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Sample records for assessment models ovis

  1. Inactivated Orf virus (Parapoxvirus ovis) elicits antifibrotic activity in models of liver fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowatzky, Janina; Knorr, Andreas; Hirth-Dietrich, Claudia; Siegling, Angela; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Limmer, Andreas; Knolle, Percy; Weber, Olaf

    2013-05-01

    Inactivated Orf virus (ORFV, Parapoxvirus ovis) demonstrates strong antiviral activity in animal models including a human hepatitis B virus (HBV)-transgenic mouse. In addition, expression of interferon (IFN)-γ and interleukin-10 (IL-10) was induced after administration of inactivated ORFV in these mice. IFN-γ and IL-10 are known to elicit antifibrotic activity. We therefore aimed to study antifibrotic activity of inactivated ORFV in models of liver fibrosis. We characterized ORFV-induced hepatic cytokine expression in rats. We then studied ORFV in two models of liver fibrosis in rats, pig serum-induced liver fibrosis and carbon tetrachloride (CCL4 )-induced liver fibrosis. ORFV induced hepatic expression of IFN-γ and IL-10 in rats. ORFV mediated antifibrotic activity when administrated concomitantly with the fibrosis-inducing agents in both models of liver fibrosis. Importantly, when CCL4 -induced liver fibrosis was already established, ORFV application still showed significant antifibrotic activity. In addition, we were able to demonstrate a direct antifibrotic effect of ORFV on stellate cells. These results establish a potential novel antifibrotic therapeutic approach that not only prevents but also resolves established liver fibrosis. Further studies are required to unravel the details of the mechanisms involved. © 2012 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

  2. An individual-based modelling approach to estimate landscape connectivity for bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis

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    Corrie H. Allen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. Preserving connectivity, or the ability of a landscape to support species movement, is among the most commonly recommended strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change and human land use development on species. Connectivity analyses have traditionally used a corridor-based approach and rely heavily on least cost path modeling and circuit theory to delineate corridors. Individual-based models are gaining popularity as a potentially more ecologically realistic method of estimating landscape connectivity. However, this remains a relatively unexplored approach. We sought to explore the utility of a simple, individual-based model as a land-use management support tool in identifying and implementing landscape connectivity. Methods. We created an individual-based model of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis that simulates a bighorn sheep traversing a landscape by following simple movement rules. The model was calibrated for bighorn sheep in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, a region containing isolated herds that are vital to conservation of the species in its northern range. Simulations were run to determine baseline connectivity between subpopulations in the study area. We then applied the model to explore two land management scenarios on simulated connectivity: restoring natural fire regimes and identifying appropriate sites for interventions that would increase road permeability for bighorn sheep. Results. This model suggests there are no continuous areas of good habitat between current subpopulations of sheep in the study area; however, a series of stepping-stones or circuitous routes could facilitate movement between subpopulations and into currently unoccupied, yet suitable, bighorn habitat. Restoring natural fire regimes or mimicking fire with prescribed burns and tree removal could considerably increase bighorn connectivity in this area. Moreover, several key road crossing sites that could benefit from

  3. Coprological Assessment of Enteric Parasites in Argali Sheep ( Ovis ammon , Siberian Ibex ( Capra sibirica , and Domestic Sheep and Goats at the Ikh Nart Nature Reserve in Mongolia

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    David E. Kenny

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In the spring of 2009 (April/May the Denver Zoological Foundation in collaboration with the Mongolian Academy of Sciences conducted a fi eld coprological assessment feasibility study at the Ikh Nart Nature Reserve in southeastern Mongolia. Our initial effort was directed at fi nding simple methodologies that would work consistently in the fi eld for identifying some of the enteric parasites for argali sheep ( Ovis ammon and Siberian ibex ( Capra sibirica , and then to compare these to samples from local nomad domestic fat-tailed sheep ( Ovis aries and cashmere goats ( Capra hircus . Direct fecal examination yielded less eggs than the fl otation techniques, but was still felt to be useful as a quick screening tool. From the fl otation techniques we settled on using sugar because it appeared to yield the most eggs and sugar is readily available in Mongolia. We successfully recovered Entamoeba sp., Eimeria spp., trichostrongyles, large trichostrongyle species, Trichuris ovis and Strongyloides papillosus . We are using the digital images we captured to create a fi eld guide for common enteric parasites found in wildlife and domestics ungulates found in the reserve. In the future, we plan to use the fi eld guide and the quantitative modi fi ed McMaster technique to compare parasite egg-type numbers in both wild and domestic ungulates during different seasons.

  4. Assessing Timing and Causes of Neonatal Lamb Losses in a Bighorn Sheep ( Ovis canadensis canadensis ) Herd via Use of Vaginal Implant Transmitters.

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    Grigg, Jamin L; Wolfe, Lisa L; Fox, Karen A; Killion, Halcyon J; Jennings-Gaines, Jessica; Miller, Michael W; P Dreher, Brian

    2017-07-01

    We evaluated the use of vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) as a means of detecting, capturing, and radio collaring Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis canadensis) lambs to estimate survival and to facilitate carcass recovery to assess causes of mortality. We focused on one of several bighorn herds in Colorado, US, suffering from depressed recruitment that was not preceded by a classic all-age die-off. We captured, radio-collared, diagnosed pregnancy by ultrasound examination, and inserted VITs into 15 pregnant ewes from a herd residing near Granite, Colorado. We were subsequently able to collar a lamb from each of 13 VITs, and two additional lambs opportunistically from ewes without transmitters. As lambs died, we recovered and submitted carcasses for necropsy and laboratory assessment. All lambs captured and one additional lamb (carcass found opportunistically) were dead by about 130 d of age: 11 died of apparent pneumonia (all within 8-10 wk of age), one died from trauma after being kicked or trampled, one was killed by a mountain lion ( Puma concolor ), and three died of starvation likely caused by abandonment after capture. Pneumonic lambs had involvement of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae and leukotoxigenic Bibersteinia trehalosi . The use of VITs and lamb collars enabled us to efficiently identify pneumonia as the predominant cause of depressed lamb recruitment in this herd; however, we urge care in neonatal lamb handling to minimize abandonment.

  5. Choosing sheep (Ovis aries) as animal model for temporomandibular joint research: Morphological, histological and biomechanical characterization of the joint disc.

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    Angelo, D F; Morouço, P; Alves, N; Viana, T; Santos, F; González, R; Monje, F; Macias, D; Carrapiço, B; Sousa, R; Cavaco-Gonçalves, S; Salvado, F; Peleteiro, C; Pinho, M

    2016-12-01

    Preclinical trials are essential to the development of scientific technologies. Remarkable molecular and cellular research has been done using small animal models. However, significant differences exist regarding the articular behavior between these models and humans. Thus, large animal models may be more appropriate to perform trials involving the temporomandibular joint (TMJ). The aim of this work was to make a morphological (anatomic dissection and white light 3D scanning system), histological (TMJ in bloc was removed for histologic analysis) and biomechanical characterization (tension and compression tests) of sheep TMJ comparing the obtained results with human data. Results showed that sheep processus condylaris and fossa mandibularis are anatomically similar to the same human structures. TMJ disc has an elliptical perimeter, thinner in the center than in periphery. Peripheral area acts as a ring structure supporting the central zone. The disc cells display both fibroblast and chondrocyte-like morphology. Marginal area is formed by loose connective tissue, with some chondrocyte-like cells and collagen fibers in diverse orientations. Discs obtained a tensile modulus of 3.97±0.73MPa and 9.39±1.67MPa, for anteroposterior and mediolateral assessment. The TMJ discs presented a compressive modulus (E) of 446.41±5.16MPa and their maximum stress value (σmax) was 18.87±1.33MPa. Obtained results suggest that these animals should be considered as a prime model for TMJ research and procedural training. Further investigations in the field of oromaxillofacial surgery involving TMJ should consider sheep as a good animal model due to its resemblance of the same joint in humans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Miasis ocular por Oestrus ovis

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    María Beltrán F

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Se presentan tres casos de miasis ocular (dos adultos y un niñoprocedentes de zonas ganaderas de la provincia de Huaura,departamento de Lima,que acudieron al Hospital Regional de Huacho por presentar el ojo rojo,fotofobia, edema palpebral y sensación de cuerpo extraño;se extrajeron larvas adheridas al canto interno del ojo,las cuales se recibieron en el Instituto Nacional de Salud y fueron identificadas como Oestrus ovis .

  7. Anaplasma ovis genetic diversity detected by major surface protein 1a and its prevalence in small ruminants.

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    Aktas, Munir; Özübek, Sezayi

    2018-04-01

    Anaplasma ovis is a widely distributed tick-borne rickettsial pathogen of sheep, goats, and wild ruminants. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence, associations of Anaplasma ovis in sheep and goats, as well as its genetic diversity based on analysis of the msp1α gene. A total of 416 DNA samples from sheep (n = 236) and goats (n = 180) from four provinces in southeastern Turkey were analyzed by PCR. The overall A. ovis prevalence was 18% (CI 14.4-22.1). The infection rates of A. ovis varied from 15.9% to 21.8% in sampled provinces, and they were not significantly different. There was no difference between Anaplasma ovis infection in sheep (20.3%, CI 15.4-26.0) and goats (15.0%, CI 10.1-21.1) or in infection rate of animals 1 year (16.4%, CI 12.4-21.2). A significant association between A. ovis infection and the presence of Rhipicephalus bursa and Rhipicephalus turanicus was observed (P diversity of A. ovis were found in small ruminants in Turkey. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Advanced verification methods for OVI security ink

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    Coombs, Paul G.; McCaffery, Shaun F.; Markantes, Tom

    2006-02-01

    OVI security ink +, incorporating OVP security pigment* microflakes, enjoys a history of effective document protection. This security feature provides not only first-line recognition by the person on the street, but also facilitates machine-readability. This paper explores the evolution of OVI reader technology from proof-of-concept to miniaturization. Three different instruments have been built to advance the technology of OVI machine verification. A bench-top unit has been constructed which allows users to automatically verify a multitude of different banknotes and OVI images. In addition, high speed modules were fabricated and tested in a state of the art banknote sorting machine. Both units demonstrate the ability of modern optical components to illuminate and collect light reflected from the interference platelets within OVI ink. Electronic hardware and software convert and process the optical information in milliseconds to accurately determine the authenticity of the security feature. Most recently, OVI ink verification hardware has been miniaturized and simplified providing yet another platform for counterfeit protection. These latest devices provide a tool for store clerks and bank tellers to unambiguously determine the validity of banknotes in the time period it takes the cash drawer to be opened.

  9. First report of Taenia ovis infection in Danish sheep (Ovis aries)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Heidi Huus; Al-Sabi, Mohammad N.S.; Larsen, Gitte

    2018-01-01

    We report Taenia ovis infection in Danish sheep for the first time. In spring 2016, the metocestode stage of T. ovis was at slaughter observed in heart muscles, diaphragm and skeletal muscles from approx. a third of all sheep from one specific farm localised in South Jutland. The diagnosis was co...

  10. Alternative occupied volume integrity (OVI) tests and analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    FRA, supported by the Volpe Center, conducted research on alternative methods of evaluating occupied volume integrity (OVI) in passenger railcars. Guided by this research, an alternative methodology for evaluating OVI that ensures an equivalent or gr...

  11. Improved verification methods for OVI security ink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coombs, Paul G.; Markantes, Tom

    2000-04-01

    Together, OVP Security Pigment in OVI Security Ink, provide an excellent method of overt banknote protection. The effective use of overt security feature requires an educated public. The rapid rise in computer-generated counterfeits indicates that consumers are not as educate das to banknote security features as they should be. To counter the education issue, new methodologies have been developed to improve the validation of banknotes using the OVI ink feature itself. One of the new methods takes advantage of the overt nature of the product's optically variable effect. Another method utilizes the unique optical interference characteristics provided by the OVP platelets.

  12. OVIS 2.0 user%3CU%2B2019%3Es guide.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayo, Jackson R.; Gentile, Ann C.; Brandt, James M.; Thompson, David C.; Roe, Diana C.; Wong, Matthew H.; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

    2009-04-01

    This document describes how to obtain, install, use, and enjoy a better life with OVIS version 2.0. The OVIS project targets scalable, real-time analysis of very large data sets. We characterize the behaviors of elements and aggregations of elements (e.g., across space and time) in data sets in order to detect anomalous behaviors. We are particularly interested in determining anomalous behaviors that can be used as advance indicators of significant events of which notification can be made or upon which action can be taken or invoked. The OVIS open source tool (BSD license) is available for download at ovis.ca.sandia.gov. While we intend for it to support a variety of application domains, the OVIS tool was initially developed for, and continues to be primarily tuned for, the investigation of High Performance Compute (HPC) cluster system health. In this application it is intended to be both a system administrator tool for monitoring and a system engineer tool for exploring the system state in depth. OVIS 2.0 provides a variety of statistical tools for examining the behavior of elements in a cluster (e.g., nodes, racks) and associated resources (e.g., storage appliances and network switches). It calculates and reports model values and outliers relative to those models. Additionally, it provides an interactive 3D physical view in which the cluster elements can be colored by raw element values (e.g., temperatures, memory errors) or by the comparison of those values to a given model. The analysis tools and the visual display allow the user to easily determine abnormal or outlier behaviors. The OVIS project envisions the OVIS tool, when applied to compute cluster monitoring, to be used in conjunction with the scheduler or resource manager in order to enable intelligent resource utilization. For example, nodes that are deemed less healthy, that is, nodes that exhibit outlier behavior in some variable, or set of variables, that has shown to be correlated with future failure

  13. Novel Detection of Coxiella spp., Theileria luwenshuni, and T. ovis Endosymbionts in Deer Keds (Lipoptena fortisetosa.

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    Seung-Hun Lee

    Full Text Available We describe for the first time the detection of Coxiella-like bacteria (CLB, Theileria luwenshuni, and T. ovis endosymbionts in blood-sucking deer keds. Eight deer keds attached to a Korean water deer were identified as Lipoptena fortisetosa (Diptera: Hippoboscidae by morphological and genetic analyses. Among the endosymbionts assessed, CLB, Theileria luwenshuni, and T. ovis were identified in L. fortisetosa by PCR and nucleotide sequencing. Based on phylogeny, CLB 16S rRNA sequences were classified into clade B, sharing 99.4% identity with CLB from Haemaphysalis longicornis in South Korea. Although the virulence of CLB to vertebrates is still controversial, several studies have reported clinical symptoms in birds due to CLB infections. The 18S rRNA sequences of T. luwenshuni and T. ovis in this study were 98.8-100% identical to those in GenBank, and all of the obtained sequences of T. ovis and T. luwenshuni in this study were 100% identical to each other, respectively. Although further studies are required to positively confirm L. fortisetosa as a biological vector of these pathogens, strong genetic relationships among sequences from this and previous studies suggest potential transmission among mammalian hosts by ticks and keds.

  14. The first outbreak of Taenia ovis infection in China.

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    Shi, Wangui; He, Wei; Guo, Xiaola; Liu, Quanyuan; Gao, Shengzhi; Zhan, Fang; Liu, Xu; Pan, Yonghong; Luo, Xuenong; Zheng, Yadong

    2016-10-01

    Infection of Taenia ovis metacestodes in sheep or goats causes great economic losses due to condemnation of carcasses. T. ovis infection is not formally recorded in China to date. In October, 2015, T. ovis infection occurred in Jingtai County, China, and 113 of 192 sheep from one farm were infected. Cysts resided in the cardiac and skeletal muscle, and evaginated metacestodes had four suckers and scolex armed with approximately 23 hooks. Using cox1 and nad1 as molecular markers, the sample was further identified and the results showed that the cox1 and nad1 nucleotide sequences of the sample shared 99% identity with that of T. ovis and 75%-91.3% with those of other Taenia species. Taken together, these results confirm the first occurrence of T. ovis in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Taenia ovis: an emerging threat to the Chinese sheep industry?

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    Zheng, Yadong

    2016-07-26

    Taenia ovis is a tapeworm that is mainly transmitted between dogs and sheep. Although T. ovis infection is not a public health issue, it causes a great financial loss due to condemnation of carcasses.  The first outbreak of T. ovis infection in China occurred in 2015. Reassessment of adverse effects of T. ovis infection on Chinese sheep industry in future is necessary. The first T. ovis outbreak in China suggests that the epidemic situation across the country is underestimated. For the transmission of T. ovis, many factors, including eggs, dogs and wild canids, human behaviours and sheep trade, should be seriously considered. In blocking the transmission chain, regular treatments of the infected dogs using anthelmintics play a crucial step, but at the moment it is difficult to be fully executed in China, largely due to the behaviours, customs and faith of local farmers. Moreover, combined with no clinical symptoms in the infected adult sheep and goats, the lack of pre-mortem diagnostic tools makes it harder to practice a national wide surveillance as well as inspection and quarantine in increasingly frequent free sheep trade activities in China, leading to an inability to restrict T. ovis infection into small areas. Furthermore, the ongoing campaigns against Echinococcus granulosus may have an adverse effect on control of T. ovis infection because of no consideration of a role of dogs in the transmission of the parasite. Lack of national epidemic data, pre-mortem diagnostic reagents and vaccines severely hampers the implementation of disease control campaigns and the restriction of T. ovis infection into small areas. Consequently, sheep and goats are at an increasing risk of T. ovis exposure and the possibility of large-scale outbreaks across China in future is possible, causing great adversity towards sheep industry.

  16. Ovis aries (Artiodactyla: Bovidae e Capra hircus (Artiodactyla: Bovidae parasitados por Oestrus ovis (Diptera: Oestridae no Distrito Federal, Brasil

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    Edison Cansi

    2011-12-01

    Abstract. The Oestrosis is an obligatory and cavitary myiasis of sheep and goat, wild and domestic, caused by the larvae of Oestrus ovis (Linnaeus fly. This study records the presence of O. ovis in the West Central region of Brazil as parasites of goats and sheep. We obtained six larvae from sheep and goats with suspects of oestrosis in Brasília (Brazil originate two females adult of O. ovis, after 20 and 23 days respectively of pupation. This finding is probably associated with expansion and diversification of farming in the Cerrado of the Brazilian central plateau.

  17. Optically Variable Inks (OVI): versatility in formulation and usage

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    Degott, Pierre

    2000-04-01

    Optically Variable Inks (OVI) are printing inks containing high precision, multi-layer interference filters as their constituent pigment. They display a strong and unique color change form a normal to an angled viewing position. During the last 10 years OVI has gained wide acceptance as an overt protection for numerous value documents including banknotes and ID cards. Meanwhile, continuous improvement has taken place over the last two years in a variety of areas.

  18. Reliable molecular differentiation of Trichuris ovis and Trichuris discolor from sheep (Ovis orientalis aries) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and morphological characterisation of their females: morphology does not work sufficiently.

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    Vejl, Pavel; Nechybová, Stanislava; Peřinková, Pavla; Melounová, Martina; Sedláková, Vladimíra; Vašek, Jakub; Čílová, Daniela; Rylková, Kateřina; Jankovská, Ivana; Vadlejch, Jaroslav; Langrová, Iva

    2017-08-01

    The main aim of the study was to evaluate associations between morphological variability of Trichuris females from sheep and roe deer and their rDNA polymorphism in whipworm populations from the Czech Republic. The results introduced the use of new molecular markers based on the internal transcribed spacer (ITS)1-5.8S RNA-ITS2 region polymorphisms, as useful tools for the unambiguous differentiation of congeners Trichuris ovis and Trichuris discolor. These markers revealed both parasites in roe deer and in sheep; however, T. ovis females predominated in sheep while T. discolor females occurred mostly in roe deer. Additional analysis of ITS1-5.8 rRNA-ITS2 discovered the genetic uniformity of the analysed T. discolor but high haplotype variation of T. ovis. Simultaneously, molecularly designated female individuals of both species were categorised into four morphotypes (MT) on the basis of morphology of genital pore area. MT1 and MT4 (vulvar opening on everted vaginal appendage/on visible cuticular bulge) occurred only in T. ovis, MT2 (uneverted vagina-vulvar opening without any elevation) was identified only in T. discolor and MT3 (transient type of vulvar opening on a small swelling) was observed in both species. Statistical analysis of biometric data confirmed that morphology of vulva is not a reliable marker for the species determination. On the basis of the ITS1-5.8S RNA-ITS2 region variability, we carried out a phylogenetic analysis (maximum likelihood method, Hasegawa-Kishino-Yano model) which showed that T. ovis haplotypes from the Czech Republic and Ireland and T. discolor haplotypes from the Czech Republic, Spain, Iran and Japan are sister OTUs.

  19. OVIS 3.2 user's guide.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayo, Jackson R.; Gentile, Ann C.; Brandt, James M.; Houf, Catherine A.; Thompson, David C.; Roe, Diana C.; Wong, Matthew H.; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

    2010-10-01

    This document describes how to obtain, install, use, and enjoy a better life with OVIS version 3.2. The OVIS project targets scalable, real-time analysis of very large data sets. We characterize the behaviors of elements and aggregations of elements (e.g., across space and time) in data sets in order to detect meaningful conditions and anomalous behaviors. We are particularly interested in determining anomalous behaviors that can be used as advance indicators of significant events of which notification can be made or upon which action can be taken or invoked. The OVIS open source tool (BSD license) is available for download at ovis.ca.sandia.gov. While we intend for it to support a variety of application domains, the OVIS tool was initially developed for, and continues to be primarily tuned for, the investigation of High Performance Compute (HPC) cluster system health. In this application it is intended to be both a system administrator tool for monitoring and a system engineer tool for exploring the system state in depth. OVIS 3.2 provides a variety of statistical tools for examining the behavior of elements in a cluster (e.g., nodes, racks) and associated resources (e.g., storage appliances and network switches). It provides an interactive 3-D physical view in which the cluster elements can be colored by raw or derived element values (e.g., temperatures, memory errors). The visual display allows the user to easily determine abnormal or outlier behaviors. Additionally, it provides search capabilities for certain scheduler logs. The OVIS capabilities were designed to be highly interactive - for example, the job search may drive an analysis which in turn may drive the user generation of a derived value which would then be examined on the physical display. The OVIS project envisions the capabilities of its tools applied to compute cluster monitoring. In the future, integration with the scheduler or resource manager will be included in a release to enable intelligent

  20. Comparative histology of the femur between mouflon (Ovis aries musimon and sheep (Ovis aries aries

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    Stefano Giua

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Mouflon (Ovis aries musimon and sheep (Ovis aries aries are considered as the wild and domestic subspecies of the same species. A comparative study on the microstructure of mouflon and sheep femoral bone diaphysis is here reported. Bone microstructure is described for the first time in the mouflon. More than 200 secondary osteons from both subspecies were analyzed and qualitative evaluation was followed by quantitative determination of perimeter, area, minimum and maximum diameters of secondary osteons and Haversian canals. The basic structural patterns observed in both subspecies can be classified as plexiform and irregular Haversian tissue, in accordance with what reported in the literature for most ruminants. The presence of many secondary osteons in the mouflon means that the bone also consists of dense Haversian bone tissue. Statistical analysis demonstrated that mouflon secondary osteons are larger than in the sheep and made of a greater number of lamellae. Since mouflon and sheep are taxonomically closely related and their body size is very similar, the qualitative and quantitative differences here reported could be primarily explained on account of their different lifestyle. Indeed, the habits of wildlife typical of mouflons may lead to the presence of wide areas of dense Haversian tissue in that subspecies, as mechanical stresses are known to be related to number and size of secondary osteons. Finally, this analysis could provide a useful tool to recognize bones from different species, in forensic exam and archaeozoological studies as well.

  1. External ophthalmomyiasis by Oestrus ovis: A case report from Davangere

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    Sridhar Rao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available External ophthalmomyiasis is an infestation of the eye with larvae of Dermatobia hominis or Oestrus ovis (sheep bot fly. We describe a case of ophthalmomyiasis in a 38-year-old male, who presented with ocular foreign body sensation, redness, pain, and watering of the eye. The causative larvae were removed and sent to the laboratory for identification. By studying morphological features, it was identified as the first instar larvae of O. ovis. The patient was put on topical and oral antibiotics but was lost to follow-up. This is probably the first report from this part of Karnataka.

  2. Efficacy of doramectin injectable against Oestrus ovis and gastrointestinal nematodes in sheep in the southwestern region of France.

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    Dorchies, P; Jacquiet, P; Bergeaud, J P; Duranton, C; Prévot, F; Alzieu, J P; Gossellin, J

    2001-03-20

    A study was conducted to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of doramectin administered intramuscularly at a dose rate of 200 microg/kg to sheep harbouring naturally acquired infections of gastrointestinal nematodes and Oestrus ovis in the southwestern region of France. On day 0, 24 sheep were selected on the basis of positive faecal egg counts (>100 EPG) and positive assessment of O. ovis infection (including positive O. ovis antibody level and positive clinical score). The sheep were randomly allocated to a non-medicated control group (T1) or a doramectin-treated group (T2) of 12 animals each. On day 0, sheep in group T2 received a single intramuscular injection of doramectin (200 microg/kg), whereas those in group T1 received an intramuscular injection of saline solution (sodium chloride, 0.02ml/kg). Individual faecal egg counts were performed on days 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 14. Between days 14 and 16, all sheep were slaughtered, and worm and O. ovis burdens were determined. In doramectin-treated sheep, faecal egg counts had decreased to zero by day 4 for all recovered types of nematode eggs: strongyles, Nematodirus sp., Trichuris sp., and Rhabditidae sp. For strongyles, Nematodirus sp., and Rhabditidae, the percentage reductions in faecal egg counts (geometric means) of doramectin-treated sheep, compared to the non-medicated control sheep were 100% from days 4-7. For Trichuris sp., they were 100, 99.7, 99.9, and 100% on days 4, 5, 6, and 7, respectively. On day 14, percentage reductions were 100% for Nematodirus sp. and Rhabditidae, and 99.8 and 99.1% for strongyles and Trichuris sp., respectively. At necropsy, only adult nematodes and mainly first-stage O. ovis larvae were recovered. Doramectin was highly efficacious against the adult stages of Teladorsagia circumcincta (100%), Nematodirus battus (100%), Nematodirus filicollis (99.9%), Oesophagostomum venulosum (99.8%), and Trichuris sp. (99.3%). It was also 100% efficacious against first-stage larvae of O

  3. From Monologue to Dialogue: Natural Language Generation in OVIS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theune, Mariet; Freedman, R.; Callaway, C.

