and SO2. In the near future, the website will be developed to also include a quantitative estimate of the mass loading of SO2 contained within any volcanic cloud. Emissions of volcanic products, such as ash and SO2, are useful indicators of a change in the activity level of a volcano. Since many volcanoes are only monitored by remote sensing methods, such as satellite instruments, this can be the only such indicator available. These emissions are also dangerous to passing aircraft, causing damage to external surfaces of the plane and to the engines, sometimes leading to failure. Evacuation of regions surrounding volcanoes, and cessation or diversion of air traffic around actively erupting volcanoes is costly and highly disruptive but is sometimes required. Up to date information is of critical importance as to when to make these sensitive decisions. An archive of data will be available to allow for easy

  20. The influence of winter and summer atmospheric circulation on the variability of temperature and sea ice around Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masayo Ogi


    Full Text Available Most peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean have seen a pronounced rise in sea surface temperatures in the past century, and this signature of Arctic amplification in proximity to the land suggests that the observed marine and terrestrial changes might be connected to each other. Using in situ observations of temperature from nine coastal meteorological stations around Greenland (GrSTs and remotely sensed fields of sea ice extent (SIE, we examine the interannual variations of surface air temperature (T2m and sea level pressure (SLP anomalies associated with the GrSTs and SIEs surrounding Greenland, specifically within Baffin Bay, the Greenland Sea and Kara-Barents Seas. During winter, the interannual variation in T2m and SLP of the west and south coasts of GrSTs and the Baffin Bay SIE are different from that of the east coast of GrSTs and the SIEs in the Greenland Sea and Kara-Barents Seas. The GrSTs on the west and south coasts of Greenland and the Baffin Bay SIE are associated with the T2m anomalies over Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. The winter SLP patterns associated with these GrSTs and SIEs show positive anomalies over the Arctic and negative anomalies over the North Atlantic with a large-scale atmospheric circulation such as the winter NAO. On the contrary, the east coast of GrSTs and the SIEs in the Greenland Sea and Kara-Barents Seas are correlated with the T2m anomalies over the Greenland Sea and Barents Sea. The surface wind pattern associated with the SIEs in the Greenland Sea and Kara-Barents Seas has a cyclonic circulation in the Greenland Sea and Barents Sea. At the local scale the cyclonic circulation could induce negative SIE anomalies and contribute to increasing open water in the Greenland Sea and Barents Sea. The effect of the loss of sea ice and the heat from the open ocean warming to the atmosphere may influence the GrSTs in the east coast of Greenland. As a result, the T2m pattern associated with the GrSTs in the east coast of


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The issue describing the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere and its backgrounds seems to be very important because of water vapour role among meteorological processes which are taking place within the atmosphere. The principal aim of this study is to examine the atmospheric circulation conditionings of evaporation and air humidity differentiation in Poland. Research was based on data for the period 1981-2010. The temporal and spatial differentiation of evaporation and air humidity in relation to atmospheric circulation patterns were examined by analysis of evaporation, evapotranspiration as well as specific humidity and saturation deficit values. The circulation factor was determined by a local atmospheric circulation calendar by Niedzwiedz. The results showed that atmospheric circulation is an important factor for humidity and evaporation conditions with the most significant: water vapour content and air mass temperature. Both air humidity and evaporation report temporal and spatial differentiation modified by particular synoptic situations. It is proved mainly by the extremes.

  2. Persistence and photochemical decay of springtime total ozone anomalies in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tegtmeier


    Full Text Available The persistence and decay of springtime total ozone anomalies over the entire extratropics (midlatitudes plus polar regions is analysed using results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM, a comprehensive chemistry-climate model. As in the observations, interannual anomalies established through winter and spring persist with very high correlation coefficients (above 0.8 through summer until early autumn, while decaying in amplitude as a result of photochemical relaxation in the quiescent summertime stratosphere. The persistence and decay of the ozone anomalies in CMAM agrees extremely well with observations, even in the southern hemisphere when the model is run without heterogeneous chemistry (in which case there is no ozone hole and the seasonal cycle of ozone is quite different from observations. However in a version of CMAM with strong vertical diffusion, the northern hemisphere anomalies decay far too rapidly compared to observations. This shows that ozone anomaly persistence and decay does not depend on how the springtime anomalies are created or on their magnitude, but reflects the transport and photochemical decay in the model. The seasonality of the long-term trends over the entire extratropics is found to be explained by the persistence of the interannual anomalies, as in the observations, demonstrating that summertime ozone trends reflect winter/spring trends rather than any change in summertime ozone chemistry. However this mechanism fails in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes because of the relatively large impact, compared to observations, of the CMAM polar anomalies. As in the southern hemisphere, the influence of polar ozone loss in CMAM increases the midlatitude summertime loss, leading to a relatively weak seasonal dependence of ozone loss in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the observations.

  3. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST: northern extratropical response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Maynard


    Full Text Available The ECHAM 3.2 (T21, ECHAM 4 (T30 and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes × 72 latitudes atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500 seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the same response obtained with only one model. A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF, and in June-August (JJA. In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus and Shukla (2000 over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP and in a more N-S tripole on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500. There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogeneous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones. The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderatly to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related

  4. Projections of thermal conditions for Poland for winters 2021?2050 in relation to atmospheric circulation


    Piotr Piotrowski; Joanna Jędruszkiewicz


    Winter thermal conditions in Poland are largely determined by atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the projection of future temperature change should be considered in relation to changes in circulation patterns. This paper assesses the spatial variability in winter temperature in Poland in the 2021?2050 period based on the CLM, HIRHAM5 and RACMO2 models. Thermal conditions in winter have been studied in relation to the atmospheric circulation as a main factor of winter temperature change i...

  5. Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cahynová, Monika; Huth, R.


    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  6. Atmospheric circulation influence on climatic trends in Europe: an analysis of circulation type classifications from the COST733 catalogue

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cahynová, Monika; Huth, Radan


    Roč. 36, č. 7 (2016), s. 2743-2760 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * climatic trends * Europe * COST733 Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  7. Land-sea thermal contrast determines the trend of Walker circulation simulated in atmospheric general circulation models (United States)

    Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Song, Hwan-Jin; Dommenget, Dietmar; Sohn, B. J.


    Strengthening or weakening of the Walker circulation can highly influence the global weather and climate variability by altering the location and strength of tropical heating. Therefore, there is considerable interest in understanding the mechanisms that lead to the trends in the Walker circulation intensity. Conventional wisdom indicates that a strengthening or weakening of the Walker circulation is primarily controlled by inhomogeneous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns across the tropical Pacific basin. However, we show that Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project climate model simulations with identical SST forcing have different Walker circulation trends that can be linked to differences in land surface temperatures. More prominently, stronger land-sea thermal contrast leads to increases in the precipitation in South America as well as the sea level pressure in the eastern tropical Pacific through a local circulation, resulting in a strengthening of the Walker circulation trend. This implies that correctly simulating the land temperature in atmospheric models is crucial to simulating the intensity of the Walker circulation in the present climate as well as its future change.

  8. Venusian Polar Vortex reproduced in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (United States)

    Ando, Hiroki; Imamura, Takeshi; Takagi, Masahiro; Sugimoto, Norihiko; Kashimura, Hiroki

    The Venus atmosphere has a polar vortex rotating in the retrograde direction with a period of about three days. The vortex has a warm feature surrounded by a cold collar (e.g., Taylor et al. 1980; Piccioni et al. 2006). Although the Venusian polar vortex has been reported by many observations, its mechanism is still unknown. Elson (1982, 1989) examined the structure of the polar vortex by linear calculations. However, the background zonal wind assumed in the calculations was much stronger or weaker than those retrieved in the previous measurements (e.g., Peralta et al. 2008; Kouyama et al. 2012). Lee et al. (2010) and Yamamoto and Takahashi (2012) performed numerical simulations with general circulation models (GCMs) of the Venus atmosphere and obtained vertical structure in the polar region. However, the models included artificial forcing of Kelvin and/or Rossby waves. We have developed a new Venusian GCM by modifying the Atmospheric GCM For the Earth Simulator (Sugimoto et al. 2012; 2013). The basic equations of the GCM are primitive ones in the sigma coordinate on a sphere without topography. The model resolution is T42 (i.e., about 2.8 deg x 2.8 deg grids) and L60 (Deltaz is about 2 km). Rayleigh friction (sponge layer) in the upper layer (>80 km) is applied to prevent the reflection of waves, whose effect increases gradually with height. In the model, the atmosphere is dry and forced by the solar heating and Newtonian cooling. The vertical profile of the solar heating is based on Crisp (1986), and zonally averaged distribution is used. In addition diurnal component of the solar heating, which excites the diurnal and semi-diurnal tides, is also included. Newtonian cooling relaxes the temperature to the zonally uniform basic temperature which has a virtual static stability of Venus with almost neutral layers, and its coefficient is based on Crisp (1986). To prevent numerical instability, the biharmonic hyper-diffusion is included with 0.8 days of e-folding time

  9. Multidecadal Thermohaline Circulation Variability Driven by Atmospheric Surface Flux Forcing

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Delworth, Thomas L; Greatbatch, Richard J


      Previous analyses of an extended integration of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model have revealed pronounced multidecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC...

  10. Superdominant Right Coronary Artery with Absence of Left Circumflex and Anomalous Origin of the Left Anterior Descending Coronary from the Right Sinus: An Unheard Coronary Anomaly Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Danillo Peixoto Oliveira


    Full Text Available Coronary artery anomalies are congenital changes in their origin, course, and/or structure. Most of them are discovered as incidental findings during coronary angiographic studies or at autopsies. We present herein the case of a 70-year-old man with symptomatic severe aortic valvar stenosis whose preoperative coronary angiogram revealed a so far unreported coronary anomaly circulation pattern.

  11. The Pechora River Runoff, Atmospheric Circulation and Solar Activity (United States)

    Golovanov, O. F.

    This study presents an attempt to define and estimate the factors effecting and possi- bly, determining the spatial-temporal characteristics of the Pechora River hydrological regime. The time-series of hydrometeorological observations (runoff, precipitation, air temperature) carried out within the basin of the impact object U the Pechora River U are close to secular and include the year of the century maximum of the solar activ- ity (1957). The joint statistical analysis of these characteristics averaged both for a year and for the low water periods in spring (V-VII), summer-autumn (VIII-IX) and winter (X-IV) demonstrated the majority of integral curves to have minimums coin- ciding or slightly differing from the solar activity maximum in 1957. It is especially typical for the spring high water runoff along the entire length of the Pechora River. Only the curves of the air temperature in the summer-autumn low water period are in the opposite phase relative to all other elements. In the upper Pechora the inte- gral curves of winter and annual precipitation are synchronous to the runoff curves. The multiyear variability of the Pechora runoff corresponds to that of the atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere. This is clearly illustrated by the decrease of the Pechora runoff and increase of the climate continentality in its basin, that is ac- companied with predominating of the meridional circulation, anticyclone invasion and precipitation decrease while the solar activity grows. This process takes place at the background of the prevailing mass transport of E+C type, increase of number of the elementary synoptic processes (ESP). The maximum number of ESP (observed in 1963) was recorded soon after the century maximum of the solar activity. This fact may be explained by the anticyclone circulation prevalence which results in growth of the climate continentality in the Pechora basin in this period. The enumerated in- flection points of the integral curves of

  12. Response of the Adriatic Sea to the atmospheric anomaly in 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Grbec


    Full Text Available Unusual weather conditions over the southern Europe and the Mediterranean area in 2003 significantly impacted the oceanographic properties of the Adriatic Sea. To document these changes, both in the atmosphere and the sea, anomalies from the normal climate were calculated. The winter 2003 was extremely cold, whereas the spring/summer period was extremely warm. The air temperature in June was more than 3 standard deviations above the average. On the other hand, precipitation and river runoff were extremely low between February and August. The response of the sea was remarkable, especially in surface salinity during spring and summer, with values at least one standard deviation above the average. Analysis of thermohaline properties in the middle Adriatic showed the importance of two phenomena responsible for the occurrence of exceptionally high salinity: (1 enhanced inflow of saline Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW in the Adriatic, and (2 extremely low precipitation and river runoff, accompanied with strong evaporation. Two large-scale atmospheric indices: NAOI (North Atlantic Oscillation Index and MOI (Mediterranean Oscillation Index, although generally correlated to the Adriatic climate, failed to describe anomalies in 2003. The air pressure gradients used for the definition of both indices significantly decreased in 2003 due to the presence of the high pressure areas over most of Europe and the northern Atlantic, and were actually responsible for the observed anomalies above and in the Adriatic.

  13. Assessment of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations of winter northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vial, Jessica; Osborn, Tim J. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom)


    An assessment of six coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) is undertaken in order to evaluate their ability in simulating winter atmospheric blocking highs in the northern hemisphere. The poor representation of atmospheric blocking in climate models is a long-standing problem (e.g. D'Andrea et al. in Clim Dyn 4:385-407, 1998), and despite considerable effort in model development, there is only a moderate improvement in blocking simulation. A modified version of the Tibaldi and Molteni (in Tellus A 42:343-365, 1990) blocking index is applied to daily averaged 500 hPa geopotential fields, from the ERA-40 reanalysis and as simulated by the climate models, during the winter periods from 1957 to 1999. The two preferred regions of blocking development, in the Euro-Atlantic and North Pacific, are relatively well captured by most of the models. However, the prominent error in blocking simulations consists of an underestimation of the total frequency of blocking episodes over both regions. A more detailed analysis revealed that this error was due to an insufficient number of medium spells and long-lasting episodes, and a shift in blocking lifetime distributions towards shorter blocks in the Euro-Atlantic sector. In the Pacific, results are more diverse; the models are equally likely to overestimate or underestimate the frequency at different spell lengths. Blocking spatial signatures are relatively well simulated in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while errors in the intensity and geographical location of the blocks emerge in the Pacific. The impact of models' systematic errors on blocking simulation has also been analysed. The time-mean atmospheric circulation biases affect the frequency of blocking episodes, and the maximum event duration in the Euro-Atlantic region, while they sometimes cause geographical mislocations in the Pacific sector. The analysis of the systematic error in time-variability has revealed a negative relationship between the

  14. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G P


    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

  15. An influence of extreme southern hemisphere cold surges on the North Atlantic Subtropical High through a shallow atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Bowerman, A. R.; Fu, R.; Yin, L.; Fernando, D. N.; Arias, P. A.; Dickinson, R. E.


    Previous studies have attributed interhemisphere influences of the atmosphere to the latitudinal propagation of planetary waves crossing the equator, to the triggering of equatorial Kelvin waves, or to monsoonal circulation. Over the American-Atlantic sector, such cross-equatorial influences rarely occur during boreal summer due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. We have observed that an alternative mechanism provides an interhemisphere influence. When episodes of extreme cold surges and upper tropospheric westerly winds occur concurrently over southern hemisphere Amazonia, cold surges from extratropical South America can penetrate deep into southern Amazonia. Although they do not appear to influence upper tropospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere, extremely strong southerly cross-equatorial advection (>2σ standard deviations, or 2) of cold and dense air in the lower troposphere can reach as least 10°N. Such cold advection increases the northward cross-equatorial pressure gradient in the lower to middle troposphere, thus shallow northerly return flow below 500 hPa. This return flow and the strong lower tropospheric southerly cross-equatorial flow form an anomalous shallow meridional circulation spanning from southern Amazonia to the subtropical North Atlantic, with increased geopotential height anomalies exceeding +1σ to at least 18°N. It projects onto the southern edge of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), increasing its pressure and leading to equatorward expansion of NASH's southern boundary. These anomalies enhance the NASH, leading to its equatorward expansion. These extreme cold surges can potentially improving the predictability of weather patterns of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, including the variability of the NASH's southern edge.

  16. Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability (United States)

    Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Li, Xiao-Feng; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Pritchard, David


    Identifying mechanisms driving spatially heterogeneous glacial mass-balance patterns in the Himalaya, including the `Karakoram anomaly', is crucial for understanding regional water resource trajectories. Streamflows dependent on glacial meltwater are strongly positively correlated with Karakoram summer air temperatures, which show recent anomalous cooling. We explain these temperature and streamflow anomalies through a circulation system--the Karakoram vortex--identified using a regional circulation metric that quantifies the relative position and intensity of the westerly jet. Winter temperature responses to this metric are homogeneous across South Asia, but the Karakoram summer response diverges from the rest of the Himalaya. We show that this is due to seasonal contraction of the Karakoram vortex through its interaction with the South Asian monsoon. We conclude that interannual variability in the Karakoram vortex, quantified by our circulation metric, explains the variability in energy-constrained ablation manifested in river flows across the Himalaya, with important implications for Himalayan glaciers' futures.

  17. Effect of cloud cover and atmospheric circulation patterns on the observed surface solar radiation in Europe

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chiacchio, Marc; Vitolo, Renato


    ...) in Europe including cloud cover and atmospheric circulation patterns. The role of observed cloud cover on DSW was analyzed through generalized linear models using DSW measurements obtained from the Global Energy Balance Archive during 1971–1996...

  18. Atmospheric influences on the 2016 anomaly in Antarctic seasonal sea ice decay (United States)

    Schlosser, Elisabeth; Raphael, Marilyn; Divine, Dmitry


    In contrast to the Arctic, where total sea ice extent (SIE) has been decreasing for the last three decades, Antarctic SIE has shown a small, but significant increase during the same time period. However, in 2016, the maximum Antarctic SIE was already reached in August, earlier than the normal maximum end of September, and was followed by a rapid decrease. The decay was particularly strong in November where Antarctic SIE exhibited a negative anomaly (compared to the 1981-2010 average) of almost 2 Mio. km2, which combined with reduced Arctic SIE led to a distinct minimum in global SIE. The main area of reduced SIE is situated off the coast of Eastern Dronning Maud Land (approximately 30°-90°E) in the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean and in the Pacific sector (approx. 160°E-170°W). The southern retreat of the ice edge is largest north of Enderby Land. This loss is only partly counteracted by a positive anomaly in SIE off Mary Byrd Land, east of the Ross Sea (centred at approx. 130°W) and at the northern edge of the Weddell Sea. We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (mainly 500hPa geopotential height, sea level pressure and surface winds, but also air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST)) to investigate possible atmospheric influences on the observed phenomena. While SST and air temperature anomalies do not explain the reduced sea ice extent, atmospheric flow patterns hint at a mainly dynamic explanation. Although the picture is not consistent over the entire melt period, taking into account Ekman transport, distinct regional positive and negative anomalies in SIE can be explained by atmospheric dynamics. However, SIE, by definition, only refers to the area with at least 15% sea ice concentration. Sea ice concentration showed positive anomalies in November 2016 in some, but not all of the areas south of the areas of ice loss. A better spatial and temporal coverage of reliable ice thickness data is needed to assess the change in ice mass rather than

  19. The robustness of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation response to future anthropogenic surface warming (United States)

    He, Jie; Soden, Brian J.; Kirtman, Ben


    The impact of long-term sea surface temperature (SST) change on the atmospheric circulation is studied by comparing atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with a spatially uniform SST increase and a structured SST increase. The structured SST increase is calculated from the response of an ensemble of coupled ocean-atmosphere models to increased CO2. Most of the impact of SST pattern change is confined to equatorial Indo-Pacific. However, the circulation change under the two types of SST forcing is similar over the rest of the tropics and almost identical in the extratropics, indicating that the pattern of future SST change has overall little impact on the response of the atmospheric circulation and, in turn, on the resulting changes in precipitation. The tropical similarity is argued to result from energetic constraints that weaken the atmospheric circulation, whereas the extratropical similarity likely results from the insensitivity of Rossby Wave generation to the changes in near-equatorial upper level divergence. A comparison of the AGCM simulations with those from externally forced coupled ocean-atmosphere models suggest that ocean coupling or the direct effect of radiative forcing has a larger impact on the projected changes in circulation and precipitation than the pattern of SST change over most regions.

  20. Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Piotrowski, Piotr; Bednorz, Ewa


    This study describes warm spells in Northern Europe and determines the synoptic situations that cause their occurrence. In this article, a relatively warm day was defined as a day when the maximum temperature exceeded the 95th annual percentile, and a warm spell (WS) was considered to be a sequence of at least five relatively warm days. In the analysed multiannual period and within the investigated area, 24 (Kallax) to 53 (Oslo) WSs were observed. The occurrence of WSs was mainly connected with positive anomalies of sea level pressure and a 500-hPa isobaric surface, displaying the presence of high-pressure systems. This occurrence was also accompanied by positive T850 anomalies.

  1. Lower atmospheric anomalies following the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake observed by GPS measurements (United States)

    Jin, Shuanggen; Han, L.; Cho, J.


    The Mw=8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008 at the Longmen Shan fault, the western Sichuan Basin, China, killing more than ten thousand people in several cities and causing large economic losses. Global Positioning System (GPS) observations have provided unique insights on this event, including co-seismic ionospheric disturbances, co-/post-seismic crustal deformations and fault slip distributions. However, the processes and the driving mechanisms are still not clear, particularly possible seismo-lower atmospheric-ionospheric coupling behaviors. In this paper, the lower atmospheric (tropospheric) variations are investigated using the total zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) from GPS measurements around this event. It has the first found co-seismic tropospheric anomalies during the mainshock with an increase and then a decrease, mainly in the zenith hydrostatic delay component (ZHD), while it is also supported by the same pattern of surface-observed atmospheric pressure changes at co-located GPS site that are driven by the ground-coupled air waves from ground vertical motion of seismic waves propagation. Therefore, the co-seismic tropospheric disturbances (CTD) indicate again the acoustic coupling effect of the atmosphere and the solid-Earth with air wave propagation from the ground to the top atmosphere.

  2. Strong Water Isotopic Anomalies in the Martian Atmosphere: Probing Current and Ancient Reservoirs (United States)

    Villanueva, G. L.; Mumma, M. J.; Novak, R. E.; Käufl, H. U.; Hartogh, P.; Encrenaz, T.; Tokunaga, A.; Khayat, A.; Smith, M. D.


    We measured maps of atmospheric water (H2O) and its deuterated form (HDO) across the martian globe, showing strong isotopic anomalies and a significant high deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) enrichment indicative of great water loss. The maps sample the evolution of sublimation from the north polar cap, revealing that the released water has a representative D/H value enriched by a factor of about 7 relative to Earth's ocean [Vienna standard mean ocean water (VSMOW)]. Certain basins and orographic depressions show even higher enrichment, whereas high-altitude regions show much lower values (1 to 3 VSMOW). Our atmospheric maps indicate that water ice in the polar reservoirs is enriched in deuterium to at least 8 VSMOW, which would mean that early Mars (4.5 billion years ago) had a global equivalent water layer at least 137 meters deep.

  3. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends. (United States)

    Horton, Daniel E; Johnson, Nathaniel C; Singh, Deepti; Swain, Daniel L; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S


    Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth's atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis, we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979-2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990-2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns.

  4. Uncertainities in carbon dioxide radiative forcing in atmospheric general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cess, R.D.; Zhang, M.H. (State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook, NY (United States)); Potter, G.L.; Gates, W.L.; Taylor, K.E. (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA (United States)); Colman, R.A.; Fraser, J.R.; McAvaney, B.J. (Bureau of Meterorology Research Centre, Victoria (Australia)); Dazlich, D.A.; Randall, D.A. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)); Del Genio, A.D.; Lacis, A.A. (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)); Esch, M.; Roeckner, E. (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)); Galin, V. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)); Hack, J.J.; Kiehl, J.T. (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)); Ingram, W.J. (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire (United Kingdom)); Le Treut, H.; Lli, Z.X. (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)); Liang, X.Z.; Wang, W.C. (State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)); Mahfouf,


    Global warming, caused by an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, is the direct result of greenhouse gas-induced radiative forcing. When a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide is considered, this forcing differed substantially among 15 atmospheric general circulation models. Although there are several potential causes, the largest contributor was the carbon dioxide radiation parameterizations of the models.

  5. NUCLA Circulating Atmospheric Fluidized Bed Demonstration Project. 1990 Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    The objective of this DOE Cooperative Agreement is to conduct a cost-shared clean coal technology project to demonstrate the feasibility of circulating fluidized bed combustion technology and to evaluate economic, environmental, and operational benefits of CFB steam generators on a utility scale. At the conclusion of the Phase 2 program, testing related to satisfying these objectives was completed. Data analysis and reporting are scheduled for completion by October 1991. (VC)

  6. Atmospheric circulation in northern hemisphere and north atlantic oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Вадимович Холопцев


    Full Text Available Conditions under which statistical connections of interannual changes of repitition duration periods in Northern hemisphere of elementary circulation mechanisms associated to meridional northern and meridional southern groups with variations of North Atlantic oscillation are significant were revealed. It is shown, that the characteristics changes of these connections taking place in modern period can be caused by distribution changes of distribution of sea surface temperatures

  7. Impact of the Projected Future Sea Ice Concentrations on the Atmospheric Circulation (United States)

    Bader, J.; Seierstad, I.


    The observed decline of Arctic sea ice cover and the projected future reduction raise the question of how reduced Artic sea ice will influence/feed back on the climate. Using the projected future sea ice concentration by the coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice model ECHAM5/MPI, we investigate the impact of the changed sea ice cover on the atmospheric circulation by conducting atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. We force the AGCM ECHAM5 by the current seasonal cycle of arctic sea ice and the projected future arctic seasonal cycle. The goal of this experiment is to determine the impact of the Artic sea ice reduction - that is projected in the next 100 years - on the atmospheric circulation. We find a significant reduction in storminess. The response to sea ice concentration changes differs strongly even on intraseasonal time scales.

  8. Winter climate anomalies in Europe and their associated circulation at 500 hPa (United States)

    Fraedrich, Klaus; Bantzer, Christian; Burkhardt, Ulrike


    Regional anomalies of the surface climate over Europe are defined by a simultanous EOF-analysis of the normalized monthly mean sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation fields of 100 winters (December February, 1887 1986) at 40 stations. The monthly amplitudes of the first EOF (about 25% of the total variance) are used as an index for the monthly winter climate anomaly. They characterize a high (low) pressure cell over central Europe associated with a positive (negative) temperature and precipitation anomaly over northern (central-southern) Europe as indicated by a northward (southward) shift of the tail end of the cross-Atlantic cyclone track. These patterns resemble the phenomenological anticyclonic (cyclonic) Grosswetter classification and the European blocking (enhanced zonal flow) regime. The second EOF is of similar magnitude and gives latitudinal corrections to these two basic flow regimes. The joint probability distribution of both amplitudes shows a weak bimodality mainly associated with the first EOF. Further insight into the underlying physical processes of the climate anomaly patterns in Europe is obtained from the extended Eliassen-Palm flux diagnostics of the barotropic transient eddy-mean flow interaction (Hoskins et al. 1983) and the stationary wave propagation (Plumb 1985). The diagnostics confined to the barotropic components and applied to the regression and the composite anomaly fields of the transient and stationary eddy flows of the 500 hPa geopotential (1946 87, north of 20°N) leads to the following results: (1) The bandpass filtered transient eddy variances of the 500 hPa geopotential show a shift of the cross-Atlantic storm track: In high (low) pressure situations over Europe the cross-Atlantic storm track intensity is enhanced (reduced) and its tail end is shifted northward (remains zonal); the North Pacific storm track extends further (less) eastward and thus closer to the west coast of North America. (2) The extreme high

  9. Surface atmospheric circulation patterns and associated minimum temperatures in the Maipo and Casablanca valleys, central Chile (United States)

    Montes, Carlo; Muñoz, Ricardo C.; Perez-Quezada, Jorge F.


    This paper analyzes the influence of circulation anomalies on the magnitude of minimum air temperature ( T min) at a daily scale in two important agricultural valleys of Chile (Maipo and Casablanca) during the period 2001-2007. A statistical classification of synoptic fields was performed, resulting in eight circulation patterns (CPs, 84 % of explained variance). The corresponding anomalies of T min (ATmin) of each CP were analyzed in order to understand their synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms. Results showed a direct association between ATmin and the synoptic structure. The average weakening in sea level pressure (SLP) yields positive ATmin, while negative ATmin is associated with a strengthening in SLP. In the latter case, it was also found that a synoptic structure (10.2 % of frequency) corresponding to a migratory high-pressure system passing eastward across the Andes led to the lowest ATmin and a higher probability of frost in both valleys (22 % on average) in winter and springtime.

  10. Active upper-atmosphere chemistry and dynamics from polar circulation reversal on Titan (United States)

    Teanby, Nicholas A.; Irwin, Patrick G. J.; Nixon, Conor A.; de Kok, Remco; Vinatier, Sandrine; Coustenis, Athena; Sefton-Nash, Elliot; Calcutt, Simon B.; Flasar, F. Michael


    Saturn's moon Titan has a nitrogen atmosphere comparable to Earth's, with a surface pressure of 1.4 bar. Numerical models reproduce the tropospheric conditions very well but have trouble explaining the observed middle-atmosphere temperatures, composition and winds. The top of the middle-atmosphere circulation has been thought to lie at an altitude of 450 to 500 kilometres, where there is a layer of haze that appears to be separated from the main haze deck. This `detached' haze was previously explained as being due to the co-location of peak haze production and the limit of dynamical transport by the circulation's upper branch. Here we report a build-up of trace gases over the south pole approximately two years after observing the 2009 post-equinox circulation reversal, from which we conclude that middle-atmosphere circulation must extend to an altitude of at least 600 kilometres. The primary drivers of this circulation are summer-hemisphere heating of haze by absorption of solar radiation and winter-hemisphere cooling due to infrared emission by haze and trace gases; our results therefore imply that these effects are important well into the thermosphere (altitudes higher than 500 kilometres). This requires both active upper-atmosphere chemistry, consistent with the detection of high-complexity molecules and ions at altitudes greater than 950 kilometres, and an alternative explanation for the detached haze, such as a transition in haze particle growth from monomers to fractal structures.

  11. Active Upper-atmosphere Chemistry and Dynamics from Polar Circulation Reversal on Titan (United States)

    Teanby, Nicholas A.; Irwin, Patrick Gerard Joseph; Nixon, Conor A.; DeKok, Remco; Vinatier, Sandrine; Coustenis, Athena; Sefton-Nash, Elliot; Calcutt, Simon B.; Flasar, Michael F.


    Saturn's moon Titan has a nitrogen atmosphere comparable to Earth's, with a surface pressure of 1.4 bar. Numerical models reproduce the tropospheric conditions very well but have trouble explaining the observed middle-atmosphere temperatures, composition and winds. The top of the middle-atmosphere circulation has been thought to lie at an altitude of 450 to 500 kilometres, where there is a layer of haze that appears to be separated from the main haze deck. This 'detached' haze was previously explained as being due to the colocation of peak haze production and the limit of dynamical transport by the circulation's upper branch. Herewe report a build-up of trace gases over the south pole approximately two years after observing the 2009 post-equinox circulation reversal, from which we conclude that middle-atmosphere circulation must extend to an altitude of at least 600 kilometres. The primary drivers of this circulation are summer-hemisphere heating of haze by absorption of solar radiation and winter-hemisphere cooling due to infrared emission by haze and trace gases; our results therefore imply that these effects are important well into the thermosphere (altitudes higher than 500 kilometres). This requires both active upper-atmosphere chemistry, consistent with the detection of high-complexity molecules and ions at altitudes greater than 950 kilometres, and an alternative explanation for the detached haze, such as a transition in haze particle growth from monomers to fractal structures.

  12. Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martin-Puertas, C.; Matthes, K.; Brauer, A.; Muscheler, R.; Hansen, F.; Petrick, C.; Aldahan, A.; Possnert, G.; van Geel, B.


    Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate1 by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun2, 3. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when

  13. What are the most fire-dangerous atmospheric circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the synoptic wildfire climatology. (United States)

    Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A


    Wildfire management is closely linked to robust forecasts of changes in wildfire risk related to meteorological conditions. This link can be bridged either through fire weather indices or through statistical techniques that directly relate atmospheric patterns to wildfire activity. In the present work the COST-733 classification schemes are applied in order to link wildfires in Greece with synoptic circulation patterns. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfire events can be explained by a small number of specific synoptic circulations, hence reflecting the synoptic climatology of wildfires. All 8 classification schemes used, prove that the most fire-dangerous conditions in Greece are characterized by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the very Eastern part of the Mediterranean, an atmospheric pressure pattern closely linked to the local Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea. During these events, the atmospheric pressure has been reported to be anomalously high, while anomalously low 500hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies were also observed. Among the various classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis-based classifications, namely the PCT and the PXE, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification LND proved to be the best options, in terms of being capable to isolate the vast amount of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is estimated that these 3 schemes, in combination with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Active-active and active-sterile neutrino oscillation solutions to the atmospheric neutrino anomaly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez-Garcia, M.C. E-mail:; Nunokawa, H. E-mail:; Peres, O.L.G. E-mail:; Valle, J.W.F. E-mail:


    We perform a fit to the full data set corresponding to 33.0 kt-yr of data of the Super-Kamiokande experiment as well as to all other experiments in order to compare the two most likely solutions to the atmospheric neutrino anomaly in terms of oscillations in the {nu}{sub {mu}} {yields} {nu}{sub {tau}} and {nu}{sub {mu}} {yields} {nu}{sub s} channels. Using state-of-the-art atmospheric neutrino fluxes we have determined the allowed regions of oscillation parameters for both channels. We find that the {delta}m{sup 2} values for the active-sterile oscillations (both for positive and negative {delta}m{sup 2}) are higher than for the {nu}{sub {mu}} {yields} {nu}{sub {tau}} case, and that the increased Super-Kamiokande sample slightly favours {nu}{sub {mu}} {yields} {nu}{sub {tau}} oscillations over oscillations into a sterile species {nu}{sub s}, {nu}{sub {mu}} {yields} {nu}{sub s}, and disfavours {nu}{sub {mu}} {yields} {nu}{sub e}. We also give the zenith angle distributions predicted for the best fit points in each of the possible oscillation channels. Finally we compare our determinations of the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters with the expected sensitivities of future long-baseline experiments K2K, MINOS, ICARUS, OPERA and NOE.

  15. Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes (United States)

    Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin


    Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

  16. Reproduction of influence of autumn snow cover anomalies on the following winter atmospheric dynamics in INMCM4.0 and INMCM5.0 data (United States)

    Martynova, Yuliya


    . Acknowledgements Author acknowledges Dr. Volodin E.M. for providing INMCM data and valued advices. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant 13-05-12034, 13-05-00480, 14-05-00502 and grant of the President of the Russian Federation. References Allen R.J. and Zender C.S. Forcing of the Arctic Oscillation by Eurasian snow cover. // J. Climate. 2011. Volume 24. P. 6528-6539. Cohen J., Barlow M., Kushner P.J., Saito K. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with Eurasian land-surface variability. // J. Climate. 2007. Volume 20. P. 5335-5343. Gong G., Entekhabi D., Cohen J. Modeled Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to realistic Siberian snow anomalies. // J. Climate, 2003. -- V. 16. -- P. 3917-3931. Martynova Yu.V. and Krupchatnikov V.N. A study of the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Eurasia in winter to snow-cover anomalies: The role of the stratosphere // Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2010. V 46, Issue 6, pp 757-769. Volodin E.M., Dianskii N.A., Gusev A.V. Simulating Present-Day Climate with the INMCM4.0 Coupled Model of the Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulations // Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2010. V 46, No. 4, pp 414-431. Volodin E.M. Possible reasons for low climate-model sensitivity to increased carbon dioxide concentrations // Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2014. V 50, Issue 4 , pp 350-355.

  17. Weird planets and odd relations: Atmospheric Circulation on Hot Jupiters (United States)

    Zhang, Michael; Knutson, Heather; Kataria, Tiffany; Burrows, Adam; Fortney, Jonathan


    We extract phase curves from Spitzer photometry for the highly irradiated hot Jupiter WASP-33b and the unusually dense Saturn-mass planet HD 149026b. To do so, we develop a new variant of Pixel Level Decorrelation that is effective at removing intrapixel sensitivity variations for long observations (> 10 hours) where the position of the star can vary by a significant fraction of a pixel. Using this algorithm, we derive eclipse depths, phase amplitudes, and phase offsets for both planets at 3.6 um and 4.5 um. We use a simple toy model to show that WASP-33b's phase offset, albedo, and heat recirculation efficiency are largely similar to those of other hot Jupiters despite its very high irradiation. On the other hand, our fits for HD 149026b prefer a very high albedo and an unusually high recirculation efficiency. We also compare our results to predictions from GCM models, and find that while neither provide a good match to the data, the discrepancies for HD 149026b are unusually large. We speculate that this may be related to its high bulk metallicity, which could lead to enhanced atmospheric opacities and the formation of reflective cloud layers in localized regions of the atmosphere. We then place these two planets in a broader context by exploring relationships between the temperatures, albedos, efficiencies, and phase offsets of all planets with published thermal phase curves. We find a striking relationship between phase offset and irradiation temperature--the former dips with temperature until around 3300 K, and rises thereafter. Although some aspects of this trend are mirrored in GCM models, there are notable differences that provide important clues for future modeling efforts.

  18. Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean-atmosphere dynamical model (United States)

    Miles, Elaine R.; Spillman, Claire M.; Church, John A.; McIntosh, Peter C.


    Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993-2010 and model reanalysis over 1981-2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981-2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.

  19. Classifications of Winter Euro-Atlantic Circulation Patterns: An Intercomparison of Five Atmospheric Reanalyses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Stryhal, J.; Huth, Radan


    Roč. 30, č. 19 (2017), s. 7847-7861 ISSN 0894-8755 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * climate models * Europe * model evaluation/performance * reanalysis data Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 4.161, year: 2016

  20. Atmospheric Anomalies in the Transition Zone between the Sea Ice Edge and the Open Beaufort Sea (United States)

    Candlish, L. M.; Barber, D. G.


    The Arctic is an understudied area that contributes greatly to the global circulation and radiation budget. Increases in ocean temperatures and air temperatures have caused reductions in sea ice thickness, sea ice volume, average age of ice and an increasing melt season length. These changes in sea ice cover can release large heat and moisture fluxes into the Arctic atmosphere, modifying the regional boundary layer climate. In order to better understand the changes being observed in the Arctic, there must first be an in depth understanding of the influence from sea ice on the atmosphere. A Radiometrics Microwave Profiling Radiometer (MWRP) was mounted on board of the CCGS Amundsen during the summer of 2011. The MWRP captured the transition of the temperature, absolute humidity and liquid water from over the sea ice to the open ocean. The high temporal resolution of the MWRP was capable of capturing the changing moisture plumes and temperature gradients, using the off-zenith profiles over the port side, the zenith profiles over the ship and the off-zenith profiles over the starboard side, while the ship was moored to a large piece of ice. This presentation shows case studies from August 2011, giving a first glimpse of the influence sea ice has on the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer.

  1. Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer (United States)

    Lee, Jae Nyung


    variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the

  2. Modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation estimated by AGCMs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grainger, Simon; Frederiksen, Carsten S. [Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne (Australia); Zheng, Xiaogu [National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington (New Zealand); Beijing Normal University, College of Global Change and Earth System, Beijing (China); Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Knight, Jeff R. [Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter (United Kingdom); Jin, Emilia K.; Kinter, James L. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Schubert, Siegfried [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Syktus, Jozef [Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Brisbane (Australia)


    The seasonal mean variability of the atmospheric circulation is affected by processes with time scales from less than seasonal to interannual or longer. Using monthly mean data from an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) realisations, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into intraseasonal, and slowly varying components. For the first time, using a recently developed method, the slowly varying component in multiple AGCM ensembles is further separated into internal and externally forced components. This is done for Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height from five AGCMs in the CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century project for the summer and winter seasons. In both seasons, the intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are qualitatively well reproduced by the models when compared with reanalysis data, with a relative metric finding little overall difference between the models. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is by far the dominant mode of slowly varying internal atmospheric variability. Two slow-external modes of variability are related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and a third is the atmospheric response to trends in external forcing. An ENSO-SAM relationship is found in the model slow modes of variability, similar to that found by earlier studies using reanalysis data. There is a greater spread in the representation of model slow-external modes in winter than summer, particularly in the atmospheric response to external forcing trends. This may be attributable to weaker external forcing constraints on SH atmospheric circulation in winter. (orig.)

  3. Orbit-spin coupling and the circulation of the Martian atmosphere (United States)

    Shirley, James H.


    The physical origins of the observed interannual variability of weather and climate on Mars are poorly understood. In this paper we introduce a deterministic physical mechanism that may account for much of the variability of the circulation of the Mars atmosphere on seasonal and longer timescales. We focus on a possible coupling between the planetary orbital angular momentum and the angular momentum of the planetary rotation. We suspect that the planetary atmosphere may participate in an exchange of momentum between these two reservoirs. Nontrivial changes in the circulation of the atmosphere are likely to occur, as the atmospheric system gains and loses angular momentum, during this exchange. We derive a coupling expression linking orbital and rotational motions that produces an acceleration field varying with position and with time on and within a subject body. The spatially and temporally varying accelerations may interfere constructively or destructively with large-scale flows of geophysical fluids that are established and maintained by other means. This physical hypothesis predicts cycles of intensification and relaxation of circulatory flows of atmospheres on seasonal and longer timescales that are largely independent of solar forcing. The predictions of this hypothesis may be tested through numerical modeling. Examples from investigations of the atmospheric circulation of Mars are provided to illustrate qualitative features and quantitative aspects of the coupling mechanism proposed.

  4. The role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation response to climate change. (United States)

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Hoskins, Brian; Shepherd, Ted


    The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change hot-spot, due to a projected reduction in precipitation which could have large socio—economic impacts by affecting fresh water availability for agricultural and societal needs. However, the mechanisms that control such precipitation change are not well understood and there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected precipitation change. We here show that more than 80% of the variance in the wintertime precipitation change in the CMIP5 models projections is linked to uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to climate change. This is demonstrated by introducing a simple index of atmospheric circulation based on the intensity of the westerly flow in North Africa. It is shown that the relationship between precipitation and circulation under climate change is consistent to what is found in the year to year variability. However, many CMIP5 climate models have biases in their ability of capturing the observed relationship between circulation and precipitation. This suggests that climate models may tend to underestimate the realised precipitation change for any given change in the atmospheric circulation.

  5. Resilience of the Asian atmospheric circulation shown by Paleogene dust provenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Licht, A.; Dupont-Nivet, G.; Pullen, A.; Kapp, P.; Abels, H.A.; Lai, Z.; Guo, Z.; Abell, J.; Giesler, D.


    The onset of modern central Asian atmospheric circulation is traditionally linked to the interplay of surface uplift of the Mongolian and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens, retreat of the Paratethys sea from central Asia and Cenozoic global cooling. Although the role of these players has not yet been

  6. Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate (United States)

    García-Serrano, J.; Frankignoul, C.; King, M. P.; Arribas, A.; Gao, Y.; Guemas, V.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Park, W.; Sanchez-Gomez, E.


    A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland-Barents-Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979-2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea

  7. Implementing Numerical Experiments Based on the Coupled Model of Atmospheric General Circulation and Thermohaline Ocean One

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko


    Full Text Available The paper presents a realized hydrodynamic three-dimensional global climatic model, which comprises the model blocks of atmospheric general circulation, thermohaline large-scale circulation of the ocean, and sea ice evolution. Before rather strongly aggregated heat-moisturebalance model of the atmosphere for temperature and humidity of a surface layer was used as a model of the atmosphere. The atmospheric general circulation model is significantly more complicated and allows us to describe processes in the atmosphere more adequately. Functioning of a coupled climatic model is considered in conditions of the seasonal cycle of solar radiation.The paper considers a procedure for coupled calculation of the ocean model and atmospheric general circulation model. Synchronization of a number of parameters in both models is necessary for their joint action. In this regard a procedure of two-dimensional interpolation of data defined on the grids of the ocean model and atmosphere model and back is developed. A feature of this task is discrepancy of grid nodes and continental configurations in models. Coupled model-based long-term calculations for more than 400 years have shown its stable work. Calculation results and comparison with observation data are under discussion.The paper shows distribution of mean global atmosphere temperature versus time in stable conditions to demonstrate that there is inter-annual variability of atmosphere temperature at the steady state of a climate system. It presents distribution of temperature difference of the ocean surface from the observations and from the model of the ocean thermohaline circulation for January. Noticeable deviations of temperature are observed near Antarctica. Apparently, it is because of inaccurate calculation of the sea ice distribution in model. The geographical distribution of the ocean surface temperature for January with coupled calculation shows, in general, a zonal uniform structure of isolines

  8. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the formation of snow cover on the north eastern Siberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Kononova


    Full Text Available Based on daily data of the five meteorological stations located in different parts of northeastern Siberia (Anadyr, Chokurdakh, Wrangell Island, Verkhoyansk, Markovo the change of dates of formation, occurrence and maximum snow depth from year to year for the entire period of observation to 2008 is analyzed. The results are compared with long-term changes of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and in a particular region (according to classification by B.L. Dzerdzeevskii, V.M. Kurganskaya and Z.M. Vitvitskaya. The differences in the fluctuations of selected indicators in circulation epochs are considered. The types of circulation, contribute to early or late formation of snow cover, as well as early or late it outright are identified. Macro-circulation processes which correspond with snowy or little snowy winters are defined. Time changing of maximum snow depth formation is considered. The change in frequency of extreme values of considered characteristics par circulation epochs and their relationship with macro-circulation processes, including possible tends, are analyzed. During recent years, in the Northeastern Siberia with sharp inter-annual fluctuations of atmosphere processes the later dates of setting and earlier dates of disappearance of snow cover dominate, which reduces the duration of snow cover, in comparison with long-term average. Maximum snow depth in all stations, except Anadyr, are above the average long-term value. There is a trend of increase the maximum snow depth, its duration, as well as its later formation, compare with the average, which indicates the increase in proportion of solid precipitation at the end of winter. These are facilitated by increasing of blocking atmospheric processes duration.

  9. Atmospheric circulation modeling of super Earths and terrestrial extrasolar planets using the SPARC/MITgcm (United States)

    Kataria, T.; Showman, A. P.; Haberle, R. M.; Marley, M. S.; Fortney, J. J.; Freedman, R. S.


    The field of exoplanets continues to be a booming field of research in astronomy and planetary science, with numerous ground-based (e.g., SuperWASP, HARPS-N and S) and space-based surveys (e.g., Kepler) that detect and characterize planets ranging from hot Jupiters, Jovian-sized planets orbiting less than 0.1 AU from their star, to super Earths and terrestrial exoplanets, planets that have masses equal to or less than 10 times that of Earth with a range of orbital distances. Atmospheric circulation modeling plays an important role in the characterization of these planets, helping to constrain observations that probe their atmospheres. These models have proven successful in understanding observations of transiting exoplanets (when the planet passes in front of the star along our line of sight) particularly when the planet is passing through secondary eclipse (when the planet's dayside is visible). In modeling super Earths and terrestrial exoplanets, we must consider not only planets with thick fluid envelopes, but also traditional terrestrial planets with solid surfaces and thinner atmospheres. To that end, we present results from studies investigating the atmospheric circulation of these classes of planets using the SPARC/MITgcm, a state-of-the-art model which couples the MIT General Circulation Model with a plane-parallel, two-stream, non-gray radiative transfer model. We will present results from two studies, the first focusing on the circulation of GJ 1214b, a super-Earth detected by the MEarth ground-based survey, and a second study which explores the circulation of terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M-dwarfs.

  10. The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle (United States)

    Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan


    Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

  11. The East Asian Atmospheric Water Cycle and Monsoon Circulation in the Met Office Unified Model (United States)

    Rodríguez, José M.; Milton, Sean F.; Marzin, Charline


    In this study the low-level monsoon circulation and observed sources of moisture responsible for the maintenance and seasonal evolution of the East Asian monsoon are examined, studying the detailed water budget components. These observational estimates are contrasted with the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) climate simulation performance in capturing the circulation and water cycle at a variety of model horizontal resolutions and in fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations. We study the role of large-scale circulation in determining the hydrological cycle by analyzing key systematic errors in the model simulations. MetUM climate simulations exhibit robust circulation errors, including a weakening of the summer west Pacific Subtropical High, which leads to an underestimation of the southwesterly monsoon flow over the region. Precipitation and implied diabatic heating biases in the South Asian monsoon and Maritime Continent region are shown, via nudging sensitivity experiments, to have an impact on the East Asian monsoon circulation. By inference, the improvement of these tropical biases with increased model horizontal resolution is hypothesized to be a factor in improvements seen over East Asia with increased resolution. Results from the annual cycle of the hydrological budget components in five domains show a good agreement between MetUM simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis in northern and Tibetan domains. In simulations, the contribution from moisture convergence is larger than in reanalysis, and they display less precipitation recycling over land. The errors are closely linked to monsoon circulation biases.

  12. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China (United States)

    Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian


    Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

  13. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry – general circulation model: Comparison with observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hein

    Full Text Available The coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM is presented which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks. This is the first model which interactively combines a general circulation model with a chemical model, employing most of the important reactions and species necessary to describe the stratospheric and upper tropospheric ozone chemistry, and which is computationally fast enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. This is possible as the model time-step used for the chemistry can be chosen as large as the integration time-step for the dynamics. Vertically the atmosphere is discretized by 39 levels from the surface up to the top layer which is centred at 10 hPa, with a relatively high vertical resolution of approximately 700 m near the extra-tropical tropopause. We present the results of a control simulation representing recent conditions (1990 and compare it to available observations. The focus is on investigations of stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. ECHAM4.L39(DLR/CHEM reproduces main features of stratospheric dynamics in the arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to earlier model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their inter-hemispheric differences are reproduced. Considering methane oxidation as part of the dynamic-chemistry feedback results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapour concentrations. The current model constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic

  14. High-resolution numerical simulation of Venus atmosphere by AFES (Atmospheric general circulation model For the Earth Simulator) (United States)

    Sugimoto, Norihiko; AFES project Team


    We have developed an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for Venus on the basis of AFES (AGCM For the Earth Simulator) and performed a high-resolution simulation (e.g., Sugimoto et al., 2014a). The highest resolution is T639L120; 1920 times 960 horizontal grids (grid intervals are about 20 km) with 120 vertical layers (layer intervals are about 1 km). In the model, the atmosphere is dry and forced by the solar heating with the diurnal and semi-diurnal components. The infrared radiative process is simplified by adopting Newtonian cooling approximation. The temperature is relaxed to a prescribed horizontally uniform temperature distribution, in which a layer with almost neutral static stability observed in the Venus atmosphere presents. A fast zonal wind in a solid-body rotation is given as the initial state.Starting from this idealized superrotation, the model atmosphere reaches a quasi-equilibrium state within 1 Earth year and this state is stably maintained for more than 10 Earth years. The zonal-mean zonal flow with weak midlatitude jets has almost constant velocity of 120 m/s in latitudes between 45°S and 45°N at the cloud top levels, which agrees very well with observations. In the cloud layer, baroclinic waves develop continuously at midlatitudes and generate Rossby-type waves at the cloud top (Sugimoto et al., 2014b). At the polar region, warm polar vortex surrounded by a cold latitude band (cold collar) is well reproduced (Ando et al., 2016). As for horizontal kinetic energy spectra, divergent component is broadly (k > 10) larger than rotational component compared with that on Earth (Kashimura et al., in preparation). We will show recent results of the high-resolution run, e.g., small-scale gravity waves attributed to large-scale thermal tides. Sugimoto, N. et al. (2014a), Baroclinic modes in the Venus atmosphere simulated by GCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, Vol. 119, p1950-1968.Sugimoto, N. et al. (2014b), Waves in a Venus general

  15. Asian Dust Storm Activity and Its Association with Atmospheric Circulation from 1995 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Yuh Yu


    Full Text Available In this pa per, Asian dust storm activity from 1995 to 2006 and the associated atmospheric circulation are examined using SYNOP data and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric data. Observations show that the Gobi Desert is the most frequent birth place for severe dust events in Asia, accounting for pproximately 58% of the total percent age, followed by about 32% from the Taklamakan Desert and nearly 10% from the Loess Plateau. Climatologically, the existence of a large-scale dry zone over mid-latitudes of Asia during the Spring pro vides a favor able environment for the frequent occurrences of dust events and subsequent dust transport across Asia.

