WorldWideScience

Sample records for atmospheres ii predictions

  1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis is a follow-on project to the "50-year" (1948-present) NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project....

  2. Atmospheric fluoride pollution. Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, T; Yamazaki, Y

    1969-01-01

    In East Osaka, agricultural crops either died or showed poor growth in the neighborhood of a factory producing white cosmetic bottles. Since fluorite was used as a material and there was no damage before the establishment of the factory, it was suspected that fluorine compounds were causing the damage. Quantitative analysis was performed on the agricultural crops and the exhaust gas as well as the dust particles in order to determine the fluorine content. Gas samplers were used to collect the dusts from the surrounding atmosphere. The fluorine content of dust near the factory was about 93 mg per cubic meter per day, and in some parts, as high as 1.54 mq per cubic meter per day. Relatively larger quantities of fluorine were measured at the southwestern and southeastern area of the factory, corresponding to the general wind pattern. Rice and soy beans from the neighborhood of the factory showed concentrations of fluorine and, especially in the leaves of the damaged crops, the concentrations were several hundred times higher than those of the undamaged leaves.

  3. Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yagang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

  4. MHC Class II epitope predictive algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lund, Ole; Buus, S

    2010-01-01

    Major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) molecules sample peptides from the extracellular space, allowing the immune system to detect the presence of foreign microbes from this compartment. To be able to predict the immune response to given pathogens, a number of methods have been...... developed to predict peptide-MHC binding. However, few methods other than the pioneering TEPITOPE/ProPred method have been developed for MHC-II. Despite recent progress in method development, the predictive performance for MHC-II remains significantly lower than what can be obtained for MHC-I. One reason...

  5. ISLSCP II Globalview: Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GlobalView Carbon Dioxide (CO2) data product contains synchronized and smoothed time series of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at selected sites that were created...

  6. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hodur, Richard M; Hong, Xiaodong; Doyle, James D; Pullen, Julie; Cummings, James; Martin, Paul; Rennick, Mary Alice

    2002-01-01

    ... of the Couple Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). The goal of this modeling project is to gain predictive skill in simulating the ocean and atmosphere at high resolution on time-scales of hours to several days...

  7. Linear zonal atmospheric prediction for adaptive optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Patrick C.; Rhoadarmer, Troy A.; Coy, Hanna A.; Angel, J. Roger P.; Lloyd-Hart, Michael

    2000-07-01

    We compare linear zonal predictors of atmospheric turbulence for adaptive optics. Zonal prediction has the possible advantage of being able to interpret and utilize wind-velocity information from the wavefront sensor better than modal prediction. For simulated open-loop atmospheric data for a 2- meter 16-subaperture AO telescope with 5 millisecond prediction and a lookback of 4 slope-vectors, we find that Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule training of linear nets and Back- Propagation training of non-linear multilayer neural networks is quite slow, getting stuck on plateaus or in local minima. Recursive Least Squares training of linear predictors is two orders of magnitude faster and it also converges to the solution with global minimum error. We have successfully implemented Amari's Adaptive Natural Gradient Learning (ANGL) technique for a linear zonal predictor, which premultiplies the Delta-Rule gradients with a matrix that orthogonalizes the parameter space and speeds up the training by two orders of magnitude, like the Recursive Least Squares predictor. This shows that the simple Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule's slow convergence is not a fluke. In the case of bright guidestars, the ANGL, RLS, and standard matrix-inversion least-squares (MILS) algorithms all converge to the same global minimum linear total phase error (approximately 0.18 rad2), which is only approximately 5% higher than the spatial phase error (approximately 0.17 rad2), and is approximately 33% lower than the total 'naive' phase error without prediction (approximately 0.27 rad2). ANGL can, in principle, also be extended to make non-linear neural network training feasible for these large networks, with the potential to lower the predictor error below the linear predictor error. We will soon scale our linear work to the approximately 108-subaperture MMT AO system, both with simulations and real wavefront sensor data from prime focus.

  8. Structure of cometary atmospheres. II. Ion distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, M [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Inst. of Space and Aeronautical Science

    1976-04-01

    The distributions of various kinds of molecular ions in the atmospheres of new and old comets made up from dirty ice of the second kind (H/sub 2/O ice and hydrate clathrates of CO and N/sub 2/) have been computed at various heliocentric distances, by taking into account photoionization, ion-molecular reactions, electron-ion recombinations, and some transport effects. The results have been compared with observations and other computations. It is argued that dirty ice of the second kind model will impose a restriction on the theory of the origin of the solar system.

  9. Fourier transform wavefront control with adaptive prediction of the atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poyneer, Lisa A; Macintosh, Bruce A; Véran, Jean-Pierre

    2007-09-01

    Predictive Fourier control is a temporal power spectral density-based adaptive method for adaptive optics that predicts the atmosphere under the assumption of frozen flow. The predictive controller is based on Kalman filtering and a Fourier decomposition of atmospheric turbulence using the Fourier transform reconstructor. It provides a stable way to compensate for arbitrary numbers of atmospheric layers. For each Fourier mode, efficient and accurate algorithms estimate the necessary atmospheric parameters from closed-loop telemetry and determine the predictive filter, adjusting as conditions change. This prediction improves atmospheric rejection, leading to significant improvements in system performance. For a 48x48 actuator system operating at 2 kHz, five-layer prediction for all modes is achievable in under 2x10(9) floating-point operations/s.

  10. Predicting the Atmospheric Composition of Extrasolar Giant Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, A. G.; Moses, J. I.; Friedson, A. J.; Fegley, B., Jr.; Marley, M. S.; Lodders, K.

    2004-01-01

    To date, approximately 120 planet-sized objects have been discovered around other stars, mostly through the radial-velocity technique. This technique can provide information about a planet s minimum mass and its orbital period and distance; however, few other planetary data can be obtained at this point in time unless we are fortunate enough to find an extrasolar giant planet that transits its parent star (i.e., the orbit is edge-on as seen from Earth). In that situation, many physical properties of the planet and its parent star can be determined, including some compositional information. Our prospects of directly obtaining spectra from extrasolar planets may improve in the near future, through missions like NASA's Terrestrial Planet Finder. Most of the extrasolar giant planets (EGPs) discovered so far have masses equal to or greater than Jupiter's mass, and roughly 16% have orbital radii less than 0.1 AU - extremely close to the parent star by our own Solar-System standards (note that Mercury is located at a mean distance of 0.39 AU and Jupiter at 5.2 AU from the Sun). Although all EGPs are expected to have hydrogen-dominated atmospheres similar to Jupiter, the orbital distance can strongly affect the planet's temperature, physical, chemical, and spectral properties, and the abundance of minor, detectable atmospheric constituents. Thermochemical equilibrium models can provide good zero-order predictions for the atmospheric composition of EGPs. However, both the composition and spectral properties will depend in large part on disequilibrium processes like photochemistry, chemical kinetics, atmospheric transport, and haze formation. We have developed a photochemical kinetics, radiative transfer, and 1-D vertical transport model to study the atmospheric composition of EGPs. The chemical reaction list contains H-, C-, O-, and N-bearing species and is designed to be valid for atmospheric temperatures ranging from 100-3000 K and pressures up to 50 bar. Here we examine

  11. Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J. D.

    1991-01-01

    Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

  12. Pretest Predictions for Phase II Ventilation Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiming Sun

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to predict the temperatures of the ventilating air, waste package surface, and concrete pipe walls that will be developed during the Phase II ventilation tests involving various test conditions. The results will be used as inputs to validating numerical approach for modeling continuous ventilation, and be used to support the repository subsurface design. The scope of the calculation is to identify the physical mechanisms and parameters related to thermal response in the Phase II ventilation tests, and describe numerical methods that are used to calculate the effects of continuous ventilation. The calculation is limited to thermal effect only. This engineering work activity is conducted in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for: Subsurface Performance Testing for License Application (LA) for Fiscal Year 2001'' (CRWMS M and O 2000d). This technical work plan (TWP) includes an AP-2.21Q, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', activity evaluation (CRWMS M and O 2000d, Addendum A) that has determined this activity is subject to the YMP quality assurance (QA) program. The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12Q procedure, ''Calculations''. Additional background information regarding this activity is contained in the ''Development Plan for Ventilation Pretest Predictive Calculation'' (DP) (CRWMS M and O 2000a)

  13. Evolutionary Computation Techniques for Predicting Atmospheric Corrosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amine Marref

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Corrosion occurs in many engineering structures such as bridges, pipelines, and refineries and leads to the destruction of materials in a gradual manner and thus shortening their lifespan. It is therefore crucial to assess the structural integrity of engineering structures which are approaching or exceeding their designed lifespan in order to ensure their correct functioning, for example, carrying ability and safety. An understanding of corrosion and an ability to predict corrosion rate of a material in a particular environment plays a vital role in evaluating the residual life of the material. In this paper we investigate the use of genetic programming and genetic algorithms in the derivation of corrosion-rate expressions for steel and zinc. Genetic programming is used to automatically evolve corrosion-rate expressions while a genetic algorithm is used to evolve the parameters of an already engineered corrosion-rate expression. We show that both evolutionary techniques yield corrosion-rate expressions that have good accuracy.

  14. Nudging atmosphere and ocean reanalyses for seasonal climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Robert; Baehr, Johanna; Kornblueh, Luis; Müller, Wolfgang Alexander; Haak, Helmuth; Botzet, Michael; Matei, Daniela

    2010-05-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts based on state-of-the-art climate models have been developed recently. Here, we critically discuss the obstacles encountered in the setup of the ECHAM6/MPIOM global coupled climate model to perform climate predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. We particularly focus on the initialization procedure, especially on the implementation of the nudging scheme, in which different reanalysis products are used in the atmosphere (e.g.ERA40), and the ocean (e.g., GECCO). Nudging in the atmosphere appears to be sensitive to the following choices: limiting the spectral range of nudging, whether or not temperature is nudged, the strength of the nudging coefficient for surface pressure, and the height at which the planetary boundary layer is excluded from nudging. We find that including nudging in both the atmosphere and the ocean gives improved results over nudging only the ocean or the atmosphere. For the implementation of the nudging in the atmosphere, we find the most significant improvements in the solution when either the planetary boundary layer is excluded, or if nudging of temperature is omitted. There are significant improvements in the solution when resolution is increased in both the atmosphere and in the ocean. Our tests form the basis for the prediction system introduced in the abstract of Müller et al., where hindcasts are analysed as well.

  15. Potential biosignatures in super-Earth atmospheres II. Photochemical responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenfell, J L; Gebauer, S; Godolt, M; Palczynski, K; Rauer, H; Stock, J; von Paris, P; Lehmann, R; Selsis, F

    2013-05-01

    Spectral characterization of super-Earth atmospheres for planets orbiting in the habitable zone of M dwarf stars is a key focus in exoplanet science. A central challenge is to understand and predict the expected spectral signals of atmospheric biosignatures (species associated with life). Our work applies a global-mean radiative-convective-photochemical column model assuming a planet with an Earth-like biomass and planetary development. We investigated planets with gravities of 1g and 3g and a surface pressure of 1 bar around central stars with spectral classes from M0 to M7. The spectral signals of the calculated planetary scenarios have been presented by in an earlier work by Rauer and colleagues. The main motivation of the present work is to perform a deeper analysis of the chemical processes in the planetary atmospheres. We apply a diagnostic tool, the Pathway Analysis Program, to shed light on the photochemical pathways that form and destroy biosignature species. Ozone is a potential biosignature for complex life. An important result of our analysis is a shift in the ozone photochemistry from mainly Chapman production (which dominates in Earth's stratosphere) to smog-dominated ozone production for planets in the habitable zone of cooler (M5-M7)-class dwarf stars. This result is associated with a lower energy flux in the UVB wavelength range from the central star, hence slower planetary atmospheric photolysis of molecular oxygen, which slows the Chapman ozone production. This is important for future atmospheric characterization missions because it provides an indication of different chemical environments that can lead to very different responses of ozone, for example, cosmic rays. Nitrous oxide, a biosignature for simple bacterial life, is favored for low stratospheric UV conditions, that is, on planets orbiting cooler stars. Transport of this species from its surface source to the stratosphere where it is destroyed can also be a key process. Comparing 1g with

  16. Predicting Top-of-Atmosphere Thermal Radiance Using MERRA-2 Atmospheric Data with Deep Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tania Kleynhans

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Image data from space-borne thermal infrared (IR sensors are used for a variety of applications, however they are often limited by their temporal resolution (i.e., repeat coverage. To potentially increase the temporal availability of thermal image data, a study was performed to determine the extent to which thermal image data can be simulated from available atmospheric and surface data. The work conducted here explored the use of Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2 developed by The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA to predict top-of-atmosphere (TOA thermal IR radiance globally at time scales finer than available satellite data. For this case study, TOA radiance data was derived for band 31 (10.97 μ m of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor. Two approaches have been followed, namely an atmospheric radiative transfer forward modeling approach and a supervised learning approach. The first approach uses forward modeling to predict TOA radiance from the available surface and atmospheric data. The second approach applied four different supervised learning algorithms to the atmospheric data. The algorithms included a linear least squares regression model, a non-linear support vector regression (SVR model, a multi-layer perceptron (MLP, and a convolutional neural network (CNN. This research found that the multi-layer perceptron model produced the lowest overall error rates with an root mean square error (RMSE of 1.36 W/m 2 ·sr· μ m when compared to actual Terra/MODIS band 31 image data. These studies found that for radiances above 6 W/m 2 ·sr· μ m, the forward modeling approach could predict TOA radiance to within 12 percent, and the best supervised learning approach can predict TOA to within 11 percent.

  17. South African seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is presented that coupled ocean-atmosphere models can already outscore computationally less expensive atmospheric models. However, if the atmospheric models are forced with highly skillful SST predictions, they may still be a very strong...

  18. Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

    2015-01-01

    We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Structural properties of MHC class II ligands, implications for the prediction of MHC class II epitopes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasper Winther Jørgensen

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Major Histocompatibility class II (MHC-II molecules sample peptides from the extracellular space allowing the immune system to detect the presence of foreign microbes from this compartment. Prediction of MHC class II ligands is complicated by the open binding cleft of the MHC class II molecule, allowing binding of peptides extending out of the binding groove. Furthermore, only a few HLA-DR alleles have been characterized with a sufficient number of peptides (100-200 peptides per allele to derive accurate description of their binding motif. Little work has been performed characterizing structural properties of MHC class II ligands. Here, we perform one such large-scale analysis. A large set of SYFPEITHI MHC class II ligands covering more than 20 different HLA-DR molecules was analyzed in terms of their secondary structure and surface exposure characteristics in the context of the native structure of the corresponding source protein. We demonstrated that MHC class II ligands are significantly more exposed and have significantly more coil content than other peptides in the same protein with similar predicted binding affinity. We next exploited this observation to derive an improved prediction method for MHC class II ligands by integrating prediction of MHC- peptide binding with prediction of surface exposure and protein secondary structure. This combined prediction method was shown to significantly outperform the state-of-the-art MHC class II peptide binding prediction method when used to identify MHC class II ligands. We also tried to integrate N- and O-glycosylation in our prediction methods but this additional information was found not to improve prediction performance. In summary, these findings strongly suggest that local structural properties influence antigen processing and/or the accessibility of peptides to the MHC class II molecule.

  20. Calculated Resonance Line Profiles of [Mg II], [C II], and [Si IV] in the Solar Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avrett, E.; Landi, E.; McKillop, S.

    2013-12-01

    NASA's Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph space mission, launched 2013 June 27, is intended to study the structure of the solar chromosphere and the transition region between the chromosphere and corona. The spectral lines to be observed include the Mg II k line at 2796.5 Å, the C II 1334.5 Å line, and the Si IV line at 1393.8 Å, which are formed in the middle chromosphere, the upper chromosphere, and the lower transition region, respectively. Here we calculate the profiles of these lines from four models of the solar atmosphere, intended to represent the faint and mean internetwork, a network lane, and bright network. We show how the profiles change from the center of the solar disk toward the limb of the Sun and in response to outflows and inflows. These results are intended to cover the range of expected quiet-Sun observations and assist in their interpretation. We expect that the observations will lead to improvements in the models, which can then be used to estimate the required non-radiative heating in the different regions.

  1. Calculated resonance line profiles of [Mg II], [C II], and [Si IV] in the solar atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avrett, E.; McKillop, S.; Landi, E.

    2013-01-01

    NASA's Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph space mission, launched 2013 June 27, is intended to study the structure of the solar chromosphere and the transition region between the chromosphere and corona. The spectral lines to be observed include the Mg II k line at 2796.5 Å, the C II 1334.5 Å line, and the Si IV line at 1393.8 Å, which are formed in the middle chromosphere, the upper chromosphere, and the lower transition region, respectively. Here we calculate the profiles of these lines from four models of the solar atmosphere, intended to represent the faint and mean internetwork, a network lane, and bright network. We show how the profiles change from the center of the solar disk toward the limb of the Sun and in response to outflows and inflows. These results are intended to cover the range of expected quiet-Sun observations and assist in their interpretation. We expect that the observations will lead to improvements in the models, which can then be used to estimate the required non-radiative heating in the different regions.

  2. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  3. ISLSCP II GlobalView: Atmospheric Methane Concentrations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The GlobalView Methane (CH4) data product contains synchronized and smoothed time series of atmospheric CH4 concentrations at selected sites that were...

  4. ISLSCP II GlobalView: Atmospheric Methane Concentrations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GlobalView Methane (CH4) data product contains synchronized and smoothed time series of atmospheric CH4 concentrations at selected sites that were created using...

  5. ISLSCP II Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Consumption by Continental Erosion

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The Continental Atmospheric CO2 Consumption data set represents gridded estimates for the riverine export of carbon and of sediments based on empirical...

  6. Compressor Part II: Volute Flow Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Tai Lee

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical method that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations is used to study an inefficient component of a shipboard air-conditioning HCFC-124 compressor system. This high-loss component of the centrifugal compressor was identified as the volute through a series of measurements given in Part I of the paper. The predictions were made using three grid topologies. The first grid closes the connection between the cutwater and the discharge diffuser. The other two grids connect the cutwater area with the discharge diffuser. Experiments were performed to simulate both the cutwater conditions used in the predictions. Surface pressures along the outer wall and near the inlet of the volute were surveyed for comparisons with the predictions. Good agreements between the predicted results and the measurements validate the calculations. Total pressure distributions and flow stream traces from the prediction results support the loss distribution through the volute. A modified volute configuration is examined numerically for further loss comparison.

  7. NOAA's National Air Quality Prediction and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for NGGPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajner, I.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Wilczak, J. M.; Upadhayay, S.; daSilva, A.; Lu, C. H.; Grell, G. A.; Pierce, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA's operational air quality predictions of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and wildfire smoke over the United States and airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states are distributed at http://airquality.weather.gov. The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) providing these predictions was updated in June 2017. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are now produced using the system linking the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version 5.0.2 with meteorological inputs from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) version 4. Predictions of PM2.5 include intermittent dust emissions and wildfire emissions from an updated version of BlueSky system. For the latter, the CMAQ system is initialized by rerunning it over the previous 24 hours to include wildfire emissions at the time when they were observed from the satellites. Post processing to reduce the bias in PM2.5 prediction was updated using the Kalman filter analog (KFAN) technique. Dust related aerosol species at the CMAQ domain lateral boundaries now come from the NEMS Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) v2 predictions. Further development of NAQFC includes testing of CMAQ predictions to 72 hours, Canadian fire emissions data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the KFAN technique to reduce bias in ozone predictions. NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Predictions System (NGGPS) with an aerosol and gaseous atmospheric composition component to improve and integrate aerosol and ozone predictions and evaluate their impacts on physics, data assimilation and weather prediction. Efforts are underway to improve cloud microphysics, investigate aerosol effects and include representations of atmospheric composition of varying complexity into NGGPS: from the operational ozone parameterization, GOCART aerosols, with simplified ozone chemistry, to CMAQ chemistry with aerosol modules. We will present progress on community building, planning and development of NGGPS.

  8. Composition of atmospheric precipitation. II. Sulfur, chloride, iodine compounds. Bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, E

    1952-01-01

    Atmospheric precipitation invariably contains insoluble substances of different origin. A large scale study was conducted to determine the content of sulfur, chloride, and iodine in rainwater from various places around the world. The origin of these elements in rainwater is discussed. Several meteorological factors influence the Cl-content of rainwater. They include: rainfall, wind direction and wind strength, altitude, and seasonal variation.

  9. A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.

  10. Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) provides numerical guidance and products in support of a wide range of Navy oceanographic and...

  11. Advances in criticality predictions for EBR-II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaefer, R.W.; Imel, G.R.

    1994-01-01

    Improvements to startup criticality predictions for the EBR-II reactor have been made. More exact calculational models, methods and data are now used, and better procedures for obtaining experimental data that enter into the prediction are in place. Accuracy improved by more than a factor of two and the largest ECP error observed since the changes is only 18 cents. An experimental method using subcritical counts is also being implemented

  12. A Modified APACHE II Score for Predicting Mortality of Variceal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: Modified APACHE II score is effective in predicting outcome of patients with variceal bleeding. Score of L 15 points and long ICU stay are associated with high mortality. Keywords: liver cirrhosis, periportal fibrosis, portal hypertension, schistosomiasis udan Journal of Medical Sciences Vol. 2 (2) 2007: pp. 105- ...

  13. Development of scheme for predicting atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides during nuclear emergency by using atmospheric dynamic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi (Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokyo (Japan))

    1999-07-01

    The meteorological forecast models are critically important for the accuracy of predicting the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides discharged into atmosphere during nuclear emergencies. Thus, this paper describes a new scheme for predicting environmental impacts due to accidental release of radionuclides by using an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. The advantages of introducing PHYSIC are, (1) three-dimensional local meteorological forecasts can be conducted, (2) synoptic meteorological changes can be considered by inputting grid data of synoptic forecasts from Japan Meteorological Agency to PHYSIC as initial and boundary conditions, (3) forecasts can be improved by nudging method using local meteorological observations, and (4) atmospheric dispersion model can consider the variation of the mixed layer. (author)

  14. Development of scheme for predicting atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides during nuclear emergency by using atmospheric dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Chino, Masamichi; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1999-01-01

    The meteorological forecast models are critically important for the accuracy of predicting the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides discharged into atmosphere during nuclear emergencies. Thus, this paper describes a new scheme for predicting environmental impacts due to accidental release of radionuclides by using an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. The advantages of introducing PHYSIC are, (1) three-dimensional local meteorological forecasts can be conducted, (2) synoptic meteorological changes can be considered by inputting grid data of synoptic forecasts from Japan Meteorological Agency to PHYSIC as initial and boundary conditions, (3) forecasts can be improved by nudging method using local meteorological observations, and (4) atmospheric dispersion model can consider the variation of the mixed layer. (author)

  15. Atmospheric Rivers in Europe: impacts, predictability, and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Tome, R.; Sousa, P. M.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Lavers, D.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years a strong relationship has been found between Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extreme precipitation and floods across western Europe, with some regions having 8 of their top 10 annual maxima precipitation events related to ARs. In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, the association between ARs and extreme precipitation days in the western river basins is noteworthy, while for the eastern and southern basins the impact of ARs is reduced. An automated ARs detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean Basin, allowing the identification of major ARs affecting western European coasts in the present climate and under different climate change scenarios. We have used both reanalyzes and six General Circulation models under three climate scenarios (the control simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios). The western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula, France, UK, Southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands, and Northern Scandinavia. It was found that there is an increase in the vertically integrated horizontal water transport which led to an increase in the AR frequency, a result more visible in the high emission scenarios (RCP8.5) for the 2074-2099 period. Since ARs are associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their predictability. This assessment was performed with the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 10 days for winters 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2015/16 for events that made landfall in the Iberian Peninsula. We show the model's potential added value to detect upcoming ARs events, which is particularly useful to predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT

  16. Annual and long-term prediction of the atmospheric corrosion of metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morcillo, M.

    1998-01-01

    The atmospheric corrosion of metals is known to be a discontinuous electrochemical process which takes place only when the metallic surface is wet or moistened by different meteorological phenomena (rain, humidity condensation, fog, etc.) The magnitude of atmospheric corrosion would be relatively low if it were not for the presence of certain pollutants in the atmosphere, mainly sulphur dioxide (anthropogenic pollutant) and marine chlorides (natural pollutant). The literature contains different models for predicting the atmospheric metals over short periods (generally one year) and long periods (15, 20 or more years) of atmospheric exposure. In addition to the different meteorological factors (volume of precipitation, days of rain, relative humidity (RH), T, etc.), atmospheric SO 2 deposition rate and atmospheric salinity (Cl - ) appear as independent variables in all of these models. (Author)

  17. THE FORMATION OF IRIS DIAGNOSTICS. II. THE FORMATION OF THE Mg II h and k LINES IN THE SOLAR ATMOSPHERE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leenaarts, J.; Pereira, T. M. D.; Carlsson, M.; De Pontieu, B. [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029 Blindern, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Uitenbroek, H., E-mail: jorritl@astro.uio.no, E-mail: tiago.pereira@astro.uio.no, E-mail: mats.carlsson@astro.uio.no, E-mail: bdp@lmsal.com, E-mail: huitenbroek@nso.edu [NSO/Sacramento Peak P.O. Box 62 Sunspot, NM 88349-0062 (United States)

    2013-08-01

    NASA's Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) small explorer mission will study how the solar atmosphere is energized. IRIS contains an imaging spectrograph that covers the Mg II h and k lines as well as a slit-jaw imager centered at Mg II k. Understanding the observations requires forward modeling of Mg II h and k line formation from three-dimensional (3D) radiation-magnetohydrodynamic (RMHD) models. This paper is the second in a series where we undertake this modeling. We compute the vertically emergent h and k intensity from a snapshot of a dynamic 3D RMHD model of the solar atmosphere, and investigate which diagnostic information about the atmosphere is contained in the synthetic line profiles. We find that the Doppler shift of the central line depression correlates strongly with the vertical velocity at optical depth unity, which is typically located less than 200 km below the transition region (TR). By combining the Doppler shifts of the h and k lines we can retrieve the sign of the velocity gradient just below the TR. The intensity in the central line depression is anti-correlated with the formation height, especially in subfields of a few square Mm. This intensity could thus be used to measure the spatial variation of the height of the TR. The intensity in the line-core emission peaks correlates with the temperature at its formation height, especially for strong emission peaks. The peaks can thus be exploited as a temperature diagnostic. The wavelength difference between the blue and red peaks provides a diagnostic of the velocity gradients in the upper chromosphere. The intensity ratio of the blue and red peaks correlates strongly with the average velocity in the upper chromosphere. We conclude that the Mg II h and k lines are excellent probes of the very upper chromosphere just below the TR, a height regime that is impossible to probe with other spectral lines. They also provide decent temperature and velocity diagnostics of the middle

  18. NKS-B NordRisk II: Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauritzen, B.

    2011-05-01

    The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposition scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range dispersion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple parameterization of the global dispersion and deposition patterns. The atlas and the underlying data are made available in a format compatible with the ARGOS decision support system, and have been implemented in ARGOS. (Author)

  19. NKS-B NordRisk II: Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lauritzen, B. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Radiation Research Div., Roskilde (Denmark))

    2011-05-15

    The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposition scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range dispersion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple parameterization of the global dispersion and deposition patterns. The atlas and the underlying data are made available in a format compatible with the ARGOS decision support system, and have been implemented in ARGOS. (Author)

  20. Theoretical predictions of arsenic and selenium species under atmospheric conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monahan-Pendergast, M.T.; Przybylek, M.; Lindblad, M.; Wilcox, J. [Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    2008-03-15

    Thermochemical properties of arsenic and selenium species thought to be released into the atmosphere during the coal combustion were examined using ab initio methods. At various levels of theory, calculated geometries and vibrational frequencies of the species were compared with experimental data, where available. Through a comparison of equilibrium constants for a series of gaseous arsenic and selenium oxidation reactions involving OH and HO{sub 2}, five thermodynamically favored reactions were found. In addition, it was determined that all favored reactions were more likely to go to completion tinder tropospheric, rather than stratospheric, conditions.

  1. Predictive value of SAPS II and APACHE II scoring systems for patient outcome in a medical intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amina Godinjak

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim is to determine SAPS II and APACHE II scores in medical intensive care unit (MICU patients, to compare them for prediction of patient outcome, and to compare with actual hospital mortality rates for different subgroups of patients. Methods. One hundred and seventy-four patients were included in this analysis over a oneyear period in the MICU, Clinical Center, University of Sarajevo. The following patient data were obtained: demographics, admission diagnosis, SAPS II, APACHE II scores and final outcome. Results. Out of 174 patients, 70 patients (40.2% died. Mean SAPS II and APACHE II scores in all patients were 48.4±17.0 and 21.6±10.3 respectively, and they were significantly different between survivors and non-survivors. SAPS II >50.5 and APACHE II >27.5 can predict the risk of mortality in these patients. There was no statistically significant difference in the clinical values of SAPS II vs APACHE II (p=0.501. A statistically significant positive correlation was established between the values of SAPS II and APACHE II (r=0.708; p=0.001. Patients with an admission diagnosis of sepsis/septic shock had the highest values of both SAPS II and APACHE II scores, and also the highest hospital mortality rate of 55.1%. Conclusion. Both APACHE II and SAPS II had an excellent ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors. There was no significant difference in the clinical values of SAPS II and APACHE II. A positive correlation was established between them. Sepsis/septic shock patients had the highest predicted and observed hospital mortality rate.

  2. Isotope aided studies of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-01-01

    The substantial increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and their role in global warming have become major concerns of world governments. Application of isotope techniques to label sources and sinks of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases has emerged as a potentially powerful method for reducing uncertainties in the global CO{sub 2} budgets and for tracing pathways and interaction of terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric pools of carbon. As with CO{sub 2} concentration measurements, meaningful integration of isotopes in global models requires careful attention to quality assurance, quality control and inter-comparability of measurements made by a number of networks and laboratories. To support improvements in isotope measurement capabilities, the IAEA began implementing Co-ordinated Research Projects (CRPs) in 1992. The first project, entitled Isotope Variations of Carbon Dioxide and other Trace Gases in the Atmosphere, was implemented from 1992 to 1994. A significant contribution was made towards a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and especially of the sources and sinks of carbon with data on the {sup 14}C and {sup 13}C content of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, pointing to a better understanding of the problem of the 'missing sink' in the global carbon cycle. Important methodological developments in the field of high precision stable isotope mass spectrometry and improved data acquisition procedures emerged from work carried out within the framework of this programme. The development of pressurized gas standards and planning for an associated interlaboratory calibration were initiated. Due to the good progress and long standing nature of the required work a second CRP was initiated and implemented from 1996 to 1999. It was entitled Isotope aided Studies of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Trace Gases - Phase II, to document the close relationship of both programmes. This publication provides an overview of the scientific outcomes of the

  3. Isotope aided studies of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Phase II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The substantial increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and their role in global warming have become major concerns of world governments. Application of isotope techniques to label sources and sinks of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases has emerged as a potentially powerful method for reducing uncertainties in the global CO 2 budgets and for tracing pathways and interaction of terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric pools of carbon. As with CO 2 concentration measurements, meaningful integration of isotopes in global models requires careful attention to quality assurance, quality control and inter-comparability of measurements made by a number of networks and laboratories. To support improvements in isotope measurement capabilities, the IAEA began implementing Co-ordinated Research Projects (CRPs) in 1992. The first project, entitled Isotope Variations of Carbon Dioxide and other Trace Gases in the Atmosphere, was implemented from 1992 to 1994. A significant contribution was made towards a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and especially of the sources and sinks of carbon with data on the 14 C and 13 C content of atmospheric CO 2 , pointing to a better understanding of the problem of the 'missing sink' in the global carbon cycle. Important methodological developments in the field of high precision stable isotope mass spectrometry and improved data acquisition procedures emerged from work carried out within the framework of this programme. The development of pressurized gas standards and planning for an associated interlaboratory calibration were initiated. Due to the good progress and long standing nature of the required work a second CRP was initiated and implemented from 1996 to 1999. It was entitled Isotope aided Studies of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Trace Gases - Phase II, to document the close relationship of both programmes. This publication provides an overview of the scientific outcomes of the studies conducted within Phase

  4. Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available re-forecasts) made at lead-times which are the result of forcing the CCAM with predicted SST (while the sea-ice remains specified as climatological values) in order to determine how the model can be expected to perform under real-time operational...

  5. Wind tunnel testing to predict control room atmospheric dispersion factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmquist, L.J.; Harden, P.A.; Muraida, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    Recent concerns at Palisades about control room habitability in the event of a loss-of-coolant accident have led to an extensive effort to increase control room habitability margin. The heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) system servicing the control room has the potential for unfiltered in-leakage through its normal outside air intake louvered isolation dampers during emergency mode. The current limiting control room habitability analysis allows for 1.2 x 10 -2 m 3 /s (25 ft 3 /min) unfiltered in-leakage into the control room envelope. This leakage value was not thought to be achievable with the existing as-built configuration. Repairing the system was considered as a potential solution; however, this would be costly and could negatively affect plant operation. In addition, the system would still be required to meet the low specified unfiltered in-leakage. A second approach to this problem was to determine the atmospheric dispersion factors (x/Q's) through a wind tunnel test using a scale model of Palisades. The results of the wind tunnel testing could yield more realistic x/Q's for control room habitability than previously employed methods. Palisades selected the wind tunnel study option based on its ease of implementation, realistic results, and low cost. More importantly, the results of the study could increase the allowable unfiltered in-leakage

  6. Predicted net efflux of radiocarbon from the ocean and increase in atmospheric radiocarbon content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Ken; Rau, Greg H.; Duffy, Philip B.

    Prior to changes introduced by man, production of radiocarbon (14C) in the stratosphere nearly balanced the flux of 14C from the atmosphere to the ocean and land biosphere, which in turn nearly balanced radioactive decay in these 14C reservoirs. This balance has been altered by land-use changes, fossil-fuel burning, and atmospheric nuclear detonations. Here, we use a model of the global carbon cycle to quantify these radiocarbon fluxes and make predictions about their magnitude in the future. Atmospheric nuclear detonations increased atmospheric 14C content by about 80% by the mid-1960's. Since that time, the 14C content of the atmosphere has been diminishing as this bomb radiocarbon has been entering the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. However, we predict that atmospheric 14C content will reach a minimum and start to increase within the next few years if fossil-fuel burning continues according to a “business-as-usual” scenario, even though fossil fuels are devoid of 14C. This will happen because fossil-fuel carbon diminishes the net flux of 14C from the atmosphere to the oceans and land biosphere, forcing 14C to accumulate in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the net flux of both bomb and natural 14C into the ocean are predicted to continue to slow and then, in the middle of the next century, to reverse, so that there will be a net flux of 14C from the ocean to the atmosphere. The predicted reversal of net 14C fluxes into the ocean is a further example of human impacts on the global carbon cycle.

  7. Predicting mesh density for adaptive modelling of the global atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Hilary

    2009-11-28

    The shallow water equations are solved using a mesh of polygons on the sphere, which adapts infrequently to the predicted future solution. Infrequent mesh adaptation reduces the cost of adaptation and load-balancing and will thus allow for more accurate mapping on adaptation. We simulate the growth of a barotropically unstable jet adapting the mesh every 12 h. Using an adaptation criterion based largely on the gradient of the vorticity leads to a mesh with around 20 per cent of the cells of a uniform mesh that gives equivalent results. This is a similar proportion to previous studies of the same test case with mesh adaptation every 1-20 min. The prediction of the mesh density involves solving the shallow water equations on a coarse mesh in advance of the locally refined mesh in order to estimate where features requiring higher resolution will grow, decay or move to. The adaptation criterion consists of two parts: that resolved on the coarse mesh, and that which is not resolved and so is passively advected on the coarse mesh. This combination leads to a balance between resolving features controlled by the large-scale dynamics and maintaining fine-scale features.

  8. Nonlinear Aerodynamic and Nonlinear Structures Interations (NANSI) Methodology for Ballute/Inflatable Aeroelasticity in Hypersonic Atmospheric Entry, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA proposes a phase II effort to fully develop a comprehensive methodology for aeroelastic predictions of the nonlinear aerodynamic/aerothermodynamic - structure...

  9. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Processes Affecting Predictability in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Subramanian, A. C.; Seo, H.; Eliashiv, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Predictions of the ocean and atmosphere are often sensitive to coupling at the air-sea interface in ways that depend on the temporal and spatial scales of the target fields. We will discuss several aspects of these types of coupled interactions including oceanic and atmospheric forecast applications. For oceanic mesoscale eddies, the coupling can influence the energetics of the oceanic flow itself. For Madden-Julian Oscillation onset, the coupling timestep should resolve the diurnal cycle to properly raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux prior to deep convection. For Atmospheric River events, the evolving SST field can alter the trajectory and intensity of precipitation anomalies along the California coast. Improvements in predictions will also rely on identifying and alleviating sources of biases in the climate states of the coupled system. Surprisingly, forecast skill can also be improved by enhancing stochastic variability in the atmospheric component of coupled models as found in a multiscale ensemble modeling approach.

  10. NOAA's National Air Quality Predictions and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for the Next Generation Global Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajner, I.; Hou, Y. T.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Tong, D.; Pan, L.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Upadhayay, S.

    2016-12-01

    NOAA provides operational air quality predictions using the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC): ozone and wildfire smoke for the United States and airborne dust for the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. NOAA's predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) became publicly available in February 2016. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are produced using a system that operationally links the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the North American mesoscale forecast Model (NAM). Smoke and dust predictions are provided using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Current NAQFC focus is on updating CMAQ to version 5.0.2, improving PM2.5 predictions, and updating emissions estimates, especially for NOx using recently observed trends. Wildfire smoke emissions from a newer version of the USFS BlueSky system are being included in a new configuration of the NAQFC NAM-CMAQ system, which is re-run for the previous 24 hours when the wildfires were observed from satellites, to better represent wildfire emissions prior to initiating predictions for the next 48 hours. In addition, NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to represent the earth system for extended weather prediction. NGGPS will include a representation of atmospheric dynamics, physics, aerosols and atmospheric composition as well as coupling with ocean, wave, ice and land components. NGGPS is being developed with a broad community involvement, including community developed components and academic research to develop and test potential improvements for potentially inclusion in NGGPS. Several investigators at NOAA's research laboratories and in academia are working to improve the aerosol and gaseous chemistry representation for NGGPS, to develop and evaluate the representation of atmospheric composition, and to establish and improve the coupling with radiation and microphysics

  11. Long-term orbit prediction for Tiangong-1 spacecraft using the mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Cheng, Haowen; Hu, Songjie; Duan, Jianfeng

    2015-03-01

    China is planning to complete its first space station by 2020. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit of the space station needs to be predicted for a long period of time. Since the space station is expected to work in a low-Earth orbit, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce a semi-major axis error of up to a few kilometers and an overall position error of several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSISE00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during the orbit determination. For the long-term orbit prediction, we use sufficiently long period of observations and obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series contains the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periodic components. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. Here we carry out the test with China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft at the altitude of about 340 km and we show that this method is simple and flexible. The densities predicted with this approach can serve in the long-term orbit prediction. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700 m and overall position errors better than 400 km.

  12. Long-term orbit prediction for China's Tiangong-1 spacecraft based on mean atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin; Miao, Manqian

    Tiangong-1 is China's test module for future space station. It has gone through three successful rendezvous and dockings with Shenzhou spacecrafts from 2011 to 2013. For the long-term management and maintenance, the orbit sometimes needs to be predicted for a long period of time. As Tiangong-1 works in a low-Earth orbit with an altitude of about 300-400 km, the error in the a priori atmosphere model contributes significantly to the rapid increase of the predicted orbit error. When the orbit is predicted for 10-20 days, the error in the a priori atmosphere model, if not properly corrected, could induce the semi-major axis error and the overall position error up to a few kilometers and several thousand kilometers respectively. In this work, we use a mean atmosphere model averaged from NRLMSIS00. The a priori reference mean density can be corrected during precise orbit determination (POD). For applications in the long-term orbit prediction, the observations are first accumulated. With sufficiently long period of observations, we are able to obtain a series of the diurnal mean densities. This series bears the recent variation of the atmosphere density and can be analyzed for various periods. After being properly fitted, the mean density can be predicted and then applied in the orbit prediction. We show that the densities predicted with this approach can serve to increase the accuracy of the predicted orbit. In several 20-day prediction tests, most predicted orbits show semi-major axis errors better than 700m and overall position errors better than 600km.

  13. For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judt, Falko

    2017-04-01

    A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex

  14. Atmospheric corrosion tests along the Norwegian-Russian border. Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksen, J.F.; Mikhailov, A.A.

    1997-12-31

    A bilateral exposure programme was carried out along the Norwegian-Russian border in 1990-1991, 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 to evaluate quantitatively the effect of sulphur pollutants on the atmospheric corrosion of important materials in sub-arctic climate. The first part of the programme demonstrated that also in subarctic climate do metals corrode depending on the atmospheric corrosivity, and dose-response functions were derived which combined the effects of SO{sub 2} and time of wetness. The second part of the programme, which is described in this report, involved exposures of carbon steel, zinc and copper at two sites in Norway and three sites in Russia. It is concluded that the accelerated atmospheric corrosion of metals in regions along the border is mainly due to dry deposition of sulphur. At some sites, dry deposition of Cl contributes because of sea-salt aerosols. The corrosivity of acid precipitation is certain but could not be represented as a function because of the small differences observed in the pH values at the different sites. At all test sites the kinetics of corrosion of steel, zinc and copper are characterized by a reduced corrosion rate after one year of exposure. Time of wetness is an important parameter in predicting atmospheric corrosion of metals even on a regional scale. Hence, for monitoring and for trend-effect analysis, it is very important to determine the corrosivity of SO{sub 2} with time of wetness. In accordance with dose-response functions obtained, the yearly corrosion rate for steel and zinc are higher for the areas with higher amounts of dry deposition of Cl than for areas with analogous but only SO{sub 2}-containing atmosphere. 6 refs., 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  15. Disturbance observer based model predictive control for accurate atmospheric entry of spacecraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chao; Yang, Jun; Li, Shihua; Li, Qi; Guo, Lei

    2018-05-01

    Facing the complex aerodynamic environment of Mars atmosphere, a composite atmospheric entry trajectory tracking strategy is investigated in this paper. External disturbances, initial states uncertainties and aerodynamic parameters uncertainties are the main problems. The composite strategy is designed to solve these problems and improve the accuracy of Mars atmospheric entry. This strategy includes a model predictive control for optimized trajectory tracking performance, as well as a disturbance observer based feedforward compensation for external disturbances and uncertainties attenuation. 500-run Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed composite control scheme achieves more precise Mars atmospheric entry (3.8 km parachute deployment point distribution error) than the baseline control scheme (8.4 km) and integral control scheme (5.8 km).

  16. Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part II: extratropical East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

    2016-07-01

    The part II of the present study focuses on northern East Asia (NEA: 26°N-50°N, 100°-140°E), exploring the source and limit of the predictability of the peak summer (July-August) rainfall. Prediction of NEA peak summer rainfall is extremely challenging because of the exposure of the NEA to midlatitude influence. By examining four coupled climate models' multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast during 1979-2010, we found that the domain-averaged MME temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill is only 0.13. It is unclear whether the dynamical models' poor skills are due to limited predictability of the peak-summer NEA rainfall. In the present study we attempted to address this issue by applying predictable mode analysis method using 35-year observations (1979-2013). Four empirical orthogonal modes of variability and associated major potential sources of variability are identified: (a) an equatorial western Pacific (EWP)-NEA teleconnection driven by EWP sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, (b) a western Pacific subtropical high and Indo-Pacific dipole SST feedback mode, (c) a central Pacific-El Nino-Southern Oscillation mode, and (d) a Eurasian wave train pattern. Physically meaningful predictors for each principal component (PC) were selected based on analysis of the lead-lag correlations with the persistent and tendency fields of SST and sea-level pressure from March to June. A suite of physical-empirical (P-E) models is established to predict the four leading PCs. The peak summer rainfall anomaly pattern is then objectively predicted by using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns. A 35-year cross-validated hindcast over the NEA yields a domain-averaged TCC skill of 0.36, which is significantly higher than the MME dynamical hindcast (0.13). The estimated maximum potential attainable TCC skill averaged over the entire domain is around 0.61, suggesting that the current dynamical prediction models may have large rooms to improve

  17. Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

    2003-04-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

  18. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: facilitating the prediction of air quality from global to local scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelen, R. J.; Peuch, V. H.

    2017-12-01

    The European Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition and regional air quality. The global forecasting system is using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which is used for numerical weather prediction and which has been extended with modules for atmospheric chemistry, aerosols and greenhouse gases. The regional forecasts are produced by an ensemble of seven operational European air quality models that take their boundary conditions from the global system and provide an ensemble median with ensemble spread as their main output. Both the global and regional forecasting systems are feeding their output into air quality models on a variety of scales in various parts of the world. We will introduce the CAMS service chain and provide illustrations of its use in downstream applications. Both the usage of the daily forecasts and the usage of global and regional reanalyses will be addressed.

  19. Predicting Ionization Rates from SEP and Solar Wind Proton Precipitation into the Martian Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolitz, R.; Dong, C.; Lee, C. O.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Brain, D.; Halekas, J. S.; Larson, D. E.; Bougher, S. W.; Jakosky, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitating energetic particles ionize planetary atmospheres and increase total electron content. At Mars, the solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) can precipitate directly into the atmosphere because solar wind protons can charge exchange to become neutrals and pass through the magnetosheath, while SEPs are sufficiently energetic to cross the magnetosheath unchanged. In this study we will present predicted ionization rates and resulting electron densities produced by solar wind and SEP proton ionization during nominal solar activity and a CME shock front impact event on May 16 2016. We will use the Atmospheric Scattering of Protons and Energetic Neutrals (ASPEN) model to compare ionization by SEP and solar wind protons currently measured by the SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) and SEP instruments aboard the MAVEN spacecraft. Results will help to quantify how the ionosphere responds to extreme solar events during solar minimum.

  20. Modeling transducer impulse responses for predicting calibrated pressure pulses with the ultrasound simulation program Field II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Willatzen, Morten

    2010-01-01

    FIELD II is a simulation software capable of predicting the field pressure in front of transducers having any complicated geometry. A calibrated prediction with this program is, however, dependent on an exact voltage-to-surface acceleration impulse response of the transducer. Such impulse response...... is not calculated by FIELD II. This work investigates the usability of combining a one-dimensional multilayer transducer modeling principle with the FIELD II software. Multilayer here refers to a transducer composed of several material layers. Measurements of pressure and current from Pz27 piezoceramic disks...... transducer model and the FIELD II software in combination give good agreement with measurements....

  1. Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

    2014-09-15

    Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. PHOTOCHEMISTRY IN TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANET ATMOSPHERES. II. H{sub 2}S AND SO{sub 2} PHOTOCHEMISTRY IN ANOXIC ATMOSPHERES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu Renyu; Seager, Sara; Bains, William, E-mail: hury@mit.edu [Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2013-05-20

    Sulfur gases are common components in the volcanic and biological emission on Earth, and are expected to be important input gases for atmospheres on terrestrial exoplanets. We study the atmospheric composition and the spectra of terrestrial exoplanets with sulfur compounds (i.e., H{sub 2}S and SO{sub 2}) emitted from their surfaces. We use a comprehensive one-dimensional photochemistry model and radiative transfer model to investigate the sulfur chemistry in atmospheres ranging from reducing to oxidizing. The most important finding is that both H{sub 2}S and SO{sub 2} are chemically short-lived in virtually all types of atmospheres on terrestrial exoplanets, based on models of H{sub 2}, N{sub 2}, and CO{sub 2} atmospheres. This implies that direct detection of surface sulfur emission is unlikely, as their surface emission rates need to be extremely high (>1000 times Earth's volcanic sulfur emission) for these gases to build up to a detectable level. We also find that sulfur compounds emitted from the surface lead to photochemical formation of elemental sulfur and sulfuric acid in the atmosphere, which would condense to form aerosols if saturated. For terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars or M stars, Earth-like sulfur emission rates result in optically thick haze composed of elemental sulfur in reducing H{sub 2}-dominated atmospheres for a wide range of particle diameters (0.1-1 {mu}m), which is assumed as a free parameter in our simulations. In oxidized atmospheres composed of N{sub 2} and CO{sub 2}, optically thick haze, composed of elemental sulfur aerosols (S{sub 8}) or sulfuric acid aerosols (H{sub 2}SO{sub 4}), will form if the surface sulfur emission is two orders of magnitude more than the volcanic sulfur emission of Earth. Although direct detection of H{sub 2}S and SO{sub 2} by their spectral features is unlikely, their emission might be inferred by observing aerosol-related features in reflected light with future generation

  3. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  4. Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.

  5. Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deflorio, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.

  6. Real Time Radioactivity Monitoring and its Interface with predictive atmospheric transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, F.

    1990-01-01

    After the Chernobyl accident, a programme was initiated at the Joint Research Centre of the Commission of the European Communities named 'Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring' (REM). The main aspects considered in REM are: data handling, atmospheric modelling and data quality control related to radioactivity in the environment. The first REM workshop was held in December 1987: 'Aerosol Measurements and Nuclear Accidents: A Reconsideration'. (CEC EUR 11755 EN). These are the proceedings of the second REM workshop, held in December 1989, dealing with real-time radioactivity monitoring and its interface with predictive atmospheric models. Atmospheric transport models, in applications extending over time scales of the order of a day or more become progressively less reliable to the extent that an interface with real-time radiological field data becomes highly desirable. Through international arrangements for early exchange of information in the event of a nuclear accident (European Community, IAEA) such data might become available on a quasi real-time basis. The question is how best to use such information to improve our predictive capabilities. During the workshop the present status of on-line monitoring networks for airborne radioactivity in the EC Member States has been reviewed. Possibilities were discussed to use data from such networks as soon as they become available, in order to update predictions made with long range transport models. This publication gives the full text of 13 presentations and a report of the Round Table Discussion held afterwards

  7. Sources of long-lived atmospheric VOCs at the rural boreal forest site, SMEAR II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patokoski, J.; Ruuskanen, T. M.; Kajos, M. K.; Taipale, R.; Rantala, P.; Aalto, J.; Ryyppö, T.; Nieminen, T.; Hakola, H.; Rinne, J.

    2015-12-01

    In this study a long-term volatile organic compound (VOCs) concentration data set, measured at the SMEAR II (Station for Measuring Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations) boreal forest site in Hyytiälä, Finland during the years 2006-2011, was analyzed in order to identify source areas and profiles of the observed VOCs. VOC mixing ratios were measured using proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry. Four-day HYSPLIT 4 (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) backward trajectories and the Unmix 6.0 receptor model were used for source area and source composition analysis. Two major forest fire events in Russia took place during the measurement period. The effect of these fires was clearly visible in the trajectory analysis, lending confidence to the method employed with this data set. Elevated volume mixing ratios (VMRs) of non-biogenic VOCs related to forest fires, e.g. acetonitrile and aromatic VOCs, were observed. Ten major source areas for long-lived VOCs (methanol, acetonitrile, acetaldehyde, acetone, benzene, and toluene) observed at the SMEAR II site were identified. The main source areas for all the targeted VOCs were western Russia, northern Poland, Kaliningrad, and the Baltic countries. Industrial areas in northern continental Europe were also found to be source areas for certain VOCs. Both trajectory and receptor analysis showed that air masses from northern Fennoscandia were less polluted with respect to both the VOCs studied and other trace gases (CO, SO2 and NOx), compared to areas of eastern and western continental Europe, western Russia, and southern Fennoscandia.

  8. Extreme Environment Damage Index and Accumulation Model for CMC Laminate Fatigue Life Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Materials Research & Design (MR&D) is proposing in the SBIR Phase II an effort to develop a tool for predicting the fatigue life of C/SiC composite...

  9. SOX9 Expression Predicts Relapse of Stage II Colon Cancer Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espersen, Maiken Lise Marcker; Linnemann, Dorte; Christensen, Ib Jarle

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate if the protein expression of Sex-determining region y-box 9 (SOX9) in primary tumors could predict relapse of stage II colon cancer patients.144 patients with stage II primary colon cancer were retrospectively enrolledin the study. SOX9 expression...

  10. Robust Prediction of High Lift Using Surface Vorticity, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — FlightStream has been developed a fast, accurate, aerodynamic prediction code based on vorticity computations on the surface of an aircraft. The code, though still a...

  11. Chaotic time series. Part II. System Identification and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjørn Lillekjendlie

    1994-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the second in a series of two, and describes the current state of the art in modeling and prediction of chaotic time series. Sample data from deterministic non-linear systems may look stochastic when analysed with linear methods. However, the deterministic structure may be uncovered and non-linear models constructed that allow improved prediction. We give the background for such methods from a geometrical point of view, and briefly describe the following types of methods: global polynomials, local polynomials, multilayer perceptrons and semi-local methods including radial basis functions. Some illustrative examples from known chaotic systems are presented, emphasising the increase in prediction error with time. We compare some of the algorithms with respect to prediction accuracy and storage requirements, and list applications of these methods to real data from widely different areas.

  12. A global high-resolution model experiment on the predictability of the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judt, F.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting high-impact weather phenomena is one of the most important aspects of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Over the last couple of years, a tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving NWP models, which allow for the seamless prediction of weather from local to planetary scales. Unfortunately, the predictability of specific meteorological phenomena in these models is not very well known. This raises questions about which forecast problems are potentially tractable, and what is the value of global convection-resolving model predictions for the end user. To address this issue, we use the Yellowstone supercomputer to conduct a global high-resolution predictability experiment with the recently developed Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The computing power of Yellowstone enables the model to run at a globally uniform resolution of 4 km with 55 vertical levels (>2 billion grid cells). These simulations, which require 3 million core-hours for the entire experiment, allow for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection (i.e., thunderstorm systems). Resolving organized deep moist convection alleviates grave limitations of previous predictability studies, which either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. By computing the error growth characteristics in a set of "identical twin" model runs, the experiment will clarify the intrinsic predictability limits of atmospheric phenomena on a wide range of scales, from severe thunderstorms to global-scale wind patterns that affect the distribution of tropical rainfall. Although a major task by itself, this study is intended to be exploratory work for a future predictability experiment going beyond of what has so far been feasible. We hope to use CISL's new Cheyenne supercomputer to conduct a similar predictability experiments on a global mesh with 1-2 km resolution. This

  13. Snow contribution to springtime atmospheric predictability over the second half of the twentieth century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peings, Yannick [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France et CNRS, Toulouse (France); CNRM/GMGEC/VDR, Toulouse (France); Douville, H.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France et CNRS, Toulouse (France)

    2011-09-15

    A set of global atmospheric simulations has been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model in order to quantify the contribution of realistic snow conditions to seasonal atmospheric predictability in addition to that of a perfect sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. The focus is on the springtime boreal hemisphere where the combination of a significant snow cover variability and an increasing solar radiation favour the potential snow influence on the surface energy budget. The study covers the whole 1950-2000 period through the use of an original snow mass reanalysis based on an off-line land surface model and possibly constrained by satellite snow cover observations. Two ensembles of 10-member AMIP-type experiments have been first performed with relaxed versus free snow boundary conditions. The nudging towards the monthly snow mass reanalysis significantly improves both potential and actual predictability of springtime surface air temperature over Central Europe and North America. Yet, the impact is confined to the lower troposphere and there is no clear improvement in the predictability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Further constraining the prescribed snow boundary conditions with satellite observations does not change much the results. Finally, using the snow reanalysis only for initializing the model on March 1st also leads to a positive impact on predicted low-level temperatures but with a weaker amplitude and persistence. A conditional skill approach as well as some selected case studies provide some guidelines for interpreting these results and suggest that an underestimated snow cover variability and a misrepresentation of ENSO teleconnections may hamper the benefit of an improved snow initialization in the ARPEGE-Climat model. (orig.)

  14. Monolayer II-VI semiconductors: A first-principles prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Hui; Chen, Nian-Ke; Zhang, S. B.; Li, Xian-Bin

    A systematic study of 32 honeycomb monolayer II-VI semiconductors is carried out by first-principles methods. It appears that BeO, MgO, CaO, ZnO, CdO, CaS, SrS, SrSe, BaTe, and HgTe honeycomb monolayers have a good dynamic stability which is revealed by phonon calculations. In addition, from the molecular dynamic (MD) simulation of other unstable candidates, we also find two extra monolayers dynamically stable, which are tetragonal BaS and orthorhombic HgS. The honeycomb monolayers exist in form of either a planar perfect honeycomb or a low-buckled 2D layer, all of which possess a band gap and most of them are in the ultraviolet region. Interestingly, the dynamically stable SrSe has a gap near visible light, and displays exotic electronic properties with a flat top of the valence band, and hence has a strong spin polarization upon hole doping. The honeycomb HgTe has been reported to achieve a topological nontrivial phase under appropriate in-plane tensile strain and spin-orbital coupling (SOC). Some II-VI partners with less than 5% lattice mismatch may be used to design novel 2D heterojunction devices. If synthesized, potential applications of these 2D II-VI families could include optoelectronics, spintronics, and strong correlated electronics. Distinguished Student (DS) Program of APS FIP travel funds.

  15. Prediction on long-term mean and mean square pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, S; Lamb, R G; Seinfeld, J H

    1976-01-01

    The general problem of predicting long-term average (say yearly) pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere is formulated. The pollutant concentration can be viewed as a random process, the complete description of which requires knowledge of its probability density function, which is unknown. The mean concentration is the first moment of the concentration distribution, and at present there exist a number of models for predicting the long-term mean concentration of an inert pollutant. The second moment, or mean square concentration, indicates additional features of the distribution, such as the level of fluctuations about the mean. In the paper a model proposed by Lamb for the long-term mean concentration is reviewed, and a new model for prediction of the long-term mean square concentration of an inert air pollutant is derived. The properties and uses of the model are discussed, and the equations defining the model are presented in a form for direct application to an urban area.

