Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies
W.A. de Groot (Wilma)
2017-01-01
markdownabstractOne of the most important challenges in the field of asset pricing is to understand anomalies: empirical patterns in asset returns that cannot be explained by standard asset pricing models. Currently, there is no consensus in the academic literature on the underlying causes of
Asset prices and priceless assets
Penasse, J.N.G.
2014-01-01
The doctoral thesis studies several aspects of asset returns dynamics. The first three chapters focus on returns in the fine art market. The first chapter provides evidence for the existence of a slow-moving fad component in art prices that induces short-term return predictability. The article has
Nazliben, Kamil
2015-01-01
The dissertation consists of three chapters that represent separate papers in the area of asset pricing. The ﬁrst chapter studies investors optimal asset allocation problem in which mean reversion in stock prices is captured by explicitly modeling transitory and permanent shocks. The second chapter
Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets
Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh
1988-01-01
A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...
An asset pricing approach to liquidity effects in corporate bond markets
Bongaerts, Dion; de Jong, Frank; Driessen, Joost
We use an asset pricing approach to compare the effects of expected liquidity and liquidity risk on expected U.S. corporate bond returns. Liquidity measures are constructed for bond portfolios using a Bayesian approach to estimate Roll’s measure. The results show that expected bond liquidity and
Asset Pricing - A Brief Review
Li, Minqiang
2010-01-01
I first introduce the early-stage and modern classical asset pricing and portfolio theories. These include: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM), the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), and some other important modern concepts and techniques. Finally, I discuss the most recent development during the last decade and the outlook in the field of asset pricing.
Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles Revisited
Jan Werner
2012-01-01
Price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset's fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles when either one of ...
Pricing Volatility Referenced Assets
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Alan De Genaro Dario
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Volatility swaps are contingent claims on future realized volatility. Variance swaps are similar instruments on future realized variance, the square of future realized volatility. Unlike a plain vanilla option, whose volatility exposure is contaminated by its asset price dependence, volatility and variance swaps provide a pure exposure to volatility alone. This article discusses the risk-neutral valuation of volatility and variance swaps based on the framework outlined in the Heston (1993 stochastic volatility model. Additionally, the Heston (1993 model is calibrated for foreign currency options traded at BMF and its parameters are used to price swaps on volatility and variance of the BRL / USD exchange rate.
Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets
Longstaff, Francis A
2005-01-01
Many important classes of assets are illiquid in the sense that they cannot always be traded immediately. Thus, a portfolio position in these types of illiquid investments becomes at least temporarily irreversible. We study the asset-pricing implications of illiquidity in a two-asset exchange economy with heterogeneous agents. In this market, one asset is always liquid. The other asset can be traded initially, but then not again until after a â€œblackoutâ€ period. Illiquidity has a dramatic e...
Asset Pricing and Monetary Policy
Bingbing Dong
2014-01-01
This paper examines the role of money in understanding the behavior of asset prices and whether and how monetary policy should react to asset prices such as stock prices and equity premiums. To do so, I introduce money via the form of transaction cost into a production economy with limited stock market participation where agents with lower inter-temporal elasticity of substitution (IES), called non-stockholders, have no access to stock market. In addition to facilitating transactions of consu...
Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rzeznik, Aleksandra
This thesis consists of three essays investigating financial and real estate markets and identifying a relationship between them. A 2008 financial crises provides a perfect example of sizeable interactions between US housing market and equity prices, where a negative shock to house prices trigger...... a word-wide recession. Therefore, understanding forces driving investors behaviour and preferences, which in turn affect asset prices in both equity and housing market are of great interest....
Prediction of future asset prices
Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei
2014-12-01
This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dreyer, Johannes Kabderian; Schneider, Johannes; T. Smith, William
2013-01-01
This paper explores the implications of a novel class of preferences for the behavior of asset prices. Following a suggestion by Marshall (1920), we entertain the possibility that people derive utility not only from consumption, but also from the very act of saving. These ‘‘saving-based’’ prefere...
Regret Theory and Equilibrium Asset Prices
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Jiliang Sheng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Regret theory is a behavioral approach to decision making under uncertainty. In this paper we assume that there are two representative investors in a frictionless market, a representative active investor who selects his optimal portfolio based on regret theory and a representative passive investor who invests only in the benchmark portfolio. In a partial equilibrium setting, the objective of the representative active investor is modeled as minimization of the regret about final wealth relative to the benchmark portfolio. In equilibrium this optimal strategy gives rise to a behavioral asset priciting model. We show that the market beta and the benchmark beta that is related to the investor’s regret are the determinants of equilibrium asset prices. We also extend our model to a market with multibenchmark portfolios. Empirical tests using stock price data from Shanghai Stock Exchange show strong support to the asset pricing model based on regret theory.
The Q theory of investment, the capital asset pricing model, and asset valuation: a synthesis.
McDonald, John F
2004-05-01
The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications of the new method are provided.
Asset Pricing Implications of Firms' Financing Constraints
Gomes, Joao F; Yaron, Amir; Zhang, Lu
2002-01-01
We incorporate costly external finance in a production based asset pricing model and investigate whether financing frictions are quantitatively important for pricing a cross-section of expected returns. We show that the common assumptions about the nature of the financing frictions are captured by a simple ‘financing cost’ function, equal to the product of the financing premium and the amount of external finance. This approach provides a tractable framework to examine the role of financing fr...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Busato, Francesco; Addessi, William
The paper investigates the nexus between labor and financial markets, focusing on the interaction between labor union behavior in setting wages, firms' investment strategy and asset prices. The way unions set wage claims after observing firm's financial performance increases the volatility of firms......' returns and the riskiness of corporate ownership. To remunerate this higher volatility and stronger risk, firms' equities have to grant high return. This mechanism is able to offer an explanation of for the "equity puzzle", that is it can explain the difference between equity returns and the risk free...... rate. It is a welcome result that the simulated excess return is about the empirical estimate and this result is obtained with a logarithmic specification of the shareholders preferences....
Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gormsen, Niels Joachim
that the expected return to the distant-future cash flows increases by more in bad times than the expected return to near-future cash flows does. This new stylized fact is important for understanding why the expected return on the market portfolio as a whole varies over time. In addition, it has strong implications...... for which economic model that drives the return to stocks. Indeed, I find that none of the canonical asset pricing models can explain this new stylized fact while also explaining the previously documented facts about stock returns. The second chapter, called Conditional Risk, studies how the expected return...... on individual stocks is influenced by the fact that their riskiness varies over time. We introduce a new ”conditional-risk factor”, which is a simple method for determining how much of the expected return to individual stocks that can be explained by time variation in their market risk, i.e. market betas. Using...
Asset pricing restrictions on predictability : Frictions matter
de Roon, F.A.; Szymanowska, M.
2012-01-01
U.S. stock portfolios sorted on size; momentum; transaction costs; market-to-book, investment-to-assets, and return-on-assets (ROA) ratios; and industry classification show considerable levels and variation of return predictability, inconsistent with asset pricing models. This means that a
Fractional-moment Capital Asset Pricing model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Hui; Wu Min; Wang Xiaotian
2009-01-01
In this paper, we introduce the definition of the 'α-covariance' and present the fractional-moment versions of Capital Asset Pricing Model,which can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be stable Levy (or Student-t) distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. Furthermore, if asset returns are truly governed by the infinite-variance stable Levy distributions, life is fundamentally riskier than in a purely Gaussian world. Sudden price movements like the worldwide security market crash in 2008 turn into real-world possibilities.
Essays on International Finance and Asset Pricing
Eiling, E.
2007-01-01
The second part of this dissertation takes a more general asset pricing perspective. In particular, it investigates the impact of human capital on asset pricing. Investors' portfolio decisions may be affected by their human capital. For instance, an investor who works in the IT sector may want to
Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing
Philippe BACCHETTA; Eric VAN WINCOOP
2004-01-01
We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. Higher order expectations add an additional term to a standard asset pricing equation. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price. In the context of a dynamic noisy r...
Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices
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Andras Fulop
2017-10-01
Full Text Available We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.
Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market
Veiga Helena; Vorsatz Marc
2006-01-01
We analyze in the laboratory whether an uninformed trader is able to manipulate the price of a financial asset. To do so, we compare the results of two different experimental treatments. In the Benchmark Treatment, twelve subjects trade a common value asset that takes either a high or a low value. Information is distributed asymmetrically, only three outof twelve subjects know the actual value of the asset. The Manipulation Treatment is identical to the Benchmark Treatment apart from the fact...
"Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium
Aiyagari, S.R.; Gertler, M.
1998-01-01
We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever themselves, further, either directly by borrowing short term or indirectly by engaging in futures and options trading, so that the scenario is relevant to contemporary financial markets. When some shock...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fakhri Husein
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Shariah Compliant Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM is a modification of the model Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. This research is quantitative descriptive study of theories of optimal portfolio analysis applied to trading stocks, especially in stocks Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling technique used was purposive sampling and obtained 26 shares. The analysis tool used is MatLab R2010a. The results of this study are not prove theMarkowitz portfolio theory. This is explained by the amount of Beta market (β_m a value beta below 1 indicates that the fluctuation of stocks returns do not follow the movement of market fluctuations. Investors are likely to want a high profit, the investors are advised to choose a second portfolio groups, with rate of 0.176722% and investors are likely to enjoy a substantial risk in the investment portfolio are advised to choose the first group with a great risk of 0.8501%.
Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments
Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.; van de Velden, H.
2008-01-01
We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most
Improving the asset pricing ability of the Consumption-Capital Asset Pricing Model?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng
This paper compares the asset pricing ability of the traditional consumption-based capital asset pricing model to models from two strands of literature attempting to improve on the poor empirical results of the C-CAPM. One strand is based on the intertemporal asset pricing model of Campbell (1993...... able to price assets conditionally as suggested by Cochrane (1996) and Lettau and Ludvigson (2001b). The unconditional C-CAPM is rewritten as a scaled factor model using the approximate log consumptionwealth ratio cay, developed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a), as scaling variable. The models...... and composite. Thus, there is no unambiguous solution to the pricing ability problems of the C-CAPM. Models from both the alternative literature strands are found to outperform the traditional C-CAPM on average pricing errors. However, when weighting pricing errors by the full variance-covariance matrix...
The pricing of illiquidity and illiquid assets : Essays on empirical asset pricing
Tuijp, Patrick
2016-01-01
This dissertation studies the pricing of liquidity and illiquid assets. For this thesis, liquidity will generally refer to the ease with which an asset can be traded. The first chapter investigates the role of the investment horizon in the impact of illiquidity on stock prices. We obtain a clientele
Entropy-based financial asset pricing.
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Mihály Ormos
Full Text Available We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.
Entropy-based financial asset pricing.
Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid
2014-01-01
We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.
Downside Risk And Empirical Asset Pricing
P. van Vliet (Pim)
2004-01-01
textabstractCurrently, the Nobel prize winning Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) celebrates its 40th birthday. Although widely applied in financial management, this model does not fully capture the empirical riskreturn relation of stocks; witness the beta, size, value and momentum effects. These
Essays on banking and asset pricing
Roscovan, V.
2008-01-01
This dissertation contains three studies on banking and asset pricing. It analyzes questions related to informational content of bank loan announcements and trading activity. The first two chapters examine theoretically and empirically how stock and bond holders react to bank loan announcements as a
Ambiguity and Volatility : Asset Pricing Implications
Pataracchia, B.
2011-01-01
Using a simple dynamic consumption-based asset pricing model, this paper explores the implications of a representative investor with smooth ambiguity averse preferences [Klibano¤, Marinacci and Mukerji, Econometrica (2005)] and provides a comparative analysis of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Bent Jesper; van der Wel, Michel
of the risk premium is associated with the slope factor, and individual risk prices depend on own past values, factor realizations, and past values of other risk prices, and are significantly related to the output gap, consumption, and the equity risk price. The absence of arbitrage opportunities is strongly...... is tested, but in addition to the standard bilinear term in factor loadings and market prices of risk, the relevant mean restriction in the term structure case involves an additional nonlinear (quadratic) term in factor loadings. We estimate our general model using likelihood-based dynamic factor model...... techniques for a variety of volatility factors, and implement the relevant likelihood ratio tests. Our factor model estimates are similar across a general state space implementation and an alternative robust two-step principal components approach. The evidence favors time-varying market prices of risk. Most...
Taxes, Regulations, and Asset Prices
Ellen R. McGrattan; Edward C. Prescott
2001-01-01
U.S. stock prices have increased much faster than gross domestic product (GDP) in the postwar period. Between 1962 and 2000, corporate equity value relative to GDP nearly doubled. In this paper, we determine what standard growth theory says the equity value should be in 1962 and 2000, the two years for which our steady-state assumption is a reasonable one. We find that the actual valuations were close to the theoretical predictions in both years. The reason for the large run-up in equity valu...
Efficient Pricing of Derivatives on Assets with Discrete Dividends
Vellekoop, M.H.; Nieuwenhuis, J.W.
2006-01-01
It is argued that due to inconsistencies in existing methods to approximate the prices of equity options on assets which pay out fixed cash dividends at future dates, a new approach to this problem may be useful. Logically consistent methods which are guaranteed to exclude arbitrage exist, but they
Assessing Asset Pricing Models Using Revealed Preference
Jonathan B. Berk; Jules H. van Binsbergen
2014-01-01
We propose a new method of testing asset pricing models that relies on using quantities rather than prices or returns. We use the capital flows into and out of mutual funds to infer which risk model investors use. We derive a simple test statistic that allows us to infer, from a set of candidate models, the model that is closest to the model that investors use in making their capital allocation decisions. Using this methodology, we find that of the models most commonly used in the literature,...
Does Central Bank Tone Move Asset Prices?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmeling, Maik; Wagner, Christian
the next press conference. Moreover, we find that positive tone changes are associated with increasing government bond yields, lower implied equity volatility, lower variance risk premia, and lower corporate credit spreads. Since we also show that tone changes are unrelated to current and future economic...... fundamentals, these results support the conjecture that central bank tone matters for asset prices through a risk-based channel. Our main findings also apply to U.S. markets, where stock prices and Treasury yields increase when the Fed chair’s tone in the Congressional Testimony becomes more positive....
Intangible Capital, Corporate Valuation and Asset Pricing
Danthine, Jean-Pierre; Jin, Xiangrong
2006-01-01
Recent studies have found unmeasured intangible capital to be large and important. In this paper we observe that by nature intangible capital is also very different from physical capital. We find it plausible to argue that the accumulation process for intangible capital differs significantly from the process by which physical capital accumulates. We study the implications of this hypothesis for rational firm valuation and asset pricing using a two-sector general equilibrium model. Our main fi...
Initial cash/asset ratio and asset prices: an experimental study.
Caginalp, G; Porter, D; Smith, V
1998-01-20
A series of experiments, in which nine participants trade an asset over 15 periods, test the hypothesis that an initial imbalance of asset/cash will influence the trading price over an extended time. Participants know at the outset that the asset or "stock" pays a single dividend with fixed expectation value at the end of the 15th period. In experiments with a greater total value of cash at the start, the mean prices during the trading periods are higher, compared with those with greater amount of asset, with a high degree of statistical significance. The difference is most significant at the outset and gradually tapers near the end of the experiment. The results are very surprising from a rational expectations and classical game theory perspective, because the possession of a large amount of cash does not lead to a simple motivation for a trader to bid excessively on a financial instrument. The gradual erosion of the difference toward the end of trading, however, suggests that fundamental value is approached belatedly, offering some consolation to the rational expectations theory. It also suggests that there is a time scale on which an evolution toward fundamental value occurs. The experimental results are qualitatively compatible with the price dynamics predicted by a system of differential equations based on asset flow. The results have broad implications for the marketing of securities, particularly initial and secondary public offerings, government bonds, etc., where excess supply has been conjectured to suppress prices.
Some Divergence Properties of Asset Price Models
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Wolfgang Stummer
2001-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract: We consider asset price processes Xt which are weak solutions of one-dimensional stochastic differential equations of the form (equation (2 Such price models can be interpreted as non-lognormally-distributed generalizations of the geometric Brownian motion. We study properties of the IÃŽÂ±-divergence between the law of the solution Xt and the corresponding drift-less measure (the special case ÃŽÂ±=1 is the relative entropy. This will be applied to some context in statistical information theory as well as to arbitrage theory and contingent claim valuation. For instance, the seminal option pricing theorems of Black-Scholes and Merton appear as a special case.
Fractal asset returns, arbitrage and option pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Potgieter, Petrus H.
2009-01-01
In the discrete-time fractional random walk model a market with one risky asset affords an arbitrage opportunity as described by Cutland et al. [Cutland NJ, Kopp PE, Willinger W. Stock price returns and the Joseph effect: a fractional version of the Black-Scholes model. In: Russo Francesco, Bolthausen Erwin, Dozzi Marco, editors. Seminar on 6 stochastic analysis, random fields and applications, pp. 327-351. Seminar on stochastic analysis, random fields and applications. Ascona: Centro Stefano Franscini; 1993, Progress in probability 36. Birkhauser Verlag; 1995.] and Sottinen [Sottinen Tommi. Fractional Brownian motion, random walks and binary market models. Finance Stoch 2001;5(3):343-355]. We briefly discuss these results and compute a numerical example in a fractional binomial model as illustration and mention an option pricing model for assets the returns of which are driven by a fractional Brownian motion [Yaozhong Hu, Bernt Oksendal. Fractional white noise calculus and applications to finance. Infin Dimens Anal Quant Probability Rel Top 2003;6:1-32, ISSN 0219-0257; Fajardo J, Cajueiro DO. Volatility estimation and option pricing with fractional Brownian motion, October 2003. Available from: (http://ideas.repec.org/p/ibm/finlab/flwp53.html)].
Incomplete Financial Markets and Jumps in Asset Prices
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Crès, Hervé; Markeprand, Tobias Ejnar; Tvede, Mich
A dynamic pure-exchange general equilibrium model with uncertainty is studied. Fundamentals are supposed to depend continuously on states of nature. It is shown that: 1. if financial markets are complete, then asset prices vary continuously with states of nature, and; 2. if financial markets...... are incomplete, jumps in asset prices may be unavoidable. Consequently incomplete financial markets may increase volatility in asset prices significantly....
Pricing of path dependent derivatives with discretely monitored underlying assets
Choi, Hyomin
This dissertation presents two different approaches to path dependent option pricing with discrete sampling. Provided the underlying asset of a path dependent derivative contract follows an affine process, we use the forward characteristic method to evaluate its fair price. Our study shows that the valuation method is numerically accessible as long as the contract payoff is a linear combination of log return of its underlying asset price. We compute various examples of such contracts and give contract-tailored formulas that we use in these examples. In the second part, we consider variance options under stochastic volatility model. We analyze the difference between variance option prices with discrete and continuous sampling as a function of N, the number of observations made in the former. We find the series expansion of the difference with respect to 1/N and find its leading term. By adding this leading term to the value of continuously sampled variance option, we obtain a simple and well-understood approximation of discretely sample variance option price.
Lectures on financial mathematics discrete asset pricing
Anderson, Greg
2010-01-01
This is a short book on the fundamental concepts of the no-arbitrage theory of pricing financial derivatives. Its scope is limited to the general discrete setting of models for which the set of possible states is finite and so is the set of possible trading times--this includes the popular binomial tree model. This setting has the advantage of being fairly general while not requiring a sophisticated understanding of analysis at the graduate level. Topics include understanding the several variants of "arbitrage", the fundamental theorems of asset pricing in terms of martingale measures, and applications to forwards and futures. The authors' motivation is to present the material in a way that clarifies as much as possible why the often confusing basic facts are true. Therefore the ideas are organized from a mathematical point of view with the emphasis on understanding exactly what is under the hood and how it works. Every effort is made to include complete explanations and proofs, and the reader is encouraged t...
Creator of the capital asset pricing model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pantelić Svetlana
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Harry M. Markowite, Merton H. Miller and William F. Sharpe were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 1990, for their pioneering work in the theory of financial economics. Harry Markowite gave the most significant contribution in portfolio selection, William Sharpe in establishing the equilibrium theory of capital asset pricing (CAPM, and Merton Miller in corporate finance. Their work revolutionized finance through the introduction and implementation of quantitative methods in financial analysis. Sharpe was born in 1934 in Boston, Massachusetts. He received the Bachelor of Arts degree in 1955, the Master of Arts degree in 1956, and PhD degree in Economics in 1961 at the UCLA. In his doctoral dissertation he explored a series of aspects of portfolio analysis, based on a model proposed by Markowite. He spent his working career as a lecturer and professor, taking active part in numerous research projects. He authored many scientific papers and books, having won several awards and being a member of many institutions. He established his own financial consulting firm in 1989.
Learning about rare disasters: implications for consumption and asset prices
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, Max; Kejak, Michal; Pakoš, Michal
2015-01-01
Roč. 19, č. 3 (2015), s. 1053-1104 ISSN 1572-3097 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : rare diasasters * asset prices * consumption Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.080, year: 2015
Asset Prices and Trading Volume under Fixed Transactions Costs.
Lo, Andrew W.; Mamaysky, Harry; Wang, Jiang
2004-01-01
We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume when agents face fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large "no-trade" regions for each agent's optimal trading policy. The inability to trade more frequently reduces the agents' asset demand and in equilibrium gives rise to a…
The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.
Hull, John C; White, Alan D
1987-01-01
One option-pricing problem which has hitherto been unsolved is the pricing of European call on an asset which has a stochastic volatility. This paper examines this problem. The option price is determined in series form for the case in which the stochastic volatility is independent of the stock price. Numerical solutions are also produced for the case in which the volatility is correlated with the stock price. It is found that the Black-Scholes price frequently overprices options and that the ...
The asset pricing model of musharakah factors
Simon, Shahril; Omar, Mohd; Lazam, Norazliani Md
2015-02-01
The existing three-factor model developed by Fama and French for conventional investment was formulated based on risk-free rates element in which contradict with Shariah principles. We note that the underlying principles that govern Shariah investment were mutual risk and profit sharing between parties, the assurance of fairness for all and that transactions were based on an underlying asset. In addition, the three-factor model did not exclude stock that was not permissible by Shariah such as financial services based on riba (interest), gambling operator, manufacture or sale of non-halal products or related products and other activities deemed non-permissible according to Shariah. Our approach to construct the factor model for Shariah investment was based on the basic tenets of musharakah in tabulating the factors. We start by noting that Islamic stocks with similar characteristics should have similar returns and risks. This similarity between Islamic stocks was defined by the similarity of musharakah attributes such as business, management, profitability and capital. These attributes define factor exposures (or betas) to factors. The main takeaways were that musharakah attributes we chose had explain stock returns well in cross section and were significant in different market environments. The management factor seemed to be responsible for the general dynamics of the explanatory power.
Pareto Improving Price Regulation when the Asset Market is Incomplete
Herings, P.J.J.; Polemarchakis, H.M.
1999-01-01
When the asset market is incomplete, competitive equilibria are constrained suboptimal, which provides a scope for pareto improving interventions. Price regulation can be such a pareto improving policy, even when the welfare effects of rationing are taken into account. An appealing aspect of price
Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices
Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah
2013-09-01
The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.
The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method
Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji
2017-12-01
Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.
Modelling of capital asset pricing by considering the lagged effects
Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Bon, A. Talib bin; Supian, S.
2017-01-01
In this paper the problem of modelling the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) with the effect of the lagged is discussed. It is assumed that asset returns are analysed influenced by the market return and the return of risk-free assets. To analyse the relationship between asset returns, the market return, and the return of risk-free assets, it is conducted by using a regression equation of CAPM, and regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM. Associated with the regression equation lagged CAPM distributed, this paper also developed a regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM. Results of development show that the regression equation of Koyck transformation CAPM has advantages, namely simple as it only requires three parameters, compared with regression equation of lagged distributed CAPM.
Self-consistent asset pricing models
Malevergne, Y.; Sornette, D.
2007-08-01
We discuss the foundations of factor or regression models in the light of the self-consistency condition that the market portfolio (and more generally the risk factors) is (are) constituted of the assets whose returns it is (they are) supposed to explain. As already reported in several articles, self-consistency implies correlations between the return disturbances. As a consequence, the alphas and betas of the factor model are unobservable. Self-consistency leads to renormalized betas with zero effective alphas, which are observable with standard OLS regressions. When the conditions derived from internal consistency are not met, the model is necessarily incomplete, which means that some sources of risk cannot be replicated (or hedged) by a portfolio of stocks traded on the market, even for infinite economies. Analytical derivations and numerical simulations show that, for arbitrary choices of the proxy which are different from the true market portfolio, a modified linear regression holds with a non-zero value αi at the origin between an asset i's return and the proxy's return. Self-consistency also introduces “orthogonality” and “normality” conditions linking the betas, alphas (as well as the residuals) and the weights of the proxy portfolio. Two diagnostics based on these orthogonality and normality conditions are implemented on a basket of 323 assets which have been components of the S&P500 in the period from January 1990 to February 2005. These two diagnostics show interesting departures from dynamical self-consistency starting about 2 years before the end of the Internet bubble. Assuming that the CAPM holds with the self-consistency condition, the OLS method automatically obeys the resulting orthogonality and normality conditions and therefore provides a simple way to self-consistently assess the parameters of the model by using proxy portfolios made only of the assets which are used in the CAPM regressions. Finally, the factor decomposition with the
Learning about rare disasters: implications for consumption and asset prices
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal; Pakoš, Michal
2015-01-01
Roč. 19, č. 3 (2015), s. 1053-1104 ISSN 1572-3097 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : rare diasasters * asset prices * consumption Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.080, year: 2015
International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations
Chaieb, I.; Errunza, V.
2007-01-01
We analyze the impact of both purchasing power parity (PPP) deviations and market segmentation on asset pricing and investor's portfolio holdings. The freely traded securities command a world market risk premium and an inflation risk premium. The securities that can be held by only a subset of
Habit-based Asset Pricing with Limited Participation Consumption
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bach, Christian; Møller, Stig Vinther
We calibrate and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation using limited participation consumption data. Based on survey data of a representative sample of American households, we distinguish between assetholder and non-assetholder consumption, as well as the standard...
Habit-based asset pricing with limited participation consumption
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Stig Vinther; Bach, Christian
2011-01-01
We calibrate and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation using limited participation consumption data. Based on survey data of a representative sample of American households, we distinguish between assetholder and non-assetholder consumption, as well as the standard...
Current approaches to assessing intangible assets
Урусова, Зінаїда Петрівна
2013-01-01
The article analyzes methods of assessing intangible assets in Ukraine as well as in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards. Contemporary approaches to assessing intangible assets have been researched.
Effects of Idiosyncratic Volatility in Asset Pricing
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André Luís Leite
2016-04-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to evaluate the effects of the aggregate market volatility components - average volatility and average correlation - on the pricing of portfolios sorted by idiosyncratic volatility, using Brazilian data. The study investigates whether portfolios with high and low idiosyncratic volatility - in relation to the Fama and French model (1996 - have different exposures to innovations in average market volatility, and consequently, different expectations for return. The results are in line with those found for US data, although they portray the Brazilian reality. Decomposition of volatility allows the average volatility component, without the disturbance generated by the average correlation component, to better price the effects of a worsening or an improvement in the investment environment. This result is also identical to that found for US data. Average variance should thus command a risk premium. For US data, this premium is negative. According to Chen and Petkova (2012, the main reason for this negative sign is the high level of investment in research and development recorded by companies with high idiosyncratic volatility. As in Brazil this type of investment is significantly lower than in the US, it was expected that a result with the opposite sign would be found, which is in fact what occurred.
PEMILIHAN SAHAM YANG OPTIMAL MENGGUNAKAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM
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Dioda Ardi Wibisono
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Optimal portfolio is the basis for investors to invest in stock. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM is a method to determine the value of the risk and return of a company stock. This research uses a secondary data from the closing price of the monthly stock price (monthly closing price, Stock Price Index (SPI, and the monthly SBI rate. The samples of this research are 41 stocks in LQ45 February-July 2015 on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (ISE. The study period is during 5 year from October 2010 - October 2015. The result of analysis shows that the optimal portfolio consists of 18 companies. The average return of the optimal portfolio is higher than the average risk-free return (SBI rate and the average market return. This proves that investing in stocks is more profitable than a risk-free investment. � Keywords: Stock, CAPM, return, risk�
The pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays
Lin, Lisha; Li, Yaqiong; Wu, Jing
2018-04-01
In the paper, the pricing of European options on two underlying assets with delays is discussed. By using the approach of equivalent martingale measure transformation, the market is proved to be complete. With exchange option as a particular example, we obtain the explicit pricing formula in a subinterval of option period. The robust Euler-Maruyama method is combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to compute exchange option prices within the whole option period. Numerical experiments indicate that there is an increasing possibility of the difference between the delayed and Black-Scholes option prices with the increase of delay.
The Earnings/Price Risk Factor in Capital Asset Pricing Models
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Rafael Falcão Noda
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This article integrates the ideas from two major lines of research on cost of equity and asset pricing: multi-factor models and ex ante accounting models. The earnings/price ratio is used as a proxy for the ex ante cost of equity, in order to explain realized returns of Brazilian companies within the period from 1995 to 2013. The initial finding was that stocks with high (low earnings/price ratios have higher (lower risk-adjusted realized returns, already controlled by the capital asset pricing model's beta. The results show that selecting stocks based on high earnings/price ratios has led to significantly higher risk-adjusted returns in the Brazilian market, with average abnormal returns close to 1.3% per month. We design asset pricing models including an earnings/price risk factor, i.e. high earnings minus low earnings, based on the Fama and French three-factor model. We conclude that such a risk factor is significant to explain returns on portfolios, even when controlled by size and market/book ratios. Models including the high earnings minus low earnings risk factor were better to explain stock returns in Brazil when compared to the capital asset pricing model and to the Fama and French three-factor model, having the lowest number of significant intercepts. These findings may be due to the impact of historically high inflation rates, which reduce the information content of book values, thus making the models based on earnings/price ratios better than those based on market/book ratios. Such results are different from those obtained in more developed markets and the superiority of the earnings/price ratio for asset pricing may also exist in other emerging markets.
Brock, W.A.; Hommes, C.H.
2001-01-01
This paper discusses dynamic evolutionary multi-agent systems, as introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997). In particular the heterogeneous agent dynamic asset pricing model of Brock and Hommes (1998) is extended by introducing derivative securities by means of price contingent contracts. Numerical
Consumption-based macroeconomic models of asset pricing theory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Đorđević Marija
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The family of consumptionbased asset pricing models yields a stochastic discount factor proportional to the marginal rate of intertemporal substitution of consumption. In examining the empirical performance of this class of models, several puzzles are discovered. In this literature review we present the canonical model, the corresponding empirical tests, and different extensions to this model that propose a resolution of these puzzles.
Measuring Risk Structure Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model
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Zdeněk Konečný
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This article is aimed at proposing of an inovative method for calculating the shares of operational and financial risks. This methodological tool will support managers while monitoring the risk structure. The method is based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM for calculation of equity cost, namely on determination of the beta coefficient, which is the only variable, that is dependent on entrepreneurial risk. There are combined both alternative approaches for calculation betas, which means, that there are accounting data used and there is distinguished unlevered beta and levered beta. The novelty of the proposed method is based on including of quantities for measuring operational and financial risks in beta calculation. The volatility of cash flow, as a quantity for measuring of operational risk, is included in the unlevered beta. Return on equity based on the cash flow and the indebtedness are variables used in calculation of the levered beta. This modification makes it possible to calculate the share of operational risk as the proportion of the unlevered/levered beta and the share of financial risk, which is the remainder of levered beta. The modified method is applied on companies from two sectors of the Czech economy. In the data set there are companies from one cyclical sector and from one neutral sector to find out potential differences in the risk structure. The findings show, that in both sectors the share of operational risk is over 50%, however, in the neutral sector is this more dominant.
Loss Aversion, Adaptive Beliefs, and Asset Pricing Dynamics
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Kamal Samy Selim
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We study asset pricing dynamics in artificial financial markets model. The financial market is populated with agents following two heterogeneous trading beliefs, the technical and the fundamental prediction rules. Agents switch between trading rules with respect to their past performance. The agents are loss averse over asset price fluctuations. Loss aversion behaviour depends on the past performance of the trading strategies in terms of an evolutionary fitness measure. We propose a novel application of the prospect theory to agent-based modelling, and by simulation, the effect of evolutionary fitness measure on adaptive belief system is investigated. For comparison, we study pricing dynamics of a financial market populated with chartists perceive losses and gains symmetrically. One of our contributions is validating the agent-based models using real financial data of the Egyptian Stock Exchange. We find that our framework can explain important stylized facts in financial time series, such as random walk price behaviour, bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, power-law tails in the distribution of returns, excess volatility, volatility clustering, the absence of autocorrelation in raw returns, and the power-law autocorrelations in absolute returns. In addition to this, we find that loss aversion improves market quality and market stability.
The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: a unification.
Ali Khan, M; Sun, Y
1997-04-15
We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset's return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen-Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting.
THE EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE AND EMOTIONAL ASSET PRICING
MARC GÜRTLER; NORA HARTMANN
2007-01-01
"Since the equity premium as well as the risk-free rate puzzle question the concepts central to financial and economic modeling, we apply behavioral decision theory to asset pricing in view of solving these puzzles. U.S. stock market data for the period 1960-2003 and German stock market data for the period 1977-2003 show that emotional investors who act in accordance to Bell's (1985) disappointment theory -a special case of prospect theory- and additionally administer mental accounts demand a...
International Asset Pricing, Currency Risk and Integration of Markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sema BAYRAKTAR
2014-11-01
Full Text Available This study attempts to test the conditional version of the international asset-pricing model proposed in Bayraktar (2000, 2009 by using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process. The theoretical model, contrary to previous empirical studies that have used random selection of currency risks, determines which currencies should be included in an empirical test, thus avoids this kind of random selection bias. The results from both full and sub-samples regressions provide some weak evidence for the existence of exchange rate risks, thus partially support the theory. However, exchange rate risks' premia are found considerably smaller than that of market risk.
Compensation schemes, liquidity provision, and asset prices: An experimental analysis
Baghestanian, Sascha; Gortner, Paul; Massenot, Baptiste
2015-01-01
In an experimental setting in which investors can entrust their money to traders, we investigate how compensation schemes affect liquidity provision and asset prices. Investors face a trade-off between risk and return. At the benefit of a potentially higher return, they can entrust their money to a trader. However this investment is risky, as the trader might not be trustworthy. Alternatively, they can opt for a safe but low return. We study how subjects solve this trade-off when traders are ...
The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: A unification
Khan, M. Ali; Sun, Yeneng
1997-01-01
We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset’s return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen–Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting. PMID:11038614
Willem H. Buiter
1987-01-01
Excess volatility tests for financial market efficiency maintain the hypothesis of risk-neutrality. This permits the specification of the benchmark efficient market price as the present discounted value of expected future dividends. By departing from the risk-neutrality assumption in a stripped-down version of Lucas's general equilibrium asset pricing model, I show that asset prices determined in a competitive asset market and efficient by construction can nevertheless violate the variance bo...
A Robust Rational Route to in a Simple Asset Pricing Model
Hommes, C.H.; Huang, H.; Wang, D.
2002-01-01
We investigate asset pricing dynamics in an adaptive evolutionary asset pricing model with fundamentalists, trend followers and a market maker. Agents can choose between a fundamentalist strategy at positive information cost or choose a trend following strategy for free. Price adjustment is proportional to the excess demand in the asset market. Agents asynchronously update their strategy according to realized net profits in the recent past. As agents become more sensitive to differences in st...
Using an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio to guide tactical asset allocation
Adrian Saville
2011-01-01
Asset allocation plays a central role in determining investment outcomes, and available evidence shows that portfolio results can be enhanced through tactical asset allocation if managers use the simple price-earnings ratio as a predictor of equity returns. Recently, some international evidence has emerged which shows that, by augmenting the price-earnings metric with information about consumer price inflation, further enhancements can be achieved in tactical asset allocation. This study rev...