  16. Precipitation extremes in the wettest Mediterranean region (Krivošije) and associated atmospheric circulation types (United States)

    Ducić, V.; Luković, J.; Burić, D.; Stanojević, G.; Mustafić, S.


    The aim of this paper is to analyse indices of extreme precipitation in Krivošije, Montenegro, the wettest Mediterranean region, from the period 1951-2007 and their relationships with atmospheric circulation using "SynopVis Grosswetterlagen" (SVG) series. Data from two stations were analysed, namely Crkvice (42°34'N and 18°39'E) and Herceg Novi (42°27'N and 18°31'E). Four indices of precipitation extremes (SDII, R75p, R95p, R95pTOT) were assessed including number of dry days. The results suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased. To analyse the relationship between extreme precipitation events and circulation types we have used an efficiency coefficient (Ec). Regarding relation to atmospheric circulation, westerly, southwesterly and northwesterly circulation types with anticyclonic features over Central Europe are more frequent for dry days (days with Rcyclonic condition over Central Europe show a large proportion of wet and very wet days. Also, activity of Genoa cyclogenesis and orographic influence over a small area are the main reasons for the high precipitation amounts recorded in the Krivošije region (Crkvice).

  17. Dynamics of Arctic and Sub-Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Circulation: Diagnosis of Mechanisms and Biases Using Data Assimilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eric T. DeWeaver


    This is the final report for DOE grant DE-FG02-07ER64434 to Eric DeWeaver at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The overall goal of work performed under this grant is to enhance understanding of simulations of present-day climate and greenhouse gas-induced climate change. Enhanced understanding is desirable 1) as a prerequisite for improving simulations; 2) for assessing the credibility of model simulations and their usefulness as tools for decision support; and 3) as a means to identify robust behaviors which commonly occur over a wide range of models, and may yield insights regarding the dominant physical mechanisms which determine mean climate and produce climate change. A furthe objective is to investigate the use of data assimilation as a means for examining and correcting model biases. Our primary focus is on the Arctic, but the scope of the work was expanded to include the global climate system to the extent that research targets of opportunity present themselves. Research performed under the grant falls into five main research areas: 1) a study of data assimilation using an ensemble filter with the atmospheric circulation model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in which both conventional observations and observations of the refraction of radio waves from GPS satellites were used to constrain the atmospheric state of the model; 2) research on the likely future status of polar bears, in which climate model simluations were used to assess the effectiveness of climate change mitigation efforts in preserving the habitat of polar bears, now considered a threatened species under global warming; 3) as assessment of the credibility of Arctic sea ice thickness simulations from climate models; 4) An examination of the persistence and reemergence of Northern Hemisphere sea ice area anomalies in climate model simulations and in observations; 5) An examination of the roles played by changes in net radiation and surface relative humidity in determine the

  18. Debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps: seasonality and atmospheric circulation patterns


    E. I. Nikolopoulos; M. Borga; Marra, F.; Crema, S.; Marchi, L.


    The work examines the seasonality and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with debris-flow occurrence in the Trentino–Alto Adige region (eastern Italian Alps). Analysis is based on classification algorithms applied to a uniquely dense archive of debris flows and hourly rain gauge precipitation series covering the period 2000–2009. Results highlight the seasonal and synoptic forcing patterns linked to debris flows in the study area. Summer and fall season ...

  19. Orbital, tectonic and oceanographic controls on Pliocene climate and atmospheric circulation in Arctic Norway (United States)

    Panitz, Sina; Salzmann, Ulrich; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; De Schepper, Stijn; Pound, Matthew J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Lunt, Daniel J.


    During the Pliocene Epoch, a stronger-than-present overturning circulation has been invoked to explain the enhanced warming in the Nordic Seas region in comparison to low to mid-latitude regions. While marine records are indicative of changes in the northward heat transport via the North Atlantic Current (NAC) during the Pliocene, the long-term terrestrial climate evolution and its driving mechanisms are poorly understood. We present the first two-million-year-long Pliocene pollen record for the Nordic Seas region from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 642B, reflecting vegetation and climate in Arctic Norway, to assess the influence of oceanographic and atmospheric controls on Pliocene climate evolution. The vegetation record reveals a long-term cooling trend in northern Norway, which might be linked to a general decline in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the studied interval, and climate oscillations primarily controlled by precession (23 kyr), obliquity (54 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) forcing. In addition, the record identifies four major shifts in Pliocene vegetation and climate mainly controlled by changes in northward heat transport via the NAC. Cool temperate (warmer than present) conditions prevailed between 5.03-4.30 Ma, 3.90-3.47 Ma and 3.29-3.16 Ma and boreal (similar to present) conditions predominated between 4.30-3.90 Ma, 3.47-3.29 and after 3.16 Ma. A distinct decline in sediment and pollen accumulation rates at c. 4.65 Ma is probably linked to changes in ocean currents, marine productivity and atmospheric circulation. Climate model simulations suggest that changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Early Pliocene could have affected atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas region, which would have affected the direction of pollen transport from Scandinavia to ODP Hole 642B.

  20. 3D General Circulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere of Jupiter (United States)

    Zube, Nicholas Gerard; Zhang, Xi; Li, Cheng; Le, Tianhao


    The characteristics of Jupiter’s large-scale stratospheric circulation remain largely unknown. Detailed distributions of temperature and photochemical species have been provided by recent observations [1], but have not yet been accurately reproduced by middle atmosphere general circulation models (GCM). Jupiter’s stratosphere and upper troposphere are influenced by radiative forcing from solar insolation and infrared cooling from hydrogen and hydrocarbons, as well as waves propagating from the underlying troposphere [2]. The relative significance of radiative and mechanical forcing on stratospheric circulation is still being debated [3]. Here we present a 3D GCM of Jupiter’s atmosphere with a correlated-k radiative transfer scheme. The simulation results are compared with observations. We analyze the impact of model parameters on the stratospheric temperature distribution and dynamical features. Finally, we discuss future tracer transport and gravity wave parameterization schemes that may be able to accurately simulate the middle atmosphere dynamics of Jupiter and other giant planets.[1] Kunde et al. 2004, Science 305, 1582.[2] Zhang et al. 2013a, EGU General Assembly, EGU2013-5797-2.[3] Conrath 1990, Icarus, 83, 255-281.

  1. Examining the West African Monsoon circulation response to atmospheric heating in a GCM dynamical core (United States)

    Chadwick, R.; Martin, G. M.; Copsey, D.; Bellon, G.; Caian, M.; Codron, F.; Rio, C.; Roehrig, R.


    Diabatic heating plays a crucial role in the formation and maintenance of the West African Monsoon. A dynamical core configuration of a General Circulation Model (GCM) is used to test the influence of diabatic heating from different sources and regions on the strength and northward penetration of the monsoon circulation. The dynamical core is able to capture the main features of the monsoon flow, and when forced with heating tendencies from various different GCMs it recreates many of the differences seen between the full GCM monsoon circulations. Differences in atmospheric short-wave absorption over the Sahara and Sahel regions are a key driver of variation in the models' monsoon circulations, and this is likely to be linked to how aerosols, clouds and surface albedo are represented across the models. The magnitude of short-wave absorption also appears to affect the strength and position of the African easterly jet (AEJ), but not that of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). The dynamical core is also used here to understand circulation changes that occur during the ongoing model development process that occurs at each modeling centre, providing the potential to trace these changes to specific alterations in model physics.

  2. The climatological mean atmospheric transport under weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation climate scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erukhimova, T. [Texas A and M University, Department of Physics, College Station, TX (United States); Zhang, R. [GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ (United States); Bowman, K.P. [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States)


    Global atmospheric transport in a climate subject to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is studied by using climatological Green's functions of the mass conservation equation for a conserved, passive tracer. Two sets of Green's functions for the perturbed climate and for the present climate are evaluated from 11-year atmospheric trajectory calculations, based on 3-D winds simulated by GFDL's newly developed global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CM2.1). The Green's function analysis reveals pronounced effects of the climate change on the atmospheric transport, including seasonally modified Hadley circulation with a stronger Northern Hemisphere cell in DJF and a weaker Southern Hemisphere cell in JJA. A weakened THC is also found to enhance mass exchange rates through mixing barriers between the tropics and the two extratropical zones. The response in the tropics is not zonally symmetric. The 3-D Green's function analysis of the effect of THC weakening on transport in the tropical Pacific shows a modified Hadley cell in the eastern Pacific, confirming the results of our previous studies, and a weakening (strengthening) of the upward and eastward motion to the south (north) of the Equator in the western Pacific in the perturbed climate as compared to the present climate. (orig.)

  3. How does the latitudinal dependency of the cloud structure change Venus' atmosphere's general circulation? (United States)

    Garate-Lopez, I.; Lebonnois, S.


    Differently to the previous simulation of the LMD/IPSL Venus GCM, we now take into account the latitudinal variation of the clouds' structure and we analyze its impacts on the general circulation of Venus atmosphere. Both solar heating rates and the infrared net-exchange rate matrix used in the radiative transfer code have been modified in that sense. Additional tuning below the clouds has also been performed. The current results show a better agreement with observations in both mean zonal wind and average temperature fields. Moreover, taking into account the latitudinal variation of the clouds has brought along with it the formation of a well defined cold collar poleward of 60º at cloud level. Besides, we have reanalyzed the wave activity present in Venus atmosphere and found new baroclinic mid-latitude waves. However, we do not obtain the gravity waves present in the deep atmosphere in the previous model.

  4. Acute effects of a large bolide impact simulated by a global atmospheric circulation model (United States)

    Thompson, Starley L.; Crutzen, P. J.


    The goal is to use a global three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model developed for studies of atmospheric effects of nuclear war to examine the time evolution of atmospheric effects from a large bolide impact. The model allows for dust and NOx injection, atmospheric transport by winds, removal by precipitation, radiative transfer effects, stratospheric ozone chemistry, and nitric acid formation and deposition on a simulated Earth having realistic geography. Researchers assume a modest 2 km-diameter impactor of the type that could have formed the 32 km-diameter impact structure found near Manson, Iowa and dated at roughly 66 Ma. Such an impact would have created on the order of 5 x 10 to the 10th power metric tons of atmospheric dust (about 0.01 g cm(-2) if spread globally) and 1 x 10 to the 37th power molecules of NO, or two orders of magnitude more stratospheric NO than might be produced in a large nuclear war. Researchers ignore potential injections of CO2 and wildfire smoke, and assume the direct heating of the atmosphere by impact ejecta on a regional scale is not large compared to absorption of solar energy by dust. Researchers assume an impact site at 45 N in the interior of present day North America.

  5. Explaining the mechanisms through which regional atmospheric circulation variability drives summer temperatures and glacial melt in western High Mountain Asia (HMA) (United States)

    Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Li, Xiaofeng; Pritchard, David


    Comprehension of mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation influences sub-regional temperature and water resources variability in high-elevation mountainous catchments is of great scientific urgency due to the dependency of large downstream populations on the river flows these basins provide. In this work we quantify a regional atmospheric pattern, the Karakoram Zonal Shear (KZS), with a very pronounced annual cycle which we standardise into a dimensionless (seasonal) circulation metric the Karakoram Zonal Index (KZI). Going beyond previous regional circulation metrics such as the "middle-upper tropospheric temperature index" (MUTTI) or the Webster and Yang Monsoonal Index (WYMI) which have focused solely on the South Asian Summer Monsoon (June to September) season, the KZS/KZI provides an indicator which captures the influence and interactions of the westerly jet throughout the entire annual cycle. Use of the KZS and KZI have led us to identify a further regional atmospheric system, the Karakoram Vortex, which propagates "warm high" (anticyclonic postitive temperature anomaly) and "cold low" (cyclonic negative temperature anomaly) patterns across a very broad swath of Central and South Asia in winter but over a much more constrained area of western HMA in summer. The KV exerts this temperature influence through a combination of adiabatic effects and large-scale advection. Quantify KV influence, the KZI shows strong and statistically significantly near surface (2m) air temperatures both across western HMA both as observed through local meteorological stations and as estimated by an ensemble of global meteorological reanalyses. We show that this strong influence on temperature translates to important consequences for meltwater generation from highly glaciated Indus river tributaries which is logical given that previous studies have established the role of air temperature in modulating glacially-derived river flows in western HMA. By improving the understanding of

  6. The influence of atmospheric circulation on plant phenological phases in central and eastern Europe (United States)

    Aasa, Anto; Jaagus, Jaak; Ahas, Rein; Sepp, Mait


    The objective of this study is to analyse relationships between the start dates of spring phenological phases and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The timing of phenological phases in temperate zones is driven by temperature, and temperature regime is generally determined by atmospheric circulation. The database analysed consists of the first dates of flowering of coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.), of birch (Betula pendula Roth.) leaf unfolding and of flowering of lilac (Syringa vulgaris L.); the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic oscillation (AO) indices, frequencies of the circulation forms classified by Vangengeim and Girs, and of the groups of Grosswetterlagen presented by Hess and Brezowsky. The study area covers central and eastern Europe, and the period considered is 1951-98.The results show that the influence of the westerly airflow is more pronounced in the winter half-year, and weakens and even disappears as spring advances. Phases have the highest correlation with NAO and AO indices during winter (December-March) and the first three months of the year (January-March), which have correlations stronger than -0.5 in the Baltic Sea region. Among the phenological phases, flowering of coltsfoot is the most strongly correlated with the NAO and AO indices, followed by leafing of birch and flowering of lilac. Airflow from the north and from the east has a greater influence in springtime, particularly in the northernmost and southernmost regions of the study area.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Kononova


    Full Text Available Conditions of formation and development of landslides and debris flows in the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus and on Sakhalin Island were considered. They are formed under the influence of heavy rainfall under the influence of the Mediterranean cyclones outlet in the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus and of the Pacific cyclones outlet on Sakhalin Island in the same macro-circulation processes. Activity of landslides and debris flows in these regions has been shown to be connected with certain types of atmospheric circulation during the XX—the beginning of the XXI century. Based on these results, possible increase in the activity of landslides and debris flows, in the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus and Sakhalin Island, is suggested.

  8. Theoretical and experimental design studies for the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment (United States)

    Fowlis, W. W.; Hathaway, D. H.; Miller, T. L.; Roberts, G. O.; Kopecky, K. J.


    The major criterion for the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment (AGCE) design is that it be possible to realize strong baroclinic instability in the spherical configuration chosen. A configuration was selected in which a hemispherical shell of fluid is subjected to latitudinal temperature gradients on its spherical boundaries and the latitudinal boundaries are insulators. Work in the laboratory with a cylindrical version of this configuration revealed more instabilities than baroclinic instability. Since researchers fully expect these additional instabilities to appear in the spherical configuration also, they decided to continue the laboratory cylindrical annulus studies. Four flow regimes were identified: an axisymmetric Hadley circulation, boundary layer convection, baroclinic waves and deep thermal convection. Regime diagrams were prepared.

  9. The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. S. R. Pausata


    Full Text Available The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr before present was a period of low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, when vast ice sheets covered large parts of North America and Europe. Paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling studies suggest that the atmospheric circulation was substantially altered compared to today, both in terms of its mean state and its variability. Here we present a suite of coupled model simulations designed to investigate both the separate and combined influences of the main LGM boundary condition changes (greenhouse gases, ice sheet topography and ice sheet albedo on the mean state and variability of the atmospheric circulation as represented by sea level pressure (SLP and 200-hPa zonal wind in the North Atlantic sector. We find that ice sheet topography accounts for most of the simulated changes during the LGM. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet albedo affect the SLP gradient in the North Atlantic, but the overall placement of high and low pressure centers is controlled by topography. Additional analysis shows that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and sea ice edge position do not substantially influence the pattern of the climatological-mean SLP field, SLP variability or the position of the North Atlantic jet in the LGM.

  10. 2012/13 abnormal cold winter in Japan associated with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation and Local Sea Surface Temperature over the Sea of Japan (United States)

    Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.


    On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For

  11. Venus atmosphere simulated by a high-resolution general circulation model (United States)

    Sugimoto, Norihiko


    An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for Venus on the basis of AFES (AGCM For the Earth Simulator) have been developed (e.g., Sugimoto et al., 2014a) and a very high-resolution simulation is performed. The highest resolution of the model is T319L120; 960 times 480 horizontal grids (grid intervals are about 40 km) with 120 vertical layers (layer intervals are about 1 km). In the model, the atmosphere is dry and forced by the solar heating with the diurnal and semi-diurnal components. The infrared radiative process is simplified by adopting Newtonian cooling approximation. The temperature is relaxed to a prescribed horizontally uniform temperature distribution, in which a layer with almost neutral static stability observed in the Venus atmosphere presents. A fast zonal wind in a solid-body rotation is given as the initial state. Starting from this idealized superrotation, the model atmosphere reaches a quasi-equilibrium state within 1 Earth year and this state is stably maintained for more than 10 Earth years. The zonal-mean zonal flow with weak midlatitude jets has almost constant velocity of 120 m/s in latitudes between 45°S and 45°N at the cloud top levels, which agrees very well with observations. In the cloud layer, baroclinic waves develop continuously at midlatitudes and generate Rossby-type waves at the cloud top (Sugimoto et al., 2014b). At the polar region, warm polar vortex zonally surrounded by a cold latitude band (cold collar) is well reproduced (Ando et al., 2016). As for horizontal kinetic energy spectra, divergent component is broadly (k>10) larger than rotational component compared with that on Earth (Kashimura et al., in preparation). Finally, recent results for thermal tides and small-scale waves will be shown in the presentation. Sugimoto, N. et al. (2014a), Baroclinic modes in the Venus atmosphere simulated by GCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, Vol. 119, p1950-1968. Sugimoto, N. et al. (2014b), Waves in a Venus general

  12. Snow cover setting-up dates in the north of Eurasia: relations and feedback to the macro-scale atmospheric circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Popova


    Full Text Available Variations of snow cover onset data in 1950–2008 based on daily snow depth data collected at first-order meteorological stations of the former USSR compiled at the Russia Institute of Hydrometeorological Information are analyzed in order to reveal climatic norms, relations with macro-scale atmospheric circulation and influence of snow cover anomalies on strengthening/weakening of westerly basing on observational data and results of simulation using model Planet Simulator, as well. Patterns of mean snow cover setting-up data and their correlation with temperature of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical land presented in Fig. 1 show that the most sensible changes observed in last decade are caused by temperature trend since 1990th. For the most portion of the studied territory variations of snow cover setting-up data may be explained by the circulation indices in the terms of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns: Scand, EA–WR, WP and NAO (Fig. 2. Role of the Scand and EA–WR (see Fig. 2, а, в, г is recognized as the most significant.Changes of snow cover extent calculated on the base of snow cover onset data over the Russia territory, and its western and eastern parts as well, for the second decade of October (Fig. 3 demonstrate significant difference in variability between eastern and western regions. Eastern part of territory essentially differs by lower both year-to-year and long-term variations in the contrast to the western part, characterized by high variance including long-term tendencies: increase in 1950–70th and decrease in 1970–80 and during last six years. Nevertheless relations between snow cover anomalies and Arctic Oscillation (AO index appear to be significant exceptionally for the eastern part of the territory. In the same time negative linear correlation revealed between snow extent and AO index changes during 1950–2008 from statistically insignificant values (in 1950–70 and 1996–2008 to coefficient

  13. Relay transport of aerosols to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by multi-scale atmospheric circulations (United States)

    Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Liu, Huan; Zhang, Gen; Yan, Yan; He, Jing


    The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region experiences heavy aerosol pollution, which is found to have close relationships with the synoptic- and local-scale atmospheric circulations. However, how and to what extent these multi-scale circulations interplay to modulate aerosol transport have not been fully understood. To this end, this study comprehensively investigated the impacts of these circulations on aerosol transport in BTH by focusing on an episode occurred on 1 June 2013 through combining both observations and three-dimensional simulations. It was found that during this episode, the Bohai Sea acted as a transfer station, and the high-pressure system over the Yellow Sea and sea-breeze in BTH took turns to affect the transport of aerosols. In the morning, influenced by the high-pressure system, lots of aerosols emitted from Shandong and Jiangsu provinces were first transported to the Bohai Sea. After then, these aerosols were brought to the BTH region in the afternoon through the inland penetration of sea-breeze, significantly exacerbating the air quality in BTH. The inland penetration of sea-breeze could be identified by the sharp changes in ground-based observed temperature, humidity, and wind when the sea-breeze front (SBF) passed by. Combining observations with model outputs, the SBF was found to be able to advance inland more than ∼150 km till reaching Beijing. This study has important implications for better understanding the aerosol transport in BTH, and improving the forecast of such aerosol pollution.

  14. A system of conservative regridding for ice–atmosphere coupling in a General Circulation Model (GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fischer


    Full Text Available The method of elevation classes, in which the ice surface model is run at multiple elevations within each grid cell, has proven to be a useful way for a low-resolution atmosphere inside a general circulation model (GCM to produce high-resolution downscaled surface mass balance fields for use in one-way studies coupling atmospheres and ice flow models. Past uses of elevation classes have failed to conserve mass and energy because the transformation used to regrid to the atmosphere was inconsistent with the transformation used to downscale to the ice model. This would cause problems for two-way coupling. A strategy that resolves this conservation issue has been designed and is presented here. The approach identifies three grids between which data must be regridded and five transformations between those grids required by a typical coupled atmosphere–ice flow model. This paper develops a theoretical framework for the problem and shows how each of these transformations may be achieved in a consistent, conservative manner. These transformations are implemented in Glint2, a library used to couple atmosphere models with ice models. Source code and documentation are available for download. Confounding real-world issues are discussed, including the use of projections for ice modeling, how to handle dynamically changing ice geometry, and modifications required for finite element ice models.

  15. Interannual modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grainger, S; Frederiksen, C S [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia); Zheng, X, E-mail: [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing (China)


    The atmospheric circulation acts as a bridge between large-scale sources of climate variability, and climate variability on regional scales. Here a statistical method is applied to monthly mean Southern Hemisphere 500hPa geopotential height to separate the interannual variability of the seasonal mean into intraseasonal and slowly varying (time scales of a season or longer) components. Intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are estimated from realisations of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) twentieth century coupled climate simulation (20c3m) and are evaluated against those estimated from reanalysis data. The intraseasonal modes of variability are generally well reproduced across all CMIP3 20c3m models for both Southern Hemisphere summer and winter. The slow modes are in general less well reproduced than the intraseasonal modes, and there are larger differences between realisations than for the intraseasonal modes. New diagnostics are proposed to evaluate model variability. It is found that differences between realisations from each model are generally less than inter-model differences. Differences between model-mean diagnostics are found. The results obtained are applicable to assessing the reliability of changes in atmospheric circulation variability in CMIP3 models and for their suitability for further studies of regional climate variability.

  16. The influence of land warming on precipitation and atmospheric circulation change (United States)

    Chadwick, Robin; Ackerley, Duncan; Dommenget, Dietmar


    One robust aspect of climate change is that the land surface warms more than the ocean surface, and this is expected to influence precipitation and the atmospheric circulation. A new set of experiments are described, where the effect of land surface temperature change on precipitation and circulation change is isolated, and compared with the effects of sea-surface temperature (SST) change, direct CO2 radiative forcing, and the plant physiological effect. Land warming generally leads to enhanced low-level convergence and precipitation over land, while SST warming leads to reduced precipitation over land and increases over the oceans. However the combination of the two effects is strongly nonlinear. Direct radiative forcing drives precipitation change both through heating of the atmosphere, and through land warming, and this is particularly important in some monsoon regions. The plant physiological effect directly drives large reductions in transpiration and precipitation over tropical forest regions, as stomata close in response to elevated CO2 concentrations. However the plant effect also produces significant land warming, which leads to increased convergence and precipitation in some tropical forest regions. Therefore the overall result of the plant effect in each region depends on the balance between these two mechanisms.

  17. Development of the GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model: evolution from MERRA to MERRA2 (United States)

    Molod, A.; Takacs, L.; Suarez, M.; Bacmeister, J.


    The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System-5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO MERRA2 reanalysis, global mesoscale simulations at 10 km resolution through 1.5 km resolution, the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of resolution-aware parameters related to the moist physics was shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.

  18. Atmospheric forcing of sea ice anomalies in the Ross Sea Polynya region (United States)

    Dale, Ethan; McDonald, Adrian; Rack, Wolfgang


    Despite warming trends in global temperatures, sea ice extent in the southern hemisphere has shown an increasing trend over recent decades. Wind-driven sea ice export from coastal polynyas is an important source of sea ice production. Areas of major polynyas in the Ross Sea, the region with largest increase in sea ice extent, have been suggested to produce the vast amount of the sea ice in the region. We investigate the impacts of strong wind events on polynyas and the subsequent sea ice production. We utilize Bootstrap sea ice concentration (SIC) measurements derived from satellite based, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) brightness temperature images. These are compared with surface wind measurements made by automatic weather stations of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Meteorology Program. Our analysis focusses on the winter period defined as 1st April to 1st November in this study. Wind data was used to classify each day into characteristic regimes based on the change of wind speed. For each regime, a composite of SIC anomaly was formed for the Ross Sea region. We found that persistent weak winds near the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf are generally associated with positive SIC anomalies in the Ross Sea polynya area (RSP). Conversely we found negative SIC anomalies in this area during persistent strong winds. By analyzing sea ice motion vectors derived from SSM/I brightness temperatures, we find significant sea ice motion anomalies throughout the Ross Sea during strong wind events. These anomalies persist for several days after the strong wing event. Strong, negative correlations are found between SIC within the RSP and wind speed indicating that strong winds cause significant advection of sea ice in the RSP. This rapid decrease in SIC is followed by a more gradual recovery in SIC. This increase occurs on a time scale greater than the average persistence of strong wind events and the resulting Sea ice motion anomalies, highlighting the production

  19. Climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns of Arabian dust in western Iran. (United States)

    Najafi, Mohammad Saeed; Sarraf, B S; Zarrin, A; Rasouli, A A


    Being in vicinity of vast deserts, the west and southwest of Iran are characterized by high levels of dust events, which have adverse consequences on human health, ecosystems, and environment. Using ground based dataset of dust events in western Iran and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the atmospheric circulation patterns of dust events in the Arabian region and west of Iran are identified. The atmospheric circulation patterns which lead to dust events in the Arabian region and western Iran were classified into two main categories: the Shamal dust events that occurs in warm period of year and the frontal dust events as cold period pattern. In frontal dust events, the western trough or blocking pattern at mid-level leads to frontogenesis, instability, and air uplift at lower levels of troposphere in the southwest of Asia. Non-frontal is other pattern of dust event in the cold period and dust generation are due to the regional circulation systems at the lower level of troposphere. In Shamal wind pattern, the Saudi Arabian anticyclone, Turkmenistan anticyclone, and Zagros thermal low play the key roles in formation of this pattern. Summer and transitional patterns are two sub-categories of summer Shamal wind pattern. In summer trough pattern, the mid-tropospheric trough leads to intensify the surface thermal systems in the Middle East and causes instability and rising of wind speed in the region. In synthetic pattern of Shamal wind and summer trough, dust is created by the impact of a trough in mid-levels of troposphere as well as existing the mentioned regional systems which are contributed in formation of summer Shamal wind pattern.

  20. Synoptic and climatological analysis of atmospheric circulation impacts on particulate matter pollution in Shanghai, China (United States)

    Liao, Z.; Fan, S.


    This study investigated the particulate matter characteristics within different circulation types (CTs) in the megacity of Shanghai during the period 2001-2015, and provided a quantitative evaluation of atmospheric circulation influences on PM10 pollution across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from local to region and daily to interannual. Ten CTs were identified over the Asian-Pacific region by objective Lamb Weather Type approach and each resulting CT was characterized with distinct local meteorology and air mass source. The PM10 loadings in the CTs associated with continental westerly flow were significant higher than that in the CTs linked to marine easterly air masses. Regional backgrounds that transported by the synoptic flows were more responsible for the distinct PM10 levels in different CTs. The locally-produced PM10 generally stabilized in range of 20-25 μg m-3, but enhanced to 41.2 μg m-3 in case of anticyclone type. There were distinct PM10 trends in different CTs (ranged from -3.74 to -0.28 μg m-3 yr-1), indicating the different background trends. Overall, the PM10 concentrations have decreased (-2.33 μg m-3 yr-1) in the studied period and the estimated locally-produced trend (-0.79 μg m-3 yr-1) accounted for 33.9% of overall downward trend. The occurrence frequency presented an increase (0.15 % yr-1) for anticyclone type, but a decrease (-0.10 % yr-1) for the type N associated with invasion of cold air. The 15-yr frequency change of atmospheric circulation induced an increase in PM­10 level (0.17 μg m-3) in Shanghai. On the contrary, controls on the pollutant emission had always positive effects and hence should be always encouraged.

  1. Middle-atmospheric Ozone and HCl anomalies during the polar stratospheric warming 2010 observed by JEM/SMILES (United States)

    Esmaeili Mahani, M.; Kreyling, D.; Sagawa, H.; Murata, I.; Kasaba, Y.; Kasai, Y.


    In this study we focused on investigating ozone and HCl variations and anomalies in the middle atmosphere due to the Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) event of Arctic winter 2009-2010 using JEM/SMILES data. HCl anomalies in evolution of a SSW have been studied for the first time. SSWs are dramatic events in the winter stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere where the deceleration or reversal of the eastward winds is accompanied by an increase of temperature by several tens of degrees. The main cause of this phenomenon is known to be the interaction of zonal mean flow with upward propagating transient planetary waves from the troposphere in mid-winter leading to a vortex displacement or break down. SSWs are dynamical disturbances found to affect both dynamics and chemical compositions of the middle atmosphere still having several different atmospheric features and behaviors to be studied. The Superconducting sub-Millimeter Limb Emission Sounder (SMILES) is a highly sensitive radiometer to observe various atmospheric compositions from upper troposphere to the mesosphere. SMILES was developed by the Japanese Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Institute of Communications and Technology (NICT) located at the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) on board the International Space Station (ISS). From October 2009 to April 2010, SMILES has accurately measured the vertical distributions and the diurnal variations of for example ozone and HCl with the accuracy of less than 8% and 5% in the middle atmosphere respectively. By using SMILES data the SSW event of 2010 was confirmed on 25-January categorized as a major, vortex displacement warming. After the SSW, ozone values enhanced up to 15-20% in mid-stratosphere due to the meridional transport from lower latitudes and weakening of the polar vortex. The mesospheric ozone response will also be demonstrated and discussed. For HCl, the total increase of 10% in Upper Stratosphere Lower Mesosphere (USLM) before the

  2. Simple solutions for the summer shallow atmospheric circulation over North Africa (United States)

    Dalu, Giovanni A.; Gaetani, Marco; Lavaysse, Christophe; Flamant, Cyrille; Evan, Amato T.; Baldi, Marina


    In this study, we present a model analysis of the summer shallow atmospheric circulation over North Africa driven by desert heat lows, performed by using a two layer Matsuno-Gill model system, where a lower Rayleigh frictional layer is coupled with an upper almost frictionless layer. We analyse the early summer circulation, when a single heat low spans from the west coast of Africa to the Arabian Peninsula, and the full summer circulation, when two separate heat lows are observed, one over western Sahara (the Saharan heat low, SHL) and one over the Arabian Peninsula (the Arabian heat low, AHL). In early summer, the SHL drives a lower layer cyclone and an upper layer anticyclone, with a jet on its southern edge (the African easterly jet, AEJ). The lower layer depression and its related cyclone are almost in-phase with the diabatic forcing, while the upper high pressure (West African high, WAH) and its related anticyclone are almost in quadrature with it. This phase shift between lower and upper dynamics is entirely due to the frictional difference between the two layers. The full summer shallow circulation over North Africa is characterised by two Walker-like cells, one generated by the AHL and the other generated by the SHL. These cells partially overlap resulting in a strengthening of the WAH and the AEJ. The model shows that the AEJ originates over the Arabian Peninsula, crosses the North Africa, and, invigorated by the SHL, crosses the Tropical Atlantic. The addition of a heating source in the upper layer, associated with the Saharan airborne dust, reveals a further strengthening of the AEJ.

  3. Decadal changes in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation patterns recorded by sand spits since 1800 CE (United States)

    Poirier, Clément; Tessier, Bernadette; Chaumillon, Éric; Bertin, Xavier; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Mouazé, Dominique; Noël, Suzanne; Weill, Pierre; Wöppelmann, Guy


    Present-day coastal barriers represent around 15% of the world's oceanic shorelines, and play an important role as early warning indicators of environmental change. Among them, wave-dominated barriers are dynamic landforms that tend to migrate landward in response to storms and sea-level change. High rates of sediment supply can locally offset the global retrogradation trend, providing valuable records of past environmental change occurring on transgressive coasts. However, geochronological control limits the temporal resolution of such records to millennial or centennial timescales, and the decadal or even faster response of wave-built barriers to historical climate changes is therefore poorly understood. In this study, we show that shoreline dynamics of sand spits reconstructed from old cartographic documents has been synchronous on both margins of the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1800 CE. Spit growth accelerated drastically during three periods lasting about 15 years, characterised by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative East Atlantic-West Russia (EA-WR) atmospheric circulation patterns. These changes are in phase with periods of increased volcanic activity. We use a high-resolution wave hindcast (1948-2014 CE) in a reference area to confirm the association between NAO and EA-WR as a proxy for offshore and nearshore wave height and for associated longshore sediment transport (LST) involved in spit growth. A 24-month lagged correlation between sediment transport and volcanic aerosol optical thickness (concentration of ashes in the atmosphere) is observed, suggesting that spit shoreline dynamics at the decadal timescale is partially forced by external climate drivers via cascading effects on atmospheric circulation patterns and wave climate. Our results imply that NAO variability alone is not sufficient to understand the evolution of wave-built coastal environments. The associated sediment record can be used to reconstruct multi

  4. Plutonium isotopes in the atmosphere of Central Europe: Isotopic composition and time evolution vs. circulation factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kierepko, Renata, E-mail: [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Mietelski, Jerzy W. [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Ustrnul, Zbigniew [Jagiellonian University, Krakow (Poland); Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, Krakow (Poland); Anczkiewicz, Robert [Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow (Poland); Wershofen, Herbert [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany); Holgye, Zoltan [National Radiation Protection Institute, Prague (Czech Republic); Kapała, Jacek [Medical University of Bialystok (Poland); Isajenko, Krzysztof [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw (Poland)


    This paper reports evidence of Pu isotopes in the lower part of the troposphere of Central Europe. The data were obtained based on atmospheric aerosol fraction samples collected from four places in three countries (participating in the informal European network known as the Ring of Five (Ro5)) forming a cell with a surface area of about 200,000 km{sup 2}. We compared our original data sets from Krakow (Poland, 1990–2007) and Bialystok (Poland, 1991–2007) with the results from two other locations, Prague (Czech Republic; 1997–2004) and Braunschweig (Germany; 1990–2003) to find time evolution of the Pu isotopes. The levels of the activity concentration for {sup 238}Pu and for {sup (239} {sup +} {sup 240)}Pu were estimated to be a few and some tens of nBq m{sup −} {sup 3}, respectively. However, we also noted some results were much higher (even about 70 times higher) than the average concentration of {sup 238}Pu in the atmosphere. The achieved complex data sets were used to test a new approach to the problem of solving mixing isotopic traces from various sources (here up to three) in one sample. Results of our model, supported by mesoscale atmospheric circulation parameters, suggest that Pu from nuclear weapon accidents or tests and nuclear burnt-up fuel are present in the air. - Highlights: • Evidence of Pu isotopes in the lower part of the troposphere of Central Europe • The effective annual doses associated with Pu inhalation • New approach to the problem of solving mixed Pu origins in one sample (3SM) • Relationship between Pu isotopes activity concentration and circulation factors.

  5. Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data (United States)

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan


    The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for

  6. Variability in the general atmospheric circulation, precipitation and runoff in Eastern Europe (United States)

    Ivanov, Sergiy; Svetlitchnyi, Alexander; Matygin, Alexander; Ivus, Galina; Palamarchuk, Julia


    Using different databases, changes of atmospheric circulation, regional precipitation, and runoff in Eastern Europe are analysed. The focus of the study is to search relationships between large-scale atmospheric flow characteristics and wet days as well as subsequent runoff in major rivers of the region. Unfortunately, various precipitation datasets developed in the last decades show significant differences in spatial and temporal distribution of available information that is difficult to reconcile. Nevertheless, results indicate that regional precipitation changes can be attributed to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. In particular, the zonal shift in storm tracks and associated atmospheric water vapor transfer changes cause a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of Eastern Europe, in particular, over the Danube River Basin. On the other hand, precipitation over the northern half of Eastern Europe increases, with largest increases over the Eastern European Plateau and the Dnepr River Basin. Thermodynamic changes also contribute to precipitation changes, mainly due to an increase in atmospheric precipitable water in the cold season (and, thus, increase in snowfall) in response to rising temperatures. Runoff of the major rivers in Eastern Europe correlates with precipitation over their basins less than it may be expected. Moreover, for the last decades the opposite tendencies in precipitation and runoff for Danube have been observed. This can be explained by the anthropogenic impact on the runoff for which the dynamics do not coincide with the tendencies in the natural factors responsible for runoff formation. In 1990, the fresh water withdrawal in the Ukraine was around 30 km3 that is comparable to local runoff resources of the nation. At the same time, the water consumption was around 11 km3. For socio-economic reasons, in the 1990s the water withdrawal and consumption sharply decreased when their minimums were reached only in 2004, being

  7. Martian atmospheric gravity waves simulated by a high-resolution general circulation model (United States)

    Kuroda, Takeshi; Yiǧit, Erdal; Medvedev, Alexander S.; Hartogh, Paul


    Gravity waves (GWs) significantly affect temperature and wind fields in the Martian middle and upper atmosphere. They are also one of the observational targets of the MAVEN mission. We report on the first simulations with a high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) and present a global distributions of small-scale GWs in the Martian atmosphere. The simulated GW-induced temperature variances are in a good agreement with available radio occultation data in the lower atmosphere between 10 and 30 km. For the northern winter solstice, the model reveals a latitudinal asymmetry with stronger wave generation in the winter hemisphere and two distinctive sources of GWs: mountainous regions and the meandering winter polar jet. Orographic GWs are filtered upon propagating upward, and the mesosphere is primarily dominated by harmonics with faster horizontal phase velocities. Wave fluxes are directed mainly against the local wind. GW dissipation in the upper mesosphere generates a body force per unit mass of tens of m s^{-1} per Martian solar day (sol^{-1}), which tends to close the simulated jets. The results represent a realistic surrogate for missing observations, which can be used for constraining GW parameterizations and validating GCMs.

  8. AFES (Atmospheric general circulation model For the Earth Simulator) simulation for Venus (United States)

    Sugimoto, Norihiko; Imamura, Takeshi; Takagi, Masahiro; Matsuda, Yoshihisa; Ando, Hiroki; Kashimura, Hiroki; Ohfuchi, Wataru; Enomoto, Takeshi; Takahashi, Yoshiyuki O.; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki

    We have developed an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for Venus on the basis of AFES (AGCM For the Earth Simulator) and performed a very high-resolution simulation. The highest model resolution is T159L120; 0.75 degree times 0.75 degree latitude and longitude grids with 120 vertical layers (Δz is about 1 km). In the model, the atmosphere is dry and forced by the solar heating with the diurnal change and Newtonian cooling that relaxes the temperature to the zonally uniform basic temperature which has a virtual static stability of Venus with almost neutral layers. A fast zonal wind in a solid-body rotation is given as the initial state. In this paper, we will report several results newly obtained by this model. 1. Baroclinic instability appears in the cloud layer with small static stability and large vertical shear of the zonal flow. 2. Polar vortex is self-consistently generated by barotropic instability whose horizontal and vertical structure is consistent with the previous observations. 3. Kinetic energy spectra decreases by -5/3 power law in a range from wavenumber 4 to 45, whose range is different from that on Earth. Finally, we are now constructing the accurate radiation model of the Venus atmosphere.

  9. A global map of the atmospheric circulation and thermal structure for an ultrahot exoplanet (United States)

    Evans, Tom; Sing, David; Tiffany, Kataria; Nikolov, Nikolay; Deming, Drake; Lewis, Nikole; Wakeford, Hannah; Marley, Mark; Gibson, Neale; Spake, Jessica; Drummond, Benjamin; Barstow, Joanna; Henry, Gregory; Mayne, Nathan


    WASP-121b is one of the standout exoplanets available for atmospheric characterization, both in transmission and emission, due to its large radius (1.8 Jupiter radii), high temperature ( 2700K), and bright host star (H=9.4mag). Recent HST/WFC3 eclipse observations made by our group have revealed the 1.4 micron water band in emission on the dayside hemisphere of WASP-121b, implying that the atmosphere has a thermal inversion. This new development, combined with the favorable system properties, makes it clear that WASP-121b is an ideal target to empirically probe the variation of thermal inversions with longitude. To do this, we propose phase curve measurements of WASP-121b over a full orbital period in each of the Spitzer/IRAC channels. Given the measurement precision demonstrated by our previous IRAC observations of WASP-121b, we anticipate this dataset will be one of the highest signal-to-noise phase curve measurements for an exoplanet to date. It will provide a powerful complement to full-orbit phase curves that have recently been confirmed for shorter wavelengths, to be made by HST/WFC3 and JWST/NIRISS. Combined, this Spitzer+HST+JWST phase curve dataset will produce an unprecedented map of the longitudinally-resolved thermal structure, chemical composition and global circulation of an exoplanet atmosphere, and, in particular, give crucial new insight into the long-standing mystery of thermal inversions in strongly-irradiated gas giants.

  10. Is extreme Arctic sea ice anomaly in 2007 a key contributor to severe January 2008 snowstorm in China?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Na, Liu; Jiping, Liu; Zhanhai, Zhang; Hongxia, Chen; Mirong, Song


    We conduct numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model to answer the question whether the extreme Arctic sea ice anomaly in 2007 contributed to the severe January 2008 snowstorm in China...

  11. Variability in winter mass balance of Northern Hemisphere glaciers and relations with atmospheric circulation (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Fountain, A.G.; Dyurgerov, M.


    An analysis of variability in the winter mass balance (WMB) of 22 glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere indicates two primary modes of variability that explain 46% of the variability among all glaciers. The first mode of variability characterizes WMB variability in Northern and Central Europe and the second mode primarily represents WMB variability in northwestern North America, but also is related to variability in WMB of one glacier in Europe and one in Central Asia. These two modes of WMB variability are explained by variations in mesoscale atmospheric circulation which are driving forces of variations in surface temperature and precipitation. The first mode is highly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation Index, whereas the second mode is highly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index. In addition, the second mode of WMB variability is highly correlated with variability in global winter temperatures. This result suggests some connection between global temperature trends and WMB for some glaciers.

  12. Katabatic winds over Antarctica and the relationship with Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation variability (United States)

    Spangehl, T.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Speth, P.


    Katabatic winds are one of the outstanding features of the Antarctic boundary layer. Extreme katabatic winds can be found in a number of coastal regions where orographically induced confluence leads to further acceleration of cold air masses descending from the inner parts of the Antarctic continent. On the hemispheric scale they play an important role in maintaining the balance of mass, energy and angular momentum. Automatic weather station data and manned station data of wind speed and direction is used to assess katabatic wind activity. An objective method was developed to construct a katabatic outflow index, named KAI (from German: Katabatischer Abfluss Index). By the means of the KAI identification of katabatic outflow events was performed for 12 different regions around Antarctica. One of the main problems was to distinguish between katabatic forcing and wind regimes of pure synoptic scale origin. This will be discussed regarding the strength of the continental surface inversion. Cyclonic activity is assessed by an objective tracking method. It is investigated in how far the occurrence of regional katabatic outflow events depends on cyclones. It is especially examined in how far cyclones can favour katabatic outflow on the one hand and if cyclonic development can be modified by katabatic outflow on the other hand. Additionally, ECMWF-analysis data is used to construct a continental scale outflow index by means of mass flux. So katabatic wind activity on different spatial and temporal scales is investigated upon its relationship with extratropical and tropical atmospheric circulation variability as described by several Southern Hemisphere circulation indices. For example, it is investigated in how far katabatic wind activity can be related to the polar vortex variability in strength (Antarctic oscillation index) and eccentricity (trans polar index). Finally, process studies are performed for selected katabatic outflow events to gain a better understanding of

  13. A passive dust experiment toward a high resolution simulation of the Martian atmospheric general circulation (United States)

    Takahashi, Y. O.; Hayashi, Y.-Y.; Odaka, M.; Ohfuchi, W.


    A high resolution simulation of the Martian atmosphere is performed to examine the appearance of small to medium scale atmospheric disturbances and their effects on the dust lifting and transfer processes. The dynamical core of the Martian GCM used in this study is that of the terrestrial GCM, AFES (Atmospheric GCM for Earth Simulator, Ohfuchi et al., Journal of the Earth Simulator, 1, 8, 2004). The physical processes of the present model are those developed by our group so far (the earlier version of our Martian GCM and its physical processes are described in Takahashi et al., JGR, 108, 5013, doi:10.1029/2001JE001638, 2003). A test simulation is performed with a relatively low resolution of T79L24, which is equivalent to about 90 km grid size on Mars. Moreover, this simulation is a "passive dust experiment" in the sense that dust is assumed to be radiatively inert. Atmospheric heating due to dust absorption is given separately from a zonally uniform distribution of dust with the latitudinal profile following the MGS-TES observation. The result of test simulation shows clear frontal structures in the baroclinic zones at spring and fall seasons. In addition, medium scale vortex generations are observed in the lees of high mountains in the northern hemisphere. In this test simulation, dust lifting events occur only in some limited areas and limited seasonal dates. Major dust lifting regions include the vicinity of polar caps, the eastern flank of Tharsis plateau, the southern low latitude belt, and the Hellas basin. These regions roughly coincide with those of dust storms observed by the MGS and dust lifting regions reported by earlier GCM studies. It is suggested that the strong wind, which is associated with the fronts and the local circulations induced by topographic variation, plays an important role to lift dust and generate dust storms.

  14. The Influence of Nitrogen Dioxide on Arrhythmias in Spain and Its Relationship with Atmospheric Circulation. (United States)

    Santurtún, Ana; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Villar, Alejandro; Riancho, José A; Zarrabeitia, María T


    Epidemiological studies suggest that increased ambient NO2 concentrations are associated with cardiovascular disease. However, none of them have examined the association between ambient air pollution and cardiac arrhythmias in the general population in Spain. This paper assesses the short-term association between the aforementioned air pollutant and hospital admissions for arrhythmia in nine different regions of Spain during a 6-year period (2005-2010), and the possible season-specific effects of the compound on this pathology, by performing a time-series analysis based on Poisson regression models. The results show statistically significant positive relationship increases between arrhythmia admissions and increments in NO2 concentration during the whole year, most notably in wintertime. Moreover, while trying to establish a threshold for NO2 concentration above which the incidence of arrhythmia episodes increases significantly, this study reveals that hospital admissions increased linearly in response to an increase in as we move to higher NO2 concentration levels. Finally, an analysis of NO2 concentrations and their relationship with atmospheric circulation is performed, showing higher values of NO2 under anticyclonic conditions during winter that could be used for implementing pollution level alert protocols depending on forecast circulation patterns.

  15. Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin. (United States)

    Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian


    Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

  16. Interactions of Multiple Atmospheric Circulation Drive the Drought in Tarim River Basin (United States)

    Wu, Yong-Ping; Feng, Guo-Lin; Li, Bai-Lian


    Global warming is likely to cause overall drying of land surfaces and aridity increasing leading to expansion of dry climate zones. There is an increased risk of extremely arid environment and large deserts developed progressively in the central Asia. However, the key factors causing the drying in mid-Asia remain inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the relationship among precipitation, water vapor transportation in Tarim River Basin (TRB) and Multiple Atmospheric Circulation (MAC) to explore the mechanism of MAC driving the drying in TRB, through comparing MAC between abundant and scarce precipitation years. We found that Westerly Circulation (WC) and Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) are likely to promote the precipitation respectively. Whereas, they not only have their own influence but also restrict each other and facilitate the forming of peculiar water vapor transport channel for TRB, which is probably to restrain the precipitation and its distribution pattern and accelerate the drying in this region. Our results enrich the findings on mechanisms of wet places becoming wetter while dry areas getting drier under the global warming.