  16. Predicted continuum spectra of type II supernovae - LTE results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaviv, G.; Wehrse, R.; Wagoner, R. V.

    1985-01-01

    The continuum spectral energy distribution of the flux emerging from type II supernovae is calculated from quasi-static radiative transfer through a power-law density gradient, assuming radiative equilibrium and LTE. It is found that the Balmer jump disappears at high effective temperatures and low densities, while the spectrum resembles that of a dilute blackbody but is flatter with a sharper cutoff at the short-wavelength end. A significant UV excess is found in all models calculated. The calculation should be considered exploratory because of significant effects which are anticipated to arise from departure from LTE.

  17. Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

    2010-02-01

    Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

  18. Practical use of offsite atmospheric measurements to enhance profitability of onsite wind prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collier, Craig [GL Garrad Hassan (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the use of offsite atmospheric measurements to improve the profitability of onsite wind prediction. There are two common sensitivities used, intraday and interday. Results from US mid-western sites show that the error associated with wind predictions is large but there are possibilities for improvement. Inter- and intraday can be used traditionally to contribute towards NWP bias correction. Intraday alone can be used with machine learning and NWP. These techniques are compared and given in order of ease of use and potential accuracy gains. Some considerations and differences for all three techniques, namely, traditional, data assimilation and machine learning are also detailed. An offsite selection matrix shows how elements like location, geography and telemetry rate in the 3 techniques. The experimental setup for all 3 techniques over a 3-month period is given and the results are presented. It can be concluded that the results from these simple experiments show promise but vary in method and time scale.

  19. Impact of rainstorm and runoff modeling on predicted consequences of atmospheric releases from nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

    1980-05-01

    A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes. Predicted air and ground concentrations of radioactive material and resultant health consequences for the new model are compared to those of the original WASH-1400 model under invariant meteorological conditions and for realistic weather events using observed meteorological sequences. For a specific accident under a particular set of meteorological conditions, the new model can give significantly different results from those predicted by the WASH-1400 model, but the aggregate consequences produced for a large number of meteorological conditions are similar

  20. Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, H.; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Soufflet, Y. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona (Spain); Wouters, B. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-10-15

    A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is employed to investigate the impact of initial perturbation methods on the behaviour of five-member ensemble decadal re-forecasts. Three initial-condition perturbation strategies, atmosphere only, ocean only and atmosphere-ocean, have been used and the impact on selected variables have been investigated. The impact has been assessed in terms of climate drift, forecast quality and spread. The simulated global means of near-surface air temperature (T2M), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice area (SIA) for both Arctic and Antarctic show reasonably good quality, in spite of the non-negligible drift of the model. The skill in terms of correlation is not significantly affected by the particular perturbation method employed. The ensemble spread generated for T2M, SST and land surface precipitation (PCP) saturates quickly with any of the perturbation methods. However, for SIA, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and ocean heat content (OHC), the spread increases substantially during the forecast time when ocean perturbations are applied. Ocean perturbations are particularly important for Antarctic SIA and OHC for the middle and deep layers of the ocean. The results will be helpful in the design of ensemble prediction experiments. (orig.)

  1. The evaluation of CRIB II scoring system in predicting mortality in preterm newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Homa Babaei

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: The survival rate of premature newborns depends on gestational age, birth weight and condition when they are hospitalized. Different scoring systems to predict mortality in newborns has been designed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate value of CRIB II scoring system in predicting mortality rate of infants with birth weights less than 1500 grams. Material and Methods: In this 8 month cross - sectional study (September 2010 to April 2010 which was conducted in the NICU of Imam Reza hospital in Kermanshah, preterm newborns with birth weight less than 1500 gr and gestational age less than 32 weeks who were admitted within 12 hours after birth in the NICU ,were evaluated based on CRIB II scoring system . Results: 50 neonates out of 1360 (36.8% survived and 86 neonates(63.2% died. Average CRIB II score in newborn survived was 5.8±2.9 and in infants died was 9.8±2.9 (p <0.0001. Based on the AUC, the CRIB II score could predict about 0.85 (CI: 0.77-0.92 of mortality. Also based on the ROC curve cut-off point for scoring CRIB II, was 6.5. Conclusion: Our study showed that CRIB II has a high value( about %85 in predicting mortality in newborns with birth weights less than 1500 grams.

  2. 'Photosystem II: the water splitting enzyme of photosynthesis and the origin of oxygen in our atmosphere'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, James

    2016-01-01

    About 3 billion years ago an enzyme emerged which would dramatically change the chemical composition of our planet and set in motion an unprecedented explosion in biological activity. This enzyme used solar energy to power the thermodynamically and chemically demanding reaction of water splitting. In so doing it provided biology with an unlimited supply of reducing equivalents needed to convert carbon dioxide into the organic molecules of life while at the same time produced oxygen to transform our planetary atmosphere from an anaerobic to an aerobic state. The enzyme which facilitates this reaction and therefore underpins virtually all life on our planet is known as Photosystem II (PSII). It is a pigment-binding, multisubunit protein complex embedded in the lipid environment of the thylakoid membranes of plants, algae and cyanobacteria. Today we have detailed understanding of the structure and functioning of this key and unique enzyme. The journey to this level of knowledge can be traced back to the discovery of oxygen itself in the 18th-century. Since then there has been a sequence of mile stone discoveries which makes a fascinating story, stretching over 200 years. But it is the last few years that have provided the level of detail necessary to reveal the chemistry of water oxidation and O-O bond formation. In particular, the crystal structure of the isolated PSII enzyme has been reported with ever increasing improvement in resolution. Thus the organisational and structural details of its many subunits and cofactors are now well understood. The water splitting site was revealed as a cluster of four Mn ions and a Ca ion surrounded by amino-acid side chains, of which seven provide direct ligands to the metals. The metal cluster is organised as a cubane structure composed of three Mn ions and a Ca2+ linked by oxo-bonds with the fourth Mn ion attached to the cubane. This structure has now been synthesised in a non-protein environment suggesting that it is a totally

  3. Evaporated metal films as indicators of atmospheric pollution. II. Resistance measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lodge, Jr, J P; Frank, E R

    1962-01-01

    There appears to be a direct relationship between gross atmospheric features associated with the accumulation of substances in air that are corrosive to metals and the rate of resistance change of thin metallic films. This behavior is the most striking in aluminum. The suggested apparatus provides an inexpensive and rapid method determining total atmospheric corrosiveness. 1 reference, 10 figures.

  4. Medium-resolution Isaac Newton Telescope library of empirical spectra - II. The stellar atmospheric parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cenarro, A. J.; Peletier, R. F.; Sanchez-Blazquez, P.; Selam, S. O.; Toloba, E.; Cardiel, N.; Falcon-Barroso, J.; Gorgas, J.; Jimenez-Vicente, J.; Vazdekis, A.

    2007-01-01

    We present a homogeneous set of stellar atmospheric parameters (T-eff, log g, [Fe/H]) for MILES, a new spectral stellar library covering the range lambda lambda 3525-7500 angstrom at 2.3 angstrom (FWHM) spectral resolution. The library consists of 985 stars spanning a large range in atmospheric

  5. Impact of atmospheric release in stable night meteorological conditions; can emergency models predict dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Connan, O.; Hebert, D.; Solier, L.; Voiseux, C.; Lamotte, M.; Laguionie, P.; Maro, D.; Thomas, L. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LRC (France)

    2014-07-01

    Atmospheric dispersion of pollutant or radionuclides in stratified meteorological condition, i.e. especially when weather conditions are very stable, mainly at night, is still poorly understood and not well apprehended by the operational atmospheric dispersion models. However, correctly predicting the dispersion of a radioactive plume, and estimating the radiological consequences for the population, following an unplanned atmospheric release of radionuclides are crucial steps in an emergency response. To better understand dispersion in these special weather conditions, IRSN performed a series of 22 air sampling campaigns between 2010 and 2013 in the vicinity of the La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (AREVA - NC, France), at distances between 200 m and 3000 m from the facility. Krypton-85 ({sup 85}Kr), a b-and g-emitting radionuclide, released during the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel was used as a non-reactive tracer of radioactive plumes. Experimental campaigns were realized in stability class stable or very stable (E or F according to Pasquill classification) 18 times, and in neutral conditions (D according to Pasquill classification) 4 times. During each campaign, Krypton-85 real time measurement were made to find the plume around the plant, and then integrated samples (30 min) were collected in bag perpendicularly to the assumed wind direction axis. After measurement by gamma spectrometry, we have, when it was possible, estimate the point of impact and the width of the plume. The objective was to estimate the horizontal dispersion (width) of the plume at ground level in function of the distance and be able to calculate atmospheric transfer coefficients. In a second step, objective was to conclude on the use of common model and on their uncertainties. The results will be presented in terms of impact on the near-field. They will be compared with data obtained in previous years in neutral atmospheric conditions, and finally the results will be confronted with

  6. Improved prediction of MHC class I and class II epitopes using a novel Gibbs sampling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Worning, Peder

    2004-01-01

    Prediction of which peptides will bind a specific major histocompatibility complex (MHC) constitutes an important step in identifying potential T-cell epitopes suitable as vaccine candidates. MHC class II binding peptides have a broad length distribution complicating such predictions. Thus......, identifying the correct alignment is a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. In this context, we wish to describe a novel Gibbs motif sampler method ideally suited for recognizing such weak sequence motifs. The method is based on the Gibbs sampling method, and it incorporates...

  7. Harsh Environment Gas Sensor Array for Venus Atmospheric Measurements, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Makel Engineering and the Ohio State University propose to develop a harsh environment tolerant gas sensor array for atmospheric analysis in future Venus missions....

  8. A Reusable and Autonomous Ocean-Atmosphere Sensor Integration System (OASIS), Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The need to acquire observations on oceanic and atmospheric physical and biogeochemical processes continues to increase. These data are presently being used as...

  9. Compact, Rugged and Low-Cost Atmospheric Ozone DIAL Transmitter, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Real-time, high-frequency measurements of atmospheric ozone are becoming increasingly important to understand the impact of ozone towards climate change, to monitor...

  10. ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR WAVES IN PLANETS WITH ATMOSPHERIC SUPERROTATION. II. LAMB, SURFACE, AND CENTRIFUGAL WAVES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peralta, J.; López-Valverde, M. A.; Imamura, T.; Read, P. L.; Luz, D.; Piccialli, A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the second in a two-part study devoted to developing tools for a systematic classification of the wide variety of atmospheric waves expected on slowly rotating planets with atmospheric superrotation. Starting with the primitive equations for a cyclostrophic regime, we have deduced the analytical solution for the possible waves, simultaneously including the effect of the metric terms for the centrifugal force and the meridional shear of the background wind. In those cases where the conditions for the method of the multiple scales in height are met, these wave solutions are also valid when vertical shear of the background wind is present. A total of six types of waves have been found and their properties were characterized in terms of the corresponding dispersion relations and wave structures. In this second part, we study the waves' solutions when several atmospheric approximations are applied: Lamb, surface, and centrifugal waves. Lamb and surface waves are found to be quite similar to those in a geostrophic regime. By contrast, centrifugal waves turn out to be a special case of Rossby waves that arise in atmospheres in cyclostrophic balance. Finally, we use our results to identify the nature of the waves behind atmospheric periodicities found in polar and lower latitudes of Venus's atmosphere

  11. ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR WAVES IN PLANETS WITH ATMOSPHERIC SUPERROTATION. II. LAMB, SURFACE, AND CENTRIFUGAL WAVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peralta, J.; López-Valverde, M. A. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), Glorieta de la Astronomía, 18008 Granada (Spain); Imamura, T. [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency 3-1-1, Yoshinodai, Chuo-ku, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Read, P. L. [Clarendon Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford (United Kingdom); Luz, D. [Centro de Astronomia e Astrofísica da Universidade de Lisboa (CAAUL), Observatório Astronómico de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-018 Lisboa (Portugal); Piccialli, A., E-mail: peralta@iaa.es [LATMOS, UVSQ, 11 bd dAlembert, 78280 Guyancourt (France)

    2014-07-01

    This paper is the second in a two-part study devoted to developing tools for a systematic classification of the wide variety of atmospheric waves expected on slowly rotating planets with atmospheric superrotation. Starting with the primitive equations for a cyclostrophic regime, we have deduced the analytical solution for the possible waves, simultaneously including the effect of the metric terms for the centrifugal force and the meridional shear of the background wind. In those cases where the conditions for the method of the multiple scales in height are met, these wave solutions are also valid when vertical shear of the background wind is present. A total of six types of waves have been found and their properties were characterized in terms of the corresponding dispersion relations and wave structures. In this second part, we study the waves' solutions when several atmospheric approximations are applied: Lamb, surface, and centrifugal waves. Lamb and surface waves are found to be quite similar to those in a geostrophic regime. By contrast, centrifugal waves turn out to be a special case of Rossby waves that arise in atmospheres in cyclostrophic balance. Finally, we use our results to identify the nature of the waves behind atmospheric periodicities found in polar and lower latitudes of Venus's atmosphere.

  12. Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

  13. Operational mesoscale atmospheric dispersion prediction using high performance parallel computing cluster for emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivas, C.V.; Venkatesan, R.; Muralidharan, N.V.; Das, Someshwar; Dass, Hari; Eswara Kumar, P.

    2005-08-01

    An operational atmospheric dispersion prediction system is implemented on a cluster super computer for 'Online Emergency Response' for Kalpakkam nuclear site. The numerical system constitutes a parallel version of a nested grid meso-scale meteorological model MM5 coupled to a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The system provides 48 hour forecast of the local weather and radioactive plume dispersion due to hypothetical air borne releases in a range of 100 km around the site. The parallel code was implemented on different cluster configurations like distributed and shared memory systems. Results of MM5 run time performance for 1-day prediction are reported on all the machines available for testing. A reduction of 5 times in runtime is achieved using 9 dual Xeon nodes (18 physical/36 logical processors) compared to a single node sequential run. Based on the above run time results a cluster computer facility with 9-node Dual Xeon is commissioned at IGCAR for model operation. The run time of a triple nested domain MM5 is about 4 h for 24 h forecast. The system has been operated continuously for a few months and results were ported on the IMSc home page. Initial and periodic boundary condition data for MM5 are provided by NCMRWF, New Delhi. An alternative source is found to be NCEP, USA. These two sources provide the input data to the operational models at different spatial and temporal resolutions and using different assimilation methods. A comparative study on the results of forecast is presented using these two data sources for present operational use. Slight improvement is noticed in rainfall, winds, geopotential heights and the vertical atmospheric structure while using NCEP data probably because of its high spatial and temporal resolution. (author)

  14. Prediction of health effects of cross-border atmospheric pollutants using an aerosol forecast model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onishi, Kazunari; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi Thomas; Nojima, Masanori; Kurosaki, Yasunori; Fujitani, Yusuke; Otani, Shinji; Maki, Takashi; Shinoda, Masato; Kurozawa, Youichi; Yamagata, Zentaro

    2018-08-01

    Health effects of cross-border air pollutants and Asian dust are of significant concern in Japan. Currently, models predicting the arrival of aerosols have not investigated the association between arrival predictions and health effects. We investigated the association between subjective health symptoms and unreleased aerosol data from the Model of Aerosol Species in the Global Atmosphere (MASINGAR) acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency, with the objective of ascertaining if these data could be applied to predicting health effects. Subjective symptom scores were collected via self-administered questionnaires and, along with modeled surface aerosol concentration data, were used to conduct a risk evaluation using generalized estimating equations between October and November 2011. Altogether, 29 individuals provided 1670 responses. Spearman's correlation coefficients were determined for the relationship between the proportion of the participants reporting the maximum score of two or more for each symptom and the surface concentrations for each considered aerosol species calculated using MASINGAR; the coefficients showed significant intermediate correlations between surface sulfate aerosol concentration and respiratory, throat, and fever symptoms (R = 0.557, 0.454, and 0.470, respectively; p < 0.01). In the general estimation equation (logit link) analyses, a significant linear association of surface sulfate aerosol concentration, with an endpoint determined by reported respiratory symptom scores of two or more, was observed (P trend = 0.001, odds ratio [OR] of the highest quartile [Q4] vs. the lowest [Q1] = 5.31, 95% CI = 2.18 to 12.96), with adjustment for potential confounding. The surface sulfate aerosol concentration was also associated with throat and fever symptoms. In conclusion, our findings suggest that modeled data are potentially useful for predicting health risks of cross-border aerosol arrivals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

  15. In silico prediction of ROCK II inhibitors by different classification approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chuipu; Wu, Qihui; Luo, Yunxia; Ma, Huili; Shen, Jiangang; Zhang, Yongbin; Yang, Lei; Chen, Yunbo; Wen, Zehuai; Wang, Qi

    2017-11-01

    ROCK II is an important pharmacological target linked to central nervous system disorders such as Alzheimer's disease. The purpose of this research is to generate ROCK II inhibitor prediction models by machine learning approaches. Firstly, four sets of descriptors were calculated with MOE 2010 and PaDEL-Descriptor, and optimized by F-score and linear forward selection methods. In addition, four classification algorithms were used to initially build 16 classifiers with k-nearest neighbors [Formula: see text], naïve Bayes, Random forest, and support vector machine. Furthermore, three sets of structural fingerprint descriptors were introduced to enhance the predictive capacity of classifiers, which were assessed with fivefold cross-validation, test set validation and external test set validation. The best two models, MFK + MACCS and MLR + SubFP, have both MCC values of 0.925 for external test set. After that, a privileged substructure analysis was performed to reveal common chemical features of ROCK II inhibitors. Finally, binding modes were analyzed to identify relationships between molecular descriptors and activity, while main interactions were revealed by comparing the docking interaction of the most potent and the weakest ROCK II inhibitors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on ROCK II inhibitors utilizing machine learning approaches that provides a new method for discovering novel ROCK II inhibitors.

  16. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  17. Prediction of the binding affinities of peptides to class II MHC using a regularized thermodynamic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mittelmann Hans D

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The binding of peptide fragments of extracellular peptides to class II MHC is a crucial event in the adaptive immune response. Each MHC allotype generally binds a distinct subset of peptides and the enormous number of possible peptide epitopes prevents their complete experimental characterization. Computational methods can utilize the limited experimental data to predict the binding affinities of peptides to class II MHC. Results We have developed the Regularized Thermodynamic Average, or RTA, method for predicting the affinities of peptides binding to class II MHC. RTA accounts for all possible peptide binding conformations using a thermodynamic average and includes a parameter constraint for regularization to improve accuracy on novel data. RTA was shown to achieve higher accuracy, as measured by AUC, than SMM-align on the same data for all 17 MHC allotypes examined. RTA also gave the highest accuracy on all but three allotypes when compared with results from 9 different prediction methods applied to the same data. In addition, the method correctly predicted the peptide binding register of 17 out of 18 peptide-MHC complexes. Finally, we found that suboptimal peptide binding registers, which are often ignored in other prediction methods, made significant contributions of at least 50% of the total binding energy for approximately 20% of the peptides. Conclusions The RTA method accurately predicts peptide binding affinities to class II MHC and accounts for multiple peptide binding registers while reducing overfitting through regularization. The method has potential applications in vaccine design and in understanding autoimmune disorders. A web server implementing the RTA prediction method is available at http://bordnerlab.org/RTA/.

  18. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's Aqua Satellite: Applications for Volcano Rapid Response, Influenza Outbreak Prediction, and Drought Onset Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, S. E.; Fetzer, E. J.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Olsen, E. T.; Licata, S. J.; Hall, J. R.; Penteado, P. F.; Realmuto, V. J.; Thrastarson, H. T.; Teixeira, J.; Granger, S. L.; Behrangi, A.; Farahmand, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) has been returning daily global observations of Earth's atmospheric constituents and properties since 2002. With its 15-year data record and near real-time capability, AIRS data are being used in the development of applications that fall within many of the NASA Applied Science focus areas. An automated alert system for volcanic plumes has been developed that triggers on threshold breaches of SO2, ash and dust in granules of AIRS data. The system generates a suite of granule-scale maps that depict both plume and clouds, all accessible from the AIRS web site. Alerts are sent to a curated list of volcano community members, and links to views in NASA Worldview and Google Earth are also available. Seasonal influenza epidemics are major public health concern with millions of cases of severe illness and large economic impact. Recent studies have highlighted the role of absolute or specific humidity as a likely player in the seasonal nature of these outbreaks. A quasi-operational influenza outbreak prediction system has been developed based on the SIRS model which uses AIRS and NCEP humidity data, Center for Disease Control reports on flu and flu-like illnesses, and results from Google Flu Trends. Work is underway to account for diffusion (spatial) in addition to the temporal spreading of influenza. The US Drought Monitor (USDM) is generated weekly by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and is used by policymakers for drought decision-making. AIRS data have demonstrated utility in monitoring the development and detection of meteorological drought with both AIRS-derived standardized vapor pressure deficit and standardized relative humidity, showing early detection lead times of up to two months. An agreement was secured with the NDMC to begin a trial period using AIRS products in the production of the USDM, and in July of 2017 the operational delivery of weekly CONUS AIRS images of Relative Humidity, Surface Air Temperature

  19. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluation of atmospheric transport models for use in Phase II of the historical public exposures studies at the Rocky Flats Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rood, A.S.; Killough, G.G.; Till, J.E.

    1999-08-01

    Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase II of the Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain model (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, each lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models.

  1. A Scalable Version of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Spectral Forecast Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E. Rosmond

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS includes a state-of-the-art spectral forecast model similar to models run at several major operational numerical weather prediction (NWP centers around the world. The model, developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL in Monterey, California, has run operational at the Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographic Center (FNMOC since 1982, and most recently is being run on a Cray C90 in a multi-tasked configuration. Typically the multi-tasked code runs on 10 to 15 processors with overall parallel efficiency of about 90%. resolution is T159L30, but other operational and research applications run at significantly lower resolutions. A scalable NOGAPS forecast model has been developed by NRL in anticipation of a FNMOC C90 replacement in about 2001, as well as for current NOGAPS research requirements to run on DOD High-Performance Computing (HPC scalable systems. The model is designed to run with message passing (MPI. Model design criteria include bit reproducibility for different processor numbers and reasonably efficient performance on fully shared memory, distributed memory, and distributed shared memory systems for a wide range of model resolutions. Results for a wide range of processor numbers, model resolutions, and different vendor architectures are presented. Single node performance has been disappointing on RISC based systems, at least compared to vector processor performance. This is a common complaint, and will require careful re-examination of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP model software design and data organization to fully exploit future scalable architectures.

  2. Atmospheres and spectra of strongly magnetized neutron stars - II. The effect of vacuum polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Wynn C. G.; Lai, Dong

    2003-01-01

    We study the effect of vacuum polarization on the atmosphere structure and radiation spectra of neutron stars with surface magnetic fields B= 1014-1015 G, as appropriate for magnetars. Vacuum polarization modifies the dielectric property of the medium and gives rise to a resonance feature in the opacity; this feature is narrow and occurs at a photon energy that depends on the plasma density. Vacuum polarization can also induce resonant conversion of photon modes via a mechanism analogous to the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) mechanism for neutrino oscillation. We construct atmosphere models in radiative equilibrium with an effective temperature of a few ×106 K by solving the full radiative transfer equations for both polarization modes in a fully ionized hydrogen plasma. We discuss the subtleties in treating the vacuum polarization effects in the atmosphere models and present approximate solutions to the radiative transfer problem which bracket the true answer. We show from both analytic considerations and numerical calculations that vacuum polarization produces a broad depression in the X-ray flux at high energies (a few keV <~E<~ a few tens of keV) as compared to models without vacuum polarization; this arises from the density dependence of the vacuum resonance feature and the large density gradient present in the atmosphere. Thus the vacuum polarization effect softens the high-energy tail of the thermal spectrum, although the atmospheric emission is still harder than the blackbody spectrum because of the non-grey opacities. We also show that the depression of continuum flux strongly suppresses the equivalent width of the ion cyclotron line and therefore makes the line more difficult to observe.

  3. Transforming Atmospheric and Remotely-Sensed Information to Hydrologic Predictability in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Kettner, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Boehnert, J.; Priya, S.; Collins, D. C.; Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Young, W.; Singh, D.; Islam, A. S.

    2017-12-01

    South Asia is a flashpoint for natural disasters with profound societal impacts for the region and globally. Although close to 40% of the world's population depends on the Greater Himalaya's great rivers, $20 Billion of GDP is affected by river floods each year. The frequent occurrence of floods, combined with large and rapidly growing populations with high levels of poverty, make South Asia highly susceptible to humanitarian disasters. The challenges of mitigating such devastating disasters are exacerbated by the limited availability of real-time rain and stream gauge measuring stations and transboundary data sharing, and by constrained institutional commitments to overcome these challenges. To overcome such limitations, India and the World Bank have committed resources to the National Hydrology Project III, with the development objective to improve the extent, quality, and accessibility of water resources information and to strengthen the capacity of targeted water resources management institutions in India. The availability and application of remote sensing products and weather forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPS) have transformed river forecasting capability over the last decade, and is of interest to India. In this talk, we review the potential predictability of river flow contributed by some of the freely-available remotely-sensed and weather forecasting products within the framework of the physics of water migration through a watershed. Our specific geographical context is the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna river basin and a newly-available set of stream gauge measurements located over the region. We focus on satellite rainfall estimation, river height and width estimation, and EPS weather forecasts. For the later, we utilize the THORPEX-TIGGE dataset of global forecasts, and discuss how atmospheric predictability, as measured by an EPS, is transformed into hydrometeorological predictability. We provide an overview of the strengths and

  4. Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A.; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Zhou, Shuija

    2012-01-01

    Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

  5. Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, J. A.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Harrison, K. W.; Zhou, S.

    2012-12-01

    Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

  6. A Tool for Predicting Regulatory Approval After Phase II Testing of New Oncology Compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMasi, J A; Hermann, J C; Twyman, K; Kondru, R K; Stergiopoulos, S; Getz, K A; Rackoff, W

    2015-11-01

    We developed an algorithm (ANDI) for predicting regulatory marketing approval for new cancer drugs after phase II testing has been conducted, with the objective of providing a tool to improve drug portfolio decision-making. We examined 98 oncology drugs from the top 50 pharmaceutical companies (2006 sales) that first entered clinical development from 1999 to 2007, had been taken to at least phase II development, and had a known final outcome (research abandonment or regulatory marketing approval). Data on safety, efficacy, operational, market, and company characteristics were obtained from public sources. Logistic regression and machine-learning methods were used to provide an unbiased approach to assess overall predictability and to identify the most important individual predictors. We found that a simple four-factor model (activity, number of patients in the pivotal phase II trial, phase II duration, and a prevalence-related measure) had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting regulatory marketing approval. © 2015 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  7. Uniform Atmospheric Retrieval Analysis of Ultracool Dwarfs. II. Properties of 11 T dwarfs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Line, Michael R. [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ 85287 (United States); Marley, Mark S.; Freedman, Richard [NASA Ames Research Center, Mail Stop 245-3, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Liu, Michael C. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Burningham, Ben [Centre for Astrophysics Research, School of Physics, Astronomy and Mathematics, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield AL10 9AB (United Kingdom); Morley, Caroline V. [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Hinkel, Natalie R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Teske, Johanna [Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States); Fortney, Jonathan J. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Lupu, Roxana, E-mail: mrline@asu.edu [BAER Institute/NASA Ames Research Center, Mail Stop 245-3, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States)

    2017-10-20

    Brown dwarf spectra are rich in information revealing of the chemical and physical processes operating in their atmospheres. We apply a recently developed atmospheric retrieval tool to an ensemble of late-T dwarf (600–800 K) near-infrared (1–2.5 μ m) spectra. With these spectra we are able to directly constrain the molecular abundances for the first time of H{sub 2}O, CH{sub 4}, CO, CO{sub 2}, NH{sub 3}, H{sub 2}S, and Na+K, surface gravity, effective temperature, thermal structure, photometric radius, and cloud optical depths. We find that ammonia, water, methane, and the alkali metals are present and that their abundances are well constrained in all 11 objects. We find no significant trend in the water, methane, or ammonia abundances with temperature, but find a very strong (>25 σ ) decreasing trend in the alkali metal abundances with decreasing effective temperature, indicative of alkali rainout. As expected from previous work, we also find little evidence for optically thick clouds. With the methane and water abundances, we derive the intrinsic atmospheric metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratios. We find in our sample that metallicities are typically subsolar (−0.4 < [ M /H] < 0.1 dex) and carbon-to-oxygen ratios are somewhat supersolar (0.4 < C/O < 1.2), different than expectations from the local stellar population. We also find that the retrieved vertical thermal profiles are consistent with radiative equilibrium over the photospheric regions. Finally, we find that our retrieved effective temperatures are lower than previous inferences for some objects and that some of our radii are larger than expectations from evolutionary models, possibly indicative of unresolved binaries. This investigation and method represent a new and powerful paradigm for using spectra to determine the fundamental chemical and physical processes governing cool brown dwarf atmospheres.

  8. Predictive Modeling of a Paradigm Mechanical Cooling Tower Model: II. Optimal Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Predicted Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruixian Fang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work uses the adjoint sensitivity model of the counter-flow cooling tower derived in the accompanying PART I to obtain the expressions and relative numerical rankings of the sensitivities, to all model parameters, of the following model responses: (i outlet air temperature; (ii outlet water temperature; (iii outlet water mass flow rate; and (iv air outlet relative humidity. These sensitivities are subsequently used within the “predictive modeling for coupled multi-physics systems” (PM_CMPS methodology to obtain explicit formulas for the predicted optimal nominal values for the model responses and parameters, along with reduced predicted standard deviations for the predicted model parameters and responses. These explicit formulas embody the assimilation of experimental data and the “calibration” of the model’s parameters. The results presented in this work demonstrate that the PM_CMPS methodology reduces the predicted standard deviations to values that are smaller than either the computed or the experimentally measured ones, even for responses (e.g., the outlet water flow rate for which no measurements are available. These improvements stem from the global characteristics of the PM_CMPS methodology, which combines all of the available information simultaneously in phase-space, as opposed to combining it sequentially, as in current data assimilation procedures.

  9. Atmospheric Effects on Signal Propagation in Adverse Environmental Conditions: A Validation of the Advanced Refractive Effects Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    65 Figure 30. Chiang Mai , Thailand March Climatology AREPS M-unit graphic. ..............66 Figure 31. Standard Atmosphere AREPS M-unit...experiment as a precursor to the annual capstone field experiment (May and June) at the Mae Ngat Dam north of Chiang Mai , Thailand. COASTS R&D...Motorola 802.16 network components as discussed in Chapter II. Testing occurred approximately 40 km north of Chiang Mai , Thailand, at the Mae Ngat Dam

  10. Infrasound Predictions Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Atmospheric Green's Functions for the Source Physics Experiments 1-6.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poppeliers, Christian; Aur, Katherine Anderson; Preston, Leiph

    2018-03-01

    This report shows the results of constructing predictive atmospheric models for the Source Physics Experiments 1-6. Historic atmospheric data are combined with topography to construct an atmo- spheric model that corresponds to the predicted (or actual) time of a given SPE event. The models are ultimately used to construct atmospheric Green's functions to be used for subsequent analysis. We present three atmospheric models for each SPE event: an average model based on ten one- hour snap shots of the atmosphere and two extrema models corresponding to the warmest, coolest, windiest, etc. atmospheric snap shots. The atmospheric snap shots consist of wind, temperature, and pressure profiles of the atmosphere for a one-hour time window centered at the time of the predicted SPE event, as well as nine additional snap shots for each of the nine preceding years, centered at the time and day of the SPE event.

  11. Atmospheric structure deduced from disturbed line profiles application to Ca II lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mein, N.; Mein, P.; Malherbe, J.-M.; Dame, L.; Dumont, S.; CNRS, Laboratoire de Physique Stellaire et Planetaire, Verrieres-le-Buisson, France; College de France, Paris)

    1985-01-01

    A new method is described in order to derive physical quantities (temperature, pressure, radial velocities) from the observation of disturbed line profiles. A method of Fourier analysis is suggested with double profiles and a nonlinear expansion of the coefficient of the Fourier terms. An application to a sequence of H-Ca II lines is attempted. The method is a powerful tool allowing for the simultaneous determination of at least four physical quantities. 9 references

  12. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition budget in a subtropical hydroelectric reservoir (Nam Theun II case study, Lao PDR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adon, Marcellin; Galy-Lacaux, Corinne; Serça, Dominique; Guerin, Frederic; Guedant, Pierre; Vonghamsao, Axay; Rode, Wanidaporn

    2016-04-01

    With 490 km² at full level of operation, Nam Theun 2 (NT2) is one of the largest hydro-reservoir in South East Asia. NT2 is a trans-basin hydropower project that diverts water from the Nam Theun river (a Mekong tributary) to the Xe Ban Fai river (another Mekong tributary). Atmospheric deposition is an important source of nitrogen (N), and it has been shown that excessive fluxes of N from the atmosphere has resulted in eutrophication of many coastal waters. A large fraction of atmospheric N input is in the form of inorganic N. This study presents an estimation of the atmospheric inorganic nitrogen budget into the NT2 hydroelectric reservoir based on a two-year monitoring (July 2010 to July 2012) including gas concentrations and precipitation. Dry deposition fluxes are calculated from monthly mean surface measurements of NH3, HNO3 and NO2 concentrations (passive samplers) together with simulated deposition velocities, and wet deposition fluxes from NH4+ and NO3- concentrations in single event rain samples (automated rain sampler). Annual rainfall amount was 2500 and 3160 mm for the two years. The average nitrogen deposition flux is estimated at 1.13 kgN.ha-1.yr-1 from dry processes and 5.52 kgN.ha-1.yr-1 from wet ones, i.e., an average annual total nitrogen flux of 6.6 kgN.ha-1.yr-1 deposited into the NT2 reservoir. The wet deposition contributes to 83% of the total N deposition. The nitrogen deposition budget has been also calculated over the rain tropical forest surrounding the reservoir. Due to higher dry deposition velocities above forested ecosystems, gaseous dry deposition flux is estimated at 4.0 kgN.ha-1.yr-1 leading to a total nitrogen deposition about 9.5 kgN.ha-1.yr-1. This result will be compared to nitrogen deposition in the African equatorial forested ecosystems in the framework of the IDAF program (IGAC-DEBITS-AFrica).

  13. Time dependent worldwide distribution of atmospheric neutrons and of their products. I, II, III.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merker, M.; Light, E. S.; Verschell, H. J.; Mendell, R. B.; Korff, S. A.

    1973-01-01

    Review of the experimental results obtained in a series of measurements of the fast neutron cosmic ray spectrum by means of high-altitude balloons and aircraft. These results serve as a basis for checking a Monte Carlo calculation of the entire neutron distribution and its products. A calculation of neutron production and transport in the earth's atmosphere is then discussed for the purpose of providing a detailed description of the morphology of secondary neutron components. Finally, an analysis of neutron observations during solar particle events is presented. The Monte Carlo output is used to estimate the contribution of flare particles to fluctuations in the steady state neutron distributions.

  14. Predicting peptides binding to MHC class II molecules using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Lin

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Peptides binding to Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC class II molecules are crucial for initiation and regulation of immune responses. Predicting peptides that bind to a specific MHC molecule plays an important role in determining potential candidates for vaccines. The binding groove in class II MHC is open at both ends, allowing peptides longer than 9-mer to bind. Finding the consensus motif facilitating the binding of peptides to a MHC class II molecule is difficult because of different lengths of binding peptides and varying location of 9-mer binding core. The level of difficulty increases when the molecule is promiscuous and binds to a large number of low affinity peptides. In this paper, we propose two approaches using multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEA for predicting peptides binding to MHC class II molecules. One uses the information from both binders and non-binders for self-discovery of motifs. The other, in addition, uses information from experimentally determined motifs for guided-discovery of motifs. Results The proposed methods are intended for finding peptides binding to MHC class II I-Ag7 molecule – a promiscuous binder to a large number of low affinity peptides. Cross-validation results across experiments on two motifs derived for I-Ag7 datasets demonstrate better generalization abilities and accuracies of the present method over earlier approaches. Further, the proposed method was validated and compared on two publicly available benchmark datasets: (1 an ensemble of qualitative HLA-DRB1*0401 peptide data obtained from five different sources, and (2 quantitative peptide data obtained for sixteen different alleles comprising of three mouse alleles and thirteen HLA alleles. The proposed method outperformed earlier methods on most datasets, indicating that it is well suited for finding peptides binding to MHC class II molecules. Conclusion We present two MOEA-based algorithms for finding motifs

  15. Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

    2018-03-01

    Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

  16. An evaluation of multigroup flux predictions in the EBR-II core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, R.N.; Fanning, T.H.; Finck, P.J.

    1991-01-01

    The unique physics characteristics of EBR-II which are difficult to model with conventional neutronic methodologies are identified; the high neutron leakage fraction and importance of neutron reflection cause errors when conventional calculational approximations are utilized. In this paper, various conventional and higher-order group constant evaluations and flux computation methods are compared for a simplified R-Z model of the EBR-II system. Although conventional methods do provide adequate predictions of the flux in the core region, significant mispredictions are observed in the reflector and radial blanket regions. Calculational comparisons indicate that a fine energy group structure is required for accurate predictions of the eigenvalue and flux distribution; greater detail is needed in the iron resonance scattering treatment. Calculational comparisons also indicate that transport theory with detailed anisotropic scattering treatment is required

  17. An evaluation of multigroup flux predictions in the EBR-II core

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, R.N.; Fanning, T.H.; Finck, P.J.

    1991-12-31

    The unique physics characteristics of EBR-II which are difficult to model with conventional neutronic methodologies are identified; the high neutron leakage fraction and importance of neutron reflection cause errors when conventional calculational approximations are utilized. In this paper, various conventional and higher-order group constant evaluations and flux computation methods are compared for a simplified R-Z model of the EBR-II system. Although conventional methods do provide adequate predictions of the flux in the core region, significant mispredictions are observed in the reflector and radial blanket regions. Calculational comparisons indicate that a fine energy group structure is required for accurate predictions of the eigenvalue and flux distribution; greater detail is needed in the iron resonance scattering treatment. Calculational comparisons also indicate that transport theory with detailed anisotropic scattering treatment is required.

  18. An evaluation of multigroup flux predictions in the EBR-II core

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, R.N.; Fanning, T.H.; Finck, P.J.

    1991-01-01

    The unique physics characteristics of EBR-II which are difficult to model with conventional neutronic methodologies are identified; the high neutron leakage fraction and importance of neutron reflection cause errors when conventional calculational approximations are utilized. In this paper, various conventional and higher-order group constant evaluations and flux computation methods are compared for a simplified R-Z model of the EBR-II system. Although conventional methods do provide adequate predictions of the flux in the core region, significant mispredictions are observed in the reflector and radial blanket regions. Calculational comparisons indicate that a fine energy group structure is required for accurate predictions of the eigenvalue and flux distribution; greater detail is needed in the iron resonance scattering treatment. Calculational comparisons also indicate that transport theory with detailed anisotropic scattering treatment is required.

  19. Improved methods for predicting peptide binding affinity to MHC class II molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Kamilla Kjaergaard; Andreatta, Massimo; Marcatili, Paolo; Buus, Søren; Greenbaum, Jason A; Yan, Zhen; Sette, Alessandro; Peters, Bjoern; Nielsen, Morten

    2018-01-06

    Major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) molecules are expressed on the surface of professional antigen-presenting cells where they display peptides to T helper cells, which orchestrate the onset and outcome of many host immune responses. Understanding which peptides will be presented by the MHC-II molecule is therefore important for understanding the activation of T helper cells and can be used to identify T-cell epitopes. We here present updated versions of two MHC-II-peptide binding affinity prediction methods, NetMHCII and NetMHCIIpan. These were constructed using an extended data set of quantitative MHC-peptide binding affinity data obtained from the Immune Epitope Database covering HLA-DR, HLA-DQ, HLA-DP and H-2 mouse molecules. We show that training with this extended data set improved the performance for peptide binding predictions for both methods. Both methods are publicly available at www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCII-2.3 and www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCIIpan-3.2. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Vertical propagation of waves in the solar atmosphere. II. Phase delays in the quiet chromosphere and cell-network distinctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lites, B.W.; Chipman, E.G.; White, O.R.

    1982-01-01

    The differences in the phase of the velocity oscillations between a pair of chromospheric Ca II lines was measured using the Vacuum Tower Telescope at the Sacramento Peak Observatory. The observed phase differences indicate that the acoustic modes are trapped or envanescent, rather than propagating in the chromosphere. We find systematic distinctions in the phase delays between quiet network and cell interior regions for both intensity and velocity oscillations in photospheric and chromospheric lines. The theory of linear perturbations in a isothermal atmosphere is invoked to interpret these differences. From this analysis we find that one or more of the following explanations is possible. (1) the radiative damping is more effective in the network than in the cell interior; (2) the network features exclude oscillations of large horizontal wavenumber; or (3) the scale height of the chromosphere is larger in the network than in the cell interior

  1. ELLERMAN BOMBS AT HIGH RESOLUTION. II. TRIGGERING, VISIBILITY, AND EFFECT ON UPPER ATMOSPHERE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vissers, Gregal J. M.; Rouppe van der Voort, Luc H. M.; Rutten, Robert J., E-mail: g.j.m.vissers@astro.uio.no [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029 Blindern, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway)

    2013-09-01

    We use high-resolution imaging spectroscopy with the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope (SST) to study the transient brightenings of the wings of the Balmer H{alpha} line in emerging active regions that are called Ellerman bombs. Simultaneous sampling of Ca II 8542 A with the SST confirms that most Ellerman bombs also occur in the wings of this line, but with markedly different morphology. Simultaneous images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) show that Ellerman bombs are also detectable in the photospheric 1700 A continuum, again with differing morphology. They are also observable in 1600 A SDO images, but with much contamination from C IV emission in transition-region features. Simultaneous SST spectropolarimetry in Fe I 6301 A shows that Ellerman bombs occur at sites of strong-field magnetic flux cancellation between small bipolar strong-field patches that rapidly move together over the solar surface. Simultaneous SDO images in He II 304 A, Fe IX 171 A, and Fe XIV 211 A show no clear effect of the Ellerman bombs on the overlying transition region and corona. These results strengthen our earlier suggestion, based on H{alpha} morphology alone, that the Ellerman bomb phenomenon is a purely photospheric reconnection phenomenon.

  2. Parallel implementation of the PHOENIX generalized stellar atmosphere program. II. Wavelength parallelization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, E.; Hauschildt, Peter H.

    1998-01-01

    We describe an important addition to the parallel implementation of our generalized nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) stellar atmosphere and radiative transfer computer program PHOENIX. In a previous paper in this series we described data and task parallel algorithms we have developed for radiative transfer, spectral line opacity, and NLTE opacity and rate calculations. These algorithms divided the work spatially or by spectral lines, that is, distributing the radial zones, individual spectral lines, or characteristic rays among different processors and employ, in addition, task parallelism for logically independent functions (such as atomic and molecular line opacities). For finite, monotonic velocity fields, the radiative transfer equation is an initial value problem in wavelength, and hence each wavelength point depends upon the previous one. However, for sophisticated NLTE models of both static and moving atmospheres needed to accurately describe, e.g., novae and supernovae, the number of wavelength points is very large (200,000 - 300,000) and hence parallelization over wavelength can lead both to considerable speedup in calculation time and the ability to make use of the aggregate memory available on massively parallel supercomputers. Here, we describe an implementation of a pipelined design for the wavelength parallelization of PHOENIX, where the necessary data from the processor working on a previous wavelength point is sent to the processor working on the succeeding wavelength point as soon as it is known. Our implementation uses a MIMD design based on a relatively small number of standard message passing interface (MPI) library calls and is fully portable between serial and parallel computers. copyright 1998 The American Astronomical Society

  3. Theory of extended stellar atmospheres. II. A grid of static spherical models for O stars and planetary nebula nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunasz, P.B.; Hummer, D.G.; Mihalas, D.

    1975-01-01

    Spherical static non-LTE model atmospheres are presented for stars with M/M/sub sun/=30 and 60 at various points on their evolutionary tracks, and for some nuclei of planetary nebulae at two points of a modified Harman-Seaton sequence. The method of Mihalas and Hummer was employed, which uses a parametrized radiation force multiplier to simulate the force of radiation arising from the entire line spectrum. However, in the present work the density structure computed in the LTE models was held fixed in the calculation of the corresponding non-LTE models; in addition, the opacity of an ''average light ion'' was taken into account. The temperatures for the non-LTE models are generally lower, at a given depth, than for the corresponding LTE models when T/sub eff/<45,000 K, while the situation is reversed at higher temperatures. The continuous energy distributions are generally flattened by extension. The Lyman jump is in emission for extended models of massive stars, but never for the models of nuclei of planetary nebulae (this is primarily a temperature effect). The Balmer jumps are always in absorption. The Lyman lines are in emission, and the Balmer lines in absorption; He ii lambda4686 comes into emission in the most extended models without hydrogen line pumping, showing that it is an indicator of atmospheric extension. Very severe limb darkening is found for extended models, which have apparent angular sized significantly smaller than expected from the geometrical size of the star. Extensive tables are given of monochromatic magnitudes, continuum jumps and gradients, Stomgren-system colors, monochromatic extensions, and the profiles and equivalent widths of the hydrogen lines for all models, and of the He ii lines for some of the 60 M/sub X/ models

  4. A Unified Air-Sea Interface in Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Models for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi; Curcic, Milan; Donelan, Mark; Campbell, Tim; Smith, Travis; Chen, Sue; Allard, Rick; Michalakes, John

    2014-05-01

    The goals of this study are to 1) better understand the physical processes controlling air-sea interaction and their impact on coastal marine and storm predictions, 2) explore the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean observations in model verification and data assimilation, and 3) develop a physically based and computationally efficient coupling at the air-sea interface that is flexible for use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation research and operational coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land models. We have developed a unified air-sea interface module that couples multiple atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It also allows for future ensemble forecasts using coupled models that can be used for coupled data assimilation and assessment of uncertainties in coupled model predictions. The current component models include two atmospheric models (WRF and COAMPS), two ocean models (HYCOM and NCOM), and two wave models (UMWM and SWAN). The coupled modeling systems have been tested and evaluated using the coupled air-sea observations (e.g., GPS dropsondes and AXBTs, drifters and floats) collected in recent field campaigns in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This talk will provide an overview of the unified air-sea interface model and fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions over various coastal regions and tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic basins including an example from coupled ensemble prediction of Superstorm Sandy (2012).

  5. NKS NordRisk II: Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Astrup, Poul; Lauritzen, Bent

    The present atlas has been developed within the NKS/NordRisk-II project "Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe". The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from 16 nuclear risk sites on the Northern Hemisphere...... spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and corresponding time evolution of the ensemble mean atmospheric dispersion....

  6. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available to seasonal forecasts, and produce multi-decadal climate change projections. This paper focuses on the shorter time-range from days to seasons. The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) that can operate...

  7. Atmospheric dispersion prediction and source estimation of hazardous gas using artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization and expectation maximization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Sihang; Chen, Bin; Wang, Rongxiao; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Wang, Yuan; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2018-04-01

    Hazardous gas leak accident has posed a potential threat to human beings. Predicting atmospheric dispersion and estimating its source become increasingly important in emergency management. Current dispersion prediction and source estimation models cannot satisfy the requirement of emergency management because they are not equipped with high efficiency and accuracy at the same time. In this paper, we develop a fast and accurate dispersion prediction and source estimation method based on artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and expectation maximization (EM). The novel method uses a large amount of pre-determined scenarios to train the ANN for dispersion prediction, so that the ANN can predict concentration distribution accurately and efficiently. PSO and EM are applied for estimating the source parameters, which can effectively accelerate the process of convergence. The method is verified by the Indianapolis field study with a SF6 release source. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

  8. EMERGENCE OF GRANULAR-SIZED MAGNETIC BUBBLES THROUGH THE SOLAR ATMOSPHERE. II. NON-LTE CHROMOSPHERIC DIAGNOSTICS AND INVERSIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodríguez, Jaime de la Cruz [Institute for Solar Physics, Department of Astronomy, Stockholm University, Albanova University Center, SE-10691 Stockholm (Sweden); Hansteen, Viggo; Ortiz, Ada [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1029 Blindern, NO-0315 Oslo (Norway); Bellot-Rubio, Luis, E-mail: jaime@astro.su.se [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), Apartado de Correos 3004, E-18080 Granada (Spain)

    2015-09-10

    Magnetic flux emergence into the outer layers of the Sun is a fundamental mechanism for releasing energy into the chromosphere and the corona. In this paper, we study the emergence of granular-sized flux concentrations and the structuring of the corresponding physical parameters and atmospheric diagnostics in the upper photosphere and in the chromosphere. We make use of a realistic 3D MHD simulation of the outer layers of the Sun to study the formation of the Ca ii 8542 line. We also derive semi-empirical 3D models from non-LTE inversions of our observations. These models contain information on the line-of-sight stratifications of temperature, velocity, and the magnetic field. Our analysis explains the peculiar Ca ii 8542 Å profiles observed in the flux emerging region. Additionally, we derive detailed temperature and velocity maps describing the ascent of a magnetic bubble from the photosphere to the chromosphere. The inversions suggest that, in active regions, granular-sized bubbles emerge up to the lower chromosphere where the existing large-scale field hinders their ascent. We report hints of heating when the field reaches the chromosphere.

  9. Theory of the pulsar atmosphere. II. arbitrary magnetic and rotational axes; qualitative features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, E.A.

    1978-01-01

    An investigation is made of the dominant guiding center motions of particles in the vacuum near-field region (r 2 ) =Ωr sin theta, which are stationary relative to the star. In general the star acquires a charge, q/sub s/(X), which ensures that the net current from the star to the nebula is zero. This charge has a major influence on both the FFS and CDS, which is determined for arbitrary q/sub s/ and x. The emission regions for electrons and ions on the surface of the star are also determined in general. Since neither this emission process nor the E x B drift can produce charge mixing, this ''magnetoelectric'' atmosphere has the unique property of being charge separated, with each component associated with a spatially distinct FFS. Assuming that all particles which reach an ''emission cylinder' 7 (or similar surface), with a radius r/sub e/ 3 B 0 /3c) cos x, where B 0 is the polar field strength and R is the stellar radius. It is found that the star will probably produce no significant particle flux to the nebula if vertical-barx - π/2vertical-bar is much greater than 5 0 , provided that r/sub e/<100 R, and that this angular range decreases roughly as r/sub e//sup -1/2/

  10. Prediction of CMEs and Type II Bursts from Sun to Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairns, I. H.; Schmidt, J. M.; Gopalswamy, N.; van der Holst, B.

    2017-12-01

    Most major space weather events are due to fast CMEs and their shocks interacting with Earth's magnetosphere. SImilarly, type II solar radio bursts are well-known signatures of CMEs and their shocks moving through the corona and solar wind. The properties of the space weather events and the type II radio bursts depend sensitively on the CME velocity, shape, and evolution as functions of position and time, as well as on the magnetic field vector in the coronal and solar wind plasma, downstream of the CME shock, and inside the CME. We report simulations of CMEs and type II bursts from the Sun to Earth with the Space Weather Modelling Framework (2015 and 2016 versions), set up carefully using relevant data, and a kinetic radio emission theory. Excellent agreement between observations, simulations, and theory are found for the coronal (metric) type II burst of 7 September 2014 and associated CME, including the lack of radio emission in the solar wind beyond about 10 solar radii. Similarly, simulation of a CME and type II burst from the Sun to 1 AU over the period 29 November - 1 December 2013 yield excellent agreement for the radio burst from 10 MHz to 30 kHz for STEREO A and B and Wind, arrival of the CME at STEREO A within 1 hour reported time, deceleration of the CME in agreement with the Gopalswamy et al. [2011] observational analyses, and Bz rotations at STEREO A from upstream of the CME shock to within the CME. These results provide strong support for the type II theory and also that the Space WeatherModeling Framework can accurately predict the properties and evolution of CMEs and the interplanetary magnetic field and plasma from the Sun to 1 AU when sufficiently carefully initialized.

  11. Millimeter radiation from a 3D model of the solar atmosphere. II. Chromospheric magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loukitcheva, M.; White, S. M.; Solanki, S. K.; Fleishman, G. D.; Carlsson, M.

    2017-05-01

    Aims: We use state-of-the-art, three-dimensional non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) radiative magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the quiet solar atmosphere to carry out detailed tests of chromospheric magnetic field diagnostics from free-free radiation at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (mm/submm). Methods: The vertical component of the magnetic field was deduced from the mm/submm brightness spectra and the degree of circular polarization synthesized at millimeter frequencies. We used the frequency bands observed by the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) as a convenient reference. The magnetic field maps obtained describe the longitudinal magnetic field at the effective formation heights of the relevant wavelengths in the solar chromosphere. Results: The comparison of the deduced and model chromospheric magnetic fields at the spatial resolution of both the model and current observations demonstrates a good correlation, but has a tendency to underestimate the model field. The systematic discrepancy of about 10% is probably due to averaging of the restored field over the heights contributing to the radiation, weighted by the strength of the contribution. On the whole, the method of probing the longitudinal component of the magnetic field with free-free emission at mm/submm wavelengths is found to be applicable to measurements of the weak quiet-Sun magnetic fields. However, successful exploitation of this technique requires very accurate measurements of the polarization properties (primary beam and receiver polarization response) of the antennas, which will be the principal factor that determines the level to which chromospheric magnetic fields can be measured. Conclusions: Consequently, high-resolution and high-precision observations of circularly polarized radiation at millimeter wavelengths can be a powerful tool for producing chromospheric longitudinal magnetograms.

  12. Predicting academic performance through perceptions of the family atmosphere with the mediation of creative thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Zarejamalabadi

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: Since family atmosphere perceptions as well as creative thinking have a significant effect on academic performance, the role of parents towards their children and also creative thinking training is very important. 

  13. Predicting Atmospheric Ionization and Excitation by Precipitating SEP and Solar Wind Protons Measured By MAVEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolitz, Rebecca; Dong, Chuanfei; Lee, Christina; Lillis, Rob; Brain, David; Curry, Shannon; Halekas, Jasper; Bougher, Stephen W.; Jakosky, Bruce

    2017-10-01

    Precipitating energetic particles ionize and excite planetary atmospheres, increasing electron content and producing aurora. At Mars, the solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) can precipitate directly into the atmosphere because solar wind protons can charge exchange to become neutral and pass the magnetosheath, and SEPs are sufficiently energetic to cross the magnetosheath unchanged. We will compare ionization and Lyman alpha emission rates for solar wind and SEP protons during nominal solar activity and a CME shock front impact event on May 16 2016. We will use the Atmospheric Scattering of Protons and Energetic Neutrals (ASPEN) model to compare excitation and ionization rates by SEPs and solar wind protons currently measured by the SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) and SEP instruments aboard the MAVEN spacecraft. Results will help quantify how SEP and solar wind protons influence atmospheric energy deposition during solar minimum.

  14. NARAC: an emergency response resource for predicting the atmospheric dispersion and assessing the consequences of airborne radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, Michael M.

    2007-01-01

    The National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) serves as a national resource for the United States, providing tools and services to quickly predict the environmental contamination and health effects caused by airborne radionuclides, and to provide scientifically based guidance to emergency managers for the protection of human life. NARAC's scientists have developed a diverse tool kit of numerical modeling capabilities to respond to different types of release events, distance scales (local, regional, continental, and global), and response times

  15. Real-time prediction of atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures based on forecast data: An application and error analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    BozorgMagham, Amir E.; Ross, Shane D.; Schmale, David G.

    2013-09-01

    The language of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) provides a new means for studying transport and mixing of passive particles advected by an atmospheric flow field. Recent observations suggest that LCSs govern the large-scale atmospheric motion of airborne microorganisms, paving the way for more efficient models and management strategies for the spread of infectious diseases affecting plants, domestic animals, and humans. In addition, having reliable predictions of the timing of hyperbolic LCSs may contribute to improved aerobiological sampling of microorganisms with unmanned aerial vehicles and LCS-based early warning systems. Chaotic atmospheric dynamics lead to unavoidable forecasting errors in the wind velocity field, which compounds errors in LCS forecasting. In this study, we reveal the cumulative effects of errors of (short-term) wind field forecasts on the finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) fields and the associated LCSs when realistic forecast plans impose certain limits on the forecasting parameters. Objectives of this paper are to (a) quantify the accuracy of prediction of FTLE-LCS features and (b) determine the sensitivity of such predictions to forecasting parameters. Results indicate that forecasts of attracting LCSs exhibit less divergence from the archive-based LCSs than the repelling features. This result is important since attracting LCSs are the backbone of long-lived features in moving fluids. We also show under what circumstances one can trust the forecast results if one merely wants to know if an LCS passed over a region and does not need to precisely know the passage time.

  16. The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

    2017-04-01

    The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For

  17. Simulation and prediction the impact of climate change into water resources in Bengawan Solo watershed based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipayung, Sinta B.; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang

    2018-05-01

    Bengawan Solo Watershed is one of the largest watersheds in Indonesia. This watershed flows in many areas both in Central Java and East Java. Therefore, the water resources condition greatly affects many people. This research will be conducted on prediction of climate change effect on water resources condition in terms of rainfall conditions in Bengawan Solo River Basin. The goal of this research is to know and predict the climate change impact on water resources based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model) with downscaling baseline (historical) model data from 1949 to 2005 and RCP 4.5 from 2006 to 2069. The modeling data was validated with in-situ data (measurement data). To analyse the water availability condition in Bengawan Solo Watershed, the simulation of river flow and water balance condition were done in Bengawan Solo River. Simulation of river flow and water balance conditions were done with ArcSWAT model using climate data from CCAM, DEM SRTM 90 meter, soil type, and land use data. The results of this simulation indicate there is (i) The CCAM data itself after validation has a pretty good result when compared to the insitu data. Based on CCAM simulation results, it is predicted that in 2040-2069 rainfall in Bengawan Solo River Basin will decrease, to a maximum of only about 1 mm when compared to 1971-2000. (ii) The CCAM rainfall prediction itself shows that rainfall in Bengawan Solo River basin will decline until 2069 although the decline itself is not significant and tends to be negligible (rainfall is considered unchanged) (iii) Both in the DJF and JJA seasons, precipitation is predicted to decline as well despite the significant decline. (iv) The river flow simulation show that the water resources in Bengawan Solo River did not change significantly. This event occurred because the rainfall also did not change greatly and close to 0 mm/month.