Monetary Policy and Financial Asset Prices: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
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Imran Umer Chhapra
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism assumed to be significantly influenced by the effect of policy decisions on financial markets. However, various previous studies have come up with different outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of monetary policy on different asset classes (shares and bonds in Pakistan. This study using stock price and bond yield as dependent variable and discount rate, money supply, inflation, and exchange rate are independent variables. Data of all variables have collected from 2010 to 2016, and Vector Autoregressive (VAR technique has applied. The empirical results indicate that there is an impact of monetary policy components on both stock and bond market as an increase in policy rate causes decline in stocks prices and bonds yields. The findings of this study will help the potential investors in making long-term (in general and short-term (in particular investment strategies concerning monetary policy.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7099
Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Behavior
Xiaohong Chen; Sydney C. Ludvigson
2004-01-01
This paper studies the ability of a general class of habit-based asset pricing models to match the conditional moment restrictions implied by asset pricing theory. We treat the functional form of the habit as unknown, and to estimate it along with the rest of the model's finite dimensional parameters. Using quarterly data on consumption growth, assets returns and instruments, our empirical results indicate that the estimated habit function is nonlinear, the habit formation is better described...
Application of quantum master equation for long-term prognosis of asset-prices
Khrennikova, Polina
2016-05-01
This study combines the disciplines of behavioral finance and an extension of econophysics, namely the concepts and mathematical structure of quantum physics. We apply the formalism of quantum theory to model the dynamics of some correlated financial assets, where the proposed model can be potentially applied for developing a long-term prognosis of asset price formation. At the informational level, the asset price states interact with each other by the means of a ;financial bath;. The latter is composed of agents' expectations about the future developments of asset prices on the finance market, as well as financially important information from mass-media, society, and politicians. One of the essential behavioral factors leading to the quantum-like dynamics of asset prices is the irrationality of agents' expectations operating on the finance market. These expectations lead to a deeper type of uncertainty concerning the future price dynamics of the assets, than given by a classical probability theory, e.g., in the framework of the classical financial mathematics, which is based on the theory of stochastic processes. The quantum dimension of the uncertainty in price dynamics is expressed in the form of the price-states superposition and entanglement between the prices of the different financial assets. In our model, the resolution of this deep quantum uncertainty is mathematically captured with the aid of the quantum master equation (its quantum Markov approximation). We illustrate our model of preparation of a future asset price prognosis by a numerical simulation, involving two correlated assets. Their returns interact more intensively, than understood by a classical statistical correlation. The model predictions can be extended to more complex models to obtain price configuration for multiple assets and portfolios.
Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters
Koulovatianos, Christos; Wieland, Volker
2011-01-01
This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors’ information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs persist for s...
Using an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio to guide tactical asset allocation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adrian Saville
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Asset allocation plays a central role in determining investment outcomes, and available evidence shows that portfolio results can be enhanced through tactical asset allocation if managers use the simple price-earnings ratio as a predictor of equity returns. Recently, some international evidence has emerged which shows that, by augmenting the price-earnings metric with information about consumer price inflation, further enhancements can be achieved in tactical asset allocation. This study reviews these arguments as they apply to South Africa, and finds that an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio is more successful in forecasting equity returns than is the simple price-earnings ratio. Moreover, the metric is found to be significant in explaining relative asset class returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, however, the tool fails to improve the portfolio results when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.
Using an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio to guide tactical asset allocation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adrian Saville
2011-04-01
Full Text Available Asset allocation plays a central role in determining investment outcomes, and available evidence shows that portfolio results can be enhanced through tactical asset allocation if managers use the simple price-earnings ratio as a predictor of equity returns. Recently, some international evidence has emerged which shows that, by augmenting the price-earnings metric with information about consumer price inflation, further enhancements can be achieved in tactical asset allocation. This study reviews these arguments as they apply to South Africa, and finds that an inflation-augmented price-earnings ratio is more successful in forecasting equity returns than is the simple price-earnings ratio. Moreover, the metric is found to be significant in explaining relative asset class returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, however, the tool fails to improve the portfolio results when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.
Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing : Essays over het empirisch prijzen van financiele producten
R.W.M. Verbeek (Roy)
2017-01-01
textabstractThis dissertation consists of three essays on empirical asset pricing. In the first essay, I investigate whether common risk factors are priced across investment horizons. I show that only the market and size factors are priced, but only up to sixteen months. The results highlight the
Prediction future asset price which is non-concordant with the historical distribution
Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah
2015-12-01
This paper attempts to predict the major characteristics of the future asset price which is non-concordant with the distribution estimated from the price today and the prices on a large number of previous days. The three major characteristics of the i-th non-concordant asset price are the length of the interval between the occurrence time of the previous non-concordant asset price and that of the present non-concordant asset price, the indicator which denotes that the non-concordant price is extremely small or large by its values -1 and 1 respectively, and the degree of non-concordance given by the negative logarithm of the probability of the left tail or right tail of which one of the end points is given by the observed future price. The vector of three major characteristics of the next non-concordant price is modelled to be dependent on the vectors corresponding to the present and l - 1 previous non-concordant prices via a 3-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a 3(l + 1)-dimensional power-normal mixture distribution. The marginal distribution for each of the three major characteristics can then be derived from the conditional distribution. The mean of the j-th marginal distribution is an estimate of the value of the j-th characteristics of the next non-concordant price. Meanwhile, the 100(α/2) % and 100(1 - α/2) % points of the j-th marginal distribution can be used to form a prediction interval for the j-th characteristic of the next non-concordant price. The performance measures of the above estimates and prediction intervals indicate that the fitted conditional distribution is satisfactory. Thus the incorporation of the distribution of the characteristics of the next non-concordant price in the model for asset price has a good potential of yielding a more realistic model.
Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis
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Saban Celik
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to give a comprehensive theoretical review devoted to asset pricing models by emphasizing static and dynamic versions in the line with their empirical investigations. A considerable amount of financial economics literature devoted to the concept of asset pricing and their implications. The main task of asset pricing model can be seen as the way to evaluate the present value of the pay offs or cash flows discounted for risk and time lags. The difficulty coming from discounting process is that the relevant factors that affect the pay offs vary through the time whereas the theoretical framework is still useful to incorporate the changing factors into an asset pricing models. This paper fills the gap in literature by giving a comprehensive review of the models and evaluating the historical stream of empirical investigations in the form of structural empirical review.
Neoclassical and Behavioural Asset Pricing Models : The Case of Sri Lanka
Perera, Shenali Anne
2013-01-01
This study aims to provide a better understanding of the Sri Lankan stock market in terms of asset pricing models. In order to achieve this goal this research evaluates the Fama and French three-factor model and a behavioural asset pricing model to investigate which framework is better suited for security valuation in Sri Lanka. Accordingly findings reveal that small stocks with low book-to-market equity generate high realized returns. But results indicate that superior returns on these stock...
Excess co-movement in asset prices: The case of South Africa
Ocran, Mathew; Mlambo, Chipo
2009-01-01
The paper investigates excess co-movement in asset prices in South Africa between 1995 and 2005 using the definition of excess comovement as correlation between two asset prices beyond what could be explained by key economic fundamentals. The results of the study suggest that there is excess co-movement between returns on equities and bonds in South Africa. The findings suggest that there are considerable noise traders on the financial market in South Africa. The result of this behaviour woul...
Testing multi-factor asset pricing models in the Visegrad countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Morgese Borys, Magdalena
2011-01-01
Roč. 61, č. 2 (2011), s. 118-139 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : capital asset pricing model * macroeconomic factor models * asset pricing Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2011 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1208
Empirical Asset Pricing: Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert Shiller
Campbell, John Y.
2016-01-01
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for 2013 was awarded to Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, and Robert Shiller for their contributions to the empirical study of asset pricing. Some observers have found it hard to understand the common elements of the laureates research, preferring to highlight areas of disagreement among them. This paper argues that empirical asset pricing is a coherent enterprise, which owes much to the laureates seminal contributions, and that important themes in ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chi Xie
2017-01-01
Full Text Available With the quick development of the Internet, online platforms that provide financial news and opinions have attracted more and more attention from investors. The question whether investor sentiment expressed on the Internet platforms has an impact on asset return has not been fully addressed. To this end, this paper uses the Baidu Searching Index as the agent variable to detect the effect of online investor sentiment on the asset price movement in the Chinese stock market. The empirical study shows that although there is a cointegration relationship between online investor sentiment and asset return, the sentiment has a poor ability to predict the price, return, and volatility of asset price. Meanwhile, the structural break points of online investor sentiment do not lead to changes in the asset price movement. Based on the empirical mode decomposition of online investor sentiment, we find that high frequency components of online investor sentiment can be used to predict the asset price movement. Thus, the obtained results could be useful for risk supervision and asset portfolio management.
Intangible asset valuation, damages, and transfer price analyses in the health care industry.
Reilly, Robert F
2010-01-01
Most health care industry participants own and operate intangible assets. These intangible assets can be industry-specific (e.g., patient charts and records, certificates of need, professional and other licenses), or they can be general commercial intangible assets (e.g., trademarks, systems and procedures, an assembled workforce). Many industry participants have valued their intangible assets for financial accounting or other purposes. This article summarizes the intangible assets that are common to health care industry participants. This article describes the different types of intangible asset analyses (including valuation, transfer price, damages estimates, etc.), and explains the many different transaction, accounting, taxation, regulatory, litigation, and other reasons why industry participants may wish to value (or otherwise analyze) health care intangible assets.
Optimal Dynamic Pricing for Perishable Assets with Nonhomogeneous Demand
Wen Zhao; Yu-Sheng Zheng
2000-01-01
We consider a dynamic pricing model for selling a given stock of a perishable product over a finite time horizon. Customers, whose reservation price distribution changes over time, arrive according to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. We show that at any given time, the optimal price decreases with inventory. We also identify a sufficient condition under which the optimal price decreases over time for a given inventory level. This sufficient condition requires that the willingness of a custom...
Three-dimensional GIS approach for management of assets
Lee, S. Y.; Yee, S. X.; Majid, Z.; Setan, H.
2014-02-01
Assets play an important role in human life, especially to an organization. Organizations strive and put more effort to improve its operation and assets management. The development of GIS technology has become a powerful tool in management as it is able to provide a complete inventory for managing assets with location-based information. Spatial information is one of the requirements in decision making in various areas, including asset management in the buildings. This paper describes a 3D GIS approach for management of assets. An asset management system was developed by integrating GIS concept and 3D model assets. The purposes of 3D visualization to manage assets are to facilitate the analysis and understanding in the complex environment. Behind the 3D model of assets is a database to store the asset information. A user-friendly interface was also designed for more easier to operate the application. In the application developed, location of each individual asset can be easily tracked according to the referring spatial information and 3D viewing. The 3D GIS approach described in this paper is certainly would be useful in asset management. Systematic management of assets can be carried out and this will lead to less-time consuming and cost-effective. The results in this paper will show a new approach to improve asset management.
Three-dimensional GIS approach for management of assets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, S Y; Yee, S X; Majid, Z; Setan, H
2014-01-01
Assets play an important role in human life, especially to an organization. Organizations strive and put more effort to improve its operation and assets management. The development of GIS technology has become a powerful tool in management as it is able to provide a complete inventory for managing assets with location-based information. Spatial information is one of the requirements in decision making in various areas, including asset management in the buildings. This paper describes a 3D GIS approach for management of assets. An asset management system was developed by integrating GIS concept and 3D model assets. The purposes of 3D visualization to manage assets are to facilitate the analysis and understanding in the complex environment. Behind the 3D model of assets is a database to store the asset information. A user-friendly interface was also designed for more easier to operate the application. In the application developed, location of each individual asset can be easily tracked according to the referring spatial information and 3D viewing. The 3D GIS approach described in this paper is certainly would be useful in asset management. Systematic management of assets can be carried out and this will lead to less-time consuming and cost-effective. The results in this paper will show a new approach to improve asset management
THE ASSET PRICE CHANNEL AND ITS ROLE IN MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dan Horatiu
2013-07-01
Full Text Available his paper addresses the subject of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by focusing on the asset price channel, which is the monetary transmission channel responsible for the propagation of the effects induced by the monetary policy decisions made by the central bank that affect the price of assets. We will analyze the asset price channel by taking a close look at its structure, internal processes and the way it delivers monetary policy throughout the economy, ultimately influencing key variables such as the unemployment rate and the levels of consumption and production. After an introduction dealing with the entire monetary transmission mechanism, its role and purposes, we will focus on the particularities of the asset price channel and the two main ways in which it delivers monetary policy decision effects: through changes in Tobin’s q value, which is the ratio between the market value of a given company and its replacement cost of capital, and through the effect of wealth, both of financial and housing nature, on consumption. In our study, we will consider theoretical aspects and observations, but also empirical evidence that highlights that the exact way in which the asset price channel functions may differ from one economy to another due to differences in the structures of the respective economies and differences in psychology and cultural values of consumers. The deep understanding of the asset price transmission channel is very important for any central bank, as this is the channel that governs key aspects of monetary policy transmission linked to the market value of assets and individual wealth. These values have, as we will see in more detail throughout the paper, an important impact on both consumption and investment, two economic actions that can help the economy, but can also prove to be a crucial element in starting and perpetuating an economic crisis.
Pricing methodologies and approaches
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petrov, K.
2002-01-01
The following topics are dealt with: Role of regulatory control in the electric power market; Price regulation; Market monitoring; Quality of supply regulation; Regulatory challenges in Central and Eastern Europe. The findings of these questions are summarized in the Summary. (R.P.)
Approaches of Improving University Assets Management Efficiency
Wang, Jingliang
2015-01-01
University assets management, as an important content of modern university management, is generally confronted with the issue of low efficiency. Currently, to address the problems exposed in university assets management and take appropriate modification measures is an urgent issue in front of Chinese university assets management sectors. In this…
The Existence of Equilibrium Asset Price Under Diverse Information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Agus Sartono
2005-09-01
Our model shows that the more diverse the information, the higher the lambda coefficient which means the market becomes less liquid. The models consistent with Miller (1977 who found that the bigger the gap of private information is, the less liquid the market will be. If both informed traders have the same information they will demand the same amount of risky asset and it turns out to be similar as in the Kyle (1985 model.
Asset price and trade volume relation in artificial market impacted by value investors
Tangmongkollert, K.; Suwanna, S.
2016-05-01
The relationship between return and trade volume has been of great interests in a financial market. The appearance of asymmetry in the price-volume relation in the bull and bear market is still unsettled. We present a model of the value investor traders (VIs) in the double auction system, in which agents make trading decision based on the pseudo fundamental price modelled by sawtooth oscillations. We investigate the system by two different time series for the asset fundamental price: one corresponds to the fundamental price in a growing phase; and the other corresponds to that in a declining phase. The simulation results show that the trade volume is proportional to the difference between the market price and the fundamental price, and that there is asymmetry between the buying and selling phases. Furthermore, the selling phase has more significant impact of price on the trade volume than the buying phase.
Asset life and pricing the use of electricity transmission infrastructure in Chile
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raineri, Ricardo
2010-01-01
Beyond the different approaches to set regulated prices for the use of infrastructure, a key parameter to determine regulated tariffs is the concept of asset life and how it changes with changes in the economic and regulatory context, which determines the optimal infrastructure investment and replacement policies. In this paper we look at the effects that changes in demand, the presence of substitutes and complements, the regulatory framework - both a pro or an anticompetitive framework -, scale economies, and the investment planning horizon, have on the economic service life of an asset and the tariffs for its use. We find that as the electric industry becomes more competitive, a negative effect on the economic service life of electric electricity transmission should be expected. Also, numerical experiments illustrate an inverse relation between scale economies on investment and the ESL of electricity transmission infrastructure. Further, we look at the biases on optimal investment that happen when optimal plans do not observe the life cycle of the investments and the ESL of the equipment, as well as the inconsistency and biases on optimal investment and replacement policies that might result when the Social Planner optimal investment plan lacks of a long-term commitment. (author)
Asset life and pricing the use of electricity transmission infrastructure in Chile
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Raineri, Ricardo [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago (Chile)
2010-01-15
Beyond the different approaches to set regulated prices for the use of infrastructure, a key parameter to determine regulated tariffs is the concept of asset life and how it changes with changes in the economic and regulatory context, which determines the optimal infrastructure investment and replacement policies. In this paper we look at the effects that changes in demand, the presence of substitutes and complements, the regulatory framework - both a pro or an anticompetitive framework -, scale economies, and the investment planning horizon, have on the economic service life of an asset and the tariffs for its use. We find that as the electric industry becomes more competitive, a negative effect on the economic service life of electric electricity transmission should be expected. Also, numerical experiments illustrate an inverse relation between scale economies on investment and the ESL of electricity transmission infrastructure. Further, we look at the biases on optimal investment that happen when optimal plans do not observe the life cycle of the investments and the ESL of the equipment, as well as the inconsistency and biases on optimal investment and replacement policies that might result when the Social Planner optimal investment plan lacks of a long-term commitment. (author)
Corporate sustainability and asset pricing models: empirical evidence for the Brazilian stock market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vitor Gonçalves de Azevedo
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract The paper investigates the impact of corporate sustainability on asset prices. For that purpose, we develop a novel corporate sustainability factor and test the extent to which this factor is priced in an augmented four-factor version of the traditional Fama & French (1993 asset pricing model. The corporate sustainability factor is based on a zero-investment portfolio which is long in stocks with high sustainability and short in stocks with low sustainability. We use data on the Brazilian stock market to estimate alternative model specifications with different combinations of four explanatory variables: the corporate sustainability premium, the market risk factor premium, the size factor premium and the book-to-market factor premium. Our results indicate that corporate sustainability is priced and helps to explain the variability in the cross-section of expected stock returns.
Imperfect Knowledge, Asset Price Swings, and Structural Slumps
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Juselius, Katarina
2013-01-01
emphasizes real interest rates and real exchange rates as potentially important determinants underlying the persistent fluctuations in aggregate activities, and the latter provides the conditions under which speculative behavior in currency markets generates such persistence. The paper argues that by combing...... the two theories we can shed new light on the two-way interdependence between persistent swings in asset markets and persistent fluctuations in the real economy. In particular, we may improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind the long recurrent spells of high unemployment that continue to mar our...
"Asset Pricing With Multiplicative Habit and Power-Expo Preferences"
William T. Smith; Qiang Zhang
2006-01-01
Multiplicative habit introduces an additional consumption risk as a determinant of equity premium, and allows time preference and habit strength, in addition to risk aversion, to affect "price of risk". A model combining multiplicative habit and power-expo preferences cannot be rejected.
Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.
2012-01-01
Abstract: We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of passthrough of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong
Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.
2012-01-01
Abstract: We study the conditions that ensure rational expectations equilibrium (REE) determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) in a standard sticky-price model augmented with the cost channel. We allow for varying degrees of pass-through of the policy rate to bank-lending rates. Strong
26 CFR 1.338-4 - Aggregate deemed sale price; various aspects of taxation of the deemed asset sale.
2010-04-01
... 26 Internal Revenue 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Aggregate deemed sale price; various aspects of taxation of the deemed asset sale. 1.338-4 Section 1.338-4 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE... Aggregate deemed sale price; various aspects of taxation of the deemed asset sale. (a) Scope. This section...
Portfolio choice and asset pricing with endogenous beliefs and skewness preference
Karehnke, P.
2014-01-01
This thesis studies portfolio choice and asset pricing with preferences which go beyond the standard expected utility and mean-variance preferences. The first part of this thesis analyses a decision model in which the decision maker forms endogenous beliefs given his anticipation utility and his
Ambiguity Aversion, Asset Prices, and the Welfare Costs of Aggregate Fluctuations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Alonso, Irasema; Prado, Mauricio
2015-01-01
with a representative agent facing consumption fluctuations calibrated to match U.S. data from 1889 to 2008. Our experiment is to restrict preference parameters in order to as well as possible match some asset-price facts—the average returns on equity and a short-term risk-free bond—and then compute the welfare...
Real Implications of Bursting Asset Price Bubbles in Economies with Bank Credit
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Derviz, Alexis
2011-01-01
Roč. 61, č. 1 (2011), s. 92-116 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : bank * credit * asset price * bubble * macroprudential policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2011
Fabozzi, F.; Vink, D.
2012-01-01
In this paper, we empirically investigate what credit factors investors rely upon when pricing the spread at issue for European asset-backed securities. More specifically, we investigate how credit factors affect new issuance spreads after taking into account credit rating. We do so by investigating
Was Bernanke right? Targeting asset prices may not be a good idea after all
Assenza, T.; Berardi, M.; Delli Gatti, D.
2011-01-01
Should the central bank prevent "excessive" asset price dynamics or should it wait until the boom spontaneously turns into a crash and intervene only afterwards? The debate over this issue goes back at least to the exchange between Bernanke-Gertler (BG) and Cecchetti but has not settled yet. In
The capital-asset pricing model reconsidered: tests in real terms on ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper extends previous work of the authors to reconsider the capital-asset pricing model (CAPM) in South Africa in real terms. As in that work, the main question this study aimed to answer remains: Can the CAPM be accepted in the South African market for the purposes of the stochastic modelling of investment returns ...
Testing multi-factor asset pricing models in the Visegrad countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Morgese Borys, Magdalena
-, č. 323 (2007), s. 1-40 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : capital asset pricing model * macroeconomic factor models * cost of capital Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp323.pdf
Empirical test of Capital Asset Pricing Model on Selected Banking Shares from Borsa Istanbul
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fuzuli Aliyev
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper we tested Capital Asset Pricing Model (shortly CAPM hereafter on the selected banking stocks of Borsa Istanbul. Here we tried to explain how to price financial assets based on their risks in the case of BIST-100 index. CAPM is an important model in the portfolio management theory used by economic agents for the selection of financial assets. We used 12 random banking stocks’ monthly return data for 2001–2010 periods. To test the validity of the CAPM, we first derived the regression equation for the risk-free interest rate and risk premium relationship using January 2001–December 2009 data. Then, estimated January–December 2010 returns with the equation. Comparing forecasted return with the actual return, we concluded that the CAPM is valid for the portfolio consisting of the 12 banks traded in the ISE, i.e. The model could predict the overall outcome of portfolio of selected banking shares
Adaptive wavelet method for pricing two-asset Asian options with floating strike
Černá, Dana
2017-12-01
Asian options are path-dependent option contracts which payoff depends on the average value of the asset price over some period of time. We focus on pricing of Asian options on two assets. The model for pricing these options is represented by a parabolic equation with time variable and three state variables, but using substitution it can be reduced to the equation with only two state variables. For time discretization we use the θ-scheme. We propose a wavelet basis that is adapted to boundary conditions and use an adaptive scheme with this basis for discretization on the given time level. The main advantage of this scheme is small number of degrees of freedom. We present numerical experiments for the Asian put option with floating strike and compare the results for the proposed adaptive method and the Galerkin method.
Applicability of Investment and Profitability Effects in Asset Pricing Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Márcio André Veras Machado
2017-11-01
Full Text Available This study aims to investigate whether investment and profitability are priced and if they partially explain the variations of stock returns in the Brazilian stock market, according to the Fama and French’s (2015 five-factor model. By using time series and cross-section regression, we found that book-to-market, momentum and liquidity are associated with stock returns whereas investment and profitability were not significant. We also found that there is no investment premium in Brazil. Therefore, motivated by the importance of B/M, momentum and liquidity to the Brazilian stock market, as well as by the poor performance of profitability and investment, we document that Keene and Peterson’s (2007 five-factor model is superior to all other models, especially the five-factor model by Fama and French (2015.
APPROACHES CONCERNING ACCOUNTING OF INTANGIBLE ASSETS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gheorghe MOROSAN
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Given the importance of intangible assets in the company the paper aims to establish criteria for recognizing and measuring these assets through which the company can not only reflect the true value and its carrying amount. The main objective is to formulate a logical definition of intangible assets in accounting terms that allows their recognition in financial reporting to help build an accurate image of the company. It will demonstrate how important intangible assets for a successful company are and how they can help develop the economy and especially the Romanian economy. The secondary objectives are: - Setting limits in the valuation of intellectual capital from the point of view of internal control and external - Create a new post in the balance sheet to include this related value
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pinto, Rinaldo Caldeira; Parente, Virginia [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)], emails: rinaldo@iee.usp.br, vparente@iee.usp.br
2010-07-01
The aim of this paper is to analyse the use of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Beta in the Brazilian electric distribution sector tariffs review. The betas applied by the Regulatory Agency are defined using data from the American, English and Brazilian markets. These betas will then be compared to the betas obtained in the domestic market. The betas were directly obtained from an economic-financial databank largely employed by the market. The sample is composed of companies' shares, priced at Sao Paulo Stock Market. Their main activity is the distribution of electric energy between July 2002 and July 2007. The results of mean betas obtained for the distribution segment, with values close to the ones applied by the regulatory agency for the cycle of tariff reviews between 2007-2010. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pinto, Rinaldo Caldeira; Parente, Virginia, E-mail: rinaldo@iee.usp.br, E-mail: vparente@iee.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)
2010-07-01
The aim of this paper is to analyse the use of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Beta in the Brazilian electric distribution sector tariffs review. The betas applied by the Regulatory Agency are defined using data from the American, English and Brazilian markets. These betas will then be compared to the betas obtained in the domestic market. The betas were directly obtained from an economic-financial databank largely employed by the market. The sample is composed of companies' shares, priced at Sao Paulo Stock Market. Their main activity is the distribution of electric energy between July 2002 and July 2007. The results of mean betas obtained for the distribution segment, with values close to the ones applied by the regulatory agency for the cycle of tariff reviews between 2007-2010. (author)
Asset Pricing Model and the Liquidity Effect: Empirical Evidence in the Brazilian Stock Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Otávio Ribeiro de Medeiros
2011-09-01
Full Text Available This paper is aims to analyze whether a liquidity premium exists in the Brazilian stock market. As a second goal, we include liquidity as an extra risk factor in asset pricing models and test whether this factor is priced and whether stock returns were explained not only by systematic risk, as proposed by the CAPM, by Fama and French’s (1993 three-factor model, and by Carhart’s (1997 momentum-factor model, but also by liquidity, as suggested by Amihud and Mendelson (1986. To achieve this, we used stock portfolios and five measures of liquidity. Among the asset pricing models tested, the CAPM was the least capable of explaining returns. We found that the inclusion of size and book-to-market factors in the CAPM, a momentum factor in the three-factor model, and a liquidity factor in the four-factor model improve their explanatory power of portfolio returns. In addition, we found that the five-factor model is marginally superior to the other asset pricing models tested.
Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for the reconstruction of bipartite financial networks
Squartini, Tiziano; Almog, Assaf; Caldarelli, Guido; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego; Cimini, Giulio
2017-09-01
Reconstructing patterns of interconnections from partial information is one of the most important issues in the statistical physics of complex networks. A paramount example is provided by financial networks. In fact, the spreading and amplification of financial distress in capital markets are strongly affected by the interconnections among financial institutions. Yet, while the aggregate balance sheets of institutions are publicly disclosed, information on single positions is mostly confidential and, as such, unavailable. Standard approaches to reconstruct the network of financial interconnection produce unrealistically dense topologies, leading to a biased estimation of systemic risk. Moreover, reconstruction techniques are generally designed for monopartite networks of bilateral exposures between financial institutions, thus failing in reproducing bipartite networks of security holdings (e.g., investment portfolios). Here we propose a reconstruction method based on constrained entropy maximization, tailored for bipartite financial networks. Such a procedure enhances the traditional capital-asset pricing model (CAPM) and allows us to reproduce the correct topology of the network. We test this enhanced CAPM (ECAPM) method on a dataset, collected by the European Central Bank, of detailed security holdings of European institutional sectors over a period of six years (2009-2015). Our approach outperforms the traditional CAPM and the recently proposed maximum-entropy CAPM both in reproducing the network topology and in estimating systemic risk due to fire sales spillovers. In general, ECAPM can be applied to the whole class of weighted bipartite networks described by the fitness model.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stadtmann, Georg; Moritzen; Jörgensen
2012-01-01
According to the news model of asset price determination, only the unexpected component of an information should drive the stock price. We use the Danish publicly listed football club Brøndby IF to analyse how match outcome impacts the stock price. To disentangle gross news from net news, betting...
Heterogeneous traders, price-volume signals, and complex asset price dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank H. Westerhoff
2005-01-01
model reveal that interactions between fundamentalists and chartists may cause intricate endogenous price fluctuations. Contrary to the intuition, we find that chart trading may increase market stability.
Skewed Normal Distribution Of Return Assets In Call European Option Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Evy Sulistianingsih
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Option is one of security derivates. In financial market, option is a contract that gives a right (notthe obligation for its owner to buy or sell a particular asset for a certain price at a certain time.Option can give a guarantee for a risk that can be faced in a market.This paper studies about theuse of Skewed Normal Distribution (SN in call europeanoption pricing. The SN provides aflexible framework that captures the skewness of log return. We obtain aclosed form solution forthe european call option pricing when log return follow the SN. Then, we will compare optionprices that is obtained by the SN and the Black-Scholes model with the option prices of market.Â Keywords: skewed normaldistribution, log return, options.
Dynamic Relationships between Price and Net Asset Value for Asian Real Estate Stocks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kim Hiang LIOW
2018-03-01
Full Text Available This paper examines short- and long-term behavior of the price-to net asset value ratio in six Asian public real estate markets. We find mean-reverting behavior of the ratio and spillover effects, where each of the examined public real estate markets correlates with other markets. Additionally, the unexpected shock correlating with the price-to-net asset value ratio in one market has a positive or negative correlation with the ratios of other markets. Our results offer fresh insights to portfolio managers, policymakers, and academic researchers into the regional and country market dynamics of public real estate valuation and cross-country interaction from the long-term and short-term perspectives.
Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.
2002-07-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)
Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.
2002-01-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)
Discounted Cash Flow and Modern Asset Pricing Methods - Project Selection and Policy Implications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M
2002-07-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPV's) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and a Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cash flow components. NPV differences of more than $1 Om were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Emhjellen, Magne; Alaouze, Chris M.
2003-01-01
We examine the differences in the net present values (NPVs) of North Sea oil projects obtained using the weighted average cost of capital and a modern asset pricing (MAP) method which involves the separate discounting of project cashflow components. NPV differences of more than $10 million were found for some oil projects. Thus, the choice of valuation method will affect the development decisions of oil companies and could influence tax policy. The results of the MAP method are very sensitive to the choice of parameter values for the stochastic process used to model oil prices. Further research is recommended before the MAP method is used as the sole valuation model
Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Models
Sydney Ludvigson; Xiaohong Chen
2004-01-01
A leading explanation of aggregate stock market behavior suggests that assets are priced as if there were a representative investor whose utility is a power function of the difference between aggregate consumption and a "habit" level, where the habit is some function of lagged and (possibly) contemporaneous consumption. But theory does not provide precise guidelines about the parametric functional relationship between the habit and aggregate consumption. This makes formal estimation and testi...
Olga Klinkowska
2009-01-01
In this paper I develop the asset pricing model in which the wealth portfolio is enriched with human capital and housing capital. These two types of capital account for a significant portion of the total wealth. Additionally I introduce dynamics into the model and represent conditioning information by common factors estimated with dynamic factor methodology. In this way I can use more accurate representative of the unobservable information set of the investors. Obtained results prove that ind...
Back to the Future Betas: Empirical Asset Pricing of US and Southeast Asian Markets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jordan French
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The study adds an empirical outlook on the predicting power of using data from the future to predict future returns. The crux of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM methodology is using historical data in the calculation of the beta coefficient. This study instead uses a battery of Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH models, of differing lag and parameter terms, to forecast the variance of the market used in the denominator of the beta formula. The covariance of the portfolio and market returns are assumed to remain constant in the time-varying beta calculations. The data spans from 3 January 2005 to 29 December 2014. One ten-year, two five-year, and three three-year sample periods were used, for robustness, with ten different portfolios. Out of sample forecasts, mean absolute error (MAE and mean squared forecast error (MSE were used to compare the forecasting ability of the ex-ante GARCH models, Artificial Neural Network, and the standard market ex-post model. Find that the time-varying MGARCH and SGARCH beta performed better with out-of-sample testing than the other ex-ante models. Although the simplest approach, constant ex-post beta, performed as well or better within this empirical study.
A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo
2006-01-01
We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model
Game Options approach in bankruptcy triggering asset value
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdelmajid El hajaji
2019-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a new numerical method, game theory and option pricing to compute a bankruptcy triggering asset value. we will draw our attention to determining a the numerical asset value, or price of a share, at which a bankruptcy is triggered. This paper develops and analyze a cubic spline collocation method for approximating solutions of the problem. This method converges quadratically. In addition, this article also provides with a real-life case study of the investment bank, and the optimal bankruptcy strategy in this particular case. As we will observe, the bankruptcy trigger computed in this example could have served as a good guide for predicting fall of this investment bank.
Cost approach of health care entity intangible asset valuation.
Reilly, Robert F
2012-01-01
In the valuation synthesis and conclusion process, the analyst should consider the following question: Does the selected valuation approach(es) and method(s) accomplish the analyst's assignment? Also, does the selected valuation approach and method actually quantify the desired objective of the intangible asset analysis? The analyst should also consider if the selected valuation approach and method analyzes the appropriate bundle of legal rights. The analyst should consider if there were sufficient empirical data available to perform the selected valuation approach and method. The valuation synthesis should consider if there were sufficient data available to make the analyst comfortable with the value conclusion. The valuation analyst should consider if the selected approach and method will be understandable to the intended audience. In the valuation synthesis and conclusion, the analyst should also consider which approaches and methods deserve the greatest consideration with respect to the intangible asset's RUL. The intangible asset RUL is a consideration of each valuation approach. In the income approach, the RUL may affect the projection period for the intangible asset income subject to either yield capitalization or direct capitalization. In the cost approach, the RUL may affect the total amount of obsolescence, if any, from the estimate cost measure (that is, the intangible reproduction cost new or replacement cost new). In the market approach, the RUL may effect the selection, rejection, and/or adjustment of the comparable or guideline intangible asset sale and license transactional data. The experienced valuation analyst will use professional judgment to weight the various value indications to conclude a final intangible asset value, based on: The analyst's confidence in the quantity and quality of available data; The analyst's level of due diligence performed on that data; The relevance of the valuation method to the intangible asset life cycle stage and
Global Asset Pricing: Is There a Role for Long-run Consumption Risk?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rangvid, Jesper; Schmelling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas
We estimate long-run consumption-based asset pricing models using a comprehensive set of international test assets, including broad equity market portfolios, international value/growth portfolios, and international bond portfolios. We find that differences in returns across assets within a countr...... that consumption growth is more predictable over short to medium-run horizons than over longer horizons and that empirical evidence of a de- clining risk aversion parameter estimate in long-run risk models has to be interpreted with care....... are sometimes (and most prominently for the U.S.) better captured by the assets' exposure to long-run consumption risk as opposed to their exposure to one-period changes in consumption (the canonical consumption CAPM). Across countries, however, exposure to long-run consumption risk does not provide a better...... fit than the canonical consumption CAPM. Thus, when characterizing the cross-country distribution of returns, long-run consumption risk does not seem to play any particular role, even if long-run risk is important for explaining the cross section of expected returns in the U.S. Furthermore, we show...
An Asset-Based Approach to Tribal Community Energy Planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gutierrez, Rachael A. [Pratt Inst., Brooklyn, NY (United States). City and Regional Planning; Martino, Anthony [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Materials, Devices, and Energy Technologies; Begay, Sandra K. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Materials, Devices, and Energy Technologies
2016-08-01
Community energy planning is a vital component of successful energy resource development and project implementation. Planning can help tribes develop a shared vision and strategies to accomplish their energy goals. This paper explores the benefits of an asset-based approach to tribal community energy planning. While a framework for community energy planning and federal funding already exists, some areas of difficulty in the planning cycle have been identified. This paper focuses on developing a planning framework that offsets those challenges. The asset-based framework described here takes inventory of a tribe’s capital assets, such as: land capital, human capital, financial capital, and political capital. Such an analysis evaluates how being rich in a specific type of capital can offer a tribe unique advantages in implementing their energy vision. Finally, a tribal case study demonstrates the practical application of an asset-based framework.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nila Cahyati
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Investasi mempunyai karakteristik antara return dan resiko. Pembentukan portofolio optimal digunakan untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan dan meminimumkan resiko. Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM merupakan metode pengembangan baru dari CAPM yang dipengaruhi likuiditas. Indikator likuiditas apabila digabungkan dengan metode CAPM dapat membantu memaksimalkan return dan meminimumkan resiko. Tujuan penelitian adalah membandingkan expected retun dan resiko saham serta mengetahui proporsi pada portofolio optimal. Sampel yang digunakan merupakan saham JII (Jakarta Islamic Index periode Januari 2013 – November 2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa expected return portofolio LCAPM sebesar 0,0956 dengan resiko 0,0043 yang membentuk proporsi saham AALI (55,19% dan saham PGAS (44,81%.