  17. Sensitivity of two Iberian lakes to North Atlantic atmospheric circulation modes (United States)

    Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Pla-Rabes, Sergi; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Jerez, Sonia; Rico-Herrero, Mayte; Vega, José C.; Jambrina-Enríquez, Margarita; Giralt, Santiago


    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts a major influence on the climate of the North Atlantic region. However, other atmospheric circulation modes (ACMs), such as the East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCAND) patterns, also play significant roles. The dynamics of lakes on the Iberian Peninsula are greatly controlled by climatic parameters, but their relationship with these various ACMs has not been investigated in detail. In this paper, we analyze monthly meteorological and limnological long-term datasets (1950-2011 and 1992-2011, respectively) from two lakes on the northern and central Iberian Peninsula (Sanabria and Las Madres) to develop an understanding of the seasonal sensitivity of these freshwater systems to the NAO, EA and SCAND circulation modes. The limnological variability within Lake Sanabria is primarily controlled by fluctuations in the seasonal precipitation and wind, and the primary ACMs associated with the winter limnological processes are the NAO and the SCAND modes, whereas only the EA mode appears to weakly influence processes during the summer. However, Lake Las Madres is affected by precipitation, wind and, to a lesser extent, temperature, whereas the ACMs have less influence. Therefore, we aim to show that the lakes of the Iberian Peninsula are sensitive to these ACMs. The results presented here indicate that the lake dynamics, in some cases, have a higher sensitivity to variations in the ACMs than single local meteorological variables. However, certain local features, such as geography, lake morphology and anthropic influences, are crucial to properly record the signals of these ACMs.

  18. Impacts of four northern-hemisphere teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulations over Eurasia and the Pacific (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Yu, Jin-yi; Paek, Houk


    The impacts of four teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulation components over Eurasia and the Pacific region, from low to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), were investigated comprehensively in this study. The patterns, as identified by the Climate Prediction Center (USA), were the East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Polar/Eurasia (POLEUR), and Scandinavian (SCAND) teleconnections. Results indicate that the EA pattern is closely related to the intensity of the subtropical high over different sectors of the NH in all seasons, especially boreal winter. The wave train associated with this pattern serves as an atmospheric bridge that transfers Atlantic influence into the low-latitude region of the Pacific. In addition, the amplitudes of the EAWR, SCAND, and POLEUR patterns were found to have considerable control on the "Vangengeim-Girs" circulation that forms over the Atlantic-Eurasian region in winter or spring. The EA and EAWR mainly affect the westerlies in winter and spring and the POLEUR and SCAND, respectively, in summer and winter. Strong westerlies confine the extension of the North Polar vortex, which generally results in a small weak vortex and a shallow East Asian trough located in a position further east than normal. Furthermore, the North Polar vortex presents significant connections with the patterns during winter and summer. Analyses in this work suggest that the teleconnection patterns in summer could be driven, at least partly, by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which to some degree might transmit the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to Eurasia and the Pacific region.

  19. The nonlinear variation of drought and its relation to atmospheric circulation in Shandong Province, East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baofu Li


    Full Text Available Considerable attention has recently been devoted to the linear trend of drought at the decadal to inter-decadal time scale; however, the nonlinear variation of drought at multi-decadal scales and its relation to atmospheric circulation need to be further studied. The linear and nonlinear variations of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI in Shandong from 1900 to 2012 and its relations to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, Siberian high (SH and Southern Oscillation (SO phase changes from multi-scale are detected using linear regression, the Mann–Kendall test, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD and the Pearson correlation analysis method. The results indicate that the PDSI shows no statistically significant linear change trend from 1900 to 2012; however, before (after the late 1950s, PDSI shows a significant upward (downward trend (P < 0.01 with a linear rate of 0.28/decade (−0.48/decade. From 1900 to 2012, the PDSI also exhibits a nonlinear variation trend at the inter-annual scale (quasi-3 and quasi-7-year, inter-decadal scale (quasi-14-year and multi-decadal scale (quasi-46 and quasi-65-year. The variance contribution rate of components from the inter-annual scale is the largest, reaching 38.7%, and that from the inter-decadal scale and multi-decadal scale are 18.9% and 19.0%, respectively, indicating that the inter-annual change exerts a huge influence on the overall PDSI change. The results also imply that the effect of the four atmospheric circulations (PDO, ENSO, SH, SO on PDSI at the multi-decadal variability scale are more important than that at the other scales. Consequently, we state that PDSI variation at the inter-annual scale has more instability, while that at the inter-decadal and multi-decadal scale is more strongly influenced by natural factors.

  20. Water Isotope Tracers of Indo-Pacific Atmospheric Circulation: A Modern Take on Past Dynamics (United States)

    Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D. C.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Cobb, K. M.; Conroy, J. L.


    Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios (δ18O, δD) in precipitation, terrestrial water bodies, groundwater, and surface seawater are powerful integrators of the atmospheric water cycle. As such, proxy archives of δ18O and δD form the basis for much of our understanding of past changes in Indo-Pacific climate. Water isotope studies of the past millennium suggest that both internal variability and forced changes in global temperature drove decadal to centennial changes in monsoons, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, ENSO, and other modes of variability. However, recent observations as well as proxy data have shown that δ18O and δD signatures are far more complex than previously believed. Testing hypotheses about the drivers of past Indo-Pacific hydroclimate therefore requires an improved understanding of modern-day isotope ratios. In this study, we present new analyses of Indo-Pacific climate/isotope relationships from satellite and in situ observations, as well as new simulations with water isotope-enabled components of the Community Earth System Model. We evaluate the mechanisms that reinforce or weaken the tropical amount effect, which is often invoked in interpreting paleo-isotope data as hydroclimate proxies. We find that the amount effect is highly variable through space and time. Generally, it is strongest at sites with large-amplitude variations in the seasonal cycle. Circulation and moisture convergence play key roles in determining the strength of the amount effect, although cloud processes such as Rayleigh distillation and rain evaporation are still important, especially in determining initial isotope ratios of transported moisture. The relative influence of these mechanisms on vapor δ18O and δD varies in different parts of the tropics, affecting how regional archives record ENSO and other circulation patterns. We discuss these differences, and their implications for reconstructing Indo-Pacific atmospheric variability on decadal and longer

  1. Culturable bacteria in Himalayan glacial ice in response to atmospheric circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Zhang


    Full Text Available Only recently has specific attention been given to culturable bacteria in Tibetan glaciers, but their relation to atmospheric circulation is less understood yet. Here we present the results of culturable bacteria preserved in an ice core drilled from the East Rongbuk (ER glacier, Himalayas. The average concentrations of culturable bacteria are 5.0, 0.8, 0.1 and 0.7 CFU mL−1 for the glacier ice deposited during the premonsoon, monsoon, postmonsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The high concentration of culturable bacteria in ER glacier deposited during the premonsoon season is attributed to the transportation of continental dust stirred up by the frequent dust storms during spring. This is also confirmed by the spatial distribution of culturable bacteria in Tibetan glaciers. Continental dust originated from the Northwest China accounts for the high abundance of culturable bacteria in the northern Tibetan Plateau, while monsoon moisture exerts great influence on culturable bacteria with low abundance in the southern plateau. The numbers of representatives with different ARDRA patterns from RFLP analysis are 10, 15, 1 and 2 for the glacial ice deposited during the premonsoon, monsoon, postmonsoon and winter seasons, respectively, suggesting that culturable bacteria deposited in ER glacier during monsoon season are more diverse than that deposited during the other seasons, possibly due to their derivation from both marine air masses and local or regional continental sources, while culturable bacteria deposited during the other seasons are from only one possible origin that is transported by westerlies. Our results show the first report of seasonal variations of abundance and species diversity of culturable bacteria recovered from glacial ice in the Himalayas, and we suggest that microorganisms in Himalayan ice might provide a potential new proxy for the reconstruction of atmospheric circulation.

  2. Trends in frequency and persistence of atmospheric circulation types over Europe derived from a multitude of classifications

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kučerová, Monika; Beck, Ch.; Philipp, A.; Huth, Radan


    Roč. 37, č. 5 (2017), s. 2502-2521 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP209/12/P811; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-04676S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : atmospheric circulation * classification * circulation type * trend * persistence * Europe * COST733cat Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 3.760, year: 2016

  3. Using Search Algorithms and Probabilistic Graphical Models to Understand the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Western US Drought (United States)

    Malevich, S. B.; Woodhouse, C. A.


    This work explores a new approach to quantify cool-season mid-latitude circulation dynamics as they relate western US streamflow variability and drought. This information is used to probabilistically associate patterns of synoptic atmospheric circulation with spatial patterns of drought in western US streamflow. Cool-season storms transport moisture from the Pacific Ocean and are a primary source for western US streamflow. Studies overthe past several decades have emphasized that the western US hydroclimate is influenced by the intensity and phasing of ocean and atmosphere dynamics and teleconnections, such as ENSO and North Pacific variability. These complex interactions are realized in atmospheric circulation along the west coast of North America. The region's atmospheric circulation can encourage a preferential flow in winter storm tracks from the Pacific, and thus influence the moisture conditions of a given river basin over the course of the cool season. These dynamics have traditionally been measured with atmospheric indices based on values from fixed points in space or principal component loadings. This study uses collective search agents to quantify the position and intensity of potentially non-stationary atmosphere features in climate reanalysis datasets, relative to regional hydrology. Results underline the spatio-temporal relationship between semi-permanent atmosphere characteristics and naturalized streamflow from major river basins of the western US. A probabilistic graphical model quantifies this relationship while accounting for uncertainty from noisy climate processes, and eventually, limitations from dataset length. This creates probabilities for semi-permanent atmosphere features which we hope to associate with extreme droughts of the paleo record, based on our understanding of atmosphere-streamflow relations observed in the instrumental record.

  4. Precipitation characteristics for the Slovak republic and their link to the atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Pokorná, Lucie; Pecho, Jozef; Faško, Pavol


    Slovak Republic is situated in the centre of Europe. Its terrain is rugged and altitude increases from the southern lowlands to mountains in the northeastern and northern parts of the region where it reaches more than 2000 m a. s. l. Precipitation in this region is affected by atmospheric systems coming from the Atlantic ocean (western direction) on one hand and from the Mediterranean on the other hand (southern direction). However cyclones passing the Baltic Sea play a significant role determining precipitation occurrence and amounts as well. All these factors together with local effects lead to three different precipitation regimes in Slovakia: (i) Continental (with low precipitation in winter and the highest in summer), (ii) Atlantic (with equally distributed precipi¬tation all year round) and (iii) Mediterranean (with highest pre¬cipitation in June or May and secon¬dary maximum in October-December). The Mediterranean regime is more pronounced in the southern part of Central Slovakia while the Continental in the northeastern Slovakia. In the contribution we focus on distribution of precipitation amounts during the year and on trends in occurrence of extreme precipitation and droughts. Series from 50 meteorological stations in the Slovak Republic from the period 1951, resp. 1961-2010, are used. The sub-regions with typical annual courses of precipitation are identified using cluster analysis. The temporal behaviour of mean precipitation totals during the second half of the 20th century is characterized by a significant decrease until the mid-1990s followed by an increase up to the present. The increase of precipitation totals is registered mainly in winter, and partly also in spring and autumn. Nevertheless the increase is not regular; short periods with heavy precipi-tation as well as longer and more severe drought spells have occurred more frequently in two recent decades. In the second part of this work, the influence of atmospheric circulation on

  5. Major River Floods and Severe Winter Storms Linked To Changes of The Atmospheric Circulation Across Europe (United States)

    Caspary, H. J.

    During the last two decades Western and Central Europe faced several severe winter storms and major river floodings. The recent winter storms "Anatol" (3.-4.12.1999) in Northern Europe, "Lothar" (26.12.1999) in France, Switzerland, and Southwest Ger- many and "Martin" (27.12.1999) in France, Spain and Switzerland caused economic losses of 17.7 billion US- including 10.4 billion US- insured losses and more than 160 fatalities. From 25.01.-01.03.1990 a series of 8 winter storms caused economic losses of 14.8 billion US- and 230 fatalities. The major river floods of Dec. 1993 and Jan. 1995 in Germany, Belgium, France, and Netherlands caused economic losses of more than 4.7 billion US-. It will be demonstrated that all these winter storms and most of the major river floods in Southwest and Western Germany were produced by a few types of zonal circulations across Europe. The frequency and persistence of these zonal atmospheric circulation types have increased dramatically for the winter months (Dec.- Feb.) during the recent three decades. For their time series from 1881- 2001, nonparametric tests show that nonstationarity of the winter frequencies started in 1973. As a consequence of this, the winter precipitation has increased highly signif- icant in most parts of Southwest Germany. It will be demonstrated that the increasing trends in the time series of annual peak discharges of four river basins of Southwest Germany are closely linked to the frequency changes of the zonal circulations. During the observation period (1926-2001)nearly all extreme floods including the floods of Feb. 1990, Dec. 1993, Jan. 1995, Feb. 1997, and Oct. 1998 for all four basins have been caused by heavy, long lasting rainfall during zonal circulations, especially the type "West cyclonic" (Wz) during winter. It will be demonstrated that this leads to an increased flood risk. Nonstationarity of the peak discharges does not concern all Germany but for large areas of Southwest Germany the

  6. Anomalies of Pulmonary Circulation as a Cause of Hemoptysis: A Series of Unusual Cases and Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamini Gupta


    Full Text Available The expectoration of blood originating from the lower respiratory tract, called hemoptysis, is a common clinical condition with many potential etiologies. Massive hemoptysis is life threatening and needs urgent intervention. Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT is a useful non-invasive imaging modality for the initial assessment of hemoptysis. Using MDCT with multiplanar reformatted images has improved the diagnosis and management of hemoptysis by providing a more precise depiction of bronchial and non-bronchial systemic arteries than conventional computed tomography (CT. In 95% of hemoptysis cases, the systemic arterial system is the origin of bleeding and pulmonary vascular anomalies are a rare cause. Among these, pulmonary arteriovenous malformation, hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia, and Osler-Weber-Rendu disease are well known entities. However, primary anomalies affecting pulmonary vessels in the mediastinum or diseases secondarily affecting the pulmonary vessels are unusual causes. Here we present three cases where patients had pulmonary vascular anomalies causing hemoptysis. These patients had decreased pulmonary arterial pressures leading to bronchial and systemic arterial hypertrophy and development of bronchopulmonary collaterals. Secondary CT signs in the parenchyma and mediastinum (mosaic attenuation, ground glass haze, subpleural interstitial thickening, and hypertrophied bronchial arteries were similar in all patients. Hence, evaluation of the MDCT images for primary abnormality led to the diagnosis.

  7. Lowering of glacial atmospheric CO2 in response to changes in oceanic circulation and marine biogeochemistry (United States)

    Brovkin, Victor; Ganopolski, Andrey; Archer, David; Rahmstorf, Stefan


    We use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, to investigate what recent improvements in the representation of the physics and biology of the glacial ocean imply for the atmospheric concentration. The coupled atmosphere-ocean model under the glacial boundary conditions is able to reproduce the deep, salty, stagnant water mass inferred from Antarctic deep pore water data and the changing temperature of the entire deep ocean. When carbonate compensation is included in the model, we find a CO2 drawdown of 43 ppmv associated mainly with the shoaling of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and an increased fraction of water masses of southern origin in the deep Atlantic. Fertilizing the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean north of the polar front leads to a further drawdown of 37 ppmv. Other changes to the glacial carbon cycle include a decrease in the amount of carbon stored in the terrestrial biosphere (540 Pg C), which increases atmospheric CO2 by 15 ppmv, and a change in ocean salinity resulting from a drop in sea level, which elevates CO2 by another 12 ppmv. A decrease in shallow water CaCO3 deposition draws down CO2 by 12 ppmv. In total, the model is able to explain more than two thirds (65 ppmv) of the glacial to interglacial CO2 change, based only on mechanisms that are clearly documented in the proxy data. A good match between simulated and reconstructed distribution of δ13C changes in the deep Atlantic suggests that the model captures the mechanisms of reorganization of biogeochemistry in the Atlantic Ocean reasonably well. Additional, poorly constrained mechanisms to explain the rest of the observed drawdown include changes in the organic carbon:CaCO3 ratio of sediment rain reaching the seafloor, iron fertilization in the subantarctic Pacific Ocean, and changes in terrestrial weathering.

  8. Radiative Impacts of Cloud Heterogeneity and Overlap in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (United States)

    Oreopoulos, L.; Lee, D.; Sud, Y. C.; Suarez, M. J.


    The radiative impacts of introducing horizontal heterogeneity of layer cloud condensate, and vertical overlap of condensate and cloud fraction are examined with the aid of a new radiation package operating in the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model. The impacts are examined in terms of diagnostic top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect (CRE) calculations for a range of assumptions and parameter specifications about the overlap. The investigation is conducted for two distinct cloud schemes, the one that comes with the standard GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced cloud microphysical capabilities; both are coupled to a cloud generator allowing arbitrary cloud overlap specification. We find that cloud overlap radiative impacts are significantly stronger for the operational cloud scheme for which a change of cloud fraction overlap from maximum-random to generalized results to global changes of SW and LW CRE of approximately 4 Watts per square meter, and zonal changes of up to approximately 10 Watts per square meter. This is because of fewer occurrences compared to the other scheme of large layer cloud fractions and of multi-layer situations with large numbers of atmospheric being simultaneously cloudy, conditions that make overlap details more important. The impact on CRE of the details of condensate distribution overlap is much weaker. Once generalized overlap is adopted, both cloud schemes are only modestly sensitive to the exact values of the overlap parameters. We also find that if one of the CRE components is overestimated and the other underestimated, both cannot be driven towards observed values by adjustments to cloud condensate heterogeneity and overlap alone.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Mishchenko


    Full Text Available Statistics of occurrence of anomalous disturbances in high-frequency geoacoutic emis-sion of the near surface sedimentary rocks and in atmospheric electric field by the ground surface before earthquakes is presented. Long-term continuous series of measure-ments of geoacoustic emission for the period of 2003-2012 at «Mikizha» site and the data of measurements of atmospheric electric field obtained for the summer-autumn periods of 2006-2008 at «Mikizha» site and for 2009-2012 at «Karymshina» site were used in the analysis. Anomalous disturbances of the emission and of the field were compared with the earthquake catalogue of Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Service RAS.

  10. Results of an interactively coupled atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model. Comparison with observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, R.; Dameris, M.; Schnadt, C. [and others


    An interactively coupled climate-chemistry model which enables a simultaneous treatment of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry and their feedbacks is presented. This is the first model, which interactively combines a general circulation model based on primitive equations with a rather complex model of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, and which is computational efficient enough to allow long-term integrations with currently available computer resources. The applied model version extends from the Earth's surface up to 10 hPa with a relatively high number (39) of vertical levels. We present the results of a present-day (1990) simulation and compare it to available observations. We focus on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry relevant to describe the stratospheric ozone layer. The current model version ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM can realistically reproduce stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic vortex region, including stratospheric warming events. This constitutes a major improvement compared to formerly applied model versions. However, apparent shortcomings in Antarctic circulation and temperatures persist. The seasonal and interannual variability of the ozone layer is simulated in accordance with observations. Activation and deactivation of chlorine in the polar stratospheric vortices and their interhemispheric differences are reproduced. The consideration of the chemistry feedback on dynamics results in an improved representation of the spatial distribution of stratospheric water vapor concentrations, i.e., the simulated meriodional water vapor gradient in the stratosphere is realistic. The present model version constitutes a powerful tool to investigate, for instance, the combined direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic trace gas emissions, and the future evolution of the ozone layer. (orig.)

  11. Seasonal Water Transport in the Atmosphere of Mars: Applications of a Mars General Circulation Model Using Mars Global Surveyor Data (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.


    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. We present below a summary of progress made during the duration of this JRI. The focus of this JRI has been to investigate seasonal water vapor transport in the atmosphere of Mars and its effects on the planet's present climate. To this end, the primary task has been to adapt a new dynamical processor for the adiabatic tendencies of the atmospheric circulation into the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Using identical boundary and initial conditions, several comparative tests between the new and old MGCMs have been performed and the nature of the simulated circulations have been diagnosed. With confidence that the updated version of the Ames MGCM produces quite similar mean and eddy circulation statistics, the new climate model is well poised as a tool to pursue fundamental questions related to the spatial and seasonal variations of atmospheric water vapor on Mars, and to explore exchanges of water with non-atmospheric reservoirs and transport within its atmosphere. In particular, the role of surface sources and sinks can be explored, the range of water-vapor saturation altitudes can be investigated, and plausible precipitation mechanisms can be studied, for a range of atmospheric dust loadings. Such future investigations can contribute to a comprehensive study of surface inventories, exchange mechanisms, and the relative importance of atmospheric transport Mars' water cycle. A listing of presentations made and manuscripts submitted during the course of this project is provided.

  12. Dust sources and atmospheric circulation in concert controlling Saharan dust emission and transport towards the Western Mediterranean Basin (United States)

    Schepanski, Kerstin; Mallet, Marc; Heinold, Bernd; Ulrich, Max


    Dust transported from north African source regions towards Europe is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Mediterranean region, a geographic region that is in part densely populated. Besides its impacts on the atmospheric radiation budget, dust suspended in the atmosphere results in reduced air quality, which is generally sensed as a reduction in quality of life. Furthermore, the exposure to dust aerosols enhances the prevalence of respiratory diseases, which reduces the general human wellbeing, and ultimately results in an increased loss of working hours due to illness and hospitalization rates. Characteristics of the atmospheric dust life cycle that determine dust transport will be presented with focus on the ChArMEx special observation period in June and July 2013 using the atmosphere-dust model COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: Consortium for Small-scale MOdeling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model). Modes of atmospheric circulation were identified from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the geopotential height at 850 hPa for summer 2013 and compared to EOFs calculated from 1979-2015 ERA-Interim reanalysis. Generally, two different phases were identified. They are related to the eastward propagation of the subtropical ridge into the Mediterranean basin, the position of the Saharan heat low, and the predominant Iberian heat low. The relation of these centres of action illustrates a dipole pattern for enhanced (reduced) dust emission fluxes, stronger (weaker) meridional dust transport, and consequent increase (decrease) atmospheric dust concentrations and deposition fluxes. In concert, the results from this study aim at illustrating the relevance of knowing the dust source locations in concert with the atmospheric circulation. Ultimately, this study addresses the question of what is finally transported towards the Mediterranean basin and Europe from which source regions - and fostered by which atmospheric circulation pattern. Outcomes from this study

  13. Neutrino physics and the mirror world: how exact parity symmetry explains the solar neutrino deficit, the atmospheric neutrino anomaly and the LSND experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foot, R.; Volkas, R.R.


    Evidence for {nu}-bar{sub {mu}} {yields} {nu}-bar{sub e} oscillations has been reported at LAMPF using the LSND detector. Further evidence for neutrino mixing comes from the solar neutrino deficit and the atmospheric neutrino anomaly. All of these anomalies require new physics. It is shown that all of these anomalies can be explained if the standard model is enlarged so that an unbroken parity symmetry can be defined. This explanation holds independently of the actual model for neutrino masses. Thus, it is argued that parity symmetry is not only a beautiful candidate for a symmetry beyond the standard model, but it can also explain the known neutrino physics anomalies. 41 refs.

  14. Atmospheric forcing intensifies the effects of regional ocean warming on reef-scale temperature anomalies during a coral bleaching event (United States)

    Zhang, Zhenlin; Falter, James; Lowe, Ryan; Ivey, Greg; McCulloch, Malcolm


    We investigate how local atmospheric conditions and hydrodynamic forcing contributed to local variations in water temperature within a fringing coral reef-lagoon system during the peak of a marine heat wave in 2010-2011 that caused mass coral bleaching across Western Australia. A three-dimensional circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a built-in air-sea heat flux exchange module Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Experiment (COARE) was coupled with a spectral wave model Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) to resolve the surface heat exchange and wave-driven reef circulation in Coral Bay, Ningaloo Reef. Using realistic oceanic and atmospheric forcing, the model predictions were in good agreement with measured time series of water temperature at various locations in the coral reef system during the bleaching event. Through a series of sensitivity analyses, we found that the difference in temperature between the reef and surrounding offshore waters (ΔT) was predominantly a function of both the daily mean net heat flux (Qnet>¯) and residence time, whereas diurnal variations in reef water temperature were dependent on the diurnal fluctuation in the net heat flux. We found that reef temperatures were substantially higher than offshore in the inner lagoon under normal weather conditions and over the entire reef domain under more extreme weather conditions (0.7°C-1.5°C). Although these temperature elevations were still less than that caused by the regional ocean warming (2°C-3°C), the arrival of peak seasonal temperatures in the summer of 2010-2011 (when net atmospheric heat fluxes were positive and abnormally high) caused substantially higher thermal stresses than would have otherwise occurred if offshore temperatures had reached their normal seasonal maxima in autumn (when net atmospheric heat fluxes were negative or cooling). Therefore, the degree heating weeks calculated based on offshore temperature substantially underestimated the thermal stresses

  15. Satellite thermal IR and atmospheric radon anomalies associated with the Haripur earthquake (Oct 2010; Mw 5.2), Pakistan (United States)

    Awais, Muhammad; Barkat, Adnan; Ali, Aamir; Rehman, Khaista; Ali Zafar, Waqar; Iqbal, Talat


    The recent scientific progress in the context of earthquake forecasting reveals some key physical processes related to seismic activity. The lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model provides a comprehensive mechanism to understand the underlying key physical processes. In this study, a precursory analysis was conducted for the shallow, moderate-magnitude Haripur earthquake (Oct 2010; Mw 5.2) bounded by two major water reservoirs, highlighting its significance. This precursory analysis was performed using the land surface temperature (LST) extracted from satellite (MODIS) thermal infrared data and atmospheric radon concentration recorded at Islamabad and Murree stations using radon monitors. A significant change in LST (4-8 °C) was observed in the epicentral region 6 days prior to this event. In addition, a comparison was made between daily and five-year-averaged LST that further supports our results. The radon concentration also showed anomalous behavior 3-4 days prior to this particular event with crucial meteorological indicators in the safe limit. This abnormal behavior of both precursors prior to this event proposes a possible correlation with the local seismic activity. Moreover, the higher amplitude of radon anomaly at the nearest station (Islamabad) is also validating its local cause. The results presented in this study are very encouraging and stimulate the idea of earthquake forecasting using multi-precursory approach.

  16. Impact of atmospheric circulation types on southwest Asian dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (United States)

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Houssos, E. E.; Solmon, F.; Legrand, M.; Rashki, A.; Dumka, U. C.; Francois, P.; Gautam, R.; Singh, R. P.


    This study examines the meteorological feedback on dust aerosols and rainfall over the Arabian Sea and India during the summer monsoon using satellite data, re-analysis and a regional climate model. Based on days with excess aerosol loading over the central Ganges basin during May - September, two distinct atmospheric circulation types (weather clusters) are identified, which are associated with different dust-aerosol and rainfall distributions over south Asia, highlighting the role of meteorology on dust emissions and monsoon rainfall. Each cluster is characterized by different patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields at 1000 hPa and at 700 hPa, thus modulating changes in dust-aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea. One cluster is associated with deepening of the Indian/Pakistan thermal low leading to (i) increased cyclonicity and thermal convection over northwestern India and Arabian Peninsula, (ii) intensification of the southwest monsoon off the Horn of Africa, iii) increase in dust emissions from Rub-Al-Khali and Somalian deserts, (iv) excess dust accumulation over the Arabian Sea and, (v) strengthening of the convergence of humid air masses and larger precipitation over Indian landmass compared to the other cluster. The RegCM4.4 model simulations for dust-aerosol and precipitation distributions support the meteorological fields and satellite observations, while the precipitation over India is positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea on daily basis for both weather clusters. This study highlights the key role of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics on dust life cycle and rainfall over the monsoon-influenced south Asia.

  17. Arctic storms simulated in atmospheric general circulation models under uniform high, uniform low, and variable resolutions (United States)

    Roesler, E. L.; Bosler, P. A.; Taylor, M.


    The impact of strong extratropical storms on coastal communities is large, and the extent to which storms will change with a warming Arctic is unknown. Understanding storms in reanalysis and in climate models is important for future predictions. We know that the number of detected Arctic storms in reanalysis is sensitive to grid resolution. To understand Arctic storm sensitivity to resolution in climate models, we describe simulations designed to identify and compare Arctic storms at uniform low resolution (1 degree), at uniform high resolution (1/8 degree), and at variable resolution (1 degree to 1/8 degree). High-resolution simulations resolve more fine-scale structure and extremes, such as storms, in the atmosphere than a uniform low-resolution simulation. However, the computational cost of running a globally uniform high-resolution simulation is often prohibitive. The variable resolution tool in atmospheric general circulation models permits regional high-resolution solutions at a fraction of the computational cost. The storms are identified using the open-source search algorithm, Stride Search. The uniform high-resolution simulation has over 50% more storms than the uniform low-resolution and over 25% more storms than the variable resolution simulations. Storm statistics from each of the simulations is presented and compared with reanalysis. We propose variable resolution as a cost-effective means of investigating physics/dynamics coupling in the Arctic environment. Future work will include comparisons with observed storms to investigate tuning parameters for high resolution models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2016-7402 A

  18. Investigating the Climate Impacts of Black Carbon in GFDL's AM2.1 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (United States)

    Persad, G.; Ming, Y.


    Black carbon aerosols (BC) have been shown to significantly impact the climate system through their radiative effects. Many of the physical processes that drive BC climate impacts, however, are not yet well characterized across general circulation models. This has made it increasingly difficult to reach a consensus within the modeling community on how best to calculate BC radiative forcing in a way that is both representative and comparable between models. Calculation methodologies that include atmospheric perturbations, while more representative, are also more sensitive to model-specific representation of physical processes than those that do not. This study investigates the physical processes behind atmospheric perturbations due to BC using a modified version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AM2.1). The preindustrial control case is perturbed by inserting a globally uniform BC burden into the atmosphere at a series of layers, and the TOA flux change is analyzed. We use a theoretical framework to establish the robustness of the atmospheric response produced by the model in order to determine the comparability of forcing calculations derived using atmospheric perturbations in AM2.1. Responses vary based on the cloud environment and the level of BC emplacement. Results, however, exhibit robust correlation with theory with positive implications for the inclusion of the atmospheric response in the calculation of BC radiative forcing.

  19. Models for changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, ocean geochemistry and circulation during the late Pleistocene

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.W.A.; SenGupta, R.

    the regionally varying responses of primary productivity and water circulation to the climatic changes. For example, given the unique seasonally varying circulation pattern and an acute deficiency in dissolved oxygen at mid-depth, the feedback mechanisms...

  20. Linking atmospheric circulation to daily rainfall patterns across the Murrumbidgee River Basin. (United States)

    Charles, S P; Bates, B C; Viney, N R


    The hydrological cycle in Australia covers an extraordinary range of climatic and hydrologic regimes. It is now widely accepted that Australian hydrology is significantly different from all other regions and continents with the partial exception of southern Africa. Rainfall variability is very high in almost all regions with respect to amount and the lengths of wet and dry spells. These factors are keys to the behaviour and health of Australian aquatic ecosystems and water resources. Thus assessment of how rainfall may change under a potential future climate is critical. For a case study of the Murrumbidgee River Basin (MRB), a statistical downscaling model that links broad scale atmospheric circulation to multi-site, daily precipitation is assessed using observed data. This model can be driven with climate model simulations to produce rainfall scenarios at the scale required by impacts models. These can then be used in probabilistic risk assessments of climate change impacts on river health. These issues will be discussed in the context of assessing the potential impacts of precipitation changes due to projected climate change on river health.

  1. Seasonal Clear-Sky Flux and Cloud Radiative Effect Anomalies in the Arctic Atmospheric Column Associated with the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole (United States)

    Hegyi, Bradley M.; Taylor, Patrick C.


    The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Arctic Dipole (AD) on the radiative flux into the Arctic mean atmospheric column is quantified. 3-month-averaged AO and AD indices are regressed with corresponding surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes from the CERES-SFC and CERES-TOA EBAF datasets over the period 2000-2014. An increase in clear-sky fluxes into the Arctic mean atmospheric column during fall is the largest net flux anomaly associated with AO, primarily driven by a positive net longwave flux anomaly (i.e. increase of net flux into the atmospheric column) at the surface. A decrease in the Arctic mean atmospheric column cloud radiative effect during winter and spring is the largest flux anomaly associated with AD, primarily driven by a change in the longwave cloud radiative effect at the surface. These prominent responses to AO and AD are widely distributed across the ice-covered Arctic, suggesting that the physical process or processes that bring about the flux change associated with AO and AD are distributed throughout the Arctic.

  2. Sensitivity of boreal-summer circulation and precipitation to atmospheric aerosols in selected regions – Part 1: Africa and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Sud


    Full Text Available Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4 General Circulation Model (GCM was employed to assess the influence of potential changes in aerosols on the regional circulation, ambient temperatures, and precipitation in four selected regions: India and Africa (current paper, as well as North and South America (companion paper. Ensemble-simulations were carried out with the GCM to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effects, hereafter ADE and AIE. Each simulation was started from the NCEP-analyzed initial conditions for 1 May and was integrated through May-June-July-August of each year: 1982–1987 to provide an ensemble set of six simulations. In the first set, called experiment (#1, climatological aerosols were prescribed. The next two experiments (#2 and #3 had two sets of simulations each: one with 2X and other with 1/2X the climatological aerosols over each of the four selected regions. In experiment #2, the anomaly regions were advectively restricted (AR, i.e., the large-scale prognostic fields outside the aerosol anomaly regions were prescribed while in experiment #3, the anomaly regions were advectively Interactive (AI as is the case in a normal GCM integrations, but with the same aerosols anomalies as in experiment #2. Intercomparisons of circulation, diabatic heating, and precipitation difference fields showed large disparities among the AR and AI simulations, which raised serious questions about the proverbial AR assumption, commonly invoked in regional climate simulation studies. Consequently AI simulation mode was chosen for the subsequent studies. Two more experiments (#4 and #5 were performed in the AI mode in which ADE and AIE were activated one at a time. The results showed that ADE and AIE work in concert to make the joint influences larger than sum of each acting alone. Moreover, the ADE and AIE influences were vastly different for the Indian and Africa regions, which suggest an imperative need to include them

  3. Non-linear climate feedback analysis in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colman, R.A.; Power, S.B.; McAvaney, B.J. [Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). Research Centre


    A method is described for evaluating the `partial derivatives` of globally averaged top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes with respect to basicclimate model physical parameters. This method is used to analyse feedbacks in the Australian bureau of meteorology research centre general circulation model. The parameters considered are surface temperature, water vapour, lapse rate and cloud cover. The climate forcing which produces the changes is a globally uniform sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. The first and second order differentials of model parameters with respect to the forcing (i.e. SST changes) are estimated from quadratic least square fitting. Except for total cloud cover, variables are found to be strong functions of global SST. Strongly nonlinear variations of lapse rate and high cloud amount and height appear to relate to the nonlinear response in penetrative convection. Globally averaged TOA radiation differentials with respect to model parameters are also evaluated. With the exception of total cloud contributions, a high correlation is generally found to exist, on the global mean level, between TOA radiation and the respective parameter perturbations. The largest nonlinear terms contributing to radiative changes are those due to lapse rate and high cloud. The contributions of linear and nonlinear terms to the overall radiative response from a 4 K SST perturbation are assessed. Significant nonlinear responses are found to be associated with lapse rate, water vapour and cloud changes. Although the exact magnitude of these responses is likely to be a function of the particular model as well as the imposed SST perturbation pattern, the present experiments flag these as processes which cannot properly be understood from linear theory in the evaluation of climate change sensitivity. (orig.) With 6 figs., 4 tabs., 28 refs.

  4. Atmospheric circulation associated with extreme generalized frosts persistence in central-southern South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Gabriela V. [Centro de Investigaciones Cientificas y Transferencia de Tecnologia a la Produccion, Diamante (CICYTTTP-CONICET), Diamante, Entre Rios (Argentina); Berri, Guillermo J. [Servicio Meteorologico Nacional - CONICET, Buenos Aires (Argentina)


    Generalized frosts (GF) in central-southern South America have a strong impact due to their spatial extension, and they are especially important when they become persistent. This paper aims at identifying the atmospheric circulation features that determine the extreme GF persistence, i.e. very persistent and without persistence, and the differences between them, during the 1961-1990 winters. Since the GF without persistence group outnumbers the other one, two subgroups are composed with events selected from winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, respectively. Additionally, the individual event of July 1988 within the very persistent GF group is analyzed due to its exceptional persistence. GF persistence is mainly conditioned by two large-scale dynamic factors. One is the Rossby wave train propagation across the Pacific Ocean, and the other one is the location with respect to the continent and the magnitude of the confluence in the jet entrance region in subtropical latitudes. A predominantly meridional Rossby wave train propagation with a confluence region to the west of the continent prior to the event favors GF with intermediate (null) persistence depending on the greater (lesser) jet acceleration. This is conditioned by the magnitude of the confluence, which, in turn, depends on the disposition of the wave train propagation pattern. Instead, an essentially zonal propagation with a confluence region to the east of the continent favors the GF persistence for several days, yet if there is no confluence the event does not persist. The greatest persistence of an event combines the confluence/diffluence of the jet entrance/exit region, which depends on the disposition with respect to the continent of the zonally propagating Rossby wave trains. (orig.)

  5. Multi-temporal clustering of continental floods and associated atmospheric circulations (United States)

    Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Yongqiang


    Investigating clustering of floods has important social, economic and ecological implications. This study examines the clustering of Australian floods at different temporal scales and its possible physical mechanisms. Flood series with different severities are obtained by peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling in four flood thresholds. At intra-annual scale, Cox regression and monthly frequency methods are used to examine whether and when the flood clustering exists, respectively. At inter-annual scale, dispersion indices with four-time variation windows are applied to investigate the inter-annual flood clustering and its variation. Furthermore, the Kernel occurrence rate estimate and bootstrap resampling methods are used to identify flood-rich/flood-poor periods. Finally, seasonal variation of horizontal wind at 850 hPa and vertical wind velocity at 500 hPa are used to investigate the possible mechanisms causing the temporal flood clustering. Our results show that: (1) flood occurrences exhibit clustering at intra-annual scale, which are regulated by climate indices representing the impacts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans; (2) the flood-rich months occur from January to March over northern Australia, and from July to September over southwestern and southeastern Australia; (3) stronger inter-annual clustering takes place across southern Australia than northern Australia; and (4) Australian floods are characterised by regional flood-rich and flood-poor periods, with 1987-1992 identified as the flood-rich period across southern Australia, but the flood-poor period across northern Australia, and 2001-2006 being the flood-poor period across most regions of Australia. The intra-annual and inter-annual clustering and temporal variation of flood occurrences are in accordance with the variation of atmospheric circulation. These results provide relevant information for flood management under the influence of climate variability, and, therefore, are helpful for developing

  6. Characteristics of atmospheric circulation over East Asia associated with summer blocking (United States)

    Park, Yong-Jun; Ahn, Joong-Bae


    The boreal summer-blocking regions were defined using the reanalysis data over the three decades of 1981-2010, and the influence of the blocking on atmospheric circulation in East Asia was examined. The summer blocking occurred mostly in North Europe, Ural region, Sea of Okhotsk (OK), and northeastern Pacific. The summer blocking was the major mode in these four regions according to principal component analysis using 500 hPa geopotential heights. Among the four blocking regions, OK blocking frequencies (OK BFs) showed negative and positive correlations with summer temperature and precipitation of Northeast Asia centered around the East Sea/Sea of Japan, respectively. In particular, the OK BF had a statistically significant correlation coefficient of -0.54 with summer temperatures in the Korean Peninsula. This indicates that the summer temperature and precipitation in this region were closely related to the OK blocking. According to the composite analysis for the years of higher-than-average BF (positive BF years), the OK High became stronger and expanded, while the North Pacific High was weakened over the Korean Peninsula and Japan and an anomalously deep trough was developed in the upper layer (200 hPa). As the cool OK High expanded, the temperature decreased over Northeast Asia centered around the East Sea/Sea of Japan and the lower level (850 hPa) air converged cyclonically, resulting in the increased precipitation, which induced the divergence in the upper layer and thereby strengthened the jet stream. Thus, the boreal summer OK blocking systematically influencing the area as the most dominant mode.

  7. Atmospheric circulation influence on the interannual variability of snow pack in the Centre Asian Moutains during 1959-2008 (United States)

    Cui, C.; Wei, Rongqing; Yang, Qing


    Large areas in the Chinese Tianshans and Altays are covered by snow between December and April. A significant positive trend in these two moutains snow pack was detected during the past half century. This paper analyses the interannual variation of snow accumulation in these mountains in relation to the variability of atmospheric circulation. Two spatial scales, from weather types over the centre Asian to hemispheric atmospheric patterns were considered. The results show strong relationships between the annual occurrence of several weather types and winter snow accumulation. Changes in the frequency of several weather types are explained by the evolution of large scale hemispheric circulation patterns, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Wind Index(WWI). Thus, the positive trend observed in the NAO index and WWI leads to an increase in the occurrence of types that favour snow accumulation and a decrease in unfavourable conditions for snow pack during the last half of the 20th century.

  8. Optimizing an atmospheric general circulation model for weather prediction (10km) and climate (100km) resolutions. (United States)

    Putman, W.; Suarez, M.; Molod, A.; Takacs, L.; Barahona, D.


    At the GMAO we have developed a multi-scale modeling and assimilation system (GEOS-5) that is used at very different resolutions for numerical weather prediction (NWP), reanalysis, seasonal forecasting, and longer-term climate applications. We have tried to develop tunings of the AGCM parameterizations that allow us to use the model in this range of resolutions (Molod et al, 2015). In this presentation, we focus on several parameters that (in our system, at least) that appear to be most effectively tuned for achieving the desired seamlessness: (1) the critical relative humidity used in the precipitation PDF scheme, (2) the maximum allowed entrainment in the deep convective parameterization, (3) the timescales for shallow and deep convection, and (4) the physics/dynamics coupling timestep itself. Although some of these parameters require only choosing optimum values at each resolution, we find that those involved with the balance between resolved and parameterized deep convection must be varied in a flow-dependent way. In the presentation we describe a scheme to do this that uses low-level moisture in the free atmosphere to identify regions with active resolved convection. We will also argue, based on the sensitivity we see to physics/dynamics coupling timestep, that it may be necessary to bring water vapor transport and simple condensation and heating into the dynamics, since their time scales are comparable to those of resolved vertical motions. We will also discuss the tuning procedure, and in particular, the metrics used to select parameters. Using high-resolution observations of global brightness temperature, precipitation, and water vapor we explore the characteristics of weather produced within a well-tuned climate simulation. Re-forecasting experiments can be used to explore the ideal tuning for producing the best anomaly correlation and root mean squared (RMS) error statistics for the basic state variables in a five day forecast validated against high

  9. Simulation of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption using ECHAM5 – Part 1: Sensitivity to the modes of atmospheric circulation and boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Thomas


    Full Text Available The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991 was one of the strongest volcanic eruptions in the 20th century and this well observed eruption can serve as an important case study to understand the subsequent weather and climate changes. In this paper, the most comprehensive simulations to date of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption are carried out with prescribed volcanic aerosols including observed SSTs, QBO and volcanically induced ozone anomalies. This is also the first attempt to include all the known factors for the simulation of such an experiment. Here, the climate response is evaluated under different boundary conditions including one at a time, thereby, investigating the radiative and dynamical responses to individual and combined forcings by observed SSTs, QBO and volcanic effects. Two ensembles of ten members each, for unperturbed and volcanically perturbed conditions were carried out using the middle atmosphere configuration of ECHAM5 general circulation model. Our results show that the simulated climate response that may arise solely from aerosol forcing in lower stratospheric temperature is insensitive to the boundary conditions in the tropics and does not show some observed features such as the temperature signature of the QBO phases. Also, statistically significant positive anomalies in the high latitudes in NH winter of 1991/92 seen in our model simulations with prescribed observed SST and QBO phases as boundary conditions are consistent with the observations. To simulate realistically the lower stratospheric temperature response, one must include all the known factors. The pure QBO and ocean signatures in lower stratospheric temperature are simulated consistently with earlier studies. The indirect effect of the volcanic aerosols manifested as the winter warming pattern is not simulated in the ensemble mean of the experiments. Our analysis also shows that the response to El Niño conditions is very strong

  10. Non-stationarities of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events in the second half of the 20th century related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Merkenschlager, Christian; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus


    In the context of analysing temporally varying relationships of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area and associated anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, quantile regression models (QRMs) have been established. Different circulation and thermodynamic variables at the 700hPa and 850hPa levels of the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis dataset (predictors) as well as daily precipitation time series of different weather stations in the Mediterranean area (predictand) have been used in these regression models. Special emphasis is put on non-stationarities in the relationships of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and heavy precipitation events. Based on rainfall time series tested for homogeneity and completeness, a s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) yields 22 regions of similar precipitation variability for the winter season. The station with the highest PC loading represents the reference station for each region. S-mode PCAs have also been applied to reduce dimensions of the predictor data. The areas of high PC loadings reflect corresponding spatial centres of variation and their time coefficients (scores) are used as predictors in the QRMs. Since the daily precipitation sums are not Gaussian distributed, a three-step censored quantile regression is used to assess the different quantiles. The zero precipitation line represents the censor. By means of the Censored Quantile Verification Skill Score (CQVSS) as a measure of goodness, the best combination of predictor variables can be determined. Mostly, a combination of one thermodynamic predictor and one circulation predictor provides the highest scores whereas an additional predictor does not lead to any significant improvement. In a next step, the number of PCs for both predictors has been determined according to their significance on the level of α=0.01 for every quantile. In the scope of assessing non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships, the time series are divided

  11. Interdecadal change on the relationship between the mid-summer temperature in South China and atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (United States)

    Chen, Ruidan; Wen, Zhiping; Lu, Riyu


    South China suffers from high temperature frequently in mid-summer and this study aims to explore the interdecadal change of interannual variation of the mid-summer temperature in South China. It is revealed that the relationship between South China temperature and atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) experiences an interdecadal change around the early 1990s. Before the early 1990s, warmer summer in South China is associated with the mid-latitude teleconnection featured by higher pressure over the Ural Mountains and the Korean Peninsula and lower pressure around the Lake Baikal. South China is located at the southern flank of an anomalous high pressure. After the early 1990s, South China temperature is prominently influenced by the tropical SSTA, and meanwhile the mid-latitude teleconnection becomes much weaker. Warmer summer is associated with higher pressure centered over South China and the El Niño to La Niña transition phase. The higher pressure influencing South China is located more southwards after the early 1990s, and it is favored by the tropical SSTA. The warmer SST in summer over the western tropical Pacific enhances the local convection and triggers an anomalous local Hadley cell with stronger subsidence over South China, directly leading to higher pressure over South China. Moreover, the colder SST over the central-eastern Pacific induces an anomalous Walker circulation and further strengthens the convection over the western tropical Pacific, exerting an indirect impact on the higher pressure over South China. The relative role of the western Pacific warming and central-eastern Pacific cooling is verified by CAM4 simulations. The intimate relationship between the tropical SSTA and South China temperature occurs during the El Niño to La Niña transition phase, which is the case after the early 1990s and suggests higher predictability for South China temperature in the recent decades.

  12. Recent progress in the development of the general circulation and climate model of the martian atmosphere MART-ACC (United States)

    Meister, C.-V.; Hartogh, P.; Sonnemann, G.; Berger, U.; Feofilov, A.; Kutepov, A.; Elbern, H.

    The seasonal dependence of the Martian general circulation and climate is studied within a fully non-linear, global and three-dimensional hydrodynamic Eulerian gridpoint model which extends from the surface of the planet to the lower thermosphere. Therefore the dust-free pure carbon dioxide model MART-ACC which was presented by Meister et al. on the EGS-AGU-EUG Assembly in Nice 2003 was essentially improved. Especially, the parametrizations for the solar and infrared radiation transport are further developed. The seasonal and diurnal dependences of the atmospheric LTE heating rates obtained by the general circulation and climate model are also compared with rates based on the nadir temperature profiles published in the Mars Global Surveyor Data Archives distributed by the NASA Planetary Data System ( Besides, the influence of the surface albedo on the atmospheric heating is studied. Further non-LTE corrections of the heating rates at larger atmospheric altitudes are estimated and compared with results of other working groups. Basing on the calculations of the heating rates and taking into account influences of diffusion by gravity waves and molecular collisions, the temperature profiles and wind velocities of the atmosphere are obtained. Finally, first attempts to describe chemical processes are shown.

  13. Response of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation to Increased Atmospheric CO2 in a Coupled Model. (United States)

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.; Dai, Aiguo


    Changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) due to increased CO2 are important in future climate regimes. Using a coupled climate model, the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), regional responses of the THC in the North Atlantic to increased CO2 and the underlying physical processes are studied here. The Atlantic THC shows a 20-yr cycle in the control run, qualitatively agreeing with other modeling results. Compared with the control run, the simulated maximum of the Atlantic THC weakens by about 5 Sv (1 Sv 106 m3 s-1) or 14% in an ensemble of transient experiments with a 1% CO2 increase per year at the time of CO2 doubling. The weakening of the THC is accompanied by reduced poleward heat transport in the midlatitude North Atlantic. Analyses show that oceanic deep convective activity strengthens significantly in the Greenland Iceland Norway (GIN) Seas owing to a saltier (denser) upper ocean, but weakens in the Labrador Sea due to a fresher (lighter) upper ocean and in the south of the Denmark Strait region (SDSR) because of surface warming. The saltiness of the GIN Seas are mainly caused by an increased salty North Atlantic inflow, and reduced sea ice volume fluxes from the Arctic into this region. The warmer SDSR is induced by a reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, and a reduced sea ice flux into this region, resulting in less heat being used to melt ice. Thus, sea ice related salinity effects appear to be more important in the GIN Seas, but sea ice melt-related thermal effects seem to be more important in the SDSR region. On the other hand, the fresher Labrador Sea is mainly attributed to increased precipitation. These regional changes produce the overall weakening of the THC in the Labrador Sea and SDSR, and more vigorous ocean overturning in the GIN Seas. The northward heat transport south of 60°N is reduced with increased CO2, but increased north of 60°N due to the increased flow of North Atlantic water across this latitude.

  14. Hydroclimate variability and regional atmospheric circulation over the past 1,350 years reconstructed from Lake Ohau, New Zealand (United States)

    Roop, H. A.; Levy, R. H.; Vandergoes, M.; Dunbar, G. B.; Howarth, J. D.; Lorrey, A.; Phipps, S. J.


