Fractional-moment Capital Asset Pricing model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Hui; Wu Min; Wang Xiaotian
2009-01-01
In this paper, we introduce the definition of the 'α-covariance' and present the fractional-moment versions of Capital Asset Pricing Model,which can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be stable Levy (or Student-t) distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. Furthermore, if asset returns are truly governed by the infinite-variance stable Levy distributions, life is fundamentally riskier than in a purely Gaussian world. Sudden price movements like the worldwide security market crash in 2008 turn into real-world possibilities.
Improving the asset pricing ability of the Consumption-Capital Asset Pricing Model?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng
This paper compares the asset pricing ability of the traditional consumption-based capital asset pricing model to models from two strands of literature attempting to improve on the poor empirical results of the C-CAPM. One strand is based on the intertemporal asset pricing model of Campbell (1993...... able to price assets conditionally as suggested by Cochrane (1996) and Lettau and Ludvigson (2001b). The unconditional C-CAPM is rewritten as a scaled factor model using the approximate log consumptionwealth ratio cay, developed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a), as scaling variable. The models...... and composite. Thus, there is no unambiguous solution to the pricing ability problems of the C-CAPM. Models from both the alternative literature strands are found to outperform the traditional C-CAPM on average pricing errors. However, when weighting pricing errors by the full variance-covariance matrix...
Assessing Asset Pricing Models Using Revealed Preference
Jonathan B. Berk; Jules H. van Binsbergen
2014-01-01
We propose a new method of testing asset pricing models that relies on using quantities rather than prices or returns. We use the capital flows into and out of mutual funds to infer which risk model investors use. We derive a simple test statistic that allows us to infer, from a set of candidate models, the model that is closest to the model that investors use in making their capital allocation decisions. Using this methodology, we find that of the models most commonly used in the literature,...
Some Divergence Properties of Asset Price Models
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Wolfgang Stummer
2001-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract: We consider asset price processes Xt which are weak solutions of one-dimensional stochastic differential equations of the form (equation (2 Such price models can be interpreted as non-lognormally-distributed generalizations of the geometric Brownian motion. We study properties of the IÃŽÂ±-divergence between the law of the solution Xt and the corresponding drift-less measure (the special case ÃŽÂ±=1 is the relative entropy. This will be applied to some context in statistical information theory as well as to arbitrage theory and contingent claim valuation. For instance, the seminal option pricing theorems of Black-Scholes and Merton appear as a special case.
The Q theory of investment, the capital asset pricing model, and asset valuation: a synthesis.
McDonald, John F
2004-05-01
The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications of the new method are provided.
Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets
Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh
1988-01-01
A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...
Creator of the capital asset pricing model
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Pantelić Svetlana
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Harry M. Markowite, Merton H. Miller and William F. Sharpe were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 1990, for their pioneering work in the theory of financial economics. Harry Markowite gave the most significant contribution in portfolio selection, William Sharpe in establishing the equilibrium theory of capital asset pricing (CAPM, and Merton Miller in corporate finance. Their work revolutionized finance through the introduction and implementation of quantitative methods in financial analysis. Sharpe was born in 1934 in Boston, Massachusetts. He received the Bachelor of Arts degree in 1955, the Master of Arts degree in 1956, and PhD degree in Economics in 1961 at the UCLA. In his doctoral dissertation he explored a series of aspects of portfolio analysis, based on a model proposed by Markowite. He spent his working career as a lecturer and professor, taking active part in numerous research projects. He authored many scientific papers and books, having won several awards and being a member of many institutions. He established his own financial consulting firm in 1989.
Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies
W.A. de Groot (Wilma)
2017-01-01
markdownabstractOne of the most important challenges in the field of asset pricing is to understand anomalies: empirical patterns in asset returns that cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models. Currently, there is no consensus in the academic literature on the underlying causes of
Asset Pricing - A Brief Review
Li, Minqiang
2010-01-01
I first introduce the early-stage and modern classical asset pricing and portfolio theories. These include: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM), the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), and some other important modern concepts and techniques. Finally, I discuss the most recent development during the last decade and the outlook in the field of asset pricing.
Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices
Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah
2013-09-01
The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.
Self-consistent asset pricing models
Malevergne, Y.; Sornette, D.
2007-08-01
We discuss the foundations of factor or regression models in the light of the self-consistency condition that the market portfolio (and more generally the risk factors) is (are) constituted of the assets whose returns it is (they are) supposed to explain. As already reported in several articles, self-consistency implies correlations between the return disturbances. As a consequence, the alphas and betas of the factor model are unobservable. Self-consistency leads to renormalized betas with zero effective alphas, which are observable with standard OLS regressions. When the conditions derived from internal consistency are not met, the model is necessarily incomplete, which means that some sources of risk cannot be replicated (or hedged) by a portfolio of stocks traded on the market, even for infinite economies. Analytical derivations and numerical simulations show that, for arbitrary choices of the proxy which are different from the true market portfolio, a modified linear regression holds with a non-zero value αi at the origin between an asset i's return and the proxy's return. Self-consistency also introduces “orthogonality” and “normality” conditions linking the betas, alphas (as well as the residuals) and the weights of the proxy portfolio. Two diagnostics based on these orthogonality and normality conditions are implemented on a basket of 323 assets which have been components of the S&P500 in the period from January 1990 to February 2005. These two diagnostics show interesting departures from dynamical self-consistency starting about 2 years before the end of the Internet bubble. Assuming that the CAPM holds with the self-consistency condition, the OLS method automatically obeys the resulting orthogonality and normality conditions and therefore provides a simple way to self-consistently assess the parameters of the model by using proxy portfolios made only of the assets which are used in the CAPM regressions. Finally, the factor decomposition with the
Nazliben, Kamil
2015-01-01
The dissertation consists of three chapters that represent separate papers in the area of asset pricing. The ﬁrst chapter studies investors optimal asset allocation problem in which mean reversion in stock prices is captured by explicitly modeling transitory and permanent shocks. The second chapter
Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles Revisited
Jan Werner
2012-01-01
Price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset's fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles when either one of ...
The asset pricing model of musharakah factors
Simon, Shahril; Omar, Mohd; Lazam, Norazliani Md
2015-02-01
The existing three-factor model developed by Fama and French for conventional investment was formulated based on risk-free rates element in which contradict with Shariah principles. We note that the underlying principles that govern Shariah investment were mutual risk and profit sharing between parties, the assurance of fairness for all and that transactions were based on an underlying asset. In addition, the three-factor model did not exclude stock that was not permissible by Shariah such as financial services based on riba (interest), gambling operator, manufacture or sale of non-halal products or related products and other activities deemed non-permissible according to Shariah. Our approach to construct the factor model for Shariah investment was based on the basic tenets of musharakah in tabulating the factors. We start by noting that Islamic stocks with similar characteristics should have similar returns and risks. This similarity between Islamic stocks was defined by the similarity of musharakah attributes such as business, management, profitability and capital. These attributes define factor exposures (or betas) to factors. The main takeaways were that musharakah attributes we chose had explain stock returns well in cross section and were significant in different market environments. The management factor seemed to be responsible for the general dynamics of the explanatory power.
Modelling of capital asset pricing by considering the lagged effects
Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Bon, A. Talib bin; Supian, S.
2017-01-01
In this paper the problem of modelling the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the effect of the lagged is discussed. It is assumed that asset returns are analysed influenced by the market return and the return of risk-free assets. To analyse the relationship between asset returns, the market return, and the return of risk-free assets, it is conducted by using a regression equation of CAPM, and regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM. Associated with the regression equation lagged CAPM distributed, this paper also developed a regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM. Results of development show that the regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM has advantages, namely simple as it only requires three parameters, compared with regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM.
Consumption-based macroeconomic models of asset pricing theory
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Đorđević Marija
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The family of consumptionbased asset pricing models yields a stochastic discount factor proportional to the marginal rate of intertemporal substitution of consumption. In examining the empirical performance of this class of models, several puzzles are discovered. In this literature review we present the canonical model, the corresponding empirical tests, and different extensions to this model that propose a resolution of these puzzles.
PEMILIHAN SAHAM YANG OPTIMAL MENGGUNAKAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM
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Dioda Ardi Wibisono
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Optimal portfolio is the basis for investors to invest in stock. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM is a method to determine the value of the risk and return of a company stock. This research uses a secondary data from the closing price of the monthly stock price (monthly closing price, Stock Price Index (SPI, and the monthly SBI rate. The samples of this research are 41 stocks in LQ45 February-July 2015 on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (ISE. The study period is during 5 year from October 2010 - October 2015. The result of analysis shows that the optimal portfolio consists of 18 companies. The average return of the optimal portfolio is higher than the average risk-free return (SBI rate and the average market return. This proves that investing in stocks is more profitable than a risk-free investment. � Keywords: Stock, CAPM, return, risk�
The Earnings/Price Risk Factor in Capital Asset Pricing Models
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Rafael Falcão Noda
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This article integrates the ideas from two major lines of research on cost of equity and asset pricing: multi-factor models and ex ante accounting models. The earnings/price ratio is used as a proxy for the ex ante cost of equity, in order to explain realized returns of Brazilian companies within the period from 1995 to 2013. The initial finding was that stocks with high (low earnings/price ratios have higher (lower risk-adjusted realized returns, already controlled by the capital asset pricing model's beta. The results show that selecting stocks based on high earnings/price ratios has led to significantly higher risk-adjusted returns in the Brazilian market, with average abnormal returns close to 1.3% per month. We design asset pricing models including an earnings/price risk factor, i.e. high earnings minus low earnings, based on the Fama and French three-factor model. We conclude that such a risk factor is significant to explain returns on portfolios, even when controlled by size and market/book ratios. Models including the high earnings minus low earnings risk factor were better to explain stock returns in Brazil when compared to the capital asset pricing model and to the Fama and French three-factor model, having the lowest number of significant intercepts. These findings may be due to the impact of historically high inflation rates, which reduce the information content of book values, thus making the models based on earnings/price ratios better than those based on market/book ratios. Such results are different from those obtained in more developed markets and the superiority of the earnings/price ratio for asset pricing may also exist in other emerging markets.
Brock, W.A.; Hommes, C.H.
2001-01-01
This paper discusses dynamic evolutionary multi-agent systems, as introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997). In particular the heterogeneous agent dynamic asset pricing model of Brock and Hommes (1998) is extended by introducing derivative securities by means of price contingent contracts. Numerical
The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: a unification.
Ali Khan, M; Sun, Y
1997-04-15
We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset's return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen-Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting.
Asset prices and priceless assets
Penasse, J.N.G.
2014-01-01
The doctoral thesis studies several aspects of asset returns dynamics. The first three chapters focus on returns in the fine art market. The first chapter provides evidence for the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices that induces short-term return predictability. The article has
The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: A unification
Khan, M. Ali; Sun, Yeneng
1997-01-01
We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset’s return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen–Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting. PMID:11038614
Pricing Volatility Referenced Assets
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Alan De Genaro Dario
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Volatility swaps are contingent claims on future realized volatility. Variance swaps are similar instruments on future realized variance, the square of future realized volatility. Unlike a plain vanilla option, whose volatility exposure is contaminated by its asset price dependence, volatility and variance swaps provide a pure exposure to volatility alone. This article discusses the risk-neutral valuation of volatility and variance swaps based on the framework outlined in the Heston (1993 stochastic volatility model. Additionally, the Heston (1993 model is calibrated for foreign currency options traded at BMF and its parameters are used to price swaps on volatility and variance of the BRL / USD exchange rate.
A Robust Rational Route to in a Simple Asset Pricing Model
Hommes, C.H.; Huang, H.; Wang, D.
2002-01-01
We investigate asset pricing dynamics in an adaptive evolutionary asset pricing model with fundamentalists, trend followers and a market maker. Agents can choose between a fundamentalist strategy at positive information cost or choose a trend following strategy for free. Price adjustment is proportional to the excess demand in the asset market. Agents asynchronously update their strategy according to realized net profits in the recent past. As agents become more sensitive to differences in st...
Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model
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Zdeněk Konečný
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.
The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method
Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji
2017-12-01
Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.
Neoclassical and Behavioural Asset Pricing Models : The Case of Sri Lanka
Perera, Shenali Anne
2013-01-01
This study aims to provide a better understanding of the Sri Lankan stock market in terms of asset pricing models. In order to achieve this goal this research evaluates the Fama and French three-factor model and a behavioural asset pricing model to investigate which framework is better suited for security valuation in Sri Lanka. Accordingly findings reveal that small stocks with low book-to-market equity generate high realized returns. But results indicate that superior returns on these stock...
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis
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Saban Celik
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to give a comprehensive theoretical review devoted to asset pricing models by emphasizing static and dynamic versions in the line with their empirical investigations. A considerable amount of financial economics literature devoted to the concept of asset pricing and their implications. The main task of asset pricing model can be seen as the way to evaluate the present value of the pay offs or cash flows discounted for risk and time lags. The difficulty coming from discounting process is that the relevant factors that affect the pay offs vary through the time whereas the theoretical framework is still useful to incorporate the changing factors into an asset pricing models. This paper fills the gap in literature by giving a comprehensive review of the models and evaluating the historical stream of empirical investigations in the form of structural empirical review.
Testing multi-factor asset pricing models in the Visegrad countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Morgese Borys, Magdalena
2011-01-01
Roč. 61, č. 2 (2011), s. 118-139 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : capital asset pricing model * macroeconomic factor models * asset pricing Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2011 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1208
Applicability of Investment and Profitability Effects in Asset Pricing Models
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Márcio André Veras Machado
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This study aims to investigate whether investment and profitability are priced and if they partially explain the variations of stock returns in the Brazilian stock market, according to the Fama and French’s (2015 five-factor model. By using time series and cross-section regression, we found that book-to-market, momentum and liquidity are associated with stock returns whereas investment and profitability were not significant. We also found that there is no investment premium in Brazil. Therefore, motivated by the importance of B/M, momentum and liquidity to the Brazilian stock market, as well as by the poor performance of profitability and investment, we document that Keene and Peterson’s (2007 five-factor model is superior to all other models, especially the five-factor model by Fama and French (2015.
Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets
Longstaff, Francis A
2005-01-01
Many important classes of assets are illiquid in the sense that they cannot always be traded immediately. Thus, a portfolio position in these types of illiquid investments becomes at least temporarily irreversible. We study the asset-pricing implications of illiquidity in a two-asset exchange economy with heterogeneous agents. In this market, one asset is always liquid. The other asset can be traded initially, but then not again until after a â€œblackoutâ€ period. Illiquidity has a dramatic e...
Prediction of future asset prices
Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei
2014-12-01
This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.
The capital-asset pricing model reconsidered: tests in real terms on ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper extends previous work of the authors to reconsider the capital-asset pricing model (CAPM) in South Africa in real terms. As in that work, the main question this study aimed to answer remains: Can the CAPM be accepted in the South African market for the purposes of the stochastic modelling of investment returns ...
Testing multi-factor asset pricing models in the Visegrad countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Morgese Borys, Magdalena
-, č. 323 (2007), s. 1-40 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : capital asset pricing model * macroeconomic factor models * cost of capital Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp323.pdf
Corporate sustainability and asset pricing models: empirical evidence for the Brazilian stock market
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Vitor Gonçalves de Azevedo
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract The paper investigates the impact of corporate sustainability on asset prices. For that purpose, we develop a novel corporate sustainability factor and test the extent to which this factor is priced in an augmented four-factor version of the traditional Fama & French (1993 asset pricing model. The corporate sustainability factor is based on a zero-investment portfolio which is long in stocks with high sustainability and short in stocks with low sustainability. We use data on the Brazilian stock market to estimate alternative model specifications with different combinations of four explanatory variables: the corporate sustainability premium, the market risk factor premium, the size factor premium and the book-to-market factor premium. Our results indicate that corporate sustainability is priced and helps to explain the variability in the cross-section of expected stock returns.
Empirical test of Capital Asset Pricing Model on Selected Banking Shares from Borsa Istanbul
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Fuzuli Aliyev
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper we tested Capital Asset Pricing Model (shortly CAPM hereafter on the selected banking stocks of Borsa Istanbul. Here we tried to explain how to price financial assets based on their risks in the case of BIST-100 index. CAPM is an important model in the portfolio management theory used by economic agents for the selection of financial assets. We used 12 random banking stocks’ monthly return data for 2001–2010 periods. To test the validity of the CAPM, we first derived the regression equation for the risk-free interest rate and risk premium relationship using January 2001–December 2009 data. Then, estimated January–December 2010 returns with the equation. Comparing forecasted return with the actual return, we concluded that the CAPM is valid for the portfolio consisting of the 12 banks traded in the ISE, i.e. The model could predict the overall outcome of portfolio of selected banking shares
Asset pricing restrictions on predictability : Frictions matter
de Roon, F.A.; Szymanowska, M.
2012-01-01
U.S. stock portfolios sorted on size; momentum; transaction costs; market-to-book, investment-to-assets, and return-on-assets (ROA) ratios; and industry classification show considerable levels and variation of return predictability, inconsistent with asset pricing models. This means that a
Asset Pricing Model and the Liquidity Effect: Empirical Evidence in the Brazilian Stock Market
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Otávio Ribeiro de Medeiros
2011-09-01
Full Text Available This paper is aims to analyze whether a liquidity premium exists in the Brazilian stock market. As a second goal, we include liquidity as an extra risk factor in asset pricing models and test whether this factor is priced and whether stock returns were explained not only by systematic risk, as proposed by the CAPM, by Fama and French’s (1993 three-factor model, and by Carhart’s (1997 momentum-factor model, but also by liquidity, as suggested by Amihud and Mendelson (1986. To achieve this, we used stock portfolios and five measures of liquidity. Among the asset pricing models tested, the CAPM was the least capable of explaining returns. We found that the inclusion of size and book-to-market factors in the CAPM, a momentum factor in the three-factor model, and a liquidity factor in the four-factor model improve their explanatory power of portfolio returns. In addition, we found that the five-factor model is marginally superior to the other asset pricing models tested.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pinto, Rinaldo Caldeira; Parente, Virginia [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)], emails: rinaldo@iee.usp.br, vparente@iee.usp.br
2010-07-01
The aim of this paper is to analyse the use of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Beta in the Brazilian electric distribution sector tariffs review. The betas applied by the Regulatory Agency are defined using data from the American, English and Brazilian markets. These betas will then be compared to the betas obtained in the domestic market. The betas were directly obtained from an economic-financial databank largely employed by the market. The sample is composed of companies' shares, priced at Sao Paulo Stock Market. Their main activity is the distribution of electric energy between July 2002 and July 2007. The results of mean betas obtained for the distribution segment, with values close to the ones applied by the regulatory agency for the cycle of tariff reviews between 2007-2010. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pinto, Rinaldo Caldeira; Parente, Virginia, E-mail: rinaldo@iee.usp.br, E-mail: vparente@iee.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)
2010-07-01
The aim of this paper is to analyse the use of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Beta in the Brazilian electric distribution sector tariffs review. The betas applied by the Regulatory Agency are defined using data from the American, English and Brazilian markets. These betas will then be compared to the betas obtained in the domestic market. The betas were directly obtained from an economic-financial databank largely employed by the market. The sample is composed of companies' shares, priced at Sao Paulo Stock Market. Their main activity is the distribution of electric energy between July 2002 and July 2007. The results of mean betas obtained for the distribution segment, with values close to the ones applied by the regulatory agency for the cycle of tariff reviews between 2007-2010. (author)
Olga Klinkowska
2009-01-01
In this paper I develop the asset pricing model in which the wealth portfolio is enriched with human capital and housing capital. These two types of capital account for a significant portion of the total wealth. Additionally I introduce dynamics into the model and represent conditioning information by common factors estimated with dynamic factor methodology. In this way I can use more accurate representative of the unobservable information set of the investors. Obtained results prove that ind...
Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy
Bingbing Dong
2014-01-01
This paper examines the role of money in understanding the behavior of asset prices and whether and how monetary policy should react to asset prices such as stock prices and equity premiums. To do so, I introduce money via the form of transaction cost into a production economy with limited stock market participation where agents with lower inter-temporal elasticity of substitution (IES), called non-stockholders, have no access to stock market. In addition to facilitating transactions of consu...
Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
G. Bian (Guorui); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)
2013-01-01
textabstractIn this paper, we develop a modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator for the multiple linear regression model with underlying student t distribution. We obtain the closed form of the estimators, derive the asymptotic properties, and demonstrate that the MML estimator is more
Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
G. Bian (Guorui); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)
2010-01-01
textabstractIn this paper, we develop a modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator for the multiple linear regression model with underlying student t distribution. We obtain the closed form of the estimators, derive the asymptotic properties, and demonstrate that the MML estimator is more
Heterogeneous Agent Model with Memory and Asset Price Behaviour
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Vošvrda, Miloslav; Vácha, Lukáš
2003-01-01
Roč. 12, č. 2 (2003), s. 155-168 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/00/0439; GA ČR GA402/01/0034 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : efficient markets hypothesis * technical trading rules * heterogeneous agent model with memory and learning Subject RIV: AH - Economics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stadtmann, Georg; Moritzen; Jörgensen
2012-01-01
According to the news model of asset price determination, only the unexpected component of an information should drive the stock price. We use the Danish publicly listed football club Brøndby IF to analyse how match outcome impacts the stock price. To disentangle gross news from net news, betting...
A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo
2006-01-01
We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model
The capital asset pricing model versus the three factor model: A United Kingdom Perspective
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chandra Shekhar Bhatnagar
2013-07-01
Full Text Available The Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Black (1972 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM postulates that the equilibrium rates of return on all risky assets are a linear function of their covariance with the market portfolio. Recent work by Fama and French (1996, 2006 introduce a Three Factor Model that questions the “real world application” of the CAPM Theorem and its ability to explain stock returns as well as value premium effects in the United States market. This paper provides an out-of-sample perspective to the work of Fama and French (1996, 2006. Multiple regression is used to compare the performance of the CAPM, a split sample CAPM and the Three Factor Model in explaining observed stock returns and value premium effects in the United Kingdom market. The methodology of Fama and French (2006 was used as the framework for this study. The findings show that the Three Factor Model holds for the United Kingdom Market and is superior to the CAPM and the split sample CAPM in explaining both stock returns and value premium effects. The “real world application” of the CAPM is therefore not supported by the United Kingdom data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suripto Suripto
2017-03-01
Full Text Available This research tested the influence of characteristics of the firms and of EVA (Eco-nomic Value Added to stock of returns. This Research sample was company Self-100 ValueCreator of year 2001 until 2006. Result of research indicated that company size measure,profitability, capital structure (characteristics of the firms and EVA by stimulant had aneffect on significant to stock of returns, but by partial only characteristics company. Condi-tion of company fundamentals had an effect on significance to stock of returns. This indica-tion that investor still considered factors of fundamentals was having investment. EVA didnot have an effect on significant to stock of returns. This finding indicated that Model deter-mination of stock of returns (CAPM Irrelevant determined the level of EVA and also indicatedthat CAPM (Capital Assets Pricing Model was not relevant in determining stock of returns inIndonesian Stock Exchange.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Evaluation of its Potential as a Strategic Planning Tool
Thomas H. Naylor; Francis Tapon
1982-01-01
In this paper we provide a summary of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and point out how it might possibly be used as a tool for strategic planning by corporations that own a portfolio of businesses. We also point out some of the assumptions underlying the CAPM which must be satisfied if it is to be used for strategic planning. Next we include a critical appraisal of the CAPM as a strategic planning tool. Finally, we state the case for linking competitive strategy models, CAPM models, a...
Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rzeznik, Aleksandra
This thesis consists of three essays investigating financial and real estate markets and identifying a relationship between them. A 2008 financial crises provides a perfect example of sizeable interactions between US housing market and equity prices, where a negative shock to house prices trigger...... a word-wide recession. Therefore, understanding forces driving investors behaviour and preferences, which in turn affect asset prices in both equity and housing market are of great interest....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nila Cahyati
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Investasi mempunyai karakteristik antara return dan resiko. Pembentukan portofolio optimal digunakan untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan dan meminimumkan resiko. Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM merupakan metode pengembangan baru dari CAPM yang dipengaruhi likuiditas. Indikator likuiditas apabila digabungkan dengan metode CAPM dapat membantu memaksimalkan return dan meminimumkan resiko. Tujuan penelitian adalah membandingkan expected retun dan resiko saham serta mengetahui proporsi pada portofolio optimal. Sampel yang digunakan merupakan saham JII (Jakarta Islamic Index periode Januari 2013 – November 2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa expected return portofolio LCAPM sebesar 0,0956 dengan resiko 0,0043 yang membentuk proporsi saham AALI (55,19% dan saham PGAS (44,81%.
Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gormsen, Niels Joachim
that the expected return to the distant-future cash flows increases by more in bad times than the expected return to near-future cash flows does. This new stylized fact is important for understanding why the expected return on the market portfolio as a whole varies over time. In addition, it has strong implications...... for which economic model that drives the return to stocks. Indeed, I find that none of the canonical asset pricing models can explain this new stylized fact while also explaining the previously documented facts about stock returns. The second chapter, called Conditional Risk, studies how the expected return...... on individual stocks is influenced by the fact that their riskiness varies over time. We introduce a new ”conditional-risk factor”, which is a simple method for determining how much of the expected return to individual stocks that can be explained by time variation in their market risk, i.e. market betas. Using...
Just value of the Tactebel energy: an valuation from the main models of pricing asset
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renato Campos
2010-01-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the current fair value of Tractebel Energia, from the main asset pricing models. The company was taken as the object due to its stable growth and the ease of obtaining data, since it is located in the city of Florianopolis. Nevertheless, the volatility in its shares has been priced aroused interest. Therefore, this study intended to provide subsidy for the decision making of investors regarding the purchase or sale of company stock. For this, the theoretical treat on the concept of asset valuation and the main models available, emphasizing their applications and limitations, which are: assessment book on, discounted dividend model and discounted cash flow. Regarding the methodological aspect, the research fits into exploratory, descriptive, highly quantitative field study and case. Moreover, it was made use of desk research, literature, interview and program Economática. Thus, the analysis of data initially sought to raise the assumptions demanded by each of the models surveyed ad apply them. The results were then compared and adjusted so that there is consistency. He was later adopted an arithmetic mean to assign a fair value to the company. From this average was defined as an acceptance range, depending on the variability of results and uncertainty in the estimates.
CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) and regulation in Brazilian electric distribution sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pinto, Rinaldo Caldeira; Parente, Virginia
2010-01-01
The aim of this paper is to analyse the use of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Beta in the Brazilian electric distribution sector tariffs review. The betas applied by the Regulatory Agency are defined using data from the American, English and Brazilian markets. These betas will then be compared to the betas obtained in the domestic market. The betas were directly obtained from an economic-financial databank largely employed by the market. The sample is composed of companies' shares, priced at Sao Paulo Stock Market. Their main activity is the distribution of electric energy between July 2002 and July 2007. The results of mean betas obtained for the distribution segment, with values close to the ones applied by the regulatory agency for the cycle of tariff reviews between 2007-2010. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mathius Tandiontong
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Investing in the stock market is one option for investors. Investment in ordinary shares was classified as longterminvestments to be able to provide added value and the risk for fixed income. This study focused on thedifference of APTM versus CAPM, and it also focused on the sensitivity of the APTM on the stock returns. Thisstudy was based on the assumption that: there were differences in sectoral stock return volatility, volatility ofmarket risk factors, and macroeconomic risks affecting sectoral differences in the sensitivity of stock returns;there were differences in the results of testing the validity, robustness unconditional CAPM and APTMmultifactorial; and time-varying volatility referring to the phenomena of structural breaks and asymmetriceffect. The method of analysis used nested models with panel data. Data were analyzed by using secondary datafrom 2005-2012. The results of this study concluded that: there was no different sensitivity of stock returnsacross sectors, but there was different insensitivity between systematic risk factors, CAPM and APTM multifactorthat showed the inconsistency of the sectoral shares, but the proven model of unconditional CAPM wasvalid; the difference of factor risk premiums was as a result of the structural break, the financial crisis period of2008 within the period 2005-2012.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dreyer, Johannes Kabderian; Schneider, Johannes; T. Smith, William
2013-01-01
This paper explores the implications of a novel class of preferences for the behavior of asset prices. Following a suggestion by Marshall (1920), we entertain the possibility that people derive utility not only from consumption, but also from the very act of saving. These ‘‘saving-based’’ prefere...
Regret Theory and Equilibrium Asset Prices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiliang Sheng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Regret theory is a behavioral approach to decision making under uncertainty. In this paper we assume that there are two representative investors in a frictionless market, a representative active investor who selects his optimal portfolio based on regret theory and a representative passive investor who invests only in the benchmark portfolio. In a partial equilibrium setting, the objective of the representative active investor is modeled as minimization of the regret about final wealth relative to the benchmark portfolio. In equilibrium this optimal strategy gives rise to a behavioral asset priciting model. We show that the market beta and the benchmark beta that is related to the investor’s regret are the determinants of equilibrium asset prices. We also extend our model to a market with multibenchmark portfolios. Empirical tests using stock price data from Shanghai Stock Exchange show strong support to the asset pricing model based on regret theory.
Entropy-based financial asset pricing.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mihály Ormos
Full Text Available We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.
Entropy-based financial asset pricing.
Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid
2014-01-01
We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.
Downside Risk And Empirical Asset Pricing
P. van Vliet (Pim)
2004-01-01
textabstractCurrently, the Nobel prize winning Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) celebrates its 40th birthday. Although widely applied in financial management, this model does not fully capture the empirical riskreturn relation of stocks; witness the beta, size, value and momentum effects. These
A Note on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Model Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erhan Bayraktar
2014-10-01
Full Text Available We show that the recent results on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem in the context of model uncertainty can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (hedging options are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of robust no-arbitrage which turns out to be equivalent to no-arbitrage under the additional assumption that hedging options with non-zero spread are non-redundant. A key result is the closedness of the set of attainable claims, which requires a new proof in our setting.