    This paper describes how a language generation system that was originally designed for monologue generation, has been adapted for use in the OVIS spoken dialogue system. To meet the requirement that in a dialogue, the system’s utterances should make up a single, coherent dialogue turn, several

  4. Identification of Brucella ovis exclusive genes in field isolates from Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Lucía Paula; García-Effrón, Guillermo; Robles, Carlos Alejandro

    2016-03-01

    Brucellosis caused by Brucella ovis is one of the most important infectious diseases of sheep. The aim of this study was to determine the presence of genes both inside and outside the specific B. ovis pathogenicity island 1 (BOPI-1) in a large collection of field isolates of B. ovis and other Brucella spp. from Argentina. The BOV_A0500 gene from B. ovis BOPI-1 was identified in all 104 B. ovis isolates studied. The BOPI-1 complete sequence was found to be conserved in 10 B. ovis strains from the collection, for which whole genome sequencing was performed. The BOV_0198 gene, which is outside BOPI-1 and considered exclusive to B. ovis, showed 90-100% identity with genomic regions of B. ovis, B. melitensis, B. abortus, B. canis, B. suis, B. microti, B. ceti and B. pinnipedialis. The results demonstrate that BOPI-1 is the only exclusive genetic region of B. ovis and marine Brucella spp. and that it is highly conserved in B. ovis field isolates from Argentina. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Preliminary analysis of Psoroptes ovis transcriptome in different developmental stages

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    Man-Li He

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Psoroptic mange is a chronic, refractory, contagious and infectious disease mainly caused by the mange mite Psoroptes ovis, which can infect horses, sheep, buffaloes, rabbits, other domestic animals, deer, wild camels, foxes, minks, lemurs, alpacas, elks and other wild animals. Features of the disease include intense pruritus and dermatitis, depilation and hyperkeratosis, which ultimately result in emaciation or death caused by secondary bacterial infections. The infestation is usually transmitted by close contact between animals. Psoroptic mange is widespread in the world. In this paper, the transcriptome of P. ovis is described following sequencing and analysis of transcripts from samples of larvae (i.e. the Pso_L group and nymphs and adults (i.e. the Pso_N_A group. The study describes differentially expressed genes (DEGs and genes encoding allergens, which help understanding the biology of P. ovis and lay foundations for the development of vaccine antigens and drug target screening. Methods The transcriptome of P. ovis was assembled and analyzed using bioinformatic tools. The unigenes of P. ovis from each developmental stage and the unigenes differentially between developmental stages were compared with allergen protein sequences contained in the allergen database website to predict potential allergens. Results We identified 38,836 unigenes, whose mean length was 825 bp. On the basis of sequence similarity with seven databases, a total of 17,366 unigenes were annotated. A total of 1,316 DEGs were identified, including 496 upregulated and 820 downregulated in the Pso_L group compared with the Pso_N_A group. We predicted 205 allergens genes in the two developmental stages similar to genes from other mites and ticks, of these, 14 were among the upregulated DEGs and 26 among the downregulated DEGs. Conclusion This study provides a reference transcriptome of P. ovis in absence of a reference genome. The analysis of DEGs and

  6. Brucella ovis PA mutants for outer membrane proteins Omp10, Omp19, SP41, and BepC are not altered in their virulence and outer membrane properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidhu-Muñoz, Rebeca S; Sancho, Pilar; Vizcaíno, Nieves

    2016-04-15

    Mutants in several genes have been obtained on the genetic background of virulent rough (lacking O-polysaccharide) Brucella ovis PA. The target genes encode outer membrane proteins previously associated with the virulence of smooth (bearing O-polysaccharide chains in the lipopolysaccharide) Brucella strains. Multiple attempts to delete omp16, coding for a homologue to peptidoglycan-associated lipoproteins, were unsuccessful, which suggests that Omp16 is probably essential for in vitro survival of B. ovis PA. Single deletion of omp10 or omp19-that encode two other outer membrane lipoproteins--was achieved, but the simultaneous removal of both genes failed, suggesting an essential complementary function between both proteins. Two other deletion mutants, defective in the Tol-C-homologue BepC or in the SP41 adhesin, were also obtained. Surprisingly when compared to previous results obtained with smooth Brucella, none of the B. ovis mutants showed attenuation in the virulence, either in the mouse model or in cellular models of professional and non-professional phagocytes. Additionally, and in contrast to the observations reported with smooth Brucella strains, several properties related to the outer membrane remained almost unaltered. These results evidence new distinctive traits between naturally rough B. ovis and smooth brucellae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. From Monologue to Dialogue: Natural Language Generation in OVIS

    OpenAIRE

    Theune, Mariet; Freedman, R.; Callaway, C.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes how a language generation system that was originally designed for monologue generation, has been adapted for use in the OVIS spoken dialogue system. To meet the requirement that in a dialogue, the system’s utterances should make up a single, coherent dialogue turn, several modifications had to be made to the system. The paper also discusses the influence of dialogue context on information status, and its consequences for the generation of referring expressions and accentu...

  8. Survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) commingled with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) in the absence of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besser, Thomas E; Cassirer, E Frances; Yamada, Catherine; Potter, Kathleen A; Herndon, Caroline; Foreyt, William J; Knowles, Donald P; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2012-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae is an important agent of the bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) pneumonia that has previously inevitably followed experimental commingling with domestic sheep (Ovis aries), we commingled M. ovipneumoniae-free domestic and bighorn sheep (n=4 each). One bighorn sheep died with acute pneumonia 90 days after commingling, but the other three remained healthy for >100 days. This unprecedented survival rate is significantly different (P=0.002) from that of previous bighorn-domestic sheep contact studies but similar to (P>0.05) bighorn sheep survival following commingling with other ungulates. The absence of epizootic respiratory disease in this experiment supports the hypothesized role of M. ovipneumoniae as a key pathogen of epizootic pneumonia in bighorn sheep commingled with domestic sheep.

  9. Generation, analysis and functional annotation of expressed sequence tags from the ectoparasitic mite Psoroptes ovis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenyon Fiona

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sheep scab is caused by Psoroptes ovis and is arguably the most important ectoparasitic disease affecting sheep in the UK. The disease is highly contagious and causes and considerable pruritis and irritation and is therefore a major welfare concern. Current methods of treatment are unsustainable and in order to elucidate novel methods of disease control a more comprehensive understanding of the parasite is required. To date, no full genomic DNA sequence or large scale transcript datasets are available and prior to this study only 484 P. ovis expressed sequence tags (ESTs were accessible in public databases. Results In order to further expand upon the transcriptomic coverage of P. ovis thus facilitating novel insights into the mite biology we undertook a larger scale EST approach, incorporating newly generated and previously described P. ovis transcript data and representing the largest collection of P. ovis ESTs to date. We sequenced 1,574 ESTs and assembled these along with 484 previously generated P. ovis ESTs, which resulted in the identification of 1,545 unique P. ovis sequences. BLASTX searches identified 961 ESTs with significant hits (E-value P. ovis ESTs. Gene Ontology (GO analysis allowed the functional annotation of 880 ESTs and included predictions of signal peptide and transmembrane domains; allowing the identification of potential P. ovis excreted/secreted factors, and mapping of metabolic pathways. Conclusions This dataset currently represents the largest collection of P. ovis ESTs, all of which are publicly available in the GenBank EST database (dbEST (accession numbers FR748230 - FR749648. Functional analysis of this dataset identified important homologues, including house dust mite allergens and tick salivary factors. These findings offer new insights into the underlying biology of P. ovis, facilitating further investigations into mite biology and the identification of novel methods of intervention.

  10. Genome degradation in Brucella ovis corresponds with narrowing of its host range and tissue tropism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renee M Tsolis

    Full Text Available Brucella ovis is a veterinary pathogen associated with epididymitis in sheep. Despite its genetic similarity to the zoonotic pathogens B. abortus, B. melitensis and B. suis, B. ovis does not cause zoonotic disease. Genomic analysis of the type strain ATCC25840 revealed a high percentage of pseudogenes and increased numbers of transposable elements compared to the zoonotic Brucella species, suggesting that genome degradation has occurred concomitant with narrowing of the host range of B. ovis. The absence of genomic island 2, encoding functions required for lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis, as well as inactivation of genes encoding urease, nutrient uptake and utilization, and outer membrane proteins may be factors contributing to the avirulence of B. ovis for humans. A 26.5 kb region of B. ovis ATCC25840 Chromosome II was absent from all the sequenced human pathogenic Brucella genomes, but was present in all of 17 B. ovis isolates tested and in three B. ceti isolates, suggesting that this DNA region may be of use for differentiating B. ovis from other Brucella spp. This is the first genomic analysis of a non-zoonotic Brucella species. The results suggest that inactivation of genes involved in nutrient acquisition and utilization, cell envelope structure and urease may have played a role in narrowing of the tissue tropism and host range of B. ovis.

  11. Studies on antigenic cross-reactivity of Trichuris ovis with host mucosal antigens in goat

    OpenAIRE

    Gautam Patra; Seikh Sahanawaz Alam; Sonjoy Kumar Borthakur; Hridayesh Prasad

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To ascertain whether immunodominant antigens of Trichuris ovis might share and cross react with host molecule. Methods: Two crude protein preparations from anterior and posterior parts of Trichuris ovis were characterized along with host mucosal antigen by double immunodiffusion, sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and western blotting technique. Conventional scanning electron microscopy was performed as per standard procedure. Results: Sharp...

  12. High-throughput identification of miRNAs of Taenia ovis, a cestode threatening sheep industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yadong

    2017-07-01

    Taenia ovis is a tapeworm that is mainly transmitted between dogs and sheep or goats and has an adverse effect on sheep industry. miRNAs are short regulatory non-coding RNAs, involved in parasite development and growth as well as parasite infection. The miRNA profile of T. ovis remains to be established. Herein, 33 known miRNAs belonging to 23 different families were identified in T. ovis metacestodes using deep sequencing approach. Of them, expression of some miRNAs such as tov-miR-10 and -let-7 was absolutely predominant. Moreover, comparative analysis revealed the presence of a miR-71/2b/2c cluster in T. ovis, which was also completely conserved in other 6 cestodes. The study provides rich data for further understandings of T. ovis biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase: isoenzymatic pattern in Oesophagostomum venulosum, Trichuris ovis and T. suis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, B; Cutillas, C; German, P; Guevara, D

    1991-12-01

    In the present communication we have studied the isoenzymatic pattern activity of the glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) in Oesophagostomum venulosum, Trichuris ovis and T. suis, parasites of Capra hircus (goat), Ovis aries (sheep) and Sus scrofa domestica (pig) respectively, by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Different phenotypes have been observed in the G6PD isoenzymatic pattern activity in males and females of Oesophagostomum venulosum. Furthermore, G6PD activity has been assayed in Trichuris ovis collected from Ovis aries and Capra hircus. No differences have been observed in the isoenzymatic patterns attending to the different hosts. All the individuals exhibited one single band or two bands; this suggests a monomeric condition for G6PD in T. ovis. In T. suis the enzyme G6PD appeared as a single electrophoretic band in about 85.7% of the individuals.

  14. A Review of Hypothesized Determinants Associated with Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis Die-Offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S. Miller

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple determinants have been hypothesized to cause or favor disease outbreaks among free-ranging bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis populations. This paper considered direct and indirect causes of mortality, as well as potential interactions among proposed environmental, host, and agent determinants of disease. A clear, invariant relationship between a single agent and field outbreaks has not yet been documented, in part due to methodological limitations and practical challenges associated with developing rigorous study designs. Therefore, although there is a need to develop predictive models for outbreaks and validated mitigation strategies, uncertainty remains as to whether outbreaks are due to endemic or recently introduced agents. Consequently, absence of established and universal explanations for outbreaks contributes to conflict among wildlife and livestock stakeholders over land use and management practices. This example illustrates the challenge of developing comprehensive models for understanding and managing wildlife diseases in complex biological and sociological environments.

  15. Two agricultural production data libraries for risk assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baes, C.F. III; Shor, R.W.; Sharp, R.D.; Sjoreen, A.L.

    1985-01-01

    Two data libraries based on the 1974 US Census of Agriculture are described. The data packages (AGDATC and AGDATG) are available from the Radiation Shielding Information Center (RSIC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831. Agricultural production and land-use information by county (AGDATC) or by 1/2 by 1/2 degree longitude-latitude grid cell (AGDATG) provide geographical resolution of the data. The libraries were designed for use in risk assessment models that simulate the transport of radionuclides from sources of airborne release through food chains to man. However, they are also suitable for use in the assessment of other airborne pollutants that can affect man from a food ingestion pathway such as effluents from synfuels or coal-fired power plants. The principal significance of the data libraries is that they provide default location-specific food-chain transport parameters when site-specific information are unavailable. Plant food categories in the data libraries include leafy vegetables, vegetables and fruits exposed to direct deposition of airborne pollutants, vegetables and fruits protected from direct deposition, and grains. Livestock feeds are also tabulated in four categories: pasture, grain, hay, and silage. Pasture was estimated by a material balance of cattle and sheep inventories, forage feed requirements, and reported harvested forage. Cattle (Bos spp.), sheep (Ovis aries), goat (Capra hircus), hog (Sus scrofa), chicken (Gallus domesticus), and turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) inventories or sales are also tabulated in the data libraries and can be used to provide estimates of meat, eggs, and milk production. Honey production also is given. Population, irrigation, and meteorological information are also listed

  16. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  17. Using visuo-kinetic virtual reality to induce illusory spinal movement: the MoOVi Illusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvie, Daniel S; Smith, Ross T; Hunter, Estin V; Davis, Miles G; Sterling, Michele; Moseley, G Lorimer

    2017-01-01

    Illusions that alter perception of the body provide novel opportunities to target brain-based contributions to problems such as persistent pain. One example of this, mirror therapy, uses vision to augment perceived movement of a painful limb to treat pain. Since mirrors can't be used to induce augmented neck or other spinal movement, we aimed to test whether such an illusion could be achieved using virtual reality, in advance of testing its potential therapeutic benefit. We hypothesised that perceived head rotation would depend on visually suggested movement. In a within-subjects repeated measures experiment, 24 healthy volunteers performed neck movements to 50 o of rotation, while a virtual reality system delivered corresponding visual feedback that was offset by a factor of 50%-200%-the Motor Offset Visual Illusion (MoOVi)-thus simulating more or less movement than that actually occurring. At 50 o of real-world head rotation, participants pointed in the direction that they perceived they were facing. The discrepancy between actual and perceived direction was measured and compared between conditions. The impact of including multisensory (auditory and visual) feedback, the presence of a virtual body reference, and the use of 360 o immersive virtual reality with and without three-dimensional properties, was also investigated. Perception of head movement was dependent on visual-kinaesthetic feedback ( p  = 0.001, partial eta squared = 0.17). That is, altered visual feedback caused a kinaesthetic drift in the direction of the visually suggested movement. The magnitude of the drift was not moderated by secondary variables such as the addition of illusory auditory feedback, the presence of a virtual body reference, or three-dimensionality of the scene. Virtual reality can be used to augment perceived movement and body position, such that one can perform a small movement, yet perceive a large one. The MoOVi technique tested here has clear potential for assessment and

  18. Efficacy of a Parapoxvirus ovis-based immunomodulator against equine herpesvirus type 1 and Streptococcus equi equi infections in horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ons, Ellen; Van Brussel, Leen; Lane, Stephen; King, Vickie; Cullinane, Ann; Kenna, Rachel; Lyons, Pamela; Hammond, Toni-Ann; Salt, Jeremy; Raue, Rudiger

    2014-10-10

    The efficacy of Zylexis®, an immunomodulator in horses based on inactivated Parapoxvirus ovis (iPPVO), was assessed using an equine herpesvirus type 1 (EHV-1) challenge model in the presence of a natural infection with Streptococcus equi equi (S. equi). Eleven horses were treated with iPPVO and twelve were kept as controls. Six horses were challenged with EHV-1 and commingled with the horses on study. Animals were dosed on Days -2, 0 (just before commingling) and Day 7. On Day 11 significantly less nasal discharge, enlarged lymph nodes, EHV-1 shedding and lower rectal temperatures were observed in the iPPVO-treated group. In addition, iPPVO-treated horses showed significantly fewer enlarged lymph nodes on Days 17 and 19, significantly less lower jaw swelling on Day 3 and significantly lower rectal temperatures on Days 12 and 13. Dyspnoea, depression and anorexia were only recorded for the control group. Following challenge seven out of 11 horses in the iPPVO treated group shed EHV-1 but on Days 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16 quantitative virus detection in this group was significantly lower as compared to the controls. All animals shed S. equi but the percentage of animals with positive bacterial detection was lower in the iPPVO group than in the control group from Day 14 through Day 28. This difference was significant on Day 24. No injection site reactions or adverse events were observed. In conclusion, Zylexis administration is safe and reduced clinical signs and shedding related to both EHV-1 and S. equi infections. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A case of nasal myiasis due to Oestrus ovis (Diptera: Oestridae) in a llama (Lama glama).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Puerta, Luis Antonio; Alroy, Karen Ann; Ticona, Daniel Santiago; Lopez-Urbina, Maria Teresa; Gonzalez, Armando Emiliano

    2013-01-01

    Infection by the larval form of Oestrus ovis (sheep bot fly) is common in many areas of Peru. This is an obligate parasite of sheep and goats, and it is the cause of oestrosis, or nasal myiasis, which can lead to severe clinical manifestations in livestock. A case of myiasis caused by O. ovis in a llama (Lama glama) in Cuzco, Peru, is reported here. This llama presented with respiratory distress and died due to bilateral hemorrhagic pneumonia. During the necropsy, six intact dipterous larvae were recovered from the nasal fossae and cranial sinuses being identified as O. ovis. This is the first report of nasal myiasis in llamas due to O. ovis in Peru.

  20. A case of nasal myiasis due to Oestrus ovis (Diptera: Oestridae in a llama (Lama glama

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Antonio Gomez-Puerta

    Full Text Available Infection by the larval form of Oestrus ovis (sheep bot fly is common in many areas of Peru. This is an obligate parasite of sheep and goats, and it is the cause of oestrosis, or nasal myiasis, which can lead to severe clinical manifestations in livestock. A case of myiasis caused byO. ovis in a llama (Lama glama in Cuzco, Peru, is reported here. This llama presented with respiratory distress and died due to bilateral hemorrhagic pneumonia. During the necropsy, six intact dipterous larvae were recovered from the nasal fossae and cranial sinuses being identified as O. ovis. This is the first report of nasal myiasis in llamas due to O. ovis in Peru.

  1. Some parasitological, pathological and immunohistochemical examinations in sheep naturally infected by Trichuris Ovis

    OpenAIRE

    P. T. Iliev; A. Ivanov; Z. Kirkova; K. Hristov; K. Dinkova; J. Ananiev

    2017-01-01

    A case of Trichuris ovis infection in a lamb is presented. In June 2012 a herd of 12 infected with T. ovis lambs in Brestnik (Southern Bulgaria) were discovered. A diarrhea and loss in body weight in 2 lambs have been observed. Despite antibiotic treatment one of the animals died. Parasitological examination was done. During necropsy of the gastro-intestinal tract, adult worms in the caecum were found. Standart staining and immunohistochemistry were performed to detect the cell population in ...

  2. The anthelmintic efficacy of fenbendazole in the control of Moniezia expansa and Trichuris ovis in sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, R B; Kelly, J D; James, R; Weston, I

    1977-11-01

    The anthelmintic efficacy of fenbendazole (methyl 5-(phenyl-thio)-2-benzimidazole-carbamate) against Moniezia expansa and Trichuris ovis was tested. At dose rates of 5 mg per kg and above, efficacies were found to be greater than 91 percent against M expansa and greater than 92 per cent against T ovis. At these dose rates efficacy on egg suppression was 100 per cent for Moniezia and greater than 97 per cent for Trichuris.

  3. Proteomic analysis of Taenia ovis metacestodes by high performance liquid chromatography-coupled tandem mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yadong

    2017-03-15

    Taenia ovis metacestodes reside in the muscle of sheep and goats, and may cause great economic loss due to condemnation of carcasses if not effectively controlled. Although advances have been made in the control of T. ovis infection, our knowledge of T. ovis biology is limited. Herein the protein profiling of T. ovis metacestodes was determined by liquid chromatography-linked tandem mass spectrometry. A total of 966 proteins were identified and 25.1% (188/748) were annotated to be associated with metabolic pathways. Consistently, GO analysis returned a metabolic process (16.27%) as one of two main biological process terms. Moreover, it was found that 24 proteins, including very low-density lipoprotein receptor, enolase, paramyosin and endophilin B1, were abundant in T. ovis metacestodes. These proteins may be associated with motility, metabolism, signaling, stress, drug resistance and immune responses. Furthermore, comparative analysis of 5 cestodes revealed the presence of Taenia-specific enolases. These data provide clues for better understanding of T. ovis biology, which is informative for effective control of infection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. First molecular isolation of Mycoplasma ovis from small ruminants in North Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed R. Rjeibi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Eperythrozoonosis is a small ruminant disease caused by the bacterium Mycoplasma ovis (formerly known as Eperythrozoon ovis. Whilst acute infection in sheep may result in an anaemia and ill thrift syndrome, most animals do not develop clinical signs. Molecular methods were used to compare and evaluate the prevalence of infection with M. ovis in sheep and goats in Tunisia. A total of 739 whole blood samples from 573 sheep and 166 goats were tested for the M. ovis 16S rRNA gene using PCR. The overall prevalence was 6.28% ± 0.019 (36/573. Only sheep were infected with M. ovis (p < 0.001, and the prevalence was significantly higher in central Tunisia (29.2% compared with other regions (p < 0.05. The prevalence revealed significant differences according to breed and bioclimatic zones (p < 0.001. Furthermore, the prevalence in young sheep (35/330; 10.6% was higher than in adults (1/243; 0.41% (p < 0.001. Only sheep of the Barbarine breed were infected, with a prevalence of 11.8% (p < 0.001. This is the first molecular study and genetic characterisation of M. ovis in North African sheep breeds.

  5. Characterization of the complete mitochondrial genomes of two whipworms Trichuris ovis and Trichuris discolor (Nematoda: Trichuridae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guo-Hua; Wang, Yan; Xu, Min-Jun; Zhou, Dong-Hui; Ye, Yong-Gang; Li, Jia-Yuan; Song, Hui-Qun; Lin, Rui-Qing; Zhu, Xing-Quan

    2012-12-01

    For many years, whipworms (Trichuris spp.) have been described with a relatively narrow range of both morphological and biometrical features. Moreover, there has been insufficient discrimination between congeners (or closely related species). In the present study, we determined the complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes of two whipworms Trichuris ovis and Trichuris discolor, compared them and then tested the hypothesis that T. ovis and T. discolor are distinct species by phylogenetic analyses using Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony) based on the deduced amino acid sequences of the mt protein-coding genes. The complete mt genomes of T. ovis and T. discolor were 13,946 bp and 13,904 bp in size, respectively. Both mt genomes are circular, and consist of 37 genes, including 13 genes coding for proteins, 2 genes for rRNA, and 22 genes for tRNA. The gene content and arrangement are identical to that of human and pig whipworms Trichuris trichiura and Trichuris suis. Taken together, these analyses showed genetic distinctiveness and strongly supported the recent proposal that T. ovis and T. discolor are distinct species using nuclear ribosomal DNA and a portion of the mtDNA sequence dataset. The availability of the complete mtDNA sequences of T. ovis and T. discolor provides novel genetic markers for studying the population genetics, diagnostics and molecular epidemiology of T. ovis and T. discolor. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Mannheimia haemolytica serotype A1 exhibits differential pathogenicity in two related species, Ovis canadensis and Ovis aries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dassanayake, Rohana P; Shanthalingam, Sudarvili; Herndon, Caroline N; Lawrence, Paulraj K; Frances Cassirer, E; Potter, Kathleen A; Foreyt, William J; Clinkenbeard, Kenneth D; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2009-02-02

    Mannheimia haemolytica causes pneumonia in both bighorn sheep (BHS, Ovis canadensis) and domestic sheep (DS, Ovis aries). Under experimental conditions, co-pasturing of BHS and DS results in fatal pneumonia in BHS. It is conceivable that certain serotypes of M. haemolytica carried by DS are non-pathogenic to them, but lethal for BHS. M. haemolytica serotypes A1 and A2 are carried by DS in the nasopharynx. However, it is the serotype A2 that predominantly causes pneumonia in DS. The objectives of this study were to determine whether serotype A1 exhibits differential pathogenicity to BHS and DS, and to determine whether leukotoxin (Lkt) secreted by this organism is its primary virulence factor. Three groups each of BHS and DS were intra-tracheally administered either 1 x 10(9)cfu of serotype A1 wild-type (lktA-Wt group), Lkt-deletion mutant of serotype A1-(lktA-Mt group), or saline (control group), respectively. In the lktA-Wt groups, all four BHS died within 48h while none of the DS died during the 2-week study period. In the lktA-Mt groups, none of the BHS or DS died. In the control groups, one DS died due to an unrelated cause. Necropsy and histopathological findings revealed that death of BHS in the lktA-Wt group was due to bilateral, fibrinohemorrhagic pneumonia. Although the A1-Mt-inoculated BHS were clinically normal, on necropsy, lungs of two BHS showed varying degrees of mild chronic pneumonia. These results indicate that M. haemolytica serotype A1 is non-pathogenic to DS, but highly lethal to BHS, and that Lkt is the primary virulence factor of M. haemolytica.