Explaining Asset Prices with Low Risk Aversion and Low Intertemporal Substitution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andreasen, Martin Møller; Jørgensen, Kasper
model to explain asset prices with a low relative risk aversion (RRA) of 9.8 and a low intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of 0:11. We also show that the proposed preferences allow an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to match the equity premium, the bond premium, and the risk-free rate......This paper extends the class of Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences with a new utility kernel that disentangles uncertainty about the consumption trend (long-run risk) from short-term variation around this trend (cyclical risk). Our estimation results show that these preferences enable the long-run risk...
The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Evaluation of its Potential as a Strategic Planning Tool
Thomas H. Naylor; Francis Tapon
1982-01-01
In this paper we provide a summary of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and point out how it might possibly be used as a tool for strategic planning by corporations that own a portfolio of businesses. We also point out some of the assumptions underlying the CAPM which must be satisfied if it is to be used for strategic planning. Next we include a critical appraisal of the CAPM as a strategic planning tool. Finally, we state the case for linking competitive strategy models, CAPM models, a...
Rypdal, Martin; Sirnes, Espen; Løvsletten, Ola; Rypdal, Kristoffer
2013-08-01
Maximum likelihood estimation techniques for multifractal processes are applied to high-frequency data in order to quantify intermittency in the fluctuations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency parameter λ characterising the degree of volatility clustering. We can therefore study the time evolution of volatility clustering and test the statistical significance of this variability. By analysing data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, and comparing the results with the investment grade spread, we find that the estimates of λ are lower at times of high market uncertainty.
CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) and regulation in Brazilian electric distribution sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pinto, Rinaldo Caldeira; Parente, Virginia
2010-01-01
The aim of this paper is to analyse the use of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Beta in the Brazilian electric distribution sector tariffs review. The betas applied by the Regulatory Agency are defined using data from the American, English and Brazilian markets. These betas will then be compared to the betas obtained in the domestic market. The betas were directly obtained from an economic-financial databank largely employed by the market. The sample is composed of companies' shares, priced at Sao Paulo Stock Market. Their main activity is the distribution of electric energy between July 2002 and July 2007. The results of mean betas obtained for the distribution segment, with values close to the ones applied by the regulatory agency for the cycle of tariff reviews between 2007-2010. (author)
Coordination between offshore transmission assets - A third way approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Silva, Filipe Miguel Faria da
2014-01-01
of coordination between assets. This paper analyses the Ofgem’s document ”Consultation on a proposed framework to enable coordination of offshore transmission” and summarises its proposals. The developer-lead approach used in UK is compared with the TSO-lead approach used in Denmark, regarding potential...
Transfer Pricing - An Innovative Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ramona MAXIM
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents transfer pricing and elements of drafting the transfer pricing file by the big companies. The transfer pricing procedure was founded based upon Order no. 442/2016 and the Fiscal Procedure Code and it represents a method upon which the tax base is transferred from a high tax country to a country with low taxation. This legislation outlines the conditions which companies must observe in order to draft the transfer pricing documentation and the significance thresholds. The purpose to draft a transfer pricing file is to reduce the differences between prices and market value and the actual results of company taxation. Economic double taxation occurs when tax authorities apply price adjustments because the company did not respect the principle of market value. Keeping records of transfer pricing and practicing a price aligned to market requirements contribute to an understanding of business development and the creation of appropriate tax planning. Taking into account all these aspects and the fact that any taxpayer is tempted to pay the lowest possible fees, tax havens become an option. In this context we can speak of a tax haven as a loophole in the use of the market price.
Higher-order co-moments in asset pricing on the stock exchange in Brazil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paulo Vitor Jordão da Gama Silva
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This study seeks to identify the behavior of systemic asymmetry (coskewness and systemic kurtosis (cokurtosis in asset pricing on the Brazilian stock exchange (in BM&F Bovespa. The methodology explored by Harvey and Siddique (2000 was used to estimate the degree of coskewness and cokurtosis for stocks in each month t, following the CAPM regression. The three-factor model was used according to Fama and French (1993, with modifications to the calculation of the factors following the methodology exploited by Neves (2003. The results show that for the Brazilian market, assets with negative coskewness and cokurtosis tend to yield more than assets with positive coskewness and cokurtosis. According to observations in the American and London markets, as investors expect higher returns for the high risk, a preference was found for negative coskewness and positive cokurtosis. In Brazil, it was found that in the case of coskewness, it repeats itself, but not for cokurtosis, where the reverse is true, which can lead to the conclusion of a typically risk-averse behavior.
Just value of the Tactebel energy: an valuation from the main models of pricing asset
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Renato Campos
2010-01-01
Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the current fair value of Tractebel Energia, from the main asset pricing models. The company was taken as the object due to its stable growth and the ease of obtaining data, since it is located in the city of Florianopolis. Nevertheless, the volatility in its shares has been priced aroused interest. Therefore, this study intended to provide subsidy for the decision making of investors regarding the purchase or sale of company stock. For this, the theoretical treat on the concept of asset valuation and the main models available, emphasizing their applications and limitations, which are: assessment book on, discounted dividend model and discounted cash flow. Regarding the methodological aspect, the research fits into exploratory, descriptive, highly quantitative field study and case. Moreover, it was made use of desk research, literature, interview and program Economática. Thus, the analysis of data initially sought to raise the assumptions demanded by each of the models surveyed ad apply them. The results were then compared and adjusted so that there is consistency. He was later adopted an arithmetic mean to assign a fair value to the company. From this average was defined as an acceptance range, depending on the variability of results and uncertainty in the estimates.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sayed H. Saghaian
2014-04-01
Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the effects of the recent Federal Reserve’s purchases of longterm assets on prices of agricultural commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases began at the end of 2008, after the Great Recession, and the second purchases began in November of 2010. The commodities included in this analysis are meats (beef, pork, and broilers, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice, and softs (sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton. Using historical decompositions, we find significant increases in the nominal agricultural prices of ten out of 12 agricultural commodities under investigation from the second large-scale asset purchases (in 2010 but the first set large-scale asset purchases had only two positive effects.
A hybrid linked data approach to support asset management
Luiten, G.T.; Bohms, H.M.; O'Keeffe, A.; Nederveen, S. van; Bakker, J.; Wikstrom, L.
2016-01-01
This paper evaluates experiences with applying a linked data approach for coping with the many challenges for information management in asset management from the perspective of National Road Authorities (NRAs). As influential players, NRAs are often the initiators of innovation in the civil
A Note on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Model Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erhan Bayraktar
2014-10-01
Full Text Available We show that the recent results on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem in the context of model uncertainty can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (hedging options are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of robust no-arbitrage which turns out to be equivalent to no-arbitrage under the additional assumption that hedging options with non-zero spread are non-redundant. A key result is the closedness of the set of attainable claims, which requires a new proof in our setting.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suripto Suripto
2017-03-01
Full Text Available This research tested the influence of characteristics of the firms and of EVA (Eco-nomic Value Added to stock of returns. This Research sample was company Self-100 ValueCreator of year 2001 until 2006. Result of research indicated that company size measure,profitability, capital structure (characteristics of the firms and EVA by stimulant had aneffect on significant to stock of returns, but by partial only characteristics company. Condi-tion of company fundamentals had an effect on significance to stock of returns. This indica-tion that investor still considered factors of fundamentals was having investment. EVA didnot have an effect on significant to stock of returns. This finding indicated that Model deter-mination of stock of returns (CAPM Irrelevant determined the level of EVA and also indicatedthat CAPM (Capital Assets Pricing Model was not relevant in determining stock of returns inIndonesian Stock Exchange.
Generation unit selection via capital asset pricing model for generation planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cahyadi, Romy; Jo Min, K. [College of Engineering, Ames, IA (United States); Chunghsiao Wang [LG and E Energy Corp., Louisville, KY (United States); Abi-Samra, Nick [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
2003-07-01
The electric power industry in many parts of U.S.A. is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational changes. Such changes introduce substantial financial risk in generation planning. In order to incorporate the financial risk into the capital investment decision process of generation planning, in this paper, we develop and analyse a generation unit selection process via the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In particular, utilizing realistic data on gas-fired, coal-fired, and wind power generation units, we show which and how concrete steps can be taken for generation planning purposes. It is hoped that the generation unit selection process developed in this paper will help utilities in the area of effective and efficient generation planning when financial risks are considered. (Author)
Generation unit selection via capital asset pricing model for generation planning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Romy Cahyadi; K. Jo Min; Chung-Hsiao Wang; Nick Abi-Samra [College of Engineering, Ames, IA (USA)
2003-11-01
The USA's electric power industry is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational changes. Such changes introduce substantial financial risk in generation planning. In order to incorporate the financial risk into the capital investment decision process of generation planning, this paper develops and analyses a generation unit selection process via the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). In particular, utilizing realistic data on gas-fired, coal-fired, and wind power generation units, the authors show which and how concrete steps can be taken for generation planning purposes. It is hoped that the generation unit selection process will help utilities in the area of effective and efficient generation planning when financial risks are considered. 20 refs., 14 tabs.
The capital asset pricing model versus the three factor model: A United Kingdom Perspective
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Chandra Shekhar Bhatnagar
2013-07-01
Full Text Available The Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Black (1972 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM postulates that the equilibrium rates of return on all risky assets are a linear function of their covariance with the market portfolio. Recent work by Fama and French (1996, 2006 introduce a Three Factor Model that questions the “real world application” of the CAPM Theorem and its ability to explain stock returns as well as value premium effects in the United States market. This paper provides an out-of-sample perspective to the work of Fama and French (1996, 2006. Multiple regression is used to compare the performance of the CAPM, a split sample CAPM and the Three Factor Model in explaining observed stock returns and value premium effects in the United Kingdom market. The methodology of Fama and French (2006 was used as the framework for this study. The findings show that the Three Factor Model holds for the United Kingdom Market and is superior to the CAPM and the split sample CAPM in explaining both stock returns and value premium effects. The “real world application” of the CAPM is therefore not supported by the United Kingdom data.
Cruise tourism: a hedonic pricing approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Josep Maria Espinet-Rius
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect on price of different cruise industry characteristics from the point of view of actual prices. The analysis is carried out from the supply side but taking into account the real prices paid by customers. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses the hedonic price methodology. To develop this research, a database of more than 36,000 prices paid by cruise passengers and different characteristics of ships in 2013 was built. To obtain the results, ten models have been developed with significant adjusted R2 of between 0.85 and 0.93 making the models and results robust. Findings - The results show that the main attributes affecting prices are the number of nights of the itinerary, the departure date, the number of days before departure the booking is made, the accommodation type and some facilities, such as casinos, cinemas and swimming pools. The results also yield a ranking of ship companies based on price and quality dimensions. Finally, the authors suggest some implications for management and new research. Originality/value - This paper offers a new approach in the academic literature of the cruise industry in two respects. First, in its use of a broad database of actual prices paid by passengers – more than 36,000 observations. Second, in the application of the hedonic pricing methodology, widely used in the tourism sector (see the Methodology and Database section but until now not in the cruising segment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Felipe Dias Paiva
2005-06-01
Full Text Available This study analyzed the Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM as well as the Downside Capital Asset Pricing Model D-CAPM and evaluated the latter as an efficient alternative asset pricing model. The returns of 40 companies on the São Paulo Stock Exchange BOVESPA were studied between December 1996 and August 2002. To test the models the study used as variables the Interbank Deposit Certificate CDI as a risk free asset and the Index of São Paulo Stock Exchange IBOVESPA as a proxy of the market portfolio. The D-CAPM was shown to be more useful in explaining the return of the stock market than the CAPM.O objetivo deste estudo é analisar o capital asset pricing model (CAPM e o downside capital asset pricing model (D-CAPM, bem como avaliar se este último modelo é uma eficiente alternativa de modelo de precificação de ativos. Os dados da pesquisa referem-se a 40 retornos de companhias listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, de dezembro de 1996 a agosto de 2002. O artigo utilizou, para testar os modelos, as variáveis Certificado de Depósito Interbancário (CDI, como um ativo livre de risco, e o índice da Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo (Ibovespa, como proxy do portfólio de mercado. Conclui-se, então, que o D-CAPM possui uma maior capacidade explicativa dos retornos dos ativos se comparado ao CAPM.
Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin
2016-01-01
We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China's stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank's policymaking.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo
Full Text Available ABSTRACT This article examines three models for pricing risky assets, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM from Sharpe and Lintner, the three factor model from Fama and French, and the four factor model from Carhart, in the Brazilian mark et for the period from 2002 to 2013. The data is composed of shares traded on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA on a monthly basis, excluding financial sector shares, those with negative net equity, and those without consecutive monthly quotations. The proxy for market return is the Brazil Index (IBrX and for riskless assets savings accounts are used. The 2008 crisis, an event of immense proportions and market losses, may have caused alterations in the relationship structure of risky assets, causing changes in pricing model results. Division of the total period into pre-crisis and post-crisis sub-periods is the strategy used in order to achieve the main objective: to analyze the effects of the crisis on asset pricing model results and their predictive power. It is verified that the factors considered are relevant in the Brazilian market in both periods, but between the periods, changes occur in the statistical relevance of sensitivities to the market premium and to the value factor. Moreover, the predictive ability of the pricing models is greater in the post-crisis period, especially for the multifactor models, with the four factor model able to improve predictions of portfolio returns in this period by up to 80%, when compared to the CAPM.
Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Botterud, Audun [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
2017-11-29
We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is a complex area of research and there is much more to be done to increase understanding of how VRE impacts the dynamics of current and future electricity markets. While more analysis is warranted, including additional location-specific assessments, several high-level findings emerge from this synthesis: -VRE Is Already Impacting the Bulk Power Market -VRE Impacts on Average Wholesale Prices Have Been Modest -VRE Impacts on Power Plant Retirements Have So Far Been Limited -VRE Impacts on the Bulk Power Market will Grow with Penetration -The ’System Value’ of VRE will Decline with Penetration -Power System Flexibility Can Reduce the Rate of VRE Value Decline All generation types are unique in some respect—bringing benefits and challenges to the power system—and wholesale markets, industry investments, and operational procedures have evolved over time to manage the characteristics of a changing generation fleet. With increased VRE penetrations, power system planners, operators, regulators, and policymakers will continue to be challenged to develop methods to smoothly and cost-effectively manage the reliable integration of these new and growing sources of electricity supply.
A utility theory approach for insurance pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohsen Gharakhani
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Providing insurance contract with “deductible” is beneficial for both insurer and insured. In this paper, we provide a utility modeling approach to handle insurance pricing and evaluate the tradeoff between discount benefit and deductible level. We analyze four different pricing problems of no insurance, full insurance coverage, insurance with β% deductible and insurance with D-dollar deductible based on a given utility function. A numerical example is also used to illustrate some interesting results.
Transfer pricing file- a contextualized Approach. Case Study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Boiţă
2013-12-01
Full Text Available The transfer price is basically the price used for transfer of tangible and intangible assets between related parties and it should be determined on the basis of market value without being influenced by the relationship of affiliation. However, if for services or tangible assets, the comparison of the transfer price to the market one is relatively easy to achieve, for the intangible ones, quantifying future benefits waived by the affiliated person compared to the situation in which it would be independent is harder to be established.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Burtnyak Ivan V.
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In the paper we apply the spectral theory to find the price for derivatives of financial assets assuming that the processes described are Markov processes and such that can be considered in the Hilbert space L^2 using the Sturm-Liouville theory. Bessel diffusion processes are used in studying Asian options. We consider the financial flows generated by the Bessel diffusions by expressing them in terms of the system of Bessel functions of the first kind, provided that they take into account the linear combination of the flow and its spatial derivative. Such expression enables calculating the size of the market portfolio and provides a measure of the amount of internal volatility in the market at any given moment, allows investigating the dynamics of the equity market. The expansion of the Green function in terms of the system of Bessel functions is expressed by an analytic formula that is convenient in calculating the volume of financial flows. All assumptions are natural, result in analytic formulas that are consistent with the empirical data and, when applied in practice, adequately reflect the processes in equity markets.
THE APPLICATION OF THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL ON THE CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET
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Bojan Tomic
2013-12-01
Full Text Available The paper describes and analyzes the application of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM and the single-index model on the Zagreb stock exchange during the drop in the total trade turnover, and mostly in the trade of equity securities. This model shows through the analysis techniques used to estimate the systematic risk per share compared to the market portfolio. Also, the model quantifies the environment in which a company and its stocks exist, expressing it as risk, or a beta coefficient. Furthermore, with respect to the market stagnation, one can also discuss the usefulness of the model, especially if the quality of the input data is questionable. In this regard, the importance of the proper application and interpretation of the results obtained based on the model during the stagnation of the market, and especially during the stagnation of the trade of equity securities, is gaining even greater importance and significance. On the other hand, the results obtained through the analysis of data point to problems arising during the application of the model. It turns out the main problem of applying the CAPM model is the market index with negative returns during the observation period.
Testing Capital Asset Pricing Model: Empirical Evidences from Indian Equity Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kapil CHOUDHARY
2010-11-01
Full Text Available The present study examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM for the Indian stock market using monthly stock returns from 278 companies of BSE 500 Index listed on the Bombay stock exchange for the period of January 1996 to December 2009. The findings of this study are not substantiating the theory’s basic result that higher risk (beta is associated with higher levels of return. The model does explain, however, excess returns and thus lends support to the linear structure of the CAPM equation. The theory’s prediction for the intercept is that it should equal zero and the slope should equal the excess returns on the market portfolio. The results of the study lead to negate the above hypotheses and offer evidence against the CAPM. The tests conducted to examine the nonlinearity of the relationship between return and betas bolster the hypothesis that the expected return-beta relationship is linear. Additionally, this study investigates whether the CAPM adequately captures all-important determinants of returns including the residual variance of stocks. The results exhibit that residual risk has no effect on the expected returns of portfolios.
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Zainul Hasan Quthbi
2017-10-01
Artikel ini bermaksud untuk menganalisis saham syariah yang tergolong efisien untuk keputusan investasi dengan menggunakan SCAPM (Shari’a Compliant Asset Pricing Model. SCAPM adalah bentuk modifikasi dari CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model yang bertujuan agar kerangka model analisis masih dalam kerangka syariah. Teknik pengumpulan data adalah dokumentasi dari data yang bersifat sekunder. Digunakan 13 sampel saham syariah pada penelitian ini dengan kriteria saham syariah yang konsisten masuk pada JII (Jakarta Islamic Index periode penelitian Desember 2013 hingga November 2016 dan memiliki pengembalian saham individual positif. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan terdapat 9 saham syariah yang tergolong efisien dan 4 sisanya tidak efisien. Saham PT. Adaro Energy memiliki nilai RVAR terbesar yang berarti memiliki kinerja saham paling baik.
Robert Gallagher; Niall O’ Sullivan
2011-01-01
This paper contributes to the behavioural finance literature that examines the asset pricing impact of mood altering events such as sports results, sunshine levels, daylight hours, public holidays, temperature etc. Specifically, we investigate whether variations in investor mood arising from wins and losses in major sporting events have an impact on stock market returns. We examine the case of Ireland. Ireland is an interesting case because its people are passionate about sport, the domestic ...
Collaborative design of Open Educational Practices: An Assets based approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kate Helen Miller
2018-04-01
Full Text Available This paper outlines a collaborative approach to the design of open educational resources (OER with community stakeholders so they can be shared with other community practitioners openly, online and repurposed for other contexts. We view curriculum not as something that educationalists provide but rather something that emerges as learners engage with an educational context. We draw on a Project consisting of a partnership between five European Institutions of Higher Education and a range of community stakeholder groups. The partnership will develop a suite of OER for community workers who are implementing assets based approaches in different contexts. We argue that these approaches are negotiated in that one cannot decide how they might operate in a given context without engaging in deliberative discussion. The challenge for us as open education practitioners is how to turn those deliberations into OER and to highlight the important pedagogical aspect of the design process.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schutz, S.R.
1978-12-01
An energy source ready for immediate use on a commercial scale is solar energy in the form of On Site Solar Heating (OSSH) systems. These systems collect solar energy with rooftop panels, store excess energy in water storage tanks and can, in certain circumstances, provide 100% of the space heating and hot water required by the occupants of the residential or commercial structure on which the system is located. Such systems would take advantage of a free and inexhaustible energy source--sunlight. The principal drawback of such systems is the high initial capital cost. The solution would normally be a carefully worked out corporate financing plan. However, at the moment it is individual homeowners and not corporations who are attempting to finance these systems. As a result, the terms of finance are excessively stringent and constitute the main obstacle to the large scale market penetration of OSSH. This study analyzes the feasibility of OSSH as a private utility investment. Such systems would be installed and owned by private utilities and would displace other investment projects, principally electric generating plants. The return on OSSH is calculated on the basis of the cost to the consumer of the equivalent amount of electrical energy that is displaced by the OSSH system. The hurdle rate for investment in OSSH is calculated using the Sharpe--Lintner Capital Asset Pricing Model. The results of this study indicate that OSSH is a low risk investment having an appropriate hurdle rate of 7.9%. At this rate, OSSH investment appears marginally acceptable in northern California and unambiguously acceptable in southern California. The results also suggest that utility investment in OSSH should lead to a higher degree of financial leverage for utility companies without a concurrent deterioration in the risk class of utility equity.
Distributor pricing approaches enabled in Smart Grid to differentiate delivery service quality
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhongwei Jake Zhang
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Industry practitioners who advocate retail competition and Demand-side Participation now look for approaches to link both initiatives through distributor pricing. As distributors incrementally convert more traditional assets into Smart Grid assets, they also need to consider different pricing approaches to recover the investment costs and meet the regulatory business requirements. Small electricity consumers need incentives to take part in these initiatives but their delivery service quality should also be closely guarded. Hence this paper addresses the above needs as a whole and investigates a set of distributor pricing approaches with Smart Grid technologies. Pricing of network and non-network based solutions should follow the incremental basis, such as the long run average incremental cost (LRAIC. The benefit of deferring network investment is calculated and should be passed to consumers as peak pricing rebate. A concept of reliability premium (RP based on load point reliability index is proposed, through which customers can express their preference of service quality and adjust their network tariff payment accordingly. A service delivery model is also proposed to utilize the savings from wholesale market trading to compensate for the downgraded service when loads are controlled. The IEEE 123-node distribution test feeder and the IEEE distribution system for RBTS Bus No. 2 are simulated, and solved using General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS to demonstrate the proposed distributor pricing approaches in Smart Grid.
A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation
Thomas J. Flavin; Michael R. Wickens
2001-01-01
This paper extends the tactical asset allocation strategy of Flavin and Wickens(1998) to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic variables in the analysis. Using a VAR in mean with a M-GARCH error structure, we can jointly model financial asset returns and macroeconomic variables, thereby exploiting any predictability in either the first- or second-order moments. Taking a set of UK\\ financial assets and the change in domestic inflation as an illustration, we find a much stronger impact on th...
Transfer Pricing and Intangible Assets in Cross-Border Business Restructurings
Pätäri, Heidi Maria
2012-01-01
Transfer pricing can be described as the internal price setting between multinational group companies. In recent years the issue of jurisdiction’s tax revenue flowing out of the jurisdiction has been closely related with transfer pricing and the tax authorities all over the world have increasingly began to question the arm’s length nature of the intra-group transactions of multinational enterprises. In this thesis the focus is on the transfer pricing issues arising in situations w...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Charles P. Kindleberger
2009-12-01
Full Text Available L’inflazione degli asset, a differenza dell’inflazione ordinaria, che si riferisce a l'aumento dei prezzi dei beni di consumo, merci all'ingrosso, o il deflatore del reddito nazionale, è un termine che non è in uso in occidente, ma corrente in Giappone. Ci sono momenti in cui gli assets aumenteranno di prezzo in modo inflazionistico, un boom o anche una bolla, mentre i prezzi dell’output sono relativamente stabili o addirittura in calo. Asset inflation, as distinguished from ordinary inflation, the latter referring to rising prices of consumer goods, wholesale commodities, or the national-income deflator, is a phrase not in use in the west, but current in Japan. There are times when assets rise in price in an inflationary way, a boom or even a bubble, while output prices are relatively stable or even declining. JEL Codes: F3, G1, N1, B5
A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing
Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas
2011-11-01
The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.
Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.
2002-01-01
Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jacek Lipiec
2014-07-01
Full Text Available In this article, we test the capital asset pricing model (CAPM on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE by measuring the performance of two portfolios composed of construction firms: family-controlled and nonfamily controlled. These portfolios were selected from the WIG-Construction (WIG—Warszawski Indeks Giełdowy—Warsaw Stock Exchange Index. The performance of both portfolios was measured in the period from 2006 to 2012 with respect to three sub-periods: (1 pre-crisis period: 2006–2007; (2 crisis period: 2008–2009; and (3 post-crisis period: 2010–2012. This division was constructed in this way to find out how family firms performed in crisis times in relation to nonfamily firms. In addition, the construction portfolio was chosen due to its sensitivity to recessions. When an economy faces a downturn, construction firms are among the first to be exposed to risk. The performance was measured by using the capital asset pricing model with statistical inference. We find that public family firms significantly outperformed non-family peers in the crisis times.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David C. Ling
2013-08-01
Full Text Available We examine the impact of heterogeneous investors with asymmetric bargaining positions on transaction prices in private commercial real estate markets. Using a dataset that contains nearly 100,000 commercial real estate transactions during 1997-2009, we examine the extent to which common conditions of sale and buyer characteristics affect bargaining power and negotiated prices. We find that tax-motivated buyers seeking to complete a delayed Section 1031 exchange pay an average price premium of 12.5% when purchasing smaller properties. However, these price premiums for exchange motivated buyers are not observed among more expensive properties. We find strong evidence that out-of-state buyers pay significantly more (8 - 11% premium for commercial properties than in-state buyers. Consistent with our expectations, we find that sellers of distressed properties negotiate significantly lower transaction prices (13 - 15% discount than sellers of non-distressed properties, all else equal. Finally, we find evidence that REITs pay price premiums between 14 - 16% for office and industrial and retail properties. Our results strongly support the notion that relative bargaining power influences negotiated transaction prices.
Test Of Capital Asset Pricing Model On Stocks At Karachi Stock Exchange
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Arbab Khalid Cheema
2010-12-01
Full Text Available This paper attempts to empirically test the single-factor CAPM developed by Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Jan Mossin (1966 and others, which proposes that the expected returns of capital assets are dependent on their risk relative to the entire market which is quantified by a correlation co-efficient between asset returns and market returns. The test of 20 stocks at Karachi Stock Exchange have shown that though, the beta co-efficients are significant, their strength is considerably weak. Therefore, other factors which are unaccounted for in this model are important in determining risk and return. In addition, betas are less relevant in a volatile emerging capital markets like the KSE. Thus, the multi-factor models are better than the classical CAPM at determining the risk-return relationship. However, the single-factor CAPM remains in practice beacause of its simplicity.
Asset prices and rents in a GE model with imperfect competition
Pierre Lafourcade
2003-01-01
This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects on asset valuation and capital accumulation of an exogenous drop in the rate of return required by investors in a model of production with imperfectly competitive product markets. The model improves substantially on the standard perfectly competitive neo-classical framework, by dissociating the behavior of marginal and average q. It tracks more closely current observed data on the ratio of stock-market value to the economy's capital base, wh...
Operations Research Approaches to Asset Management in Freight Rail
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gorman, Michael F.; Harrod, Steven
2011-01-01
This article describes operations research methodologies as they apply to asset management in freight rail. We describe state-of-the-art methods for locomotive, crew, railcar, line and yard planning and management. We conclude with emerging areas of research in rail.......This article describes operations research methodologies as they apply to asset management in freight rail. We describe state-of-the-art methods for locomotive, crew, railcar, line and yard planning and management. We conclude with emerging areas of research in rail....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leo Julianto
2015-09-01
Full Text Available For decades, there were many models explaining the returns earned emerged in order to fulfil the curiosity had by human. Since then, various studies and empirical findings in many countries’ stock market showedthat the empirical findings of market return explanation and the return of assets meet the different results in both clarify of model and identification of significant determinant variables.Therefore, many comparative studies between models were accomplished. In this study, the author attempts to do comparative study between two models, APT and CAPM, in Indonesian Capital Market during period 2008 until 2012. Besides, the author also attempts to find how much inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate describe the returns earned in each sector existed in Indonesia Capital Market. As the result, the author find out that CAPM has bigger explanation power than APT in Indonesian Capital Market during period 2008-2012. Besides, the author also found that among macroeconomic factors, there are only two macroeconomic factors that can affect certain samples significantly. They are change in BI rate, which affect AALI, ANTM, ASII, TLKM, UNTR, and change in exchange rate, which affect INDF and TLKM significantly.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1996-03-01
This report presents the proceedings from the EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing. Topics discussed include: power transmission pricing; retail pricing; price risk management; new pricing paradigms; changes from cost-based to a market-based pricing scheme; ancillary services; retail market strategies; profitability; unbundling; and value added services. This is the leading abstract. Papers are processed separately for the databases
A Data Mining Approach to Modelling of Water Supply Assets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Babovic, V.; Drecourt, J.; Keijzer, M.
2002-01-01
supply assets are mainly situated underground, and therefore not visible and under the influence of various highly unpredictable forces. This paper proposes the use of advanced data mining methods in order to determine the risks of pipe bursts. For example, analysis of the database of already occurred...
A stochastic-programming approach to integrated asset and liability ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This increase in complexity has provided an impetus for the investigation into integrated asset- and liability-management frameworks that could realistically address dynamic portfolio allocation in a risk-controlled way. In this paper the authors propose a multi-stage dynamic stochastic-programming model for the integrated ...
Marketing approach to pricing of rail freight
Savitska, G.
2015-01-01
Price the is essence of the economic interests the participants of the transport market, which manifests itself in maintaining or increasing of the main price component revenue. Pricing for transportation of cargoes railway transport in a market economy is the most important management decisions affecting traffic volumes, profitability and competitiveness in the transport market. The market pricing for transportation of cargoes railway transport is a concentrated expression of market conditio...
Equilibrium Asset and Option Pricing under Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xinfeng Ruan
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We study the equity premium and option pricing under jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatility based on the model in Zhang et al. 2012. We obtain the pricing kernel which acts like the physical and risk-neutral densities and the moments in the economy. Moreover, the exact expression of option valuation is derived by the Fourier transformation method. We also discuss the relationship of central moments between the physical measure and the risk-neutral measure. Our numerical results show that our model is more realistic than the previous model.
THE IMPACT OF THE BASIC ASSETS EFFICIENCY ON THE OF CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTS COST PRICE
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M. Z. Zeynalov
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In article are considered problems of the analysis of the influence mode to usages and conditions of the building technology and facilities to mechanizations on prime cost produced building product. It is offered original scheme intercropping the factors, in accordance with influence of the working expenses of the facilities of the lab our on prime cost of the building product. The offered methods of the estimation physical wear-out level of the building technology and competitiveness of the active part of production assets of the building enterprise.
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An Chen
2015-03-01
Full Text Available This paper compares two different types of private retirement plans from the perspective of a representative beneficiary: a defined benefit (DB and a defined contribution (DC plan. While salary risk is the main common risk factor in DB and DC pension plans, one of the key differences is that DB plans carry portability risks, whereas DC plans bear asset price risk. We model these tradeoffs explicitly in this paper and compare these two plans in a utility-based framework. Our numerical analysis focuses on answering the question of when the beneficiary is indifferent between the DB and DC plan. Most of our results confirm the findings in the existing literature, among which, e.g., portability losses considerably reduce the relative attractiveness of the DB plan. However, we also find that the attractiveness of the DB plan can decrease in the level of risk aversion, which is inconsistent with the existing literature.
The quotient of normal random variables and application to asset price fat tails
Caginalp, Carey; Caginalp, Gunduz
2018-06-01
The quotient of random variables with normal distributions is examined and proven to have power law decay, with density f(x) ≃f0x-2, with the coefficient depending on the means and variances of the numerator and denominator and their correlation. We also obtain the conditional probability densities for each of the four quadrants given by the signs of the numerator and denominator for arbitrary correlation ρ ∈ [ - 1 , 1) . For ρ = - 1 we obtain a particularly simple closed form solution for all x ∈ R. The results are applied to a basic issue in economics and finance, namely the density of relative price changes. Classical finance stipulates a normal distribution of relative price changes, though empirical studies suggest a power law at the tail end. By considering the supply and demand in a basic price change model, we prove that the relative price change has density that decays with an x-2 power law. Various parameter limits are established.
A modelling approach for railway overhead line equipment asset management
Kilsby, Paul; Remenyte-Prescott, Rasa; Andrews, John
2017-01-01
The Overhead Line Equipment (OLE) is a critical sub-system of the 25kV AC overhead railway electrification system. If OLE asset management strategies can be evaluated using a whole lifecycle cost analysis that considers degradation processes and maintenance activities of the OLE components, the investment required to deliver the level of performance desired by railway customers and regulators can be based on evidence from the analysis results. A High Level Petri Net (HLPN) model, proposed in ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Hanif
2011-12-01
Full Text Available A speedy emerging area of finance is the Shari’a compliant financial system. In first decade of 21st century Islamic financing has shown tremendous increase and global volume has reached to US $ 1,041 billion by the end of 2009. Being financial intermediaries Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs have shown commendable progress in deposit collection under profit and loss sharing schemes however investment avenues are limited in comparison of conventional banks. Although a large number of financing modes are available to IFIs, yet maintenance of required liquidity is serious issue because money market and capital market is dominated by interest based instruments and conventional practices (some are clearly prohibited by Shari’a. Recently Al-meezan Investment Management Ltd. (AIML has started screening of Shari’a compliant stocks on KSE, and provided an avenue for Shari’a Compliant Investors/IFIs to invest in equities. This study is conducted to understand conventional asset pricing models, document any mismatching with Shari’a financial system, and suggest amendments if required. Findings suggest existing models of equity pricing (CAPM, APT/MFM are very much practicable under Shari’a framework with slight modification of risk free return because under Shari’a frame work risk free returns do not exist.
Integrated approach to transmission services pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, C.W.; David, A.K.
1999-01-01
The paper presents an intuitively logical split between: (a) embedded, (b) operating, and (c) expansion cost based pricing and methodologies for implementation, for transmission services. A conceptually straightforward mechanism for the equitable allocation of transmission network embedded cost recovery based on capacity-use and reliability benefit is proposed, expansion cost is charged on a long-run marginal cost basis and finally, operating cost recovery is based on short-run marginal pricing. This is followed by co-ordinating these alternatives and integrating the pricing mechanisms to achieve appropriate price signals for bulk power users of transmission systems. (author)
Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin
2016-01-01
We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China’s stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank’s policymaking. PMID:27851796
Understanding retail gasoline pricing : An empirical approach
Bruzikas, Tadas
2017-01-01
Retail gasoline markets offer an abundance of price data at the daily and, more recently, hourly level. Firms in this industry use sophisticated price strategies. Moreover, there have been a number of important recent market developments. All this makes retail gasoline a promising industry to study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erol Muzır
2010-09-01
Full Text Available This paper is prepared to test the common opinion that the multifactor asset pricing models produce superior predictions as compared to the single factor models and to evaluate the performance of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. For this purpose, the monthly return data from January 1996 and December 2004 of the stocks of 45 firms listed at Istanbul Stock Exchange were used. Our factor analysis results show that 68,3 % of the return variation can be explained by five factors. Although the APT model has generated a low coefficient of determination, 28,3 %, it proves to be more competent in explaining stock return changes when compared to CAPM which has an inferior explanation power, 5,4 %. Furthermore, we have observed that APT is more robust also in capturing the effects of any economic crisis on return variations.