Generation unit selection via capital asset pricing model for generation planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cahyadi, Romy; Jo Min, K. [College of Engineering, Ames, IA (United States); Chunghsiao Wang [LG and E Energy Corp., Louisville, KY (United States); Abi-Samra, Nick [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
2003-07-01
The electric power industry in many parts of U.S.A. is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational changes. Such changes introduce substantial financial risk in generation planning. In order to incorporate the financial risk into the capital investment decision process of generation planning, in this paper, we develop and analyse a generation unit selection process via the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In particular, utilizing realistic data on gas-fired, coal-fired, and wind power generation units, we show which and how concrete steps can be taken for generation planning purposes. It is hoped that the generation unit selection process developed in this paper will help utilities in the area of effective and efficient generation planning when financial risks are considered. (Author)
Generation unit selection via capital asset pricing model for generation planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Romy Cahyadi; K. Jo Min; Chung-Hsiao Wang; Nick Abi-Samra [College of Engineering, Ames, IA (USA)
2003-11-01
The USA's electric power industry is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational changes. Such changes introduce substantial financial risk in generation planning. In order to incorporate the financial risk into the capital investment decision process of generation planning, this paper develops and analyses a generation unit selection process via the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In particular, utilizing realistic data on gas-fired, coal-fired, and wind power generation units, the authors show which and how concrete steps can be taken for generation planning purposes. It is hoped that the generation unit selection process will help utilities in the area of effective and efficient generation planning when financial risks are considered. 20 refs., 14 tabs.
Asset Pricing Implications of Firms' Financing Constraints
Gomes, Joao F; Yaron, Amir; Zhang, Lu
2002-01-01
We incorporate costly external finance in a production based asset pricing model and investigate whether financing frictions are quantitatively important for pricing a cross-section of expected returns. We show that the common assumptions about the nature of the financing frictions are captured by a simple ‘financing cost’ function, equal to the product of the financing premium and the amount of external finance. This approach provides a tractable framework to examine the role of financing fr...
Ambiguity and Volatility : Asset Pricing Implications
Pataracchia, B.
2011-01-01
Using a simple dynamic consumption-based asset pricing model, this paper explores the implications of a representative investor with smooth ambiguity averse preferences [Klibano¤, Marinacci and Mukerji, Econometrica (2005)] and provides a comparative analysis of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo
Full Text Available ABSTRACT This article examines three models for pricing risky assets, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM from Sharpe and Lintner, the three factor model from Fama and French, and the four factor model from Carhart, in the Brazilian mark et for the period from 2002 to 2013. The data is composed of shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA on a monthly basis, excluding financial sector shares, those with negative net equity, and those without consecutive monthly quotations. The proxy for market return is the Brazil Index (IBrX and for riskless assets savings accounts are used. The 2008 crisis, an event of immense proportions and market losses, may have caused alterations in the relationship structure of risky assets, causing changes in pricing model results. Division of the total period into pre-crisis and post-crisis sub-periods is the strategy used in order to achieve the main objective: to analyze the effects of the crisis on asset pricing model results and their predictive power. It is verified that the factors considered are relevant in the Brazilian market in both periods, but between the periods, changes occur in the statistical relevance of sensitivities to the market premium and to the value factor. Moreover, the predictive ability of the pricing models is greater in the post-crisis period, especially for the multifactor models, with the four factor model able to improve predictions of portfolio returns in this period by up to 80%, when compared to the CAPM.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Felipe Dias Paiva
2005-06-01
Full Text Available This study analyzed the Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM as well as the Downside Capital Asset Pricing Model D-CAPM and evaluated the latter as an efficient alternative asset pricing model. The returns of 40 companies on the São Paulo Stock Exchange BOVESPA were studied between December 1996 and August 2002. To test the models the study used as variables the Interbank Deposit Certificate CDI as a risk free asset and the Index of São Paulo Stock Exchange IBOVESPA as a proxy of the market portfolio. The D-CAPM was shown to be more useful in explaining the return of the stock market than the CAPM.O objetivo deste estudo é analisar o capital asset pricing model (CAPM e o downside capital asset pricing model (D-CAPM, bem como avaliar se este último modelo é uma eficiente alternativa de modelo de precificação de ativos. Os dados da pesquisa referem-se a 40 retornos de companhias listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, de dezembro de 1996 a agosto de 2002. O artigo utilizou, para testar os modelos, as variáveis Certificado de Depósito Interbancário (CDI, como um ativo livre de risco, e o índice da Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo (Ibovespa, como proxy do portfólio de mercado. Conclui-se, então, que o D-CAPM possui uma maior capacidade explicativa dos retornos dos ativos se comparado ao CAPM.
THE APPLICATION OF THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL ON THE CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bojan Tomic
2013-12-01
Full Text Available The paper describes and analyzes the application of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM and the single-index model on the Zagreb stock exchange during the drop in the total trade turnover, and mostly in the trade of equity securities. This model shows through the analysis techniques used to estimate the systematic risk per share compared to the market portfolio. Also, the model quantifies the environment in which a company and its stocks exist, expressing it as risk, or a beta coefficient. Furthermore, with respect to the market stagnation, one can also discuss the usefulness of the model, especially if the quality of the input data is questionable. In this regard, the importance of the proper application and interpretation of the results obtained based on the model during the stagnation of the market, and especially during the stagnation of the trade of equity securities, is gaining even greater importance and significance. On the other hand, the results obtained through the analysis of data point to problems arising during the application of the model. It turns out the main problem of applying the CAPM model is the market index with negative returns during the observation period.
Incomplete Financial Markets and Jumps in Asset Prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Crès, Hervé; Markeprand, Tobias Ejnar; Tvede, Mich
A dynamic pure-exchange general equilibrium model with uncertainty is studied. Fundamentals are supposed to depend continuously on states of nature. It is shown that: 1. if financial markets are complete, then asset prices vary continuously with states of nature, and; 2. if financial markets...... are incomplete, jumps in asset prices may be unavoidable. Consequently incomplete financial markets may increase volatility in asset prices significantly....
Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Models
Sydney Ludvigson; Xiaohong Chen
2004-01-01
A leading explanation of aggregate stock market behavior suggests that assets are priced as if there were a representative investor whose utility is a power function of the difference between aggregate consumption and a "habit" level, where the habit is some function of lagged and (possibly) contemporaneous consumption. But theory does not provide precise guidelines about the parametric functional relationship between the habit and aggregate consumption. This makes formal estimation and testi...
Testing Capital Asset Pricing Model: Empirical Evidences from Indian Equity Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kapil CHOUDHARY
2010-11-01
Full Text Available The present study examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM for the Indian stock market using monthly stock returns from 278 companies of BSE 500 Index listed on the Bombay stock exchange for the period of January 1996 to December 2009. The findings of this study are not substantiating the theory’s basic result that higher risk (beta is associated with higher levels of return. The model does explain, however, excess returns and thus lends support to the linear structure of the CAPM equation. The theory’s prediction for the intercept is that it should equal zero and the slope should equal the excess returns on the market portfolio. The results of the study lead to negate the above hypotheses and offer evidence against the CAPM. The tests conducted to examine the nonlinearity of the relationship between return and betas bolster the hypothesis that the expected return-beta relationship is linear. Additionally, this study investigates whether the CAPM adequately captures all-important determinants of returns including the residual variance of stocks. The results exhibit that residual risk has no effect on the expected returns of portfolios.
Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for the reconstruction of bipartite financial networks
Squartini, Tiziano; Almog, Assaf; Caldarelli, Guido; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego; Cimini, Giulio
2017-09-01
Reconstructing patterns of interconnections from partial information is one of the most important issues in the statistical physics of complex networks. A paramount example is provided by financial networks. In fact, the spreading and amplification of financial distress in capital markets are strongly affected by the interconnections among financial institutions. Yet, while the aggregate balance sheets of institutions are publicly disclosed, information on single positions is mostly confidential and, as such, unavailable. Standard approaches to reconstruct the network of financial interconnection produce unrealistically dense topologies, leading to a biased estimation of systemic risk. Moreover, reconstruction techniques are generally designed for monopartite networks of bilateral exposures between financial institutions, thus failing in reproducing bipartite networks of security holdings (e.g., investment portfolios). Here we propose a reconstruction method based on constrained entropy maximization, tailored for bipartite financial networks. Such a procedure enhances the traditional capital-asset pricing model (CAPM) and allows us to reproduce the correct topology of the network. We test this enhanced CAPM (ECAPM) method on a dataset, collected by the European Central Bank, of detailed security holdings of European institutional sectors over a period of six years (2009-2015). Our approach outperforms the traditional CAPM and the recently proposed maximum-entropy CAPM both in reproducing the network topology and in estimating systemic risk due to fire sales spillovers. In general, ECAPM can be applied to the whole class of weighted bipartite networks described by the fitness model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fakhri Husein
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Shariah Compliant Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM is a modification of the model Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. This research is quantitative descriptive study of theories of optimal portfolio analysis applied to trading stocks, especially in stocks Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling technique used was purposive sampling and obtained 26 shares. The analysis tool used is MatLab R2010a. The results of this study are not prove theMarkowitz portfolio theory. This is explained by the amount of Beta market (β_m a value beta below 1 indicates that the fluctuation of stocks returns do not follow the movement of market fluctuations. Investors are likely to want a high profit, the investors are advised to choose a second portfolio groups, with rate of 0.176722% and investors are likely to enjoy a substantial risk in the investment portfolio are advised to choose the first group with a great risk of 0.8501%.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zainul Hasan Quthbi
2017-10-01
Artikel ini bermaksud untuk menganalisis saham syariah yang tergolong efisien untuk keputusan investasi dengan menggunakan SCAPM (Shari’a Compliant Asset Pricing Model. SCAPM adalah bentuk modifikasi dari CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model yang bertujuan agar kerangka model analisis masih dalam kerangka syariah. Teknik pengumpulan data adalah dokumentasi dari data yang bersifat sekunder. Digunakan 13 sampel saham syariah pada penelitian ini dengan kriteria saham syariah yang konsisten masuk pada JII (Jakarta Islamic Index periode penelitian Desember 2013 hingga November 2016 dan memiliki pengembalian saham individual positif. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan terdapat 9 saham syariah yang tergolong efisien dan 4 sisanya tidak efisien. Saham PT. Adaro Energy memiliki nilai RVAR terbesar yang berarti memiliki kinerja saham paling baik.
Intangible Capital, Corporate Valuation and Asset Pricing
Danthine, Jean-Pierre; Jin, Xiangrong
2006-01-01
Recent studies have found unmeasured intangible capital to be large and important. In this paper we observe that by nature intangible capital is also very different from physical capital. We find it plausible to argue that the accumulation process for intangible capital differs significantly from the process by which physical capital accumulates. We study the implications of this hypothesis for rational firm valuation and asset pricing using a two-sector general equilibrium model. Our main fi...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Busato, Francesco; Addessi, William
The paper investigates the nexus between labor and financial markets, focusing on the interaction between labor union behavior in setting wages, firms' investment strategy and asset prices. The way unions set wage claims after observing firm's financial performance increases the volatility of firms......' returns and the riskiness of corporate ownership. To remunerate this higher volatility and stronger risk, firms' equities have to grant high return. This mechanism is able to offer an explanation of for the "equity puzzle", that is it can explain the difference between equity returns and the risk free...... rate. It is a welcome result that the simulated excess return is about the empirical estimate and this result is obtained with a logarithmic specification of the shareholders preferences....
Essays on International Finance and Asset Pricing
Eiling, E.
2007-01-01
The second part of this dissertation takes a more general asset pricing perspective. In particular, it investigates the impact of human capital on asset pricing. Investors' portfolio decisions may be affected by their human capital. For instance, an investor who works in the IT sector may want to
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schutz, S.R.
1978-12-01
An energy source ready for immediate use on a commercial scale is solar energy in the form of On Site Solar Heating (OSSH) systems. These systems collect solar energy with rooftop panels, store excess energy in water storage tanks and can, in certain circumstances, provide 100% of the space heating and hot water required by the occupants of the residential or commercial structure on which the system is located. Such systems would take advantage of a free and inexhaustible energy source--sunlight. The principal drawback of such systems is the high initial capital cost. The solution would normally be a carefully worked out corporate financing plan. However, at the moment it is individual homeowners and not corporations who are attempting to finance these systems. As a result, the terms of finance are excessively stringent and constitute the main obstacle to the large scale market penetration of OSSH. This study analyzes the feasibility of OSSH as a private utility investment. Such systems would be installed and owned by private utilities and would displace other investment projects, principally electric generating plants. The return on OSSH is calculated on the basis of the cost to the consumer of the equivalent amount of electrical energy that is displaced by the OSSH system. The hurdle rate for investment in OSSH is calculated using the Sharpe--Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model. The results of this study indicate that OSSH is a low risk investment having an appropriate hurdle rate of 7.9%. At this rate, OSSH investment appears marginally acceptable in northern California and unambiguously acceptable in southern California. The results also suggest that utility investment in OSSH should lead to a higher degree of financial leverage for utility companies without a concurrent deterioration in the risk class of utility equity.
Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing
Philippe BACCHETTA; Eric VAN WINCOOP
2004-01-01
We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. Higher order expectations add an additional term to a standard asset pricing equation. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price. In the context of a dynamic noisy r...
Fractal asset returns, arbitrage and option pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Potgieter, Petrus H.
2009-01-01
In the discrete-time fractional random walk model a market with one risky asset affords an arbitrage opportunity as described by Cutland et al. [Cutland NJ, Kopp PE, Willinger W. Stock price returns and the Joseph effect: a fractional version of the Black-Scholes model. In: Russo Francesco, Bolthausen Erwin, Dozzi Marco, editors. Seminar on 6 stochastic analysis, random fields and applications, pp. 327-351. Seminar on stochastic analysis, random fields and applications. Ascona: Centro Stefano Franscini; 1993, Progress in probability 36. Birkhauser Verlag; 1995.] and Sottinen [Sottinen Tommi. Fractional Brownian motion, random walks and binary market models. Finance Stoch 2001;5(3):343-355]. We briefly discuss these results and compute a numerical example in a fractional binomial model as illustration and mention an option pricing model for assets the returns of which are driven by a fractional Brownian motion [Yaozhong Hu, Bernt Oksendal. Fractional white noise calculus and applications to finance. Infin Dimens Anal Quant Probability Rel Top 2003;6:1-32, ISSN 0219-0257; Fajardo J, Cajueiro DO. Volatility estimation and option pricing with fractional Brownian motion, October 2003. Available from: (http://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/finlab/flwp53.html)].
Asset prices and rents in a GE model with imperfect competition
Pierre Lafourcade
2003-01-01
This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects on asset valuation and capital accumulation of an exogenous drop in the rate of return required by investors in a model of production with imperfectly competitive product markets. The model improves substantially on the standard perfectly competitive neo-classical framework, by dissociating the behavior of marginal and average q. It tracks more closely current observed data on the ratio of stock-market value to the economy's capital base, wh...
Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices
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Andras Fulop
2017-10-01
Full Text Available We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.
Test Of Capital Asset Pricing Model On Stocks At Karachi Stock Exchange
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Arbab Khalid Cheema
2010-12-01
Full Text Available This paper attempts to empirically test the single-factor CAPM developed by Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Jan Mossin (1966 and others, which proposes that the expected returns of capital assets are dependent on their risk relative to the entire market which is quantified by a correlation co-efficient between asset returns and market returns. The test of 20 stocks at Karachi Stock Exchange have shown that though, the beta co-efficients are significant, their strength is considerably weak. Therefore, other factors which are unaccounted for in this model are important in determining risk and return. In addition, betas are less relevant in a volatile emerging capital markets like the KSE. Thus, the multi-factor models are better than the classical CAPM at determining the risk-return relationship. However, the single-factor CAPM remains in practice beacause of its simplicity.
Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility
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Xinfeng Ruan
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.
Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market
Veiga Helena; Vorsatz Marc
2006-01-01
We analyze in the laboratory whether an uninformed trader is able to manipulate the price of a financial asset. To do so, we compare the results of two different experimental treatments. In the Benchmark Treatment, twelve subjects trade a common value asset that takes either a high or a low value. Information is distributed asymmetrically, only three outof twelve subjects know the actual value of the asset. The Manipulation Treatment is identical to the Benchmark Treatment apart from the fact...
"Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium
Aiyagari, S.R.; Gertler, M.
1998-01-01
We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever themselves, further, either directly by borrowing short term or indirectly by engaging in futures and options trading, so that the scenario is relevant to contemporary financial markets. When some shock...
Asset Prices and Trading Volume under Fixed Transactions Costs.
Lo, Andrew W.; Mamaysky, Harry; Wang, Jiang
2004-01-01
We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume when agents face fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large "no-trade" regions for each agent's optimal trading policy. The inability to trade more frequently reduces the agents' asset demand and in equilibrium gives rise to a…
Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments
Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.; van de Velden, H.
2008-01-01
We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jacek Lipiec
2014-07-01
Full Text Available In this article, we test the capital asset pricing model (CAPM on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE by measuring the performance of two portfolios composed of construction firms: family-controlled and nonfamily controlled. These portfolios were selected from the WIG-Construction (WIG—Warszawski Indeks Giełdowy—Warsaw Stock Exchange Index. The performance of both portfolios was measured in the period from 2006 to 2012 with respect to three sub-periods: (1 pre-crisis period: 2006–2007; (2 crisis period: 2008–2009; and (3 post-crisis period: 2010–2012. This division was constructed in this way to find out how family firms performed in crisis times in relation to nonfamily firms. In addition, the construction portfolio was chosen due to its sensitivity to recessions. When an economy faces a downturn, construction firms are among the first to be exposed to risk. The performance was measured by using the capital asset pricing model with statistical inference. We find that public family firms significantly outperformed non-family peers in the crisis times.
The pricing of illiquidity and illiquid assets : Essays on empirical asset pricing
Tuijp, Patrick
2016-01-01
This dissertation studies the pricing of liquidity and illiquid assets. For this thesis, liquidity will generally refer to the ease with which an asset can be traded. The first chapter investigates the role of the investment horizon in the impact of illiquidity on stock prices. We obtain a clientele
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Leo Julianto
2015-09-01
Full Text Available For decades, there were many models explaining the returns earned emerged in order to fulfil the curiosity had by human. Since then, various studies and empirical findings in many countries’ stock market showedthat the empirical findings of market return explanation and the return of assets meet the different results in both clarify of model and identification of significant determinant variables.Therefore, many comparative studies between models were accomplished. In this study, the author attempts to do comparative study between two models, APT and CAPM, in Indonesian Capital Market during period 2008 until 2012. Besides, the author also attempts to find how much inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate describe the returns earned in each sector existed in Indonesia Capital Market. As the result, the author find out that CAPM has bigger explanation power than APT in Indonesian Capital Market during period 2008-2012. Besides, the author also found that among macroeconomic factors, there are only two macroeconomic factors that can affect certain samples significantly. They are change in BI rate, which affect AALI, ANTM, ASII, TLKM, UNTR, and change in exchange rate, which affect INDF and TLKM significantly.
Essays on banking and asset pricing
Roscovan, V.
2008-01-01
This dissertation contains three studies on banking and asset pricing. It analyzes questions related to informational content of bank loan announcements and trading activity. The first two chapters examine theoretically and empirically how stock and bond holders react to bank loan announcements as a
Lectures on financial mathematics discrete asset pricing
Anderson, Greg
2010-01-01
This is a short book on the fundamental concepts of the no-arbitrage theory of pricing financial derivatives. Its scope is limited to the general discrete setting of models for which the set of possible states is finite and so is the set of possible trading times--this includes the popular binomial tree model. This setting has the advantage of being fairly general while not requiring a sophisticated understanding of analysis at the graduate level. Topics include understanding the several variants of "arbitrage", the fundamental theorems of asset pricing in terms of martingale measures, and applications to forwards and futures. The authors' motivation is to present the material in a way that clarifies as much as possible why the often confusing basic facts are true. Therefore the ideas are organized from a mathematical point of view with the emphasis on understanding exactly what is under the hood and how it works. Every effort is made to include complete explanations and proofs, and the reader is encouraged t...
Taxes, Regulations, and Asset Prices
Ellen R. McGrattan; Edward C. Prescott
2001-01-01
U.S. stock prices have increased much faster than gross domestic product (GDP) in the postwar period. Between 1962 and 2000, corporate equity value relative to GDP nearly doubled. In this paper, we determine what standard growth theory says the equity value should be in 1962 and 2000, the two years for which our steady-state assumption is a reasonable one. We find that the actual valuations were close to the theoretical predictions in both years. The reason for the large run-up in equity valu...
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Muhammad Hanif
2011-12-01
Full Text Available A speedy emerging area of finance is the Shari’a compliant financial system. In first decade of 21st century Islamic financing has shown tremendous increase and global volume has reached to US $ 1,041 billion by the end of 2009. Being financial intermediaries Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs have shown commendable progress in deposit collection under profit and loss sharing schemes however investment avenues are limited in comparison of conventional banks. Although a large number of financing modes are available to IFIs, yet maintenance of required liquidity is serious issue because money market and capital market is dominated by interest based instruments and conventional practices (some are clearly prohibited by Shari’a. Recently Al-meezan Investment Management Ltd. (AIML has started screening of Shari’a compliant stocks on KSE, and provided an avenue for Shari’a Compliant Investors/IFIs to invest in equities. This study is conducted to understand conventional asset pricing models, document any mismatching with Shari’a financial system, and suggest amendments if required. Findings suggest existing models of equity pricing (CAPM, APT/MFM are very much practicable under Shari’a framework with slight modification of risk free return because under Shari’a frame work risk free returns do not exist.
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Erol Muzır
2010-09-01
Full Text Available This paper is prepared to test the common opinion that the multifactor asset pricing models produce superior predictions as compared to the single factor models and to evaluate the performance of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. For this purpose, the monthly return data from January 1996 and December 2004 of the stocks of 45 firms listed at Istanbul Stock Exchange were used. Our factor analysis results show that 68,3 % of the return variation can be explained by five factors. Although the APT model has generated a low coefficient of determination, 28,3 %, it proves to be more competent in explaining stock return changes when compared to CAPM which has an inferior explanation power, 5,4 %. Furthermore, we have observed that APT is more robust also in capturing the effects of any economic crisis on return variations.
Does Central Bank Tone Move Asset Prices?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmeling, Maik; Wagner, Christian
the next press conference. Moreover, we find that positive tone changes are associated with increasing government bond yields, lower implied equity volatility, lower variance risk premia, and lower corporate credit spreads. Since we also show that tone changes are unrelated to current and future economic...... fundamentals, these results support the conjecture that central bank tone matters for asset prices through a risk-based channel. Our main findings also apply to U.S. markets, where stock prices and Treasury yields increase when the Fed chair’s tone in the Congressional Testimony becomes more positive....
Asset Pricing in Emerging Markets
Ajrapetova, Tamara
2017-01-01
General content: Current methods of estimation of cost of capital in the emerging markets are often neglecting various contradictions with the essentials of the model structure and assumptions. As the result of such imprecisions, the cost of equity is often understated (overstated). This thesis will attempt to assess current level of emerging market integration, liquidity and concentration. This will be followed by evaluation of traditional and alternative models for estimation of cost of equ...
Essays on robust asset pricing
Horváth, Ferenc
2017-01-01
The central concept of this doctoral dissertation is robustness. I analyze how model and parameter uncertainty affect financial decisions of investors and fund managers, and what their equilibrium consequences are. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the most important concepts and methodologies used in
Habit-based Asset Pricing with Limited Participation Consumption
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bach, Christian; Møller, Stig Vinther
We calibrate and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation using limited participation consumption data. Based on survey data of a representative sample of American households, we distinguish between assetholder and non-assetholder consumption, as well as the standard...
Habit-based asset pricing with limited participation consumption
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Stig Vinther; Bach, Christian
2011-01-01
We calibrate and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation using limited participation consumption data. Based on survey data of a representative sample of American households, we distinguish between assetholder and non-assetholder consumption, as well as the standard...
Willem H. Buiter
1987-01-01
Excess volatility tests for financial market efficiency maintain the hypothesis of risk-neutrality. This permits the specification of the benchmark efficient market price as the present discounted value of expected future dividends. By departing from the risk-neutrality assumption in a stripped-down version of Lucas's general equilibrium asset pricing model, I show that asset prices determined in a competitive asset market and efficient by construction can nevertheless violate the variance bo...
Stochastic equilibria of an asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs and random dividends
Zhu, M.; Wang, D.; Guo, M.
2011-01-01
We investigate dynamical properties of a heterogeneous agent model with random dividends and further study the relationship between dynamical properties of the random model and those of the corresponding deterministic skeleton, which is obtained by setting the random dividends as their constant mean
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Bent Jesper; van der Wel, Michel
of the risk premium is associated with the slope factor, and individual risk prices depend on own past values, factor realizations, and past values of other risk prices, and are significantly related to the output gap, consumption, and the equity risk price. The absence of arbitrage opportunities is strongly...... is tested, but in addition to the standard bilinear term in factor loadings and market prices of risk, the relevant mean restriction in the term structure case involves an additional nonlinear (quadratic) term in factor loadings. We estimate our general model using likelihood-based dynamic factor model...... techniques for a variety of volatility factors, and implement the relevant likelihood ratio tests. Our factor model estimates are similar across a general state space implementation and an alternative robust two-step principal components approach. The evidence favors time-varying market prices of risk. Most...
Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Behavior
Xiaohong Chen; Sydney C. Ludvigson
2004-01-01
This paper studies the ability of a general class of habit-based asset pricing models to match the conditional moment restrictions implied by asset pricing theory. We treat the functional form of the habit as unknown, and to estimate it along with the rest of the model's finite dimensional parameters. Using quarterly data on consumption growth, assets returns and instruments, our empirical results indicate that the estimated habit function is nonlinear, the habit formation is better described...
Elvira, Nasika
2014-01-01
The objective of research is to explain the analysis against the performance of stocks of the companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange based on their return and risk, and to explain the analysis of the determination of efficient stock group based on Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) over the stocks of the companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for portfolio establishment in period 2010-2012. The USAge of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in this research is that CAPM method can ex...
Application of quantum master equation for long-term prognosis of asset-prices
Khrennikova, Polina
2016-05-01
This study combines the disciplines of behavioral finance and an extension of econophysics, namely the concepts and mathematical structure of quantum physics. We apply the formalism of quantum theory to model the dynamics of some correlated financial assets, where the proposed model can be potentially applied for developing a long-term prognosis of asset price formation. At the informational level, the asset price states interact with each other by the means of a ;financial bath;. The latter is composed of agents' expectations about the future developments of asset prices on the finance market, as well as financially important information from mass-media, society, and politicians. One of the essential behavioral factors leading to the quantum-like dynamics of asset prices is the irrationality of agents' expectations operating on the finance market. These expectations lead to a deeper type of uncertainty concerning the future price dynamics of the assets, than given by a classical probability theory, e.g., in the framework of the classical financial mathematics, which is based on the theory of stochastic processes. The quantum dimension of the uncertainty in price dynamics is expressed in the form of the price-states superposition and entanglement between the prices of the different financial assets. In our model, the resolution of this deep quantum uncertainty is mathematically captured with the aid of the quantum master equation (its quantum Markov approximation). We illustrate our model of preparation of a future asset price prognosis by a numerical simulation, involving two correlated assets. Their returns interact more intensively, than understood by a classical statistical correlation. The model predictions can be extended to more complex models to obtain price configuration for multiple assets and portfolios.
Investment-based Capital Asset Pricing Model からみた投資と資産収益率
宮川, 努; 滝澤, 美帆
2017-01-01
本稿は，資産収益率の要因を，投資変動を使って説明するInvestment-based Capital Asset Pricing Model（I-CAPM）を使って，日米の投資規模と資産収益率の関係及び無形資産規模の影響を考察した。I-CAPM によれば，投資規模が大きくなると投資に付帯する費用によって資産収益率が低下するが，単純に投資規模別に分けた資産収益率を調べると，日米ともにI-CAPM の妥当性が検証される。しかしFama and French（1995）によるThree Factor Model など他の要因も加えると，日本では投資規模が明示的に資産収益率に影響を与える効果は検出できなかった。しかし米国では無形資産規模が大きい場合，I-CAPM の妥当性が成立することがわかる。また有形資産投資に無形資産投資を加えると収益率格差が縮小する現象も見られた。このことは，有形資産投資に伴う費用を無形資産投資が一部代替している可能性を示している，日本が今後IT 化を進める際にはハード面の投資だけでなく，無形資産投資も合わせて実施することで，付帯費用に伴う収益率低下を防ぐ必要がある...
Pricing of path dependent derivatives with discretely monitored underlying assets
Choi, Hyomin
This dissertation presents two different approaches to path dependent option pricing with discrete sampling. Provided the underlying asset of a path dependent derivative contract follows an affine process, we use the forward characteristic method to evaluate its fair price. Our study shows that the valuation method is numerically accessible as long as the contract payoff is a linear combination of log return of its underlying asset price. We compute various examples of such contracts and give contract-tailored formulas that we use in these examples. In the second part, we consider variance options under stochastic volatility model. We analyze the difference between variance option prices with discrete and continuous sampling as a function of N, the number of observations made in the former. We find the series expansion of the difference with respect to 1/N and find its leading term. By adding this leading term to the value of continuously sampled variance option, we obtain a simple and well-understood approximation of discretely sample variance option price.
Loss Aversion, Adaptive Beliefs, and Asset Pricing Dynamics
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Kamal Samy Selim
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We study asset pricing dynamics in artificial financial markets model. The financial market is populated with agents following two heterogeneous trading beliefs, the technical and the fundamental prediction rules. Agents switch between trading rules with respect to their past performance. The agents are loss averse over asset price fluctuations. Loss aversion behaviour depends on the past performance of the trading strategies in terms of an evolutionary fitness measure. We propose a novel application of the prospect theory to agent-based modelling, and by simulation, the effect of evolutionary fitness measure on adaptive belief system is investigated. For comparison, we study pricing dynamics of a financial market populated with chartists perceive losses and gains symmetrically. One of our contributions is validating the agent-based models using real financial data of the Egyptian Stock Exchange. We find that our framework can explain important stylized facts in financial time series, such as random walk price behaviour, bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, power-law tails in the distribution of returns, excess volatility, volatility clustering, the absence of autocorrelation in raw returns, and the power-law autocorrelations in absolute returns. In addition to this, we find that loss aversion improves market quality and market stability.
Saputra, Wildan Deny
2015-01-01
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is method that used to make an estimate of the expected returns of an investment. CAPM explain about relation between expected returns and risk of shares. The research is descriptive research with the quantitative analysis which aims to know the performance of shares listed in the index kompas100 2010-2013 period based on the return and the risk of shares and know of efficient shares and inefficient shares based on CAPM method. Sample of the research are 37 ...