  7. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  8. [Immune response and reproductive consequences in experimentally infected ewes with Brucella ovis during late pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paolicchi, Fernando A; Nuñez, Marta; Fiorentino, María A; Malena, Rosana C; Trangoni, Marcos; Cravero, Silvio; Estein, Silvia M

    2013-01-01

    Ovine brucellosis by Brucella ovis is a highly prevalent disease in Argentina. This study aimed to evaluate the pathogenicity of B. ovis and the serological response in ewes during late pregnancy and in their offspring. Six adult ewes were distributed in two groupsG1 (pregnant females, n = 4) and G2 (nonpregnant females, n = 2). Three pregnant ewes at 15 days prepartum and one nonpregnant eve were inoculated with B. ovis. Sera of sheep and their offspring were analyzed by different serological tests. Samples of cervicovaginal mucus, placenta and milk were studied by bacteriology. A Brucella genus-specific PCR assay was carried out in placenta and milk samples. Placenta samples were hystopathologically processed. g1 females gave birth to live lambs, but one died hours postpartum. Serological techniques employed detected antibodies in serum of inoculated pregnant animal 5 days postchallenge. sera of female controls G1 and G2 remained negative throughout the study. Cervicovaginal mucus of infected ewes in G1 and G2 yielded negative results to bacteriology, but B. ovis was isolated from milk. The PCR assay was positive for the placenta and milk from inoculated pregnant ewes. Histopathology revealed necrotic suppurative placentitis in one placenta. However, although results demonstrated that B. ovis can invade the placenta and mammary gland, this bacterium did not cause abortion when it was inoculated intravenously at 15 days prepartum. B. ovis infection induced an early humoral response in pregnant ewes, but their lambs remained seronegative, indicating that there was no transfer of antibodies in infancy. Placenta colonization and milk excretion of B. ovis involves a potential source of infection for lambs, which could play a role as latent carriers of infection.

  9. Passive transfer in domestic and bighorn lambs Total IgG in ewe sera and colostrum and serum IgG kinetics in lambs following colostrum ingestion are similar in domestic sheep and bighorn sheep (ovis aries and ovis canadensis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pneumonia is a population-limiting disease of bighorn sheep (BHS; Ovis canadensis) and a recognized disease entity in domestic sheep (DS; Ovis aries) worldwide. Respiratory disease in BHS lambs can persist for years after all-age outbreaks, resulting in suppressed lamb recruitment. It has been sugge...

  10. Investigation of hematological and biochemical parameters in small ruminants naturally infected with Babesia ovis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijan Esmaeilnejad

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Babesia ovis plays an important role in causing anemia and kidney dysfunction in affected animals. There are few extensive studies about hematological and biochemical findings of small ruminants' babesiosis caused by B. ovis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of babesiosis on some hematological and biochemical parameters in infected small ruminants with B. ovis. A total of 280 sheep and 122 goats from 40 herds were randomly examined for the presence of B. ovis in blood samples. Of 402 samples, 67 animals (16.7% were positive for B. ovis of which 52 (18.5% were sheep and 15 (12.2% goats, respectively. The infected animals were divided into four subgroups according to parasitemia rates (<1%, 1%, 2%, and 3%. As a control group, 67 uninfected animals were also selected from the same farms. With increase in parasitemia rates, hemoglobin concentration (Hb, packed cell volume (PCV, red blood cells (RBCs, mean corpuscular volume (MCV and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC significantly decreased (P < 0.05, while, total leukocyte count, number of lymphocyte, monocyte, neutrophil and eosinophil showed a significant increase (P < 0.05. Infected animals presented a significant elevation (P < 0.05 of total proteins and significantly lower level (P < 0.05 of albumin compared to non-infected animals. Significant elevation (P < 0.05 of BUN, creatinine, cholestrol, triglyceride, HDL and LDL level were found with parasitemia progression.

  11. Use of exposure history to identify patterns of immunity to pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raina K Plowright

    Full Text Available Individual host immune responses to infectious agents drive epidemic behavior and are therefore central to understanding and controlling infectious diseases. However, important features of individual immune responses, such as the strength and longevity of immunity, can be challenging to characterize, particularly if they cannot be replicated or controlled in captive environments. Our research on bighorn sheep pneumonia elucidates how individual bighorn sheep respond to infection with pneumonia pathogens by examining the relationship between exposure history and survival in situ. Pneumonia is a poorly understood disease that has impeded the recovery of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis following their widespread extirpation in the 1900s. We analyzed the effects of pneumonia-exposure history on survival of 388 radio-collared adults and 753 ewe-lamb pairs. Results from Cox proportional hazards models suggested that surviving ewes develop protective immunity after exposure, but previous exposure in ewes does not protect their lambs during pneumonia outbreaks. Paradoxically, multiple exposures of ewes to pneumonia were associated with diminished survival of their offspring during pneumonia outbreaks. Although there was support for waning and boosting immunity in ewes, models with consistent immunizing exposure were similarly supported. Translocated animals that had not previously been exposed were more likely to die of pneumonia than residents. These results suggest that pneumonia in bighorn sheep can lead to aging populations of immune adults with limited recruitment. Recovery is unlikely to be enhanced by translocating naïve healthy animals into or near populations infected with pneumonia pathogens.

  12. Use of exposure history to identify patterns of immunity to pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plowright, Raina K; Manlove, Kezia; Cassirer, E Frances; Cross, Paul C; Besser, Thomas E; Hudson, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Individual host immune responses to infectious agents drive epidemic behavior and are therefore central to understanding and controlling infectious diseases. However, important features of individual immune responses, such as the strength and longevity of immunity, can be challenging to characterize, particularly if they cannot be replicated or controlled in captive environments. Our research on bighorn sheep pneumonia elucidates how individual bighorn sheep respond to infection with pneumonia pathogens by examining the relationship between exposure history and survival in situ. Pneumonia is a poorly understood disease that has impeded the recovery of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) following their widespread extirpation in the 1900s. We analyzed the effects of pneumonia-exposure history on survival of 388 radio-collared adults and 753 ewe-lamb pairs. Results from Cox proportional hazards models suggested that surviving ewes develop protective immunity after exposure, but previous exposure in ewes does not protect their lambs during pneumonia outbreaks. Paradoxically, multiple exposures of ewes to pneumonia were associated with diminished survival of their offspring during pneumonia outbreaks. Although there was support for waning and boosting immunity in ewes, models with consistent immunizing exposure were similarly supported. Translocated animals that had not previously been exposed were more likely to die of pneumonia than residents. These results suggest that pneumonia in bighorn sheep can lead to aging populations of immune adults with limited recruitment. Recovery is unlikely to be enhanced by translocating naïve healthy animals into or near populations infected with pneumonia pathogens.

  13. Fusobacterium necrophorum in North American Bighorn Sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) Pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanthalingam, Sudarvili; Narayanan, Sanjeevkumar; Batra, Sai Arun; Jegarubee, Bavananthasivam; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2016-07-01

    Fusobacterium necrophorum has been detected in pneumonic bighorn sheep (BHS; Ovis canadensis ) lungs, in addition to the aerobic respiratory pathogens Mannheimia haemolytica , Bibersteinia trehalosi , Pasteurella multocida , and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae . Similar to M. haemolytica , F. necrophorum produces a leukotoxin. Leukotoxin-induced lysis and degranulation of polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs) and macrophages are responsible for acute inflammation and lung tissue damage characteristic of M. haemolytica -caused pneumonia. As one approach in elucidating the role of F. necrophorum in BHS pneumonia, we determined the frequency of the presence of F. necrophorum in archived pneumonic BHS lung tissues, and susceptibility of BHS leukocytes to F. necrophorum leukotoxin. A species-specific PCR assay detected F. necrophorum in 37% of pneumonic BHS lung tissues (total tested n=70). Sequences of PCR amplicons were similar to the less virulent F. necrophorum subsp. funduliforme. Fusobacterium necrophorum leukotoxin exhibited cytotoxicity to BHS PMNs and peripheral blood mononuclear cells. As with the M. haemolytica leukotoxin, F. necrophorum leukotoxin was more toxic to BHS PMNs than domestic sheep PMNs. It is likely that F. necrophorum enters the lungs after M. haemolytica and other aerobic respiratory pathogens enter the lungs and initiate tissue damage, thereby creating a microenvironment that is conducive for anaerobic bacterial growth. In summary, Fusobacterium leukotoxin is highly toxic for BHS leukocytes; however, based on the PCR findings, it is unlikely to play a direct role in the development of BHS pneumonia.

  14. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  15. Nelson's big horn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) trample Agassiz's desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) burrow at a California wind energy facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agha, Mickey; Delaney, David F.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Briggs, Jessica; Austin, Meaghan; Price, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    Research on interactions between Agassiz's desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) and ungulates has focused exclusively on the effects of livestock grazing on tortoises and their habitat (Oldemeyer, 1994). For example, during a 1980 study in San Bernardino County, California, 164 desert tortoise burrows were assessed for vulnerability to trampling by domestic sheep (Ovis aries). Herds of grazing sheep damaged 10% and destroyed 4% of the burrows (Nicholson and Humphreys 1981). In addition, a juvenile desert tortoise was trapped and an adult male was blocked from entering a burrow due to trampling by domestic sheep. Another study found that domestic cattle (Bos taurus) trampled active desert tortoise burrows and vegetation surrounding burrows (Avery and Neibergs 1997). Trampling also has negative impacts on diversity of vegetation and intershrub soil crusts in the desert southwest (Webb and Stielstra 1979). Trampling of important food plants and overgrazing has the potential to create competition between desert tortoises and domestic livestock (Berry 1978; Coombs 1979; Webb and Stielstra 1979).

  16. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  17. Some parasitological, pathological and immunohistochemical examinations in sheep naturally infected by Trichuris Ovis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. T. Iliev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A case of Trichuris ovis infection in a lamb is presented. In June 2012 a herd of 12 infected with T. ovis lambs in Brestnik (Southern Bulgaria were discovered. A diarrhea and loss in body weight in 2 lambs have been observed. Despite antibiotic treatment one of the animals died. Parasitological examination was done. During necropsy of the gastro-intestinal tract, adult worms in the caecum were found. Standart staining and immunohistochemistry were performed to detect the cell population in the affected areas of the caecum

  18. Harnessing cross-species alignment to discover SNPs and generate a draft genome sequence of a bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joshua M; Moore, Stephen S; Stothard, Paul; Liao, Xiaoping; Coltman, David W

    2015-05-20

    Whole genome sequences (WGS) have proliferated as sequencing technology continues to improve and costs decline. While many WGS of model or domestic organisms have been produced, a growing number of non-model species are also being sequenced. In the absence of a reference, construction of a genome sequence necessitates de novo assembly which may be beyond the ability of many labs due to the large volumes of raw sequence data and extensive bioinformatics required. In contrast, the presence of a reference WGS allows for alignment which is more tractable than assembly. Recent work has highlighted that the reference need not come from the same species, potentially enabling a wide array of species WGS to be constructed using cross-species alignment. Here we report on the creation a draft WGS from a single bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using alignment to the closely related domestic sheep (Ovis aries). Two sequencing libraries on SOLiD platforms yielded over 865 million reads, and combined alignment to the domestic sheep reference resulted in a nearly complete sequence (95% coverage of the reference) at an average of 12x read depth (104 SD). From this we discovered over 15 million variants and annotated them relative to the domestic sheep reference. We then conducted an enrichment analysis of those SNPs showing fixed differences between the reference and sequenced individual and found significant differences in a number of gene ontology (GO) terms, including those associated with reproduction, muscle properties, and bone deposition. Our results demonstrate that cross-species alignment enables the creation of novel WGS for non-model organisms. The bighorn sheep WGS will provide a resource for future resequencing studies or comparative genomics.

  19. First record of Taenia ovis krabbei muscle cysts in muskoxen from Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raundrup, Katrine; Al-Sabi, Mohammad M; Kapel, Christian Moliin Outzen

    2012-01-01

    A first record of Taenia ovis krabbei muscle cysts in a muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) from the Kangerlussuaq population in West Greenland suggests that introduced muskoxen now contributes to the transmission of this parasite in addition to previous observations from caribou (Rangtfer tarandus...

  20. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  1. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  2. A high resolution atlas of gene expression in the domestic sheep (Ovis aries).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Emily L; Bush, Stephen J; McCulloch, Mary E B; Farquhar, Iseabail L; Young, Rachel; Lefevre, Lucas; Pridans, Clare; Tsang, Hiu G; Wu, Chunlei; Afrasiabi, Cyrus; Watson, Mick; Whitelaw, C Bruce; Freeman, Tom C; Summers, Kim M; Archibald, Alan L; Hume, David A

    2017-09-01

    Sheep are a key source of meat, milk and fibre for the global livestock sector, and an important biomedical model. Global analysis of gene expression across multiple tissues has aided genome annotation and supported functional annotation of mammalian genes. We present a large-scale RNA-Seq dataset representing all the major organ systems from adult sheep and from several juvenile, neonatal and prenatal developmental time points. The Ovis aries reference genome (Oar v3.1) includes 27,504 genes (20,921 protein coding), of which 25,350 (19,921 protein coding) had detectable expression in at least one tissue in the sheep gene expression atlas dataset. Network-based cluster analysis of this dataset grouped genes according to their expression pattern. The principle of 'guilt by association' was used to infer the function of uncharacterised genes from their co-expression with genes of known function. We describe the overall transcriptional signatures present in the sheep gene expression atlas and assign those signatures, where possible, to specific cell populations or pathways. The findings are related to innate immunity by focusing on clusters with an immune signature, and to the advantages of cross-breeding by examining the patterns of genes exhibiting the greatest expression differences between purebred and crossbred animals. This high-resolution gene expression atlas for sheep is, to our knowledge, the largest transcriptomic dataset from any livestock species to date. It provides a resource to improve the annotation of the current reference genome for sheep, presenting a model transcriptome for ruminants and insight into gene, cell and tissue function at multiple developmental stages.

  3. Epidemiology of Oestrus ovis (Diptera: Oestridae in sheep in Botucatu, State of São Paulo Epidemiologia de Oestrus ovis (Diptera: Oestridae em ovinos em Botucatu, São Paulo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruna Fernanda da Silva

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal factors that influence Oestrus ovis infestation in sheep were determined in Botucatu, State of São Paulo, Southwestern Brazil, from April 2008 to March 2011. Two tracer lambs were monthly exposed to natural infestation by O. ovis larvae for 28 consecutive days, by grazing with a sheep flock. Tracer animals were then euthanized and the larvae of O. ovis recovered from nasal and sinus cavities. Of the 72 tracer lambs, 50% were infested with O. ovis larvae and the mean intensity of infestation per head infested was 16.8 larvae, with an average of 7.8 L1, 5.3 L2 and 3.7 L3. O. ovis larvae were present during the four seasons of the year, but the mean larval burden was significantly higher during the spring and summer months, compared to winter (P Os fatores sazonais que influenciam a infestação por larvas de Oestrus ovis, foram determinados no período de abril de 2008 a março de 2011, em ovinos criados em Botucatu, São Paulo, região Sudeste do Brasil. Mensalmente, dois cordeiros traçadores permaneceram em pastejo com um rebanho ovino durante 28 dias consecutivos, expostos à infestação natural por larvas de O. ovis. Em seguida, os cordeiros foram sacrificados, e as larvas de O. ovis recuperadas da cavidade nasal e seios frontais. Dos 72 cordeiros traçadores, 50% estavam infestados por larvas de O. ovis, com intensidade média de infestação de 16,8 larvas/cabeça infestada, com média de 7,8 L1, 5,3 L2 e 3,7 L3. As larvas de O. ovis foram recuperadas durante as quatro estações do ano, mas o número médio de larvas foi significativamente superior durante os meses de primavera e verão comparado aos meses de inverno (P < 0,05. A maior taxa de recuperação larval coincidiu com temperaturas médias entre 20 °C e 25 °C e umidade relativa do ar por volta de 70%. Os resultados sugerem que a evolução e desenvolvimento de O. ovis ocorre praticamente durante o ano inteiro, mas a infestação é mais frequente nos meses de

  4. Interactions between Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep Ovis canadensis canadensis and Domestic Sheep Ovis aries and the Biological, Social, Economic, and Legal Implications of these Interactions on USDA Forest Service Lands in the Evanston/Mt. View Ranger District

    OpenAIRE

    Herrera, Ashly Nicole

    2012-01-01

    Strong evidence exists indicating domestic sheep (Ovis aries) can infect Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis), a United States Forest Service (USFS) Region 4 sensitive species, with pneumonia (Callan 1991; Foreyt 1989, 1992, 1994; Foreyt and Lagerquist 1996; George et al 2008; Wehausen et al. 2011). Since the transmission of the pneumonic bacteria between the domestic and wild sheep is a result of bighorn sheep coming into contact with the bacteria carried in the mucous m...

  5. Olematu olemine. Kulešovi efektist seoses Eisensteini juubeliga / Lauri Kärk ; tõlkinud Kaia Sisask

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Kärk, Lauri, 1954-

    1998-01-01

    Kieli "Cinachea" festivali raames peetud filmiajaloo seminari (22. aprill 1998) teeside põhjal; lisa : Lev Kulešovi elulugu ja filmograafia, tõlge Ephraim Katzi raamatust "The Film Encyclopedia". New York, 1998

  6. Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

  7. Brucella ovis: invasion, traffic, virulence factors and immune responseBrucella ovis: invasão, tráfego, fatores de virulência e resposta imune

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Marcelo Azevedo de Paula Antunes

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brucellosis remains an economic problem in animals and public health. Worldwide ovine brucellosis caused by Brucella ovis is considered a major cause of infertility in sheep. The factors responsible for persistence of the agent in these locations are not known, as well as the mechanisms involved in immune defense and possibly the persistence of the agent. Brucella spp. induces moderate inflammatory response. The nature of the intracellular agent stimulates immune response of the type 1 helper T lymphocytes. Studies of the pathogenesis of ovine brucellosis are scarce. Recent developments have shown that the inflammatory response induced by moderate brucelas represent probably the result of an attempt to escape the immune response and suppression of host immune response. Were reviewed by the mechanisms described by brucelas and Brucella ovis for penetration into the host, escape of the immune response and the immune response generated by the infection. A brucelose permanece como problema econômico em animais e de saúde pública. Em todo o mundo a brucelose ovina ocasionada pela Brucella ovis é considerada uma das principais causas de infertilidade em ovinos. Os fatores responsáveis pela persistência do agente nestes locais não são conhecidos, bem como os mecanismos imunes envolvidos na defesa e eventualmente na persistência do agente. Brucella spp. induz resposta inflamatória moderada. A natureza intracelular do agente estimula resposta imune celular do tipo linfócito T helper 1. Os estudos de patogenia da brucelose ovina são escassos. Recentes avanços demonstraram que a resposta inflamatória moderada induzida pelas brucelas representam provavelmente o resultado de tentativa de escape da resposta imune e supressão da resposta imune hospedeira. Foram revisados os mecanismos descritos pelas brucelas e pela Brucella ovis para penetração no hospedeiro, escape da resposta imune, bem como a resposta imunológica gerada pela infecção.

  8. Respuesta humoral y consecuencias reproductivas en ovejas desafiadas con Brucella ovis al final de la gestación Immune response and reproductive consequences in experimentally infected ewes with Brucella ovis during late pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando A Paolicchi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available La brucelosis ovina por Brucella ovis es una enfermedad de prevalencia alta en Argentina. Para evaluar la patogenicidad de B. ovis y la respuesta serológica durante el último mes de gestación, 6 ovejas se distribuyeron en dos grupos: G1, ovejas preñadas, n = 4 y G2, ovejas no preñadas, n = 2. Tres ovejas del G1 (15 días preparto y una del G2 fueron inoculadas con B. ovis. Se analizaron muestras de suero mediante diferentes pruebas serológicas. Se realizó aislamiento y PCR a partir de mucus cérvico-vaginal (mcv, placenta y leche. En las muestras de placenta se realizó histopatología. Las hembras del G1 parieron corderos vivos; se detectaron anticuerpos en las ovejas desafiadas del G1 a partir de los 5 días posinoculación. El mcv de las ovejas desafiadas resultó negativo al aislamiento en ambos grupos. Las muestras de leche del G1 fueron positivas por cultivo y PCR a B. ovis. La técnica de PCR resultó positiva en las placentas de las ovejas desafiadas del G1. La histopatología reveló una placentitis necrótica supurativa en una de las ovejas desafiadas. El desafío con B. ovis preparto resultó en la invasión de la placenta y de la glándula mamaria, con la consecuente excreción de la bacteria por leche. La infección con B. ovis indujo una respuesta humoral temprana en las ovejas. La colonización de la placenta por B. ovis y la excreción de la bacteria por la leche sugieren un potencial riesgo de infección activa para los corderos y la posibilidad de que estos se comporten como portadores latentes de la infección.Ovine brucellosis by Brucella ovis is a highly prevalent disease in Argentina. This study aimed to evaluate the pathogenicity of B. ovis and the serological response in ewes during late pregnancy and in their offspring. Six adult ewes were distributed in two groupsGI (pregnant females, n = 4 and G2 (nonpregnant females, n = 2. Three pregnant ewes at 15 days prepartum and one nonpregnant eve were inoculated with B

  9. Studies on antigenic cross-reactivity of Trichuris ovis with host mucosal antigens in goat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gautam Patra

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To ascertain whether immunodominant antigens of Trichuris ovis might share and cross react with host molecule. Methods: Two crude protein preparations from anterior and posterior parts of Trichuris ovis were characterized along with host mucosal antigen by double immunodiffusion, sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and western blotting technique. Conventional scanning electron microscopy was performed as per standard procedure. Results: Sharp and distinct bands of three antigens have been found in double immunodiffusion using hyperimmune serum raised in rabbit indicating the presence of specific antibody against each antigen. All three antigens have shown major and minor bands with molecular weight ranging from 15 to 110 kDa during sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Conclusions: The antigenic cross-reactivity was thought to result from shared antigens. The existence of paracloacal papillae found in the anterior part of the male was not a unique feature for species differentiation.

  10. Role of carriers in the transmission of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis)

    OpenAIRE

    Raghavan, Bindu; Erickson, Kayla; Kugadas, Abirami; Batra, Sai A.; Call, Douglas R.; Davis, Margaret A.; Foreyt, William J.; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT In the absence of livestock contact, recurring lamb mortality in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations previously exposed to pneumonia indicates the likely presence of carriers of pneumonia-causing pathogens, and possibly inadequate maternally derived immunity. To investigate this problem we commingled na?ve, pregnant ewes (n=3) with previously exposed rams (n=2). Post-commingling, all ewes and lambs born to them acquired pneumonia-causing pathogens (leukotoxin-producing Pasteu...

  11. Host transcription factors in the immediate pro-inflammatory response to the parasitic mite Psoroptes ovis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart T G Burgess

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Sheep scab, caused by infestation with the ectoparasitic mite Psoroptes ovis, results in the rapid development of cutaneous inflammation and leads to the crusted skin lesions characteristic of the disease. We described previously the global host transcriptional response to infestation with P. ovis, elucidating elements of the inflammatory processes which lead to the development of a rapid and profound immune response. However, the mechanisms by which this response is instigated remain unclear. To identify novel methods of intervention a better understanding of the early events involved in triggering the immune response is essential. The objective of this study was to gain a clearer understanding of the mechanisms and signaling pathways involved in the instigation of the immediate pro-inflammatory response. RESULTS: Through a combination of transcription factor binding site enrichment and pathway analysis we identified key roles for a number of transcription factors in the instigation of cutaneous inflammation. In particular, defined roles were elucidated for the transcription factors NF-kB and AP-1 in the orchestration of the early pro-inflammatory response, with these factors being implicated in the activation of a suite of inflammatory mediators. CONCLUSIONS: Interrogation of the host temporal response to P. ovis infestation has enabled the further identification of the mechanisms underlying the development of the immediate host pro-inflammatory response. This response involves key regulatory roles for the transcription factors NF-kB and AP-1. Pathway analysis demonstrated that the activation of these transcription factors may be triggered following a host LPS-type response, potentially involving TLR4-signalling and also lead to the intriguing possibility that this could be triggered by a P. ovis allergen.

  12. External Ophthalmomyiasis Caused by Oestrus ovis: A Rare Case Report from India

    OpenAIRE

    Pandey, Anita; Madan, Molly; Asthana, Ashish K.; Das, Anupam; Kumar, Sandeep; Jain, Kirti

    2009-01-01

    Myiasis of different organs has been reported off and on from various regions in the world. We report a human case of external ophthalmomyiasis caused by the larvae of a sheep nasal botfly, Oestrus ovis, for the first time from Meerut city in Western Uttar Pradesh, India. A 25-year-old farmer presented with severe symptoms of conjunctivitis. The larvae, 3 in number, were observed in the bulbar conjunctiva, and following removal the symptoms of eye inflammation improved within a few hours.

  13. Antigenic Cross-reactivity among Haemonchus contortus, Oesophagostomum columbianum and Trichuris ovis of Goat

    OpenAIRE

    JAS, Ruma; GHOSH, Joydeb; DAS, Kinsuk

    2016-01-01

    Background: Cross antigenicity is the major problem in developing a reliable tool for immunodiagnosis and immunoprophylaxis of parasitic diseases. Mixed infection due to different types of gastrointestinal parasites is more common than single species infection under field condition.Methods: The present study was undertaken to detect antigenic cross-reactivity among Haemonchus contortus, Oesophagostomum columbianum and Trichuris ovis of goats by SDS-PAGE and western blot analysis using hyperim...

  14. Superoxide dismutase from Trichuris ovis, inhibiton by benzimidazoles and pyrimidine derivatives

    OpenAIRE

    Sanchez-Moreno, M.; Garcia-Rejon, L.; Salas, I.; Osuna, A.; Monteoliva, M.