KARIYA Takeaki
2006-01-01
As Robert Redfield has stated, culture is a shared common knowledge and understanding to be manifested in behavior and processed goods. Intangible assets are the fundamental source of enterprise value creation. In this paper we first aim to clarify the compound, complex and multilayered processes whereby intangible assets contribute to value creation, and then aim to formulate the framework of an effective and comprehensive management process referred to as CERM/ROIAM. This approach makes it ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Helen Higgs
2014-03-01
Full Text Available This paper models the price and income elasticity of retail finance in Australia using aggregate quarterly data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL approach. We particularly focus on the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC from 2007 onwards on retail finance demand and analyse four submarkets (period analysed in brackets: owneroccupied housing loans (Sep 1985–June 2010, term loans (for motor vehicles, household goods and debt consolidation, etc. (Dec 1988–Jun 2010, credit card loans (Mar 1990–Jun 2010, and margin loans (Sep 2000–Jun 2010. Other than the indicator lending rates and annual full-time earnings respectively used as proxies for the price and income effects, we specify a large number of other variables as demand factors, particularly reflecting the value of the asset for which retail finance demand is derived. These variously include the yield on indexed bonds as a proxy for inflation expectations, median housing prices, consumer sentiment indices as measures of consumer confidence, motor vehicle and retail trade sales, housing debt-to-housing assets as a measure of leverage, the proportion of protected margin lending, the available credit limit on credit cards, and the All Ordinaries Index. In the long run, we find significant price elasticities only for term loans and margin loans, and significant income elasticities of demand for housing loans, term loans and margin loans. We also find that the GFC only significantly affected the longrun demand for term loans and margin loans. In the short run, we find that the GFC has had a significant effect on the price elasticity of demand for term loans and margin loans. Expected inflation is also a key factor affecting retail finance demand. Overall, most of the submarkets in the analysis indicate that retail finance demand is certainly price inelastic but more income elastic than conventionally thought.
Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malova, Aleksandra; Ploeg, Frederick van der
2017-01-01
Despite substantial oil and gas revenue Russia's fiscal stance is unsustainable. Under our benchmark assumptions the permanent-income rule requires a permanent tightening of the fiscal stance by 4.6%-points of GDP. Delaying it by a decade implies that the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by a further 0.9%-point. This benchmark optimal policy ensures that depletion of oil and gas wealth is matched by an equal increase in above-ground financial wealth. Its merits are highlighted by comparing it with the tougher alternative of the bird-in-hand rule and with projecting the current fiscal stance. If oil and gas revenue rises by a half due to higher prices or more discoveries, the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by only 3.2%-points of GDP. However, if a large chunk of oil and gas has to be kept in the soil to meet international agreements to keep global warming below 2 °C, the permanent transfer drops to 2.0% of GDP and the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by 5.5%-points of GDP. - Highlights: • Sustained lower oil prices mean that Russia has to tighten its fiscal stance by 4.6%-points of GDP. • If oil & gas revenue rise by half, the fiscal stance only needs to be tightened by 3.2%-points of GDP. • Delaying by a decade means that the fiscal stance has to be tightened by a further 0.9%-points of GDP. • If Russia commits to Paris COP21, a large chunk of reserves cannot be burnt. • The fiscal stance then needs to be tightened by 5.5%-points of GDP.
State officials and illicit asset-grabbing: The Roman approach
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Apsitis A.
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The article reflects author’s findings regarding the regulation found in Roman legal sources, which is directed against corruptive activities of persons in public state positions, in particular in relation to unlawful seizure of assets belonging to citizens. Legal mechanisms are examined in relation to cases of force (vis-Latin and fear (metus-Latin application. The Code of Justinian (Codex Iustinianus and The Digest (Digesta contained regulation in relation to interpretation and application of The Julian Law on Extortion (Lex Iulia repetundarum, 59 B.C. in cases of all types of extortion and bribery with the involvement of public office administering persons, including judges and arbitrators, are examined.
A Statistical Approach for Interval Forecasting of the Electricity Price
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhao, Jun Hua; Dong, Zhao Yang; Xu, Zhao
2008-01-01
the prediction interval is essential for estimating the uncertainty involved in the price and thus is highly useful for making generation bidding strategies and investment decisions. In this paper, a novel data mining-based approach is proposed to achieve two major objectives: 1) to accurately forecast the value......Electricity price forecasting is a difficult yet essential task for market participants in a deregulated electricity market. Rather than forecasting the value, market participants are sometimes more interested in forecasting the prediction interval of the electricity price. Forecasting...... of the electricity price series, which is widely accepted as a nonlinear time series; 2) to accurately estimate the prediction interval of the electricity price series. In the proposed approach, support vector machine (SVM) is employed to forecast the value of the price. To forecast the prediction interval, we...
Two-faced property of a market factor in asset pricing and diversification effect
Eom, Cheoljun
2017-04-01
This study empirically investigates the test hypothesis that a market factor acting as a representative common factor in the pricing models has a negative influence on constructing a well-diversified portfolio from the Markowitz mean-variance optimization function (MVOF). We use the comparative correlation matrix (C-CM) method to control a single eigenvalue among all eigenvalues included in the sample correlation matrix (S-CM), through the random matrix theory (RMT). In particular, this study observes the effect of the largest eigenvalue that has the property of the market factor. According to the results, the largest eigenvalue has the highest explanatory power on the stock return changes. The C-CM without the largest eigenvalue in the S-CM constructs a more diversified portfolio capable of improving the practical applicability of the MVOF. Moreover, the more diversified portfolio constructed from this C-CM has better out-of-sample performance in the future period. These results support the test hypothesis for the two-faced property of the market factor, defined by the largest eigenvalue.
Uranium prices approaching a 7 year high
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1996-01-01
This paper provides a market overview of the uranium market. The spot market activity totaled approximately 1.1 million lbs of U3O8 and equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range jumped from a high last month of $12.25 to a low this month of $12.45 There was a more moderate increase in the unrestricted range with this month's low end rising to last month's high of $10.15. Conversion prices remained steady and the lower end of the SWU range rose slightly to $92
TRANSFER PRICES: MECHANISMS, METHODS AND INTERNATIONAL APPROACHES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pop Cosmina
2008-05-01
Full Text Available Transfer prices are considered the prices paid for the goods or services in a cross-border transaction between affiliates companies, often significant reduced or increased in order to avoid the higher imposing rates from one jurisdiction. Presently, over 60% of cross-border transfers are represented by intra-group transfers. The paper presents the variety of methods and mechanisms used by the companies to transfer the funds from one tax jurisdiction to another in order to avoid over taxation.
Estimation of mean-reverting oil prices: a laboratory approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bjerksund, P.; Stensland, G.
1993-12-01
Many economic decision support tools developed for the oil industry are based on the future oil price dynamics being represented by some specified stochastic process. To meet the demand for necessary data, much effort is allocated to parameter estimation based on historical oil price time series. The approach in this paper is to implement a complex future oil market model, and to condense the information from the model to parameter estimates for the future oil price. In particular, we use the Lensberg and Rasmussen stochastic dynamic oil market model to generate a large set of possible future oil price paths. Given the hypothesis that the future oil price is generated by a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we obtain parameter estimates by a maximum likelihood procedure. We find a substantial degree of mean-reversion in the future oil price, which in some of our decision examples leads to an almost negligible value of flexibility. 12 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs
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Meelis Angerma
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Developments in the real world depends on human reaction to economic events which is also determined by dominating economic thought. Dominance of neoliberal and monetarist thinking was the main cause of ignoring asset price bubbles and their effects on real economy. New keynesian economic thinking provides an alternative. Hyman Minsky’s model of financial instability was more effectively able to explain super-bubbles in US economy and subsequent ‚Great Recession’. Ignorance of momentum-bias of traders and banks contributed to this crises. Emerging markets and Baltic countries were strongly influenced by credit oversupply in US. Instabilities were so sizeable that IMF approved using capital control and proposal for tax on financial transactions was made. Policymakers and individuals should abandon ignorance of speculative asset price bubbles and improve their analytical skills to recognize bubbles and change their behaviour
Susanti, Ariska Yuli
2014-01-01
This research aims to classify efficient stocks and inefficient stock using the Capital Asset Pricing Model approach (CAPM), it really helps the investors to make the right investment decisions. The object of research is done in the manufacturing sector shares which are listed in the Stock Exchange 2009-2012 . Based on the research result and the analysis that have been done, it can be seen that from the 11 manufacturing company shares which are used as the research sample, there are two comp...
VALUE-BASED APPROACH TO MANAGING CURRENT ASSETS OF CORPORATE CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Galyna Shapoval
2017-09-01
Full Text Available In modern conditions of management, the value of an enterprise becomes the main indicator, which is learned not only by scientists, but also by owners of enterprise and potential investors. Current assets take a very important place among the factors that affect the value of an enterprise, so management of current assets becomes more acute from the point of their impact on enterprise value. The purpose of the paper is to develop a system of value-based management of corporate construction companies’ current assets. The main tasks are: the study of current assets impact on the value of corporate construction companies, the definition of value-based approach to managing current assets of corporate enterprises and development of value-based management system of corporate construction companies’ current assets by elements. General scientific and special research methods were used while writing the work. Value-based management of current assets involves value-based management of the elements of current assets. The value-based inventory management includes the following stages of management: the assessment of reliability and choice of supplier according to the criterion of cash flow maximization, the classification of stocks in management accounting according to the rhythm of supply and the establishment of periodicity of supplies in accordance with the needs of the construction process. The value-based management of accounts receivable includes the following stages of management: assessment of the efficiency of investment of working capital into accounts receivable, the assessment of customers' loyalty and the definition of credit conditions and monitoring of receivables by construction and debt instruments. Value-based cash management involves determining the required level of cash to ensure the continuity of the construction process, assessing the effectiveness of cash use according to the criterion of maximizing cash flow, as well as budget
Grøm, Halvdan Alexander
2013-01-01
In this thesis I have analysed the relationship between renewable energy stocks and the price of crude oil. As a part of my analysis I have provided a basic economic overview of the research period and how the value of renewable energy stocks and crude oil is determined. In order to analyse this relationship I have utilized a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) in addition to a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). My findings indicate that the aforementioned assets follow a simi...
Heterodox surplus approach: production, prices, and value theory
Lee, Frederic
2011-01-01
In this paper I argue that that there is a heterodox social surplus approach that has its own account of output-employment and prices, and its own value theory which draws upon various heterodox traditions. Starting with the Sraffian technical definition of the social surplus and then working with a Sraffa-Leontief input-output framework, the particular distinguishing feature of the heterodox approach is the role of agency in determining prices, the social surplus, and total social product a...
Drescher, Christopher F.; Johnson, Laura R.; Kurz, A. Solomon; Scales, Peter C.; Kiliho, Ray P.
2018-01-01
Background: Assets-based approaches are well-suited to youth living in majority world contexts, such as East Africa. However, positive psychology research with African adolescents is rare. One hindering factor is the lack of translated measures for conducting research. Objective: This study builds capacity for positive youth development research…
2012-08-30
... Discipline and Disclosure Requirements; Proposed Rule #0;#0;Federal Register / Vol. 77 , No. 169 / Thursday... Assets; Market Discipline and Disclosure Requirements AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency... Approach NPR) includes proposed changes to the agencies' general risk-based capital requirements for...
Value focused thinking : An approach to structure company values for asset risk management
Van der Lei, T.E.; Ligtvoet, A.
2012-01-01
For public and semi public organizations the use of risk assessment matrices is becoming a standard approach for asset management decisions. The risk matrix allows companies to assess the chance and effects of different risks with respect to proposed investment decisions. When the values in the risk
Elvira, Nasika
2014-01-01
The objective of research is to explain the analysis against the performance of stocks of the companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange based on their return and risk, and to explain the analysis of the determination of efficient stock group based on Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) over the stocks of the companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for portfolio establishment in period 2010-2012. The USAge of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in this research is that CAPM method can ex...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael
2005-01-01
Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)
Investment-based Capital Asset Pricing Model からみた投資と資産収益率
宮川, 努; 滝澤, 美帆
2017-01-01
本稿は，資産収益率の要因を，投資変動を使って説明するInvestment-based Capital Asset Pricing Model（I-CAPM）を使って，日米の投資規模と資産収益率の関係及び無形資産規模の影響を考察した。I-CAPM によれば，投資規模が大きくなると投資に付帯する費用によって資産収益率が低下するが，単純に投資規模別に分けた資産収益率を調べると，日米ともにI-CAPM の妥当性が検証される。しかしFama and French（1995）によるThree Factor Model など他の要因も加えると，日本では投資規模が明示的に資産収益率に影響を与える効果は検出できなかった。しかし米国では無形資産規模が大きい場合，I-CAPM の妥当性が成立することがわかる。また有形資産投資に無形資産投資を加えると収益率格差が縮小する現象も見られた。このことは，有形資産投資に伴う費用を無形資産投資が一部代替している可能性を示している，日本が今後IT 化を進める際にはハード面の投資だけでなく，無形資産投資も合わせて実施することで，付帯費用に伴う収益率低下を防ぐ必要がある...
A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets
Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako
An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.
The Multi-Frequency Correlation Between Eua and sCER Futures Prices: Evidence from the Emd Approach
Zhang, Yue-Jun; Huang, Yi-Song
2015-05-01
Currently European Union Allowances (EUA) and secondary Certified Emission Reduction (sCER) have become two dominant carbon trading assets for investors and their linkage attracts much attention from academia and practitioners in recent years. Under this circumstance, we use the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach to decompose the two carbon futures contract prices and discuss their correlation from the multi-frequency perspective. The empirical results indicate that, first, the EUA and sCER futures price movements can be divided into those triggered by the long-term, medium-term and short-term market impacts. Second, the price movements in the EUA and sCER futures markets are primarily caused by the long-term impact, while the short-term impact can only explain a small fraction. Finally, the long-term (short-term) effect on EUA prices is statistically uncorrelated with the short-term (long-term) effect of sCER prices, and there is a medium or strong lead-and-lag correlation between the EUA and sCER price components with the same time scales. These results may provide some important insights of price forecast and arbitraging activities for carbon futures market investors, analysts and regulators.
Saputra, Wildan Deny
2015-01-01
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is method that used to make an estimate of the expected returns of an investment. CAPM explain about relation between expected returns and risk of shares. The research is descriptive research with the quantitative analysis which aims to know the performance of shares listed in the index kompas100 2010-2013 period based on the return and the risk of shares and know of efficient shares and inefficient shares based on CAPM method. Sample of the research are 37 ...
Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.
2017-12-01
Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tjin, T.; Buitelaar, T.
2000-02-01
July 1999 The Netherlands Electricity Regulatory Service (DtE) published an Information and Consultation Document on the subject of 'Price Cap Regulation in the Dutch Electricity Sector'. By means of price cap regulation tariffs are determined such that businesses are stimulated continuously to organize their total processes and operation as efficient as possible. In the consultation document a large number of questions with respect to the future organization and planning of the system of economic regulation of the electricity sector in the Netherlands can be found. Many reactions and answers were received, compiled and analyzed. The results are presented in the main report, which forms the framework for the DtE to shape the economic regulation of the Dutch electricity sector. In this background document attention is paid to a method to determine the Regulatory Asset Base (RAB)
Multiple stakeholders in road pricing: A game theoretic approach
Ohazulike, Anthony; Still, Georg J.; Kern, Walter; van Berkum, Eric C.; Hausken, Kjell; Zhuang, Jun
2015-01-01
We investigate a game theoretic approach as an alternative to the standard multi-objective optimization models for road pricing. Assuming that various, partly conflicting traffic externalities (congestion, air pollution, noise, safety, etcetera) are represented by corresponding players acting on a
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gulnara REJEPOVA
2007-01-01
Full Text Available This article attempts to test the validity of CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model in Turkey by regressing the weekly risk premiums (rj - rf against the beta coefficients of 20 portfolios, each including 10 stocks, over the period of 1995-2004.ISE 100 index and US T-Bill rate, adjusted for the difference between Turkish and US inflation rates were used as the proxies to the market portfolio, and the risk-free rate respectively. Following an in-depth literature survey, Fama and MacBeth (1973, and Pettengil et. al. (1995 approaches were selected as two alternative methods to be used in the research. Research findings based on Fama&MacBeth approach indicated no meaningful relationship between beta coefficients and ex-post risk premiums of the selected portfolios. With Pettengill et al. methodology, on the other hand, strong beta-risk premium relationships were discovered.
A Stochastic Flows Approach for Asset Allocation with Hidden Economic Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tak Kuen Siu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available An optimal asset allocation problem for a quite general class of utility functions is discussed in a simple two-state Markovian regime-switching model, where the appreciation rate of a risky share changes over time according to the state of a hidden economy. As usual, standard filtering theory is used to transform a financial model with hidden information into one with complete information, where a martingale approach is applied to discuss the optimal asset allocation problem. Using a martingale representation coupled with stochastic flows of diffeomorphisms for the filtering equation, the integrand in the martingale representation is identified which gives rise to an optimal portfolio strategy under some differentiability conditions.
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Francis M HUTABARAT
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The industry in Indonesia is an interesting business to capitalize. In Indonesia many companies were established since it is profitable. The capital market serves as an economic pillar in most countries. Indonesia is a rich country, rich in many ways especially in natural resources. However, the industry has its ups and downs in the stock market. It is interesting to see the performance of the companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study aimed to measure and analyze companies listed in Pefindo25 at Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model. The sample used is 25 companies listed at Pefindo25 index. Based on the results of the study, it can conclude that after analyzing the companies listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model that based on Beta analysis, the companies have the type of stocks that are aggressive and defensive. With positive and negative return. The company with aggressive beta shows that the company tend to face higher risk, as JPFA find itself with positif return 15.47% expected return. And companies with defensive type of stocks tend to have positive return such as: FISH, STTP, AISA, APLN, and others since they are not sensitive to market changes. It is recommended for further research to look on this CAPM method in analyzing the stock investment.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1990-11-01
The IAEA Assessment of Safety Significant Events Team (ASSET) Service provides advice and assistance to Member States to enhance the overall level of plant safety while dealing with the policy of prevention of incidents at nuclear power plants. The ASSET programme, initiated in 1986, is not restricted to any particular group of Member States, whether developing or industrialized, but is available to all countries with nuclear power plants in operation or approaching commercial operation. The IAEA Safety Series publications form common basis for the ASSET reviews, including the Nuclear Safety Standards (NUSS) and the Basic Safety Principles (Recommendations of Safety Series No. 75-INSAG-3). The ASSET Guidelines provide overall guidance for the experts to ensure the consistency and comprehensiveness of their review of incident investigations. Additional guidance and reference material is provided by the IAEA to complement the expertise of the ASSET members. ASSET reviews accept different approaches that contribute to ensuring an effective prevention of incidents at plants. Suggestions are offered to enhance plant safety performance. Commendable good practices are identified and generic lessons are communicated to other plants, where relevant, for long term improvement
Asymptotic approach to the pricing of geometric asian options under the CEV model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Min-Ku
2016-01-01
This paper studies the pricing of Asian options whose payoffs depend on the average value of an underlying asset during the period to a maturity. Since the Asian option is not so sensitive to the value of underlying asset, the possibility of manipulation is relatively small than the other options such as European vanilla and barrier options. We derive the pricing formula of geometric Asian options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model that is one of local volatility models, and investigate the implication of the CEV model for geometric Asian options.
Asset Return Dynamics and Learning
William A. Branch; George W. Evans
2010-01-01
This article advocates a theory of expectation formation that incorporates many of the central motivations of behavioral finance theory while retaining much of the discipline of the rational expectations approach. We provide a framework in which agents, in an asset pricing model, underparameterize their forecasting model in a spirit similar to Hong, Stein, and Yu (2007) and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998), except that the parameters of the forecasting model and the choice of predictor a...
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Theophil Assey
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Information systems are developed based on different requirements and different technologies. Integration of these systems is of vital importance as they cannot work in isolation, they need to share and exchange data with other information systems. The Information Systems handle data of different types and formats’, finding a way to make them communicate is important as they need to exchange data during transactions, communication and different aspects which may require their interactions. In Tanzanian Local Government Authorities (LGAs, fixed asset data are not centralized, individual Local Government Authority stores their own data in isolation yet accountability is required through the provision of centralized storage for easy data access and easier data integration with other Information Systems in order to enhance fixed asset accountability. The study was carried out through reviewing of literature on the existing Information System integration approaches in order to identify and propose the best approach to be used in fixed asset management systems in LGA’s in Tanzania. The different approaches which are used for systems integration such as Service Oriented Architecture (SOA, Common Object Request Broker (CORBA, Common Object Model (COM and eXtensible Markup Language (XML were evaluated under the factors considered at the LGA. The XML was preferred over SOA, CORBA and COM because of some challenges in governance, data security, availability of expertise for support, maintenance, implementation cost, performance, compliance with government changing policies and service reliability. The proposed approach integrates data for all the Local Government Authorities at a centralized location and middleware transforms the centralized data into XML so it can easily be used by other Information Systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dionigi Gerace
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Despite the capital asset pricing model being one of the most inﬂuential mod¬els in modern portfolio theory, it has also been a victim of criticism in numerous academic papers. Its assumptions which seem to be rather unre¬alistic, have caused many academics to improve the model by relaxing some of its restrictive statements. In this journal article, we compare the performance of an optimal portfolio of securities in the Australian securities market by constructing two theoretical portfolios; one using the capital asset pricing model which uses a single beta throughout a static investment horizon; and another, which allows the op¬timal portfolio to be rebalanced each week with an adjusted beta. The performance of the two theoretical portfolios is compared to determine the superior model. Overall, findings showed that due to rebalancing of the portfolio, the multiple period model was the superior model based on before and after transaction cost returns.
Modelling asset correlations during the recent financial crisis: A semiparametric approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Aslanidis, Nektarios; Casas, Isabel
This article proposes alternatives to the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model to study assets' correlations during the recent financial crisis. In particular, we adopt a semiparametric and nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional correlations for two interesting portfolios....... The first portfolio consists of equity sectors SPDRs and the S&P 500 composite, while the second one contains major currencies that are actively traded in the foreign exchange market. Methodologically, our contribution is two fold. First, we propose the Local Linear (LL) estimator for the correlations...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Østergaard, Jacob; Jensen, A. Norsk
2001-01-01
Asset management is emerging as a new approach on how to exploit an electric utility physical asset in the most profitable way. One of the major questions to answer by the asset management staff is when to do replacements? This is a difficult question, which require weighting of several parameter...... on Windows CE handheld computers which are presented in this paper. The calculations shown in the paper are based on this tool, and the software system is today available and used by Danish electric utilities....
Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Assets Management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garleanu, Nicolae; Heje Pedersen, Lasse
We consider a model where investors can invest directly or search for an asset manager, information about assets is costly, and managers charge an endogenous fee. The efficiency of asset prices is linked to the efficiency of the asset management market: if investors can find managers more easily......, more money is allocated to active management, fees are lower, and asset prices are more efficient. Informed managers outperform after fees, uninformed managers underperform after fees, and the net performance of the average manager depends on the number of "noise allocators." Finally, we show why large...
Implementing and certifying a state of the art asset management approach - practical experiences
Slootweg, J.G.; Clemens, G.J.M.B.
2007-01-01
Subject of the paper is the implementation of the Asset Management concept into the organization of Essent Netwerk First, the drivers for and essentials of the Asset Management concept are introduced. Then, the organization of Essent Netwerk’s Asset Management department is described. Finally, the
Development of methodological approaches to the accounting of ownership of land assets in Ukraine
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T.P. Ostapchuk
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Accounting and legal display of land resources is very important in modern society as the land assets are of great value both for the state as a whole and for each landowner and land user. That’s why they must have a proper legal framework and a quite informative method of accounting. In practice the subjects of land relations have many questions and certain inconsistencies in existing legal documents. In addition, there is a mismatch of the current regulatory framework to the rules of accounting. Today, accounting law has no documents that would specifically be related to land resources, as the objects of accounting, and the rights to them. The article specifies the list of objects of accounting associated with the full ownership on land and other property rights on them. The author improves the methodical approaches to accounting display operations with land assets depending on the power of land owner, based on existing regulations and take into account the experience of other countries.
Influence of Price and Quality to Customer Satisfaction: Neuromarketing Approach
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Aurimas Dapkevičius
2011-04-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to analyze literature and find out empirical evidence on product price and quality influence on customer satisfaction through neuromarketing approach. Customers’ satisfaction on their purchase is a significant factor that leads business to success. In recent times, customer satisfaction has gained new attention within the context of the paradigm shift from transactional marketing to relationship marketing. Even it is agreed in the literature that price and quality has high effect on customer satisfaction; still there is little empirical evidence exploring this relation. Almost nothing is known about the human neural mechanisms through which it affects the decisions made by individuals. So, in this article there are reviewed two neuromarketing study cases as neuromarketing provides qualitatively different information, ostensibly better quality comparing to that obtained by traditional methods. The whole article reveals that price and quality is an important factor for customer satisfaction which leads to marketing managers’ decisions complexity nowadays as markets are becoming more and more complex and overloaded.Article in English
Shimizu, Chihiro
2014-01-01
How exactly should one estimate property investment returns? Investors in property aim to maximize capital gains from price increases and income generated by the property. How are the returns on investment in property determined based on its characteristics, and what kind of market characteristics does it have? Focusing on the Tokyo commercial property market and residential property market, the purpose of this paper was to break down and measure the micro-structure of property investment ret...
Measuring inflation under rationing: A virtual price approach
Christophe Starzec; François Gardes
2014-01-01
URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/cesdp2014.html; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2014.01 - ISSN : 1955-611X; The presence of rationing or more generally of the situations of constrained demand can make the traditional methods of measuring inflation questionable and give an erroneous image of the reality. In this paper, we use the virtual price approach (Neary, Roberts, 1980) to estimate the real inflation level in a centrally planned econ...
The 5C model: A new approach to asset integrity management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahim, Yousif; Refsdal, Ingbjorn; Kenett, Ron S.
2010-01-01
As organizations grow more complex in operation and more global in scope, assets and technical integrity become key success factors. A company's asset integrity business process needs to be mapped in order to 1) provide a proper overview of operation and business processes, 2) identify all critical interfaces and 3) ensure that all gaps and overlaps in processes are eliminated. Achieving asset integrity requires companies to sustain their activities and identify the hazards, weaknesses and objectives of their strategic assets. Technical integrity emphasizes a complete overview of technical conditions and related information, and the ability of the companies to document the technical state of its assets. It is based on an integrated view of the current state of operations, and the identification of all critical interfaces, in order to ensure that all gaps and unnecessary overlaps in processes are eliminated. Companies look increasingly at their asset integrity management system as a means to extend the life of their assets, beyond the original design conditions and production capacity. Establishing an asset integrity management system requires the documentation of the company's technical integrity management, a strategy and the processes for carrying it out, identifying gaps; selecting corrective interventions and conducting follow up actions. The paper discusses various aspects of asset integrity management, including its planning and implementation. We begin with an introduction to asset technical integrity, provide some theoretical backgrounds, present a model we call 5C and conclude with a summary and discussion.
A boundary PDE feedback control approach for the stabilization of mortgage price dynamics
Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Sarno, D.
2017-11-01
Several transactions taking place in financial markets are dependent on the pricing of mortgages (loans for the purchase of residences, land or farms). In this article, a method for stabilization of mortgage price dynamics is developed. It is considered that mortgage prices follow a PDE model which is equivalent to a multi-asset Black-Scholes PDE. Actually it is a diffusion process evolving in a 2D assets space, where the first asset is the house price and the second asset is the interest rate. By applying semi-discretization and a finite differences scheme this multi-asset PDE is transformed into a state-space model consisting of ordinary nonlinear differential equations. For the local subsystems, into which the mortgage PDE is decomposed, it becomes possible to apply boundary-based feedback control. The controller design proceeds by showing that the state-space model of the mortgage price PDE stands for a differentially flat system. Next, for each subsystem which is related to a nonlinear ODE, a virtual control input is computed, that can invert the subsystem's dynamics and can eliminate the subsystem's tracking error. From the last row of the state-space description, the control input (boundary condition) that is actually applied to the multi-factor mortgage price PDE system is found. This control input contains recursively all virtual control inputs which were computed for the individual ODE subsystems associated with the previous rows of the state-space equation. Thus, by tracing the rows of the state-space model backwards, at each iteration of the control algorithm, one can finally obtain the control input that should be applied to the mortgage price PDE system so as to assure that all its state variables will converge to the desirable setpoints. By showing the feasibility of such a control method it is also proven that through selected modification of the PDE boundary conditions the price of the mortgage can be made to converge and stabilize at specific
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vojinovič Borut
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Though the paper focuses on pricing, as the background I provide some evidence about loan flows across markets in the form of borrowers’ and lenders’ propensity to issue outside their natural home market. The data show that borrowers stay home when they can and that they tend to issue in Europe when they must issue abroad. That is, borrowers domiciled in one of the major markets (Europe, U.S., and Asia almost always issue in that market, whereas borrowers in more remote locations usually issue in the European market. For example, borrowers from Latin America are overwhelmingly issuing in Europe rather than in the U.S. market.
Asset protection: why a preventive approach is the best insurance against liability.
Rinaldi, Ellen; Shin, Alisa
2008-02-01
Asset-protection planning is critical for people in high-risk professions, such as dentistry. Planning requires a careful weighing of risks, such as the risk of a lawsuit versus that of relinquishing control of assets. The authors examine several lawful techniques that may protect a dentist's assets from claims of future creditors. Asset-protection planning, if done early and with the guidance of an attorney well-versed in the subject, can help deter creditors from claims resulting from malpractice suits, divorce, business partner disputes, bad investments, poor tax planning or a combination of these. Practice Implications. Careful planning can minimize the risk to a dentist's personal assets and the assets of the practice resulting from a lawsuit or other liabilities.
Paul D. McNelis
1993-01-01
This paper is a data-analytic study of the relationships among international asset price volatilities and the time-varying correlations of asset returns in a small open economy (Australia) with international asset returns. Making use of recent developments in time-series approaches to volatility estimation, impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and Kalman filtering, I show that the Australian stock market volatility is most closely linked with volatility in the UK stock market, ...
A bit risky? A comparison between Bitcoin and other assets using an intraday Value at Risk approach
Valstad, Ole Christian Andreas; Vagstad, Kristian
2014-01-01
The promising cryptocurrency Bitcoin has attracted a lot of attention recently, but the high volatility of the Bitcoin price has so far been a barrier to widespread adoption. Given the way Bitcoin transactions work, users will be exposed to exchange rate risk even for short intraday horizons. This paper analyzes this risk, and compares it to more traditional assets, namely Gold and the Euro/USD exchange rate. To do this we make use of the recent literature on market risk measures for ultra-hi...
Retail fuel price adjustment in Germany: A threshold cointegration approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel; Schneider, Jan
2015-01-01
Consumers in Germany often complain that retail fuel prices usually adjust quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases and characterize this pricing pattern as market power exploitation. In this paper, we use both weekly national and daily city-specific (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne) data to investigate the extent to which retail fuel prices in Germany adjust to changes in the international crude oil price. At the national level with weekly prices, we find positive asymmetries for both gasoline and diesel within the period 2003–2007, reflecting that retail prices react more swiftly to crude oil price increases than decreases. In contrast, for 2009–2013, we observe symmetric adjustment and negative asymmetry for retail diesel and gasoline prices, respectively. The city level analysis supports our findings in the latter time period. Thus, regulatory measures aimed at the retail fuel market over recent years seem to have been effective, and, contrary to consumers' perception, we find no evidence for excessive market power or collusion. - Highlights: • The paper examines the adjustment of German retail fuel (gasoline and diesel) prices to international crude oil price changes. • An error correction model with threshold cointegration is used to investigate the price dynamics. • The findings generally point to a competitive retail fuel pricing, notwithstanding the oligopolistic market structure
Electricity price and tariff problems and approaches to their solving
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Piha, M.
1994-01-01
The following problems are discussed: (i) integrity of the tariff system, price setting and price control in relation to the secondary market; (ii) long-term contracting relations between the subjects - primary and secondary market entities; (iii) the setting of electricity purchase prices from independent producers; (iv) international integration of national systems, including electricity import prices; (v) cross-subsidies within the system; (vi) identification of adverse environmental impacts and their remediation by incorporating the associated costs into electricity prices; (vii) the cost basis of prices; (viii) objectivization of the cost basis; (ix) unification/diversification of the price and tariff levels and the associated distribution rent problem; (x) rational structure of the tariff system with respect to its complexity and ties to the measuring and control instrumentation and their efficiency; and (xi) breakdown of the costs of heat and electricity cogeneration and a fair price setting. (J.B.)
Symmetric or asymmetric oil prices? A meta-analysis approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perdiguero-García, Jordi
2013-01-01
The analysis of price asymmetries in the gasoline market is one of the most widely studied in energy economics. However, the great variation in the outcomes reported makes the drawing of any definitive conclusions difficult. Given this situation, a meta-analysis serves as an excellent tool to discover which characteristics of the various markets analyzed, and which specific features of these studies, might account for these differences. In adopting such an approach, this paper shows how the particular segment of the industry analyzed, the characteristics of the data, the years under review, the type of publication and the introduction of control variables might explain this heterogeneity in results. The paper concludes on these grounds that increased competition may significantly reduce the possibility of occurrence of asymmetric behavior. These results should be taken into consideration therefore in future studies of asymmetries in the oil industry. - Highlights: ► I study asymmetries in the price gasoline industry through a meta-analysis regression. ► The asymmetries are produced mainly in the retail market. ► The asymmetries are less frequent when we analyze recent cases. ► There may be some degree of publication bias. ► The level of competition may explain the patterns of asymmetry
An online learning approach to dynamic pricing for demand response
Jia, Liyan; Tong, Lang; Zhao, Qing
2014-01-01
In this paper, the problem of optimal dynamic pricing for retail electricity with an unknown demand model is considered. Under the day-ahead dynamic pricing (a.k.a. real time pricing) mechanism, a retailer obtains electricity in a twosettlement wholesale market and serves its customers in real time. Without knowledge on the aggregated demand function of its customers, the retailer aims to maximize its retail surplus by sequentially adjusting its price based on the behavior of its customers in...
Second-Degree Price Discrimination: A Graphical and Mathematical Approach
Gotlibovski, Chemi; Kahana, Nava
2009-01-01
The authors use a relatively simple diagram accompanied by mathematical analysis to compare two pricing strategies: price-quantity packages and a two-part tariff. This is done both from the monopolist's point of view and from the welfare point of view. The authors show that in the case of two consumer types, the price-quantity packages strategy…
Pricing and hedging of arithmetic Asian options via the Edgeworth series expansion approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weiping Li
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for arithmetic Asian options by using the Edgeworth series expansion. Our pricing formula consists of a Black-Scholes-Merton type formula and a finite sum with the estimation of the remainder term. Moreover, we present explicitly a method to compute each term in our pricing formula. The hedging formulas (greek letters for the arithmetic Asian options are obtained as well. Our formulas for the long lasting question on pricing and hedging arithmetic Asian options are easy to implement with enough accuracy. Our numerical illustration shows that the arithmetic Asian options worths less than the European options under the standard Black-Scholes assumptions, verifies theoretically that the volatility of the arithmetic average is less than the one of the underlying assets, and also discovers an interesting phenomena that the arithmetic Asian option for large fixed strikes such as stocks has higher volatility (elasticity than the plain European option. However, the elasticity of the arithmetic Asian options for small fixed strikes as trading in currencies and commodity products is much less than the elasticity of the plain European option. These findings are consistent with the ones from the hedgings with respect to the time to expiration, the strike, the present underlying asset price, the interest rate and the volatility.
Stephanie A. Snyder; Michael A. Kilgore; Rachel Hudson; Jacob Donnay
2008-01-01
A hedonic model was developed to analyze the market for undeveloped forest land in Minnesota. Variables describing in situ conditions, locational characteristics, buyer perceptions and intentions, and transactional terms were tested for their influence on sale price. The independent variables explained 67% of the per hectare sale price variation. Water frontage, road...
A Risk-Based Approach for Asset Allocation with A Defaultable Share
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Shen
2018-02-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a novel risk-based approach for an optimal asset allocation problem with default risk, where a money market account, an ordinary share and a defaultable security are investment opportunities in a general non-Markovian economy incorporating random market parameters. The objective of an investor is to select an optimal mix of these securities such that a risk metric of an investment portfolio is minimized. By adopting a sub-additive convex risk measure, which takes into account interest rate risk, as a measure for risk, the investment problem is discussed mathematically in a form of a two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential game between the investor and the market. A backward stochastic differential equation approach is used to provide a flexible and theoretically sound way to solve the game problem. Closed-form expressions for the optimal strategies of the investor and the market are obtained when the penalty function is a quadratic function and when the risk measure is a sub-additive coherent risk measure. An important case of the general non-Markovian model, namely the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with time delay, is considered. Numerical examples based on simulations for the self-exciting threshold diffusion model with and without time delay are provided to illustrate how the proposed model can be applied in this important case. The proposed model can be implemented using Excel spreadsheets.
Reasons to value the health care intangible asset valuation.