International Asset Pricing, Currency Risk and Integration of Markets
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Sema BAYRAKTAR
2014-11-01
Full Text Available This study attempts to test the conditional version of the international asset-pricing model proposed in Bayraktar (2000, 2009 by using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process. The theoretical model, contrary to previous empirical studies that have used random selection of currency risks, determines which currencies should be included in an empirical test, thus avoids this kind of random selection bias. The results from both full and sub-samples regressions provide some weak evidence for the existence of exchange rate risks, thus partially support the theory. However, exchange rate risks' premia are found considerably smaller than that of market risk.
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Francis M HUTABARAT
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The industry in Indonesia is an interesting business to capitalize. In Indonesia many companies were established since it is profitable. The capital market serves as an economic pillar in most countries. Indonesia is a rich country, rich in many ways especially in natural resources. However, the industry has its ups and downs in the stock market. It is interesting to see the performance of the companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study aimed to measure and analyze companies listed in Pefindo25 at Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model. The sample used is 25 companies listed at Pefindo25 index. Based on the results of the study, it can conclude that after analyzing the companies listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model that based on Beta analysis, the companies have the type of stocks that are aggressive and defensive. With positive and negative return. The company with aggressive beta shows that the company tend to face higher risk, as JPFA find itself with positif return 15.47% expected return. And companies with defensive type of stocks tend to have positive return such as: FISH, STTP, AISA, APLN, and others since they are not sensitive to market changes. It is recommended for further research to look on this CAPM method in analyzing the stock investment.
Learning about rare disasters: implications for consumption and asset prices
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, Max; Kejak, Michal; Pakoš, Michal
2015-01-01
Roč. 19, č. 3 (2015), s. 1053-1104 ISSN 1572-3097 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : rare diasasters * asset prices * consumption Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.080, year: 2015
THE EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE AND EMOTIONAL ASSET PRICING
MARC GÜRTLER; NORA HARTMANN
2007-01-01
"Since the equity premium as well as the risk-free rate puzzle question the concepts central to financial and economic modeling, we apply behavioral decision theory to asset pricing in view of solving these puzzles. U.S. stock market data for the period 1960-2003 and German stock market data for the period 1977-2003 show that emotional investors who act in accordance to Bell's (1985) disappointment theory -a special case of prospect theory- and additionally administer mental accounts demand a...
The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.
Hull, John C; White, Alan D
1987-01-01
One option-pricing problem which has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of European call on an asset which has a stochastic volatility. This paper examines this problem. The option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price. Numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price. It is found that the Black-Scholes price frequently overprices options and that the ...
Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution
Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah
2015-12-01
This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.
Pareto Improving Price Regulation when the Asset Market is Incomplete
Herings, P.J.J.; Polemarchakis, H.M.
1999-01-01
When the asset market is incomplete, competitive equilibria are constrained suboptimal, which provides a scope for pareto improving interventions. Price regulation can be such a pareto improving policy, even when the welfare effects of rationing are taken into account. An appealing aspect of price
Effects of Idiosyncratic Volatility in Asset Pricing
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André Luís Leite
2016-04-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to evaluate the effects of the aggregate market volatility components - average volatility and average correlation - on the pricing of portfolios sorted by idiosyncratic volatility, using Brazilian data. The study investigates whether portfolios with high and low idiosyncratic volatility - in relation to the Fama and French model (1996 - have different exposures to innovations in average market volatility, and consequently, different expectations for return. The results are in line with those found for US data, although they portray the Brazilian reality. Decomposition of volatility allows the average volatility component, without the disturbance generated by the average correlation component, to better price the effects of a worsening or an improvement in the investment environment. This result is also identical to that found for US data. Average variance should thus command a risk premium. For US data, this premium is negative. According to Chen and Petkova (2012, the main reason for this negative sign is the high level of investment in research and development recorded by companies with high idiosyncratic volatility. As in Brazil this type of investment is significantly lower than in the US, it was expected that a result with the opposite sign would be found, which is in fact what occurred.
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KADEK MIRA PITRIYANTI
2015-11-01
Full Text Available In 1996, Fama and French developed the CAPM in Three Factor Model Fama and French (TFMFF to analyze the relationship between risk with rate of return by adding firm size factor that is proxied by Small Minus Big (SMB and value factor at Book to Market Ratio that is proxied by High Minus Low (HML on the CAPM model. The aim of this research is to compare the ability of CAPM and TFMFF in estimating the returns on six types of portfolios which are formed based on firm size and BE/ME. Selected samples are stocks of LQ-45 in period of February 2014, which have passed the selection of firm profits and ROE Warren Buffett criteria. Simple linear regression and Multiple linear regression with t test and F test statistics are used to demonstrate the influence and significance level of each variable. The results showed that TFMFF was more superior than CAPM. Market risk factor consistently affected each portfolio. SMB and HML is not always significantly effect on each portfolio, such as portfolio B/H, only market risk factor has a significant effect. However, the addition of SMB factors and HML factors could increase the coefficient of determination in each formed portfolio.
Initial cash/asset ratio and asset prices: an experimental study.
Caginalp, G; Porter, D; Smith, V
1998-01-20
A series of experiments, in which nine participants trade an asset over 15 periods, test the hypothesis that an initial imbalance of asset/cash will influence the trading price over an extended time. Participants know at the outset that the asset or "stock" pays a single dividend with fixed expectation value at the end of the 15th period. In experiments with a greater total value of cash at the start, the mean prices during the trading periods are higher, compared with those with greater amount of asset, with a high degree of statistical significance. The difference is most significant at the outset and gradually tapers near the end of the experiment. The results are very surprising from a rational expectations and classical game theory perspective, because the possession of a large amount of cash does not lead to a simple motivation for a trader to bid excessively on a financial instrument. The gradual erosion of the difference toward the end of trading, however, suggests that fundamental value is approached belatedly, offering some consolation to the rational expectations theory. It also suggests that there is a time scale on which an evolution toward fundamental value occurs. The experimental results are qualitatively compatible with the price dynamics predicted by a system of differential equations based on asset flow. The results have broad implications for the marketing of securities, particularly initial and secondary public offerings, government bonds, etc., where excess supply has been conjectured to suppress prices.
A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model
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Minsuk Kwak
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.
Learning about rare disasters: implications for consumption and asset prices
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal; Pakoš, Michal
2015-01-01
Roč. 19, č. 3 (2015), s. 1053-1104 ISSN 1572-3097 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : rare diasasters * asset prices * consumption Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.080, year: 2015
International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations
Chaieb, I.; Errunza, V.
2007-01-01
We analyze the impact of both purchasing power parity (PPP) deviations and market segmentation on asset pricing and investor's portfolio holdings. The freely traded securities command a world market risk premium and an inflation risk premium. The securities that can be held by only a subset of
Efficient Pricing of Derivatives on Assets with Discrete Dividends
Vellekoop, M.H.; Nieuwenhuis, J.W.
2006-01-01
It is argued that due to inconsistencies in existing methods to approximate the prices of equity options on assets which pay out fixed cash dividends at future dates, a new approach to this problem may be useful. Logically consistent methods which are guaranteed to exclude arbitrage exist, but they
Asset price and trade volume relation in artificial market impacted by value investors
Tangmongkollert, K.; Suwanna, S.
2016-05-01
The relationship between return and trade volume has been of great interests in a financial market. The appearance of asymmetry in the price-volume relation in the bull and bear market is still unsettled. We present a model of the value investor traders (VIs) in the double auction system, in which agents make trading decision based on the pseudo fundamental price modelled by sawtooth oscillations. We investigate the system by two different time series for the asset fundamental price: one corresponds to the fundamental price in a growing phase; and the other corresponds to that in a declining phase. The simulation results show that the trade volume is proportional to the difference between the market price and the fundamental price, and that there is asymmetry between the buying and selling phases. Furthermore, the selling phase has more significant impact of price on the trade volume than the buying phase.
A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets
Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako
An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.
A skewed distribution with asset pricing applications
de Roon, Frans; Karehnke, P.
2017-01-01
Recent research has identified skewness and downside risk as one of the most important features of risk. We present a new distribution which makes modeling skewed risks no more difficult than normally distributed (symmetric) risks. Our distribution is a combination of the “downside” and “upside”
Tax Avoidance, Welfare Transfers, and Asset Prices
Denis Gorea
2013-01-01
Does tax avoidance have any implications for financial markets? This paper quantifies the general equilibrium implications of tax avoidance by setting up an incomplete markets production economy model in which households pay capital gains taxes and have access to tax avoidance technologies provided by financial institutions. I find that changes in the level of tax avoidance have disproportionate effects on different groups of agents and generally benefit the old, wealthy and high income house...
Nasuha, Rizky
2013-01-01
The research was motivated by the development of the business world, where companies rely heavily on investment. Before investing, stock investment in this case, it is necessary to consider the possibilities that will be faced by investors. One method used to assess investment decisions is the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). This study aims to analyze the CAPM method related to stock investment decisions. Types of research used in this research is descriptive research with quantitative ap...
Kurniawan, Fauzi Adi
2015-01-01
This research purpose to determine the performance of stock based on the return and risk to determine the group of efficient stocks and inefficient stock by the use of methods of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The sample used in this study were 15 company shares consumer goods industry sector listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2011-2013 that selected based on certain criteria. The analysis showed there is 1 stock companies included in the group of inefficient stock (overvalued) and 14 st...
Portfolio choice and asset pricing with endogenous beliefs and skewness preference
Karehnke, P.
2014-01-01
This thesis studies portfolio choice and asset pricing with preferences which go beyond the standard expected utility and mean-variance preferences. The first part of this thesis analyses a decision model in which the decision maker forms endogenous beliefs given his anticipation utility and his
Optimal Dynamic Pricing for Perishable Assets with Nonhomogeneous Demand
Wen Zhao; Yu-Sheng Zheng
2000-01-01
We consider a dynamic pricing model for selling a given stock of a perishable product over a finite time horizon. Customers, whose reservation price distribution changes over time, arrive according to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. We show that at any given time, the optimal price decreases with inventory. We also identify a sufficient condition under which the optimal price decreases over time for a given inventory level. This sufficient condition requires that the willingness of a custom...
Compensation schemes, liquidity provision, and asset prices: An experimental analysis
Baghestanian, Sascha; Gortner, Paul; Massenot, Baptiste
2015-01-01
In an experimental setting in which investors can entrust their money to traders, we investigate how compensation schemes affect liquidity provision and asset prices. Investors face a trade-off between risk and return. At the benefit of a potentially higher return, they can entrust their money to a trader. However this investment is risky, as the trader might not be trustworthy. Alternatively, they can opt for a safe but low return. We study how subjects solve this trade-off when traders are ...
Adaptive wavelet method for pricing two-asset Asian options with floating strike
Černá, Dana
2017-12-01
Asian options are path-dependent option contracts which payoff depends on the average value of the asset price over some period of time. We focus on pricing of Asian options on two assets. The model for pricing these options is represented by a parabolic equation with time variable and three state variables, but using substitution it can be reduced to the equation with only two state variables. For time discretization we use the θ-scheme. We propose a wavelet basis that is adapted to boundary conditions and use an adaptive scheme with this basis for discretization on the given time level. The main advantage of this scheme is small number of degrees of freedom. We present numerical experiments for the Asian put option with floating strike and compare the results for the proposed adaptive method and the Galerkin method.
Using an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio to guide tactical asset allocation
Adrian Saville
2011-01-01
Asset allocation plays a central role in determining investment outcomes, and available evidence shows that portfolio results can be enhanced through tactical asset allocation if managers use the simple price-earnings ratio as a predictor of equity returns. Recently, some international evidence has emerged which shows that, by augmenting the price-earnings metric with information about consumer price inflation, further enhancements can be achieved in tactical asset allocation. This study rev...
Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.
2002-07-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)
Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.
2002-01-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)
Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M
2002-07-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.
2003-01-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPVs) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the weighted average cost of capital and a modern asset pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cashflow components. NPV differences of more than $10 million were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies and could influence tax policy. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model
The Existence of Equilibrium Asset Price Under Diverse Information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Agus Sartono
2005-09-01
Our model shows that the more diverse the information, the higher the lambda coefficient which means the market becomes less liquid. The models consistent with Miller (1977 who found that the bigger the gap of private information is, the less liquid the market will be. If both informed traders have the same information they will demand the same amount of risky asset and it turns out to be similar as in the Kyle (1985 model.
Susanti, Ariska Yuli
2014-01-01
This research aims to classify efficient stocks and inefficient stock using the Capital Asset Pricing Model approach (CAPM), it really helps the investors to make the right investment decisions. The object of research is done in the manufacturing sector shares which are listed in the Stock Exchange 2009-2012 . Based on the research result and the analysis that have been done, it can be seen that from the 11 manufacturing company shares which are used as the research sample, there are two comp...
Skewed Normal Distribution Of Return Assets In Call European Option Pricing
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Evy Sulistianingsih
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Option is one of security derivates. In financial market, option is a contract that gives a right (notthe obligation for its owner to buy or sell a particular asset for a certain price at a certain time.Option can give a guarantee for a risk that can be faced in a market.This paper studies about theuse of Skewed Normal Distribution (SN in call europeanoption pricing. The SN provides aflexible framework that captures the skewness of log return. We obtain aclosed form solution forthe european call option pricing when log return follow the SN. Then, we will compare optionprices that is obtained by the SN and the Black-Scholes model with the option prices of market.Â Keywords: skewed normaldistribution, log return, options.
Monetary Policy and Financial Asset Prices: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
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Imran Umer Chhapra
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism assumed to be significantly influenced by the effect of policy decisions on financial markets. However, various previous studies have come up with different outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of monetary policy on different asset classes (shares and bonds in Pakistan. This study using stock price and bond yield as dependent variable and discount rate, money supply, inflation, and exchange rate are independent variables. Data of all variables have collected from 2010 to 2016, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR technique has applied. The empirical results indicate that there is an impact of monetary policy components on both stock and bond market as an increase in policy rate causes decline in stocks prices and bonds yields. The findings of this study will help the potential investors in making long-term (in general and short-term (in particular investment strategies concerning monetary policy.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099
Heterogeneous traders, price-volume signals, and complex asset price dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank H. Westerhoff
2005-01-01
model reveal that interactions between fundamentalists and chartists may cause intricate endogenous price fluctuations. Contrary to the intuition, we find that chart trading may increase market stability.
"Asset Pricing With Multiplicative Habit and Power-Expo Preferences"
William T. Smith; Qiang Zhang
2006-01-01
Multiplicative habit introduces an additional consumption risk as a determinant of equity premium, and allows time preference and habit strength, in addition to risk aversion, to affect "price of risk". A model combining multiplicative habit and power-expo preferences cannot be rejected.
Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.
2012-01-01
Abstract: We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of passthrough of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong
Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.
2012-01-01
Abstract: We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of pass-through of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong
Using an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio to guide tactical asset allocation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adrian Saville
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Asset allocation plays a central role in determining investment outcomes, and available evidence shows that portfolio results can be enhanced through tactical asset allocation if managers use the simple price-earnings ratio as a predictor of equity returns. Recently, some international evidence has emerged which shows that, by augmenting the price-earnings metric with information about consumer price inflation, further enhancements can be achieved in tactical asset allocation. This study reviews these arguments as they apply to South Africa, and finds that an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio is more successful in forecasting equity returns than is the simple price-earnings ratio. Moreover, the metric is found to be significant in explaining relative asset class returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, however, the tool fails to improve the portfolio results when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.
Using an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio to guide tactical asset allocation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adrian Saville
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Asset allocation plays a central role in determining investment outcomes, and available evidence shows that portfolio results can be enhanced through tactical asset allocation if managers use the simple price-earnings ratio as a predictor of equity returns. Recently, some international evidence has emerged which shows that, by augmenting the price-earnings metric with information about consumer price inflation, further enhancements can be achieved in tactical asset allocation. This study reviews these arguments as they apply to South Africa, and finds that an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio is more successful in forecasting equity returns than is the simple price-earnings ratio. Moreover, the metric is found to be significant in explaining relative asset class returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, however, the tool fails to improve the portfolio results when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.
Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing : Essays over het empirisch prijzen van financiele producten
R.W.M. Verbeek (Roy)
2017-01-01
textabstractThis dissertation consists of three essays on empirical asset pricing. In the first essay, I investigate whether common risk factors are priced across investment horizons. I show that only the market and size factors are priced, but only up to sixteen months. The results highlight the
Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rangvid, Jesper; Schmelling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas
We estimate long-run consumption-based asset pricing models using a comprehensive set of international test assets, including broad equity market portfolios, international value/growth portfolios, and international bond portfolios. We find that differences in returns across assets within a countr...... that consumption growth is more predictable over short to medium-run horizons than over longer horizons and that empirical evidence of a de- clining risk aversion parameter estimate in long-run risk models has to be interpreted with care....... are sometimes (and most prominently for the U.S.) better captured by the assets' exposure to long-run consumption risk as opposed to their exposure to one-period changes in consumption (the canonical consumption CAPM). Across countries, however, exposure to long-run consumption risk does not provide a better...... fit than the canonical consumption CAPM. Thus, when characterizing the cross-country distribution of returns, long-run consumption risk does not seem to play any particular role, even if long-run risk is important for explaining the cross section of expected returns in the U.S. Furthermore, we show...
The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.
Explaining Asset Prices with Low Risk Aversion and Low Intertemporal Substitution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andreasen, Martin Møller; Jørgensen, Kasper
model to explain asset prices with a low relative risk aversion (RRA) of 9.8 and a low intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of 0:11. We also show that the proposed preferences allow an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to match the equity premium, the bond premium, and the risk-free rate......This paper extends the class of Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences with a new utility kernel that disentangles uncertainty about the consumption trend (long-run risk) from short-term variation around this trend (cyclical risk). Our estimation results show that these preferences enable the long-run risk...
Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters
Koulovatianos, Christos; Wieland, Volker
2011-01-01
This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors’ information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs persist for s...
Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing
Hikspoors, Samuel
The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gulnara REJEPOVA
2007-01-01
Full Text Available This article attempts to test the validity of CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model in Turkey by regressing the weekly risk premiums (rj - rf against the beta coefficients of 20 portfolios, each including 10 stocks, over the period of 1995-2004.ISE 100 index and US T-Bill rate, adjusted for the difference between Turkish and US inflation rates were used as the proxies to the market portfolio, and the risk-free rate respectively. Following an in-depth literature survey, Fama and MacBeth (1973, and Pettengil et. al. (1995 approaches were selected as two alternative methods to be used in the research. Research findings based on Fama&MacBeth approach indicated no meaningful relationship between beta coefficients and ex-post risk premiums of the selected portfolios. With Pettengill et al. methodology, on the other hand, strong beta-risk premium relationships were discovered.
Excess co-movement in asset prices: The case of South Africa
Ocran, Mathew; Mlambo, Chipo
2009-01-01
The paper investigates excess co-movement in asset prices in South Africa between 1995 and 2005 using the definition of excess comovement as correlation between two asset prices beyond what could be explained by key economic fundamentals. The results of the study suggest that there is excess co-movement between returns on equities and bonds in South Africa. The findings suggest that there are considerable noise traders on the financial market in South Africa. The result of this behaviour woul...
Empirical Asset Pricing: Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert Shiller
Campbell, John Y.
2016-01-01
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for 2013 was awarded to Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert Shiller for their contributions to the empirical study of asset pricing. Some observers have found it hard to understand the common elements of the laureates research, preferring to highlight areas of disagreement among them. This paper argues that empirical asset pricing is a coherent enterprise, which owes much to the laureates seminal contributions, and that important themes in ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chi Xie
2017-01-01
Full Text Available With the quick development of the Internet, online platforms that provide financial news and opinions have attracted more and more attention from investors. The question whether investor sentiment expressed on the Internet platforms has an impact on asset return has not been fully addressed. To this end, this paper uses the Baidu Searching Index as the agent variable to detect the effect of online investor sentiment on the asset price movement in the Chinese stock market. The empirical study shows that although there is a cointegration relationship between online investor sentiment and asset return, the sentiment has a poor ability to predict the price, return, and volatility of asset price. Meanwhile, the structural break points of online investor sentiment do not lead to changes in the asset price movement. Based on the empirical mode decomposition of online investor sentiment, we find that high frequency components of online investor sentiment can be used to predict the asset price movement. Thus, the obtained results could be useful for risk supervision and asset portfolio management.
Intangible asset valuation, damages, and transfer price analyses in the health care industry.
Reilly, Robert F
2010-01-01
Most health care industry participants own and operate intangible assets. These intangible assets can be industry-specific (e.g., patient charts and records, certificates of need, professional and other licenses), or they can be general commercial intangible assets (e.g., trademarks, systems and procedures, an assembled workforce). Many industry participants have valued their intangible assets for financial accounting or other purposes. This article summarizes the intangible assets that are common to health care industry participants. This article describes the different types of intangible asset analyses (including valuation, transfer price, damages estimates, etc.), and explains the many different transaction, accounting, taxation, regulatory, litigation, and other reasons why industry participants may wish to value (or otherwise analyze) health care intangible assets.
Customer perspectives on district heating price models
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Kerstin Sernhed
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In Sweden there has been a move towards more cost reflective price models for district heating in order to reduce economic risks that comes with variable heat demand and high shares of fixed assets. The keywords in the new price models are higher shares of fixed cost, seasonal energy prices and charging for capacity. Also components that are meant to serve as incentives to affect behaviour are introduced, for example peak load components and flow components. In this study customer responses to these more complex price models have been investigated through focus group interviews and through interviews with companies that have changed their price models. The results show that several important customer requirements are suffering with the new price models. The most important ones are when energy savings do not provide financial savings, when costs are hard to predict and are perceived to be out of control.
Internet resource pricing models
Xu, Ke; He, Huan
2013-01-01
This brief guides the reader through three basic Internet resource pricing models using an Internet cost analysis. Addressing the evolution of service types, it presents several corresponding mechanisms which can ensure pricing implementation and resource allocation. The authors discuss utility optimization of network pricing methods in economics and underline two classes of pricing methods including system optimization and entities' strategic optimization. The brief closes with two examples of the newly proposed pricing strategy helping to solve the profit distribution problem brought by P2P
Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models
Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph
2012-01-01
Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...
Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin
2016-01-01
We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China's stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank's policymaking.
CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing
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Wanwan Huang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.
Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models
van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.; Genest, C.; Werker, B.J.M.
2003-01-01
This paper examines the behavior of multivariate option prices in the presence of association between the underlying assets.Parametric families of copulas offering various alternatives to the normal dependence structure are used to model this association, which is explicitly assumed to vary over
Higher-order co-moments in asset pricing on the stock exchange in Brazil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paulo Vitor Jordão da Gama Silva
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This study seeks to identify the behavior of systemic asymmetry (coskewness and systemic kurtosis (cokurtosis in asset pricing on the Brazilian stock exchange (in BM&F Bovespa. The methodology explored by Harvey and Siddique (2000 was used to estimate the degree of coskewness and cokurtosis for stocks in each month t, following the CAPM regression. The three-factor model was used according to Fama and French (1993, with modifications to the calculation of the factors following the methodology exploited by Neves (2003. The results show that for the Brazilian market, assets with negative coskewness and cokurtosis tend to yield more than assets with positive coskewness and cokurtosis. According to observations in the American and London markets, as investors expect higher returns for the high risk, a preference was found for negative coskewness and positive cokurtosis. In Brazil, it was found that in the case of coskewness, it repeats itself, but not for cokurtosis, where the reverse is true, which can lead to the conclusion of a typically risk-averse behavior.
Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen
2007-01-01
We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)
THE ASSET PRICE CHANNEL AND ITS ROLE IN MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION
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Dan Horatiu
2013-07-01
Full Text Available his paper addresses the subject of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by focusing on the asset price channel, which is the monetary transmission channel responsible for the propagation of the effects induced by the monetary policy decisions made by the central bank that affect the price of assets. We will analyze the asset price channel by taking a close look at its structure, internal processes and the way it delivers monetary policy throughout the economy, ultimately influencing key variables such as the unemployment rate and the levels of consumption and production. After an introduction dealing with the entire monetary transmission mechanism, its role and purposes, we will focus on the particularities of the asset price channel and the two main ways in which it delivers monetary policy decision effects: through changes in Tobin’s q value, which is the ratio between the market value of a given company and its replacement cost of capital, and through the effect of wealth, both of financial and housing nature, on consumption. In our study, we will consider theoretical aspects and observations, but also empirical evidence that highlights that the exact way in which the asset price channel functions may differ from one economy to another due to differences in the structures of the respective economies and differences in psychology and cultural values of consumers. The deep understanding of the asset price transmission channel is very important for any central bank, as this is the channel that governs key aspects of monetary policy transmission linked to the market value of assets and individual wealth. These values have, as we will see in more detail throughout the paper, an important impact on both consumption and investment, two economic actions that can help the economy, but can also prove to be a crucial element in starting and perpetuating an economic crisis.
The pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays
Lin, Lisha; Li, Yaqiong; Wu, Jing
2018-04-01
In the paper, the pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays is discussed. By using the approach of equivalent martingale measure transformation, the market is proved to be complete. With exchange option as a particular example, we obtain the explicit pricing formula in a subinterval of option period. The robust Euler-Maruyama method is combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to compute exchange option prices within the whole option period. Numerical experiments indicate that there is an increasing possibility of the difference between the delayed and Black-Scholes option prices with the increase of delay.
THE BUSINESS MODEL AND FINANCIAL ASSETS MEASUREMENT
NICULA Ileana
2012-01-01
The paper work analyses some aspects regarding the implementation of IFRS 9, the relationship between the business model approach and the assets classification and measurement. It does not discuss the cash flows characteristics, another important aspect of assets classification, or the reclassifications. The business model is related to some characteristics of the banks (opaqueness, leverage ratio, compliance to capital, sound liquidity requirements and risk management) and to Special Purpose...
Imperfect Knowledge, Asset Price Swings, and Structural Slumps
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juselius, Katarina
2013-01-01
emphasizes real interest rates and real exchange rates as potentially important determinants underlying the persistent fluctuations in aggregate activities, and the latter provides the conditions under which speculative behavior in currency markets generates such persistence. The paper argues that by combing...... the two theories we can shed new light on the two-way interdependence between persistent swings in asset markets and persistent fluctuations in the real economy. In particular, we may improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind the long recurrent spells of high unemployment that continue to mar our...
Intangible liabilities: beyond models of intellectual assets
García Parra, Mercedes; Simó Guzmán, Pep; Sallán Leyes, José María; Mundet Hiern, Joan
2009-01-01
Purpose – Most models of intellectual capital measurment equal intellectual capital with intellectual assets. Nevertheless, companies sometimes must incur liabilities to make intellectual assets truly actionable. This fact suggests the existence of intangible liabilities. The aim of this paper is to refine the methods of assessment of intellectual capital by refining and extending the concept of intangible liabilities. Design/methodology/approach – The paper consists of a literature revi...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reza Rostami
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Systematic risk (beta is one of the most effective factors in predicting the appropriate required rate of return of portfolios. Understanding systematic risk of usual portfolio of various companies helps investors consider financial investment, more confidentially. The aim of this study is to determine if there is any significant relationship between Company Size (Market value of stocks, Book value of stocks, level of company sale, trade volume of stocks, Price dividend ratio as independent variables and Systematic risk (Beta as dependent variables. The study chooses 112 companies accepted in Tehran Stock Market based on screening (systematic deletion in a six-year- period from 2005 to 2010. The required data were gathered from basic financial statement, committee reports, and other available documents in Tehran Stock Market. Regression and Pearson correlation were used to analyze the data. The results of the study revealed that there is a significant relationship between the variables. Some suggestions regarding the topic of the research are given too.
26 CFR 1.338-4 - Aggregate deemed sale price; various aspects of taxation of the deemed asset sale.
2010-04-01
... 26 Internal Revenue 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Aggregate deemed sale price; various aspects of taxation of the deemed asset sale. 1.338-4 Section 1.338-4 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Aggregate deemed sale price; various aspects of taxation of the deemed asset sale. (a) Scope. This section...
Ambiguity Aversion, Asset Prices, and the Welfare Costs of Aggregate Fluctuations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Alonso, Irasema; Prado, Mauricio
2015-01-01
with a representative agent facing consumption fluctuations calibrated to match U.S. data from 1889 to 2008. Our experiment is to restrict preference parameters in order to as well as possible match some asset-price facts—the average returns on equity and a short-term risk-free bond—and then compute the welfare...
Real Implications of Bursting Asset Price Bubbles in Economies with Bank Credit
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Derviz, Alexis
2011-01-01
Roč. 61, č. 1 (2011), s. 92-116 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : bank * credit * asset price * bubble * macroprudential policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2011
Fabozzi, F.; Vink, D.
2012-01-01
In this paper, we empirically investigate what credit factors investors rely upon when pricing the spread at issue for European asset-backed securities. More specifically, we investigate how credit factors affect new issuance spreads after taking into account credit rating. We do so by investigating
Was Bernanke right? Targeting asset prices may not be a good idea after all
Assenza, T.; Berardi, M.; Delli Gatti, D.
2011-01-01
Should the central bank prevent "excessive" asset price dynamics or should it wait until the boom spontaneously turns into a crash and intervene only afterwards? The debate over this issue goes back at least to the exchange between Bernanke-Gertler (BG) and Cecchetti but has not settled yet. In
An asset pricing approach to liquidity effects in corporate bond markets
Bongaerts, Dion; de Jong, Frank; Driessen, Joost
We use an asset pricing approach to compare the effects of expected liquidity and liquidity risk on expected U.S. corporate bond returns. Liquidity measures are constructed for bond portfolios using a Bayesian approach to estimate Roll’s measure. The results show that expected bond liquidity and
Ontology modeling in physical asset integrity management
Yacout, Soumaya
2015-01-01
This book presents cutting-edge applications of, and up-to-date research on, ontology engineering techniques in the physical asset integrity domain. Though a survey of state-of-the-art theory and methods on ontology engineering, the authors emphasize essential topics including data integration modeling, knowledge representation, and semantic interpretation. The book also reflects novel topics dealing with the advanced problems of physical asset integrity applications such as heterogeneity, data inconsistency, and interoperability existing in design and utilization. With a distinctive focus on applications relevant in heavy industry, Ontology Modeling in Physical Asset Integrity Management is ideal for practicing industrial and mechanical engineers working in the field, as well as researchers and graduate concerned with ontology engineering in physical systems life cycles. This book also: Introduces practicing engineers, research scientists, and graduate students to ontology engineering as a modeling techniqu...