  18. Transboundary radioactive and chemical pollution simulation using an atmospheric/marine predicting system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Telenta, B.; Antic, D.

    2001-01-01

    The atmospheric models can be used to simulate the transport of contaminants in typical accidental cases and for realistic meteorological conditions. Some numerical models for weather forecast can be used for near to real simulations of propagation of radioactive nuclides or classical chemical pollutants to the atmosphere. The various meteorological parameters are taken into account and various meteorological conditions, even complex ones, can be analyzed. The models can be used for very well assessment of the airborne pollution from energy sources and industrial installations, for comparative studies and for safety analysis. This report describes an proposal for a project of the transboundary pollution simulation, that can be used for the East Mediterranean Region. The project is based on the numerical models developed in the in simulating of the Chernobyl accident and similar hypothetical cases. The study is based on an atmospheric models developed in Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Insular Coastal Dynamics (ICoD), Foundation for International Studies, Valeta, Malta

  19. Comparison of mortality prediction models and validation of SAPS II in critically ill burns patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantet, O; Faouzi, M; Brusselaers, N; Vernay, A; Berger, M M

    2016-06-30

    Specific burn outcome prediction scores such as the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Ryan, Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) and revised Baux scores have been extensively studied. Validation studies of the critical care score SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score) have included burns patients but not addressed them as a cohort. The study aimed at comparing their performance in a Swiss burns intensive care unit (ICU) and to observe whether they were affected by a standardized definition of inhalation injury. We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including all consecutive ICU burn admissions (n=492) between 1996 and 2013: 5 epochs were defined by protocol changes. As required for SAPS II calculation, stays burned (TBSA) and inhalation injury (systematic standardized diagnosis since 2006). Study epochs were compared (χ2 test, ANOVA). Score performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. SAPS II performed well (AUC 0.89), particularly in burns burns <40% TBSA. Ryan and BOBI scores were least accurate, as they heavily weight inhalation injury.

  20. HLA Class-II Associated HIV Polymorphisms Predict Escape from CD4+ T Cell Responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan Erdmann

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Antiretroviral therapy, antibody and CD8+ T cell-mediated responses targeting human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1 exert selection pressure on the virus necessitating escape; however, the ability of CD4+ T cells to exert selective pressure remains unclear. Using a computational approach on HIV gag/pol/nef sequences and HLA-II allelic data, we identified 29 HLA-II associated HIV sequence polymorphisms or adaptations (HLA-AP in an African cohort of chronically HIV-infected individuals. Epitopes encompassing the predicted adaptation (AE or its non-adapted (NAE version were evaluated for immunogenicity. Using a CD8-depleted IFN-γ ELISpot assay, we determined that the magnitude of CD4+ T cell responses to the predicted epitopes in controllers was higher compared to non-controllers (p<0.0001. However, regardless of the group, the magnitude of responses to AE was lower as compared to NAE (p<0.0001. CD4+ T cell responses in patients with acute HIV infection (AHI demonstrated poor immunogenicity towards AE as compared to NAE encoded by their transmitted founder virus. Longitudinal data in AHI off antiretroviral therapy demonstrated sequence changes that were biologically confirmed to represent CD4+ escape mutations. These data demonstrate an innovative application of HLA-associated polymorphisms to identify biologically relevant CD4+ epitopes and suggests CD4+ T cells are active participants in driving HIV evolution.

  1. Improving Wind Predictions in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer through Parameter Estimation in a Single-Column Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jared A.; Hacker, Joshua P.; Delle Monache, Luca; Kosović, Branko; Clifton, Andrew; Vandenberghe, Francois; Rodrigo, Javier Sanz

    2016-12-14

    A current barrier to greater deployment of offshore wind turbines is the poor quality of numerical weather prediction model wind and turbulence forecasts over open ocean. The bulk of development for atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization schemes has focused on land, partly due to a scarcity of observations over ocean. The 100-m FINO1 tower in the North Sea is one of the few sources worldwide of atmospheric profile observations from the sea surface to turbine hub height. These observations are crucial to developing a better understanding and modeling of physical processes in the marine ABL. In this study, we use the WRF single column model (SCM), coupled with an ensemble Kalman filter from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), to create 100-member ensembles at the FINO1 location. The goal of this study is to determine the extent to which model parameter estimation can improve offshore wind forecasts.

  2. The Role of the Indian Ocean Sector for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System: Impact of Atmospheric Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

    2017-01-01

    Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 0 deg. N to 25 deg. N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

  3. The role of the Indian Ocean sector for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system: Impact of atmospheric coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

    2017-04-01

    Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30°S-10°S and 0°N-25°N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

  4. Predictive validity of the Hendrich fall risk model II in an acute geriatric unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivziku, Dhurata; Matarese, Maria; Pedone, Claudio

    2011-04-01

    Falls are the most common adverse events reported in acute care hospitals, and older patients are the most likely to fall. The risk of falling cannot be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced through the implementation of a fall prevention program. A major evidence-based intervention to prevent falls has been the use of fall-risk assessment tools. Many tools have been increasingly developed in recent years, but most instruments have not been investigated regarding reliability, validity and clinical usefulness. This study intends to evaluate the predictive validity and inter-rater reliability of Hendrich fall risk model II (HFRM II) in order to identify older patients at risk of falling in geriatric units and recommend its use in clinical practice. A prospective descriptive design was used. The study was carried out in a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital. All over 65 years old patients consecutively admitted to a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital over 8-month period were enrolled. The patients enrolled were screened for the falls risk by nurses with the HFRM II within 24h of admission. The falls occurring during the patient's hospital stay were registered. Inter-rater reliability, area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and time for the administration were evaluated. 179 elderly patients were included. The inter-rater reliability was 0.87 (95% CI 0.71-1.00). The administration time was about 1min. The most frequently reported risk factors were depression, incontinence, vertigo. Sensitivity and specificity were respectively 86% and 43%. The optimal cut-off score for screening at risk patients was 5 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72. The risk factors more strongly associated with falls were confusion and depression. As falls of older patients are a common problem in acute care settings it is necessary that the nurses use specific validate and reliable

  5. FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-02-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited. Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions. Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied. The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was dependent on the composition of the solutes present. For more atmospherically representative higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus

  7. Experimental prediction of severe droughts on seasonal to intra-annual time scales with GFDL High-Resolution Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Z.; Lin, S.

    2011-12-01

    Regional heat waves and drought have major economic and societal impacts on regional and even global scales. For example, during and following the 2010-2011 La Nina period, severe droughts have been reported in many places around the world including China, the southern US, and the east Africa, causing severe hardship in China and famine in east Africa. In this study, we investigate the feasibility and predictability of severe spring-summer draught events, 3 to 6 months in advance with the 25-km resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM), which is built as a seamless weather-climate model, capable of long-term climate simulations as well as skillful seasonal predictions (e.g., Chen and Lin 2011, GRL). We adopted a similar methodology and the same (HiRAM) model as in Chen and Lin (2011), which is used successfully for seasonal hurricane predictions. A series of initialized 7-month forecasts starting from Dec 1 are performed each year (5 members each) during the past decade (2000-2010). We will then evaluate the predictability of the severe drought events during this period by comparing model predictions vs. available observations. To evaluate the predictive skill, in this preliminary report, we will focus on the anomalies of precipitation, sea-level-pressure, and 500-mb height. These anomalies will be computed as the individual model prediction minus the mean climatology obtained by an independent AMIP-type "simulation" using observed SSTs (rather than using predictive SSTs in the forecasts) from the same model.

  8. [Prediction of the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by NIR crude oil rapid assay].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan-Bin; Hu, Yu-Zhong; Li, Wen-Le; Zhang, Wei-Song; Zhou, Feng; Luo, Zhi

    2014-10-01

    In the present paper, based on the fast evaluation technique of near infrared, a method to predict the yield of atmos- pheric and vacuum line was developed, combined with H/CAMS software. Firstly, the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy method for rapidly determining the true boiling point of crude oil was developed. With commercially available crude oil spectroscopy da- tabase and experiments test from Guangxi Petrochemical Company, calibration model was established and a topological method was used as the calibration. The model can be employed to predict the true boiling point of crude oil. Secondly, the true boiling point based on NIR rapid assay was converted to the side-cut product yield of atmospheric/vacuum distillation unit by H/CAMS software. The predicted yield and the actual yield of distillation product for naphtha, diesel, wax and residual oil were compared in a 7-month period. The result showed that the NIR rapid crude assay can predict the side-cut product yield accurately. The near infrared analytic method for predicting yield has the advantages of fast analysis, reliable results, and being easy to online operate, and it can provide elementary data for refinery planning optimization and crude oil blending.

  9. A Kinetic Model for Predicting the Relative Humidity in Modified Atmosphere Packaging and Its Application in Lentinula edodes Packages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-xin Lu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Adjusting and controlling the relative humidity (RH inside package is crucial for ensuring the quality of modified atmosphere packaging (MAP of fresh produce. In this paper, an improved kinetic model for predicting the RH in MAP was developed. The model was based on heat exchange and gases mass transport phenomena across the package, gases heat convection inside the package, and mass and heat balances accounting for the respiration and transpiration behavior of fresh produce. Then the model was applied to predict the RH in MAP of fresh Lentinula edodes (one kind of Chinese mushroom. The model equations were solved numerically using Adams-Moulton method to predict the RH in model packages. In general, the model predictions agreed well with the experimental data, except that the model predictions were slightly high in the initial period. The effect of the initial gas composition on the RH in packages was notable. In MAP of lower oxygen and higher carbon dioxide concentrations, the ascending rate of the RH was reduced, and the RH inside packages was saturated slowly during storage. The influence of the initial gas composition on the temperature inside package was not much notable.

  10. Demonstration of Linked UAV Observations and Atmospheric Model Predictions in Chem/Bio Attack Response

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Davidson, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    ... meteorological data, and the means for linking the UAV data to real-time dispersion prediction. The primary modeling effort focused on an adaptation of the 'Wind On Constant Streamline Surfaces...

  11. Prediction of the oscillator strengths for the electric dipole transitions in Th II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dembczynski, Jerzy [Institute of Control and Information Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Poznan University of Technology, Piotrowo 3A, 60-965 Poznan (Poland); Ruczkowski, Jaroslaw; Elantkowska, Magdalena [Laboratory of Quantum Engineering and Metrology, Faculty of Technical Physics, Poznan University of Technology, Nieszawska 13B, 60-965 Poznan (Poland)

    2014-07-01

    In order to parametrize the oscillator strength, the matrix of angular coefficients of the possible transitions in multiconfiguration system were calculated. In the odd and even configuration systems, the fine structure eigenvectors for both parities were obtained, using our semiempirical method, which taken into account also the second order effects, resulting from the excitations from electronic closed shells to open shells and from open shells to empty shell. The correctness of the fine structure wave functions was verified by the comparison of calculated and experimental hyperfine structure constants for Th II available in the literature. The least square fit to experimental values for some transitions allow to obtain the values of radial parameters and predict the oscillator strengths values for all possible transitions from the levels under consideration. These calculations are necessary for the design of the nuclear frequency standard based on the thorium ion.

  12. Solar Atmosphere to Earth's Surface: Long Lead Time dB/dt Predictions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, D. T.; Manchester, W.; Savani, N.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Jin, M.; Toth, G.; Liemohn, M. W.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    The future of space weather prediction depends on the community's ability to predict L1 values from observations of the solar atmosphere, which can yield hours of lead time. While both empirical and physics-based L1 forecast methods exist, it is not yet known if this nascent capability can translate to skilled dB/dt forecasts at the Earth's surface. This paper shows results for the first forecast-quality, solar-atmosphere-to-Earth's-surface dB/dt predictions. Two methods are used to predict solar wind and IMF conditions at L1 for several real-world coronal mass ejection events. The first method is an empirical and observationally based system to estimate the plasma characteristics. The magnetic field predictions are based on the Bz4Cast system which assumes that the CME has a cylindrical flux rope geometry locally around Earth's trajectory. The remaining plasma parameters of density, temperature and velocity are estimated from white-light coronagraphs via a variety of triangulation methods and forward based modelling. The second is a first-principles-based approach that combines the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL) model with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). EEGGL specifies parameters for the Gibson-Low flux rope such that it erupts, driving a CME in the coronal model that reproduces coronagraph observations and propagates to 1AU. The resulting solar wind predictions are used to drive the operational Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for geospace. Following the configuration used by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, this setup couples the BATS-R-US global magnetohydromagnetic model to the Rice Convection Model (RCM) ring current model and a height-integrated ionosphere electrodynamics model. The long lead time predictions of dB/dt are compared to model results that are driven by L1 solar wind observations. Both are compared to real-world observations from surface magnetometers at a variety of geomagnetic latitudes

  13. Statistical prediction of far-field wind-turbine noise, with probabilistic characterization of atmospheric stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kelly, Mark C.; Barlas, Emre; Sogachev, Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Here we provide statistical low-order characterization of noise propagation from a single wind turbine, as affected by mutually interacting turbine wake and environmental conditions. This is accomplished via a probabilistic model, applied to an ensemble of atmospheric conditions based upon......; the latter solves Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations of momentum and temperature, including the effects of stability and the ABL depth, along with the drag due to the wind turbine. Sound levels are found to be highest downwind for modestly stable conditions not atypical of mid-latitude climates...

  14. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin

    2013-01-01

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inven...

  15. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2007-01-01

    the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance...... of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC) and three mouse H2-IA alleles. RESULTS: The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation...... between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR), we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance...

  16. The Mars Crustal Magnetic Field Control of Plasma Boundary Locations and Atmospheric Loss: MHD Prediction and Comparison with MAVEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xiaohua; Ma, Yingjuan; Masunaga, Kei; Dong, Chuanfei; Brain, David; Halekas, Jasper; Lillis, Robert; Jakosky, Bruce M.; Connerney, Jack; Grebowsky, Joseph; hide

    2017-01-01

    We present results from a global Mars time-dependent MHD simulation under constant solar wind and solar radiation impact considering inherent magnetic field variations due to continuous planetary rotation. We calculate the 3-D shapes and locations of the bow shock (BS) and the induced magnetospheric boundary (IMB) and then examine their dynamic changes with time. We develop a physics-based, empirical algorithm to effectively summarize the multidimensional crustal field distribution. It is found that by organizing the model results using this new approach, the Mars crustal field shows a clear, significant influence on both the IMB and the BS. Specifically, quantitative relationships have been established between the field distribution and the mean boundary distances and the cross-section areas in the terminator plane for both of the boundaries. The model-predicted relationships are further verified by the observations from the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. Our analysis shows that the boundaries are collectively affected by the global crustal field distribution, which, however, cannot be simply parameterized by a local parameter like the widely used subsolar longitude. Our calculations show that the variability of the intrinsic crustal field distribution in Mars-centered Solar Orbital itself may account for approx.60% of the variation in total atmospheric loss, when external drivers are static. It is found that the crustal field has not only a shielding effect for atmospheric loss but also an escape-fostering effect by positively affecting the transterminator ion flow cross-section area.

  17. Analysis on the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu

    2012-01-01

    JAEA has been developing a new prediction system of comprehensive movement, SPEEDI-MP (SPEEDI Multi-model Package), which can treat continuously and strictly with the migration behavior of radioactive materials at atmosphere, sea, and land region. JAEA has been further promoting the detail analysis of atmospheric migration of radioactive materials dispersed by an accident. Then, using a part of this system, the atmospheric-diversion prediction system, WSPEEDI-II, the atmospheric diversion mass and the atmospheric diffusion analysis were carried out. This issue reports the summary. (M.H.)

  18. Accuracy and Predictability of PANC-3 Scoring System over APACHE II in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathnakar, Surag Kajoor; Vishnu, Vikram Hubbanageri; Muniyappa, Shridhar; Prasath, Arun

    2017-02-01

    Acute Pancreatitis (AP) is one of the common conditions encountered in the emergency room. The course of the disease ranges from mild form to severe acute form. Most of these episodes are mild and spontaneously subsiding within 3 to 5 days. In contrast, Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) occurring in around 15-20% of all cases, mortality can range between 10 to 85% across various centres and countries. In such a situation we need an indicator which can predict the outcome of an attack, as severe or mild, as early as possible and such an indicator should be sensitive and specific enough to trust upon. PANC-3 scoring is such a scoring system in predicting the outcome of an attack of AP. To assess the accuracy and predictability of PANC-3 scoring system over APACHE II in predicting severity in an attack of AP. This prospective study was conducted on 82 patients admitted with the diagnosis of pancreatitis. Investigations to evaluate PANC-3 and APACHE II were done on all the patients and the PANC-3 and APACHE II score was calculated. PANC-3 score has a sensitivity of 82.6% and specificity of 77.9%, the test had a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.59 and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.92. Sensitivity of APACHE II in predicting SAP was 91.3% and specificity was 96.6% with PPV of 0.91, NPV was 0.96. Our study shows that PANC-3 can be used to predict the severity of pancreatitis as efficiently as APACHE II. The interpretation of PANC-3 does not need expertise and can be applied at the time of admission which is an advantage when compared to classical scoring systems.

  19. The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also

  20. The Value of the SYNTAX Score II in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Nicola; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Jiménez-Quevedo, Pilar; Biagioni, Corina; Salinas, Pablo; Aldazábal, Andrés; Cerrato, Enrico; Gonzalo, Nieves; Del Trigo, María; Núñez-Gil, Iván; Fernández-Ortiz, Antonio; Macaya, Carlos; Escaned, Javier

    2017-11-27

    The predictive value of the SYNTAX score (SS) for clinical outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is very limited and could potentially be improved by the combination of anatomic and clinical variables, the SS-II. We aimed to evaluate the value of the SS-II in predicting outcomes in patients undergoing TAVI. A total of 402 patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis undergoing transfemoral TAVI were included. Preprocedural TAVI angiograms were reviewed and the SS-I and SS-II were calculated using the SS algorithms. Patients were stratified in 3 groups according to SS-II tertiles. The coprimary endpoints were all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite of all-cause death, cerebrovascular event, or myocardial infarction at 1 year. Increased SS-II was associated with higher 30-day mortality (P=.036) and major bleeding (P=.015). The 1-year risk of death and MACE was higher among patients in the 3rd SS-II tertile (HR, 2.60; P=.002 and HR, 2.66; P<.001) and was similar among patients in the 2nd tertile (HR, 1.27; P=.507 and HR, 1.05; P=.895) compared with patients in the 1st tertile. The highest SS-II tertile was an independent predictor of long-term mortality (P=.046) and MACE (P=.001). The SS-II seems more suited to predict clinical outcomes in patients undergoing TAVI than the SS-I. Increased SS-II was associated with poorer clinical outcomes at 1 and 4 years post-TAVI, independently of the presence of coronary artery disease. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Prediction of individual mandibular changes induced by functional jaw orthopedics followed by fixed appliances in Class II patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franchi, Lorenzo; Baccetti, Tiziano

    2006-11-01

    To identify pretreatment cephalometric variables for the prediction of individual mandibular outcomes of functional jaw orthopedics (FJO) followed by fixed appliances in Class II patients treated at the peak in mandibular growth. The study was performed on 51 subjects (24 females, 27 males) with Class II malocclusion. First-phase therapy was accomplished with a twin block in 16 subjects, a stainless steel crown Herbst in 15 subjects, and an acrylic splint Herbst in 20 subjects. Lateral cephalograms were available at the start of treatment with FJO and at the completion of fixed appliance therapy. All subjects received FJO at the peak in mandibular growth (CS 3 at T1). Individual responsiveness to Class II treatment including FJO was defined on the basis of the T2-T1 increment in total mandibular length (Co-Gn) when compared with untreated Class II subjects. Discriminant analysis identified a single predictive parameter (Co-Go-Me degrees) with a classification power of 80%. Pretreatment vertical and sagittal parameters were not able to improve the prediction based upon the mandibular angle. A Class II patient at the peak in skeletal maturation (CS 3) with a pretreatment Co-Go-Me degrees smaller than 125.5 degrees is expected to respond favorably to treatment including FJO. A Class II patient at CS 3 with a pretreatment value for Co-Go-Me degrees greater than 125.5 degrees is expected to respond poorly to treatment including FJO.

  2. NKS NordRisk II: Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith Korsholm, U.; Havskov Soerensen, J.; Astrup, P.; Lauritzen, B.

    2011-04-01

    The present atlas has been developed within the NKS/NordRisk-II project 'Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe'. The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from 16 nuclear risk sites on the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric dispersion model calculations cover a period of 30 days following each release to ensure almost complete deposition of the dispersed material. The atlas contains maps showing the total deposition and time-integrated air concentration of Cs-137 and I-131 based on three years of meteorological data spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and corresponding time evolution of the ensemble mean atmospheric dispersion. (Author)

  3. NKS NordRisk II: Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith Korsholm, U.; Havskov Soerensen, J. (Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen (Denmark)); Astrup, P.; Lauritzen, B. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Radiation Research Div., Roskilde (Denmark))

    2011-04-15

    The present atlas has been developed within the NKS/NordRisk-II project 'Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe'. The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from 16 nuclear risk sites on the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric dispersion model calculations cover a period of 30 days following each release to ensure almost complete deposition of the dispersed material. The atlas contains maps showing the total deposition and time-integrated air concentration of Cs-137 and I-131 based on three years of meteorological data spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and corresponding time evolution of the ensemble mean atmospheric dispersion. (Author)

  4. The prediction of creep damage in Type 347 weld metal: part II creep fatigue tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spindler, M.W.

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of creep damage under conditions of strain control are often carried out using either a time fraction approach or a ductility exhaustion approach. In part I of this paper the rupture strength and creep ductility data for a Type 347 weld metal were fitted to provide the material properties that are used to calculate creep damage. Part II of this paper examines whether the time fraction approach or the ductility exhaustion approach gives the better predictions of creep damage in creep-fatigue tests on the same Type 347 weld metal. In addition, a new creep damage model, which was developed by removing some of the simplifying assumptions that are made in the ductility exhaustion approach, was used. This new creep damage model is a function of the strain rate, stress and temperature and was derived from creep and constant strain rate test data using a reverse modelling technique (see part I of this paper). It is shown that the new creep damage model gives better predictions of creep damage in the creep-fatigue tests than the time fraction and the ductility exhaustion approaches

  5. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2007-07-04

    Antigen presenting cells (APCs) sample the extra cellular space and present peptides from here to T helper cells, which can be activated if the peptides are of foreign origin. The peptides are presented on the surface of the cells in complex with major histocompatibility class II (MHC II) molecules. Identification of peptides that bind MHC II molecules is thus a key step in rational vaccine design and developing methods for accurate prediction of the peptide:MHC interactions play a central role in epitope discovery. The MHC class II binding groove is open at both ends making the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC) and three mouse H2-IA alleles. The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR), we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance by favoring binding registers with a minimum PFR length of two amino acids. Visualizing the binding motif as obtained by the SMM-align and TEPITOPE methods highlights a series of fundamental discrepancies between the two predicted motifs. For the DRB1*1302 allele for instance, the TEPITOPE method favors basic amino acids at most anchor positions, whereas the SMM-align method identifies a preference for hydrophobic or neutral amino acids at the anchors. The SMM-align method was shown to outperform other

  6. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lund Ole

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Antigen presenting cells (APCs sample the extra cellular space and present peptides from here to T helper cells, which can be activated if the peptides are of foreign origin. The peptides are presented on the surface of the cells in complex with major histocompatibility class II (MHC II molecules. Identification of peptides that bind MHC II molecules is thus a key step in rational vaccine design and developing methods for accurate prediction of the peptide:MHC interactions play a central role in epitope discovery. The MHC class II binding groove is open at both ends making the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC and three mouse H2-IA alleles. Results The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR, we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance by favoring binding registers with a minimum PFR length of two amino acids. Visualizing the binding motif as obtained by the SMM-align and TEPITOPE methods highlights a series of fundamental discrepancies between the two predicted motifs. For the DRB1*1302 allele for instance, the TEPITOPE method favors basic amino acids at most anchor positions, whereas the SMM-align method identifies a preference for hydrophobic or neutral amino acids at the anchors. Conclusion

  7. NN-align. An artificial neural network-based alignment algorithm for MHC class II peptide binding prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lund Ole

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The major histocompatibility complex (MHC molecule plays a central role in controlling the adaptive immune response to infections. MHC class I molecules present peptides derived from intracellular proteins to cytotoxic T cells, whereas MHC class II molecules stimulate cellular and humoral immunity through presentation of extracellularly derived peptides to helper T cells. Identification of which peptides will bind a given MHC molecule is thus of great importance for the understanding of host-pathogen interactions, and large efforts have been placed in developing algorithms capable of predicting this binding event. Results Here, we present a novel artificial neural network-based method, NN-align that allows for simultaneous identification of the MHC class II binding core and binding affinity. NN-align is trained using a novel training algorithm that allows for correction of bias in the training data due to redundant binding core representation. Incorporation of information about the residues flanking the peptide-binding core is shown to significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The method is evaluated on a large-scale benchmark consisting of six independent data sets covering 14 human MHC class II alleles, and is demonstrated to outperform other state-of-the-art MHC class II prediction methods. Conclusion The NN-align method is competitive with the state-of-the-art MHC class II peptide binding prediction algorithms. The method is publicly available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCII-2.0.

  8. Zn(II, Mn(II and Sr(II Behavior in a Natural Carbonate Reservoir System. Part I: Impact of Salinity, Initial pH and Initial Zn(II Concentration in Atmospheric Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Auffray B.

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The sorption of inorganic elements on carbonate minerals is well known in strictly controlled conditions which limit the impact of other phenomena such as dissolution and/or precipitation. In this study, we evidence the behavior of Zn(II (initially in solution and two trace elements, Mn(II and Sr(II (released by carbonate dissolution in the context of a leakage from a CO2 storage site. The initial pH chosen are either equal to the pH of the water-CO2 equilibrium (~ 2.98 or equal to the pH of the water-CO2-calcite system (~ 4.8 in CO2 storage conditions. From this initial influx of liquid, saturated or not with respect to calcite, the batch experiments evolve freely to their equilibrium, as it would occur in a natural context after a perturbation. The batch experiments are carried out on two natural carbonates (from Lavoux and St-Emilion with PCO2 = 10−3.5 bar, with different initial conditions ([Zn(II]i from 10−4 to 10−6 M, either with pure water or 100 g/L NaCl brine. The equilibrium regarding calcite dissolution is confirmed in all experiments, while the zinc sorption evidenced does not always correspond to the two-step mechanism described in the literature. A preferential sorption of about 10% of the concentration is evidenced for Mn(II in aqueous experiments, while Sr(II is more sorbed in saline conditions. This study also shows that this preferential sorption, depending on the salinity, is independent of the natural carbonate considered. Then, the simulations carried out with PHREEQC show that experiments and simulations match well concerning the equilibrium of dissolution and the sole zinc sorption, with log KZn(II ~ 2 in pure water and close to 4 in high salinity conditions. When the simulations were possible, the log K values for Mn(II and Sr(II were much different from those in the literature obtained by sorption in controlled conditions. It is shown that a new conceptual model regarding multiple Trace Elements (TE sorption is

  9. South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available . 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean...

  10. Model predictions for atmospheric air breakdown by radio-frequency excitation in large gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, H. K.; Mankowski, J.; Dickens, J. C.; Neuber, A. A.; Joshi, R. P.

    2017-07-01

    The behavior of the breakdown electric field versus frequency (DC to 100 MHz) for different gap lengths has been studied numerically at atmospheric pressure. Unlike previous reports, the focus here is on much larger gap lengths in the 1-5 cm range. A numerical analysis, with transport coefficients obtained from Monte Carlo calculations, is used to ascertain the electric field thresholds at which the growth and extinction of the electron population over time are balanced. Our analysis is indicative of a U-shaped frequency dependence, lower breakdown fields with increasing gap lengths, and trends qualitatively similar to the frequency-dependent field behavior for microgaps. The low frequency value of ˜34 kV/cm for a 1 cm gap approaches the reported DC Paschen limit.

  11. Prediction of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) Score Using Acoustic Measurements in a Sample of Iium Engineering Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fikri Zanil, Muhamad; Nur Wahidah Nik Hashim, Nik; Azam, Huda

    2017-11-01

    Psychiatrist currently relies on questionnaires and interviews for psychological assessment. These conservative methods often miss true positives and might lead to death, especially in cases where a patient might be experiencing suicidal predisposition but was only diagnosed as major depressive disorder (MDD). With modern technology, an assessment tool might aid psychiatrist with a more accurate diagnosis and thus hope to reduce casualty. This project will explore on the relationship between speech features of spoken audio signal (reading) in Bahasa Malaysia with the Beck Depression Inventory scores. The speech features used in this project were Power Spectral Density (PSD), Mel-frequency Ceptral Coefficients (MFCC), Transition Parameter, formant and pitch. According to analysis, the optimum combination of speech features to predict BDI-II scores include PSD, MFCC and Transition Parameters. The linear regression approach with sequential forward/backward method was used to predict the BDI-II scores using reading speech. The result showed 0.4096 mean absolute error (MAE) for female reading speech. For male, the BDI-II scores successfully predicted 100% less than 1 scores difference with MAE of 0.098437. A prediction system called Depression Severity Evaluator (DSE) was developed. The DSE managed to predict one out of five subjects. Although the prediction rate was low, the system precisely predict the score within the maximum difference of 4.93 for each person. This demonstrates that the scores are not random numbers.

  12. Pol II promoter prediction using characteristic 4-mer motifs: a machine learning approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shoyaib Mohammad

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Eukaryotic promoter prediction using computational analysis techniques is one of the most difficult jobs in computational genomics that is essential for constructing and understanding genetic regulatory networks. The increased availability of sequence data for various eukaryotic organisms in recent years has necessitated for better tools and techniques for the prediction and analysis of promoters in eukaryotic sequences. Many promoter prediction methods and tools have been developed to date but they have yet to provide acceptable predictive performance. One obvious criteria to improve on current methods is to devise a better system for selecting appropriate features of promoters that distinguish them from non-promoters. Secondly improved performance can be achieved by enhancing the predictive ability of the machine learning algorithms used. Results In this paper, a novel approach is presented in which 128 4-mer motifs in conjunction with a non-linear machine-learning algorithm utilising a Support Vector Machine (SVM are used to distinguish between promoter and non-promoter DNA sequences. By applying this approach to plant, Drosophila, human, mouse and rat sequences, the classification model has showed 7-fold cross-validation percentage accuracies of 83.81%, 94.82%, 91.25%, 90.77% and 82.35% respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity value of 0.86 and 0.90 for plant; 0.96 and 0.92 for Drosophila; 0.88 and 0.92 for human; 0.78 and 0.84 for mouse and 0.82 and 0.80 for rat demonstrate that this technique is less prone to false positive results and exhibits better performance than many other tools. Moreover, this model successfully identifies location of promoter using TATA weight matrix. Conclusion The high sensitivity and specificity indicate that 4-mer frequencies in conjunction with supervised machine-learning methods can be beneficial in the identification of RNA pol II promoters comparative to other methods. This

  13. A Study of Subseasonal Predictability of the Atmospheric Circulation Low-frequency Modes based on SL-AV forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruglova, Ekaterina; Kulikova, Irina; Khan, Valentina; Tischenko, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The subseasonal predictability of low-frequency modes and the atmospheric circulation regimes is investigated based on the using of outputs from global Semi-Lagrangian (SL-AV) model of the Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Science. Teleconnection indices (AO, WA, EA, NAO, EU, WP, PNA) are used as the quantitative characteristics of low-frequency variability to identify zonal and meridional flow regimes with focus on control distribution of high impact weather patterns in the Northern Eurasia. The predictability of weekly and monthly averaged indices is estimated by the methods of diagnostic verification of forecast and reanalysis data covering the hindcast period, and also with the use of the recommended WMO quantitative criteria. Characteristics of the low frequency variability have been discussed. Particularly, it is revealed that the meridional flow regimes are reproduced by SL-AV for summer season better comparing to winter period. It is shown that the model's deterministic forecast (ensemble mean) skill at week 1 (days 1-7) is noticeably better than that of climatic forecasts. The decrease of skill scores at week 2 (days 8-14) and week 3( days 15-21) is explained by deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. It was noticed the slightly improvement of the skill of model at week 4 (days 22-28), when the condition of atmosphere is more determined by the flow of energy from the outside. The reliability of forecasts of monthly (days 1-30) averaged indices is comparable to that at week 1 (days 1-7). Numerical experiments demonstrated that the forecast accuracy can be improved (thus the limit of practical predictability can be extended) through the using of probabilistic approach based on ensemble forecasts. It is shown that the quality of forecasts of the regimes of circulation like blocking is higher, than that of zonal flow.

  14. TransCom N2O model inter-comparison, Part II : Atmospheric inversion estimates of N2O emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thompson, R. L.; Ishijima, K.; Saikawa, E.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Patra, P. K.; Bergamaschi, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Krummel, P. B.; Vermeulen, A.; Tohjima, Y.; Jordan, A.; Haszpra, L.; Steinbacher, M.; Van Der Laan, S.; Aalto, T.; Meinhardt, F.; Popa, Maria Elena; Moncrieff, J.; Bousquet, P.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines N2O emission estimates from 5 different atmospheric inversion frameworks. The 5 frameworks differ in the choice of atmospheric transport model, meteorological data, prior uncertainties and inversion method but use the same prior emissions and observation dataset. The mean

  15. Prediction of Mechanism and Thermochemical Properties of O3 + H2S Atmospheric Reaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Vahedpour

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ozone and hydrogen sulfide reaction mechanism including a complex was studied at the B3LYP/6-311++G(3df,3pd and CCSD/6-311++G(3df,3pd//B3LYP/6-311++G(3df,3pd levels of computation. The interaction between sulfur atom of hydrogen sulfide and terminal oxygen atom of ozone produces a stable H2S-O3 complex with no barrier. With the decomposition of this complex, four possible product channels have been found. Intrinsic reaction coordinate, topological analyses of atom in molecule, and vibrational frequency calculation have been used to confirm the suggested mechanism. Thermodynamic data at T = 298.15 K and the atmospheric pressure have been calculated. The results show that the production of H2O + SO2 is the main reaction channel with ΔG° = −645.84 kJ/mol. Rate constants of H2S + O3 reaction show two product channels, SO2 + H2O and HSO + HOO, which compete with each other based on the temperature.

  16. Linear and regressive stochastic models for prediction of daily maximum ozone values at Mexico City atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bravo, J. L [Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Nava, M. M [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gay, C [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2001-07-01

    We developed a procedure to forecast, with 2 or 3 hours, the daily maximum of surface ozone concentrations. It involves the adjustment of Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average (ARIMA) models to daily ozone maximum concentrations at 10 monitoring atmospheric stations in Mexico City during one-year period. A one-day forecast is made and it is adjusted with the meteorological and solar radiation information acquired during the first 3 hours before the occurrence of the maximum value. The relative importance for forecasting of the history of the process and of meteorological conditions is evaluated. Finally an estimate of the daily probability of exceeding a given ozone level is made. [Spanish] Se aplica un procedimiento basado en la metodologia conocida como ARIMA, para predecir, con 2 o 3 horas de anticipacion, el valor maximo de la concentracion diaria de ozono. Esta basado en el calculo de autorregresiones y promedios moviles aplicados a los valores maximos de ozono superficial provenientes de 10 estaciones de monitoreo atmosferico en la Ciudad de Mexico y obtenidos durante un ano de muestreo. El pronostico para un dia se ajusta con la informacion meteorologica y de radiacion solar correspondiente a un periodo que antecede con al menos tres horas la ocurrencia esperada del valor maximo. Se compara la importancia relativa de la historia del proceso y de las condiciones meteorologicas previas para el pronostico. Finalmente se estima la probabilidad diaria de que un nivel normativo o preestablecido para contingencias de ozono sea rebasado.

  17. Progress and Challenges in Predicting Crop Responses to Atmospheric [CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, J.; Paustian, K.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric [CO2] directly accelerates photosynthesis in C3 crops, and indirectly promotes yields by reducing stomatal conductance and associated water losses in C3 and C4 crops. Several decades of experiments have exposed crops to eCO2 in greenhouses and other enclosures and observed yield increases on the order of 33%. FACE systems were developed in the early 1990s to better replicate open-field growing conditions. Some authors contend that FACE results indicate lower crop yield responses than enclosure studies, while others maintain no significant difference or attribute differences to various methodological factors. The crop CO2 response processes in many crop models were developed using results from enclosure experiments. This work tested the ability of one such model, DayCent, to reproduce crop responses to CO2 enrichment from several FACE experiments. DayCent performed well at simulating yield and transpiration responses in C4 crops, but significantly overestimated yield responses in C3 crops. After adjustment of CO2-response parameters, DayCent was able to reproduce mean yield responses for specific crops. However, crop yield responses from FACE experiments vary widely across years and sites, and likely reflect complex interactions between conditions such as weather, soils, cultivars, and biotic stressors. Further experimental work is needed to identify the secondary variables that explain this variability so that models can more reliably forecast crop yields under climate change. Likewise, CO2 impacts on crop outcomes such as belowground biomass allocation and grain N content have implications for agricultural C fluxes and human nutrition, respectively, but are poorly understood and thus difficult to simulate with confidence.

  18. Turbidity, SOLAR RADIATION - ATMOSPHERIC and other data from ATLANTIS II in the NW Atlantic and South Atlantic Ocean from 1980-08-06 to 1980-09-04 (NODC Accession 9500041)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The water depth, temperature and other nutrient bottle data were collected in NW Atlantic (limit-40 W) from ship ATLANTIS II cruise 107 Leg 10 between August 6, 1980...

  19. Modelling of the long-term fate of pesticide residues in agricultural soils and their surface exchange with the atmosphere: Part II. Projected long-term fate of pesticide residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholtz, M T; Bidleman, T F

    2007-05-01

    In the first part of this paper, a simple coupled dynamic soil-atmosphere model for studying the gaseous exchange of pesticide soil residues with the atmosphere is described and evaluated by comparing model results with published measurements of pesticide concentrations in air and soil. In Part II, the model is used to study the concentration profiles of pesticide residues in both undisturbed and annually tilled agricultural soils. Future trends are estimated for the measured air and soil concentrations of lindane and six highly persistent pesticides (toxaphene, p,p'-DDE, dieldrin, cis- and trans-chlordane and trans-nonachlor) over a twenty-year period due to volatilization and leaching into the deeper soil. Wet deposition and particle associated pesticide deposition (that increase soil residue concentrations) and soil erosion, degradation in the soil (other than for lindane) and run-off in precipitation are not considered in this study. Estimates of the rain deposition fluxes are reported that show that, other than for lindane, net volatilization fluxes greatly exceed rain deposition fluxes. The model shows that the persistent pesticides studied are highly immobile in soil and that loss of these highly persistent residues from the soil is by volatilization rather than leaching into the deeper soil. The soil residue levels of these six pesticides are currently sources of net volatilization to the atmosphere and will remain so for many years. The maximum rate of volatilization from the soil was simulated by setting the atmospheric background concentration to zero; these simulations show that the rates of volatilization will not be significantly increased since soil resistance rather than the atmospheric concentration controls the volatilization rates. Annual tilling of the soils increases the volatilization loss to the atmosphere. Nonetheless, the model predicts that, if only air-soil exchange is considered, more than 76% of current persistent pesticide residues

  20. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies and its application to four recent severe regional drought events in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; LU, G.; He, H.; Wu, Z.; He, J.

    2017-12-01

    Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for seasonal water management. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). It is essentially the synchronous stepwise regression relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI updated daily (SPI3). It is forced with forecasted atmospheric and oceanic variables retrieved from seasonal climate forecast systems, and it can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Simulation and prediction of four severe seasonal regional drought processes in China were forced with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operationally forecasted datasets, respectively. With the help of real-time correction for operational application, model application during four recent severe regional drought events in China revealed that the model is good at development prediction but weak in severity prediction. In addition to weakness in prediction of drought peak, the prediction of drought relief is possible to be predicted as drought recession. This weak performance may be associated with precipitation-causing weather patterns during drought relief. Based on initial virtual analysis on predicted 90-day prospective SPI3 curves, it shows that the 2009/2010 drought in Southwest China and 2014 drought in North China can be predicted and simulated well even for the prospective 1-75 day. In comparison, the prospective 1-45 day may be a feasible and acceptable lead time for simulation and prediction of the 2011 droughts in Southwest China and East China, after which the simulated and predicted developments clearly change.

  1. Evaluation of proposed shallow-land burial sites using the PRESTO-II [Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations] methodology and code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Uslu, I.; Yalcintas, M.G.

    1987-01-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed to evaluate possible doses and risks (health effects) from shallow-land burial sites. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transport from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport and deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. The proposed waste disposal area in Koteyli, Balikesir, Turkey, has been evaluated using the PRESTO-II methodology. The results have been compared to those obtained for the Barnwell, South Carolina, site. Dose estimates for both sites are below regulatory limits, for the release and exposure scenarios considered. The doses for the sites are comparable, with slightly higher estimates obtained for the Turkish site. 7 refs., 1 tab

  2. PREDICTING Lyα AND Mg II FLUXES FROM K AND M DWARFS USING GALAXY EVOLUTION EXPLORER ULTRAVIOLET PHOTOMETRY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shkolnik, Evgenya L.; Rolph, Kristina A.; Peacock, Sarah; Barman, Travis S.

    2014-01-01

    A star's ultraviolet (UV) emission can greatly affect the atmospheric chemistry and physical properties of closely orbiting planets with the potential for severe mass loss. In particular, the Lyα emission line at 1216 Å, which dominates the far-ultraviolet (FUV) spectrum, is a major source of photodissociation of important atmospheric molecules such as water and methane. The intrinsic flux of Lyα, however, cannot be directly measured due to the absorption of neutral hydrogen in the interstellar medium and contamination by geocoronal emission. To date, reconstruction of the intrinsic Lyα line based on Hubble Space Telescope spectra has been accomplished for 46 FGKM nearby stars, 28 of which have also been observed by the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX). Our investigation provides a correlation between published intrinsic Lyα and GALEX far- and near-ultraviolet (NUV) chromospheric fluxes for K and M stars. The negative correlations between the ratio of the Lyα to the GALEX fluxes reveal how the relative strength of Lyα compared to the broadband fluxes weakens as the FUV and NUV excess flux increase. We also correlate GALEX fluxes with the strong NUV Mg II h+k spectral emission lines formed at lower chromospheric temperatures than Lyα. The reported correlations provide estimates of intrinsic Lyα and Mg II fluxes for the thousands of K and M stars in the archived GALEX all-sky surveys. These will constrain new stellar upper atmosphere models for cool stars and provide realistic inputs to models describing exoplanetary photochemistry and atmospheric evolution in the absence of UV spectroscopy

  3. Persistent type II endoleak after EVAR: the predictive value of the AAA thrombus volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallitto, Enrico; Gargiulo, Mauro; Mascoli, Chiara; Freyrie, Antonio; DE Matteis, Massimo; Serra, Carla; Bianchini Massoni, Claudio; Faggioli, Gianluca; Stella, Andrea

    2018-02-01

    Persistent type II endoleaks (ELIIp, ≥6 months) after an endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) can be associated with adverse outcomes. The aims of this study are the evaluation of the incidence of ELIIp, their preoperative morphological predictive features (PMF) and the post-EVAR abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) evolution in the presence of ELIIp. Patients underwent EVAR between 2008 and 2010 were prospectively collected. Cases with ELIIp (group A: AG) were identified. A control group without ELIIp (group B: BG), homogeneous for clinical characteristics, follow-up timing and methods (CTA and/or CEUS at 6.12 months and yearly thereafter) was retrospectively selected. The PMF evaluated by computed-tomography-angiography (CTA) were: AAA-diameter, number and diameter of AAA efferent patent vessels (EPV), AAA-total volume (TV), AAA-thrombus volume (THV) and TV/THV rate (%VR). Volumes were calculated by the dedicated vessels analysis software. AG and BG were compared. The primary endpoint was to evaluate the incidence of ELIIp. Secondary endpoints were to analyze the relation between PMF and ELIIp and to assess the post-EVAR AAA-evolution in the presence of ELIIp. Between 2008 and 2010, 200 patients underwent EVAR to treat AAA electively. An ELIIp was detected in 35cases (17.5%) (AG). Twenty-seven patients (13.5%) were included in BG. An overall of 62 patients (GA+GB) were analyzed. The mean pre-operative AAA diameter and EPV were 58±11.6 mm and 5.5±1.8 mm, respectively. The mean TV and THV were 187±111.5 cc and 82±75 cc, respectively. The median %VR was 42.3%. ELIIp was correlated to EPV≥6 (χ2, p=.015) and %VR AAA growth post-EVAR. ELIIp is a not rare complication and it could require re-interventions. Our data suggest that VEP≥6 or %VT<40% are risk factors for ELIIp. No PMF was able to predict the ELIIp evolution. The relative high rate of re-interventions, could suggest the need of adjunctive/preventing primary procedures in patients at high-risk for ELIIp.

  4. Predicting critical temperatures of iron(II) spin crossover materials: Density functional theory plus U approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yachao, E-mail: yczhang@nano.gznc.edu.cn [Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Computational Nano-Material Science, Guizhou Normal College, Guiyang 550018, Guizhou (China)

    2014-12-07

    A first-principles study of critical temperatures (T{sub c}) of spin crossover (SCO) materials requires accurate description of the strongly correlated 3d electrons as well as much computational effort. This task is still a challenge for the widely used local density or generalized gradient approximations (LDA/GGA) and hybrid functionals. One remedy, termed density functional theory plus U (DFT+U) approach, introduces a Hubbard U term to deal with the localized electrons at marginal computational cost, while treats the delocalized electrons with LDA/GGA. Here, we employ the DFT+U approach to investigate the T{sub c} of a pair of iron(II) SCO molecular crystals (α and β phase), where identical constituent molecules are packed in different ways. We first calculate the adiabatic high spin-low spin energy splitting ΔE{sub HL} and molecular vibrational frequencies in both spin states, then obtain the temperature dependent enthalpy and entropy changes (ΔH and ΔS), and finally extract T{sub c} by exploiting the ΔH/T − T and ΔS − T relationships. The results are in agreement with experiment. Analysis of geometries and electronic structures shows that the local ligand field in the α phase is slightly weakened by the H-bondings involving the ligand atoms and the specific crystal packing style. We find that this effect is largely responsible for the difference in T{sub c} of the two phases. This study shows the applicability of the DFT+U approach for predicting T{sub c} of SCO materials, and provides a clear insight into the subtle influence of the crystal packing effects on SCO behavior.

  5. Size distribution and concentrations of heavy metals in atmospheric aerosols originating from industrial emissions as predicted by the HYSPLIT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F.; Maldonado, Pabla Guerrero; Sanchez de la Campa, Ana M.; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Castell, Nuria; de la Rosa, Jesus D.

    2013-06-01

    This study presents a description of the emission, transport, dispersion, and deposition of heavy metals contained in atmospheric aerosols emitted from a large industrial complex in southern Spain using the HYSPLIT model coupled with high- (MM5) and low-resolution (GDAS) meteorological simulations. The dispersion model was configured to simulate eight size fractions (17 μm) of metals based on direct measurements taken at the industrial emission stacks. Twelve stacks in four plants were studied and the stacks showed considerable differences for both emission fluxes and size ranges of metals. We model the dispersion of six major metals; Cr, Co, Ni, La, Zn, and Mo, which represent 77% of the total mass of the 43 measured elements. The prediction shows that the modeled industrial emissions produce an enrichment of heavy metals by a factor of 2-5 for local receptor sites when compared to urban and rural background areas in Spain. The HYSPLIT predictions based on the meteorological fields from MM5 show reasonable consistence with the temporal evolution of concentrations of Cr, Co, and Ni observed at three sites downwind of the industrial area. The magnitude of concentrations of metals at two receptors was underestimated for both MM5 (by a factor of 2-3) and GDAS (by a factor of 4-5) meteorological runs. The model prediction shows that heavy metal pollution from industrial emissions in this area is dominated by the ultra-fine (<0.66 μm) and fine (<2.5 μm) size fractions.

  6. Coordination-driven self-assembly of a novel carbonato-bridged heteromolecular neutral nickel(II) triangle by atmospheric CO2 fixation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Pampa; Drew, Michael G B; Estrader, Marta; Ghosh, Ashutosh

    2008-09-01

    Formation of a quasi-symmetrical mu 3-carbonato-bridged self-assembled heteromolecular triangle of Ni(II), [(mu 3-CO 3){Ni 2(salmeNH) 2(NCS) 2}{Ni(salmeNH 2) 2].Et 2O.H 2O (HsalmeNH = 2-[(3-methylamino-propylimino)-methyl]-phenol) involves atmospheric CO 2 uptake in a neutral medium, by spontaneous self-reorganization of the starting mononuclear Ni(II)-Schiff-base complex, [Ni(salmeNH) 2]. The environment around Ni(II) in two of the subunits is different from the third one. The starting complex, [Ni(salmeNH) 2], and one of the possible intermediate species, [Ni(salmeNH 2) 2(NCS) 2], which has a very similar coordination environment to that in the third Ni(II) center, have been characterized structurally. A plausible mechanism for the formation of such a triangle has also been proposed. The compound shows a very strong antiferromagnetic coupling. Fit as a regular triangular arrangement gave J = -53.1, g = 2.24, and R = 1.5 x 10 (-4).

  7. Impact of Soil Moisture Assimilation on Land Surface Model Spin-Up and Coupled LandAtmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Lawston, P.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in satellite monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle have led to a concerted effort to assimilate soil moisture observations from various platforms into offline land surface models (LSMs). One principal but still open question is that of the ability of land data assimilation (LDA) to improve LSM initial conditions for coupled short-term weather prediction. In this study, the impact of assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals on coupled WRF Model forecasts is examined during the summers of dry (2006) and wet (2007) surface conditions in the southern Great Plains. LDA is carried out using NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Noah LSM through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The impacts of LDA on the 1) soil moisture and soil temperature initial conditions for WRF, 2) land-atmosphere coupling characteristics, and 3) ambient weather of the coupled LIS-WRF simulations are then assessed. Results show that impacts of soil moisture LDA during the spin-up can significantly modify LSM states and fluxes, depending on regime and season. Results also indicate that the use of seasonal cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) is more advantageous compared to the traditional annual CDF bias correction strategies. LDA performs consistently regardless of atmospheric forcing applied, with greater improvements seen when using coarser, global forcing products. Downstream impacts on coupled simulations vary according to the strength of the LDA impact at the initialization, where significant modifications to the soil moisture flux- PBL-ambient weather process chain are observed. Overall, this study demonstrates potential for future, higher-resolution soil moisture assimilation applications in weather and climate research.

  8. Preparing for Exascale: Towards convection-permitting, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinzeller, Dominikus; Duda, Michael G.; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    With strong financial and political support from national and international initiatives, exascale computing is projected for the end of this decade. Energy requirements and physical limitations imply the use of accelerators and the scaling out to orders of magnitudes larger numbers of cores then today to achieve this milestone. In order to fully exploit the capabilities of these Exascale computing systems, existing applications need to undergo significant development. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric core, an ocean core, a land-ice core and a sea-ice core. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. Here, we present work towards the application of the atmospheric core (MPAS-A) on current and future high performance computing systems for problems at extreme scale. In particular, we address the issue of massively parallel I/O by extending the model to support the highly scalable SIONlib library. Using global uniform meshes with a convection-permitting resolution of 2-3km, we demonstrate the ability of MPAS-A to scale out to half a million cores while maintaining a high parallel efficiency. We also demonstrate the potential benefit of a hybrid parallelisation of the code (MPI/OpenMP) on the latest generation of Intel's Many Integrated Core Architecture, the Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing.

  9. PREDICTION OF ATMOSPHERIC AIR POLLUTION BY EMISSIONS OF MOTOR TRANSPORT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CHEMICAL TRANSFORMATION OF HARMFUL SUBSTANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Biliaiev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Development of 3D numerical models, which allow us to calculate air pollution process from road transport emissions based on chemical transformation of pollutants. Creating numerical models, which would give the opportunity to predict the level of air pollution in urban areas. Methodology. To address the evaluation of the air pollution problem of emissions of vehicles the equations of aerodynamics and mass transfer were used. In order to solve differential equations of aerodynamics and mass transfer the finite difference methods are used. For the numerical integration of the equation for the velocity potential the method of conditional approximation was applied. The equation for the velocity potential written in difference form, is being split into two equations, and at each step of splitting the unknown value of the potential speed is determined by the explicit scheme of running account and the difference scheme itself is implicit. For the numerical integration of the equation of dispersion of emissions in the atmosphere is used implicit alternating-triangular difference splitting scheme. Emissions from the road are simulated by a series of point sources of a given intensity. The developed numerical models are the basis of established software package.Findings. There were developed 3D numerical models, which belong to the class «diagnostic models». These models take into account the main physical factors affecting the process of dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere when emissions from road transport taking into account the chemical transformation of pollutants. On the basis of the constructed numerical models a computational experiment to assess the level of air pollution in the street was carried out. Originality. Numerical models that allow you to calculate the 3D aerodynamic of wind flow in urban areas and the process of mass transfer of emissions from the road were developed. The models make it possible to account the

  10. Predicting top-of-atmosphere radiance for arbitrary viewing geometries from the visible to thermal infrared: generalization to arbitrary average scene temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florio, Christopher J.; Cota, Steve A.; Gaffney, Stephanie K.

    2010-08-01

    In a companion paper presented at this conference we described how The Aerospace Corporation's Parameterized Image Chain Analysis & Simulation SOftware (PICASSO) may be used in conjunction with a limited number of runs of AFRL's MODTRAN4 radiative transfer code, to quickly predict the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance received in the visible through midwave IR (MWIR) by an earth viewing sensor, for any arbitrary combination of solar and sensor elevation angles. The method is particularly useful for large-scale scene simulations where each pixel could have a unique value of reflectance/emissivity and temperature, making the run-time required for direct prediction via MODTRAN4 prohibitive. In order to be self-consistent, the method described requires an atmospheric model (defined, at a minimum, as a set of vertical temperature, pressure and water vapor profiles) that is consistent with the average scene temperature. MODTRAN4 provides only six model atmospheres, ranging from sub-arctic winter to tropical conditions - too few to cover with sufficient temperature resolution the full range of average scene temperatures that might be of interest. Model atmospheres consistent with intermediate temperature values can be difficult to come by, and in any event, their use would be too cumbersome for use in trade studies involving a large number of average scene temperatures. In this paper we describe and assess a method for predicting TOA radiance for any arbitrary average scene temperature, starting from only a limited number of model atmospheres.

  11. [Role of angiotensin II receptor type 2 in predicting biochemical recurrence in the treatment of prostate cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chibichyan, M B; Kogan, M I; Chernogubova, E A; Pavlenko, I A; Matishov, D G

    2016-12-01

    To identify markers for predicting aggressive forms of prostate cancer. The study retrospectively evaluated expression of angiotensin II type 2 receptors (AT2-R) in prostate needle biopsy tissue from patients with and without biochemical recurrence after combined hormone and radiation therapy. The study findings showed that low expression of AT2-R in prostate tissue was associated with a high risk of biochemical recurrence. The data on the nature of AT2-R expression in prostate tissue of prostate cancer patients may be considered as a tool for predicting biochemical recurrence after combined hormone and radiation therapy. The test has a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 85.71%.

  12. Measurement and prediction of dabigatran etexilate mesylate Form II solubility in mono-solvents and mixed solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Yan; Wang, Jingkang; Wang, Ting; Ouyang, Jinbo; Huang, Xin; Hao, Hongxun; Bao, Ying; Fang, Wen; Yin, Qiuxiang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Solubility of DEM Form II in mono-solvents and binary solvent mixtures was measured. • Regressed UNIFAC model was used to predict the solubility in solvent mixtures. • The experimental solubility data were correlated by different models. - Abstract: UV spectrometer method was used to measure the solubility data of dabigatran etexilate mesylate (DEM) Form II in five mono-solvents (methanol, ethanol, ethane-1,2-diol, DMF, DMAC) and binary solvent mixtures of methanol and ethanol in the temperature range from 287.37 K to 323.39 K. The experimental solubility data in mono-solvents were correlated with modified Apelblat equation, van’t Hoff equation and λh equation. GSM model and Modified Jouyban-Acree model were employed to correlate the solubility data in mixed solvent systems. And Regressed UNIFAC model was used to predict the solubility of DEM Form II in the binary solvent mixtures. Results showed that the predicted data were consistent with the experimental data.

  13. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian

    2018-01-01

    Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

  14. Stark broadening of resonant Cr II 3d5-3d44p spectral lines in hot stellar atmospheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simić, Z.; Dimitrijević, M. S.; Sahal-Bréchot, S.

    2013-07-01

    New Stark broadening parameters of interest for the astrophysical, laboratory and technological plasma modelling, investigations and analysis for nine resonant Cr II multiplets have been determined within the semiclassical perturbation approach. In order to demonstrate one possibility for their usage in astrophysical plasma research, obtained results have been applied to the analysis of the Stark broadening influence on stellar spectral line shapes.