    Comprehensive understanding of natural climate-system dynamics requires high-resolution paleoclimate records extending beyond the instrumental period. This is particularly the case for the sparsely-instrumented Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, where the timing and amplitude of regional and hemispheric-scale climatic events are poorly constrained. Here we present a 1,350-year record of hydroclimatic variability and regional circulation derived from an annually laminated sediment record from Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand (44.23°S, 169.85°E). The climate of New Zealand is influenced by climatological patterns originating in both the tropics (e.g. El-Niño-Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) and the Antarctic (Southern Annular Mode, SAM). Utilizing the annually resolved Lake Ohau hydroclimate record in combination with a tree-ring record of summer temperature from Oroko Swamp, New Zealand (Cook et al., 2002), we generate a circulation index for the Western South Island of New Zealand. This index utilizes the temperature and precipitation anomalies defined by the Regional Climate Regime Classification scheme for New Zealand to assign synoptic scale circulation patterns to 25-year intervals from 900-2000 AD. This circulation index shows significant periods of change, most notably 835 - 985 AD when northerly airflow dominated and from 1385 - 1710 AD when strong southerly airflow persisted. Comparisons with regional SAM and ENSO reconstructions show that dry, warm conditions at Lake Ohau are consistently associated with strengthened tropical teleconnections to New Zealand and a positive SAM, while cold and wet conditions are driven by increased southerly airflow and negative phase SAM. A persistent negative SAM dominates the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1385-1710 AD) interval in the Western South Island. This same period coincides with the Northern Hemisphere LIA.

  15. Precipitation extremes in the wettest Mediterranean region (Krivošije) and associated atmospheric circulation types

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ducić, V; Luković, J; Burić, D; Stanojević, G; Mustafić, S


    .... The results suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased. To analyse the relationship between extreme precipitation events and circulation types we have used an efficiency coefficient (E c...

  16. AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation


    Yiou, P.


    This paper presents a stochastic weather generator based on analogues of circulation (AnaWEGE). Analogues of circulation have been a promising paradigm to analyse climate variability and its extremes. The weather generator uses precomputed analogues of sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic. The stochastic rules of the generator constrain the continuity in time of the simulations. The generator then simulates spatially coherent time series of a climate variable, drawn fr...

  17. Effect of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater export

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jahn, Alexandra; Mysak, Lawrence A. [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montreal, QC (Canada); Tremblay, Bruno [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montreal, QC (Canada); Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Newton, Robert [Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States)


    Freshwater (FW) leaves the Arctic Ocean through sea-ice export and the outflow of low-salinity upper ocean water. Whereas the variability of the sea-ice export is known to be mainly caused by changes in the local wind and the thickness of the exported sea ice, the mechanisms that regulate the variability of the liquid FW export are still under investigation. To better understand these mechanisms, we present an analysis of the variability of the liquid FW export from the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-2007, using a simulation from an energy and mass conserving global ocean-sea ice model, coupled to an Energy Moisture Balance Model of the atmosphere, and forced with daily winds from the NCEP reanalysis. Our results show that the simulated liquid FW exports through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the Fram Strait lag changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Arctic by 1 and 6 years, respectively. The variability of the liquid FW exports is caused by changes in the cyclonicity of the atmospheric forcing, which cause a FW redistribution in the Arctic through changes in Ekman transport in the Beaufort Gyre. This in turn causes changes in the sea surface height (SSH) and salinity upstream of the CAA and Fram Strait, which affect the velocity and salinity of the outflow. The SSH changes induced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation are found to explain a large part of the variance of the liquid FW export, while the local wind plays a much smaller role. We also show that during periods of increased liquid FW export from the Arctic, the strength of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced and the ocean heat transport into the Arctic is increased. These results are particularly relevant in the context of global warming, as climate simulations predict an increase in the liquid FW export from the Arctic during the twenty-first century. (orig.)

  18. How well do state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models reproduce atmospheric teleconnection patterns?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dörthe Handorf


    Full Text Available This article evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce the low-frequency variability of the mid-tropospheric winter flow of the Northern Hemisphere in terms of atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Therefore, multi-model simulations for present-day conditions, performed for the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have been analysed and compared with re-analysis data sets. The spatial patterns of atmospheric teleconnections are reproduced reasonably by most of the models. The comparison of coupled with atmosphere-only runs confirmed that a better representation of the forcing by sea surface temperatures has the potential to slightly improve the representation of only wave train-like patterns. Due to internally generated climate variability, the models are not able to reproduce the observed temporal behaviour. Insights into the dynamical reasons for the limited skill of climate models in reproducing teleconnections have been obtained by studying the relation between major teleconnections and zonal wind variability patterns. About half of the models are able to reproduce the observed relationship. For these cases, the quality of simulated teleconnection patterns is largely determined by the quality of zonal wind variability patterns. Therefore, improvements of simulated eddy-mean flow interaction have the potential to improve the atmospheric teleconnections.

  19. Atmospheric circulation leading to record breaking precipitation and floods in southern Iberia in December 1876 (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Varino, F.; Vaquero, J.; Valente, M. A.


    The first week of December 1876 was marked by extreme weather conditions that affected the south-western sector of the Iberian Peninsula (IP), leading to an all-time record flow in both large international rivers running from Spain to Portugal, Tagus and Guadiana. As a direct consequence, several towns in centre and south IP suffered serious flood damage. These catastrophic floods were amplified by the occurrence of anomalously wet October and November months, as shown by recently digitised time series for both IP countries. These events resulted from the continuous pouring of precipitation registered between 29 November and 7 December, due to the consecutive Atlantic low-pressure systems and their associated frontal systems that reached the Iberian Peninsula. Using several different data sources, such as historical newspapers of that time, meteorological data recently digitised from several stations in Portugal and Spain and the recently available 20th Century Reanalysis (Compo et al., 2011), we were able (135 years afterwards), to study in detail the damage and the atmospheric circulation conditions associated with this event. The synoptic conditions were represented by 6 hourly fields of complementary variables, namely; 1) precipitation rate and mean sea level pressure (SLP); 2) precipitation rate and CAPE; 3) wind speed intensity and divergence at 250 hPa, 4) wind speed intensity and divergence also at 850 hPa; 5) air temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential height at 500 hPa; 6) wind speed barbs and specific moisture content at 850 hPa. Movies with all these variables were obtained for the 10-day sequence that spans between 29 November and 7 December. For two recently digitised stations in Portugal (Lisbon and Évora), the values of precipitation registered during those weeks were so remarkable that when we computed daily accumulated precipitation successively from 1 to 10 days, the episode of 1876 always stood as the maximum precipitation event, with the

  20. Numerical study of the effects of local atmospheric circulations on a pollution event over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China. (United States)

    Miao, Yucong; Liu, Shuhua; Zheng, Yijia; Wang, Shu; Chen, Bicheng; Zheng, Hui; Zhao, Jingchuan


    Currently, the Chinese central government is considering plans to build a trilateral economic sphere in the Bohai Bay area, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (BTH), where haze pollution frequently occurs. To achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to understand the physical mechanism of the haze pollution there. Therefore, the pollutant transport mechanisms of a haze event over the BTH region from 23 to 24 September 2011 were studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the FLEXible-PARTicle dispersion model to understand the effects of the local atmospheric circulations and atmospheric boundary layer structure. Results suggested that the penetration by sea-breeze could strengthen the vertical dispersion by lifting up the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and carry the local pollutants to the downstream areas; in the early night, two elevated pollution layers (EPLs) may be generated over the mountain areas: the pollutants in the upper EPL at the altitude of 2-2.5 km were favored to disperse by long-range transport, while the lower EPL at the altitude of 1 km may serve as a reservoir, and the pollutants there could be transported downward and contribute to the surface air pollution. The intensity of the sea-land and mountain-valley breeze circulations played an important role in the vertical transport and distribution of pollutants. It was also found that the diurnal evolution of the PBLH is important for the vertical dispersion of the pollutants, which is strongly affected by the local atmospheric circulations and the distribution of urban areas. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. First simulation results of Titan's atmosphere dynamics with a global 3-D non-hydrostatic circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Mingalev


    Full Text Available We present the first results of a 3-D General Circulation Model of Titan's atmosphere which differs from traditional models in that the hydrostatic equation is not used and all three components of the neutral gas velocity are obtained from the numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equation. The current version of our GCM is, however, a simplified version, as it uses a predescribed temperature field in the model region thereby avoiding the complex simulation of radiative transfer based on the energy equation. We present the first simulation results and compare them to the results of existing GCMs and direct wind observations. The wind speeds obtained from our GCM correspond well with data obtained during the Huygens probe descent through Titan's atmosphere. We interpret the most unexpected feature of these data which consist of the presence of a non-monotonicity of the altitude profile of the zonal wind speed between 60 and 75 km.

  2. Rotational atmospheric circulation during North Atlantic-European winter: the influence of ENSO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Serrano, J. [UCM, Departamento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Zurita-Gotor, P.; Camara, A. de la [UCM, Departamento de Geofisica y Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain); Blade, I. [UB, Departament d' Astronomia i Meteorologia, Barcelona (Spain)


    The dominant variability modes of the North Atlantic-European rotational flow are examined by applying a principal component analysis (PCA/EOF) to the 200 hPa streamfunction mid-winter anomalies (Jan-Feb monthly means). The results reveal that, when this norm is used, the leading mode (EOF1) does not correspond to the traditional North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, which appears in our analysis as the second leading mode, EOF2) but is the local manifestation of the leading hemispheric streamfunction EOF. The regression of this regional mode onto the global SST field exhibits a clear El Nino signature, with no signal over the Atlantic, while the associated upper height anomalies resemble the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern. East of North America, this TNH-like wavetrain produces a meridional dipole-like pattern at lower levels. Although in some ways this pattern resembles the NAO (EOF2), the dynamics of these two modes are very different in that only EOF2 is associated with a latitudinal shift of the North Atlantic stormtrack. Thus, the choice of the streamfunction norm in the EOF analysis allows the separation of two different phenomena that can produce similar dipolar surface pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic but that have different impact on European climate. These two modes also differ on their contribution to variability at lower levels: while NAO-EOF2 is mostly confined to the North Atlantic, TNH-EOF1 has a more annular, global character. At upper levels NAO-EOF2 also produces a global pattern but with no annular structure, reminiscent of the ''circumglobal'' teleconnection. (orig.)

  3. Simulating organic species with the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1: a comparison of model results with observation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pozzer, A.; Jöckel, P.; Tost, H.; Sander, R.; Ganzeveld, L.N.; Kerkweg, A.; Lelieveld, J.


    The atmospheric-chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 is evaluated with observations of different organic ozone precursors. This study continues a prior analysis which focused primarily on the representation of atmospheric dynamics and ozone. We use the results of the same reference

  4. Variations of Younger Dryas atmospheric radiocarbon explicable without ocean circulation changes (United States)

    Goslar; Arnold; Tisnerat-Laborde; Czernik; Wieckowski


    The concentration of radiocarbon, 14C, in the atmosphere depends on its production rate by cosmic rays, and on the intensity of carbon exchange between the atmosphere and other reservoirs, for example the deep oceans. For the Holocene (the past approximately 11,500 years), it has been shown that fluctuations in atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations have been caused mostly by variations in the solar magnetic field. Recent progress in extending the radiocarbon record backwards in time has indicated especially high atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations in the Younger Dryas cold period, between 12,700 and 11,500 years before the present. These high concentrations have been interpreted as a result of a reduced exchange with the deep-ocean reservoir, caused by a drastic weakening of the deep-ocean ventilation. Here we present a high-resolution reconstruction of atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations, derived from annually laminated sediments of two Polish lakes, Lake Gosciaz and Lake Perespilno. These records indicate that the maximum in atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations in the early Younger Dryas was smaller than previously believed, and might have been caused by variations in solar activity. If so, there is no indication that the deep-ocean ventilation in the Younger Dryas was significantly different from today's.

  5. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the intensity of urban heat island and urban cold island in Poznań, Poland (United States)

    Półrolniczak, Marek; Kolendowicz, Leszek; Majkowska, Agnieszka; Czernecki, Bartosz


    The study has analyzed influence of an atmospheric circulation on urban heat island (UHI) and urban cold island (UCI) in Poznań. Analysis was conducted on the basis of temperature data from two measurement points situated in the city center and in the Ławica airport (reference station) and the data concerning the air circulation (Niedźwiedź's calendar of circulation types and reanalysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)). The cases with UHI constitute about 85 % of all data, and UCI phenomena appear with a frequency of 14 % a year. The intensity of UHI phenomenon is higher in the anticyclonic circulation types. During the year in anticyclonic circulation, intensity of UHI is 1.2 °C on average while in cyclonic is only 0.8 °C. The occurring of UHI phenomena is possible throughout all seasons of the year in all hours of the day usually in anticyclonic circulation types. The cases with highest UHI intensity are related mostly to nighttime. The cases of UCI phenomena occurred almost ever on the daytime and the most frequently in colder part of the year together with cyclonic circulation. Study based on reanalysis data indicates that days with large intensity of UHI (above 4, 5, and 6 °C) are related to anticyclonic circulation. Anticyclonic circulation is also promoting the formation of the strongest UCI. Results based on both reanalysis and the atmospheric circulation data (Niedźwiedź's circulation type) confirm that cases with the strongest UHI and UCI during the same day occur in strong high-pressure system with the center situated above Poland or central Europe.

  6. Possible influence of atmospheric circulations on winter haze pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zhang


    Full Text Available Using the daily records derived from the synoptic weather stations and the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the variability of the winter haze pollution (indicated by the mean visibility and number of hazy days in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH region during the period 1981 to 2015 and its relationship with the atmospheric circulations at middle–high latitude were analyzed in this study. The winter haze pollution in BTH had distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities without a significant long-term trend. According to the spatial distribution of correlation coefficients, six atmospheric circulation indices (I1 to I6 were defined from the key areas in sea level pressure (SLP, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (U850, V850, geopotential height field at 500 hPa (H500, zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200, and air temperature at 200 hPa (T200, respectively. All of the six indices have significant and stable correlations with the winter visibility and number of hazy days in BTH. In the raw (unfiltered correlations, the correlation coefficients between the six indices and the winter visibility (number of hazy days varied from 0.57 (0.47 to 0.76 (0.6 with an average of 0.65 (0.54; in the high-frequency ( < 10 years correlations, the coefficients varied from 0.62 (0.58 to 0.8 (0.69 with an average of 0.69 (0.64. The six circulation indices together can explain 77.7 % (78.7 % and 61.7 % (69.1 % variances of the winter visibility and the number of hazy days in the year-to-year (inter-annual variability, respectively. The increase in Ic (a comprehensive index derived from the six individual circulation indices can cause a shallowing of the East Asian trough at the middle troposphere and a weakening of the Siberian high-pressure field at sea level, and is then accompanied by a reduction (increase of horizontal advection and vertical convection (relative humidity in the lowest troposphere and a reduced boundary layer

  7. Stable isotopic evidence of El Niño-like atmospheric circulation in the Pliocene western United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Winnick


    Full Text Available Understanding how the hydrologic cycle has responded to warmer global temperatures in the past is especially important today as concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere continue to increase due to human activities. The Pliocene offers an ideal window into a climate system that has equilibrated with current atmospheric pCO2. During the Pliocene the western United States was wetter than modern, an observation at odds with our current understanding of future warming scenarios, which involve the expansion and poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Here we compare Pliocene oxygen isotope profiles of pedogenic carbonates across the western US to modern isotopic anomalies in precipitation between phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO. We find that when accounting for seasonality of carbonate formation, isotopic changes through the late Pliocene match modern precipitation isotopic anomalies in El Niño years. Furthermore, isotopic shifts through the late Pliocene mirror changes through the early Pleistocene, which likely represents the southward migration of the westerly storm track caused by growth of the Laurentide ice sheet. We propose that the westerly storm track migrated northward through the late Pliocene with the development of the modern cold tongue in the east equatorial Pacific, then returned southward with widespread glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere – a scenario supported by terrestrial climate proxies across the US. Together these data support the proposed existence of background El Niño-like conditions in western North America during the warm Pliocene. If the earth behaves similarly with future warming, this observation has important implications with regard to the amount and distribution of precipitation in western North America.

  8. Early Holocene Change in Atmospheric Circulation in the North-Central USA (United States)

    Dean, W. E.


    Numerous proxies in cores from Elk Lake, northwestern Minnesota, have provided a record of climatic and environmental change with annual resolution for the last 10,000 years. The proxies that allow reconstruction of the lake's physical and chemical paleolimnology (diatoms, redox-sensitive trace metals, and 18O values) show that that prior to about 8.2 cal ka the lake was a stable, dimictic lake that was strongly stratified. The same proxies show that after 8.2 cal. ka the lake was turbulent, well-mixed and shallower. The proxies that are related to climate factors external to the lake (dust as % Al and % Si, varve thickness, and pollen) show that prior to 8.2 cal. ka the lake was receiving relatively little dust, implying little wind activity. After 8.2 cal ka, there was a marked increase in the influx of dust indicating an increase in westerly winds. Lastly, the ostracode faunal assemblages, which provide information about the limnology and watershed characteristics, indicate that, for 1000 years prior to 8.2 cal. ka, the lake was stable and dilute with characteristics typical of lakes in boreal forests. At 8.2 cal. ka, the ostracode assemblage abruptly shifted to an assemblage typical of Canadian prairie lakes that exhibit large seasonal variability in physical characteristics. This marks the northward displacement of the polar front and beginning of westerlies. The Elk Lake record further shows that the so-called 8.2 cal. yr cold event, recognized in ice-core and other records from the circum-North Atlantic, and thought by some to be caused by catastrophic drainage of freshwater from proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, was but a brief manifestation of a more fundamental and lasting change in the climate of North America. This fundamental climate change was the result of changes in atmospheric circulation in response to marked changes in the relative proportions of land, water, and, especially, glacial ice in North America during the early Holocene, the

  9. Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Antonsson


    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

  10. Variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices for the northern hemisphere during the past 100 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broennimann, Stefan; Stickler, Alexander [Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Griesser, Thomas; Fischer, Andreas M.; Grant, Andrea; Ewen, Tracy; Zhou Tianjun; Schraner, Martin; Peter, Thomas [LASG, Inst. of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ (China); Rozanov, Eugene [Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland); PMOD/WRC, Davos (Switzerland)


    We present an analysis of the large-scale atmospheric circulation variability since 1900 based on various circulation indices. They represent the main features of the zonal mean circulation in the northern hemisphere in boreal winter (such as the Hadley circulation, the subtropical jet, and the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere) as well as aspects of the regional and large-scale circulation (the Pacific Walker Circulation, the Indian monsoon, the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and the Pacific North American pattern, PNA). For the past decades we calculate the indices from different reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, JRA-25, ERA-Interim). For the first half of the 20{sup th} century the indices are statistically reconstructed based on historical upper-air and surface data as well as calculated from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. The indices from all these observation-based data sets are compared to indices calculated from a 9-member ensemble of ''all forcings'' simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL. After discussing the agreement among different data products, we analyse the interannual-to-decadal variability of the indices in the context of possible driving factors, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic eruptions, and solar activity. The interannual variability of the Hadley cell strength, the subtropical jet strength, or the PNA is well reproduced by the model ensemble mean, i.e., it is predictable in the context of the specified forcings. The source of this predictability is mainly related to ENSO (or more generally, tropical sea-surface temperatures). For other indices such as the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, the NAO, or the poleward extent of the Hadley cell the correlations between observations and model ensemble mean are much lower, but so are the correlations within the model ensemble. Multidecadal variability and trends in the individual series are discussed in the context of

  11. Atmospheric circulation changes and neoglacial conditions in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: insights from PMIP2 simulations at 6 kyr

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rojas, Maisa [University of Chile, Department of Geophysics, Santiago (Chile); Moreno, Patricio I. [University of Chile, Department of Ecology, Santiago (Chile)


    Glacial geologic studies in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes (40-54 S) indicate renewed glacial activity in southern South America (Patagonia) and New Zealand's (NZ) South Island starting at {proportional_to}7 kyr, the so-called neoglaciation. Available data indicate that neoglacial advances in these regions occurred during a rising trend in atmospheric CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} concentrations, lower-than-present but increasing summer insolation and seasonality contrasts. In this paper we examine the climatological context in which neoglaciations occurred through analysis of the complete Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP2) database of simulations at 6 kyr for the SH. We observe that the amplitude of the annual insolation cycle in the SH did not change significantly at 6 kyr compared to the pre-industrial values, the largest difference occurring in autumn (MAM, negative anomalies) and spring (SON, positive anomalies). The simulated changes in temperatures over the SH respond to the insolation changes, with a 1-2 month delay over the oceans. This results in a reduced amplitude of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over most continental regions, except over Patagonia and NZ, that show a slight increase. In contrast, large-scale circulation features, such as the low and upper level winds and the subtropical anticyclones show an amplified annual cycle, as a direct response to the increased/decreased insolation during the transitional seasons SON/MAM. In the annual mean, there is a small but consistent equatorward shift of the latitude of maximum wind speed of 1-3 over the entire SH, which results in a small increase of wind speed over the South Pacific and Atlantic Oceans north of {proportional_to}50 S and a widespread decline south of 50 S. PMIP2 simulations for 6 kyr, indicate that in the annual mean, the SH mid-latitudes were colder, wetter and with stronger winds north of about 50 S. These conditions are consistent

  12. Nucla circulating atmospheric fluidized bed demonstration project. Quarterly technical progress report, October--December 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)


    During the fourth quarter of 1990, steady-state performance testing at the Nucla Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) resumed under sponsorship of the US Department of Energy. Co-sponsorship of the Demonstration Test Program by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was completed on June 15, 1990. From October through December, 1990, Colorado-Ute Electric Association (CUEA) completed a total of 23 steady-state performance tests, 4 dynamic tests, and set operating records during November and December as the result of improved unit operating reliability. Highlight events and achievements during this period of operation are presented.

  13. Relationship between atmospheric circulation weather types and seasonal precipitation in Serbia (United States)

    Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana


    An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was used to classify daily circulation types over Serbia. The synoptic characteristics of 26 weather types and their relative frequencies are discussed for spring and autumn, complementing research previously published by Putniković et al. (Meteorol Atmos Phys 128:649-662, 2016) for winter and summer. Trends of the circulation types are presented, as well as precipitation trends during the period 1961-2010. Precipitation was modeled by the stepwise regression at six stations, defining weather types as independent variables. The anticyclonic (A) type is the most frequent class occurring in autumn (23.87%), displaying a positive trend for spring and significant negative trend for autumn. The frequencies of anticyclonic and cyclonic (C) types are almost the same for spring: 14.33 and 14.02%, respectively. The C type shows a significant negative trend only in spring. The increasing trend of the frequency of the C types and decreasing trend of the A types are in agreement with the increasing trend of precipitation in Serbia during autumn. Results suggest that the C type affects precipitation occurrence over most of the country, while the remaining 25 types provide more negligible or regional contributions to precipitation.

  14. Easy Aerosol - Robust and non-robust circulation responses to aerosol radiative forcing in comprehensive atmosphere models (United States)

    Voigt, Aiko; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Boucher, Olivier; Medeiros, Brian; Pincus, Robert; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Kai; Lewinschal, Anna; Bellouin, Nicolas; Yang, Young-Min


    A number of recent studies illustrated the potential of aerosols to change the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. It remains unclear, however, to what extent the proposed aerosol-induced changes reflect robust model behavior or are affected by uncertainties in the models' treatment of parametrized physical processes, such as those related to clouds. "Easy Aerosol", a model-intercomparison project organized within the Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity of the World Climate Research Programme, addresses this question by subjecting a suite of comprehensive atmosphere general circulation models with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) to the same set of idealized "easy" aerosol perturbations. This contribution discusses the aerosol perturbations as well as their impact on the model's precipitation and surface winds. The aerosol perturbations are designed based on a global aerosol climatology and mimic the gravest mode of the anthropogenic aerosol. Specifically, the meridional and zonal distributions of total aerosol optical depth are approximated by a superposition of Gaussian plumes; the vertical distribution is taken as constant within the lowest 1250m of the atmosphere followed by an exponential decay with height above. The aerosol both scatters and absorbs shortwave radiation, but in order to focus on direct radiative effects aerosol-cloud interactions are omitted. Each model contributes seven simulations. A clean control case with no aerosol-radiative effects at all is compared to six perturbed simulations with differing aerosol loading, zonal aerosol distributions, and SSTs. To estimate the role of natural variability, one of the models, MPI-ESM, contributes a 5-member ensemble for each simulation. If the observed SSTs from years 1979-2005 are prescribed, the aerosol leads to a local depression of precipitation at the Northern Hemisphere center of the aerosol and a northward shift of the

  15. Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features


    Pfahl, S.


    Extreme weather events in Europe are closely linked to anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and in particular to circulation features like cyclones and atmospheric blocking. In this study, this linkage is systematically characterised with the help of conditional cyclone and blocking frequencies during precipitation, wind gust and temperature extremes at various locations in Europe. Such conditional frequency fields can serve as a dynamical fingerprint of ...

  16. Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features


    Pfahl, S.


    Extreme weather events in Europe are closely linked to anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and in particular to circulation features like cyclones and atmospheric blocking. In this study, this linkage is systematically characterised with the help of conditional cyclone and blocking frequencies during precipitation, wind gust and temperature extremes at various locations in Europe. Such conditional frequency fields can serve as a dynamical fingerprint of the extreme even...

  17. Changes in Central European Soil Moisture Availability and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns between 1875 and 2005 - Regional Climate Change in Progress? (United States)

    Trnka, M.; Kysely, J.; Dubrovsky, M.; Mozny, M.; Hostynek, J.; Svoboda, M.; Hayes, M. J.; Zalud, Z.


    Relationships between the soil moisture availability and the atmospheric circulation in Central Europe were analyzed for the period 1881-2005. The analysis was based on the Hess-Brezowsky catalogue of circulation types (CTs), and a series of weekly self-calibrated Palmer Z-index (scZ-index) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) values at seven stations where high-quality daily data has recently become available. The results show that the large-scale droughts during spring months (MAM) were associated with east (E), south (S), and south- east (SE) circulation types, whereas during summer (JJA) and the whole vegetation season, i.e., April-September (VEG), the Central Europe high pressure systems (HM) and east (E) circulation types were conducive to drought. Statistically significant drying trends were noted at a majority of the stations, especially during MAM and JJA, over the whole period for which the scPDSI and scZ-index series were available (1875-2005). Although almost no statistically significant tendencies were found prior to 1940, a significant tendency towards more intense drought was present at all sites after this year. The largest drying trend was noted during the VEG and AMJ seasons. The overall drying trend might be associated with shifts in the frequency of CTs, especially during AMJ. Although the aggregate frequency of occurrence of drought-conducive CTs (i.e. E, S and HM) remained stable at approximately 30% up to the 1940s, a steady increase to the present 55% frequency is observed afterwards. Higher frequencies of S and HM types drove the observed increase of drought-conducive CTs at the expense of N types that are associated with wet conditions. The long-term shifts in the frequency of circulation types conducive to drought explain more than 50% of the long-term variations of both scZ-index and PDSI values over the territory of the Czech Republic, and they are likely to affect whole central European region as well. Acknowledgement: This study

  18. The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation (United States)

    Marshall, Gareth J.; Thompson, David W. J.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.


    We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high-latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled-climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone.

  19. Snow and cloud feedbacks modelled by an atmospheric general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colman, R.A.; McAvaney, B.J.; Fraser, J.R. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Victoria (Austria)] [and others


    One of the most important parametrizations in general circulation models used for climate change experiments is that of the surface albedo. The results an albedo feedback experiment carried out under the auspices of the US Department of Energy are presented. An analysis of long and short wave components of the model response shows that short wave response dominates changes in fixed to variable albedo experiments, but that long wave response dominates in clear to cloudy sky changes. Cloud distribution chances are also discussed and are related to changes in global sensitivity. At the surface, the heat balance change for perturbed sea surface temperatures is dominated by changes in latent heat flux and downward long wave radiation. If albedo is freed up however, the major contrast lies in the change in surface reflected short wave radiation, amplified by changes in downward short wave radiation caused by cloud amount changes. 14 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  20. Common Era Hydroclimate and Atmospheric Circulation in the Western Mediterranean Basin (United States)

    Touchan, R.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Shishov, V. V.; Kherchouche, D.; Slimani, S.; Ilmen, R.; Hasnaoui, F.; Guibal, F.; Camarero, J. J.; Salguero, R. S.; Piermattei, A.; Sesbou, A.; Meko, D. M.; Cook, B. I.; Sabir, M.


    Drought phenomenon in the Mediterranean Basin, including North Africa and the western Mediterranean, has an impact on all segments of society and all economic sectors. To understand contemporary patterns and causes of drought in these regions, it is necessary to understand natural climate variability over the Common Era. Here, we use a network of tree-ring proxies spanning up to a millennium to understand and reconstruct both large-scale Atlantic circulation changes and regional hydroclimate. Eighty-five chronologies across the region show a variable but coherent response to winter-spring precipitation mediated by geography and topography. Reconstructions using this network of spatiotemporal drought variability as well as a new reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation put the past, present, and future climate variability of the region into a long-term Common Era context.

  1. Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns (United States)

    Fleming, Sean W.; Hood, Eran; Dalhke, Helen; O'Neel, Shad


    The northern portion of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) is one of the least anthropogenically modified regions on earth and remains in many respects a frontier area to science. Rivers crossing the northern PCTR, which is also an international boundary region between British Columbia, Canada and Alaska, USA, deliver large freshwater and biogeochemical fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and establish linkages between coastal and continental ecosystems. We evaluate interannual flow variability in three transboundary PCTR watersheds in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Historical hydroclimatic datasets from both Canada and the USA are analyzed using an up-to-date methodological suite accommodating both seasonally transient and highly nonlinear teleconnections. We find that streamflow teleconnections occur over particular seasonal windows reflecting the intersection of specific atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic processes. The strongest signal is a snowmelt-driven flow timing shift resulting from ENSO- and PDO-associated temperature anomalies. Autumn rainfall runoff is also modulated by these climate modes, and a glacier-mediated teleconnection contributes to a late-summer ENSO-flow association. Teleconnections between AO and freshet flows reflect corresponding temperature and precipitation anomalies. A coherent NPGO signal is not clearly evident in streamflow. Linear and monotonically nonlinear teleconnections were widely identified, with less evidence for the parabolic effects that can play an important role elsewhere. The streamflow teleconnections did not vary greatly between hydrometric stations, presumably reflecting broad similarities in watershed characteristics. These results establish a regional foundation for both transboundary water management and studies of long-term hydroclimatic and environmental change.

  2. Impact of atmospheric convection on south Tibet summer precipitation isotopologue composition using a combination of in situ measurements, satellite data, and atmospheric general circulation modeling (United States)

    He, You; Risi, Camille; Gao, Jing; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Yao, Tandong; Lai, Chun-Ta; Ding, Yongjian; Worden, John; Frankenberg, Christian; Chepfer, Helene; Cesana, Gregory


    Precipitation isotopologues recorded in natural archives from the southern Tibetan Plateau may document past variations of Indian monsoon intensity. The exact processes controlling the variability of precipitation isotopologue composition must therefore first be deciphered and understood. This study investigates how atmospheric convection affects the summer variability of δ18O in precipitation (δ18Op) and δD in water vapor (δDv) at the daily scale. This is achieved using isotopic data from precipitation samples at Lhasa, isotopic measurements of water vapor retrieved from satellites (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), GOSAT) and atmospheric general circulation modeling. We reveal that both δ18Op and δDv at Lhasa are well correlated with upstream convective activity, especially above northern India. First, during days of strong convection, northern India surface air contains large amounts of vapor with relatively low δDv. Second, when this low-δDv moisture is uplifted toward southern Tibet, this initial depletion in HDO is further amplified by Rayleigh distillation as the vapor moves over the Himalayan. The intraseasonal variability of the isotopologue composition of vapor and precipitation over the southern Tibetan Plateau results from these processes occurring during air mass transportation.

  3. "New Climate" Warmed, "New Atmospheric Circulation" and "Extreme" Meteorological Phenomena associated with El Niño 2015-2016 (United States)

    Karrouk, M. S.


    Cumulating ocean-atmospheric thermal energy caused by global warming has resulted in the reversal of the energy balance towards the poles. This situation is characterized by a new ocean-continental thermal distribution: over the ocean, the balance is more in excess than in the mainland, if not the opposite when the balance is negative inland.Thanks to satellite observation and daily monitoring of meteorological conditions for more than ten years, we have observed that the positive balance has shifted more towards the poles, mainly in the northern hemisphere. Subtropical anticyclones are strengthened and have extended to high latitudes, especially over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This situation creates global peaks strengthened in winter periods, and imposes on cosmic cold the deep advection toward the south under the form of planetary valleys "Polar Vortex".This situation imposes on the jet stream a pronounced ripple and installs a meridional atmospheric circulation in winter, which brings the warm tropical air masses to reach the Arctic Circle, and cold polar air masses to reach North Africa and Florida.This situation creates unusual atmospheric events, characterized by hydrothermal "extreme" conditions: excessive heat at high latitudes, accompanied by heavy rains and floods, as well as cold at low latitudes and the appearance of snow in the Sahara!The populations are profoundly influenced by the new phenomena. The socioeconomic infrastructures can no longer assume their basic functions and man when unprotected is weak and hence the advanced vulnerability of all the regions especially those belonging to poor and developing countriesRecent studies have shown that global and regional climate system is affected by extreme events of El Niño. Statistical and dynamic links have been confirmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe; hence the importance of the fall situation and winter 2015-2016.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" warmed

  4. Dynamic changes in temperature extremes and their association with atmospheric circulation patterns in the Songhua River Basin, China (United States)

    Zhong, Keyuan; Zheng, Fenli; Wu, Hongyan; Qin, Chao; Xu, Ximeng


    Understanding dynamic changes in climate extremes is important in forecasting extreme climate events and reducing their associated impacts. The objectives of this study were to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in temperature extremes and their association with atmospheric circulation, based on daily maximum (TX) and minimum temperatures (TN) collected from 60 meteorological stations in the Songhua River Basin (SRB) and its surroundings from 1960 to 2014. Following the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices), eight extreme temperature indices, including three warm indices, three cold indices and two extreme indices, were chosen to quantify temperature extremes. The Mann-Kendall method and linear trend analysis were used to examine the trends, and Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between the temperature extremes and each atmospheric circulation. The results showed that warm indices, including the number of warm nights, warm days, and summer days, and extreme indices, including minimum TN and maximum TX, showed increasing trends in the SRB from 1960 to 2014. On the other hand, cold indices, including the number of cold nights, cold days and frost days, showed decreasing trends; Warm indices and maximum TX showed significant positive correlations with latitude (P < 0.01). The Arctic Oscillation index (AO) displayed significant negative correlations with the cold indices (P < 0.01) and positive correlations with the warm indices. The warm indices and extreme indices had positive correlations with the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High area and intensity indices, while the reverse relationship was found between the cold indices and Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High. The Asia polar vortex area and intensity indices showed negative correlations with warm indices and extreme indices, while they were positively correlated to cold indices. The multivariate ENSO index (MEI) showed no linear correlation with any of

  5. Atmospheric Circulation of Hot Jupiters: Three-dimensional Circulation Models of HD 209458b and HD 189733b with Simplified Forcing (United States)

    Showman, Adam P.; Cooper, Curtis S.; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Marley, Mark S.


    We present global, three-dimensional numerical simulations of the atmospheric circulation on HD 209458b and HD 189733b and calculate the infrared spectra and light curves predicted by these simulations, which we compare with available observations. Radiative heating/cooling is parameterized with a simplified Newtonian relaxation scheme. Our simulations develop day-night temperature contrasts that vary strongly with pressure. At low pressure (poles. At deeper levels, the flow develops an eastward equatorial jet with speeds of 3-4 km s-1, with weaker westward flows at high latitudes. This basic flow pattern is robust to variations in model resolution, gravity, radiative time constant, and initial temperature structure. Nightside spectra show deep absorption bands of H2O, CO, and/or CH4, whereas on the dayside these absorption bands flatten out or even flip into emission. This results from the strong effect of dynamics on the vertical temperature-pressure structure; the temperature decreases strongly with altitude on the nightside but becomes almost isothermal on the dayside. In Spitzer bandpasses, our predicted planet-to-star flux ratios vary by a factor of ~2-10 with orbital phase, depending on the wavelength and chemistry. For HD 189733b, where a detailed 8 μm light curve has been obtained, we correctly produce the observed phase offset of the flux maximum, but we do not explain the flux minimum and we overpredict the total flux variation. This discrepancy likely results from the simplifications inherent in the Newtonian relaxation scheme and provides motivation for incorporating realistic radiative transfer in future studies.

  6. The history and transitent nature of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea from advanced reanalysis (United States)

    Pinardi, Nadia; Fratianni, Claudia; Lyubartsev, Vladyslav


    Long term, high resolution re-analyses of the Mediterranean Sea circulation and thermohaline structure are now available from the NextData and MyOcean projects. The first is a 60 years re-analysis (1953-2012) done with atmospheric AMIP forcing and the second is 25 years re-analysis (1987-2012) done with ECMWF atmospheric forcing re-analysis. Both concur to have a representation of the longest time series of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea, the highest space-time reconstruction ever done for the whole basin. The salinity anomalies of the Mediterranean Sea below seven hundred meters of the past 60 years are examined in comparison with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, a phenomenon Dr. A.Hecht contributed to discover during POEM. Deep water salinity changes and Gibraltar Strait anomalies are also examined in the light of possible feedback mechanisms, as well as the structure and correlation of such salinity anomalies with atmospheric forcing.

  7. Synoptic patterns of atmospheric circulation associated with intense precipitation events over the Brazilian Amazon (United States)

    Santos, Eliane Barbosa; Lucio, Paulo Sérgio; Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés


    The objective of this study is to characterize the atmospheric patterns associated with the occurrence of intense precipitation events (IPE) in different sub-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. Intense rainfall cases over six sub-regions were selected from a precipitation data set for the period from 1983 to 2012. The composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. In the south of the Amazon, the composition fields showed a favorable configuration for the formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Along the coast, the intense precipitation events must be associated with mesoscale systems, such as squall lines. In the northwest, they are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and/or local convection. The results reveal the complexity of the synoptic environment associated with the formation and development of weather systems that produce heavy rainfall in the Amazon Basin. Several factors can interfere as conditions in large-scale, local conditions and thermodynamic factors.

  8. The role of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and biological sequestration on atmospheric CO2 uptake during the last deglaciation (CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture) (United States)

    Muschitiello, Francesco; D'Andrea, William J.; Dokken, Trond M.; Schmittner, Andreas


    Understanding the impact of ocean circulation on the global atmospheric CO2 budget is of paramount importance for anticipating the consequences of projected future changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In particular, the efficiency of the oceanic biological pump can impact atmospheric CO2 through changes in vertical carbon export mediated by variations in the nutrient inventory of the North Atlantic basin. However, the causal relationship between North Atlantic Ocean circulation, biological carbon sequestration, and atmospheric CO2 is poorly understood. Here we present new high-resolution planktic-benthic 14C data and biomarker records from an exceptionally well-dated marine core from the Nordic Seas spanning the last deglaciation ( 15,000-10,000 years BP). The records document for the first time large and rapid atmospheric CO2 drawdowns and increase in plankton stocks during major North Atlantic cooling events. Using transient climate simulations from a fully coupled climate-biosphere model, we show that minor perturbations of the North Atlantic biological pump resulting from surface freshening and AMOC weakening can have a major impact on the global atmospheric CO2 budget. Furthermore, our data help clarifying the timing and magnitude of the deglacial CO2 signal recorded in Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that the global CO2 budget is more sensitive to perturbations in North Atlantic circulation than previously thought, which has significance in the future debate of the AMOC response to anthropogenic warming.

  9. Experimental study of thermo-hydraulic characteristics of natural circulation loop at water and FC-72 boiling under atmospheric pressure (United States)

    Kaban’kov, O. N.; Sukomel, L. A.; Zubov, N. O.; Yagov, V. V.


    The results of experimental study of thermo and hydraulic characteristics of flow boiling of water and FC-72 in natural circulation loop under atmospheric pressure are presented. The experimental data have been obtained in the range of wall heat flux densities (6 – 70) kW/m2 for water and (4.6 – 30) kW/m2 for FC-72. These two liquids differ substantially in thermophysical properties so it makes it possible to extend the range of reduced pressures almost for an order of magnitude without changing the technical parameters of experimental setup. An additional information for the analysis of flow pattern influence on onset of instability and unstable circulation mechanism have been obtained as the result. The flow up tube of the loop had inner diameter 9.1 mm and consisted of two section – heated one 98 diameters length (that is 65 % of total tube length) and upper adiabatic section with length 48 diameters. Different circulation regimes were realized in experiments: mixed regimes with single phase and boiling zones in the heated part of the tube and boiling regimes along the full length of the heated section. The experimental data on circulation velocity (flow rate) and wall temperature distributions (including pulsating components of temperature and velocity) are presented in dependence on wall heat flux density and liquid subcooling at the inlet to the heated zone. At water experiments autooscillating regimes of boiling flows were observed within the whole range of inlet liquid subcoolings up to saturation temperature and at all wall heat flux densities from lowest one (10 kW/m2) to somewhat upper limiting value of 64 kW/m2. At higher heat fluxes the two-phase boiling flow was stable not only in saturation inlet liquid temperature but also at low subcoolings. In FC-72 experiments the flow was stable at all realized heat flux densities within the range of inlet liquid subcoolings (2 – 20) °C.

  10. Sensitivity of the climate response of an atmospheric general circulation model to changes in convective parameterization and horizontal resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colman, R.A.; Mcavaney, B.J. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne (Australia)


    Three equilibrium doubled CO2 experiments have been performed using the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre atmospheric general circulation model. These experiments used identical versions of the model, apart from changes in the convective parameterization and the horizontal resolution. The penetrative convection parameterizations used were variants of the Tiedtke (1989) mass flux and Kuo (1974) schemes. The shallow convection was also varied in strength. In the control climate the mass flux scheme produces a warmer, moister troposphere, with substantially more high cloud than the Kuo scheme. The precipitation distributions agree reasonably with observations overall, although the mass flux scheme gives improvements in some regions. The increase in resolution is generally found to have a smaller impact upon the climate than the change in convection. Under a doubling of atmospheric CO2, the equilibrium responses of all three experiments were extremely similar in surface and tropospheric temperatures and humidity changes. The model response is at the low end of the scale of simulated climate change, consistent with a strong negative feedback found due to clouds. This feedback is similar to that found in earlier fixed season experiments. It appears to be insensitive to differences in cloud cover simulated in the control climates of the present experiments.

  11. Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voigt, Aiko [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg (Germany); Abbot, Dorian S.; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T. [Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Marotzke, Jochem [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)


    The apparent existence of low-latitude land glaciers at sea level during the Marinoan ({proportional_to}635 Ma) has led to the proposal that these glaciations were accompanied by completely ice-covered oceans. These states have become popular under the term ''Snowball Earth.'' In this contribution, we study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth with the most sophisticated model ever used for this purpose, the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. In particular, we focus on the total solar irradiance and atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide needed to trigger a Marinoan Snowball Earth. We find that Snowball initiation in this model is much easier than found in various previous modelling studies. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a ''slushball'' solution, with the caveat that mountains are not included in our study.

  12. Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe


    The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

  13. First simulation results of Titan's atmosphere dynamics with a global 3-D non-hydrostatic circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Mingalev


    Full Text Available We present the first results of a 3-D General Circulation Model of Titan's atmosphere which differs from traditional models in that the hydrostatic equation is not used and all three components of the neutral gas velocity are obtained from the numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equation. The current version of our GCM is, however, a simplified version, as it uses a predescribed temperature field in the model region thereby avoiding the complex simulation of radiative transfer based on the energy equation. We present the first simulation results and compare them to the results of existing GCMs and direct wind observations. The wind speeds obtained from our GCM correspond well with data obtained during the Huygens probe descent through Titan's atmosphere. We interpret the most unexpected feature of these data which consist of the presence of a non-monotonicity of the altitude profile of the zonal wind speed between 60 and 75 km.

  14. Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review (United States)

    Budikova, Dagmar


    Formed by the freezing of sea water, sea ice defines the character of the marine Arctic. The principal purpose of this review is to synthesize the published efforts that document the potential impact of Arctic sea ice on remote climates. The emphasis is on atmospheric processes and the resulting modifications in surface conditions such as air temperature, precipitation patterns, and storm track behavior at interannual timescales across the middle and low latitudes of the Northern hemisphere during cool months. Addressed also are the theoretical, methodological, and logistical challenges facing the current observational and modeling studies that aim to improve our awareness of the role that Arctic sea ice plays in the definition of global climate. Moving towards an improved understanding of the role that polar sea ice plays in shaping the global climate is a subject of timely importance as the Arctic environment is currently undergoing rapid change with little slowing down forecasted for the future.

  15. Some lessons and thoughts from development of an old-fashioned high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (United States)

    Ohfuchi, Wataru; Enomoto, Takeshi; Yoshioka, Mayumi K.; Takaya, Koutarou


    Some high-resolution simulations with a conventional atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were conducted right after the first Earth Simulator started operating in the spring of 2002. More simulations with various resolutions followed. The AGCM in this study, AFES (Agcm For the Earth Simulator), is a primitive equation spectral transform method model with a cumulus convection parameterization. In this presentation, some findings from comparisons between high and low-resolution simulations, and some future perspectives of old-fashioned AGCMs will be discussed. One obvious advantage of increasing resolution is capability of resolving the fine structures of topography and atmospheric flow. By increasing resolution from T39 (about 320 km horizontal grid interval) to T79 (160 km), to T159 (80 km) to T319 (40 km), topographic precipitation over Japan becomes increasingly realistic. This feature is necessary for climate and weather studies involving both global and local aspects. In order to resolve submesoscale (about 100 km horizontal scale) atmospheric circulation, about 10-km grid interval is necessary. Comparing T1279 (10 km) simulations with T319 ones, it is found that, for example, the intensity of heavy rain associated with Baiu front and the central pressure of typhoon become more realistic. These realistic submesoscale phenomena should have impact on larger-sale flow through dynamics and thermodynamics. An interesting finding by increasing horizontal resolution of a conventional AGCM is that some cumulus convection parameterizations, such as Arakawa-Schubert type scheme, gradually stop producing precipitation, while some others, such as Emanuel type, do not. With the former, the grid condensation increases with the model resolution to compensate. Which characteristics are more desirable is arguable but it is an important feature one has to consider when developing a high-resolution conventional AGCM. Many may think that conventional primitive equation

  16. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model


    G. Lammel; I. Stemmler


    PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

  17. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model


    G. Lammel; I. Stemmler


    PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

  18. Impact of absorbing aerosols on the simulation of climate over the Indian region in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chakraborty


    Full Text Available The impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (such as soot on the climate over the Indian region has been studied using the NCMRWF general circulation model. The absorbing aerosols increase shortwave radiative heating of the lower troposphere and reduce the heating at the surface. These effects have been incorporated as heating of the lower troposphere (up to 700hPa and cooling over the continental surface based on INDOEX measurements. The heating effect is constant in the pre-monsoon season and reduces to zero during the monsoon season. It is shown that even in the monsoon season when the aerosol forcing is zero, there is an overall increase in rainfall and a reduction in surface temperature over the Indian region. The rainfall averaged over the Tropics shows a small reduction in most of the months during the January to September period. The impact of aerosol forcing, the model's sensitivity to this forcing and its interaction with model-physics has been studied by changing the cumulus parameterization from the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS scheme to the Kuo scheme. During the pre-monsoon season the major changes in precipitation occur in the oceanic Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ, where both the schemes show an increase in precipitation. This result is similar to that reported in Chung2002. On the other hand, during the monsoon season the changes in precipitation in the continental region are different in the SAS and Kuo schemes. It is shown that the heating due to absorbing aerosols changes the vertical moist-static stability of the atmosphere. The difference in the precipitation changes in the two cumulus schemes is on account of the different responses in the two parameterization schemes to changes in vertical stability. Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (tropical meteorology; precipitation

  19. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1: consistent simulation of ozone from the surface to the mesosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jöckel


    Full Text Available The new Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy describes atmospheric chemistry and meteorological processes in a modular framework, following strict coding standards. It has been coupled to the ECHAM5 general circulation model, which has been slightly modified for this purpose. A 90-layer model setup up to 0.01 hPa was used at spectral T42 resolution to simulate the lower and middle atmosphere. With the high vertical resolution the model simulates the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The model meteorology has been tested to check the influence of the changes to ECHAM5 and the radiation interactions with the new representation of atmospheric composition. In the simulations presented here a Newtonian relaxation technique was applied in the tropospheric part of the domain to weakly nudge the model towards the analysed meteorology during the period 1998–2005. This allows an efficient and direct evaluation with satellite and in-situ data. It is shown that the tropospheric wave forcing of the stratosphere in the model suffices to reproduce major stratospheric warming events leading e.g. to the vortex split over Antarctica in 2002. Characteristic features such as dehydration and denitrification caused by the sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud particles and ozone depletion during winter and spring are simulated well, although ozone loss in the lower polar stratosphere is slightly underestimated. The model realistically simulates stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes as indicated by comparisons with satellite and in situ measurements. The evaluation of tropospheric chemistry presented here focuses on the distributions of ozone, hydroxyl radicals, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen compounds. In spite of minor shortcomings, mostly related to the relatively coarse T42 resolution and the neglect of inter-annual changes in biomass burning emissions, the main characteristics of the trace gas distributions are generally reproduced well. The MESSy

  20. Reassessing the impacts and the atmospheric circulation of the large storms over Portugal (United States)

    Varino, F.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.