Reilly, Robert F
2012-01-01
There are numerous individual reasons to conduct a health care intangible asset valuation. This discussion summarized many of these reasons and considered the common categories of these individual reasons. Understanding the reason for the intangible asset analysis is an important prerequisite to conducting the valuation, both for the analyst and the health care owner/operator. This is because an intangible asset valuation may not be the type of analysis that the owner/operator really needs. Rather, the owner/operator may really need an economic damages measurement, a license royalty rate analysis, an intercompany transfer price study, a commercialization potential evaluation, or some other type of intangible asset analysis. In addition, a clear definition of the reason for the valuation will allow the analyst to understand if (1) any specific analytical guidelines, procedures, or regulations apply and (2) any specific reporting requirement applies. For example, intangible asset valuations prepared for fair value accounting purposes should meet specific ASC 820 fair value accounting guidance. Intangible asset valuations performed for intercompany transfer price tax purposes should comply with the guidance provided in the Section 482 regulations. Likewise, intangible asset valuations prepared for Section 170 charitable contribution purposes should comply with specific reporting requirements. The individual reasons for the health care intangible asset valuation may influence the standard of value applied, the valuation date selected, the valuation approaches and methods applied, the form and format of valuation report prepared, and even the type of professional employed to perform the valuation.
AN APPROACH ON LINKS BETWEEN TRANSFER PRICING AND TAX HAVENS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ANDREEA LAVINIA CAZACU (NEAMŢU
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Transfer pricing are the prices at which a company transfers physical goods and intangible property or provides services to affiliated companies. Transfer pricing mechanism is the most frequently used instrument for the transfer of the tax base from countries with high tax to low tax countries. In the context of transfer pricing, all transactions should be made only respecting the principle of market value (Arm’s length principle. Under current conditions, we can say that globalization influences the transfer pricing, because it makes possible to transfer profits from one country to another, by removing state barriers. The expression "transfer pricing" is used as shorthand for multinational corporations to store profits in tax havens and to avoid tax evasion in developed countries. These two terms (transfer pricing and tax havens combined, make the benefits of affiliated groups to grow impressively.
Martingale approach in pricing and hedging European options under regime-switching
Grigori N. Milstein; Vladimir Spokoiny
2011-01-01
The paper focuses on the problem of pricing and hedging a European contingent claim for an incomplete market model, in which evolution of price processes for a saving account and stocks depends on an observable Markov chain. The pricing function is evaluated using the martingale approach. The equivalent martingale measure is introduced in a way that the Markov chain remains the historical one, and the pricing function satisfies the Cauchy problem for a system of linear parabolic equations. It...
Accounting and methodical approaches to display law permanent and temprorary use of land assets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T.P. Ostapchuk
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The uniqueness of the land resources as an economic category determines the specific construction of the system of accounting which involves the accumulation, systematization, processing and analysis of economic information on quantitative, qualitative, money indicators and legal information about these objects. A large number of lands used by many entities on the rights of permanent or temporary use. Taking into account the need to use temporarily borrowed land resources by business entities, there is a need to develop general methods of displaying operations with limited real rights on accounts of both the land owners and their users. The article researches the question of theoretical and methodical aspects of accounting displaying permanent and temporary rights to use land assets in Ukraine. It examines the issue of economic and legal nature of these rights, the peculiarities of legal regulation of transactions with them. The paper deals with the procedure of their receiving and its impact on the accounting software. The author analyzes the existing approaches of other authors and proposes her own position.
Location as a determinant of accommodation prices: managerial approach
Napierała, Tomasz; Leśniewska, Katarzyna
2014-01-01
In the presentation authors discuss the location-based factors’ impact on accommodation prices. The aim of the presentation is to compare the results of qualitative and quantitative research on location-based determinants of accommodation prices in Lodz Metropolitan Area (Poland). The authors employ methodological triangulation (Yeung 2000), both to explore statistical significance of location-based determinants of accommodation prices, and to present managerial opinions about the influence o...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1991-01-01
The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored
Nasuha, Rizky
2013-01-01
The research was motivated by the development of the business world, where companies rely heavily on investment. Before investing, stock investment in this case, it is necessary to consider the possibilities that will be faced by investors. One method used to assess investment decisions is the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). This study aims to analyze the CAPM method related to stock investment decisions. Types of research used in this research is descriptive research with quantitative ap...
Kurniawan, Fauzi Adi
2015-01-01
This research purpose to determine the performance of stock based on the return and risk to determine the group of efficient stocks and inefficient stock by the use of methods of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The sample used in this study were 15 company shares consumer goods industry sector listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2011-2013 that selected based on certain criteria. The analysis showed there is 1 stock companies included in the group of inefficient stock (overvalued) and 14 st...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jakobsen, Kristian Thor
2013-01-01
to the fact that some areas facing increased level of climate-related risks lack access to productive and human capital, while other areas facing a similar situation have relatively insufficient access to financial assets. This again shows that any non-targeted policy aiming at improving households’ risk-management......The application of a livelihood asset-based approach to adaptation policy targeting is presented through the creation of maps highlighting the spatial contrasts of access to various types of livelihood assets utilizing primary household data. Thus, the livelihood maps provide policy......-makers with a tool to quickly identify areas with limited access to certain types of assets, making the latter less able to react to a changing level of climaterelated risks. In the case of Bhutan, distinct spatial patterns of asset endowments is identified using five different asset indicators drawing attention...
Successful New Product Pricing Practices: A Contingency Approach
Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Debruyne, M.; Frambach, R.T.; Verhallen, T.M.M.
2003-01-01
The purpose of this study is to examine the success of new product pricing practices and the conditions upon which success is contingent. We distinguish three different pricing practices that refer to the use of information on customer value, competition, and costs respectively. Following Monroe's
Successful New Product Pricing Practices: A Contingency Approach
Ingenbleek, P.T.M.; Debruyne, M.; Frambach, R.T.; Verhallen, Th.M.M.
2003-01-01
Abstract The purpose of this study is to examine the success of new product pricing practices and the conditions upon which success is contingent. We distinguish three different pricing practices that refer to the use of information on customer value, competition, and costs respectively. Following
In-Store Experimental Approach to Pricing and Consumer Behavior
Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Foxall, Gordon; Saevarsson, Hugi
2010-01-01
This study assessed how, and to what extent, it is possible to use behavioral experimentation and relative sales analysis to study the effects of price on consumers' brand choices in the store environment. An in-store experiment was performed in four stores to investigate the effects of different prices of a target brand on consumers' relative…
A risk-based approach to sanitary sewer pipe asset management.
Baah, Kelly; Dubey, Brajesh; Harvey, Richard; McBean, Edward
2015-02-01
Wastewater collection systems are an important component of proper management of wastewater to prevent environmental and human health implications from mismanagement of anthropogenic waste. Due to aging and inadequate asset management practices, the wastewater collection assets of many cities around the globe are in a state of rapid decline and in need of urgent attention. Risk management is a tool which can help prioritize resources to better manage and rehabilitate wastewater collection systems. In this study, a risk matrix and a weighted sum multi-criteria decision-matrix are used to assess the consequence and risk of sewer pipe failure for a mid-sized city, using ArcGIS. The methodology shows that six percent of the uninspected sewer pipe assets of the case study have a high consequence of failure while four percent of the assets have a high risk of failure and hence provide priorities for inspection. A map incorporating risk of sewer pipe failure and consequence is developed to facilitate future planning, rehabilitation and maintenance programs. The consequence of failure assessment also includes a novel failure impact factor which captures the effect of structurally defective stormwater pipes on the failure assessment. The methodology recommended in this study can serve as a basis for future planning and decision making and has the potential to be universally applied by municipal sewer pipe asset managers globally to effectively manage the sanitary sewer pipe infrastructure within their jurisdiction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The pricing of firm bonds with extendable maturity by the reduced form approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
REN Xuemin
2012-10-01
Full Text Available We associate credit events with market rates to price firm bonds with extendable maturity.We deal with the credit risk by the reduced form approach and obtain the pricing formula for firm bonds with extendable maturity by the PDE approach under the assumption of stochastic interest rate and compare its return rate with that of ordinary firm bonds.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Shanming
1996-01-01
The ASSET philosophy for prevention of nuclear safety incident is being implemented in our nuclear power plant as the other international nuclear power plants, and the in-depth analysis of operational events in order to find out and eliminate the root causes is considered as the prioritized work in the plant safety management. Some observations are discussed which were made during the implementation of ASSET philosophy and the ASSET approach in our nuclear power plant
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shanming, Zhang [Dayabay NPP (China)
1997-12-31
The ASSET philosophy for prevention of nuclear safety incident is being implemented in our nuclear power plant as the other international nuclear power plants, and the in-depth analysis of operational events in order to find out and eliminate the root causes is considered as the prioritized work in the plant safety management. Some observations are discussed which were made during the implementation of ASSET philosophy and the ASSET approach in our nuclear power plant.
ASSET Queries: A Set-Oriented and Column-Wise Approach to Modern OLAP
Chatziantoniou, Damianos; Sotiropoulos, Yannis
Modern data analysis has given birth to numerous grouping constructs and programming paradigms, way beyond the traditional group by. Applications such as data warehousing, web log analysis, streams monitoring and social networks understanding necessitated the use of data cubes, grouping variables, windows and MapReduce. In this paper we review the associated set (ASSET) concept and discuss its applicability in both continuous and traditional data settings. Given a set of values B, an associated set over B is just a collection of annotated data multisets, one for each b(B. The goal is to efficiently compute aggregates over these data sets. An ASSET query consists of repeated definitions of associated sets and aggregates of these, possibly correlated, resembling a spreadsheet document. We review systems implementing ASSET queries both in continuous and persistent contexts and argue for associated sets' analytical abilities and optimization opportunities.
Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach
Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani
2017-05-01
Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.
A hybrid approach for probabilistic forecasting of electricity price
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wan, Can; Xu, Zhao; Wang, Yelei
2014-01-01
to the nonstationarities involved in market clearing prices (MCPs), it is rather difficult to accurately predict MCPs in advance. The challenge is getting intensified as more and more renewable energy and other new technologies emerged in smart grids. Therefore transformation from traditional point forecasts...... electricity price forecasting is proposed in this paper. The effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method has been validated through comprehensive tests using real price data from Australian electricity market.......The electricity market plays a key role in realizing the economic prophecy of smart grids. Accurate and reliable electricity market price forecasting is essential to facilitate various decision making activities of market participants in the future smart grid environment. However, due...
Oil price dynamics and speculation. A multivariate financial approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cifarelli, Giulio; Paladino, Giovanna
2010-01-01
This paper assesses empirically whether speculation affects oil price dynamics. The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has led to the diffusion of trading techniques based on extrapolative expectations. Strategies of this kind foster feedback trading that may cause considerable departures of prices from their fundamental values. We investigate this hypothesis using a modified CAPM following Shiller (1984) and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). First, a univariate GARCH(1,1)-M is estimated assuming the risk premium to be a function of the conditional oil price volatility. The single factor model, however, is outperformed by the multifactor ICAPM (Merton, 1973), which takes into account a larger investment opportunity set. Analysis is then carried out using a trivariate CCC GARCH-M model with complex nonlinear conditional mean equations where oil price dynamics are associated with both stock market and exchange rate behavior. We find strong evidence that oil price shifts are negatively related to stock price and exchange rate changes and that a complex web of time-varying first and second order conditional moment interactions affects both the CAPM and feedback trading components of the model. Despite the difficulties, we identify a significant role played by speculation in the oil market, which is consistent with the observed large daily upward and downward shifts in prices - a clear evidence that it is not a fundamental-driven market. Thus, from a policy point of view - given the impact of volatile oil prices on global inflation and growth - actions that monitor speculative activities on commodity markets more effectively are to be welcomed. (author)
Oil price dynamics and speculation. A multivariate financial approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cifarelli, Giulio [University of Florence, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, via delle Pandette 9, 50127, Florence (Italy); Paladino, Giovanna [Economics Department, LUISS University (Italy); BIIS International Division (Italy)
2010-03-15
This paper assesses empirically whether speculation affects oil price dynamics. The growing presence of financial operators in the oil markets has led to the diffusion of trading techniques based on extrapolative expectations. Strategies of this kind foster feedback trading that may cause considerable departures of prices from their fundamental values. We investigate this hypothesis using a modified CAPM following Shiller (1984) and Sentana and Wadhwani (1992). First, a univariate GARCH(1,1)-M is estimated assuming the risk premium to be a function of the conditional oil price volatility. The single factor model, however, is outperformed by the multifactor ICAPM (Merton, 1973), which takes into account a larger investment opportunity set. Analysis is then carried out using a trivariate CCC GARCH-M model with complex nonlinear conditional mean equations where oil price dynamics are associated with both stock market and exchange rate behavior. We find strong evidence that oil price shifts are negatively related to stock price and exchange rate changes and that a complex web of time-varying first and second order conditional moment interactions affects both the CAPM and feedback trading components of the model. Despite the difficulties, we identify a significant role played by speculation in the oil market, which is consistent with the observed large daily upward and downward shifts in prices - a clear evidence that it is not a fundamental-driven market. Thus, from a policy point of view - given the impact of volatile oil prices on global inflation and growth - actions that monitor speculative activities on commodity markets more effectively are to be welcomed. (author)
Forecasting the price of gold: An error correction approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kausik Gangopadhyay
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Gold prices in the Indian market may be influenced by a multitude of factors such as the value of gold in investment decisions, as an inflation hedge, and in consumption motives. We develop a model to explain and forecast gold prices in India, using a vector error correction model. We identify investment decision and inflation hedge as prime movers of the data. We also present out-of-sample forecasts of our model and the related properties.
The price sensitivity of Medicare beneficiaries: a regression discontinuity approach.
Buchmueller, Thomas C; Grazier, Kyle; Hirth, Richard A; Okeke, Edward N
2013-01-01
We use 4 years of data from the retiree health benefits program of the University of Michigan to estimate the effect of price on the health plan choices of Medicare beneficiaries. During the period of our analysis, changes in the University's premium contribution rules led to substantial price changes. A key feature of this 'natural experiment' is that individuals who had retired before a certain date were exempted from having to pay any premium contributions. This 'grandfathering' creates quasi-experimental variation that is ideal for estimating the effect of price. Using regression discontinuity methods, we compare the plan choices of individuals who retired just after the grandfathering cutoff date and were therefore exposed to significant price changes to the choices of a 'control group' of individuals who retired just before that date and therefore did not experience the price changes. The results indicate a statistically significant effect of price, with a $10 increase in monthly premium contributions leading to a 2 to 3 percentage point decrease in a plan's market share. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A Simple Approach to Interest-Rate Option Pricing.
Turnbull, Stuart M; Milne, Frank
1991-01-01
A simple introduction to contingent claim valuation of risky assets in a discrete time, stochastic interest-rate economy is provided. Taking the term structure of interest rates as exogenous, closed-form solutions are derived for European options written on (1) Treasury bills, (2) interest-rate forward contracts, (3) interest-rate futures contracts, (4) Treasury bonds, (5) interest-rate caps, (6) stock options, (7) equity forward contracts, (8) equity futures contracts, (9) Eurodollar liabili...
Essays on robust asset pricing
Horváth, Ferenc
2017-01-01
The central concept of this doctoral dissertation is robustness. I analyze how model and parameter uncertainty affect financial decisions of investors and fund managers, and what their equilibrium consequences are. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the most important concepts and methodologies used in
Asset Pricing in Emerging Markets
Ajrapetova, Tamara
2017-01-01
General content: Current methods of estimation of cost of capital in the emerging markets are often neglecting various contradictions with the essentials of the model structure and assumptions. As the result of such imprecisions, the cost of equity is often understated (overstated). This thesis will attempt to assess current level of emerging market integration, liquidity and concentration. This will be followed by evaluation of traditional and alternative models for estimation of cost of equ...
Asset pricing with index investing
Georgy Chabakauri; Oleg Rytchkov
2014-01-01
We provide a novel theoretical analysis of how index investing affects capital market equilibrium. We consider a dynamic exchange economy with heterogeneous investors and two Lucas trees and find that indexing can either increase or decrease the correlation between stock returns and in general increases (decreases) volatilities and betas of stocks with larger (smaller) market capitalizations. Indexing also decreases market volatility and interest rates, although those effects are weak. The im...
Downside Risk and Asset Pricing
G.T. Post (Thierry); P. van Vliet (Pim)
2004-01-01
textabstractWe analyze if the value-weighted stock market portfolio is second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) efficient relative to benchmark portfolios formed on size, value, and momentum. In the process, we also develop several methodological improvements to the existing tests for SSD efficiency.
Unanticipated money and the demand for foreign assets : a rational expectations approach
Kumah, F.Y.
1995-01-01
This paper is an attempt at empirically investigating one of the building blocks of the foreign exchange market - the demand for foreign financial assets - under two alternative monetary policy rules (the fixed rate of growth of money rule and the feedback monetary policy rule) using time series
Dynamic Allocation or Diversification: A Regime-Based Approach to Multiple Assets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nystrup, Peter; Hansen, Bo William; Larsen, Henrik Olejasz
2018-01-01
’ behavior and a new, more intuitive way of inferring the hidden market regimes. The empirical results show that regime-based asset allocation is profitable, even when compared to a diversified benchmark portfolio. The results are robust because they are based on available market data with no assumptions...... about forecasting skills....
A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire
Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2013-01-01
Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...
The Sociological Imagination and Community-Based Learning: Using an Asset-Based Approach
Garoutte, Lisa
2018-01-01
Fostering a sociological imagination in students is a central goal for most introductory sociology courses and sociology departments generally, yet success is difficult to achieve. This project suggests that using elements of asset-based community development can be used in sociology classrooms to develop a sociological perspective. After…
ACCOUNTING ALTERNATIVE TREATMENTS REGARDING FIXED ASSETS - A NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL APPROACH
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ion PERES
2009-12-01
Full Text Available By introducing the IFRS, as main accountancy source for the quoted enterprises, on the markets established byEU, for making strong its position within the interior of a such large market, IASB could not present itself souninterested in front of a potential extension of own accountancy documents, to a great number of small and middleenterprises, functional on the European market. Everyt hing is directed towards a growth of competitive capacity ofenterprises, thanks to comparability, an existing characteristic within the internal accountancy Standard, generallyapplied (even in the simplified form for the small dimensions enterprises, an d either on sector’s level or upon creditsaccess level.Tangible assets are handled by the Interna tional Accounting Standard 16 – Tangible assets. The main issuesaddressed by IAS 16 Tangible assets refers to: recognition time of assets, determinati on of their accounting value,depreciation expenses to be recognized in connection with these values, the accounting treatment, requirements forsubmission of information.This research papers objective consists on verifying the impact generated over the management of enterpriseactivity, by applying the international standards of accountancy IAS/IFRS, in editing and publishing the accountingperiod balance and of that reinforced balance, for the quoted companies. The aspects that we will underline with gr eatimportance will represent the modifications brought to the economic -financial informational system and ofmodifications appeared with a view to analyze the activity and performance of enterprises
Dynamic Pricing of New Products in Competitive Markets: A Mean-Field Game Approach
Chenavaz, Régis; Paraschiv, Corina; Turinici, Gabriel
2017-01-01
Dynamic pricing of new products has been extensively studied in monopolistic and oligopolistic markets. But, the optimal control and differential game tools used to investigate the pricing behavior on markets with a finite number of firms are not well-suited to model competitive markets with an infinity of firms. Using a mean-field games approach, this paper examines dynamic pricing policies in competitive markets, where no firm exerts market power. The theoretical setting is based on a diffu...
Reforming residential electricity tariff in China: Block tariffs pricing approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sun, Chuanwang; Lin, Boqiang
2013-01-01
The Chinese households that make up approximately a quarter of world households are facing a residential power tariff reform in which a rising block tariff structure will be implemented, and this tariff mechanism is widely used around the world. The basic principle of the structure is to assign a higher price for higher income consumers with low price elasticity of power demand. To capture the non-linear effects of price and income on elasticities, we set up a translog demand model. The empirical findings indicate that the higher income consumers are less sensitive than those with lower income to price changes. We further put forward three proposals of Chinese residential electricity tariffs. Compared to a flat tariff, the reasonable block tariff structure generates more efficient allocation of cross-subsidies, better incentives for raising the efficiency of electricity usage and reducing emissions from power generation, which also supports the living standards of low income households. - Highlights: • We design a rising block tariff structure of residential electricity in China. • We set up a translog demand model to find the non-linear effects on elasticities. • The higher income groups are less sensitive to price changes. • Block tariff structure generates more efficient allocation of cross-subsidies. • Block tariff structure supports the living standards of low income households
A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Ortlieb, Sebastian; Fichtner, Wolf
2013-01-01
Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series. - Highlights: • Wind power feed-in can be directly simulated with stochastic processes. • Non-linear relationship between wind power feed-in and electricity prices. • Price reduction effect of wind power feed-in depends on the actual load. • Considering wind power feed-in effects improves the electricity price simulation. • Combined modeling of both parameters delivers a data basis for evaluation tools
Efficiently Inefficient Markets for Assets and Asset Management
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garleanu, Nicolae; Pedersen, Lasse Heje
We consider a model where investors can invest directly or search for an asset manager, information about assets is costly, and managers charge an endogenous fee. The efficiency of asset prices is linked to the efficiency of the asset management market: if investors can find managers more easily......, more money is allocated to active management, fees are lower, and asset prices are more efficient. Informed managers outperform after fees, uninformed managers underperform after fees, and the net performance of the average manager depends on the number of "noise allocators." Small investors should...... be passive, but large and sophisticated investors benefit from searching for informed active managers since their search cost is low relative to capital. Hence, managers with larger and more sophisticated investors are expected to outperform....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lya Aklimawati
2013-12-01
Full Text Available High volatility cocoa price movement is consequenced by imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in the international commerce. Dynamic prices moving erratically influence the benefit of market players, particularly producers. The aim of this research is (1 to estimate the empirical cocoa prices model for responding market dynamics and (2 analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables on cocoa prices. This research was carried out by analyzing annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM approach was used to estimate the econometric model of cocoa price.The estimation results indicated that cocoa price was significantly affected by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product, world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock were elastic (E >1, while other variables were inelastic (E <1. Variables that affecting cocoa pricesin short run equilibrium were exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product, world inflation, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock. The analysis results showed that world gross domestic product, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock were elastic (E >1 to cocoa prices in short-term. Whereas, the response of cocoa prices was inelastic to change of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
El Farouq, Naïma, E-mail: naima.elfarouq@univ-bpclermont.fr [Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont-Ferrand II) (France); Bernhard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.bernhard@inria.fr [INRIA Sophia Antipolis-Méditerranée (France)
2015-10-15
We prove the missing uniqueness theorem for the viscosity solution of a quasi-variational inequality related to a minimax impulse control problem modeling the option pricing with proportional transactions costs. This result makes our robust control approach of option pricing in the interval market model essentially complete.
Effects of unit-based garbage pricing : A differences-in-differences approach
Allers, Maarten A.; Hoeben, Corine
Using a unique 10-year dataset of all 458 Dutch municipalities, we apply a differences-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of unit-based pricing on household waste quantities and recycling. Community-level studies of unit-based pricing typically do not include fixed effects at the local
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Farouq, Naïma; Bernhard, Pierre
2015-01-01
We prove the missing uniqueness theorem for the viscosity solution of a quasi-variational inequality related to a minimax impulse control problem modeling the option pricing with proportional transactions costs. This result makes our robust control approach of option pricing in the interval market model essentially complete
Method of moments approach to pricing double barrier contracts in polynomial jump-diffusion models
Eriksson, B.; Pistorius, M.
2011-01-01
Abstract: We present a method of moments approach to pricing double barrier contracts when the underlying is modelled by a polynomial jump-diffusion. By general principles the price is linked to certain infinite dimensional linear programming problems. Subsequently approximating these by finite
Promoting self-determination and financial security through innovative asset building approaches.
Burke-Miller, Jane K; Swarbrick, Margaret A; Carter, Tina M; Jonikas, Jessica A; Zipple, Anthony M; Fraser, Virginia V; Cook, Judith A
2010-01-01
Studies indicate that asset development programs such as Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) can enhance the economic security of low-income populations; however, only a handful of asset development programs have been implemented specifically to serve people with psychiatric disabilities, and larger programs have not collected disability-specific information. The purpose of this article is to increase our knowledge about the use of IDAs to enhance self-determination and recovery for people with psychiatric disabilities. Background information about IDAs is presented followed by case studies of two IDA programs that serve people with psychiatric disabilities. The use of IDA programs in enhancing self-determination among people with psychiatric disabilities is discussed, along with barriers and future directions.
Inflation risk and international asset returns
G.A. Moerman (Gerard); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)
2010-01-01
textabstractWe show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the
Retrading, production, and asset market performance.
Gjerstad, Steven D; Porter, David; Smith, Vernon L; Winn, Abel
2015-11-24
Prior studies have shown that traders quickly converge to the price-quantity equilibrium in markets for goods that are immediately consumed, but they produce speculative price bubbles in resalable asset markets. We present a stock-flow model of durable assets in which the existing stock of assets is subject to depreciation and producers may produce additional units of the asset. In our laboratory experiments inexperienced consumers who can resell their units disregard the consumption value of the assets and compete vigorously with producers, depressing prices and production. Consumers who have first participated in experiments without resale learn to heed their consumption values and, when they are given the option to resell, trade at equilibrium prices. Reproducibility is therefore the most natural and most effective treatment for suppression of bubbles in asset market experiments.
Optimal pricing in retail: a Cox regression approach
Meijer, R.; Bhulai, S.
2013-01-01
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study the optimal pricing problem that retailers are challenged with when dealing with seasonal products. The friction between expected demand and realized demand creates a risk that supply during the season is not cleared, thus forcing the retailer to
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bouri, Elie
2015-01-01
Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market
Heterogeneity and option pricing
Benninga, Simon; Mayshar, Joram
2000-01-01
An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chattopadhyay, Manojit; Kumar Mitra, Subrata
2015-01-01
The present work endeavors to explore the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in India where prices are not only affected by the crude oil price changes in the international markets but are also subject to government interventions. In order to protect domestic consumers from this volatility, historically the government of India tried to control the domestic price of petroleum products by cross subsidization and giving subsidies. In this paper, we analyze the impact of crude oil price on domestic oil prices by applying nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map (GHSOM) approaches for the period of April, 2005–July, 2014. The GHSOM has been explored through pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior using similarity measures. From the study it can be interpreted that the prices of products left to be determined by the market exhibit a strong asymmetry. However, pricing of the products that are monitored and controlled by the government do not exhibit any such asymmetry. Hence, the question still remains – should the government intervene in pricing petroleum products when monopolistic attitudes of large oil companies are detrimental to the interest of retail consumers? - Highlights: • We explored the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in India. • Analyze cointegration and asymmetric behavior of oil products by NARDL approach. • GHSOM method has been explored for pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior. • The analysis reveals that the market determined prices exhibits a strong asymmetry. • Oil product pricing controlled by the government do not exhibit such asymmetry.
Basel III and Asset Securitization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Mpundu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Asset securitization via special purpose entities involves the process of transforming assets into securities that are issued to investors. These investors hold the rights to payments supported by the cash flows from an asset pool held by the said entity. In this paper, we discuss the mechanism by which low- and high-quality entities securitize low- and high-quality assets, respectively, into collateralized debt obligations. During the 2007–2009 financial crisis, asset securitization was seriously inhibited. In response to this, for instance, new Basel III capital and liquidity regulations were introduced. Here, we find that we can explicitly determine the transaction costs related to low-quality asset securitization. Also, in the case of dynamic and static multipliers, the effects of unexpected negative shocks such as rating downgrades on asset price and input, debt obligation price and output, and profit will be quantified. In this case, we note that Basel III has been designed to provide countercyclical capital buffers to negate procyclicality. Moreover, we will develop an illustrative example of low-quality asset securitization for subprime mortgages. Furthermore, numerical examples to illustrate the key results will be provided. In addition, connections between Basel III and asset securitization will be highlighted.
Nuclear industry strategic asset management: Managing nuclear assets in a competitive environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mueller, H.; Hunt, E.W. Jr.; Oatman, E.N.
1999-01-01
The former Electric Power Research Institute took the lead in developing an approach now widely known as strategic asset management (SAM). The SAM methodology applies the tools of decision/risk analysis used in the financial community to clarify effective use of physical assets and resources to create value: to build a clear line of sight to value creation. SAM processes have been used in both the power and other industries. The rapid change taking place in the nuclear business creates the need for competitive decision making regarding the management of nuclear assets. The nuclear industry is moving into an era in which shareholder value is determined by the net revenues earned on power marketed in a highly competitive and frequently low-priced power market environment
Sylvain M. Prado
2009-01-01
In the leasing industry, the risk of loss on sales at the end of the contract term, as well as pricing are critically impacted by the forecasted resale price of the asset (residual value). We apply the Hedonic methodology to European auto lease portfolios, in order to estimate the resale price distribution. The Hedonic approach estimates the price of a good through the valuation of its attributes. Following a discussion on Hedonic prices, we propose an operational model for the automobile res...
Jia, Xiaoliang; An, Haizhong; Sun, Xiaoqi; Huang, Xuan; Gao, Xiangyun
2016-04-01
The globalization and regionalization of crude oil trade inevitably give rise to the difference of crude oil prices. The understanding of the pattern of the crude oil prices' mutual propagation is essential for analyzing the development of global oil trade. Previous research has focused mainly on the fuzzy long- or short-term one-to-one propagation of bivariate oil prices, generally ignoring various patterns of periodical multivariate propagation. This study presents a wavelet-based network approach to help uncover the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices in a joint time-frequency period. The weekly oil spot prices of the OPEC member states from June 1999 to March 2011 are adopted as the sample data. First, we used wavelet analysis to find different subseries based on an optimal decomposing scale to describe the periodical feature of the original oil price time series. Second, a complex network model was constructed based on an optimal threshold selection to describe the structural feature of multivariable oil prices. Third, Bayesian network analysis (BNA) was conducted to find the probability causal relationship based on periodical structural features to describe the various patterns of periodical multivariable propagation. Finally, the significance of the leading and intermediary oil prices is discussed. These findings are beneficial for the implementation of periodical target-oriented pricing policies and investment strategies.
The value of building safety: A hedonic price approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yung Yau
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Theoretical and empirical studies on how building performance is valued by the property market abound in the literature. Some of them investigate changes in property prices after building renovation, but little has been done on pricing the safety performance of buildings. This article presents a study that explores whether residential properties in safer buildings command higher market values in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a good laboratory for this study because building failures can pose a serious threat in such a densely populated high-rise environment. The study measures the safety performance of a building by the weighted number of unauthorised building works (UBWs on the external walls of the buildings. By their nature, UBWs are building works that are constructed without prior approval and consent from the government. A hedonic price model is developed to assess the market value of building safety. For the model estimation, apart from the property transaction data, the number of unauthorised appendages (i.e., UBWs attached to the building facades in each building studied is obtained through a building survey. Based on the analysis results, several hypotheses built upon the theories of self-protection and self-insurance are tested.
Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing
Wróblewski, Marcin
2017-05-01
This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.
Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cabedo, J.D.; Moya, I.
2003-01-01
In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach. developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification. (author)
Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
David Cabedo, J.; Moya, Ismael
2003-01-01
In this paper we propose using Value at Risk (VaR) for oil price risk quantification. VaR provides an estimation for the maximum oil price change associated with a likelihood level, and can be used for designing risk management strategies. We analyse three VaR calculation methods: the historical simulation standard approach, the historical simulation with ARMA forecasts (HSAF) approach, developed in this paper, and the variance-covariance method based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models forecasts. The results obtained indicate that HSAF methodology provides a flexible VaR quantification, which fits the continuous oil price movements well and provides an efficient risk quantification
Measuring the CO2 shadow price for wastewater treatment: A directional distance function approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Molinos-Senante, María; Hanley, Nick; Sala-Garrido, Ramón
2015-01-01
Highlights: • The shadow price of CO 2 informs about the marginal abatement cost of this pollutant. • It is estimated the shadow price of CO 2 for wastewater treatment plants. • The shadow prices depend on the setting of the directional vectors of the distance function. • Sewage sludge treatment technology affects the CO 2 shadow price. - Abstract: The estimation of the value of carbon emissions has become a major research and policy topic since the establishment of the Kyoto Protocol. The shadow price of CO 2 provides information about the marginal abatement cost of this pollutant. It is an essential element in guiding environmental policy issues, since the CO 2 shadow price can be used when fixing carbon tax rates, in environmental cost-benefit analysis and in ascertaining an initial market price for a trading system. The water industry could play an important role in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper estimates the shadow price of CO 2 for a sample of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), using a parametric quadratic directional distance function. Following this, in a sensitivity analysis, the paper evaluates the impact of different settings of directional vectors on the shadow prices. Applying the Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis non-parametric tests, factors affecting CO 2 prices are investigated. The variation of CO 2 shadow prices across the WWTPs evaluated argues in favour of a market-based approach to CO 2 mitigation as opposed to command-and-control regulation. The paper argues that the estimation of the shadow price of CO 2 for non-power enterprises can provide incentives for reducing GHG emissions
A new approach for crude oil price prediction based on stream learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shuang Gao
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Crude oil is the world's leading fuel, and its prices have a big impact on the global environment, economy as well as oil exploration and exploitation activities. Oil price forecasts are very useful to industries, governments and individuals. Although many methods have been developed for predicting oil prices, it remains one of the most challenging forecasting problems due to the high volatility of oil prices. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for crude oil price prediction based on a new machine learning paradigm called stream learning. The main advantage of our stream learning approach is that the prediction model can capture the changing pattern of oil prices since the model is continuously updated whenever new oil price data are available, with very small constant overhead. To evaluate the forecasting ability of our stream learning model, we compare it with three other popular oil price prediction models. The experiment results show that our stream learning model achieves the highest accuracy in terms of both mean squared prediction error and directional accuracy ratio over a variety of forecast time horizons.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Ghayeni
2010-12-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes an algorithm for transmission cost allocation (TCA in a large power system based on nodal pricing approach using the multi-area scheme. The nodal pricing approach is introduced to allocate the transmission costs by the control of nodal prices in a single area network. As the number of equations is dependent on the number of buses and generators, this method will be very time consuming for large power systems. To solve this problem, the present paper proposes a new algorithm based on multi-area approach for regulating the nodal prices, so that the simulation time is greatly reduced and therefore the TCA problem with nodal pricing approach will be applicable for large power systems. In addition, in this method the transmission costs are allocated to users more equitable. Since the higher transmission costs in an area having a higher reliability are paid only by users of that area in contrast with the single area method, in which these costs are allocated to all users regardless of their locations. The proposed method is implemented on the IEEE 118 bus test system which comprises three areas. Results show that with application of multi-area approach, the simulation time is greatly reduced and the transmission costs are also allocated to users with less variation in new nodal prices with respect to the single area approach.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu [Department of Electrical and Electronics, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nagakami Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213 (Japan); Funabashi, Toshihisa [Meidensha Corporation, Tokyo 103-8515 (Japan)
2006-09-15
In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Funabashi, Toshihisa
2006-01-01
In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6 h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy
The Cross-Section of Crypto-Currencies as Financial Assets: An Overview
Elendner, Hermann; Trimborn, Simon; Ong, Bobby; Lee, Teik Ming
2016-01-01
Crypto-currencies have developed a vibrant market since bitcoin, the first crypto-currency, was created in 2009. We look at the properties of cryptocurrencies as financial assets in a broad cross-section. We discuss approaches of altcoins to generate value and their trading and information platforms. Then we investigate crypto-currencies as alternative investment assets, studying their returns and the co-movements of altcoin prices with bitcoin and against each other. We evaluate their additi...
The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Turkish Business Cycle: A Markov Switching Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vasif Abiyev
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and the output growth in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - The data were taken from International Financial Statistics databases, consisting of monthly data for the period 1986:01-2014:09. Different univariate Markov - switching regime autoregressive models are specified and estimated. Among them we selected univariate MSIH(3 - AR(2 model for output and extended it to verify if the inclusion of various asymmetric oil price shocks as an exogenous variable improves the ability of the Markov switching model. Four different oil price shocks are considered. Findings - We find that among various oil price shocks, only net oil price increases have negative effects on output growth and mitigate the magnitude of some recessionary periods in Turkey. However, it doesn’t strongly explain the behavior of business cycle in Turkey. Research limitations/implications - Our results suggest that the inclusion of other fundamental financial factors in the bivariate Markov switching model of aggregate economic activity and oil price changes becomes important to explicitly detect the negative impact of oil price shocks on output in Turkey. Originality/value - Our results support the existence of a negative relationship between oil price increases and output growth mentioned in the literature and empirical studies on Turkey.