    1992-01-01

    Three superoxide dismutase isoenzymes of different cellular location were detected in an homogenate of Thrichuris ovis. Each of these molecular forms was purified by differential centrifugation and precipitation with ammonium sulphate, followed by chromatography on DEAE-cellulose and Sephadex G-75 columns. The activity levels of the two molecular forms detected in the mitochondrial (one cyanide sensitive Cu-Zn-SOD and the other cyanide intensitive Mn-Sod were higher than that of the superoxid...

  15. The SAVI vulnerability assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winblad, A.E.

    1987-01-01

    The assessment model ''Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion'' (SAVI) presented in this report is a PC-based path analysis model. It can provide estimates of protection system effectiveness (or vulnerability) against a spectrum of outsider threats including collusion with an insider adversary. It calculates one measure of system effectiveness, the probability of interruption P(I), for all potential adversary paths. SAVI can perform both theft and sabotage vulnerability analyses. For theft, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted either before they can accomplish removal of the target material from its normal location or removal from the site boundary. For sabotage, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted before completion of their sabotage task

  16. Irrigation in dose assessments models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, Ulla; Barkefors, Catarina [Studsvik RadWaste AB, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    2004-05-01

    SKB has carried out several safety analyses for repositories for radioactive waste, one of which was SR 97, a multi-site study concerned with a future deep bedrock repository for high-level waste. In case of future releases due to unforeseen failure of the protective multiple barrier system, radionuclides may be transported with groundwater and may reach the biosphere. Assessments of doses have to be carried out with a long-term perspective. Specific models are therefore employed to estimate consequences to man. It has been determined that the main pathway for nuclides from groundwater or surface water to soil is via irrigation. Irrigation may cause contamination of crops directly by e.g. interception or rain-splash, and indirectly via root-uptake from contaminated soil. The exposed people are in many safety assessments assumed to be self-sufficient, i.e. their food is produced locally where the concentration of radionuclides may be the highest. Irrigation therefore plays an important role when estimating consequences. The present study is therefore concerned with a more extensive analysis of the role of irrigation for possible future doses to people living in the area surrounding a repository. Current irrigation practices in Sweden are summarised, showing that vegetables and potatoes are the most common crops for irrigation. In general, however, irrigation is not so common in Sweden. The irrigation model used in the latest assessments is described. A sensitivity analysis is performed showing that, as expected, interception of irrigation water and retention on vegetation surfaces are important parameters. The parameters used to describe this are discussed. A summary is also given how irrigation is proposed to be handled in the international BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) project and in models like TAME and BIOTRAC. Similarities and differences are pointed out. Some numerical results are presented showing that surface contamination in general gives the

  17. Irrigation in dose assessments models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, Ulla; Barkefors, Catarina

    2004-05-01

    SKB has carried out several safety analyses for repositories for radioactive waste, one of which was SR 97, a multi-site study concerned with a future deep bedrock repository for high-level waste. In case of future releases due to unforeseen failure of the protective multiple barrier system, radionuclides may be transported with groundwater and may reach the biosphere. Assessments of doses have to be carried out with a long-term perspective. Specific models are therefore employed to estimate consequences to man. It has been determined that the main pathway for nuclides from groundwater or surface water to soil is via irrigation. Irrigation may cause contamination of crops directly by e.g. interception or rain-splash, and indirectly via root-uptake from contaminated soil. The exposed people are in many safety assessments assumed to be self-sufficient, i.e. their food is produced locally where the concentration of radionuclides may be the highest. Irrigation therefore plays an important role when estimating consequences. The present study is therefore concerned with a more extensive analysis of the role of irrigation for possible future doses to people living in the area surrounding a repository. Current irrigation practices in Sweden are summarised, showing that vegetables and potatoes are the most common crops for irrigation. In general, however, irrigation is not so common in Sweden. The irrigation model used in the latest assessments is described. A sensitivity analysis is performed showing that, as expected, interception of irrigation water and retention on vegetation surfaces are important parameters. The parameters used to describe this are discussed. A summary is also given how irrigation is proposed to be handled in the international BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) project and in models like TAME and BIOTRAC. Similarities and differences are pointed out. Some numerical results are presented showing that surface contamination in general gives the

  18. Species-specific nested PCR as a diagnostic tool for Brucella ovis infection in rams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Costa

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to evaluate a species-specific nested PCR based on a previously described species-specific PCR for detection of B. ovis in semen and urine samples of experimentally infected rams. The performance of the species-specific nested PCR was compared with the results of a genus-specific PCR. Fourteen rams were experimentally infected with the Brucella ovis REO 198 strain and samples of semen and urine were collected every week up to 180 days post infection. Out of 83 semen samples collected, 42 (50.6% were positive for the species-specific nested PCR, and 23 (27.7% were positive for the genus-specific PCR. Out of 75 urine samples, 49 (65.3% were positive for the species-specific nested PCR, whereas 11 (14.6% were genus-specific PCR positive. Species-specific nested PCR was significantly more sensitive (P<0.001 than the genus-specific PCR in semen and urine from experimentally infected rams. In conclusion, the species-specific nested PCR developed in this study may be used as a diagnostic tool for the detection of B. ovis in semen and urine samples from suspected rams.

  19. Cloisonné kidney in mouflon sheep (Ovis orientalis musimon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hervás, J.

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available This study describes a case of cloisonné kidney associated with infection by Babesia ovis in a wild mouflon (Ovis orientalis musimonj found dead in year in eastern Sierra Morena (Andalusia, Spain. The major macroscopic lesions were a icteric coloration in ocular and oral mucosa, and b dark metal coloration on the kidneys' external surface. Intense dark coloration alternating with intense greyish strips was observed on renal cortex sections. Blood samples were collected for haematological and parasitological analyses, as well as samples from various organs for histopathological examination. Infection by B. ovis was confirmed by using the Polymerase Chain Reaction test (PCR. Histopathological examination revealed tubulonephrosis associated with thickening of the basal membrane of the convoluted portions of the renal tubules (both proximal and distal, which took on an intense brownish pigmentation. These renal lesions have been described as "cloisonné" kidney. Cloisonné kidneys show uncommon coloring of the renal tubular system, associated with ferritin and hemosiderin deposits in these structures resulting from a chronic hemolitic process (hemoparasites, toxins, etc.. In our case, hemolitic phenomena are associated with infection by B. ovis. The seroprevalence of this hemoparasite in wild mouflon populations in other regions of Spain (Catalonia is up to 15%.

    [fr]
    Nous étudions un cas de rein cloisonné associé à l'infection par Babesia ovis sur un mouflon sauvage (Ovis orientalis musimon qui a été trouvé la même année dans la partie orientale de la Sierra Morena (Andalousie, Espagne. Les principales lésions macroscopiques étaient: a coloration ictérique sur les muqueuses oculaire et orale, et b coloration métallique foncée sur la partie extérieure du rein. Cette coloration foncée intense alternait avec des bandes grisâtres dans les sections du cortex rénal. Nous avons pris

  20. In vitro prion protein conversion suggests risk of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher J.; Morawski, A.R.; Carlson, C.M.; Chang, H.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) affect both domestic sheep (scrapie) and captive and free-ranging cervids (chronic wasting disease; CWD). The geographical range of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis; BHS) overlaps with states or provinces that have contained scrapie-positive sheep or goats and areas with present epizootics of CWD in cervids. No TSEs have been documented in BHS, but the susceptibility of this species to TSEs remains unknown. Results: We acquired a library of BHS tissues and found no evidence of preexisting TSEs in these animals. The prion protein gene (Prnp) in all BHS in our library was identical to scrapie-susceptible domestic sheep (A136R 154Q171). Using an in vitro prion protein conversion assay, which has been previously used to assess TSE species barriers and, in our study appears to recollect known species barriers in mice, we assessed the potential transmissibility of TSEs to BHS. As expected based upon Prnp genotype, we observed BHS prion protein conversion by classical scrapie agent and evidence for a species barrier between transmissible mink encephalopathy (TME) and BHS. Interestingly, our data suggest that the species barrier of BHS to white-tailed deer or wapiti CWD agents is likely low. We also used protein misfolding cyclic amplification to confirm that CWD, but not TME, can template prion protein misfolding in A136R 154Q171genotype sheep. Conclusions: Our results indicate the in vitro conversion assay used in our study does mimic the species barrier of mice to the TSE agents that we tested. Based on Prnp genotype and results from conversion assays, BHS are likely to be susceptible to infection by classical scrapie. Despite mismatches in amino acids thought to modulate prion protein conversion, our data indicate that A136R154Q171 genotype sheep prion protein is misfolded by CWD agent, suggesting that these animals could be susceptible to CWD. Further investigation of TSE transmissibility to BHS, including

  1. Differential Susceptibility of Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis) and Domestic Sheep (Ovis aries) Neutrophils to Mannheimia haemolytica Leukotoxin is not due to Differential Expression of Cell Surface CD18.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dassanayake, Rohana P; Shanthalingam, Sudarvili; Liu, Weiguo; Casas, Eduardo; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2017-07-01

    Bighornsheep ( Ovis canadensis ) are more susceptible to pneumonia caused by Mannheimia haemolytica than are domestic sheep ( Ovis aries ). Leukotoxin produced by M. haemolytica is the principal virulence factor involved in pneumonia pathogenesis. Although leukotoxin is cytolytic to all subsets of ruminant leukocytes, neutrophils are the most susceptible subset. Bighorn sheep neutrophils are four- to eightfold more susceptible to leukotoxin-induced cytolysis than are domestic sheep neutrophils. We hypothesized that the higher susceptibility of bighorn sheep neutrophils, in comparison to domestic sheep neutrophils, is due to higher expression of CD18, the receptor for leukotoxin on leukocytes. Our objective was to quantify CD18 expression on neutrophils of bighorn sheep and domestic sheep. Cell-surface CD18 expression on bighorn sheep and domestic sheep neutrophils was measured as antibody binding capacity of cells by flow cytometric analysis with two fluorochrome-conjugated anti-CD18 monoclonal antibodies (BAQ30A and HUH82A) and microspheres. Contrary to our expectations, CD18 expression was higher (Psheep neutrophils in comparison to bighorn sheep neutrophils. These findings suggest that the higher in vitro susceptibility to leukotoxin of bighorn sheep neutrophils compared to domestic sheep neutrophils is not due to higher expression of the leukotoxin receptor CD18 on bighorn sheep neutrophils.

  2. Development of a cDNA microarray for the measurement of gene expression in the sheep scab mite Psoroptes ovis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burgess Stewart TG

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sheep scab is caused by the ectoparasitic mite Psoroptes ovis which initiates a profound cutaneous inflammatory response, leading to the development of the skin lesions which are characteristic of the disease. Existing control strategies rely upon injectable endectocides and acaricidal dips but concerns over residues, eco-toxicity and the development of acaricide resistance limit the sustainability of this approach. In order to identify alternative means of disease control, a deeper understanding of both the parasite and its interaction with the host are required. Methods Herein we describe the development and utilisation of an annotated P. ovis cDNA microarray containing 3,456 elements for the measurement of gene expression in this economically important ectoparasite. The array consists of 981 P. ovis EST sequences printed in triplicate along with 513 control elements. Array performance was validated through the analysis of gene expression differences between fed and starved P. ovis mites. Results Sequences represented on the array include homologues of major house dust mite allergens and tick salivary proteins, along with factors potentially involved in mite reproduction and xenobiotic metabolism. In order to validate the performance of this unique resource under biological conditions we used the array to analyse gene expression differences between fed and starved P. ovis mites. These analyses identified a number of house dust mite allergen homologues up-regulated in fed mites and P. ovis transcripts involved in stress responses, autophagy and chemosensory perception up-regulated in starved mites. Conclusion The P. ovis cDNA microarray described here has been shown to be both robust and reproducible and will enable future studies to analyse gene expression in this important ectoparasite.

  3. Behavior model for performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown-VanHoozer, S. A.

    1999-01-01

    Every individual channels information differently based on their preference of the sensory modality or representational system (visual auditory or kinesthetic) we tend to favor most (our primary representational system (PRS)). Therefore, some of us access and store our information primarily visually first, some auditorily, and others kinesthetically (through feel and touch); which in turn establishes our information processing patterns and strategies and external to internal (and subsequently vice versa) experiential language representation. Because of the different ways we channel our information, each of us will respond differently to a task--the way we gather and process the external information (input), our response time (process), and the outcome (behavior). Traditional human models of decision making and response time focus on perception, cognitive and motor systems stimulated and influenced by the three sensory modalities, visual, auditory and kinesthetic. For us, these are the building blocks to knowing how someone is thinking. Being aware of what is taking place and how to ask questions is essential in assessing performance toward reducing human errors. Existing models give predications based on time values or response times for a particular event, and may be summed and averaged for a generalization of behavior(s). However, by our not establishing a basic understanding of the foundation of how the behavior was predicated through a decision making strategy process, predicative models are overall inefficient in their analysis of the means by which behavior was generated. What is seen is the end result

  4. Behavior model for performance assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borwn-VanHoozer, S. A.

    1999-07-23

    Every individual channels information differently based on their preference of the sensory modality or representational system (visual auditory or kinesthetic) we tend to favor most (our primary representational system (PRS)). Therefore, some of us access and store our information primarily visually first, some auditorily, and others kinesthetically (through feel and touch); which in turn establishes our information processing patterns and strategies and external to internal (and subsequently vice versa) experiential language representation. Because of the different ways we channel our information, each of us will respond differently to a task--the way we gather and process the external information (input), our response time (process), and the outcome (behavior). Traditional human models of decision making and response time focus on perception, cognitive and motor systems stimulated and influenced by the three sensory modalities, visual, auditory and kinesthetic. For us, these are the building blocks to knowing how someone is thinking. Being aware of what is taking place and how to ask questions is essential in assessing performance toward reducing human errors. Existing models give predications based on time values or response times for a particular event, and may be summed and averaged for a generalization of behavior(s). However, by our not establishing a basic understanding of the foundation of how the behavior was predicated through a decision making strategy process, predicative models are overall inefficient in their analysis of the means by which behavior was generated. What is seen is the end result.

  5. Using visuo-kinetic virtual reality to induce illusory spinal movement: the MoOVi Illusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel S. Harvie

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background Illusions that alter perception of the body provide novel opportunities to target brain-based contributions to problems such as persistent pain. One example of this, mirror therapy, uses vision to augment perceived movement of a painful limb to treat pain. Since mirrors can’t be used to induce augmented neck or other spinal movement, we aimed to test whether such an illusion could be achieved using virtual reality, in advance of testing its potential therapeutic benefit. We hypothesised that perceived head rotation would depend on visually suggested movement. Method In a within-subjects repeated measures experiment, 24 healthy volunteers performed neck movements to 50o of rotation, while a virtual reality system delivered corresponding visual feedback that was offset by a factor of 50%–200%—the Motor Offset Visual Illusion (MoOVi—thus simulating more or less movement than that actually occurring. At 50o of real-world head rotation, participants pointed in the direction that they perceived they were facing. The discrepancy between actual and perceived direction was measured and compared between conditions. The impact of including multisensory (auditory and visual feedback, the presence of a virtual body reference, and the use of 360o immersive virtual reality with and without three-dimensional properties, was also investigated. Results Perception of head movement was dependent on visual-kinaesthetic feedback (p = 0.001, partial eta squared = 0.17. That is, altered visual feedback caused a kinaesthetic drift in the direction of the visually suggested movement. The magnitude of the drift was not moderated by secondary variables such as the addition of illusory auditory feedback, the presence of a virtual body reference, or three-dimensionality of the scene. Discussion Virtual reality can be used to augment perceived movement and body position, such that one can perform a small movement, yet perceive a large one. The MoOVi

  6. Novel immune-modulator identified by a rapid, functional screen of the parapoxvirus ovis (Orf virus genome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McGuire Michael J

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The success of new sequencing technologies and informatic methods for identifying genes has made establishing gene product function a critical rate limiting step in progressing the molecular sciences. We present a method to functionally mine genomes for useful activities in vivo, using an unusual property of a member of the poxvirus family to demonstrate this screening approach. Results The genome of Parapoxvirus ovis (Orf virus was sequenced, annotated, and then used to PCR-amplify its open-reading-frames. Employing a cloning-independent protocol, a viral expression-library was rapidly built and arrayed into sub-library pools. These were directly delivered into mice as expressible cassettes and assayed for an immune-modulating activity associated with parapoxvirus infection. The product of the B2L gene, a homolog of vaccinia F13L, was identified as the factor eliciting immune cell accumulation at sites of skin inoculation. Administration of purified B2 protein also elicited immune cell accumulation activity, and additionally was found to serve as an adjuvant for antigen-specific responses. Co-delivery of the B2L gene with an influenza gene-vaccine significantly improved protection in mice. Furthermore, delivery of the B2L expression construct, without antigen, non-specifically reduced tumor growth in murine models of cancer. Conclusion A streamlined, functional approach to genome-wide screening of a biological activity in vivo is presented. Its application to screening in mice for an immune activity elicited by the pathogen genome of Parapoxvirus ovis yielded a novel immunomodulator. In this inverted discovery method, it was possible to identify the adjuvant responsible for a function of interest prior to a mechanistic study of the adjuvant. The non-specific immune activity of this modulator, B2, is similar to that associated with administration of inactivated particles to a host or to a live viral infection. Administration

  7. Genetic variability among Trichuris ovis isolates from different hosts in Guangdong Province, China revealed by sequences of three mitochondrial genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Liu, Guo-Hua; Li, Jia-Yuan; Xu, Min-Jun; Ye, Yong-Gang; Zhou, Dong-Hui; Song, Hui-Qun; Lin, Rui-Qing; Zhu, Xing-Quan

    2013-02-01

    This study examined sequence variation in three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) regions, namely cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1), NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5 (nad5) and cytochrome b (cytb), among Trichuris ovis isolates from different hosts in Guangdong Province, China. A portion of the cox1 (pcox1), nad5 (pnad5) and cytb (pcytb) genes was amplified separately from individual whipworms by PCR, and was subjected to sequencing from both directions. The size of the sequences of pcox1, pnad5 and pcytb was 618, 240 and 464 bp, respectively. Although the intra-specific sequence variations within T. ovis were 0-0.8% for pcox1, 0-0.8% for pnad5 and 0-1.9% for pcytb, the inter-specific sequence differences among members of the genus Trichuris were significantly higher, being 24.3-26.5% for pcox1, 33.7-56.4% for pnad5 and 24.8-26.1% for pcytb, respectively. Phylogenetic analyses using combined sequences of pcox1, pnad5 and pcytb, with three different computational algorithms (maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference), indicated that all of the T. ovis isolates grouped together with high statistical support. These findings demonstrated the existence of intra-specific variation in mtDNA sequences among T. ovis isolates from different hosts, and have implications for studying molecular epidemiology and population genetics of T. ovis.

  8. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  9. Disease and predation: sorting out causes of a bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis decline.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua B Smith

    Full Text Available Estimating survival and documenting causes and timing of mortality events in neonate bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis improves understanding of population ecology and factors influencing recruitment. During 2010-2012, we captured and radiocollared 74 neonates in the Black Hills, South Dakota, of which 95% (70 died before 52 weeks of age. Pneumonia (36% was the leading cause of mortality followed by predation (30%. We used known fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate weekly survival rates and investigate the influence of intrinsic variables on 52-week survival. Model {S1 wk, 2-8 wks, >8 wks} had the lowest AIC c (Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size value, indicating that age (3-stage age-interval: 1 week, 2-8 weeks, and >8 weeks best explained survival. Weekly survival estimates for 1 week, 2-8 weeks, and >8 weeks were 0.81 (95% CI = 0.70-0.88, 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81-0.90, and 0.94 (95% CI = 0.91-0.96, respectively. Overall probability of surviving 52 weeks was 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01-0.07. Of 70 documented mortalities, 21% occurred during the first week, 55% during weeks 2-8, and 23% occurred >8 weeks of age. We found pneumonia and predation were temporally heterogeneous with lambs most susceptible to predation during the first 2-3 weeks of life, while the greatest risk from pneumonia occurred from weeks 4-8. Our results indicated pneumonia was the major factor limiting recruitment followed by predation. Mortality from predation may have been partly compensatory to pneumonia and its effects were less pronounced as alternative prey became available. Given the high rates of pneumonia-caused mortality we observed, and the apparent lack of pneumonia-causing pathogens in bighorn populations in the western Black Hills, management activities should be geared towards eliminating contact between diseased and healthy populations.

  10. Disease and predation: Sorting out causes of a bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Joshua B.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating survival and documenting causes and timing of mortality events in neonate bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) improves understanding of population ecology and factors influencing recruitment. During 2010–2012, we captured and radiocollared 74 neonates in the Black Hills, South Dakota, of which 95% (70) died before 52 weeks of age. Pneumonia (36%) was the leading cause of mortality followed by predation (30%). We used known fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate weekly survival rates and investigate the influence of intrinsic variables on 52-week survival. Model {S1 wk, 2–8 wks, >8 wks} had the lowest AICc (Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) value, indicating that age (3-stage age-interval: 1 week, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks) best explained survival. Weekly survival estimates for 1 week, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks were 0.81 (95% CI = 0.70–0.88), 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81–0.90), and 0.94 (95% CI = 0.91–0.96), respectively. Overall probability of surviving 52 weeks was 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01–0.07). Of 70 documented mortalities, 21% occurred during the first week, 55% during weeks 2–8, and 23% occurred >8 weeks of age. We found pneumonia and predation were temporally heterogeneous with lambs most susceptible to predation during the first 2–3 weeks of life, while the greatest risk from pneumonia occurred from weeks 4–8. Our results indicated pneumonia was the major factor limiting recruitment followed by predation. Mortality from predation may have been partly compensatory to pneumonia and its effects were less pronounced as alternative prey became available. Given the high rates of pneumonia-caused mortality we observed, and the apparent lack of pneumonia-causing pathogens in bighorn populations in the western Black Hills, management activities should be geared towards eliminating contact between diseased and healthy populations.

  11. Research of antibodies anti-brucella ovis in ovine the eight city of recôncavo baiano Detecção de anticorpos anti-"Brucella ovis" em ovinos do Estado da Bahia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Estrela Silva Lima

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Ovine brucellosis is a contagious disease caused by Brucella ovis, characterized by clinical marked as epididymitis, abortion and lambs neonatal mortality, leading to reduction in reproductive efficiency of livestock and causing great economic damage. Considering the lack of seroepidemiologic data about B. Ovis in the State of Bahia and the importance of this disease in the economic sphere of sheep rearing, the design of this study aimed to achieve serum inquiry to investigate toe occurrence of anti-Brucella ovis in sheep in the Recôncavo Baiano. 183 serum samples were submited to the test of agar gel immunodiffusion (AGIO using soluble antigens produced by the Veterinary Research Center Oesidério Finamor (CPVOF in Rio Grande do Sul. Six (3.27% showed serological evidence of infection by B. Ovis Of 183 sera from sheep investigated by the AGIO to search for evidence of anti-Brucella ovis, with no significant difference between age and sex (p = 2.0 and p = 0.60, respectively of animais with the proportion of sheep seropositives. The results obtained by serological survey have been lead to accept that the infection by B. Ovis it is present in commercial herds of sheep in the state of Bahia, and requiring more extensive studies in sheep population, adoption of sanitary measures of prevention and control to prevent the spread of the disease.A brucelose ovina é uma doença de caráter contagioso, causada por Brucella ovis, caracterizada por um quadro clínico de epididimite, abortamento e mortalidade neonatal de cordeiros, levando a redução da eficiência reprodutiva dos rebanhos e provocando grandes perdas econômicas. Considerando a ausência de dados epidemiológicos, sobre a B. ovis no estado da Bahia e sua importância econômica para ovinocultura, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo realizar inquérito sorológico para investigar a ocorrência de anticorpos anti-Brucella ovis em ovinos no recôncavo baiano. Foram submetidas 183 amostras

  12. Shared Bacterial and Viral Respiratory Agents in Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis, Domestic Sheep (Ovis aries, and Goats (Capra hircus in Montana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S. Miller

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Transmission of infectious agents from livestock reservoirs has been hypothesized to cause respiratory disease outbreaks in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis, and land management policies intended to limit this transmission have proven controversial. This cross-sectional study compares the infectious agents present in multiple populations of bighorn sheep near to and distant from their interface with domestic sheep (O. aries and domestic goat (Capra hircus and provides critical baseline information needed for interpretations of cross-species transmission risks. Bighorn sheep and livestock shared exposure to Pasteurellaceae, viral, and endoparasite agents. In contrast, although the impact is uncertain, Mycoplasma sp. was isolated from livestock but not bighorn sheep. These results may be the result of historic cross-species transmission of agents that has resulted in a mosaic of endemic and exotic agents. Future work using longitudinal and multiple population comparisons is needed to rigorously establish the risk of outbreaks from cross-species transmission of infectious agents.

  13. Shared bacterial and viral respiratory agents in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), domestic sheep (Ovis aries), and goats (Capra hircus) in Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David S.; Weiser, Glen C.; Aune, Keith; Roeder, Brent; Atkinson, Mark; Anderson, Neil; Roffe, Thomas J.; Keating, Kim A.; Chapman, Phillip L.; Kimberling, Cleon; Rhyan, Jack C.; Clarke, P. Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Transmission of infectious agents from livestock reservoirs has been hypothesized to cause respiratory disease outbreaks in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), and land management policies intended to limit this transmission have proven controversial. This cross-sectional study compares the infectious agents present in multiple populations of bighorn sheep near to and distant from their interface with domestic sheep (O. aries) and domestic goat (Capra hircus) and provides critical baseline information needed for interpretations of cross-species transmission risks. Bighorn sheep and livestock shared exposure to Pasteurellaceae, viral, and endoparasite agents. In contrast, although the impact is uncertain, Mycoplasma sp. was isolated from livestock but not bighorn sheep. These results may be the result of historic cross-species transmission of agents that has resulted in a mosaic of endemic and exotic agents. Future work using longitudinal and multiple population comparisons is needed to rigorously establish the risk of outbreaks from cross-species transmission of infectious agents.