  15. Prediction of atmospheric δ13CO2 using fossil plant tissues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jahren, A. Hope [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States); Arens, Nan Crystal [Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY (United States); Harbeson, Stephanie A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States); Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)

    2008-06-30

    To summarize the content: we presented the results of laboratory experiments designed to quantify the relationship between plant tissue δ13C and δ13CO2 values under varying environmental conditions, including differential pCO2 ranging from 1 to 3 times today’s levels. As predicted, plants grown under elevated pCO2 showed increased average biomass compared to controls grown at the same temperature. Across a very large range in δ13Ca (≈ 24 ‰) and pCO2 (≈ 740 ppmv) we observed a consistent correlation between δ13Ca and δ13Cp (p<0.001). We show an average isotopic depletion of -25.4 ‰ for above-ground tissue and -23.2 ‰ for below-ground tissue of Raphanus sativus L. relative to the composition of the atmosphere under which it formed. For both above- and below-ground tissue, grown at both ~23 °C and ~29 °C, correlation was strong and significant (r2 ≥ 0.98, p<0.001); variation in pCO2 level had little or no effect on this relationship.

  16. Improved methods for predicting peptide binding affinity to MHC class II molecules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kamilla Kjærgaard; Andreatta, Massimo; Marcatili, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    Major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) molecules are expressed on the surface of professional antigen presenting cells where they display peptides to T helper cells, which orchestrate the onset and outcome of many host immune responses. Understanding which peptides will be presented b...... are publicly available at www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCII-2.3 and www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCIIpan-3.2. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  17. Validation of the LOD score compared with APACHE II score in prediction of the hospital outcome in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khwannimit, Bodin

    2008-01-01

    The Logistic Organ Dysfunction score (LOD) is an organ dysfunction score that can predict hospital mortality. The aim of this study was to validate the performance of the LOD score compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in a mixed intensive care unit (ICU) at a tertiary referral university hospital in Thailand. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24 month period from July1, 2004 until June 30, 2006. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H statistic. The overall fit of the model was evaluated by the Brier's score. Overall, 1,429 patients were enrolled during the study period. The mortality in the ICU was 20.9% and in the hospital was 27.9%. The median ICU and hospital lengths of stay were 3 and 18 days, respectively, for all patients. Both models showed excellent discrimination. The AUROC for the LOD and APACHE II were 0.860 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.838-0.882] and 0.898 (95% Cl = 0.879-0.917), respectively. The LOD score had perfect calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H chi-2 = 10 (p = 0.44). However, the APACHE II had poor calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H chi-2 = 75.69 (p < 0.001). Brier's score showed the overall fit for both models were 0.123 (95%Cl = 0.107-0.141) and 0.114 (0.098-0.132) for the LOD and APACHE II, respectively. Thus, the LOD score was found to be accurate for predicting hospital mortality for general critically ill patients in Thailand.

  18. Numerical Predictions of Wind Turbine Power and Aerodynamic Loads for the NREL Phase II and IV Combined Experiment Rotor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Earl P. N.; Johnson, Wayne; vanDam, C. P.; Chao, David D.; Cortes, Regina; Yee, Karen

    1999-01-01

    Accurate, reliable and robust numerical predictions of wind turbine rotor power remain a challenge to the wind energy industry. The literature reports various methods that compare predictions to experiments. The methods vary from Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEM), Vortex Lattice (VL), to variants of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS). The BEM and VL methods consistently show discrepancies in predicting rotor power at higher wind speeds mainly due to inadequacies with inboard stall and stall delay models. The RaNS methodologies show promise in predicting blade stall. However, inaccurate rotor vortex wake convection, boundary layer turbulence modeling and grid resolution has limited their accuracy. In addition, the inherently unsteady stalled flow conditions become computationally expensive for even the best endowed research labs. Although numerical power predictions have been compared to experiment. The availability of good wind turbine data sufficient for code validation experimental data that has been extracted from the IEA Annex XIV download site for the NREL Combined Experiment phase II and phase IV rotor. In addition, the comparisons will show data that has been further reduced into steady wind and zero yaw conditions suitable for comparisons to "steady wind" rotor power predictions. In summary, the paper will present and discuss the capabilities and limitations of the three numerical methods and make available a database of experimental data suitable to help other numerical methods practitioners validate their own work.

  19. Low Expression of TBX4 Predicts Poor Prognosis in Patients with Stage II Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meijuan Zong

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study was designed to investigate the expression of the T-box transcription factor 4 (TBX4, a tumor biomarker that was previously identified by proteomics, in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC and evaluate its clinical utility as a potential prognostic biomarkers for PDAC. The expression of TBX4 was detected in 77 stage II PDAC tumors by immunohistochemistry, and the results were analyzed with regard to clinicopathological characteristics and overall survival. Moreover, Tbx4 promoter methylation status in primary PDAC tumors and normal adjacent pancreas tissues was measured by bisulfite sequencing. Among 77 stage II PDAC tumors, 48 cases (62.3% expressed TBX4 at a high level. No significant correlation between TBX4 expression and other clinicopathological parameters, except tumor grade and liver metastasis recurrence, was found. The survival of patients with TBX4-high expression was significantly longer than those with TBX4-low expression (P = 0.010. In multivariate analysis, low TBX4 expression was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in patients with stage II PDAC. TBX4 promoter methylation status was frequently observed in both PDAC and normal adjacent pancreas. We conclude that a low level of TBX4 expression suggests a worse prognosis for patients with stage II PDAC. Down-regulation of the TBX4 gene in pancreas is less likely to be regulated by DNA methylation.

  20. Biomonitoring of atmospheric pollution (with emphasis on trace elements) - BioMap II. Proceedings of an international workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-01-01

    Certain types of organisms integrate pollution over time, reducing the need for continuous chemical monitoring, thus avoiding the difficulty of interpreting 'snapshot' measurements and offering the potential of retrospective monitoring. Such organisms enrich the substance to be determined so that the analytical accessibility is improved and the measurement uncertainty reduced. By observing and measuring the changes in an appropriately selected organism, a conclusion as to the kind of pollution, its source, and its intensity can be drawn. The IAEA is making concerted efforts to promote the practical use of nuclear and related analytical techniques in studies of non-radioactive environmental pollutants that may impact on human health, and one of the main emphasis is on studying air contaminants. The IAEA has been systematically supporting biomonitoring atmospheric pollution for 10 years in the framework of its project on Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Research Using Nuclear and Related Analytical Techniques. The objective of this project is to identify the source and evaluate the fate of key non-radioactive environmental contaminants and provide the basis for improved health for human populations. The project has been implemented through a Coordinated Research Project on Validation and Application of Plants as Biomonitors of Trace Element Atmospheric Pollution Analysed by Nuclear and Related Techniques, several technical co-operation projects, and some dedicated analytical quality control activities. Within the scope of these efforts, the Second International Workshop on Biomonitoring of Atmospheric Pollution (with Emphasis on Trace Elements) - BioMAP, was organized as a follow-up to the 1997 BioMAP workshop held in Lisbon, Portugal. The proceedings of the first workshop were published in IAEA-TECDOC-1152. The second workshop was held in Praia da Vitoria, Azores Islands, Portugal, from 28 August to 3 September 2000. It was organized in co-operation with the

  1. Biomonitoring of atmospheric pollution (with emphasis on trace elements) - BioMap II. Proceedings of an international workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Certain types of organisms integrate pollution over time, reducing the need for continuous chemical monitoring, thus avoiding the difficulty of interpreting 'snapshot' measurements and offering the potential of retrospective monitoring. Such organisms enrich the substance to be determined so that the analytical accessibility is improved and the measurement uncertainty reduced. By observing and measuring the changes in an appropriately selected organism, a conclusion as to the kind of pollution, its source, and its intensity can be drawn. The IAEA is making concerted efforts to promote the practical use of nuclear and related analytical techniques in studies of non-radioactive environmental pollutants that may impact on human health, and one of the main emphasis is on studying air contaminants. The IAEA has been systematically supporting biomonitoring atmospheric pollution for 10 years in the framework of its project on Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Research Using Nuclear and Related Analytical Techniques. The objective of this project is to identify the source and evaluate the fate of key non-radioactive environmental contaminants and provide the basis for improved health for human populations. The project has been implemented through a Coordinated Research Project on Validation and Application of Plants as Biomonitors of Trace Element Atmospheric Pollution Analysed by Nuclear and Related Techniques, several technical co-operation projects, and some dedicated analytical quality control activities. Within the scope of these efforts, the Second International Workshop on Biomonitoring of Atmospheric Pollution (with Emphasis on Trace Elements) - BioMAP, was organized as a follow-up to the 1997 BioMAP workshop held in Lisbon, Portugal. The proceedings of the first workshop were published in IAEA-TECDOC-1152. The second workshop was held in Praia da Vitoria, Azores Islands, Portugal, from 28 August to 3 September 2000. It was organized in co-operation with the

  2. Prediction of RNA Polymerase II recruitment, elongation and stalling from histone modification data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yun; Jørgensen, Mette; Kolde, Raivo

    2011-01-01

    of RNAPII stalling. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we introduce a general framework to accurately predict the level of RNAPII recruitment, elongation, stalling and mRNA expression from chromatin signals. The versatility of the method also makes it ideally suited to investigate other genomic data....... strategies are needed to progress from descriptive annotation of data to quantitative, predictive models. RESULTS: Here, we describe a computational framework which with high accuracy can predict the locations of core promoters, the amount of recruited RNAPII at the promoter, the amount of elongating RNAPII...... of these four marks are found to be necessary for recruitment of RNAPII but not sufficient for the elongation. We also show that the spatial distributions of histone marks are almost as predictive as the signal strength and that a set of histone marks immediately downstream of the TSS is highly predictive...

  3. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  4. Predictive Performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and the Initial Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score in Acutely Ill Intensive Care Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Granholm, Anders; Møller, Morten Hylander; Kragh, Mette

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Severity scores including the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score are used in intensive care units (ICUs) to assess disease severity, predict mortality and in research. We aimed to assess the predictive performance of SAPS II...... compared the discrimination of SAPS II and initial SOFA scores, compared the discrimination of SAPS II in our cohort with the original cohort, assessed the calibration of SAPS II customised to our cohort, and compared the discrimination for 90-day mortality vs. in-hospital mortality for both scores....... Discrimination was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROC). Calibration was evaluated using Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness-of-fit Ĉ-statistic. RESULTS: AUROC for in-hospital mortality was 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.83) for SAPS II and 0.73 (95% CI 0...

  5. Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamp, Derek van der [University of Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Curry, Charles L. [Environment Canada University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada); Monahan, Adam H. [University of Victoria, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979-2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well. (orig.)

  6. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-03-01

    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  7. Prediction of equilibrium parameters of adsorption of lead (II) ions onto diatomite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman, Taylan; Ardalı, Yüksel; Gamze Turan, N.

    2013-04-01

    Heavy metals from industrial wastewaters are one of the most important environmental issues to be solved today. Due to their toxicity and nonbiodegradable nature, heavy metals cause environmental and public health problems. Various techniques have been developed to remove heavy metals from aqueous solutions. These include chemical precipitation, reverse osmosis, ion Exchange and adsorption. Among them, adsorption is considered to be a particularly competitive and effective process for the removal of heavy metals from aqueous solutions. There is growing interest in using low cost, commercially available materials for the adsorption of heavy metals. Diatomite is a siliceous sedimentary rock having an amorphous form of silica (SiO2. nH2O) containing a small amount of microcrystalline material. It has unique combination of physical and chemical properties such as high porosity, high permeability, small particle size, large surface area, and low thermal conductivity. In addition, it is available in Turkey and in various locations around the world. Therefore, diatomite has been successfully used as adsorbent for the removal of heavy metals. The aim of the study is to investigate the adsorption properties of diatomite. The equilibrium adsorption data were applied to the Langmuir, Freundlich and Dubinin-Radushkevic (D-R) isotherm models. Adsorption experiments were performed under batch process, using Pb (II) initial concentration, pH of solution and contact time as variables. The results demonstrated that the adsorption of Pb (II) was strongly dependent on pH of solution. The effect of pH on adsorption of Pb(II) on diatomite was conducted by varying pH from 2 to 12 at 20 oC. In the pH range of 2.0-4.0, the adsorption percentage increases slightly as the pH increasing. At pH>4, the adsorption percentage decreases with increasing pH because hydrolysis product and the precipitation begin to play an important role in the sorption of Pb (II). At pH4, the maximum adsorption

  8. High Order Wavelet-Based Multiresolution Technology for Airframe Noise Prediction, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to develop a novel, high-accuracy, high-fidelity, multiresolution (MRES), wavelet-based framework for efficient prediction of airframe noise sources and...

  9. Fluid mechanics of dynamic stall. II - Prediction of full scale characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ericsson, L. E.; Reding, J. P.

    1988-01-01

    Analytical extrapolations are made from experimental subscale dynamics to predict full scale characteristics of dynamic stall. The method proceeds by establishing analytic relationships between dynamic and static aerodynamic characteristics induced by viscous flow effects. The method is then validated by predicting dynamic test results on the basis of corresponding static test data obtained at the same subscale flow conditions, and the effect of Reynolds number on the static aerodynamic characteristics are determined from subscale to full scale flow conditions.

  10. Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: II. Illustrative application to reactor physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, Dan Gabriel; Badea, Madalina Corina

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We applied the PMCMPS methodology to a paradigm neutron diffusion model. • We underscore the main steps in applying PMCMPS to treat very large coupled systems. • PMCMPS reduces the uncertainties in the optimally predicted responses and model parameters. • PMCMPS is for sequentially treating coupled systems that cannot be treated simultaneously. - Abstract: This work presents paradigm applications to reactor physics of the innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)” developed by Cacuci (2014). This methodology enables the assimilation of experimental and computational information and computes optimally predicted responses and model parameters with reduced predicted uncertainties, taking fully into account the coupling terms between the multi-physics systems, but using only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The paradigm examples presented in this work are based on a simple neutron diffusion model, chosen so as to enable closed-form solutions with clear physical interpretations. These paradigm examples also illustrate the computational efficiency of the PMCMPS, which enables the assimilation of additional experimental information, with a minimal increase in computational resources, to reduce the uncertainties in predicted responses and best-estimate values for uncertain model parameters, thus illustrating how very large systems can be treated without loss of information in a sequential rather than simultaneous manner

  11. A Big Data Approach for Situation-Aware estimation, correction and prediction of aerosol effects, based on MODIS Joint Atmosphere product (collection 6) time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A. K.; Toshniwal, D.

    2017-12-01

    The MODIS Joint Atmosphere product, MODATML2 and MYDATML2 L2/3 provided by LAADS DAAC (Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive & Distribution System Distributed Active Archive Center) re-sampled from medium resolution MODIS Terra /Aqua Satellites data at 5km scale, contains Cloud Reflectance, Cloud Top Temperature, Water Vapor, Aerosol Optical Depth/Thickness, Humidity data. These re-sampled data, when used for deriving climatic effects of aerosols (particularly in case of cooling effect) still exposes limitations in presence of uncertainty measures in atmospheric artifacts such as aerosol, cloud, cirrus cloud etc. The effect of uncertainty measures in these artifacts imposes an important challenge for estimation of aerosol effects, adequately affecting precise regional weather modeling and predictions: Forecasting and recommendation applications developed largely depend on these short-term local conditions (e.g. City/Locality based recommendations to citizens/farmers based on local weather models). Our approach inculcates artificial intelligence technique for representing heterogeneous data(satellite data along with air quality data from local weather stations (i.e. in situ data)) to learn, correct and predict aerosol effects in the presence of cloud and other atmospheric artifacts, defusing Spatio-temporal correlations and regressions. The Big Data process pipeline consisting correlation and regression techniques developed on Apache Spark platform can easily scale for large data sets including many tiles (scenes) and over widened time-scale. Keywords: Climatic Effects of Aerosols, Situation-Aware, Big Data, Apache Spark, MODIS Terra /Aqua, Time Series

  12. Prediction of a new region in the H-T phase diagram of a disordered type II superconductor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nandgaonkar, Ajay; Kanhere, D.G.; Trivedi, Nandini

    1997-01-01

    The phase diagram of a type II superconductor (SC) in the magnetic field (B) - temperature (T) plane is shown schematically. At low T the system consists of an Abrikosov triangular vortex lattice which melts as the temperature is increased. At high B, the rigidity of the vortex lattice C 66 decreases with increasing B. Thus, the melting curve essentially tracks the H c2 behaviour, as shown in region (a) in fig. It was further suggested by Nelson, based on a mapping of vortices in 3D onto a problem of boson world-lines in spatial 2D and 1 imaginary dimension, that the classical statistical mechanics of vortices is analogous to the problem of quantum melting of the bosons. He used this mapping to predict a novel reentrant behavior of the phase boundary. These predictions were verified by experiments

  13. Structure-based prediction and identification of 4-epimerization activity of phosphate sugars in class II aldolases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seon-Hwa; Hong, Seung-Hye; An, Jung-Ung; Kim, Kyoung-Rok; Kim, Dong-Eun; Kang, Lin-Woo; Oh, Deok-Kun

    2017-05-16

    Sugar 4-epimerization reactions are important for the production of rare sugars and their derivatives, which have various potential industrial applications. For example, the production of tagatose, a functional sweetener, from fructose by sugar 4-epimerization is currently constrained because a fructose 4-epimerase does not exist in nature. We found that class II D-fructose-1,6-bisphosphate aldolase (FbaA) catalyzed the 4-epimerization of D-fructose-6-phosphate (F6P) to D-tagatose-6-phosphate (T6P) based on the prediction via structural comparisons with epimerase and molecular docking and the identification of the condensed products of C3 sugars. In vivo, the 4-epimerization activity of FbaA is normally repressed. This can be explained by our results showing the catalytic efficiency of D-fructose-6-phosphate kinase for F6P phosphorylation was significantly higher than that of FbaA for F6P epimerization. Here, we identified the epimerization reactions and the responsible catalytic residues through observation of the reactions of FbaA and L-rhamnulose-1-phosphate aldolases (RhaD) variants with substituted catalytic residues using different substrates. Moreover, we obtained detailed potential epimerization reaction mechanism of FbaA and a general epimerization mechanism of the class II aldolases L-fuculose-1-phosphate aldolase, RhaD, and FbaA. Thus, class II aldolases can be used as 4-epimerases for the stereo-selective synthesis of valuable carbohydrates.

  14. A Study on the Tracking and Position Predictions of Artificial Satellite (II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pil-Ho Park

    1991-06-01

    Full Text Available We developed a software system called IODS (ISSA Orbit Determination System, which can predict the orbit of arbitrary artificial satellite using the numerical method. For evaluating the orbit prediction accuracy of IODS, the orbital data predicted for the meteorological satellite NOAA-11 and the stationary satellite INTELSAT-V are intercompared with those tracked at the Central Bureau of Meteorology and the Kum-San Satellites Communication Station. And the Perturbation affecting the orbit of these artificial satellites are quantitatively analyzed. The orbital variation and the eclipse phenomina due to the earth shadow are analyzed for a hypothetical geostationary satellite called KORSAT-1 which is assumed to be located in longitude 110°E.

  15. Connection of the stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part II: interdecadal variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Climate Prediction Center (Room 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (Room 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-01-15

    The interdecadal variation of the association of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and with the general circulation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is examined using the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, as well as other observation-based analyses. It is found that the relationship between the QBO and tropical SSTA changed once around 1978-1980, and again in 1993-1995. During 1966-1974, negative correlation between the QBO and NINO3.4 indices reached its maximum when the NINO3.4 index lagged the QBO by less than 6 months. Correspondingly, the positive correlations were observed when the NINO3.4 index led the QBO by about 11-13 months or lagged by about 12-18 months. However, maximum negative correlations were shifted from the NINO3.4 index lagging the QBO by about 0-6 months during 1966-1974 to about 3-12 months during 1985-1992. During 1975-1979, both the negative and positive correlations were relatively small and the QBO and ENSO were practically unrelated to each other. The phase-based QBO life cycle composites also confirm that, on average, there are two phase (6-7 months) delay in the evolution of the QBO-associated anomalous Walker circulation, tropical SST, atmospheric stability, and troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature anomalies during 1980-1994 in comparison with those in 1957-1978. The interdecadal variation of the association between the QBO and the troposphere variability may be largely due to the characteristic change of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The irregularity of the QBO may play a secondary role in the interdecadal variation of the association. (orig.)

  16. Quantitative impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction. Part II: Impacts to IR radiance assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquis, J. W.; Campbell, J. R.; Oyola, M. I.; Ruston, B. C.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    This is part II of a two-part series examining the impacts of aerosol particles on weather forecasts. In this study, the aerosol indirect effects on weather forecasts are explored by examining the temperature and moisture analysis associated with assimilating dust contaminated hyperspectral infrared radiances. The dust induced temperature and moisture biases are quantified for different aerosol vertical distribution and loading scenarios. The overall impacts of dust contamination on temperature and moisture forecasts are quantified over the west coast of Africa, with the assistance of aerosol retrievals from AERONET, MPL, and CALIOP. At last, methods for improving hyperspectral infrared data assimilation in dust contaminated regions are proposed.

  17. Performance of 1000- and 1800- cfm HEPA filters on long exposure to low atmospheric dust loadings, II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    First, M.W.; Rudnick, S.N.

    1981-01-01

    Comparative tests were made to evaluate the performance characteristics of American- and European-design HEPA filters when exposed, for a number of years, to aerosols characteristic of nuclear and biohazard service. Although some of the European-design filters were operated at their rated airflow capacity of 1800 cfm, some were downrated to 1000 cfm to determine if their service life could be more than tripled compared to conventional 1000-cfm Americal-design HEPA filters, as filter theory predicts. Initial results indicate, however, that for the ambient aerosol used in this study, a European-design filter has a service life of only 1.6 times greater than an American-design filter when both operate at 1000 cfm. Further tests are in progress to verify this result

  18. Specific responsible environmental behavior among boaters on the Chesapeake Bay: a predictive model part II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart P. Cottrell; Alan R. Graefe

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines predictors of boater behavior in a specific behavior situation, namely the percentage of raw sewage discharged from recreational vessels in a sanitation pumpout facility on the Chesapeake Bay. Results of a multiple regression analysis show knowledge predicts behavior in specific issue situations. In addition, the more specific the...

  19. Predicted Geology of the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Phase II Drilling Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) Phase II drilling will occur within an area that encompasses approximately 117 square kilometers (45 square miles) near the center of the Phase I PM-OV hydrostratigraphic framework model area. The majority of the investigation area lies within dissected volcanic terrain between Pahute Mesa on the north and Timber Mountain on the south. This area consists of a complex distribution of volcanic tuff and lava of generally rhyolitic composition erupted from nearby calderas and related vents. Several large buried volcanic structural features control the distribution of volcanic units in the investigation area. The Area 20 caldera, including its structural margin and associated caldera collapse collar, underlies the northeastern portion of the investigation area. The southern half of the investigation area lies within the northwestern portion of the Timber Mountain caldera complex, including portions of the caldera moat and resurgent dome. Another significant structural feature in the area is the west-northwest-trending Northern Timber Mountain moat structural zone, which bisects the northern portion of the investigation area and forms a structural bench. The proposed wells of the UGTA Phase II drilling initiative can be grouped into four generalized volcanic structural domains based on the stratigraphic distribution and structural position of the volcanic rocks in the upper 1,000 meters (3,300 feet) of the crust, a depth that represents the approximate planned total depths of the proposed wells

  20. SVMRFE based approach for prediction of most discriminatory gene target for type II diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atul Kumar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Type II diabetes is a chronic condition that affects the way our body metabolizes sugar. The body's important source of fuel is now becoming a chronic disease all over the world. It is now very necessary to identify the new potential targets for the drugs which not only control the disease but also can treat it. Support vector machines are the classifier which has a potential to make a classification of the discriminatory genes and non-discriminatory genes. SVMRFE a modification of SVM ranks the genes based on their discriminatory power and eliminate the genes which are not involved in causing the disease. A gene regulatory network has been formed with the top ranked coding genes to identify their role in causing diabetes. To further validate the results pathway study was performed to identify the involvement of the coding genes in type II diabetes. The genes obtained from this study showed a significant involvement in causing the disease, which may be used as a potential drug target.

  1. Feasibility and predictive performance of the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II in a rehabilitation department: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanini, Isabella; Mastrangelo, Stefano; Bargellini, Annalisa; Bassoli, Agnese; Bosi, Gabriele; Lombardi, Francesco; Tolomelli, Stefano; Lusuardi, Mirco; Merlo, Andrea

    2018-01-11

    Falls are a common adverse event in both elderly inpatients and patients admitted to rehabilitation units. The Hendrich Fall Risk Model II (HIIFRM) has been already tested in all hospital wards with high fall rates, with the exception of the rehabilitation setting. This study's aim is to address the feasibility and predictive performances of HIIFRM in a hospital rehabilitation department. A 6 months prospective study in a Italian rehabilitation department with patients from orthopaedic, pulmonary, and neurological rehabilitation wards. All admitted patients were enrolled and assessed within 24 h of admission by means of the HIIFRM. The occurrence of falls was checked and recorded daily. HIIFRM feasibility was assessed as the percentage of successful administrations at admission. HIIFRM predictive performance was determined in terms of area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), best cutoff, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, along with their asymptotic 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). One hundred ninety-one patents were admitted. HIIFRM was feasible in 147 cases (77%), 11 of which suffered a fall (7.5%). Failures in administration were mainly due to bedridden patients (e.g. minimally conscious state, vegetative state). AUC was 0.779(0.685-0.873). The original HIIFRM cutoff of 5 led to a sensitivity of 100% with a mere specificity of 49%(40-57%), thus suggesting using higher cutoffs. Moreover, the median score for non-fallers at rehabilitation units was higher than that reported in literature for geriatric non fallers. The best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity was obtained by using a cutoff of 8. This lead to sensitivity = 73%(46-99%), specificity = 72%(65-80%), positive predictive value = 17% and negative predictive value = 97%. These results support the use of the HIIFRM as a predictive tool. The HIIFRM showed satisfactory feasibility and predictive performances in

  2. FREEZING AND THAWING TIME PREDICTION METHODS OF FOODS II: NUMARICAL METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahya TÜLEK

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available Freezing is one of the excellent methods for the preservation of foods. If freezing and thawing processes and frozen storage method are carried out correctly, the original characteristics of the foods can remain almost unchanged over an extended periods of time. It is very important to determine the freezing and thawing time period of the foods, as they strongly influence the both quality of food material and process productivity and the economy. For developing a simple and effectively usable mathematical model, less amount of process parameters and physical properties should be enrolled in calculations. But it is a difficult to have all of these in one prediction method. For this reason, various freezing and thawing time prediction methods were proposed in literature and research studies have been going on.

  3. Computational and experimental prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors, Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiruta, Mie; Johnson, Gannon [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Rostamian, Maziar, E-mail: mrostamian@asme.org [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Potirniche, Gabriel P. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Ougouag, Abderrafi M. [Idaho National Laboratory, 2525 N Fremont Avenue, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States); Bertino, Massimo; Franzel, Louis [Department of Physics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284 (United States); Tokuhiro, Akira [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Idaho, 1776 Science Center Drive, Idaho Falls, ID 83401 (United States)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Custom-built high temperature, high pressure tribometer is designed. • Two different wear phenomena at high temperatures are observed. • Experimental wear results for graphite are presented. • The graphite wear dust production in a typical Pebble Bed Reactor is predicted. -- Abstract: This paper is the continuation of Part I, which describes the high temperature and high pressure helium environment wear tests of graphite–graphite in frictional contact. In the present work, it has been attempted to simulate a Pebble Bed Reactor core environment as compared to Part I. The experimental apparatus, which is a custom-designed tribometer, is capable of performing wear tests at PBR relevant higher temperatures and pressures under a helium environment. This environment facilitates prediction of wear mass loss of graphite as dust particulates from the pebble bed. The experimental results of high temperature helium environment are used to anticipate the amount of wear mass produced in a pebble bed nuclear reactor.

  4. Angiotensinogen and HLA class II predict bevacizumab response in recurrent glioblastoma patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urup, Thomas; Michaelsen, Signe Regner; Olsen, Lars Rønn

    2016-01-01

    Background: Bevacizumab combination therapy is among the most frequently used treatments in recurrent glioblastoma and patients who achieve response to bevacizumab have improved survival as well as quality of life. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify predictive biomarkers for bevac......Background: Bevacizumab combination therapy is among the most frequently used treatments in recurrent glioblastoma and patients who achieve response to bevacizumab have improved survival as well as quality of life. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify predictive biomarkers...... for bevacizumab response in recurrent glioblastoma patients. Methods: The study included a total of 82 recurrent glioblastoma patients treated with bevacizumab combination therapy whom were both response and biomarker evaluable. Gene expression of tumor tissue was analyzed by using a customized Nano...

  5. Propagation of high-energy laser beams through the earth's atmosphere II; Proceedings of the Meeting, Los Angeles, CA, Jan. 21-23, 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Peter B. (Editor); Wilson, Leroy E. (Editor)

    1991-01-01

    Consideration is given to turbulence at the inner scale, modeling turbulent transport in laser beam propagation, variable wind direction effects on thermal blooming correction, realistic wind effects on turbulence and thermal blooming compensation, wide bandwidth spectral measurements of atmospheric tilt turbulence, remote alignment of adaptive optical systems with far-field optimization, focusing infrared laser beams on targets in space without using adaptive optics, and a simplex optimization method for adaptive optics system alignment. Consideration is also given to ground-to-space multiline propagation at 1.3 micron, a path integral approach to thermal blooming, functional reconstruction predictions of uplink whole beam Strehl ratios in the presence of thermal blooming, and stability analysis of semidiscrete schemes for thermal blooming computation.

  6. Predicted mineral melt formation by BCURA Coal Sample Bank coals: Variation with atmosphere and comparison with reported ash fusion test data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D. Thompson [University of Sheffield (United Kingdom). Department of Engineering Materials

    2010-08-15

    The thermodynamic equilibrium phases formed under ash fusion test and excess air combustion conditions by 30 coals of the BCURA Coal Sample Bank have been predicted from 1100 to 2000 K using the MTDATA computational suite and the MTOX database for silicate melts and associated phases. Predicted speciation and degree of melting varied widely from coal to coal. Melting under an ash fusion test atmosphere of CO{sub 2}:H{sub 2} 1:1 was essentially the same as under excess air combustion conditions for some coals, and markedly different for others. For those ashes which flowed below the fusion test maximum temperature of 1773 K flow coincided with 75-100% melting in most cases. Flow at low predicted melt formation (46%) for one coal cannot be attributed to any one cause. The difference between predicted fusion behaviours under excess air and fusion test atmospheres becomes greater with decreasing silica and alumina, and increasing iron, calcium and alkali metal content in the coal mineral. 22 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.

  7. A network-based predictive gene-expression signature for adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in stage II colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Bangrong; Luo, Liping; Feng, Lin; Ma, Shiqi; Chen, Tingqing; Ren, Yuan; Zha, Xiao; Cheng, Shujun; Zhang, Kaitai; Chen, Changmin

    2017-12-13

    The clinical benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) is controversial. This study aimed to explore novel gene signature to predict outcome benefit of postoperative 5-Fu-based therapy in stage II CRC. Gene-expression profiles of stage II CRCs from two datasets with 5-Fu-based adjuvant chemotherapy (training dataset, n = 212; validation dataset, n = 85) were analyzed to identify the indicator. A systemic approach by integrating gene-expression and protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was implemented to develop the predictive signature. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards model were used to determine the survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy. Experiments with shRNA knock-down were carried out to confirm the signature identified in this study. In the training dataset, we identified 44 PPI sub-modules, by which we separate patients into two clusters (1 and 2) having different chemotherapeutic benefit. A predictor of 11 PPI sub-modules (11-PPI-Mod) was established to discriminate the two sub-groups, with an overall accuracy of 90.1%. This signature was independently validated in an external validation dataset. Kaplan-Meier curves showed an improved outcome for patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy in Cluster 1 sub-group, but even worse survival for those in Cluster 2 sub-group. Similar results were found in both the training and the validation dataset. Multivariate Cox regression revealed an interaction effect between 11-PPI-Mod signature and adjuvant therapy treatment in the training dataset (RFS, p = 0.007; OS, p = 0.006) and the validation dataset (RFS, p = 0.002). From the signature, we found that PTGES gene was up-regulated in CRC cells which were more resistant to 5-Fu. Knock-down of PTGES indicated a growth inhibition and up-regulation of apoptotic markers induced by 5-Fu in CRC cells. Only a small proportion of stage II CRC patients could benefit from adjuvant therapy. The 11-PPI-Mod as

  8. ESCAPING PARTICLE FLUXES IN THE ATMOSPHERES OF CLOSE-IN EXOPLANETS. II. REDUCED MASS-LOSS RATES AND ANISOTROPIC WINDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, J. H.

    2013-01-01

    In Paper I, we presented a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the winds of close-in exoplanets. However, close-in exoplanets are tidally locked and irradiated only on the day sides by their host stars. This requires two-dimensional hydrodynamic models with self-consistent radiative transfer calculations. In this paper, for the tidal-locking (two-dimensional radiative transfer) and non-tidal-locking cases (one-dimensional radiative transfer), we constructed a multi-fluid two-dimensional hydrodynamic model with detailed radiative transfer to depict the escape of particles. We found that the tidal forces (the sum of tidal gravity of the star and centrifugal force due to the planetary rotation) supply significant accelerations and result in anisotropic winds. An important effect of the tidal forces is that it severely depresses the outflow of particles near the polar regions where the density and the radial velocity are a factor of a few (ten) smaller than those of the low-latitude regions. As a consequence, most particles escape the surface of the planet from the regions of low latitude. Comparing the tidal-locking and non-tidal-locking cases, we found that their optical depths are very different so that the flows also emerge with a different pattern. In the case of non-tidal locking, the radial velocities at the base of the wind are higher than the meridional velocities. However, in the case of tidal locking, the meridional velocities dominate the flow at the base of the wind, and they can effectively transfer mass and energy from the day sides to the night sides. Further, we also found that the differences of the winds show a middle extent at large radii. This means that the structure of the wind at the base can be changed by the two-dimensional radiative transfer due to large optical depths, but the extent is reduced with an increase in radius. Because the escape is depressed in the polar regions, the mass-loss rate predicted by the non-tidal-locking model, in

  9. Prediction of 222 Rn exhalation rates from phosphogypsum based stacks. Part II: preliminary numerical results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabi, Jose A.; Mohamad, Abdulmajeed A.

    2004-01-01

    The first part of this paper proposes a steady-state 2-D model for 222 Rn transport in phosphogypsum stacks. In this second part, the dimensionless model equations are solved numerically with the help of an existing finite-volume simulator that has been successfully used to solve heat and mass transfer problems in porous media. As a test case, a rectangular shaped stack is considered in order to verify the ability of the proposed parametric approach to account for concurrent effects on the 222 Rn exhalation into the local atmosphere. Air flow is supposed to be strictly buoyancy driven and the ground is assumed to be impermeable to 222 Rn and at a higher temperature under the stack base. Dimensionless controlling parameters are set to representative values and results are presented for Grashof number in the range 10 6 ≤Gr≤ 10 8 , corresponding to very small to small temperature differences between incoming air and ground underneath the stack base. For the particular set of parameters and inasmuch as Gr increases, streamlines presented basically the same pattern while internal isotherms and iso concentration lines remained almost unchanged. Total average Sherwood number proved to be rather insensitive to Gr while total average Nusselt increased slightly with Gr. (author)

  10. Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

    2000-01-01

    A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

  11. Daily and 3-hourly variability in global fire emissions and consequences for atmospheric model predictions of carbon monoxide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J.T; van der Werf, G.R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G.J.; DeFries, R.S.; Hyer, E.J.; Prins, E.M.; Griffith, D.; Wunch, D.; Toon, G.C.; Sherlock, V.; Wennberg, P.O.

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic-and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for

  12. Remote sensing of atmospheric particulates: Technological innovation and physical limitations in applications to short-range weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, R. J.; Kropfil, R.; Hallett, J.

    1984-01-01

    Techniques for remote sensing of particles, from cloud droplet to hailstone size, using optical and microwave frequencies are reviewed. The inherent variability of atmospheric particulates is examined to delineate conditions when the signal can give information to be effectively utilized in a forecasting context. The physical limitations resulting from the phase, size, orientation and concentration variability of the particulates are assessed.

  13. IFPE/FUMEX-II/CASE27, 7 idealised cases for functional dependence of FGR predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turnbull, J.A.; Rossiter, Glyn; Sontheimer, Fritz; Tayal, Mukesh

    2004-01-01

    Description: Seven idealised cases to illustrate the functional dependence of fission gas release (FGR) predictions. (1) Temperature vs Bu for onset of FGR (draft available); (2a) FGR for constant 15 kW/m to 100 MWd/kgU; (2b) FGR for 20 kW/m at BOL decreasing linearly to 10 kW/m at 100 MWd/kgU; (2c) FGR for more realistic power histories supplied by BNFL; (2d) FGR for idealized 'real' histories supplied by FANP; (3a) Candu-Effect of Power on Fission Gas Release; (3b) Candu-Effect of Power Envelope on Fuel Performance

  14. Finite element analysis for prediction of the residual stresses induced by shot peening II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Cheol; Seok, Chang Sung; Yang, Won Ho; Ryu, Myung Hai

    2002-01-01

    Shot peening is a surface impact treatment widely used to improve the performance of metal parts and welded details subjected to fatigue loading, contact fatigue, stress corrosion and other damage mechanisms. The better performance of the peened parts is mainly due to the residual stresses resulting from the plastic deformation of the surface layers of the material caused by the impact of the shot. In this paper the simulation technique is applied to predict the magnitude and distribution of the residual stress and plastic deformation caused by shot peening with the help of finite element analysis

  15. TSSPlant: a new tool for prediction of plant Pol II promoters

    KAUST Repository

    Shahmuradov, Ilham A.

    2017-01-13

    Our current knowledge of eukaryotic promoters indicates their complex architecture that is often composed of numerous functional motifs. Most of known promoters include multiple and in some cases mutually exclusive transcription start sites (TSSs). Moreover, TSS selection depends on cell/tissue, development stage and environmental conditions. Such complex promoter structures make their computational identification notoriously difficult. Here, we present TSSPlant, a novel tool that predicts both TATA and TATA-less promoters in sequences of a wide spectrum of plant genomes. The tool was developed by using large promoter collections from ppdb and PlantProm DB. It utilizes eighteen significant compositional and signal features of plant promoter sequences selected in this study, that feed the artificial neural network-based model trained by the backpropagation algorithm. TSSPlant achieves significantly higher accuracy compared to the next best promoter prediction program for both TATA promoters (MCC≃0.84 and F1-score≃0.91 versus MCC≃0.51 and F1-score≃0.71) and TATA-less promoters (MCC≃0.80, F1-score≃0.89 versus MCC≃0.29 and F1-score≃0.50). TSSPlant is available to download as a standalone program at http://www.cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/download/.

  16. TSSPlant: a new tool for prediction of plant Pol II promoters

    KAUST Repository

    Shahmuradov, Ilham A.; Umarov, Ramzan; Solovyev, Victor V.

    2017-01-01

    Our current knowledge of eukaryotic promoters indicates their complex architecture that is often composed of numerous functional motifs. Most of known promoters include multiple and in some cases mutually exclusive transcription start sites (TSSs). Moreover, TSS selection depends on cell/tissue, development stage and environmental conditions. Such complex promoter structures make their computational identification notoriously difficult. Here, we present TSSPlant, a novel tool that predicts both TATA and TATA-less promoters in sequences of a wide spectrum of plant genomes. The tool was developed by using large promoter collections from ppdb and PlantProm DB. It utilizes eighteen significant compositional and signal features of plant promoter sequences selected in this study, that feed the artificial neural network-based model trained by the backpropagation algorithm. TSSPlant achieves significantly higher accuracy compared to the next best promoter prediction program for both TATA promoters (MCC≃0.84 and F1-score≃0.91 versus MCC≃0.51 and F1-score≃0.71) and TATA-less promoters (MCC≃0.80, F1-score≃0.89 versus MCC≃0.29 and F1-score≃0.50). TSSPlant is available to download as a standalone program at http://www.cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/download/.

  17. Non-animal methods to predict skin sensitization (II): an assessment of defined approaches *.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinstreuer, Nicole C; Hoffmann, Sebastian; Alépée, Nathalie; Allen, David; Ashikaga, Takao; Casey, Warren; Clouet, Elodie; Cluzel, Magalie; Desprez, Bertrand; Gellatly, Nichola; Göbel, Carsten; Kern, Petra S; Klaric, Martina; Kühnl, Jochen; Martinozzi-Teissier, Silvia; Mewes, Karsten; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Strickland, Judy; van Vliet, Erwin; Zang, Qingda; Petersohn, Dirk

    2018-05-01

    Skin sensitization is a toxicity endpoint of widespread concern, for which the mechanistic understanding and concurrent necessity for non-animal testing approaches have evolved to a critical juncture, with many available options for predicting sensitization without using animals. Cosmetics Europe and the National Toxicology Program Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods collaborated to analyze the performance of multiple non-animal data integration approaches for the skin sensitization safety assessment of cosmetics ingredients. The Cosmetics Europe Skin Tolerance Task Force (STTF) collected and generated data on 128 substances in multiple in vitro and in chemico skin sensitization assays selected based on a systematic assessment by the STTF. These assays, together with certain in silico predictions, are key components of various non-animal testing strategies that have been submitted to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as case studies for skin sensitization. Curated murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) and human skin sensitization data were used to evaluate the performance of six defined approaches, comprising eight non-animal testing strategies, for both hazard and potency characterization. Defined approaches examined included consensus methods, artificial neural networks, support vector machine models, Bayesian networks, and decision trees, most of which were reproduced using open source software tools. Multiple non-animal testing strategies incorporating in vitro, in chemico, and in silico inputs demonstrated equivalent or superior performance to the LLNA when compared to both animal and human data for skin sensitization.

  18. Making oxidation potentials predictable: Coordination of additives applied to the electronic fine tuning of an iron(II) complex

    KAUST Repository

    Haslinger, Stefan

    2014-11-03

    This work examines the impact of axially coordinating additives on the electronic structure of a bioinspired octahedral low-spin iron(II) N-heterocyclic carbene (Fe-NHC) complex. Bearing two labile trans-acetonitrile ligands, the Fe-NHC complex, which is also an excellent oxidation catalyst, is prone to axial ligand exchange. Phosphine- and pyridine-based additives are used for substitution of the acetonitrile ligands. On the basis of the resulting defined complexes, predictability of the oxidation potentials is demonstrated, based on a correlation between cyclic voltammetry experiments and density functional theory calculated molecular orbital energies. Fundamental insights into changes of the electronic properties upon axial ligand exchange and the impact on related attributes will finally lead to target-oriented manipulation of the electronic properties and consequently to the effective tuning of the reactivity of bioinspired systems.

  19. Making oxidation potentials predictable: Coordination of additives applied to the electronic fine tuning of an iron(II) complex

    KAUST Repository

    Haslinger, Stefan; Kü ck, Jens W.; Hahn, Eva M.; Cokoja, Mirza; Pö thig, Alexander; Basset, Jean-Marie; Kü hn, Fritz

    2014-01-01

    This work examines the impact of axially coordinating additives on the electronic structure of a bioinspired octahedral low-spin iron(II) N-heterocyclic carbene (Fe-NHC) complex. Bearing two labile trans-acetonitrile ligands, the Fe-NHC complex, which is also an excellent oxidation catalyst, is prone to axial ligand exchange. Phosphine- and pyridine-based additives are used for substitution of the acetonitrile ligands. On the basis of the resulting defined complexes, predictability of the oxidation potentials is demonstrated, based on a correlation between cyclic voltammetry experiments and density functional theory calculated molecular orbital energies. Fundamental insights into changes of the electronic properties upon axial ligand exchange and the impact on related attributes will finally lead to target-oriented manipulation of the electronic properties and consequently to the effective tuning of the reactivity of bioinspired systems.

  20. CRAB-II: a computer program to predict hydraulics and scram dynamics of LMFBR control assemblies and its validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carelli, M.D.; Baker, L.A.; Willis, J.M.; Engel, F.C.; Nee, D.Y.

    1982-01-01

    This paper presents an analytical method, the computer code CRAB-II, which calculates the hydraulics and scram dynamics of LMFBR control assemblies of the rod bundle type and its validation against prototypic data obtained for the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR) primary control assemblies. The physical-mathematical model of the code is presented, followed by a description of the testing of prototypic CRBR control assemblies in water and sodium to characterize, respectively, their hydraulic and scram dynamics behavior. Comparison of code predictions against the experimental data are presened in detail; excellent agreement was found. Also reported are experimental data and empirical correlations for the friction factor of the absorber bundle in the entire flow range (laminar to turbulent) which represent an extension of the state-of-the-art, since only fuel and blanket assemblies friction factor correlations were previously reported in the open literature

  1. Design and verification of controllers for longitudinal oscillations using optimal control theory and numerical simulation: Predictions for PEP-II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hindi, H.; Prabhakar, S.; Fox, J.; Teytelman, D.

    1997-12-01

    The authors present a technique for the design and verification of efficient bunch-by-bunch controllers for damping longitudinal multibunch instabilities. The controllers attempt to optimize the use of available feedback amplifier power--one of the most expensive components of a feedback system--and define the limits of closed loop system performance. The design technique alternates between analytic computation of single bunch optimal controllers and verification on a multibunch numerical simulator. The simulator identifies unstable coupled bunch modes and predicts their growth and damping rates. The results from the simulator are shown to be in reasonable agreement with analytical calculations based on the single bunch model. The technique is then used to evaluate the performance of a variety of controllers proposed for PEP-II

  2. A quasi-stationary numerical model of atomized metal droplets, II: Prediction and assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryds, Nini H.; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Thorborg, Jesper

    1999-01-01

    been illustrated.A comparison between the numerical model and the experimental results shows an excellent agreement and demonstrates the validity of the present model, e.g. the calculated gas temperature which has an important influence on the droplet solidification behaviour as well as the calculated......A new model which extends previous studies and includes the interaction between enveloping gas and an array of droplets has been developed and presented in a previous paper. The model incorporates the probability density function of atomized metallic droplets into the heat transfer equations....... The main thrust of the model is that the gas temperature was not predetermined and calculated empirically but calculated numerically based on heat balance consideration. In this paper, the accuracy of the numerical model and the applicability of the model as a predictive tool have been investigated...

  3. Computational and experimental prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors, Part II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mie Hiruta; Gannon Johnson; Maziar Rostamian; Gabriel P. Potirniche; Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Massimo Bertino; Louis Franzel; Akira Tokuhiro

    2013-10-01

    This paper is the continuation of Part I, which describes the high temperature and high pressure helium environment wear tests of graphite–graphite in frictional contact. In the present work, it has been attempted to simulate a Pebble Bed Reactor core environment as compared to Part I. The experimental apparatus, which is a custom-designed tribometer, is capable of performing wear tests at PBR relevant higher temperatures and pressures under a helium environment. This environment facilitates prediction of wear mass loss of graphite as dust particulates from the pebble bed. The experimental results of high temperature helium environment are used to anticipate the amount of wear mass produced in a pebble bed nuclear reactor.

  4. GUTs and exceptional branes in F-theory - II. Experimental predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beasley, Chris; Heckman, Jonathan J.; Vafa, Cumrun

    2009-01-01

    We consider realizations of GUT models in F-theory. Adopting a bottom up approach, the assumption that the dynamics of the GUT model can in principle decouple from Planck scale physics leads to a surprisingly predictive framework. An internal U(1) hypercharge flux Higgses the GUT group directly to the MSSM or to a flipped GUT model, a mechanism unavailable in heterotic models. This new ingredient automatically addresses a number of puzzles present in traditional GUT models. The internal U(1) hyperflux allows us to solve the doublet-triplet splitting problem, and explains the qualitative features of the distorted GUT mass relations for lighter generations due to the Aharanov-Bohm effect. These models typically come with nearly exact global symmetries which prevent bare μ terms and also forbid dangerous baryon number violating operators. Strong curvature around our brane leads to a repulsion mechanism for Landau wave functions for neutral fields. This leads to large hierarchies of the form exp(-c/ε 2γ ) where c and γ are order one parameters and ε ∼ α GUT -1 M GUT /M pl . This effect can simultaneously generate a viably small μ term as well as an acceptable Dirac neutrino mass on the order of 0.5 x 10 -2±0.5 eV. In another scenario, we find a modified seesaw mechanism which predicts that the light neutrinos have masses in the expected range while the Majorana mass term for the heavy neutrinos is ∼ 3 x 10 12±1.5 GeV. Communicating supersymmetry breaking to the MSSM can be elegantly realized through gauge mediation. In one scenario, the same repulsion mechanism also leads to messenger masses which are naturally much lighter than the GUT scale.

  5. Microcomputer based program for predicting heat transfer under reactor accident conditions. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, S.C.; Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K.H.; Wong, Y.L.; Nguyen, C.

    1987-07-01

    A microcomputer based program called Heat Transfer Prediction Software (HTPS) has been developed. It calculates the heat transfer for tube and bundle geometries for steady state and transient conditions. This program is capable of providing the best estimated of the hot pin temperatures during slow transients for 37- and 28-element CANDU type fuel bundles. The program is designed for an IBM-PC AT/XT (or IBM-PC compatible computer) equipped with a Math Co-processor. The following input parameters are required: pressure, mass flux, hydraulic diameter, and quality. For the steady state case, the critical heat flux (CHF), the critical heat flux temperature, the minimum film boiling temperature, and the minimum film boiling heat flux are the primary outputs. With either the surface heat flux or wall temperature specified, the program determines the heat transfer regime and calculates the surface heat flux, wall temperature and heat transfer coefficient. For the slow transient case, the pressure, mass flux, quality, and volumetric heat generation rate are the time dependent input parameters are required to calculate the hot pin sheath temperatures and surface heat fluxes. A simple routine for generating properties has been developed for light water to support the above program. It contains correlations that have been verified for pressures ranging from 0.6kPa to 30 MPa, and temperatures up to 1100 degrees Celcius. The thermodynamic and transport properties that can be generated from this routine are: density, specific volume, enthalpy, specific heat capacity, conductivity, viscosity, surface tension and Prandtle number for saturated liquid, saturated vapour, subcooled liquid of superheated vapour. A software for predicting flow regime has also been developed. It determines the flow pattern at specific flow conditions, and provides a correction factor for calculating the CHF during partially stratified horizontal flow. The technical bases for the program and its structure

  6. Contaminant dispersion prediction and source estimation with integrated Gaussian-machine learning network model for point source emission in atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Denglong [Fuli School of Food Equipment Engineering and Science, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); Zhang, Zaoxiao, E-mail: zhangzx@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Flow in Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China); School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No.28 Xianning West Road, Xi’an 710049 (China)

    2016-07-05

    Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.

  7. Contaminant dispersion prediction and source estimation with integrated Gaussian-machine learning network model for point source emission in atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Denglong; Zhang, Zaoxiao

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The intelligent network models were built to predict contaminant gas concentrations. • The improved network models coupled with Gaussian dispersion model were presented. • New model has high efficiency and accuracy for concentration prediction. • New model were applied to indentify the leakage source with satisfied results. - Abstract: Gas dispersion model is important for predicting the gas concentrations when contaminant gas leakage occurs. Intelligent network models such as radial basis function (RBF), back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model can be used for gas dispersion prediction. However, the prediction results from these network models with too many inputs based on original monitoring parameters are not in good agreement with the experimental data. Then, a new series of machine learning algorithms (MLA) models combined classic Gaussian model with MLA algorithm has been presented. The prediction results from new models are improved greatly. Among these models, Gaussian-SVM model performs best and its computation time is close to that of classic Gaussian dispersion model. Finally, Gaussian-MLA models were applied to identifying the emission source parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. The estimation performance of PSO with Gaussian-MLA is better than that with Gaussian, Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion model and network models based on original monitoring parameters. Hence, the new prediction model based on Gaussian-MLA is potentially a good method to predict contaminant gas dispersion as well as a good forward model in emission source parameters identification problem.

  8. Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk"? submarine study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

    2003-03-01

    There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the "Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 1011 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

  9. Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

    2003-06-01

    There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq) are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2) over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2) for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

  10. Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: 'Kursk' submarine study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Baklanov

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.. Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1 probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2 forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

  11. Maxwell-Stefan diffusion: a framework for predicting condensed phase diffusion and phase separation in atmospheric aerosol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Kathryn; Connolly, Paul J.; Topping, David O.; O'Meara, Simon

    2018-02-01

    The composition of atmospheric aerosol particles has been found to influence their micro-physical properties and their interaction with water vapour in the atmosphere. Core-shell models have been used to investigate the relationship between composition, viscosity and equilibration timescales. These models have traditionally relied on the Fickian laws of diffusion with no explicit account of non-ideal interactions. We introduce the Maxwell-Stefan diffusion framework as an alternative method, which explicitly accounts for non-ideal interactions through activity coefficients. e-folding time is the time it takes for the difference in surface and bulk concentration to change by an exponential factor and was used to investigate the interplay between viscosity and solubility and the effect this has on equilibration timescales within individual aerosol particles. The e-folding time was estimated after instantaneous increases in relative humidity to binary systems of water and an organic component. At low water mole fractions, viscous effects were found to dominate mixing. However, at high water mole fractions, equilibration times were more sensitive to a range in solubility, shown through the greater variation in e-folding times. This is the first time the Maxwell-Stefan framework has been applied to an atmospheric aerosol core-shell model and shows that there is a complex interplay between the viscous and solubility effects on aerosol composition that requires further investigation.

  12. Atmospheric Photochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Harrie; Potter, A. E.

    1961-01-01

    The upper atmosphere offers a vast photochemical laboratory free from solid surfaces, so all reactions take place in the gaseous phase. At 30 km altitude the pressure has fallen to about one-hundredth of that at ground level, and we shall, rather arbitrarily, regard the upper atmosphere as beginning at that height. By a little less than 100 km the pressure has fallen to 10(exp -3) mm Hg and is decreasing by a power of ten for every 15 km increase in altitude. Essentially we are concerned then with the photochemistry of a nitrogen-oxygen mixture under low-pressure conditions in which photo-ionization, as well as photodissociation, plays an important part. Account must also be taken of the presence of rare constituents, such as water vapour and its decomposition products, including particularly hydroxyl, oxides of carbon, methane and, strangely enough, sodium, lithium and calcium. Many curious and unfamiliar reactions occur in the upper atmosphere. Some of them are luminescent, causing the atmosphere to emit a dim light called the airglow. Others, between gaseous ions and neutral molecules, are almost a complete mystery at this time. Similar interesting phenomena must occur in other planetary atmospheres, and they might be predicted if sufficient chemical information were available.

  13. PLANET-PLANET SCATTERING IN PLANETESIMAL DISKS. II. PREDICTIONS FOR OUTER EXTRASOLAR PLANETARY SYSTEMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raymond, Sean N.; Armitage, Philip J.; Gorelick, Noel

    2010-01-01

    We develop an idealized dynamical model to predict the typical properties of outer extrasolar planetary systems, at radii comparable to the Jupiter-to-Neptune region of the solar system. The model is based upon the hypothesis that dynamical evolution in outer planetary systems is controlled by a combination of planet-planet scattering and planetary interactions with an exterior disk of small bodies ('planetesimals'). Our results are based on 5000 long duration N-body simulations that follow the evolution of three planets from a few to 10 AU, together with a planetesimal disk containing 50 M + from 10 to 20 AU. For large planet masses (M ∼> M Sat ), the model recovers the observed eccentricity distribution of extrasolar planets. For lower-mass planets, the range of outcomes in models with disks is far greater than that which is seen in isolated planet-planet scattering. Common outcomes include strong scattering among massive planets, sudden jumps in eccentricity due to resonance crossings driven by divergent migration, and re-circularization of scattered low-mass planets in the outer disk. We present the distributions of the eccentricity and inclination that result, and discuss how they vary with planet mass and initial system architecture. In agreement with other studies, we find that the currently observed eccentricity distribution (derived primarily from planets at a ∼ -1 and periods in excess of 10 years will provide constraints on this regime. Finally, we present an analysis of the predicted separation of planets in two-planet systems, and of the population of planets in mean-motion resonances (MMRs). We show that, if there are systems with ∼ Jupiter-mass planets that avoid close encounters, the planetesimal disk acts as a damping mechanism and populates MMRs at a very high rate (50%-80%). In many cases, resonant chains (in particular the 4:2:1 Laplace resonance) are set up among all three planets. We expect such resonant chains to be common among massive

  14. Identification and Construction of Combinatory Cancer Hallmark-Based Gene Signature Sets to Predict Recurrence and Chemotherapy Benefit in Stage II Colorectal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shanwu; Tibiche, Chabane; Zou, Jinfeng; Zaman, Naif; Trifiro, Mark; O'Connor-McCourt, Maureen; Wang, Edwin

    2016-01-01

    Decisions regarding adjuvant therapy in patients with stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) have been among the most challenging and controversial in oncology over the past 20 years. To develop robust combinatory cancer hallmark-based gene signature sets (CSS sets) that more accurately predict prognosis and identify a subset of patients with stage II CRC who could gain survival benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy. Thirteen retrospective studies of patients with stage II CRC who had clinical follow-up and adjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed. Respective totals of 162 and 843 patients from 2 and 11 independent cohorts were used as the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. A total of 1005 patients with stage II CRC were included in the 13 cohorts. Among them, 84 of 416 patients in 3 independent cohorts received fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Identification of CSS sets to predict relapse-free survival and identify a subset of patients with stage II CRC who could gain substantial survival benefits from fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Eight cancer hallmark-based gene signatures (30 genes each) were identified and used to construct CSS sets for determining prognosis. The CSS sets were validated in 11 independent cohorts of 767 patients with stage II CRC who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. The CSS sets accurately stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. Five-year relapse-free survival rates were 94%, 78%, and 45%, respectively, representing 60%, 28%, and 12% of patients with stage II disease. The 416 patients with CSS set-defined high-risk stage II CRC who received fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy showed a substantial gain in survival benefits from the treatment (ie, recurrence reduced by 30%-40% in 5 years). The CSS sets substantially outperformed other prognostic predictors of stage 2 CRC. They are more accurate and robust for prognostic predictions and facilitate the identification of patients with stage

  15. An Assessment of Comprehensive Code Prediction State-of-the-Art Using the HART II International Workshop Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    vanderWall, Berend G.; Lim, Joon W.; Smith, Marilyn J.; Jung, Sung N.; Bailly, Joelle; Baeder, James D.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Despite significant advancements in computational fluid dynamics and their coupling with computational structural dynamics (= CSD, or comprehensive codes) for rotorcraft applications, CSD codes with their engineering level of modeling the rotor blade dynamics, the unsteady sectional aerodynamics and the vortical wake are still the workhorse for the majority of applications. This is especially true when a large number of parameter variations is to be performed and their impact on performance, structural loads, vibration and noise is to be judged in an approximate yet reliable and as accurate as possible manner. In this paper, the capabilities of such codes are evaluated using the HART II Inter- national Workshop data base, focusing on a typical descent operating condition which includes strong blade-vortex interactions. Three cases are of interest: the baseline case and two cases with 3/rev higher harmonic blade root pitch control (HHC) with different control phases employed. One setting is for minimum blade-vortex interaction noise radiation and the other one for minimum vibration generation. The challenge is to correctly predict the wake physics - especially for the cases with HHC - and all the dynamics, aerodynamics, modifications of the wake structure and the aero-acoustics coming with it. It is observed that the comprehensive codes used today have a surprisingly good predictive capability when they appropriately account for all of the physics involved. The minimum requirements to obtain these results are outlined.