Back to the Future Betas: Empirical Asset Pricing of US and Southeast Asian Markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jordan French
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The study adds an empirical outlook on the predicting power of using data from the future to predict future returns. The crux of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM methodology is using historical data in the calculation of the beta coefficient. This study instead uses a battery of Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH models, of differing lag and parameter terms, to forecast the variance of the market used in the denominator of the beta formula. The covariance of the portfolio and market returns are assumed to remain constant in the time-varying beta calculations. The data spans from 3 January 2005 to 29 December 2014. One ten-year, two five-year, and three three-year sample periods were used, for robustness, with ten different portfolios. Out of sample forecasts, mean absolute error (MAE and mean squared forecast error (MSE were used to compare the forecasting ability of the ex-ante GARCH models, Artificial Neural Network, and the standard market ex-post model. Find that the time-varying MGARCH and SGARCH beta performed better with out-of-sample testing than the other ex-ante models. Although the simplest approach, constant ex-post beta, performed as well or better within this empirical study.
Modelling the Costs of Preserving Digital Assets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad; Nielsen, Anders Bo; Thirifays, Alex
2012-01-01
Information is increasingly being produced in digital form, and some of it must be preserved for the longterm. Digital preservation includes a series of actively managed activities that require on-going funding. To obtain sufficient resources, there is a need for assessing the costs...... and the benefits accrued by preserving the assets. Cost data is also needed for optimizing activities and comparing the costs of different preservation alternatives. The purpose of this study is to analyse generic requirements for modelling the cost of preserving digital assets. The analysis was based...
Asset pricing puzzles explained by incomplete Brownian equilibria
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Peter Ove; Larsen, Kasper
We examine a class of Brownian based models which produce tractable incomplete equilibria. The models are based on finitely many investors with heterogeneous exponential utilities over intermediate consumption who receive partially unspanned income. The investors can trade continuously on a finit...... markets. Consequently, our model can simultaneously help explaining the risk-free rate and equity premium puzzles....
Dynamic Relationships between Price and Net Asset Value for Asian Real Estate Stocks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kim Hiang LIOW
2018-03-01
Full Text Available This paper examines short- and long-term behavior of the price-to net asset value ratio in six Asian public real estate markets. We find mean-reverting behavior of the ratio and spillover effects, where each of the examined public real estate markets correlates with other markets. Additionally, the unexpected shock correlating with the price-to-net asset value ratio in one market has a positive or negative correlation with the ratios of other markets. Our results offer fresh insights to portfolio managers, policymakers, and academic researchers into the regional and country market dynamics of public real estate valuation and cross-country interaction from the long-term and short-term perspectives.
Stochastic Dominance in Portfolio Analysis and Asset Pricing
A.M. Lizyayev (Andrey)
2010-01-01
textabstractStochastic Dominance relation is a probabilistic concept which allows random outcomes such as portfolio returns to be ranked, by utilizing the full information about the distribution of the returns, in contrast to the mean-variance rule or other mean-risk models which only use a single
Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dieci, Roberto; Foroni, Ilaria; Gardini, Laura; He Xuezhong
2006-01-01
Empirical evidence has suggested that, facing different trading strategies and complicated decision, the proportions of agents relying on particular strategies may stay at constant level or vary over time. This paper presents a simple 'dynamic market fraction' model of two groups of traders, fundamentalists and trend followers, under a market maker scenario. Market mood and evolutionary adaption are characterized by fixed and adaptive switching fraction among two groups, respectively. Using local stability and bifurcation analysis, as well as numerical simulation, the role played by the key parameters in the market behaviour is examined. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the market fraction, determined by the fixed proportions of confident fundamentalists and trend followers, and by the proportion of adaptively rational agents, who adopt different strategies over time depending on realized profits
Financier-led asset lease model
Zhao, X.; Angelov, S.A.; Grefen, P.W.P.J.; Meersman, R.A.; Dillon, T.S.
2010-01-01
Nowadays, the business globalisation trend drives organisations to spread their business worldwide, which in turn generates vast asset demands. In this context, broader asset channels and higher financial capacities are required to boost the asset lease sector to meet the increasing asset demands
A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing
S. G. Kou
2002-01-01
Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the Black--Scholes option-pricing framework to model the return of assets. However, two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations: the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two (asymmetric) heavier tails than those of the normal distribution, and an empirical phenomenon called "volatility smile" in option markets. To incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between ...
A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kokholm, Thomas
to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...
A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas
2013-01-01
to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...
Nonlinear price impact from linear models
Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe
2017-12-01
The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators, and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all intra-day scales (Patzelt and Bouchaud 2017 arXiv:1706.04163). Here we investigate how well these curves, their scaling, and the underlying return dynamics are captured by linear ‘propagator’ models. We find that the classification of trades as price-changing versus non-price-changing can explain the price impact nonlinearities and short-term return dynamics to a very high degree. The explanatory power provided by the change indicator in addition to the order sign history increases with increasing tick size. To obtain these results, several long-standing technical issues for model calibration and testing are addressed. We present new spectral estimators for two- and three-point cross-correlations, removing the need for previously used approximations. We also show when calibration is unbiased and how to accurately reveal previously overlooked biases. Therefore, our results contribute significantly to understanding both recent empirical results and the properties of a popular class of impact models.
Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin
2016-01-01
We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China’s stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank’s policymaking. PMID:27851796
Rypdal, Martin; Sirnes, Espen; Løvsletten, Ola; Rypdal, Kristoffer
2013-08-01
Maximum likelihood estimation techniques for multifractal processes are applied to high-frequency data in order to quantify intermittency in the fluctuations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency parameter λ characterising the degree of volatility clustering. We can therefore study the time evolution of volatility clustering and test the statistical significance of this variability. By analysing data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, and comparing the results with the investment grade spread, we find that the estimates of λ are lower at times of high market uncertainty.
A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leda D. Minkova
1996-01-01
Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sayed H. Saghaian
2014-04-01
Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the effects of the recent Federal Reserve’s purchases of longterm assets on prices of agricultural commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases began at the end of 2008, after the Great Recession, and the second purchases began in November of 2010. The commodities included in this analysis are meats (beef, pork, and broilers, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice, and softs (sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton. Using historical decompositions, we find significant increases in the nominal agricultural prices of ten out of 12 agricultural commodities under investigation from the second large-scale asset purchases (in 2010 but the first set large-scale asset purchases had only two positive effects.
Grøm, Halvdan Alexander
2013-01-01
In this thesis I have analysed the relationship between renewable energy stocks and the price of crude oil. As a part of my analysis I have provided a basic economic overview of the research period and how the value of renewable energy stocks and crude oil is determined. In order to analyse this relationship I have utilized a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) in addition to a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). My findings indicate that the aforementioned assets follow a simi...
Steam generator asset management model application
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pop, M. G.; Shoemaker, P.; Colgan, K.; Griffith, J.
2008-01-01
An advanced economic model in SG Asset Management, called B-Factor Methodology Tool, was developed by AREVA NP (Patent Pending), and used during the summer of 2006. The Tool allowed prediction of the future cost for a selected combination of mitigation techniques at a utility, while considering the tube deposit evolution and its effects on their particular SGs. The Tool, which was presented in its basic theoretical form at the ICAPP Meeting in Nice in 2007, has been greatly improved and was applied again at the end of 2007 at another utility. The elements of the B-Factor Methodology are the annual and cumulative net present value, and the annual escalated direct and indirect costs/benefits. All these are relative to a base case for a selected combination of mitigation techniques, considering the tube deposit evolution and its effects on the SG tubing area and SG pressure losses and ultimately on the plant power production. This paper will present the actual progress made in improving the Tool during 2007 so that it successfully predicts the optimum combination of various SG maintenance activities for any given utility. Simulated results of the operation of the B-Factor Methodology Tool for a complex scenario of Asset Management reasoning are also presented. (authors)
Assets. Biological Assets. The Seasonal Model in Agriculture
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Atanasiu Pop
2008-07-01
Full Text Available In order to support the agricultural exploitation we tried in this paper to develop a model that involves a seasonal component at entity’s level. Consequently, we made a study to an exploitation acting in the vegetal field by collecting accounting informations from the data base entity and by informations that were processed using different statistical functions. So, through the proposed model we try to make certain previsions taking into account the economic situation in which the agricultural exploitation works.
Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chang Xiao
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.
Integrated Space Asset Management Database and Modeling
MacLeod, Todd; Gagliano, Larry; Percy, Thomas; Mason, Shane
2015-01-01
Effective Space Asset Management is one key to addressing the ever-growing issue of space congestion. It is imperative that agencies around the world have access to data regarding the numerous active assets and pieces of space junk currently tracked in orbit around the Earth. At the center of this issues is the effective management of data of many types related to orbiting objects. As the population of tracked objects grows, so too should the data management structure used to catalog technical specifications, orbital information, and metadata related to those populations. Marshall Space Flight Center's Space Asset Management Database (SAM-D) was implemented in order to effectively catalog a broad set of data related to known objects in space by ingesting information from a variety of database and processing that data into useful technical information. Using the universal NORAD number as a unique identifier, the SAM-D processes two-line element data into orbital characteristics and cross-references this technical data with metadata related to functional status, country of ownership, and application category. The SAM-D began as an Excel spreadsheet and was later upgraded to an Access database. While SAM-D performs its task very well, it is limited by its current platform and is not available outside of the local user base. Further, while modeling and simulation can be powerful tools to exploit the information contained in SAM-D, the current system does not allow proper integration options for combining the data with both legacy and new M&S tools. This paper provides a summary of SAM-D development efforts to date and outlines a proposed data management infrastructure that extends SAM-D to support the larger data sets to be generated. A service-oriented architecture model using an information sharing platform named SIMON will allow it to easily expand to incorporate new capabilities, including advanced analytics, M&S tools, fusion techniques and user interface for
Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets
Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio
2015-01-01
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.
Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Assets Management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garleanu, Nicolae; Heje Pedersen, Lasse
We consider a model where investors can invest directly or search for an asset manager, information about assets is costly, and managers charge an endogenous fee. The efficiency of asset prices is linked to the efficiency of the asset management market: if investors can find managers more easily......, more money is allocated to active management, fees are lower, and asset prices are more efficient. Informed managers outperform after fees, uninformed managers underperform after fees, and the net performance of the average manager depends on the number of "noise allocators." Finally, we show why large...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
An Chen
2015-03-01
Full Text Available This paper compares two different types of private retirement plans from the perspective of a representative beneficiary: a defined benefit (DB and a defined contribution (DC plan. While salary risk is the main common risk factor in DB and DC pension plans, one of the key differences is that DB plans carry portability risks, whereas DC plans bear asset price risk. We model these tradeoffs explicitly in this paper and compare these two plans in a utility-based framework. Our numerical analysis focuses on answering the question of when the beneficiary is indifferent between the DB and DC plan. Most of our results confirm the findings in the existing literature, among which, e.g., portability losses considerably reduce the relative attractiveness of the DB plan. However, we also find that the attractiveness of the DB plan can decrease in the level of risk aversion, which is inconsistent with the existing literature.
Asset life and pricing the use of electricity transmission infrastructure in Chile
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raineri, Ricardo
2010-01-01
Beyond the different approaches to set regulated prices for the use of infrastructure, a key parameter to determine regulated tariffs is the concept of asset life and how it changes with changes in the economic and regulatory context, which determines the optimal infrastructure investment and replacement policies. In this paper we look at the effects that changes in demand, the presence of substitutes and complements, the regulatory framework - both a pro or an anticompetitive framework -, scale economies, and the investment planning horizon, have on the economic service life of an asset and the tariffs for its use. We find that as the electric industry becomes more competitive, a negative effect on the economic service life of electric electricity transmission should be expected. Also, numerical experiments illustrate an inverse relation between scale economies on investment and the ESL of electricity transmission infrastructure. Further, we look at the biases on optimal investment that happen when optimal plans do not observe the life cycle of the investments and the ESL of the equipment, as well as the inconsistency and biases on optimal investment and replacement policies that might result when the Social Planner optimal investment plan lacks of a long-term commitment. (author)
Asset life and pricing the use of electricity transmission infrastructure in Chile
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Raineri, Ricardo [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile)
2010-01-15
Beyond the different approaches to set regulated prices for the use of infrastructure, a key parameter to determine regulated tariffs is the concept of asset life and how it changes with changes in the economic and regulatory context, which determines the optimal infrastructure investment and replacement policies. In this paper we look at the effects that changes in demand, the presence of substitutes and complements, the regulatory framework - both a pro or an anticompetitive framework -, scale economies, and the investment planning horizon, have on the economic service life of an asset and the tariffs for its use. We find that as the electric industry becomes more competitive, a negative effect on the economic service life of electric electricity transmission should be expected. Also, numerical experiments illustrate an inverse relation between scale economies on investment and the ESL of electricity transmission infrastructure. Further, we look at the biases on optimal investment that happen when optimal plans do not observe the life cycle of the investments and the ESL of the equipment, as well as the inconsistency and biases on optimal investment and replacement policies that might result when the Social Planner optimal investment plan lacks of a long-term commitment. (author)
Ising model of financial markets with many assets
Eckrot, A.; Jurczyk, J.; Morgenstern, I.
2016-11-01
Many models of financial markets exist, but most of them simulate single asset markets. We study a multi asset Ising model of a financial market. Each agent has two possible actions (buy/sell) for every asset. The agents dynamically adjust their coupling coefficients according to past market returns and external news. This leads to fat tails and volatility clustering independent of the number of assets. We find that a separation of news into different channels leads to sector structures in the cross correlations, similar to those found in real markets.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Meelis Angerma
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Developments in the real world depends on human reaction to economic events which is also determined by dominating economic thought. Dominance of neoliberal and monetarist thinking was the main cause of ignoring asset price bubbles and their effects on real economy. New keynesian economic thinking provides an alternative. Hyman Minsky’s model of financial instability was more effectively able to explain super-bubbles in US economy and subsequent ‚Great Recession’. Ignorance of momentum-bias of traders and banks contributed to this crises. Emerging markets and Baltic countries were strongly influenced by credit oversupply in US. Instabilities were so sizeable that IMF approved using capital control and proposal for tax on financial transactions was made. Policymakers and individuals should abandon ignorance of speculative asset price bubbles and improve their analytical skills to recognize bubbles and change their behaviour
A Model for Resource Allocation Using Operational Knowledge Assets
Andreou, Andreas N.; Bontis, Nick
2007-01-01
Purpose: The paper seeks to develop a business model that shows the impact of operational knowledge assets on intellectual capital (IC) components and business performance and use the model to show how knowledge assets can be prioritized in driving resource allocation decisions. Design/methodology/approach: Quantitative data were collected from 84…
A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas
observed properties of variance swap dynamics and allows for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using L´evy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for options on variance swaps as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European......We propose and study a flexible modeling framework for the joint dynamics of an index and a set of forward variance swap rates written on this index, allowing options on forward variance swaps and options on the underlying index to be priced consistently. Our model reproduces various empirically...... options on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options...
Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Botterud, Audun [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
2017-11-29
We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Burtnyak Ivan V.
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In the paper we apply the spectral theory to find the price for derivatives of financial assets assuming that the processes described are Markov processes and such that can be considered in the Hilbert space L^2 using the Sturm-Liouville theory. Bessel diffusion processes are used in studying Asian options. We consider the financial flows generated by the Bessel diffusions by expressing them in terms of the system of Bessel functions of the first kind, provided that they take into account the linear combination of the flow and its spatial derivative. Such expression enables calculating the size of the market portfolio and provides a measure of the amount of internal volatility in the market at any given moment, allows investigating the dynamics of the equity market. The expansion of the Green function in terms of the system of Bessel functions is expressed by an analytic formula that is convenient in calculating the volume of financial flows. All assumptions are natural, result in analytic formulas that are consistent with the empirical data and, when applied in practice, adequately reflect the processes in equity markets.
Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices
P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)
2010-01-01
textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the
A tree-based method to price American options in the Heston model
Vellekoop, M.; Nieuwenhuis, H.
2009-01-01
We develop an algorithm to price American options on assets that follow the stochastic volatility model defined by Heston. We use an approach which is based on a modification of a combined tree for stock prices and volatilities, where the number of nodes grows quadratically in the number of time
Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana
2016-01-01
Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.
Return models and dynamic asset allocation strategies
Shi, Wyanet Wen
2017-01-01
This thesis studies the design of optimal investment strategies. A strategy is considered optimal when it minimizes the variance of terminal portfolio wealth for a given level of expected terminal portfolio wealth, or equivalently, maximizes an investor's utility. We study this issue in two particular situations: when asset returns follow a continuous-time path-independent process, and when they follow a discrete-time path-dependent process. Continuous-time path-independent return mode...
The quotient of normal random variables and application to asset price fat tails
Caginalp, Carey; Caginalp, Gunduz
2018-06-01
The quotient of random variables with normal distributions is examined and proven to have power law decay, with density f(x) ≃f0x-2, with the coefficient depending on the means and variances of the numerator and denominator and their correlation. We also obtain the conditional probability densities for each of the four quadrants given by the signs of the numerator and denominator for arbitrary correlation ρ ∈ [ - 1 , 1) . For ρ = - 1 we obtain a particularly simple closed form solution for all x ∈ R. The results are applied to a basic issue in economics and finance, namely the density of relative price changes. Classical finance stipulates a normal distribution of relative price changes, though empirical studies suggest a power law at the tail end. By considering the supply and demand in a basic price change model, we prove that the relative price change has density that decays with an x-2 power law. Various parameter limits are established.
Robert Gallagher; Niall O’ Sullivan
2011-01-01
This paper contributes to the behavioural finance literature that examines the asset pricing impact of mood altering events such as sports results, sunshine levels, daylight hours, public holidays, temperature etc. Specifically, we investigate whether variations in investor mood arising from wins and losses in major sporting events have an impact on stock market returns. We examine the case of Ireland. Ireland is an interesting case because its people are passionate about sport, the domestic ...
Model Calibration in Option Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre Loerx
2012-04-01
Full Text Available We consider calibration problems for models of pricing derivatives which occur in mathematical finance. We discuss various approaches such as using stochastic differential equations or partial differential equations for the modeling process. We discuss the development in the past literature and give an outlook into modern approaches of modelling. Furthermore, we address important numerical issues in the valuation of options and likewise the calibration of these models. This leads to interesting problems in optimization, where, e.g., the use of adjoint equations or the choice of the parametrization for the model parameters play an important role.
Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema
2010-01-01
The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)
Ochiai, T.; Nacher, J. C.
2011-09-01
The prices of financial products in markets are determined by the behavior of investors, who are influenced by positive and negative news. Here, we present a mathematical model to reproduce the price movements in real financial markets affected by news. The model has both positive and negative feed-back mechanisms. Furthermore, the behavior of the model is examined by considering two types of noise. Our results show that the dynamic balance of positive and negative feed-back mechanisms with the noise effect determines the asset price movement.
Inflation risk and international asset returns
G.A. Moerman (Gerard); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)
2010-01-01
textabstractWe show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the
Integrated Space Asset Management Database and Modeling
Gagliano, L.; MacLeod, T.; Mason, S.; Percy, T.; Prescott, J.
The Space Asset Management Database (SAM-D) was implemented in order to effectively track known objects in space by ingesting information from a variety of databases and performing calculations to determine the expected position of the object at a specified time. While SAM-D performs this task very well, it is limited by technology and is not available outside of the local user base. Modeling and simulation can be powerful tools to exploit the information contained in SAM-D. However, the current system does not allow proper integration options for combining the data with both legacy and new M&S tools. A more capable data management infrastructure would extend SAM-D to support the larger data sets to be generated by the COI. A service-oriented architecture model will allow it to easily expand to incorporate new capabilities, including advanced analytics, M&S tools, fusion techniques and user interface for visualizations. Based on a web-centric approach, the entire COI will be able to access the data and related analytics. In addition, tight control of information sharing policy will increase confidence in the system, which would encourage industry partners to provide commercial data. SIMON is a Government off the Shelf information sharing platform in use throughout DoD and DHS information sharing and situation awareness communities. SIMON providing fine grained control to data owners allowing them to determine exactly how and when their data is shared. SIMON supports a micro-service approach to system development, meaning M&S and analytic services can be easily built or adapted. It is uniquely positioned to fill this need as an information-sharing platform with a proven track record of successful situational awareness system deployments. Combined with the integration of new and legacy M&S tools, a SIMON-based architecture will provide a robust SA environment for the NASA SA COI that can be extended and expanded indefinitely. First Results of Coherent Uplink from a
An Overview of Intellectual Property and Intangible Asset Valuation Models
Matsuura, Jeffrey H.
2004-01-01
This paper reviews the economic models most commonly applied to estimate the value of intellectual property and other forms of intangible assets. It highlights the key strengths and weaknesses of these models. One of the apparent weaknesses of the most commonly used valuation models is the failure to incorporate legal rights into their…
Oil transformation sector modelling: price interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maurer, A.
1992-01-01
A global oil and oil product prices evolution model is proposed that covers the transformation sector incidence and the final user price establishment together with price interactions between gaseous and liquid hydrocarbons. High disparities among oil product prices in the various consumer zones (North America, Western Europe, Japan) are well described and compared with the low differences between oil supply prices in these zones. Final user price fluctuations are shown to be induced by transformation differences and competition; natural gas market is also modelled
Laplace transform analysis of a multiplicative asset transfer model
Sokolov, Andrey; Melatos, Andrew; Kieu, Tien
2010-07-01
We analyze a simple asset transfer model in which the transfer amount is a fixed fraction f of the giver’s wealth. The model is analyzed in a new way by Laplace transforming the master equation, solving it analytically and numerically for the steady-state distribution, and exploring the solutions for various values of f∈(0,1). The Laplace transform analysis is superior to agent-based simulations as it does not depend on the number of agents, enabling us to study entropy and inequality in regimes that are costly to address with simulations. We demonstrate that Boltzmann entropy is not a suitable (e.g. non-monotonic) measure of disorder in a multiplicative asset transfer system and suggest an asymmetric stochastic process that is equivalent to the asset transfer model.
Transfer Pricing and Intangible Assets in Cross-Border Business Restructurings
Pätäri, Heidi Maria
2012-01-01
Transfer pricing can be described as the internal price setting between multinational group companies. In recent years the issue of jurisdiction’s tax revenue flowing out of the jurisdiction has been closely related with transfer pricing and the tax authorities all over the world have increasingly began to question the arm’s length nature of the intra-group transactions of multinational enterprises. In this thesis the focus is on the transfer pricing issues arising in situations w...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Charles P. Kindleberger
2009-12-01
Full Text Available L’inflazione degli asset, a differenza dell’inflazione ordinaria, che si riferisce a l'aumento dei prezzi dei beni di consumo, merci all'ingrosso, o il deflatore del reddito nazionale, è un termine che non è in uso in occidente, ma corrente in Giappone. Ci sono momenti in cui gli assets aumenteranno di prezzo in modo inflazionistico, un boom o anche una bolla, mentre i prezzi dell’output sono relativamente stabili o addirittura in calo. Asset inflation, as distinguished from ordinary inflation, the latter referring to rising prices of consumer goods, wholesale commodities, or the national-income deflator, is a phrase not in use in the west, but current in Japan. There are times when assets rise in price in an inflationary way, a boom or even a bubble, while output prices are relatively stable or even declining. JEL Codes: F3, G1, N1, B5
Asymptotic approach to the pricing of geometric asian options under the CEV model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Min-Ku
2016-01-01
This paper studies the pricing of Asian options whose payoffs depend on the average value of an underlying asset during the period to a maturity. Since the Asian option is not so sensitive to the value of underlying asset, the possibility of manipulation is relatively small than the other options such as European vanilla and barrier options. We derive the pricing formula of geometric Asian options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model that is one of local volatility models, and investigate the implication of the CEV model for geometric Asian options.
Retrading, production, and asset market performance.
Gjerstad, Steven D; Porter, David; Smith, Vernon L; Winn, Abel
2015-11-24
Prior studies have shown that traders quickly converge to the price-quantity equilibrium in markets for goods that are immediately consumed, but they produce speculative price bubbles in resalable asset markets. We present a stock-flow model of durable assets in which the existing stock of assets is subject to depreciation and producers may produce additional units of the asset. In our laboratory experiments inexperienced consumers who can resell their units disregard the consumption value of the assets and compete vigorously with producers, depressing prices and production. Consumers who have first participated in experiments without resale learn to heed their consumption values and, when they are given the option to resell, trade at equilibrium prices. Reproducibility is therefore the most natural and most effective treatment for suppression of bubbles in asset market experiments.
An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knittel, C.R.; Roberts, M.R.
2005-01-01
We present an empirical analysis of restructured electricity prices. We study the distributional and temporal properties of the price process in a non-parametric framework, after which we parametrically model the price process using several common asset price specifications from the asset-pricing literature, as well as several less conventional models motivated by the peculiarities of electricity prices. The findings reveal several characteristics unique to electricity prices including several deterministic components of the price series at different frequencies. An 'inverse leverage effect' is also found, where positive shocks to the price series result in larger increases in volatility than negative shocks. We find that forecasting performance in dramatically improved when we incorporate features of electricity prices not commonly modelled in other asset prices. Our findings have implications for how empiricists model electricity prices, as well as how theorists specify models of energy pricing. (author)
Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane
2017-01-01
In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.
A PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR PHYSICAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J.L. Jooste
2012-01-01
Full Text Available
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: There has been an emphasis shift from maintenance management towards asset management, where the focus is on reliable and operational equipment and on effective assets at optimum life-cycle costs. A challenge in the manufacturing industry is to develop an asset performance management model that is integrated with business processes and strategies. The authors developed the APM2 model to satisfy that requirement. The model has a generic reference structure and is supported by operational protocols to assist in operations management. It facilitates performance measurement, business integration and continuous improvement, whilst exposing industry to the latest developments in asset performance management.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Daar is ‘n klemverskuiwing vanaf onderhoudsbestuur na batebestuur, waar daar gefokus word op betroubare en operasionele toerusting, asook effektiewe bates teen optimum lewensikluskoste. ‘n Uitdaging in die vervaardigingsindustrie is die ontwikkeling van ‘n prestasiemodel vir bates, wat geïntegreer is met besigheidsprosesse en –strategieë. Die outeurs het die APM2 model ontwikkel om in hierdie behoefte te voorsien. Die model het ‘n generiese verwysingsstruktuur, wat ondersteun word deur operasionele instruksies wat operasionele bestuur bevorder. Dit fasiliteer prestasiebestuur, besigheidsintegrasie en voortdurende verbetering, terwyl dit die industrie ook blootstel aan die nuutste ontwikkelinge in prestasiebestuur van bates.
Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons
Beber, A.; Driessen, J.; Tuijp, P.F.A.
2012-01-01
We develop a new asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogenous horizons. Short-term investors hold only liquid assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation effects in the pricing of liquid versus illiquid assets. Specifically, the liquidity (risk) premia
Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lorella Fatone
2012-01-01
model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.
Space-time modeling of timber prices
Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno
2006-01-01
A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dionigi Gerace
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Despite the capital asset pricing model being one of the most inﬂuential mod¬els in modern portfolio theory, it has also been a victim of criticism in numerous academic papers. Its assumptions which seem to be rather unre¬alistic, have caused many academics to improve the model by relaxing some of its restrictive statements. In this journal article, we compare the performance of an optimal portfolio of securities in the Australian securities market by constructing two theoretical portfolios; one using the capital asset pricing model which uses a single beta throughout a static investment horizon; and another, which allows the op¬timal portfolio to be rebalanced each week with an adjusted beta. The performance of the two theoretical portfolios is compared to determine the superior model. Overall, findings showed that due to rebalancing of the portfolio, the multiple period model was the superior model based on before and after transaction cost returns.
SaaS architecture and pricing models
Laatikainen, Gabriella; Ojala, Arto
2014-01-01
In the new era of computing, SaaS software with different architectural characteristics might be priced in different ways. Even though both pricing and architectural characteristics are responsible for the success of the offering; the relationship between architectural and pricing characteristics has not been studied before. The present study fills this gap by employing a multi-case research. The findings accentuate that flexible and well-designed architecture enables different pricing models...
The Shuttle Cost and Price model
Leary, Katherine; Stone, Barbara
1983-01-01
The Shuttle Cost and Price (SCP) model was developed as a tool to assist in evaluating major aspects of Shuttle operations that have direct and indirect economic consequences. It incorporates the major aspects of NASA Pricing Policy and corresponds to the NASA definition of STS operating costs. An overview of the SCP model is presented and the cost model portion of SCP is described in detail. Selected recent applications of the SCP model to NASA Pricing Policy issues are presented.
An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.
Huang, Min-xiang; Tao, Xiao-hu; Han, Zhen-xiang
2003-01-01
Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.
Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons
Beber, Alessandro; Driessen, Joost; Neuberger, A.; Tuijp, P
We develop an asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogeneous horizons. Depending on their horizon, investors hold different sets of assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation and spillover effects for expected returns, where the liquidity (risk)
The RAGE Software Asset Model and Metadata Model
Georgiev, Atanas; Grigorov, Alexander; Bontchev, Boyan; Boytchev, Pavel; Stefanov, Krassen; Bahreini, Kiavash; Nyamsuren, Enkhbold; Van der Vegt, Wim; Westera, Wim; Prada, Rui; Hollins, Paul; Moreno, Pablo
2016-01-01
Software assets are key output of the RAGE project and they can be used by applied game developers to enhance the pedagogical and educational value of their games. These software assets cover a broad spectrum of functionalities – from player analytics including emotion detection to intelligent
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David C. Ling
2013-08-01
Full Text Available We examine the impact of heterogeneous investors with asymmetric bargaining positions on transaction prices in private commercial real estate markets. Using a dataset that contains nearly 100,000 commercial real estate transactions during 1997-2009, we examine the extent to which common conditions of sale and buyer characteristics affect bargaining power and negotiated prices. We find that tax-motivated buyers seeking to complete a delayed Section 1031 exchange pay an average price premium of 12.5% when purchasing smaller properties. However, these price premiums for exchange motivated buyers are not observed among more expensive properties. We find strong evidence that out-of-state buyers pay significantly more (8 - 11% premium for commercial properties than in-state buyers. Consistent with our expectations, we find that sellers of distressed properties negotiate significantly lower transaction prices (13 - 15% discount than sellers of non-distressed properties, all else equal. Finally, we find evidence that REITs pay price premiums between 14 - 16% for office and industrial and retail properties. Our results strongly support the notion that relative bargaining power influences negotiated transaction prices.
Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling
Verlinda, Jeremy Alan
The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode
A hybrid model for electricity spot prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anderson, C.L.D.