  14. Dose assessment models. Annex A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The models presented in this chapter have been separated into 2 general categories: environmental transport models which describe the movement of radioactive materials through all sectors of the environment after their release, and dosimetric models to calculate the absorbed dose following an intake of radioactive materials or exposure to external irradiation. Various sections of this chapter also deal with atmospheric transport models, terrestrial models, and aquatic models.

  15. Transmission of Mannheimia haemolytica from domestic sheep (Ovis aries) to bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis): unequivocal demonstration with green fluorescent protein-tagged organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Paulraj K; Shanthalingam, Sudarvili; Dassanayake, Rohana P; Subramaniam, Renuka; Herndon, Caroline N; Knowles, Donald P; Rurangirwa, Fred R; Foreyt, William J; Wayman, Gary; Marciel, Ann Marie; Highlander, Sarah K; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2010-07-01

    Previous studies demonstrated that bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) died of pneumonia when commingled with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) but did not conclusively prove that the responsible pathogens were transmitted from domestic to bighorn sheep. The objective of this study was to determine, unambiguously, whether Mannheimia haemolytica can be transmitted from domestic to bighorn sheep when they commingle. Four isolates of M. haemolytica were obtained from the pharynx of two of four domestic sheep and tagged with a plasmid carrying the genes for green fluorescent protein (GFP) and ampicillin resistance (AP(R)). Four domestic sheep, colonized with the tagged bacteria, were kept about 10 m apart from four bighorn sheep for 1 mo with no clinical signs of pneumonia observed in the bighorn sheep during that period. The domestic and bighorn sheep were then allowed to have fence-line contact for 2 mo. During that period, three bighorn sheep acquired the tagged bacteria from the domestic sheep. At the end of the 2 mo of fence-line contact, the animals were allowed to commingle. All four bighorn sheep died 2 days to 9 days following commingling. The lungs from all four bighorn sheep showed gross and histopathologic lesions characteristic of M. haemolytica pneumonia. Tagged M. haemolytica were isolated from all four bighorn sheep, as confirmed by growth in ampicillin-containing culture medium, PCR-amplification of genes encoding GFP and Ap(R), and immunofluorescent staining of GFP. These results unequivocally demonstrate transmission of M. haemolytica from domestic to bighorn sheep, resulting in pneumonia and death of bighorn sheep.

  16. Differential expression of interleukin-8 by polymorphonuclear leukocytes of two closely related species, Ovis canadensis and Ovis aries, in response to Mannheimia haemolytica infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herndon, Caroline N; Foreyt, William J; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2010-08-01

    The pneumonic lesions and mortality caused by Mannheimia haemolytica in bighorn sheep (BHS; Ovis canadensis) are more severe than those in the related species, domestic sheep (DS; Ovis aries), under both natural and experimental conditions. Leukotoxin (Lkt) and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) are the most important virulence factors of this organism. One hallmark of pathogenesis of pneumonia is the influx of polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs) into the lungs. Lkt-induced cytolysis of PMNs results in the release of cytotoxic compounds capable of damaging lung tissue. Interleukin-8 (IL-8) is a potent PMN chemoattractant. The objective of the present study was to determine if there is differential expression of IL-8 by the macrophages and PMNs of BHS and DS in response to M. haemolytica. Macrophages and PMNs of BHS and DS were stimulated with heat-killed M. haemolytica or LPS. IL-8 expression by the cells was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). The PMNs of BHS expressed severalfold higher levels of IL-8 than those of DS upon stimulation. Lesional lung tissue of M. haemolytica-infected BHS contained significantly higher levels of IL-8 than nonlesional tissue. The bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid of infected BHS also contained higher levels of IL-8 than that of infected DS. Depletion of IL-8 reduced migration of PMNs toward BAL fluid by approximately 50%, indicating that IL-8 is integral to PMN recruitment to the lung during M. haemolytica infection. Excessive production of IL-8, enhanced recruitment of PMNs, and PMN lysis by Lkt are likely responsible for the severity of the lung lesions in M. haemolytica-infected BHS.

  17. Antigenic Cross-reactivity among Haemonchus contortus, Oesophagostomum columbianum and Trichuris ovis of Goat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruma JAS

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cross antigenicity is the major problem in developing a reliable tool for immunodiagnosis and immunoprophylaxis of parasitic diseases. Mixed infection due to different types of gastrointestinal parasites is more common than single species infection under field condition.Methods: The present study was undertaken to detect antigenic cross-reactivity among Haemonchus contortus, Oesophagostomum columbianum and Trichuris ovis of goats by SDS-PAGE and western blot analysis using hyperimmune sera (HIS rose in rabbit separately against the antigens of the three nematode species.Results: Thirteen, 16 and 14 polypeptides in crude somatic antigen (CSAg of H. contortus (CSAg-Hc, O. columbianum (CSAg-Oc and T. ovis (CSAg-To, respectively, were resolved in SDS PAGE analyses. It was revealed that 54 kDa peptide was shared by H.contortus and O. columbianum, whereas 47 kDa peptide was shared by O. columbianum and T. ovis. Western blot analyses revealed that three immunogenic polypeptides (MW 54, 49 and 42 kDa in CSAg-Hc, five in CSAg-Oc (54, 47, 44, 38 and 35.5 kDa and CSAg-To and five polypeptides (90, 51, 47, 39.5 and 31 kDa in CSAg-To cross-reacted with the heterologous HIS. Four species-specific immunoreactive polypeptides (92, 85, 65 and 39 kDa of H. contortus and two (72 & 26 kDa in O. columbianum were also identified in the study. Conclusion: The shared polypeptides and species-specific polypeptides might be evaluated as protective antigen and subsequently exploitation for developing immunodiagnostic and for immunoprophylactic tools of for these common nematode species. 

  18. Antigenic Cross-reactivity among Haemonchus contortus, Oesophagostomum columbianum and Trichuris ovis of Goat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jas, Ruma; Ghosh, Joydeb; DAS, Kinsuk

    2016-01-01

    Cross antigenicity is the major problem in developing a reliable tool for immunodiagnosis and immunoprophylaxis of parasitic diseases. Mixed infection due to different types of gastrointestinal parasites is more common than single species infection under field condition. The present study was undertaken to detect antigenic cross-reactivity among Haemonchus contortus, Oesophagostomum columbianum and Trichuris ovis of goats by SDS-PAGE and western blot analysis using hyperimmune sera (HIS) rose in rabbit separately against the antigens of the three nematode species. Thirteen, 16 and 14 polypeptides in crude somatic antigen (CSAg) of H. contortus (CSAg-Hc), O. columbianum (CSAg-Oc) and T. ovis (CSAg-To), respectively, were resolved in SDS PAGE analyses. It was revealed that 54 kDa peptide was shared by H.contortus and O. columbianum , whereas 47 kDa peptide was shared by O. columbianum and T. ovis . Western blot analyses revealed that three immunogenic polypeptides (MW 54, 49 and 42 kDa) in CSAg-Hc, five in CSAg-Oc (54, 47, 44, 38 and 35.5 kDa) and CSAg-To and five polypeptides (90, 51, 47, 39.5 and 31 kDa) in CSAg-To cross-reacted with the heterologous HIS. Four species-specific immunoreactive polypeptides (92, 85, 65 and 39 kDa) of H. contortus and two (72 & 26 kDa) in O. columbianum were also identified in the study. The shared polypeptides and species-specific polypeptides might be evaluated as protective antigen and subsequently exploitation for developing immunodiagnostic and for immunoprophylactic tools of for these common nematode species.

  19. Sirenophila ovis-atra a new species of maritime Teloschistaceae from the Southern Hemisphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søchting, Ulrik; Søgaard, Majbrit Zeuthen; Sancho, Leopoldo G.

    2016-01-01

    A new species, Sirenophila ovis-atra is described from maritime rocks of southern Patagonia, the Falkland Islands and Macquarie Island, where it grows in the upper part of the black ‘Verrucaria-zone’, most often on members of the genus Hydropunctaria. It is so far the only known species of Sireno......A new species, Sirenophila ovis-atra is described from maritime rocks of southern Patagonia, the Falkland Islands and Macquarie Island, where it grows in the upper part of the black ‘Verrucaria-zone’, most often on members of the genus Hydropunctaria. It is so far the only known species...

  20. Host preference of the sheep scab mite, Psoroptes ovis : short communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Meintjies

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available Sheep scab mites, Psoroptes ovis, collected from a Merino donor sheep, were used to infest Merino and Dorper sheep, and Angora and Boer goats. Mites were placed on the sheep on 1 or 2 occasions and on 5 occasions on the goats. All the animals were examined at regular intervals for the presence of scab lesions and living mites. Both sheep breeds developed lesions, but those on the Merino sheep were always larger than those on the Dorper sheep at the same intervals after infestation. None of the goats developed lesions or showed signs of irritation, or harboured any mites.

  1. [Changes in the ECG telemetry of lambs infected with Cysticercus ovis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostov, I; Georgieva, D

    1985-01-01

    Six lambs were experimentally infected with Cysticercus ovis. Some changes were followed up in the ECG by means of the radiotelemetric method. The infection process led to the following more important changes, such as sinus tachicardia and arhythmia, auricular fibrilation, sinoauricular block, atrial dissociation, the incidence of a pathologic Q deflection; lowering of the R deflection amplitude, and inversion of the T wave. It was found that the changes referred to persist for a longer period (in the case of infarction), and could be made use of in dispensary studies.

  2. External Ophthalmomyiasis Caused by Oestrus ovis: A Rare Case Report from India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madan, Molly; Asthana, Ashish K.; Das, Anupam; Kumar, Sandeep; Jain, Kirti

    2009-01-01

    Myiasis of different organs has been reported off and on from various regions in the world. We report a human case of external ophthalmomyiasis caused by the larvae of a sheep nasal botfly, Oestrus ovis, for the first time from Meerut city in Western Uttar Pradesh, India. A 25-year-old farmer presented with severe symptoms of conjunctivitis. The larvae, 3 in number, were observed in the bulbar conjunctiva, and following removal the symptoms of eye inflammation improved within a few hours. PMID:19290093

  3. Differences in the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of Moraxella bovis, M. bovoculi and M. ovis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maboni, Grazieli; Gressler, Leticia T.; Espindola, Julia P.; Schwab, Marcelo; Tasca, Caiane; Potter, Luciana; de Vargas, Agueda Castagna

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the differences in the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of Moraxella bovis, M. bovoculi and M. ovis. Thirty-two strains of Moraxella spp. isolated from cattle and sheep with infectious keratoconjunctivitis were tested via broth microdilution method to determine their susceptibility to ampicillin, cefoperazone, ceftiofur, cloxacillin, enrofloxacin, florfenicol, gentamicin, neomycin, oxytetracycline and penicillin. The results demonstrated that Moraxella spp. strains could be considered sensitive for most of the antimicrobials tested in this study, but differences between the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of these three Moraxella species were found. M. bovis might differ from other species due to the higher MIC and MBC values it presented. PMID:26273272

  4. Test of the sheep ked Melophagus ovinus (L) as a vector of Anaplasma ovis Lestoquard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaugg, J L; Coan, M E

    1986-05-01

    The sheep ked Melophagus ovinus was evaluated as a possible vector of Anaplasma ovis. In 4 tests, 45 to 293 keds were transferred from sheep with acute anaplasmosis, low level parasitemia, or carrier state of anaplasmosis to individual splenectomized ewes. Keds were confined in stockinette cages attached to the dorsal midline of the recipient hosts for 10 days. Throughout the 90-day observation periods after the keds were transferred, no clinical, serologic, or hematologic evidence of anaplasmosis was detected in any of the ked-recipient ewes. Results indicate that sheep keds probably are not mechanical or biological vectors of the ovine anaplasmosis organism.

  5. Bovicola ovis and Melophagus ovinus: Spatial distribution on Menz breed Sheep

    OpenAIRE

    Mersha Chanie

    2011-01-01

    This study was done from September 2006 to May 2007. A total of 105 Menz breed sheep from Yemenze Gera Midir district in the Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia. The spatial distribution of sheep keds (Melophagus ovinus) and chewing lice (Bovicola ovis) on Menz breed sheep were examined which were naturally infested. The densities if sheep keds and lice were determined through counting after parting of the fleece/wool at five (5) points on a length of 10 cm areas of six (6) different reg...

  6. Assessing uncertainty in mechanistic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin J. Green; David W. MacFarlane; Harry T. Valentine

    2000-01-01

    Concern over potential global change has led to increased interest in the use of mechanistic models for predicting forest growth. The rationale for this interest is that empirical models may be of limited usefulness if environmental conditions change. Intuitively, we expect that mechanistic models, grounded as far as possible in an understanding of the biology of tree...

  7. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  8. The use of a Psoroptes ovis serodiagnostic test for the analysis of a natural outbreak of sheep scab

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burgess Stewart TG

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sheep scab is a highly contagious disease of sheep caused by the ectoparasitic mite Psoroptes ovis. The disease is endemic in the UK and has significant economic impact through its effects on performance and welfare. Diagnosis of sheep scab is achieved through observation of clinical signs e.g. itching, pruritis and wool loss and ultimately through the detection of mites in skin scrapings. Early stages of infestation are often difficult to diagnose and sub-clinical animals can be a major factor in disease spread. The development of a diagnostic assay would enable farmers and veterinarians to detect disease at an early stage, reducing the risk of developing clinical disease and limiting spread. Methods Serum samples were obtained from an outbreak of sheep scab within an experimental flock (n = 480 (3 samples each from 160 sheep allowing the assessment, by ELISA of sheep scab specific antibody prior to infestation, mid-outbreak (combined with clinical assessment and post-treatment. Results Analysis of pre-infestation samples demonstrated low levels of potential false positives (3.8%. Of the 27 animals with clinical or behavioural signs of disease 25 tested positive at the mid-outbreak sampling period, however, the remaining 2 sheep tested positive at the subsequent sampling period. Clinical assessment revealed the absence of clinical or behavioural signs of disease in 132 sheep, whilst analysis of mid-outbreak samples showed that 105 of these clinically negative animals were serologically positive, representing potential sub-clinical infestations. Conclusions This study demonstrates that this ELISA test can effectively diagnose sheep scab in a natural outbreak of disease, and more importantly, highlights its ability to detect sub-clinically infested animals. This ELISA, employing a single recombinant antigen, represents a major step forward in the diagnosis of sheep scab and may prove to be critical in any future control

  9. Sensitivity Assessment of Ozone Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shorter, Jeffrey A.; Rabitz, Herschel A.; Armstrong, Russell A.

    2000-01-24

    The activities under this contract effort were aimed at developing sensitivity analysis techniques and fully equivalent operational models (FEOMs) for applications in the DOE Atmospheric Chemistry Program (ACP). MRC developed a new model representation algorithm that uses a hierarchical, correlated function expansion containing a finite number of terms. A full expansion of this type is an exact representation of the original model and each of the expansion functions is explicitly calculated using the original model. After calculating the expansion functions, they are assembled into a fully equivalent operational model (FEOM) that can directly replace the original mode.

  10. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  11. External ophthalmomyiasis presenting to an emergency department: corneal findings as a sign of Oestrus ovis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholamhossein, Yaghoubi; Behrouz, Heydari

    2013-10-01

    This study aims to determine the frequency of opthalmyomyiasis externa and the ocular findings of disease in Southern Khorasan. All patients referred to the emergency department of Valiaser hospital during the year 2011 with external ophthalmomyiasis were enrolled in this study. The diagnosis of external ophthalmomyiasis was made according to clinical findings and the presence of Oestrus ovis larvae. There were 18 cases of external ophthalmomyiasis in the emergency department of Valiaser hospital in 2011. Most cases had the common signs and symptoms of allergic conjunctivitis, except for three males who were referred with respective complaints of red eye, foreign body sensation, and swelling around the eyelids after contact injury the previous day; corneal infiltration was present in three cases. The visual acuity among the three cases that had peripheral corneal involvement was 20 / 30 in both eyes. The bulbar conjunctiva showed chemosis in all cases and a ropy pattern discharge that was clinically compatible with external ophthalmomyiasis. However, in one case, microscopic slit lamp examination did not show Oestrus ovis larvae. The frequency of external ophthalmomyiasis was high in this region. Although external ophthalmomyiasis usually manifests as allergic conjunctivitis, coronary-like corneal infiltration may be considered in the differential diagnosis of external ophthalmomyiasis or toxic insult.

  12. The Model for Assessment of Telemedicine (MAST)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kidholm, Kristian; Clemensen, Jane; Caffery, Liam J

    2017-01-01

    The evaluation of telemedicine can be achieved using different evaluation models or theoretical frameworks. This paper presents a scoping review of published studies which have applied the Model for Assessment of Telemedicine (MAST). MAST includes pre-implementation assessment (e.g. by use...

  13. Reappearance of Taenia ovis krabbei muscle cysts in a roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in Denmark after 60+ years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al-Sabi, Mohammad Nafi Solaiman; Chriél, Mariann; Holm, Elisabeth

    2013-01-01

    The present report describes the reappearance of Taenia ovis krabbei in a roe deer from Denmark after more than 60 years. The cysticerci were isolated from the thigh muscle of the deer, and the diagnosis was based on histostological analysis, morphology of the rostellar-hooks as well as molecular...

  14. Vegetative Valvular Endocarditis and Hepatitis Associated with Helcococcus ovis in a 7-year-old White Leghorn Rooster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crispo, Manuela; Stoute, Simone; Savaris, Thaiza; Bickford, Arthur; Santoro, Tiffany; Sentíes-Cué, C Gabriel

    2017-12-01

    Helcococcus ovis is a slow-growing, pyridoxal-dependent, Gram-positive coccus belonging to the Peptostreptococcaceae family. Bacteria belonging to the genus Helcococcus are considered normal inhabitants of keratinized epithelium in humans; however, several reports support their role as pathogens in humans and several animal species. This case report describes the identification of H. ovis in a white leghorn rooster with valvular vegetative endocarditis and hepatitis. In February 2017 one dead, 7-yr-old, white leghorn rooster was submitted to the California Animal Health and Food Safety Turlock laboratory for diagnostic testing. Postmortem and microscopic examination revealed vegetative endocarditis and aortic thrombosis associated with large numbers of Gram-positive cocci. Myocarditis and extensive necrotic hepatitis were also noticed. Helcococcus ovis was isolated in large numbers from the aortic endothelium and confirmed by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Bacterial colonies become evident 48 hr postincubation and exhibited a satellite growth around Escherichia coli on blood agar plates. A similar relationship has been described between Helcococcus spp. and Staphylococcus aureus. The primary site of infection in this chicken was not determined. To our understanding this is the first report of H. ovis infection in an avian species. The fastidious nature and nutritional requirements of Helcococcus spp. must be considered in order to allow proper identification and avoid misdiagnosis. Further studies are needed to define pathogenesis, virulence factors, and predisposing conditions associated with this microorganism.

  15. Assessment of the Rescorla-Wagner model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R R; Barnet, R C; Grahame, N J

    1995-05-01

    The Rescorla-Wagner model has been the most influential theory of associative learning to emerge from the study of animal behavior over the last 25 years. Recently, equivalence to this model has become a benchmark in assessing connectionist models, with such equivalence often achieved by incorporating the Widrow-Hoff delta rule. This article presents the Rescorla-Wagner model's basic assumptions, reviews some of the model's predictive successes and failures, relates the failures to the model's assumptions, and discusses the model's heuristic value. It is concluded that the model has had a positive influence on the study of simple associative learning by stimulating research and contributing to new model development. However, this benefit should neither lead to the model being regarded as inherently "correct" nor imply that its predictions can be profitably used to assess other models.

  16. Understanding National Models for Climate Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, A.; Weingartner, K.

    2017-12-01

    National-level climate assessments have been produced or are underway in a number of countries. These efforts showcase a variety of approaches to mapping climate impacts onto human and natural systems, and involve a variety of development processes, organizational structures, and intended purposes. This presentation will provide a comparative overview of national `models' for climate assessments worldwide, drawing from a geographically diverse group of nations with varying capacities to conduct such assessments. Using an illustrative sampling of assessment models, the presentation will highlight the range of assessment mandates and requirements that drive this work, methodologies employed, focal areas, and the degree to which international dimensions are included for each nation's assessment. This not only allows the U.S. National Climate Assessment to be better understood within an international context, but provides the user with an entry point into other national climate assessments around the world, enabling a better understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities societies face.

  17. Influence of some plant extracts on the ovi-position behavior of Aedes fluviatilis and Culex quinquifasciatus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulhakim A. El Maghrbi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Alcoholic/acetone extracts of nine species of plants (Allium tuberosum, Apium leptophylum, Carica papaya, Cymbopogon citratus, Euphorbia cotinofolia, Melia azedarach, Ocimum canum, Ricinus communis and Tagetes erecta were tested in respect to their influence on the ovi-position behavior of the mosquito, Aedes fluviatilis and Culex quinquifasciatus in concentrations of 100, 10 and 1 mg/L. Three days after mosquito females had fed on blood of anesthetized mice and pigeon respectively, experimental and control dishes were placed into cages for 24 h then number of eggs laid in each dish was counted. Alcoholic/acetone extracts of C. papaya, C. citratus and T. erecta at 100 mg/L; E. cotinofolia and O. canum at 100 and 10 mg/L were proved to be repulsive for ovi-position of Ae. fluviatilis. On the other hand, acetone extracts of A. tuberosum and M. azederach at 100 and 10 mg/L; A. leptophyllum, O. canum, E. cotinofolia and R. communis at 100 mg/L produced same effect on ovi-position behavior of Ae. fluviatilis. Alcoholic extracts E. cotinofolia, R. communis (100 mg/L and M. azedarach (100 and 10 mg/L were attractive to Cx. quinquifasciatus. Five acetone extracts (A. tuberosum, A. leptophylum, C. papaya, C. Citrates and M. azedarach were repulsive for ovi-position at 100 mg/L. Acetone extract of A. tuberosum and M. azedarach at 10 and 1 mg/L and C. citratus at 10 mg/L maintained the same properties. Our results concluded that each plant extract has the potential to control ovi-position behavior of mosquito. The differences in obtained responses necessitate the adoption of deeper research to isolate the active principle of such plants for potential use in mosquito control program.

  18. First report of Anaplasma ovis in pupal and adult Melophagus ovinus (sheep ked) collected in South Xinjiang, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Li; He, Bo; Li, Kai-Rui; Li, Fei; Zhang, Lu-Yao; Li, Xian-Qiang; Liu, Yong-Hong

    2018-04-19

    Melophagus ovinus (sheep ked) is a blood-feeding ectoparasite that belongs to the family Hippoboscidae (Diptera: Hippoboscoidea) and mainly parasitizes sheep. The life-cycle of M. ovinus consists of three stages: larva, pupa and adult. It has a worldwide distribution and has been found in four provinces of China, especially South Xinjiang. In addition to causing direct damage to animal hosts, M. ovinus serves as a vector for disease transmission. In this study, our aim was to investigate the presence of Anaplasma spp. in pupal and adult M. ovinus. A total of 93 specimens (including eight pupal specimens) of M. ovinus collected in South Xinjiang were selected for isolation of genomic DNA, followed by PCR amplification and sequencing of the msp4 gene of Anaplasma spp. The sequences were analyzed in MEGA 7.0 software and via online BLAST. PCR and sequencing results showed that all the specimens collected in 2013 were free of Anaplasma spp., whereas three and 25 specimens (including five pupal specimens) collected in 2016 and 2017, respectively, tested positive for Anaplasma spp. The analysis of 24 msp4 gene sequences (from four pupal specimens) confirmed the presence of A. ovis in M. ovinus specimens collected in South Xinjiang, China. The detected A. ovis isolates belong to Genotypes II and III. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the detection of A. ovis DNA in pupal M. ovinus, confirming the vertical transmission of A. ovis in M. ovinus and the potential of M. ovinus to serve as a vector for A. ovis.

  19. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  20. Conserved Genetic Architecture Underlying Individual Recombination Rate Variation in a Wild Population of Soay Sheep (Ovis aries).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Susan E; Bérénos, Camillo; Slate, Jon; Pemberton, Josephine M

    2016-05-01

    Meiotic recombination breaks down linkage disequilibrium (LD) and forms new haplotypes, meaning that it is an important driver of diversity in eukaryotic genomes. Understanding the causes of variation in recombination rate is important in interpreting and predicting evolutionary phenomena and in understanding the potential of a population to respond to selection. However, despite attention in model systems, there remains little data on how recombination rate varies at the individual level in natural populations. Here we used extensive pedigree and high-density SNP information in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) to investigate the genetic architecture of individual autosomal recombination rates. Individual rates were high relative to other mammal systems and were higher in males than in females (autosomal map lengths of 3748 and 2860 cM, respectively). The heritability of autosomal recombination rate was low but significant in both sexes (h(2) = 0.16 and 0.12 in females and males, respectively). In females, 46.7% of the heritable variation was explained by a subtelomeric region on chromosome 6; a genome-wide association study showed the strongest associations at locus RNF212, with further associations observed at a nearby ∼374-kb region of complete LD containing three additional candidate loci, CPLX1, GAK, and PCGF3 A second region on chromosome 7 containing REC8 and RNF212B explained 26.2% of the heritable variation in recombination rate in both sexes. Comparative analyses with 40 other sheep breeds showed that haplotypes associated with recombination rates are both old and globally distributed. Both regions have been implicated in rate variation in mice, cattle, and humans, suggesting a common genetic architecture of recombination rate variation in mammals. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

  1. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

  2. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  3. Attention modeling for video quality assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Junyong; Korhonen, Jari; Perkis, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    averaged spatiotemporal pooling. The local quality is derived from visual attention modeling and quality variations over frames. Saliency, motion, and contrast information are taken into account in modeling visual attention, which is then integrated into IQMs to calculate the local quality of a video frame...... average between the global quality and the local quality. Experimental results demonstrate that the combination of the global quality and local quality outperforms both sole global quality and local quality, as well as other quality models, in video quality assessment. In addition, the proposed video...... quality modeling algorithm can improve the performance of image quality metrics on video quality assessment compared to the normal averaged spatiotemporal pooling scheme....