  16. The HART II International Workshop: An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art in Comprehensive Code Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    vanderWall, Berend G.; Lim, Joon W.; Smith, Marilyn J.; Jung, Sung N.; Bailly, Joelle; Baeder, James D.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

    2013-01-01

    Significant advancements in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and their coupling with computational structural dynamics (CSD, or comprehensive codes) for rotorcraft applications have been achieved recently. Despite this, CSD codes with their engineering level of modeling the rotor blade dynamics, the unsteady sectional aerodynamics and the vortical wake are still the workhorse for the majority of applications. This is especially true when a large number of parameter variations is to be performed and their impact on performance, structural loads, vibration and noise is to be judged in an approximate yet reliable and as accurate as possible manner. In this article, the capabilities of such codes are evaluated using the HART II International Workshop database, focusing on a typical descent operating condition which includes strong blade-vortex interactions. A companion article addresses the CFD/CSD coupled approach. Three cases are of interest: the baseline case and two cases with 3/rev higher harmonic blade root pitch control (HHC) with different control phases employed. One setting is for minimum blade-vortex interaction noise radiation and the other one for minimum vibration generation. The challenge is to correctly predict the wake physics-especially for the cases with HHC-and all the dynamics, aerodynamics, modifications of the wake structure and the aero-acoustics coming with it. It is observed that the comprehensive codes used today have a surprisingly good predictive capability when they appropriately account for all of the physics involved. The minimum requirements to obtain these results are outlined.

  17. Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

  18. Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from

  19. Navsonde Atmospheric Sampler, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is a low-cost, retrievable and reusable, autonomously guided dropsonde capable of deploying from a host aircraft and performing in-situ...

  20. A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

    2017-01-01

    The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

  1. Mitigation of Atmospheric Delay in SAR Absolute Ranging Using Global Numerical Weather Prediction Data: Corner Reflector Experiments at 3 Different Test Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Xiaoying; Balss, Ulrich; Eineder, Michael

    2015-04-01

    The atmospheric delay due to vertical stratification, the so-called stratified atmospheric delay, has a great impact on both interferometric and absolute range measurements. In our current researches [1][2][3], centimeter-range accuracy has been proven based on Corner Reflector (CR) based measurements by applying atmospheric delay correction using the Zenith Path Delay (ZPD) corrections derived from nearby Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. For a global usage, an effective method has been introduced to estimate the stratified delay based on global 4-dimensional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) products: the direct integration method [4][5]. Two products, ERA-Interim and operational data, provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) are used to integrate the stratified delay. In order to access the integration accuracy, a validation approach is investigated based on ZPD derived from six permanent GPS stations located in different meteorological conditions. Range accuracy at centimeter level is demonstrated using both ECMWF products. Further experiments have been carried out in order to determine the best interpolation method by analyzing the temporal and spatial correlation of atmospheric delay using both ECMWF and GPS ZPD. Finally, the integrated atmospheric delays in slant direction (Slant Path Delay, SPD) have been applied instead of the GPS ZPD for CR experiments at three different test sites with more than 200 TerraSAR-X High Resolution SpotLight (HRSL) images. The delay accuracy is around 1-3 cm depending on the location of test site due to the local water vapor variation and the acquisition time/date. [1] Eineder M., Minet C., Steigenberger P., et al. Imaging geodesy - Toward centimeter-level ranging accuracy with TerraSAR-X. Geoscience and Remote Sensing, IEEE Transactions on, 2011, 49(2): 661-671. [2] Balss U., Gisinger C., Cong X. Y., et al. Precise Measurements on the Absolute Localization Accuracy of TerraSAR-X on the

  2. Enroute NASA/FAA low-frequency propfan test in Alabama (October 1987): A versatile atmospheric aircraft long-range noise prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsouka, Despina G.

    In order to obtain a flight-to-static noise prediction of an advanced Turboprop (propfan) Aircraft, FAA went on an elaboration of the data that were measured during a full scale measuring program that was conducted by NASA and FAA/DOT/TSC on October 1987 in Alabama. The elaboration process was based on aircraft simulation to a point source, on an atmospheric two dimensional noise model, on the American National Standard algorithm for the calculation of atmospheric absortion, and on the DOT/TSC convention for ground reflection effects. Using the data of the Alabama measurements, the present paper examines the development of a generalized, flexible and more accurate process for the evaluation of the static and flight low-frequency long-range noise data. This paper also examines the applicability of the assumptions made by the Integrated Noise Model about linear propagation, of the three dimensional Hamiltonian Rays Tracing model and of the Weyl-Van der Pol model. The model proposes some assumptions in order to increase the calculations flexibility without significant loss of accuracy. In addition, it proposes the usage of the three dimensional Hamiltonian Rays Tracing model and the Weyl-Van der Pol model in order to increase the accuracy and to ensure the generalization of noise propagation prediction over grounds with variable impedance.

  3. Sensitivity of Numerical Weather Prediction to the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis into the Brazilian Global Model Data Assimilation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamiris B. Campos

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the high spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric water vapor associated with the deficient methodologies used in its quantification and the imperfect physics parameterizations incorporated in the models, there are significant uncertainties in characterizing the moisture field. The process responsible for incorporating the information provided by observation into the numerical weather prediction is denominated data assimilation. The best result in atmospheric moisture depend on the correct choice of the moisture control variable. Normalized relative humidity and pseudo-relative humidity are the variables usually used by the main weather prediction centers. The objective of this study is to assess the sensibility of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies to choose moisture control variable in the data assimilation scheme. Experiments using these variables are carried out. The results show that the pseudo-relative humidity improves the variables that depend on temperature values but damage the moisture field. The opposite results show when the simulation used the normalized relative humidity. These experiments suggest that the pseudo-relative humidity should be used in the cyclical process of data assimilation and the normalized relative humidity should be used in non-cyclic process (e.g., nowcasting application in high resolution.

  4. A Novel Procedure for Prediction of Mixed Mode I/II in Fracture Toughness of Laminate Composites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mahmood Shokrieh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Delamination is one of the important modes of failure in laminated composite materials. In this respect, the mixed mode I/II fracture is the most major mode of delamination incidence in laminated composite. In the present research, a relation between the fracture toughness of double cantilever beam (DCB and asymmetric double cantilever beam (ADCB specimens is presented. The DCB and ADCB samples are used for measuring the mode I and mixed mode I/II fracture toughness (G of laminated composite materials, respectively. By considering the diversity of the stacking sequence of lay-ups, the test performance on all different types of lay-ups in order to measure the fracture toughness of laminated composites is a tedious, costly and time consuming task. The purpose of deriving this relation is to estimate the value of the strain energy release rate of laminated composite ADCB specimens by testing a unidirectional DCB. To develop this relationship, the geometry of DCB and ADCB specimens are considered to obtain fracture toughness of multi-directional laminate composites of ADCB samples with arbitrary ply sequence which may be used for design purposes. The procedure presented here reduces the calculation costs of the finite element modeling and its corresponding test significantly. The results obtained by this method are compared with those of experimental and numerical methods. It is shown that the fracture toughness of multi-directional lay-ups can be predicted by measuring the unidirectional ply with an error less than 10% demonstrating the accuracy of the procedure developed in the present research.

  5. An improved crude oil atmospheric distillation process for energy integration: Part II: New approach for energy saving by use of residual heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benali, Tahar; Tondeur, Daniel; Jaubert, Jean Noël

    2012-01-01

    In Part I of this paper, it was shown on thermodynamic grounds that introducing a flash in the preheating train of an atmospheric oil distillation process, together with an appropriate introduction of the resulting vapour into the column, could potentially bring substantial energy savings, by reducing the duty of the preheating furnace, by doing some pre-fractionation and by reducing the column irreversibilities. Part II expands on this idea by showing how this can be done while keeping the throughput and the product characteristics unchanged. The outcome is that placing several flashes after the heat exchangers and feeding the corresponding vapour streams to the appropriate trays of the column reduces the pumparound flows and the heat brought to the preheating train. The resulting heat deficit may then be compensated in an additional heat exchanger by using low level heat recuperated from the products of the distillation and/or imported from other processes. The use of this residual heat reduces the furnace duty by approximately an equivalent amount. Thus high level energy (fuel-gas burnt in the furnace) is replaced by residual low level heat. The simulation with an example flowsheet shows that the savings on fuel could be as high as 21%. - Highlights: ► Flash installation in the preheating train of the crude oil distillation process. ► Pumparound streams and heat sent to the preheating train are reduced. ► A high level heat deficit is induced and replaced by low level heat. ► Considerable energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions are achieved.

  6. Prediction of Mortality after Emergent Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement: Use of APACHE II, Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Asian Patients with Refractory Variceal Hemorrhage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzeng, Wen Sheng; Wu, Reng Hong; Lin, Ching Yih; Chen, Jyh Jou; Sheu, Ming Juen; Koay, Lok Beng; Lee, Chuan

    2009-01-01

    This study was designed to determine if existing methods of grading liver function that have been developed in non-Asian patients with cirrhosis can be used to predict mortality in Asian patients treated for refractory variceal hemorrhage by the use of the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure. Data for 107 consecutive patients who underwent an emergency TIPS procedure were retrospectively analyzed. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of the various models to predict 30-day, 60-day and 360-day mortality. The ability of stratified APACHE II, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores to predict survival was assessed by the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test. No patient died during the TIPS procedure, but 82 patients died during the follow-up period. Thirty patients died within 30 days after the TIPS procedure; 37 patients died within 60 days and 53 patients died within 360 days. Univariate analysis indicated that hepatorenal syndrome, use of inotropic agents and mechanical ventilation were associated with elevated 30-day mortality (p 11 or an MELD score > 20 predicted increased risk of death at 30, 60 and 360 days (p 11 or an MELD score > 20 are predictive of mortality in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage treated with the TIPS procedure. An APACHE II score is not predictive of early mortality in this patient population

  7. Preparing to predict: The Second Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramp, S. R.; Davis, R. E.; Leonard, N. E.; Shulman, I.; Chao, Y.; Robinson, A. R.; Marsden, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Fratantoni, D. M.; Paduan, J. D.; Chavez, F. P.; Bahr, F. L.; Liang, S.; Leslie, W.; Li, Z.

    2009-02-01

    The Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network Phase Two (AOSN-II) experiment was conducted in and offshore from the Monterey Bay on the central California coast during July 23-September 6, 2003. The objective of the experiment was to learn how to apply new tools, technologies, and analysis techniques to adaptively sample the coastal ocean in a manner demonstrably superior to traditional methodologies, and to use the information gathered to improve predictive skill for quantities of interest to end-users. The scientific goal was to study the upwelling/relaxation cycle near an open coastal bay in an eastern boundary current region, particularly as it developed and spread from a coastal headland. The suite of observational tools used included a low-flying aircraft, a fleet of underwater gliders, including several under adaptive autonomous control, and propeller-driven AUVs in addition to moorings, ships, and other more traditional hardware. The data were delivered in real time and assimilated into the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (JPL/ROMS). Two upwelling events and one relaxation event were sampled during the experiment. The upwelling in both cases began when a pool of cold water less than 13 °C appeared near Cape Año Nuevo and subsequently spread offshore and southward across the bay as the equatorward wind stress continued. The primary difference between the events was that the first event spread offshore and southward, while the second event spread only southward and not offshore. The difference is attributed to the position and strength of meanders and eddies of the California Current System offshore, which blocked or steered the cold upwelled water. The space and time scales of the mesoscale variability were much shorter than have been previously observed in deep-water eddies offshore. Additional process studies are needed to elucidate

  8. Prediction of Mortality after Emergent Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement: Use of APACHE II, Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Asian Patients with Refractory Variceal Hemorrhage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tzeng, Wen Sheng; Wu, Reng Hong; Lin, Ching Yih; Chen, Jyh Jou; Sheu, Ming Juen; Koay, Lok Beng; Lee, Chuan [Chi-Mei Foundation Medical Center, Tainan (China)

    2009-10-15

    This study was designed to determine if existing methods of grading liver function that have been developed in non-Asian patients with cirrhosis can be used to predict mortality in Asian patients treated for refractory variceal hemorrhage by the use of the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure. Data for 107 consecutive patients who underwent an emergency TIPS procedure were retrospectively analyzed. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of the various models to predict 30-day, 60-day and 360-day mortality. The ability of stratified APACHE II, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores to predict survival was assessed by the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test. No patient died during the TIPS procedure, but 82 patients died during the follow-up period. Thirty patients died within 30 days after the TIPS procedure; 37 patients died within 60 days and 53 patients died within 360 days. Univariate analysis indicated that hepatorenal syndrome, use of inotropic agents and mechanical ventilation were associated with elevated 30-day mortality (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 predicted increased risk of death at 30, 60 and 360 days (p < 0.05). APACHE II scores could only predict mortality at 360 days (p < 0.05). A Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 are predictive of mortality in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage treated with the TIPS procedure. An APACHE II score is not predictive of early mortality in this patient population.

  9. Research on simulation technology for CBRN threat assessment system. Prediction technology for atmospheric dispersion of CBRN materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Hiroaki; Yano, Masanori; Nakata, Mitsuhiro; Takeda, Masaki

    2013-01-01

    The technical survey is conducted on the CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) Threat Assessment System Simulation Technology. The dispersion property of CBRN materials is summarized, and the current simulation techniques for CBRN materials dispersion are described. The effects of advection-diffusion, sedimentation by the gravity, buoyancy and wash-out by rainfall on the dispersion property of CBRN materials should be considered in the simulation modeling. The concentration distribution of CBRN materials is predicted through the meteorological analysis, the flow analysis and the dispersion analysis, and the hazard map will be produced from that. A selection of simulation method, model, domain and number of computational grid points is necessary to perform the simulation, considering the balance between calculation cost and prediction accuracy. For construction of CBRN Threat Assessment System, it is important how to integrate the developed simulation element technologies and threat assessment technologies. (author)

  10. Analysis of the snow-atmosphere energy balance during wet-snow instabilities and implications for avalanche prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Mitterer

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Wet-snow avalanches are notoriously difficult to predict; their formation mechanism is poorly understood since in situ measurements representing the thermal and mechanical evolution are difficult to perform. Instead, air temperature is commonly used as a predictor variable for days with high wet-snow avalanche danger – often with limited success. As melt water is a major driver of wet-snow instability and snow melt depends on the energy input into the snow cover, we computed the energy balance for predicting periods with high wet-snow avalanche activity. The energy balance was partly measured and partly modelled for virtual slopes at different elevations for the aspects south and north using the 1-D snow cover model SNOWPACK. We used measured meteorological variables and computed energy balance and its components to compare wet-snow avalanche days to non-avalanche days for four consecutive winter seasons in the surroundings of Davos, Switzerland. Air temperature, the net shortwave radiation and the energy input integrated over 3 or 5 days showed best results in discriminating event from non-event days. Multivariate statistics, however, revealed that for better predicting avalanche days, information on the cold content of the snowpack is necessary. Wet-snow avalanche activity was closely related to periods when large parts of the snowpack reached an isothermal state (0 °C and energy input exceeded a maximum value of 200 kJ m−2 in one day, or the 3-day sum of positive energy input was larger than 1.2 MJ m−2. Prediction accuracy with measured meteorological variables was as good as with computed energy balance parameters, but simulated energy balance variables accounted better for different aspects, slopes and elevations than meteorological data.

  11. Staging atmospheres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Mikkel; Bjerregaard, Peter; Sørensen, Tim Flohr

    2015-01-01

    The article introduces the special issue on staging atmospheres by surveying the philosophical, political and anthropological literature on atmosphere, and explores the relationship between atmosphere, material culture, subjectivity and affect. Atmosphere seems to occupy one of the classic...

  12. Prediction of the temperature of the atmosphere of the primary containment: comparison between neural networks and polynomial regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez Huerta, A.; Gonzalez Miguelez, R.; Garcia Metola, D.; Noriega Gonzalez, A.

    2011-01-01

    The modelization is carried out through two different techniques, a conventional polynomial regression and other based on an approach by neural networks artificial. He is a comparison between the quality of the forecast would make different models based on the polynomial regression and neural network with generalization by Bayesian regulation, using the indicators of the root of the mean square error and the coefficient of determination, in view of the results, the neural network generates a prediction more accurate and reliable than the polynomial regression.

  13. LUNAR OUTGASSING, TRANSIENT PHENOMENA, AND THE RETURN TO THE MOON. II. PREDICTIONS AND TESTS FOR OUTGASSING/REGOLITH INTERACTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crotts, Arlin P. S.; Hummels, Cameron

    2009-01-01

    We follow Paper I with predictions of how gas leaking through the lunar surface could influence the regolith, as might be observed via optical transient lunar phenomena (TLPs) and related effects. We touch on several processes, but concentrate on low and high flow rate extremes, which are perhaps the most likely. We model explosive outgassing for the smallest gas overpressure at the regolith base that releases the regolith plug above it. This disturbance's timescale and affected area are consistent with observed TLPs; we also discuss other effects. For slow flow, escape through the regolith is prolonged by low diffusivity. Water, found recently in deep magma samples, is unique among candidate volatiles, capable of freezing between the regolith base and surface, especially near the lunar poles. For major outgassing sites, we consider the possible accumulation of water ice. Over geological time, ice accumulation can evolve downward through the regolith. Depending on gases additional to water, regolith diffusivity might be suppressed chemically, blocking seepage and forcing the ice zone to expand to larger areas, up to km 2 scales, again, particularly at high latitudes. We propose an empirical path forward, wherein current and forthcoming technologies provide controlled, sensitive probes of outgassing. The optical transient/outgassing connection, addressed via Earth-based remote sensing, suggests imaging and/or spectroscopy, but aspects of lunar outgassing might be more covert, as indicated above. TLPs betray some outgassing, but does outgassing necessarily produce TLPs? We also suggest more intrusive techniques from radar to in situ probes. Understanding lunar volatiles seems promising in terms of resource exploitation for human exploration of the Moon and beyond, and offers interesting scientific goals in its own right. Many of these approaches should be practiced in a pristine lunar atmosphere, before significant confusing signals likely to be produced upon humans

  14. The influence of season of the year on the predicted agricultural consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides to atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmonds, J.R.

    1985-02-01

    In Europe, because of the seasonal nature of agricultural practices, the consequences for agriculture of an accidental release of radioactive materials to atmosphere are likely to vary depending upon the time of year when the release occurs. The quantification of this variation is complicated by the need to take into account the introduction of countermeasures to restrict the radiation exposure from ingestion of contaminated foods, and by the presence in accidental releases of radionuclides which persist over several seasons. In this study, the effect on agricultural consequences of accidental releases occurring at different times of the year is examined. The consequences are expressed in terms of the amount of produce affected by restrictions on food supplies and the collective radiation dose from ingestion of food. The investigation has been carried out for three hypothetical releases representing a range of releases postulated for pressurised water reactors (PWRs). The effect of season of the year was determined for accidental releases occurring both in a single, defined set of meteorological conditions and for a range of possible meteorological conditions. For the main part of the study, consideration was limited to agricultural production in the UK only, but the effect of extending the analysis beyond the UK boundary was also considered. The results of the study show that considerable variation can occur in agricultural consequences following an accidental release at different times of the year. For the larger releases considered, this variation is reduced due to the effect of the introduction of countermeasures, particularly when consideration is limited to the UK only. Seasonal variation tends to be greater for the results of a deterministic analysis, which uses a single set of constant meteorological conditions, than for the results of a full probabilistic assessment. From the results presented here it is also seen that for many applications of

  15. Forest atmosphere carbon transfer and storage (FACTS-II) the aspen Free-air CO2 and O3 Enrichment (FACE) project: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.E. Dickson; K.F. Lewin; J.G. Isebrands; M.D. Coleman; W.E. Heilman; D.E. Riemenschneider; J. Sober; G.E. Host; D.R. Zak; G.R. Hendrey; K.S. Pregitzer; D.F. Karnosky

    2000-01-01

    This publication briefly reviews the impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone on global climate change, and the response of forest trees to these atmospheric pollutants and their interactions; points out the need for large-scale field experiments to evaluate the response of plants to these environmental stresses; and describes the...

  16. On Verifying Currents and Other Features in the Hawaiian Islands Region Using Fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Compared to Global Ocean Model and Ocean Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessen, P. G.; Chen, S.

    2014-12-01

    This poster introduces and evaluates features concerning the Hawaii, USA region using the U.S. Navy's fully Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-OS™) coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). It also outlines some challenges in verifying ocean currents in the open ocean. The system is evaluated using in situ ocean data and initial forcing fields from the operational global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Verification shows difficulties in modelling downstream currents off the Hawaiian islands (Hawaii's wake). Comparing HYCOM to NCOM current fields show some displacement of small features such as eddies. Generally, there is fair agreement from HYCOM to NCOM in salinity and temperature fields. There is good agreement in SSH fields.

  17. Comparison of different models for ground-level atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) prediction with a new model according to local weather data for FSO applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arockia Bazil Raj, A; Arputha Vijaya Selvi, J; Durairaj, S

    2015-02-01

    Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of free-space optical communication (FSOC) systems when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulence transmission medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of the atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) according to meteorological parameters (weather data) becomes significant to understand the behavior of the FSOC channel during different seasons. The construction of a dedicated free-space optical link for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m built at Thanjavur (Tamil Nadu) is described in this paper. The power level and beam centroid information of the received signal are measured continuously with weather data at the same time using an optoelectronic assembly and the developed weather station, respectively, and are recorded in a data-logging computer. Existing models that exhibit relatively fewer prediction errors are briefed and are selected for comparative analysis. Measured weather data (as input factors) and C(n)(2) (as a response factor) of size [177,147×4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design mathematical models more suitable in the test field. Along with the model formulation methodologies, we have presented the contributions of the input factors' individual and combined effects on the response surface and the coefficient of determination (R(2)) estimated using analysis of variance tools. An R(2) value of 98.93% is obtained using the new model, model equation V, from a confirmatory test conducted with a testing data set of size [2000×4]. In addition, the prediction accuracies of the selected and the new models are investigated during different seasons in a one-year period using the statistics of day, week-averaged, month-averaged, and seasonal-averaged diurnal Cn2 profiles, and are verified in terms of the sum of absolute error (SAE). A Cn2 prediction maximum average SAE of 2.3×10(-13)  m(-2/3) is achieved using the new model in

  18. A Comparison of Predictive Thermo and Water Solvation Property Prediction Tools and Experimental Data for Selected Traditional Chemical Warfare Agents and Simulants II: COSMO RS and COSMOTherm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    SELECTED TRADITIONAL CHEMICAL WARFARE AGENTS AND SIMULANTS II: COSMO-RS AND COSMOTHERM ECBC-TR-1454 Jerry B. Cabalo RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY...Traditional Chemical Warfare Agents and Simulants II: COSMO-RS and COSMOTherm 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER CB10115...in the ADF 2012 suite of programs for the physico- chemical properties of a set of traditional chemical warfare agents and selected simulants. To

  19. Turbidity, SOLAR RADIATION - ATMOSPHERIC and other data from WEATHERBIRD II and CAPE HATTERAS from 1993-01-14 to 1994-12-20 (NODC Accession 9500070)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Conductivity, Temperature and Depth (CTD) and other data were collected over two years period spanning from January 14, 1993 to December 20, 1994 from ships R/V...

  20. In silico prediction of drug dissolution and absorption with variation in intestinal pH for BCS class II weak acid drugs: ibuprofen and ketoprofen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsume, Yasuhiro; Langguth, Peter; Garcia-Arieta, Alfredo; Amidon, Gordon L

    2012-10-01

    The FDA Biopharmaceutical Classification System guidance allows waivers for in vivo bioavailability and bioequivalence studies for immediate-release solid oral dosage forms only for BCS class I. Extensions of the in vivo biowaiver for a number of drugs in BCS class III and BCS class II have been proposed, in particular, BCS class II weak acids. However, a discrepancy between the in vivo BE results and in vitro dissolution results for BCS class II acids was recently observed. The objectives of this study were to determine the oral absorption of BCS class II weak acids via simulation software and to determine if the in vitro dissolution test with various dissolution media could be sufficient for in vitro bioequivalence studies of ibuprofen and ketoprofen as models of carboxylic acid drugs. The oral absorption of these BCS class II acids from the gastrointestinal tract was predicted by GastroPlus™. Ibuprofen did not satisfy the bioequivalence criteria at lower settings of intestinal pH of 6.0. Further the experimental dissolution of ibuprofen tablets in a low concentration phosphate buffer at pH 6.0 (the average buffer capacity 2.2 mmol l (-1) /pH) was dramatically reduced compared with the dissolution in SIF (the average buffer capacity 12.6 mmol l (-1) /pH). Thus these predictions for the oral absorption of BCS class II acids indicate that the absorption patterns depend largely on the intestinal pH and buffer strength and must be considered carefully for a bioequivalence test. Simulation software may be a very useful tool to aid the selection of dissolution media that may be useful in setting an in vitro bioequivalence dissolution standard. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. In Silico Prediction of Drug Dissolution and Absorption with variation in Intestinal pH for BCS Class II Weak Acid Drugs: Ibuprofen and Ketoprofen§

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsume, Yasuhiro; Langguth, Peter; Garcia-Arieta, Alfredo; Amidon, Gordon L.

    2012-01-01

    The FDA Biopharmaceutical Classification System guidance allows waivers for in vivo bioavailability and bioequivalence studies for immediate-release solid oral dosage forms only for BCS class I. Extensions of the in vivo biowaiver for a number of drugs in BCS Class III and BCS class II have been proposed, particularly, BCS class II weak acids. However, a discrepancy between the in vivo- BE results and in vitro- dissolution results for a BCS class II acids was recently observed. The objectives of this study were to determine the oral absorption of BCS class II weak acids via simulation software and to determine if the in vitro dissolution test with various dissolution media could be sufficient for in vitro bioequivalence studies of ibuprofen and ketoprofen as models of carboxylic acid drugs. The oral absorption of these BCS class II acids from the gastrointestinal tract was predicted by GastroPlus™. Ibuprofen did not satisfy the bioequivalence criteria at lower settings of intestinal pH=6.0. Further the experimental dissolution of ibuprofen tablets in the low concentration phosphate buffer at pH 6.0 (the average buffer capacity 2.2 mmol L-1/pH) was dramatically reduced compared to the dissolution in SIF (the average buffer capacity 12.6 mmol L -1/pH). Thus these predictions for oral absorption of BCS class II acids indicate that the absorption patterns largely depend on the intestinal pH and buffer strength and must be carefully considered for a bioequivalence test. Simulation software may be very useful tool to aid the selection of dissolution media that may be useful in setting an in vitro bioequivalence dissolution standard. PMID:22815122

  2. Jovian atmospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, M.; Travis, L.D.

    1986-10-01

    A conference on the atmosphere of Jupiter produced papers in the areas of thermal and ortho-para hydrogen structure, clouds and chemistry, atmospheric structure, global dynamics, synoptic features and processes, atmospheric dynamics, and future spaceflight opportunities. A session on the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune was included, and the atmosphere of Saturn was discussed in several papers

  3. Predictive value of pretreatment lymphocyte count in stage II colorectal cancer and in high-risk patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Lei; Zhu, Ji; Jia, Huixun; Huang, Liyong; Li, Dawei; Li, Qingguo; Li, Xinxiang

    2016-01-05

    Pretreatment lymphocyte count (LC) has been associated with prognosis and chemotherapy response in several cancers. The predictive value of LC for stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) and for high-risk patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) has not been determined. A retrospective review of prospectively collected data from 1332 consecutive stage II CRC patients who underwent curative tumor resection was conducted. A pretreatment LC value risk, 459 (62.2%) of whom received AC. Patients with low LCs had significantly worse 5-year OS (74.6% vs. 90.2%, p risk patients with low LCs had the poorest DFS (p value or combined with high-risk status were both independent prognostic factors(p risk, AC-treated patients with high LCs had significantly longer DFS than untreated patients (HR, 0.594; 95% CI, 0.364-0.970; p = 0.035). There was no difference or trend for DFS or OS in patients with low LCs, regardless of the use of AC (DFS, p = 0.692; OS, p = 0.522). Low LC was also independently associated with poorer DFS in high-risk, AC-treated patients (HR, 1.885; 95% CI, 1.112-3.196; p = 0.019). Pretreatment LC is an independent prognostic factor for survival in stage II CRC. Furthermore, pretreatment LC reliably predicts chemotherapeutic efficacy in high-risk patients with stage II CRC.

  4. Magnetic resonance imaging versus Acute Physiology And Chronic Healthy Evaluation II score in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Wei; Zhang Xiaoming; Xiao Bo; Zeng Nanlin; Pan Huashan; Feng Zhisong; Xu Xiaoxue

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To study the correlation between established magnetic resonance (MR) imaging criteria of disease severity in acute pancreatitis and the Acute Physiology And Chronic Healthy Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and to assess the utility of each prognostic indicators in acute pancreatitis. Materials and methods: In this study there were 94 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), all had abdominal MR imaging. MR findings were categorized into edematous and necrotizing AP and graded according to the MR severity index (MRSI). The APACHE II score was calculated within 24 h of admission, and local complications, death, duration of hospitalization and ICU were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed to determine their correlation. Results: In patients with pancreatitis, no significant correlation can be found between the APACHE II score and the MRSI score (P = 0.196). The MRSI score correlated well with morbidity (P = 0.006) but not with mortality (P = 0.137). The APACHE II score correlated well with mortality (P = 0.002) but not with the morbidity (P = 0.112). The MRSI score was superior to the APACHE II score as a predictor of the length of hospitalization (r = 0.52 vs. r = 0.35). A high MRSI and APACHE II score correlated with the need for being in the intensive care unit (ICU) (P = 0.000 and P = 0.000, respectively). Conclusion: In patients with pancreatitis, MRSI is superior to APACHE II in assessing local complications from pancreatitis but has a limited role in determining systemic complications in which the APACHE II score excels.

  5. DARWIN-HC: A Tool to Predict Hot Corrosion of Nickel-Based Turbine Disks, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Hot Corrosion of turbine engine components has been studied for many years. The underlying mechan-isms of Type I Hot Corrosion and Type II Hot Corrosion are...

  6. Determination of the potential radiation exposure of the population close to the Asse II mine caused by deduction of radioactive substances with the discharge air in the normal operation using the ''Atmospheric Radionuclide-Transport-Model'' (ARTM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esch, D.; Wittwer, C.

    2014-01-01

    Between 1967 and 1978 125.787 packages filled with low-level and intermediate-level radioactive waste were emplaced in the mining plant Asse II. Volatile radioactive substances like H-3, C-14 and Rn-222 are released from the emplaced waste. These substances reach the ventilated parts of the mine and are released with the discharge air. The potential radiation exposure of the population caused by deduction of radioactive substances with the discharge air in the normal operation is determined by the ''Atmospheric Radionuclide-Transport-Model'' (ARTM). As result the maximal deductions of volatile radioactive substances with the discharge air in the normal operation of the Asse II mine lead to radiation exposure of the population, which is considerably lower than the permissible values of application rate.

  7. Predictive value of PET-CT for pathological response in stages II and III breast cancer patients following neoadjuvant chemotherapy with docetaxel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García García-Esquinas, Marta A; Arrazola García, Juan; García-Sáenz, José A; Furió-Bacete, V; Fuentes Ferrer, Manuel E; Ortega Candil, Aída; Cabrera Martín, María N; Carreras Delgado, José L

    2014-01-01

    To prospectively study the value of PET-CT with fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) to predict neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) response of locoregional disease of stages II and III breast cancer patients. A written informed consent and approval were obtained from the Ethics Committee. PET-CT accuracy in the prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR) after NAC was studied in primary tumors and lymph node metastasis in 43 women (mean age: 50 years: range: 27-71 years) with histologically proven breast cancer between December 2009 and January 2011. PET-CT was performed at baseline and after NAC. SUV(max) percentage changes (ΔSUV(max)) were compared with pathology findings at surgery. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to discriminate between locoregional pCR and non-pCR. In patients not achieving pCR, it was investigated if ΔSUV(max) could accurately identify the residual cancer burden (RCB) classes: RCB-I (minimal residual disease (MRD)), RCB-II (moderate RD), and RCB-III (extensive RD). pCR was obtained in 11 patients (25.6%). Residual disease was found in 32 patients (74.4%): 16 (37.2%) RCB-I, 15 (35.6%) RCB-II and 2 (4.7%) RCB-III. Sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy to predict pCR were 90.9%, 90.6%, and 90.7%, respectively. Specificity was 94.1% in the identification of a subset of patients who had either pCR or MRD. Accuracy of ΔSUV(max) in the locoregional disease of stages II and III breast cancer patients after NAC is high for the identification of pCR cases. Its specificity is potentially sufficient to identify a subgroup of patients who could be managed with conservative surgery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and SEMNIM. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive values of urine paraquat concentration, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and APACHE II score in the prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao-Wei; Ma, Tao; Li, Lu-Lu; Qu, Bo; Liu, Zhi

    2017-07-01

    The present study investigated the predictive values of urine paraquat (PQ) concentration, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score in the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. A total of 194 patients with acute PQ poisoning, hospitalized between April 2012 and January 2014 at the First Affiliated Hospital of P.R. China Medical University (Shenyang, China), were selected and divided into survival and mortality groups. Logistic regression analysis, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve were applied to evaluate the values of urine paraquat (PQ) concentration, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and (APACHE) II score for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. Initial urine PQ concentration (C0), dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and APACHE II score of patients in the mortality group were significantly higher compared with the survival group (all Ppoison and arterial blood lactate correlated with mortality risk of acute PQ poisoning (all Ppoison, arterial blood lactate and APACHE II score in predicting the mortality of patients within 28 days were 0.921, 0.887, 0.808 and 0.648, respectively. The AUC of C0 for predicting early and delayed mortality were 0.890 and 0.764, respectively. The AUC values of urine paraquat concentration the day after poisoning (Csec) and the rebound rate of urine paraquat concentration in predicting the mortality of patients within 28 days were 0.919 and 0.805, respectively. The 28-day survival rate of patients with C0 ≤32.2 µg/ml (42/71; 59.2%) was significantly higher when compared with patients with C0 >32.2 µg/ml (38/123; 30.9%). These results suggest that the initial urine PQ concentration may be the optimal index for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. Additionally, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate, Csec and rebound rate also have referential significance.

  9. Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

    2008-01-01

    Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

  10. Artificial neural network-based predictive model for bacterial growth in a simulated medium of modified-atmosphere-packed cooked meat products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, W; Nakai, S

    2001-04-01

    The data of Devilieghere et al. (Int. J. Food Microbiol. 1999, 46, 57--70) on bacterial growth in a simulated medium of modified-atmosphere-packed cooked meat products was processed for estimating maximum specific growth rate mu(max) and lag phase lambda of Lactobacillus sake using artificial neural networks-based model (ANNM) computation. The comparison between ANNM and response surface methodology (RSM) model showed that the accuracy of ANNM prediction was higher than that of RSM. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional plots of the response surfaces revealed that the relationships of water activity a(w), temperature T, and dissolved CO(2) concentration with mu(max) and lambda were complicated, not just linear or second-order relations. Furthermore, it was possible to compute the sensitivity of the model outputs against each input parameter by using ANNM. The results showed that mu(max) was most sensitive to a(w), T, and dissolved CO(2) in this order; whereas lambda was sensitive to T the most, followed by a(w), and dissolved CO(2) concentrations.

  11. Establishing empirical relationships to predict porosity level and corrosion rate of atmospheric plasma-sprayed alumina coatings on AZ31B magnesium alloy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Thirumalaikumarasamy

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Plasma sprayed ceramic coatings are successfully used in many industrial applications, where high wear and corrosion resistance with thermal insulation are required. In this work, empirical relationships were developed to predict the porosity and corrosion rate of alumina coatings by incorporating independently controllable atmospheric plasma spray operational parameters (input power, stand-off distance and powder feed rate using response surface methodology (RSM. A central composite rotatable design with three factors and five levels was chosen to minimize the number of experimental conditions. Within the scope of the design space, the input power and the stand-off distance appeared to be the most significant two parameters affecting the responses among the three investigated process parameters. A linear regression relationship was also established between porosity and corrosion rate of the alumina coatings. Further, sensitivity analysis was carried out and compared with the relative impact of three process parameters on porosity level and corrosion rate to verify the measurement errors on the values of the uncertainty in estimated parameters.

  12. Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lue Ping; Carlsson, Annelie; Larsson, Helena Elding; Forsander, Gun; Ivarsson, Sten A; Kockum, Ingrid; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Marcus, Claude; Persson, Martina; Samuelsson, Ulf; Örtqvist, Eva; Pyo, Chul-Woo; Bolouri, Hamid; Zhao, Michael; Nelson, Wyatt C; Geraghty, Daniel E; Lernmark, Åke

    2017-11-01

    It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies. Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D. In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10 -92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime. Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Atmospheric contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruetter, Juerg

    1997-01-01

    It is about the levels of contamination in center America, the population's perception on the problem, effects of the atmospheric contamination, effects in the environment, causes of the atmospheric contamination, possibilities to reduce the atmospheric contamination and list of Roeco Swisscontac in atmospheric contamination

  14. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De-Sen

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment. PMID:27008710

  15. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jian-Hong; Fang, Yu-Jing; Li, Cai-Xia; Ou, Qing-Jian; Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De Sen

    2016-04-19

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

  16. Does the KABC-II Display Ethnic Bias in the Prediction of Reading, Math, and Writing in Elementary School Through High School?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheiber, Caroline

    2017-09-01

    This study explored whether the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children-Second Edition (KABC-II) predicted academic achievement outcomes of the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement-Second Edition (KTEA-II) equally well across a representative sample of African American, Hispanic, and Caucasian school-aged children ( N = 2,001) in three grade groups (1-4, 5-8, 9-12). It was of interest to study possible prediction bias in the slope and intercept of the five underlying Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) cognitive factors of the KABC-II-Sequential/Gsm (Short-Term Memory), Learning/Glr (Long-Term Storage and Retrieval), Simultaneous/Gv (Visual Processing), Planning/Gf (Fluid Reasoning), and Knowledge/Gc (Crystallized Ability)-in estimating reading, writing, and math. Structural equation modeling techniques demonstrated a lack of bias in the slopes; however, four of the five CHC indexes showed a persistent overprediction of the minority groups' achievement in the intercept. The overprediction is likely attributable to institutional or societal contributions, which limit the students' ability to achieve to their fullest potential.

  17. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II production is a strong predictive marker for extrahepatic metastases in early hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Hyun-Mi; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Yoon, Jung-Hwan; Kim, Yoon Jun; Heo, Dae Seog; Lee, Hyo-Suk

    2011-01-01

    Clinicians often experience extrahepatic metastases associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even if no evidence of intrahepatic recurrence after treatment is observed. We investigated the pretreatment predictors of extrahepatic metastases in HCC patients. Patients diagnosed with HCC without evidence of extrahepatic metastases were prospectively enrolled. We evaluated the correlation between extrahepatic metastases and pretreatment clinical variables, including serum tumor markers. A total of 354 patients were included. Seventy-six patients (21%) had extrahepatic metastases during the observation period (median, 25.3 months; range, 0.6-51.3 months). Cox regression multivariate analysis showed that serum protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) production levels, the intrahepatic tumor stage, platelet count, and portal vein thrombosis were independent risk factors for extrahepatic metastases. Patients with a PIVKA-II production ≥ 300 mAU/mL had a 2.7-fold (95% confidence interval; 1.5-4.8; P < 0.001) and 3.7-fold (95% confidence interval; 2.0-6.6; P < 0.001) increased risk for extrahepatic metastases after adjustment for stage, platelet count, alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/mL, and portal vein thrombosis according to the AJCC and BCLC staging systems, respectively. PIVKA-II production levels might be a good candidate predictive marker for extrahepatic HCC metastases, especially in patients with smaller and/or fewer tumors in the liver with in stages regardless of serum alpha-fetoprotein

  18. Predicting germination in semi-arid wildland seedbeds II. Field validation of wet thermal-time models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Rawlins; Bruce A. Roundy; Dennis Eggett; Nathan. Cline

    2011-01-01

    Accurate prediction of germination for species used for semi-arid land revegetation would support selection of plant materials for specific climatic conditions and sites. Wet thermal-time models predict germination time by summing progress toward germination subpopulation percentages as a function of temperature across intermittent wet periods or within singular wet...

  19. NN-align. An artificial neural network-based alignment algorithm for MHC class II peptide binding prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lund, Ole

    2009-01-01

    this binding event. RESULTS: Here, we present a novel artificial neural network-based method, NN-align that allows for simultaneous identification of the MHC class II binding core and binding affinity. NN-align is trained using a novel training algorithm that allows for correction of bias in the training data...

  20. Scaling of Dielectric Breakdown Thresholds in Earth's and CO2-rich atmospheres: Impact for Predictions of Extraterrestrial Transient Luminous Events and Lightning Discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riousset, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Earth's atmospheric electricity manifests itself in the form of glow, corona, streamer, and leader discharges observed as Saint Elmo's fire, sprites, lightning and jets discharges, and other Transient Luminous Events (TLEs). All of these are types of dielectric breakdown, but are governed by different physics. In particular, their initiation is associated with the crossing of specific electric field thresholds: relativistic runaway, streamer propagation, conventional breakdown, or thermal runaway thresholds, some better understood than others. For example, the initiation of a lightning discharge is known to occur when the local electric field exceeds a value similar to relativistic runaway field, but the exact threshold, as well as the physical mechanisms at work, remain rather unclear to date. Scaling laws for electric fields (and other quantities) have been established by Pasko et al. [GRL, 25(12), 2123-2126, 1998] and Pasko [NATO Sci. Series, Springer, 253-311, 2006]. In this work, we develop profiles for initiation criteria in air and in other atmospheric environments. We further calculate their associated scaling laws to determine the ability to trigger lightning flashes and TLEs in our solar system. This lets us predict the likelihood of electrical discharges on, e.g., Mars, Venus and Titan, and calculate the expected electric field conditions, under which discharges have been observed on Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune [Leblanc et al., ISSI Spa. Sci. Series, Springer, 2008, Yair, Adv. Space Res., 50(3), 293-310, 2012]. Our results anticipate the arrival of ExoMars 2016's Schiaparelli module, which will provide the first records of electric field at the surface of the planet [Déprez et al., EGU GA, 16, 16613, 2014]. This research is also motived by the increasing probability of manned missions to Mars and the potential electrostatic hazards it may face [Yair, 2012], and by the role of electrical discharges in the creation of active radicals, some of

  1. Atmospheric neutrino challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanev, Todor [Bartol Research Institute, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 (United States)

    2005-08-15

    We briefly review the improvements in the predictions of atmospheric neutrino fluxes since the NOW2000 workshop. In spite of the great progress of the calculational technique the predictions are still not exact because of the uncertainties in the two major sets of input - cosmic ray flux and hadronic interactions on light nuclei.

  2. Using Pop-II models to predict effects of wolf predation and hunter harvests on elk, mule deer, and moose on the northern range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, John A.; Singer, Francis J.

    1993-01-01

    The effects of establishing a gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park were predicted for three ungulate species—elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and moose (Alces alces)—using previously developed POP-II population models. We developed models for 78 and 100 wolves. For each wolf population, we ran scenarios using wolf predation rates of 9, 12, and 15 ungulates/wolf/year. With 78 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our modeled elk population estimated were 5-18% smaller than the model estimate without wolves. With 100 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our elk population estimated were 11-30% smaller than the population estimates without wolves. Wolf predation effects were greater on the modeled mule deer population than on elk. With 78 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, we predicted the mule deer population could be 13-44% larger than without wolves. With 100 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, the mule deer population was 0-36% larger than without wolves. After wolf recovery, our POP-II models suggested moose harvests would have to be reduced at least 50% to maintain moose numbers at the levels predicted when wolves were not present. Mule deer and moose population data are limited, and these wolf predation effects may be overestimated if population sizes or male-female ratios were underestimated in our population models. We recommend additional mule deer and moose population data be obtained.

  3. Decomposition Characteristics of Benzene, Toluene and Xylene in an Atmospheric Pressure DC Corona Discharge II. Characteristics of Deposited By-products and Decomposition Process

    OpenAIRE

    SAKAI, Seiji; TAKAHASHI, Kazuhiro; SATOH, Kohki; ITOH, Hidenori

    2016-01-01

    Gaseous by-products and deposited material obtained from the decomposition of benzene, toluene and xylene in an atmospheric pressure DC corona discharge were minutely investigated by gas chromatograph mass spectrometry and infrared absorption spectroscopy, and the decomposition processes of benzene, toluene and xylene were estimated. It was found that carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), formic acid (HCOOH) and formic anhydride ((CHO)2) were the major gaseous by-products from benzene, ...

  4. Unifying Dynamic Prognostic Phenology, Heterogeneous Soil and Vegetation Fluxes, and Ecosystem Biomass and Carbon Stocks To Predict the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle and Land-Atmosphere Exchanges in the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, K. D.; Baker, I. T.; Denning, S.

    2016-12-01

    Future climate projections require process-based models that incorporate the mechanisms and feedbacks controlling the carbon cycle. Over the past three decades, land surface models have been key contributors to Earth system models, evolving from predicting latent (LE) and sensible (SH) heat fluxes to energy and water budgets, momentum transfer, and terrestrial carbon exchange and storage. This study presents the latest version of the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4), which builds on a compilation of previous versions and adds a new mechanistic-based scheme that fully predicts the terrestrial carbon cycle. The main SiB4 updates can be summarized as follows: (i) Incorporation of carbon pools that use new respiration and transfer methods, (ii) Creation of a new dynamic phenology scheme that uses mechanistic-based seasonal stages, and (iii) Unification of carbon pools, phenology and disturbance to close the carbon cycle. SiB4 removes the dependence on satellite-based vegetation indices, and instead uses a single mathematical framework to prognose self-consistent land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, energy, radiation, and momentum, as well as carbon storage. Since grasslands cover 30% of land and are highly seasonal, we investigated forty grass sites. Diurnal cycles of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), LE and SH have third-quartile root mean squared (RMS) errors less than 2.0 µmol m-2 s-1, 1.9 µmol m-2 s-1, 2.0 µmol m-2 s-1, 42 W m-2, and 78 W m-2, respectively. On the synoptic timeframe, all sites have significant LE correlation coefficients of non-seasonal daily data; and all but one have significant SH correlations. Mean seasonal cycles for leaf area index (LAI), GPP, RE, LE, and SH have third-quartile normalized RMS errors less than 32%, 25%, 28%, 16%, and 48%, respectively. On multi-year timescales, daily correlations of LAI, GPP, RE, and LE are all statistically significant, with third-quartile RMS

  5. Adsorption of volatile polonium species on metals in various gas atmospheres. Pt. II. Adsorption of volatile polonium on platinum, silver and palladium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maugeri, Emilio Andrea; Joerg Neuhausen; Dressler, Rugard; Piguet, David; Voegele, Alexander; Schumann, Dorothea [Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland). Lab. for Radiochemistry; Misiak, Ryszard [The Henryk Niewodniczanski Institute of Nuclear Physics, Krakow (Poland); Eichler, Robert [Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland). Lab. for Radiochemistry; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Dept. for Chemistry and Biochemistry

    2016-07-01

    This work presents the results obtained from studying the interaction between polonium compounds formed in different atmospheres and platinum, palladium and silver surfaces obtained by thermochromatography. These results are of crucial importance for the design of cover gas filter systems for lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE)-based nuclear facilities such as accelerator driven systems (ADS). The results obtained from studying the interaction of polonium and platinum under inert atmosphere and reducing atmospheres with and without addition of moisture show that polonium is deposited at temperatures between 993 and 1221 K, with adsorption enthalpies ranging from -235 to -291 kJ mol{sup -1}, indicating a very strong adsorption of the polonium species present on platinum surfaces. The interaction between polonium and silver was investigated using purified inert, reducing and oxidizing carrier gases. Results show a deposition temperature between 867 and 990 K, with adsorption enthalpies ranging from -205 to -234 kJ mol{sup -1}. The interaction of polonium and palladium was studied in purified helium and purified hydrogen. For both conditions a deposition temperature of 1221 K was observed corresponding to an adsorption enthalpy of -340 kJ mol{sup -1}. No highly volatile polonium species was formed at any of the applied experimental conditions.

  6. Surface roughness considerations for atmospheric correction of ocean color sensors. I - The Rayleigh-scattering component. II - Error in the retrieved water-leaving radiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Howard R.; Wang, Menghua

    1992-01-01

    The first step in the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) atmospheric-correction algorithm is the computation of the Rayleigh-scattering (RS) contribution, L sub r, to the radiance leaving the top of the atmosphere over the ocean. In the present algorithm, L sub r is computed by assuming that the ocean surface is flat. Calculations of the radiance leaving an RS atmosphere overlying a rough Fresnel-reflecting ocean are presented to evaluate the radiance error caused by the flat-ocean assumption. Simulations are carried out to evaluate the error incurred when the CZCS-type algorithm is applied to a realistic ocean in which the surface is roughened by the wind. In situations where there is no direct sun glitter, it is concluded that the error induced by ignoring the Rayleigh-aerosol interaction is usually larger than that caused by ignoring the surface roughness. This suggests that, in refining algorithms for future sensors, more effort should be focused on dealing with the Rayleigh-aerosol interaction than on the roughness of the sea surface.

  7. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  8. Prediction of near-term increases in suicidal ideation in recently depressed patients with bipolar II disorder using intensive longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depp, Colin A; Thompson, Wesley K; Frank, Ellen; Swartz, Holly A

    2017-01-15

    There are substantial gaps in understanding near-term precursors of suicidal ideation in bipolar II disorder. We evaluated whether repeated patient-reported mood and energy ratings predicted subsequent near-term increases in suicide ideation. Secondary data were used from 86 depressed adults with bipolar II disorder enrolled in one of 3 clinical trials evaluating Interpersonal and Social Rhythm Therapy and/or pharmacotherapy as treatments for depression. Twenty weeks of daily mood and energy ratings and weekly Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) were obtained. Penalized regression was used to model trajectories of daily mood and energy ratings in the 3 week window prior to HDRS Suicide Item ratings. Participants completed an average of 68.6 (sd=52) days of mood and energy ratings. Aggregated across the sample, 22% of the 1675 HDRS Suicide Item ratings were non-zero, indicating presence of at least some suicidal thoughts. A cross-validated model with longitudinal ratings of energy and depressed mood within the three weeks prior to HDRS ratings resulted in an AUC of 0.91 for HDRS Suicide item >2, accounting for twice the variation when compared to baseline HDRS ratings. Energy, both at low and high levels, was an earlier predictor than mood. Data derived from a heterogeneous treated sample may not generalize to naturalistic samples. Identified suicidal behavior was absent from the sample so it could not be predicted. Prediction models coupled with intensively gathered longitudinal data may shed light on the dynamic course of near-term risk factors for suicidal ideation in bipolar II disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Durability of bare and anodised aluminium in atmosphere of very different corrosivities. II Anodised aluminium; Durabilidad del aluminio desnudo y anodizado en atmosfera de muy diferentes corrosividades. II. Aluminio anodizado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, V.; Escudero, E.; Gonzalez, J. A.; Otero, E.; Morcillo, M.

    2004-07-01

    The behaviour of three anodic films with thicknesses of approximately 7, 17 and 28 {mu}m is studied in atmospheric exposure at 11 natural testing stations with salinity levels ranging between 2.1 and 684 mg Cl''- m''-2 d''-1. To evaluate the results, use was made of gravimetric techniques, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), EDX microanalysis, standard quality control tests, optical microscopy and, occasionally, electron microscopy. It is shown that anodising with correct sealing is an appropriate solution for preventing localised corrosion of aluminium and conserving its appearance, even in atmospheres of high corrosivity, provided that an ill-defined minimum thickness threshold is passed. The 7 {mu}m anodic films suffer corrosion after the second annual cycle in the most aggressive environments. Corrosion, when it occurs, is localised in the form of pitting or filiform corrosion. (Author) 23 refs.

  10. Atmospheric emissions of Cu and Zn from coal combustion in China: Spatio-temporal distribution, human health effects, and short-term prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui; Li, Junlin; Cui, Lulu; Wu, Yu; Fu, Hongbo; Chen, Jianmin; Chen, Mindong

    2017-10-01

    China has become the largest coal consumer and important emitter of trace metals in the world. A multiple-year inventory of atmospheric copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) emissions from coal combustion in 30 provinces of China and 4 economic sectors (power plant, industry sector, residential sector, and others) for the period of 1995-2014 has been calculated. The results indicated that the total emissions of Cu and Zn increased from 5137.70 t and 11484.16 t in 1995-7099.24 t and 14536.61 t in 2014, at an annual average growth rate of 1.90% and 1.33%, respectively. The industrial sector ranked as the leading source, followed by power plants, the residential use, and other sectors. The emissions of Cu and Zn were predominantly concentrated in the northern and eastern regions of China due to the enormous consumption of coal by the industrial and the power sectors. The emissions of Cu and Zn were closely associated with mortality and life expectancy (LE) on the basis of multiple regression analysis. Spatial econometric models suggested that Cu and Zn emissions displayed significantly positive relevance with mortality, while they exhibited negative correlation with LE. The influence of the Cu emission peaked in the north of China for both mortality and LE, while the impacts of the Zn emission on mortality and LE reached a maximum value in Xinjiang Province. The results of the grey prediction model suggested that the Cu emission would decrease to 5424.73 t, whereas the Zn emissions could reach 17402.13 t in 2020. Analysis of more specific data are imperative in order to estimate the emissions of both metals, to assess their human health effects, and then to adopt effective measures to prevent environmental pollution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Major histocompatibility complex class II compatibility, but not class I, predicts mate choice in a bird with highly developed olfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strandh, Maria; Westerdahl, Helena; Pontarp, Mikael; Canbäck, Björn; Dubois, Marie-Pierre; Miquel, Christian; Taberlet, Pierre; Bonadonna, Francesco

    2012-11-07

    Mate choice for major histocompatibility complex (MHC) compatibility has been found in several taxa, although rarely in birds. MHC is a crucial component in adaptive immunity and by choosing an MHC-dissimilar partner, heterozygosity and potentially broad pathogen resistance is maximized in the offspring. The MHC genotype influences odour cues and preferences in mammals and fish and hence olfactory-based mate choice can occur. We tested whether blue petrels, Halobaena caerulea, choose partners based on MHC compatibility. This bird is long-lived, monogamous and can discriminate between individual odours using olfaction, which makes it exceptionally well suited for this analysis. We screened MHC class I and II B alleles in blue petrels using 454-pyrosequencing and quantified the phylogenetic, functional and allele-sharing similarity between individuals. Partners were functionally more dissimilar at the MHC class II B loci than expected from random mating (p = 0.033), whereas there was no such difference at the MHC class I loci. Phylogenetic and non-sequence-based MHC allele-sharing measures detected no MHC dissimilarity between partners for either MHC class I or II B. Our study provides evidence of mate choice for MHC compatibility in a bird with a high dependency on odour cues, suggesting that MHC odour-mediated mate choice occurs in birds.

  12. (18)F-alfatide II and (18)F-FDG dual-tracer dynamic PET for parametric, early prediction of tumor response to therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jinxia; Guo, Ning; Lang, Lixin; Kiesewetter, Dale O; Xie, Qingguo; Li, Quanzheng; Eden, Henry S; Niu, Gang; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2014-01-01

    or (18)F-FDG were observed, both (18)F-alfatide II Bp and (18)F-FDG influx from kinetic analysis in tumors showed significant decreases. For therapy of MDA-MB-435 tumors with paclitaxel protein-bound particles, a significant decrease was observed only with (18)F-alfatide II Bp value from kinetic analysis but not (18)F-FDG influx. The parameters fitted with compartmental modeling from the dual-tracer dynamic imaging are consistent with those from single-tracer imaging, substantiating the feasibility of this methodology. Even though no significant differences in tumor size were found until 5 d after doxorubicin treatment started, at day 3 there were already substantial differences in (18)F-alfatide II Bp and (18)F-FDG influx rate. Dual-tracer imaging can measure (18)F-alfatide II Bp value and (18)F-FDG influx simultaneously to evaluate tumor angiogenesis and metabolism. Such changes are known to precede anatomic changes, and thus parametric imaging may offer the promise of early prediction of therapy response.