    The present work was made possible after the recently development of a database of flooding and landslide events that occurred in Portugal during the 20 century. This database was collected through careful analysis of most available daily Portuguese newspapers at the time, namely "Diário de Noticias" and "Século" describing the consequences of important hydro-geological hazards during the 20 century. Therefore it is possible to evaluate the impact of these events through relatively detailed reports of the most affected places, including; number of deaths, dislodged and evacuated people, and even involved rescue entities or costs. On the other hand, the analysis of meteorological conditions for these events was made possible through the recent development of the 20 Century Reanalysis dataset from National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Compo et al., 2011), that covers the entire period in study. This long-term database allows re-evaluating the atmospheric conditions not only at the surface but also at several levels of the atmosphere, enabling a new approach to the studied events. Moreover, the new reanalysis is also more extended in time, with available data from 1871 until 2008 which makes it possible to represent and study the weather events before 1948 with a new perspective. In this work it is analysed in detail the most important and devastating storm that took place since 1871, including the strongest sequence of storms ever observed in early December 1876 that lead to catastrophic floods in river Guadiana and Tagus. Other extreme events episodes that took place throughout the 20 century and never studied before are also analysed (albeit in less detail), namely on the 22 December 1909, 20 November 1937, 23 January and 1 February 1941, 19 November 1945, 2 January 1962 and 25 November 1967 the deadliest flood ever that occurred in Portugal. For each event it was computed the sequence of 6 hourly weather fields of precipitation rate and mean sea

  1. A comparison of vertical coordinate systems for numerical modeling of the general circulation of the atmosphere (United States)

    Heikes, Ross Parker

    The Colorado State University general circulation model has been dramatically changed in the last few years. The horizontal grid has been changed from a latitude/longitude grid with an Arakawa C-grid staggering of mass, zonal and meridional wind to a geodesic grid in which mass, vorticity and divergence are predicted at cell centers. Throughout this change the vertical structure has remained unchanged. Now, we are poised to revamp the vertical structure of the model. We have studied several possible alternative vertical coordinate systems in order to pick the one best suited for long-term climate prediction. After a brief historical review of various vertical coordinates used in numerical modeling, we will focus on three models---one based on the co-called sigma-coordinate, on based on a pure isentropic coordinate and one based a hybrid sigma-θ vertical coordinate. We will show how the continuous equations are transformed to finite-difference analogs, and how the transformation preserves many of the conservation properties of the continuous equations. We will show how different vertical discretization of the prognostic variables---Lorenz or Chamey-Phillips vertical staggering---can influence the quality of the numerical simulation. Many fundamental questions about the isentropic- and hybrid-coordinate need to be answered. Since the isentropic-coordinate surfaces behave as Lagrangian surfaces, the ideas of grid resolution from the Eulerian framework are not applicable. Also, in the isentropic- and hybrid-coordinates, there is a much greater variation in layer thickness. Excessive vertical resolution in the extra-tropics where coordinate surfaces are close, may become inadequately coarse in the tropics as the coordinate surfaces spread apart. We will show how the quality of the Held and Suarez test case changes as a function of resolution. We have performed a simulation of stratospheric sudden warming with the isentropic-coordinate model. We will compare our results

  2. Possible combined influences of absorbing aerosols and anomalous atmospheric circulation on summertime diurnal temperature range variation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (United States)

    Cai, Jiaxi; Guan, Zhaoyong; Ma, Fenhua


    Based on the temperature data from the China Meteorological Administration, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, and the TOMS Aerosol Index (AI), we analyze the variations in the summertime diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature maxima in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in China. The possible relationships between the direct warming effect of the absorbing aerosol and temperature variations are further investigated, although with some uncertainties. It is found that the summertime DTR exhibits a decreasing trend over the most recent 50 years, along with a slight increasing tendency since the 1980s. The trend of the maximum temperature is in agreement with those of the DTR and the absorbing aerosols. To investigate the causes of the large anomalies in the temperature maxima, composite analyses of the circulation anomalies are performed. When anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature over the MLRYR have the same sign, an anomalous circulation with a quasi-barotropic structure occurs there. This anomalous circulation is modulated by the Rossby wave energy propagations from the regions northwest of the MLRYR and influences the northwestern Pacific subtropical high over the MLRYR. In combination with aerosols, the anomalous circulation may increase the maximum temperature in this region. Conversely, when the anomalous AI and anomalous maximum temperature in the MLRYR have opposite signs, the anomalous circulation is not equivalently barotropic, which possibly offsets the warming effect of aerosols on the maximum temperature changes in this region. These results are helpful for a better understanding of the DTR changes and the occurrences of temperature extremes in the MLRYR region during boreal summer.

  3. Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model (United States)

    Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)


    Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

  4. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson


    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  5. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo


    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  6. Role of Atmospheric Circulation and Westerly Jet Changes in the mid-Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (United States)

    Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.


    The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) varies on inter-decadal to interglacial-glacial timescales. The EASM is stronger in the mid-Holocene than today, and these changes can be readily explained by orbitally-driven insolation increase during the boreal summer. However, a detailed understanding of the altered seasonal evolution of the EASM during this time is still lacking. In particular, previous work has suggested a close link between seasonal migration of the EASM and that of the mid-latitude westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we explore, this problem in PMIP3 climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene, focusing on the role of atmospheric circulation and in particular how the westerly jet modulates the East Asia summer climate on paleoclimate timescales. Analysis of the model simulations suggests that, compared to the preindustrial simulations, the transition from Mei-Yu to deep summer rainfall occurs earlier in the mid-Holocene. This is accompanied by an earlier weakening and northward shift of westerly jet away from the Tibetan Plateau. The variation in the strength and the 3-D structure of the westerly jet in the mid-Holocene is summarized. We find that changes to the monsoonal rainfall, westerly jet and meridional circulation covary on paleoclimate timescales. Meridional wind changes in particular are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road' teleconnection pattern, riding along the westerly jet. Diagnostic analysis also reveals changes in moist static energy and eddy energy fluxes associated with the earlier seasonal transition of the EASM. Our analyses suggest that the westerly jet is critical to the altered dynamics of the East Asian summer monsoon during the mid-Holocene.

  7. North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; Jimenez, P.A. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Navarro, J. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Xoplaki, E. [University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Montavez, J.P. [Universidad de Murcia, Departamento de Fisica, Murcia (Spain)


    The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992-2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified

  8. Simulating influence of QBO phase on planetary waves during a stratospheric warming in a general circulation model of the middle atmosphere (United States)

    Koval, Andrey; Gavrilov, Nikolai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander; Savenkova, Elena


    One of the important factors of dynamical interactions between the lower and upper atmosphere is energy and momentum transfer by atmospheric internal gravity waves. For numerical modeling of the general circulation and thermal regime of the middle and upper atmosphere, it is important to take into account accelerations of the mean flow and heating rates produced by dissipating internal waves. The quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) of the zonal mean flow at lower latitudes at stratospheric heights can affect the propagation conditions of planetary waves. We perform numerical simulation of global atmospheric circulation for the initial conditions corresponding to the years with westerly and easterly QBO phases. We focus on the changes in amplitudes of stationary planetary waves (SPWs) and traveling normal atmospheric modes (NAMs) in the atmosphere during SSW events for the different QBO phases. For these experiments, we use the global circulation of the middle and upper atmosphere model (MUAM). There is theory of PW waveguide describing atmospheric regions where the background wind and temperature allow the wave propagation. There were introduced the refractive index for PWs and found that strongest planetary wave propagation is in areas of large positive values of this index. Another important PW characteristic is the Eliassen-Palm flux (EP-flux). These characteristics are considered as useful tools for visualizing the PW propagation conditions. Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has significant influence on the formation of the weather anomalous and climate changes in the troposphere. Also, SSW event may affect the dynamical and energy processes in the upper atmosphere. The major SSW events imply significant temperature rises (up to 30 - 40 K) at altitudes 30 - 50 km accompanying with corresponding decreases, or reversals, of climatological eastward zonal winds in the stratosphere.

  9. Thermal, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Colima M7.8 earthquake of 21 January 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Pulinets


    Full Text Available The paper examines the possible relationship of anomalous variations of different atmospheric and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of a strong earthquake (Mw 7.8 which occurred in Mexico (state of Colima on 21 January 2003. These variations are interpreted within the framework of the developed model of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling. The main attention is focused on the processes in the near ground layer of the atmosphere involving the ionization of air by radon, the water molecules' attachment to the formed ions, and the corresponding changes in the latent heat. Model considerations are supported by experimental measurements showing the local diminution of air humidity one week prior to the earthquake, accompanied by the anomalous thermal infrared (TIR signals and surface latent heat flux (SLHF and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC registered over the epicenter of the impending earthquake three days prior to the main earthquake event. Statistical processing of the data of the GPS receivers network, together with various other atmospheric parameters demonstrate the possibility of an early warning of an impending strong earthquake.

  10. Thermal, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Colima M7.8 earthquake of 21 January 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Pulinets


    Full Text Available The paper examines the possible relationship of anomalous variations of different atmospheric and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of a strong earthquake (Mw 7.8 which occurred in Mexico (state of Colima on 21 January 2003. These variations are interpreted within the framework of the developed model of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling. The main attention is focused on the processes in the near ground layer of the atmosphere involving the ionization of air by radon, the water molecules' attachment to the formed ions, and the corresponding changes in the latent heat. Model considerations are supported by experimental measurements showing the local diminution of air humidity one week prior to the earthquake, accompanied by the anomalous thermal infrared (TIR signals and surface latent heat flux (SLHF and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC registered over the epicenter of the impending earthquake three days prior to the main earthquake event. Statistical processing of the data of the GPS receivers network, together with various other atmospheric parameters demonstrate the possibility of an early warning of an impending strong earthquake.

  11. Modeling the surface heat flux response to long-lived SST anomalies in the North Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, S.B.; Kleeman, R.; Colman, R.A. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne (Australia)] [and others


    An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), a simplified atmospheric model (SAM) of surface heat flux, and various idealized analytic models have been used to investigate the atmospheric response over the North Atlantic to SST anomalies, including a general cooling associated with a weakened thermohaline circulation. Latent heating dominates the surface heat flux response, while sensible heating plays an important secondary role. The total heat flux response is weaker than presumed in recent studies using ocean models under highly idealized surface boundary conditions. This implies that stability of the thermohaline circulation to high-latitude freshening in more sophisticated coupled systems (that incorporate either AGCMs or models like SAM) will be increased. All three kinds of atmospheric models exhibit nonrestorative behavior away from the anomaly peak that is primarily associated with the advection of cooled air eastward. This simple picture is complicated in the AGCM by the fact that the winds weaken over the SST anomaly, which helps to moderate the response. Analytic models for atmospheric temperature forced using imposed surface temperature anomalies highlight conditions under which a nonrestorative response can arise. Previous work has shown that the length scale of spatially periodic anomalies partially determines the magnitude of the response in a diffusive atmosphere. Here the authors show that this scale dependence has much wider applicability by considering more localized anomalies and by the inclusion of advective transport processes. The modification of the response by sea ice changes and the absence of any statistically significant change in the basin-averaged hydrological cycle are also discussed. 62 refs., 19 figs.

  12. Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland). (United States)

    Walna, Barbara; Kurzyca, Iwona; Bednorz, Ewa; Kolendowicz, Leszek


    A 2-year study (2010-2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2 mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52 mg/m(2)/year. In 2011, over 51% of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10 mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more than 86% of events. In 2010, a strong connection was evident between fluoride and acid-forming ions, and in 2011, a correlation between phosphate and nitrite ions was seen. Analysis of available data on F(-) concentrations in the air did not show an unequivocal effect on F(-) concentrations in precipitation. To find reasons for and source areas of high fluoride pollution, the cases of extreme fluoride concentration in rainwater were related to atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. Weather conditions on days of extreme pollution were determined by movement of weather fronts over western Poland, or by small cyclonic centers with meteorological fronts. Macroscale air advection over the sampling site originated in the western quadrant (NW, W, and SW), particularly in the middle layers of the troposphere (2,500-5,000 m a.s.l.). Such directions indicate western Poland and Germany as possible sources of the pollution. At the same time in the lower troposphere, air inflow was frequently from the north, showing short distance transport from local emitters, and from the agglomeration of Poznań.

  13. Initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth in a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Voigt


    Full Text Available We study the initiation of a Marinoan Snowball Earth (~635 million years before present with the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This is the most sophisticated model ever applied to Snowball initiation. A comparison with a pre-industrial control climate shows that the change of surface boundary conditions from present-day to Marinoan, including a shift of continents to low latitudes, induces a global-mean cooling of 4.6 K. Two thirds of this cooling can be attributed to increased planetary albedo, the remaining one third to a weaker greenhouse effect. The Marinoan Snowball Earth bifurcation point for pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide is between 95.5 and 96% of the present-day total solar irradiance (TSI, whereas a previous study with the same model found that it was between 91 and 94% for present-day surface boundary conditions. A Snowball Earth for TSI set to its Marinoan value (94% of the present-day TSI is prevented by doubling carbon dioxide with respect to its pre-industrial level. A zero-dimensional energy balance model is used to predict the Snowball Earth bifurcation point from only the equilibrium global-mean ocean potential temperature for present-day TSI. We do not find stable states with sea-ice cover above 55%, and land conditions are such that glaciers could not grow with sea-ice cover of 55%. Therefore, none of our simulations qualifies as a "slushball" solution. While uncertainties in important processes and parameters such as clouds and sea-ice albedo suggest that the Snowball Earth bifurcation point differs between climate models, our results contradict previous findings that Snowball Earth initiation would require much stronger forcings.

  14. Influence of Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions on the global water isotope distribution in an atmospheric general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tharammal


    Full Text Available To understand the validity of δ18O proxy records as indicators of past temperature change, a series of experiments was conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model fitted with water isotope tracers (Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0, IsoCAM. A pre-industrial simulation was performed as the control experiment, as well as a simulation with all the boundary conditions set to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM values. Results from the pre-industrial and LGM simulations were compared to experiments in which the influence of individual boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, ice sheet albedo and topography, sea surface temperature (SST, and orbital parameters were changed each at a time to assess their individual impact. The experiments were designed in order to analyze the spatial variations of the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprecip in response to individual climate factors. The change in topography (due to the change in land ice cover played a significant role in reducing the surface temperature and δ18Oprecip over North America. Exposed shelf areas and the ice sheet albedo reduced the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and δ18Oprecip further. A global mean cooling of 4.1 °C was simulated with combined LGM boundary conditions compared to the control simulation, which was in agreement with previous experiments using the fully coupled Community Climate System Model (CCSM3. Large reductions in δ18Oprecip over the LGM ice sheets were strongly linked to the temperature decrease over them. The SST and ice sheet topography changes were responsible for most of the changes in the climate and hence the δ18Oprecip distribution among the simulations.

  15. New directions in hydro-climatic histories: observational data recovery, proxy records and the atmospheric circulation reconstructions over the earth (ACRE) initiative in Southeast Asia (United States)

    Williamson, Fiona; Allan, Rob; Switzer, Adam D.; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Wasson, Robert James; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Gartner, Richard


    The value of historic observational weather data for reconstructing long-term climate patterns and the detailed analysis of extreme weather events has long been recognized (Le Roy Ladurie, 1972; Lamb, 1977). In some regions however, observational data has not been kept regularly over time, or its preservation and archiving has not been considered a priority by governmental agencies. This has been a particular problem in Southeast Asia where there has been no systematic country-by-country method of keeping or preserving such data, the keeping of data only reaches back a few decades, or where instability has threatened the survival of historic records. As a result, past observational data are fragmentary, scattered, or even absent altogether. The further we go back in time, the more obvious the gaps. Observational data can be complimented however by historical documentary or proxy records of extreme events such as floods, droughts and other climatic anomalies. This review article highlights recent initiatives in sourcing, recovering, and preserving historical weather data and the potential for integrating the same with proxy (and other) records. In so doing, it focuses on regional initiatives for data research and recovery - particularly the work of the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth's (ACRE) Southeast Asian regional arm (ACRE SEA) - and the latter's role in bringing together disparate, but interrelated, projects working within this region. The overarching goal of the ACRE SEA initiative is to connect regional efforts and to build capacity within Southeast Asian institutions, agencies and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) to improve and extend historical instrumental, documentary and proxy databases of Southeast Asian hydroclimate, in order to contribute to the generation of high-quality, high-resolution historical hydroclimatic reconstructions (reanalyses) and, to build linkages with humanities researchers

  16. Atmospheric circulation in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica over the last 200 years according to chemical studies of snow‑firn cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Osipov


    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variability of a sea‑salt aerosol (Na+ concentration was investigated in snow‑firn cores and snow pits taken at four sites of the Indian Ocean sector of the East Antarctica (along a profile between stations Progress and Vostok: PV‑10, NVFL‑1, SW‑42, and the Vostok point. In long annually resolved Na+ records, we had revealed the following periodicities: 17 to 95‑year (Vostok and 29 to 52‑year (NVFL‑1, while the shorter records are characterized by 8‑year periodicity. The Na+ concentrations decrease as the snow accu‑ mulation increases (especially, at the Vostok station, and this is evidence for a presence of «dilution effect» in the sites with the great part of «dry precipitation». The closest relationship was revealed between changes in flows of Na+ at points SW‑42, and PV‑10. Variability of the Na+ fluxes had been linked to the circulation indices (AAO, PDO, SOI, MEI, SPO and the sea level pressure in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as to occurrence of Elementary Circulation Mechanisms (ECM. The revealed irregularity of the Na+ precipitation over the area under investigation is caused by different atmospheric circulation patterns as well as by influ‑ ence of basic Action Centers of the Atmosphere (ACA in the Southern Hemisphere. The closest relationship is found to take place with South Pacific ACA (Vostok, 1976–2009 and with the South Indian ACA (SW‑42 and PV‑10. A presence of distant atmospheric relations (including one with El Nino had been revealed for the inland areas. Changes in features of the atmospheric circulation in the South Indian Ocean over the last 200‑year period have been reconstructed on the basis of summarized Na+ records from the Vostok station area. Distinctive feature of the atmospheric circulation is the 40‑year periodicity with its increasing intensity during the following periods: 1805–1820, 1830–1860, 1890–1900, 1940–1950, and 1980–2000. In

  17. New evidence of Holocene atmospheric circulation dynamics based on lake sediments from southern Sweden: a link to the Siberian High (United States)

    Muschitiello, F.; Schwark, L.; Wohlfarth, B.; Sturm, C.; Hammarlund, D.


    Oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records of calcitic carbonate components (Chara sp. algal encrustations and Bithynia tentaculata gastropod opercula) from a lake-sediment succession on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, south-eastern Sweden, have been obtained to investigate regional climate dynamics during the Holocene. The hydrological sensitivity of the small lake, particularly in terms of spring snowmelt contribution to the local water budget, provides a means of tracing past changes in the influence of snow-bearing easterly winds across the Baltic Sea Proper, which signifies the wintertime strength of the Siberian High. Repeated episodic depletions in 18O at the centennial scale correlate with events of increased potassium concentration in the GISP2 ice-core record from Greenland, which indicates a coupling to large-scale fluctuations in atmospheric circulation patterns. A corresponding correlation with simultaneous depletions in 13C suggests repeated responses of the local lake hydrology to snow-rich winters through decreasing water residence time, perhaps augmented by methanogenesis due to prolonged ice-cover seasons under the influence of an expanding Siberian High. Frequency analysis of the isotopic records reveals well-defined fluctuations at quasi-500-520-, 670-, 830- and 1430-yr periodicities, and a gradually stronger impact of Polar air outbreaks across the southern Baltic Sea region with time after ca 6000 cal. BP.

  18. Ocean-Ice Sheet Interactions in the Norwegian Sea and Teleconnections to Low Latitude Hydrology and Atmospheric Circulation (United States)

    Brendryen, J.; Hannisdal, B.; Haaga, K. A.; Haflidason, H.; Castro, D. D.; Grasmo, K. J.; Sejrup, H. P.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Kelly, M. J.; Lu, Y.


    Abrupt millennial scale climatic events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a defining feature of the Quaternary climate system dynamics in the North Atlantic and beyond. We present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of ocean-ice sheet interactions in the Norwegian Sea spanning the interval between 50 and 150 ka BP. A comparison with low latitude records indicates a very close connection between the high northern latitude ocean-ice sheet interactions and large scale changes in low latitude atmospheric circulation and hydrology even on sub-millennial scales. The records are placed on a common precise radiometric chronology based on correlations to U/Th dated speleothem records from China and the Alps. This enables a comparison of the records to orbital and other climatically important parameters such as U/Th dated sea-level data from corals and speleothems. We explore the drive-response relationships in these coupled systems with the information transfer (IT) and the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analytical techniques. These methods employ conceptually different approaches to detect the relative strength and directionality of potentially chaotic and nonlinearly coupled systems. IT is a non-parametric measure of information transfer between data records based on transfer entropy, while CCM relies on delay reconstructions using Takens' theorem. This approach enables us to address how the climate system processes interact and how this interaction is affected by external forcing from for example greenhouse gases and orbital variability.

  19. Assessing the Tangent Linear Behaviour of Common Tracer Transport Schemes and Their Use in a Linearised Atmospheric General Circulation Model (United States)

    Holdaway, Daniel; Kent, James


    The linearity of a selection of common advection schemes is tested and examined with a view to their use in the tangent linear and adjoint versions of an atmospheric general circulation model. The schemes are tested within a simple offline one-dimensional periodic domain as well as using a simplified and complete configuration of the linearised version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5). All schemes which prevent the development of negative values and preserve the shape of the solution are confirmed to have nonlinear behaviour. The piecewise parabolic method (PPM) with certain flux limiters, including that used by default in GEOS-5, is found to support linear growth near the shocks. This property can cause the rapid development of unrealistically large perturbations within the tangent linear and adjoint models. It is shown that these schemes with flux limiters should not be used within the linearised version of a transport scheme. The results from tests using GEOS-5 show that the current default scheme (a version of PPM) is not suitable for the tangent linear and adjoint model, and that using a linear third-order scheme for the linearised model produces better behaviour. Using the third-order scheme for the linearised model improves the correlations between the linear and non-linear perturbation trajectories for cloud liquid water and cloud liquid ice in GEOS-5.

  20. Modeling of water stable isotopes in the ECHAM6 atmospheric general circulation model: current status and perspectives (United States)

    Cauquoin, Alexandre; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit


    We present here the first results for present-day conditions of the ongoing implementation of water stables isotopes in the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM6, enhanced by the JSBACH interactive land surface scheme (ECHAM6-wiso). Major changes with respect to its predecessor ECHAM5 have to do with the treatment of shortwave radiative transfer, the development of a new surface albedo representation, a new aerosol climatology, the height of the model top, and a more complex representation of the land surface [1]. Besides, a new five-layer soil hydrology scheme can be used instead of the single soil moisture reservoir in ECHAM5/JSBACH [2]. Our first analyses of the ECHAM6-wiso results concentrate on a detailed comparison to the previous model release, ECHAM5-wiso, and potential improvements in simulating the water stable isotopes signal due to overall model enhancements. This study represents the first step of the incorporation of water stable isotope tracers in all components of the fully coupled Earth system model MPI-ESM. The project is part of the PalMod initiative ("Paleo Modelling: A national paleo climate modelling initiative"), funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF). [1] Stevens et al., 2013, JAMES, 5, 146-172. [2] Hagemann and Stacke, 2015, Clim. Dyn., 44, 1731-1750.

  1. An Evaluation of the Large-Scale Implementation of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC Using an Ocean General Circulation Model with Low-Complexity Atmospheric Feedback Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanli Jia


    Full Text Available Previous investigations of the large-scale deployment of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversions (OTEC systems are extended by allowing some atmospheric feedback in an ocean general circulation model. A modified ocean-atmosphere thermal boundary condition is used where relaxation corresponds to atmospheric longwave radiation to space, and an additional term expresses horizontal atmospheric transport. This produces lower steady-state OTEC power maxima (8 to 10.2 TW instead of 14.1 TW for global OTEC scenarios, and 7.2 to 9.3 TW instead of 11.9 TW for OTEC implementation within 100 km of coastlines. When power production peaks, power intensity remains practically unchanged, at 0.2 TW per Sverdrup of OTEC deep cold seawater, suggesting a similar degradation of the OTEC thermal resource. Large-scale environmental effects include surface cooling in low latitudes and warming elsewhere, with a net heat intake within the water column. These changes develop rapidly from the propagation of Kelvin and Rossby waves, and ocean current advection. Two deep circulation cells are generated in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC is reinforced while an AMOC-like feature appears in the North Pacific, with deep convective winter events at high latitudes. Transport between the Indo-Pacific and the Southern Ocean is strengthened, with impacts on the Atlantic via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC.

  2. Numerical simulation of local atmospheric circulations in the pre-Alpine area between Lake Garda and Verona (United States)

    Laiti, L.; Serafin, S.; Zardi, D.


    The pre-Alpine area between Lake Garda and Verona displays a very complex and heterogeneous territory, allowing the development of several interacting systems of thermally driven local winds, the major being the lake/land breeze system on the coasts of Lake Garda and the up/down-valley wind system between the plain and the river Adige Valley. In order to investigate the local wind patterns, a series of nested numerical simulations with a horizontal resolution of 500 m were carried out using the ARPS 5.2.9 model (Xue et al. 2000, 2001), considering a fair weather day suitable for a clear development of the expected circulations (15th July 2003). The simulated wind speed and direction, pressure, temperature and water vapour mixing ratio were compared to synoptic scale meteorological charts, to vertical profiles from radiosoundings taken at the major sounding stations of the alpine region and to local scale measurements performed at the surface station of Dolcè (at the inlet of the Adige Valley). Numerical results at all scales were found to be in very good agreement with the available sets of meteorological observations. The analysis of the diurnal evolution of the 3D fields of temperature, moisture content, wind and turbulent kinetic energy allowed the identification of a very shallow and clearly defined breeze front of cold and humid air moving from off-shore towards the Lake Garda coast, from the late morning (10:00 LST) until the evening (20:00 LST). The diurnal up-valley breeze was also well reproduced: the valley atmosphere displays a thick mixed layer dominated by shallow turbulent convection between 11:00 LST and 21:00 LST. Lateral slope winds were also recognized, as they created cross-valley convective cells. While no clear evidence of a nocturnal land breeze was found in the simulations, the nocturnal down-valley wind in the Adige Valley was clearly reproduced. Finally, a scalar transport equation was added to the ARPS model in order to simulate transport

  3. Twentieth-century atmospheric river activity along the west coasts of Europe and North America: algorithm formulation, reanalysis uncertainty and links to atmospheric circulation patterns (United States)

    Brands, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; San-Martín, D.


    A new atmospheric-river detection and tracking scheme based on the magnitude and direction of integrated water vapour transport is presented and applied separately over 13 regions located along the west coasts of Europe (including North Africa) and North America. Four distinct reanalyses are considered, two of which cover the entire twentieth-century: NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (NOAA-20C) and ECMWF ERA-20C. Calculations are done separately for the OND and JFM-season and, for comparison with previous studies, for the ONDJFM-season as a whole. Comparing the AR-counts from NOAA-20C and ERA-20C with a running 31-year window looping through 1900-2010 reveals differences in the climatological mean and inter-annual variability which, at the start of the twentieth-century, are much more pronounced in western North America than in Europe. Correlating European AR-counts with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reveals a pattern reminiscent of the well-know precipitation dipole which is stable throughout the entire century. A similar analysis linking western North American AR-counts to the North Pacific index (NPI) is hampered by the aforementioned poor reanalysis agreement at the start of the century. During the second half of the twentieth-century, the strength of the NPI-link considerably varies with time in British Columbia and the Gulf of Alaska. Considering the period 1950-2010, AR-counts are then associated with other relevant large-scale circulation indices such as the East Atlantic, Scandinavian, Pacific-North American and West Pacific patterns (EA, SCAND, PNA and WP). Along the Atlantic coastline of the Iberian Peninsula and France, the EA-link is stronger than the NAO-link if the OND season is considered and the SCAND-link found in northern Europe is significant during both seasons. Along the west coast of North America, teleconnections are generally stronger during JFM in which case the NPI-link is significant in any of the five considered

  4. Surface-layer turbulence, energy balance and links to atmospheric circulations over a mountain glacier in the French Alps (United States)

    Litt, Maxime; Sicart, Jean-Emmanuel; Six, Delphine; Wagnon, Patrick; Helgason, Warren D.


    Over Saint-Sorlin Glacier in the French Alps (45° N, 6.1° E; ˜ 3 km2) in summer, we study the atmospheric surface-layer dynamics, turbulent fluxes, their uncertainties and their impact on surface energy balance (SEB) melt estimates. Results are classified with regard to large-scale forcing. We use high-frequency eddy-covariance data and mean air-temperature and wind-speed vertical profiles, collected in 2006 and 2009 in the glacier's atmospheric surface layer. We evaluate the turbulent fluxes with the eddy-covariance (sonic) and the profile method, and random errors and parametric uncertainties are evaluated by including different stability corrections and assuming different values for surface roughness lengths. For weak synoptic forcing, local thermal effects dominate the wind circulation. On the glacier, weak katabatic flows with a wind-speed maximum at low height (2-3 m) are detected 71 % of the time and are generally associated with small turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and small net turbulent fluxes. Radiative fluxes dominate the SEB. When the large-scale forcing is strong, the wind in the valley aligns with the glacier flow, intense downslope flows are observed, no wind-speed maximum is visible below 5 m, and TKE and net turbulent fluxes are often intense. The net turbulent fluxes contribute significantly to the SEB. The surface-layer turbulence production is probably not at equilibrium with dissipation because of interactions of large-scale orographic disturbances with the flow when the forcing is strong or low-frequency oscillations of the katabatic flow when the forcing is weak. In weak forcing when TKE is low, all turbulent fluxes calculation methods provide similar fluxes. In strong forcing when TKE is large, the choice of roughness lengths impacts strongly the net turbulent fluxes from the profile method fluxes and their uncertainties. However, the uncertainty on the total SEB remains too high with regard to the net observed melt to be able to

  5. Airborne pollen in three European cities: Detection of atmospheric circulation pathways by applying three-dimensional clustering of backward trajectories (United States)

    Makra, LáSzló; SáNta, TamáS.; Matyasovszky, IstváN.; Damialis, Athanasios; Karatzas, Kostas; Bergmann, Karl-Christian; Vokou, Despoina


    The long-range transport of particulates can substantially contribute to local air pollution. The importance of airborne pollen has grown due to the recent climate change; the lengthening of the pollen season and rising mean airborne pollen concentrations have increased health risks. Our aim is to identify atmospheric circulation pathways influencing pollen levels in three European cities, namely Thessaloniki, Szeged, and Hamburg. Trajectories were computed using the HYSPLIT model. The 4 day, 6 hourly three-dimensional (3-D) backward trajectories arriving at these locations at 1200 UT are produced for each day over a 5 year period. A k-means clustering algorithm using the Mahalanobis metric was applied in order to develop trajectory types. The delimitation of the clusters performed by the 3-D function "convhull" is a novel approach. The results of the cluster analysis reveal that the main pathways for Thessaloniki contributing substantially to the high mean Urticaceae pollen levels cover western Europe and the Mediterranean. The key pathway patterns for Ambrosia for Szeged are associated with backward trajectories coming from northwestern Europe, northeastern Europe, and northern Europe. A major pollen source identified is a cluster over central Europe, namely the Carpathian basin with peak values in Hungary. The principal patterns for Poaceae for Hamburg include western Europe and the mid-Atlantic region. Locations of the source areas coincide with the main habitat regions of the species in question. Critical daily pollen number exceedances conditioned on the clusters were also evaluated using two statistical indices. An attempt was made to separate medium- and long-range airborne pollen transport.

  6. Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall (United States)

    Taibi, S.; Meddi, M.; Mahé, G.; Assani, A.


    This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10-20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

  7. Summer precipitation anomalies in the low-latitude highlands of China coupled with the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole-like sea surface temperature (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Gui, Shu; Cao, Jie; Yan, Hongming


    The relationship between the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD)-like sea surface temperature (SST) and summer precipitation in the low-latitude highlands (LLH) of China is investigated in a suite of numerical simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The AGCM experiments driven by SIOD-like SST anomalies are inconsistent with the observations. However, the coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments show a good agreement with the observational results. The modeling results indicate that the air-sea interaction rather than a simple atmospheric forcing-response relationship is a crucial mechanism explaining the connection among the anomalous summer precipitation in the LLH, the anomalous divergence circulations across the Indian Ocean, and the SIOD-like SST anomalies. The effect of the enhanced interhemispheric vertical circulation variability associated with the SIOD-like SST anomalies facilitates zonal wind anomalies in the northern Bay of Bengal, and further induces anomalous water vapor convergence and precipitation anomalies in the LLH. The SST-wind-evaporation feedback mechanism could account for maintenance of the SIOD-like pattern in the coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments. These results could help to improve prediction accuracy of summer rainfall variations over the LLH of China.

  8. Vascular anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murthy Jyotsna


    Full Text Available Management of vascular anomalies is an emerging multidisciplinary, super-specialisation field involving several surgical, medical and radiological specialties. Over the years, development in this field has been limited because of complex nomenclature and lack of consensus on the best practice for treatment of some of the more complex vascular anomalies. It was only in 1996 that the International Society of the Study of Vascular Anomalies defined nomenclature for the anomalies and gave clear guidelines on management, allowing for improved clinical practices. As in all fields of clinical medicine, the correct diagnosis of the vascular anomalies is essential to choose the appropriate treatment. This paper gives clear guidelines for diagnosis, understanding of the anomalies and discusses their management.

  9. Ebstein anomaly (United States)

    ... the complications of the disease. For example, taking antibiotics before dental surgery may help prevent endocarditis. Alternative Names Ebstein's anomaly; Ebstein's malformation; Congenital heart defect - ...

  10. Bolivian Bouguer Anomaly Grid (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A 1 kilometer Bouguer anomaly grid for the country of Bolivia.Number of columns is 550 and number of rows is 900. The order of the data is from the lower left to the...

  11. Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe (United States)

    Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark


    Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power

  12. Investigating Cenozoic climate change in tectonically active regions with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5) (United States)

    Mutz, Sebastian; Ehlers, Todd; Li, Jingmin; Werner, Martin; Stepanek, Christian; Lohmann, Gerrit


    Studies of Cenozoic palaeo-climates contribute to our understanding of contemporary climate change by providing insight into analogues such as the Pliocene (PLIO), and by evaluation of GCM (General Circulation Models) performance using the Mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, climate is a factor to be considered in the evolution of ecology, landscapes and mountains, and in the reconstruction of erosion histories. In this study, we use high-resolution (T159) ECHAM5 simulations to investigate pre-industrial (PI) and the the above mentioned palaeo-climates for four tectonically active regions: Alaska (St. Elias Range), the US Northwest Pacific (Cascade Range), western South America (Andes) and parts of Asia (Himalaya-Tibet). The PI climate simulation is an AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) style ECHAM5 experiment, whereas MH and LGM simulation are based on simulations conducted at the Alfred Wegner Institute, Bremerhaven. Sea surface boundary conditions for MH were taken from coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations (Wei and Lohmann, 2012; Zhang et al, 2013) and sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentration for the LGM are based on GLAMAP project reconstructions (Schäfer-Neth and Paul, 2003). Boundary conditions for the PLIO simulation are taken from the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) project and the employed PLIO vegetation boundary condition is created by means of the transfer procedure for the PRISM vegetation reconstruction to the JSBACH plant functional types as described by Stepanek and Lohmann (2012). For each of the investigated areas and time slices, the regional simulated climates are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability of precipitation, 2m air temperature and the intra-annual amplitude of the values. Results indicate the largest differences to a PI climate are observed for LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and warming

  13. Interior Alaska Bouguer Gravity Anomaly (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A 1 kilometer Complete Bouguer Anomaly gravity grid of interior Alaska. Only those grid cells within 10 kilometers of a gravity data point have gravity values....

  14. Interior Alaska Bouguer Gravity Anomaly (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A 1 kilometer Complete Bouguer Anomaly gravity grid of interior Alaska. All grid cells within the rectangular data area (from 61 to 66 degrees North latitude and...

  15. Long-term trend in ground-based air temperature and its responses to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity in the Yangtze River Delta, China (United States)

    Peng, Xia; She, Qiannan; Long, Lingbo; Liu, Min; Xu, Qian; Zhang, Jiaxin; Xiang, Weining


    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD), including Shanghai City, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, is the largest metropolitan region in China. In the past decades, the region has experienced massive urbanization and detrimentally affected the environment in the region. Identifying the spatio-temporal variations of climate change and its influencing mechanism in the YRD is an important task for assessing their impacts on the local society and ecosystem. Based on long-term (1958-2014) observation data of meteorological stations, three temperature indices, i.e. extreme maximum temperature (TXx), extreme minimum temperature (TNn), and mean temperature (TMm), were selected and spatialized with climatological calculations and spatial techniques. Evolution and spatial heterogeneity of three temperature indices over YRD as well as their links to atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic activity were investigated. In the whole YRD, a statistically significant overall uptrend could be detected in three temperature indices with the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method. The linear increasing trend for TMm was 0.31 °C/10 a, which was higher than the global average (0.12 °C/10 a during 1951-2012). For TXx and TNn, the increasing rates were 0.41 °C/10 a and 0.52 °C/10 a. Partial correlation analysis indicated that TMm was more related with TXx (rp = 0.68, p < 0.001) than TNn (rp = 0.48, p < 0.001). Furthermore, it was detected with M-K analysis at pixel scale that 62.17%, 96.75% and 97.05% of the areas in the YRD showed significant increasing trends for TXx, TNn and TMm, respectively. The increasing trend was more obvious in the southern mountainous areas than the northern plains areas. Further analysis indicated that the variation of TXx over YRD was mainly influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. economic development), while TNn was more affected by atmospheric circulations (e.g., the Eurasian zonal circulation index (EAZ) and the cold air activity index (CA)). For TMm, it was a

  16. Salinity and streamflow variability in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States and its relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (United States)

    Schulte, Justin A.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Lee, Sukyoung


    The historical variability of streamflow and salinity was examined for three large estuaries of the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States (US) in order to determine how they are influenced by large-scale circulation patterns. New wavelet methods identified 2- and 4-year periodicities from the streamflow time series. A composite analysis of meteorological data revealed that the anomalously high daily streamflow events coincided with Rossby waves emanating from the tropical Pacific and an eastern mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) dipole pattern in which negative MSLP anomalies were situated over the southeast US and positive MSLP anomalies were situated over the northwestern North Atlantic Ocean. Based on this pattern, a new Eastern North American (ENA) index was constructed that could explain more daily streamflow variance than existing climate indices. A wavelet coherence analysis identified ENA index relationships with streamflow and salinity at periods of 2-4 years, suggesting that the ENA index may offer predictability beyond the weather forecasting timescale. The ENA index was also found to be phase-locked to the Gulf Stream index at a period of 74 months. Because the MSLP dipole pattern is linked to the upstream Rossby wave train, salinity variability at that timescale may have resulted from MSLP dipole-related changes in precipitation.

  17. Identification and frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns causing spring frost in the northern French vineyards using the objective version of the Hess-Brezowsky classification (United States)

    Quénol, H.; Planchon, O.; Wahl, L.


    frosts (until June). In the Loire Valley area, frost is rare as early as April. The combined effects of the continentality and the topographical features of the Upper Rhine Graben explain the hard frosts in early spring at Colmar, but also higher temperature at Colmar than at Reims from April. The Champagne area is the most exposed to frost-producing North-Westerly and Northerly atmospheric circulations in late spring (e.g. on May the 5th, 1996: minimum temperature of -1°C at Reims / Champagne and +3.8°C at Colmar). The identification and frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns causing spring frost (daily minimum temperature below 0°C) and hard frost (daily minimum temperature below -5°C) were carried out using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes (James, 2007). Minimum temperature data were got from the Meteo-France database (Climathèque), for the spring months (March, April and May) and for the period 1960-2007, at the weather stations of Saumur (Loire Valley), Reims (Champagne), Dijon (Burgundy) and Colmar (Alsace). More than 40% of the frost days occurring at all weather stations were associated with North-Westerly and Northerly circulation types, 27% with North-Easterly and Easterly circulation types and 16% with a main high or low pressure area over central Europe. More precisely, the cyclonic circulations involving a northerly flow over western Europe (15.6%) and Anticyclonic North-Easterly circulations (9,3%) are the most frequent circulations types associated with frost days. These circulation types bring air-masses favourable to radiation cooling, under clear sky and light wind, or cold air-masses from northern or eastern Europe causing advection cooling. The stations of eastern France can be subjected to frost events even during Westerly or Southerly circulations, while frost occurrence in the Saumur area requires a higher ratio of North-Easterly and

  18. Solar and geomagnetic effects on the frequency of atmospheric circulation types over Europe: an analysis based on a large number of classifications (United States)

    Huth, Radan; Cahynová, Monika; Kyselý, Jan


    Recently, effects of the 11-year solar cycle on various aspects of tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in winter have been recognized. One of our previous studies showed a significant solar effect on the frequency of synoptic types from the Hess-Brezowsky catalogue. Here, we use a large collection of varied classifications of circulation patterns, assembled within the COST733 Action "Harmonization and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions" to detect the solar effect on the frequency of synoptic types. The collection contains both objective and subjective classifications. The advantage of this multi-classification approach is that peculiarities or biases of any single classification (catalogue) that might influence the detected solar signal vanish once a large ensemble of classifications is used. We divide winter months (December to March) into three groups according to the mean monthly solar activity, quantified by the F10.7 flux. The three groups correspond to the minima of the 11-year solar cycle, a moderate solar activity, and solar maxima. Within each group, frequencies of occurrence of individual circulation types are calculated. Differences in the occurrence of individual classes between solar activity groups indicate the presence of a solar activity effect on atmospheric circulation over Europe. Statistical significance of these differences is estimated by a block resampling method. The research is supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Academy of Sciences, project A300420805, and by the Ministry of Education, Youth, and Sports of the Czech Republic, contract OC115.

  19. Links Between Flood Events In Central Europe Since Ad 1500 and The Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation (United States)

    Jacobeit, J.; Glaser, R.

    Based on historical climatic data bank information compiled by Glaser (2001) inci- dence variations of flood events can be reconstructed back to AD 1500 for several catchment areas in Central Europe. Based on gridded SLP data reconstructed back to AD 1500 by Luterbacher et al. (University of Berne) links to the large-scale atmo- spheric circulation may be identified on climatic time scales (monthly to seasonal). For this purpose several indices have been calculated describing the particular im- portance of different circulation patterns as a dynamical background for the varying incidence of flood events. For example, zonal circulation patterns cover the greatest part of these events, in relation to the pattern frequency, however, other circulation modes come to the fore during historical periods of increased flood frequency, e.g. modes characterised by Atlantic low and Russian high pressure centres during win- ter. Additionally, modifications in large-scale circulation patterns have been identified between periods with and without flood events as well as between periods with in- creased and decreased flood frequency, respectively. In particular shifts from westerly types to southwesterly or cyclonic wave patterns could be substantiated for months with historical flood events during winter.

  20. Influence of various forcings on global climate in historical times using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Mogensen, Irene A.; Christensen, Jens H.


    temperature record. The model is able to simulate individual extreme events such as the "year without a summer" 1816. Warm periods in the early seventeenth century and the second half of eighteenth century occur in periods of increased solar irradiation. Strong warming is simulated after 1850, in particular....... These cooling events are not restricted to Europe and North America, but cover most of the Northern Hemisphere. Colder than average conditions, for example during the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries, go along with a decrease in pressure difference between low and high latitudes and a decrease...... of the North Atlantic Oscillation. This favours positive sea ice anomalies east of Greenland and around Iceland, leading to widespread negative temperature anomalies over Europe. We also find characteristic blocking patterns over Western Europe, in particular during autumn, which contribute to the advection...

  1. Modelling atmospheric circulations for the study of Alpine valleys pollution; Modelisation des circulations atmospheriques pour l'etude de la pollution des vallees alpines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brulfert, G.


    Local weather phenomena observed in alpine valleys frequently lead to the accumulation of emitted anthropogenic airborne species in the low layers of the atmosphere. The development of a numerical model allows reproducing the chemical evolution of air mass during POVA intensive period of observations. In Chamonix and Maurienne valley, computations of photochemical indicators (NO{sub y}, O{sub 3}/NO{sub z}, H{sub 2}O{sub 2}/HNO{sub 3}) prove the ozone regime to be control by volatile organic compounds. Moreover simulation highlighted that the major part of this secondary pollutant is regionally produced. The development of an indicator who localised ozone production sites can help to define abatement scenarios. The chemical mechanism RACM allows describing the evolution of many species. It is possible to conclude that in winter road traffic and heating are the main sources of volatile organic compounds. (author)

  2. Impacts of the cloud structure's latitudinal variation on the general circulation of the Venus atmosphere as modeled by the LMD-GCM (United States)

    Garate-Lopez, Itziar; Lebonnois, Sébastien


    A new simulation of Venus atmospheric circulation obtained with the LMD Venus GCM is described and the impact of cloud's latitudinal structure on the general circulation is analyzed. The model used here is based on that presented in Lebonnois et al. (2016). However, in the present simulation we consider the latitudinal variation of the cloud structure (Haus et al., 2014) both for the solar heating and to compute the infrared net-exchange rate matrix used in the radiative transfer module. The new cloud treatment affects mainly the balance in the angular momentum and the zonal wind distribution. Consequently, the agreement between the vertical profile of the modeled mean zonal wind and the profiles measured by different probes, is clearly improved from previous simulations in which zonal winds below the clouds were weak (roughly half the observed values). Moreover, the equatorial jet obtained at the base of the cloud deck is now more consistent with the observations. In Lebonnois et al. (2016) it was too strong compared to mid-latitudes, but in the present simulation the equatorial jet is less intense than the mid-latitude jets, in concordance with cloud-tracking measurements (Hueso et al., 2015). Since the atmospheric waves play a crucial role in the angular momentum budget of the Venus's atmospheric circulation, we analyze the wave activity by means of the Fast Fourier Transform technique studying the frequency spectrum of temperature, zonal and meridional wind fields. Modifications in the activity of the different types of waves present in the Venusian atmosphere compared to Lebonnois et al. (2016) are discussed, in terms of horizontal and vertical transport of the angular momentum by diurnal and semi-diurnal tides, barotropic and baroclinic waves, and Rossby and Kelvin type waves. Haus R., Kappel D. and Arnold G., 2014. Atmospheric thermal structure and cloud features in the southern hemisphere of Venus as retrieved from VIRTIS/VEX radiation measurements. Icarus



    カンザワ, ヒロシ; Hiroshi, KANZAWA


    The wind profiler is a powerful tool to study atmospheric circulation and transport processes because it can measure not only horizontal components but also the vertical component of wind. A wind profiler developed originally by the U.S. NOAA/Environmental Research Laboratories/Wave Propagation Laboratory can measure winds from 0.5-17km above the surface with an altitude resolution of 250m and time resolution under 1 hour. The profiler uses a 400MHz UHF band, and the area of the antenna is ab...

  4. Remote and Local SST Forcing in Shaping Asian-Australian Monsoon Anomalies


    Tim, LI; Y. C., TUNG; J. W., HWU; IPRC and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii; Central Weather Bureau


    The most striking feature of the Asian-Australian monsoon associated with the El Nino teleconnection is the evolution of anomalous anticyclones over the western North Pacific (WNP) and southeast Indian Ocean (SIO). In this study we investigated the relative role of remote and local SST forcing in shaping the monsoon anomalies with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Four idealized AGCM experiments were designed to isolate the effect of anomalous SST forcing from the tropical east...

  5. Large-Scale Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling. (United States)


    stronger tropical teleconnection linking -120 S-4 i-S----4 -0.5 the reference region and the Carribean Sea and vicin-I" I10 I- --s -- I .-’ " ities is...scale coupling between the tropical atmosphere and ocn in relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (USO) phenomenon is studied using both...connection. between Pacific tropical diabatic heating anomalies and extratropical circulation system over the North Pacific from East Asia to the

  6. Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study (United States)

    Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen


    As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

  7. Are there differences in atmospheric circulations between a 1.5°C and a 2.0°C warmer world? (United States)

    Seland Graff, Lise; Bethke, Ingo; Iversen, Trond; Li, Camille


    In this presentation, we use a multi-model ensemble of global atmospheric model simulations to examine how the atmospheric circulation at mid-latitudes may change in a world that experiences a warming of 1.5°C and of 2.0°C over pre-industrial conditions. The data are taken from a suite of simulations carried out for the international project "Half a degree Additional Warming, Prognosis and Projected Implications" (HAPPI), coordinated by Oxford and Bristol Universities as a follow-up of the "Paris agreement" of December 2015 ( The HAPPI data set includes simulation results from several (˜10) atmospheric models, each with 50-100 ensemble members covering 10-year long periods. This large sample size enables assessing the systematic climate response relative to the internal climate variability. We will present results from the present decade, as well as the 1.5°C and 2.0°C experiments. The presentation focuses on data from the interim version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1_Happi), but also includes data from the other models participating in the project as they become available. The analysis will mainly focus on changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation patterns, including the jet streams, the mid-latitude storm tracks, and the frequency and duration of blocking events. We would like to acknowledge the contributions of the modeling centers participating in the HAPPI project and the coordinators Myles Allen and Dann Mitchell.

  8. An observed connection between wintertime temperature anomalies over Northwest China and weather regime transitions in North Atlantic (United States)

    Li, Chao; Zhang, Qingyun


    In this study, the association between wintertime temperature anomalies over Northwest China and the weather regime transitions in North Atlantic on synoptic scale is analyzed by using observational surface air temperature (SAT) data and atmospheric reanalysis data. Daily SAT anomaly and duration time are used in order to define SAT anomaly cases. Differences with regard to the circulation anomalies over the Ural Mountains and the upstream North Atlantic area are evident. It is found that the colder than normal SAT is caused by the enhanced Ural high and associated southward flow over Northwest China. Time-lagged composites reveal possible connections between the SAT anomalies and the different development phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The Ural highs tend to be strengthened during the negative phase of NAO (NAO-) to Atlantic ridge transition, which are closely related to the downstream-propagating Rossby wave activity. The opposite circulation patterns are observed in the warm SAT cases. A cyclonic circulation anomaly is distinctly enhanced over the Urals during the positive phase of NAO (NAO+) to Scandinavian blocking transition, which would cause warmer SAT over Northwest China. Further analyses suggest that the intensified zonal wind over North Atlantic would favor the NAO- to Atlantic ridge transition, while the weakened zonal wind may be responsible for the transition between NAO+ and Scandinavian blocking.

  9. Reconstructing atmospheric circulation over southern New Zealand: Establishment of modern westerly airflow 5500 years ago and implications for Southern Hemisphere Holocene climate change (United States)

    Turney, C. S. M.; Wilmshurst, J. M.; Jones, R. T.; Wood, J. R.; Palmer, J. G.; Hogg, A. G.; Fenwick, P.; Crowley, S. F.; Privat, K.; Thomas, Z.


    Late-twentieth century changes in the intensity and migration of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have been implicated in spatially complex variability in atmospheric and ocean circulation, and ice-sheet dynamics, across the mid- to high-latitudes. A major uncertainty, however, is whether present day hemispheric-wide symmetrical airflow is representative of past behaviour. Here we report a multi-proxy study from Stewart Island and southern Fiordland, New Zealand (46-47°S) reconstructing Holocene changes at the northern limit of westerly airflow. Increased minerogenic input and a pronounced shift in cool-loving vegetation around 5500 years ago is consistent with the establishment of westerly airflow at this latitude in the southwest Pacific. In marked contrast, stronger winds are reported further south over the subantarctic Auckland (50°S) and Campbell (52°S) Islands from 8000 years ago. Intriguingly, reconstructions from the east Pacific suggest a weakening of core westerly airflow after 8500 years ago, but an expansion along the northern limits sometime after 5500 years ago. Our results suggest similar atmospheric circulation changes have been experienced in the Pacific since 5500 years ago, but indicate an expanded network of sites is needed to comprehensively test the driver(s) and impact(s) of Holocene mid-latitude westerly winds across the Southern Hemisphere.