Goldschmidt, Y; Gafni, A
1991-01-01
The economic aspect of depreciation and interest on capital are incorporated within a managerial accounting framework by treating both items as imputed charges to be debited to the users of the assets' services. The costs of these services is examined for individual assets that provide either uniform or declining service over the expected life, and for a stock of assets where the character of the individual assets is ignored. By using imputed charges, the hospital's net income is allocated to its sources.
Option price calibration from Renyi entropy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brody, Dorje C.; Buckley, Ian R.C.; Constantinou, Irene C.
2007-01-01
The calibration of the risk-neutral density function for the future asset price, based on the maximisation of the entropy measure of Renyi, is proposed. Whilst the conventional approach based on the use of logarithmic entropy measure fails to produce the observed power-law distribution when calibrated against option prices, the approach outlined here is shown to produce the desired form of the distribution. Procedures for the maximisation of the Renyi entropy under constraints are outlined in detail, and a number of interesting properties of the resulting power-law distributions are also derived. The result is applied to efficiently evaluate prices of path-independent derivatives
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rausch, Sebastian; Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Reilly, John M.
2011-01-01
Many policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions have at their core efforts to put a price on carbon emissions. Carbon pricing impacts households both by raising the cost of carbon intensive products and by changing factor prices. A complete analysis requires taking both effects into account. The impact of carbon pricing is determined by heterogeneity in household spending patterns across income groups as well as heterogeneity in factor income patterns across income groups. It is also affected by precise formulation of the policy (how is the revenue from carbon pricing distributed) as well as the treatment of other government policies (e.g. the treatment of transfer payments). What is often neglected in analyses of policy is the heterogeneity of impacts across households even within income or regional groups. In this paper, we incorporate 15,588 households from the U.S. Consumer and Expenditure Survey data as individual agents in a comparative-static general equilibrium framework. These households are represented within the MIT USREP model, a detailed general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. In particular, we categorize households by full household income (factor income as well as transfer income) and apply various measures of lifetime income to distinguish households that are temporarily low-income (e.g., retired households drawing down their financial assets) from permanently low-income households. We also provide detailed within-group distributional measures of burden impacts from various policy scenarios. - Highlights: → We develop a simulation model with 15,588 households to study the distributional impacts of carbon pricing in the US. → Sources side impacts have typically been ignored in the literature biasing studies towards finding carbon pricing to be regressive. → Our general equilibrium framework allows us to capture uses and sources side impacts from carbon pricing. → We find that variation in impacts within broad socioeconomic groups may
Ruitenburg, Richard Jacob; Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan; van Dongen, Leonardus Adriana Maria
2014-01-01
Everyday our lives are dependent on countless physical structures. These assets represent an enormous value for their owners and for society at large. To grasp the full potential of these assets, a deep and thorough understanding of an asset's complete lifetime is needed. Problems with data
A DYNAMIC APPROACH TO CALCULATE SHADOW PRICES OF WATER RESOURCES FOR NINE MAJOR RIVERS IN CHINA
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Jing HE; Xikang CHEN; Yong SHI
2006-01-01
China is experiencing from serious water issues. There are many differences among the Nine Major Rivers basins of China in the construction of dikes, reservoirs, floodgates, flood discharge projects, flood diversion projects, water ecological construction, water conservancy management, etc.The shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers can provide suggestions to the Chinese government. This article develops a dynamic shadow prices approach based on a multiperiod input-output optimizing model. Unlike previous approaches, the new model is based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to solve the problem of marginal long-term prices of water resources.First, definitions and algorithms of DCGE are elaborated. Second, the results of shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers in 1949-2050 in China using the National Water Conservancy input-holding-output table for Nine Major Rivers in 1999 are listed. A conclusion of this article is that the shadow prices of water resources for Nine Major Rivers are largely based on the extent of scarcity.Selling prices of water resources should be revised via the usage of parameters representing shadow prices.
Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market: A neural network approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.
2007-01-01
This paper proposes a neural network approach for forecasting short-term electricity prices. Almost until the end of last century, electricity supply was considered a public service and any price forecasting which was undertaken tended to be over the longer term, concerning future fuel prices and technical improvements. Nowadays, short-term forecasts have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive electricity markets. In this new competitive framework, short-term price forecasting is required by producers and consumers to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. Accurate forecasting tools are essential for producers to maximize their profits, avowing profit losses over the misjudgement of future price movements, and for consumers to maximize their utilities. A three-layered feedforward neural network, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is used for forecasting next-week electricity prices. We evaluate the accuracy of the price forecasting attained with the proposed neural network approach, reporting the results from the electricity markets of mainland Spain and California. (author)
An economic evaluation of nuclear power plant externalities, using the hedonic price approach
Kato, Hirotaka; Ueta, Kazuhiro
2012-01-01
This study evaluates the external costs of nuclear power plants in Japan. Using the hedonic price approach, we analyze changes in land price in Fukui Prefecture before and after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The land in question is located far from the Fukushima accident area and was not directly impacted by the accident itself. The results of this study reveal that the area affected by the nuclear power plant's negative externalities expanded following the accident, and that the intensity ...
Itkin, Andrey
2017-01-01
This monograph presents a novel numerical approach to solving partial integro-differential equations arising in asset pricing models with jumps, which greatly exceeds the efficiency of existing approaches. The method, based on pseudo-differential operators and several original contributions to the theory of finite-difference schemes, is new as applied to the Lévy processes in finance, and is herein presented for the first time in a single volume. The results within, developed in a series of research papers, are collected and arranged together with the necessary background material from Lévy processes, the modern theory of finite-difference schemes, the theory of M-matrices and EM-matrices, etc., thus forming a self-contained work that gives the reader a smooth introduction to the subject. For readers with no knowledge of finance, a short explanation of the main financial terms and notions used in the book is given in the glossary. The latter part of the book demonstrates the efficacy of the method by solvin...
Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans [University of Edinburgh, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, The Management School (United Kingdom)
2008-11-15
Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)
Risk and return in oilfield asset holdings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Kirchner, Axel; Reusch, Hans
2008-01-01
Convention suggests that emerging market investment should provide commensurately lower risk or higher returns than comparable assets in developed countries. This study demonstrates that emerging markets contain regulatory specificities that challenge asset valuation model convergence and potentially invert risk return convention. 292 oilfield assets are used to provide evidence that, under upward oil prices, emerging markets are characterized by progressive state participation in oilfield cash flows. Specifically, this work advances the low oil price paradigm of prior oil and gas asset valuation studies and provides evidence that emerging market state participation terms limit the corporate value of globalization for the sector. (author)
Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mari, Carlo
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach
Teaching Price, Income, and Cross Elasticity of Demand: Another Approach.
Zahka, William J.
One of the most important, yet difficult concepts to teach in an undergraduate course in intermediate microeconomics is the all-embracing concept of elasticity of demand. This paper details a four part teaching approach developed to make this most important aspect of microeconomic theory more understandable. Part 1 develops the approach for…
Urban water infrastructure asset management - a structured approach in four water utilities.
Cardoso, M A; Silva, M Santos; Coelho, S T; Almeida, M C; Covas, D I C
2012-01-01
Water services are a strategic sector of large social and economic relevance. It is therefore essential that they are managed rationally and efficiently. Advanced water supply and wastewater infrastructure asset management (IAM) is key in achieving adequate levels of service in the future, particularly with regard to reliable and high quality drinking water supply, prevention of urban flooding, efficient use of natural resources and prevention of pollution. This paper presents a methodology for supporting the development of urban water IAM, developed during the AWARE-P project as well as an appraisal of its implementation in four water utilities. Both water supply and wastewater systems were considered. Due to the different contexts and features of the utilities, the main concerns vary from case to case; some problems essentially are related to performance, others to risk. Cost is a common deciding factor. The paper describes the procedure applied, focusing on the diversity of drivers, constraints, benefits and outcomes. It also points out the main challenges and the results obtained through the implementation of a structured procedure for supporting urban water IAM.
Analyzing price and efficiency dynamics of large appliances with the experience curve approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weiss, Martin; Patel, Martin K.; Junginger, Martin; Blok, Kornelis
2010-01-01
Large appliances are major power consumers in households of industrialized countries. Although their energy efficiency has been increasing substantially in past decades, still additional energy efficiency potentials exist. Energy policy that aims at realizing these potentials faces, however, growing concerns about possible adverse effects on commodity prices. Here, we address these concerns by applying the experience curve approach to analyze long-term price and energy efficiency trends of three wet appliances (washing machines, laundry dryers, and dishwashers) and two cold appliances (refrigerators and freezers). We identify a robust long-term decline in both specific price and specific energy consumption of large appliances. Specific prices of wet appliances decline at learning rates (LR) of 29±8% and thereby much faster than those of cold appliances (LR of 9±4%). Our results demonstrate that technological learning leads to substantial price decline, thus indicating that the introduction of novel and initially expensive energy efficiency technologies does not necessarily imply adverse price effects in the long term. By extending the conventional experience curve approach, we find a steady decline in the specific energy consumption of wet appliances (LR of 20-35%) and cold appliances (LR of 13-17%). Our analysis suggests that energy policy might be able to bend down energy experience curves. (author)
New approach to brown coal pricing using internal rate of return methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bejbl, Jan; Bemš, Julius; Králík, Tomáš; Starý, Oldřich; Vastl, Jaromír
2014-01-01
Highlights: • We showed that brown coal is the substitute for black coal only at the time of the investment decision. • We compiled the model used in a calculation of the economically justified price for the productive and extractive component. • The resulting economically justified price is on a par with the current black coal price. • The proposed methodological approach is applicable to solve similar tasks not only in the energy sector. - Abstract: Brown coal is one of the dominant local strategic raw materials in Europe, used, to a large extent, in the power-generating industry. The current situation, where the price of gas and electricity precludes the efficient use of gas sources, leads to the extraction of older sources, chiefly brown coal ones. In tandem with a turning away from nuclear power, brown coal is experiencing a renaissance and the issue of brown coal price setting is, and will be, relevant. This paper deals with a proposal of a new method for determining the base price, consisting of defining the reference fuel chain for electricity and heat production based on brown coal. It builds on the notion that the degree of risk of the involved parties should be reflected in the modified amount of revenue per capital invested. The resulting price is then an economically justified price which encourages a respect for the specific features of the market in question and set the base price of the commodity in a way that is acceptable for both the extractive and the productive components of the fuel chain
A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brons, Martijn; Rietveld, Piet [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA), Roetersstraat 31, 1018 WB Amsterdam (Netherlands); Nijkamp, Peter [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA), Roetersstraat 31, 1018 WB Amsterdam (Netherlands); The Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO), postbus 93138 - 2509 AC Den Haag (Netherlands); Pels, Eric [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)
2008-09-15
Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In this meta-analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta-analytical estimation approach based on a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with Cross Equation Restrictions. This approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size. Furthermore, it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta-regression results. The empirical results of the study demonstrate that the SUR approach leads to more precise results (i.e., lower standard errors) than a standard meta-analytical approach. We find that, with mean short run and long run price elasticities of - 0.34 and - 0.84, respectively, the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive. Both in the short and the long run, the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership. Furthermore, we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied, the year of the study, the type of data used, the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. (author)
A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brons, Martijn; Rietveld, Piet; Nijkamp, Peter; Pels, Eric
2008-01-01
Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In this meta-analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta-analytical estimation approach based on a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with Cross Equation Restrictions. This approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size. Furthermore, it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta-regression results. The empirical results of the study demonstrate that the SUR approach leads to more precise results (i.e., lower standard errors) than a standard meta-analytical approach. We find that, with mean short run and long run price elasticities of - 0.34 and - 0.84, respectively, the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive. Both in the short and the long run, the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership. Furthermore, we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied, the year of the study, the type of data used, the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kazaryan Ruben
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Problems of accounting and reporting of net assets and the procedure of their formation taking into account the specifics of the economic and legal status of property of a non-commercial autonomous institution are some of the most controversial in the accounting for entities of the public sector. The study focuses on justification of accounting rules for net assets of public sector entities. The methods used in the study are as follows: comparison, synthesis, analysis, logical approach, and system approach. The article examines legal aspects and specifics of recognition of assets of public sector entities in accordance with IPSAS standards (International Public Sector Accounting Standards are a set of accounting standards issued by IPSASB (Council for International Financial Reporting Standards for Public Sector Organizations used by state-owned enterprises worldwide in preparation of financial statements as of the 31st of August, 2015. The most crucial factor in the modeling of key performance indicators of the system-target approach to estimation of the sustainability level of net assets on the basis of IPSAS is a multicriterial evaluation of the basic management strategy for quality system elements used in operational and strategic planning projects operations in high-rise construction. We offer an alternative evaluation of assets due to be returned to the right holder (the state controller in the event of liquidation of a public sector entity.
Kazaryan, Ruben
2018-03-01
Problems of accounting and reporting of net assets and the procedure of their formation taking into account the specifics of the economic and legal status of property of a non-commercial autonomous institution are some of the most controversial in the accounting for entities of the public sector. The study focuses on justification of accounting rules for net assets of public sector entities. The methods used in the study are as follows: comparison, synthesis, analysis, logical approach, and system approach. The article examines legal aspects and specifics of recognition of assets of public sector entities in accordance with IPSAS standards (International Public Sector Accounting Standards are a set of accounting standards issued by IPSASB (Council for International Financial Reporting Standards for Public Sector Organizations) used by state-owned enterprises worldwide in preparation of financial statements as of the 31st of August, 2015. The most crucial factor in the modeling of key performance indicators of the system-target approach to estimation of the sustainability level of net assets on the basis of IPSAS is a multicriterial evaluation of the basic management strategy for quality system elements used in operational and strategic planning projects operations in high-rise construction. We offer an alternative evaluation of assets due to be returned to the right holder (the state controller) in the event of liquidation of a public sector entity.
Diller, Hermann
2013-01-01
Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...
Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Achi, Godswill U., E-mail: achigods@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, Abia State Polytechnic Aba, P.M.B. 7166, Aba, Abia State (Nigeria)
2014-10-24
The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.
Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Achi, Godswill U.
2014-01-01
The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing 9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ x (u) of X t we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices
Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation
Achi, Godswill U.
2014-10-01
The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φx(u) of Xt we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.
Problems with Cash and Other Non-Operating Assets Value in the Process of Valuing Company
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Piotr Szczepankowski
2007-12-01
Full Text Available In economic practice the process of valuing enterprises is based on potential earnings from companies operating assets ñ operating fixed assets and operating working capital. Cash and other non-operating assets (mainly financial are treated as unproductive, non-income assets. Eventually, in process of pricing their current, accounting value is added to income value of enterprise or cash is treated as source for quick covering the debts of firm, what of course indirectly improve for better value of equity (the lower financial risk. Not taking into account the profitable influence of cash value and other non-operating assets can negatively affect on result of final value of enterprise, reducing it. In the article two alternative approaches (separate and inclusive of cash value is presented. Also main determinants of estimating value of cash are described as well as potential threats of its valuation.
A tree-based method to price American options in the Heston model
Vellekoop, M.; Nieuwenhuis, H.
2009-01-01
We develop an algorithm to price American options on assets that follow the stochastic volatility model defined by Heston. We use an approach which is based on a modification of a combined tree for stock prices and volatilities, where the number of nodes grows quadratically in the number of time
Looking for Synergy with Momentum in Main Asset Classes
Lukas Macijauskas; Dimitrios I. Maditinos
2014-01-01
As during turbulent market conditions correlations between main asset-classes falter, classical asset management concepts seem unreliable. This problem stimulates search for non-discretionary asset allocation methods. The aim of the paper is to test weather the concept of Momentum phenomena could be used as a stand alone investment strategy using all main asset classes. The study is based on exploring historical prices of various asset classes; statistical data analysis method is used. Result...
Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.
Lin, Jeng-Hsiang
2018-04-01
Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.
ISO 55000: Creating an asset management system.
Bradley, Chris; Main, Kevin
2015-02-01
In the October 2014 issue of HEJ, Keith Hamer, group vice-president, Asset Management & Engineering at Sodexo, and marketing director at Asset Wisdom, Kevin Main, argued that the new ISO 55000 standards present facilities managers with an opportunity to create 'a joined-up, whole lifecycle approach' to managing and delivering value from assets. In this article, Kevin Main and Chris Bradley, who runs various asset management projects, examine the process of creating an asset management system.
Messori, Andrea
2016-08-01
Several cases of expensive drugs designed for large patient populations (e.g. sofosbuvir) have raised a complex question in terms of drug pricing. Even assuming value-based pricing, the treatment with these drugs of all eligible patients would have an immense budgetary impact, which is unsustainable also for the richest countries. This raises the need to reduce the prices of these agents in comparison with those suggested by the value-based approach and to devise new pricing methods that can achieve this goal. The present study discusses in detail the following two methods: (i) The approach based on setting nation-wide budget thresholds for individual innovative agents in which a fixed proportion of the historical pharmaceutical expenditure represents the maximum budget attributable to an innovative treatment; (ii) The approach based on nation-wide price-volume agreements in which drug prices are progressively reduced as more patients receive the treatment. The first approach has been developed in the USA by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review and has been applied to PCSK9 inhibitors (alirocumab and evolocumab). The second approach has been designed for the Italian market and has found a systematic application to manage the price of ranibizumab, sofosbuvir, and PCSK9 inhibitors. While, in the past, price-volume agreements have been applied only on an empirical basis (i.e. in the absence of any quantitative theoretical rule), more recently some explicit mathematical models have been described. The performance of these models is now being evaluated on the basis of the real-world experiences conducted in some European countries, especially Italy.
William T. Smith; Qiang Zhang
2006-01-01
Multiplicative habit introduces an additional consumption risk as a determinant of equity premium, and allows time preference and habit strength, in addition to risk aversion, to affect "price of risk". A model combining multiplicative habit and power-expo preferences cannot be rejected.
van den Boomen, M.; Schoenmaker, R.; Wolfert, A.R.M.
2017-01-01
Civil infrastructure assets, such as roads, locks, bridges, treatment plants and storm surge barriers, are often characterised by long service lives and corresponding technical life cycles. When life cycles are long, the time value of money plays a role in asset management decision-making on capital
An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Panduro, Toke Emil
2015-01-01
Omitted, misspecified, or mismeasured spatially varying characteristics are a cause for concern in hedonic house price models. Spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects have become popular ways of addressing these concerns. We discuss the limitations of standard spatial approaches to hedonic...
Distributed, price-based control approach to market-based operation of future power systems
Jokic, A.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Hermans, R.M.
2009-01-01
In this paper we present, discuss and illustrate on examples the price-based control paradigm as a suitable approach to solve some of the challenging problems facing future, market-based power systems. It is illustrated how global objectives and constraints are optimally translated into time-varying
Circulation of Railway Rolling Stock: A Branch-and-Price Approach
M. Peeters (Marc); L.G. Kroon (Leo)
2003-01-01
textabstractWe describe an algorithmic approach to determine an efficient railway rolling stock circulation on a single line or on a set of interacting lines. Given the timetable and the passengers? seat demand, we develop a branch-and-price algorithm that results in an allocation of rolling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Gyoung Cheol
2007-02-01
In the competitive circumstance of electricity industry, the economic efficiency of electricity generation facility is the most important factor to increase their competitiveness. For nuclear power plant (NPP), safety is also an essential factor. Over fast several years, efforts for development of safety concerned and financial asset maximizing method, process and tools have been continued internationally and Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) methodology is suggested by Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). This RIAM methodology is expected to provide plant operators with a project prioritization and life cycle management planning tool for making long-term maintenance plans, guiding plant budgeting, and determining the sensitivity of a plant's economic risk to the reliability and availability of system, structure, and components (SSC), as well as other technical and economic parameters. The focus of this study is to develop model that help us to resource allocation, to find what effect such allocations on the plant economic and safety performance. Detailed research process for this goal is as follow; First step for development of advanced RIAM model is to review for current RIAM model of EPRI. This part describes the overall RIAM methodology including its conceptual model, implementation process, modular approach etc. Second step is to perform feasibility study for current EPRI's RIAM model with case study. This part shows the result of feasibility study for current RIAM method by case study and discussion for result. Finally, concept of Advanced RIAM model is developed based on system dynamics approach and parameter relationship is formulated. In advanced RIAM Model, Identification of scheduled maintenance effect on other parameters and the relationship between PM Activity and failure rate is most important factor. In this study, these relationships are formulated based on system dynamics approach. Creations of these modeling tool using Vensim
Variable capacity utilization, ambient temperature shocks and generation asset valuation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tseng, Chung-Li; Dmitriev, Alexandre [Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052 (Australia); Zhu, Wei [Optim Energy, 225 E. John Carpenter Freeway, Irving, TX 75062 (United States)
2009-11-15
This paper discusses generation asset valuation in a framework where capital utilization decisions are endogenous. We use real options approach for valuation of natural gas fueled turbines. Capital utilization choices that we explore include turning on/off the unit, operating the unit at increased firing temperatures (overfiring), and conducting preventive maintenance. Overfiring provides capacity enhancement which comes at the expense of reduced maintenance interval and increased costs of part replacement. We consider the costs and benefits of overfiring in attempt to maximize the asset value by optimally exercising the overfire option. In addition to stochastic processes governing prices, we incorporate an exogenous productivity shock: ambient temperature. We consider how variation in ambient temperature affects the asset value through its effect on gas turbine's productivity. (author)
Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons
Beber, A.; Driessen, J.; Tuijp, P.F.A.
2012-01-01
We develop a new asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogenous horizons. Short-term investors hold only liquid assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation effects in the pricing of liquid versus illiquid assets. Specifically, the liquidity (risk) premia
Schenck, Natalya A.; Horvath, Philip A.; Sinha, Amit K.
2018-02-01
While the literature on price discovery process and information flow between dominant and satellite market is exhaustive, most studies have applied an approach that can be traced back to Hasbrouck (1995) or Gonzalo and Granger (1995). In this paper, however, we propose a Generalized Langevin process with asymmetric double-well potential function, with co-integrated time series and interconnected diffusion processes to model the information flow and price discovery process in two, a dominant and a satellite, interconnected markets. A simulated illustration of the model is also provided.
Historic, economic and geographic approach to the relations between economic growth and oil prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Girard, C.
1992-01-01
This paper attempts to analyze the complex relations between energy prices and economic growth. In part 1, the history of the last 30 years is used to analyze the consequences of energy price variations on world economic growth. In part 2, two interpretation schemes are described successively. One has to do with the international oil market, and the other concerns the impact of oil shocks on national economies. In part 3, an approach by type of country leads to conclusions respectively for the industrialized countries, for the developing countries and for the newly industrialized countries. 1 fig
2012-10-17
... BCBS in 2006 and 2009, as well as other proposals set forth in consultative papers of the BCBS. Section... provided in this Federal Register document, which describes the economic impact of the Standardized... in recent consultative papers of the BCBS.\\2\\ In the Standardized Approach NPR, the agencies also...
Operationalizing value-based pricing of medicines : a taxonomy of approaches.
Sussex, Jon; Towse, Adrian; Devlin, Nancy
2013-01-01
The UK Government is proposing a novel form of price regulation for branded medicines, which it has dubbed 'value-based pricing' (VBP). The specifics of how VBP will work are unclear. We provide an account of the possible means by which VBP of medicines might be operationalized, and a taxonomy to describe and categorize the various approaches. We begin with a brief discussion of the UK Government's proposal for VBP and proceed to define a taxonomy of approaches to VBP. The taxonomy has five main dimensions: (1) what is identified as being of value, (2) how each element is measured, (3) how it is valued, (4) how the different elements of value are aggregated, and (5) how the result is then used to determine the price of a medicine. We take as our starting point that VBP will include a measure of health gain and that, as proposed by the UK Government, this will be built on the QALY. Our principal interest is in the way criteria other than QALYs are taken into account, including severity of illness, the extent of unmet need, and wider societal considerations such as impacts on carers. We set out to: (1) identify and describe the full range of alternative means by which 'value' might be measured and valued, (2) identify and describe the options available for aggregating the different components of value to establish a maximum price, and (3) note the challenges and relative advantages associated with these approaches. We review the means by which aspects of VBP are currently operationalized in a selection of countries and place these, and proposals for the UK, in the context of our taxonomy. Finally, we give an initial assessment of the challenges, pros and cons of each approach. We conclude that identifying where VBP should lie on each of the five dimensions entails value judgements: there are no simple 'right or wrong' solutions. If a wider definition of value than incremental QALYs gained is adopted, as is desirable, then a pragmatic way to aggregate the different
Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal)
2011-02-15
In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)
Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Catalao, J.P.S.; Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.
2011-01-01
In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (author)
Using Partial Differential Equations for Pricing of Goods and Services
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Traykov Metodi
2016-06-01
Full Text Available This article is based on the methodology of comparative analysis, using an innovative approach for pricing of various goods and services. Benchmarking is the continuous search to find and adapt better pricing methods that leading to increased profits. We will consider the numerical solution of partial differential equations, based on Black-Scholes model for pricing of goods and services within European option. Also, we will present formulation and numerical behavior of explicit and implicit methods that can be use in pricing for company assets within European option.
Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices
Boswijk, H.P.; Hommes, C.H.; Manzan, S.
2007-01-01
We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An
A HYBRID GENETIC ALGORITHM-NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH FOR PRICING CORES AND REMANUFACTURED CORES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Seidi
2012-01-01
Full Text Available
ENGLISH ABSTRACT:Sustainability has become a major issue in most economies, causing many leading companies to focus on product recovery and reverse logistics. Remanufacturing is an industrial process that makes used products reusable. One of the important aspects in both reverse logistics and remanufacturing is the pricing of returned and remanufactured products (called cores. In this paper, we focus on pricing the cores and remanufactured cores. First we present a mathematical model for this purpose. Since this model does not satisfy our requirements, we propose a simulation optimisation approach. This approach consists of a hybrid genetic algorithm based on a neural network employed as the fitness function. We use automata learning theory to obtain the learning rate required for training the neural network. Numerical results demonstrate that the optimal value of the acquisition price of cores and price of remanufactured cores is obtained by this approach.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Volhoubaarheid het ‘n belangrike saak geword in die meeste ekonomieë, wat verskeie maatskappye genoop het om produkherwinning en omgekeerde logistiek te onder oë te neem. Hervervaardiging is ‘n industriële proses wat gebruikte produkte weer bruikbaar maak. Een van die belangrike aspekte in beide omgekeerde logistiek en hervervaardiging is die prysbepaling van herwinne en hervervaardigde produkte. Hierdie artikel fokus op die prysbepalingsaspekte by wyse van ‘n wiskundige model.
清水, 千弘; Chihiro, Shimizu
2014-01-01
How exactly should one estimate property investment returns? Investors in property aim to maximize capital gains from price increases and income generated by the property. How are the returns on investment in property determined based on its characteristics, and what kind of market characteristics does it have? Focusing on the Tokyo commer-cial property market and residential property market, the purpose of this paper was to break down and measure the micro-structure of property investment re...
A Cointegrated Regime-Switching Model Approach with Jumps Applied to Natural Gas Futures Prices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Leonhardt
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Energy commodities and their futures naturally show cointegrated price movements. However, there is empirical evidence that the prices of futures with different maturities might have, e.g., different jump behaviours in different market situations. Observing commodity futures over time, there is also evidence for different states of the underlying volatility of the futures. In this paper, we therefore allow for cointegration of the term structure within a multi-factor model, which includes seasonality, as well as joint and individual jumps in the price processes of futures with different maturities. The seasonality in this model is realized via a deterministic function, and the jumps are represented with thinned-out compound Poisson processes. The model also includes a regime-switching approach that is modelled through a Markov chain and extends the class of geometric models. We show how the model can be calibrated to empirical data and give some practical applications.
A Dynamic Programming Approach for Pricing Weather Derivatives under Issuer Default Risk
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wolfgang Karl Härdle
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contingent claims with payoff based on a pre-specified weather index. Firms exposed to weather risk can transfer it to financial markets via weather derivatives. We develop a utility-based model for pricing baskets of weather derivatives under default risk on the issuer side in over-the-counter markets. In our model, agents maximise the expected utility of their terminal wealth, while they dynamically rebalance their weather portfolios over a finite investment horizon. Using dynamic programming approach, we obtain semi-closed forms for the equilibrium prices of weather derivatives and for the optimal strategies of the agents. We give an example on how to price rainfall derivatives on selected stations in China in the universe of a financial investor and a weather exposed crop insurer.
Roy, Michael J
2017-08-08
The 'assets-based approach' to health and well-being has, on the one hand, been presented as a potentially empowering means to address the social determinants of health while, on the other, been criticised for obscuring structural drivers of inequality and encouraging individualisation and marketisation; in essence, for being a tool of neoliberalism. This study looks at how this apparent contestation plays out in practice through a critical realist-inspired examination of practitioner discourses, specifically of those working within communities to address social vulnerabilities that we know impact upon health. The study finds that practitioners interact with the assets-based policy discourse in interesting ways. Rather than unwitting tools of neoliberalism, they considered their work to be about mitigating the worst effects of poverty and social vulnerability in ways that enhance collectivism and solidarity, concepts that neoliberalism arguably seeks to disrupt. Furthermore, rather than a different, innovative, way of working, they consider the assets-based approach to simply be a re-labelling of what they have been doing anyway, for as long as they can remember. So, for practitioners, rather than a 'new' approach to public health, the assets-based public health movement seems to be a return to recognising and appreciating the role of community within public health policy and practice; ideals that predate neoliberalism by quite some considerable time.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Marekwica, Marcel; Maurer, Raimond; Sebastian, Steffen P.
2011-01-01
Executive Summary. This paper analyzes the relation between demographic structure and real asset returns on Treasury bills, bonds, and stocks for the G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany). A macroeconomic multifactor model is used to examine a...
A geometric approach to multiperiod mean variance optimization of assets and liabilities
Leippold, Markus; Trojani, Fabio; Vanini, Paolo
2005-01-01
We present a geometric approach to discrete time multiperiod mean variance portfolio optimization that largely simplifies the mathematical analysis and the economic interpretation of such model settings. We show that multiperiod mean variance optimal policies can be decomposed in an orthogonal set of basis strategies, each having a clear economic interpretation. This implies that the corresponding multi period mean variance frontiers are spanned by an orthogonal basis of dynamic returns. Spec...
Extreme prices in electricity balancing markets from an approach of statistical physics
Mureddu, Mario; Meyer-Ortmanns, Hildegard
2018-01-01
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, mainly due to an increased number of extreme price spikes. This study analyzes the impact of an increased share of renewable energy sources on the behavior of price and volumes of the Italian balancing market. Starting from configurations of load and power production, which guarantee a stable performance, we implement fluctuations in the load and in renewables; in particular we artificially increase the contribution of renewables as compared to conventional power sources to cover the total load. We then determine the amount of requested energy in the balancing market and its fluctuations, which are induced by production and consumption. Within an approach of agent-based modeling we estimate the resulting energy prices and costs. While their average values turn out to be only slightly affected by an increased contribution from renewables, the probability for extreme price events is shown to increase along with undesired peaks in the costs. Our methodology provides a tool for estimating outliers in prices obtained in the energy balancing market, once data of consumption, production and their typical fluctuations are provided.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schneider, Joachim; Gaul, Armin J. [RWE Energy AG, Assetmanagement, Dortmund (Germany); Neumann, Claus [RWE Transportnetz Strom GmbH, Dortmund (Germany); Hograefer, Juergen [SAG Energieversorgungsloesungen GmbH, Langen (Germany); Wellssow, Wolfram; Schwan, Michael [Siemens AG, Power Transmission and Distribution, Erlangen (Germany); Schnettler, Armin [RWTH-Aachen, Institut fuer Hochspannungstechnik, Aachen (Germany)
2006-11-15
Deregulation and an increasing competition in electricity markets urge energy suppliers to optimize the utilization of their equipment, focusing on technical and cost-effective aspects. As a respond to these requirements utilities introduce methods formerly used by investment managers or insurance companies. The article describes the usage of these methods, particularly with regard to asset management and risk management within electrical grids. The essential information needed to set up an appropriate asset management system and differences between asset management systems in transmission and distribution systems are discussed. The bulk of costs in electrical grids can be found in costs for maintenance and capital depreciation. A comprehensive approach for an asset management in transmission systems thus focuses on the 'life-cycle costs' of the individual equipment. The objective of the life management process is the optimal utilisation of the remaining life time regarding a given reliability of service and a constant distribution of costs for reinvestment and maintenance ensuring a suitable return. In distribution systems the high number of components would require an enormous effort for the consideration of single individuals. Therefore statistical approaches have been used successfully in practical applications. Newest insights gained by a German research project on asset management systems in distribution grids give an outlook to future developments. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schneider, Joachim; Gaul, Armin J.; Neumann, Claus; Hograefer, Juergen; Wellssow, Wolfram; Schwan, Michael; Schnettler, Armin
2006-01-01
Deregulation and an increasing competition in electricity markets urge energy suppliers to optimize the utilization of their equipment, focusing on technical and cost-effective aspects. As a respond to these requirements utilities introduce methods formerly used by investment managers or insurance companies. The article describes the usage of these methods, particularly with regard to asset management and risk management within electrical grids. The essential information needed to set up an appropriate asset management system and differences between asset management systems in transmission and distribution systems are discussed. The bulk of costs in electrical grids can be found in costs for maintenance and capital depreciation. A comprehensive approach for an asset management in transmission systems thus focuses on the 'life-cycle costs' of the individual equipment. The objective of the life management process is the optimal utilisation of the remaining life time regarding a given reliability of service and a constant distribution of costs for reinvestment and maintenance ensuring a suitable return. In distribution systems the high number of components would require an enormous effort for the consideration of single individuals. Therefore statistical approaches have been used successfully in practical applications. Newest insights gained by a German research project on asset management systems in distribution grids give an outlook to future developments. (author)
An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knittel, C.R.; Roberts, M.R.
2005-01-01
We present an empirical analysis of restructured electricity prices. We study the distributional and temporal properties of the price process in a non-parametric framework, after which we parametrically model the price process using several common asset price specifications from the asset-pricing literature, as well as several less conventional models motivated by the peculiarities of electricity prices. The findings reveal several characteristics unique to electricity prices including several deterministic components of the price series at different frequencies. An 'inverse leverage effect' is also found, where positive shocks to the price series result in larger increases in volatility than negative shocks. We find that forecasting performance in dramatically improved when we incorporate features of electricity prices not commonly modelled in other asset prices. Our findings have implications for how empiricists model electricity prices, as well as how theorists specify models of energy pricing. (author)
Hellsten, Erik; Chu, Scally; Crump, R Trafford; Yu, Kevin; Sutherland, Jason M
2016-03-01
Develop pricing models for bundled payments that draw inputs from clinician-defined best practice standards and benchmarks set from regional variations in utilization. Health care utilization and claims data for a cohort of incident Ontario ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke episodes. Episodes of care are created by linking incident stroke hospitalizations with subsequent health service utilization across multiple datasets. Costs are estimated for episodes of care and constituent service components using setting-specific case mix methodologies and provincial fee schedules. Costs are estimated for five areas of potentially avoidable utilization, derived from best practice standards set by an expert panel of stroke clinicians. Alternative approaches for setting normative prices for stroke episodes are developed using measures of potentially avoidable utilization and benchmarks established by the best performing regions. There are wide regional variations in the utilization of different health services within episodes of stroke care. Reconciling the best practice standards with regional utilization identifies significant amounts of potentially avoidable utilization. Normative pricing models for stroke episodes result in increasingly aggressive redistributions of funding. Bundled payment pilots to date have been based on the costs of historical service patterns, which effectively 'bake in' unwarranted and inefficient variations in utilization. This study demonstrates the feasibility of novel clinically informed episode pricing approaches that leverage these variations to target reductions in potentially avoidable utilization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: a behavioral economics approach.