  13. An estimation of impact of anthropogenic aerosols in atmosphere of Tirana on solar insolation. Part II: Modification of solar energy potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buzra, Urim, E-mail: rimibuzra@yahoo.com; Berberi, Pellumb; Mitrushi, Driada; Muda, Valbona [Department of Engineering Physics, FIMIF, PUT, Tirana (Albania); Halili, Daniela [Department of physics, FNS, AXHU, Elbasan (Albania); Berdufi, Irma [Institute of Nuclear Physics, INP, TU, Tirana (Albania)

    2016-03-25

    Change of irradiative properties of the atmosphere during clear days is an indicator, among others, of existence of atmospheric aerosols and can be used as an indicator for assessment both air pollution and local modifications of solar energy potentials. The main objective of this study is estimation of influence of anthropogenic aerosols on solar energy falling in a horizontal surface during a cloudless day. We have analyzed and quantified the effect of aerosols on reducing the amount of solar energy that falls on the horizontal ground surface in cloudless sky conditions, estimating temporal evolution, both in daily and hour scale, considering also, side effects caused by relative humidity of the air wind speed and geometric factor. As an indicator of concentration of aerosols in atmosphere, we agreed to use the attenuation of solar radiation after the last rainy day. All data were corrected by factors such as, variations of relative humidity, wind speed and daily change of incident angle of solar radiation. We studied the change of solar insolation in three sites with different traffic intensity, one in city of Shkodra and two in city of Tirana. Fifteen days after last rainy day, approximate time needed to achieve saturation, the insolation drops only 3.1% in the city of Shkodra, while in two sites in city of Tirana are 8.5 % and 18.4%. These data show that reduction of solar insolation is closely related with anthropogenic activity, mainly traffic around the site of the meteorological station. The day to day difference tends to decrease with increasing of number of days passed from the last rainy day, which is an evidence of a trend toward a dynamic equilibrium between decantation process of aerosols during the night and their generation during the day.

  14. DFT predictions, synthesis, stoichiometric structures and anti-diabetic activity of Cu (II) and Fe (III) complexes of quercetin, morin, and primuletin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabeen, Erum; Janjua, Naveed Kausar; Ahmed, Safeer; Murtaza, Iram; Ali, Tahir; Masood, Nosheen; Rizvi, Aysha Sarfraz; Murtaza, Gulam

    2017-12-01

    The current study is aimed at the synthesis of Cu (II) and Fe (III) complexes of three flavonoids {morin (mor), quercetin (quer) and primuletin (prim)} and characterization through UV-Vis spectroscopy, cyclic voltammetry, FTIR, and thermal analysis. Structure prediction through DFT calculation was supported by experimental data. Benesi-Hildebrand equation was modified to function for 1:2 Cu-flavonoid and 1:3 Fe-flavonoid complexes. DFT predictions revealed that out of poly chelation sites present in morin and quercetin, 3-OH site was utilized as preferable chelation site while primuletin chelated through 5-OH position. In-vivo trials revealed the complexes to have better anti-diabetic potential than respective flavonoid. Fls/M-Fls proved as antagonistic to Alloxan induced diabetes and also retained anti-diabetic activity even in the presence of (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin (HPβCD).

  15. XUV-exposed, non-hydrostatic hydrogen-rich upper atmospheres of terrestrial planets. Part II: hydrogen coronae and ion escape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kislyakova, Kristina G; Lammer, Helmut; Holmström, Mats; Panchenko, Mykhaylo; Odert, Petra; Erkaev, Nikolai V; Leitzinger, Martin; Khodachenko, Maxim L; Kulikov, Yuri N; Güdel, Manuel; Hanslmeier, Arnold

    2013-11-01

    We studied the interactions between the stellar wind plasma flow of a typical M star, such as GJ 436, and the hydrogen-rich upper atmosphere of an Earth-like planet and a "super-Earth" with a radius of 2 R(Earth) and a mass of 10 M(Earth), located within the habitable zone at ∼0.24 AU. We investigated the formation of extended atomic hydrogen coronae under the influences of the stellar XUV flux (soft X-rays and EUV), stellar wind density and velocity, shape of a planetary obstacle (e.g., magnetosphere, ionopause), and the loss of planetary pickup ions on the evolution of hydrogen-dominated upper atmospheres. Stellar XUV fluxes that are 1, 10, 50, and 100 times higher compared to that of the present-day Sun were considered, and the formation of high-energy neutral hydrogen clouds around the planets due to the charge-exchange reaction under various stellar conditions was modeled. Charge-exchange between stellar wind protons with planetary hydrogen atoms, and photoionization, lead to the production of initially cold ions of planetary origin. We found that the ion production rates for the studied planets can vary over a wide range, from ∼1.0×10²⁵ s⁻¹ to ∼5.3×10³⁰ s⁻¹, depending on the stellar wind conditions and the assumed XUV exposure of the upper atmosphere. Our findings indicate that most likely the majority of these planetary ions are picked up by the stellar wind and lost from the planet. Finally, we estimated the long-time nonthermal ion pickup escape for the studied planets and compared them with the thermal escape. According to our estimates, nonthermal escape of picked-up ionized hydrogen atoms over a planet's lifetime within the habitable zone of an M dwarf varies between ∼0.4 Earth ocean equivalent amounts of hydrogen (EO(H)) to <3 EO(H) and usually is several times smaller in comparison to the thermal atmospheric escape rates.

  16. A multi-layer discrete-ordinate method for vector radiative transfer in a vertically-inhomogeneous, emitting and scattering atmosphere. I - Theory. II - Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Fuzhong

    1992-01-01

    A theory is developed for discretizing the vector integro-differential radiative transfer equation including both solar and thermal radiation. A complete solution and boundary equations are obtained using the discrete-ordinate method. An efficient numerical procedure is presented for calculating the phase matrix and achieving computational stability. With natural light used as a beam source, the Stokes parameters from the model proposed here are compared with the analytical solutions of Chandrasekhar (1960) for a Rayleigh scattering atmosphere. The model is then applied to microwave frequencies with a thermal source, and the brightness temperatures are compared with those from Stamnes'(1988) radiative transfer model.

  17. Atmospheric deposition of trace elements around point sources and human health risk assessment. II: Uptake of arsenic and chromium by vegetables grown near a wood preservation factory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Erik Huusfeldt; Moseholm, Lars; Nielsen, Margot M.

    1992-01-01

    Kale, lettuce, carrots and potatoes were grown in 20 experimental plots surrounding a wood preservation factory, to investigate the amount and pathways for plant uptake of arsenic and chromium. Arsenate used in the wood preservation process is converted to the more toxic arsenite by incineration...... of waste wood and is emitted into the atmosphere. Elevated concentrations of inorganic arsenic and chromium were found both in the test plants and in the soil around the factory. Multivariate statistical analysis of the results indicated that the dominating pathway of arsenic and chromium from the factory...

  18. Atmospheres of Brown Dwarfs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruoyan; Seay, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    We construct a grid of brown dwarf model atmospheres spanning a wide range of atmospheric metallicity (0.3x ≤ met ≤ 100x), C/O ratios (0.25x ≤ C/O ≤ 2.5x), and cloud properties, encompassing atmospheres of effective temperatures 200 ≤ Teff ≤ 2400 K and gravities 2.5 ≤ log g ≤ 5.5. We produce the expected temperature-pressure profiles and emergent spectra from an atmosphere in radiative-convective equilibrium. We can then compare our predicted spectra to observations and retrieval results to aid in their predictions and influence future missions and telescopic observations. In our poster we briefly describe our modeling methodology and present our progress on model grid construction, spanning solar and subsolar C/O and metallicity.

  19. Atmospheric release advisory capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, T.J.

    1981-01-01

    The ARAC system (Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability) is described. The system is a collection of people, computers, computer models, topographic data and meteorological input data that together permits a calculation of, in a quasi-predictive sense, where effluent from an accident will migrate through the atmosphere, where it will be deposited on the ground, and what instantaneous and integrated dose an exposed individual would receive

  20. Predicting the mixed-mode I/II spatial damage propagation along 3D-printed soft interfacial layer via a hyperelastic softening model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lei; Li, Yaning

    2018-07-01

    A methodology was developed to use a hyperelastic softening model to predict the constitutive behavior and the spatial damage propagation of nonlinear materials with damage-induced softening under mixed-mode loading. A user subroutine (ABAQUS/VUMAT) was developed for numerical implementation of the model. 3D-printed wavy soft rubbery interfacial layer was used as a material system to verify and validate the methodology. The Arruda - Boyce hyperelastic model is incorporated with the softening model to capture the nonlinear pre-and post- damage behavior of the interfacial layer under mixed Mode I/II loads. To characterize model parameters of the 3D-printed rubbery interfacial layer, a series of scarf-joint specimens were designed, which enabled systematic variation of stress triaxiality via a single geometric parameter, the slant angle. It was found that the important model parameter m is exponentially related to the stress triaxiality. Compact tension specimens of the sinusoidal wavy interfacial layer with different waviness were designed and fabricated via multi-material 3D printing. Finite element (FE) simulations were conducted to predict the spatial damage propagation of the material within the wavy interfacial layer. Compact tension experiments were performed to verify the model prediction. The results show that the model developed is able to accurately predict the damage propagation of the 3D-printed rubbery interfacial layer under complicated stress-state without pre-defined failure criteria.

  1. Mortality in severe trauma patients attended by emergency services in Navarre, Spain: validation of a new prediction model and comparison with the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali Ali, Bismil; Lefering, Rolf; Fortún Moral, Mariano; Belzunegui Otano, Tomás

    2018-01-01

    To validate the Mortality Prediction Model of Navarre (MPMN) to predict death after severe trauma and compare it to the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II (RISCII). Retrospective analysis of a cohort of severe trauma patients (New Injury Severity Score >15) who were attended by emergency services in the Spanish autonomous community of Navarre between 2013 and 2015. The outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. Risk was calculated with the MPMN and the RISCII. The performance of each model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and precision with respect to observed mortality. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We included 516 patients. The mean (SD) age was 56 (23) years, and 363 (70%) were males. Ninety patients (17.4%) died within 30 days. The 30-day mortality rates predicted by the MPMN and RISCII were 16.4% and 15.4%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.925 (95% CI, 0.902-0.952) for the MPMN and 0.941 (95% CI, 0.921-0.962) for the RISCII (P=0.269, DeLong test). Calibration statistics were 13.6 (P=.09) for the MPMN and 8.9 (P=.35) for the RISCII. Both the MPMN and the RISCII show good ability to discriminate risk and predict 30-day all-cause mortality in severe trauma patients.

  2. A systematic review of the factors associated with interest in predictive genetic testing for obesity, type II diabetes and heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, J; Ryan, L; Truby, H

    2014-10-01

    In the future, it may be possible for individuals to take a genetic test to determine their genetic predisposition towards developing lifestyle-related chronic diseases. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to identify the factors associated with an interest in having predictive genetic testing for obesity, type II diabetes and heart disease amongst unaffected adults. Ovid Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE online databases were searched using predefined search terms. Publications meeting the inclusion criteria (English language, free-living adult population not selected as a result of their disease diagnosis, reporting interest as an outcome, not related to a single gene inherited disease) were assessed for quality and content. Narrative synthesis of the results was undertaken. From the 2329 publications retrieved, eight studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Overall, the evidence base was small but of positive quality. Interest was associated with personal attitudes towards disease risk and the provision of information about genetic testing, shaped by perceived risk of disease and expected outcomes of testing. The role of demographic factors was investigated with largely inconclusive findings. Interest in predictive genetic testing for obesity, type II diabetes or heart disease was greatest amongst those who perceived the risk of disease to be high and/or the outcomes of testing to be beneficial. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  3. PECITIS-II, a computer program to predict the performance of collapsible clad UO2 fuel elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anand, A.K.; Anantharaman, K.; Sarda, V.

    1978-01-01

    The Indian power programme envisages the use of PHWRs, which use collapsible clad UO 2 fuel elements. A computer code, PECITIS-II, developed for the analysis of this type of fuel is described in detail. The sheath strain and fission gas pressure are evaluated by this method. The pellet clad gap conductance is calculated by Ross and Solute model. The pellet thermal expansion is calculated by assuming a two zone model, i.e. a plastic core surrounded by an elastic cracked annulus. (author)

  4. XUV-Exposed, Non-Hydrostatic Hydrogen-Rich Upper Atmospheres of Terrestrial Planets. Part II: Hydrogen Coronae and Ion Escape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammer, Helmut; Holmström, Mats; Panchenko, Mykhaylo; Odert, Petra; Erkaev, Nikolai V.; Leitzinger, Martin; Khodachenko, Maxim L.; Kulikov, Yuri N.; Güdel, Manuel; Hanslmeier, Arnold

    2013-01-01

    Abstract We studied the interactions between the stellar wind plasma flow of a typical M star, such as GJ 436, and the hydrogen-rich upper atmosphere of an Earth-like planet and a “super-Earth” with a radius of 2 REarth and a mass of 10 MEarth, located within the habitable zone at ∼0.24 AU. We investigated the formation of extended atomic hydrogen coronae under the influences of the stellar XUV flux (soft X-rays and EUV), stellar wind density and velocity, shape of a planetary obstacle (e.g., magnetosphere, ionopause), and the loss of planetary pickup ions on the evolution of hydrogen-dominated upper atmospheres. Stellar XUV fluxes that are 1, 10, 50, and 100 times higher compared to that of the present-day Sun were considered, and the formation of high-energy neutral hydrogen clouds around the planets due to the charge-exchange reaction under various stellar conditions was modeled. Charge-exchange between stellar wind protons with planetary hydrogen atoms, and photoionization, lead to the production of initially cold ions of planetary origin. We found that the ion production rates for the studied planets can vary over a wide range, from ∼1.0×1025 s−1 to ∼5.3×1030 s−1, depending on the stellar wind conditions and the assumed XUV exposure of the upper atmosphere. Our findings indicate that most likely the majority of these planetary ions are picked up by the stellar wind and lost from the planet. Finally, we estimated the long-time nonthermal ion pickup escape for the studied planets and compared them with the thermal escape. According to our estimates, nonthermal escape of picked-up ionized hydrogen atoms over a planet's lifetime within the habitable zone of an M dwarf varies between ∼0.4 Earth ocean equivalent amounts of hydrogen (EOH) to stars—Early atmospheres—Earth-like exoplanets—Energetic neutral atoms—Ion escape—Habitability. Astrobiology 13, 1030–1048. PMID:24283926

  5. The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: II. Spatial and Temporal Homogeneity of Satellite Data Retrieval Due to Systematic Effects in Atmospheric Correction Processors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Dagmar; Krasemann, Hajo; Brewin, Robert J. W.; Brockmann, Carsten; Deschamps, Pierre-Yves; Fomferra, Norman; Franz, Bryan A.; Grant, Mike G.; Groom, Steve B.; Melin, Frederic; hide

    2015-01-01

    The established procedure to access the quality of atmospheric correction processors and their underlying algorithms is the comparison of satellite data products with related in-situ measurements. Although this approach addresses the accuracy of derived geophysical properties in a straight forward fashion, it is also limited in its ability to catch systematic sensor and processor dependent behaviour of satellite products along the scan-line, which might impair the usefulness of the data in spatial analyses. The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) aims to create an ocean colour dataset on a global scale to meet the demands of the ecosystem modelling community. The need for products with increasing spatial and temporal resolution that also show as little systematic and random errors as possible, increases. Due to cloud cover, even temporal means can be influenced by along-scanline artefacts if the observations are not balanced and effects cannot be cancelled out mutually. These effects can arise from a multitude of results which are not easily separated, if at all. Among the sources of artefacts, there are some sensor-specific calibration issues which should lead to similar responses in all processors, as well as processor-specific features which correspond with the individual choices in the algorithms. A set of methods is proposed and applied to MERIS data over two regions of interest in the North Atlantic and the South Pacific Gyre. The normalised water leaving reflectance products of four atmospheric correction processors, which have also been evaluated in match-up analysis, is analysed in order to find and interpret systematic effects across track. These results are summed up with a semi-objective ranking and are used as a complement to the match-up analysis in the decision for the best Atmospheric Correction (AC) processor. Although the need for discussion remains concerning the absolutes by which to judge an AC processor, this example demonstrates

  6. Predictive modeling of infrared radiative heating in tomato dry-peeling process: Part II. Model validation and sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    A predictive mathematical model was developed to simulate heat transfer in a tomato undergoing double sided infrared (IR) heating in a dry-peeling process. The aims of this study were to validate the developed model using experimental data and to investigate different engineering parameters that mos...

  7. Exchange-Hole Dipole Dispersion Model for Accurate Energy Ranking in Molecular Crystal Structure Prediction II: Nonplanar Molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittleton, Sarah R; Otero-de-la-Roza, A; Johnson, Erin R

    2017-11-14

    The crystal structure prediction (CSP) of a given compound from its molecular diagram is a fundamental challenge in computational chemistry with implications in relevant technological fields. A key component of CSP is the method to calculate the lattice energy of a crystal, which allows the ranking of candidate structures. This work is the second part of our investigation to assess the potential of the exchange-hole dipole moment (XDM) dispersion model for crystal structure prediction. In this article, we study the relatively large, nonplanar, mostly flexible molecules in the first five blind tests held by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. Four of the seven experimental structures are predicted as the energy minimum, and thermal effects are demonstrated to have a large impact on the ranking of at least another compound. As in the first part of this series, delocalization error affects the results for a single crystal (compound X), in this case by detrimentally overstabilizing the π-conjugated conformation of the monomer. Overall, B86bPBE-XDM correctly predicts 16 of the 21 compounds in the five blind tests, a result similar to the one obtained using the best CSP method available to date (dispersion-corrected PW91 by Neumann et al.). Perhaps more importantly, the systems for which B86bPBE-XDM fails to predict the experimental structure as the energy minimum are mostly the same as with Neumann's method, which suggests that similar difficulties (absence of vibrational free energy corrections, delocalization error,...) are not limited to B86bPBE-XDM but affect GGA-based DFT-methods in general. Our work confirms B86bPBE-XDM as an excellent option for crystal energy ranking in CSP and offers a guide to identify crystals (organic salts, conjugated flexible systems) where difficulties may appear.

  8. Quality-Controlled Underway Oceanographic and Meteorological Data from the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Predictions Center (COAPS) - Shipboard Automated Meteorological and Oceanographic System (SAMOS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Florida State University has been operating a data assembly center (DAC) to collect, quality evaluate, and distribute Shipboard Automated Meteorological and...

  9. Comparing the Suitability of Autodock, Gold and Glide for the Docking and Predicting the Possible Targets of Ru(II-Based Complexes as Anticancer Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adebayo A. Adeniyi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In cancer chemotherapy, metal-based complexes have been recognized as the most promising means of inhibiting cancer growth due to the successful application of cis-platin and its derivatives above many of the existing organic anticancer agents. The limitations in their rational design can be traced to the complexity of the mechanism of their operations, lack of proper knowledge of their targets and lack of force fields in docking packages to appropriately define the metal centre of the organometallic complexes. In this paper, some of the promising anticancer complexes of Ru(II such as the rapta-based complexes formulated as [Ru(η6-p-cymeneL2(pta] and those with unusual ligands are considered. CatB and kinases which have been experimentally confirmed as possible targets of the complexes are also predicted by the three methods as one of the most targeted receptors while TopII and HDAC7 are predicted by two and one of the methods as best targets. The interesting features of the binding of the complexes show that some of the complexes preferentially target specific macromolecules than the others, which is an indication of their specificity and possibility of their therapeutic combination without severe side effects that may come from competition for the same target. Also, introduction of unusual ligands is found to significantly improve the activities of most of the complexes studied. Strong correlations are observed for the predicted binding sites and the orientation of the complexes within the binding site by the three methods of docking. However there are disparities in the ranking of the complexes by the three method of docking, especially that of Glide.

  10. Describing the direct and indirect radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols over Europe by using coupled meteorology-chemistry simulations: a contribution from the AQMEII-Phase II exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Langer, Matthias; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Zabkar, Rahela

    2014-05-01

    The study of the response of the aerosol levels in the atmosphere to a changing climate and how this affects the radiative budget of the Earth (direct, semi-direct and indirect effects) is an essential topic to build confidence on climate science, since these feedbacks involve the largest uncertainties nowadays. Air quality-climate interactions (AQCI) are, therefore, a key, but uncertain contributor to the anthropogenic forcing that remains poorly understood. To build confidence in the AQCI studies, regional-scale integrated meteorology-atmospheric chemistry models (i.e., models with on-line chemistry) that include detailed treatment of aerosol life cycle and aerosol impacts on radiation (direct effects) and clouds (indirect effects) are in demand. In this context, the main objective of this contribution is the study and definition of the uncertainties in the climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation system associated to the direct radiative forcing and the indirect effect caused by aerosols over Europe, using an ensemble of fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry model simulations with the WRF-Chem model run under the umbrella of AQMEII-Phase 2 international initiative. Simulations were performed for Europe for the entire year 2010. According to the common simulation strategy, the year was simulated as a sequence of 2-day time slices. For better comparability, the seven groups applied the same grid spacing of 23 km and shared common processing of initial and boundary conditions as well as anthropogenic and fire emissions. With exception of a simulation with different cloud microphysics, identical physics options were chosen while the chemistry options were varied. Two model set-ups will be considered here: one sub-ensemble of simulations not taking into account any aerosol feedbacks (the baseline case) and another sub-ensemble of simulations which differs from the former by the inclusion of aerosol-radiation feedback. The existing differences for meteorological

  11. Confocal arthroscopy-based patient-specific constitutive models of cartilaginous tissues - II: prediction of reaction force history of meniscal cartilage specimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Zeike A; Kirk, Thomas B; Miller, Karol

    2007-10-01

    The theoretical framework developed in a companion paper (Part I) is used to derive estimates of mechanical response of two meniscal cartilage specimens. The previously developed framework consisted of a constitutive model capable of incorporating confocal image-derived tissue microstructural data. In the present paper (Part II) fibre and matrix constitutive parameters are first estimated from mechanical testing of a batch of specimens similar to, but independent from those under consideration. Image analysis techniques which allow estimation of tissue microstructural parameters form confocal images are presented. The constitutive model and image-derived structural parameters are then used to predict the reaction force history of the two meniscal specimens subjected to partially confined compression. The predictions are made on the basis of the specimens' individual structural condition as assessed by confocal microscopy and involve no tuning of material parameters. Although the model does not reproduce all features of the experimental curves, as an unfitted estimate of mechanical response the prediction is quite accurate. In light of the obtained results it is judged that more general non-invasive estimation of tissue mechanical properties is possible using the developed framework.

  12. Predictable effects of intensified production and harvesting on the fertility of forest soils. II- the effects of silviculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranger, J.; Bonneau, M.

    1986-01-01

    We defined the functioning of the ecosystem in our first article, devoted to the biological cycle (Ranger et Bonneau, 1984) and we now give an application of it to the management of mineral nutrient fertility in forest soils. Stress is laid on the relation between forest management and the export of nutrient elements out of the ecosystem, whether it relates to the choice of species, the length of the rotation, or the amount of the biomass produced that is harvested. By taking account of the average values of the inputs (atmospheric and weathering of reserves) it is possible to establish for each of the cases in question a balance sheet of inputs and outputs to describe the mineral nutrient balance of the rotation. Even if we overlook the qualitative changes which generally increase the 'output' term (changes in the organic matter, in the analytical properties of the minerals, etc...), it seems to be clear that a change-over to short rotations leads to a deficit budget (for all the major elements) in the great majority of forest soils. (authors)

  13. RETADD-II: a long-range atmospheric trajectory model with consistent treatment of deposition loss and species growth and decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, B.D.; Ohr, S.Y.; Begovich, C.L.

    1984-08-01

    A versatile model is described which estimates long-range atmospheric dispersion based on plume trajectories. This model allows the treatment of the dispersal from a source at an arbitrary height while taking account of plume depletion by dry and wet deposition together with the decay of material to successor species. The plume depletion, decay and growth equations are solved in an efficient manner which can accommodate up to eight pollutants (i.e., a parent and seven serial decay products). The code is particularly suitable for applications involving radioactive chain decay or for cases involving chemical species with successor decay products. Arbitrary emission rates can be specified for the members of the chain or, as is commonly the case, a sole emission rate can be specified for the first member. The code uses readily available upper-air wind data for the North American continent and it is therefore intended for the estimation of regional or continental scale dispersion patterns. This code is one of a group of codes, the Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System (Baes and Miller, 1981), designed to simulate the transport of radionuclides through environmental pathways. 24 references, 5 figures

  14. Atmospheric mercury in Changbai Mountain area, northeastern China II. The distribution of reactive gaseous mercury and particulate mercury and mercury deposition fluxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Qi; Feng, Xinbin; Lu, Julia; Zheng, Wei; Song, Xinjie; Li, Ping; Han, Shijie; Xu, Hao

    2009-08-01

    Reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) and particulate mercury (Hgp) concentrations in ambient air from a remote site at Changbai Mountain area in northeastern China were intermittently monitored from August 2005 to July 2006 totaling 93 days representing fall, winter-spring and summer season, respectively. Rainwater and snow samples were collected during a whole year, and total mercury (THg) in rain samples were used to calculate wet depositional flux. A throughfall method and a model method were used to estimate dry depositional flux. Results showed mean concentrations of RGM and Hgp are 65 and 77 pg m(-3). Compared to background concentrations of atmospheric mercury species in Northern Hemisphere, RGM and Hgp are significantly elevated in Changbai area. Large values for standard deviation indicated fast reactivity and a low residence time for these mercury species. Seasonal variability is also important, with lower mercury levels in summer compared to other seasons, which is attributed to scavenging by rainfall and low local mercury emissions in summer. THg concentrations ranged from 11.5 to 15.9 ng L(-1) in rainwater samples and 14.9-18.6 ng L(-1) in throughfall samples. Wet depositional flux in Changbai area is calculated to be 8.4 microg m(-2) a(-1), and dry deposition flux is estimated to be 16.5 microg m(-2) a(-1) according to a throughfall method and 20.2 microg m(-2) a(-1) using a model method.

  15. The earth's radiation budget and its relation to atmospheric hydrology. I - Observations of the clear sky greenhouse effect. II - Observations of cloud effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Graeme L.; Greenwald, Thomas J.

    1991-01-01

    The clear-sky components of the earth's radiation budget (ERB), the relationship of these components to the sea surface temperature (SST), and microwave-derived water-vapor amount are analyzed in an observational study along with the relationship between the cloudy-sky components of ERB and space/time coincident observations of SST, microwave-derived cloud liquid water, and cloud cover. The purpose of the study is to use these observations for establishing an understanding of the couplings between radiation and the atmosphere that are important to understanding climate feedback. A strategy for studying the greenhouse effect of earth by analyzing the emitted clear-sky longwave flux over the ocean is proposed. It is concluded that the largest observed influence of clouds on ERB is more consistent with macrophysical properties of clouds as opposed to microphysical properties. The analysis for clouds and the greenhouse effect of clouds is compared quantitatively with the clear sky results. Land-ocean differences and tropical-midlatitude differences are shown and explained in terms of the cloud macrostructure.

  16. Local scale atmospheric diffusion at a coastal site in the presence of breeze effect (Phase I and II: data collection at a coastal site and off shore)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Pellegrini, A.

    1985-01-01

    The aim of this contract is the characterization, from the thermal and anemological point of view of the lower layers of the atmosphere at a coastal site, affected by breeze circulation. Data are utilized to set up diffusion models for accidental releases of airborne materials, both of short and prolonged duration. Five inland meteorological campaigns, starting from Jan. 82 (Jan., Apr., Jul., Oct. 1982, Jan. 1983), have been carried out; an appropriate extension of the contract allowed the execution of two more campaigns in the open sea (Apr., Jul. 1983), utilizing the oceanographic ship ''Bannock'' kindly supplied by CNR. The analysis of the data showed the development of a well defined IBL during on-shore flow only in Spring and Summer, while an inversion layer was detectable aloft independently of the season (provided that an anticyclonic situation was present). According to those relevant features a simple diffusion model has been developed for short duration releases at local scale. Finally, the analysis and elaboration of the data, collected on site by a meteorological automatic station, allowed the extension of the model to prolonged releases

  17. Atmospheres of central stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hummer, D.G.

    1978-01-01

    The author presents a brief summary of atmospheric models that are of possible relevance to the central stars of planetary nebulae, and then discusses the extent to which these models accord with the observations of both nebulae and central stars. Particular attention is given to the significance of the very high Zanstra temperature implied by the nebulae He II lambda 4686 A line, and to the discrepancy between the Zanstra He II temperature and the considerably lower temperatures suggested by the appearance of the visual spectrum for some of these objects. (Auth.)

  18. Pluto's atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliot, J.L.; Dunham, E.W.; Bosh, A.S.; Slivan, S.M.; Young, L.A.

    1989-01-01

    Airborne CCD photometer observations of Pluto's June 9, 1988 stellar occultation have yielded an occultation lightcurve, probing two regions on the sunrise limb 2000 km apart, which reveals an upper atmosphere overlying an extinction layer with an abrupt upper boundary. The extinction layer may surround the entire planet. Attention is given to a model atmosphere whose occultation lightcurve closely duplicates observations; fits of the model to the immersion and emersion lightcurves exhibit no significant derived atmosphere-structure differences. Assuming a pure methane atmosphere, surface pressures of the order of 3 microbars are consistent with the occultation data. 43 references

  19. Atmospheric electricity

    CERN Document Server

    Chalmers, J Alan

    1957-01-01

    Atmospheric Electricity brings together numerous studies on various aspects of atmospheric electricity. This book is composed of 13 chapters that cover the main problems in the field, including the maintenance of the negative charge on the earth and the origin of the charges in thunderstorms. After a brief overview of the historical developments of atmospheric electricity, this book goes on dealing with the general principles, results, methods, and the MKS system of the field. The succeeding chapters are devoted to some aspects of electricity in the atmosphere, such as the occurrence and d

  20. An Assessment of CFD/CSD Prediction State-of-the-Art by Using the HART II International Workshop Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Marilyn J.; Lim, Joon W.; vanderWall, Berend G.; Baeder, James D.; Biedron, Robert T.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.; Jayaraman, Buvana; Jung, Sung N.; Min, Byung-Young

    2012-01-01

    Over the past decade, there have been significant advancements in the accuracy of rotor aeroelastic simulations with the application of computational fluid dynamics methods coupled with computational structural dynamics codes (CFD/CSD). The HART II International Workshop database, which includes descent operating conditions with strong blade-vortex interactions (BVI), provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of CFD/CSD to capture these physics. In addition to a baseline case with BVI, two additional cases with 3/rev higher harmonic blade root pitch control (HHC) are available for comparison. The collaboration during the workshop permits assessment of structured, unstructured, and hybrid overset CFD/CSD methods from across the globe on the dynamics, aerodynamics, and wake structure. Evaluation of the plethora of CFD/CSD methods indicate that the most important numerical variables associated with most accurately capturing BVI are a two-equation or detached eddy simulation (DES)-based turbulence model and a sufficiently small time step. An appropriate trade-off between grid fidelity and spatial accuracy schemes also appears to be pertinent for capturing BVI on the advancing rotor disk. Overall, the CFD/CSD methods generally fall within the same accuracy; cost-effective hybrid Navier-Stokes/Lagrangian wake methods provide accuracies within 50% the full CFD/CSD methods for most parameters of interest, except for those highly influenced by torsion. The importance of modeling the fuselage is observed, and other computational requirements are discussed.

  1. Thermal infrared properties of the Martian atmosphere 4. Predictions of the presence of dust and ice clouds from Viking IRTM spectral measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, G.E.

    1979-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the response of the Martian atmosphere at the wavelengths measured by the Viking infrared thermal mapper instrument (IRTM) to the presence of varying amounts of dust and water ice clouds. A detailed radiative transfer study is represented to show that these IRTM measurements at channels centered at 7, 9, 11, and 20 μm may be used to differentiate between the presence of dust and water ice clouds in the Martian atmosphere. They show further that these measurements may also be used to provide some information on the structure of the lower atmosphere. The use of the IRTM measurements in the manner we describe can provide information associated with the thermal characteristics of Martian dust storms

  2. An effective chaos-geometric computational approach to analysis and prediction of evolutionary dynamics of the environmental systems: Atmospheric pollution dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buyadzhi, V. V.; Glushkov, A. V.; Khetselius, O. Yu; Bunyakova, Yu Ya; Florko, T. A.; Agayar, E. V.; Solyanikova, E. P.

    2017-10-01

    The present paper concerns the results of computational studying dynamics of the atmospheric pollutants (dioxide of nitrogen, sulphur etc) concentrations in an atmosphere of the industrial cities (Odessa) by using the dynamical systems and chaos theory methods. A chaotic behaviour in the nitrogen dioxide and sulphurous anhydride concentration time series at several sites of the Odessa city is numerically investigated. As usually, to reconstruct the corresponding attractor, the time delay and embedding dimension are needed. The former is determined by the methods of autocorrelation function and average mutual information, and the latter is calculated by means of a correlation dimension method and algorithm of false nearest neighbours. Further, the Lyapunov’s exponents spectrum, Kaplan-Yorke dimension and Kolmogorov entropy are computed. It has been found an existence of a low-D chaos in the time series of the atmospheric pollutants concentrations.

  3. Comparative ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of energy and mass in a European Russian and a central Siberian bog II. Interseasonal and interannual variability of CO2 fluxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arneth, A.; Kolle, O.; Lloyd, J.; Schulze, E.D.; Kurbatova, J.; Vygodskaya, N.N.

    2002-01-01

    Net ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of CO 2 (NEE) was measured in two boreal bogs during the snow-free periods of 1998, 1999 and 2000. The two sites were located in European Russia (Fyodorovskoye), and in central Siberia (Zotino). Climate at both sites was generally continental but with more extreme summer-winter gradients in temperature at the more eastern site Zotino. The snow-free period in Fyodorovskoye exceeded the snow-free period at Zotino by several weeks. Marked seasonal and interannual differences in NEE were observed at both locations, with contrasting rates and patterns. Amongst the most important contrasts were: (1) Ecosystem respiration at a reference soil temperature was higher at Fyodorovskoye than at Zotino. (2) The diurnal amplitude of summer NEE was larger at Fyodorovskoye than at Zotino. (3) There was a modest tendency for maximum 24 h NEE during average rainfall years to be more negative at Zotino (-0.17 versus -0.15 mol/m 2 /d), suggesting a higher productivity during the summer months. (4) Cumulative net uptake of CO 2 during the snow-free period was strongly related to climatic differences between years. In Zotino the interannual variability in climate, and also in the CO 2 balance during the snow-free period, was small. However, at Fyodorovskoye the bog was a significant carbon sink in one season and a substantial source for CO 2 -C in the next, which was below-average dry. Total snow-free uptake and annual estimates of net CO 2 -C uptake are discussed, including associated uncertainties

  4. The Liquid Metallic Hydrogen Model of the Sun and the Solar Atmosphere II. Continuous Emission and Condensed Matter Within the Corona

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The K-corona, a significant portion of the solar atmosphere, displays a continuous spectrum which closely parallels photospheric emission, though without the presence of overlying Fraunhofer lines. The E-corona exists in the same region and is characterized by weak emission lines from highly ionized atoms. For instance, the famous green emission line from coronium (FeXIV is part of the E-corona. The F-corona exists beyond the K/E-corona and, like the photospheric spectrum, is characterized by Fraunhofer lines. The F-corona represents photospheric light scattered by dust particles in the interplanetary medium. Within the gaseous models of the Sun, the K-corona is viewed as photospheric radiation which has been scattered by relativistic electrons. This scattering is thought to broaden the Fraunhofer lines of the solar spectrum such that they can no longer be detected in the K-corona. Thus, the gaseous models of the Sun account for the appearance of the K-corona by distorting photospheric light, since they are unable to have recourse to condensed matter to directly produce such radiation. Conversely, it is now advanced that the continuous emission of the K-corona and associated emission lines from the E-corona must be interpreted as manifestations of the same phenomenon: condensed matter exists in the corona. It is well-known that the Sun expels large amounts of material from its surface in the form of flares and coronal mass ejections. Given a liquid metallic hydrogen model of the Sun, it is logical to assume that such matter, which exists in the condensed state on the solar surface, continues to manifest its nature once expelled into the corona. Therefore, the continuous spectrum of the K-corona provides the twenty-seventh line of evidence that the Sun is composed of condensed matter.

  5. A Comparison between Predicted and Observed Atmospheric States and their Effects on Infrasonic Source Time Function Inversion at Source Physics Experiment 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aur, K. A.; Poppeliers, C.; Preston, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) consists of a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) designed to gain an improved understanding of the generation and propagation of physical signals in the near and far field. Characterizing the acoustic and infrasound source mechanism from underground explosions is of great importance to underground explosion monitoring. To this end we perform full waveform source inversion of infrasound data collected from the SPE-6 experiment at distances from 300 m to 6 km and frequencies up to 20 Hz. Our method requires estimating the state of the atmosphere at the time of each experiment, computing Green's functions through these atmospheric models, and subsequently inverting the observed data in the frequency domain to obtain a source time function. To estimate the state of the atmosphere at the time of the experiment, we utilize the Weather Research and Forecasting - Data Assimilation (WRF-DA) modeling system to derive a unified atmospheric state model by combining Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) data and locally obtained sonde and surface weather observations collected at the time of the experiment. We synthesize Green's functions through these atmospheric models using Sandia's moving media acoustic propagation simulation suite (TDAAPS). These models include 3-D variations in topography, temperature, pressure, and wind. We compare inversion results using the atmospheric models derived from the unified weather models versus previous modeling results and discuss how these differences affect computed source waveforms with respect to observed waveforms at various distances. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear

  6. ColoLipidGene: signature of lipid metabolism-related genes to predict prognosis in stage-II colon cancer patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Teodoro; Moreno-Rubio, Juan; Herranz, Jesús; Cejas, Paloma; Molina, Susana; González-Vallinas, Margarita; Mendiola, Marta; Burgos, Emilio; Aguayo, Cristina; Custodio, Ana B.; Machado, Isidro; Ramos, David; Gironella, Meritxell; Espinosa-Salinas, Isabel; Ramos, Ricardo; Martín-Hernández, Roberto; Risueño, Alberto; De Las Rivas, Javier; Reglero, Guillermo; Yaya, Ricardo; Fernández-Martos, Carlos; Aparicio, Jorge; Maurel, Joan; Feliu, Jaime; de Molina, Ana Ramírez

    2015-01-01

    Lipid metabolism plays an essential role in carcinogenesis due to the requirements of tumoral cells to sustain increased structural, energetic and biosynthetic precursor demands for cell proliferation. We investigated the association between expression of lipid metabolism-related genes and clinical outcome in intermediate-stage colon cancer patients with the aim of identifying a metabolic profile associated with greater malignancy and increased risk of relapse. Expression profile of 70 lipid metabolism-related genes was determined in 77 patients with stage II colon cancer. Cox regression analyses using c-index methodology was applied to identify a metabolic-related signature associated to prognosis. The metabolic signature was further confirmed in two independent validation sets of 120 patients and additionally, in a group of 264 patients from a public database. The combined analysis of these 4 genes, ABCA1, ACSL1, AGPAT1 and SCD, constitutes a metabolic-signature (ColoLipidGene) able to accurately stratify stage II colon cancer patients with 5-fold higher risk of relapse with strong statistical power in the four independent groups of patients. The identification of a group of 4 genes that predict survival in intermediate-stage colon cancer patients allows delineation of a high-risk group that may benefit from adjuvant therapy, and avoids the toxic and unnecessary chemotherapy in patients classified as low-risk group. PMID:25749516

  7. TBscore II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudolf, Frauke; Lemvik, Grethe; Abate, Ebba

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Background: The TBscore, based on simple signs and symptoms, was introduced to predict unsuccessful outcome in tuberculosis patients on treatment. A recent inter-observer variation study showed profound variation in some variables. Further, some variables depend on a physician assessing...... them, making the score less applicable. The aim of the present study was to simplify the TBscore. Methods: Inter-observer variation assessment and exploratory factor analysis were combined to develop a simplified score, the TBscore II. To validate TBscore II we assessed the association between start...

  8. Identification of PPARgamma partial agonists of natural origin (II: in silico prediction in natural extracts with known antidiabetic activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Guasch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Natural extracts have played an important role in the prevention and treatment of diseases and are important sources for drug discovery. However, to be effectively used in these processes, natural extracts must be characterized through the identification of their active compounds and their modes of action. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From an initial set of 29,779 natural products that are annotated with their natural source and using a previously developed virtual screening procedure (carefully validated experimentally, we have predicted as potential peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ partial agonists 12 molecules from 11 extracts known to have antidiabetic activity. Six of these molecules are similar to molecules with described antidiabetic activity but whose mechanism of action is unknown. Therefore, it is plausible that these 12 molecules could be the bioactive molecules responsible, at least in part, for the antidiabetic activity of the extracts containing them. In addition, we have also identified as potential PPARγ partial agonists 10 molecules from 16 plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity but that are related (i.e., they are from the same genus to plants with known antidiabetic properties. None of the 22 molecules that we predict as PPARγ partial agonists show chemical similarity with a group of 211 known PPARγ partial agonists obtained from the literature. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide a new hypothesis about the active molecules of natural extracts with antidiabetic properties and their mode of action. We also suggest plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity that may contain PPARγ partial agonists. These plants represent a new source of potential antidiabetic extracts. Consequently, our work opens the door to the discovery of new antidiabetic extracts and molecules that can be of use, for instance, in the design of new antidiabetic drugs or functional foods focused

  9. Identification of novel human dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors of natural origin (Part II: in silico prediction in antidiabetic extracts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Guasch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Natural extracts play an important role in traditional medicines for the treatment of diabetes mellitus and are also an essential resource for new drug discovery. Dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV inhibitors are potential candidates for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and the effectiveness of certain antidiabetic extracts of natural origin could be, at least partially, explained by the inhibition of DPP-IV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using an initial set of 29,779 natural products that are annotated with their natural source and an experimentally validated virtual screening procedure previously developed in our lab (Guasch et al.; 2012 [1], we have predicted 12 potential DPP-IV inhibitors from 12 different plant extracts that are known to have antidiabetic activity. Seven of these molecules are identical or similar to molecules with described antidiabetic activity (although their role as DPP-IV inhibitors has not been suggested as an explanation for their bioactivity. Therefore, it is plausible that these 12 molecules could be responsible, at least in part, for the antidiabetic activity of these extracts through their inhibitory effect on DPP-IV. In addition, we also identified as potential DPP-IV inhibitors 6 molecules from 6 different plants with no described antidiabetic activity but that share the same genus as plants with known antidiabetic properties. Moreover, none of the 18 molecules that we predicted as DPP-IV inhibitors exhibits chemical similarity with a group of 2,342 known DPP-IV inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study identified 18 potential DPP-IV inhibitors in 18 different plant extracts (12 of these plants have known antidiabetic properties, whereas, for the remaining 6, antidiabetic activity has been reported for other plant species from the same genus. Moreover, none of the 18 molecules exhibits chemical similarity with a large group of known DPP-IV inhibitors.

  10. Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauritzen, Bent

    The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioac-tive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposi-tion scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather pre......-diction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years span-ning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range disper......-sion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple...

  11. Immunogenicity and prediction of epitopic region of antigen Ag I/II and glucosyltransferase from Streptococcus mutans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xi-Xi; Fan, Jian; Chen, Jiang; Li, Yu-Hong; Fan, Ming-Wen

    2016-06-01

    The levels of Streptococcus (S.) mutans infections in saliva were evaluated and a comparison for specific antibody levels among children with different levels of S. mutans infection was made. The promising epitopic regions of antigen AgI/II (PAc) and glucosyltransferase (GTF) for potential vaccine targets related to S. mutans adherence were screened. A total of 94 children aged 3-4 years were randomly selected, including 53 caries-negative and 41 caries-positive children. The values of S. mutans and those of salivary total secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA), anti-PAc and anti-Glucan binding domain (anti-GLU) were compared to determine the correlation among them. It was found the level of s-IgA against specific antigens did not increase with increasing severity of S. mutans infection, and the complete amino acid sequence of PAc and GTFB was analyzed using the DNAStar Protean system for developing specific anti-caries vaccines related to S. mutans adherence. A significantly positive correlation between the amount of S. mutans and children decayed, missing, and filled teeth index was observed. No significant difference was detected in specific sIgA against PAc or GLU between any two groups. No significant correlation was found between such specific sIgA and caries index. A total of 16 peptides from PAc as well as 13 peptides from GTFB were chosen for further investigation. S. mutans colonization contributed to early children caries as an important etiological factor. The level of sIgA against specific antigens did not increase with increasing severity of S. mutans infection in children. The epitopes of PAc and GTF have been screened to develop the peptide-based or protein-based anti-caries vaccines.

  12. UV spectroscopy of Titan's atmosphere, planetary organic chemistry and prebiological synthesis. II - Interpretation of new IUE observations in the 220-335 nm range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtin, Regis; Wagener, Richard; Mckay, Christopher P.; Caldwell, John; Fricke, Karl-Heinrich

    1991-01-01

    The theoretical model developed by McKay et al. (1989) to characterize the size distribution, thermal structure, and chemical composition of the stratospheric haze of Titan is applied to new 220-335-nm albedo measurements obtained with the long-wavelength prime camera of the IUE during August 1987. Data and model predictions are presented in extensive graphs and discussed in detail. It is shown that a simple model with particles of one size at a given altitude does not accurately reproduce the observed features in all spectral regions, but that good general agreement is obtained using a model with a uniformly mixed layer at 150-600 km and a bimodal distribution of small 'polymer' haze particles (radius less than 20 nm) and larger haze particles (radius 100-500 nm). The number densities implied by this model require, however, a mechanism such as electrostatic charging or reaction kinetics to inhibit coagulation of the smaller particles.

  13. Articulating Atmospheres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kinch, Sofie

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an architectural approach to designing computational interfaces by articulating the notion of atmosphere in the field of interaction design. It draws upon the concept of kinesthetic interaction and a philosophical notion on atmosphere emphasizing the importance of bodily...

  14. Atmospheric electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volland, H.

    1984-01-01

    The book Atmospheric Electrodynamics, by Hans Voland is reviewed. The book describes a wide variety of electrical phenomena occurring in the upper and lower atmosphere and develops the mathematical models which simulate these processes. The reviewer finds that the book is of interest to researchers with a background in electromagnetic theory but is of only limited use as a reference work

  15. Atmospheric muons in Hanoi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham Ngoc Diep; Pham thi Tuyet Nhung; Pierre Darriulat; Nguyen Thi Thao; Dang Quang Thieu; Vo Van Thuan

    2006-01-01

    Recent measurements of the atmospheric muon flux in Hanoi were reviewed. As the measurements were carried out in a region of maximal geomagnetic rigidity cutoff, they provided a sensitive test of air shower models used in the interpretation of neutrino oscillation experiments. The measured data were found to be in a very good agreement with the prediction from the model of M. Honda. (author)

  16. Urban atmospheres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandy, Matthew

    2017-07-01

    What is an urban atmosphere? How can we differentiate an 'atmosphere' from other facets of urban consciousness and experience? This essay explores some of the wider cultural, political, and philosophical connotations of atmospheres as a focal point for critical reflections on space and subjectivity. The idea of an 'affective atmosphere' as a distinctive kind of mood or shared corporeal phenomenon is considered in relation to recent developments in phenomenology, extended conceptions of agency, and new understandings of materialism. The essay draws in particular on the changing characteristics of air and light to reflect on different forms of sensory experience and their wider cultural and political connotations. The argument highlights some of the tensions and anomalies that permeate contemporary understandings of urban atmospheres.

  17. Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production of Iran: II. Predicting Productivity of Field Crops and Adaptation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Koocheki

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Recent evidences confirm that during the next few decades, many agroclimatic indices of Iran would be affected by global climate change. Koocheki et al. using two General Circulation Models showed that the mean annual temperature of the country will increase between 3.5-4.5°C while mean precipitation will reduce by 7-15% to 2050. It is well established that crop growth and development would drastically affect by the future global warming and its consequences because yield determining processes such as photosynthesis and crop phenology are directly related to temperature. On the other hands, the combined effects of CO2 enrichment and temperature rise on crop growth are complicated and should be studied using crop simulation models. Furthermore, adapting to climatic variability will have a substantially greater effect in reducing impacts than willing mitigation. However, such impacts on crop productivity at national scale and adaptive measures for future conditions are rarely studied in Iran. In this research crop development and yield of wheat, corn, chickpea and sugar beet were simulated for the target year of 2050 and the results are compared with the current yield as the baseline. Materials and Methods Future climatic variables were predicted using A1f (business as usual scenario by GFDL general circulation model and the results were used as weather inputs in the SUCROS model which was previously validated against measured data of the four crops. To account for the effect of CO2 enrichment on crop growth the photosynthesis routine of the model was adopted for increased CO2 concentration using a scaling factor. Changes in developmental stages of each crop were estimated for the future conditions and the relation between duration of these stages and yield was determined. Predicted crop yields for the year 2050 were compared with the current potential yields considering some adaptation strategies. Results and Discussion Results

  18. Soil carbon content and relative abundance of high affinity H2-oxidizing bacteria predict atmospheric H2 soil uptake activity better than soil microbial community composition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khdhiri, Mondher; Hesse, Laura; Popa, Maria Elena; Quiza, Liliana; Lalonde, Isabelle; Meredith, Laura K.; Röckmann, Thomas; Constant, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    Soil-atmosphere exchange of H2 is controlled by gas diffusion and the microbial production and oxidation activities in soil. Among these parameters, the H2 oxidation activity catalyzed by soil microorganisms harboring high affinity hydrogenase is the most difficult variable to parameterize because

  19. Development of a web-based liver cancer prediction model for type II diabetes patients by using an artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, Hsiao-Hsien; Hsu, Chien-Yeh; Lin, Yu-An; Atique, Suleman; Fuad, Anis; Wei, Li-Ming; Hsu, Ming-Huei

    2016-03-01

    Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of liver cancer, and these two diseases are among the most common and important causes of morbidity and mortality in Taiwan. To use data mining techniques to develop a model for predicting the development of liver cancer within 6 years of diagnosis with type II diabetes. Data were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan, which covers approximately 22 million people. In this study, we selected patients who were newly diagnosed with type II diabetes during the 2000-2003 periods, with no prior cancer diagnosis. We then used encrypted personal ID to perform data linkage with the cancer registry database to identify whether these patients were diagnosed with liver cancer. Finally, we identified 2060 cases and assigned them to a case group (patients diagnosed with liver cancer after diabetes) and a control group (patients with diabetes but no liver cancer). The risk factors were identified from the literature review and physicians' suggestion, then, chi-square test was conducted on each independent variable (or potential risk factor) for a comparison between patients with liver cancer and those without, those found to be significant were selected as the factors. We subsequently performed data training and testing to construct artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) prediction models. The dataset was randomly divided into 2 groups: a training group and a test group. The training group consisted of 1442 cases (70% of the entire dataset), and the prediction model was developed on the basis of the training group. The remaining 30% (618 cases) were assigned to the test group for model validation. The following 10 variables were used to develop the ANN and LR models: sex, age, alcoholic cirrhosis, nonalcoholic cirrhosis, alcoholic hepatitis, viral hepatitis, other types of chronic hepatitis, alcoholic fatty liver disease, other types of fatty liver disease, and

  20. Can Early Computed Tomography Angiography after Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair Predict the Need for Reintervention in Patients with Type II Endoleak?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudeck, O., E-mail: oliver.dudeck@med.ovgu.de [University of Magdeburg, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (Germany); Schnapauff, D. [Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Department of Radiology (Germany); Herzog, L.; Löwenthal, D.; Bulla, K.; Bulla, B. [University of Magdeburg, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (Germany); Halloul, Z.; Meyer, F. [University of Magdeburg, Department of General, Visceral and Vascular Surgery (Germany); Pech, M. [University of Magdeburg, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (Germany); Gebauer, B. [Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Department of Radiology (Germany); Ricke, J. [University of Magdeburg, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine (Germany)

    2015-02-15

    PurposeThis study was designed to identify parameters on CT angiography (CTA) of type II endoleaks following endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), which can be used to predict the subsequent need for reinterventions.MethodsWe retrospectively identified 62 patients with type II endoleak who underwent early CTA in mean 3.7 ± 1.9 days after EVAR. On the basis of follow-up examinations (mean follow-up period 911 days; range, 373–1,987 days), patients were stratified into two groups: those who did (n = 18) and those who did not (n = 44) require reintervention. CTA characteristics, such as AAA, endoleak, as well as nidus dimensions, patency of the inferior mesenteric artery, number of aortic branch vessels, and the pattern of endoleak appearance, were recorded and correlated with the clinical outcome.ResultsUnivariate and receiver operating characteristic curve regression analyses revealed significant differences between the two groups for the endoleak volume (surveillance group: 1391.6 ± 1427.9 mm{sup 3}; reintervention group: 3227.7 ± 2693.8 mm{sup 3}; cutoff value of 2,386 mm{sup 3}; p = 0.002), the endoleak diameter (13.6 ± 4.3 mm compared with 25.9 ± 9.6 mm; cutoff value of 19 mm; p < 0.0001), the number of aortic branch vessels (2.9 ± 1.2 compared with 4.2 ± 1.4 vessels; p = 0.001), as well as a “complex type” endoleak pattern (13.6 %, n = 6 compared with 44.4 %, n = 8; p = 0.02).ConclusionsEarly CTA can predict the future need for reintervention in patients with type II endoleak. Therefore, treatment decision should be based not only on aneurysm enlargement alone but also on other imaging characteristics.

  1. Arginase II expressed in cancer-associated fibroblasts indicates tissue hypoxia and predicts poor outcome in patients with pancreatic cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshinori Ino

    Full Text Available An adequate level of arginine in the tissue microenvironment is essential for T cell activity and survival. Arginine levels are regulated by the arginine-catabolizing enzyme, arginase (ARG. It has been reported that arginase II (ARG2, one of two ARGs, is aberrantly expressed in prostate cancer cells, which convert arginine into ornithine, resulting in a lack of arginine that weakens tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and renders them dysfunctional. However, immune suppression mediated by ARG2-expressing cancer cells in lung cancer has not been observed. Here we studied the expression of ARG2 in pancreatic ductal carcinoma (PDC tissue clinicopathologically by examining over 200 cases of PDC. In contrast to prostate cancer, ARG2 expression was rarely demonstrated in PDC cells by immunohistochemistry, and instead ARG2 was characteristically expressed in α-smooth muscle actin-positive cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs, especially those located within and around necrotic areas in PDC. The presence of ARG2-expressing CAFs was closely correlated with shorter overall survival (OS; P  = 0.003 and disease-free survival (DFS; P  = 0.0006. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the presence of ARG2-expressing CAFs in PDC tissue was an independent predictor of poorer OS (hazard ratio [HR]  = 1.582, P  = 0.007 and DFS (HR  = 1.715, P  = 0.001 in PDC patients. In addition to the characteristic distribution of ARG2-expressing CAFs, such CAFs co-expressed carbonic anhydrase IX, SLC2A1, or HIF-1α, markers of hypoxia, in PDC tissue. Furthermore, in vitro experiments revealed that cultured fibroblasts extracted from PDC tissue expressed the ARG2 transcript after exposure to hypoxia, which had arginase activity. These results indicate that cancer cell-mediated immune suppression through ARG2 expression is not a general event and that the presence of ARG2-expressing CAFs is an indicator of poor prognosis, as well as hypoxia, in PDC

  2. Mathematical formulation to predict the harmonics of the superconducting Large Hadron Collider magnets. II. Dynamic field changes and scaling laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas J. Sammut

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available A superconducting particle accelerator like the LHC (Large Hadron Collider at CERN, can only be controlled well if the effects of the magnetic field multipoles on the beam are compensated. The demands on a control system solely based on beam feedback may be too high for the requirements to be reached at the specified bandwidth and accuracy. Therefore, we designed a suitable field description for the LHC (FIDEL as part of the machine control baseline to act as a feed-forward magnetic field prediction system. FIDEL consists of a physical and empirical parametric field model based on magnetic measurements at warm and in cryogenic conditions. The performance of FIDEL is particularly critical at injection when the field decays, and in the initial part of the acceleration when the field snaps back. These dynamic components are both current and time dependent and are not reproducible from cycle to cycle since they also depend on the magnet powering history. In this paper a qualitative and quantitative description of the dynamic field behavior substantiated by a set of scaling laws is presented.

  3. MHC class II DRB diversity predicts antigen recognition and is associated with disease severity in California sea lions naturally infected with Leptospira interrogans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo-Whitehouse, Karina; Gulland, Frances; Bowen, Lizabeth

    2018-01-01

    We examined the associations between California sea lion MHC class II DRB (Zaca-DRB) configuration and diversity, and leptospirosis. As Zaca-DRB gene sequences are involved with antigen presentation of bacteria and other extracellular pathogens, we predicted that they would play a role in determining responses to these pathogenic spirochaetes. Specifically, we investigated whether Zaca-DRB diversity (number of genes) and configuration (presence of specific genes) explained differences in disease severity, and whether higher levels of Zaca-DRB diversity predicted the number of specific Leptospira interrogans serovars that a sea lion's serum would react against. We found that serum from diseased sea lions with more Zaca-DRB loci reacted against a wider array of serovars. Specific Zaca-DRB loci were linked to reactions with particular serovars. Interestingly, sea lions with clinical manifestation of leptospirosis that had higher numbers of Zaca-DRB loci were less likely to recover from disease than those with lower diversity, and those that harboured Zaca-DRB.C or –G were 4.5 to 5.3 times more likely to die from leptospirosis, regardless of the infective serovars. We propose that for leptospirosis, a disadvantage of having a wider range of antigen presentation might be increased disease severity due to immunopathology. Ours is the first study to examine the importance of Zaca-DRB diversity for antigen detection and disease severity following natural exposure to infective leptospires.