  10. Dominant Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Systems for the Extreme Precipitation over the Western Sichuan Basin in Summer 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamin Hu


    Full Text Available The western Sichuan Basin (WSB is a rainstorm center influenced by complicated factors such as topography and circulation. Based on multivariable empirical orthogonal function technique for extreme precipitation processes (EPP in WSB in 2013, this study reveals the dominant circulation patterns. Results indicate that the leading modes are characterized by “Saddle” and “Sandwich” structures, respectively. In one mode, a TC from the South China Sea (SCS converts into the inverted trough and steers warm moist airflow northward into the WSB. At the same time, WPSH extends westward over the Yangtze River and conveys a southeasterly warm humid flow. In the other case, WPSH is pushed westward by TC in the Western Pacific and then merges with an anomalous anticyclone over SCS. The anomalous anticyclone and WPSH form a conjunction belt and convey the warm moist southwesterly airflow to meet with the cold flow over the WSB. The configurations of WPSH and TC in the tropic and the blocking and trough in the midhigh latitudes play important roles during the EPPs over the WSB. The persistence of EPPs depends on the long-lived large-scale circulation configuration steady over the suitable positions.

  11. The occurrence of hot weather in the Lublin-Felin and Czesławice in relation to atmospheric circulation (1966–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartoszek Krzysztof


    Full Text Available The occurrence of hot weather in the Lublin-Felin and Czesławice in relation to atmospheric circulation (1966−2010. The paper describes the occurrence of hot (tmax 25.1−30.0°C and very hot days (tmax >30°C in Lublin-Felin and Czesławice in the years 1966−2010. The analysis covers the long-term variability of such days, and duration of heat waves. Their circulation conditions were also determined, with indication of circulation types during which the probability of occurrence of hot and very hot days was the highest. In the study area, hot days occurred from April to September, and very hot days from May to August, with the highest frequency in July in both cases. In the period from 1991 to 2010, a considerably higher number of cases of very hot days were recorded than in the 1970s and 1980s. Moreover, they occurred in increasingly long sequences, contributing to more frequent occurrence of unfavourable thermal and humid conditions during the growing season of plants. The highest probability of occurrence of hot and very hot days was determined for circulation types with airflow from the southern sector, and the lowest from the northern sector. Should the upward trend in the frequency of very hot days continue, the risk of the effect of such unfavourable thermal conditions on the health and well-being of tourists and patients of the health resort in Nałęczów will also increase

  12. The increase in September precipitation in the Mediterranean region as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Nojarov, Peter


    The study analyzes changes in September precipitation in the Mediterranean region and their possible causes. The research period is 1950-2014. The main finding is that the reduction in aerosol pollution over Europe in the late twentieth century has led to an upward shift of air temperatures in the region, which in turn has reduced the meridional temperature gradient, leading to weakening and shift to the north of the Azores High (the north end of Hadley circulation). This northward shift placed the Mediterranean region in an area with decreasing SLP, which results in an increase in the number or intensity of cyclones, increase in cloudiness and precipitation and a decrease in air temperatures. In the period 1995-2014 the region (especially its eastern part) lies within the boundaries of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in September.

  13. On the effect of nuclear interactions in neutrino reactions with oxygen targets and its role in atmospheric neutrino anomaly; De l`effet des interactions nucleaires dans les reactions de neutrinos sur des cibles d`oxygene et de son role dans l`anomalie des neutrinos atmospheriques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marteau Jacques [Inst. de Physique Nucleaire, Lyon-1 Univ., 69 - Villeurbanne (France)


    Atmospheric neutrinos are produced by interactions of the cosmic rays with the atmosphere`s nuclei. The observed ratio of muonic to electronic neutrinos is smaller than the theoretical one (up to a factor 2), this is the so-called atmospheric anomaly. This anomaly could be linked to that observed in the solar neutrino experiments. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of nuclear correlations upon the interaction of the atmospheric neutrinos with the oxygen nuclei of the water Cherenkov detectors. The products of these interactions are detected and identified thanks to the light ring the produce. The events are classified according to the number of produced rings which is computed from the neutrino-oxygen event rates in each exclusive reaction channel. The interpretation of the experimental results has been up to now limited to the quasi-elastic nucleon and {Delta} channels but other reaction channels exist which can lead to identification problems. A special role is played by the non-pionic decay channels of the {Delta} resonance which induce single ring events that have not been considered so far. To calculate them we adopted the nuclear response formalism and started with a semi-classical approximation. This allowed us to take into account the nuclear correlations by solving exactly the RPA equations in the ring approximation. It was found that these correlations strongly modify the inclusive and exclusive neutrino-oxygen cross sections and absolute interaction rates while the ratio of the interaction rates {mu}/e is not very much affected. The analysis in the exclusive channels leads to the result that the number of pions predicted in the simulations is overestimated. In conclusion, this work has shown the importance of the nuclear correlations in the neutrino-oxygen interaction and its impact on the atmospheric neutrino anomaly. It goes beyond the usual quasi-elastic approximations and can be moreover extended to other target nuclei, such as iron

  14. Global trend analysis of surface CO simulated using the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model, EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy) (United States)

    Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos


    Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important trace gas in tropospheric chemistry. It directly influences the concentration of tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), and therefore regulates the lifetimes of various tropospheric trace gases. Since anthropogenic activity produces about 60% of the annual global emission of the tropospheric CO, temporal trend analysis of surface CO is needed to understand the increasing (decreasing) influence of humans on the cleansing capacity of the atmosphere. In this study, the global trend of surface CO from 2001 to 2010 was estimated using the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) model. The simulation is based on the emission scenario based on RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). The global EMAC simulations of monthly surface CO are evaluated with monthly MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) observations (i.e. MOP03TM), and the spatial correlations range from 0.87 to 0.97. The simulated trends are compared with the data from a global surface CO monitoring network, the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), which includes also the NOAA/CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Cooperative Air Sampling Network. Over the United States and Western Europe, the significant decreases of surface CO are estimated at -49.7±2.7 and -38.6±2.7 ppbv per decade. In contrast, the surface CO increased by +12.4±10.2 and +7.2±3.7 ppbv per decade over South America and South Africa, respectively.

  15. Fluoride pollution of atmospheric precipitation and its relationship with air circulation and weather patterns (Wielkopolski National Park, Poland)


    Walna, Barbara; Kurzyca, Iwona; Bednorz, Ewa; Kolendowicz, Leszek


    A 2-year study (2010?2011) of fluorides in atmospheric precipitation in the open area and in throughfall in Wielkopolski National Park (west-central Poland) showed their high concentrations, reaching a maximum value of 2?mg/l under the tree crowns. These high values indicate substantial deposition of up to 52?mg/m2/year. In 2011, over 51?% of open area precipitation was characterized by fluoride concentration higher than 0.10?mg/l, and in throughfall such concentrations were found in more tha...

  16. Characteristics and sources of tephra layers in the EPICA-Dome C ice record (East Antarctica): Implications for past atmospheric circulation and ice core stratigraphic correlations [rapid communication (United States)

    Narcisi, B.; Petit, J. R.; Delmonte, B.; Basile-Doelsch, I.; Maggi, V.


    Thirteen discrete air-fall tephra layers were identified in the last 200,000-yr section of the EPICA-Dome C ice record drilled in the East Antarctic plateau (75°06'S, 123°21'E). Quantitative grain size, glass particle morphology, and the grain-discrete major element composition of the glass fraction of these layers were investigated. Through comparison with literature data on the rock composition of Quaternary volcanic centres located within and around Antarctica, five tephra layers were attributed to South Sandwich volcanoes in the South Atlantic Ocean, two to South Shetland volcanoes (northern Antarctic Peninsula), two to Andean volcanoes, and four to Antarctic (Marie Byrd Land and Melbourne) provinces. The abundance of layers originating in the southern part of the Atlantic confirms that westerly atmospheric circulation spiralling towards East Antarctica prevailed over the last 200 ka. Moreover, the record of events from Antarctic centres suggests that atmospheric trajectories from West to East Antarctica can also be significant. A few ash layers are geochemically distinct and appear equivalent to levels from Vostok and Dome Fuji deep ice records, located ca. 600 km and ca. 2000 km, respectively, from Dome C on the Antarctic plateau. These layers provide unambiguous markers for future correlation with other Antarctic ice cores and circumpolar marine climatic records. They also provide reliable constraints to get a common timescale by glaciological modelling, and represent a first step towards absolute ice core dating.

  17. Fractionation and current time trends of PCB congeners: evolvement of distributions 1950–2010 studied using a global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lammel


    Full Text Available PCBs are ubiquitous environmental pollutants expected to decline in abiotic environmental media in response to decreasing primary emissions since the 1970s. A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with embedded dynamic sub-models for atmospheric aerosols and the marine biogeochemistry and air-surface exchange processes with soils, vegetation and the cryosphere is used to study the transport and fate of four PCB congeners covering a range of 3–7 chlorine atoms.

    The change of the geographic distribution of the PCB mixture reflects the sources and sinks' evolvement over time. Globally, secondary emissions (re-volatilisation from surfaces are on the long term increasingly gaining importance over primary emissions. Secondary emissions are most important for the congeners with 5–6 chlorine atoms. Correspondingly, the levels of these congeners are predicted to decrease slowest. Changes in congener mixture composition (fractionation are characterized both geographically and temporally. In high latitudes enrichment of the lighter, less persistent congeners and more delayed decreasing levels in response to decreasing emissions are found. The delivery of the contaminants to high latitudes is predicted to be more efficient than previously suggested. The results suggest furthermore that the effectiveness of emission control measures may significantly vary among substances. The trends of decline of organic contaminant levels in the abiotic environmental media do not only vary with latitude (slow in high latitudes, but do also show longitudinal gradients.

  18. An energy and potential enstrophy conserving scheme for the shallow water equations. [orography effects on atmospheric circulation (United States)

    Arakawa, A.; Lamb, V. R.


    A three-dimensional finite difference scheme for the solution of the shallow water momentum equations which accounts for the conservation of potential enstrophy in the flow of a homogeneous incompressible shallow atmosphere over steep topography as well as for total energy conservation is presented. The scheme is derived to be consistent with a reasonable scheme for potential vorticity advection in a long-term integration for a general flow with divergent mass flux. Numerical comparisons of the characteristics of the present potential enstrophy-conserving scheme with those of a scheme that conserves potential enstrophy only for purely horizontal nondivergent flow are presented which demonstrate the reduction of computational noise in the wind field with the enstrophy-conserving scheme and its convergence even in relatively coarse grids.

  19. Meridional Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation and its influence on the Biogeochemical Cycling of Carbon West of the Antarctic Peninsula (United States)

    Hughes, M. G.; Gabric, A. J.


    The region of the Southern Ocean directly adjacent to the Western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming on the planet. The observed temperature increase has been coincident with a trend toward a positive Southern Annual Mode which introduces relatively warm northerly winds onto the peninsula. Furthermore, deep meridional waters (Upper Circumpolar Deep Water) can upwell onto the Antarctic continental shelf adjacent to the peninsula, introducing heat and nutrients to surface waters. The regional warming trend and the complex atmosphere - ocean interactions have altered the extent, duration and thickness of sea-ice in shelf waters. These environmental changes affect phytoplankton community distribution, bloom timing and species composition in what is typically a highly productive region. The efficiency of regional biogeochemical cycling of carbon may also be significantly altered. Understanding how environmental change affects biological production is key in understanding the regional biological carbon pump. This study brings together Chlorophyll-a climatology, derived from satellite data, to quantify changes in spring phytoplankton blooms. This time series is then used to investigate how fluctuations in upwelling of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, fluctuations in large scale climate indices and sea-ice conditions modify marine productivity. Conclusions are also drawn as to how this may affect the regional carbon pump.

  20. Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Karabil


    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS index. The sea-level pressure (SLP BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N and (20° E, 70° N and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N and (20° E, 60° N. This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993–2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible

  1. Atmospheric circulation patterns and geochemistry time series from ice/firn cores and snow samples of central Asian glaciers (Pamir, Tien Shan and Altai). (United States)

    Aizen, E. M.; Aizen, V. B.; Joswiak, D. R.; Mayewski, P. A.


    Combination of high mountain ice-core isotope-geochemistry, ground based aerosol monitoring, NASA remote sensed and a NOAA atmospheric pressure distribution data were used to receive information on sources of dust/loess transport, their time and spatial extension in modern and pre-industrial time. Hundreds of samples from snow pits and ice/firn cores obtained from central Asian glaciers were collected, processed and analyzed. The NASA RS products address the gap in interpretation of available snow, firn and ice records by providing the spatial resolution necessary for identifying possible local and regional-scale dust sources, transport routes and depositions. NOAA Hypslit program modeled the air back-trajectories allowed to found association between the ice core geochemistry records and aerosol sources. To find the circulation patterns, which are closely associated with geochemistry ice core/snow pit records, the correlation coefficients between the Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the atmospheric circulation patterns and geochemistry time coefficients for first two unrotated scores were computed. The loess / dust storm sources with corresponding geo-chemical composition (trace elements, major ions and dust particles) in western, central and northern Asia were identified: 1. Tajik loess deposition and Iran, Afghanistan /Turkmenistan sands are for the Pamir. For example, the Pamir ice core records that associated with Tajikistan loess deposition are characterized by high concentrations of REEs and Al, high or median content of Ca, and a background S concentration. Samples from the Pamir Mountains differed in having low concentrations of Gadolinium. Occasional intrusions of Chinese loess to Pamir glaciers are not excluded. REE profile of pilot Pamir cores documented one of the most extreme droughts of 2001 and 2002 that developed in south-west Asia. 2. Chinese loess deposition in the Takla Makhan, sands in the Tajikistan Deserts and western Gobi, and dust aerosols

  2. Atmospheric circulation patterns, cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally intense convective rainfall associated with debris flow initiation in the Dolomite Alps of northeastern Italy (United States)

    Underwood, S. Jeffrey; Schultz, Michael D.; Berti, Metteo; Gregoretti, Carlo; Simoni, Alessandro; Mote, Thomas L.; Saylor, Anthony M.


    The Dolomite Alps of northeastern Italy experience debris flows with great frequency during the summer months. An ample supply of unconsolidated material on steep slopes and a summer season climate regime characterized by recurrent thunderstorms combine to produce an abundance of these destructive hydro-geologic events. In the past, debris flow events have been studied primarily in the context of their geologic and geomorphic characteristics. The atmospheric contribution to these mass-wasting events has been limited to recording rainfall and developing intensity thresholds for debris mobilization. This study aims to expand the examination of atmospheric processes that preceded both locally intense convective rainfall (LICR) and debris flows in the Dolomite region. 500 hPa pressure level plots of geopotential heights were constructed for a period of 3 days prior to debris flow events to gain insight into the synoptic-scale processes which provide an environment conducive to LICR in the Dolomites. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash data recorded at the meso-scale were incorporated to assess the convective environment proximal to debris flow source regions. Twelve events were analyzed and from this analysis three common synoptic-scale circulation patterns were identified. Evaluation of CG flashes at smaller spatial and temporal scales illustrated that convective processes vary in their production of CF flashes (total number) and the spatial distribution of flashes can also be quite different between events over longer periods. During the 60 min interval immediately preceding debris flow a majority of cases exhibited spatial and temporal colocation of LICR and CG flashes. Also a number of CG flash parameters were found to be significantly correlated to rainfall intensity prior to debris flow initiation.

  3. Mexico Terrain Corrected Free Air Anomalies (97) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 2' gravity anomaly grid for Mexico, North-Central America and the Western Caribbean Sea is NOT the input data set used in the development of the MEXICO97 model....

  4. SEG US Bouguer Gravity Anomaly Grid (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The SEG gravity data are the product of the ad hoc Gravity Anomaly Map (GAM) Committee, sponsored by the Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) and the U.S....

  5. Coral Reef Watch, Temperature Anomaly, 50 km (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA Coral Reef Watch distributes SST anomaly data using a combination of the POES AVHRR Global Area Coverage data, and data from a climatological database. AVHRR...

  6. The Role of the Ozone Hole and Elevated Greenhouse Gases as Drivers of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Increase Via Changes in Atmospheric Circulation (United States)

    Pope, J. O.; Orr, A.; Marshall, G.; Abraham, N. L.


    Antarctic sea ice extent has displayed an overall increase across the duration of the 35-year satellite record. However, the cause of this increase is uncertain, with both anthropogenic and natural forcing changes proposed as drivers. Here, we investigate two possible anthropogenic forcings that could influence sea ice extent via changes in the near-surface wind field over the Southern Ocean; (i) ozone depletion and (ii) greenhouse gas increases. We employ an atmosphere-only version of the UK Met Office model, HadGEM3, with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice coupled to the UKCA interactive climate-chemistry model. Starting from a pre-industrial control simulation, two additional simulations were spun off, one investigating the forcing from increased 21st century greenhouse gases and one investigating the forcing from the ozone hole. Based on the work of Holland & Kwok (2012) we analyse the changes in Antarctic circulation, in particular the surface wind properties which have been shown to correlate with sea ice extent. We examine changes in the surface wind field in these two model simulations relative to that in the pre-industrial control simulation, compare them to observed changes during the satellite record, and assess their potential role in driving a response in sea ice extent at both continental and regional scales.

  7. Climate impact of contrails: investigations by means of an atmospheric general circulation model; Klimawirkung von Kondensstreifen: Untersuchungen mit einem globalen atmosphaerischen Zirkulationsmodell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marquart, S. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere


    A parameterization of line-shaped contrails for use within the framework of a general circulation model (ECHAM) was developed for the first time. Contrail coverage, optical properties and radiative forcing are calculated at any model time step depending in a physically based manner on the respective conditions in the ambient air. In addition, possible effects on atmospheric parameters can be simulated, allowing for the determination of a climate sensitivity parameter especially for line-shaped contrails. Regional contrail cover as well as the large range of simulated optical depth values show a fair qualitative and quantitative agreement with observations. Sensitivity studies result in a lower global radiative forcing of line-shaped contrails than estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1999). Remaining uncertainties are mainly associated with poor knowledge of microphysical properties such as ice water content, particle shape and size. Considering future changes in air traffic density, and aircraft technology, as well as anthropogenic climate change, an increase of global contrail cover and radiative forcing by roughly a factor of four between 1992 and 2050 is simulated. (orig.)

  8. Atmospheric electric field anomalies associated with solar flare/coronal mass ejection events and solar energetic charged particle "Ground Level Events" (United States)

    Kasatkina, E. A.; Shumilov, O. I.; Rycroft, M. J.; Marcz, F.; Frank-Kamenetsky, A. V.


    We discuss the fair weather atmospheric electric field signatures of three major solar energetic charged particle events which occurred in on 15 April 2001, 18 April and 4 November, and their causative solar flares/coronal mass ejections (SF/CMEs). Only the 15 April 2001 shows clear evidence for Ez variation associated to SF/CME events and the other two events may support this hypothesis as well although for them the meteorological data were not available. All three events seem to be associated with relativistic solar protons (i.e. protons with energies >450 MeV) of the Ground Level Event (GLE) type. The study presents data on variations of the vertical component of the atmospheric electric field (Ez) measured at the auroral station Apatity (geomagnetic latitude: 63.8°, the polar cap station Vostok (geomagnetic latitude: -89.3°) and the middle latitude stations Voyeikovo (geomagnetic latitude: 56.1°) and Nagycenk (geomagnetic latitude: 47.2°). A significant disturbance in the atmospheric electric field is sometimes observed close to the time of the causative solar flare; the beginning of the electric field perturbation at Apatity is detected one or two hours before the flare onset and the GLE onset. Atmospheric electric field records at Vostok and Voyeikovo show a similar disturbance at the same time for the 15 April 2001 event. Some mechanisms responsible for the electric field perturbations are considered.

  9. Laboratory oxygen isotopic study of sulfur (IV) oxidation: Origin of the mass‐independent oxygen isotopic anomaly in atmospheric sulfates and sulfate mineral deposits on Earth

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Savarino, Joël; Lee, Charles C. W; Thiemens, Mark H


    .... In the aqueous phase, sulfur oxidation by H 2 O 2 , O 3 , and O 2 , catalyzed by Fe(III) and Mn(II) were studied. In the gas phase we have investigated the only relevant reaction for the atmosphere...

  10. Multi-time-scale hydroclimate dynamics of a regional watershed and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation: Application to the Seine river catchment, France (United States)

    Massei, N.; Dieppois, B.; Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Fossa, M.; Laignel, B.; Debret, M.


    In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating correlation between large and local scales, empirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: (i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and (ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the links between large and local scales were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach, which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing monthly regional hydrometeorological processes (predictand: precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector). This

  11. Understanding severe winter haze events in the North China Plain in 2014: roles of climate anomalies (United States)

    Yin, Zhicong; Wang, Huijun; Chen, Huopo


    Atmospheric pollution has become a serious environmental and social problem in China. Over the past 30 years, the number of winter (December-February) haze days over the North China Plain (WHDNCP) was greatest in 2014. In addition to anthropogenic influence, climate anomalies also played a role. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the anomalous atmosphere circulations associated with haze pollution of this year in detail. Near the surface, the weaker East Asian winter monsoon pattern, causing southerly winds over the North China Plain, could aggravate the situation of haze. In the lower and middle troposphere, taking the anticyclone circulation over North China as an intermediate system, the positive phases of the eastern Atlantic/western Russia (EA/WR), the western Pacific (WP), and the Eurasia (EU) patterns led to a worse air pollution dispersion condition that contributed to a larger number of WHDNCP. In 2014, these three patterns could be recognized from the wind anomalies in the lower troposphere. The preceding autumn (September-November) Arctic sea ice (ASI) anomalies over the eastern Hemisphere and the warmer winter surface over Eurasia might have induced or intensified the positive EA/WR pattern in 2014. These two external forcings, together with the pre-autumn sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific, might have also stimulated or enhanced the positive EU-like patterns. The anomalous surface temperature in autumn 2014 was efficient in intensifying anomalous circulations such as the positive phase of the WP pattern. The opposite case of minimum WHDNCP in 2010 further supports the mechanism of how EA/WR and WP patterns and associated external factors altered the local climate conditions to impact the WHDNCP.

  12. Modeling of North Pacific Climate Variability Forced by Oceanic Heat Flux Anomalies. (United States)

    Yulaeva, Elena; Schneider, Niklas; Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.


    Potential predictability of low-frequency climate changes in the North Pacific depends on two main factors. The first is the sensitivity of the atmosphere to ocean-induced anomalies at the sea surface in midlatitudes. The second is the degree of teleconnectivity of the tropical low-frequency variability to midlatitudes. In contrast to the traditional approach of prescribing sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, the response of a coupled atmospheric general circulation (CCM3)-mixed layer ocean model to oceanic perturbations of the mixed layer heat budget is examined. Since positive oceanic heat flux perturbations partially increase SST anomalies (locally), and partially are vented directly into the atmosphere, expressing boundary forcing on the atmosphere by prescribing upper-ocean heat flux anomalies allows for better understanding of the physical mechanism of low-frequency variability in midlatitudes. In the framework of this approach SST is considered to be a part of the adjustment of the coupled system rather than an external forcing. Wintertime model responses to mixed layer heat budget perturbations of up to 40 W m2 in the Kuroshio extension region and in the tropical central Pacific show statistically significant anomalies of 500-mb geopotential height (Z500) in the midlatitudes. The response to the tropical forcing resembles the well-known Pacific-North American pattern, one of the leading modes of internal variability of the control run. The amplitude of the Z500 geopotential height reaches 40 m in the region of the Aleutian low. The response of Z500 to forcing in the Kuroshio Current extension region resembles the mixture of western Pacific and Pacific-North American patterns, the first two modes of the internal variability of the atmosphere. In midlatitudes this response is equivalent barotropic, with the maximum of 80 m at (60°N, 160°W). Examination of the vorticity and thermodynamic budgets reveals the crucial role of submonthly transient eddies in

  13. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.


    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  14. Circulation of Venusian atmosphere at 95-100 km apparent motions of 1.27 μm nightglow of O2 observed by VIRTIS on board Venus Express (United States)

    Gorinov, D.; Khatuntsev, I.; Zasova, L.; Tyurin, A.


    This work is aimed at understanding the complex atmosphere motion on Venus in the altitude range of 95-100 km. It is located above the area of dominance of the retrograde zonal superrotation (RZS) and below the area of dominance of the subsolar-antisolar circulation (SS-AS), thus being important for the global circulation models. The work analyzes the entire dataset of the VIRTIS instrument (Venus Express spacecraft). Wind velocities are calculated after tracking the displacements of the markers in the cloud-like oxygen airglow. The resulting distribution of the motion indicates a stronger influence of the SS-AS and an almost negligible of the RZS, with an influence of other presumed mechanisms of circulation. Both zonal and meridional components of the motion manifest dependence on latitude and local time. Several examples of the orbit-to-orbit variation show evolution and a high variability of the winds in localized areas.

  15. Parietaria judaica flowering phenology, pollen production, viability and atmospheric circulation, and expansive ability in the urban environment: impacts of environmental factors (United States)

    Fotiou, Christina; Damialis, Athanasios; Krigas, Nikolaos; Halley, John M.; Vokou, Despoina


    Parietaria judaica (Urticaceae) grows abundantly in urban areas of the Mediterranean region. Its pollen is a major allergy source. We studied the species' distribution and abundance in and around Thessaloniki (Greece), pollen production and pollen season. We also examined how urban pollution affects pollen viability. Our ultimate goal was to obtain an estimate of the species' performance and ability to expand under different environmental conditions related to climate change. We mapped P. judaica and the other Urticaceae species. In a north- and a south-facing population, we recorded the progress of P. judaica flowering and estimated the pollen content per flower, shoot and surface unit. We concurrently assessed atmospheric circulation of Urticaceae pollen. We estimated P. judaica pollen viability and Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations in plants collected from sites differing in traffic intensity. P. judaica is the most abundant Urticaceae species in the area; its occurrence has increased dramatically over the last 100 years. Production of flowers is intense in spring and autumn. Flowering started 12 days earlier in the south-facing population in spring, and 3 days later in autumn. Pollen production was higher in spring and in the south-facing population. Flower and pollen production were positively correlated with the size of the plant and the flower, respectively. Copper and lead concentrations in plants were positively correlated with pollen viability, which was higher for plants collected from high-traffic sites. P. judaica has a high phenotypic plasticity; this is a feature that promotes success of expansive and invasive species. It is also well adapted to warm and polluted urban environments. The climatic change forecast for the Mediterranean region could provoke earlier, longer, and more pronounced flowering and, consequently, more P. judaica pollen in the air. In return, this would result in increased severity of Parietaria pollinosis.

  16. Variations in extreme precipitation on the Loess Plateau using a high-resolution dataset and their linkages with atmospheric circulation indices (United States)

    Zhao, Guangju; Zhai, Jianqing; Tian, Peng; Zhang, Limei; Mu, Xingmin; An, Zhengfeng; Han, Mengwei


    Assessing regional patterns and trends in extreme precipitation is crucial for facilitating flood control and drought adaptation because extreme climate events have more damaging impacts on society and ecosystems than simple shifts in the mean values. In this study, we employed daily precipitation data from 231 climate stations spanning 1961 to 2014 to explore the changes in precipitation extremes on the Loess Plateau, China. Nine of the 12 extreme precipitation indices suggested decreasing trends, and only the annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and R10 declined significantly: - 0.69 mm/a and - 0.023 days/a at the 95% confidence level. The spatial patterns in all of the extreme precipitation indices indicated mixed trends on the Loess Plateau, with decreasing trends in the precipitation extremes at the majority of the stations examined in the Fen-Wei River valley and high-plain plateau. Most of extreme precipitation indices suggested apparent regional differences, whereas R25 and R20 had spatially similar patterns on the Loess Plateau, with many stations revealing no trends. In addition, we found a potential decreasing trend in rainfall amounts and rainy days and increasing trends in rainfall intensities and storm frequencies in some regions due to increasing precipitation events in recent years. The relationships between extreme rainfall events and atmospheric circulation indices suggest that the weakening trend in the East Asia summer monsoon has limited the northward extension of the rainfall belt to northern China, thereby leading to a decrease in rainfall on the Loess Plateau.

  17. Variability of onset and retreat of the rainy season in mainland China and associations with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Hao, Zhenchun; Shao, Quanxi; Hao, Jie; Nyima, Tsring


    Precipitation plays an important role in both environment and human society and is a significant factor in many scientific researches such as water resources, agriculture and climate impact studies. The onset and retreat of rainy season are useful features to understand the variability of precipitation under the influence of climate change. In this study, the characteristics of onset and retreat in mainland China are investigated. The multi-scale moving t-test was applied to determine rainy season and K-means cluster analysis was used to divide China into sub-regions to better investigate rainy season features. The possible linkage of changing characteristics of onset and retreat to climate factors were also explored. Results show that: (1) the onset started from middle March in the southeast of China to early June in the northwest and rainy season ended earliest in the northwest and southeast while the central China had the latest retreat; (2) Delayed onset and advanced retreat over time were observed in many parts of China, together with overall stable or increased rainy-season precipitation, would likely lead to higher probability of flooding; (3) The onset (retreat) was associated with the increased (decreased) number of cyclones in eastern China and anticyclone near the South China Sea. Delayed onset, and advanced retreat were likely related to cold and warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the conventional El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions, respectively. These results suggest that predictability of rainy season can be improved through the atmospheric circulation and SST, and help water resources management and agricultural planning.

  18. Global runoff anomalies over 1993–2009 estimated from coupled Land–Ocean–Atmosphere water budgets and its relation with climate variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munier


    Full Text Available Whether the global runoff (or freshwater discharge from land to the ocean is currently increasing and the global water cycle is intensifying is still a controversial issue. Here we compute land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere water budgets and derive two independent estimates of the global runoff over the period 1993–2009. Water storage variations in the land, ocean and atmosphere reservoirs are estimated from different types of data sets: atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, satellite altimetry and in situ ocean temperature data (the difference between altimetry based global mean sea level and ocean thermal expansion providing an estimate of the ocean mass component. These data sets are first validated using independent data, and then the global runoff is computed from the two methods. Results for the global runoff show a very good correlation between both estimates. More importantly, no significant trend is observed over the whole period. Besides, the global runoff appears to be clearly impacted by large-scale climate phenomena such as major ENSO events. To infer this, we compute the zonal runoff over four latitudinal bands and set up for each band a new index (combined runoff index obtained by optimization of linear combinations of various climate indices. Results show that, in particular, the intertropical and northern mid-latitude runoffs are mainly driven by ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO with opposite behavior. Indeed, the zonal runoff in the intertropical zone decreases during major El Niño events, whereas it increases in the northern mid-latitudes, suggesting that water masses over land are shifted northward/southward during El Niño/La Niña. In addition to this study, we propose an innovative method to estimate the global ocean thermal expansion. The method is based on the assumption that the difference between both runoff estimates is mainly due to the thermal expansion term not accounted for in

  19. Understanding the Influence of Terrestrial Water Anomalies on Summer Surface Air Temperature Variability over North America (United States)

    Merrifield, A.; Johnson, N. C.; Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.


    Understanding natural variability in the climate system is vital for the detection and attribution of anthropogenically induced change in General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCM predictions of winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability generally are skillful at midlatitudes due to a strong coupling with tropical variability through atmospheric teleconnections. When atmospheric circulation weakens during the summer, however, GCM predictions of SAT variability are less skillful than during the winter, particularly over North America. This study examines the extent that terrestrial water anomalies in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) equivalent water thickness product influence patterns of summer SAT variability over North America from 2002 to 2014. Analysis of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) CM2.1 10-member ensemble indicates there is a significant land surface feedback on summer SAT. The GRACE product provides a metric for evaluating spurious soil moisture signals, which likely enhance summer SAT variability in the AMIP ensemble. To further investigate spatial patterns in soil moisture, simulated (AMIP) and reanalysis (Climate Prediction Center) rainfall patterns are used to demonstrate a potential cause-effect relationship between precipitation and terrestrial water anomalies. Finally, we evaluate whether soil moisture is a useful diagnostic for enhancing predictions of anomalous summer heat waves over North America.

  20. Moderate to heavy cold-weather precipitation occurrences in Tehran and the associated circulation types (United States)

    Khansalari, Sakineh; Raziei, Tayeb; Mohebalhojeh, Ali Reza; Ahmadi-Givi, Farhang


    Large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with 133 moderate to heavy cold-weather precipitation events recorded at Mehrabad station in Tehran, Iran, during the period 1951-2013 are analysed. To this end, the performance of un-rotated, orthogonally rotated and obliquely rotated solutions of T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is examined in classifying the atmospheric circulations into a few representative circulation types (CTs). The T-mode PCAs were applied to the 500-hPa geopotential height for the events in a domain from 10∘E to 70∘E and from 20∘N to 50∘N. The first six leading principal components were retained and then orthogonally and obliquely rotated using varimax and promax solutions, respectively. Statistical inter-comparison of the CTs obtained using the three solutions suggests that the obliquely rotated solution is the better choice for circulation classification in the present study. The six CTs obtained using the oblique rotation were then linked to the daily total precipitation and daily mean temperature variability at Tehran station as well as to the standardized anomalies of the daily total precipitation and mean daily temperature of a dense network of stations distributed across Iran. It is found that the CTs identified, though generally comparable in producing significant precipitation in Tehran, vary in their potential to bring cold weather and generate snowfall in Tehran specifically and in the country in general. While the first three CTs give rise to regional patterns of standardized precipitation anomalies centred in Tehran, the next three CTs leave a pronounced precipitation signature almost across the whole country. As regards the standardized temperature anomalies, with the exception of one CT that causes deep and widespread negative standardized anomalies over most parts of the country, the other CTs are characterized with a dipolar structure of a deep intrusion of cold weather to the west and prevailing warm weather

  1. Chiral anomalies and differential geometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zumino, B.


    Some properties of chiral anomalies are described from a geometric point of view. Topics include chiral anomalies and differential forms, transformation properties of the anomalies, identification and use of the anomalies, and normalization of the anomalies. 22 references. (WHK)

  2. Detecting Biosphere anomalies hotspots (United States)

    Guanche-Garcia, Yanira; Mahecha, Miguel; Flach, Milan; Denzler, Joachim


    The current amount of satellite remote sensing measurements available allow for applying data-driven methods to investigate environmental processes. The detection of anomalies or abnormal events is crucial to monitor the Earth system and to analyze their impacts on ecosystems and society. By means of a combination of statistical methods, this study proposes an intuitive and efficient methodology to detect those areas that present hotspots of anomalies, i.e. higher levels of abnormal or extreme events or more severe phases during our historical records. Biosphere variables from a preliminary version of the Earth System Data Cube developed within the CAB-LAB project ( have been used in this study. This database comprises several atmosphere and biosphere variables expanding 11 years (2001-2011) with 8-day of temporal resolution and 0.25° of global spatial resolution. In this study, we have used 10 variables that measure the biosphere. The methodology applied to detect abnormal events follows the intuitive idea that anomalies are assumed to be time steps that are not well represented by a previously estimated statistical model [1].We combine the use of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models with a distance metric like Mahalanobis distance to detect abnormal events in multiple biosphere variables. In a first step we pre-treat the variables by removing the seasonality and normalizing them locally (μ=0,σ=1). Additionally we have regionalized the area of study into subregions of similar climate conditions, by using the Köppen climate classification. For each climate region and variable we have selected the best ARMA parameters by means of a Bayesian Criteria. Then we have obtained the residuals by comparing the fitted models with the original data. To detect the extreme residuals from the 10 variables, we have computed the Mahalanobis distance to the data's mean (Hotelling's T^2), which considers the covariance matrix of the joint

  3. Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features (United States)

    Pfahl, S.


    Extreme weather events in Europe are closely linked to anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and in particular to circulation features like cyclones and atmospheric blocking. In this study, this linkage is systematically characterised with the help of conditional cyclone and blocking frequencies during precipitation, wind gust and temperature extremes at various locations in Europe. Such conditional frequency fields can serve as a dynamical fingerprint of the extreme events and yield insights into their most important physical driving mechanisms. Precipitation extremes over the ocean and over flat terrain are shown to be closely related to cyclones in the vicinity and the associated dynamical lifting. For extreme precipitation over complex terrain, cyclone anomalies are found at more remote locations, favouring the flow of moist air towards the topography. Wind gust extremes are associated with cyclone and blocking anomalies in opposite directions, with the cyclones occurring mostly over the North and Baltic seas for extreme events in central Europe. This setting is associated with pronounced surface pressure gradients and thus high near-surface wind velocities. Hot temperature extremes in northern and central Europe typically occur in the vicinity of a blocking anticyclone, where subsidence and radiative forcing are strong. Over southern Europe, blocking anomalies are shifted more to the north or northeast, indicating a more important role of warm air advection. Large-scale flow conditions for cold extremes are similar at many locations in Europe, with blocking anomalies over the North Atlantic and northern Europe and cyclone anomalies southeast of the cold extreme, both contributing to the advection of cold air masses. This characterisation of synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms can be helpful for better understanding and anticipating weather extremes and their long-term changes.

  4. North Atlantic storm track response to decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (United States)

    Frankignoul, C.; Msadek, R.; Li, L.


    The mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation response to a sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly induced by decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a climate model is investigated using prescribed change experiments with its atmospheric component coupled to a slab ocean. The prescribed SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is the surface signature of the AMOC influence on the atmosphere detected in the coupled simulation. It follows the AMOC by a few years and resembles the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A diagnostic analysis with daily data emphasizes the role of transient-eddy forcing in shaping and maintaining the equilibrium response. We show that in response to an intensified AMOC, the North Atlantic storm tracks are enhanced and shifted northward during summer, consistently with a strengthening of the westerlies. The winter response to the AMOC-induced North Atlantic warming is an intensification of the subtropical jet and a southward shift of the Atlantic storm track activity, resulting in an equatorward shift of the polar jet. The atmospheric response is highly non linear in both seasons as the result of a strong interaction between transient eddies and the mean flow. This study emphasizes that decadal fluctuations of the AMOC can affect the storm tracks location and intensity, both in winter and summer, leading to significant dynamical changes in the atmosphere associated with global climate impacts.

  5. Snow anomaly events from historical documents in eastern China during the past two millennia and implication for low-frequency variability of AO/NAO and PDO (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Wang, Xiaohua; Sun, Junying


    Models and instrumental data indicate that the spatial and temporal variations of snow cover are significantly related to atmospheric circulation (e.g. the AO/NAO). Here, we present historical snow anomaly events during the past two millennia that provide a unique temporal window to studying long-term AO/NAO, a prominent phenomenon in wintertime. Direct descriptions such as ``no snow during the winter'' and ``pray God for snow'' are interpreted as convincing evidence for snow anomalies. The variations of positive/negative snow abnormal events show clear decadal to century variations during the past two millennia. Based on the previous instrumental research and comparison with other reconstruction data, we suggest the Index of Abnormal Snow (IAS) may be an AO-like atmospheric variability. The winter during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (AD 900-1300) might be strongly influenced by a predominantly positive AO with less snow condition, whereas the Little Ice Age (LIA) (AD 1300-1900) by negative AO concomitant with heavier snowfalls in East Asia. Our data show that a warm climate period (the MWP)/a cold period (the LIA) can be perturbed by a cold spell/a warm spell which are linked with a change in atmospheric circulation. Low-frequency variability of snow records may be intrinsic to the natural climate system. Although the dynamic mechanisms linking snow anomalies with atmospheric circulation (the AO/NAO, the PDO) is unclear on the decadal to century time scales, Pacific Ocean may play an important role in regulating atmospheric circulations since the IAS is highly correlated with the reconstruction of PDO.

  6. Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale (United States)

    Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja


    following questions. How is the interannual variability of the observed precipitation gradient related to atmospheric circulation east (Amazon basin) and west (south-east Pacific) of the study region? If those relations are quantifiable, are there any forecast potentials for the characteristics of the precipitation gradient during the raining season? The results of the study provide valuable information needed to understand the generation of rainfall in the frame of a case study for the largest metropolitan area that is located at the arid Pacific coast of Peru. This information may also be useful for local managers in order to optimise water resource management and land use strategies.

  7. Detecting primary precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China (United States)

    Tan, Guirong; Ren, Hong-Li; Chen, Haishan; You, Qinglong


    This study aims to detect the primary precursors and impact mechanisms for January surface temperature anomaly (JSTA) events in China against the background of global warming, by comparing the causes of two extreme JSTA events occurring in 2008 and 2011 with the common mechanisms inferred from all typical episodes during 1979-2008. The results show that these two extreme events exhibit atmospheric circulation patterns in the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia, with a positive anomaly center over the Ural Mountains and a negative one to the south of Lake Baikal (UMLB), which is a pattern quite similar to that for all the typical events. However, the Eurasian teleconnection patterns in the 2011 event, which are accompanied by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, are different to those of the typical events and the 2008 event. We further find that a common anomalous signal appearing in early summer over the tropical Indian Ocean may be responsible for the following late-winter Eurasian teleconnections and the associated JSTA events in China. We show that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the preceding summer over the western Indian Ocean (WIO) are intimately related to the UMLB-like circulation pattern in the following January. Positive WIOSSTAs in early summer tend to induce strong UMLB-like circulation anomalies in January, which may result in anomalously or extremely cold events in China, which can also be successfully reproduced in model experiments. Our results suggest that the WIOSSTAs may be a useful precursor for predicting JSTA events in China.

  8. Southern hemisphere climate variability as represented by an ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, A


    Full Text Available , 1996: Relationship of air temperature in New Zealand to regional anomalies in sea-surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Int. J. Climatol., 16, 405?425. Beraki, A., D. DeWitt, W.A. Landman and O. Cobus, 2011: Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled... variability as represented by an ocean-atmosphere coupled model Asmerom Beraki1,2, Willem A. Landman2,3 and David DeWitt4 1South African Weather Service Pretoria, South Africa, 2Departement of Geography...

  9. Discovery of atmospheric neutrino oscillations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kajita, Takaaki [Tokyo Univ., Inst. for Cosmic Ray Research, Kashiwa, Chiba (Japan)


    Cosmic ray particles entering the atmosphere interact with the air nuclei produce neutrinos. These neutrinos are called atmospheric neutrinos. The atmospheric neutrino anomaly observed in Kamiokande is now understood as due to neutrino oscillations by high statistics measurements of the atmospheric neutrinos in Super-Kamiokande. The studies of the atmospheric neutrinos have matured into detailed studies of neutrino masses and mixings. (author)

  10. Lymphatic Anomalies Registry (United States)


    Lymphatic Malformation; Generalized Lymphatic Anomaly (GLA); Central Conducting Lymphatic Anomaly; CLOVES Syndrome; Gorham-Stout Disease ("Disappearing Bone Disease"); Blue Rubber Bleb Nevus Syndrome; Kaposiform Lymphangiomatosis; Kaposiform Hemangioendothelioma/Tufted Angioma; Klippel-Trenaunay Syndrome; Lymphangiomatosis

  11. Arctic Ocean geostrophic circulation 2003-2014 (United States)

    Armitage, T.; Bacon, S.; Ridout, A.; Tsamados, M.


    We present a 12-year record of geostrophic currents in the ice-covered and ice-free Arctic Ocean derived from Envisat and CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and examine their seasonal to decadal variability. Geostrophic currents across the Arctic Ocean increased in the late 2000s and, in particular, the Beaufort gyre circulation accelerated significantly in autumn 2007. At this time, the Beaufort Sea saw strong and persistent anticylonic atmospheric circulation anomalies, a record low sea ice extent and an associated dramatic loss of multiyear sea ice, and a consequently thinner and more mobile autumn ice pack. These factors combined to bring about high ocean surface stress, strong Ekman convergence, and anomalously strong geostrophic current speeds in the south-eastern Beaufort Sea in the period 2003 to 2014. Current speeds in the south-eastern Beaufort Sea remained higher until 2011, after which they decreased to speeds representative of the period 2003-2006. Meanwhile, there was an almost three-fold increase in the westward current at the western periphery of the Beaufort gyre between 2003 and 2014. This likely played a more important role in advecting old ice from the southern Beaufort Sea to the Siberian shelf seas where it is more easily melted in summer compared to ice that is re-circulated in the Beaufort gyre. The southward current through Fram Start increased between 2003 and 2012 before slowing somewhat by the end of the time period. Seasonal fields of eddy kinetic energy reveal high eddy activity congruent with the Chukchi plateau and Northwind Ridge. Both the Beaufort gyre circulation and the southward current through Fram Strait are strongest in autumn and winter, modulated by the seasonal strength of the Beaufort Sea high and Icelandic low pressure systems. Our results point to a variable and changing role of ocean currents in the coupled sea ice-ocean momentum balance.

  12. Tracheobronchial Branching Anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Min Ji; Kim, Young Tong; Jou, Sung Shick [Soonchunhyang University, Cheonan Hospital, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of); Park, A Young [Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Asan (Korea, Republic of)


    There are various congenital anomalies with respect to the number, length, diameter, and location of tracheobronchial branching patterns. The tracheobronchial anomalies are classified into two groups. The first one, anomalies of division, includes tracheal bronchus, cardiac bronchus, tracheal diverticulum, pulmonary isomerism, and minor variations. The second one, dysmorphic lung, includes lung agenesis-hypoplasia complex and lobar agenesis-aplasia complex

  13. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden


    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  14. Urban atmospheres. (United States)

    Gandy, Matthew


    What is an urban atmosphere? How can we differentiate an 'atmosphere' from other facets of urban consciousness and experience? This essay explores some of the wider cultural, political, and philosophical connotations of atmospheres as a focal point for critical reflections on space and subjectivity. The idea of an 'affective atmosphere' as a distinctive kind of mood or shared corporeal phenomenon is considered in relation to recent developments in phenomenology, extended conceptions of agency, and new understandings of materialism. The essay draws in particular on the changing characteristics of air and light to reflect on different forms of sensory experience and their wider cultural and political connotations. The argument highlights some of the tensions and anomalies that permeate contemporary understandings of urban atmospheres.

  15. Temperature extremes in Europe: overview of their driving atmospheric patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Andrade


    Full Text Available As temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation, is particularly pertinent and is discussed here for Europe and in the period 1961–2010 (50 yr. For this aim, a canonical correlation analysis, coupled with a principal component analysis (BPCCA, is applied between the monthly mean sea level pressure fields, defined within a large Euro-Atlantic sector, and the monthly occurrences of two temperature extreme indices (TN10p – cold nights and TX90p – warm days in Europe. Each co-variability mode represents a large-scale forcing on the occurrence of temperature extremes. North Atlantic Oscillation-like patterns and strong anomalies in the atmospheric flow westwards of the British Isles are leading couplings between large-scale atmospheric circulation and winter, spring and autumn occurrences of both cold nights and warm days in Europe. Although summer couplings depict lower coherence between warm and cold events, important atmospheric anomalies are key driving mechanisms. For a better characterization of the extremes, the main features of the statistical distributions of the absolute minima (TNN and maxima (TXX are also examined for each season. Furthermore, statistically significant downward (upward trends are detected in the cold night (warm day occurrences over the period 1961–2010 throughout Europe, particularly in summer, which is in clear agreement with the overall warming.

  16. Inconsistencies in interpreting the atmospheric neutrino anomaly

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We note a discrepancy between the value of R expected on the basis of the muon neutrino angular distribution and the value actually observed. the energy independence of R leads to a fine-tuning problem. This may be indicative of some unaccounted for new physics.

  17. Arctic circulation regimes. (United States)

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L


    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

  18. Changes in equatorial zonal circulations and precipitation in the context of the global warming and natural modes (United States)

    Kim, Byeong-Hee; Ha, Kyung-Ja


    The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the changes in Indian Walker Circulation and Atlantic Walker Circulation which are affected by the anomalous SST over the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.

  19. Roles of tropical SST anomalies in modulating the western north Pacific anomalous cyclone during strong La Niña decaying years (United States)

    Chen, Zesheng; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Du, Yan


    This study re-explores the roles of tropical SST anomalies in modulating the anomalous cyclone over the Indo-western Pacific during strong La Niña decaying years via a series of numerical experiments. The results suggest that central to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling, western north Pacific (WNP) warming, and Indian Ocean cooling all contribute to the Indo-western Pacific cyclonic wind anomalies. The WNP SST anomalies play a role via a Rossby wave-type response. As the positive SST anomalies in the WNP decay, the local forcing effect decays as well. The Indian Ocean remote forcing seems to play an important role during boreal summer via cold Kelvin wave induced cyclonic shear and boundary layer convergence. During strong La Niña decaying years, the negative SST anomalies in the equatorial central to eastern Pacific can maintain and persist into summer. Such cooling could induce anomalous Walker circulation with ascending branch over the Maritime Continent to Philippines and descending branch over central to eastern Pacific, which links the WNP climate to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies. The convective heating over the WNP induced remotely by central to eastern Pacific cooling in turn forces atmospheric Rossby wave to its west, which may amplify the anomalous cyclone over the Indo-western Pacific.

  20. Congenital optic nerve anomalies. (United States)

    Martín-Begué, N; Saint-Gerons, M


    To update the current knowledge about congenital optic disc anomalies. A comprehensive literature search was performed in the major biomedical databases. Patients with these anomalies usually have poor vision in infancy. Refractive errors are common, and serous retinal detachment may develop in some of these anomalies. It is critically important to clinically differentiate between these congenital optic disc anomalies, as central nervous system malformations are common in some, whereas others may be associated with systemic anomalies. Congenital optic disc anomalies are a heterogeneous group of pathologies with characteristic fundus appearance and systemic associations. We should always try to make a correct diagnosis, in order to ask for specific tests, as well as to provide an adequate follow-up. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatial-temporal variations of dominant drought/flood modes and the associated atmospheric circulation and ocean events in rainy season over the east of China (United States)

    Huang, Shaoni; Huang, Fei


    By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Niño, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a `Southern Flood and Northern Drought' pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a `Northern Flood and Southern Drought' pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over

  2. Alaska Terrain Corrected Free Air Anomalies (96) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 2' x 4' gravity anomaly grid for Alaska is NOT the input data set used in development of the GEOID96 model. This gravity grid models the 1.1 million terrestrial...

  3. The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFC's to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes (United States)

    Douglas, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Gupta, M. L.; Newman, P. A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Fleming, E. L.