Smith, Tracy T; Sved, Alan F; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Donny, Eric C
2014-11-01
Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price=cost/reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking-an assumption made by the unit price approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Geressu, Robel; Harou, Julien
2015-04-01
Water use rights are disputed in many transboundary basins. Even when water projects can benefit all, agreeing on cost and benefit sharing can be difficult where stakeholders have conflicting preferences on the designs and use of proposed water infrastructures. This study suggests a combination of many objective optimization and multi-criteria ranking methods to support negotiations regarding designs of new assets. The method allows competing users to assess development options based on their individual perspectives and agree on designs by incorporating coordination strategies into multi-reservoir system designs. We demonstrate a hypothetical negotiation on proposed Blue Nile reservoirs. The result form a set of Pareto-optimal designs i.e., reservoirs, storage capacity and their operating rules, and power trade, cost sharing and/or financing coordination strategies, which maximize benefit to all countries and show which trade-offs are implied by which designs. The approach fulfils decision-maker's desire to understand a) the critical design parameters that affect various objectives and b) how coordination mechanisms would enable them to incur benefits from proposed new dams.
Schoemaker, M.J.R.; Jonker, J.
2005-01-01
- Purpose – To develop a concept of managing intangible assets in contemporary organisations. Insight is given into the rise of the network organisation and the importance of talent, social capital and identity in this kind of organisation. - Design/methodology/approach – This paper develops a
Pricing Liquidity Risk with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons
Beber, Alessandro; Driessen, Joost; Neuberger, A.; Tuijp, P
We develop an asset pricing model with stochastic transaction costs and investors with heterogeneous horizons. Depending on their horizon, investors hold different sets of assets in equilibrium. This generates segmentation and spillover effects for expected returns, where the liquidity (risk)
Money illusion and nominal inertia in experimental asset markets
Noussair, C.N.; Richter, G.; Tyran, J.R.
2012-01-01
We test whether large but purely nominal shocks affect real asset market prices. We subject a laboratory asset market to an exogenous shock, which either inflates or deflates the nominal fundamental value of the asset while holding the real fundamental value constant. After an inflationary shock,
Money Illusion and Nominal Inertia in Experimental Asset Markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Noussair, Charles N.; Richter, Gregers; Tyran, Jean-Robert
We test whether large but purely nominal shocks affect real asset market prices. We subject a laboratory asset market to an exogenous shock, which either inflates or deflates the nominal fundamental value of the asset, while holding the real fundamental value constant. After an inflationary shock...
Lya Aklimawati; Teguh Wahyudi
2013-01-01
High volatility cocoa price movement is consequenced by imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in the international commerce. Dynamic prices moving erratically influence the benefit of market players, particularly producers. The aim of this research is (1) to estimate the empirical cocoa prices model for responding market dynamics and (2) ...
Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen
2007-01-01
We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)
Determining Optimal Crude Oil Price Benchmark in Nigeria: An Empirical Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saibu Olufemi Muibi
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper contributes to on-going empirical search for an appropriate crude oil price benchmark that ensures greater financial stability and efficient fiscal management in Nigeria. It adopted the seasonally adjusted ARIMA forecasting models using monthly data series from 2000m01 to 2012m12 to predict future movement in Nigeria crude oil prices. The paper derived a more robust and dynamic framework that accommodates fluctuation in crude oil price and also in government spending. The result shows that if the incessant withdrawal from the ECA fund and the increasing debt profile of government in recent times are factored into the benchmark, the real crude oil numerical fiscal rule is (US$82.3 for 2013 which is higher than the official benchmark of $75 used for 2013 and 2014 budget proposal. The paper argues that the current long run price rule based on 5-10 year moving average approach adopted by government is rigid and inflexible as a rule for managing Nigerian oil funds. The unrealistic assumption of the extant benchmark accounted for excessive depletion and lack of accountability of the excess crude oil account. The paper concludes that except the federal government can curtail its spending profligacy and adopts a more stringent fiscal discipline rules, the current benchmark is unrealistic and unsuitable for fiscal management of oil revenue in the context of Nigerian economic spending profile.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Riegels, Niels; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Doulgeris, Charalampos
2013-01-01
management objectives. However, the design and implementation of economic instruments for water management, including water pricing, has emerged as a challenging aspect of WFD implementation. This study demonstrates the use of a systems analysis approach to designing and comparing two economic approaches......Economic theory suggests that water pricing can contribute to efficient management of water scarcity. The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) is a major legislative effort to introduce the use of economic instruments to encourage efficient water use and achieve environmental...... to efficient management of groundwater and surface water given EU WFD ecological flow requirements. Under the first approach, all wholesale water users in a river basin face the same volumetric price for water. This water price does not vary in space or in time, and surface water and groundwater are priced...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyun No Kim
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The implementation of government policy can have an influence on market environment and market prices of pork in consequence. In South Korea, consumers prefer high-fat pork cuts due to the prevalence of roosting pork over a hot grill. This paper examines the impact of the government policy which aims to increase the consumption of low-fat pork cuts because of the concerns regarding asymmetric consumption between high-fat and low-fat pork cuts. Using hedonic price methods combined with quasi-experimental approaches we estimate the subsequent impact of food policy on the price of low-fat pork cuts using a time series of sales data. This study utilized an effective approach which has been widely employed for policy evaluation to produce plausible estimates of the economic values generated by the government policy. We find the existence of market segmentation and different impacts of the policy between markets. While the market price for high-fat pork cuts has remained stable, the price for low-fat pork cuts has slightly increased since the policy has been implemented. This paper illustrates that government’s policy can be a good strategy to maintain sustainability of the food industry by improving the balance in pork consumption and the management of stocks.
Game theory approach to use of non-commercial power plants under time-of-use pricing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maeda, A.; Kaya, Y.
1992-01-01
There has been much research done on pricing theories for electric power utilities study. This paper employs the game theory approach for evaluating the impact of the introduction of customer owned NCP upon the pricing process when TOUP is used. We have derived various interesting results from this analysis some of which are; the conflict between NCP customers and the supplier forces the supplier to reduce the price for NCP customers, also perception of the situation in which they are involved plays an important role in this conflict. The game model analysis presented in this paper provides us detailed quantitative information on electricity prices and on the ways of using NCP
Perera, Irosha; Ekanayake, Lilani
2010-10-01
The aim of the study was to assess the value of different indicators of socioeconomic status for oral health research among Sri Lankan adolescents. Six indicators of socioeconomic status were assessed in terms of their relationship to 2 oral health outcomes. The sample consisted of 15-year-old students (n = 1218) selected from 48 schools in the Colombo district using a stratified cluster sampling technique. Data collection included oral examinations of students and questionnaires to both students and their parents. The correlations between the 6 indicators were low to moderate. The indicators of household material assets and parental educational status emerged as significant predictors of the 2 oral health outcomes. Therefore, it is concluded that indicators of material assets-namely, the family affluence scale and the asset index-could be used as optimal measures of socioeconomic status in oral health research among adolescents in Sri Lanka.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Sooill; Kim, Yong Sik; Moon, Insun; Lee, Euijong [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
This paper introduces a security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence through an asset and risk analysis to manage the security levels in operating NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). Whereas, those are being exposed to various types of new and existing cyber threats, vulnerabilities and risks which significantly increase the likelihood that those could be compromised. U.S. NRC(United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and KINAC(Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation And Control) request the cyber security plan by establishing the cyber security program through assessing and managing the potential for adverse effect on safety, security and emergency preparedness functions so as to provide high assurance that critical functions are properly protected from the cyber-attack. This paper shows the security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence. It could lead to manage the security levels consistent with the purpose of defense in- depth strategy based on regulatory rule as well as internal risk-based self-assessment. Also, this management of the security level may make effect of encouraging the installation of high ranked countermeasures in order to rapidly increase the security level. Proposed approach could be conducted for the pilot test on the model plants with each reactor type of operating NPPs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Sooill; Kim, Yong Sik; Moon, Insun; Lee, Euijong
2016-01-01
This paper introduces a security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence through an asset and risk analysis to manage the security levels in operating NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). Whereas, those are being exposed to various types of new and existing cyber threats, vulnerabilities and risks which significantly increase the likelihood that those could be compromised. U.S. NRC(United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and KINAC(Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation And Control) request the cyber security plan by establishing the cyber security program through assessing and managing the potential for adverse effect on safety, security and emergency preparedness functions so as to provide high assurance that critical functions are properly protected from the cyber-attack. This paper shows the security assessment approach with graded importance score of security controls and the asset consequence. It could lead to manage the security levels consistent with the purpose of defense in- depth strategy based on regulatory rule as well as internal risk-based self-assessment. Also, this management of the security level may make effect of encouraging the installation of high ranked countermeasures in order to rapidly increase the security level. Proposed approach could be conducted for the pilot test on the model plants with each reactor type of operating NPPs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Reza Rostami
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Systematic risk (beta is one of the most effective factors in predicting the appropriate required rate of return of portfolios. Understanding systematic risk of usual portfolio of various companies helps investors consider financial investment, more confidentially. The aim of this study is to determine if there is any significant relationship between Company Size (Market value of stocks, Book value of stocks, level of company sale, trade volume of stocks, Price dividend ratio as independent variables and Systematic risk (Beta as dependent variables. The study chooses 112 companies accepted in Tehran Stock Market based on screening (systematic deletion in a six-year- period from 2005 to 2010. The required data were gathered from basic financial statement, committee reports, and other available documents in Tehran Stock Market. Regression and Pearson correlation were used to analyze the data. The results of the study revealed that there is a significant relationship between the variables. Some suggestions regarding the topic of the research are given too.
Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade
Philippe Martin; Helene Rey
2001-01-01
This paper presents a new theoretical framework to analyze=20 financial markets in an international context. We build a two-country=20 macroeconomic model in which agents are risk averse, assets are imperfect=20 substitutes, the number of financial assets is endogenous, and cross-border= =20 asset trade entails transaction costs. We show that demand effects have=20 important implications for the link between market size, asset prices and=20 financial market development. These effects are cons...
Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade.
Philippe Martin and Hélène Rey.
2000-01-01
This paper presents a new theoretical framework to analyze financial markets in an international context. We build a two-country macroeconomic model in which agents are risk averse, assets are imperfect substitutes, the number of financial assets is endogenous, and cross-border asset trade entails transaction costs. We show that demand effects have important implications for the link between market size, asset prices and financial market development. These effects are consistent with the exis...
Chiwaula, Levison S; Witt, Rudolf; Waibel, Hermann
2011-01-01
This paper analyses vulnerability to poverty of rural small-scale fishing communities using cross-section data from 295 households in Cameroon and 267 in Nigeria. We propose a vulnerability measure that incorporates the idea of asset poverty into the concept of expected poverty, which allows decomposing expected poverty into expected structural-chronic, structural-transient, and stochastic-transient poverty. The findings show that most households in our study areas are expected to be structurally-chronic and structurally-transient poor. This underlines the importance of asset formation for long-term poverty reduction strategies. Further refinements are possible with longitudinal data and information about future states of nature.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Zibin; Cai, Wenxin; Feng, Xiangzhao
2017-01-01
China is the largest electricity consumption country after it has passed the United States in 2011. Residential electricity consumption in China grew by 381.35% (12.85% per annum) between 2000 and 2013. In order to deal with rapid growth in residential electricity consumption, an increasing block pricing policy was introduced for residential electricity consumers in China on July 1st, 2012. Using difference-in-differences models with a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate a causal effect of price on electricity consumption for urban households during the introduction of increasing block pricing policy in Guangdong province of China. We find that consumers do not respond to a smaller (approximately 8%) increase in marginal price. However, consumers do respond to a larger increase in marginal price. An approximately 40% increase in marginal price induces an approximately 35% decrease in electricity use (284 kW h per month). Our results suggest that although the increasing block pricing could affect the behavior of households with higher electricity use, there is only a limit potential to overall energy conservation. - Highlights: • Estimate electricity consumption changes in response to the IBP in China. • Employ quasi-experimental approach and micro household level data in China. • Households do not respond to a smaller increase in marginal price. • 40% increase in marginal price induces a 35% decrease in electricity use.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Perica Ilak
2014-04-01
Full Text Available This paper analyzes a price-taker hydro generating company which participates simultaneously in day-ahead energy and ancillary services markets. An approach for deriving marginal cost curves for energy and ancillary services is proposed, taking into consideration price uncertainty and opportunity cost of water, which can later be used to determine hourly bid curves. The proposed approach combines an hourly conditional value-at-risk, probability of occurrence of automatic generation control states and an opportunity cost of water to determine energy and ancillary services marginal cost curves. The proposed approach is in a linear constraint form and is easy to implement in optimization problems. A stochastic model of the hydro-economic river basin is presented, based on the actual Vinodol hydropower system in Croatia, with a complex three-dimensional relationship between the power produced, the discharged water, and the head of associated reservoir.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Balen Julie
2010-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background There are growing concerns regarding inequities in health, with poverty being an important determinant of health as well as a product of health status. Within the People's Republic of China (P.R. China, disparities in socio-economic position are apparent, with the rural-urban gap of particular concern. Our aim was to compare direct and proxy methods of estimating household wealth in a rural and a peri-urban setting of Hunan province, P.R. China. Methods We collected data on ownership of household durable assets, housing characteristics, and utility and sanitation variables in two village-wide surveys in Hunan province. We employed principal components analysis (PCA and principal axis factoring (PAF to generate household asset-based proxy wealth indices. Households were grouped into quartiles, from 'most wealthy' to 'most poor'. We compared the estimated household wealth for each approach. Asset-based proxy wealth indices were compared to those based on self-reported average annual income and savings at the household level. Results Spearman's rank correlation analysis revealed that PCA and PAF yielded similar results, indicating that either approach may be used for estimating household wealth. In both settings investigated, the two indices were significantly associated with self-reported average annual income and combined income and savings, but not with savings alone. However, low correlation coefficients between the proxy and direct measures of wealth indicated that they are not complementary. We found wide disparities in ownership of household durable assets, and utility and sanitation variables, within and between settings. Conclusion PCA and PAF yielded almost identical results and generated robust proxy wealth indices and categories. Pooled data from the rural and peri-urban settings highlighted structural differences in wealth, most likely a result of localized urbanization and modernization. Further research is needed
Problems of intangible assets commercialization accounting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.F. Legenchyk
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The growing role of intangible assets in conditions of global economy postindustrialization is grounded. The problems of intangible assets accounting are singled out. The basic tasks of the intangible assets accounting commercialization process are determined. The difference between the commercialization of intellectual property and intangible assets is considered. The basic approaches to understanding the essence of the intangible assets commercialization are singled out and grounded. The basic forms and methods of intangible assets commercialization researched by the author are analyzed. The order of accounting reflection of licensee royalties is considered. The factors of influence on the accounting process of intangible assets commercialization are determined. The necessity of solving the problem of accounting of lease payments for computer program by providing access to SaaS environment is grounded. The prospects of further studies of intangible assets accounting commercialization are determined.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pollitt, Michael
2005-01-01
Electricity regulators around the world make use of efficiency analysis (or benchmarking) to produce estimates of the likely amount of cost reduction which regulated electric utilities can achieve. This short paper examines the use of such efficiency estimates by the UK electricity regulator (Ofgem) within electricity distribution and transmission price reviews. It highlights the place of efficiency analysis within the calculation of X factors. We suggest a number of problems with the current approach and make suggestions for the future development of X factor setting. (author)
Exploiting Flexibility in Coupled Electricity and Natural Gas Markets: A Price-Based Approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ordoudis, Christos; Delikaraoglou, Stefanos; Pinson, Pierre
2017-01-01
Natural gas-fired power plants (NGFPPs) are considered a highly flexible component of the energy system and can facilitate the large-scale integration of intermittent renewable generation. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the coordination between electric power and natural gas systems....... Considering a market-based coupling of these systems, we introduce a decision support tool that increases market efficiency in the current setup where day-ahead and balancing markets are cleared sequentially. The proposed approach relies on the optimal adjustment of natural gas price to modify the scheduling...
Dranitsaris, George; Ortega, Ana; Lubbe, Martie S; Truter, Ilse
2012-03-01
Several European governments have recently mandated price cuts in drugs to reduce health care spending. However, such measures without supportive evidence may compromise patient care because manufacturers may withdraw current products or not launch new agents. A value-based pricing scheme may be a better approach for determining a fair drug price and may be a medium for negotiations between the key stakeholders. To demonstrate this approach, pharmacoeconomic (PE) modeling was used from the Spanish health care system perspective to estimate a value-based price for bevacizumab, a drug that provides a 1.4-month survival benefit to patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The threshold used for economic value was three times the Spanish per capita GDP, as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). A PE model was developed to simulate outcomes in mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy ± bevacizumab. Clinical data were obtained from randomized trials and costs from a Spanish hospital. Utility estimates were determined by interviewing 24 Spanish oncology nurses and pharmacists. A price per dose of bevacizumab was then estimated using a target threshold of € 78,300 per quality-adjusted life year gained, which is three times the Spanish per capita GDP. For a 1.4-month survival benefit, a price of € 342 per dose would be considered cost effective from the Spanish public health care perspective. The price may be increased to € 733 or € 843 per dose if the drug were able to improve patient quality of life or enhance survival from 1.4 to 3 months. This study demonstrated that a value-based pricing approach using PE modeling and the WHO criteria for economic value is feasible and perhaps a better alternative to government mandated price cuts. The former approach would be a good starting point for opening dialog between European government payers and the pharmaceutical industry.
What have we learned from asset sales?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Falk, J.
1999-01-01
The author has created a database of 33 sales of generating assets and has the characteristics of those sales to estimate the value of generating assets. The authors conclusion so far is negative: the sales observed to date have varied so widely in characteristics and price that observed sales data cannot be usefully employed to forecast with any reliability the price at which some other asset is likely to sell in a subsequent auction. The author concludes this does not mean that the auction method is in any way inferior to an administrative method for determining stranded costs. It simply means that there are at present no reliable inferences which can be drawn from this process to inform the administrative process. While this situation might change as more and more assets are auctioned, there are reasons to think that this may not be the case
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hirano, M [Department of Reactor Safety Research, Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst. (Japan)
1997-10-01
The presentation briefly reviews the following aspects directed to ensuring NPP safety: Japanese participation in ASSET activities; views to ASSET activities; recent operating experience in Japan; future ASSET activities.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirano, M.
1997-01-01
The presentation briefly reviews the following aspects directed to ensuring NPP safety: Japanese participation in ASSET activities; views to ASSET activities; recent operating experience in Japan; future ASSET activities
The valuation of health care intangible assets.
Reilly, R F; Rabe, J R
1997-01-01
Health care entities (and especially medical practices) are valued for a number of reasons: sale transaction pricing and structuring, merger formation and dissolution, taxation and regulatory compliance, and litigation support and dispute resolution. The identification and quantification of the entity's intangible assets are often the most important aspects of the valuation. This article illustrates the generally accepted methods for valuing health care-related intangible assets.
Accounting of Long-Term Biological Assets
Valeriy Mossakovskyy; Vasyl Korytnyy
2015-01-01
The article is devoted to generalization of experience in valuation of long-term biological assets of plant-growing and animal-breeding, and preparation of suggestions concerning improvement of accounting in this field. Recommendations concerning accounting of such assets are given based on the study of accounting practice at specific agricultural company during long period of time. Authors believe that fair value is applicable only if price level for agricultural products is fixed by the gov...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Taylor, Colin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hedman, Bruce [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Goldberg, Amelie [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2015-12-01
Effects (DRIPE) as a real, quantifiable benefit of energy efficiency and demand response programs. DRIPE is a measurement of the value of demand reductions in terms of the decrease in wholesale energy prices, resulting in lower total expenditures on electricity or natural gas across a given grid. Crucially for policymakers and consumer advocates, DRIPE savings accrue not only to the subset of customers who consume less, but to all consumers. Rate-paying customers realize DRIPE savings when price reductions across an electricity or natural gas system are passed on to all retail customers as lower rates (depending upon regulation and market structure, residual savings may be wholly or partially retained by utilities). DRIPE savings, though seemingly small in terms of percent price reductions or dollars per household, can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars per year across entire states or grids. Therefore, accurately assessing DRIPE benefits can help to ensure appropriate programs are designed and implemented for energy efficiency measures. This paper reviews the existing knowledge and experience from select U.S. states regarding DRIPE (including New York and Ohio), and the potential for expanded application of the concept of DRIPE by regulators. Policymakers and public utility commissions have a critical role to play in setting the methodology for determining DRIPE, encouraging its capture by utilities, and allocating DRIPE benefits among utilities, various groups of customers, and/or society at large. While the methodologies for estimating DRIPE benefits are still being perfected, policymakers can follow the examples of states such as Maryland and Vermont in including conservative DRIPE estimates in their resource planning.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thoranin Sujjaviriyasup
2018-02-01
Full Text Available In this research, a combined approach emphasizing on data pre-processing technique is developed to forecast prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand. The future prices play significant role in decision making to cultivate crops in next year. The proposed model takes ability of MODWT to decompose original time series data into more stable and explicit subseries, and SVR model to formulate complex function of forecasting. The experimental results indicated that the proposed model outperforms traditional forecasting models based on MAE and MAPE criteria. Furthermore, the proposed model reveals that it is able to be a useful forecasting tool for prices of agricultural commodities in Thailand
Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach
Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania
2015-10-01
In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.
Ensemble ANNs-PSO-GA Approach for Day-ahead Stock E-exchange Prices Forecasting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi Xiao
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Stock e-exchange prices forecasting is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. This study proposes a novel three-stage nonlinear ensemble model. In the proposed model, three different types of neural-network based models, i.e. Elman network, generalized regression neural network (GRNN and wavelet neural network (WNN are constructed by three non-overlapping training sets and are further optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO. Finally, a neural-network-based nonlinear meta-model is generated by learning three neural-network based models through support vector machines (SVM neural network. The superiority of the proposed approach lies in its flexibility to account for potentially complex nonlinear relationships. Three daily stock indices time series are used for validating the forecasting model. Empirical results suggest the ensemble ANNs-PSO-GA approach can significantly improve the prediction performance over other individual models and linear combination models listed in this study.
Challenging the myths: the mid-stream asset provider's view
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Findlay, R.
1996-01-01
The term 'mid-stream asset business' implies custom processing and gathering, meaning that a gas producer sells his gas at the wellhead, thereby transferring the business of gathering, processing and marketing of the gas and liquids to a third party. The concept is popular in the United States, but is not yet common in Canada. In Canada, producers own the gas gathering and processing systems. The mid-stream asset business was claimed to be more user friendly than the old custom processing business. Three myths about the mid-stream asset business were challenged: (1) all the risk is on the producer, the processor takes no risk, (2) the mid-stream asset business is an expensive means of financing further exploration, and (3) owning and operating gathering and processing facilities is an integral part of a producer's business. Arguments were brought forth to dispel these myths and to emphasize that a processor should be prepared to accept risks associated with the commodity, prices, production and operations. To be operationally effective, the producer's flexibility and strategic advantages must approach the same level as if he were the owner of the facility
Sticky continuous processes have consistent price systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bender, Christian; Pakkanen, Mikko; Sayit, Hasanjan
Under proportional transaction costs, a price process is said to have a consistent price system, if there is a semimartingale with an equivalent martingale measure that evolves within the bid-ask spread. We show that a continuous, multi-asset price process has a consistent price system, under...
Stock Market Effects of ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Henseler, Kai; Rapp, Marc Steffen
2018-01-01
How do stock prices react to ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes? Using an event-study approach, we find substantial cross-sectional variation in a sample of 2625 non-financial firms in the Euro-zone. Announcement returns are positively correlated with leverage and negatively with size, consistent...... with a credit channel. Furthermore, announcement returns are negatively correlated with the market-to-book ratio, suggesting different exposures of value and growth stocks. These patterns are more pronounced once we only examine programme initiation announcements....
Stock Market Effects of ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Henseler, Kai; Rapp, Marc Steffen
2018-01-01
How do stock prices react to ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes? Using an event-study approach, we find substantial cross-sectional variation in a sample of 2625 non-financial firms in the Euro-zone. Announcement returns are positively correlated with leverage and negatively with size, consistent wi...... with a credit channel. Furthermore, announcement returns are negatively correlated with the market-to-book ratio, suggesting different exposures of value and growth stocks. These patterns are more pronounced once we only examine programme initiation announcements....
Detecting change points in VIX and S&P 500: A new approach to dynamic asset allocation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nystrup, Peter; Hansen, Bo William; Madsen, Henrik
2016-01-01
to DAA that is based on detection of change points without fitting a model with a fixed number of regimes to the data, without estimating any parameters and without assuming a specific distribution of the data. It is examined whether DAA is most profitable when based on changes in the Chicago Board...... Options Exchange Volatility Index or change points detected in daily returns of the S&P 500 index. In an asset universe consisting of the S&P 500 index and cash, it is shown that a dynamic strategy based on detected change points significantly improves the Sharpe ratio and reduces the drawdown risk when...
Pricing of Asian temperature risk
Benth, Fred; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; López Cabrera, Brenda
2009-01-01
Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used to price and hedge weather futures/options in the market. The majority of papers so far have priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption underestimates WD prices. We study the MP...
Aggregated Marcoeconomic News and Price Discovery
J. Brazys (Justinas)
2015-01-01
markdownabstract__Abstract__ Is there a link between asset prices and economic fundamentals? Many studies fail to find a convincing link and conclude that asset prices and economic fundamentals are disconnected. A famous example of the disconnect between exchange rates and macroeconomic
A Technical Analysis Information Fusion Approach for Stock Price Analysis and Modeling
Lahmiri, Salim
In this paper, we address the problem of technical analysis information fusion in improving stock market index-level prediction. We present an approach for analyzing stock market price behavior based on different categories of technical analysis metrics and a multiple predictive system. Each category of technical analysis measures is used to characterize stock market price movements. The presented predictive system is based on an ensemble of neural networks (NN) coupled with particle swarm intelligence for parameter optimization where each single neural network is trained with a specific category of technical analysis measures. The experimental evaluation on three international stock market indices and three individual stocks show that the presented ensemble-based technical indicators fusion system significantly improves forecasting accuracy in comparison with single NN. Also, it outperforms the classical neural network trained with index-level lagged values and NN trained with stationary wavelet transform details and approximation coefficients. As a result, technical information fusion in NN ensemble architecture helps improving prediction accuracy.
Asset management techniques for transformers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abu-Elanien, Ahmed E.B.; Salama, M.M.A.
2010-01-01
In a deregulated/reformed environment, the electric utilities are under constant pressure for reducing operating costs, enhancing the reliability of transmission and distribution equipments, and improving quality of power and services to the customer. Moreover, the risk involved in running the system without proper attention to assets integrity in service is quite high. Additionally, the probability of losing any equipment vital to the transmission and distribution system, such as power and distribution transformers, is increasing especially with the aging of power system's assets. Today the focus of operating the power system is changed and efforts are being directed to explore new approaches/techniques of monitoring, diagnosis, condition evaluation, maintenance, life assessment, and possibility of extending the life of existing assets. In this paper, a comprehensive illustration of the transformer asset management activities is presented. The importance of each activity together with the latest researches done in the area is highlighted. (author)
SUCIU Titus
2013-01-01
In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...
Testing option pricing with the Edgeworth expansion
Balieiro Filho, Ruy Gabriel; Rosenfeld, Rogerio
2004-12-01
There is a well-developed framework, the Black-Scholes theory, for the pricing of contracts based on the future prices of certain assets, called options. This theory assumes that the probability distribution of the returns of the underlying asset is a Gaussian distribution. However, it is observed in the market that this hypothesis is flawed, leading to the introduction of a fudge factor, the so-called volatility smile. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore extensions of the Black-Scholes theory to non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we provide an explicit formula for the price of an option when the distributions of the returns of the underlying asset is parametrized by an Edgeworth expansion, which allows for the introduction of higher independent moments of the probability distribution, namely skewness and kurtosis. We test our formula with options in the Brazilian and American markets, showing that the volatility smile can be reduced. We also check whether our approach leads to more efficient hedging strategies of these instruments.
Double hedge aids commercial terms of upstream asset purchase
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wood, D.
1993-01-01
In recent years many major oil companies have elected to rationalize their producing assets. Mature production--particularly onshore in developed countries, associated with high costs and small profit margins--has been the major target. The current weakness in oil prices has resulted in many such properties being on the market. However, much production marginal to a major can be highly profitable to a cost-effective independent, particularly if the production fits strategically with the independent's asset portfolio. Although many independents recognize that some of the producing assets on the market could be of potential value to them, in a period of volatile prices two important valuations have to be technically justified and negotiated to enable or persuade them to conclude a purchase agreement for a specific asset. These are: A purchase value for an asset that is acceptable to both seller and buyer; and A loan value for the asset to establish the level of debt that the asset can support for the buyer. In defining these two important values (both of which are usually established as ranges rather than single values) the independent has to protect itself against a downturn in commodity prices and exposing itself to an unserviceable level of debt. The paper discusses reducing risks, purchase price hedge, an example of a hedged purchase price, price elements, loan value analysis, agreement structure, loan value hedge, and an example of a hedged loan value
Aktham I. Maghyereh; Haitham A. Al Zoubi; Haitham Nobanee
2007-01-01
We reexamine the effects of price limits on stock volatility of Taiwan Stock Exchange using a new methodology based on the Extreme-Value technique. Consistent with the advocates of price limits, we find that stock market volatility is sharply moderated under more restrictive price limits.
Essays on Asset Pricing with Financial Frictions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Klingler, Sven
The first essay focuses on Credit default swap (CDS) premiums of safe sovereigns, that is, the insurance against the default of countries with a low credit risk, like Germany, Japan, or the United States. We motivate the essay by establishing the following two stylized facts. First, we document...... insurance against the default of safe sovereigns? Second, what drives safe-haven CDS premiums if not credit risk?...... between bond yield and risk-free rate, for safe sovereigns. This finding is in opposition to the no-arbitrage theory that CDS premiums and yield spreads should move in lockstep. Motivated by these stylized facts, we investigate the following two questions: First, what are the motives behind purchasing...
A skewed distribution with asset pricing applications
de Roon, Frans; Karehnke, P.
2017-01-01
Recent research has identified skewness and downside risk as one of the most important features of risk. We present a new distribution which makes modeling skewed risks no more difficult than normally distributed (symmetric) risks. Our distribution is a combination of the “downside” and “upside”
Tax Avoidance, Welfare Transfers, and Asset Prices
Denis Gorea
2013-01-01
Does tax avoidance have any implications for financial markets? This paper quantifies the general equilibrium implications of tax avoidance by setting up an incomplete markets production economy model in which households pay capital gains taxes and have access to tax avoidance technologies provided by financial institutions. I find that changes in the level of tax avoidance have disproportionate effects on different groups of agents and generally benefit the old, wealthy and high income house...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Galarraga, Ibon, E-mail: ibon.galarraga@bc3research.org; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, E-mail: mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org; Markandya, Anil, E-mail: anil.markandya@bc3research.org
2011-12-15
This article proposes a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for the attributes represented by energy efficiency labels and providing reliable price elasticities of demand (own and cross) for close substitutes (e.g. those with low energy efficiency and those with higher energy efficiency). This is done by using the results of the hedonic approach together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. The elasticity results obtained with the latter are then compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain: it is found that 15.6% of the final price is actually paid for the energy efficiency attribute. This accounts for about Euro 80 of the average market price. The elasticity results confirm that energy efficient appliances are more price elastic than regular ones. - Highlights: > The article shows a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for energy efficiency labels and price elasticities. > The results of the hedonic approach is used together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. > The elasticity results are compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). > The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain.
Approach of optimum cross-section choice for cable lines in market prices conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guseva, S.; Petrichenko, L.
2012-01-01
In this paper an approach for choosing the optimum cross section for cable lines in conditions of incomplete and uncertain information is considered. The existing method economic current's density has the disadvantages connected with the assumptions and the lack of reliable information. In the work the modification of the economic intervals' method is offered under market conditions of prices. The method is based on search of minimum total annual costs for lines' construction. As example, 20, 110, 330 kV cable lines with copper vein are selected. Economic nomograms with different standard cross-sections are calculated and constructed for practical using of method. The choice of cross-sections by economic considerations is actual and for modern market conditions of economy. The graphics using MathCAD software are offered. (Authors)
Tames Blanco, Juan Marcelo; Nsiah, Samuel Osei
2010-01-01
The purpose of this thesis is to perform event studies that determine the level of efficiency of twenty-two large cap stocks from the OMXS30 Index. Under the event study methodology, analysts’ expectations, the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model and a set of parametric tests are implemented. As a result, significant evidence is found on the existence of intraday abnormal returns at the exact moment of an interim report publication. However, further evidence on market corrections state effic...
R.P. Faber (Riemer)
2010-01-01
textabstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects of price setting. First, it studies whether the existence of a suggested price has a coordinating effect on the prices of firms.
On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Joets, Marc
2013-12-01
The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the price of oil and a large dataset of commodity prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel co-integration tests, our findings show that the WTI and commodity prices are not linked in the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we show that short-run relations exist, mainly from the price of crude oil to commodity prices. We thus implement a panel VAR estimation with an impulse response function analysis. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) fast co-movements are highlighted, while (ii) market efficiency is emphasized. (authors)
Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets
Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio
2015-01-01
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.
Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer
2006-01-01
The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Saeed Khalili
2014-08-01
Full Text Available In the past, different methods for asset depreciation have been defined but most of these procedures deal with certain parameters and inputs. The availability of certain parameters in many real world situations is difficult and sometimes impossible. The primary objective of this paper is to obtain methods for calculating depreciation where some of the defined parameters are under uncertainty. Hence, by using the fuzzy science basics, extension principle and α-cut technique, we rewrite some classic methods for calculating depreciation in fuzzy form. Then, for comparing the methods of fuzzy depreciation under uncertain conditions by using the formula of calculating the Fuzzy Present worth (FPW, the Present worth of Tax saving (PWTS of any aforementioned methods has been obtained. Finally, since the amount of tax savings achieved for each of the methods is a fuzzy number, one of the fuzzy prioritization methods is used in order to select the best depreciation technique.
Asset management trends and challenges
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rijks, E. [Continuon, Arnhem (Netherlands); Ford, G.L. [PowerNex Associates Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada); Sanchis, G. [Reseau de Transport d' Electricite, Paris (France)
2007-07-01
Recent business and regulatory changes in the electric power industry have affected the operation of electric utilities. Most have accepted competition and commercialization. Various strategies have emerged as companies strive to improve performance and retain profitability in an environment where competition or regulatory pressure is reducing revenues at a time when customer expectation is increasing. As focus shifts away from engineering excellence towards commercial performance, the new business ideology for electric utilities is to optimize asset management. This paper identified asset management technology trends, opportunities and challenges. Although many utilities are currently comfortable with their existing asset management processes, regulators are increasingly scrutinizing utilities as they seek approval for rates and investments in aging infrastructure. Much more rigorous financial analysis methods are needed to justify the large investments that are needed. In addition, the credibility of the processes and methods used by utilities will be increasingly questioned. In recognition of the growing importance of asset management, several initiatives have been launched to provide forums for sharing information and to provide a unifying force to asset management methods. The International Council on Large Electric Systems (CIGRE) was one of the first to recognize the importance of asset management. This paper summarized recent CIGRE activities as well as the developments of publicly available specification (PAS) 55 in the United Kingdom. It was concluded that utilities that adopt standardized approaches will be more credible in the eyes of regulatory authorities. 3 refs., 4 figs.
The CAPM approach to materiality
Hadjieftychiou, Aristarchos
1993-01-01
Materiality is a pervasive accounting concept that has defied a precise quantitative definition. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) approach to materiality provides a means for determining the limits that bound materiality. Also, the approach makes it possible to locate the point estimate within these limits based on certain assumptions.
Numeraire Invariance and application to Option Pricing and Hedging
Jamshidian, F.; Vanmaele, Michèle; Deelstra, Griselda; De Schepper, Ann; Dhaene, Jan; Reynaerts, Huguette; Schoutens, Wim; Van Goethem, Paul
2008-01-01
Numeraire invariance is a well-known technique in option pricing and hedging theory. It takes a convenient asset as the numeraire, as if it were the medium of exchange, and expresses all other asset and option prices in units of this numeraire. Since the price of the numeraire relative to itself is
Weng, Geng; Han, Sheng; Pu, Run; Pan, Wynn H T; Shi, Luwen
2014-01-01
Under the circumstance of the New Medical Reform in Mainland of China, lowering drug prices has become an approach to relieving increase of medical expenses, and lowering brand-name medication price is a key strategy. This study, by comparing and analyzing brand-name medication prices between Mainland of China and Taiwan, explores how to adjust brand-name medication prices in Mainland of China in the consideration of the drug administrative strategies in Taiwan. By selecting brand-name drug with generic name and dose types matched in Mainland and Taiwan, calculate the average unit price and standard deviation and test it with the paired t-test. In the mean time, drug administrative strategies between Mainland and Taiwan are also compared systematically. Among the 70 brand-name medications with generic names and matched dose types, 54 are at higher prices in Mainland of China than Taiwan, which is statistically significant in t-test. Also, among the 47 medications with all of matched generic names, dose types, and manufacturing enterprises, 38 are at higher prices in Mainland than Taiwan, and the gap is also statistically significant in t-test. In Mainland of China, brand-name medication took cost-plus pricing and price-based price adjustment, while in Taiwan, brand-name medication took internal and external reference pricing and market-based price adjustment. Brand-name drug prices were higher in Mainland of China than in Taiwan. The adjustment strategies of drug prices are scientific in Taiwan and are worth reference by Mainland of China.