  4. evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches .... The overall 'pollution potential' or DRASTIC index is established by applying the formula: DRASTIC Index: ... affected by the structure of the soil surface.

  5. A Model for Situation and Threat Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    CUBRC , Inc.) 8151 Needwood #T103 Derwood, MD 20855 UNITED STATES steinberg@cubrc.org A model is presented for situation and threat assessment...PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Subject Matter Expert (SME) Calspan-UB Research Center ( CUBRC , Inc.) 8151 Needwood #T103 Derwood, MD...1 A Model for Situation and Threat Assessment Alan Steinberg CUBRC , Inc. steinberg@cubrc.org November, 2005 2 Objectives • Advance the state-of

  6. Differences in the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of Moraxella bovis, M. bovoculi and M. ovis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazieli Maboni

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the differences in the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of Moraxella bovis, M. bovoculi and M. ovis. Thirty-two strains of Moraxella spp. isolated from cattle and sheep with infectious keratoconjunctivitis were tested via broth microdilution method to determine their susceptibility to ampicillin, cefoperazone, ceftiofur, cloxacillin, enrofloxacin, florfenicol, gentamicin, neomycin, oxytetracycline and penicillin. The results demonstrated that Moraxella spp. strains could be considered sensitive for most of the antimicrobials tested in this study, but differences between the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of these three Moraxella species were found. M. bovis might differ from other species due to the higher MIC and MBC values it presented.

  7. Superoxide dismutase from Trichuris ovis, inhibiton by benzimidazoles and pyrimidine derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sanchez-Moreno

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available Three superoxide dismutase isoenzymes of different cellular location were detected in an homogenate of Thrichuris ovis. Each of these molecular forms was purified by differential centrifugation and precipitation with ammonium sulphate, followed by chromatography on DEAE-cellulose and Sephadex G-75 columns. The activity levels of the two molecular forms detected in the mitochondrial (one cyanide sensitive Cu-Zn-SOD and the other cyanide intensitive Mn-Sod were higher than that of the superoxide dismutase detected in the cytoplasmic fraction (cyanid sensitive Cu-Zn-SOD. All the mollecular forms present evident differences to the SODs contained in the host liver. Molecular mass and some of the physical and chemical aproperties of the enzyme was determined for all three molecular forms. An inhibitory effect on the SOD of the parasite an the host was detected with a series of compounds, some of wich markedly inhibited parasite ensyme but not host enzyme.

  8. Superoxide dismutase from Trichuris ovis--inhibition by benzimidazoles and pyrimidine derivatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Moreno, M; Garcia-Rejon, L; Salas, I; Osuna, A; Monteoliva, M

    1992-01-01

    Three superoxide dismutase isoenzymes of different cellular location were detected in an homogenate of Trichuris ovis. Each of these molecular forms was purified by differential centrifugation and precipitation with ammonium sulphate, followed by chromatography on DEAE-cellulose and Sephadex G-75 columns. The activity levels of the two molecular forms detected in the mitochondrial (one cyanide sensitive Cu-Zn-SOD and the other cyanide insensitive Mn-SOD) were higher than that of the superoxide dismutase detected in the cytoplasmic fraction (cyanide sensitive Cu-Zn-SOD). All molecular forms present evident differences to the SODs contained in the host liver. Molecular mass and some of the physical and chemical properties of the enzyme was determined for all three molecular forms. An inhibitory effect on the SOD of the parasite an the host was detected with a series of compounds, some of which markedly inhibited parasite enzyme but not host enzyme.

  9. Modeling of Communication in a Computational Situation Assessment Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyun Chul; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2009-01-01

    Operators in nuclear power plants have to acquire information from human system interfaces (HSIs) and the environment in order to create, update, and confirm their understanding of a plant state, or situation awareness, because failures of situation assessment may result in wrong decisions for process control and finally errors of commission in nuclear power plants. Quantitative or prescriptive models to predict operator's situation assessment in a situation, the results of situation assessment, provide many benefits such as HSI design solutions, human performance data, and human reliability. Unfortunately, a few computational situation assessment models for NPP operators have been proposed and those insufficiently embed human cognitive characteristics. Thus we proposed a new computational situation assessment model of nuclear power plant operators. The proposed model incorporating significant cognitive factors uses a Bayesian belief network (BBN) as model architecture. It is believed that communication between nuclear power plant operators affects operators' situation assessment and its result, situation awareness. We tried to verify that the proposed model represent the effects of communication on situation assessment. As the result, the proposed model succeeded in representing the operators' behavior and this paper shows the details

  10. STAMINA - Model description. Standard Model Instrumentation for Noise Assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schreurs EM; Jabben J; Verheijen ENG; CMM; mev

    2010-01-01

    Deze rapportage beschrijft het STAMINA-model, dat staat voor Standard Model Instrumentation for Noise Assessments en door het RIVM is ontwikkeld. Het instituut gebruikt dit standaardmodel om omgevingsgeluid in Nederland in kaart te brengen. Het model is gebaseerd op de Standaard Karteringsmethode

  11. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  12. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  13. A Simple Model of Self-Assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Dominguez Martinez (Silvia); O.H. Swank (Otto)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractWe develop a simple model that describes individuals' self-assessments of their abilities. We assume that individuals learn about their abilities from appraisals of others and experience. Our model predicts that if communication is imperfect, then (i) appraisals of others tend to be too

  14. A simple model of self-assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dominguez-Martinez, S.; Swank, O.H.

    2009-01-01

    We develop a simple model that describes individuals' self-assessments of their abilities. We assume that individuals learn about their abilities from appraisals of others and experience. Our model predicts that if communication is imperfect, then (i) appraisals of others tend to be too positive and

  15. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  16. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  17. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  18. Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

  19. Modeling inputs to computer models used in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    Computer models for various risk assessment applications are closely scrutinized both from the standpoint of questioning the correctness of the underlying mathematical model with respect to the process it is attempting to model and from the standpoint of verifying that the computer model correctly implements the underlying mathematical model. A process that receives less scrutiny, but is nonetheless of equal importance, concerns the individual and joint modeling of the inputs. This modeling effort clearly has a great impact on the credibility of results. Model characteristics are reviewed in this paper that have a direct bearing on the model input process and reasons are given for using probabilities-based modeling with the inputs. The authors also present ways to model distributions for individual inputs and multivariate input structures when dependence and other constraints may be present

  20. Establishment of pregnancy after the transfer of nuclear transfer embryos produced from the fusion of argali (Ovis ammon) nuclei into domestic sheep (Ovis aries) enucleated oocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, K L; Bunch, T D; Mitalipov, S; Reed, W A

    1999-01-01

    Cloning mammalian species from cell lines of adult animals has been demonstrated. Aside from its importance for cloning multiple copies of genetically valuable livestock, cloning now has the potential to salvage endangered or even extinct species. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the bovine and domestic (Ovis aries) ovine oocyte cytoplasm on the nucleus of an established cell line from an endangered argali wild sheep (Ovis ammon) after nuclear transplantation. A fibroblast cell line was established from skin biopsies from an adult argali ram from the People's Republic of China. Early karyotype analysis of cells between 3-6 passages revealed a normal diploid chromosome number of 56. The argali karyotype consisted of 2 pairs of biarmed and 25 pairs of acrocentric autosomes, a large acrocentric and minute biarmed Y. Bovine ovaries were collected from a local abattoir, oocytes aspirated, and immediately placed in maturation medium consisting of M-199 containing 10% fetal bovine serum, 100 IU/mL penicillin, 100 microg/mL streptomycin, 0.5 microg/mL follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), 5.0 microg/mL luetinizing hormone (LH) and 1.0 microg/mL estradiol. Ovine (O. aries) oocytes were collected at surgery 25 hours postonset of estrus from the oviducts of superovulated donor animals. All cultures were carried out at 39 degrees C in a humidified atmosphere of 5% CO2 and air. In vitro matured MII bovine oocytes were enucleated 16-20 hours after onset of maturation and ovine oocytes within 2-3 hours after collection. Enucleation was confirmed using Hoechst 33342 and UV light. The donor argali cells were synchronized in G0-G1 phase by culturing in Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium (DMEM) plus 0.5% fetal bovine serum for 5-10 days. Fusion of nuclear donor cell to an enucleated oocyte (cytoplast) to produce nuclear transfer (NT) embryos was induced by 2 electric pulses of 1.4 kV/cm for 30 microsc. Fused NT embryos were activated after 24 hours of maturation

  1. Bioavailability in the boris assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norden, M.; Avila, R.; Gonze, M.A.; Tamponnet, C.

    2004-01-01

    The fifth framework EU project BORIS (Bioavailability Of Radionuclides In Soils: role of biological components and resulting improvement of prediction models) has three scientific objectives. The first is to improve understanding of the mechanisms governing the transfer of radionuclides to plants. The second is to improve existing predictive models of radionuclide interaction with soils by incorporating the knowledge acquired from the experimental results. The last and third objective is to extract from the experimental results some scientific basis for the development of bioremediation methods of radionuclides contaminated soils and to apprehend the role of additional non-radioactive pollutants on radionuclide bio-availability. This paper is focused on the second objective. The purpose of the BORIS assessment model is to describe the behaviour of radionuclides in the soil-plant system with the aim of making predictions of the time dynamics of the bioavailability of radionuclides in soil and the radionuclides concentrations in plants. To be useful the assessment model should be rather simple and use only a few parameters, which are commonly available or possible to measure for different sites. The model shall take into account, as much as possible, the results of the experimental studies and the mechanistic models developed in the BORIS project. One possible approach is to introduce in the assessment model a quantitative relationship between bioavailability of the radionuclides in soil and the soil properties. To do this an operational definition of bioavailability is needed. Here operational means experimentally measurable, directly or indirectly, and that the bioavailability can be translated into a mathematical expression. This paper describes the reasoning behind the chosen definition of bioavailability for the assessment model, how to derive operational expressions for the bioavailability and how to use them in the assessment model. (author)

  2. Epidemiological study of the intestinal helminths of wild boar (Sus scrofa) and mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon) in central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magi, M; Bertani, M; Dell'Omodarme, M; Prati, M C

    2002-12-01

    Since 1995 the population of wild ungulates increased significantly in the "Parco provinciale dei Monti Livornesi" (Livorno, Tuscany, Central Italy). We studied the intestinal macroparasites of two hosts, the wild boar (Sus scrofa) and the mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon). In the case of wild boars we found a dominant parasite species, Globocephalus urosubulatus. For this parasite the frequency distribution of the number of parasites per host agrees with a negative binomial distribution. There is not a significant correlation between the age of the animals and the parasitosis. Furthermore the mean parasite burden of male and female wild boars does not differ significantly. In the case of mouflons we found a dominant parasite species Nematodirus filicollis with Trichuris ovis as codominant species.

  3. First molecular evidence of Anaplasma ovis and Rickettsia spp. in keds (Diptera: Hippoboscidae) of sheep and wild ruminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornok, Sándor; de la Fuente, José; Biró, Nóra; Fernández de Mera, Isabel G; Meli, Marina L; Elek, Vilmos; Gönczi, Eniko; Meili, Theres; Tánczos, Balázs; Farkas, Róbert; Lutz, Hans; Hofmann-Lehmann, Regina

    2011-10-01

    To evaluate the presence of rickettsial agents in hippoboscid flies with molecular methods, 81 sheep keds (Melophagus ovinus) were collected from 23 sheep, 144 deer keds (Lipoptena cervi) were caught in the environment, and a further 463 and 59 individuals of the latter species were obtained from fresh carcasses of 29 red deer and 17 roe deer, respectively. DNA was extracted individually or in pools. Anaplasma ovis was demonstrated in all examined sheep keds, and from one pool of free-living deer keds. Rickettsia helvetica or other, unidentified rickettsiae were also present in one pool of sheep keds, and in four pools of deer keds from both red deer and roe deer. This is the first account of polymerase chain reaction positivity of hippoboscid flies for A. ovis and rickettsiae. These results raise the possibility that-apart from cattle and roe deer as already reported-sheep and red deer might also play a reservoir role in the epidemiology of rickettsioses.

  4. Assessing alternative conceptual models of fracture flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, C.K.

    1995-01-01

    The numerical code TOUGH2 was used to assess alternative conceptual models of fracture flow. The models that were considered included the equivalent continuum model (ECM) and the dual permeability (DK) model. A one-dimensional, layered, unsaturated domain was studied with a saturated bottom boundary and a constant infiltration at the top boundary. Two different infiltration rates were used in the studies. In addition, the connection areas between the fracture and matrix elements in the dual permeability model were varied. Results showed that the two conceptual models of fracture flow produced different saturation and velocity profiles-even under steady-state conditions. The magnitudes of the discrepancies were sensitive to two parameters that affected the flux between the fractures and matrix in the dual permeability model: (1) the fracture-matrix connection areas and (2) the capillary pressure gradients between the fracture and matrix elements

  5. Personalized pseudophakic model for refractive assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filomena J Ribeiro

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To test a pseudophakic eye model that allows for intraocular lens power (IOL calculation, both in normal eyes and in extreme conditions, such as post-LASIK. METHODS: PARTICIPANTS: The model's efficacy was tested in 54 participants (104 eyes who underwent LASIK and were assessed before and after surgery, thus allowing to test the same method in the same eye after only changing corneal topography. MODELLING: The Liou-Brennan eye model was used as a starting point, and biometric values were replaced by individual measurements. Detailed corneal surface data were obtained from topography (Orbscan® and a grid of elevation values was used to define corneal surfaces in an optical ray-tracing software (Zemax®. To determine IOL power, optimization criteria based on values of the modulation transfer function (MTF weighted according to contrast sensitivity function (CSF, were applied. RESULTS: Pre-operative refractive assessment calculated by our eye model correlated very strongly with SRK/T (r = 0.959, p0.05. Comparison of post-operative refractive assessment obtained using our eye model with the average of currently used formulas showed a strong correlation (r = 0.778, p0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that personalized pseudophakic eye models and ray-tracing allow for the use of the same methodology, regardless of previous LASIK, independent of population averages and commonly used regression correction factors, which represents a clinical advantage.

  6. Personalized pseudophakic model for refractive assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Filomena J; Castanheira-Dinis, António; Dias, João M

    2012-01-01

    To test a pseudophakic eye model that allows for intraocular lens power (IOL) calculation, both in normal eyes and in extreme conditions, such as post-LASIK. The model's efficacy was tested in 54 participants (104 eyes) who underwent LASIK and were assessed before and after surgery, thus allowing to test the same method in the same eye after only changing corneal topography. MODELLING: The Liou-Brennan eye model was used as a starting point, and biometric values were replaced by individual measurements. Detailed corneal surface data were obtained from topography (Orbscan®) and a grid of elevation values was used to define corneal surfaces in an optical ray-tracing software (Zemax®). To determine IOL power, optimization criteria based on values of the modulation transfer function (MTF) weighted according to contrast sensitivity function (CSF), were applied. Pre-operative refractive assessment calculated by our eye model correlated very strongly with SRK/T (r = 0.959, p0.05). Comparison of post-operative refractive assessment obtained using our eye model with the average of currently used formulas showed a strong correlation (r = 0.778, p0.05). Results suggest that personalized pseudophakic eye models and ray-tracing allow for the use of the same methodology, regardless of previous LASIK, independent of population averages and commonly used regression correction factors, which represents a clinical advantage.

  7. Assessment of Venous Thrombosis in Animal Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover, Steven P; Evans, Colin E; Patel, Ashish S; Modarai, Bijan; Saha, Prakash; Smith, Alberto

    2016-02-01

    Deep vein thrombosis and common complications, including pulmonary embolism and post-thrombotic syndrome, represent a major source of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Experimental models of venous thrombosis have provided considerable insight into the cellular and molecular mechanisms that regulate thrombus formation and subsequent resolution. Here, we critically appraise the ex vivo and in vivo techniques used to assess venous thrombosis in these models. Particular attention is paid to imaging modalities, including magnetic resonance imaging, micro-computed tomography, and high-frequency ultrasound that facilitate longitudinal assessment of thrombus size and composition. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. A model for assessment of telemedicine applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kidholm, Kristian; Ekeland, Anne Granstrøm; Jensen, Lise Kvistgaard

    2012-01-01

    the European Commission initiated the development of a framework for assessing telemedicine applications, based on the users' need for information for decision making. This article presents the Model for ASsessment of Telemedicine applications (MAST) developed in this study.......Telemedicine applications could potentially solve many of the challenges faced by the healthcare sectors in Europe. However, a framework for assessment of these technologies is need by decision makers to assist them in choosing the most efficient and cost-effective technologies. Therefore in 2009...

  9. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  10. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  11. PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF A MODEL FOR ASSESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr NOVOTNÝ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Rail transport is an important sub-sector of transport infrastructure. Disruption of its operation due to emergencies can result in a reduction in functional parameters of provided services with consequent impacts on society. Identification of critical elements of this system enables its timely and effective protection. On that ground, the article presents a draft model for assessing the criticality of railway infrastructure elements. This model uses a systems approach and multicriteria semi-quantitative analysis with weighted criteria for calculating the criticality of individual elements of the railway infrastructure. In the conclusion, it presents a practical application of the proposed model including the discussion of results.

  12. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  13. Radionuclide transport and dose assessment modelling in biosphere assessment 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hjerpe, T.; Broed, R.

    2010-11-01

    Following the guidelines set forth by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (now Ministry of Employment and Economy), Posiva is preparing to submit a construction license application for the final disposal spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site, Finland, by the end of the year 2012. Disposal will take place in a geological repository implemented according to the KBS-3 method. The long-term safety section supporting the license application will be based on a safety case that, according to the internationally adopted definition, will be a compilation of the evidence, analyses and arguments that quantify and substantiate the safety and the level of expert confidence in the safety of the planned repository. This report documents in detail the conceptual and mathematical models and key data used in the landscape model set-up, radionuclide transport modelling, and radiological consequences analysis applied in the 2009 biosphere assessment. Resulting environmental activity concentrations in landscape model due to constant unit geosphere release rates, and the corresponding annual doses, are also calculated and presented in this report. This provides the basis for understanding the behaviour of the applied landscape model and subsequent dose calculations. (orig.)

  14. Susceptibility of Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) to pneumonia caused by Pasteurella haemolytica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreyt, W J; Silflow, R M; Lagerquist, J E

    1996-10-01

    We evaluated susceptibility of Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) to bacterial pneumonia induced by two strains of Pasteurella haemolytica of domestic sheep origin by evaluating the sensitivity of blood neutrophils of eight Dall sheep to lysis by cytotoxins of P. haemolytica, and by intratracheal inoculation of three Dall sheep, two bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), and two domestic sheep with 3.7 x 10(6) or 2.5 x 10(7) colony forming units of P. haemolytica. Neutrophils from the Dall sheep were more sensitive to lysis by cytotoxins from supernatants of a P. haemolytica, biotype A, serotype 2 (A2), of domestic sheep origin, than were neutrophils from six bighorn sheep. This cytotoxic bacterium was the same isolate that was used for intratracheal inoculation of two Dall sheep and two domestic sheep. Inoculation of this cytotoxic P. haemolytica A2 resulted in fatal fibrinopurulent pleuropneumonia in the first Dall sheep within 24 hr of inoculation, and pneumonic lesions in the second Dall sheep before it was euthanized 52 hr after inoculation. This strain of P. haemolytica A2 did not cause respiratory disease when inoculated into two domestic sheep. A noncytotoxic strain of P. haemolytica; biotype T, serotype 3,4,10 of domestic sheep origin did not result in pneumonia in the third Dall sheep or two bighorn sheep. Prior to inoculation, P. haemolytica, biotype T isolates were obtained from all three Dall sheep, but none of these isolates was cytotoxic. At necropsy, cytotoxic P. haemolytica A2 was isolated from lungs and other tissues of the two pneumonic Dall sheep. Based on these results, we conclude that Dall sheep appear to be at least as sensitive as bighorn sheep to pneumonia caused by P. haemolytica A2 of domestic sheep origin. Because in vitro and in vivo results appear closely correlated in this and other studies, we believe with additional evaluation and standardization, neutrophil cytotoxicity tests may serve as a substitute for live animal challenges in future

  15. Review and assessment of pool scrubbing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herranz, L.E.; Escudero, M.J.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.; Lopez, J.

    1996-01-01

    Decontamination of fission products bearing bubbles as they pass through aqueous pools becomes a crucial phenomenon for source term evaluation of hypothetical risk dominant sequences of Light Water Reactors. In the present report a peer review and assessment of models encapsulated in SPARC and BUSCA codes is presented. Several aspects of pool scrubbing have been addressed: particle removal, fission product vapour retention and bubble hydrodynamics. Particular emphasis has been given to the close link between retention and hydrodynamics, from both modelling and experimental point of view. In addition, RHR and SGTR sequences were simulated with SPARC90 and BUSCA-AUG92 codes, and their results were compared with those obtained with MAAP 3.0B. As a result of this work, model capabilities and shortcomings have been assessed and some areas susceptible of further research have been identified. (Author) 73 refs

  16. Review and assessment of pool scrubbing models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herranz, L.E.; Escudero, M.J.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.; Lopez, J.

    1996-07-01

    Decontamination of fission products bearing bubbles as they pass through aqueous pools becomes a crucial phenomenon for source term evaluation of hypothetical risk dominant sequences of Light Water Reactors. In the present report a peer review and assessment of models encapsulated in SPARC and BUSCA codes is presented. Several aspects of pool scrubbing have been addressed: particle removal, fission product vapour retention and bubble hydrodynamics. Particular emphasis has been given to the close link between retention and hydrodynamics, from both modelling and experimental point of view. In addition, RHR and SGTR sequences were simulated with SPARC90 and BUSCA-AUG92 codes, and their results were compared with those obtained with MAAP 3.0B. As a result of this work, model capabilities and shortcomings have been assessed and some areas susceptible of further research have been identified. (Author) 73 refs.

  17. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  18. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  19. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  20. Tailored model abstraction in performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessler, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    Total System Performance Assessments (TSPAs) are likely to be one of the most significant parts of making safety cases for the continued development and licensing of geologic repositories for the disposal of spent fuel and HLW. Thus, it is critical that the TSPA model capture the 'essence' of the physical processes relevant to demonstrating the appropriate regulation is met. But how much detail about the physical processes must be modeled and understood before there is enough confidence that the appropriate essence has been captured? In this summary the level of model abstraction that is required is discussed. Approaches for subsystem and total system performance analyses are outlined, and the role of best estimate models is examined. It is concluded that a conservative approach for repository performance, based on limited amount of field and laboratory data, can provide sufficient confidence for a regulatory decision

  1. Three Thousand Years of Continuity in the Maternal Lineages of Ancient Sheep (Ovis aries) in Estonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rannamäe, Eve; Lõugas, Lembi; Speller, Camilla F.; Valk, Heiki; Maldre, Liina; Wilczyński, Jarosław; Mikhailov, Aleksandr; Saarma, Urmas

    2016-01-01

    Although sheep (Ovis aries) have been one of the most exploited domestic animals in Estonia since the Late Bronze Age, relatively little is known about their genetic history. Here, we explore temporal changes in Estonian sheep populations and their mitochondrial genetic diversity over the last 3000 years. We target a 558 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial hypervariable region in 115 ancient sheep from 71 sites in Estonia (c. 1200 BC–AD 1900s), 19 ancient samples from Latvia, Russia, Poland and Greece (6800 BC–AD 1700), as well as 44 samples of modern Kihnu native sheep breed. Our analyses revealed: (1) 49 mitochondrial haplotypes, associated with sheep haplogroups A and B; (2) high haplotype diversity in Estonian ancient sheep; (3) continuity in mtDNA haplotypes through time; (4) possible population expansion during the first centuries of the Middle Ages (associated with the establishment of the new power regime related to 13th century crusades); (5) significant difference in genetic diversity between ancient populations and modern native sheep, in agreement with the beginning of large-scale breeding in the 19th century and population decline in local sheep. Overall, our results suggest that in spite of the observed fluctuations in ancient sheep populations, and changes in the natural and historical conditions, the utilisation of local sheep has been constant in the territory of Estonia, displaying matrilineal continuity from the Middle Bronze Age through the Modern Period, and into modern native sheep. PMID:27732668

  2. How Respiratory Pathogens Contribute to Lamb Mortality in a Poorly Performing Bighorn Sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) Herd.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Mary E; Fox, Karen A; Jennings-Gaines, Jessica; Killion, Halcyon J; Amundson, Sierra; Miller, Michael W; Edwards, William H

    2017-01-01

    We evaluated bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) ewes and their lambs in captivity to examine the sources and roles of respiratory pathogens causing lamb mortality in a poorly performing herd. After seven consecutive years of observed December recruitments of sheep from the remnant Gribbles Park herd in Colorado, US were captured and transported to the Thorne-Williams Wildlife Research Center in Wyoming in March 2013. Ewes were sampled repeatedly over 16 mo. In April 2014, ewes were separated into individual pens prior to lambing. Upon death, lambs were necropsied and tested for respiratory pathogens. Six lambs developed clinical respiratory disease and one lamb was abandoned. Pathology from an additional six lambs born in 2013 was also evaluated. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae , leukotoxigenic Mannheimia spp., leukotoxigenic Bibersteinia trehalosi , and Pasteurella multocida all contributed to lamb pneumonia. Histopathology suggested a continuum of disease, with lesions typical of pasteurellosis predominating in younger lambs and lesions typical of mycoplasmosis predominating in older lambs. Mixed pathology was observed in lambs dying between these timeframes. We suspected that all the ewes in our study were persistently infected and chronically shedding the bacteria that contributed to summer lamb mortality.