2004-01-01
Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach
A hybrid model for electricity spot prices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Anderson, C.L.D.
2004-07-01
Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.
Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo
2015-01-01
In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five...
Two-faced property of a market factor in asset pricing and diversification effect
Eom, Cheoljun
2017-04-01
This study empirically investigates the test hypothesis that a market factor acting as a representative common factor in the pricing models has a negative influence on constructing a well-diversified portfolio from the Markowitz mean-variance optimization function (MVOF). We use the comparative correlation matrix (C-CM) method to control a single eigenvalue among all eigenvalues included in the sample correlation matrix (S-CM), through the random matrix theory (RMT). In particular, this study observes the effect of the largest eigenvalue that has the property of the market factor. According to the results, the largest eigenvalue has the highest explanatory power on the stock return changes. The C-CM without the largest eigenvalue in the S-CM constructs a more diversified portfolio capable of improving the practical applicability of the MVOF. Moreover, the more diversified portfolio constructed from this C-CM has better out-of-sample performance in the future period. These results support the test hypothesis for the two-faced property of the market factor, defined by the largest eigenvalue.
Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garleanu, Nicolae; Pedersen, Lasse Heje
We consider a model where investors can invest directly or search for an asset manager, information about assets is costly, and managers charge an endogenous fee. The efficiency of asset prices is linked to the efficiency of the asset management market: if investors can find managers more easily......, more money is allocated to active management, fees are lower, and asset prices are more efficient. Informed managers outperform after fees, uninformed managers underperform after fees, and the net performance of the average manager depends on the number of "noise allocators." Small investors should...... be passive, but large and sophisticated investors benefit from searching for informed active managers since their search cost is low relative to capital. Hence, managers with larger and more sophisticated investors are expected to outperform....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hakan Bilir
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Yatırım fırsatlarının değerlendirilmesi süreci beklene getiri ve riskin ölçümüne bağlıdır. Finansal Varlıkları Fiyatlama Modeli (CAPM, çok uzun yıllardır modern finans teorisinin temel taşlarından bir tanesini oluşturmaktadır. Model, varlıkların beklenen getirisi ve sistematik riski arasındaki basit doğrusal ilişkiyi ortaya koymaktadır. Model halen, sermaye maliyetinin hesaplanması, portföy yönetiminin performansının ölçülmesi ve yatırımların değerlendirilmesi amacıyla kullanılmaktadır. CAPM’in çekiciliği, riskin ve beklenen getiri ve risk arasındaki ilişkinin ölçümlenmesi konusundaki güçlü tahmin yeteneğinden gelmektedir. Bununla birlikte modelin bu yeteneği 30 yılı aşkın bir süredir akademisyenler ve uygulamacılar tarafından sorgulanmaktadır. Tartışmalar büyük ölçüde ampirik düzeyde gerçekleştirilmektedir. CAPM’in ampirik düzeydeki problemleri, çok sayıda basitleştirilmiş varsayımı içermesi nedeniyle teorik hatalardır. Çok sayıdaki gerçekçi olmayan varsayımlar modeli pratik olarak kullanışsız hale getirmektedir. Model ile ilgili temel eleştiriler ise risksiz faiz oranı, pazar portföyü ve beta katsayı üzerinde yoğunlaşmaktadır.
Organizational information assets classification model and security architecture methodology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mostafa Tamtaji
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Today's, Organizations are exposed with huge and diversity of information and information assets that are produced in different systems shuch as KMS, financial and accounting systems, official and industrial automation sysytems and so on and protection of these information is necessary. Cloud computing is a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources that can be rapidly provisioned and released.several benefits of this model cuses that organization has a great trend to implementing Cloud computing. Maintaining and management of information security is the main challenges in developing and accepting of this model. In this paper, at first, according to "design science research methodology" and compatible with "design process at information systems research", a complete categorization of organizational assets, including 355 different types of information assets in 7 groups and 3 level, is presented to managers be able to plan corresponding security controls according to importance of each groups. Then, for directing of organization to architect it’s information security in cloud computing environment, appropriate methodology is presented. Presented cloud computing security architecture , resulted proposed methodology, and presented classification model according to Delphi method and expers comments discussed and verified.
A model for efficient management of electrical assets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alonso Guerreiro, A.
2008-01-01
At the same time that energy demand grows faster than the investments in electrical installations, the older capacity is reaching the end of its useful life. The need of running all those capacity without interruptions and an efficient maintenance of its assets, are the two current key points for power generation, transmission and distribution systems. This paper tries to show the reader a model of management which makes possible an effective management of assets with a strict control cost, and which includes those key points, centred at predictive techniques, involving all the departments of the organization and which goes further on considering the maintenance like a simple reparation or substitution of broken down units. Therefore, it becomes precise a model with three basic lines: supply guarantee, quality service and competitively, in order to allow the companies to reach the current demands which characterize the power supply. (Author) 5 refs
Documentation of the Retail Price Model
The Retail Price Model (RPM) provides a first‐order estimate of average retail electricity prices using information from the EPA Base Case v.5.13 Base Case or other scenarios for each of the 64 Integrated Planing Model (IPM) regions.
A modelling approach for railway overhead line equipment asset management
Kilsby, Paul; Remenyte-Prescott, Rasa; Andrews, John
2017-01-01
The Overhead Line Equipment (OLE) is a critical sub-system of the 25kV AC overhead railway electrification system. If OLE asset management strategies can be evaluated using a whole lifecycle cost analysis that considers degradation processes and maintenance activities of the OLE components, the investment required to deliver the level of performance desired by railway customers and regulators can be based on evidence from the analysis results. A High Level Petri Net (HLPN) model, proposed in ...
Volatility modeling of asset returns | Babayemi | International Journal ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This research was carried out using the daily close share price of Nestle Nigeria Plc to identify and model its volatility of returns in the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market. The result of the study showed that basic Generalized Conditionally Heteroskedastic Model (GARCH (1,1)) model (with Gaussian Error Assumptions) best ...
A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Asspet Price with Three Time Delays
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Akio Matsumoto
2016-09-01
Full Text Available This paper considers a continuous-time heterogeneous agent model ofa ...nancial market with one risky asset, two types of agents (i.e., thefundamentalists and the chartists, and three time delays. The chartistdemand is determined through a nonlinear function of the di¤erence be-tween the current price and a weighted moving average of the delayedprices whereas the fundamentalist demand is governed by the di¤erencebetween the current price and the fundamental value. The asset price dy-namics is described by a nonlinear delay di¤erential equation. Two mainresults are analytically and numerically shown:(i the delay destabilizes the market price and generates cyclic oscillationsaround the equilibrium;(ii under multiple delays, stability loss and gain repeatedly occurs as alength of the delay increases.
Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices
Boswijk, H.P.; Hommes, C.H.; Manzan, S.
2007-01-01
We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An
Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans [University of Edinburgh, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, The Management School (United Kingdom)
2008-11-15
Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)
Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans
2008-01-01
Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)
Capital asset pricing model and variable behaviour in the Nigerian ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This study establishes that there are positive relationships between CAPM's expected return, risks and risk premium. The zero value of the intercept term has been tested in most capital markets the world over. Research results of analysed data of the risk-free rate of return, Rf, calculated β, expected market return, Rm ...
THE IMPACT OF THE BASIC ASSETS EFFICIENCY ON THE OF CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTS COST PRICE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Z. Zeynalov
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In article are considered problems of the analysis of the influence mode to usages and conditions of the building technology and facilities to mechanizations on prime cost produced building product. It is offered original scheme intercropping the factors, in accordance with influence of the working expenses of the facilities of the lab our on prime cost of the building product. The offered methods of the estimation physical wear-out level of the building technology and competitiveness of the active part of production assets of the building enterprise.
Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng
2008-01-01
In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies
Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing
We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller house...... price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price...... index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower frequency data....
A model for the effects of psychological pricing in Gabor-Granger price studies
Wedel, M; Leeflang, PSH
We present a model of consumers' price sensitivity that explicitly deals with the existence of so-called psychological price levels or odd prices, i.e. prices ending in an odd number. The model is formulated in a latent class framework, in which splines are used to model utility as a function of
Price models for oil derivates in Slovenia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nemac, F.; Saver, A.
1995-01-01
In Slovenia, a law is currently applied according to which any change in the price of oil derivatives is subject to the Governmental approval. Following the target of getting closer to the European Union, the necessity has arisen of finding ways for the introduction of liberalization or automated approach to price modifications depending on oscillations of oil derivative prices on the world market and the rate of exchange of the American dollar. It is for this reason that at the Agency for Energy Restructuring we made a study for the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development regarding this issue. We analysed the possible models for the formation of oil derivative prices for Slovenia. Based on the assessment of experiences of primarily the west European countries, we proposed three models for the price formation for Slovenia. In future, it is expected that the Government of the Republic of Slovenia will make a selection of one of the proposed models to be followed by enforcement of price liberalization. The paper presents two representative models for price formation as used in Austria and Portugal. In the continuation the authors analyse the application of three models that they find suitable for the use in Slovenia. (author)
STUDY REGARDING THE ASSETS EVALUATION ON THE FINANCIAL MARKET THROUGH THE C.A.P.M. MODEL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicolae Baltes
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM was introduced through the works of William Sharpe (1964, John Lintner (1965 and Jan Mossin (1966 based on the research of Henry Markovitz. Due to the independent formulation of the model by these three american researchers, there are in the literature references to the Security Market Line (SML model of financial assets evaluation. CAPM model, revolutionized the financial theory, highlighting the link between the rentability of the individual securities and the rentability of the financial market. The first fundamental hypothesis of the model is that investors are concerned about the expected rentability closely related to the risk associated with it. Consequently, under equilibrium conditions of the financial market, the CAPM model highlights a linear relationship between the expected rentability of the portfolio and the amount of risk assumed by investors.
Modelling oil price volatility with structural breaks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salisu, Afees A.; Fasanya, Ismail O.
2013-01-01
In this paper, we provide two main innovations: (i) we analyze oil prices of two prominent markets namely West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent using the two recently developed tests by Narayan and Popp (2010) and Liu and Narayan, 2010 both of which allow for two structural breaks in the data series; and (ii) the latter method is modified to include both symmetric and asymmetric volatility models. We identify two structural breaks that occur in 1990 and 2008 which coincidentally correspond to the Iraqi/Kuwait conflict and the global financial crisis, respectively. We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in the oil price volatility. While further extensions can be pursued, the consideration of asymmetric effects as well as structural breaks should not be jettisoned when modelling oil price volatility. - Highlights: ► We analyze oil price volatility using NP (2010) and LN (2010) tests. ► We modify the LN (2010) to account for leverage effects in oil price. ► We find two structural breaks that reflect major global crisis in the oil market. ► We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in oil price volatility. ► Leverage effects and structural breaks are fundamental in oil price modelling.
The model of asset management of commercial banks
Shaymardanov, Shakhzod; Nuriddinov, Sadriddin; Mamadaliev, Donierbek; Murodkhonov, Mukhammad
2018-01-01
The main objective of the commercial bank's policy in the sphere of asset and liability management is to maintain the optimal structure of assets and liabilities, ensure the compliance of amounts, terms and currency of attracting and allocating resources. The objectives and principles of asset and liability management are based on the bank's strategy and the fundamental principles of the risk management policy.
Asset backed securities : risks, ratings and quantitative modelling
Jönsson, B.H.B.; Schoutens, W.
2009-01-01
Asset backed securities (ABSs) are structured finance products backed by pools of assets and are created through a securitisation process. The risks in asset backed securities, such as, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risks, operational risk, and legal risks, are directly connected with the
Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie
2008-01-01
We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data
Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malova, Aleksandra; Ploeg, Frederick van der
2017-01-01
Despite substantial oil and gas revenue Russia's fiscal stance is unsustainable. Under our benchmark assumptions the permanent-income rule requires a permanent tightening of the fiscal stance by 4.6%-points of GDP. Delaying it by a decade implies that the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by a further 0.9%-point. This benchmark optimal policy ensures that depletion of oil and gas wealth is matched by an equal increase in above-ground financial wealth. Its merits are highlighted by comparing it with the tougher alternative of the bird-in-hand rule and with projecting the current fiscal stance. If oil and gas revenue rises by a half due to higher prices or more discoveries, the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by only 3.2%-points of GDP. However, if a large chunk of oil and gas has to be kept in the soil to meet international agreements to keep global warming below 2 °C, the permanent transfer drops to 2.0% of GDP and the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by 5.5%-points of GDP. - Highlights: • Sustained lower oil prices mean that Russia has to tighten its fiscal stance by 4.6%-points of GDP. • If oil & gas revenue rise by half, the fiscal stance only needs to be tightened by 3.2%-points of GDP. • Delaying by a decade means that the fiscal stance has to be tightened by a further 0.9%-points of GDP. • If Russia commits to Paris COP21, a large chunk of reserves cannot be burnt. • The fiscal stance then needs to be tightened by 5.5%-points of GDP.
The Arbitrage Pricing Model: A Pedagogic Derivation and a Spreadsheet-Based Illustration
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Clarence C. Y. Kwan
2016-05-01
Full Text Available This paper derives, from a pedagogic perspective, the Arbitrage Pricing Model, which is an important asset pricing model in modern finance. The derivation is based on the idea that, if a self-financed investment has no risk exposures, the payoff from the investment can only be zero. Microsoft Excel plays an important pedagogic role in this paper. The Excel illustration not only helps students recognize more fully the various nuances in the model derivation, but also serves as a good starting point for students to explore on their own the relevance of the noise issue in the model derivation.
Pricing Exotic Options under a High-Order Markovian Regime Switching Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wai-Ki Ching
2007-10-01
Full Text Available We consider the pricing of exotic options when the price dynamics of the underlying risky asset are governed by a discrete-time Markovian regime-switching process driven by an observable, high-order Markov model (HOMM. We assume that the market interest rate, the drift, and the volatility of the underlying risky asset's return switch over time according to the states of the HOMM, which are interpreted as the states of an economy. We will then employ the well-known tool in actuarial science, namely, the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for option valuation. Moreover, we will also investigate the impact of the high-order effect of the states of the economy on the prices of some path-dependent exotic options, such as Asian options, lookback options, and barrier options.
Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nogales, F.J.; Conejo, A.J.
2006-01-01
Forecasting electricity prices in present day competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naive and other techniques. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 350-356.doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601995; published online 18 May 2005. (author)
Duality in an asset exchange model for wealth distribution
Li, Jie; Boghosian, Bruce M.
2018-05-01
Asset exchange models are agent-based economic models with binary transactions. Previous investigations have augmented these models with mechanisms for wealth redistribution, quantified by a parameter χ, and for trading bias favoring wealthier agents, quantified by a parameter ζ. By deriving and analyzing a Fokker-Planck equation for a particular asset exchange model thus augmented, it has been shown that it exhibits a second-order phase transition at ζ / χ = 1, between regimes with and without partial wealth condensation. In the "subcritical" regime with ζ / χ 1, a fraction 1 - χ / ζ of the wealth is condensed. Intuitively, one may associate the supercritical, wealth-condensed regime as reflecting the presence of "oligarchy," by which we mean that an infinitesimal fraction of the total agents hold a finite fraction of the total wealth in the continuum limit. In this paper, we further elucidate the phase behavior of this model - and hence of the generalized solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation that describes it - by demonstrating the existence of a remarkable symmetry between its supercritical and subcritical regimes in the steady-state. Noting that the replacement { ζ → χ , χ → ζ } , which clearly has the effect of inverting the order parameter ζ / χ, provides a one-to-one correspondence between the subcritical and supercritical states, we demonstrate that the wealth distribution of the subcritical state is identical to that of the corresponding supercritical state when the oligarchy is removed from the latter. We demonstrate this result analytically, both from the microscopic agent-level model and from its macroscopic Fokker-Planck description, as well as numerically. We argue that this symmetry is a kind of duality, analogous to the famous Kramers-Wannier duality between the subcritical and supercritical states of the Ising model, and to the Maldacena duality that underlies AdS/CFT theory.
Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade
Philippe Martin; Helene Rey
2001-01-01
This paper presents a new theoretical framework to analyze=20 financial markets in an international context. We build a two-country=20 macroeconomic model in which agents are risk averse, assets are imperfect=20 substitutes, the number of financial assets is endogenous, and cross-border= =20 asset trade entails transaction costs. We show that demand effects have=20 important implications for the link between market size, asset prices and=20 financial market development. These effects are cons...
Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade.
Philippe Martin and Hélène Rey.
2000-01-01
This paper presents a new theoretical framework to analyze financial markets in an international context. We build a two-country macroeconomic model in which agents are risk averse, assets are imperfect substitutes, the number of financial assets is endogenous, and cross-border asset trade entails transaction costs. We show that demand effects have important implications for the link between market size, asset prices and financial market development. These effects are consistent with the exis...
Expected commodity returns and pricing models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S.
2015-01-01
Stochastic models of commodity prices have evolved considerably in terms of their structure and the number and interpretation of the state variables that model the underlying risk. Using multiple factors, different specifications and modern estimation techniques, these models have gained wide acceptance because of their success in accurately fitting the observed commodity futures' term structures and their dynamics. It is not well emphasized however that these models, in addition to providing the risk neutral distribution of future spot prices, also provide their true distribution. While the parameters of the risk neutral distribution are estimated more precisely and are usually statistically significant, some of the parameters of the true distribution are typically measured with large errors and are statistically insignificant. In this paper we argue that to increase the reliability of commodity pricing models, and therefore their use by practitioners, some of their parameters — in particular the risk premium parameters — should be obtained from other sources and we show that this can be done without losing any precision in the pricing of futures contracts. We show how the risk premium parameters can be obtained from estimations of expected futures returns and provide alternative procedures for estimating these expected futures returns. - Highlights: • Simple methodology to improve the performance of commodity pricing models • New information about commodity futures expected return is added to the estimation. • No significant effect in pricing futures contracts is observed. • More reliable commodity pricing model's expected returns are obtained. • Methodology is open to any expected futures return model preferred by practitioner
Short-Run Asset Selection using a Logistic Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Walter Gonçalves Junior
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique perceptions. This paper aims to investigate to what extent some of the most notorious indicators have discriminatory power to select stocks, and if it is feasible with such variables to build models that could anticipate those with good performance. In order to do that, logistical regressions were conducted with stocks traded at Bovespa using the selected indicators as explanatory variables. Investigated in this study were the outputs of Bovespa Index, liquidity, the Sharpe Ratio, ROE, MB, size and age evidenced to be significant predictors. Also examined were half-year, logistical models, which were adjusted in order to check the potential acceptable discriminatory power for the asset selection.
An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics
Edward L. Glaeser; Charles G. Nathanson
2015-01-01
A modest approximation by homebuyers leads house prices to display three features that are present in the data but usually missing from perfectly rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Valuing a house involves forecasting the current and future demand to live in the surrounding area. Buyers forecast using past transaction prices. Approximating buyers do not adjust for the expectations of...
Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mircea Gabriela
2015-06-01
Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.
Time-independent models of asset returns revisited
Gillemot, L.; Töyli, J.; Kertesz, J.; Kaski, K.
2000-07-01
In this study we investigate various well-known time-independent models of asset returns being simple normal distribution, Student t-distribution, Lévy, truncated Lévy, general stable distribution, mixed diffusion jump, and compound normal distribution. For this we use Standard and Poor's 500 index data of the New York Stock Exchange, Helsinki Stock Exchange index data describing a small volatile market, and artificial data. The results indicate that all models, excluding the simple normal distribution, are, at least, quite reasonable descriptions of the data. Furthermore, the use of differences instead of logarithmic returns tends to make the data looking visually more Lévy-type distributed than it is. This phenomenon is especially evident in the artificial data that has been generated by an inflated random walk process.
A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing
Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas
2011-11-01
The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.
Eicher, Bernhard
2016-10-01
Hospitals are responsible for a remarkable part of the annual increase in healthcare expenditure. This article examines one of the major cost drivers, the expenditure for investment in hospital assets. The study, conducted in Switzerland, identifies factors that influence hospitals' investment decisions. A suggestion on how to categorize asset investment models is presented based on the life cycle of an asset, and its influencing factors defined based on transaction cost economics. The influence of five factors (human asset specificity, physical asset specificity, uncertainty, bargaining power, and privacy of ownership) on the selection of an asset investment model is examined using a two-step fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. The research shows that outsourcing-oriented asset investment models are particularly favored in the presence of two combinations of influencing factors: First, if technological uncertainty is high and both human asset specificity and bargaining power of a hospital are low. Second, if assets are very specific, technological uncertainty is high and there is a private hospital with low bargaining power, outsourcing-oriented asset investment models are favored too. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis, it can be demonstrated that investment decisions of hospitals do not depend on isolated influencing factors but on a combination of factors. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bunn, D.W.
2004-04-01
Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)
Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany
Sterken, Elmer
2003-01-01
In this paper I derive a complete characterization for the equilibria that may arise in a binary choice interaction model with a ?nite number of interacting agents. In particular, the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents and the set of equilibria is derived.
Pricing of the Policy Life in Absence of Default Risk and Asset Liability Management
Giandomenico, Rossano
2006-01-01
The model, by using the option theory, determines the fair value of the life insurance policies in absence of default risk and shows that the fair fixed guaranteed interest-rate is less than the risk free interest rate due to the exchange of options between policyholders and shareholders. Furthermore, it shows that the effective liabilities duration is different from the duration of a default free zero coupon bond with the same time of maturity such that the equity value is immunized by using...
The 5C model: A new approach to asset integrity management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahim, Yousif; Refsdal, Ingbjorn; Kenett, Ron S.
2010-01-01
As organizations grow more complex in operation and more global in scope, assets and technical integrity become key success factors. A company's asset integrity business process needs to be mapped in order to 1) provide a proper overview of operation and business processes, 2) identify all critical interfaces and 3) ensure that all gaps and overlaps in processes are eliminated. Achieving asset integrity requires companies to sustain their activities and identify the hazards, weaknesses and objectives of their strategic assets. Technical integrity emphasizes a complete overview of technical conditions and related information, and the ability of the companies to document the technical state of its assets. It is based on an integrated view of the current state of operations, and the identification of all critical interfaces, in order to ensure that all gaps and unnecessary overlaps in processes are eliminated. Companies look increasingly at their asset integrity management system as a means to extend the life of their assets, beyond the original design conditions and production capacity. Establishing an asset integrity management system requires the documentation of the company's technical integrity management, a strategy and the processes for carrying it out, identifying gaps; selecting corrective interventions and conducting follow up actions. The paper discusses various aspects of asset integrity management, including its planning and implementation. We begin with an introduction to asset technical integrity, provide some theoretical backgrounds, present a model we call 5C and conclude with a summary and discussion.
EOQ model for perishable products with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price
Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.
2017-11-01
In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model for perishable products like vegetables, fruits, milk, flowers, meat, etc.,with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price. Here we consider the demand is depending on selling price and deterioration rate is constant. Here we developed mathematical model to determine optimal discounton the unit selling price to maximize total profit. Numerical examples are given for illustrated.
An Optimal Investment Strategy and Multiperiod Deposit Insurance Pricing Model for Commercial Banks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grant E. Muller
2018-01-01
Full Text Available We employ the method of stochastic optimal control to derive the optimal investment strategy for maximizing an expected exponential utility of a commercial bank’s capital at some future date T>0. In addition, we derive a multiperiod deposit insurance (DI pricing model that incorporates the explicit solution of the optimal control problem and an asset value reset rule comparable to the typical practice of insolvency resolution by insuring agencies. By way of numerical simulations, we study the effects of changes in the DI coverage horizon, the risk associated with the asset portfolio of the bank, and the bank’s initial leverage level (deposit-to-asset ratio on the DI premium while the optimal investment strategy is followed.
Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?
Akdeniz, Levent; Salih, Aslıhan Altay; Ok, Süleyman Tuluğ
2007-03-01
This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.
Scaling symmetry, renormalization, and time series modeling: the case of financial assets dynamics.
Zamparo, Marco; Baldovin, Fulvio; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L
2013-12-01
We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest version the model is the product of an endogenous autoregressive component and a random rescaling factor designed to embody also exogenous influences. Mathematical properties like increments' stationarity and ergodicity can be proven. Thanks to the relatively low number of parameters, model calibration can be conveniently based on a method of moments, as exemplified in the case of historical data of the S&P500 index. The calibrated model accounts very well for many stylized facts, like volatility clustering, power-law decay of the volatility autocorrelation function, and multiscaling with time of the aggregated return distribution. In agreement with empirical evidence in finance, the dynamics is not invariant under time reversal, and, with suitable generalizations, skewness of the return distribution and leverage effects can be included. The analytical tractability of the model opens interesting perspectives for applications, for instance, in terms of obtaining closed formulas for derivative pricing. Further important features are the possibility of making contact, in certain limits, with autoregressive models widely used in finance and the possibility of partially resolving the long- and short-memory components of the volatility, with consistent results when applied to historical series.
Scaling symmetry, renormalization, and time series modeling: The case of financial assets dynamics
Zamparo, Marco; Baldovin, Fulvio; Caraglio, Michele; Stella, Attilio L.
2013-12-01
We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest version the model is the product of an endogenous autoregressive component and a random rescaling factor designed to embody also exogenous influences. Mathematical properties like increments’ stationarity and ergodicity can be proven. Thanks to the relatively low number of parameters, model calibration can be conveniently based on a method of moments, as exemplified in the case of historical data of the S&P500 index. The calibrated model accounts very well for many stylized facts, like volatility clustering, power-law decay of the volatility autocorrelation function, and multiscaling with time of the aggregated return distribution. In agreement with empirical evidence in finance, the dynamics is not invariant under time reversal, and, with suitable generalizations, skewness of the return distribution and leverage effects can be included. The analytical tractability of the model opens interesting perspectives for applications, for instance, in terms of obtaining closed formulas for derivative pricing. Further important features are the possibility of making contact, in certain limits, with autoregressive models widely used in finance and the possibility of partially resolving the long- and short-memory components of the volatility, with consistent results when applied to historical series.
Port pricing : principles, structure and models
Meersman, Hilde; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen; Van de Voorde, Eddy
2014-01-01
Price level and price transparency are input to shippers’ choice of supply chain and transport mode. In this paper, we analyse current port pricing structures in the light of the pricing literature and consider opportunities for improvement. We present a detailed overview of pricing criteria, who sets prices and who ultimately foots the bill for port-of-call charges, cargo-handling fees and congestion charges. Current port pricing practice is based on a rather linear structure and fails to in...
Deregulated model and locational marginal pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sood, Yog Raj; Padhy, N.P.; Gupta, H.O.
2007-01-01
This paper presents a generalized optimal model that dispatches the pool in combination with privately negotiated bilateral and multilateral contracts while maximizing social benefit has been proposed. This model determines the locational marginal pricing (LMP) based on marginal cost theory. It also determines the size of non-firm transactions as well as pool demand and generations. Both firms as well as non-firm transactions are considered in this model. The proposed model has been applied to IEEE-30 bus test system. In this test system different types of transactions are added for analysis of the proposed model. (author)
Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling
Cheng, Xu
In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such
BUSINESS MODELS FOR TAX AND TRANSFER PRICING PURPOSES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Corlaciu Alexandra
2013-07-01
Full Text Available In order to remain competitive, the multinational enterprises (MNEs are forced by the globalization phenomenon (which manifestation has became more and more stringent to analyze continuously its effectiveness. In this respect, the structure of the business represents an element which might have an important impact for the enterprise’s overall results. This is why, in the last decades, the MNEs granted special attention to business structures and put significant efforts in business restructurings, where the case, with the scope to keep the efficiency and to remain on the market. Generally, the operational business restructuring process follows one of the business model globally developed, namely manufacturer or sales business models. Thus, according to the functions performed, assets used and risks assumed, the entities within the group are labeled into limited risk units (such as toll manufacturer or commission agent, medium risk (contract manufacturer, commissionaire, stripped distributor or high risk units (fully fledged manufacturer, fully fledged distributor. Notwithstanding the above, there should be emphasized that the operational business restructuring has to be undertaken with maximal care, as it might have important fiscal impact. Having this regard, the purpose of the present investigation is to provide, from a tax and transfer pricing point of view, a systematic and structured analysis of the generally characteristics of business models (manufacturer and sales business models used by multinational enterprises in the process of business reorganization, with the scope to increase their performance and the sustainable competitive advantages. Thus, by using the fundamental (theoretical and qualitative research type, this paper is aiming to present the most important characteristics of each business model (general overview of each model, the principal risk assumed, the usual transfer pricing method used for the remuneration of intra
Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.
2010-01-01
In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.
A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
QIAN Edward Y.; FENG Ying; HIGGISION James
2005-01-01
This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and Sharpe's rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institutional or individual investor can combine Markowitz's portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe's rule and Value-at-Risk(VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the generalized Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe's rule improve decision making for investment.
European Option Pricing with Transaction Costs in Lévy Jump Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiayin Li
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The European option pricing problem with transaction costs is investigated for a risky asset price model with Lévy jump. By the aid of arbitrage pricing theory and the generalized Itô formula (which includes Poisson jump, the explicit solution to the risk asset price model is given. According to arbitrage-free principle, we first discretize the continuous-time model. Then, in each small time interval, the transaction costs are introduced. By using the Δ-hedging strategy, the explicit solutions of the European options pricing formula with transaction costs are given for the risky asset price model with Lévy jump.
Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices
Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.
We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate
A Data Mining Approach to Modelling of Water Supply Assets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Babovic, V.; Drecourt, J.; Keijzer, M.
2002-01-01
supply assets are mainly situated underground, and therefore not visible and under the influence of various highly unpredictable forces. This paper proposes the use of advanced data mining methods in order to determine the risks of pipe bursts. For example, analysis of the database of already occurred...
Asset Attribution Stability and Portfolio Construction: An Educational Example
Chong, James T.; Jennings, William P.; Phillips, G. Michael
2014-01-01
This paper illustrates how a third statistic from asset pricing models, the R-squared statistic, may have information that can help in portfolio construction. Using a traditional CAPM model in comparison to an 18-factor Arbitrage Pricing Style Model, a portfolio separation test is conducted. Portfolio returns and risk metrics are compared using…
Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels
In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... in the spot price dynamics. Estimation of the spatial Durbin model show that the spatial lag variable is as important as the temporal lag variable in describing the spot price dynamics. We use the partial derivatives impact approach to decompose the price impacts into direct and indirect effects and we show...... that price effects transmit to neighboring markets and decline with distance. In order to examine the evolution of the spatial correlation over time, a time varying parameters spot price spatial Durbin model is estimated using recursive estimation. It is found that the spatial correlation within the Nord...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tjin, T.; Buitelaar, T.