Do crypto-currencies form a new asset class?
Mayr, Samuel
2015-01-01
This paper examines statistical properties of crypto-currencies' price variations in comparison with statistical properties of price variations in common financial markets. Price data of Bitcoin, ripple and Litecoin have been directly compared with price data of euro currency and stock index S&P500. Additionally, and compared with set of stylized facts of asset returns. The properties in scope of this work include an autocorrelation of day-to-day returns, a shape of return distributions, a vo...
Penalty methods for the numerical solution of American multi-asset option problems
Nielsen, Bjørn Fredrik; Skavhaug, Ola; Tveito, Aslak
2008-12-01
We derive and analyze a penalty method for solving American multi-asset option problems. A small, non-linear penalty term is added to the Black-Scholes equation. This approach gives a fixed solution domain, removing the free and moving boundary imposed by the early exercise feature of the contract. Explicit, implicit and semi-implicit finite difference schemes are derived, and in the case of independent assets, we prove that the approximate option prices satisfy some basic properties of the American option problem. Several numerical experiments are carried out in order to investigate the performance of the schemes. We give examples indicating that our results are sharp. Finally, the experiments indicate that in the case of correlated underlying assets, the same properties are valid as in the independent case.
A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pircalabu, Anca; Benth, Fred Espen
2017-01-01
significant evidence of tail dependence in all pairs of interconnected areas we consider. As a first application of the proposed model, we consider the pricing of financial transmission rights, and highlight how the choice of marginal distributions and copula impacts prices. As a second application we......The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the joint behavior of prices in interconnected markets. In this paper we propose a regime-switching AR–GARCH copula...... to model pairs of day-ahead electricity prices in coupled European markets. While capturing key stylized facts empirically substantiated in the literature, this model easily allows us to 1) deviate from the assumption of normal margins and 2) include a more detailed description of the dependence between...
Goodwin, Barry K.; Holt, Matthew T.; Prestemon, Jeffery P.
2008-01-01
Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board (OSB) markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-a-vis the law of one price. Weekly data, February 3rd, 1995 through October 9th, 2009, are used in the analysis. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important features of these markets; price...
Price Reversal Pattern of ARV Drugs: A Transaction-Cost Approach Digression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frank LORNE
2015-05-01
Full Text Available A price reversal pattern of ARV drugs was noted across lower and middle income countries in that the lower-income countries have higher prices relative to higher-income countries based on a 2008-2009 Summary Report by World Health Organization. The transaction costs affecting AVR drug pricing can be broadly classified into two kinds: One between the final users and the opinion/knowledge experts, and the other between the opinion/knowledge experts and the manufacturers. Economist’s version of price discrimination needs to be modified by including transaction costs. Transaction costs also point to institution creditability factors that will affect NGO procurement.
Econometric models of power prices. An approach to market monitoring in the Western US
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barmack, Matthew; Kahn, Edward; Tierney, Susan; Goldman, Charles
2008-01-01
Given the limitations of data and resources available for market monitoring in electricity markets where regional transmission organizations (RTO) do not exist, we argue that econometric models of power prices could provide a useful screening tool for market monitoring. To explore its feasibility, we developed several econometric models of power prices at two major trading hubs in the West: Palo Verde and Mid-Columbia. We show that our models explain a large portion of the variation in power prices in Palo Verde and can establish a benchmark that can be used to identify outlier prices that are potentially the result of anti-competitive behavior. (author)
Pricing of medical devices under coverage uncertainty--a modelling approach.
Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry P
2012-12-01
Product vendors and manufacturers are increasingly aware that purchasers of health care will fund new clinical treatments only if they are perceived to deliver value-for-money. This influences companies' internal commercial decisions, including the price they set for their products. Other things being equal, there is a price threshold, which is the maximum price at which the device will be funded and which, if its value were known, would play a central role in price determination. This paper examines the problem of pricing a medical device from the vendor's point of view in the presence of uncertainty about what the price threshold will be. A formal solution is obtained by maximising the expected value of the net revenue function, assuming a Bayesian prior distribution for the price threshold. A least admissible price is identified. The model can also be used as a tool for analysing proposed pricing policies when no formal prior specification of uncertainty is available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Understanding international commodity price fluctuations
Arezki, Rabah; Loungani, Prakash; van der Ploeg, Rick; Venables, Anthony J.
An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking-a shorthand for the
Dukovany ASSET mission preparation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kouklik, I [NPP Dukovany (Czech Republic)
1997-12-31
We are in the final stages of the Dukovany ASSET mission 1996 preparation. I would like to present some of our recent experiences. Maybe they would be helpful to other plants, that host ASSET missions in future.
Dukovany ASSET mission preparation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kouklik, I.
1996-01-01
We are in the final stages of the Dukovany ASSET mission 1996 preparation. I would like to present some of our recent experiences. Maybe they would be helpful to other plants, that host ASSET missions in future
Xuan Chi; Barry Goodwin
2012-01-01
Spatial and temporal relationships among agricultural prices have been an important topic of applied research for many years. Such research is used to investigate the performance of markets and to examine linkages up and down the marketing chain. This research has empirically evaluated price linkages by using correlation and regression models and, later, linear and...
Canada's New Generic Pricing Policy: A Reasoned Approach to a Challenging Problem.
Hollis, Aidan; Grootendorst, Paul
2015-08-01
Alberta, quickly followed by other Canadian provinces, has introduced a new pricing model for generic drugs, in which prices are inversely related to the number of generic manufacturers of the drug. This paper examines the rationale for the new policy. Copyright © 2015 Longwoods Publishing.
Barry Goodwin; Matthew Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon
2011-01-01
Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-Ã -vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time-varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important...
Tuition Pricing and Aid Strategies: A Practical Approach. AIR 1994 Annual Forum Paper.
Fine, Paul L.
This paper examines the applicability of net tuition revenue models for a highly selective, elite priced, private research university in the southern U.S. Pricing and aid strategies for this university seem to be driven by intuitive assumptions about the economy, market forces, needs-blind admissions, student satisfaction, net price…
The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rahman, Sajjadur; Serletis, Apostolos
2010-01-01
In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)
Global modelling to predict timber production and prices: the GFPM approach
Joseph Buongiorno
2014-01-01
Timber production and prices are determined by the global demand for forest products, and the capability of producers from many countries to grow and harvest trees, transform them into products and export. The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) simulates how this global demand and supply of multiple products among many countries determines prices and attendant...
The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks. A nonlinear VAR approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rahman, Sajjadur [Department of Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon (Canada); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary (Canada)
2010-11-15
In this paper we investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and monetary policy on macroeconomic activity, using monthly data for the United States, over the period from 1983:1 to 2008:12. In doing so, we use a logistic smooth transition vector autoregression (VAR), as detailed in Terasvirta and Anderson (1992) and Weise (1999), and make a distinction between two oil price volatility regimes (high and low), using the realized oil price volatility as a switching variable. We isolate the effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks and their asymmetry on output growth and, following Koop et al. (1996) and Weise (1999), we employ simulation methods to calculate Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) to trace the effects of independent shocks on the conditional means of the variables. Our results suggest that in addition to the price of oil, oil price volatility has an impact on macroeconomic activity and that monetary policy is not only reinforcing the effects of oil price shocks on output, it is also contributing to the asymmetric response of output to oil price shocks. (author)
A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach
Brons, M.R.E.; Nijkamp, P.; Pels, E.; Rietveld, P.
2008-01-01
Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In
A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach
Brons, Martijn; Nijkamp, Peter; Pels, Eric; Rietveld, Piet
2006-01-01
Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In
Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims
Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.
2002-01-01
This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are
Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edesiri Godsday Okoro
2014-02-01
Full Text Available The study examined oil price volatility and economic growth in Nigeria linking oil price volatility, crude oil prices, oil revenue and Gross Domestic Product. Using quarterly data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Indicators (various issues spanning 1980-2010, a non‐linear model of oil price volatility and economic growth was estimated using the VAR technique. The study revealed that oil price volatility has significantly influenced the level of economic growth in Nigeria although; the result additionally indicated a negative relationship between the oil price volatility and the level of economic growth. Furthermore, the result also showed that the Nigerian economy survived on crude oil, to such extent that the country‘s budget is tied to particular price of crude oil. This is not a good sign for a developing economy, more so that the country relies almost entirely on revenue of the oil sector as a source of foreign exchange earnings. This therefore portends some dangers for the economic survival of Nigeria. It was recommended amongst others that there should be a strong need for policy makers to focus on policy that will strengthen/stabilize the economy with specific focus on alternative sources of government revenue. Finally, there should be reduction in monetization of crude oil receipts (fiscal discipline, aggressive saving of proceeds from oil booms in future in order to withstand vicissitudes of oil price volatility in future.
The Demand for Child Care Quality. An Hedonic Price Theory Approach.
Hagy, Alison P.
1998-01-01
An implicit price for child care staff-to-child ratio was used to study demand for child care quality. Direct purchase-of-service contracts or vouchers, which subsidize only providers meeting state regulations, effectively lower implicit price and have little influence on the demand for quality. (Author/SK)
An empirical test of reference price theories using a semiparametric approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Boztug, Yasemin; Hildebrandt, Lutz
In this paper we estimate and empirically test different behavioral theories of consumer reference price formation. Two major theories are proposed to model the reference price reaction: assimilation contrast theory and prospect theory. We assume that different consumer segments will use...
"Asset Ownership Across Generations"
Ngina S. Chiteji; Frank P. Stafford
2000-01-01
This paper examines cross-generational connections in asset ownership. It begins by presenting a theoretical framework that develops the distinction between the intergenerational transfer of knowledge about financial assets and the direct transfer of dollars from parents to children. Its analysis of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) reveals intergenerational correlations in asset ownership, and we find evidence to suggest that parental asset ownership or family-based exposur...
Orientation to Value in Substantiation of Price Strategy - A New Approach of the Modern Enterprise
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cristian - Marian Barbu
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Price can be considered a source of messages, set up in clues relating to the characteristics of the product it targets. How these messages are received, coded and interpreted by consumers should be a major preoccupation for decision-makers. If it knows the perception of the price, the enterprise can harness its psychological potential. In justification of the decisions, the enterprise should adopt a proactive vision enabling anticipation of competition or customers at the prices charged by it. Strategic marketing planning must act in such a way to effectively manage the uncertainty that governs decisions concerning the price. The provider should focus on the value offered to consumers, the concept around which should gravitate the marketing strategy of the enterprise. Priority orientation towards costs at the expense of focus on the market does not allow for proactive price management. In this context, the need to consider the concept of value before anything else.
Microeconomics of the Productivity, Price Indicators and Farm Incomes. Analytical Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Włodzimierz Rembisz
2011-07-01
Full Text Available The paper develops a farm producer behavior type model to analyze the impact of a input productivity and price change on farm incomes. The theoretical analysis shows the consequences of the balance between the increase of production factor prices and their productivity improvement in the condition of stable procurement price for the farm producers income. The cost effect of the production factors price increment and its neutralization by productivity (TFP-type growth is examined as well as some aspects of the inputs shares (returns and costs in the produce value. The article argues that labor input productivity as an endogenous factor, is an essential for farm incomes growth assuming the specified type of the farm producer utility function (its equations and variables as well as no the compensative procurement price change conditions. Some empirical evidence is attached however more work in that respect is foreseen.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Flor, Christian Riis
2008-01-01
This paper analyzes a firm's capital structure choice when assets have outside value. Valuable assets implicitly provide a collateral and increase tax shield exploitation. The key feature in this paper is asset value uncertainty, implying that it is unknown ex ante whether the equity holders ex p...
A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Minsuk Kwak
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.
Ruitenburg, Richard; Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan
2017-01-01
Asset Life Cycle Management is a strategic approach to managing physical assets over their complete life cycle. However, the literature and the recent ISO 55,000 standard do not offer guidance as to how to develop such an approach. This paper investigates the main capabilities for Asset Life Cycle
El Mouden, C; André, J-B; Morin, O; Nettle, D
2014-02-01
Transmitted culture can be viewed as an inheritance system somewhat independent of genes that is subject to processes of descent with modification in its own right. Although many authors have conceptualized cultural change as a Darwinian process, there is no generally agreed formal framework for defining key concepts such as natural selection, fitness, relatedness and altruism for the cultural case. Here, we present and explore such a framework using the Price equation. Assuming an isolated, independently measurable culturally transmitted trait, we show that cultural natural selection maximizes cultural fitness, a distinct quantity from genetic fitness, and also that cultural relatedness and cultural altruism are not reducible to or necessarily related to their genetic counterparts. We show that antagonistic coevolution will occur between genes and culture whenever cultural fitness is not perfectly aligned with genetic fitness, as genetic selection will shape psychological mechanisms to avoid susceptibility to cultural traits that bear a genetic fitness cost. We discuss the difficulties with conceptualizing cultural change using the framework of evolutionary theory, the degree to which cultural evolution is autonomous from genetic evolution, and the extent to which cultural change should be seen as a Darwinian process. We argue that the nonselection components of evolutionary change are much more important for culture than for genes, and that this and other important differences from the genetic case mean that different approaches and emphases are needed for cultural than genetic processes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Strategic Asset Seeking by EMNEs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Bent; Seifert, Jr., Rene E.
2014-01-01
Purpose: The chapter provides an economic explanation and perspectivation of strategic asset seeking of multinational enterprises from emerging economies (EMNEs) as a prominent feature of today’s global economy. Approach: The authors apply and extend the “springboard perspective.” This perspective...
The impact of asset repurchases and issues in an experimental market
Haruvy, E.; Noussair, C.N.; Powell, O.R.
We create an experimental asset market in which the value of the shares is independent of the quantity outstanding, and find that (i) repurchases increase, whereas share issues decrease, the price of the asset. These effects are consistent with downward-sloping demand for the asset. (ii) This
Physical approach to price momentum and its application to momentum strategy
Choi, Jaehyung
2014-12-01
We introduce various quantitative and mathematical definitions for price momentum of financial instruments. The price momentum is quantified with velocity and mass concepts originated from the momentum in physics. By using the physical momentum of price as a selection criterion, the weekly contrarian strategies are implemented in South Korea KOSPI 200 and US S&P 500 universes. The alternative strategies constructed by the physical momentum achieve the better expected returns and reward-risk measures than those of the traditional contrarian strategy in weekly scale. The portfolio performance is not understood by the Fama-French three-factor model.
Coordination of pricing and co-op advertising models in supply chain: A game theoretic approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amin Alirezaei
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Co-op advertising is an interactive relationship between manufacturer and retailer(s supply chain and makes up the majority of marketing budget in many product lines for manufacturers and retailers. This paper considers pricing and co-op advertising decisions in two-stage supply chain and develops a monopolistic retailer and duopolistic retailer's model. In these models, the manufacturer and the retailers play the Nash, Manufacturer-Stackelberg and cooperative game to make optimal pricing and co-op advertising decisions. A bargaining model is utilized for determine the best pricing and co-op advertising scheme for achieving full coordination in the supply chain.
Ruitenburg, Richard; Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan
2017-01-01
Asset Life Cycle Management is a strategic approach to managing physical assets over their complete life cycle. However, the literature and the recent ISO 55,000 standard do not offer guidance as to how to develop such an approach. This paper investigates the main capabilities for Asset Life Cycle Management by means of a four year Action Research project implementing Asset Life Cycle Plans. Five main capabilities emerged: 1. strategic information use; 2. alignment of operations and strategy;...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Sung Tae [Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Myunghun [Keimyung University, Taegu (Korea)
2001-03-01
This paper estimates the gasoline price elasticities of demand for automobile fuel efficiency in Korea to examine indirectly whether the government policy of raising fuel prices is effective in inducing less consumption of fuel, relying on a hedonic technique developed by Atkinson and Halvorsen (1984). One of the advantages of this technique is that the data for a single year, without involving variation in the price of gasoline, is sufficient in implementing this study. Moreover, this technique enables us to circumvent the multicollinearity problem, which had reduced reliability of the results in previous hedonic studies. The estimated elasticities of demand for fuel efficiency with respect to the price of gasoline, on average, is 0.42. (author). 30 refs., 3 tabs.
Bayesian Option Pricing Framework with Stochastic Volatility for FX Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ying Wang
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The application of stochastic volatility (SV models in the option pricing literature usually assumes that the market has sufficient option data to calibrate the model’s risk-neutral parameters. When option data are insufficient or unavailable, market practitioners must estimate the model from the historical returns of the underlying asset and then transform the resulting model into its risk-neutral equivalent. However, the likelihood function of an SV model can only be expressed in a high-dimensional integration, which makes the estimation a highly challenging task. The Bayesian approach has been the classical way to estimate SV models under the data-generating (physical probability measure, but the transformation from the estimated physical dynamic into its risk-neutral counterpart has not been addressed. Inspired by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH option pricing approach by Duan in 1995, we propose an SV model that enables us to simultaneously and conveniently perform Bayesian inference and transformation into risk-neutral dynamics. Our model relaxes the normality assumption on innovations of both return and volatility processes, and our empirical study shows that the estimated option prices generate realistic implied volatility smile shapes. In addition, the volatility premium is almost flat across strike prices, so adding a few option data to the historical time series of the underlying asset can greatly improve the estimation of option prices.
Key Factors Affecting the Price of Airbnb Listings: A Geographically Weighted Approach
Zhihua Zhang; Rachel J. C. Chen; Lee D. Han; Lu Yang
2017-01-01
Airbnb has been increasingly gaining popularity since 2008 due to its low prices and direct interactions with the local community. This paper employed a general linear model (GLM) and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to identify the key factors affecting Airbnb listing prices using data sets of 794 samples of Airbnb listings of business units in Metro Nashville, Tennessee. The results showed that the GWR model performs better than the GLM in terms of accuracy and affected vari...
Asset Attribution Stability and Portfolio Construction: An Educational Example
Chong, James T.; Jennings, William P.; Phillips, G. Michael
2014-01-01
This paper illustrates how a third statistic from asset pricing models, the R-squared statistic, may have information that can help in portfolio construction. Using a traditional CAPM model in comparison to an 18-factor Arbitrage Pricing Style Model, a portfolio separation test is conducted. Portfolio returns and risk metrics are compared using…
Netseva-Porcheva Tatyana
2010-01-01
The main aim of the paper is to present the value-based pricing. Therefore, the comparison between two approaches of pricing is made - cost-based pricing and value-based pricing. The 'Price sensitively meter' is presented. The other topic of the paper is the perceived value - meaning of the perceived value, the components of perceived value, the determination of perceived value and the increasing of perceived value. In addition, the best company strategies in matrix 'value-cost' are outlined. .
On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bremond, Vincent; Razafindrabe, Tovonony; Hache, Emmanuel
2015-07-01
The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. In this context, we propose to explore the economic literature dedicated to financial channels factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, and international liquidity) that could affect the oil price dynamics. In addition to oil prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar, we use the dry cargo index as a proxy for the real economic activity and prices for precious and industrial raw materials. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation, our main results show that the US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of the crude oil prices is not constant across the time and remains negative from 1989. It then highlights that a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar leads to an increase of the crude oil prices. Our paper also demonstrates the growing influence of financial and commodities markets development upon the global economy. (authors)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stephanie Kalynka Rocha Silveira
2017-04-01
Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo consiste em analisar as abordagens de avaliação de ativos intangíveis apresentadas na literatura nacional e internacional. Para tanto, fez-se uso de uma base filosófica construtivista e do Knowledge Development Process - Constructivist (ProKnow-C como instrumento de intervenção para revisão da literatura. No levantamento realizado nas bases: (i EBSCO; (ii ProQuest; (iii Scopus; (iv Science Direct e (v Spell encontrou-se o total de 1.672 artigos utilizando as palavras: Capital Intelectual ou Ativo Intangível e Organização em seu (i título, (ii resumo ou (iii palavras-chave. A partir do aprimoramento da pesquisa com os critérios (i exclusão de artigos repetidos/ redundantes; (ii alinhamento dos artigos ao tema quanto ao título; (iii reconhecimento científico dos artigos; (iv alinhamento dos artigos ao tema quanto aos resumos e (v disponibilidade dos artigos na íntegra, chegou-se a um Portfólio Bibliográfico (PB composto de 28 artigos. Na análise desse PB, identificou-se o total de 41 abordagens de avaliação de ativos intangíveis. Skandia Navigator foi a abordagem mais citada, totalizando 13% das citações. Constatou-se também as categorias e o enquadramento de cada abordagem, identificando-se que existem algumas lacunas de pesquisas envolvendo as abordagens de avaliação. The aim of this study is to analyze the intangible asset evaluation approaches presented in national and international literature. Therefore, there was use of a philosophical basis constructivist and the Knowledge Development Process - Constructivist (ProKnow-C as an intervention tool for literature review. This survey was carried out on the following basis: (i EBSCO; (Ii ProQuest; (Iii Scopus; (Iv Science Direct; and (v Spell, where it was met the total of 1,672 articles using the words: Intellectual Capital or Intangible Assets and Organization in their (i titles, (ii abstracts or (iii keywords. From the research improvement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Ji Feng; Wang, Xin; Zhang, Ya Xiong; Kou, Qin
2014-01-01
We use a dynamic CGE model (SICGE) to assess the economic and climate impacts of emissions trading system (ETS) in China with a carbon price of 100 Yuan/ton CO2. A particular focus is given to the regulated electricity price regime, which is a major concern of electricity sector’s cost-effective participation in ETS in China. We found: (1) Carbon pricing is an effective policy for China to reduce CO 2 emissions. Total CO 2 emissions reduction ranges from 6.8% to 11.2% in short-term. (2) Rigid electricity price entails lower CO 2 emissions reduction but can be considered as a feasible starting point to introduce carbon pricing policies in short-term as long as governmental subsidies are given to electricity production. (3) In mid- and long-term, the efficient policy is to earmark carbon revenue with competitive electricity price. We propose to use carbon revenue to reduce consumption tax in the first year of the introduction of carbon price and to use the carbon revenue to reduce production tax in following years. - Highlights: • We use a CGE model to assess the impacts of carbon pricing in China. • We test different scenarios of carbon cost pass-through in electricity price. • Carbon pricing policy cost-efficiency is examined with double-dividend hypothesis
Historical development of derivatives’ underlying assets
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sylvie Riederová
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The derivative transactions are able to eliminate the unexpected risk arising from the price volatility of the asset. The need for risk elimination relates to the application of derivatives.This paper is focused on derivatives’ underlying assets themselves. With the plain description, supported by progressive summarization, the authors analysed the relevant theoretical sources, dealt with derivatives, their underlying assets and their development in centuries. Starting in the ancient history, 2000 BC, the first non-standard transaction, very close to today’s understanding of derivatives, becomes to be closed between counterparties. During the time, in different kingdoms and emporiums, derivatives started to play a significant role in daily life, helping to reduce the uncertainty of the future. But the real golden era for derivatives started with the so called ‘New derivative markets’ and computer supported trading. They have extended their form from simple tools to most complex structures, without changing their main purpose hedging and risk – reduction.For the main purpose of this paper it is impossible to split the development of derivatives from the very wide extension of underlying assets. The change of these assets was one of the main drivers in derivatives development. Understanding of the dynamic character of these assets helps to understand the world of derivatives.
Oil price fluctuations and employment in Kern County: A Vector Error Correction approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Gearhart, Richard
2015-01-01
Kern County is one of the country's largest oil producing regions, in which the oil industry employs a significant fraction of the labor force in the county. In this study, the short- and long-run effects of oil price fluctuations on employment in Kern County are investigated using a Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Empirical results over the period 1990:01 to 2015:03 suggest long-run causality running from both WTI and Brent oil prices to employment. No causality is detected in the short-run. Kern County should formulate appropriate policies, which take into account the fact that changes in oil prices have long-term effects on employment rather than short term. - Highlights: • Kern County is California's largest oil producing region. • Historical data has shown increased employment during periods of high oil prices. • We study the short- and long run effects of oil prices on employment in Kern County. • Results suggest long run causality running from WTI and Brent to employment. • No causality is detected in the short run.
Examining the impacts of oil price changes on economic indicators: A panel approach
Lim, Kah Boon; Sek, Siok Kun
2017-04-01
The impact of oil price on global economy is evident from many studies and research findings. In this study, we extend the research on examining the impact of oil price changes on economic indicators in terms of economic growth and inflation by comparing different groups of economies (high income versus low income countries and oil importing versus oil exporting countries). Our main objective is to reveal if such impact varies across country income level/ development and oil dependency. In addition, we also seek to compare the impacts of oil price relative to the other factors indicators (money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, government expenditure, inflation and gross domestic product) on economy. For the purpose of this study, the co-integration regression (DOLS and FMOLS) techniques are applied to the panel dataset of four groups of economies which contain 10 countries in each panel dataset. The analysis results show that oil price is not the main determinant although it can have a significant impact on inflation and economic growth across all groups of economies. The three main determinants of economic growth are exchange rate, aggregate demand and government expenditure while the determinants of inflation are aggregate supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, our result also concludes that oil price has a positive impact in oil exporting economies but it shows a negative impact in oil importing economies due to the oil dependency factor.
A Probabilistic Approach to Control of Complex Systems and Its Application to Real-Time Pricing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Koichi Kobayashi
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Control of complex systems is one of the fundamental problems in control theory. In this paper, a control method for complex systems modeled by a probabilistic Boolean network (PBN is studied. A PBN is widely used as a model of complex systems such as gene regulatory networks. For a PBN, the structural control problem is newly formulated. In this problem, a discrete probability distribution appeared in a PBN is controlled by the continuous-valued input. For this problem, an approximate solution method using a matrix-based representation for a PBN is proposed. Then, the problem is approximated by a linear programming problem. Furthermore, the proposed method is applied to design of real-time pricing systems of electricity. Electricity conservation is achieved by appropriately determining the electricity price over time. The effectiveness of the proposed method is presented by a numerical example on real-time pricing systems.
Valuation of intangible assets
Karlíková, Jitka
2010-01-01
The thesis is focused on the valuation of intangible assets, particularly trademarks and copyrights. In the beginning it deals with the problems of valuation of intangible assets. The main part of the thesis provides an overview of methods for valuation of intangible assets. This part is followed by a practical section that illustrates the procedure of valuation of trademarks and copyrights on a concrete example.
Stenzel, A.; Wagner, W.B.
2013-01-01
Abstract: We consider a model of private information acquisition in which the cost of information depends on an asset's opacity. The model generates a hump-shaped relationship between opacity and the equilibrium amount of private information. In particular, the incentives to acquire information are largest for assets of intermediate opacity; such assets hence display low liquidity in the secondary market due to adverse selection. We also show that costly information acquisition generates ince...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hirano, Masashi [Department of Reactor Safety Research, Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)
1997-12-31
In general, the ASSET has had a positive effect on enhancement of operating experience feedback. The ASSET has played an important role to supply information to the IAEA Extra Budgetary Program. However, this role has come to an end; since the needs for safety upgrading have become identified and prioritized. ASSET missions in future: Linkage among various safety missions should be sought in order to avoid duplication and to enhance effective usage of a limited budget and human resources.
Ruitenburg, Richard Jacob; Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan; van Dongen, Leonardus Adriana Maria; Carnero, Maria Carmen; Gonzalez-Prida, Vicente
2017-01-01
Effective management of physical assets should deliver maximum business value. Therefore, Asset Management standards such as PAS 55 and ISO 55000 ask for a life cycle approach. However, most existing methods focus only on the short term of the asset's life or the estimation of its remaining life.
ℓ(p)-Norm multikernel learning approach for stock market price forecasting.
Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng
2012-01-01
Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ(p)-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression model.
Word of Mouth : An Agent-based Approach to Predictability of Stock Prices
Shimokawa, Tetsuya; Misawa, Tadanobu; Watanabe, Kyoko
This paper addresses how communication processes among investors affect stock prices formation, especially emerging predictability of stock prices, in financial markets. An agent based model, called the word of mouth model, is introduced for analyzing the problem. This model provides a simple, but sufficiently versatile, description of informational diffusion process and is successful in making lucidly explanation for the predictability of small sized stocks, which is a stylized fact in financial markets but difficult to resolve by traditional models. Our model also provides a rigorous examination of the under reaction hypothesis to informational shocks.
Competitive electricity markets around the world: approaches to price risk management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Masson, G.S.
1999-01-01
This chapter focuses on wholesale electricity markets, and traces the histories of the US and UK power industries. Risk management in the new electricity market is examined covering price risk, location basis risk, volume risk, and margin and cross-commodity risk. Specific competitive market systems that have been implemented around the world including mandatory pools, voluntary pools, and bilateral markets are discussed. Panels describing the functions of ancillary services, electricity price volatility, and the problems of capacity payments and the UK pool are presented
AN ECOSYSTEM PERSPECTIVE ON ASSET MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lasse METSO
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Big Data and Internet of Things will increase the amount of data on asset management exceedingly. Data sharing with an increased number of partners in the area of asset management is important when developing business opportunities and new ecosystems. An asset management ecosystem is a complex set of relationships between parties taking part in asset management actions. In this paper, the current barriers and benefits of data sharing are identified based on the results of an interview study. The main benefits are transparency, access to data and reuse of data. New services can be created by taking advantage of data sharing. The main barriers to sharing data are an unclear view of the data sharing process and difficulties to recognize the benefits of data sharing. For overcoming the barriers in data sharing, this paper applies the ecosystem perspective on asset management information. The approach is explained by using the Swedish railway industry as an example.
An Ecosystem Perspective On Asset Management Information
Metso, Lasse; Kans, Mirka
2017-09-01
Big Data and Internet of Things will increase the amount of data on asset management exceedingly. Data sharing with an increased number of partners in the area of asset management is important when developing business opportunities and new ecosystems. An asset management ecosystem is a complex set of relationships between parties taking part in asset management actions. In this paper, the current barriers and benefits of data sharing are identified based on the results of an interview study. The main benefits are transparency, access to data and reuse of data. New services can be created by taking advantage of data sharing. The main barriers to sharing data are an unclear view of the data sharing process and difficulties to recognize the benefits of data sharing. For overcoming the barriers in data sharing, this paper applies the ecosystem perspective on asset management information. The approach is explained by using the Swedish railway industry as an example.
Sahin, Oz; Bertone, Edoardo; Beal, Cara; Stewart, Rodney A
2018-06-01
Population growth, coupled with declining water availability and changes in climatic conditions underline the need for sustainable and responsive water management instruments. Supply augmentation and demand management are the two main strategies used by water utilities. Water demand management has long been acknowledged as a least-cost strategy to maintain water security. This can be achieved in a variety of ways, including: i) educating consumers to limit their water use; ii) imposing restrictions/penalties; iii) using smart and/or efficient technologies; and iv) pricing mechanisms. Changing water consumption behaviours through pricing or restrictions is challenging as it introduces more social and political issues into the already complex water resources management process. This paper employs a participatory systems modelling approach for: (1) evaluating various forms of a proposed tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure, and (2) comparing scenario outcomes against the traditional restriction policy regime. System dynamics modelling was applied since it can explicitly account for the feedbacks, interdependencies, and non-linear relations that inherently characterise the water tariff (price)-demand-revenue system. A combination of empirical water use data, billing data and customer feedback on future projected water bills facilitated the assessment of the suitability and likelihood of the adoption of scarcity-driven tariff options for a medium-sized city within Queensland, Australia. Results showed that the tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure presented was preferable to restrictions since it could maintain water security more equitably with the lowest overall long-run marginal cost. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cheali, Peam; Quaglia, Alberto; Gernaey, Krist V.
2014-01-01
the design space, generic but simple models describing the processing tasks, and the formulation and solution of an MINLP problem under deterministic and stochastic conditions to identify the optimal processing route for multiple raw materials and products. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of market price...... uncertainties on the optimal solutions and calculate the associated risk to enable informed and risk-aware decisions....
Proposed currency composite approach to pricing OPEC oil: problems and possibilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shaaf, M.B.
1982-01-01
The primary purpose of this dissertation was to explore the nature, purposes, benefits, and barriers of establishing a currency basket for OPEC as an alternative to the use the dollar for international trade in oil. The study included the construction and evaluation of three alternative currency baskets and the evaluation of two other baskets for the protection of the real price of OPEC oil from foreign-exchange fluctuations between 1971 and 1980. A secondary objective was to assess the inflationary impact on the real price of oil. Finally, the purpose was to evaluate the changes of the terms of trade of OPEC during the same period. The findings of the research are as follows: During 1971-1980, inflation and the relative weakness of the dollar have reduced the real price of oil to OPEC. In spite of this, the terms of trade of OPEC have substantially improved. This was because OPEC increased its oil prices much more than sufficient to compensate for inflation and the fluctuation of foreign-exchange rates.
An irregular grid approach for pricing high-dimensional American options
Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.
2008-01-01
We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting. The method is centered around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid. We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE
A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on empirical mode decomposition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shou-Yang; Lai, K.K.
2008-01-01
The importance of understanding the underlying characteristics of international crude oil price movements attracts much attention from academic researchers and business practitioners. Due to the intrinsic complexity of the oil market, however, most of them fail to produce consistently good results. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), recently proposed by Huang et al., appears to be a novel data analysis method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series. By decomposing a time series into a small number of independent and concretely implicational intrinsic modes based on scale separation, EMD explains the generation of time series data from a novel perspective. Ensemble EMD (EEMD) is a substantial improvement of EMD which can better separate the scales naturally by adding white noise series to the original time series and then treating the ensemble averages as the true intrinsic modes. In this paper, we extend EEMD to crude oil price analysis. First, three crude oil price series with different time ranges and frequencies are decomposed into several independent intrinsic modes, from high to low frequency. Second, the intrinsic modes are composed into a fluctuating process, a slowly varying part and a trend based on fine-to-coarse reconstruction. The economic meanings of the three components are identified as short term fluctuations caused by normal supply-demand disequilibrium or some other market activities, the effect of a shock of a significant event, and a long term trend. Finally, the EEMD is shown to be a vital technique for crude oil price analysis. (author)
Evaluation of the house price models using an ECM approach: the case of the Netherlands
Francke, M.K.; Vujic, S.; Vos, G.A.
2009-01-01
The research question of this paper is whether the Dutch housing market is overvalued or not. This is investigated by using different types of error correction models and by examining the impact of different variables that can explain house price changes in the Netherlands. The current financial
Key Factors Affecting the Price of Airbnb Listings: A Geographically Weighted Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhihua Zhang
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Airbnb has been increasingly gaining popularity since 2008 due to its low prices and direct interactions with the local community. This paper employed a general linear model (GLM and a geographically weighted regression (GWR model to identify the key factors affecting Airbnb listing prices using data sets of 794 samples of Airbnb listings of business units in Metro Nashville, Tennessee. The results showed that the GWR model performs better than the GLM in terms of accuracy and affected variable selections. Statistically significant differences varied across regions in Metro Nashville. The coefficients illustrate a decreasing trend while there is an increase in the distance from the listed units to the convention center, which indicates that Airbnb listing prices are more sensitive to the distance from the convention center in the central area than in other areas. These findings can also provide implications for stakeholders such as Airbnb hosts to gain a better understanding of the market situation and formulate a suitable pricing strategy.
An Irregular Grid Approach for Pricing High-Dimensional American Options
Berridge, S.J.; Schumacher, J.M.
2004-01-01
We propose and test a new method for pricing American options in a high-dimensional setting.The method is centred around the approximation of the associated complementarity problem on an irregular grid.We approximate the partial differential operator on this grid by appealing to the SDE
Transparency in the pharmaceutical industry - A cost accounting approach to the prices of drugs
Broekhof, Martijn
2002-01-01
The WTO TRIPS agreement grants pharmaceutical companies patent rights on new innovative drugs. Patents give these companies the opportunity to charge higher prices for their drugs in order to recover their R&D expenses. For developing countries this is one of the reasons why people in developing