    Model-derived estimates of the annually integrated destruction and lifetime for various ozone depleting substances (ODSs) depend on the simulated stratospheric transport and mixing in the global model used to produce the estimate. Observations in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere show that the mean age of an air parcel (i.e., the time since its stratospheric entry) is related to the fractional release for the ODs (i.e., the amount of the ODS that has been destroyed relative to the amount at the time of stratospheric entry). We use back trajectory calculations to produce an age spectrum, and explain the relationship between the mean age and the fractional release by showing that older elements in the age spectrum have experienced higher altitudes and greater ODs destruction than younger elements. In our study, models with faster circulations produce distributions for the age-of-air that are 'young' compared to a distribution derived from observations. These models also fail to reproduce the observed relationship between the mean age of air and the fractional release. Models with slower circulations produce both realistic distributions for mean age and a realistic relationship between mean age and fractional release. These models also produce a CFCl3 lifetime of approximately 56 years, longer than the 45 year lifetime used to project future mixing ratios. We find that the use of flux boundary conditions in assessment models would have several advantages, including consistency between ODS evolution and simulated loss even if the simulated residual circulation changes due to climate change.

  4. Atmospheric feedbacks in North Africa from an irrigated, afforested Sahara (United States)

    Kemena, Tronje Peer; Matthes, Katja; Martin, Thomas; Wahl, Sebastian; Oschlies, Andreas


    Afforestation of the Sahara has been proposed as a climate engineering method to sequester a substantial amount of carbon dioxide, potentially effective to mitigate climate change. Earlier studies predicted changes in the atmospheric circulation system. These atmospheric feedbacks raise questions about the self-sustainability of such an intervention, but have not been investigated in detail. Here, we investigate changes in precipitation and circulation in response to Saharan large-scale afforestation and irrigation with NCAR's CESM-WACCM Earth system model. Our model results show a Saharan temperature reduction by 6 K and weak precipitation enhancement by 267 mm/year over the Sahara. Only 26% of the evapotranspirated water re-precipitates over the Saharan Desert, considerably large amounts are advected southward to the Sahel zone and enhance the West African monsoon (WAM). Different processes cause circulation and precipitation changes over North Africa. The increase in atmospheric moisture leads to radiative cooling above the Sahara and increased high-level cloud coverage as well as atmospheric warming above the Sahel zone. Both lead to a circulation anomaly with descending air over the Sahara and ascending air over the Sahel zone. Together with changes in the meridional temperature gradient, this results in a southward shift of the inner-tropical front. The strengthening of the Tropical easterly jet and the northward displacement of the African easterly jet is associated with a northward displacement and strengthening of the WAM precipitation. Our results suggest complex atmospheric circulation feedbacks, which reduce the precipitation potential over an afforested Sahara and enhance WAM precipitation.

  5. PR/VI Terrain Corrected Free Air Anomalies (96) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 2' gravity anomaly grid for the Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands is NOT the input data set used in development of the GEOID96 model. This gravity grid models...

  6. Hawaiian Islands Terrain Corrected Free Air Anomalies (96) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 2' gravity anomaly grid for the Principal Hawaiian Islands is NOT the input data set used in development of the GEOID96 model. This gravity grid models the...

  7. Implementation of non-local boundary layer schemes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and its impact on simulated mesoscale circulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gómez, I.; Ronda, R.J.; Caselles, V.; Estrela, M.J.


    This paper proposes the implementation of different non-local Planetary Boundary Layer schemes within the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model. The two selected PBL parameterizations are the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBL and its updated version, known as the Yonsei University (YSU)

  8. Dynamics of Massive Atmospheres (United States)

    Chemke, Rei; Kaspi, Yohai


    The many recently discovered terrestrial exoplanets are expected to hold a wide range of atmospheric masses. Here the dynamic-thermodynamic effects of atmospheric mass on atmospheric circulation are studied using an idealized global circulation model by systematically varying the atmospheric surface pressure. On an Earth analog planet, an increase in atmospheric mass weakens the Hadley circulation and decreases its latitudinal extent. These changes are found to be related to the reduction of the convective fluxes and net radiative cooling (due to the higher atmospheric heat capacity), which, respectively, cool the upper troposphere at mid-low latitudes and warm the troposphere at high latitudes. These together decrease the meridional temperature gradient, tropopause height and static stability. The reduction of these parameters, which play a key role in affecting the flow properties of the tropical circulation, weakens and contracts the Hadley circulation. The reduction of the meridional temperature gradient also decreases the extraction of mean potential energy to the eddy fields and the mean kinetic energy, which weakens the extratropical circulation. The decrease of the eddy kinetic energy decreases the Rhines wavelength, which is found to follow the meridional jet scale. The contraction of the jet scale in the extratropics results in multiple jets and meridional circulation cells as the atmospheric mass increases.

  9. Variations in the temperature and circulation of the atmosphere during the 11-year cycle of solar activity derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (United States)

    Gruzdev, A. N.


    Using the data of the ERA-Interim reanalysis, we have obtained estimates of changes in temperature, the geopotential and its large-scale zonal harmonics, wind velocity, and potential vorticity in the troposphere and stratosphere of the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the 11-year solar cycle. The estimates have been obtained using the method of multiple linear regression. Specific features of response of the indicated atmospheric parameters to the solar cycle have been revealed in particular regions of the atmosphere for a whole year and depending on the season. The results of the analysis indicate the existence of a reliable statistical relationship of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the 11-year solar cycle.

  10. Solar Tides in the Upper Equatorial Thermosphere: A Comparison between AE-E (Atmosphere Explorer-E Satellite) Data and the NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation Model. (United States)


    serves to increase the resolution of the binning scheme without seriously lowering the number of data points collected in any particular bin. This...binning scheme has 7 rows of bins corresponding to different latitudes and 24 columns of bins corresponding to different local solar times making a total...National Center for Atmospheric Research for her excellent work in running the NCAR TGCM. 13 * ... . REFERENCES Broglio, L., C. Buongiorno, U. Ponzi

  11. On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Kobashi


    Full Text Available The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH] over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH; polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]. The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3–4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31–35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO. Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

  12. Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, Giles H.F.; McCarroll, Danny; Loader, Neil J.; Gagen, Mary H.; Demmler, Joanne C. [Swansea University, Department of Geography, Swansea (United Kingdom); Kirchhefer, Andreas J. [University of Tromsoe, Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Tromsoe (Norway); Dendrooekologen, Tromsoe (Norway)


    Cloud cover currently represents the single greatest source of uncertainty in General Circulation Models. Stable carbon isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 13}C) from tree-rings, in areas of low moisture stress, are likely to be primarily controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and therefore should provide a proxy record for cloud cover or sunshine; indeed this association has previously been demonstrated experimentally for Scots pine in Fennoscandia, with sunlight explaining ca 90% of the variance in photosynthesis and temperature only ca 4%. We present a statistically verifiable 1011-year reconstruction of cloud cover from a well replicated, annually-resolved {delta}{sup 13}C record from Forfjord in coastal northwestern Norway. This reconstruction exhibits considerable variability in cloud cover over the past millennium, including extended sunny periods during the cool seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and warm cloudy periods during the eleventh, early fifteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that while a generally positive relationship persists between sunshine and temperature at high-frequency, at lower (multi-decadal) frequencies the relationship is more often a negative one, with cool periods being sunny (most notably the Little Ice Age period from 1600 to 1750 CE) and warm periods more cloudy (e.g. the mediaeval and the twentieth century). We conclude that these long-term changes may be caused by changes in the dominant circulation mode, likely to be associated with the Arctic Oscillation. There is also strong circumstantial evidence that prolonged periods of high summer cloud cover, with low PAR and probably high precipitation, may be in part responsible for major European famines caused by crop failures. (orig.)

  13. The influence of the tropical circulation on Indian summer monsoon during ENSO (United States)

    Jang, Y.; Straus, D. M.


    The influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Indian Summer Monsoon circulation is studied; focus is on the mechanism involving the change in the tropical circulation, particularly in the western Pacific. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used for mechanistic studies on how the tropical circulation changes (especially movement of regions of ascent and descent) during ENSO influence the Indian Summer Monsoon. For this purpose, additional idealized heating is inserted into the full CAM in the context of summer simulations with climatological SST in order to induce rising motion anomalies that represent the modification of the Walker circulation under different summer time ENSO SST conditions. In this manner, the inadequacies of the parameterization of deep convection in responding to ENSO SST anomalies are avoided. The sensitivity of response of the idealized heating is also tested with different magnitudes and locations of the heating. The coefficients of 2K/day and 1K/day are used for the different magnitudes of the heating. The different locations of heating are inserted from the tropical Indian Ocean to the tropical central Pacific. The inserted heating in each tropical region simulated Gill type responses, although the strength and propagation of the responses are different with the different locations of the heating. Despite of the different locations of the heating, strong remote responses over the Indian region are consistently simulated in CAM while the heating moves from the Indian Ocean to the central Pacific. This is a sort of geophysical fluid dynamics approach, but in the context of a realistic model. My metrics for judging changes in Indian Monsoon circulation will emphasize the Monsoon 3-d circulation.

  14. Anomalies on orbifolds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arkani-Hamed, Nima; Cohen, Andrew G.; Georgi, Howard


    We discuss the form of the chiral anomaly on an S1/Z2 orbifold with chiral boundary conditions. We find that the 4-divergence of the higher-dimensional current evaluated at a given point in the extra dimension is proportional to the probability of finding the chiral zero mode there. Nevertheless the anomaly, appropriately defined as the five dimensional divergence of the current, lives entirely on the orbifold fixed planes and is independent of the shape of the zero mode. Therefore long distance four dimensional anomaly cancellation ensures the consistency of the higher dimensional orbifold theory.

  15. Theoretically Optimal Distributed Anomaly Detection (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A novel general framework for distributed anomaly detection with theoretical performance guarantees is proposed. Our algorithmic approach combines existing anomaly...

  16. Baroclinic stabilization effect of the Atlantic-Arctic water exchange simulated by the eddy-permitting ocean model and global atmosphere-ocean model (United States)

    Moshonkin, Sergey; Bagno, Alexey; Gritsun, Andrey; Gusev, Anatoly


    Numerical experiments were performed with the global atmosphere-ocean model INMCM5 (for version of the international project CMIP6, resolution for atmosphere is 2°x1.5°, 21 level) and with the three-dimensional, free surface, sigma coordinate eddy-permitting ocean circulation model for Atlantic (from 30°S) - Arctic and Bering sea domain (0.25 degrees resolution, Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model or INMOM). Spatial resolution of the INMCM5 oceanic component is 0.5°x0.25°. Both models have 40 s-levels in ocean. Previously, the simulations were carried out for INMCM5 to generate climatic system stable state. Then model was run for 180 years. In the experiment with INMOM, CORE-II data for 1948-2009 were used. As the goal for comparing results of two these numerical models, we selected evolution of the density and velocity anomalies in the 0-300m active ocean layer near Fram Strait in the Greenland Sea, where oceanic cyclonic circulation influences Atlantic-Arctic water exchange. Anomalies were count without climatic seasonal cycle for time scales smaller than 30 years. We use Singular Value Decomposition analysis (SVD) for density-velocity anomalies with time lag from minus one to six months. Both models perform identical stable physical result. They reveal that changes of heat and salt transports by West Spitsbergen and East Greenland currents, caused by atmospheric forcing, produce the baroclinic modes of velocity anomalies in 0-300m layer, thereby stabilizing ocean response on the atmospheric forcing, which stimulates keeping water exchange between the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean at the certain climatological level. The first SVD-mode of density-velocity anomalies is responsible for the cyclonic circulation variability. The second and third SVD-modes stabilize existing ocean circulation by the anticyclonic vorticity generation. The second and third SVD-modes give 35% of the input to the total dispersion of density anomalies and 16-18% of the

  17. Anomaly Detection in Sequences (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We present a set of novel algorithms which we call sequenceMiner, that detect and characterize anomalies in large sets of high-dimensional symbol sequences that...

  18. Scattering anomaly in optics

    CERN Document Server

    Silveirinha, Mario G


    In time-reversal invariant electronic systems the scattering matrix is anti-symmetric. This property enables an effect, designated here as "scattering anomaly", such that the electron transport does not suffer from back reflections, independent of the specific geometry of the propagation path or the presence of time-reversal invariant defects. In contrast, for a generic time-reversal invariant photonic system the scattering matrix is symmetric and there is no similar anomaly. Here, it is theoretically proven that despite these fundamental differences there is a wide class of photonic platforms - in some cases formed only by time-reversal invariant media - in which the scattering anomaly can occur. It is shown that an optical system invariant under the action of the composition of the time-reversal, parity and duality operators is characterized by an anti-symmetric scattering matrix. Specific examples of photonic platforms wherein the scattering anomaly occurs are given, and it is demonstrated with full wave n...

  19. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Zachary M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Murphy, Lisa N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Li, Fiyu [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Bonfils, Celine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.


    We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  20. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Riley


    Full Text Available We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1 to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  1. Downscaling low flow and drought for Southwest Germany by using atmospheric circulation types based on NCEP- and RCM-SLP data (United States)

    Caspary, H. J.; Bárdossy, A.; Katzenberger, B.


    In June and August 2003 Europe suffered a drought with extreme low flows in many rivers and an extreme heat wave which caused about 35 000 fatalities and economic losses totalling 13 billion US-. In France and Germany several nuclear power plants had to reduce their production due to a lack of cooling water and temperatures exceeding the legal limit of 28 °C. It will be shown that droughts and extreme low flows for Southwest Germany in summer are mostly linked to a few special circulation types (CP) like "Ridge of High Pressure over Central Europe (BM)". The methodology of an objective CP classification based on NCEP-SLP data and time series of daily runoff data for several rivers of Southwest Germany will be described. This classification allows the detection of "critical" CPs which are causing droughts and low flows in the study area. The time series of the frequencies and maximum persistence of the "critical" CPs will be analyzed for the observation period (1958-2007) of the NCEP data and two transient RCM scenario runs. The KNMI RACMO2 model and the MPI REMO model, both driven by the A1b emission scenario of ECHAM5. The results of the statistical analysis of the "critical" CPs will be demonstrated for summer (JJA) and the vegetation period (April-Sept.). A comparison of the results obtained for the observation period (1961-1990) and the scenario runs of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 will indicate how the risk of extreme low flows and droughts in summer will change for Southwest Germany in the future for the different RCM runs.

  2. Peripheral circulation. (United States)

    Laughlin, M Harold; Davis, Michael J; Secher, Niels H; van Lieshout, Johannes J; Arce-Esquivel, Arturo A; Simmons, Grant H; Bender, Shawn B; Padilla, Jaume; Bache, Robert J; Merkus, Daphne; Duncker, Dirk J


    Blood flow (BF) increases with increasing exercise intensity in skeletal, respiratory, and cardiac muscle. In humans during maximal exercise intensities, 85% to 90% of total cardiac output is distributed to skeletal and cardiac muscle. During exercise BF increases modestly and heterogeneously to brain and decreases in gastrointestinal, reproductive, and renal tissues and shows little to no change in skin. If the duration of exercise is sufficient to increase body/core temperature, skin BF is also increased in humans. Because blood pressure changes little during exercise, changes in distribution of BF with incremental exercise result from changes in vascular conductance. These changes in distribution of BF throughout the body contribute to decreases in mixed venous oxygen content, serve to supply adequate oxygen to the active skeletal muscles, and support metabolism of other tissues while maintaining homeostasis. This review discusses the response of the peripheral circulation of humans to acute and chronic dynamic exercise and mechanisms responsible for these responses. This is accomplished in the context of leading the reader on a tour through the peripheral circulation during dynamic exercise. During this tour, we consider what is known about how each vascular bed controls BF during exercise and how these control mechanisms are modified by chronic physical activity/exercise training. The tour ends by comparing responses of the systemic circulation to those of the pulmonary circulation relative to the effects of exercise on the regional distribution of BF and mechanisms responsible for control of resistance/conductance in the systemic and pulmonary circulations. © 2012 American Physiological Society

  3. Historical Climate Change in Sardinia (Italy): The dramatic runoff decrease in the last three decades and the effect of atmospheric circulation. (United States)

    Montaldo, N.; Sarigu, A.


    for the east coast stations due to the impact of the orography which attenuate the large scale atmospheric dynamics, when storms cross Sardinian island from west to east. Hence, local effects - the mountain - can strongly impact and alter large scale atmosphere phenomena.

  4. Low frequency variability of the Indian Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height anomalies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sarma, Y.V.B.

    The sea surface height (SSH) anomalies derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter have been utilized to study the variability of surface circulation in the Indian Ocean during 1993-1999. The Western Bay, southeastern Arabian Sea, regions off Somalia...

  5. Evolution of wet-day and dry-day frequency in the western Amazon basin: Relationship with atmospheric circulation and impacts on vegetation (United States)

    Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Segura, Hans; Ronchail, Josyane; Drapeau, Guillaume; Gutierrez-Cori, Omar


    This paper documents the spatiotemporal evolution of wet-day and dry-day frequency (WDF and DDF) in the western Amazon, its relationships with oceanic and atmospheric variability and possible impact on vegetation. WDF and DDF changed significantly during the 1980-2009 period (p DDF increased significantly over the central and southern part of this region (Ucayali basin) after 1986. Average annual DDF was 16.2 days before 1986 and 23.8 days afterward (+47% after 1986). Interannual variability in WDF appears to be modulated by changes in Pacific SST and the Walker cell during the November-March season. This mechanism enhances convective activity over the northern part of the western Amazon. The increase in DDF is related to warming of the North Tropical Atlantic SST, which produces changes in the Hadley cell and subsidence over the central and the southern western Amazon. More intense seasonal hydrological extremes in the western Amazon therefore appear to be related to changes in WDF and DDF that occurred in 1995 and 1986, respectively. During the 2001-2009 period, an index of vegetation condition (NDVI) appears negatively correlated with DDF (r = -0.95; p < 0.0001). This suggests that vegetation in the western Amazon is mainly water limited, rather than light limited and indicates that the vegetation is highly sensitive to concentration of rainfall.

  6. The Impact of Devegetated Dune Fields on North American Climate During the Late Medieval Climate Anomaly (United States)

    Cook, B. I.; Seager, R.; Miller, R. L.


    During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, North America experienced severe droughts and widespread mobilization of dune fields that persisted for decades. We use an atmosphere general circulation model, forced by a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction and changes in the land surface consistent with estimates of dune mobilization (conceptualized as partial devegetation), to investigate whether the devegetation could have exacerbated the medieval droughts. Presence of devegetated dunes in the model significantly increases surface temperatures, but has little impact on precipitation or drought severity, as defined by either the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Results are similar to recent studies of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, suggesting bare soil associated with the dunes, in and of itself, is not sufficient to amplify droughts over North America.

  7. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Equatorial Zonally-averaged 30-hPa Zonal Wind Anomalies (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 30-hPa zonal wind anomalies averaged over the Equator. The anomalies are departures from the...

  8. A study into the effects of gravity wave activity on the diurnal tide and airglow emissions in the equatorial mesosphere and lower thermosphere using the Coupled Middle Atmosphere and Thermosphere (CMAT) general circulation model (United States)

    England, S. L.; Dobbin, A.; Harris, M. J.; Arnold, N. F.; Aylward, A. D.


    Momentum deposition by gravity wave breaking is known to affect the amplitude and phase of the diurnal tide. Modelling studies of this interaction have produced some conflicting results and as yet, the exact nature of this interaction is not fully understood. In this study, the effects of parameterised gravity wave momentum deposition on the diurnal tide and subsequently on green line airglow from atomic oxygen during equinox are investigated using the Coupled Middle Atmosphere and Thermosphere (CMAT) general circulation model. The effects of gravity wave drag calculated by two different parameterisations, Meyer [1999. Gravity wave interactions with the diurnal propagating tide. Journal of Geophysical Research 104, 4223 4239] and Medvedev and Klaassen [2000. Parameterisation of gravity wave momentum deposition based on non-linear wave interactions: basic formulation and sensitivity tests. Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics 62, 1015 1033], are compared in the low latitude MLT region between 70 and 120 km, where the amplitude of the diurnal tide and green line volume emission rates maximise. Results indicate that momentum sources from both gravity wave parameterisations act to reduce the mid-latitude zonal jets and advance the phase of the diurnal tide, such that the peak amplitude at a given height occurs at an earlier time of day. Gravity wave momentum deposition as parameterised by Meyer [1999. Gravity wave interactions with the diurnal propagating tide. Journal of Geophysical Research 104, 4223 4239] results in a reduction of the amplitude of the diurnal tide in the MLT region, whereas the tidal amplitude is increased when the Medvedev and Klaassen [2000. Parameterisation of gravity wave momentum deposition based on non-linear wave interactions: basic formulation and sensitivity tests. Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics 62, 1015 1033] parameterisation is used. Both parameterisations affect the local time variability of the simulated

  9. Satellite observations of surface temperature patterns induced by synoptic circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean (United States)

    Lensky, Itamar; Dayan, Uri


    Land Surface Temperature (LST) controls most physical and biological processes on Earth. Knowledge of the LST at high spatial resolution enables representation of different climate regimes. The main factors controlling LST are the seasonal and diurnal cycles, land cover, cloud cover, and atmospheric processes at several scales. Lensky and Dayan analyzed atmospheric processes at the topoclimatic scale, and the mesoscale (Lensky and Dayan 2011, 2012). Here we will demonstrate an analysis of the spatial distribution of LST anomaly as affected by typical synoptic circulation patterns over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM). LST anomaly is defined as the difference between daily and climatological LST. Using LST anomaly reduces the effects of land cover and the seasonal and diurnal cycles, enabling a better detection of surface temperature patterns induced by synoptic circulation. In this study we used all available 2000-2012 NASA daily MODIS LST data over the EM, together with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data of SLP, surface winds and Omega (at 700hPa). We will present two frequent synoptic circulation patterns as classified by Levy and Dayan (2008) to demonstrate the LST patterns induced by synoptic circulation over the EM. The first is the "Red Sea Trough" (RST) with eastern axis, which is an extension of a low surface pressure from a tropical depression toward the Red Sea, penetrating up north as far as Turkey. It migrates from south to north and mostly frequent during the autumn. The axis of the RST separates distinctively between regions of positive (warm) anomalies over Turkey and regions of negative anomalies (cold) over Egypt induced by the wind flow from both sides of the axis. The second synoptic circulation pattern is "shallow Cyprus low to the north", which is a disturbance of the polar front extending southward. This synoptic system some times migrates over the Mediterranean eastward toward the EM during the winter season. The strong northwesterly flow featuring the

  10. Congenital laryngeal anomalies,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Rutter


    Full Text Available Introduction: It is essential for clinicians to understand issues relevant to the airway management of infants and to be cognizant of the fact that infants with congenital laryngeal anomalies are at particular risk for an unstable airway. Objectives: To familiarize clinicians with issues relevant to the airway management of infants and to present a succinct description of the diagnosis and management of an array of congenital laryngeal anomalies. Methods: Revision article, in which the main aspects concerning airway management of infants will be analyzed. Conclusions: It is critical for clinicians to understand issues relevant to the airway management of infants.

  11. EOP MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution for the...

  12. A glacial warm water anomaly in the subantarctic Atlantic Ocean, near the Agulhas Retroflection (United States)

    Cortese, Giuseppe; Abelmann, Andrea; Gersonde, Rainer


    ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermohaline (THC) circulation system, and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium, and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However, it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core, interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture, this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089, as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current, the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the δ13C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms, linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest, in analogy to modern oceanographic observations, this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline, induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation, which are in turn connected to the flow geometry, and intensity, of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the

  13. [Ebstein anomaly and pregnancy]. (United States)

    Riesgo, Carmen Armida Iñigo; Gómez, Luis Guillermo Torres; Higareda, Salvador Hernández; Vargas, Juan Rafael Gómez


    The Ebstein's anomaly is a congenital malformation of the tricuspid valve and of the right ventricle that usually is associated with interauricular communication, foramen oval, and arrhythmias of Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome type. To analyze the association between Ebstein's anomaly and pregnancy. A prospective study was made in five pregnant women's with Ebstein's anomaly without surgery. We analyzed the clinical history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, x-ray of thorax, Doppler color heart ultrasound, and fetal valoration by means of pelvic ecosonogram and cardiotocographic registry, and routinely prenatal paraclinic tests. We observed severe expansion of the ventricle and 3rd degree index of atrialization in two patients. In two pregnancies there were interatrial communication (patients with cyanosis) and in three was detected severe tricuspid insufficiency. The average of gestacional age was of 36.4 +/- 1.8 weeks. Two of the five pregnancies has preterm birth. Only one childbirth was short weight to gestational age. The rest stayed within percentile 10. There were no obits or neonatal deaths, either congenital abnormality by Doppler heart ultrasound. The pregnancy is well tolerated in patients with Ebstein's anomaly; nevertheless, participation of multidisciplinary team is recommended to establish the treatment.

  14. Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.A. de Groot (Wilma)


    markdownabstractOne of the most important challenges in the field of asset pricing is to understand anomalies: empirical patterns in asset returns that cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models. Currently, there is no consensus in the academic literature on the underlying causes of

  15. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    . Empirically, we find that option-implied ex-ante skewness is strongly related to ex-post residual coskewness and alphas. Beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are largely driven by a single principal component, which is in turn largely explained by skewness. Controlling for skewness renders the alphas...

  16. Enhancement of the southward return flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by data assimilation and its influence in an assimilative ocean simulation forced by CORE-II atmospheric forcing (United States)

    Fujii, Yosuke; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Toyoda, Takahiro; Nakano, Hideyuki


    This paper examines the difference in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mean state between free and assimilative simulations of a common ocean model using a common interannual atmospheric forcing. In the assimilative simulation, the reproduction of cold cores in the Nordic Seas, which is absent in the free simulation, enhances the overflow to the North Atlantic and improves AMOC with enhanced transport of the deeper part of the southward return flow. This improvement also induces an enhanced supply of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and causes better representation of the Atlantic deep layer despite the fact that correction by the data assimilation is applied only to temperature and salinity above a depth of 1750 m. It also affects Circumpolar Deep Water in the Southern Ocean. Although the earliest influence of the improvement propagated by coastal waves reaches the Southern Ocean in 10-15 years, substantial influence associated with the arrival of the renewed NADW propagates across the Atlantic Basin in several decades. Although the result demonstrates that data assimilation is able to improve the deep ocean state even if there is no data there, it also indicates that long-term integration is required to reproduce variability in the deep ocean originating from variations in the upper ocean. This study thus provides insights on the reliability of AMOC and the ocean state in the Atlantic deep layer reproduced by data assimilation systems.

  17. The Pioneer Anomaly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor T. Toth


    Full Text Available Radio-metric Doppler tracking data received from the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft from heliocentric distances of 20-70 AU has consistently indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, blue-shifted frequency drift uniformly changing with a rate of ~6 × 10–9 Hz/s. Ultimately, the drift was interpreted as a constant sunward deceleration of each particular spacecraft at the level of aP = (8.74 ± 1.33 × 10–10 m/s2. This apparent violation of the Newton's gravitational inverse square law has become known as the Pioneer anomaly; the nature of this anomaly remains unexplained. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the physical properties of the anomaly and the conditions that led to its detection and characterization. We review various mechanisms proposed to explain the anomaly and discuss the current state of efforts to determine its nature. A comprehensive new investigation of the anomalous behavior of the two Pioneers has begun recently. The new efforts rely on the much-extended set of radio-metric Doppler data for both spacecraft in conjunction with the newly available complete record of their telemetry files and a large archive of original project documentation. As the new study is yet to report its findings, this review provides the necessary background for the new results to appear in the near future. In particular, we provide a significant amount of information on the design, operations and behavior of the two Pioneers during their entire missions, including descriptions of various data formats and techniques used for their navigation and radio-science data analysis. As most of this information was recovered relatively recently, it was not used in the previous studies of the Pioneer anomaly, but it is critical for the new investigation.

  18. Astrometric solar system anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieto, Michael Martin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, John D [PROPULSION LABORATORY


    There are at least four unexplained anomalies connected with astrometric data. perhaps the most disturbing is the fact that when a spacecraft on a flyby trajectory approaches the Earth within 2000 km or less, it often experiences a change in total orbital energy per unit mass. next, a secular change in the astronomical unit AU is definitely a concern. It is increasing by about 15 cm yr{sup -1}. The other two anomalies are perhaps less disturbing because of known sources of nongravitational acceleration. The first is an apparent slowing of the two Pioneer spacecraft as they exit the solar system in opposite directions. Some astronomers and physicists are convinced this effect is of concern, but many others are convinced it is produced by a nearly identical thermal emission from both spacecraft, in a direction away from the Sun, thereby producing acceleration toward the Sun. The fourth anomaly is a measured increase in the eccentricity of the Moon's orbit. Here again, an increase is expected from tidal friction in both the Earth and Moon. However, there is a reported unexplained increase that is significant at the three-sigma level. It is produent to suspect that all four anomalies have mundane explanations, or that one or more anomalies are a result of systematic error. Yet they might eventually be explained by new physics. For example, a slightly modified theory of gravitation is not ruled out, perhaps analogous to Einstein's 1916 explanation for the excess precession of Mercury's perihelion.

  19. Assessing the influence of ocean-atmosphere forcing on precipitation and drought characteristics at global and regional scales (United States)

    Ferguson, Ian Michael

    Previous studies have demonstrated that ocean-atmosphere forcing by anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) significantly influences large-scale hydroclimatic variability. However, the influence of SST anomalies on the stochastic characteristics of regional precipitation and drought is not well understood. This dissertation investigates the influence of SST forcing on hydroclimatic variability at global and regional scales. An ensemble of 20th century atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations is used to evaluate the SST-forced signal and chaotic noise components of simulated seasonal precipitation. Temporal variability and trends in signal and potential predictability (signal-to-noise ratio) are shown to be significant over much of the globe, while variability in noise is not significant over most regions. Results suggest that ocean-atmosphere forcing of seasonal precipitation is not stationary; results are discussed in the contexts of seasonal climate prediction and global climate change. The influence of SST anomalies on stochastic characteristics of precipitation and drought is subsequently evaluated using two ensembles of AGCM simulations forced with observed (interannually varying) SST and their climatological annual cycle, respectively. SST anomalies are shown to significantly increase interannual variability of precipitation and persistence of precipitation anomalies throughout the tropics and some midlatitude regions. With respect to drought, SST anomalies are shown to increase the duration and magnitude of drought events over much of the tropics; outside of the tropics SST anomalies contribute a small increase in likelihood of persistent drought events. Coupled (atmosphere-ocean-land) general circulation models (CGCMs) pose a number of applications to drought research. The final portion of this dissertation evaluates precipitation characteristics and ocean-atmosphere coupling in nine state-of-the-art CGCMs. CGCMs are shown to generally

  20. Hyperspectral anomaly detection using enhanced global factors (United States)

    Paciencia, Todd J.; Bauer, Kenneth W.


    Dimension reduction techniques have become one popular unsupervised approach used towards detecting anomalies in hyperspectral imagery. Although demonstrating promising results in the literature on specific images, these methods can become difficult to directly interpret and often require tuning of their parameters to achieve high performance on a specific set of images. This lack of generality is also compounded by the need to remove noise and atmospheric absorption spectral bands from the image prior to detection. Without a process for this band selection and to make the methods adaptable to different image compositions, performance becomes difficult to maintain across a wider variety of images. Here, we present a framework that uses factor analysis to provide a robust band selection and more meaningful dimension reduction with which to detect anomalies in the imagery. Measurable characteristics of the image are used to create an automated decision process that allows the algorithm to adjust to a particular image, while maintaining high detection performance. The framework and its algorithms are detailed, and results are shown for forest, desert, sea, rural, urban, anomaly-sparse, and anomaly-dense imagery types from different sensors. Additionally, the method is compared to current state-of-the-art methods and is shown to be computationally efficient.

  1. Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability: a model study (United States)

    Msadek, Rym; Frankignoul, Claude; Li, Laurent Z. X.


    The atmospheric circulation response to decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the IPSL climate model is investigated using the associated sea surface temperature signature. A SST anomaly is prescribed in sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric component of the IPSL model coupled to a slab ocean. The prescribed SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is the surface signature of the MOC influence on the atmosphere detected in the coupled simulation. It follows a maximum of the MOC by a few years and resembles the model Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. It is mainly characterized by a warming of the North Atlantic south of Iceland, and a cooling of the Nordic Seas. There are substantial seasonal variations in the geopotential height response to the prescribed SST anomaly, with an East Atlantic Pattern-like response in summer and a North Atlantic oscillation-like signal in winter. In summer, the response of the atmosphere is global in scale, resembling the climatic impact detected in the coupled simulation, albeit with a weaker amplitude. The zonally asymmetric or eddy part of the response is characterized by a trough over warm SST associated with changes in the stationary waves. A diagnostic analysis with daily data emphasizes the role of transient-eddy forcing in shaping and maintaining the equilibrium response. We show that in response to an intensified MOC, the North Atlantic storm tracks are enhanced and shifted northward during summer, consistent with a strengthening of the westerlies. However the anomalous response is weak, which suggests a statistically significant but rather modest influence of the extratropical SST on the atmosphere. The winter response to the MOC-induced North Atlantic warming is an intensification of the subtropical jet and a southward shift of the Atlantic storm track activity, resulting in an equatorward shift of the polar jet. Although the SST anomaly is only prescribed in the Atlantic ocean

  2. Anomaly-safe discrete groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu-Chun Chen


    Full Text Available We show that there is a class of finite groups, the so-called perfect groups, which cannot exhibit anomalies. This implies that all non-Abelian finite simple groups are anomaly-free. On the other hand, non-perfect groups generically suffer from anomalies. We present two different ways that allow one to understand these statements.

  3. Circulation economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingebrigtsen, Stig; Jakobsen, Ove


    Purpose - This paper is an attempt to advance the critical discussion regarding environmental and societal responsibility in economics and business. Design/methodology/approach - The paper presents and discusses as a holistic, organic perspective enabling innovative solutions to challenges...... concerning the responsible and efficient use of natural resources and the constructive interplay with culture. To reach the goal of sustainable development, the paper argues that it is necessary to make changes in several dimensions in mainstream economics. This change of perspective is called a turn towards...... presupposes a perspective integrating economic, natural and cultural values. Third, to organize the interplay between all stakeholders we introduce an arena for communicative cooperation. Originality/value - The paper concludes that circulation economics presupposes a change in paradigm, from a mechanistic...

  4. Results from atmospheric neutrinos

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    With the announcement of new evidence for muon neutrino disappearance observed by the super-Kamiokande experiment, the more than a decade old atmospheric neutrino anomaly moved from a possible indication for neutrino oscillations to an apparently inescapable fact. The evidence is reviewed, and new indications ...

  5. Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C Valverde


    various emission scenarios. Five global models from IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC and GISS are used, for 1961-1990 (present climate from the 20C3M model run, and for 2011-2100 for the SRES A2 high emission scenario. For the future, (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods, in most of the models (except the MIROC, the thermal continental low (Chaco low is shifted to the southwest while the Bolivian High is northwest shifted during in the summer and spring. All the models show, for present climate simulation a weak subtropical southeast Pacific anticyclone (SPA, which would induce a reduction atmospheric subsidence. When the anticyclone is shifted southward, it would be linked with a stronger and more southward Pacific ITCZ. For the future climate, only two models (HadCM3 and GISS showaweakerSPAascomparedtothepresent. Ontheotherhand,thesubtropicalsouthwestAtlantic anticyclone (SAA seems to be more intense during fall and winter in almost all models (with the exception of the GISS model. Among the different models, the HadCM3 simulates the summer and spring circulation close to NCEP Reanalysis. This model does exhibit a relatively well simulated SACZ, contributing with a decrease of precipitation over Amazon. Moreover, for the future scenarios the HadCM3 model shows changes in rainfall patterns, with positive anomalies over the West Coast of Peru and Equator and negative anomalies over Northeast of Brazil, and Eastern of Amazon, linked to weaker and southward shifted South Pacific High, enforcing the ITCZ over 5ºS, as a consequence of a decrease of the moisture convergence over Amazon.

  6. Circulation characteristics of persistent cold spells in central-eastern North America (United States)

    Li, Zhenhua; Manson, Alan H.; Li, Yanping; Meek, Chris


    The circulation patterns of persistent cold weather spells with durations longer than 10 days in central-eastern North America (United States and Canada; 32°-52°N, 95°-65°W) are investigated by using NCEP reanalysis data from 1948 to 2014. The criteria for the persistent cold spells are: (1) three-day averaged temperature anomalies for the regional average over the central-eastern United States and Canada must be below the 10th percentile, and (2) such extreme cold spells must last at least 10 days. The circulation patterns associated with these cold spells are examined to find the common signals of these events. The circulation anomaly patterns of these cold spells are categorized based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and other climate indices. The atmospheric circulation patterns that favor the cold spells are identified through composites of geopotential height maps for the cold spells. Negative AO phases favor persistent cold spells. Phases of sea surface temperature (SST) modes that are associated with warm SSTs in the eastern extratropical Pacific also favor persistent cold events in the study region. Stratospheric polar vortex breakdown alone is not a good predictor for the regional extreme cold spells in central-eastern North America. The meridional dispersions of quasi-stationary Rossby waves in the Pacific-North America sector in terms of cut-off zonal wavenumber modulated by background flow are analyzed to provide insight into the difference in evolution of the cold spells under different mean AO phases. The waveguide for AO > 1 is in a narrow latitudinal band centered on 40°N, whereas the waveguide for AO cold spells identified by this study can be a stepping-stone for improving winter subseasonal forecasting in North America.

  7. Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtekamer, P.L.


    It will be clear from the above discussions that skill forecasts are still in their infancy. Operational skill predictions do not exist. One is still struggling to prove that skill predictions, at any range, have any quality at all. It is not clear what the statistics of the analysis error

  8. Overly persistent circulation in climate models contributes to overestimated frequency and duration of heat waves and cold spells (United States)

    Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan


    The study examines links of summer heat waves and winter cold spells in Central Europe to atmospheric circulation and specifically its persistence in an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs). We analyse 13 RCMs driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis and compare them against observations over reference period 1971-2000. Using objective classification of circulation types and an efficiency coefficient with a block resampling test, we identify circulation types significantly conducive to heat waves and cold spells. We show that the RCMs have a stronger tendency to group together days with very high or low temperature and tend to simulate too many heat waves and cold spells, especially those lasting 5 days and more. Circulation types conducive to heat waves in summer are characterized by anticyclonic, southerly and easterly flow, with increasing importance of warm advection during heat waves. Winter cold spells are typically associated with easterly and anticyclonic flow, and the onset of cold spells tends to be linked to northerly and cyclonic flow with cold advection. The RCMs are generally able to reproduce the links between circulation and heat waves or cold spells, including the radiation-to-advection effect for heat waves and the opposite advection-to-radiation effect for cold spells. They capture relatively well also changes of mean temperature anomalies during sequences of given circulation types, namely the tendency towards temperature increase (decrease) during those types conducive to heat waves (cold spells). Since mean lengths of all circulation supertypes are overestimated in the RCMs, we conclude that the overly persistent circulation in climate models contributes to the overestimated frequency of long heat waves and cold spells. As these biases are rather general among the examined RCMs and similar drawbacks are likely to be manifested in climate model simulations for the twenty-first century, the results also suggest that climate change scenarios for

  9. Quantitative reconstruction of sea-surface conditions over the last 150 yr in the Beaufort Sea based on dinoflagellate cyst assemblages: the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Durantou


    Full Text Available Dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst assemblages have been widely used over the Arctic Ocean to reconstruct sea-surface parameters on a quantitative basis. Such reconstructions provide insights into the role of anthropogenic vs natural forcings in the actual climatic trend. Here, we present the palynological analysis of a dated 36 cm-long core collected from the Mackenzie Trough in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. Dinocyst assemblages were used to quantitatively reconstruct the evolution of sea-surface conditions (temperature, salinity, sea ice and freshwater palynomorphs fluxes were used as local paleo-river discharge indicators over the last ~ 150 yr. Dinocyst assemblages are dominated by autotrophic taxa (68 to 96%. Cyst of Pentapharsodinium dalei is the dominant species throughout most of the core, except at the top where the assemblages are dominated by Operculodinium centrocarpum. Quantitative reconstructions of sea-surface parameters display a series of relatively warm, lower sea ice and saline episodes in surface waters, alternately with relatively cool and low salinity episodes. Variations of dinocyst fluxes and reconstructed sea-surface conditions may be closely linked to large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and to a lesser degree, the Arctic Oscillation (AO. Positive phases of the PDO correspond to increases of dinocyst fluxes, warmer and saltier surface waters, which we associate with upwelling events of warm and relatively saline water from Pacific origin. Freshwater palynomorph fluxes increased in three phases from AD 1857 until reaching maximum values in AD 1991, suggesting that the Mackenzie River discharge followed the same trend when its discharge peaked between AD 1989 and AD 1992. The PDO mode seems to dominate the climatic variations at multi-annual to decadal timescales in the western Canadian Arctic and Beaufort Sea areas.

  10. Quantitative reconstruction of sea-surface conditions over the last ~150 yr in the Beaufort Sea based on dinoflagellate cyst assemblages: the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (United States)

    Durantou, L.; Rochon, A.; Ledu, D.; Massé, G.


    Dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages have been widely used over the Arctic Ocean to reconstruct sea-surface parameters on a quantitative basis. Such reconstructions provide insights into the role of anthropogenic vs natural forcings in the actual climatic trend. Here, we present the palynological analysis of a 36 cm-long core collected from the Mackenzie Through in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. Dinocyst assemblages were used to quantitatively reconstruct the evolution of sea surface conditions (temperature, salinity, sea ice) and freshwater palynomorphs influxes were used as local paleo-river discharge indicators over the last ~150 yr. Dinocyst assemblages are dominated by autotrophic taxa (68 to 96 %). Pentapharsodinium dalei is the dominant specie throughout most of the core, except at the top where the assemblages are dominated by Operculodinium centrocarpum. Quantitative reconstructions of sea surface parameters display a serie of relatively warm, lower sea ice and saline episodes in surface waters, alternately with relatively cool and low salinity episodes. The warm episodes are characterized with high dinocyst productivity. Variations of dinocyst influxes and reconstructed sea surface conditions are closely linked to large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and to a lesser degree, the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive phases of the PDO correspond to increases of dinocyst influxes, warmer and saltier surface waters, which we associate with upwelling events of warm and relatively saline water from Pacific origin. Freshwater palynomorph influxes increased in three phases from AD 1857 until reaching maximum values in AD 1991, suggesting that the Mackenzie River discharge followed the same trend when its discharge peaked between AD 1989 and AD 1992. The PDO mode seems to dominate the climatic variations at multi-annual to decadal timescales in the Western Canadian Arctic and Beaufort Sea areas.

  11. Seasonal variability of the drought phenomena in the Danube River catchment area and its relationship with large-scale anomaly patterns in spring (United States)

    Chelcea, Silvia; Ionita, Monica; Scholz, Patrick; Rimbu, Norel


    Seasonal variability of the drought phenomena in the Danube River catchment area and its relationship with the large-scale climate anomaly patterns for the spring season (March-May) is investigated trough a statistical analysis of the self calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and global climate anomaly fields. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis (EOFs) was employed to study the spatio-temporal variability of the drought phenomena over the Danube River catchment area. The first EOF mode (EOF1) for both scPDSI and SPEI shows a monopolar structure with negative loadings all over the catchment area, while the second EOF (EOF2) shows a dipole structure between the western part and the eastern part of the catchment area. A composite analysis reveals that the drought conditions, in spring, over the whole catchment area (corresponding to EOF1) are related to a sea surface temperature pattern characterized by positive SST anomalies over the eastern part of the U.S. coast and the western part of the European coast and negative SST anomalies over the central and the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. The corresponding atmospheric circulation pattern is characterized by negative Geopotential Height at 500 mb (Z500) over Greenland and positive Z500 anomalies over the central Atlantic Ocean extending up to the whole European continent. Dry (wet) conditions over the western (eastern) part of the Danube River catchment area, related to the second mode of variability (EOF2), are related with a more regional SST pattern characterized by negative SST anomalies over the eastern coast of U.S and the Mediterranean Sea and positive SST anomalies over the western coast of Europe. The corresponding Z500 pattern is characterized by a center of positive Z500 anomalies over the British Isles and the north-western part of Europe and negative Z500 anomalies over the southern part of Europe. A wavelet analysis

  12. Impacts of the IOD-associated temperature and salinity anomalies on the intermittent equatorial undercurrent anomalies (United States)

    Li, Junde; Liang, Chujin; Tang, Youmin; Liu, Xiaohui; Lian, Tao; Shen, Zheqi; Li, Xiaojing


    The study of Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) has attracted a broad attention in recent years due to its strong response and feedback to the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this paper, we first produce a high-quality simulation of three-dimensional temperature, salinity and zonal current simulation from 1982 to 2014, using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. On this basis, with two sensitivity experiments, we investigate the role of temperature and salinity anomalies in driving and enhancing the EUC during the positive IOD events by examining the variation of the EUC seasonal cycle and diagnosing the zonal momentum budget along the equatorial Indian Ocean. Our results show that during January-March, the EUC can appear along the entire equatorial Indian Ocean in all years, but during August-November, the EUC can appear and reach the eastern Indian Ocean only during the positive IOD events. The zonal momentum budget analysis indicates that the pressure gradient force contributes most to the variation of the eastward acceleration of zonal currents in the subsurface. During the positive IOD events, strong negative subsurface temperature anomalies exist in the eastern Indian Ocean, with negative surface salinity anomalies in the central and eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in a large pressure gradient force to drive EUC during the August-November. Further, the results of two sensitivity experiments indicate that the temperature anomalies significantly impact the pressure gradient force, playing a leading role in driving the EUC, while the surface salinity anomalies can secondarily help to intensify the eastward EUC through increasing the zonal density gradient in the eastern Indian Ocean and impacting the vertical momentum advection in the subsurface.

  13. More about discrete gauge anomalies

    CERN Document Server

    Ibáñez, L E


    I discuss and extend several results concerning the cancellation of discrete gauge anomalies. I show how heavy fermions do not decouple in the presence of discrete gauge anomalies. As a consequence, in general, cancellation of discrete gauge anomalies cannot be described merely in terms of low energy operators involving only the light fermions. I also discuss cancellation of discrete gauge anomalies through a discrete version of the Green-Schwarz (GS) mechanism as well as the possibility of discrete gauge R-symmetries and their anomalies. Finally, some phenomenological applications are discussed. This includes symmetries guaranteeing absence of FCNC in two-Higgs models and generalized matter parities stabilizing the proton in the supersymmetric standard model. In the presence of a discrete GS mechanism or/and gauge R-symmetries, new possibilities for anomaly free such symmetries are found.

  14. Anomaly detection: eye movement patterns. (United States)

    Ni, W; Fodor, J D; Crain, S; Shankweiler, D


    The symptom of a garden path in sentence processing is an important anomaly in the input string. This anomaly signals to the parser that an error has occurred, and provides cues for how to repair it. Anomaly detection is thus an important aspect of sentence processing. In the present study, we investigated how the parser responds to unambiguous sentences that contain syntactic anomalies and pragmatic anomalies, examining records of eye movement during reading. While sensitivity to the two kinds of anomaly was very rapid and essentially simultaneous, qualitative differences existed in the patterns of first-pass reading times and eye regressions. The results are compatible with the proposal that syntactic information and pragmatic information are used differently in garden-path recovery.

  15. What is a Timing Anomaly?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cassez, Franck; Hansen, Rene Rydhof; Olesen, Mads Chr.


    Timing anomalies make worst-case execution time analysis much harder, because the analysis will have to consider all local choices. It has been widely recognised that certain hardware features are timing anomalous, while others are not. However, defining formally what a timing anomaly is, has been...... difficult. We examine previous definitions of timing anomalies, and identify examples where they do not align with common observations. We then provide a definition for consistently slower hardware traces that can be used to define timing anomalies and aligns with common observations....

  16. U.S. Terrain Corrected Free Air Anomalies (96) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This 2' gravity anomaly grid for the conterminous United States is NOT the input data set used in development of the GEOID96 model. This gravity grid models the 1.7...

  17. Thermal anomaly of Soultz-sous-Forets. [France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerard, A.; Menjoz, A.; Schwoerer, P.


    In the northern part of the Alsace region, to the north-east of Haguenau, the thermal anomaly of Soultz-sous-Forets presents itself as a particularly intense local paroxysm, increasing of 4.5/sup 0/C/100 m the geothermal gradient value, which is already very high in this region (6/sup 0/C/100 m). Recently, the Institut mixte de recherches geothermiques, in collaboration with the Service geologique regional d'Alsace, took up again the geological and thermal data of about 60 drillings having reached at least the Muschelkalk top or having approached it very closely in the whole region. The real origin of this anomaly is unknown until now. Yet various hypotheses were put forward, among which is water circulation. The latter has been selected here. As a low global upward hydraulic yield is sufficient to develop the anomaly observed, a first quantitative description of the system was realized, with the hypothesis of geothermal circulation between faults at the basement top. As a conclusion, it is proposed to drill a determined location, and to realize various research works, thus permitting to derive the real origins of the thermal anomaly.

  18. [Developmental venous anomaly (DVA)]. (United States)

    Zimmer, A; Hagen, T; Ahlhelm, F; Viera, J; Reith, W; Schulte-Altedorneburg, G


    As congenital anatomic variants of venous drainage, developmental venous anomalies (DVA) represent up to 60% of all cerebral vascular malformations. The prior term "venous angioma" is a misnomer implicating an abnormal vascular structure with an increased bleeding risk. They are often found incidentally and are hardly ever symptomatic. Their morphologic characteristics are dilated vessels in the white matter, which converge on a greater collector vein, forming the typical caput medusae. They drain into the superficial or deep venous system. The frequent association with other, potentially bleeding-prone vascular malformations is clinically relevant, in particular cavernous angioma, which might require therapeutic action. Therefore, coincident vascular lesions need to be actively sought by appropriate additional imaging techniques.

  19. Anomalies and entanglement renormalization (United States)

    Bridgeman, Jacob C.; Williamson, Dominic J.


    We study 't Hooft anomalies of discrete groups in the framework of (1+1)-dimensional multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz states on the lattice. Using matrix product operators, general topological restrictions on conformal data are derived. An ansatz class allowing for optimization of MERA with an anomalous symmetry is introduced. We utilize this class to numerically study a family of Hamiltonians with a symmetric critical line. Conformal data is obtained for all irreducible projective representations of each anomalous symmetry twist, corresponding to definite topological sectors. It is numerically demonstrated that this line is a protected gapless phase. Finally, we implement a duality transformation between a pair of critical lines using our subclass of MERA.