2000-02-01
July 1999 The Netherlands Electricity Regulatory Service (DtE) published an Information and Consultation Document on the subject of 'Price Cap Regulation in the Dutch Electricity Sector'. By means of price cap regulation tariffs are determined such that businesses are stimulated continuously to organize their total processes and operation as efficient as possible. In the consultation document a large number of questions with respect to the future organization and planning of the system of economic regulation of the electricity sector in the Netherlands can be found. Many reactions and answers were received, compiled and analyzed. The results are presented in the main report, which forms the framework for the DtE to shape the economic regulation of the Dutch electricity sector. In this background document attention is paid to a method to determine the Regulatory Asset Base (RAB)
Asset Return Dynamics and Learning
William A. Branch; George W. Evans
2010-01-01
This article advocates a theory of expectation formation that incorporates many of the central motivations of behavioral finance theory while retaining much of the discipline of the rational expectations approach. We provide a framework in which agents, in an asset pricing model, underparameterize their forecasting model in a spirit similar to Hong, Stein, and Yu (2007) and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998), except that the parameters of the forecasting model and the choice of predictor a...
Orphan Drug Pricing: An Original Exponential Model Relating Price to the Number of Patients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea Messori
2016-10-01
Full Text Available In managing drug prices at the national level, orphan drugs represent a special case because the price of these agents is higher than that determined according to value-based principles. A common practice is to set the orphan drug price in an inverse relationship with the number of patients, so that the price increases as the number of patients decreases. Determination of prices in this context generally has a purely empirical nature, but a theoretical basis would be needed. The present paper describes an original exponential model that manages the relationship between price and number of patients for orphan drugs. Three real examples are analysed in detail (eculizumab, bosentan, and a data set of 17 orphan drugs published in 2010. These analyses have been aimed at identifying some objective criteria to rationally inform this relationship between prices and patients and at converting these criteria into explicit quantitative rules.
A Simple Model of Pharmaceutical Price Dynamics
Bhattacharya, Jayanta; Vogt, William B
2003-01-01
Branded pharmaceutical firms use price and promotional strategy to manage public knowledge about their drugs. We propose a dynamic theory of pharmaceutical pricing and conduct an exploratory empirical analysis inspired by the theory. Our theory predicts a pattern of increasing prices and decreasing promotional activities over a drug's life cycle. Prices are kept low and advertising levels high early in the life cycle in order to build public knowledge about the drug. As knowledge grows, price...
Pricing the Services in Dynamic Environment: Agent Pricing Model
Žagar, Drago; Rupčić, Slavko; Rimac-Drlje, Snježana
New Internet applications and services as well as new user demands open many new issues concerning dynamic management of quality of service and price for received service, respectively. The main goals of Internet service providers are to maximize profit and maintain a negotiated quality of service. From the users' perspective the main goal is to maximize ratio of received QoS and costs of service. However, achieving these objectives could become very complex if we know that Internet service users might during the session become highly dynamic and proactive. This connotes changes in user profile or network provider/s profile caused by high level of user mobility or variable level of user demands. This paper proposes a new agent based pricing architecture for serving the highly dynamic customers in context of dynamic user/network environment. The proposed architecture comprises main aspects and basic parameters that will enable objective and transparent assessment of the costs for the service those Internet users receive while dynamically change QoS demands and cost profile.
Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage
Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.
2015-12-01
Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.
Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nuhu Isah
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.
Equilibrium Price Dispersion in a Matching Model with Divisible Money
Kamiya, K.; Sato, T.
2002-01-01
The main purpose of this paper is to show that, for any given parameter values, an equilibrium with dispersed prices (two-price equilibrium) exists in a simple matching model with divisible money presented by Green and Zhou (1998).We also show that our two-price equilibrium is unique in certain
Minimum Price Guarantees In a Consumer Search Model
M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); A. Parakhonyak (Alexei)
2009-01-01
textabstractThis paper is the first to examine the effect of minimum price guarantees in a sequential search model. Minimum price guarantees are not advertised and only known to consumers when they come to the shop. We show that in such an environment, minimum price guarantees increase the value of
Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives
Ning, Yumei
Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes
Determination of the Factors That Affect House Prices in Turkey by Using Hedonic Pricing Model
Kaya, Aslı; Atan, Murat
2014-01-01
The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze the marginal effects of various features of the houses on the prices to observe the price changes in the Turkish housing market which follows a heterogeneous pattern. As the second concern, it is aimed to declare the results and additionally to define Turkish housing market and its submarkets which affect the market itself and to calculate the pure price changes of the houses with constant features. Hedonic pricing model is applied on the data o...
Spatial Data Web Services Pricing Model Infrastructure
Ozmus, L.; Erkek, B.; Colak, S.; Cankurt, I.; Bakıcı, S.
2013-08-01
most important law with related NSDI is the establishment of General Directorate of Geographic Information System under the Ministry of Environment and Urbanism. due to; to do or to have do works and activities with related to the establishment of National Geographic Information Systems (NGIS), usage of NGIS and improvements of NGIS. Outputs of these projects are served to not only public administration but also to Turkish society. Today for example, TAKBIS data (cadastre services) are shared more than 50 institutions by Web services, Tusaga-Aktif system has more than 3800 users who are having real-time GPS data correction, Orthophoto WMS services has been started for two years as a charge of free. Today there is great discussion about data pricing among the institutions. Some of them think that the pricing is storage of the data. Some of them think that the pricing is value of data itself. There is no certain rule about pricing. On this paper firstly, pricing of data storage and later on spatial data pricing models in different countries are investigated to improve institutional understanding in Turkey.
Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices
Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.
2018-01-01
In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.
Electricity pricing model in thermal generating stations under deregulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reji, P.; Ashok, S.; Moideenkutty, K.M.
2007-01-01
In regulated public utilities with competitive power markets, deregulation has replaced the monopoly. Under the deregulated power market, the electricity price primarily depends on market mechanism and power demand. In this market, generators generally follow marginal pricing. Each generator fixes the electricity price based on their pricing strategy and it leads to more price volatility. This paper proposed a model to determine the electricity price considering all operational constraints of the plant and economic variables that influenced the price, for a thermal generating station under deregulation. The purpose of the model was to assist existing stations, investors in the power sector, regulatory authorities, transmission utilities, and new power generators in decision-making. The model could accommodate price volatility in the market and was based on performance incentive/penalty considering plant load factor, availability of the plant and peak/ off peak demand. The model was applied as a case study to a typical thermal utility in India to determine the electricity price. It was concluded that the case study of a thermal generating station in a deregulated environment showed that the electricity price mainly depended on the gross calorific value (GCV) of fuel, mode of operation, price of the fuel, and operating charges. 11 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig
Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne (Australia)
2010-01-15
The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)
Cost modelling in maintenance strategy optimisation for infrastructure assets with limited data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Wenjuan; Wang, Wenbin
2014-01-01
Our paper reports on the use of cost modelling in maintenance strategy optimisation for infrastructure assets. We present an original approach: the possibility of modelling even when the data and information usually required are not sufficient in quantity and quality. Our method makes use of subjective expert knowledge, and requires information gathered for only a small sample of assets to start with. Bayes linear methods are adopted to combine the subjective expert knowledge with the sample data to estimate the unknown model parameters of the cost model. When new information becomes available, Bayes linear methods also prove useful in updating these estimates. We use a case study from the rail industry to demonstrate our methods. The optimal maintenance strategy is obtained via simulation based on the estimated model parameters and the strategy with the least unit time cost is identified. When the optimal strategy is not followed due to insufficient funding, the future costs of recovering the degraded asset condition are estimated
Favato, Giampiero; Mariani, Paolo; Mills, Roger W; Capone, Alessandro; Pelagatti, Matteo; Pieri, Vasco; Marcobelli, Alberico; Trotta, Maria G; Zucchi, Alberto; Catapano, Alberico L
2007-07-04
The primary objective of this study was to make the first step in the modelling of pharmaceutical demand in Italy, by deriving a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices. The experimental model was called ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment). Individual prescription costs and demographic data referred to 3,175,691 Italian subjects and were collected directly from three Regional Health Authorities over the 12-month period between October 2004 and September 2005. The mean annual prescription cost per individual was similar for males (196.13 euro) and females (195.12 euro). After 65 years of age, the mean prescribing costs for males were significantly higher than females. On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25-34 year-old subject if male, 8 times if female. Subjects over 65 years of age (22% of total population) accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs. The weightings explained approximately 90% of the evolution of total prescribing costs, in spite of the pricing and reimbursement turbulences affecting Italy in the 2000-2005 period. The ASSET weightings were able to explain only about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals. If mainly idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners causes the unexplained variations, the introduction of capitation-based budgets would gradually move practices with high prescribing costs towards the national average. It is also possible, though, that the unexplained individual variation in prescribing costs is the result of differences in the clinical characteristics or socio-economic conditions of practice populations. If this is the case, capitation-based budgets may lead to unfair distribution of resources. The ASSET age/sex weightings should be used as a guide, not as the ultimate determinant, for an equitable allocation of prescribing resources to regional authorities and general practices.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Adamson, Anthony
1998-01-01
.... It is published as three separate volumes. Volume I, USAF Logistics Process Optimization Study for the Aircraft Asset Sustainment Process -- Phase II Report, discusses the result and cost/benefit analysis of testing three initiatives...
Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miao Han
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.
Asset transformation and the challenges to servitize a utility business model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Helms, Thorsten
2016-01-01
The traditional energy utility business model is under pressure, and energy services are expected to play an important role for the energy transition. Experts and scholars argue that utilities need to innovate their business models, and transform from commodity suppliers to service providers. The transition from a product-oriented, capital-intensive business model based on tangible assets, towards a service-oriented, expense-intensive business model based on intangible assets may present great managerial and organizational challenges. Little research exists about such transitions for capital-intensive commodity providers, and particularly energy utilities, where the challenges to servitize are expected to be greatest. This qualitative paper explores the barriers to servitization within selected Swiss and German utility companies through a series of interviews with utility managers. One of them is ‘asset transformation’, the shift from tangible to intangible assets as major input factor for the value proposition, which is proposed as a driver for the complexity of business model transitions. Managers need to carefully manage those challenges, and find ways to operate both new service and established utility business models aside. Policy makers can support the transition of utilities through more favorable regulatory frameworks for energy services, and by supporting the exchange of knowledge in the industry. - Highlights: •The paper analyses the expected transformation of utilities into service-providers. •Service and utility business models possess very different attributes. •The former is based on intangible, the latter on tangible assets. •The transformation into a service-provider is related with great challenges. •Asset transformation is proposed as a barrier for business model innovation.
Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year
Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall
2005-01-01
This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...
PID feedback controller used as a tactical asset allocation technique: The G.A.M. model
Gandolfi, G.; Sabatini, A.; Rossolini, M.
2007-09-01
The objective of this paper is to illustrate a tactical asset allocation technique utilizing the PID controller. The proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is widely applied in most industrial processes; it has been successfully used for over 50 years and it is used by more than 95% of the plants processes. It is a robust and easily understood algorithm that can provide excellent control performance in spite of the diverse dynamic characteristics of the process plant. In finance, the process plant, controlled by the PID controller, can be represented by financial market assets forming a portfolio. More specifically, in the present work, the plant is represented by a risk-adjusted return variable. Money and portfolio managers’ main target is to achieve a relevant risk-adjusted return in their managing activities. In literature and in the financial industry business, numerous kinds of return/risk ratios are commonly studied and used. The aim of this work is to perform a tactical asset allocation technique consisting in the optimization of risk adjusted return by means of asset allocation methodologies based on the PID model-free feedback control modeling procedure. The process plant does not need to be mathematically modeled: the PID control action lies in altering the portfolio asset weights, according to the PID algorithm and its parameters, Ziegler-and-Nichols-tuned, in order to approach the desired portfolio risk-adjusted return efficiently.
2005-12-01
asset pricing model ( CAPM ). “According to the CAPM theory, investors determine their required return by adding a risk premium to the interest rate...NUMBER OF PAGES 77 14. SUBJECT TERMS Capital Budgeting; GAO; DOD; Capital Assets ; Risk, OMB; NPV, IRR 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY...needs of the mission, as defined by the strategic plan, and limit the number of “nice to haves” (OMB, 1997). d. Alternatives to Capital Assets
Shimizu, Chihiro
2014-01-01
How exactly should one estimate property investment returns? Investors in property aim to maximize capital gains from price increases and income generated by the property. How are the returns on investment in property determined based on its characteristics, and what kind of market characteristics does it have? Focusing on the Tokyo commercial property market and residential property market, the purpose of this paper was to break down and measure the micro-structure of property investment ret...
An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models
P. Houweling (Patrick); A.C.F. Vorst (Ton)
2002-01-01
textabstractAbstract: In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ming Dong
2010-01-01
Full Text Available The primary objective of engineering asset management is to optimize assets service delivery potential and to minimize the related risks and costs over their entire life through the development and application of asset health and usage management in which the health and reliability prediction plays an important role. In real-life situations where an engineering asset operates under dynamic operational and environmental conditions, the lifetime of an engineering asset is generally described as monitored nonlinear time-series data and subject to high levels of uncertainty and unpredictability. It has been proved that application of data mining techniques is very useful for extracting relevant features which can be used as parameters for assets diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, a tutorial on nonlinear time-series data mining in engineering asset health and reliability prediction is given. Besides that an overview on health and reliability prediction techniques for engineering assets is covered, this tutorial will focus on concepts, models, algorithms, and applications of hidden Markov models (HMMs and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs in engineering asset health prognosis, which are representatives of recent engineering asset health prediction techniques.
Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars
2014-01-01
Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marekwica, Marcel; Maurer, Raimond; Sebastian, Steffen P.
2011-01-01
Executive Summary. This paper analyzes the relation between demographic structure and real asset returns on Treasury bills, bonds, and stocks for the G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany). A macroeconomic multifactor model is used to examine a...
Optimal Pricing and Advertising Policies for New Product Oligopoly Models
Gerald L. Thompson; Jinn-Tsair Teng
1984-01-01
In this paper our previous work on monopoly and oligopoly new product models is extended by the addition of pricing as well as advertising control variables. These models contain Bass's demand growth model, and the Vidale-Wolfe and Ozga advertising models, as well as the production learning curve model and an exponential demand function. The problem of characterizing an optimal pricing and advertising policy over time is an important question in the field of marketing as well as in the areas ...
A remark on the set of arbitrage-free prices in a multi-period model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ranjan, Abhishek
2013-01-01
We study the convexity property of the set QF of arbitrage ‐ free prices of a multi ‐period financial structure F. The set of arbitrage‐free prices is shown to be a convex cone under conditions on the financial structure F that hold in particular for short ‐ lived assets. Furthermore, we provide ...
Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut
This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...... they are able to capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. Furthermore, we derive forward prices based on our spot price model. As it turns out, many of the classical spot models can be embedded into our novel modelling framework....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vojinovič Borut
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Though the paper focuses on pricing, as the background I provide some evidence about loan flows across markets in the form of borrowers’ and lenders’ propensity to issue outside their natural home market. The data show that borrowers stay home when they can and that they tend to issue in Europe when they must issue abroad. That is, borrowers domiciled in one of the major markets (Europe, U.S., and Asia almost always issue in that market, whereas borrowers in more remote locations usually issue in the European market. For example, borrowers from Latin America are overwhelmingly issuing in Europe rather than in the U.S. market.
Improved structural pricing model for the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah in Indonesia
Rosadi, D.; Muslim
2017-12-01
Shariah financial products are currently developing in Indonesia financial market. One of the most important products is called as Sukuk which is commonly referred to as "sharia compliant" bonds. The type of Sukuk that have been widely traded in Indonesia until now are Sukuk Ijarah and Sukuk Mudharabah. In [1], we discuss various models for the price of the fixed-non-callable Sukuk Ijarah and provide the empirical studies using data from Indonesia Bonds market. We found that the structural model considered in [1] cannot model the market price empirically well. In this paper, we consider the improved model and show that it performs well for modelling the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf
2012-01-01
This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily
Water desalination price from recent performances: Modelling, simulation and analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Metaiche, M.; Kettab, A.
2005-01-01
The subject of the present article is the technical simulation of seawater desalination, by a one stage reverse osmosis system, the objectives of which are the recent valuation of cost price through the use of new membrane and permeator performances, the use of new means of simulation and modelling of desalination parameters, and show the main parameters influencing the cost price. We have taken as the simulation example the Seawater Desalting centre of Djannet (Boumerdes, Algeria). The present performances allow water desalting at a price of 0.5 $/m 3 , which is an interesting and promising price, corresponding with the very acceptable water product quality, in the order of 269 ppm. It is important to run the desalting systems by reverse osmosis under high pressure, resulting in further decrease of the desalting cost and the production of good quality water. Aberration in choice of functioning conditions produces high prices and unacceptable quality. However there exists the possibility of decreasing the price by decreasing the requirement on the product quality. The seawater temperature has an effect on the cost price and quality. The installation of big desalting centres, contributes to the decrease in prices. A very important, long and tedious calculation is effected, which is impossible to conduct without programming and informatics tools. The use of the simulation model has been much efficient in the design of desalination centres that can perform at very improved prices. (author)
Analysing outsourcing policies in an asset management context : A six-stage model
Schoenmaker, R.; Verlaan, J.G.
2013-01-01
Asset managers of civil infrastructure are increasingly outsourcing their maintenance. Whereas maintenance is a cyclic process, decisions to outsource decisions are often project-based, and confusing the discussion on the degree of outsourcing. This paper presents a six-stage model that facilitates
A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire
Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2013-01-01
Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...
Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.
2017-12-01
Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.
Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing
Wagner, D. C.; Schmitt, T. A.; Schäfer, R.; Guhr, T.; Wolf, D. E.
2014-12-01
An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior in a wide parameter range. Second, we embed our decision model in an order book setting. Here, we observe interesting features which are not present in the equilibrium pricing scheme. In particular, we find a nontrivial behavior of the order book volumes which reminds of a trend switching phenomenon. Thus, the decision making model alone does not realistically represent the trading and the stylized facts. The order book mechanism is crucial.
On a Boltzmann-type price formation model
Burger, Martin
2013-06-26
In this paper, we present a Boltzmann-type price formation model, which is motivated by a parabolic free boundary model for the evolution of price presented by Lasry and Lions in 2007. We discuss the mathematical analysis of the Boltzmann-type model and show that its solutions converge to solutions of the model by Lasry and Lions as the transaction rate tends to infinity. Furthermore, we analyse the behaviour of the initial layer on the fast time scale and illustrate the price dynamics with various numerical experiments. © 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
On a Boltzmann-type price formation model
Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis A.; Markowich, Peter A.; Wolfram, Marie Therese
2013-01-01
In this paper, we present a Boltzmann-type price formation model, which is motivated by a parabolic free boundary model for the evolution of price presented by Lasry and Lions in 2007. We discuss the mathematical analysis of the Boltzmann-type model and show that its solutions converge to solutions of the model by Lasry and Lions as the transaction rate tends to infinity. Furthermore, we analyse the behaviour of the initial layer on the fast time scale and illustrate the price dynamics with various numerical experiments. © 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil
Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu
2015-02-01
Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.
Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V. K; Stentoft, Lars
2015-01-01
We propose an asymmetric GARCH in mean mixture model and provide a feasible method for option pricing within this general framework by deriving the appropriate risk neutral dynamics. We forecast the out-of-sample prices of a large sample of options on the S&P 500 index from January 2006 to December...
Pricing Models and Payment Schemes for Library Collections.
Stern, David
2002-01-01
Discusses new pricing and payment options for libraries in light of online products. Topics include alternative cost models rather than traditional subscriptions; use-based pricing; changes in scholarly communication due to information technology; methods to determine appropriate charges for different organizations; consortial plans; funding; and…
Formation of an Integrated Stock Price Forecast Model in Lithuania
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Audrius Dzikevičius
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.
Fuzzy pricing for urban water resources: model construction and application.
Zhao, Ranhang; Chen, Shouyu
2008-08-01
A rational water price system plays a crucial role in the optimal allocation of water resources. In this paper, a fuzzy pricing model for urban water resources is presented, which consists of a multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model and a water resources price (WRP) computation model. Various factors affecting WRP are comprehensively evaluated with multiple levels and objectives in the multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model, while the price vectors of water resources are constructed in the WRP computation model according to the definition of the bearing water price index, and then WRP is calculated. With the incorporation of an operator's knowledge, it considers iterative weights and subjective preference of operators for weight-assessment. The weights determined are more rational and the evaluation results are more realistic. Particularly, dual water supply is considered in the study. Different prices being fixed for water resources with different qualities conforms to the law of water resources value (WRV) itself. A high-quality groundwater price computation model is also proposed to provide optimal water allocation and to meet higher living standards. The developed model is applied in Jinan for evaluating its validity. The method presented in this paper offers some new directions in the research of WRP.
Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Claudio Monteiro
2018-04-01
Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Akkemik, K. Ali
2011-01-01
Recent reforms in the Turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs. This is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity. The changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy. Subsequently, producer and consumer prices will be affected. The potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in Turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households. This paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix (SAM) price modeling perspective. It is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy-producing sectors, mining, and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy. Consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices. - Research Highlights: → The impact of electricity generation costs on prices in other sectors is modeled. → A micro-SAM emphasizing electricity supply is constructed using 2002 I-O tables. → Energy, mining, and steel sectors are more responsive to electricity costs. → Living costs are less responsive to electricity cost changes than producer prices.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Petra Posedel
2006-12-01
Full Text Available The interest of professional investors in financial derivatives on the Croatian market is steadily increasing and trading is expected to start after the establishment of the legal framework. The quantification of the fair price of such financial instruments is therefore becoming increasingly important. Once the derivatives market is formed, the use of the Black-Scholes option pricing model is also expected. However, contrary to the assumptions of the Black-Scholes model, research in the field of option markets worldwide suggests that the volatility of the time-series returns is not constant over time. The present study analyzes the implications of volatility that changes over time for option pricing. The nonlinear-in-mean asymmetric GARCH model that reflects asymmetry in the distribution of returns and the correlation between returns and variance is recommended. For the purpose of illustration, we use the NGARCH model for the pricing of foreign currency options. Possible prices for such options having different strikes and maturities are then determined using Monte Carlo simulations. The improvement provided by the NGARCH model is that the option price is a function of the risk premium embedded in the underlying asset. This contrasts with the standard preference-free option pricing result that is obtained in the Black-Scholes model.
Derivative pricing with liquidity risk : Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market
Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.C.J.M.; Driessen, J.J.A.G.
2011-01-01
We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivatives, and short-selling due to hedging of nontraded risk. We show that illiquid assets can have lower expected returns if the short-sellers have more wealth, lower risk aversion, or shorter horizon. The pricing of
William T. Smith; Qiang Zhang
2006-01-01
Multiplicative habit introduces an additional consumption risk as a determinant of equity premium, and allows time preference and habit strength, in addition to risk aversion, to affect "price of risk". A model combining multiplicative habit and power-expo preferences cannot be rejected.
A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kanamura, Takashi
2009-01-01
This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)
A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)
2009-09-15
This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)
Models and Tabu Search Metaheuristics for Service Network Design with Asset-Balance Requirements
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Michael Berliner; Crainic, T.G.; Madsen, Oli B.G.
2009-01-01
This paper focuses on a generic model for service network design, which includes asset positioning and utilization through constraints on asset availability at terminals. We denote these relations as "design-balance constraints" and focus on the design-balanced capacitated multicommodity network...... design model, a generalization of the capacitated multicommodity network design model generally used in service network design applications. Both arc-and cycle-based formulations for the new model are presented. The paper also proposes a tabu search metaheuristic framework for the arc-based formulation....... Results on a wide range of network design problem instances from the literature indicate the proposed method behaves very well in terms of computational efficiency and solution quality....
Intraday Price Discovery in Fragmented Markets
S.R. Ozturk (Sait); M. van der Wel (Michel); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)
2014-01-01
textabstractFor many assets, trading is fragmented across multiple exchanges. Price discovery measures summarize the informativeness of trading on each venue for discovering the asset’s true underlying value. We explore intraday variation in price discovery using a structural model with
Can producer currency pricing models generate volatile real exchange rates?
Povoledo, L.
2012-01-01
If the elasticities of substitution between traded and nontraded and between Home and Foreign traded goods are sufficiently low, then the real exchange rate generated by a model with full producer currency pricing is as volatile as in the data.
Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carini Manuela
2017-12-01
Full Text Available This study proposes an innovative methodology, named Repeat Appraised Price Model (RAV, useful for determining the price index numbers for real estate markets and the corresponding index numbers of hedonic prices of main real estate characteristics in the case of a lack of data. The methodological approach proposed in this paper aims to appraise the time series of price index numbers. It integrates the principles of the method of repeat sales with the peculiarities of the Hedonic Price Method, overcoming the problem of an almost total absence of repeat sales for the same property in a given time range; on the other hand, the technique aims to overcome the limitation of the repeat sales technique concerning the inability to take into account the characteristics of individual properties.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meyer, Theodore A.; Perdue, Robert K.; Woodcock, Joel; Elder, G. Gary
2002-01-01
Experience has shown that proactive aging/asset management can best be defined as an ongoing process. Station goals directly supported by such a process include reducing Unplanned Capability Loss Factor and gaining the optimum value from maintenance and aging management budgets. An effective aging/asset management process must meet evolving and sometimes conflicting requirements for efficient and reliable nuclear power plant operation. The process should identify most likely contributors before they fail, and develop cost-effective contingencies. Current trends indicate the need for focused tools that give quantitative input to decision-making. Opposing goals, such as increasing availability while optimizing aging management budgets, must be balanced. Recognizing the importance of experience in reducing the uncertainty inherent in predicting equipment degradation rates, nuclear industry demographics suggest the need to capture existing expert knowledge in a usable form. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Process has been developed to address these needs. The proactive approach is a process supported by tools. The process identifies goals and develops criteria - including safety, costs, and power production - that are used to prioritize systems and equipment across the plant. The process then draws upon tools to most effectively meet the plant's goals. The Proactive Aging/Asset Management Model TM is one software-enabled tool designed for mathematical optimization. Results assist a plant in developing a plant-wide plan of aging management activities. This paper describes the proactive aging/asset management process and provides an overview of the methodology that has been incorporated in a model to perform a plant-wide optimization of aging management activities. (authors)
Modelling price determination in South Africa
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E Moolman
2004-07-01
Full Text Available South Africa has been faced with high inflation rates since the early 1970s. Despite continued monetary discipline the inflation target has not yet been met, highlighting South Africa’s price-vulnerability as a small open emerging economy and raising questions about the efficiency of monetary policy. The objectives of this paper are: (i to analyse the influence of monetary policy on inflation in the small open emerging economy of South Africa, (ii to highlight the channels other than monetary policy through which inflation can be influenced (iii to analyse the influence of international prices and the exchange rate on inflation, (iv to determine the role of the labour market on inflation, especially through wage-push dynamics and (v to determine the role of demand-pull factors on inflation.
Modelling conditional correlations of asset returns: A smooth transition approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo
In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of ve...
Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations
Markowich, Peter A.
2016-10-04
In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.
Extending PSA models including ageing and asset management - 15291
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martorell, S.; Marton, I.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.
2015-01-01
This paper proposes a new approach to Ageing Probabilistic Safety Assessment (APSA) modelling, which is intended to be used to support risk-informed decisions on the effectiveness of maintenance management programs and technical specification requirements of critical equipment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) within the framework of the Risk Informed Decision Making according to R.G. 1.174 principles. This approach focuses on the incorporation of not only equipment ageing but also effectiveness of maintenance and efficiency of surveillance testing explicitly into APSA models and data. This methodology is applied to a motor-operated valve of the auxiliary feed water system (AFWS) of a PWR. This simple example of application focuses on a critical safety-related equipment of a NPP in order to evaluate the risk impact of considering different approaches to APSA and the combined effect of equipment ageing and maintenance and testing alternatives along NPP design life. The risk impact of several alternatives in maintenance strategy is discussed
EXPLANATORY MODEL OF SPOT PRICE OF IRON ORE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Juan Enrique Villalva A.
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to construct an explanatory model of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. For this, the method of multiple linear regressions was used. As a dependent variable, the spot price of iron ore (62% Fe China Tianjin port was taken, between 2010 and 2013. As independents variables were taken seven variables of international iron ore market. The resulting model includes variables: Iron ore inventory in Chinese ports, Baltic Dry Index (BDI, Iron ore exports from Brazil & Australia and Chinese Rebar Steel Price, as explanatory variables of the behavior of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. The model has an adjusted coefficient of determination R2 of 0.90, and was validated by comparing its predictions vs. known values of 2014.
Bond and CDS Pricing via the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Albert Cohen
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Building on recent work incorporating recovery risk into structural models by Cohen & Costanzino (2015, we consider the Black-Cox model with an added recovery risk driver. The recovery risk driver arises naturally in the context of imperfect information implicit in the structural framework. This leads to a two-factor structural model we call the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox model, whereby the asset risk driver At defines the default trigger and the recovery risk driver Rt defines the amount recovered in the event of default. We then price zero-coupon bonds and credit default swaps under the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox model. Finally, we compare our results with the classic Black-Cox model, give explicit expressions for the recovery risk premium in the Stochastic Recovery Black-Cox model, and detail how the introduction of separate but correlated risk drivers leads to a decoupling of the default and recovery risk premiums in the credit spread. We conclude this work by computing the effect of adding coupons that are paid continuously until default, and price perpetual (consol bonds in our two-factor firm value model, extending calculations in the seminal paper by Leland (1994.
Defining Requirements and Applying Information Modeling for Protecting Enterprise Assets
Fortier, Stephen C.; Volk, Jennifer H.