  3. Role of carriers in the transmission of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Bindu; Erickson, Kayla; Kugadas, Abirami; Batra, Sai A; Call, Douglas R; Davis, Margaret A; Foreyt, William J; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2016-06-15

    In the absence of livestock contact, recurring lamb mortality in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations previously exposed to pneumonia indicates the likely presence of carriers of pneumonia-causing pathogens, and possibly inadequate maternally derived immunity. To investigate this problem we commingled naïve, pregnant ewes (n=3) with previously exposed rams (n=2). Post-commingling, all ewes and lambs born to them acquired pneumonia-causing pathogens (leukotoxin-producing Pasteurellaceae and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae), with subsequent lamb mortality between 4-9 weeks of age. Infected ewes became carriers for two subsequent years and lambs born to them succumbed to pneumonia. In another experiment, we attempted to suppress the carriage of leukotoxin-producing Pasteurellaceae by administering an antibiotic to carrier ewes, and evaluated lamb survival. Lambs born to both treatment and control ewes (n=4 each) acquired pneumonia and died. Antibody titers against leukotoxin-producing Pasteurellaceae in all eight ewes were 'protective' (>1:800 and no apparent respiratory disease); however their lambs were either born with comparatively low titers, or with high (but non-protective) titers that declined rapidly within 2-8 weeks of age, rendering them susceptible to fatal disease. Thus, exposure to pneumonia-causing pathogens from carrier ewes, and inadequate titers of maternally derived protective antibodies, are likely to render bighorn lambs susceptible to fatal pneumonia. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  4. Role of carriers in the transmission of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bindu Raghavan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of livestock contact, recurring lamb mortality in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis populations previously exposed to pneumonia indicates the likely presence of carriers of pneumonia-causing pathogens, and possibly inadequate maternally derived immunity. To investigate this problem we commingled naïve, pregnant ewes (n=3 with previously exposed rams (n=2. Post-commingling, all ewes and lambs born to them acquired pneumonia-causing pathogens (leukotoxin-producing Pasteurellaceae and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, with subsequent lamb mortality between 4-9 weeks of age. Infected ewes became carriers for two subsequent years and lambs born to them succumbed to pneumonia. In another experiment, we attempted to suppress the carriage of leukotoxin-producing Pasteurellaceae by administering an antibiotic to carrier ewes, and evaluated lamb survival. Lambs born to both treatment and control ewes (n=4 each acquired pneumonia and died. Antibody titers against leukotoxin-producing Pasteurellaceae in all eight ewes were ‘protective’ (>1:800 and no apparent respiratory disease; however their lambs were either born with comparatively low titers, or with high (but non-protective titers that declined rapidly within 2-8 weeks of age, rendering them susceptible to fatal disease. Thus, exposure to pneumonia-causing pathogens from carrier ewes, and inadequate titers of maternally derived protective antibodies, are likely to render bighorn lambs susceptible to fatal pneumonia.

  5. Grazing by sheep Ovis aries reduces island populations of water voles Arvicola amphibius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Frafjord

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The population of water voles Arvicola amphibius was surveyed on 21 islands in the Solvær archipelago, northern Norway, in August 2012; 11 islands with semi-wild domestic sheep Ovis aries and 10 islands without sheep. Signs from water voles are very easy to detect and were used as a measure of the population (on a scale 0-10, and the numbers of sheep were counted. The ranking of signs on islands with and without sheep was compared, and a significant difference was found. Islands with sheep had, with one exception, only very small and fragmented populations of water voles, the one exception being a fairly large Carex swamp that was not grazed by the sheep and where a moderate-sized population of voles was found. Islands without sheep had much larger populations of water voles, giving a ranking about four times higher. One reason for the devastating effect of sheep on water voles is probably the fact that the sheep are living year-round on these islands with no supplemental food.

  6. Characterization of Trichuris skrjabini by isoenzyme gel electrophoresis: comparative study with Trichuris ovis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutillas, C; German, P; Arias, P; Guevara, D

    1996-10-01

    Morphological and biometric studies were performed in Trichuris skrjabini (Baskakov, 1924) collected from the caecum of Capra hircus. The LDH (EC 1.1.1.27.), G6PD (EC 1.1.1.49.), GPI (EC 5.3.1.9.), MDH (EC 1.1.1.37) and malic enzyme (ME) (EC 1.1.1.40) isoenzymatic patterns of T. skrjabini were determined by starch gel electrophoresis. The G6PD and GPI isoenzymatic patterns of T. skrjabini displayed two anodic bands for both enzymes: one fast migration band and one band near the origin. This isoenzymatic pattern was interpreted as two gene loci encoding both enzymes. The LDH isoenzymatic pattern of T. skrjabini was characterized by the presence of a cathodically migrating band, while the MDH isoenzymatic pattern showed a very slow cathodic band. These two phenotypes were interpreted as the expression of a homozygous state of a gene locus for LDH and MDH in T. skrjabini. The ME isoenzymatic pattern was characterized by the presence of a single anodic band. Further, comparative isoenzymatic studies were carried out between T. skrjabini and T. ovis. The different G6PD, GPI, LDH, MDH and ME isoenzymatic patterns observed for both species allowed us to distinguish them and therefore to use isoenzymatic patterns as a diagnostic tool to differentiate species of Trichuris.

  7. Effect of ionizing radiation on the virulence and the immunogenic properties of Babesia ovis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalacheva, M.; Kararizova, L.

    1977-01-01

    The effect was followed up of ionizing radiation of 20, 25, 30, 32, 35, 40 and 50 krad on the virulence and the immunigenic properties of B.ovis. The experiments were carried out with 22 sheep (20 test and 2 donor) according to the rate of treatment into 7 test groups with a total of 17 animals, and 1 control with 3 sheep. One month after infection with irradiated blood reinfection was carried out of 8 animals (of different groups) that had recovered, using virulent untrated blood. The titer of the antibodies in the remaining sheep was followed up by means of the complement fixation test. It was found that irradiation at 20 - 25 krad lowered the virulence of the Babesia organisms, but these could provoke the disease in an acute form and cause death. The animals that survived after being infected with the indicated doses developed a comparatively good immunity. It is considered that the most appropriate dose of irradiation is 30 krad. 32 and 35 krad do not kill Babesiae; the parasites thus irradiated, however, cannot protect the animals ar reinfection. It has been found that Babesiae irradiated at the rates of 40 and 450 krad do not cause an infection process, and at reinfection the animals respond almost in the same way as the controls. (author)

  8. Histomorphometric, fractal and lacunarity comparative analysis of sheep (Ovis aries), goat (Capra hircus) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) compact bone samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudea, A I; Stefan, A C

    2013-08-01

    Quantitative and qualitative studies dealing with histomorphometry of the bone tissue play a new role in modern legal medicine/forensic medicine and archaeozoology nowadays. This study deals with the differences found in case of humerus and metapodial bones of recent sheep (Ovis aries), goat (Capra hircus) and roedeer (Capreolus capreolus) specimens, both from a qualitative point of view, but mainly from a quantitative perspective. A novel perspective given by the fractal analysis performed on the digital histological images is approached. This study shows that the qualitative assessment may not be a reliable one due to the close resemblance of the structures. From the quantitative perspective (several measurements performed on osteonal units and statistical processing of data),some of the elements measured show significant differences among 3 species(the primary osteonal diameter, etc.). The fractal analysis and the lacunarity of the images show a great deal of potential, proving that this type of analysis can be of great help in the separation of the material from this perspective.

  9. Performance assessment modeling of pyrometallurgical process wasteforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nutt, W.M.; Hill, R.N.; Bullen, D.B.

    1995-01-01

    Performance assessment analyses have been completed to estimate the behavior of high-level nuclear wasteforms generated from the pyrometallurgical processing of liquid metal reactor (LMR) and light water reactor (LWR) spent nuclear fuel. Waste emplaced in the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is investigated as the basis for the study. The resulting cumulative actinide and fission product releases to the accessible environment within a 100,000 year period from the various pyrometallurgical process wasteforms are compared to those of directly disposed LWR spent fuel using the same total repository system model. The impact of differing radionuclide transport models on the overall release characteristics is investigated

  10. Nuclear security assessment with Markov model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear security risk assessment with the Markov model based on random event is performed to explore evaluation methodology for physical protection in nuclear facilities. Because the security incidences are initiated by malicious and intentional acts, expert judgment and Bayes updating are used to estimate scenario and initiation likelihood, and it is assumed that the Markov model derived from stochastic process can be applied to incidence sequence. Both an unauthorized intrusion as Design Based Threat (DBT) and a stand-off attack as beyond-DBT are assumed to hypothetical facilities, and performance of physical protection and mitigation and minimization of consequence are investigated to develop the assessment methodology in a semi-quantitative manner. It is shown that cooperation between facility operator and security authority is important to respond to the beyond-DBT incidence. (author)

  11. Improving Flood Damage Assessment Models in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amadio, M.; Mysiak, J.; Carrera, L.; Koks, E.

    2015-12-01

    The use of Stage-Damage Curve (SDC) models is prevalent in ex-ante assessments of flood risk. To assess the potential damage of a flood event, SDCs describe a relation between water depth and the associated potential economic damage over land use. This relation is normally developed and calibrated through site-specific analysis based on ex-post damage observations. In some cases (e.g. Italy) SDCs are transferred from other countries, undermining the accuracy and reliability of simulation results. Against this background, we developed a refined SDC model for Northern Italy, underpinned by damage compensation records from a recent flood event. Our analysis considers both damage to physical assets and production losses from business interruptions. While the first is calculated based on land use information, production losses are measured through the spatial distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA). An additional component of the model assesses crop-specific agricultural losses as a function of flood seasonality. Our results show an overestimation of asset damage from non-calibrated SDC values up to a factor of 4.5 for tested land use categories. Furthermore, we estimate that production losses amount to around 6 per cent of the annual GVA. Also, maximum yield losses are less than a half of the amount predicted by the standard SDC methods.

  12. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  13. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  14. Review and assessment of pool scrubbing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herranz, L.E.; Escudero, M.J.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.; Lopez-Jimenez, J.

    1996-01-01

    Decontamination of fission products bearing bubbles as they through aqueous pools becomes a crucial phenomenon for source term evaluation of hypothetical risk dominant sequences of Light Water Reactors. In the present report a peer review and assessment of models encapsulated in SPARC andBUSCA codes is presented. Several aspects of pool scrubbing have been addressed: particle removal, fission product vapour retention and bubble hydrodynamics. Particular emphasis has been given to the close link between retention and hydrodynamics, from both modelling and experimental point of view. In addition, RHR and SGTR sequences were simulated with SPARC90 and BUSCA-AUG92 codes, and their results were compared with those obtained with MAAP 3.0B.As a result of this work, model capabilities and shortcomings have beenassessed and some areas susceptible of further research have been identified.(Author) 73 refs

  15. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  16. Probabilistic Radiological Performance Assessment Modeling and Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauxe, J.

    2004-12-01

    A generic probabilistic radiological Performance Assessment (PA) model is presented. The model, built using the GoldSim systems simulation software platform, concerns contaminant transport and dose estimation in support of decision making with uncertainty. Both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) require assessments of potential future risk to human receptors of disposal of LLW. Commercially operated LLW disposal facilities are licensed by the NRC (or agreement states), and the DOE operates such facilities for disposal of DOE-generated LLW. The type of PA model presented is probabilistic in nature, and hence reflects the current state of knowledge about the site by using probability distributions to capture what is expected (central tendency or average) and the uncertainty (e.g., standard deviation) associated with input parameters, and propagating through the model to arrive at output distributions that reflect expected performance and the overall uncertainty in the system. Estimates of contaminant release rates, concentrations in environmental media, and resulting doses to human receptors well into the future are made by running the model in Monte Carlo fashion, with each realization representing a possible combination of input parameter values. Statistical summaries of the results can be compared to regulatory performance objectives, and decision makers are better informed of the inherently uncertain aspects of the model which supports their decision-making. While this information may make some regulators uncomfortable, they must realize that uncertainties which were hidden in a deterministic analysis are revealed in a probabilistic analysis, and the chance of making a correct decision is now known rather than hoped for. The model includes many typical features and processes that would be part of a PA, but is entirely fictitious. This does not represent any particular site and is meant to be a generic example. A

  17. Determination of Prevalence and Risk Factors of Infection with Babesia ovis in Small Ruminants from West Azerbaijan Province, Iran by Polymerase Chain Reaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijan Esmaeilnejad

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Small ruminants’ babesiosis caused by Babesia ovis, is transmitted during blood feeding by infected ticks and is the most economically important tick-borne disease in tropical and subtropical areas. This study was carried out to to estimate the infection rate of B. ovis in sheep and goats by PCR. We have analysed risk factors that might influence infection of sheep and goats with B. ovis.Methods: A total 402 blood samples were examined microscopically for the presence of Babesia infection. All samples were tested by PCR. During sampling, whole body of each animal and farm dogs was examined for the presence of ticks.Results: Forty-two animals (10.4% were positive for Babesia spp. upon microscopic examination, whereas 67 animals (16.7% yielded the specific DNA for B. ovis of which 52 animals were sheep and 15 animals were goats.Twenty-nine farms (72.5% were found positive for B. ovis. The percentage of positive animals in each location varied from 13 % to 20 %. The relative risk of the presence of ticks in sheep and goats (P< 0.01 and farm dogs (P< 0.01 for PCRpositive results forB. ovis in sheep and goats was found 3.8 and 2.9, respectively. A total of 747 ticks identified as Rhipicephalus bursa, R. sanguineus and R. turanicus on the basis of morphological features.Conclusion: Other animal species besides dogs may also be risk factors for babesiosis in sheep and goats. Also, R. bursa may play an important role as a vector of the parasite in Iran.

  18. Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelaziz, Adel; Koshak, Emad

    2014-01-01

    Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment.

  19. The MESORAD dose assessment model: Computer code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Bander, T.J.; Scherpelz, R.I.

    1988-10-01

    MESORAD is a dose equivalent model for emergency response applications that is designed to be run on minicomputers. It has been developed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory for use as part of the Intermediate Dose Assessment System in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Operations Center in Washington, DC, and the Emergency Management System in the US Department of Energy Unified Dose Assessment Center in Richland, Washington. This volume describes the MESORAD computer code and contains a listing of the code. The technical basis for MESORAD is described in the first volume of this report (Scherpelz et al. 1986). A third volume of the documentation planned. That volume will contain utility programs and input and output files that can be used to check the implementation of MESORAD. 18 figs., 4 tabs

  20. Consideraciones epidemiológicas en la prevalencia serológica de Brucella ovis en Zacatecas, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Maria Carrera Chávez

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available La epididimitis causada por Brucella ovis es una enfermedad de importancia en los rebaños ovinos de México. En los sementales afectados ocasiona baja productividad por la disminución de la fertilidad. El objetivo del estudio fue determinar la relevancia de diferentes posibles factores de riesgo (sistema de producción, densidad de sementales, total de vientres, relación hembras:macho, sistema de empadre y raza del semental sobre la prevalencia de B. ovis en Zacatecas, México. Se muestrearon 544 sementales, en 153 rebaños, provenientes de cuatro sistemas de producción. La respuesta serológica se evaluó mediante inmunodifusión doble en gel. El 18.6 % (101/544 de los sementales muestreados resultaron positivos y el 10.5 % (16/153 de los rebaños presentó al menos un semental positivo. El sistema semi-intensivo presentó la mayor prevalencia (P<0.05, con 86.1 % (87/101 de sementales positivos, el extensivo 11.9 % (12/101, el traspatio 2.0 % (2/101, y el intensivo no registró positivos. La prevalencia de B. ovis fue más alta en los rebaños más grandes, con mayor número de vientres y sementales. Los sementales de raza Katahdin mostraron mayor prevalencia (30.8 % (24/78 que los Rambouillet (14.0 % (18/129, Dorper (13.8 % (31/224 y Suffolk (13.8 % (8/58 (P<0.05. La prevalencia se relacionó más con el sistema de producción utilizado que con la relación hembras:macho o el sistema de empadre. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que la cantidad de sementales en el rebaño es el factor de mayor relevancia en la prevalencia serológica de B. ovis (OR = 17.38, 95 % IC 7.76 a 38.94, aunque pudiera estar supeditado al sistema de producción.

  1. Cellular distribution, purification and electrophoretic properties of malate dehydrogenase in Trichuris ovis and inhibition by benzimidazoles and pyrimidine derivatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Moreno, M; Ortega, J E; Valero, A

    1989-12-01

    High levels of malate dehydrogenase were found in Trichuris ovis. Two molecular forms of the enzyme, of different cellular location and electrophoretic pattern, were isolated and purified. The activity of soluble malate dehydrogenase was greater than that of mitochondrial malate dehydrogenase. Both forms also displayed different electrophoretic profiles in comparison with purified extracts from goat (Capra hircus) liver. Substrate concentration directly affected enzyme activity. Host and parasite malate dehydrogenase activity were both inhibited by a series of benzimidazoles and pyrimidine-derived compounds, some of which markedly reduced parasite enzyme activity, but not host enzyme activity. Percentage inhibition by some pyrimidine derivatives was greater than that produced by benzimidazoles.

  2. Ovis aries CR4 is involved in Mannheimia haemolytica leukotoxin-induced cytotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Paulraj K; Dassanayake, Rohana P

    2010-06-15

    Pneumonia caused by Mannheimia haemolytica is an important disease of domestic sheep (DS, Ovis aries) and cattle (BO). M. haemolytica is a normal commensal of the upper respiratory tract in ruminants, but during stress and viral infection it breaches the host innate mucosal defense and descents into lungs causing fibrinous pleuropneumonia. Leukotoxin (Lkt) produced by M. haemolytica is cytolytic to all subsets of ruminant leukocytes. Earlier, we and others have shown that DS and BO LFA-1 (CD11a/CD18) and Mac-1 (CD11b/CD18) can mediate Lkt-induced cytolysis. It is not clear whether CR4 (CD11c/CD18), which is involved in chemotaxis, phagocytosis and regulates host immune response can also mediate Lkt-induced cytolysis in ruminants. The host innate immune response to M. haemolytica is poorly understood and the involvement of CR4 in M. haemolytica pathogenesis is one of the most understudied. This problem is further compounded by the lack of cd11c genes from any ruminant species. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to clone cd11c and determine whether CR4 can serve as a receptor for Lkt. In this direction we cloned two alleles of cd11c gene from leukocytes isolated from DS blood by RT-PCR. Transfectants developed expressing functional DS CR4 were found to be cytotoxic to Lkt from four different isolates of M. haemolytica. This is the first report confirming the ability of a recombinant ovine CR4 to bind to M. haemolytica Lkt and mediate concentration-dependent lysis of host cells, thus, confirming their role in M. haemolytica pathogenesis. This is a critical step in understanding host innate immunity and the management of pneumonia in sheep. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Protostrongylid parasites and pneumonia in captive and wild thinhorn sheep (Ovis dalli).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, E J; Veitch, A M; Kutz, S J; Bollinger, T K; Chirino-Trejo, J M; Elkin, B T; West, K H; Hoberg, E P; Polley, L

    2007-04-01

    We describe health significance of protostrongylid parasites (Parelaphostrongylus odocoilei and Protostrongylus stilesi) and other respiratory pathogens in more than 50 naturally infected Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) from the Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories (1998-2002) as well as in three Stone's sheep (O. d. stonei) experimentally infected with P. odocoilei (2000-2002). Histological lesions in the brain and distribution of P. odocoilei in the muscles of experimentally and naturally infected sheep were consistent with a previously hypothesized "central nervous system to muscle" pattern of migration for P. odocoilei. Dimensions of granulomas associated with eggs of P. odocoilei and density of protostrongylid eggs and larvae in the cranial lung correlated with intensity of larvae in feces, and all varied with season of collection. Prevalence of P. stilesi based on the presence of larvae in feces underestimated true prevalence (based on examination of lungs) in wild Dall's sheep collected in summer and fall. Similarly, counts of both types of protostrongylid larvae in feces were unreliable indicators of parasitic infection in wild Dall's sheep with concomitant bacterial pneumonia associated with Arcanobacterium pyogenes, Pasteurella sp., and Mannheimia sp. Diffuse, interstitial pneumonia due to P. odocoilei led to fatal pulmonary hemorrhage and edema after exertion in one experimentally infected Stone's sheep and one naturally infected Dall's sheep. Bacterial and verminous pneumonia associated with pathogens endemic in wild Dall's sheep in the Mackenzie Mountains caused sporadic mortalities. There was no evidence of respiratory viruses or bacterial strains associated with domestic ruminants, from which this population of wild sheep has been historically isolated.

  4. Genotype and Phenotype of Echinococcus granulosus Derived from Wild Sheep (Ovis orientalis) in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Ali; Meshgi, Behnam; Jalousian, Fatemeh; Rahmani, Shima; Salari, Mohammad Ali

    2016-02-01

    The aim of the present study is to determine the characteristics of genotype and phenotype of Echinococcus granulosus derived from wild sheep and to compare them with the strains of E. granulosus sensu stricto (sheep-dog) and E. granulosus camel strain (camel-dog) in Iran. In Khojir National Park, near Tehran, Iran, a fertile hydatid cyst was recently found in the liver of a dead wild sheep (Ovis orientalis). The number of protoscolices (n=6,000) proved enough for an experimental infection in a dog. The characteristics of large and small hooks of metacestode were statistically determined as the sensu stricto strain but not the camel strain (P=0.5). To determine E. granulosus genotype, 20 adult worms of this type were collected from the infected dog. The second internal transcribed spacer (ITS2) of the nuclear ribosomal DNA (rDNA) and cytochrome c oxidase 1 subunit (COX1) of the mitochondrial DNA were amplified from individual adult worm by PCR. Subsequently, the PCR product was sequenced by Sanger method. The lengths of ITS2 and COX1 sequences were 378 and 857 bp, respectively, for all the sequenced samples. The amplified DNA sequences from both ribosomal and mitochondrial genes were highly similar (99% and 98%, respectively) to that of the ovine strain in the GenBank database. The results of the present study indicate that the morpho-molecular features and characteristics of E. granulosus in the Iranian wild sheep are the same as those of the sheep-dog E. granulosus sensu stricto strain.

  5. Local extinction and unintentional rewilding of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis on a desert island.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin T Wilder

    Full Text Available Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ∼500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14C-dated to 1476-1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ∼1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct.

  6. Local extinction and unintentional rewilding of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) on a desert island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, Benjamin T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Epps, Clinton W.; Crowhurst, Rachel S.; Mead, Jim I.; Ezcurra, Exequiel

    2014-01-01

    Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ~500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14C-dated to 1476–1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ~1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or) human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct.

  7. Local Extinction and Unintentional Rewilding of Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis) on a Desert Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, Benjamin T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Epps, Clinton W.; Crowhurst, Rachel S.; Mead, Jim I.; Ezcurra, Exequiel

    2014-01-01

    Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ∼500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14C-dated to 1476–1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ∼1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or) human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct. PMID:24646515

  8. Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelaziz A

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Adel Abdelaziz,1,2 Emad Koshak3 1Medical Education Development Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia; 2Medical Education Department, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Egypt; 3Dean and Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia Abstract: Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment. Keywords: curriculum development, teaching, learning, assessment, apprenticeship, community-based settings, health service-based settings

  9. Assessing elders using the functional health pattern assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyea, S; Matzo, M

    1989-01-01

    The impact of older Americans on the health care system requires we increase our students' awareness of their unique needs. The authors discuss strategies to develop skills using Gordon's Functional Health Patterns Assessment for assessing older clients.

  10. An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released an external review draft entitled, An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios(External Review Draft). The public comment period and the external peer-review workshop are separate processes that provide opportunities for all interested parties to comment on the document. In addition to consideration by EPA, all public comments submitted in accordance with this notice will also be forwarded to EPA’s contractor for the external peer-review panel prior to the workshop. EPA has realeased this draft document solely for the purpose of pre-dissemination peer review under applicable information quality guidelines. This document has not been formally disseminated by EPA. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any Agency policy or determination. The purpose of this report is to describe an exploratory investigation of potential dioxin exposures to artists/hobbyists who use ball clay to make pottery and related products.

  11. Modelling saline intrusion for repository performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, C.P.

    1989-04-01

    UK Nirex Ltd are currently considering the possibility of disposal of radioactive waste by burial in deep underground repositories. The natural pathway for radionuclides from such a repository to return to Man's immediate environment (the biosphere) is via groundwater. Thus analyses of the groundwater flow in the neighbourhood of a possible repository, and consequent radionuclide transport form an important part of a performance assessment for a repository. Some of the areas in the UK that might be considered as possible locations for a repository are near the coast. If a repository is located in a coastal region seawater may intrude into the groundwater flow system. As seawater is denser than fresh water buoyancy forces acting on the intruding saline water may have significant effects on the groundwater flow system, and consequently on the time for radionuclides to return to the biosphere. Further, the chemistry of the repository near-field may be strongly influenced by the salinity of the groundwater. It is therefore important for Nirex to have a capability for reliably modelling saline intrusion to an appropriate degree of accuracy in order to make performance assessments for a repository in a coastal region. This report describes work undertaken in the Nirex Research programme to provide such a capability. (author)

  12. A comparison of two agar gel immunodiffusion methods and a complement fixation test for serologic diagnosis of Brucella ovis infection in experimentally infected rams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.N. Xavier

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A infecção por Brucella ovis é considerada uma das principais causas de epididimite e infertilidade em carneiros, resultando em falhas reprodutivas e perdas econômicas significativas em rebanhos ovinos ao redor do mundo. O estudo teve o objetivo de avaliar três testes sorológicos disponíveis para o diagnóstico da brucelose ovina por B. ovis, utilizando 181 soros ovinos. Amostras de soro provenientes de carneiros experimentalmente infectados foram coletadas ao longo de 192 dias pós-infecção (n=117 e durante o período pré-infecção (n=9. Adicionalmente, amostras de soro foram obtidas de ovinos provenientes de um rebanho livre para B. ovis (n=55. As técnicas de imunodifusão em gel de agar (IDGA, utilizando dois antígenos disponíveis comercialmente, e de fixação de complemento foram comparadas (FC. Foram obtidos resultados de sensibilidade especificidade semelhantes para ambos os métodos de IDGA e ainda, a técnica de IDGA foi mais eficiente do que a da FC para o diagnóstico sorológico da infecção por B. ovis.