  4. Oceanographic Station, temperature profiles, and other data from CTD, XBT, and bottle casts from NOAA Ship DELAWARE II as part of the Marine Resources Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction (MARMAP) from 1972-07-01 to 1972-08-13 (NODC Accession 7201299)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic Station,temperature profiles, and other data were collected from CTD, XBT, and bottle casts from NOAA Ship DELAWARE II from 01 July 1972 to 13 August...

  5. Oceanographic station, temperature profile, meteorological, and other data from CTD and XBT casts from NOAA Ship DELAWARE II and other platforms as part of the Marine Resources Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction (MARMAP) project from 1980-06-25 to 1983-08-04 (NODC Accession 8300119)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic station, temperature profile, meteorological, and other data were collected from CTD and XBT casts from NOAA Ship DELAWARE II and other platforms from...

  6. Oceanographic station, temperature profiles, meteorological, and other data from XBT and bottle casts from NOAA Ship OREGON II as part of the Marine Resources Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction (MARMAP) project from 1972-07-13 to 1972-08-08 (NODC Accession 7300271)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Oceanographic station, temperature profiles, meteorological, and other data were collected from bottle and XBT casts from NOAA Ship OREGON II from 13 July 1972 to 08...

  7. Atmospheric Electricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aplin, Karen; Fischer, Georg

    2018-02-01

    Electricity occurs in atmospheres across the Solar System planets and beyond, spanning spectacular lightning displays in clouds of water or dust, to more subtle effects of charge and electric fields. On Earth, lightning is likely to have existed for a long time, based on evidence from fossilized lightning strikes in ancient rocks, but observations of planetary lightning are necessarily much more recent. The generation and observations of lightning and other atmospheric electrical processes, both from within-atmosphere measurements, and spacecraft remote sensing, can be readily studied using a comparative planetology approach, with Earth as a model. All atmospheres contain charged molecules, electrons, and/or molecular clusters created by ionization from cosmic rays and other processes, which may affect an atmosphere's energy balance both through aerosol and cloud formation, and direct absorption of radiation. Several planets are anticipated to host a "global electric circuit" by analogy with the circuit occurring on Earth, where thunderstorms drive current of ions or electrons through weakly conductive parts of the atmosphere. This current flow may further modulate an atmosphere's radiative properties through cloud and aerosol effects. Lightning could potentially have implications for life through its effects on atmospheric chemistry and particle transport. It has been observed on many of the Solar System planets (Earth, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) and it may also be present on Venus and Mars. On Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn, lightning is thought to be generated in deep water and ice clouds, but discharges can be generated in dust, as for terrestrial volcanic lightning, and on Mars. Other, less well-understood mechanisms causing discharges in non-water clouds also seem likely. The discovery of thousands of exoplanets has recently led to a range of further exotic possibilities for atmospheric electricity, though lightning detection beyond our Solar System

  8. Bringing colour back after 70 years: Predicting eye and hair colour from skeletal remains of World War II victims using the HIrisPlex system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaitanya, Lakshmi; Pajnič, Irena Zupanič; Walsh, Susan; Balažic, Jože; Zupanc, Tomaž; Kayser, Manfred

    2017-01-01

    Retrieving information about externally visible characteristics from DNA can provide investigative leads to find unknown perpetrators, and can also help in disaster victim and other missing person identification cases. Aiming for the application to both types of forensic casework, we previously developed and forensically validated the HIrisPlex test system enabling parallel DNA prediction of eye and hair colour. Although a recent proof-of-principle study demonstrated the general suitability of the HIrisPlex system for successfully analysing DNA from bones and teeth of various storage times and conditions, practical case applications to human remains are scarce. In this study, we applied the HIrisPlex system to 49 DNA samples obtained from bones or teeth of World War II victims excavated at six sites, mostly mass graves, in Slovenia. PCR-based DNA quantification ranged from 4pg/μl to 313pg/μl and on an average was 41pg/μl across all samples. All 49 samples generated complete HIrisPlex profiles with the exception of one MC1R DNA marker (N29insA) missing in 83.7% of the samples. In 44 of the 49 samples (89.8%) complete 15-loci autosomal STR (plus amelogenin) profiles were obtained. Of 5 pairs of skeletal remains for which STR profiling suggested an origin in the same individuals, respectively, 4 showed the same HIrisPlex profiles and predicted eye and hair colours, respectively, while discrepancies in one pair (sample 26 and 43) are likely to be explained by DNA quantity and quality issues observed in sample 43. Sample 43 had the lowest DNA concentration of only 4pg/μl, producing least reliable STR results and could be misleading in concluding that samples 43 and 26 originate from the same individual. The HIrisPlex-predicted eye and hair colours from two skeletal samples, suggested to derive from two brothers via STR profiling together with a living sister, were confirmed by the living sister's report. Overall, we demonstrate that after more than 70 years, HIris

  9. Statistical analysis of accurate prediction of local atmospheric optical attenuation with a new model according to weather together with beam wandering compensation system: a season-wise experimental investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arockia Bazil Raj, A.; Padmavathi, S.

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of Free Space Optical Communication (FSOC) system when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulent medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of optical attenuation according to meteorological parameters becomes significant to understand the behaviour of FSOC channel during different seasons. A dedicated free space optical link experimental set-up is developed for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m. The diurnal profile of received power and corresponding meteorological parameters are continuously measured using the developed optoelectronic assembly and weather station, respectively, and stored in a data logging computer. Measured meteorological parameters (as input factors) and optical attenuation (as response factor) of size [177147 × 4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design the mathematical model that is more suitable to predict the atmospheric optical attenuation at our test field. A model that exhibits the R2 value of 98.76% and average percentage deviation of 1.59% is considered for practical implementation. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is investigated along with the comparative results obtained from some of the existing models in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) during different local seasons in one-year period. The average RMSE value of 0.043-dB/km is obtained in the longer range dynamic of meteorological parameters variations.

  10. Hydrocarbon test in lower-layer atmosphere to predict deep-sea petroleum or hydrate in the Okinawa Trough: an example

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gong Jianming; Chen Jianwen; Li Gang; Zhang Xunhua; Li Jipeng; Huang Fulin

    2003-01-01

    Light hydrocarbon (methane, ethane, propane, butane and CO2) test and C isotopic analysis of CO2 are conducted for over 100 lower-layer atmospheric samples from the East China Sea slope and the Okinawa Trough. The results show that the lower-layer atmosphere mainly consists of CO2 and then of CH4, and the CO2 concentrations are calculated to have a high average value of 0.87 ω/10-2 ,about three times that of the regional background (0.3 ω/10-2). The result also shows that the average value of C isotope - 20.8 × 10 -3 is given to the CO2, inferring that it is inorganic gas.Thus, for the future ' s work in the Okinawa Trough, special attention should be paid to CO2 hydrate,which is very possibly an important hydrate type.

  11. He II lines in the spectrum of zeta Puppis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snijders, M.A.J.; Underhill, A.B.

    1975-01-01

    Equivalents widths of He II lines in the series n=2,3,4 and 5 are compiled and compared with predictions from plane-parallel, static model atmospheres using a non-LTE theory of line formation. The agreement between observation and prediction for a (50,000,4.0) model atmosphere is good for the upper members of the n=3 and the n=5 series, but the two lines of the n=2 series which are observed and the upper members of the n=4 series (4→15,4→17, etc.) are stronger than predicted. Well-determined profiles of lines from the n=3 series indicate v sin i=200 km s -1 . Profiles of the higher members of the n=4 series, however, do not match the predictions, the observed line cores being deeper than predicted. The n=4 level appears to be more overpopulated at moderate depths in the atmosphere than the non-LTE calculations with plane-parallel layers indicate. This may be due to an overlap of the H and He II lines in the even-even series caused by macroturbulent velocities of the hydrogen atoms and helium atoms

  12. Mars: Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, V.; Murdin, P.

    2001-07-01

    The atmosphere of MARS is much thinner than the terrestrial one. However, even the simplest visual telescopic observations show a set of atmospheric events such as seasonal exchange of material between polar caps, temporal appearance of clouds and changes of visibility of dark regions on the disk of the planet. In 1947 the prominent CO2 bands in the near-infrared part of the Martian spectrum were...

  13. Systolic Sac Pressure Index for the Prediction of Persistent Type II Endoleak for 12 Months After Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikoma, Akira, E-mail: yfb04322@nifty.com; Nakai, Motoki, E-mail: momonga@wakayama-med.ac.jp; Sato, Morio, E-mail: morisato@wakayama-med.ac.jp; Sato, Hirotatsu, E-mail: kuppa1220@yahoo.co.jp; Minamiguchi, Hiroki, E-mail: hiromina4@hotmail.com; Sonomura, Tetsuo, E-mail: sonomura@wakayama-med.ac.jp [Wakayama Medical University, Departments of Radiology (Japan); Nishimura, Yoshiharu, E-mail: nishim-y@wakayama-med.ac.jp; Okamura, Yoshitaka, E-mail: y-ok@wakayama-med.ac.jp [Wakayama Medical University, Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery (Japan)

    2016-04-15

    PurposeTo assess the relationship between the systolic sac pressure index (SPI) and the presence of endoleaks 12 months after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR).Materials and MethodsWe performed a single-center prospective trial of consecutively treated patients. SPI (calculated as systolic sac pressure/systolic aortic pressure) was measured by catheterization immediately after EVAR. Contrast-enhanced computed tomography was scheduled 12 months after EVAR to detect possible endoleaks.ResultsData were available for 34 patients who underwent EVAR for an AAA. Persisting type II endoleak was found in 8 patients (endoleak-positive group) but not in the other 26 patients (endoleak-negative group). The mean ± standard deviation SPI was significantly greater in the endoleak-positive group than in the endoleak-negative group (0.692 ± 0.048 vs. 0.505 ± 0.081, respectively; P = .001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that an SPI of 0.638 was the optimum cutoff value for predicting a persistent endoleak at 12 months with high accuracy (0.971; 33/34), sensitivity (1.00), and specificity (0.962) values. The mean change in AAA diameter was −4.28 ± 5.03 mm and 2.22 ± 4.54 mm in patients with SPI of <0.638 or ≥0.638, respectively (P = .002).ConclusionPatients with an SPI of ≥0.638 immediately after EVAR were more likely to have a persistent type II endoleak at 12 months with an accuracy of 0.971, and showed increases in aneurysm sac diameter compared with patients with an SPI of <0.638.

  14. Potentiation of E-4031-induced torsade de pointes by HMR1556 or ATX-II is not predicted by action potential short-term variability or triangulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, G; Dempster, J; Kane, K A; Coker, S J

    2007-12-01

    Torsade de pointes (TdP) can be induced by a reduction in cardiac repolarizing capacity. The aim of this study was to assess whether IKs blockade or enhancement of INa could potentiate TdP induced by IKr blockade and to investigate whether short-term variability (STV) or triangulation of action potentials preceded TdP. Experiments were performed in open-chest, pentobarbital-anaesthetized, alpha 1-adrenoceptor-stimulated, male New Zealand White rabbits, which received three consecutive i.v. infusions of either the IKr blocker E-4031 (1, 3 and 10 nmol kg(-1) min(-1)), the IKs blocker HMR1556 (25, 75 and 250 nmol kg(-1) min(-1)) or E-4031 and HMR1556 combined. In a second study rabbits received either the same doses of E-4031, the INa enhancer, ATX-II (0.4, 1.2 and 4.0 nmol kg(-1)) or both of these drugs. ECGs and epicardial monophasic action potentials were recorded. HMR1556 alone did not cause TdP but increased E-4031-induced TdP from 25 to 80%. ATX-II alone caused TdP in 38% of rabbits, as did E-4031; 75% of rabbits receiving both drugs had TdP. QT intervals were prolonged by all drugs but the extent of QT prolongation was not related to the occurrence of TdP. No changes in STV were detected and triangulation was only increased after TdP occurred. Giving modulators of ion channels in combination substantially increased TdP but, in this model, neither STV nor triangulation of action potentials could predict TdP.

  15. cobalt (ii), nickel (ii)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    Department of Chemistry Bayero University, P. M. B. 3011, Kano, Nigeria. E-mail: hnuhu2000@yahoo.com. ABSTRACT. The manganese (II), cobalt (II), nickel (II) and .... water and common organic solvents, but are readily soluble in acetone. The molar conductance measurement [Table 3] of the complex compounds in.

  16. Stable Versus Unstable Grade II High Ankle Sprains: A Prospective Study Predicting the Need for Surgical Stabilization and Time to Return to Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, James D; Bamford, Richard; Petrie, Aviva; McCollum, Graham A

    2016-04-01

    II injuries and may be used to identify which athletes may benefit from early arthroscopic assessment and stabilization. They may also be important in predicting the time frame for athletes' expected return to play. Level II, prospective comparative study. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

    2010-09-01

    Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM 2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality. The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO 2) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO 2 concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30-60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM 2.5 can also decline by 3-15 μg m -3 (4-25%) due to the lower SO 2 and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO x emissions, NO x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30-60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2-14 μg m -3 (3-12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O 3) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O 3 concentrations in the summer reduced by 8-30 ppb.

  18. Comparison of midlatitude ionospheric F region peak parameters and topside Ne profiles from IRI2012 model prediction with ground-based ionosonde and Alouette II observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordiyenko, G. I.; Yakovets, A. F.

    2017-07-01

    The ionospheric F2 peak parameters recorded by a ground-based ionosonde at the midlatitude station Alma-Ata [43.25N, 76.92E] were compared with those obtained using the latest version of the IRI model (http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/vitmo/iri2012_vitmo.html). It was found that for the Alma-Ata (Kazakhstan) location, the IRI2012 model describes well the morphology of seasonal and diurnal variations of the ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) and peak density height (hmF2) monthly medians. The model errors in the median foF2 prediction (percentage deviations between the median foF2 values and their model predictions) were found to vary approximately in the range from about -20% to 34% and showed a stable overestimation in the median foF2 values for daytime in January and July and underestimation for day- and nighttime hours in the equinoctial months. The comparison between the ionosonde hmF2 and IRI results clearly showed that the IRI overestimates the nighttime hmF2 values for March and September months, and the difference is up to 30 km. The daytime Alma-Ata hmF2 data were found to be close to the IRI predictions (deviations are approximately ±10-15 km) in winter and equinoctial months, except in July when the observed hmF2 values were much more (from approximately 50-200 km). The comparison between the Alouette foF2 data and IRI predictions showed mixed results. In particular, the Alouette foF2 data showed a tendency to be overestimated for daytime in winter months similar to the ionosonde data; however, the overestimated foF2 values for nighttime in the autumn equinox were in disagreement with the ionosonde observations. There were large deviations between the observed hmF2 values and their model predictions. The largest deviations were found during winter and summer (up to -90 km). The comparison of the Alouette II electron density profiles with those predicted by the adapted IRI2012 model in the altitude range hmF2 of the satellite position showed a great

  19. Optimal selection of the time of hazardous operations, and prediction of consequences of atmospheric releases of harmful matter: the 'Kursk' submarine study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklanov, A.; Havskov Sorensen, J.; Mahura, A.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: There are objects and events with higher than normal risks of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.) during certain periods. Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and may take place during transportation of waste or during various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is presented including two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach can be applied during the preparation stage, and the second during the operation stage. The methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the 'Kursk' nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137 Cs) show that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allow identifying the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, forecasts of possible consequences during phases of high and medium risks are performed based on a unit hypothetical release, e.g. 1 Bq. The analysis shows possible deposition fractions of 10 -11 Bq/m 2 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10 -12 -10 -13 Bq/m 2 for the remote areas of Scandinavia and Northwest Russia. The methodology may be applied to any potentially dangerous object involving a risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature. In the present paper, the methodology is applied to the handling of the

  20. The effect of unsteady and baroclinic forcing on predicted wind profiles in Large Eddy Simulations: Two case studies of the daytime atmospheric boundary layer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jesper Grønnegaard; Kelly, Mark C.; Gryning, Sven-Erik

    2013-01-01

    . The applied domain-scale pressure gradient and its height- and time-dependence are estimated from LIDAR measurements of the wind speed above the atmospheric boundary layer in the Høvsøre case, and from radio soundings and a network of ground-based pressure sensors in the Hamburg case. In the two case studies......-scale subsidence and advection, tend to reduce agreement with measurements, relative to the Høvsøre case. The Hamburg case illustrates that measurements of the surface pressure gradient and relatively infrequent radio soundings alone are not sufficient for accurate estimation of a height- and time...

  1. Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Beraki, AF

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available dedicated a large amount of resources to utilize Atmospheric General Circulation Models 66 (AGCMs) as operational seasonal forecast tools (Landman et al. 2012). These models 67 have all been developed outside of South Africa, but have been used extensively... Niña seasons (Landman et al. 2012; Landman and Beraki 2012). As noted above, coupled 99 models are largely assumed or hypothesized to represent the state of the art of seasonal 100 forecasting. In fact, it has been conclusively shown through...

  2. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part II: QSAR models of skin permeability and the relationships between skin permeability and skin sensitization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Skin permeability is widely considered to be mechanistically implicated in chemically-induced skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been identified as skin sensitizers, there have been very few reports analyzing the relationships between molecular structure and skin permeability of sensitizers and non-sensitizers. The goals of this study were to: (i) compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset of chemicals studied for their skin permeability; (ii) develop and rigorously validate QSAR models to predict skin permeability; and (iii) explore the complex relationships between skin sensitization and skin permeability. Based on the largest publicly available dataset compiled in this study, we found no overall correlation between skin permeability and skin sensitization. In addition, cross-species correlation coefficient between human and rodent permeability data was found to be as low as R 2 = 0.44. Human skin permeability models based on the random forest method have been developed and validated using OECD-compliant QSAR modeling workflow. Their external accuracy was high (Q 2 ext = 0.73 for 63% of external compounds inside the applicability domain). The extended analysis using both experimentally-measured and QSAR-imputed data still confirmed the absence of any overall concordance between skin permeability and skin sensitization. This observation suggests that chemical modifications that affect skin permeability should not be presumed a priori to modulate the sensitization potential of chemicals. The models reported herein as well as those developed in the companion paper on skin sensitization suggest that it may be possible to rationally design compounds with the desired high skin permeability but low sensitization potential. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin permeability dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin permeability. • No concordance between skin sensitization and

  3. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part II: QSAR models of skin permeability and the relationships between skin permeability and skin sensitization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Vinicius M. [Laboratory of Molecular Modeling and Design, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74605-220 (Brazil); Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Muratov, Eugene [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Laboratory of Theoretical Chemistry, A.V. Bogatsky Physical–Chemical Institute NAS of Ukraine, Odessa 65080 (Ukraine); Fourches, Denis [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole [ILS/Contractor supporting the NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods (NICEATM), P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Andrade, Carolina H. [Laboratory of Molecular Modeling and Design, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74605-220 (Brazil); Tropsha, Alexander, E-mail: alex_tropsha@unc.edu [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States)

    2015-04-15

    Skin permeability is widely considered to be mechanistically implicated in chemically-induced skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been identified as skin sensitizers, there have been very few reports analyzing the relationships between molecular structure and skin permeability of sensitizers and non-sensitizers. The goals of this study were to: (i) compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset of chemicals studied for their skin permeability; (ii) develop and rigorously validate QSAR models to predict skin permeability; and (iii) explore the complex relationships between skin sensitization and skin permeability. Based on the largest publicly available dataset compiled in this study, we found no overall correlation between skin permeability and skin sensitization. In addition, cross-species correlation coefficient between human and rodent permeability data was found to be as low as R{sup 2} = 0.44. Human skin permeability models based on the random forest method have been developed and validated using OECD-compliant QSAR modeling workflow. Their external accuracy was high (Q{sup 2}{sub ext} = 0.73 for 63% of external compounds inside the applicability domain). The extended analysis using both experimentally-measured and QSAR-imputed data still confirmed the absence of any overall concordance between skin permeability and skin sensitization. This observation suggests that chemical modifications that affect skin permeability should not be presumed a priori to modulate the sensitization potential of chemicals. The models reported herein as well as those developed in the companion paper on skin sensitization suggest that it may be possible to rationally design compounds with the desired high skin permeability but low sensitization potential. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin permeability dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin permeability. • No concordance between skin

  4. Predictive role of HER2/neu, topoisomerase-II-alpha, and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP-1) for response to adjuvant taxane-based chemotherapy in patients with intermediate-risk breast cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erber, Ramona; Gluz, Oleg; Brünner, Nils

    2015-01-01

    . In this study, we investigate a large cohort of patients with intermediate-risk BC treated within the WSG EC-DOC Trial for the predictive impact of topoisomerase-II-alpha, HER2/neu, and TIMP-1. Tumor tissue was available in a representative cohort of 772 cases of the WSG EC-DOC Trial collective which compared 4...

  5. Reactions at surfaces in the atmosphere: integration of experiments and theory as necessary (but not necessarily sufficient) for predicting the physical chemistry of aerosols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J

    2009-09-28

    While particles have significant deleterious impacts on human health, visibility and climate, quantitative understanding of their formation, composition and fates remains problematic. Indeed, in many cases, even qualitative understanding is lacking. One area of particular uncertainty is the nature of particle surfaces and how this determines interactions with gases in the atmosphere, including water, which is important for cloud formation and properties. The focus in this Perspective article is on some chemistry relevant to airborne particles and especially to reactions occurring on their surfaces. The intent is not to provide a comprehensive review, but rather to highlight a few selected examples of interface chemistry involving inorganic and organic species that may be important in the lower atmosphere. This includes sea salt chemistry, nitrate and nitrite ion photochemistry, organics on surfaces and heterogeneous reactions of oxides of nitrogen on proxies for airborne mineral dust and boundary layer surfaces. Emphasis is on the molecular level understanding that can only be gained by fully integrating experiment and theory to elucidate these complex systems.

  6. Phenomenology of atmospheric neutrinos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fedynitch Anatoli

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The detection of astrophysical neutrinos, certainly a break-through result, introduced new experimental challenges and fundamental questions about acceleration mechanisms of cosmic rays. On one hand IceCube succeeded in finding an unambiguous proof for the existence of a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux, on the other hand the precise determination of its spectral index and normalization requires a better knowledge about the atmospheric background at hundreds of TeV and PeV energies. Atmospheric neutrinos in this energy range originate mostly from decays of heavy-flavor mesons, which production in the phase space relevant for prompt leptons is uncertain. Current accelerator-based experiments are limited by detector acceptance and not so much by the collision energy. This paper recaps phenomenological aspects of atmospheric leptons and calculation methods, linking recent progress in flux predictions with particle physics at colliders, in particular the Large Hadron Collider.

  7. Atmospheric thermodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Iribarne, J V

    1973-01-01

    The thermodynamics of the atmosphere is the subject of several chapters in most textbooks on dynamic meteorology, but there is no work in English to give the subject a specific and more extensive treatment. In writing the present textbook, we have tried to fill this rather remarkable gap in the literature related to atmospheric sciences. Our aim has been to provide students of meteorology with a book that can playa role similar to the textbooks on chemical thermodynamics for the chemists. This implies a previous knowledge of general thermodynamics, such as students acquire in general physics courses; therefore, although the basic principles are reviewed (in the first four chapters), they are only briefly discussed, and emphasis is laid on those topics that will be useful in later chapters, through their application to atmospheric problems. No attempt has been made to introduce the thermodynamics of irreversible processes; on the other hand, consideration of heterogeneous and open homogeneous systems permits a...

  8. Atmospheric pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambrozo, J.; Guillossou, G.

    2008-01-01

    The atmosphere is the reservoir of numerous pollutants (nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, carbon oxides, particulates, volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) from natural origin or anthropogenic origin ( industry, transport, agriculture, district heating). With epidemiologic studies the atmospheric pollution is associated with an increase of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. At the european level, the technological progress, the legislation have allowed a reduction of pollutant emissions, however these efforts have to be continued because the sanitary impact of atmospheric pollution must not be underestimated, even if the risks appear less important that these ones in relation with tobacco, inside pollution or others factors of cardiovascular risks. Indeed, on these last factors an individual action is possible for the exposure to air pollution people have no control. (N.C.)

  9. Novel Bioinformatics-Based Approach for Proteomic Biomarkers Prediction of Calpain-2 & Caspase-3 Protease Fragmentation: Application to βII-Spectrin Protein

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Assaad, Atlal; Dawy, Zaher; Nemer, Georges; Kobeissy, Firas

    2017-01-01

    The crucial biological role of proteases has been visible with the development of degradomics discipline involved in the determination of the proteases/substrates resulting in breakdown-products (BDPs) that can be utilized as putative biomarkers associated with different biological-clinical significance. In the field of cancer biology, matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have shown to result in MMPs-generated protein BDPs that are indicative of malignant growth in cancer, while in the field of neural injury, calpain-2 and caspase-3 proteases generate BDPs fragments that are indicative of different neural cell death mechanisms in different injury scenarios. Advanced proteomic techniques have shown a remarkable progress in identifying these BDPs experimentally. In this work, we present a bioinformatics-based prediction method that identifies protease-associated BDPs with high precision and efficiency. The method utilizes state-of-the-art sequence matching and alignment algorithms. It starts by locating consensus sequence occurrences and their variants in any set of protein substrates, generating all fragments resulting from cleavage. The complexity exists in space O(mn) as well as in O(Nmn) time, where N, m, and n are the number of protein sequences, length of the consensus sequence, and length per protein sequence, respectively. Finally, the proposed methodology is validated against βII-spectrin protein, a brain injury validated biomarker.

  10. DNA Topoisomerase I Gene Copy Number and mRNA Expression Assessed as Predictive Biomarkers for Adjuvant Irinotecan in Stage II/III Colon Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygård, Sune Boris; Vainer, Ben; Nielsen, Signe L

    2016-01-01

    FISH and follow-up data were obtained from 534 patients. TOP1 gain was identified in 27 % using a single-probe enumeration strategy (≥ 4 TOP1 signals per cell), and in 31 % when defined by a TOP1/CEN20 ratio ≥ 1.5. The effect of additional irinotecan was not dependent on TOP1 FISH status. TOP1 m......PURPOSE: Prospective-retrospective assessment of the TOP1 gene copy number and TOP1 mRNA expression as predictive biomarkers for adjuvant irinotecan in stage II/III colon cancer (CC). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue microarrays were obtained from an adjuvant CC trial...... (PETACC3) where patients were randomized to 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid with or without additional irinotecan. TOP1 copy number status was analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) using a TOP1/CEN20 dual-probe combination. TOP1 mRNA data were available from previous analyses. RESULTS: TOP1...

  11. Updating long-range transport model predictions using real-time monitoring data in case of nuclear accidents with release to the atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raes, Frank; Tassone, Caterina; Grippa, Gianni; Zarimpas, Nicolas; Graziani, Giovanni

    1991-01-01

    A procedure is developed to reduce the uncertainties of long-range transport model predictions, in case of a large scale nuclear accident. It is based on the availability in 'real time' of the concentrations of airborne radioactive aerosols from automatic on-line monitors, which are presently being installed throughout Europe. Essentially, the procedure consists of: (1) constructing new (area) source terms from the measured field data as they become available; and (2) restart the prediction with these sources, rather than with the original (point) source. The procedure is applied to the Chernobyl accident. It is shown that the procedure is feasible and might result in an improvement of the prediction of the location of the cloud by several hundreds of kilometers and the actual levels with an order of magnitude. The weak point is the treatment of the vertical structure and transport of the cloud, which can only be solved when 'real-time' upper air observations are also available. (author)

  12. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  13. Atmospheric turbulence and diffusion research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosker, R.P. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    The Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division (well known in the atmospheric dispersion community as the Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Laboratory, ATDL) is one of several field facilities of NOAAs Air Resources Laboratory, headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland. The laboratory conducts research on matters of atmospheric diffusion and turbulent exchange, concerning air quality. ATDD focuses attention on the physics of the lower atmosphere, with special emphasis on the processes contributing to atmospheric transport, dispersion, deposition, and air-surface exchange, and on the development of predictive capabilities using the results of this research. Research is directed toward issues of national and global importance related to the missions of DOE, to DOE's Oak Ridge Field Office, and to NOAA. The program is divided into four major projects: plume transport and diffusion in the planetary boundary layer, complex topography, canopy micrometeorology, and air-surface exchange

  14. The atmospheric boundary layer — advances in knowledge and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.; Hess, G. D.; Physick, W. L.; Bougeault, P.

    1996-02-01

    We summarise major activities and advances in boundary-layer knowledge in the 25 years since 1970, with emphasis on the application of this knowledge to surface and boundary-layer parametrisation schemes in numerical models of the atmosphere. Progress in three areas is discussed: (i) the mesoscale modelling of selected phenomena; (ii) numerical weather prediction; and (iii) climate simulations. Future trends are identified, including the incorporation into models of advanced cloud schemes and interactive canopy schemes, and the nesting of high resolution boundary-layer schemes in global climate models.

  15. Alarming atmospheres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højlund, Marie; Kinch, Sofie

    2014-01-01

    Nurses working in the Neuro-Intensive Care Unit at Aarhus University Hospital lack the tools to prepare children for the alarming atmosphere they will enter when visiting a hospitalised relative. The complex soundscape dominated by alarms and sounds from equipment is mentioned as the main stressor...

  16. Sequence analysis and structure prediction of type II Pseudomonas sp. USM 4–55 PHA synthase and an insight into its catalytic mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Khairudin Nurul

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA, are biodegradable polyesters derived from many microorganisms such as the pseudomonads. These polyesters are in great demand especially in the packaging industries, the medical line as well as the paint industries. The enzyme responsible in catalyzing the formation of PHA is PHA synthase. Due to the limited structural information, its functional properties including catalysis are lacking. Therefore, this study seeks to investigate the structural properties as well as its catalytic mechanism by predicting the three-dimensional (3D model of the Type II Pseudomonas sp. USM 4–55 PHA synthase 1 (PhaC1P.sp USM 4–55. Results Sequence analysis demonstrated that PhaC1P.sp USM 4–55 lacked similarity with all known structures in databases. PSI-BLAST and HMM Superfamily analyses demonstrated that this enzyme belongs to the alpha/beta hydrolase fold family. Threading approach revealed that the most suitable template to use was the human gastric lipase (PDB ID: 1HLG. The superimposition of the predicted PhaC1P.sp USM 4–55 model with 1HLG covering 86.2% of the backbone atoms showed an RMSD of 1.15 Å. The catalytic residues comprising of Cys296, Asp451 and His479 were found to be conserved and located adjacent to each other. In addition to this, an extension to the catalytic mechanism was also proposed whereby two tetrahedral intermediates were believed to form during the PHA biosynthesis. These transition state intermediates were further postulated to be stabilized by the formation of oxyanion holes. Based on the sequence analysis and the deduced model, Ser297 was postulated to contribute to the formation of the oxyanion hole. Conclusion The 3D model of the core region of PhaC1P.sp USM 4–55 from residue 267 to residue 484 was developed using computational techniques and the locations of the catalytic residues were identified. Results from this study for the first time highlighted Ser297 potentially

  17. Topoisomerase II alpha and TLE3 as predictive markers of response to anthracycline and taxane-containing regimens for neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susini T

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Tommaso Susini,1 Barbara Berti,1 Carlo Carriero,1 Ketty Tavella,2 Jacopo Nori,3 Ermanno Vanzi,3 Cecilia Molino,1 Mariarosaria Di Tommaso,1 Marco Santini,1 Valeria Saladino,4 Simonetta Bianchi4 1Department of Health Science, Gynecology Section, 2Department of Health Science, Chemotherapy Section, University of Florence, Italy; 3Diagnostic Senology Unit, Azienda Ospedaliera-Universitaria Careggi, Florence, Italy; 4Department of Surgery and Translational Medicine, Pathology Unit, University of Florence, Italy Purpose: Anthracyclines and taxanes are considered the standard for neoadjuvant chemotherapy of breast cancer, although they are often associated with serious side effects and wide variability of individual response. In this study, we analyzed the value of topoisomerase II alpha (TOP2A and transducin-like enhancer of split 3 (TLE3 as predictive markers of response to therapy with anthracyclines and taxanes. Materials and methods: TOP2A and TLE3 protein expressions were evaluated using immunohistochemistry on 28 samples, obtained by core needle biopsy in patients with locally advanced breast carcinoma, subsequently subjected to epirubicin- and paclitaxel-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The immunohistochemical staining was correlated with the clinical response measured by the tumor size reduction evaluated by breast magnetic resonance imaging, prior and after chemotherapy, and by pathologic evaluation of the surgical specimen. Results: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy achieved a size reduction in 26/28 tumors (92.9%, with an average percentage decrease of 45.6%. A downstaging was achieved in 71.4% of the cases of locally advanced carcinoma. TOP2A positivity was correlated with a greater reduction in tumor diameter (P=0.06; negative staining for TLE3 was predictive of a better response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (P=0.07. A higher reduction in tumor diameter (P=0.03 was also found for tumors that were concurrently TLE3-negative and TOP2A

  18. The propagation of light pollution in the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinzano, P.; Falchi, F.

    2012-12-01

    Recent methods to map artificial night-sky brightness and stellar visibility across large territories or their distribution over the entire sky at any site are based on computation of the propagation of light pollution with Garstang models, a simplified solution of the radiative transfer problem in the atmosphere that allows fast computation by reducing it to a ray-tracing approach. They are accurate for a clear atmosphere, when a two-scattering approximation is acceptable, which is the most common situation. We present here up-to-date extended Garstang models (EGM), which provide a more general numerical solution for the radiative transfer problem applied to the propagation of light pollution in the atmosphere. We also present the LPTRAN software package, an application of EGM to high-resolution Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS) satellite measurements of artificial light emission and to GTOPO30 (Global 30 Arcsecond) digital elevation data, which provides an up-to-date method to predict the artificial brightness distribution of the night sky at any site in the world at any visible wavelength for a broad range of atmospheric situations and the artificial radiation density in the atmosphere across the territory. EGM account for (i) multiple scattering, (ii) wavelengths from 250 nm to infrared, (iii) the Earth's curvature and its screening effects, (iv) site and source elevation, (v) many kinds of atmosphere with the possibility of custom set-up (e.g. including thermal inversion layers), (vi) a mix of different boundary-layer aerosols and tropospheric aerosols, with the possibility of custom set-up, (vii) up to five aerosol layers in the upper atmosphere, including fresh and aged volcanic dust and meteoric dust, (viii) variations of the scattering phase function with elevation, (ix) continuum and line gas absorption from many species, ozone included, (x) up to five cloud layers, (xi) wavelength-dependent bidirectional

  19. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part II: QSAR models of skin permeability and the relationships between skin permeability and skin sensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Skin permeability is widely considered to be mechanistically implicated in chemically-induced skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been identified as skin sensitizers, there have been very few reports analyzing the relationships between molecular structure and skin permeability of sensitizers and non-sensitizers. The goals of this study were to: (i) compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset of chemicals studied for their skin permeability; (ii) develop and rigorously validate QSAR models to predict skin permeability; and (iii) explore the complex relationships between skin sensitization and skin permeability. Based on the largest publicly available dataset compiled in this study, we found no overall correlation between skin permeability and skin sensitization. In addition, cross-species correlation coefficient between human and rodent permeability data was found to be as low as R2=0.44. Human skin permeability models based on the random forest method have been developed and validated using OECD-compliant QSAR modeling workflow. Their external accuracy was high (Q2ext = 0.73 for 63% of external compounds inside the applicability domain). The extended analysis using both experimentally-measured and QSAR-imputed data still confirmed the absence of any overall concordance between skin permeability and skin sensitization. This observation suggests that chemical modifications that affect skin permeability should not be presumed a priori to modulate the sensitization potential of chemicals. The models reported herein as well as those developed in the companion paper on skin sensitization suggest that it may be possible to rationally design compounds with the desired high skin permeability but low sensitization potential. PMID:25560673

  20. Airborne Laser Infrared Absorption Spectrometer (ALIAS-II) for in situ Atmospheric Measurements of N(sub 2)0, CH(sub 4), CO, HCl, and NO(sub 2) from Balloon or RPA Platforms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D.; Herman, R.; Webster, C.; May, R.; Flesch, G.; Moyer, E.

    1998-01-01

    The Airborne Laser Infrared Absorption Spectrometer II (ALIAS-II) is a lightweight, high-resolution (0.0003 cm-1), scanning, mid-infrared absorption spectrometer based on cooled (80 K) lead-salt tunable diode laser sources.

  1. Imprecision of dose predictions for radionuclides released to the atmosphere: an application of the Monte Carlo-simulation-technique for iodine transported via the pasture-cow-milk pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, G.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1979-01-01

    The shortcomings of using mathematical models to determine compliance with regulatory standards are discussed. Methods to determine the reliability of radiation assessment models are presented. Since field testing studies are impractical, a deficiency method, which analyzes the variability of input parameters and the impact of their variability on the predicted dose, is used. The Monte Carlo technique is one of these methods. This technique is based on statistical properties of the model output when input parameters inserted in the model are selected at random from a prescribed distribution. The one big assumption one must make is that the model is a correct formulation of reality. The Gaussian plume model for atmospheric transport of airborne effluents was used to study the pasture-cow-milk-man exposure pathway and the dose calculated from radioiodine ( 131 I) transported over this pathway

  2. Imprecision of dose predictions for radionuclides released to the atmosphere: an application of the Monte Carlo-simulation-technique for iodine transported via the pasture-cow-milk pathway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwarz, G.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1979-01-01

    The shortcomings of using mathematical models to determine compliance with regulatory standards are discussed. Methods to determine the reliability of radiation assessment models are presented. Since field testing studies are impractical, a deficiency method, which analyzes the variability of input parameters and the impact of their variability on the predicted dose, is used. The Monte Carlo technique is one of these methods. This technique is based on statistical properties of the model output when input parameters inserted in the model are selected at random from a prescribed distribution. The one big assumption one must make is that the model is a correct formulation of reality. The Gaussian plume model for atmospheric transport of airborne effluents was used to study the pasture-cow-milk-man exposure pathway and the dose calculated from radioiodine (/sup 131/I) transported over this pathway. (DMC)

  3. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

    2014-04-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

  4. The use of Chernobyl fallout data to test model predictions of the transfer of 131I and 137Cs from the atmosphere through agricultural food chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.

    1991-01-01

    This paper highlights the results of a recent international model validation study (BIOMOVS/A4) that has collected data during the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident from 13 sites around the Northern Hemisphere. Models commonly used in the USA for regulatory assessments tended to overpredict by amounts that often approached and/or exceeded a factor of ten. Large overestimation was usually the result of compound conservatism employed in a model at numerous stages. In some cases, seemingly accurate predictions were the result of compensatory error. The study also revealed that similar models produced different results when operated by different users, and that accuracy was affected more frequently by the choice of parameter values than by differences in structural complexity. 4 refs., 3 figs

  5. Determination of the potential radiation exposure of the population close to the Asse II mine caused by deduction of radioactive substances with the discharge air in the normal operation using the ''Atmospheric Radionuclide-Transport-Model'' (ARTM); Ermittlung der potenziellen Strahlenexposition der Bevoelkerung in der Umgebung der Schachtanlage Asse II infolge Ableitung radioaktiver Stoffe mit den abwettern im bestimmungsgemaessen Betrieb mittels des ''atmospaerischen Radionuklid-Transport-Modells'' ARTM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esch, D.; Wittwer, C. [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Salzgitter (Germany)

    2014-01-20

    Between 1967 and 1978 125.787 packages filled with low-level and intermediate-level radioactive waste were emplaced in the mining plant Asse II. Volatile radioactive substances like H-3, C-14 and Rn-222 are released from the emplaced waste. These substances reach the ventilated parts of the mine and are released with the discharge air. The potential radiation exposure of the population caused by deduction of radioactive substances with the discharge air in the normal operation is determined by the ''Atmospheric Radionuclide-Transport-Model'' (ARTM). As result the maximal deductions of volatile radioactive substances with the discharge air in the normal operation of the Asse II mine lead to radiation exposure of the population, which is considerably lower than the permissible values of application rate.

  6. Achieving a predictable 24-hour return to normal activities after breast augmentation: part II. Patient preparation, refined surgical techniques, and instrumentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebbetts, John B

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this study was to develop practices that would allow patients undergoing subpectoral augmentation to predictably return to full normal activities within 24 hours after the operation, free of postoperative adjuncts. Part I of this study used motion and time study principles to reduce operative times, medication dosages, perioperative morbidity, and recovery times in augmentation mammaplasty. Part II of the study focuses on details of patient education, preoperative planning, instrumentation, and surgical technique modifications that were identified, modified, and implemented to achieve the results reported in part I. Two groups of 16 patients each (groups 1 and 2) were studied retrospectively for comparison to a third group of 627 patients (group 3) studied prospectively. Patients in group 1 had axillary partial retropectoral breast augmentations in 1982-1983, using dissociative anesthesia, blunt instrument implant pocket dissection, and Dow Corning, double-lumen implants containing 20 mg of methylprednisolone and 20 cc of saline in the outer lumen of the implants. Patients in group 2 (1990) had inframammary, retromammary augmentations by using a combination of blunt and electrocautery dissection, Surgitek Replicon polyurethane-covered, silicone gel-filled implants, and general endotracheal anesthesia. Patients in group 3 (1998 to 2001, n = 627) had inframammary partial retropectoral, inframammary retromammary, and axillary partial retropectoral augmentations under general endotracheal anesthesia. Refined practices and surgical techniques from studies of groups 1 and 2 were applied in group 3. Videotapes from operative procedures of groups 1 and 2 were analyzed with macromotion and micromotion study principles, and tables of events were formulated for each move during the operation for all personnel in the operating room. Extensive details of surgical technique were examined and reexamined in 13 different stages by using principles of motion and time

  7. NetMHCIIpan-3.0, a common pan-specific MHC class II prediction method including all three human MHC class II isotypes, HLA-DR, HLA-DP and HLA-DQ

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karosiene, Edita; Rasmussen, Michael; Blicher, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Major histocompatibility complex class II (MHCII) molecules play an important role in cell-mediated immunity. They present specific peptides derived from endosomal proteins for recognition by T helper cells. The identification of peptides that bind to MHCII molecules is therefore of great importa......MHCIIpan-3.0 method is the first pan-specific predictor covering all HLA class II molecules with known sequences including HLA-DR, HLA-DP, and HLA-DQ. The NetMHCpan-3.0 method is available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCIIpan-3.0....

  8. Review: the atmospheric boundary layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garratt, J. R.

    1994-10-01

    An overview is given of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over both continental and ocean surfaces, mainly from observational and modelling perspectives. Much is known about ABL structure over homogeneous land surfaces, but relatively little so far as the following are concerned, (i) the cloud-topped ABL (over the sea predominantly); (ii) the strongly nonhomogeneous and nonstationary ABL; (iii) the ABL over complex terrain. These three categories present exciting challenges so far as improved understanding of ABL behaviour and improved representation of the ABL in numerical models of the atmosphere are concerned.

  9. The atmosphere and ocean: A physical introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, N.

    1986-01-01

    The book's contents are: The Earth within the solar system. Composition and physical properties of the ocean and atmosphere. Radiation, temperature and stability. Water in the atmosphere. Global budgets of heat, water and salt. Observations of winds and currents. The influence of the Earth's rotation on fluid motion. Waves and tides. Energy transfer in the ocean-atmosphere system. Climate variability and predictability. The atmosphere and ocean are two different environmental systems, yet both are interdependent, interacting and exchanging energy, heat and matter. This book attempts to bring the study of the atmosphere and ocean together. It is a descriptive account of physical properties, exploring their common bases, similarities, interactions and fundamental differences

  10. Turbidity, SOLAR RADIATION - ATMOSPHERIC and other data from NOAA Ship DELAWARE II in the Gulf of Mexico, NW Atlantic and other waters from 1991-01-04 to 1994-12-06 (NODC Accession 9600123)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Conductivity, Temperature and Depth (CTD) and other data were collected in Gulf of Mexico, Mid-Atlantic Bight, and NW Atlantic (limit-40 W) using NOAA Ship...

  11. Turbidity, SOLAR RADIATION - ATMOSPHERIC and other data from AIRCRAFT and ATLANTIS II in the North Atlantic Ocean from 1989-04-21 to 1992-04-15 (NODC Accession 9200089)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The accession contains Bathythermograph (XBT and Aerial XBT) data collected as part of Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) / North Atlantic Bloom Survey (NABS)in...

  12. Myeloperoxidase-Dependent LDL Modifications in Bloodstream Are Mainly Predicted by Angiotensin II, Adiponectin, and Myeloperoxidase Activity: A Cross-Sectional Study in Men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim Zouaoui Boudjeltia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paradigm of atherogenesis proposes that low density lipoproteins (LDLs are trapped in subendothelial space of the vascular wall where they are oxidized. Previously, we showed that oxidation is not restricted to the subendothelial location. Myeloperoxidase (MPO, an enzyme secreted by neutrophils and macrophages, can modify LDL (Mox-LDL at the surface of endothelial cells. In addition we observed that the activation of the endothelial cells by angiotensin II amplifies this process. We suggested that induction of the NADPH oxidase complex was a major step in the oxidative process. Based on these data, we asked whether there was an independent association, in 121 patients, between NADPH oxidase modulators, such as angiotensin II, adiponectin, and levels of circulating Mox-LDL. Our observations suggest that the combination of blood angiotensin II, MPO activity, and adiponectin explains, at least partially, serum Mox-LDL levels.

  13. Balancing atmospheric carbon dioxide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goreau, T.J. (Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory, Univ. of the West Indies (JM))

    1990-01-01

    Rising carbon dioxide and global temperatures are causing increasing worldwide concern, and pressure towards an international law of the atmosphere is rapidly escalating, yet widespread misconceptions about the greenhouse effect's inevitability, time scale, and causes have inhibited effective consensus and action. Observations from Antarctic ice cores, Amazonian rain forests, and Carribean coral reefs suggest that the biological effects of climate change may be more severe than climate models predict. Efforts to limit emissions from fossil-fuel combustion alone are incapable of stabilizing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide requires coupled measures to balance sources and sinks of the gas, and will only be viable with large-scale investments in increased sustainable productivity on degraded tropical soils, and in long-term research on renewable energy and biomass product development in the developing countries. A mechanism is outlined which directly links fossil-fuel combustion sources of carbon dioxide to removal via increasing biotic productivity and storage. A preliminary cost-benefit analysis suggests that such measures are very affordable, costing far less than inaction. (With 88 refs.).

  14. Balancing atmospheric carbon dioxide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goreau, T J [Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory, Univ. of the West Indies (JM)

    1990-01-01

    Rising carbon dioxide and global temperatures are causing increasing worldwide concern, and pressure towards an international law of the atmosphere is rapidly escalating, yet widespread misconceptions about the greenhouse effect's inevitability, time scale, and causes have inhibited effective consensus and action. Observations from Antarctic ice cores, Amazonian rain forests, and Carribean coral reefs suggest that the biological effects of climate change may be more severe than climate models predict. Efforts to limit emissions from fossil-fuel combustion alone are incapable of stabilizing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide requires coupled measures to balance sources and sinks of the gas, and will only be viable with large-scale investments in increased sustainable productivity on degraded tropical soils, and in long-term research on renewable energy and biomass product development in the developing countries. A mechanism is outlined which directly links fossil-fuel combustion sources of carbon dioxide to removal via increasing biotic productivity and storage. A preliminary cost-benefit analysis suggests that such measures are very affordable, costing far less than inaction. (With 88 refs.).

  15. Carbonato-bridged Ni(II)2Ln(III)2 (Ln(III) = Gd(III), Tb(III), Dy(III)) complexes generated by atmospheric CO2 fixation and their single-molecule-magnet behavior: [(μ4-CO3)2{Ni(II)(3-MeOsaltn)(MeOH or H2O)Ln(III)(NO3)}2]·solvent [3-MeOsaltn = N,N'-bis(3-methoxy-2-oxybenzylidene)-1,3-propanediaminato].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Soichiro; Fujinami, Takeshi; Nishi, Koshiro; Matsumoto, Naohide; Mochida, Naotaka; Ishida, Takayuki; Sunatsuki, Yukinari; Re, Nazzareno

    2013-06-17

    Atmospheric CO2 fixation of [Ni(II)(3-MeOsaltn)(H2O)2]·2.5H2O [3-MeOsaltn = N,N'-bis(3-methoxy-2-oxybenzylidene)-1,3-propanediaminato], Ln(III)(NO3)3·6H2O, and triethylamine occurred in methanol/acetone, giving a first series of carbonato-bridged Ni(II)2Ln(III)2 complexes [(μ4-CO3)2{Ni(II)(3-MeOsaltn)(MeOH)Ln(III)(NO3)}2] (1Gd, 1Tb, and 1Dy). When the reaction was carried out in acetonitrile/water, it gave a second series of complexes [(μ4-CO3)2{Ni(II)(3-MeOsaltn)(H2O)Ln(III)(NO3)}2]·2CH3CN·2H2O (2Gd, 2Tb, and 2Dy). For both series, each Ni(II)2Ln(III)2 structure can be described as two di-μ-phenoxo-bridged Ni(II)Ln(III) binuclear units bridged by two carbonato CO3(2-) units to form a carbonato-bridged (μ4-CO3)2{Ni(II)2Ln(III)2} structure. The high-spin Ni(II) ion has octahedral coordination geometry, and the Ln(III) ion is coordinated by O9 donor atoms from Ni(II)(3-MeOsaltn), bidentate NO3(-), and one and two oxygen atoms of two CO3(2-) ions. The NO3(-) ion for the first series roughly lie on Ln-O(methoxy) bonds and are tilted toward the outside, while for the second series, the two oxygen atoms roughly lie on one of the Ln-O(phenoxy) bonds due to the intramolecular hydrogen bond. The temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibilities indicated a ferromagnetic interaction between the Ni(II) and Ln(III) ions (Ln(III) = Gd(III), Tb(III), Dy(III)) for all of the complexes, with a distinctly different magnetic behavior between the two series in the lowest-temperature region due to the Ln(III)-Ln(III) magnetic interaction and/or different magnetic anisotropies of the Tb(III) or Dy(III) ion. Alternating-current susceptibility measurements under the 0 and 1000 Oe direct-current (dc) bias fields showed no magnetic relaxation for the Ni(II)2Gd(III)2 complexes but exhibited an out-of-phase signal for Ni(II)2Tb(III)2 and Ni(II)2Dy(III)2, indicative of slow relaxation of magnetization. The energy barriers, Δ/kB, for the spin flipping were estimated from the Arrhenius

  16. Would be the Atmosphere Chaotic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isimar de Azevedo Santos

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The atmosphere has often been considered “chaotic” when in fact the “chaos” is a manifestation of the models that simulate it, which do not include all the physical mechanisms that exist within it. A weather prediction cannot be perfectly verified after a few days of integration due to the inherent nonlinearity of the equations of the hydrodynamic models. The innovative ideas of Lorenz led to the use of the ensemble forecast, with clear improvements in the quality of the numerical weather prediction. The present study addresses the statement that “even with perfect models and perfect observations, the ‘chaotic’ nature of the atmosphere would impose a finite limit of about two weeks to the predictability of the weather” as the atmosphere is not necessarily “chaotic”, but the models used in the simulation of atmospheric processes are. We conclude, therefore, that potential exists for developments to increase the horizon of numerical weather prediction, starting with better models and observations.

  17. NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Atmospheric Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) numerical weather...

  18. Atmospheric chemistry and climate

    OpenAIRE

    Satheesh, SK

    2012-01-01

    Atmospheric chemistry is a branch of atmospheric science where major focus is the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Knowledge of atmospheric composition is essential due to its interaction with (solar and terrestrial) radiation and interactions of atmospheric species (gaseous and particulate matter) with living organisms. Since atmospheric chemistry covers a vast range of topics, in this article the focus is on the chemistry of atmospheric aerosols with special emphasis on the Indian reg...

  19. High levels of microRNA-21 in the stroma of colorectal cancers predict short disease-free survival in stage II colon cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Boye Schnack; Jørgensen, Stine; Fog, Jacob Ulrik

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 25% of all patients with stage II colorectal cancer will experience recurrent disease and subsequently die within 5 years. MicroRNA-21 (miR-21) is upregulated in several cancer types and has been associated with survival in colon cancer. In the present study we developed a robust...... in situ hybridization assay using high-affinity Locked Nucleic Acid (LNA) probes that specifically detect miR-21 in formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue samples. The expression of miR-21 was analyzed by in situ hybridization on 130 stage II colon and 67 stage II rectal cancer specimens. The mi...... relative to the nuclear density (TBR) obtained using a red nuclear stain. High TBR (and TB) estimates of miR-21 expression correlated significantly with shorter disease-free survival (p = 0.004, HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.06-1.55) in the stage II colon cancer patient group, whereas no significant correlation...

  20. The expression of chemokine receptors CXCR3 and CXCR4 in predicting postoperative tumour progression in stages I-II colon cancer: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Changzheng; Yao, Yunfeng; Xue, Weicheng; Zhu, Wei-Guo; Peng, Yifan; Gu, Jin

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic significance of chemokine receptors in stage I/II colon cancer is unclear. We assessed the prognostic value of chemokine receptor CXCR3 and CXCR4 in stage I/II colon cancer. 145 patients with stage I/II colon cancer who underwent curative surgery alone from 2000 to 2007 were investigated. Chemokine receptor expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. The associations between CXCR3, CXCR4 and clinicopathological variables were analysed using the χ2 test, and the relationships between chemokine receptors and a 5-year disease-free survival were analysed by univariate and multivariate analyses. The high-expression rates of CXCR3 and CXCR4 were 17.9% (26/145) and 38.6% (56/145), respectively. There were no significant associations between the expressions of CXCR3, CXCR4 and clinicopathological factors including gender, age, tumour location, histological differentiation, pathological stage, lymphovascular invasion and pretreatment serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). The 5-year disease-free survival was not significantly different between low-expression groups and high-expression groups of CXCR3 and CXCR4. Multivariate analysis revealed that serum CEA and a number of retrieved lymph nodes, rather than chemokine receptors, were independent prognosticators. CXCR3 and CXCR4 are not independent prognosticators for stage I/II colon cancer after curative surgery.

  1. Predictive Performance of SYNTAX Score II in Patients With Left Main and Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease - Analysis of CREDO-Kyoto Registry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A.M. Campos (Carlos); D. van Klaveren (David); A. Iqbal (Anwarul); Y. Onuma (Yoshinobu); Y. Zhang (Ying); H.M. Garcia-Garcia (Hector); M.-A. Morel (Marie-Angel); V. Farooq (Vasim); Shiomi, H; Furukawa, Y; Nakagawa, Y; Kadota, K; P.A. Lemos Neto (Pedro); T. Kimura (Takeshi); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: SYNTAX score II (SSII) provides individualized estimates of 4-year mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in order to facilitate decision-making between these revascularization methods. The purpose of the present

  2. Methylation of WNT target genes AXIN2 and DKK1 as robust biomarkers for recurrence prediction in stage II colon cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kandimalla, R.; Linnekamp, J. F.; van Hooff, S.; Castells, A.; Llor, X.; Andreu, M.; Jover, R.; Goel, A.; Medema, J. P.

    2017-01-01

    Stage II colon cancer (CC) still remains a clinical challenge with patient stratification for adjuvant therapy (AT) largely relying on clinical parameters. Prognostic biomarkers are urgently needed for better stratification. Previously, we have shown that WNT target genes AXIN2, DKK1, APCDD1, ASCL2

  3. Towards a chromatographic similarity index to establish localised quantitative structure-retention relationships for retention prediction. II Use of Tanimoto similarity index in ion chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Soo Hyun; Talebi, Mohammad; Amos, Ruth I J; Tyteca, Eva; Haddad, Paul R; Szucs, Roman; Pohl, Christopher A; Dolan, John W

    2017-11-10

    Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationships (QSRR) are used to predict retention times of compounds based only on their chemical structures encoded by molecular descriptors. The main concern in QSRR modelling is to build models with high predictive power, allowing reliable retention prediction for the unknown compounds across the chromatographic space. With the aim of enhancing the prediction power of the models, in this work, our previously proposed QSRR modelling approach called "federation of local models" is extended in ion chromatography to predict retention times of unknown ions, where a local model for each target ion (unknown) is created using only structurally similar ions from the dataset. A Tanimoto similarity (TS) score was utilised as a measure of structural similarity and training sets were developed by including ions that were similar to the target ion, as defined by a threshold value. The prediction of retention parameters (a- and b-values) in the linear solvent strength (LSS) model in ion chromatography, log k=a - blog[eluent], allows the prediction of retention times under all eluent concentrations. The QSRR models for a- and b-values were developed by a genetic algorithm-partial least squares method using the retention data of inorganic and small organic anions and larger organic cations (molecular mass up to 507) on four Thermo Fisher Scientific columns (AS20, AS19, AS11HC and CS17). The corresponding predicted retention times were calculated by fitting the predicted a- and b-values of the models into the LSS model equation. The predicted retention times were also plotted against the experimental values to evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the models. The application of a TS threshold of 0.6 was found to successfully produce predictive and reliable QSRR models (Q ext(F2) 2 >0.8 and Mean Absolute Error<0.1), and hence accurate retention time predictions with an average Mean Absolute Error of 0.2min. Crown Copyright

  4. Predictive Ability of the SYNergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXus and Cardiac Surgery Score II for Long-term Mortality in Patients with Three-vessel Coronary Artery Disease Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Treated with Second-generation Drug-eluting Stents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Qiang He

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: The SS-II is an independent predictor of 5-year mortality in patients with three-vessel CAD undergoing PCI treated with second-generation DES, and demonstrates a superior predictive ability over the SS alone.