The advent of terrorist threats has heightened local, regional, and national governments' interest in emergency response and disaster preparedness. The threat of natural disasters also challenges emergency responders to act swiftly and in a coordinated fashion. When a disaster occurs, an ad hoc coalition of pre-planned groups usually forms to respond to the incident. History has shown that these “system of systems” do not interoperate very well. Communications between fire, police and rescue components either do not work or are inefficient. Government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and private industry use a wide array of software platforms for managing data about emergency conditions, resources and response activities. Most of these are stand-alone systems with very limited capability for data sharing with other agencies or other levels of government. Information technology advances have facilitated the movement towards an integrated and coordinated approach to emergency management. Other communication mechanisms, such as video teleconferencing, digital television and radio broadcasting, are being utilized to combat the challenges of emergency information exchange. Recent disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina and the tsunami in Indonesia, have illuminated the weaknesses in emergency response. This paper will discuss the need for defining requirements for components of ad hoc coalitions which are formed to respond to disasters. A goal of our effort was to develop a proof of concept that applying information modeling to the business processes used to protect and mitigate potential loss of an enterprise was feasible. These activities would be modeled both pre- and post-incident.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig Vinther
By using a beginning-of-period timing convention for consumption, and by including the Great Depression years in the analysis, we show that on annual data from 1926 to 2009 a standard contemporaneous consumption risk model goes a long way in explaining the size and value premiums in cross......-sectional data that include both the Fama-French portfolios and industry portfolios. A long run consumption risk variant of the model also produces a high cross-sectional …t. In addition, the equity premium puzzle is signi…cantly reduced in the models. We argue that in evaluating consumption based models...
Premium Pricing of Liability Insurance Using Random Sum Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mujiati Dwi Kartikasari
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Premium pricing is one of important activities in insurance. Nonlife insurance premium is calculated from expected value of historical data claims. The historical data claims are collected so that it forms a sum of independent random number which is called random sum. In premium pricing using random sum, claim frequency distribution and claim severity distribution are combined. The combination of these distributions is called compound distribution. By using liability claim insurance data, we analyze premium pricing using random sum model based on compound distribution
The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices
Francke, M.K.; Vos, G.A.
2002-01-01
This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends,
Business model analysis in asset management : the case JRS Finanzmandate Gmbh
Rogg, Christina
2016-01-01
This bachelor’s thesis was prepared to solve a current business case on behalf of JRS Finanzmandate GmbH, a German independent financial advisory and asset management company. The objectives of this thesis were to thoroughly examine the JRS business model, observe the competitive environment and detect future market opportunities. After identification of arising challenges, innovative approaches to achieve a competitive advantage within this niche industry were illustrated. Financ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1991-01-01
The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored
Modeling and Forecasting Average Temperature for Weather Derivative Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiliang Wang
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present a feasible model for the daily average temperature on the area of Zhengzhou and apply it to weather derivatives pricing. We start by exploring the background of weather derivatives market and then use the 62 years of daily historical data to apply the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to describe the evolution of the temperature. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to price heating degree day (HDD call option for this city, and the slow convergence of the price of the HDD call can be found through taking 100,000 simulations. The methods of the research will provide a frame work for modeling temperature and pricing weather derivatives in other similar places in China.
Comparative analysis of used car price evaluation models
Chen, Chuancan; Hao, Lulu; Xu, Cong
2017-05-01
An accurate used car price evaluation is a catalyst for the healthy development of used car market. Data mining has been applied to predict used car price in several articles. However, little is studied on the comparison of using different algorithms in used car price estimation. This paper collects more than 100,000 used car dealing records throughout China to do empirical analysis on a thorough comparison of two algorithms: linear regression and random forest. These two algorithms are used to predict used car price in three different models: model for a certain car make, model for a certain car series and universal model. Results show that random forest has a stable but not ideal effect in price evaluation model for a certain car make, but it shows great advantage in the universal model compared with linear regression. This indicates that random forest is an optimal algorithm when handling complex models with a large number of variables and samples, yet it shows no obvious advantage when coping with simple models with less variables.
Do expert ratings or economic models explain champagne prices?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar
2008-01-01
Champagne is bought with low frequency and many consumers most likely do not have or seek full information on the quality of champagne. Some consumers may rely on the reputation of particular brands, e.g. "Les Grandes Marques", some consumers choose to gain information from sensory ratings...... of champagne. The aim of this paper is to analyse the champagne prices on the Scandinavian markets by applying a hedonic price function in a comparative framework with minimal models using sensory ratings....
A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bennedsen, Mikkel
2017-01-01
We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting
Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model
Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti
2014-12-01
World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.
Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter
While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order...... moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chidimma Odira Okeke
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This study is an effort to propose a conceptual model to measure the impact assessment of entrepreneurship pedagogic. It delineates entrepreneurship education pedagogic into four dimensions and opined specific level for each dimension. Reviewing the entrepreneurship education programme, assessment of entrepreneurship pedagogic evaluates the structure that influence growth mindset development through embedded heuristic strategies, thus, the impact on entrepreneurship knowledge and entrepreneurial capital asset context is proposed. Affirming Fayolle, Gailly, and Lassa-Clerc conceptual affinity that entrepreneurship education share with learning theories and entrepreneurship pedagogical content knowledge were conceptualized to suggest some practical realism guidelines of what insightful philosophy of teaching entrepreneurship need to achieve. With direct synthesis of relevant literature, propositions relating to entrepreneurship pedagogic structure along with the institutional connectedness and associated dimensions of entrepreneurship pedagogic assessment outcome were postulated. Also, the paper proposes the need for further assessment of specific forms of pedagogic impact on entrepreneurial human capital asset.
Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1994-04-07
The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.
End-of-life conversations and care: an asset-based model for community engagement.
Matthiesen, Mary; Froggatt, Katherine; Owen, Elaine; Ashton, John R
2014-09-01
Public awareness work regarding palliative and end-of-life care is increasingly promoted within national strategies for palliative care. Different approaches to undertaking this work are being used, often based upon broader educational principles, but little is known about how to undertake such initiatives in a way that equally engages both the health and social care sector and the local communities. An asset-based community engagement approach has been developed that facilitates community-led awareness initiatives concerning end-of-life conversations and care by identifying and connecting existing skills and expertise. (1) To describe the processes and features of an asset-based community engagement approach that facilitates community-led awareness initiatives with a focus on end-of-life conversations and care; and (2) to identify key community-identified priorities for sustainable community engagement processes. An asset-based model of community engagement specific to end-of-life issues using a four-step process is described (getting started, coming together, action planning and implementation). The use of this approach, in two regional community engagement programmes, based across rural and urban communities in the northwest of England, is described. The assets identified in the facilitated community engagement process encompassed people's talents and skills, community groups and networks, government and non-government agencies, physical and economic assets and community values and stories. Five priority areas were addressed to ensure active community engagement work: information, outreach, education, leadership and sustainability. A facilitated, asset-based approach of community engagement for end-of-life conversations and care can catalyse community-led awareness initiatives. This occurs through the involvement of community and local health and social care organisations as co-creators of this change across multiple sectors in a sustainable way. This approach
Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bijay Neupane
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.
Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. de; Souza e Silva, Edmundo A. de; Legey, Luiz F.L.
2010-01-01
The crude oil price is influenced by a great number of factors, most of which interact in very complex ways. For this reason, forecasting it through a fundamentalist approach is a difficult task. An alternative is to use time series methodologies, with which the price's past behavior is conveniently analyzed, and used to predict future movements. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of a nonlinear time series model, known as hidden Markov model (HMM), to predict future crude oil price movements. Using an HMM, we develop a forecasting methodology that consists of, basically, three steps. First, we employ wavelet analysis to remove high frequency price movements, which can be assumed as noise. Then, the HMM is used to forecast the probability distribution of the price return accumulated over the next F days. Finally, from this distribution, we infer future price trends. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology might be a useful decision support tool for agents participating in the crude oil market. (author)
Optimal Retail Price Model for Partial Consignment to Multiple Retailers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Po-Yu Chen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the product pricing decision-making problem under a consignment stock policy in a two-level supply chain composed of one supplier and multiple retailers. The effects of the supplier’s wholesale prices and its partial inventory cost absorption of the retail prices of retailers with different market shares are investigated. In the partial product consignment model this paper proposes, the seller and the retailers each absorb part of the inventory costs. This model also provides general solutions for the complete product consignment and the traditional policy that adopts no product consignment. In other words, both the complete consignment and nonconsignment models are extensions of the proposed model (i.e., special cases. Research results indicated that the optimal retail price must be between 1/2 (50% and 2/3 (66.67% times the upper limit of the gross profit. This study also explored the results and influence of parameter variations on optimal retail price in the model.
Stenzel, A.; Wagner, W.B.
2013-01-01
Abstract: We consider a model of private information acquisition in which the cost of information depends on an asset's opacity. The model generates a hump-shaped relationship between opacity and the equilibrium amount of private information. In particular, the incentives to acquire information are largest for assets of intermediate opacity; such assets hence display low liquidity in the secondary market due to adverse selection. We also show that costly information acquisition generates ince...
Full field reservoir modeling of shale assets using advanced data-driven analytics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Soodabeh Esmaili
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Hydrocarbon production from shale has attracted much attention in the recent years. When applied to this prolific and hydrocarbon rich resource plays, our understanding of the complexities of the flow mechanism (sorption process and flow behavior in complex fracture systems - induced or natural leaves much to be desired. In this paper, we present and discuss a novel approach to modeling, history matching of hydrocarbon production from a Marcellus shale asset in southwestern Pennsylvania using advanced data mining, pattern recognition and machine learning technologies. In this new approach instead of imposing our understanding of the flow mechanism, the impact of multi-stage hydraulic fractures, and the production process on the reservoir model, we allow the production history, well log, completion and hydraulic fracturing data to guide our model and determine its behavior. The uniqueness of this technology is that it incorporates the so-called “hard data” directly into the reservoir model, so that the model can be used to optimize the hydraulic fracture process. The “hard data” refers to field measurements during the hydraulic fracturing process such as fluid and proppant type and amount, injection pressure and rate as well as proppant concentration. This novel approach contrasts with the current industry focus on the use of “soft data” (non-measured, interpretive data such as frac length, width, height and conductivity in the reservoir models. The study focuses on a Marcellus shale asset that includes 135 wells with multiple pads, different landing targets, well length and reservoir properties. The full field history matching process was successfully completed using this data driven approach thus capturing the production behavior with acceptable accuracy for individual wells and for the entire asset.
Dynamic room pricing model for hotel revenue management systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Heba Abdel Aziz
2011-11-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of room pricing in hotels. We propose a hotel revenue management model based on dynamic pricing to provide hotel managers with a flexible and efficient decision support tool for room revenue maximization. The two pillars of the proposed framework are a novel optimization model, and a multi-class scheme similar to the one implemented in airlines. Our hypothesis is that this framework can overcome the limitations associated with the research gaps in pricing literature; and can also contribute significantly in increasing the revenue of hotels. We test this hypothesis on three different approaches, and the results show an increase in revenue compared to the classical model used in literature.
Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices
Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas
2017-01-01
We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...
Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations
Markowich, Peter A.; Teichmann, Josef; Wolfram, Marie Therese
2016-01-01
In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present
Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets
Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola
2017-11-01
This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.
Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.
2016-01-01
We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.
Asset pricing with index investing
Georgy Chabakauri; Oleg Rytchkov
2014-01-01
We provide a novel theoretical analysis of how index investing affects capital market equilibrium. We consider a dynamic exchange economy with heterogeneous investors and two Lucas trees and find that indexing can either increase or decrease the correlation between stock returns and in general increases (decreases) volatilities and betas of stocks with larger (smaller) market capitalizations. Indexing also decreases market volatility and interest rates, although those effects are weak. The im...
Downside Risk and Asset Pricing
G.T. Post (Thierry); P. van Vliet (Pim)
2004-01-01
textabstractWe analyze if the value-weighted stock market portfolio is second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) efficient relative to benchmark portfolios formed on size, value, and momentum. In the process, we also develop several methodological improvements to the existing tests for SSD efficiency.
Dynamic pricing models for electronic business
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
learning. We present a detailed example of an e-business market to show the ... to auction based models and §6 is devoted to game theoretic models. ..... Machine learning models: An e-business market provides a rich playground for online.
Modelling and Forecasting Stock Price Movements with Serially Dependent Determinants
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rasika Yatigammana
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The direction of price movements are analysed under an ordered probit framework, recognising the importance of accounting for discreteness in price changes. By extending the work of Hausman et al. (1972 and Yang and Parwada (2012,This paper focuses on improving the forecast performance of the model while infusing a more practical perspective by enhancing flexibility. This is achieved by extending the existing framework to generate short term multi period ahead forecasts for better decision making, whilst considering the serial dependence structure. This approach enhances the flexibility and adaptability of the model to future price changes, particularly targeting risk minimisation. Empirical evidence is provided, based on seven stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX. The prediction success varies between 78 and 91 per cent for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts for both the short term and long term.
Modeling of price and profit in coupled-ring networks
Tangmongkollert, Kittiwat; Suwanna, Sujin
2016-06-01
We study the behaviors of magnetization, price, and profit profiles in ring networks in the presence of the external magnetic field. The Ising model is used to determine the state of each node, which is mapped to the buy-or-sell state in a financial market, where +1 is identified as the buying state, and -1 as the selling state. Price and profit mechanisms are modeled based on the assumption that price should increase if demand is larger than supply, and it should decrease otherwise. We find that the magnetization can be induced between two rings via coupling links, where the induced magnetization strength depends on the number of the coupling links. Consequently, the price behaves linearly with time, where its rate of change depends on the magnetization. The profit grows like a quadratic polynomial with coefficients dependent on the magnetization. If two rings have opposite direction of net spins, the price flows in the direction of the majority spins, and the network with the minority spins gets a loss in profit.
Charge Pricing Optimization Model for Private Charging Piles in Beijing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xingping Zhang
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This paper develops a charge pricing model for private charging piles (PCPs by considering the environmental and economic effects of private electric vehicle (PEV charging energy sources and the impact of PCP charging load on the total load. This model simulates users’ responses to different combinations of peak-valley prices based on the charging power of PCPs and user charging transfer rate. According to the regional power structure, it calculates the real-time coal consumption, carbon dioxide emissions reduction, and power generation costs of PEVs on the power generation side. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed peak-valley time-of-use charging price can not only minimize the peak-valley difference of the total load but also improve the environmental effects of PEVs and the economic income of the power system. The sensitivity analysis shows that the load-shifting effect of PCPs will be more obvious when magnifying the number of PEVs by using the proposed charging price. The case study indicates that the proposed peak, average, and valley price in Beijing should be 1.8, 1, and 0.4 yuan/kWh, which can promote the large-scale adoption of PEVs.
Managing assets in the infrastructure sector
van Houten, T.P.; Zhang, L.
2010-01-01
In view of the importance of managing assets and the lack of research in managing assets in the infrastructure sector, we develop an asset management model in this study. This model is developed in line with the unique characteristics of the infrastructure assets and asset management principles and
Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices
Hommes, C.; in 't Veld, D.
2014-01-01
The global financial crisis indicated the limitations of representative rational agent models for asset pricing solely based on economic fundamentals. We estimate a simple behavioural heterogeneous agents model with boundedly rational traders in which the fundamental value of the stock prices is
Stock Market Integration: Are Risk Premiums of International Assets Equal?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kusdhianto Setiawan
2014-02-01
Full Text Available This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.
ELMO model predicts the price of electric power
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antila, H.
2001-01-01
Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons
A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard
2007-01-01
A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject...... to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilat- eral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between essen- tially a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price...
Estimating Structural Models of Corporate Bond Prices in Indonesian Corporations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lenny Suardi
2014-08-01
Full Text Available This paper applies the maximum likelihood (ML approaches to implementing the structural model of corporate bond, as suggested by Li and Wong (2008, in Indonesian corporations. Two structural models, extended Merton and Longstaff & Schwartz (LS models, are used in determining these prices, yields, yield spreads and probabilities of default. ML estimation is used to determine the volatility of irm value. Since irm value is unobserved variable, Duan (1994 suggested that the irst step of ML estimation is to derive the likelihood function for equity as the option on the irm value. The second step is to ind parameters such as the drift and volatility of irm value, that maximizing this function. The irm value itself is extracted by equating the pricing formula to the observed equity prices. Equity, total liabilities, bond prices data and the irm's parameters (irm value, volatility of irm value, and default barrier are substituted to extended Merton and LS bond pricing formula in order to valuate the corporate bond.These models are implemented to a sample of 24 bond prices in Indonesian corporation during period of 2001-2005, based on criteria of Eom, Helwege and Huang (2004. The equity and bond prices data were obtained from Indonesia Stock Exchange for irms that issued equity and provided regular inancial statement within this period. The result shows that both models, in average, underestimate the bond prices and overestimate the yields and yield spread. ";} // -->activate javascript
Modelling asset correlations during the recent financial crisis: A semiparametric approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Aslanidis, Nektarios; Casas, Isabel
This article proposes alternatives to the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model to study assets' correlations during the recent financial crisis. In particular, we adopt a semiparametric and nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional correlations for two interesting portfolios....... The first portfolio consists of equity sectors SPDRs and the S&P 500 composite, while the second one contains major currencies that are actively traded in the foreign exchange market. Methodologically, our contribution is two fold. First, we propose the Local Linear (LL) estimator for the correlations...
Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer
2006-01-01
The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC
Demography, Capital Flows and Asset Allocation over the Life-cycle
Mann, Katja; Davenport, Margaret
2016-01-01
This paper studies the effect of population aging on portfolio choice, asset prices and international asset trades. In a multi-period OLG model, we analyze how an increase in longevity or a decrease in fertility in a country affects the demand for safe and risky assets. In a closed economy, given a fixed supply, the riskfree rate falls and the risk premium rises, because retirees prefer to hold a larger share of safe assets in their portfolio than working-age households. In a financially inte...
Asset liability management modeling using multi-stage mixed-integer stochastic programming
Drijver, S.J.; Klein Haneveld, W.K.; van der Vlerk, Maarten H.
2000-01-01
A pension fund has to match the portfolio of long-term liabilities with the portfolio of assets. Key instruments in strategic Asset Liability Management (ALM) are the adjustments of the contribution rate of the sponsor and the reallocation of the investments in several asset classes at various
Price Tails in the Smith and Farmer's Model
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šmíd, Martin
2008-01-01
Roč. 15, č. 25 (2008), s. 31-40 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/07/1113; GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/1417 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : limit order market * continuous double auction * price increments * fat tails * tail exponent Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-price tails in the smith and farmer's model.pdf
A mathematical model for stock price forecasting | Ogwuche | West ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
) and the covariance (the volatility) of the change were computed leading to the formulation of the system of linear stochastic differential equations. To fit data to the model, changes in the prices of the stocks were studied for an average of 30 ...
A Model of Price Search Behavior in Electronic Marketplace.
Jiang, Pingjun
2002-01-01
Discussion of online consumer behavior focuses on the development of a conceptual model and a set of propositions to explain the main factors influencing online price search. Integrates the psychological search literature into the context of online searching by incorporating ability and cost to search for information into perceived search…
On option pricing models in the presence of heavy tails
Vellekoop, Michel; Nieuwenhuis, Hans
2007-01-01
We propose a modification of the option pricing framework derived by Borland which removes the possibilities for arbitrage within this framework. It turns out that such arbitrage possibilities arise due to an incorrect derivation of the martingale transformation in the non-Gaussian option models
A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao, Hong
2010-01-01
We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mario Antonio Margarido
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This study aims to determine and analyze the spatial elasticity (or horizontal of price transmission between international sugar prices and the average price received by the Brazilian exporter of sugar, using the Structural Model. The data used are from January/2004 to November/2015. As a result, variations of 1% in the international sugar price are transmitted to the average price received by Brazilian sugar exporters with a magnitude of 0.3% on average, setting inelastic relationship between the two variables and, consequently, the non-occurrence of the law of one price. So, there are mechanisms in this market that are hindering the full functioning of the arbitration. This situation is not unusual, because the sugar is one of the most commercially protected product and suffer much interference.
Complex Price Dynamics in the Modified Kaldorian Model
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kodera, Jan; Van Tran, Q.; Vošvrda, Miloslav
2013-01-01
Roč. 22, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-384 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Priice dynamics, * numerical examples * two-equation model * four-equation model * nonlinear time series analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.208, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kodera-model of price dynamics and chaos.pdf
Application for Single Price Auction Model (SPA) in AC Network
Wachi, Tsunehisa; Fukutome, Suguru; Chen, Luonan; Makino, Yoshinori; Koshimizu, Gentarou
This paper aims to develop a single price auction model with AC transmission network, based on the principle of maximizing social surplus of electricity market. Specifically, we first formulate the auction market as a nonlinear optimization problem, which has almost the same form as the conventional optimal power flow problem, and then propose an algorithm to derive both market clearing price and trade volume of each player even for the case of market-splitting. As indicated in the paper, the proposed approach can be used not only for the price evaluation of auction or bidding market but also for analysis of bidding strategy, congestion effect and other constraints or factors. Several numerical examples are used to demonstrate effectiveness of our method.
Jump diffusion models and the evolution of financial prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de; Silva, Sergio da; Gleria, Iram
2011-01-01
We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. We consider the stochastic term as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. We point to the effects of the jumps on the return time evolution, a central concern of the econophysics literature. The presence of jumps suggests that the process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. We then extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model and show the model to be capable of explaining return behavior. -- Highlights: → We analyze a stochastic model to describe the evolution of financial prices. → The stochastic term is considered as a sum of the Wiener noise and a jump process. → The process can be described by an infinitely divisible characteristic function belonging to the De Finetti class. → We extend the De Finetti functions to a generalized nonlinear model.
Heterogeneity and option pricing
Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram
2000-01-01
An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.
Valuing water resources in Switzerland using a hedonic price model
van Dijk, Diana; Siber, Rosi; Brouwer, Roy; Logar, Ivana; Sanadgol, Dorsa
2016-05-01
In this paper, linear and spatial hedonic price models are applied to the housing market in Switzerland, covering all 26 cantons in the country over the period 2005-2010. Besides structural house, neighborhood and socioeconomic characteristics, we include a wide variety of new environmental characteristics related to water to examine their role in explaining variation in sales prices. These include water abundance, different types of water bodies, the recreational function of water, and water disamenity. Significant spatial autocorrelation is found in the estimated models, as well as nonlinear effects for distances to the nearest lake and large river. Significant effects are furthermore found for water abundance and the distance to large rivers, but not to small rivers. Although in both linear and spatial models water related variables explain less than 1% of the price variation, the distance to the nearest bathing site has a larger marginal contribution than many neighborhood-related distance variables. The housing market shows to differentiate between different water related resources in terms of relative contribution to house prices, which could help the housing development industry make more geographically targeted planning activities.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carl-Johan Petri
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to describe how the biggest Swedish taxi company (Taxi Kurir developed an innovative price model to leverage the business model. Design/methodology/approach : The empirical data in the article describe Taxi Kurir’s development of a new price model. Data about the Swedish taxi market and about Taxi Kurir has been compiled though interviews and document studies. Detailed information about the background, development and implementation of Taxi Kurir’s new price model has been captured through interviews with representatives from Taxi Kurir. Findings : Based on both the empirical example, and other investigations, we have found that a company can create substantial changes in their price model, by just changing some of its basic characteristics. A well designed price model can contribute to leveraging the intentions of the business model. Practical implications : Most academic and practical texts about business models consider pricing to be an important component. However, they typically do not refer to the specifics of the price- or revenue models. According to the literature review in this paper, and the empirical findings, the configuration of a company’s price model should be aligned with its business model. This will contribute to leveraging the business model. Originality/value: The Swedish taxi market is one of the most deregulated in the world. Differently from most other countries, any individual or company can start and operate a taxi business. This case offers a unique description on how the biggest company in the market responded to the competition by introducing a fundamentally new price model, by making a small change in one of the dimensions in their existing price model.
Basel III and Asset Securitization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Mpundu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Asset securitization via special purpose entities involves the process of transforming assets into securities that are issued to investors. These investors hold the rights to payments supported by the cash flows from an asset pool held by the said entity. In this paper, we discuss the mechanism by which low- and high-quality entities securitize low- and high-quality assets, respectively, into collateralized debt obligations. During the 2007–2009 financial crisis, asset securitization was seriously inhibited. In response to this, for instance, new Basel III capital and liquidity regulations were introduced. Here, we find that we can explicitly determine the transaction costs related to low-quality asset securitization. Also, in the case of dynamic and static multipliers, the effects of unexpected negative shocks such as rating downgrades on asset price and input, debt obligation price and output, and profit will be quantified. In this case, we note that Basel III has been designed to provide countercyclical capital buffers to negate procyclicality. Moreover, we will develop an illustrative example of low-quality asset securitization for subprime mortgages. Furthermore, numerical examples to illustrate the key results will be provided. In addition, connections between Basel III and asset securitization will be highlighted.
Modeling of materials supply, demand and prices
1982-01-01
The societal, economic, and policy tradeoffs associated with materials processing and utilization, are discussed. The materials system provides the materials engineer with the system analysis required for formulate sound materials processing, utilization, and resource development policies and strategies. Materials system simulation and modeling research program including assessments of materials substitution dynamics, public policy implications, and materials process economics was expanded. This effort includes several collaborative programs with materials engineers, economists, and policy analysts. The technical and socioeconomic issues of materials recycling, input-output analysis, and technological change and productivity are examined. The major thrust areas in materials systems research are outlined.
Bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model
Ekström, Erik
2006-01-01
We provide bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model in terms of American option prices in the standard Black-Scholes model. We also investigate the dependence of the bounds on different parameters of the model.
Business Models, transparency and efficient stock price formation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Christian; Vali, Edward; Hvidberg, Rene
has an impact on a company's price formation. In this respect, we analysed whether those companies that publish a lot of information that may support a business model description tend to have a more efficient price formation. Next, we turned to our sample of companies, and via interview-based case...... studies, we managed to draw conclusions on how to construct a comprehensible business model description. The business model explains how the company intends to compete in its market, and thus it gives an account of the characteristics that make the company unique. The business model constitutes...... the platform from which the company prepares and unfolds its strategy. In order to explain this platform and its particular qualities to external interested parties, the description must provide a clear and explicit account of the main determinants of the company's value creation and explain how...
Transfer prices assignment with integrated production and marketing optimization models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Enrique Parra
2018-04-01
Full Text Available Purpose: In decentralized organizations (today a great majority of the large multinational groups, much of the decision-making power is in its individual business units-BUs-. In these cases, the management control system (MCS uses transfer prices to coordinate actions of the BUs and to evaluate their performance with the goal of guaranteeing the whole corporation optimum. The purpose of the investigation is to design transfer prices that suit this goal. Design/methodology/approach: Considering the results of the whole company supply chain optimization models (in the presence of seasonality of demand the question is to design a mechanism that creates optimal incentives for the managers of each business unit to drive the corporation to the optimal performance. Mathematical programming models are used as a start point. Findings: Different transfer prices computation methods are introduced in this paper for decentralised organizations with two divisions (production and marketing. The methods take into account the results of the solution of the whole company supply chain optimization model, if exists, and can be adapted to the type of information available in the company. It is mainly focused on transport costs assignment. Practical implications: Using the methods proposed in this paper a decentralized corporation can implement more accurate transfer prices to drive the whole organization to the global optimum performance. Originality/value: The methods proposed are a new contribution to the literature on transfer prices with special emphasis on the practical and easy implementation in a modern corporation with several business units and with high seasonality of demand. Also, the methods proposed are very flexible and can be tuned depending on the type of information available in the company.
Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for the reconstruction of bipartite financial networks
Squartini, Tiziano; Almog, Assaf; Caldarelli, Guido; Van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego; Cimini, Giulio
2017-01-01
Reconstructing patterns of interconnections from partial information is one of the most important issues in the statistical physics of complex networks. A paramount example is provided by financial networks. In fact, the spreading and amplification of financial distress in capital markets are
Confidence limits for data mining models of options prices
Healy, J. V.; Dixon, M.; Read, B. J.; Cai, F. F.
2004-12-01
Non-parametric methods such as artificial neural nets can successfully model prices of financial options, out-performing the Black-Scholes analytic model (Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 219). However, the accuracy of such approaches is usually expressed only by a global fitting/error measure. This paper describes a robust method for determining prediction intervals for models derived by non-linear regression. We have demonstrated it by application to a standard synthetic example (29th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Special Session on Intelligent Systems, pp. 1926-1931). The method is used here to obtain prediction intervals for option prices using market data for LIFFE “ESX” FTSE 100 index options ( http://www.liffe.com/liffedata/contracts/month_onmonth.xls). We avoid special neural net architectures and use standard regression procedures to determine local error bars. The method is appropriate for target data with non constant variance (or volatility).
Pricing Models of e-Books When Competing with p-Books
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yan Li
2013-01-01
Full Text Available With the rise in popularity of e-books, there is a growing need to reexamine the pricing strategy in the e-book supply chain. In this paper, we study two forms of pricing models widely used in the book industry: wholesale and agency pricing models. We first assume a stylized deterministic demand model in which the demand depends on the price, the degree of substitution, and the overall market potential. Subsequently, we employ the game theory to determine the price equilibriums and profit distribution under different pricing models. Finally, we explore the behavior of the publisher and the retailer under different preferences and degrees of substitution through a computational study. Our findings indicate that the e-book price will be lower under the agency pricing model than under the wholesale pricing model, which is counterintuitive. The publishers have higher incentives to adopt the agency pricing model than the wholesale pricing model. The agency pricing model benefits the whole system and can provide readers with books at lower prices. The degree of substitution between the two forms of books and the readers’ preference toward e-book will affect the books’ price and the profit distribution between the publisher and the retailers.
A risk assessment model based on fuzzy logic for electricity distribution system asset management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alireza Yazdani
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Electricity distribution systems are considered as the most critical sectors in countries because of the essentiality of power supplement security, socioeconomic security, and way of life. According to the central role of electricity distribution systems, risk analysis helps decision maker determine the most serious risk items to allocate the optimal amount of resources and time. Probability-impact (PI matrix is one of the most popular methods for assessment of the risks involved in the system. However, the traditional PI matrix is criticized for its inability to take into account the inherent uncertainty imposed by real-world systems. On the other hand, fuzzy sets are capable of handling the uncertainty. Thus, in this paper, fuzzy risk assessment model is developed in order to assess risk and management for electricity distribution system asset protection. Finally, a comparison analysis is conducted to show the effectiveness and the capability of the new risk assessment model.
Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W. Septiani
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs.
Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pedregal, Diego J.; Trapero, Juan R.