  20. Low Risk Anomalies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

    This paper shows theoretically and empirically that beta- and volatility-based low risk anomalies are driven by return skewness. The empirical patterns concisely match the predictions of our model that endogenizes the role of skewness for stock returns through default risk. With increasing downside...... risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...... of betting against beta/volatility among low skew firms compared to high skew firms is economically large. Our results suggest that the returns to betting against beta or volatility do not necessarily pose asset pricing puzzles but rather that such strategies collect premia that compensate for skew risk...

  1. 1-deg x 1-deg Terrestrial Mean Free-Air Anomalies (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1x1 degree Terrestrial Mean Free-Air Gravity Anomaly and Geoid Undulations Data Base was compiled and developed by the Ohio State University. This data base was...

  2. SST Anomaly, NOAA POES AVHRR, Casey and Cornillon Climatology, 0.1 degrees, Global (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA CoastWatch distributes SST anomaly data using a combination of the POES AVHRR Global Area Coverage data, and data from a climatological database by Casey and...

  3. 30-min x 30-min Terrestrial Mean Free-Air Anomalies (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 30-min x 30-min Terrestrial Mean Free-Air Gravity Anomaly and Geoid Undulations Data Base was compiled and developed by the Ohio State University. This data base...

  4. NAO-ocean circulation interactions in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellucci, A. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Gualdi, S.; Navarra, A. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Scoccimarro, E. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)


    The interplay between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the large scale ocean circulation is inspected in a twentieth century simulation conducted with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model. Significant lead-lag covariance between oceanic and tropospheric variables suggests that the system supports a damped oscillatory mode involving an active ocean-atmosphere coupling, with a typical NAO-like space structure and a 5 years timescale, qualitatively consistent with a mid-latitude delayed oscillator paradigm. The two essential processes governing the oscillation are (1) a negative feedback between ocean gyre circulation and the high latitude SST meridional gradient and (2) a positive feedback between SST and the NAO. The atmospheric NAO pattern appears to have a weaker projection on the ocean meridional overturning, compared to the gyre circulation, which leads to a secondary role for the thermohaline circulation in driving the meridional heat transport, and thus the oscillatory mode. (orig.)

  5. Variability of Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its effects on the atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. T. Sutton


    Full Text Available The variability of the Atlantic meridional Ocean Heat Transport (OHT has been diagnosed from a simulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, and the mechanisms responsible for this variability have been elucidated. It has been demonstrated that the interannual variability in Atlantic OHT is dominated by windstress-driven Ekman fluctuations. In contrast, the decadal and multidecadal variability is associated with the fluctuations of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC, driven by the fluctuations in deep convection over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN Sea. The fluctuations of OHT induce Ocean Heat Content (OHC, and Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies over the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. The SST anomalies, in turn, have an impact on the atmosphere. The lead-lag relationships between the fluctuations of THC-related OHT and those of OHC and SST raise the possibility that a knowledge of OHT fluctuations could be used to predict variations in Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, and perhaps aspects of climate, several years in advance. A comparison of results from a second, independent, coupled model simulation is also presented, and similar conclusions reached.

  6. Anomaly detection in clinical processes. (United States)

    Huang, Zhengxing; Lu, Xudong; Duan, Huilong


    Meaningful anomalies in clinical processes may be related to caring performance or even the patient survival. It is imperative that the anomalies be timely detected such that useful and actionable knowledge of interest could be extracted to clinicians. Many previous approaches assume prior knowledge about the structure of clinical processes, using which anomalies are detected in a supervised manner. For a majority of clinical settings, however, clinical processes are complex, ad hoc, and even unknown a prior. In this paper, we investigate how to facilitate detection of anomalies in an unsupervised manner. An anomaly detection model is presented by applying a density-based clustering method on patient careflow logs. Using the learned model, it is possible to detect whether a particular patient careflow trace is anomalous with respect to normal traces in the logs. The approach has been validated over real data sets collected from a Chinese hospital.

  7. Seasonal overturning circulation in the Red Sea: 2. Winter circulation

    KAUST Repository

    Yao, Fengchao


    The shallow winter overturning circulation in the Red Sea is studied using a 50 year high-resolution MITgcm (MIT general circulation model) simulation with realistic atmospheric forcing. The overturning circulation for a typical year, represented by 1980, and the climatological mean are analyzed using model output to delineate the three-dimensional structure and to investigate the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The horizontal model circulation in the winter of 1980 is dominated by energetic eddies. The climatological model mean results suggest that the surface inflow intensifies in a western boundary current in the southern Red Sea that switches to an eastern boundary current north of 24N. The overturning is accomplished through a cyclonic recirculation and a cross-basin overturning circulation in the northern Red Sea, with major sinking occurring along a narrow band of width about 20 km along the eastern boundary and weaker upwelling along the western boundary. The northward pressure gradient force, strong vertical mixing, and horizontal mixing near the boundary are the essential dynamical components in the model\\'s winter overturning circulation. The simulated water exchange is not hydraulically controlled in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb; instead, the exchange is limited by bottom and lateral boundary friction and, to a lesser extent, by interfacial friction due to the vertical viscosity at the interface between the inflow and the outflow. Key Points Sinking occurs in a narrow boundary layer along the eastern boundary Surface western boundary current switches into an eastern boundary current Water exchange in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is not hydraulically controlled © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  8. Reliability of CHAMP Anomaly Continuations (United States)

    vonFrese, Ralph R. B.; Kim, Hyung Rae; Taylor, Patrick T.; Asgharzadeh, Mohammad F.


    CHAMP is recording state-of-the-art magnetic and gravity field observations at altitudes ranging over roughly 300 - 550 km. However, anomaly continuation is severely limited by the non-uniqueness of the process and satellite anomaly errors. Indeed, our numerical anomaly simulations from satellite to airborne altitudes show that effective downward continuations of the CHAMP data are restricted to within approximately 50 km of the observation altitudes while upward continuations can be effective over a somewhat larger altitude range. The great unreliability of downward continuation requires that the satellite geopotential observations must be analyzed at satellite altitudes if the anomaly details are to be exploited most fully. Given current anomaly error levels, joint inversion of satellite and near- surface anomalies is the best approach for implementing satellite geopotential observations for subsurface studies. We demonstrate the power of this approach using a crustal model constrained by joint inversions of near-surface and satellite magnetic and gravity observations for Maude Rise, Antarctica, in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Our modeling suggests that the dominant satellite altitude magnetic anomalies are produced by crustal thickness variations and remanent magnetization of the normal polarity Cretaceous Quiet Zone.

  9. Spontaneous hot flow anomalies at Mars and Venus (United States)

    Collinson, Glyn; Sibeck, David; Omidi, Nick; Grebowsky, Joseph; Halekas, Jasper; Mitchell, David; Espley, Jared; Zhang, Tielong; Persson, Moa; Futaana, Yoshifumi; Jakosky, Bruce


    We report the first observations of Spontaneous Hot Flow Anomalies (SHFAs) at Venus and Mars, demonstrating their existence in the foreshocks of other planets beyond Earth. Using data from the ESA Venus Express and the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft, we present magnetic and plasma observations from events at both planets, exhibiting properties similar to "classical" Hot Flow Anomalies, with bounding shock-like compressive regions and a hot and diffuse core. However, these explosive foreshock transients were observed without any attendant interplanetary magnetic field discontinuity, consistent with SHFAs observed at Earth and our hybrid simulations.

  10. Quantum topology and global anomalies

    CERN Document Server

    Baadhio, R A


    Anomalies are ubiquitous features in quantum field theories. They can ruin the consistency of such theories and put significant restrictions on their viability, especially in dimensions higher than four. Global gauge and gravitational anomalies are to date, one of the scant powerful and probing tools available to physicists in the pursuit of uniqueness.This monograph is one of the very few that specializes in the study of global anomalies in quantum field theories. A discussion of various issues associated to three dimensional physics - the Chern-Simons-Witten theories - widen the scope of thi

  11. Role of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction in the Midlatitude North Atlantic on Interannual Climate Variability. (United States)

    Bhatt, Uma Suren

    The primary mode of observed interannual variability in the North Atlantic is characterized by a north-south oriented dipole pattern in anomalies of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). The atmospheric circulation associated with the dipole mode of variability is consistent with the notion of the atmosphere forcing the ocean. The impact of air-sea interaction on the dipole-like mode of variability is examined using a mixed layer model (MLM) of the upper ocean in the North Atlantic between 20-60 ^circN coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1). The climatology of the MLM ocean temperature is adjusted to be consistent with the SSTs that form the lower boundary conditions for CCM1 by including heat flux corrections in the net forcing of the ocean. Heat and salt flux corrections are calculated in a series of uncoupled simulations where the MLM is forced with CCM1 surface fluxes. The natural variability in a 31-year integration of the MLM in the North Atlantic coupled to CCM1 is compared to a CCM1 control simulation of similar length with SSTs specified to have the same climatological annual cycle as in the coupled integration. The mean December to February (DJF) climatology is essentially unchanged with the inclusion of midlatitude air-sea interaction. However, air-sea interaction leads to significant increases in the persistence of air temperature anomalies on interannual as well as monthly time scales. In the model subpolar North Atlantic, air and ocean temperature anomalies are significantly autocorrelated (0.4 to 0.6) from one winter to the following winter. These autocorrelations are consistent with the 'Re-emergence' mechanism (Namias and Born, 1970). Deep ocean temperature anomalies, present at the end of one winter, remained sequestered below the shallow summer mixed layer. As the mixed layer deepens during the following fall, ocean temperature anomalies from the previous winter are reincorporated into the surface layer. February

  12. Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Di Capua, Giorgia; Coumou, Dim


    Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate

  13. Wind forcing of salinity anomalies in the Denmark Strait overflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hall


    Full Text Available The overflow of dense water from the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic through Denmark Strait is an important part of the global thermohaline circulation. The salinity of the overflow plume has been measured by an array of current meters across the continental slope off the coast of Angmagssalik, southeast Greenland since September 1998. During 2004 the salinity of the overflow plume changed dramatically; the entire width of the array (70 km freshened between January 2004 and July 2004, with a significant negative salinity anomaly of about 0.06 in May. The event in May represents a fresh anomaly of over 3 standard deviations from the mean since recording began in 1998. The OCCAM 1/12° Ocean General Circulation Model not only reproduces the 2004 freshening event (r=0.96, p<0.01, but also correlates well with salinity observations over a previous 6 year period (r=0.54, p<0.01, despite the inevitable limitations of a z-coordinate model in representing the mixing processes at and downstream of the Denmark Strait sill. Consequently the physical processes causing the 2004 anomaly and prior variability in salinity are investigated using the model output. Our results reject the hypotheses that the anomaly is caused by processes occurring between the overflow sill and the moorings, or by an increase in upstream net freshwater input. Instead, we show that the 2004 salinity anomaly is caused by an increase in volume flux of low salinity water, with a potential density greater than 27.60 kg m−3, flowing towards the Denmark Strait sill in the East Greenland Current. This is caused by an increase in southward wind stress upstream of the sill at around 75° N 20° W four and a half months earlier, and an associated strengthening of the East Greenland Current.

  14. Intraseasonal Variability in an Aquaplanet General Circulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam H Sobel


    Full Text Available An aquaplanet atmospheric general circulation model simulation with a robust intraseasonal oscillation is analyzed. The SST boundary condition resembles the observed December-April average with continents omitted, although with the meridional SST gradient reduced to be one-quarter of that observed poleward of 10 ̊ latitude. Slow, regular eastward propagation at 5 m s21 in winds and precipitation with amplitude greater than that in the observed MJO is clearly identified in unfiltered fields. Local precipitation rate is a strongly non-linear and increasing function of column precipitable water, as in observations. The model intraseasonal oscillation resembles a moisture mode that is destabilized by wind-evaporation feedback, and that propagates eastward through advection of anomalous humidity by the sum of perturbation winds and mean westerly flow. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to test hypothesized mechanisms. A mechanism denial experiment in which intraseasonal latent heat flux variability is removed largely eliminates intraseasonal wind and precipitation variability. Reducing the lower-troposphere westerly flow in the warm pool by reducing the zonal SST gradient slows eastward propagation, supporting the importance of horizontal advection by the low-level wind to eastward propagation. A zonally symmetric SST basic state produces weak and unrealistic intraseasonal variability between 30 and 90 day timescales, indicating the importance of mean low-level westerly winds and hence a realistic phase relationship between precipitation and surface flux anomalies for producing realistic tropical intraseasonal variability.

  15. Rainfall Predictions From Global Salinity Anomalies (United States)

    Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.; Liu, T.


    We have discovered that sea surface salinity (SSS) is a better seasonal predictor of terrestrial rainfall than sea surface temperature (SST) or the usual pressure modes of atmospheric variability. In many regions, a 3-6 month lead of SSS over rainfall on land can be seen. While some lead is guaranteed due to the simple conservation of water and salt, the robust seasonal lead for SSS in some places is truly remarkable, often besting traditional SST and pressure predictors by a very significant margin. One mechanism for the lead has been identified in the recycling of water on land through soil moisture in regional ocean to land moisture transfers. However, a global search has yielded surprising long-range SSS-rainfall teleconnections. It is suggested that these teleconnections indicate a marked sensitivity of the atmosphere to where rain falls on the ocean. That is, the latent heat of evaporation is by far the largest energy transfer from ocean to atmosphere and where the atmosphere cashes in this energy in the form of precipitation is well recorded in SSS. SSS also responds to wind driven advection and mixing. Thus, SSS appears to be a robust indicator of atmospheric energetics and moisture transport and the timing and location of rainfall events is suggested to influence the subsequent evolution of the atmospheric circulation. In a sense, if the fall of a rain drop is at least equivalent to the flap of a butterfly's wings, the influence of a billion butterfly rainstorm allows for systematic predictions beyond the chaotic nature of the turbulent atmosphere. SSS is found to be particularly effective in predicting extreme precipitation or droughts, which makes its continued monitoring very important for building societal resilience against natural disasters.

  16. [Cutaneous vascular anomalies in children]. (United States)

    Yilmaz, L; Kacenelenbogen, N


    Vascular anomalies, which are erroneously categorized under the term angiomas, are a highly heterogeneous group of lesions that are poorly understood and affect a mean of 5 to 10 % of children. The fortuitous discovery of propranolol's efficacy in one of these entities has made them a topical issue. The paper's main objective is to inform family doctors of the various types of vascular anomalies, clarify their classification, and provide a common terminology. Its secondary objective is to provide a decision tree that enables primary care doctors to avoid diagnostic pitfalls, successfully detect cases, and optimize management. Systematic review. According to a recent study, 71,3 % of publications use the term hemangioma erroneously, regardless of the authors' field. The key for family doctors is to use one international classification only, that of the International Society for the Study of Vascular Anomalies (ISSVA), in order to facilitate management and comprehension between the different healthcare levels. The diagnosis of vascular anomalies is clinical in 90 % of cases, so all family doctors can, whilst using a decision tree, diagnose a vascular anomaly and refer only those that are complex for specialist care. The most common vascular anomaly is infantile hemangioma in infants, which spontaneously regresses around the age of 5-7 years in 90 % of cases. Watchful waiting and regular follow-up suffice, therefore, in such settings.

  17. Shallow Circulations: Relevance and Strategies for Satellite Observation (United States)

    Bellon, Gilles; Reitebuch, Oliver; Naumann, Ann Kristin


    Shallow circulations are central to many tropical cloud systems. We investigate the potential of existing and upcoming data to document these circulations. Different methods to observe or constrain atmospheric circulations rely on satellite-borne instruments. Direct observations of the wind are currently possible at the ocean surface or using tracer patterns. Satellite-borne wind lidar will soon be available, with a much better coverage and accuracy. Meanwhile, circulations can be constrained using satellite observations of atmospheric diabatic heating. We evaluate the commonalities and discrepancies of these estimates together with reanalysis in systems that include shallow circulations. It appears that existing datasets are in qualitative agreement, but that they still differ too much to provide robust evaluation criteria for general circulation models. This state of affairs highlights the potential of satellite-borne wind lidar and of further work on current satellite retrievals.

  18. Atlantic Induced Pan-tropical Climate Variability in the Upper-ocean and Atmosphere (United States)

    Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.


    During the last three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Western Pacific but cooling over the Eastern Pacific. The Eastern Pacific cooling has recently been identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus. Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, which could potentially contribute to this zonally asymmetric SST pattern. However, the mechanisms and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. To investigate these questions, we performed a `pacemaker' simulation by restoring the tropical Atlantic SST changes in a state-of-the-art climate model - the CESM1. Results show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnections, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute 55%-75% of the total tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. A hierarchy of oceanic and atmospheric models are then used to investigate the physical mechanisms of these teleconnections: the Atlantic warming enhances atmospheric deep convection, drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific through the Kelvin wave, and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution (Fig1a). These wind changes induce an Indo-Western Pacific warming via the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the upper Pacific Ocean by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean-dynamical processes (Fig1b). The teleconnection finally develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern with an enhanced trade wind and Walker circulation, similar as the observed changes during the satellite era. This mechanism reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought, and the Atlantic plays a key role in the tropical climate pattern formation and further the

  19. Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hofer


    Full Text Available The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.

  20. Thermal Radiation Anomalies Associated with Major Earthquakes (United States)

    Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Kafatos, Menas C.; Taylor, Patrick


    Recent developments of remote sensing methods for Earth satellite data analysis contribute to our understanding of earthquake related thermal anomalies. It was realized that the thermal heat fluxes over areas of earthquake preparation is a result of air ionization by radon (and other gases) and consequent water vapor condensation on newly formed ions. Latent heat (LH) is released as a result of this process and leads to the formation of local thermal radiation anomalies (TRA) known as OLR (outgoing Longwave radiation, Ouzounov et al, 2007). We compare the LH energy, obtained by integrating surface latent heat flux (SLHF) over the area and time with released energies associated with these events. Extended studies of the TRA using the data from the most recent major earthquakes allowed establishing the main morphological features. It was also established that the TRA are the part of more complex chain of the short-term pre-earthquake generation, which is explained within the framework of a lithosphere-atmosphere coupling processes.

  1. Prenatal sonographic diagnosis of focal musculoskeletal anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryu, Jung Kyu; Cho, Jeong Yeon; Lee, Young Ho; Kim, Ei Jeong; Chun, Yi Kyeong [Samsung Cheil Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    Focal musculoskeletal anomalies are various and may be an isolated finding or may be found in conjunction with numerous associations, including genetic syndromes, Karyotype abnormals, central nervous system anomalies and other general musculoskeletal disorders. Early prenatal diagnosis of these focal musculoskeletal anomalies nor only affects prenatal care and postnatal outcome but also helps in approaching other numerous associated anomalies.

  2. Coronary Artery Anomalies in Animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian A. Scansen


    Full Text Available Coronary artery anomalies represent a disease spectrum from incidental to life-threatening. Anomalies of coronary artery origin and course are well-recognized in human medicine, but have received limited attention in veterinary medicine. Coronary artery anomalies are best described in the dog, hamster, and cow though reports also exist in the horse and pig. The most well-known anomaly in veterinary medicine is anomalous coronary artery origin with a prepulmonary course in dogs, which limits treatment of pulmonary valve stenosis. A categorization scheme for coronary artery anomalies in animals is suggested, dividing these anomalies into those of major or minor clinical significance. A review of coronary artery development, anatomy, and reported anomalies in domesticated species is provided and four novel canine examples of anomalous coronary artery origin are described: an English bulldog with single left coronary ostium and a retroaortic right coronary artery; an English bulldog with single right coronary ostium and transseptal left coronary artery; an English bulldog with single right coronary ostium and absent left coronary artery with a prepulmonary paraconal interventricular branch and an interarterial circumflex branch; and a mixed-breed dog with tetralogy of Fallot and anomalous origin of all coronary branches from the brachiocephalic trunk. Coronary arterial fistulae are also described including a coronary cameral fistula in a llama cria and an English bulldog with coronary artery aneurysm and anomalous shunting vessels from the right coronary artery to the pulmonary trunk. These examples are provided with the intent to raise awareness and improve understanding of such defects.

  3. An assessment of the atmospheric centers of action in the northern hemisphere winter (United States)

    Sun, X. J.; Wang, P. X.; Wang, J. X. L.


    In the northern hemisphere, there are six permanent or semi-permanent atmospheric activity centers, namely the Icelandic Low, Aleutian Low, India Low, Mongolia High, North Pacific High, and North Atlantic High. The first four are semi-permanent action centers and the last two are permanent circulation systems. The India Low exists only during the summer. By using 160 years (1850-2009) of monthly mean sea level pressure data from the Hadley Centre in the UK, we conduct a comprehensive study of the five boreal winter atmospheric centers of action (ACAs). Based on a unified definition and a method determined in previous studies, we calculate the indices of areal coverage (S), intensity (P), and position of action center ( λ c, φ c) for each of these five ACAs. Through an in-depth analysis of these indices and their relationships with climate variables, we evaluate the indices by describing and explaining areal climate anomalies, particularly precipitation and temperature anomalies in China. We show that (1) ACAs significantly influence the climate anomalies of surrounding areas (2) the influences of oceanic ACAs are larger and the intensity anomalies of ACAs have a greater impact than their location displacement, and (3) ACAs exert more control on temperature than they do on precipitation. For the two ACAs over the north Atlantic, the impacts of their intensities on the anomalies of temperature and precipitation are similar. For the two ACAs over the north Pacific, their influences are almost the opposite. The most influential ACA for climate anomalies in China during the boreal winter is HMO. When HMO is stronger, China has a colder winter and it is wetter in the north. With stronger ACAs in the upstream, i.e., the Icelandic Low and North Atlantic High, northern China has a warmer winter. The ACAs over the north Pacific exert little influence on climate anomalies in China during winter. The analyses presented in this paper provide a set of useful indices for

  4. Development and comparison of circulation type classifications using the COST 733 dataset and software

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Philipp, Andreas; Beck, Christoph; Huth, Radan; Jacobeit, Jucundus


    ... a specially developed software package. Twenty‐seven basic automatic classification methods have been applied in several variants to different input datasets describing atmospheric circulation...

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Western Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oE-180o (western equatorial...

  6. Atmospheric controls on Eurasian snow extent (United States)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Serreze, Mark C.; Robinson, David A.


    Composite analyses, based on weekly snow-cover charts, temperature, sea level pressure, cyclone tracks and a rotated PCA of daily filtered 700 hPa geopotential height are used to examine relationships between the dominant modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability and mid-winter snow extent over the Eurasian continent. Two of the circulation modes examined have been identified previously and represent the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Eurasian Type 1 (EU1) pattern. A third, termed the Siberian pattern (SIB), has not been identified previously, and describes variability in 700 hPa height over central Asia and southern Siberia. The most coherent snow-cover signals occur in the transient snow regions over Europe and south-western Asia, where variations in snow extent are largely controlled by temperature. Snow signals in east Asia are difficult to explain, but appear to be primarily determined by the availability of precipitation. For the NAO, snow-cover signals are largely restricted to central Europe. This result is initially surprising, as the NAO is associated with large temperature anomalies over a large part of the Eurasian continent. However, east of the Ural Mountains temperature anomalies in NAO extremes are confined to northern regions where mean temperatures are well below freezing, and air temperatures have little influence on snow extent. In extremes of the EU1 and SIB patterns, significant snow-cover signals are found in south-western Asia, where variability in the amplitude of the Eurasian wave train results in large differences in air temperature and cyclone activity over the transient snow regions. No coherent snow-cover signals are associated with extremes of the Siberian High.

  7. Atmospheric Drivers of Greenland Surface Melt Revealed by Self-Organizing Maps (United States)

    Mioduszewski, J. R.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A.; Tedesco, M.; Noble, E. U.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.


    Recent acceleration in surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has occurred concurrently with a rapidly warming Arctic and has been connected to persistent, anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over Greenland. To identify synoptic setups favoring enhanced GrIS surface melt and their decadal changes, we develop a summer Arctic synoptic climatology by employing self-organizing maps. These are applied to daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields obtained from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis, 1979-2014. Particular circulation regimes are related to meteorological conditions and GrIS surface melt estimated with outputs from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional. Our results demonstrate that the largest positive melt anomalies occur in concert with positive height anomalies near Greenland associated with wind, temperature, and humidity patterns indicative of strong meridional transport of heat and moisture. We find an increased frequency in a 500 hPa ridge over Greenland coinciding with a 63% increase in GrIS melt between the 1979-1988 and 2005-2014 periods, with 75.0% of surface melt changes attributed to thermodynamics, 17% to dynamics, and 8.0% to a combination. We also confirm that the 2007-2012 time period has the largest dynamic forcing relative of any period but also demonstrate that increased surface energy fluxes, temperature, and moisture separate from dynamic changes contributed more to melt even during this period. This implies that GrIS surface melt is likely to continue to increase in response to an ever warmer future Arctic, regardless of future atmospheric circulation patterns.

  8. Non-relativistic scale anomalies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arav, Igal [Raymond and Beverly Sackler School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel-Aviv University,55 Haim Levanon street, Tel-Aviv, 69978 (Israel); Chapman, Shira [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics,31 Caroline Street North, ON N2L 2Y5 (Canada); Oz, Yaron [Raymond and Beverly Sackler School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel-Aviv University,55 Haim Levanon street, Tel-Aviv, 69978 (Israel)


    We extend the cohomological analysis in arXiv:1410.5831 of anisotropic Lifshitz scale anomalies. We consider non-relativistic theories with a dynamical critical exponent z=2 with or without non-relativistic boosts and a particle number symmetry. We distinguish between cases depending on whether the time direction does or does not induce a foliation structure. We analyse both 1+1 and 2+1 spacetime dimensions. In 1+1 dimensions we find no scale anomalies with Galilean boost symmetries. The anomalies in 2+1 dimensions with Galilean boosts and a foliation structure are all B-type and are identical to the Lifshitz case in the purely spatial sector. With Galilean boosts and without a foliation structure we find also an A-type scale anomaly. There is an infinite ladder of B-type anomalies in the absence of a foliation structure with or without Galilean boosts. We discuss the relation between the existence of a foliation structure and the causality of the field theory.

  9. Intestinal vascular anomalies in children. (United States)

    Frémond, B; Yazbeck, S; Dubois, J; Brochu, P; Garel, L; Ouimet, A


    Vascular anomalies are an uncommon cause of gastrointestinal bleeding in childhood. Confusing nomenclature has made objective comparisons of published cases difficult and has interfered with an established consensus regarding diagnosis and therapeutic modalities. The purpose of this study was to clarify the situation by reviewing the records of all children who had intestinal vascular anomalies who were referred to our institution from 1975 to 1995. Thirteen lesions were identified in nine children (five boys and four girls). The median age at clinical onset was 8 years. Only two patients presented with a complex syndrome (Klippel-Trenaunay, 1; Osler-Rendu-Weber, 1). Diagnosis, location, and extension of these anomalies was only possible by angiography, which indicated that seven patients had isolated venous malformations and two had arteriovenous malformations. Because the lesions did not involve the serosa, intraoperative localization was a major problem. The main findings were a few slightly dilated mesenteric veins. Treatment was conservative in four children and surgical in five. Pathological findings on resected bowel demonstrated dilated and abnormal veins in the mucosa and submucosa. Selective angiography should not be delayed in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding if results of all other investigations are negative. Because these lesions are rarely recognizable on operative inspection, precise preoperative angiographic localization of intestinal vascular anomalies is essential to allow for a safe and limited resection of the involved bowel segment. Based on a better understanding of the natural history of these lesions, a classification of vascular anomalies of intestines in children is proposed.

  10. Staging atmospheres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Mikkel; Bjerregaard, Peter; Sørensen, Tim Flohr


    The article introduces the special issue on staging atmospheres by surveying the philosophical, political and anthropological literature on atmosphere, and explores the relationship between atmosphere, material culture, subjectivity and affect. Atmosphere seems to occupy one of the classic...

  11. Global atmospheric response to specific linear combinations of the main SST modes. Part I: numerical experiments and preliminary results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Trzaska


    Full Text Available This article investigates through numerical experiments the controversial question of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phenomena on climate according to large-scale and regional-scale interhemispheric thermal contrast. Eight experiments (two considering only inversed Atlantic thermal anomalies and six combining ENSO warm phase with large-scale interhemispheric contrast and Atlantic anomaly patterns were performed with the Météo-France atmospheric general circulation model. The definition of boundary conditions from observed composites and principal components is presented and preliminary results concerning the month of August, especially over West Africa and the equatorial Atlantic are discussed. Results are coherent with observations and show that interhemispheric and regional scale sea-surface-temperature anomaly (SST patterns could significantly modulate the impact of ENSO phenomena: the impact of warm-phase ENSO, relative to the atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP climatology, seems stronger when embedded in global and regional SSTA patterns representative of the post-1970 conditions [i.e. with temperatures warmer (colder than the long-term mean in the southern hemisphere (northern hemisphere]. Atlantic SSTAs may also play a significant role.

  12. Influence of boundary conditions on the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during the last glacial maximum Influência das condições de fronteira na circulação atmosférica do Hemisfério Sul durante o último máximo glacial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Justino


    Full Text Available Based upon coupled climate simulations driven by present day and glacial boundary conditions, we demonstrate that although the ice sheet topography modifications during the glacial period are primarily placed in the Northern Hemisphere (NH, a climate simulation that employs the ICE-5G glacial topography delivers significantly enhanced climate anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere (SH as well. These conditions, in association with climate anomalies produced by the modification of the atmospheric CO² concentration characteristic of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM interval, are shown to be the primary forcing of the SH climate during this epoch. Climate anomalies up to -6°C over the Antarctic region and -4°C over South America are predicted to occur in respect to present day conditions. Accompanying the SH cooling in the LGM simulation there exists a remarkable reduction in the specific humidity, which in turn enforces the overall Southern Hemisphere cooling due to the weaker greenhouse capacity of the dry atmosphere.Com base em simulações numéricas conduzidas com condições de fronteiras características dos períodos glaciais e atual, demonstra-se que embora as maiores anomalias da topografia da Terra no período glacial estejam no Hemisfério Norte, esta inclusão dos blocos de gelo leva a substanciais mudanças na circulação atmosférica austral para aquela época, indicando uma forte teleconexão inter-hemisférica. Em associação com a redução nos níveis de carbono atmosférico para 200 ppm, anomalias de temperatura de -6°C em torno da região antártica, e -4°C no continente sul-americano são simuladas para o último máximo glacial (UMG em relação a condições atuais. Concomitantemente, o UMG é caracterizado por uma drástica redução na umidade específica, que por sua vez intensifica o esfriamento inicial devido à mais fraca capacidade de estufa da atmosfera mais seca.

  13. The response of terrestrial carbon exchange and atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations to El Nino SST forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, S. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology


    and the cessation of oceanic upwelling are also intimately related, the opposing oceanic and terrestrial fluxes derived from isotope data have a sound physical explanation. The El Nino induced CO{sub 2} anomaly is tracked through space and time highlighting the important role the atmospheric circulation plays in controlling the evolution of the anomaly at any given location. The difficulty in ascribing observed fluctuations at the CO{sub 2} monitoring stations to specific regions and causes without considering atmospheric transport is demonstrated in this context 91 refs, 12 figs, 2 tabs, 2 plates

  14. WFC3 IR subarray anomaly (United States)

    Bushouse, Howard


    Certain combinations of WFC3 IR subarray size and sample sequence yield images that show a sharp change in background level that exactly bi-sects each detector amplifier quadrant. The change in level has an amplitude of a few DN per pixel. The cause of this anomaly and its apparent correlation with subarray size and sample sequence is not understood. Given the 4 available subarray sizes and 11 available readout sample sequences, there are a total of 44 possible subarray mode readout combinations. To date, 14 of those combinations have been used on-orbit in either calibration and GO programs. Of those, 3 combinations show the anomaly. This program will obtain IR dark exposures in the remaining 30 readout combinations that have not yet been explored. This will add to our knowledge of which combinations show the anomaly and will therefore help us to understand its origin.

  15. Multiple Visceral and Peritoneal Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gayathri Prabhu S


    Full Text Available Visceral and peritoneal anomalies are frequently encountered during cadaveric dissections and surgical procedures of abdomen. A thorough knowledge of the same is required for the success of diagnostic, surgical and radiological procedures of abdomen. We report multiple peritoneal and visceral anomalies noted during dissection classes for medical undergraduates. The anomalies were found in an adult male cadaver aged approximately 70 years. The right iliac fossa was empty due to the sub-hepatic position of caecum and appendix. The sigmoid colon formed an inverted “U” shaped loop above the sacral promontory in the median position. It entered the pelvis from the right side and descended along the lateral wall of the pelvis. The sigmoid mesocolon was attached obliquely to the posterior abdominal wall, just above the sacral promontory. Further there was a cysto-colic fold of peritoneum extending from the right colic flexure. We discuss the clinical significance of the variations.

  16. Graph anomalies in cyber communications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vander Wiel, Scott A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Storlie, Curtis B [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sandine, Gary [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hagberg, Aric A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Fisk, Michael [Los Alamos National Laboratory


    Enterprises monitor cyber traffic for viruses, intruders and stolen information. Detection methods look for known signatures of malicious traffic or search for anomalies with respect to a nominal reference model. Traditional anomaly detection focuses on aggregate traffic at central nodes or on user-level monitoring. More recently, however, traffic is being viewed more holistically as a dynamic communication graph. Attention to the graph nature of the traffic has expanded the types of anomalies that are being sought. We give an overview of several cyber data streams collected at Los Alamos National Laboratory and discuss current work in modeling the graph dynamics of traffic over the network. We consider global properties and local properties within the communication graph. A method for monitoring relative entropy on multiple correlated properties is discussed in detail.

  17. Global Horizontal Irradiance Anomalies in Long Term Series Over India (United States)

    Cony, Marco; Liria, Juan; Weisenberg, Ralf; Serrano, Enrique


    India has a high potential for solar energy applications due to its geographic position within the Sun Belt and the large number of cloudless days in many regions of the country. However, certain regions of India, particularly those largely populated, can exhibit large aerosol loading in the atmosphere as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions that could have a negative feedback in the solar resource potential. This effect, named as solar dimming, has already been observed in India, and in some other regions in the world, by some authors using ground data from the last two decades. The recent interest in the promotion of solar energy applications in India highlights the need of extending and improving the knowledge of the solar radiation resources in this country, since most of the long term measurements available correspond to global horizontal radiation (GHI) and most of them are also located big cities or highly populated areas. In addition, accurate knowledge on the aerosol column quantification and on its dynamical behavior with high spatial resolution is particularly important in the case of India, due to their impact on direct normal irradiation. Long term studies of solar irradiation over India can be performed using monthly means of GHI measurements from the Indian Meteorological Department. Ground data are available from 1964 till today through the World Radiation Data Centre that publish these values in the web. This work shows a long term analysis of GHI using anomalies techniques over ten different sites over India. Besides, techniques of linear trends have been applied for to show the evolution over this period. The analysis of anomalies has also found two periods of different behavior. From 1964 till 1988 the anomalies observed were positive and the last 20 years seems to be a period of negative anomalies. The results exhibit a decreasing trend and negative anomalies confirming thus the darkening effect already reported by solar dimming studies

  18. Ecosystem Greenhouse Gas Fluxes Respond Directly to Weather Not Climate: A Case Study on the Relationship of Global Atmospheric Circulation, Foehn Frequency, and Winter Weather to Northern Alps Regional Grassland Phenology and Carbon Cycling (United States)

    Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H. P. E.


    The impact of climate change on regional ecosystem structure and biogeochemical cycling has two important aspects that require better elaboration to improve projections of these effects. The first is that ecosystems don't respond directly to climate, but indirectly via frequency and occurrence of weather systems, which are driven by climatic shifts in global circulation and radiative processes. The second is that many responses of ecosystems to these weather patterns and extremes are lagged in time. Here, we examine these aspects for northern Alpine grasslands. Long-term eddy covariance flux tower and phenology observations in Austria and Germany and biophysical models reveal a strong influence of winter air temperature, snowfall, and snowmelt frequency on winter grass mortality and spring grassland carbon uptake. Further, the mode of climate variability that drives winter air temperature and snow depth patterns is primarily the frequency of strong regional southerly Foehn flow that promotes warm, dry conditions in winter. Finally, we demonstrate that much of the interannual variance in Foehn frequency and southerly flow is driven by statistics and climatic trends of 500 hPa pressure patterns in Greenland, part of the Arctic Oscillation. However, a few years, including the unusually warm and dry winter of 2013-2014 appear to have secondary, possibly local thermotopographic circulation factors that promoted its weather conditions regionally, which also included primarily cool and wet conditions in northern Europe and the southern Alps. These findings demonstrate that the regional response of ecosystems to climate change is modulated by how large-scale circulation patterns influence local meteorology and topographic flows both during and outside the growing season and provides a framework for future assessment and climate model improvements of linkages of climate change, weather patterns, and ecosystem responses.

  19. MODIS/Aqua Terra Thermal Anomalies/Fire locations 1km FIRMS V006 NRT (Vector data) (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Near Real-Time (NRT) MODIS Thermal Anomalies / Fire locations processed by FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) - Land Atmosphere Near real time...

  20. Microwave circulator design

    CERN Document Server

    Linkhart, Douglas K


    Circulator design has advanced significantly since the first edition of this book was published 25 years ago. The objective of this second edition is to present theory, information, and design procedures that will enable microwave engineers and technicians to design and build circulators successfully. This resource contains a discussion of the various units used in the circulator design computations, as well as covers the theory of operation. This book presents numerous applications, giving microwave engineers new ideas about how to solve problems using circulators. Design examples are provided, which demonstrate how to apply the information to real-world design tasks.

  1. Global gravitational anomalies and transport (United States)

    Chowdhury, Subham Dutta; David, Justin R.


    We investigate the constraints imposed by global gravitational anomalies on parity odd induced transport coefficients in even dimensions for theories with chiral fermions, gravitinos and self dual tensors. The η-invariant for the large diffeomorphism corresponding to the T transformation on a torus constraints the coefficients in the thermal effective action up to mod 2. We show that the result obtained for the parity odd transport for gravitinos using global anomaly matching is consistent with the direct perturbative calculation. In d = 6 we see that the second Pontryagin class in the anomaly polynomial does not contribute to the η-invariant which provides a topological explanation of this observation in the `replacement rule'. We then perform a direct perturbative calculation for the contribution of the self dual tensor in d = 6 to the parity odd transport coefficient using the Feynman rules proposed by Gaumé and Witten. The result for the transport coefficient agrees with that obtained using matching of global anomalies.

  2. Anomaly detection in diurnal data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mata, F.; Zuraniewski, P.W.; Mandjes, M.; Mellia, M.


    In this paper we present methodological advances in anomaly detection tailored to discover abnormal traffic patterns under the presence of seasonal trends in data. In our setup we impose specific assumptions on the traffic type and nature; our study features VoIP call counts, for which several

  3. Extension of magnetic anomaly rule (United States)

    Moskowitz, P. A.


    The Moskowitz-Lombardi rule which has established a relationship for magnetic hyperfine-structure anomalies for ten mercury, Z = 80, isotopes and isomers is extended, in the light of new experimental work, to iridium, gold, and thallium, Z = 77, 79, and 81 respectively

  4. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change. (United States)

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J


    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.

  5. Experimental circulation loss study


    Lund, Sigurd


    Circulation losses could occur during any operation that involves pumping into a well. As of today, it is recognized as one of the most costly drilling problems. In some situation it might be hard to stop, and usually takes precious rig time to deal with the problem. In order to mitigate the risk of circulation loss solid pa...

  6. Boiler circulation calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ganapathy, V. [ABCO Industries, Abilene, TX (United States)


    Natural circulation water tube and fire tube boilers are widely used in the chemical process industry. These are preferred to forced-circulation boilers where a circulation pump ensures flow of a steam/water mixture through the tubes. In addition to being an operating expense, a pump failure can have serious consequences in such systems. The motive force driving the steam/water mixture through the tubes (water tube boilers) or over tubes (fire tube boilers) in natural-circulation systems is the difference in density between cooler water in the downcomer circuits and the steam/water mixture in the riser tubes. This flow must be adequate to cool the tubes and prevent overheating. This article explains how circulation ratio or the ratio of steam/water mixture to steam flow may be evaluated.

  7. Mesozoic anomalies in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramana, M.V.; Nair, R.R.; Sarma, K.V.L.N.S.; Ramprasad, T.; Krishna, K.S.; Subrahmanyam, V.; D'Cruz, M.; Subrahmanyam, C.; Paul, J.; Subrahmanyam, A.S.; Sekhar, D.V.C.

    The analysis of 8200 line km of total magnetic intensity data in the Bay of Bengal, northeastern Indian Ocean, revealed the presence of approximately N30~'E-trending seafloor spreading type magnetic anomalies. These anomalies resemble the Mesozoic...

  8. Dynamics of the terrestrial biosphere, climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration during interglacials: a comparison between Eemian and Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Schurgers


    Full Text Available A complex earth system model (atmosphere and ocean general circulation models, ocean biogeochemistry and terrestrial biosphere was used to perform transient simulations of two interglacial sections (Eemian, 128–113 ky B.P., and Holocene, 9 ky B.P.–present. The changes in terrestrial carbon storage during these interglacials were studied with respect to changes in the earth's orbit. The effects of different climate factors on changes in carbon storage were studied in offline experiments in which the vegetation model was forced only with temperature, hydrological parameters, radiation, or CO2 concentration from the transient runs. The largest anomalies in terrestrial carbon storage were caused by temperature changes. However, the increase in storage due to forest expansion and increased photosynthesis in the high latitudes was nearly balanced by the decrease due to increased respiration. Large positive effects on carbon storage were caused by an enhanced monsoon circulation in the subtropics between 128 and 121 ky B.P. and between 9 and 6 ky B.P., and by increases in incoming radiation during summer for 45° to 70° N compared to a control simulation with present-day insolation. Compared to this control simulation, the net effect of these changes was a positive carbon storage anomaly in the terrestrial biosphere of about 200 Pg C for 125 ky B.P. and 7 ky B.P., and a negative anomaly around 150 Pg C for 116 ky B.P. Although the net increases for Eemian and Holocene were rather similar, the magnitudes of the processes causing these effects were different. The decrease in terrestrial carbon storage during the experiments was the main driver of an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during both the Eemian and the Holocene.

  9. The Southern Hemisphere semiannual oscillation and circulation variability during the Mid-Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Ackerley


    Full Text Available The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP was undertaken to assess the climatic effects of the presence of large ice-sheets and changes in the Earth's orbital parameters in fully coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. Much of the previous literature has focussed on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial maximum and Mid-Holocene whereas this study focuses only on the Southern Hemisphere. This study addresses the representation of the Semiannual Oscillation (SAO in the PMIP2 models and how it may have changed during the Mid-Holocene. The output from the five models suggest a weakening of the (austral autumn circumpolar trough (CPT and (in all but one model a strengthening of the spring CPT. The effects of changing the orbital parameters are to cause warming and drying during spring over New Zealand and a cooling and moistening during autumn. The amount of spring warming/drying and autumn cooling/moistening is variable between the models and depends on the climatological locations of surface pressure anomalies associated with changes in the SAO. This study also undertakes an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis of the leading modes of atmospheric variability during the control and Mid-Holocene phases for each model. Despite the seasonal changes, the overall month by month and interannual variability was simulated to have changed little from the Mid-Holocene to present.

  10. Excitation of equatorial Kelvin and Yanai waves by tropical cyclones in an ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. L. Sriver


    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs actively contribute to the dynamics of Earth's coupled climate system. They influence oceanic mixing rates, upper-ocean heat content, and air–sea fluxes, with implications for atmosphere and ocean dynamics on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Using an ocean general circulation model with modified surface wind forcing, we explore how TC winds can excite equatorial ocean waves in the tropical Pacific. We highlight a situation where three successive TCs in the western North Pacific region, corresponding to events in 2003, excite a combination of Kelvin and Yanai waves in the equatorial Pacific. The resultant thermocline adjustment significantly modifies the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Pacific and leads to eastward zonal heat transport. Observations of upper-ocean temperature by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO buoy array and sea-level height anomalies using altimetry reveal wave passage during the same time period with similar properties to the modeled wave, although our idealized model methodology disallows precise identification of the TC forcing with the observed waves. Results indicate that direct oceanographic forcing by TCs may be important for understanding the spectrum of equatorial ocean waves, thus remotely influencing tropical mixing and surface energy budgets. Because equatorial Kelvin waves are closely linked to interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, these findings also suggest TC wind forcing may influence the timing and amplitude of El Niño events.

  11. Response of the Western European climate to a collapse of the thermohaline circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurian, A.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Hazeleger, W.; Hurk, B. van den [KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands)


    Two ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model have been investigated for the atmospheric response to a thermohaline circulation (THC) collapse. The model forcing was specified from observations between 1950 and 2000 and it followed a rising greenhouse gases emission scenario from 2001 to 2100. In one ensemble, a THC collapse was induced by adding freshwater in the northern North Atlantic, from 2001 onwards. After about 20 years, an almost stationary response pattern develops, that is, after the THC collapse, global mean temperature rises equally fast in both ensembles with the hosing ensemble displaying a constant offset. The atmospheric response to the freshwater hosing features a strong zonal gradient in the anomalous 2-m air temperature over Western Europe, associated with a strong land-sea contrast. Since Western Europe climate features a strong marine impact due to the prevailing westerlies, the question arises how such a strong land-sea contrast can be maintained. We show that a strong secondary cloud response is set up with increased cloud cover over sea and decreased cloud cover over land. Also, the marine impact on Western European climate decreases, which results from a reduced transport of moist static energy from sea to land. As a result, the change in lapse rate over the cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies west of the continent is much larger than over land, dominated by changes in moisture content rather than temperature. (orig.)

  12. Seasonal circulations in the Malay Peninsula Eastern continental shelf from a wave-tide-circulation coupled model (United States)

    Tangang, Fredolin T.; Xia, Changsui; Qiao, Fangli; Juneng, Liew; Shan, Feng


    A wave-tide-circulation coupled model based on Princeton Ocean Model is established to study the seasonal circulation in the Malay Peninsula Eastern Continental Shelf region. The model successfully reconstructs the observed seasonal variation of the circulation in the region, as well as the main currents. The simulated tidal harmonic constants, sea surface temperature, and sea surface height anomaly agree with the observations well. The model results show that the upper-layer circulation in the region is mainly controlled by the monsoon winds, while there are two transitions in spring and fall. An anti-cyclonic eddy is present off the Peninsular Malaysia's east coast in summer, centered at 5°N and 105.5°E, both in the TOPEX/Poseidon data and in the model. Numerical experiments show that the wind stress curl and bathymetry steering are responsible for its formation.

  13. Fetal renal anomalies : diagnosis, management, and outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damen-Elias, Henrica Antonia Maria


    In two to three percent of fetuses structural anomalies can be found with prenatal ultrasound investigation. Anomalies of the urinary tract account for 15 to 20% of these anomalies with a detection rate of approximately of 90%. In Chapter 2, 3 and 4 we present reference curves for size and growth

  14. Arctic sea-ice decline weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (United States)

    Sévellec, Florian; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Liu, Wei


    The ongoing decline of Arctic sea ice exposes the ocean to anomalous surface heat and freshwater fluxes, resulting in positive buoyancy anomalies that can affect ocean circulation. In this study, we use an optimal flux perturbation framework and comprehensive climate model simulations to estimate the sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to such buoyancy forcing over the Arctic and globally, and more generally to sea-ice decline. It is found that on decadal timescales, flux anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic have the largest impact on the AMOC, while on multi-decadal timescales (longer than 20 years), flux anomalies in the Arctic become more important. These positive buoyancy anomalies spread to the North Atlantic, weakening the AMOC and its poleward heat transport. Therefore, the Arctic sea-ice decline may explain the suggested slow-down of the AMOC and the `Warming Hole’ persisting in the subpolar North Atlantic.

  15. Holomorphic anomaly and quantum mechanics (United States)

    Codesido, Santiago; Mariño, Marcos


    We show that the all-orders WKB periods of one-dimensional quantum mechanical oscillators are governed by the refined holomorphic anomaly equations of topological string theory. We analyze in detail the double-well potential and the cubic and quartic oscillators, and we calculate the WKB expansion of their quantum free energies by using the direct integration of the anomaly equations. We reproduce in this way all known results about the quantum periods of these models, which we express in terms of modular forms on the WKB curve. As an application of our results, we study the large order behavior of the WKB expansion in the case of the double well, which displays the double factorial growth typical of string theory.

  16. Survey of Anomaly Detection Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ng, B


    This survey defines the problem of anomaly detection and provides an overview of existing methods. The methods are categorized into two general classes: generative and discriminative. A generative approach involves building a model that represents the joint distribution of the input features and the output labels of system behavior (e.g., normal or anomalous) then applies the model to formulate a decision rule for detecting anomalies. On the other hand, a discriminative approach aims directly to find the decision rule, with the smallest error rate, that distinguishes between normal and anomalous behavior. For each approach, we will give an overview of popular techniques and provide references to state-of-the-art applications.

  17. Effect of Vegetation on the Late Miocene Ocean Circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerrit Lohmann


    Full Text Available We examine the role of the vegetation cover and the associated hydrological cycle on the deep ocean circulation during the Late Miocene (~10 million years ago. In our simulations, an open Central American gateway and exchange with fresh Pacific waters leads to a weak and shallow thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean which is consistent with most other modeling studies for this time period. Here, we estimate the effect of a changed vegetation cover on the ocean general circulation using atmospheric circulation model simulations for the late Miocene climate with 353 ppmv CO2 level. The Late Miocene land surface cover reduces the albedo, the net evaporation in the North Atlantic catchment is affected and the North Atlantic water becomes more saline leading to a more vigorous North Atlantic Deep Water circulation. These effects reveal potentially important feedbacks between the ocean circulation, the hydrological cycle and the land surface cover for Cenozoic climate evolution.

  18. The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP (United States)

    Capa Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita


    companies) sectors, to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Aasa, A., Jaagus, J., Ahas, R. and Sepp, M. 2004. The influence of atmospheric circulation on plant phenological phases in central and eastern Europe. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1551-1564. Gabaldón, C. et al. 2013. Evaluation of local strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century. European Geosciences Union - General Assembly2013 Vol. 15 (Vienna - Austria, 2013). Garnett, E. R. and Khandekar, M. L. 1992. The impact of large-scale atmospheric circulations and anomalies on Indian monsoon droughts and floods and on world grain yields-a statistical analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 61, 113-128. Jones, C. and Kiniry, J. 1986. CERES-Maize: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and Development. Texas A&M University Press, 194. Rozas, V. and Garcia-Gonzalez, I. 2012. N