  5. Operational mesoscale atmospheric dispersion prediction using a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    surface layer energy exchange processes (Grell et al. 1994). The model can be ... tion, it is chosen for forecasting the wind field in ... of land surface where the energy exchange takes ...... plant under a hypothetical accidental scenario at a trop-.

  6. Combination of Mean Platelet Volume/Platelet Count Ratio and the APACHE II Score Better Predicts the Short-Term Outcome in Patients with Acute Kidney Injury Receiving Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Junhui; Li, Yingchuan; Sheng, Xiaohua; Wang, Feng; Cheng, Dongsheng; Jian, Guihua; Li, Yongguang; Feng, Liang; Wang, Niansong

    2018-03-29

    Both the Acute physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score and mean platelet volume/platelet count Ratio (MPR) can independently predict adverse outcomes in critically ill patients. This study was aimed to investigate whether the combination of them could have a better performance in predicting prognosis of patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) who received continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Two hundred twenty-three patients with AKI who underwent CRRT between January 2009 and December 2014 in a Chinese university hospital were enrolled. They were divided into survivals group and non-survivals group based on the situation at discharge. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used for MPR and APACHE II score, and to determine the optimal cut-off value of MPR for in-hospital mortality. Factors associated with mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The mean age of the patients was 61.4 years, and the overall in-hospital mortality was 48.4%. Acute cardiorenal syndrome (ACRS) was the most common cause of AKI. The optimal cut-off value of MPR for mortality was 0.099 with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.636. The AUC increased to 0.851 with the addition of the APACHE II score. The mortality of patients with of MPR > 0.099 was 56.4%, which was significantly higher than that of the control group with of ≤ 0.099 (39.6%, P= 0.012). Logistic regression analysis showed that average number of organ failure (OR = 2.372), APACHE II score (OR = 1.187), age (OR = 1.028) and vasopressors administration (OR = 38.130) were significantly associated with poor prognosis. Severity of illness was significantly associated with prognosis of patients with AKI. The combination of MPR and APACHE II score may be helpful in predicting the short-term outcome of AKI. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

  7. Combination of Mean Platelet Volume/Platelet Count Ratio and the APACHE II Score Better Predicts the Short-Term Outcome in Patients with Acute Kidney Injury Receiving Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junhui Li

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Both the Acute physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II score and mean platelet volume/platelet count Ratio (MPR can independently predict adverse outcomes in critically ill patients. This study was aimed to investigate whether the combination of them could have a better performance in predicting prognosis of patients with acute kidney injury (AKI who received continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT. Methods: Two hundred twenty-three patients with AKI who underwent CRRT between January 2009 and December 2014 in a Chinese university hospital were enrolled. They were divided into survivals group and non-survivals group based on the situation at discharge. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve was used for MPR and APACHE II score, and to determine the optimal cut-off value of MPR for in-hospital mortality. Factors associated with mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: The mean age of the patients was 61.4 years, and the overall in-hospital mortality was 48.4%. Acute cardiorenal syndrome (ACRS was the most common cause of AKI. The optimal cut-off value of MPR for mortality was 0.099 with an area under the ROC curve (AUC of 0.636. The AUC increased to 0.851 with the addition of the APACHE II score. The mortality of patients with of MPR > 0.099 was 56.4%, which was significantly higher than that of the control group with of ≤ 0.099 (39.6%, P= 0.012. Logistic regression analysis showed that average number of organ failure (OR = 2.372, APACHE II score (OR = 1.187, age (OR = 1.028 and vasopressors administration (OR = 38.130 were significantly associated with poor prognosis. Conclusion: Severity of illness was significantly associated with prognosis of patients with AKI. The combination of MPR and APACHE II score may be helpful in predicting the short-term outcome of AKI.

  8. Copper (II)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    CLEMENT O BEWAJI

    Valine (2 - amino - 3 – methylbutanoic acid), is a chemical compound containing .... Stability constant (Kf). Gibb's free energy. ) (. 1. −. ∆. Mol. JG. [CuL2(H2O)2] ... synthesis and characterization of Co(ii), Ni(ii), Cu (II), and Zn(ii) complexes with ...

  9. Modeling of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklouti, Nada

    2010-01-01

    This work is a prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclide from a chronic rejection of the nuclear power generating plant that can be located in one of the Tunisian sites: Skhira or Bizerte. Also it contains a study of acute rejection 'Chernobyl accident' which was the reference for the validation of GENII the code of modeling of atmospheric dispersion.

  10. Magic gamma rays, extra-atmospheric source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolufer, P.

    2010-01-01

    Without the atmospheric layer, the cosmos radiation would kill every living, our planet would be like the moon. The cosmic gamma ray to collide with gases in land cover, as it is disintegrated. They are harmless, they form a cone of light that points to the cosmic source comes from. On April 25, 2009 was born on the island of Palma Magic II and Magic I the best observer of atmospheric gamma rays of low intensity. (Author)

  11. The influence of temperature on low cycle fatigue behavior of prior cold worked 316L stainless steel (II) : life prediction and failure mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Seong Gu; Yoon, Sam Son; Lee, Soon Bok

    2003-01-01

    Tensile and low cycle fatigue tests on prior cold worked 316L stainless steel were carried out at various temperatures from room temperature to 650 deg. C. Fatigue resistance was decreased with increasing temperature and decreasing strain rate. Cyclic plastic deformation, creep, oxidation and interactions with each other are thought to be responsible for the reduction in fatigue resistance. Currently favored life prediction models were examined and it was found that it is important to select a proper life prediction parameter since stress-strain relation strongly depends on temperature. A phenomenological life prediction model was proposed to account for the influence of temperature on fatigue life and assessed by comparing with experimental result. LCF failure mechanism was investigated by observing fracture surfaces of LCF failed specimens with SEM

  12. Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that probabilistic forecasting may be a useful method for predicting persistent contrail formation. A probabilistic forecast to accurately predict contrail formation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) is created by using meteorological data based on hourly meteorological analyses from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as well as GOES water vapor channel measurements, combined with surface and satellite observations of contrails. Two groups of logistic models were created. The first group of models (SURFACE models) is based on surface-based contrail observations supplemented with satellite observations of contrail occurrence. The second group of models (OUTBREAK models) is derived from a selected subgroup of satellite-based observations of widespread persistent contrails. The mean accuracies for both the SURFACE and OUTBREAK models typically exceeded 75 percent when based on the RUC or ARPS analysis data, but decreased when the logistic models were derived from ARPS forecast data.

  13. Accuracy of a composite score using daily SAPS II and LOD scores for predicting hospital mortality in ICU patients hospitalized for more than 72 h.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timsit, J F; Fosse, J P; Troché, G; De Lassence, A; Alberti, C; Garrouste-Orgeas, M; Azoulay, E; Chevret, S; Moine, P; Cohen, Y

    2001-06-01

    In most databases used to build general severity scores the median duration of intensive care unit (ICU) stay is less than 3 days. Consequently, these scores are not the most appropriate tools for measuring prognosis in studies dealing with ICU patients hospitalized for more than 72 h. To develop a new prognostic model based on a general severity score (SAPS II), an organ dysfunction score (LOD) and evolution of both scores during the first 3 days of ICU stay. Prospective multicenter study. Twenty-eight intensive care units (ICUs) in France. A training data-set was created with four ICUs during an 18-month period (893 patients). Seventy percent of the patients were medical (628) aged 66 years. The median SAPS II was 38. The ICU and hospital mortality rates were 22.7% and 30%, respectively. Forty-seven percent (420 patients) were transferred from hospital wards. In this population, the calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square: 37.4, P = 0.001) and the discrimination [area under the ROC curves: 0.744 (95 % CI: 0.714-0.773)] of the original SAPS II were relatively poor. A validation data set was created with a random panel of 24 French ICUs during March 1999 (312 patients). The LOD and SAPS II scores were calculated during the first (SAPS1, LOD1), second (SAPS2, LOD2), and third (SAPS3, LOD3) calendar days. The LOD and SAPS scores alterations were assigned the value "1" when scores increased with time and "0" otherwise. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to select variables measured during the first three calendar days, and independently associated with death. Selected variables were: SAPS II at admission [OR: 1.04 (95 % CI: 1.027-1.053) per point], LOD [OR: 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.085-1.253) per point], transfer from ward [OR: 1.74 (95 % CI: 1.25-2.42)], as well as SAPS3-SAPS2 alterations [OR: 1.516 (95 % CI: 1.04-2.22)], and LOD3-LOD2 alterations [OR: 2.00 (95 % CI: 1.29-3.11)]. The final model has good calibration and discrimination properties in the

  14. Circulating Tyrosinase and MART-1 mRNA does not Independently Predict Relapse or Survival in Patients with AJCC Stage I–II Melanoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Henrik; Sørensen, Boe S; Sjoegren, Pia

    2006-01-01

    The detection of melanoma cells in peripheral blood has been proposed to select patients with a high risk of relapse. In this study, tyrosinase and melanoma antigen recognized by T cells 1 (MART-1) mRNA expression was evaluated in serial samples obtained before definitive surgery and during follow......-up in patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I-II melanoma. Serial samples (n=2,262) were collected from 236 patients from 1997 to 2002. Analyses of the RNA samples were performed with a calibrated reverse transcriptase-PCR assay. Gender, age, primary tumor site, ulceration, thickness, Clark...

  15. Serum YKL-40 Predicts Relapse-Free and Overall Survival in Patients With American Joint Committee on Cancer Stage I and II Melanoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Henrik; Johansen, Julia S; Sjoegren, Pia

    2006-01-01

    level has been associated with poor prognosis in patients with several cancer types. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Serum samples from 234 patients with stage I (n = 162) and II (n = 72) melanoma were analyzed for YKL-40 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Serial samples were obtained before definitive primary...... surgery and during follow-up. RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 66 months (range, 1 to 97 months), 41 relapses (18%) and 39 deaths (17%) were observed. Serum YKL-40 treated as an updated continuous covariate were analyzed together with the covariates sex, age, primary tumor site, ulceration...

  16. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lockwood, J G

    1982-09-16

    The effects of increasing CO/sub 2/ concentrations in the atmosphere are estimated using general circulation models (GCMs), which have the ability to portray many of the nonlinear feedback processes which serve to regulate atmospheric (and hence climatic) changes. GCMs predict that a doubling of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would result in a 2-3 k increase of globally averaged surface air temperature. The largest warming will occur in the winter in high latitudes. Detection studies are now being directed towards isolating those parts of observed climate fluctuations that are attributable to increasing atmospheric CO/sub 2/. (KRM)

  17. Lifetime prediction of EC, DPA, akardite II and MNA stabilized triple base propellants, comparison of heat generation rate and stabilizer consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boers, M.N.; Klerk, W.P.C. de

    2005-01-01

    A lifetime prediction study is carried out on four triple base propellant compositions by artificial ageing. The ageing effects are studied with High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) and Heat Flow Calorimetry (HFC) in order to find the most effective stabilizer and to evaluate the advantages

  18. Lifetime prediction of EC, DPA, Akardite II and MNA stabilized triple base propellants, comparison of heat generation rate and stabilizer consumption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boers, Marco N.; Klerk, Willem (Wim) P.C. de [TNO Defence, Security and Safety, P. O. Box 45, 2280 AA Rijswijk ZH (Netherlands)

    2005-10-01

    A lifetime prediction study is carried out on four triple base propellant compositions by artificial ageing. The ageing effects are studied with High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) and Heat Flow Calorimetry (HFC) in order to find the most effective stabilizer and to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of both methods. (Abstract Copyright [2005], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  19. Prediction of mineral scale formation in geothermal and oilfield operations using the Extended UNIQUAC model - Part II. Carbonate-scaling minerals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villafafila, Ada; Thomsen, Kaj; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2006-01-01

    Two additional parameters to account for the pressure dependency of solubility are added to the Extended UNIQUAC model presented by Thomsen and Rasmussen (1999). The improved model has been used for correlation and prediction of vapor-liquid-solid equilibrium for different carbonate systems (CaCO...

  20. Incremental Validity of WISC-IV[superscript UK] Factor Index Scores with a Referred Irish Sample: Predicting Performance on the WIAT-II[superscript UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canivez, Gary L.; Watkins, Marley W.; James, Trevor; Good, Rebecca; James, Kate

    2014-01-01

    Background: Subtest and factor scores have typically provided little incremental predictive validity beyond the omnibus IQ score. Aims: This study examined the incremental validity of Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth UK Edition (WISC-IV[superscript UK]; Wechsler, 2004a, "Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth UK…

  1. Toward the prediction of class I and II mouse major histocompatibility complex-peptide-binding affinity: in silico bioinformatic step-by-step guide using quantitative structure-activity relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Doytchinova, Irini A; Flower, Darren R

    2007-01-01

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis is a cornerstone of modern informatics. Predictive computational models of peptide-major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-binding affinity based on QSAR technology have now become important components of modern computational immunovaccinology. Historically, such approaches have been built around semiqualitative, classification methods, but these are now giving way to quantitative regression methods. We review three methods--a 2D-QSAR additive-partial least squares (PLS) and a 3D-QSAR comparative molecular similarity index analysis (CoMSIA) method--which can identify the sequence dependence of peptide-binding specificity for various class I MHC alleles from the reported binding affinities (IC50) of peptide sets. The third method is an iterative self-consistent (ISC) PLS-based additive method, which is a recently developed extension to the additive method for the affinity prediction of class II peptides. The QSAR methods presented here have established themselves as immunoinformatic techniques complementary to existing methodology, useful in the quantitative prediction of binding affinity: current methods for the in silico identification of T-cell epitopes (which form the basis of many vaccines, diagnostics, and reagents) rely on the accurate computational prediction of peptide-MHC affinity. We have reviewed various human and mouse class I and class II allele models. Studied alleles comprise HLA-A*0101, HLA-A*0201, HLA-A*0202, HLA-A*0203, HLA-A*0206, HLA-A*0301, HLA-A*1101, HLA-A*3101, HLA-A*6801, HLA-A*6802, HLA-B*3501, H2-K(k), H2-K(b), H2-D(b) HLA-DRB1*0101, HLA-DRB1*0401, HLA-DRB1*0701, I-A(b), I-A(d), I-A(k), I-A(S), I-E(d), and I-E(k). In this chapter we show a step-by-step guide into predicting the reliability and the resulting models to represent an advance on existing methods. The peptides used in this study are available from the AntiJen database (http://www.jenner.ac.uk/AntiJen). The PLS method

  2. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  3. Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 8. Impacts of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on agricultural growing seasons and crop water use efficiencies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, J. E.

    1982-09-01

    The researchable areas addressed relate to the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural growing seasons and crop adaptation responses on a global basis. The research activities proposed are divided into the following two main areas of investigation: anticipated climate change impacts on the physical environmental characteristics of the agricultural growing seasons and, the most probable food crop responses to the possible changes in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels in plant environments. The main physical environmental impacts considered are the changes in temperature, or more directly, thermal energy levels and the growing season evapotranspiration-precipitation balances. The resulting food crop, commercial forest and rangeland species response impacts addressed relate to potential geographical shifts in agricultural growing seasons as determined by the length in days of the frost free period, thermal energy changes and water balance changes. In addition, the interaction of possible changes in plant water use efficiencies during the growing season in relationship to changing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations, is also considered under the scenario of global warming due to increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration. These proposed research investigations are followed by adaptive response evaluations.

  4. Neurochemical and structural markers in the brain predicting best choice-of-treatment in patients with schizophrenia - The Pan European Collaboration on Antipsychotic Naïve Schizophrenia II (PECANS II) study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jessen, Kasper; Bojesen, Kirsten Borup; Sigvard, Anne Mette

    Background: Insufficient treatment response to dopaminergic antipsychotics constitutes a major challenge in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia and seems to be related to persistently high levels of the neurotransmitter glutamate. Excess glutamate is neurotoxic and may cause the progress......Background: Insufficient treatment response to dopaminergic antipsychotics constitutes a major challenge in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia and seems to be related to persistently high levels of the neurotransmitter glutamate. Excess glutamate is neurotoxic and may cause...... subgroup with good treatment response. Materials and methods: PECANS II is a prospective follow-up study of 60 initial antipsychotic naïve patients with schizophrenia and 60 matched healthy controls. Brain levels of glutamate are measured with proton magnetic resonance imaging (1H-MRS), dopaminergic...... rating scales. All examinations are performed before and after 6 weeks’ treatment with a partial dopamine agonist (aripiprazole), and further after 6 months and 2 years. Patients are also examined with neuropsychological and psychophysiological test batteries as part of co-operating projects. Results...

  5. (II) complexes

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    activities of Schiff base tin (II) complexes. Neelofar1 ... Conclusion: All synthesized Schiff bases and their Tin (II) complexes showed high antimicrobial and ...... Singh HL. Synthesis and characterization of tin (II) complexes of fluorinated Schiff bases derived from amino acids. Spectrochim Acta Part A: Molec Biomolec.

  6. Atmospheric oxidation of selected alcohols and esters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, K H; Cavalli, F

    2001-03-01

    The decision whether it is appropriate and beneficial for the environment to deploy specific oxygenated organic compounds as replacements for traditional solvent types requires a quantitative assessment of their potential atmospheric impacts including tropospheric ozone and other photooxidant formation. This involves developing chemical mechanisms for the gasphase atmospheric oxidation of the compounds which can be reliably used in models to predict their atmospheric reactivity under a variety of environmental conditions. Until this study, there was very little information available concerning the atmospheric fate of alcohols and esters. The objectives of this study were to measure the atmospheric reaction rates and to define atmospheric reaction mechanisms for the following selected oxygenated volatile organic compounds: the alcohols, 1-butanol and 1-pentanol, and the esters, methyl propionate and dimethyl succinate. The study has successfully addressed these objectives. (orig.)

  7. CD133 expression is not an independent prognostic factor in stage II and III colorectal cancer but may predict the better outcome in patients with adjuvant therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mia-Jan, Khalilullah; Jung, So Young; Kim, Ik-Yong; Oh, Sung Soo; Choi, EunHee; Chang, Sei Jin; Kang, Tae Young; Cho, Mee-Yon

    2013-01-01

    Cancer stem cells (CSCs) are notorious for their capacity of tumor progression, metastasis or resistance to chemo-radiotherapy. However, the undisputed role of cancer stem marker, CD133, in colorectal cancers (CRCs) is not clear yet. We assessed 271 surgically-resected stage II and III primary CRCs with (171) and without (100) adjuvant therapy after surgery. CD133 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemical (IHC) staining and real-time RT-PCR. CD133 promoter methylation was quantified by pyrosequencing. The CD133 IHC expression was significantly correlated with mRNA expression (p=0.0257) and inversely correlated with the promoter methylation (p=0.0001). CD133 was expressed more frequently in rectal cancer (p=0.0035), and in moderately differentiated tumors (p=0.0378). In survival analysis, CD133 expression was not significantly correlated with overall survival (OS) (p=0.9689) as well as disease-free survival (DFS) (p=0.2103). However, CD133+ tumors were significantly associated with better OS in patients with adjuvant therapy compared to those without adjuvant therapy (p<0.0001, HR 0.125, 95% CI 0.052-0.299). But the patients with CD133- tumors did not show any significant difference of survival according to adjuvant therapy (p=0.055, HR 0.500, 95% CI 0.247-1.015). In stage II and III CRCs, CD133 IHC expression may signify the benefit for adjuvant therapy although it is not an independent prognostic factor

  8. The APACHE II measured on patients' discharge from the Intensive Care Unit in the prediction of mortality APACHE II medido en la salida de los pacientes de la Unidad de Terapia Intensiva en la previsión de la mortalidad APACHE II medido na saída dos pacientes da Unidade de Terapia Intensiva na previsão da mortalidade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Gonzaga dos Santos Cardoso

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to analyze the performance of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II, measured based on the data from the last 24 hours of hospitalization in ICU, for patients transferred to the wards. METHOD: an observational, prospective and quantitative study using the data from 355 patients admitted to the ICU between January and July 2010, who were transferred to the wards. RESULTS: the discriminatory power of the AII-OUT prognostic index showed a statistically significant area beneath the ROC curve. The mortality observed in the sample was slightly greater than that predicted by the AII-OUT, with a Standardized Mortality Ratio of 1.12. In the calibration curve the linear regression analysis showed the R2 value to be statistically significant. CONCLUSION: the AII-OUT could predict mortality after discharge from ICU, with the observed mortality being slightly greater than that predicted, which shows good discrimination and good calibration. This system was shown to be useful for stratifying the patients at greater risk of death after discharge from ICU. This fact deserves special attention from health professionals, particularly nurses, in managing human and technological resources for this group of patients. OBJETIVO: analizar el desempeño del Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II, medido con base en los datos de la últims 24 horas de internación en la UTI, en los pacientes con transferencia para las enfermerías. MÉTODO: estudio observacional, prospectivo y cuantitativo con datos de 355 pacientes admitidos en la UTI entre enero y julio de 2010 que fueron transferidos para las enfermerías. RESULTADOS: el poder discriminatorio del índice pronóstico AII-SALIDA demostró un área debajo de la curva ROC estadísticamente significativa. La mortalidad observada en la muestra fue discretamente mayor que la prevista por el AII-SALIDA, con una Razón de Mortalidad Estandarizada de 1,12. En la curva de

  9. Atmospheric anthropic impacts tracked by the French atmospheric mobile observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuesta, J.; Chazette, P.; Flamant, P. H.

    2009-04-01

    A new ATmospheric Mobile ObServatory, so called "ATMOS", has been developed by the LiMAG "Lidar, Meteorology and Geophysics" team of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) in France, in order to contribute to international field campaigns for studying atmospheric physico-chemistry, air quality and climate (i.e. aerosols, clouds, trace gazes, atmospheric dynamics and energy budget) and the ground-based validation of satellite observations. ATMOS has been deployed in the framework of i) LISAIR, for monitoring air quality in Paris in 2005, ii) AMMA "African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis", in Tamanrasset and in Niamey for observing the aerosols and the atmospheric boundary layer in the Sahara and in the Sahel in 2006, iii) COPS "Convectively and Orographycally driven Precipitation Study" in the Rhin Valley in 2007 and iv) the validation of the spatial mission CALIPSO, launched in April 2006. In the coming years, ATMOS will be deployed i) in the Paris Megacity, in the framework of MEGAPOLI (2009-2010), ii) in southern France (near Marseille) for the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment CHARMEX (2011-2012) and iii) the validation of ADM-Aeolus in 2010-2011 and Earth-Care in 2012. ATMOS payload is modular, accounting for the different platforms, instruments and measuring techniques. The deployment of ATMOS is an essential contribution to field campaigns, complementing the fixed sites, and a potential alternative of airborne platforms, heavier and more expensive. ATMOS mobile payload comprises both the remote sensing platform MOBILIS ("Moyens mOBIles de téLédetection de l'IPSL") and the in-situ physico-chemical station SAMMO ("Station Aérosols et chiMie MObile"). MOBILIS is an autonomous and high-performance system constituted by a full set of active and passive remote sensing instrumentation (i.e. Lidars and radiometers), whose payload may be adapted for either i) long term fixed monitoring in a maritime container or a shelter, ii) ground-based transect

  10. Southern hemisphere ocean CO2 uptake: reconciling atmospheric and oceanic estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, T.; Matear, R.; Rayner, P.; Francey, R.

    2003-01-01

    Using an atmospheric inversion model we investigate the southern hemisphere ocean CO 2 uptake. From sensitivity studies that varied both the initial ocean flux distribution and the atmospheric data used in the inversion, our inversion predicted a total (ocean and land) uptake of 1.65-1.90 Gt C/yr. We assess the consistency between the mean southern hemisphere ocean uptake predicted by an atmospheric inversion model for the 1991-1997 period and the T99 ocean flux estimate based on observed pCO 2 in Takahashi et al. (2002; Deep-Sea Res II, 49, 1601-1622). The inversion can not match the large 1.8 Gt C/yr southern extratropical (20-90 deg S) uptake of the T99 ocean flux estimate without producing either unreasonable land fluxes in the southern mid-latitudes or by increasing the mismatches between observed and simulated atmospheric CO 2 data. The southern extratropical uptake is redistributed between the mid and high latitudes. Our results suggest that the T99 estimate of the Southern Ocean uptake south of 50 deg S is too large, and that the discrepancy reflects the inadequate representation of wintertime conditions in the T99 estimate

  11. The atmospheric release advisory capability (ARAC): A federal emergency response capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, M.H.; Sullivan, T.J.

    1988-03-01

    The Atmospheric Release Capability (ARAC) is a Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored emergency-response service set up to provide real-time prediction of the dose levels and the extent of surface contamination resulting from a broad range of possible occurrences (accidents, spills, extortion threats involving nuclear material, reentry of nuclear-powered satellites, and atmospheric nuclear tests) that could involve the release of airborne radioactive material. During the past decade, ARAC has responded to more than 150 real-time situations, including exercises. The most notable responses include the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania, the Titan II missile accident in Arkansas, the reentry of the USSR's COSMOS-954 into the atmosphere over Canada, the accidental release of uranium hexafluoride from the Sequoyah Facility accident in Oklahoma, and, most recently, the Chernobyl reactor accident in the Soviet Union. ARAC currently supports the emergency-preparedness plans at 50 Department of Defense (DOD) and DOE sites within the US and also responds to accidents that happen elsewhere. Our ARAC center serves as the focal point for data acquisition, data analysis and assessments during a response, using a computer-based communication network to acquire real-time weather data from the accident site and the surrounding region, as well as pertinent accident information. Its three-dimensional computer models for atmospheric dispersion, MATHEW and ADPIC, digest all this information and produce the predictions used in accident assessment. 9 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  12. Solute transport in crystalline rocks at Äspö — II: Blind predictions, inverse modelling and lessons learnt from test STT1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakob, Andreas; Mazurek, Martin; Heer, Walter

    2003-03-01

    Based on the results from detailed structural and petrological characterisation and on up-scaled laboratory values for sorption and diffusion, blind predictions were made for the STT1 dipole tracer test performed in the Swedish Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory. The tracers used were nonsorbing, such as uranine and tritiated water, weakly sorbing 22Na +, 85Sr 2+, 47Ca 2+and more strongly sorbing 86Rb +, 133Ba 2+, 137Cs +. Our model consists of two parts: (1) a flow part based on a 2D-streamtube formalism accounting for the natural background flow field and with an underlying homogeneous and isotropic transmissivity field and (2) a transport part in terms of the dual porosity medium approach which is linked to the flow part by the flow porosity. The calibration of the model was done using the data from one single uranine breakthrough (PDT3). The study clearly showed that matrix diffusion into a highly porous material, fault gouge, had to be included in our model evidenced by the characteristic shape of the breakthrough curve and in line with geological observations. After the disclosure of the measurements, it turned out that, in spite of the simplicity of our model, the prediction for the nonsorbing and weakly sorbing tracers was fairly good. The blind prediction for the more strongly sorbing tracers was in general less accurate. The reason for the good predictions is deemed to be the result of the choice of a model structure strongly based on geological observation. The breakthrough curves were inversely modelled to determine in situ values for the transport parameters and to draw consequences on the model structure applied. For good fits, only one additional fracture family in contact with cataclasite had to be taken into account, but no new transport mechanisms had to be invoked. The in situ values for the effective diffusion coefficient for fault gouge are a factor of 2-15 larger than the laboratory data. For cataclasite, both data sets have values comparable to

  13. Everglades Ecological Forecasting II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Enhance the Capabilities of Everglades National Park to Monitor & Predict Mangrove Extent to Aid Current Restoration Efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, Donnie; Wolfe, Amy; Ba, Adama; Nyquist, Mckenzie; Rhodes, Tyler; Toner, Caitlin; Cabosky, Rachel; Gotschalk, Emily; Gregory, Brad; Kendall, Candace

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves act as a transition zone between fresh and salt water habitats by filtering and indicating salinity levels along the coast of the Florida Everglades. However, dredging and canals built in the early 1900s depleted the Everglades of much of its freshwater resources. In an attempt to assist in maintaining the health of threatened habitats, efforts have been made within Everglades National Park to rebalance the ecosystem and adhere to sustainably managing mangrove forests. The Everglades Ecological Forecasting II team utilized Google Earth Engine API and satellite imagery from Landsat 5, 7, and 8 to continuously create land-change maps over a 25 year period, and to allow park officials to continue producing maps in the future. In order to make the process replicable for project partners at Everglades National Park, the team was able to conduct a supervised classification approach to display mangrove regions in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. As freshwater was depleted, mangroves encroached further inland and freshwater marshes declined. The current extent map, along with transition maps helped create forecasting models that show mangrove encroachment further inland in the year 2030 as well. This project highlights the changes to the Everglade habitats in relation to a changing climate and hydrological changes throughout the park.

  14. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  15. Implications of secondary structure prediction and amino acid sequence comparison of class I and class II phosphoribosyl diphosphate synthases on catalysis, regulation, and quaternary structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krath, B N; Hove-Jensen, B

    2001-01-01

    Spinach 5-phospho-D-ribosyl alpha-1-diphosphate (PRPP) synthase isozyme 4 was synthesized in Escherichia coli and purified to near homogeneity. The activity of the enzyme is independent of P(i); it is inhibited by ADP in a competitive manner, indicating a lack of an allosteric site; and it accepts...... is consistent with a homotrimer. Secondary structure prediction shows that spinach PRPP synthase isozyme 4 has a general folding similar to that of Bacillus subtilis class I PRPP synthase, for which the three-dimensional structure has been solved, as the position and extent of helices and beta-sheets of the two...... in the spinach enzyme. In contrast, residues of the active site of B. subtilis PRPP synthase show extensive conservation in spinach PRPP synthase isozyme 4....

  16. Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

    2018-02-01

    Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

  17. SRNL EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITY FOR ATMOSPHERIC CONTAMINANT RELEASES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koffman, L; Chuck Hunter, C; Robert Buckley, R; Robert Addis, R

    2006-01-01

    Emergency response to an atmospheric release of chemical or radiological contamination is enhanced when plume predictions, field measurements, and real-time weather information are integrated into a geospatial framework. The Weather Information and Display (WIND) System at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) utilizes such an integrated framework. The rapid availability of predictions from a suite of atmospheric transport models within this geospatial framework has proven to be of great value to decision makers during an emergency involving an atmospheric contaminant release

  18. Using the CIFIST grid of CO5BOLD 3D model atmospheres to study the effects of stellar granulation on photometric colours. II. The role of convection across the H-R diagram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kučinskas, A.; Klevas, J.; Ludwig, H.-G.; Bonifacio, P.; Steffen, M.; Caffau, E.

    2018-05-01

    Aims: We studied the influence of convection on the spectral energy distributions (SEDs), photometric magnitudes, and colour indices of different types of stars across the H-R diagram. Methods: The 3D hydrodynamical CO5BOLD, averaged ⟨3D⟩, and 1D hydrostatic LHD model atmospheres were used to compute SEDs of stars on the main sequence (MS), main sequence turn-off (TO), subgiant branch (SGB), and red giant branch (RGB), in each case at two different effective temperatures and two metallicities, [M/H] = 0.0 and - 2.0. Using the obtained SEDs, we calculated photometric magnitudes and colour indices in the broad-band Johnson-Cousins UBVRI and 2MASS JHKs, and the medium-band Strömgren uvby photometric systems. Results: The 3D-1D differences in photometric magnitudes and colour indices are small in both photometric systems and typically do not exceed ± 0.03 mag. Only in the case of the coolest giants located on the upper RGB are the differences in the U and u bands able reach ≈-0.2 mag at [M/H] = 0.0 and ≈-0.1 mag at [M/H] = -2.0. Generally, the 3D-1D differences are largest in the blue-UV part of the spectrum and decrease towards longer wavelengths. They are also sensitive to the effective temperature and are significantly smaller in hotter stars. Metallicity also plays a role and leads to slightly larger 3D-1D differences at [M/H] = 0.0. All these patterns are caused by a complex interplay between the radiation field, opacities, and horizontal temperature fluctuations that occur due to convective motions in stellar atmospheres. Although small, the 3D-1D differences in the magnitudes and colour indices are nevertheless comparable to or larger than typical photometric uncertainties and may therefore cause non-negligible systematic differences in the estimated effective temperatures.

  19. Model for Atmospheric Propagation of Spatially Combined Laser Beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS by Kum Leong Lee September...MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Kum Leong Lee 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND...BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF SPATIALLY COMBINED LASER BEAMS Kum Leong Lee

  20. Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Oceanic & Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface

  1. Our shared atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our atmosphere is a precious and fascinating resource, providing air to breath, shielding us from harmful ultraviolet radiation (UV), and maintaining a comfortable climate. Since the industrial revolution, people have significantly altered the composition of the atmosphere throu...

  2. Complex microcirculation patterns detected by confocal indocyanine green angiography predict time to growth of small choroidal melanocytic tumors: MuSIC Report II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Arthur J; Freeman, William R; Schaller, Ulrich C; Kampik, Anselm; Folberg, Robert

    2002-12-01

    Multiple independent laboratories have confirmed the histologic observation that some tumor microcirculation patterns (MCPs) in uveal melanomas are associated strongly with death resulting from metastatic disease. Because these patterns are imageable with confocal indocyanine green angiography (ICG), we designed a prospective study to evaluate whether these angiographically detectable MCPs predict time to tumor growth. Observational case series, prospective, non-randomized. Ninety-eight patients with unilateral, small, choroidal melanocytic tumors. The following information and tumor characteristics were recorded for each patient: demographic parameters, best-corrected visual acuity, intraocular pressure, related visual symptoms, location and dimension of tumor, pigmentation, orange pigment, drusen, tumor-associated hemorrhage, subretinal fluid, and confocal ICG angiographically determined microcirculation patterns-silent (avascularity), normal (preexisting normal choroidal vessels within the tumor), straight vessels, parallel without and with cross-linking, arcs without and with branching, loops, and networks. Time to growth of the tumor, with growth defined as an increase in the maximal apical tumor height of 0.5 mm measured by standardized A-scan ultrasonography, photographic documentation of an increase of the largest basal diameter of at least 1.5 mm, advancement of one tumor border of at least 0.75 mm, or a combination thereof. Twenty-eight of the 98 tumors in this study (29%) met the predetermined criteria for tumor growth. The median time to growth was 127 days (range, 51-625 days). The following tumor characteristics were significantly associated with time to tumor growth: flashes (P = 0.0224), orange pigment (P = 0.012), subretinal fluid (P < 0.001), maximum basal tumor diameter at initial examination (P = 0.015), maximum apical tumor height (P < 0.001), parallel with cross-linking MCP (P < 0.001), arcs with branching MCP (P = 0.006), loops (P < 0

  3. Me, Myself, and Money II: Relative Deprivation Predicts Disordered Gambling Severity via Delay Discounting, Especially Among Gamblers Who Have a Financially Focused Self-Concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabri, Nassim; Will Shead, N; Wohl, Michael J A

    2017-12-01

    In the current research, we examined whether the known link between relative deprivation and disordered gambling (via delay discounting; i.e., preferences for immediate smaller rewards relative to delayed larger rewards) is moderated by the extent to which gamblers have a financially focused self-concept. Specifically, we hypothesized that delay discounting would be a strong predictor of disordered gambling among those who base their self-worth on their financial success. To test this moderated-mediation model, a community sample of gamblers (N = 239) completed measures that assessed relative deprivation, delay discounting, financially focused self-concept, and disordered gambling severity. As predicted, people who felt more relative deprivation reported more severe symptoms of disordered gambling and this association was mediated by delay discounting. Importantly, this mediated relationship was moderated by the extent to which participants' self-concept was focused on financial success. Among participants whose self-concept was high in financial focus, greater delay discounting (stemming from relative deprivation) was a strong predictor of disordered gambling. Among people whose self-concept was low in financial focus, delay discounting (stemming from relative deprivation) was a weak predictor of disordered gambling. Thus, the magnitude of the indirect effect of relative deprivation on disordered gambling severity was larger among people with a more financially focused self-concept-an effect mediated by delay discounting. These findings suggest that targeting gamblers' financial focus in prevention and treatment interventions may be instrumental in curtailing the development and maintenance of disordered gambling.

  4. Atmospheric refraction : a history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehn, WH; van der Werf, S

    2005-01-01

    We trace the history of atmospheric refraction from the ancient Greeks up to the time of Kepler. The concept that the atmosphere could refract light entered Western science in the second century B.C. Ptolemy, 300 years later, produced the first clearly defined atmospheric model, containing air of

  5. Effect of gastric pH on the pharmacokinetics of a BCS class II compound in dogs: utilization of an artificial stomach and duodenum dissolution model and GastroPlus,™ simulations to predict absorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattachar, Shobha N; Perkins, Everett J; Tan, Jeffrey S; Burns, Lee J

    2011-11-01

    Dogs are one of the most commonly used non-rodent species in toxicology studies and are known to have basal stomach pH ranging from 2 to 7 in the fasted state. Thus absorption and resulting plasma exposure of weakly basic compounds administered as crystalline suspensions to dogs are often variable. LY2157299 is a potent and selective transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta receptor type 1 kinase (TGF-βRI) inhibitor that displayed variable absorption in early dog studies. This molecule is a weakly basic Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS)Class II compound, and depends on the rate and extent of dissolution to drive oral absorption. An artificial stomach and duodenum (ASD) dissolution model was utilized to evaluate potential effect of gastric pH on the absorption of suspension and buffered solution formulations. GastroPlus™ was also employed to predict the magnitude of gastric pH changes on LY2157299 absorption. The ASD experiments demonstrated that administration of a buffered acidic solution could improve the potential for absorption by normalizing gastric pH and enabling supersaturation in the duodenum. GastroPlus™ modeling suggested that direct modulation of gastric pH could lead to marked changes in bioavailability. Pharmacokinetic experiments were conducted in dogs to evaluate the effect of gastric pH modification on plasma exposure. The data were qualitatively consistent with the predictions. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  6. Results from SAGE II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nico, J.S.

    1994-01-01

    The Russian-American Gallium solar neutrino Experiment (SAGE) began the second phase of operation (SAGE II) in September of 1992. Monthly measurements of the integral flux of solar neutrinos have been made with 55 tonnes of gallium. The K-peak results of the first nine runs of SAGE II give a capture rate of 66 -13 +18 (stat) -7 +5 (sys) SNU. Combined with the SAGE I result of 73 -16 +18 (stat) -7 5 (sys) SNU, the capture rate is 69 -11 +11 (stat) -7 +5 (sys) SNU. This represents only 52%--56% of the capture rate predicted by different Standard Solar Models

  7. Evaluation of the Apache II and the oncologic history, as indicative predictions of mortality in the unit of intensive care of the INC September 1996 -December 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camargo, David O; Gomez, Clara; Martinez, Teresa

    1999-01-01

    They are multiple the indexes of severity that have been carried out to value the predict and the quality of a patient's life, especially when this it enters to the unit of intensive care (UIC); however, the oncologic patient presents particularities in their mobility, that it supposes a different behavior in the results of the Indexes. Presently work is compared the Apache scale and the oncologic history like morbid mortality as predictors in the UCI. 207 patients were included that entered the UCI between September of 1996 and December of 1997. It was a mortality of 29%, the stay of most of this group of patient smaller than 24 hours or bigger than 8 days. To the entrance, 50% of the patients presented superior averages at 15 in the Apache Scale and at the 48 hours, alone 30.4% continued with this value. The patients with hematologic neoplasia presented superior average at 15 in 87%, with a mortality of 63.3% with average between 15 and 24 to the entrance, the risk of dying was 9.8 times but that with inferior average. In the hematologic patient, the risk of dying was 5.7 times but regarding the solid tumors. The system but altered it was the breathing one, with an increase in the risk of dying from 2,8 times for each increment utility in the scale. Contrary to described in the literature, the oncologic diagnoses and the neoplasia statistic they didn't influence in the mortality of the patients

  8. Armazenamento de pitangas sob atmosfera modificada e refrigeração: II - qualidade e conservação pós-colheita Storage of Suriname cherry under modified atmosphere and refrigeration: quality and postharvest conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Ferreira dos Santos

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o efeito de atmosfera modificada (AM na conservação pós-colheita de pitangas colhidas nos estádios de maturação e início da pigmentação (IP, vermelho-alaranjado (VA e vermelho predominante (VP e armazenadas a 10 e a 14 ºC (90 ± 1%UR e condições ambientes (23± 2 ºC e 85 ± 2%UR. O uso de AM associada à refrigeração resultou em menores perdas de massa, incidência de fungo e enrugamento. A AM também permitiu um aumento de quatro dias na vida útil pós-colheita, mantendo a qualidade acima do limite de aceitação durante oito dias, para pitangas do estádio VA mantidas sob refrigeração. Em conjunto, pitangas colhidas no estádio de maturação vermelho-alaranjado apresentaram melhor potencial de armazenamento, quando mantidas sob atmosfera modificada a 10 ºC.The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of modified atmosphere (MA on postharvest conservation of Suriname cherry harvested in the maturity stages: pigment initiation (PI, red-orangish (RO and predominant red (PR, and stored at 10, 14 ºC (90 ± 1% RH, and room temperature (23± 2 ºC and 85 ± 2% RH. The use of MA associated with refrigeration resulted in lower mass loss, fungi incidence, and fruit shrinkage. The MA also allowed a four-day increase in postharvest life, maintaining the general quality above acceptance limit during eight days, for Suriname cherries of RO maturity stage, kept under refrigeration. Collectively, Suriname cherries harvested at the maturity stage red-orangish presented the best storage potential, when kept under modified atmosphere at 10 ºC.

  9. Atmospheric Habitable Zones in Y Dwarf Atmospheres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yates, Jack S.; Palmer, Paul I. [School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Biller, Beth; Cockell, Charles S., E-mail: j.s.yates@ed.ac.uk [Centre for Exoplanet Science, University of Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2017-02-20

    We use a simple organism lifecycle model to explore the viability of an atmospheric habitable zone (AHZ), with temperatures that could support Earth-centric life, which sits above an environment that does not support life. To illustrate our model, we use a cool Y dwarf atmosphere, such as WISE J085510.83–0714442.5, whose 4.5–5.2 μ m spectrum shows absorption features consistent with water vapor and clouds. We allow organisms to adapt to their atmospheric environment (described by temperature, convection, and gravity) by adopting different growth strategies that maximize their chance of survival and proliferation. We assume a constant upward vertical velocity through the AHZ. We found that the organism growth strategy is most sensitive to the magnitude of the atmospheric convection. Stronger convection supports the evolution of more massive organisms. For a purely radiative environment, we find that evolved organisms have a mass that is an order of magnitude smaller than terrestrial microbes, thereby defining a dynamical constraint on the dimensions of life that an AHZ can support. Based on a previously defined statistical approach, we infer that there are of the order of 10{sup 9} cool Y brown dwarfs in the Milky Way, and likely a few tens of these objects are within 10 pc from Earth. Our work also has implications for exploring life in the atmospheres of temperate gas giants. Consideration of the habitable volumes in planetary atmospheres significantly increases the volume of habitable space in the galaxy.

  10. The role of copper and oxalate in the redox cycling of iron in atmospheric waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlak, David L.; Hoigné, Jürg

    During daytime, the redox cycling of dissolved iron compounds in atmospheric waters, and the related in-cloud transformations of photooxidants, are affected by reactions of Fe and Cu with hydroperoxy (HO 2) and superoxide (O 2-) radicals and the photoreduction of Fe(III)-oxalato complexes. We have investigated several of the important chemical reactions in this redox cycle, through laboratory simulation of the system, using γ-radiation to produce HO 2/O 2-. At concentrations comparable to those measured in atmospheric waters, the redox cycling of Fe was dramatically affected by the presence of oxalate and trace concentrations of Cu. At concentrations more than a hundred times lower than Fe, Cu consumed most of the HO 2/O 2-, and cycled between the Cu(II) and Cu(I) forms. Cu + reacted with FeOH 2+ to produce Fe(II) and Cu(II), with a second order rate constant of approximately 3 × 10 7 M -1s -1. The presence of oxalate resulted in the formation of Fe(III)-oxalato complexes that were essentially unreactive with HO 2/O 2-. Only at high oxalate concentrations was the Fe(II)C 2O 4 complex also formed, and it reacted relatively rapidly with hydrogen peroxide ( k = (3.1 ± 0.6) × 10 4 M -1s -1). Simulations incorporating measurements for other redox mechanisms, including oxidation by ozone, indicate that, during daytime, Fe should be found mostly in the ferrous oxidation state, and that reactions of FeOH 2+ with Cu(I) and HO 2/O 2-, and to a lesser degree, the photolysis of Fe(III)-oxalato complexes, are important mechanisms of Fe reduction in atmospheric waters. The catalytic effect of Cu(II)/Cu(I) and Fe(III)/Fe(II) should also significantly increase the sink function of the atmospheric liquid phase for HO 2 present in a cloud. A simple kinetic model for the reactions of Fe, Cu and HO 2/O 2-, accurately predicted the changes in Fe oxidation states that occurred when authentic fogwater samples were exposed to HO 2/O 2-.

  11. Comparison between two-dimensional and three-dimensional quantitative coronary angiography for the prediction of functional severity in true bifurcation lesions: Insights from the randomized DK-CRUSH II, III, and IV trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yao-Jun; Zhu, Hao; Shi, Shun-Yi; Muramatsu, Takashi; Pan, Dao-Rong; Ye, Fei; Zhang, Jun-Jie; Tian, Nai-Liang; Bourantas, Christos V; Chen, Shao-Liang

    2016-03-01

    This study investigated the diagnostic accuracy of three-dimensional quantitative coronary angiography (3D-QCA) compared with conventional 2D-QCA for predicting functional severity assessed by fractional flow reserve (FFR) for true bifurcation lesions. Based on pooled data from the randomized DK-CRUSH II, III, and IV trials, we evaluated the patients with true bifurcation lesions who underwent coronary angiography together with functional evaluations using FFR in both the main vessel and the side branch. Off-line 2D- and 3D-QCA analyses were conducted using dedicated bifurcation QCA analysis software. Measurements of minimum lumen diameter (MLD), percentage diameter stenosis (% DS), and minimum lumen area (MLA) were compared between 2D- and 3D-QCA, and we evaluated their predictive values of functionally significant FFR. Ninety patients were eligible for enrollment in the present study. In the main vessel, MLA measured by 3D-QCA was the most accurate predictor of FFR <0.75 (C statistic 0.85, P < 0.001), while MLD measured by 2D-QCA was a similarly accurate predictor (C statistic 0.85, P < 0.001). In the side branch, the best metrics for predicting FFR <0.75 were % DS measured by 2D-QCA with a C statistic value of 0.91 (P < 0.001) and MLA measured by 3D-QCA with a C statistic value of 0.81 (P < 0.001). However, both 2D- and 3D-QCA metrics exhibited low accuracies for predicting FFR <0.75 in intermediate bifurcation lesions. 3D-QCA analysis for true bifurcation lesions did not improve the predictive accuracy of functionally significant FFR compared with 2D-QCA analysis. In lesions with intermediate stenosis, the diagnostic performance of both 2D- and 3D-QCA-derived measurements in differentiating functional severity is limited. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Modified FOLFOX-6 chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer: Results of phase II study and comprehensive analysis of polymorphisms as a predictive and prognostic marker

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Se-Hoon

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of infusional 5-fluorouracil (5-FU, folinic acid and oxaliplatin (modified FOLFOX-6 in patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC, as first-line palliative combination chemotherapy. We also analyzed the predictive or prognostic value of germline polymorphisms of candidate genes associated with 5-FU and oxaliplatin. Methods Seventy-three patients were administered a 2 hour infusion of oxaliplatin (100 mg/m2 and folinic acid (100 mg/m2 followed by a 46 hour continuous infusion of 5-FU (2,400 mg/m2. Genomic DNA from the patients' peripheral blood mononuclear cells was extracted. Ten polymorphisms within five genes were investigated including TS, GSTP, ERCC, XPD and XRCC. Results The overall response rate (RR was 43.8%. Median time to progression (TTP and overall survival (OS were 6.0 months and 12.6 months, respectively. Toxicities were generally tolerable and manageable. The RR was significantly higher in patients with a 6-bp deletion homozygote (-6 bp/-6 bp in TS-3'UTR (55.0% vs. 30.3% in +6 bp/+6 bp or +6 bp/-6 bp, p = 0.034, and C/A or A/A in XPD156 (52.0% vs. 26.1% in C/C, p = 0.038. The -6 bp/-6 bp in TS-3'UTR was significantly associated with a prolonged TTP and OS. In a multivariate analysis, the 6-bp deletion in TS-3'UTR was identified as an independent prognostic marker of TTP (hazard ratio = 0.561, p = 0.032. Conclusion Modified FOLFOX-6 chemotherapy appears to be active and well tolerated as first line chemotherapy in AGC patients. The 6-bp deletion in TS-3'UTR might be a candidate to select patients who are likely to benefit from 5-FU based modified FOLFOX-6 in future large scale trial.

  13. Hydroclimatic variability and predictability: a survey of recent research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. D. Koster

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent research in large-scale hydroclimatic variability is surveyed, focusing on five topics: (i variability in general, (ii droughts, (iii floods, (iv land–atmosphere coupling, and (v hydroclimatic prediction. Each surveyed topic is supplemented by illustrative examples of recent research, as presented at a 2016 symposium honoring the career of Professor Eric Wood. Taken together, the recent literature and the illustrative examples clearly show that current research into hydroclimatic variability is strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.

  14. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    In order to understand energy's role in anthropogenic global climate change, significant reliance is being placed on General Circulation Models (GCMs). A major goal is to foster the development of GCMs capable of predicting the timing and magnitude of greenhouse gas-induced global warming and the regional effects of such warming. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program will contribute to the Department of Energy goal by improving the treatment of cloud radiative forcing and feedbacks in GCMs. Two issues will be addressed: the radiation budget and its spectral dependence and the radiative and other properties of clouds. The experimental objective of the ARM Program is to characterize empirically the radiative processes in the Earth's atmosphere with improved resolution and accuracy. A key to this characterization is the effective treatment of cloud formation and cloud properties in GCMs. Through this characterization of radiative properties, it will be possible to understand both the forcing and feedback effects. 19 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  15. Model Stellar Atmospheres and Real Stellar Atmospheres and Status of the ATLAS12 Opacity Sampling Program and of New Programs for Rosseland and for Distribution Function Opacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurucz, Robert L.

    1996-01-01

    I discuss errors in theory and in interpreting observations that are produced by the failure to consider resolution in space, time, and energy. I discuss convection in stellar model atmospheres and in stars. Large errors in abundances are possible such as the factor of ten error in the Li abundance for extreme Population II stars. Finally I discuss the variation of microturbulent velocity with depth, effective temperature, gravity, and abundance. These variations must be dealt with in computing models and grids and in any type of photometric calibration. I have also developed a new opacity-sampling version of my model atmosphere program called ATLAS12. It recognizes more than 1000 atomic and molecular species, each in up to 10 isotopic forms. It can treat all ions of the elements up through Zn and the first 5 ions of heavier elements up through Es. The elemental and isotopic abundances are treated as variables with depth. The fluxes predicted by ATLAS12 are not accurate in intermediate or narrow bandpass intervals because the sample size is too small. A special stripped version of the spectrum synthesis program SYNTHE is used to generate the surface flux for the converged model using the line data on CD-ROMs 1 and 15. ATLAS12 can be used to produce improved models for Am and Ap stars. It should be very useful for investigating diffusion effects in atmospheres. It can be used to model exciting stars for H II regions with abundances consistent with those of the H II region. These programs and line files will be distributed on CD-ROMs.

  16. Experimental study of the atmospheric neutrino flux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirata, K.S.; Kajita, T.; Koshiba, M.

    1988-01-01

    We have observed 277 fully contained events in the KAMIOKANDE detector. The number of electron-like single prong events is in good agreement with the predictions of a Monte Carlo calculation based on atmospheric neutrino interactions in the detector. On the other hand, the number of muon-like single prong events is 59 ± 7 %(statistical error) of the predicted number of the Monte Carlo calculation. We are unable to explain the data as the result of systematic detector effects or uncertainties in the atmospheric neutrino fluxes. (author)

  17. Prediction of the moments in advection-diffusion lattice Boltzmann method. II. Attenuation of the boundary layers via double-Λ bounce-back flux scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginzburg, Irina

    2017-01-01

    Impact of the unphysical tangential advective-diffusion constraint of the bounce-back (BB) reflection on the impermeable solid surface is examined for the first four moments of concentration. Despite the number of recent improvements for the Neumann condition in the lattice Boltzmann method-advection-diffusion equation, the BB rule remains the only known local mass-conserving no-flux condition suitable for staircase porous geometry. We examine the closure relation of the BB rule in straight channel and cylindrical capillary analytically, and show that it excites the Knudsen-type boundary layers in the nonequilibrium solution for full-weight equilibrium stencil. Although the d2Q5 and d3Q7 coordinate schemes are sufficient for the modeling of isotropic diffusion, the full-weight stencils are appealing for their advanced stability, isotropy, anisotropy and anti-numerical-diffusion ability. The boundary layers are not covered by the Chapman-Enskog expansion around the expected equilibrium, but they accommodate the Chapman-Enskog expansion in the bulk with the closure relation of the bounce-back rule. We show that the induced boundary layers introduce first-order errors in two primary transport properties, namely, mean velocity (first moment) and molecular diffusion coefficient (second moment). As a side effect, the Taylor-dispersion coefficient (second moment), skewness (third moment), and kurtosis (fourth moment) deviate from their physical values and predictions of the fourth-order Chapman-Enskog analysis, even though the kurtosis error in pure diffusion does not depend on grid resolution. In two- and three-dimensional grid-aligned channels and open-tubular conduits, the errors of velocity and diffusion are proportional to the diagonal weight values of the corresponding equilibrium terms. The d2Q5 and d3Q7 schemes do not suffer from this deficiency in grid-aligned geometries but they cannot avoid it if the boundaries are not parallel to the coordinate lines. In order

  18. An overview of the rangelands atmosphere hydrosphere biosphere interaction study experiment in northeastern Asia (RAISE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugita, Michiaki; Asanuma, Jun; Tsujimura, Maki; Mariko, Shigeru; Lu, Minjiao; Kimura, Fujio; Azzaya, Dolgorsuren; Adyasuren, Tsokhio

    2007-01-01

    SummaryIntensive observations, analysis and modeling within the framework of the rangelands atmosphere-hydrosphere-biosphere interaction study experiment in northeastern Asia (RAISE) project, have allowed investigations into the hydrologic cycle in the ecotone of forest-steppe, and its relation to atmosphere and ecosystem in the eastern part of Mongolia. In this region, changes in the climate have been reported and a market oriented economy was introduced recently, but their impact on the natural environment is still not well understood. In this RAISE special issue, the outcome is presented of the studies carried out by six groups within RAISE, namely: (1) Land-atmosphere interaction analysis, (2) ecosystem analysis and modeling, (3) hydrologic cycle analysis, (4) climatic modeling, (5) hydrologic modeling, and (6) integration. The results are organized in five relevant categories comprising (i) hydrologic cycle including precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, (ii) hydrologic cycle and ecosystem, (iii) surface-atmosphere interaction, (iv) effect of grazing activities on soils, plant ecosystem and surface fluxes, and (v) future prediction. Comparison with studies on rangelands in other parts of the world, and some future directions of studies still needed in this region are also summarized.

  19. Atmospheric data over a solar cycle: no connection between galactic cosmic rays and new particle formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kulmala

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol particles affect the Earth's radiative balance by directly scattering and absorbing solar radiation and, indirectly, through their activation into cloud droplets. Both effects are known with considerable uncertainty only, and translate into even bigger uncertainties in future climate predictions. More than a decade ago, variations in galactic cosmic rays were suggested to closely correlate with variations in atmospheric cloud cover and therefore constitute a driving force behind aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Later, the enhancement of atmospheric aerosol particle formation by ions generated from cosmic rays was proposed as a physical mechanism explaining this correlation. Here, we report unique observations on atmospheric aerosol formation based on measurements at the SMEAR II station, Finland, over a solar cycle (years 1996–2008 that shed new light on these presumed relationships. Our analysis shows that none of the quantities related to aerosol formation correlates with the cosmic ray-induced ionisation intensity (CRII. We also examined the contribution of ions to new particle formation on the basis of novel ground-based and airborne observations. A consistent result is that ion-induced formation contributes typically significantly less than 10% to the number of new particles, which would explain the missing correlation between CRII and aerosol formation. Our main conclusion is that galactic cosmic rays appear to play a minor role for atmospheric aerosol formation events, and so for the connected aerosol-climate effects as well.

  20. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    In order to understand energy's role in anthropogenic global climate change, significant reliance is being placed on General Circulation Models (GCMs). A major goal of the Department is to foster the development of GCMs capable of predicting the timing and magnitude of greenhouse gas-induced global warming and the regional effects of such warming. DOE research has revealed that cloud radiative feedback is the single most important effect determining the magnitude of possible climate responses to human activity. However, cloud radiative forcing and feedbacks are not understood at the levels needed for reliable climate prediction. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program will contribute to the DOE goal by improving the treatment of cloud radiative forcing and feedbacks in GCMs. Two issues will be addressed: the radiation budget and its spectral dependence and the radiative and other properties of clouds. Understanding cloud properties and how to predict them is critical because cloud properties may very well change as climate changes. The experimental objective of the ARM Program is to characterize empirically the radiative processes in the Earth's atmosphere with improved resolution and accuracy. A key to this characterization is the effective treatment of cloud formation and cloud properties in GCMs. Through this characterization of radiative properties, it will be possible to understand both the forcing and feedback effects. GCM modelers will then be able to better identify the best approaches to improved parameterizations of radiative transfer effects. This is expected to greatly improve the accuracy of long-term, GCM predictions and the efficacy of those predictions at the important regional scale, as the research community and DOE attempt to understand the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the Earth's climate. 153 refs., 24 figs., 6 tabs