2007-01-01
The changes experienced by electricity markets in recent years have created the necessity for more accurate forecast tools of electricity prices, both for producers and consumers. Many methodologies have been applied to this aim, but in the view of the authors, state space models are not yet fully exploited. The present paper proposes a univariate dynamic harmonic regression model set up in a state space framework for forecasting prices in these markets. The advantages of the approach are threefold. Firstly, a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure is proposed based on the frequency domain. Secondly, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions that compare favourably with respect to other techniques. Finally, since the method is based on unobserved components models, explicit information about trend, seasonal and irregular behaviours of the series can be extracted. This information is of great value to the electricity companies' managers in order to improve their strategies, i.e. it provides management innovations. The good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the model to changes in the data are illustrated with actual prices taken from the PJM interconnection in the US and for the Spanish market for the year 2002. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H Du Toit
2004-04-01
Full Text Available This paper provides a concise overview of the development of an integrated property and asset market model (IPAMM for South African property markets, utilising the Pretoria office market as case study. The IPAMM simulates the interrelationships between property and asset markets in a diagrammatic quadrant model configuration. The Fischer-DiPasquale-Wheaton (FDW real estate model, arguably the most advanced diagrammatic quadrant real estate model available at present, served as basis for the development of IPAMM. IPAMM is essentially a regression model based on a system of stochastic equations that captures the interrelationships between property and asset markets. The model advances beyond mere conceptualisation of these relationships to a quantified interpretation and application of the theoretical premises that represent the micro-foundations of economic behaviour in property and asset markets.
Pricing perpetual American options under multiscale stochastic elasticity of variance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoon, Ji-Hun
2015-01-01
Highlights: • We study the effects of the stochastic elasticity of variance on perpetual American option. • Our SEV model consists of a fast mean-reverting factor and a slow mean-revering factor. • A slow scale factor has a very significant impact on the option price. • We analyze option price structures through the market prices of elasticity risk. - Abstract: This paper studies pricing the perpetual American options under a constant elasticity of variance type of underlying asset price model where the constant elasticity is replaced by a fast mean-reverting Ornstein–Ulenbeck process and a slowly varying diffusion process. By using a multiscale asymptotic analysis, we find the impact of the stochastic elasticity of variance on the option prices and the optimal exercise prices with respect to model parameters. Our results enhance the existing option price structures in view of flexibility and applicability through the market prices of elasticity risk
Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred
2005-12-15
Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price
Considering extraction constraints in long-term oil price modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer; Voss, Alfred
2005-01-01
Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. On the one hand it is problematic to project oil supply trends without taking both - prices as well as supply costs - explicitly into account. On the other hand are supply cost estimates however itself heavily dependent on the underlying extraction rates and are actually only valid within a certain business-as-usual extraction rate scenario (which itself is the task to determine). In fact, even after having applied enhanced recovery technologies, the rate at which an oil field can be exploited is quite restricted. Above a certain level an additional extraction rate increase can only be costly achieved at risks of losses in the overall recoverable amounts of the oil reservoir and causes much higher marginal cost. This inflexibility in extraction can be overcome in principle by the access to new oil fields. This indicates why the discovery trend may roughly form the long-term oil production curve, at least for price-taking suppliers. The long term oil discovery trend itself can be described as a logistic process with the two opposed effects of learning and depletion. This leads to the well-known Hubbert curve. Several attempts have been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With this work we follow a somewhat inverse approach and integrate Hubbert curves in our Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction model LOPEX. In LOPEX we assume that non-OPEC oil production - as long as the oil can be profitably discovered and extracted - is restricted to follow self-regulative discovery trends described by Hubbert curves. Non-OPEC production in LOPEX therefore consists of those Hubbert cycles that are profitable, depending on supply cost and price. Endogenous and exogenous technical progress is extra integrated in different ways. LOPEX determines extraction and price
Modeling and forecasting electricity price jumps in the Nord Pool power market
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knapik, Oskar
extreme prices and forecasting of the price jumps is crucial for risk management and market design. In this paper, we consider the problem of the impact of fundamental price drivers on forecasting of price jumps in NordPool intraday market. We develop categorical time series models which take into account......For risk management traders in the electricity market are mainly interested in the risk of negative (drops) or of positive (spikes) price jumps, i.e. the sellers face the risk of negative price jumps while the buyers face the risk of positive price jumps. Understanding the mechanism that drive...
Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars
This paper uses asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models to fit return data and to price options. The models can be estimated straightforwardly by maximum likelihood, have high statistical fit when used on S&P 500 index return data, and allow for substantial negative skewness and time...... varying higher order moments of the risk neutral distribution. When forecasting out-of-sample a large set of index options between 1996 and 2009, substantial improvements are found compared to several benchmark models in terms of dollar losses and the ability to explain the smirk in implied volatilities...
Financial Integration and Asset Returns
P Martin; H Rey
2000-01-01
The paper investigates the impact of financial integration on asset return, risk diversification and breadth of financial markets. We analyse a three-country macroeconomic model in which (i) the number of financial assets is endogenous; (ii) assets are imperfect substitutes; (iii) cross-border asset trade entails some transaction costs; (iv) the investment technology is indivisible. In such an environment, lower transaction costs between two financial markets translate to higher demand for as...
Adaptation of warrant price with Black Scholes model and historical volatility
Aziz, Khairu Azlan Abd; Idris, Mohd Fazril Izhar Mohd; Saian, Rizauddin; Daud, Wan Suhana Wan
2015-05-01
This project discusses about pricing warrant in Malaysia. The Black Scholes model with non-dividend approach and linear interpolation technique was applied in pricing the call warrant. Three call warrants that are listed in Bursa Malaysia were selected randomly from UiTM's datastream. The finding claims that the volatility for each call warrants are different to each other. We have used the historical volatility which will describes the price movement by which an underlying share is expected to fluctuate within a period. The Black Scholes model price that was obtained by the model will be compared with the actual market price. Mispricing the call warrants will contribute to under or over valuation price. Other variables like interest rate, time to maturity date, exercise price and underlying stock price are involves in pricing call warrants as well as measuring the moneyness of call warrants.
Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I; Chen, Chi-Chung
2010-01-01
The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)
Sylvain M. Prado
2009-01-01
In the leasing industry, the risk of loss on sales at the end of the contract term, as well as pricing are critically impacted by the forecasted resale price of the asset (residual value). We apply the Hedonic methodology to European auto lease portfolios, in order to estimate the resale price distribution. The Hedonic approach estimates the price of a good through the valuation of its attributes. Following a discussion on Hedonic prices, we propose an operational model for the automobile res...
Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas
2005-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative
Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.
2005-01-01
This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)
Governance of private label as a strategic asset: developing a brand valuation model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renato Giovannini
2017-12-01
Full Text Available This paper aims at identifying which factors should be considered in the building of an economic evaluation model for the private label brand. In fact, some specific characteristics of private label, with respect to industrial brand, make unusable the consolidated models available. The results of the paper are the definition of some specific factors of private label, the assumptions about how these features impact on the traditional economic evaluation models and how these could be included in a model. Because of the complexity of the topic, the hypothesis is to build a model of synthesis, made of two parts: one part for a Financial-Based evaluation of Brand Equity, with the addition of some specific factors and indicators to the traditional formulas, while the other part is for a Consumer-based evaluation of Brand Equity, thanks to an index that summarizes the strength of private label brands from the consumer perspective. The private label economic evaluation has some relevant managerial implications on the retail system, on the vertical supply chain relationships and on the understanding of the strategic nature of this asset.
Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aimin Heng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.
Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price
Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani
2017-05-01
This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.
Diller, Hermann
2013-01-01
Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bashir Ahmad
2013-02-01
Full Text Available In this article, we discuss the existence of solutions for a boundary-value problem of integro-differential equations of fractional order with nonlocal fractional boundary conditions by means of some standard tools of fixed point theory. Our problem describes a more general form of fractional stochastic dynamic model for financial asset. An illustrative example is also presented.
Cost-Sensitive Estimation of ARMA Models for Financial Asset Return Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Minyoung Kim
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The autoregressive moving average (ARMA model is a simple but powerful model in financial engineering to represent time-series with long-range statistical dependency. However, the traditional maximum likelihood (ML estimator aims to minimize a loss function that is inherently symmetric due to Gaussianity. The consequence is that when the data of interest are asset returns, and the main goal is to maximize profit by accurate forecasting, the ML objective may be less appropriate potentially leading to a suboptimal solution. Rather, it is more reasonable to adopt an asymmetric loss where the model's prediction, as long as it is in the same direction as the true return, is penalized less than the prediction in the opposite direction. We propose a quite sensible asymmetric cost-sensitive loss function and incorporate it into the ARMA model estimation. On the online portfolio selection problem with real stock return data, we demonstrate that the investment strategy based on predictions by the proposed estimator can be significantly more profitable than the traditional ML estimator.
Managing Assets in The Infrastructure Sector
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T.P. van Houten
2010-09-01
Full Text Available In view of the importance of managing assets and the lack of research in managing assets in the infrastructure sector, we develop an asset management model in this study. This model is developed in line with the unique characteristics of the infrastructure assets and asset management principles and criteria. In the proposed model, we consider activities at three levels, namely the strategical, tactical and operational levels. The interviews with experts in asset management and officials in several Dutch organizations have proven the potential of our asset management model.
Lya Aklimawati; Teguh Wahyudi
2013-01-01
High volatility cocoa price movement is consequenced by imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in the international commerce. Dynamic prices moving erratically influence the benefit of market players, particularly producers. The aim of this research is (1) to estimate the empirical cocoa prices model for responding market dynamics and (2) ...
Daniell, James; Pomonis, Antonios; Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Gaspari, Maria; Lu, Xijie; Aubrecht, Christoph; Ungar, Joachim
2017-04-01
In order to quantify disaster risk, there is a demand and need for determining consistent and reliable economic value of built assets at national or sub national level exposed to natural hazards. The value of the built stock in the context of a city or a country is critical for risk modelling applications as it allows for the upper bound in potential losses to be established. Under the World Bank probabilistic disaster risk assessment - Country Disaster Risk Profiles (CDRP) Program and rapid post-disaster loss analyses in CATDAT, key methodologies have been developed that quantify the asset exposure of a country. In this study, we assess the complementary methods determining value of building stock through capital investment data vs aggregated ground up values based on built area and unit cost of construction analyses. Different approaches to modelling exposure around the world, have resulted in estimated values of built assets of some countries differing by order(s) of magnitude. Using the aforementioned methodology of comparing investment data based capital stock and bottom-up unit cost of construction values per square meter of assets; a suitable range of capital stock estimates for built assets have been created. A blind test format was undertaken to compare the two types of approaches from top-down (investment) and bottom-up (construction cost per unit), In many cases, census data, demographic, engineering and construction cost data are key for bottom-up calculations from previous years. Similarly for the top-down investment approach, distributed GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) data is also required. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been undertaken through the World Bank Caribbean and Central America disaster risk assessment program adopting this methodology initially developed by Gunasekera et al. (2015). The range of values of the building stock is tested for around 15 countries. In addition, three types of costs - Reconstruction cost
Determinants Of Equity Prices In The Stock Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Usman Javaid
2010-12-01
Full Text Available This study examines the effect of market variables on the movement stock prices in Pakistan. Asset pricing is considered as efficient if the asset prices reflect all available market information. This study examined the extent to which some "information factors" or market indices affect the stock price. A simple regression model has been used to develop a relation between the variables (stock prices, earnings per share, gross domestic product, dividend, inflation and KIBOR after testing for multi-collinearity among the independent variables. All the variables have shown positive correlation with stock prices with some exceptions of GDP and inflation. This study has enriched the existing literature while it would help policy makers who are interested in deploying instruments of monetary policy and other economic indices for the growth of the capital market.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1990-11-01
The IAEA Assessment of Safety Significant Events Team (ASSET) Service provides advice and assistance to Member States to enhance the overall level of plant safety while dealing with the policy of prevention of incidents at nuclear power plants. The ASSET programme, initiated in 1986, is not restricted to any particular group of Member States, whether developing or industrialized, but is available to all countries with nuclear power plants in operation or approaching commercial operation. The IAEA Safety Series publications form common basis for the ASSET reviews, including the Nuclear Safety Standards (NUSS) and the Basic Safety Principles (Recommendations of Safety Series No. 75-INSAG-3). The ASSET Guidelines provide overall guidance for the experts to ensure the consistency and comprehensiveness of their review of incident investigations. Additional guidance and reference material is provided by the IAEA to complement the expertise of the ASSET members. ASSET reviews accept different approaches that contribute to ensuring an effective prevention of incidents at plants. Suggestions are offered to enhance plant safety performance. Commendable good practices are identified and generic lessons are communicated to other plants, where relevant, for long term improvement
Modelling the Price of Unleaded Petrol in Australia’s Capital Cities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abbas Valadkhani
2010-06-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the long-run and short-run determinants of unleaded petrol price in Australia’s capitalcities using monthly data to find out whether prices respond asymmetrically to external shocks. Based on thecointegration test results and the estimated asymmetric short-run dynamic models, it is found that: (1 in thelong-run petrol prices are mainly determined by Tapis crude oil and Singapore petrol prices; (2 there issome evidence of asymmetric price adjustments in the short-run since petrol price increases have been mostlypassed on to the consumer faster than price decreases in four capital cities. More specifically, this paperprovides convincing evidence in support of asymmetric price adjustments and the “rockets-and-feathershypothesis” in Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. One can thus argue that there are a significantdegree of market inefficiency and/or collusion, requiring a closer government price monitoring and scrutiny.
Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes
2004-01-01
This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells
Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach
Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani
2017-05-01
Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.
Strategies for OPEC's pricing decisions. [Using model of world energy market
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gately, D; Kyle, J F; Fischer, D
1977-11-01
A model of the world energy market that incorporates price expectations and lagged adjustments of demand and supply is used to examine implications of various price-paths that could be selected by OPEC. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the results to changes in functional specifications and certain parameter values, the authors discuss a variety of rule-of-thumb pricing strategies under which OPEC sets prices in response to available market signals. A strategy that is relatively cautious about further major price increases serves OPEC relatively well in comparison with other stategies, but there exists a real possibility of major, abrupt price increases within the next ten years.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Henry Jordaan
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Price risk associated with maize production became a reason for concern in South Africa only after the deregulation of the agricultural commodities markets in the mid-1990s, when farmers became responsible for marketing their own crops. Although farmers can use, inter alia, the cash forward contracting and/or the derivatives market to manage price risk, few farmers actually participate in forward pricing. A similar reluctance to use forward pricing methods is also found internationally. A number of different model specifications have been used in previous research to model forward pricing behaviour which is based on the assumption that the same variables influence both the adoption and the quantity decision. This study compares the results from a model specification which models forward pricing behaviour in a single-decision framework with the results from modelling the quantity decision conditional to the adoption decision in a two-step approach. The results suggest that substantially more information is obtained by modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions rather than a single decision. Such information may be valuable in educational material compiled to educate farmers in the effective use of forward pricing methods in price risk management. Modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions is thus a more effective means of modelling forward pricing behaviour than modelling it as a single decision.
Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther
2015-01-01
We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...
A multi-objective sustainable model for transportation asset management practices : final report.
2015-12-01
Transportation Asset Management (TAM) practices has gained popularity in the United States and worldwide with the aim to provide the required level of service for the transportation infrastructure network in the most cost-effective manner. However, T...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rizal Sebastian
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper particularly addresses the market implementation of Fibre Reinforced Polymer (FRP for bridges. It presents the concept of demand and supply chain innovation as being investigated within two ongoing European collaborative research projects (FP7 titled Trans-IND and PANTURA. FRP has emerged as a real alternative structural material based on various sustainability considerations, among others the reduced life-cycle cost due to less maintenance needs, longer lifetime, and easiness to repair, replace, or recycle the components. The Trans-IND research project aims to develop and demonstrate new industrialized processes to use FRP for civil infrastructure projects at a large scale. In order to be cost effective, a new value-chain strategy for the design, realization, and maintenance of FRP bridges is required to replace the fragmented supply chain and the one-off approach to a construction project. This paper focuses on the development of new business models based on asset management strategy, which covers the entire demand and supply chains. Research on new business models is supported by the insight into the market and regulatory frameworks in different EU countries. This is based on field surveys across the EU that have been carried out as a part of the Trans-IND and PANTURA collaborative research projects.
A markov decision process model for the optimal dispatch of military medical evacuation assets.
Keneally, Sean K; Robbins, Matthew J; Lunday, Brian J
2016-06-01
We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model to examine aerial military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) dispatch policies in a combat environment. The problem of deciding which aeromedical asset to dispatch to each service request is complicated by the threat conditions at the service locations and the priority class of each casualty event. We assume requests for MEDEVAC support arrive sequentially, with the location and the priority of each casualty known upon initiation of the request. The United States military uses a 9-line MEDEVAC request system to classify casualties as being one of three priority levels: urgent, priority, and routine. Multiple casualties can be present at a single casualty event, with the highest priority casualty determining the priority level for the casualty event. Moreover, an armed escort may be required depending on the threat level indicated by the 9-line MEDEVAC request. The proposed MDP model indicates how to optimally dispatch MEDEVAC helicopters to casualty events in order to maximize steady-state system utility. The utility gained from servicing a specific request depends on the number of casualties, the priority class for each of the casualties, and the locations of both the servicing ambulatory helicopter and casualty event. Instances of the dispatching problem are solved using a relative value iteration dynamic programming algorithm. Computational examples are used to investigate optimal dispatch policies under different threat situations and armed escort delays; the examples are based on combat scenarios in which United States Army MEDEVAC units support ground operations in Afghanistan.
Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Igusa, Takeru; Jones-Smith, Jessica
2016-11-01
The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.
2016-01-01
Background: The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. Objective: We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. Methods: With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. Results: The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Conclusions: Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. PMID:27655757
A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets
E-Khatib, Youssef
2012-09-01
One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.
Theoretical Model of Pricing Behavior on the Polish Wholesale Fuel Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bejger Sylwester
2016-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a theoretical model of strategic pricing behavior of the players in a Polish wholesale fuel market. This model is consistent with the characteristics of the industry, the wholesale market, and the players. The model is based on the standard methodology of repeated games with a built-in adjustment to a focal price, which resembles the Import Parity Pricing (IPP mechanism. From the equilibrium of the game, we conclude that the focal price policy implies a parallel pricing strategic behavior on the market.
Developing a new stochastic competitive model regarding inventory and price
Rashid, Reza; Bozorgi-Amiri, Ali; Seyedhoseini, S. M.
2015-09-01
Within the competition in today's business environment, the design of supply chains becomes more complex than before. This paper deals with the retailer's location problem when customers choose their vendors, and inventory costs have been considered for retailers. In a competitive location problem, price and location of facilities affect demands of customers; consequently, simultaneous optimization of the location and inventory system is needed. To prepare a realistic model, demand and lead time have been assumed as stochastic parameters, and queuing theory has been used to develop a comprehensive mathematical model. Due to complexity of the problem, a branch and bound algorithm has been developed, and its performance has been validated in several numerical examples, which indicated effectiveness of the algorithm. Also, a real case has been prepared to demonstrate performance of the model for real world.
Looking for Synergy with Momentum in Main Asset Classes
Lukas Macijauskas; Dimitrios I. Maditinos
2014-01-01
As during turbulent market conditions correlations between main asset-classes falter, classical asset management concepts seem unreliable. This problem stimulates search for non-discretionary asset allocation methods. The aim of the paper is to test weather the concept of Momentum phenomena could be used as a stand alone investment strategy using all main asset classes. The study is based on exploring historical prices of various asset classes; statistical data analysis method is used. Result...
An equivalent marginal cost-pricing model for the district heating market
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Junli; Ge, Bin; Xu, Hongsheng
2013-01-01
District heating pricing is a core element in reforming the heating market. Existing district heating pricing methods, such as the cost-plus pricing method and the conventional marginal-cost pricing method, cannot simultaneously provide both high efficiency and sufficient investment cost return. To solve this problem, the paper presents a new pricing model, namely Equivalent Marginal Cost Pricing (EMCP) model, which is based on the EVE pricing theory and the unique characteristics of heat products and district heating. The EMCP model uses exergy as the measurement of heating product value and places products from different district heating regions into the same competition platform. In the proposed model, the return on investment cost is closely related to the quoted cost, and within the limitations of the Heating Capacity Cost Reference and the maximum compensated shadow capacity cost, both lower and higher price speculations of heat producers are restricted. Simulation results show that the model can guide heat producers to bid according to their production costs and to provide reasonable returns on investment, which contributes to stimulate the role of price leverage and to promote the optimal allocation of heat resources. - Highlights: • Presents a new district heating pricing model. • Provides both high market efficiency and sufficient investment cost return. • Provides a competition mechanism for various products from different DH regions. • Both of lower and higher price speculations are restricted in the new model
A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank S.; Nielsen, Morten Oerregaard
2010-01-01
A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. (author)
The Performance of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models for Pricing and Hedging Caps and Swaptions
Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Klaassen, P.; Melenberg, B.
2000-01-01
In this paper we empirically compare different term structure models when it comes to the pricing and hedging of caps and swaptions.We analyze the influence of the number of factors on the pricing and hedging results, and investigate which type of data -interest rate data or derivative price data-
The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph
2016-01-01
The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.
Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan : The Impact of Joining the WTO
C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); B-W. Huang (Bing-Wen); M-G. Chen (Meng-Gu)
2010-01-01
textabstractPrices in the hog industry in Taiwan are determined according to an auction system. There are significant differences in hog prices before, during and after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). The paper models growth rates and volatility in daily hog prices in Taiwan from 23
A reference-dependent model of the price-quality heuristic
Gneezy, A.; Gneezy, U.; Lauga, D.O.
2014-01-01
People often use price as a proxy for quality, resulting in a positive correlation between prices and product liking, known as the "price- quality" (P-Q) heuristic. Using data from three experiments conducted at a winery, this article offers a more complex and complete reference-dependent model of
Zhang, Shuang
2012-01-01
Based on farmers' supply behavior theory and price expectations theory, this paper establishes grain farmers' supply response model of two major grain varieties (early indica rice and mixed wheat) in the major producing areas, to test whether the minimum grain purchase price policy can have price-oriented effect on grain production and supply in the major producing areas. Empirical analysis shows that the minimum purchase price published annually by the government has significant positive imp...
Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations
Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina
2015-03-01
Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.
Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xolani Ndlovu
2014-11-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.
The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luis, J.B.
2001-01-01
The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)
Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ani Shabri
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.
Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Achi, Godswill U., E-mail: achigods@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, Abia State Polytechnic Aba, P.M.B. 7166, Aba, Abia State (Nigeria)
2014-10-24
The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.
Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Achi, Godswill U.
2014-01-01
The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing 9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ x (u) of X t we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices
Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation
Achi, Godswill U.
2014-10-01
The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φx(u) of Xt we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.
A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Ortlieb, Sebastian; Fichtner, Wolf
2013-01-01
Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series. - Highlights: • Wind power feed-in can be directly simulated with stochastic processes. • Non-linear relationship between wind power feed-in and electricity prices. • Price reduction effect of wind power feed-in depends on the actual load. • Considering wind power feed-in effects improves the electricity price simulation. • Combined modeling of both parameters delivers a data basis for evaluation tools
清水, 千弘; Chihiro, Shimizu
2014-01-01
How exactly should one estimate property investment returns? Investors in property aim to maximize capital gains from price increases and income generated by the property. How are the returns on investment in property determined based on its characteristics, and what kind of market characteristics does it have? Focusing on the Tokyo commer-cial property market and residential property market, the purpose of this paper was to break down and measure the micro-structure of property investment re...
Financing Asset Sales and Business Cycles
Arnold, Marc; Hackbarth, Dirk; Puhan, Tatjana-Xenia
2013-01-01
This paper analyzes the decision of firms to sell assets to fund investments (financing asset sales). For a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms during the 1971-2010 period, we document new stylized facts about financing asset sales that cannot be explained by traditional motives for selling assets, such as financial distress or financing constraints. Using a structural model of financing, investment, and macroeconomic risk, we show that financing asset sales attenuate the debt overhang problem...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lya Aklimawati
2013-12-01
Full Text Available High volatility cocoa price movement is consequenced by imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in the international commerce. Dynamic prices moving erratically influence the benefit of market players, particularly producers. The aim of this research is (1 to estimate the empirical cocoa prices model for responding market dynamics and (2 analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables on cocoa prices. This research was carried out by analyzing annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM approach was used to estimate the econometric model of cocoa price.The estimation results indicated that cocoa price was significantly affected by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product, world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock were elastic (E >1, while other variables were inelastic (E <1. Variables that affecting cocoa pricesin short run equilibrium were exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product, world inflation, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock. The analysis results showed that world gross domestic product, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock were elastic (E >1 to cocoa prices in short-term. Whereas, the response of cocoa prices was inelastic to change of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price
What is a new drug worth? An innovative model for performance-based pricing.
Dranitsaris, G; Dorward, K; Owens, R C; Schipper, H
2015-05-01
This article focuses on a novel method to derive prices for new pharmaceuticals by making price a function of drug performance. We briefly review current models for determining price for a new product and discuss alternatives that have historically been favoured by various funding bodies. The progressive approach to drug pricing, proposed herein, may better address the views and concerns of multiple stakeholders in a developed healthcare system by acknowledging and incorporating input from disparate parties via comprehensive and successive negotiation stages. In proposing a valid construct for performance-based pricing, the following model seeks to achieve several crucial objectives: earlier and wider access to new treatments; improved transparency in drug pricing; multi-stakeholder involvement through phased pricing negotiations; recognition of innovative product performance and latent changes in value; an earlier and more predictable return for developers without sacrificing total return on investment (ROI); more involved and informed risk sharing by the end-user. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Implied liquidity : towards stochastic liquidity modeling and liquidity trading
Corcuera, J.M.; Guillaume, F.M.Y.; Madan, D.B.; Schoutens, W.
2010-01-01
In this paper we introduce the concept of implied (il)liquidity of vanilla options. Implied liquidity is based on the fundamental theory of conic finance, in which the one-price model is abandoned and replaced by a two-price model giving bid and ask prices for traded assets. The pricing is done by
Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zagaglia, Paolo
2010-01-01
I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)
Johnson, Japera; Bozeman, Barry
2012-11-01
The authors contend that increasing diversity in academic medicine, science, technology, engineering, and mathematics requires the adoption of a systematic approach to retain minority high school and college students as they navigate the scientific pipeline. Such an approach should focus on the interrelated and multilayered challenges that these students face. The authors fuse an alternative conceptualization of the scientific and technical human capital theoretical framework and the theory of social identity contingencies to offer a conceptual model for targeting the critical areas in which minority students may need additional support to continue toward careers in science. Their proposed asset bundles model is grounded in the central premise that making greater progress in recruiting and retaining minorities likely requires institutions to respond simultaneously to various social cues that signal devaluation of certain identities (e.g., gender, race, socioeconomic status). The authors define "asset bundles" as the specific sets of abilities and resources individuals develop that help them succeed in educational and professional tasks, including but not limited to science and research. The model consists of five asset bundles, each of which is supported in the research literature as a factor relevant to educational achievement and, the authors contend, may lead to improved and sustained diversity: educational endowments, science socialization, network development, family expectations, and material resources. Using this framework, they suggest possible ways of thinking about the task of achieving diversity as well as guideposts for next steps. Finally, they discuss the feasibility of implementing such an approach.
Johnson, Japera; Bozeman, Barry
2012-01-01
The authors contend that increasing diversity in the scientific pipeline (e.g., academic medicine, science, technology, engineering and mathematics) requires a systematic approach to retain minority high school and college students. Such an approach should focus on the interrelated and multilayered challenges that these students face. The authors fuse an alternative conceptualization of the scientific and technical human capital theoretical framework and the theory of social identity contingencies to offer a conceptual model for targeting the critical areas in which minority students may need additional support in order to continue toward a career in science. Their proposed asset bundles model is grounded in the central premise that making greater progress in recruiting and retaining minorities likely requires institutions to respond simultaneously to various social cues that signal devaluation of certain identities (e.g., gender, race, or socioeconomic status). The authors define “asset bundles” as the specific sets of abilities and resources individuals develop that help them succeed in educational and professional tasks, including but not limited to science and research. The model consists of five asset bundles, each of which is supported in the research literature as a factor relevant to educational achievement and, the authors contend, may lead to improved and sustained diversity: educational endowments, science socialization, network development, family expectations, and material resources. Using this framework, they suggest possible ways of thinking about the task of achieving diversity as well as guideposts for next steps. Finally, they discuss the feasibility of implementing such an approach. PMID:23018329
Pricing Model for Dual Sales Channel with Promotion Effect Consideration
Chuiri Zhou
2016-01-01
We focus on the pricing strategy of a dual sales channel member when his/her online retailer faces an upcoming overloaded express delivery service due to the sales peak of online shopping, especially referring to the occurring affairs in China. We characterize the pricing problem of the dual selling channel system as a two-period game. When the price discount is only provided by the online seller, we find that the prices of the traditional channel and the online channel in the two periods are...
RAMSI management model and evaluation criteria for Nordic offshore wind asset
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tiusanen, R.; Jaennes, J. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland); Liyanage, J. P. [Univ. of Stavanger, Center for Industrial Asset Management (Norway)
2012-07-01
is based on the product development process, concurrent design principles and the Stage-Gate model. The model concentrates mostly on technical decisions made in the early development phases. This publication also presents guidelines for comparing different offshore wind energy assets and their critical components from a system availability and safety viewpoint. The classification and evaluation criteria for R&M's factors are outlined and discussed, and a multi-factor risk-profiling (Mfr) method introduced. (orig.)
Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radu Lupu
2006-03-01
Full Text Available Option pricing by the use of Black Scholes Merton (BSM model is based on the assumption that asset prices have a lognormal distribution. In spite of the use of these models on a large scale, both by practioners and academics, the assumption of lognormality is rejected by the history of returns. The objective of this article is to present the methods that developed after the Black Scholes Merton environment and deals with the option pricing model adjustment to the empirical properties of asset returns. The main models that appeared after BSM allowed for special changes of the returns that materialized in jump-diffusion and stochastic volatility processes. The article presents the foundations of risk neutral options evaluation and the empirical evidence that fed the amendment of the lognormal assumption in the first part and shows the evaluation procedure under the assumption of stock prices following the jump-diffusion process and the stochastic volatility process.
EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marossy, Z.
2007-01-01
The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs
A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pircalabu, Anca; Benth, Fred Espen
2017-01-01
significant evidence of tail dependence in all pairs of interconnected areas we consider. As a first application of the proposed model, we consider the pricing of financial transmission rights, and highlight how the choice of marginal distributions and copula impacts prices. As a second application we......The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the joint behavior of prices in interconnected markets. In this paper we propose a regime-switching AR–GARCH copula...... to model pairs of day-ahead electricity prices in coupled European markets. While capturing key stylized facts empirically substantiated in the literature, this model easily allows us to 1) deviate from the assumption of normal margins and 2) include a more detailed description of the dependence between...