  13. Phylogeographic and population genetic structure of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) in North American deserts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchalski, Michael R; Sacks, Benjamin N; Gille, Daphne A; Penedo, Maria Cecilia T; Ernest, Holly B; Morrison, Scott A; Boyce, Walter M

    2016-06-09

    Fossil data are ambiguous regarding the evolutionary origin of contemporary desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis subspecies). To address this uncertainty, we conducted phylogeographic and population genetic analyses on bighorn sheep subspecies found in southwestern North America. We analyzed 515 base pairs of mtDNA control region sequence and 39 microsatellites in 804 individuals from 58 locations. Phylogenetic analyses revealed 2 highly divergent clades concordant with Sierra Nevada ( O. c. sierrae ) and Rocky Mountain ( O. c. canadensis ) bighorn and showed that these 2 subspecies both diverged from desert bighorn prior to or during the Illinoian glaciation (~315-94 thousand years ago [kya]). Desert bighorn comprised several more recently diverged haplogroups concordant with the putative Nelson ( O. c. nelsoni ), Mexican ( O. c. mexicana ), and Peninsular ( O. c. cremnobates ) subspecies. Corresponding estimates of effective splitting times (~17-3 kya), and haplogroup ages (~85-72 kya) placed the most likely timeframe for divergence among desert bighorn subspecies somewhere within the last glacial maximum. Median-joining haplotype network and Bayesian skyline analyses both indicated that desert bighorn collectively comprised a historically large and haplotype-diverse population, which subsequently lost much of its diversity through demographic decline. Using microsatellite data, discriminant analysis of principle components (DAPC) and Bayesian clustering analyses both indicated genetic structure concordant with the geographic distribution of 3 desert subspecies. Likewise, microsatellite and mitochondrial-based F ST comparisons revealed significant fixation indices among the desert bighorn genetic clusters. We conclude these desert subspecies represent ancient lineages likely descended from separate Pleistocene refugial populations and should therefore be managed as distinct taxa to preserve maximal biodiversity. Los datos de fósiles sobre el origen evolutivo

  14. Accuracy Assessment of Different Digital Surface Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Alganci

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Digital elevation models (DEMs, which can occur in the form of digital surface models (DSMs or digital terrain models (DTMs, are widely used as important geospatial information sources for various remote sensing applications, including the precise orthorectification of high-resolution satellite images, 3D spatial analyses, multi-criteria decision support systems, and deformation monitoring. The accuracy of DEMs has direct impacts on specific calculations and process chains; therefore, it is important to select the most appropriate DEM by considering the aim, accuracy requirement, and scale of each study. In this research, DSMs obtained from a variety of satellite sensors were compared to analyze their accuracy and performance. For this purpose, freely available Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER 30 m, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM 30 m, and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS 30 m resolution DSM data were obtained. Additionally, 3 m and 1 m resolution DSMs were produced from tri-stereo images from the SPOT 6 and Pleiades high-resolution (PHR 1A satellites, respectively. Elevation reference data provided by the General Command of Mapping, the national mapping agency of Turkey—produced from 30 cm spatial resolution stereo aerial photos, with a 5 m grid spacing and ±3 m or better overall vertical accuracy at the 90% confidence interval (CI—were used to perform accuracy assessments. Gross errors and water surfaces were removed from the reference DSM. The relative accuracies of the different DSMs were tested using a different number of checkpoints determined by different methods. In the first method, 25 checkpoints were selected from bare lands to evaluate the accuracies of the DSMs on terrain surfaces. In the second method, 1000 randomly selected checkpoints were used to evaluate the methods’ accuracies for the whole study area. In addition to the control point approach, vertical cross

  15. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  16. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  17. Critical assessment of nuclear mass models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Some of the physical assumptions underlying various nuclear mass models are discussed. The ability of different mass models to predict new masses that were not taken into account when the models were formulated and their parameters determined is analyzed. The models are also compared with respect to their ability to describe nuclear-structure properties in general. The analysis suggests future directions for mass-model development

  18. Reappearance of Taenia ovis krabbei muscle cysts in a roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in Denmark after 60+ years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Sabi, Mohammad Nafi Solaiman; Chriél, Mariann; Holm, Elisabeth; Jensen, Tim Kåre; Ståhl, Marie; Enemark, Heidi Larsen

    2013-09-01

    The present report describes the reappearance of Taenia ovis krabbei in a roe deer from Denmark after more than 60 years. The cysticerci were isolated from the thigh muscle of the deer, and the diagnosis was based on histostological analysis, morphology of the rostellar-hooks as well as molecular typing of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (cox1) gene. The exact definitive host was not revealed in this report, but domestic dogs may play a role of the definitive host in the area. This finding is of concern to hunters and deer meat producers, since the infected meat is usually condemned due to esthetic reasons. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A comparative study of ketone body metabolism between the camel (Camelus dromedarius) and the sheep (Ovis aries).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrasena, L G; Emmanuel, B; Hamar, D W; Howard, B R

    1979-01-01

    1. Plasma levels of beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), and acetoacetate (AcAc) have been measured in camels (Camelus dromedarius) and sheep (Ovis aries). The activity of beta-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (BHB-deH2) (E.C. 1.1.1.30) was studied in the rumen epithelium and the liver of these animals. 2. Concentrations of plasma BHB and AcAc in the camel were in respective order 33 and 4 times lower than that of the sheep. The ratios of BHB to AcAc were 0.61 and 4.8 for the camel and sheep, respectively. 3. The activity of BHB-deH2 in the rumen epithelium of the camel and sheep were 7.15 and 66 mumol/hr/g wet wt tissue, respectively. The activity in both species was higher in the rumen epithelium than in the liver.

  20. Natural infection by gastrointestinal and bronchopulmonary nematodes in mouflons (Ovis musimon) and their response to netobimin treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meana, A; Luzón-Peña, M; Santiago-Moreno, J; De Bulnes, A; Gómez-Bautista, M

    1996-01-01

    Gastrointestinal and bronchopulmonary nematode infections and the efficacy of netobimin (Hapasil) were analyzed by way of fecal examination in 10 female mouflons (Ovis musimon), in central Spain, February 1993. Before treatment all 10 mouflons had Trichostrongylus axei, Teladorsagia circumcincta and Marshallagia spp.; sic had Nematodirus spp., two had Trichuris sp., one had Capillaria sp., seven had bronchopulmonary Dictyocaulus filaria and 10 mouflons had protostrongylid lungworms (Muellerius capillaris, Protostrongylus rufescens, Cystocaulus ocreatus or Neostrongylus linearis). Netobimin (7.5 mg/kg) was 100% effective against T. axei, T. circumcincta, Marshallagia spp., and D. filaria infections whereas one animal continued eliminating Nematodirus spp. eggs. The drug also was effective against Capillaria spp. but not against Trichuris spp. or protostrongylid infections.

  1. The Development of a Secondary School Health Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriring, Srinual; Erawan, Prawit; Sriwarom, Monoon

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this research was to: 1) involved a survey of information relating to secondary school health, 2) involved the construction of a model of health assessment and a handbook for using the model in secondary school, 3) develop an assessment model for secondary school. The research included 3 phases. (1) involved a survey of…

  2. A study on in vitro culture of Trichuris ovis in different physiological solutions at constant temperature, 37°C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Tikam; Lal, S S

    2011-06-01

    The primary aim of in vitro culture of whipworms (Trichuris ovis) is to provide artificial conditions under which the life cycle of the parasites completed outside the host under controlled conditions. The physiological solutions used for the present study were sodium chloride (0.64%), Ringer's solution, Tyrode's solution, and Lock-Lewis solution. Parasites were collected from freshly slaughtered intestine of the host. The recovered parasites were washed with running tap water after that with normal saline. After washing parasites were put in four petridishes containing different physiological solutions. Observations were recorded after interval of every 8 h. The hundred percent survival of Trichuris ovis was observed at 32, 40, and 48 h in NaCl (0.64%), Ringer's, Tyrode's, and Lock-Lewis solution, respectively in case of both male and female parasites. In sodium chloride solution (0.64%) cent percent mortality was observed after 64 h of incubation in males and in case of females it was observed 72 h. In Ringer's solution cent percent mortality was observed after 72 in males and in females it was observed 80 h. In Tyrode's solution cent percent mortality was observed after 88 h in males and 96 h in females. In Lock-Lewis solution cent percent mortality was observed after 96 h in case of both the male and female parasites. Present study could be used to understand the effects of various drugs on the above parasites and also other intra-intestinal parasites.

  3. FORMATIVE ASSESSMENT MODEL OF LEARNING SUCCESS ACHIEVEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhailova Elena Konstantinovna

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the problem of assessment of the school students’ learning success achievements. The problem is investigated from the viewpoint of assessing the students’ learning outcomes that is aimed to ensure the teachers and students with the means and conditions to improve the educational process and results.

  4. Assessing Asset Pricing Models Using Revealed Preference

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan B. Berk; Jules H. van Binsbergen

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new method of testing asset pricing models that relies on using quantities rather than prices or returns. We use the capital flows into and out of mutual funds to infer which risk model investors use. We derive a simple test statistic that allows us to infer, from a set of candidate models, the model that is closest to the model that investors use in making their capital allocation decisions. Using this methodology, we find that of the models most commonly used in the literature,...

  5. Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. French

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.

  6. A comparison of models for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellerer, A.M.; Jing Chen

    1993-01-01

    Various mathematical models have been used to represent the dependence of excess cancer risk on dose, age and time since exposure. For solid cancers, i.e. all cancers except leukaemia, the so-called relative risk model is usually employed. However, there can be quite different relative risk models. The most usual model for the quantification of excess tumour rate among the atomic bomb survivors has been a dependence of the relative risk on age at exposure, but it has been shown recently that an age attained model can be equally applied, to represent the observations among the atomic bomb survivors. The differences between the models and their implications are explained. It is also shown that the age attained model is similar to the approaches that have been used in the analysis of lung cancer incidence among radon exposed miners. A more unified approach to modelling of radiation risks can thus be achieved. (3 figs.)

  7. Assessment of multi class kinematic wave models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Vuik, C.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade many multi class kinematic wave (MCKW) traffic ow models have been proposed. MCKW models introduce heterogeneity among vehicles and drivers. For example, they take into account differences in (maximum) velocities and driving style. Nevertheless, the models are macroscopic and the

  8. Theoretical Models, Assessment Frameworks and Test Construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalhoub-Deville, Micheline

    1997-01-01

    Reviews the usefulness of proficiency models influencing second language testing. Findings indicate that several factors contribute to the lack of congruence between models and test construction and make a case for distinguishing between theoretical models. Underscores the significance of an empirical, contextualized and structured approach to the…

  9. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  10. Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marson, Daniel

    2016-09-01

    The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  12. The Automation of Nowcast Model Assessment Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    secondly, provide modelers with the information needed to understand the model errors and how their algorithm changes might mitigate these errors. In...by ARL modelers. 2. Development Environment The automation of Point-Stat processes (i.e., PSA) was developed using Python 3.5.* Python was selected...because it is easy to use, widely used for scripting, and satisfies all the requirements to automate the implementation of the Point-Stat tool. In

  13. Quality assessment for radiological model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funtowicz, S.O.

    1989-01-01

    A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological model parameters is introduced. This follows earlier development in this journal of a corresponding framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data. Refinements and extensions to the earlier framework are needed in order to take account of the additional contextual factors consequent on using data entries to quantify model parameters. The parameter coding can in turn feed in to methods for evaluating uncertainties in calculated model outputs. (author)

  14. Polytomous Rasch Models in Counseling Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willse, John T.

    2017-01-01

    This article provides a brief introduction to the Rasch model. Motivation for using Rasch analyses is provided. Important Rasch model concepts and key aspects of result interpretation are introduced, with major points reinforced using a simulation demonstration. Concrete guidelines are provided regarding sample size and the evaluation of items.

  15. [Distribution of nematode parasites of the digestive system in sheep (Ovis aries) and goats (Capra hircus) of the Piedmontese and Valdostano Alpine arc].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbo, T; Costantini, R; Gallo, M G; Lanfranchi, P

    1977-01-01

    A survey, carried out on gastro-intestinal nematodes of sheep and goats of Piemonte and of Valle d'Aosta (87 sheep and 12 goats) has shown the presence of the following species in sheep, Bunostomum trigonocephalum, Chabertia ovina, Cooperia curticei, Haemonchus contortus, Marshallagia marshalli, Nematodirus abnormalis, Nematodirus filicollis, Nematodirus helvetianus, Nematodirus spathiger, Oesophagostomum venulosum, Ostertagia circumcincta, Ostertagia lyrata, Ostertagia trifurcata, Skrjabinema ovis, Trichostrongylus axei, Trichostronglus colubriformis, Trichostronglus vitrinus, Trichuris ovis and Trichuris skrjabini; in goats, Bunostomum trigonocephalum, Chabertia ovina, Haemonchus contortus, Nematodirus filicollis, Nematodirus helvetianus, Oesophagostomum venulosum, Ostertagia circumcincta, Ostertagia ostertagi, Ostertagia trifurcata, Trichostrongylus axei, Trichostrongylus colubriformis and Trichostrongylus vitrinus. The percentage of each species in the two host is given in the text table.

  16. Assessing a Theoretical Model on EFL College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yu-Ping

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to (1) integrate relevant language learning models and theories, (2) construct a theoretical model of college students' English learning performance, and (3) assess the model fit between empirically observed data and the theoretical model proposed by the researchers of this study. Subjects of this study were 1,129 Taiwanese EFL…

  17. Assessing Model Characterization of Single Source ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aircraft measurements made downwind from specific coal fired power plants during the 2013 Southeast Nexus field campaign provide a unique opportunity to evaluate single source photochemical model predictions of both O3 and secondary PM2.5 species. The model did well at predicting downwind plume placement. The model shows similar patterns of an increasing fraction of PM2.5 sulfate ion to the sum of SO2 and PM2.5 sulfate ion by distance from the source compared with ambient based estimates. The model was less consistent in capturing downwind ambient based trends in conversion of NOX to NOY from these sources. Source sensitivity approaches capture near-source O3 titration by fresh NO emissions, in particular subgrid plume treatment. However, capturing this near-source chemical feature did not translate into better downwind peak estimates of single source O3 impacts. The model estimated O3 production from these sources but often was lower than ambient based source production. The downwind transect ambient measurements, in particular secondary PM2.5 and O3, have some level of contribution from other sources which makes direct comparison with model source contribution challenging. Model source attribution results suggest contribution to secondary pollutants from multiple sources even where primary pollutants indicate the presence of a single source. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, deci

  18. Mathematical Models for Camouflage Pattern Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    Matemático Facultad de Ciencias F́ısicas y Matemáticas http://www.cmm.uchile.cl DISTRIBUTION A: Distribution approved for public release University of Chile...Centro de Modelamiento Matemático Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas Final Report: Camouage Assessment January 2013 Abstract The main

  19. Structure ignition assessment model (SIAM)\\t

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack D. Cohen

    1995-01-01

    Major wildland/urban interface fire losses, principally residences, continue to occur. Although the problem is not new, the specific mechanisms are not well known on how structures ignite in association with wildland fires. In response to the need for a better understanding of wildland/urban interface ignition mechanisms and a method of assessing the ignition risk,...

  20. Auditory modelling for assessing room acoustics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dorp Schuitman, J.

    2011-01-01

    The acoustics of a concert hall, or any other room, are generally assessed by measuring room impulse responses for one or multiple source and receiver location(s). From these responses, objective parameters can be determined that should be related to various perceptual attributes of room acoustics.

  1. Specialty Payment Model Opportunities and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulcahy, Andrew W.; Chan, Chris; Hirshman, Samuel; Huckfeldt, Peter J.; Kofner, Aaron; Liu, Jodi L.; Lovejoy, Susan L.; Popescu, Ioana; Timbie, Justin W.; Hussey, Peter S.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Gastroenterology and cardiology services are common and costly among Medicare beneficiaries. Episode-based payment, which aims to create incentives for high-quality, low-cost care, has been identified as a promising alternative payment model. This article describes research related to the design of episode-based payment models for ambulatory gastroenterology and cardiology services for possible testing by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The authors analyzed Medicare claims data to describe the frequency and characteristics of gastroenterology and cardiology index procedures, the practices that delivered index procedures, and the patients that received index procedures. The results of these analyses can help inform CMS decisions about the definition of episodes in an episode-based payment model; payment adjustments for service setting, multiple procedures, or other factors; and eligibility for the payment model. PMID:28083363

  2. Higher Education Quality Assessment Model: Towards Achieving Educational Quality Standard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noaman, Amin Y.; Ragab, Abdul Hamid M.; Madbouly, Ayman I.; Khedra, Ahmed M.; Fayoumi, Ayman G.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a developed higher education quality assessment model (HEQAM) that can be applied for enhancement of university services. This is because there is no universal unified quality standard model that can be used to assess the quality criteria of higher education institutes. The analytical hierarchy process is used to identify the…

  3. Assessing The Performance of Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knijff, Johan

    The performance of hydrological models is often characterized using the coefficient of efficiency, E. The sensitivity of E to extreme streamflow values, and the difficulty of deciding what value of E should be used as a threshold to identify 'good' models or model parameterizations, have proven to be serious shortcomings of this index. This paper reviews some alternative performance indices that have appeared in the litera- ture. Legates and McCabe (1999) suggested a more generalized form of E, E'(j,B). Here, j is a parameter that controls how much emphasis is put on extreme streamflow values, and B defines a benchmark or 'null hypothesis' against which the results of the model are tested. E'(j,B) was used to evaluate a large number of parameterizations of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, using 6 different combinations of j and B. First, the effect of j and B is explained. Second, it is demonstrated how the index can be used to explicitly test hypotheses about the model and the data. This approach appears to be particularly attractive if the index is used as a likelihood measure within a GLUE-type analysis.

  4. A normative model for assessing competitive strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Ungerer, Gerard David; Cayzer, Steve

    2016-01-01

    The hyper-competitive nature of e-business has raised the need for a generic way to appraise the merit of a developed business strategy. Although progress has been made in the domain of strategy evaluation, the established literature differs over the ‘tests’ that a strategy must pass to be considered well-constructed. This paper therefore investigates the existing strategy-evaluation literature to propose a more integrated and comprehensive normative strategic assessment that can be used to e...

  5. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  6. Assessing physical models used in nuclear aerosol transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, B.H.

    1987-01-01

    Computer codes used to predict the behaviour of aerosols in water-cooled reactor containment buildings after severe accidents contain a variety of physical models. Special models are in place for describing agglomeration processes where small aerosol particles combine to form larger ones. Other models are used to calculate the rates at which aerosol particles are deposited on building structures. Condensation of steam on aerosol particles is currently a very active area in aerosol modelling. In this paper, the physical models incorporated in the current available international codes for all of these processes are reviewed and documented. There is considerable variation in models used in different codes, and some uncertainties exist as to which models are superior. 28 refs

  7. Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray; Kidholm, Kristian; Yderstræde, Knud Bonnet; Pedersen, Kjeld Møller

    2017-08-01

    Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models for early assessment in different health organisations and discusses which models hold most promise for hospital decision makers. A scoping review of published studies between 1996 and 2015 was performed using nine databases. The following information was collected: decision context, decision problem, and a description of the early assessment model. 2362 articles were identified and 12 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. An additional 12 studies were identified and included in the review by searching reference lists. The majority of the 24 early assessment studies were variants of traditional cost-effectiveness analysis. Around one fourth of the studies presented an evaluation model with a broader focus than cost-effectiveness. Uncertainty was mostly handled by simple sensitivity or scenario analysis. This review shows that evaluation models using known methods assessing cost-effectiveness are most prevalent in early assessment, but seems ill-suited for early assessment in hospitals. Four models provided some usable elements for the development of a hospital-based model. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Regional Models for Sediment Toxicity Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper investigates the use of empirical models to predict the toxicity of sediment samples within a region to laboratory test organisms based on sediment chemistry. In earlier work, we used a large nationwide database of matching sediment chemistry and marine amphipod sedim...

  9. Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); D.M. Hanssens (Dominique)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe question of long-run market response lies at the heart of any marketing strategy that tries to create a sustainable competitive advantage for the firm or brand. A key challenge, however, is that only short-run results of marketing actions are readily observable. Persistence modeling

  10. The air emissions risk assessment model (AERAM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gratt, L.B.

    1991-01-01

    AERAM is an environmental analysis and power generation station investment decision support tool. AERAM calculates the public health risk (in terms of the lifetime cancers) in the nearby population from pollutants released into the air. AERAM consists of four main subroutines: Emissions, Air, Exposure and Risk. The Emission subroutine uses power plant parameters to calculate the expected release of the pollutants. A coal-fired and oil-fired power plant are currently available. A gas-fired plant model is under preparation. The release of the pollutants into the air is followed by their dispersal in the environment. The dispersion in the Air Subroutine uses the Environmental Protection Agency's model, Industrial Source Complex-Long Term. Additional dispersion models (Industrial Source Complex - Short Term and Cooling Tower Drift) are being implemented for future AERAM versions. The Expose Subroutine uses the ambient concentrations to compute population exposures for the pollutants of concern. The exposures are used with corresponding dose-response model in the Risk Subroutine to estimate both the total population risk and individual risk. The risk for the dispersion receptor-population centroid for the maximum concentration is also calculated for regulatory-population purposes. In addition, automated interfaces with AirTox (an air risk decision model) have been implemented to extend AERAM's steady-state single solution to the decision-under-uncertainty domain. AERAM was used for public health risks, the investment decision for additional pollution control systems based on health risk reductions, and the economics of fuel vs. health risk tradeoffs. AERAM provides that state-of-the-art capability for evaluating the public health impact airborne toxic substances in response to regulations and public concern

  11. A normative model for assessing competitive strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ungerer, Gerard David

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The hyper-competitive nature of e-business has raised the need for a generic way to appraise the merit of a developed business strategy. Although progress has been made in the domain of strategy evaluation, the established literature differs over the ‘tests’ that a strategy must pass to be considered well-constructed. This paper therefore investigates the existing strategy-evaluation literature to propose a more integrated and comprehensive normative strategic assessment that can be used to evaluate and refine a business’ s competitive strategy , adding to its robustness and survivability.

  12. Sustainability Assessment Model in Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina; Nor, Nik Hisyamudin Muhd; Omar, Badrul

    2017-08-01

    Faster and more efficient development of innovative and sustainable products has become the focus for manufacturing companies in order to remain competitive in today’s technologically driven world. Design concept evaluation which is the end of conceptual design is one of the most critical decision points. It relates to the final success of product development, because poor criteria assessment in design concept evaluation can rarely compensated at the later stages. Furthermore, consumers, investors, shareholders and even competitors are basing their decisions on what to buy or invest in, from whom, and also on what company report, and sustainability is one of a critical component. In this research, a new methodology of sustainability assessment in product development for Malaysian industry has been developed using integration of green project management, new scale of “Weighting criteria” and Rough-Grey Analysis. This method will help design engineers to improve the effectiveness and objectivity of the sustainable design concept evaluation, enable them to make better-informed decisions before finalising their choice and consequently create value to the company or industry. The new framework is expected to provide an alternative to existing methods.

  13. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This User's Guide provides instruction in the setup and operation of the equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Instructions are also given on how to load the magnetic disks and access the interactive part of the program. Two other companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. Reactor Accident Assessment Methods (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 2) describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  14. ITER plasma safety interface models and assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uckan, N.A.; Bartels, H-W.; Honda, T.; Amano, T.; Boucher, D.; Post, D.; Wesley, J.

    1996-01-01

    Physics models and requirements to be used as a basis for safety analysis studies are developed and physics results motivated by safety considerations are presented for the ITER design. Physics specifications are provided for enveloping plasma dynamic events for Category I (operational event), Category II (likely event), and Category III (unlikely event). A safety analysis code SAFALY has been developed to investigate plasma anomaly events. The plasma response to ex-vessel component failure and machine response to plasma transients are considered

  15. Survivability Assessment: Modeling A Recovery Process

    OpenAIRE

    Paputungan, Irving Vitra; Abdullah, Azween

    2009-01-01

    Survivability is the ability of a system to continue operating, in a timely manner, in the presence ofattacks, failures, or accidents. Recovery in survivability is a process of a system to heal or recover from damageas early as possible to fulfill its mission as condition permit. In this paper, we show a preliminary recoverymodel to enhance the system survivability. The model focuses on how we preserve the system and resumes itscritical service under attacks as soon as possible.Keywords: surv...

  16. Enterprise Cloud Adoption - Cloud Maturity Assessment Model

    OpenAIRE

    Conway, Gerry; Doherty, Eileen; Carcary, Marian; Crowley, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    The introduction and use of cloud computing by an organization has the promise of significant benefits that include reduced costs, improved services, and a pay-per-use model. Organizations that successfully harness these benefits will potentially have a distinct competitive edge, due to their increased agility and flexibility to rapidly respond to an ever changing and complex business environment. However, as cloud technology is a relatively new ph...

  17. Assessing testamentary and decision-making capacity: Approaches and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Kelly; Rosenfeld, Tuly

    2015-09-01

    The need for better and more accurate assessments of testamentary and decision-making capacity grows as Australian society ages and incidences of mentally disabling conditions increase. Capacity is a legal determination, but one on which medical opinion is increasingly being sought. The difficulties inherent within capacity assessments are exacerbated by the ad hoc approaches adopted by legal and medical professionals based on individual knowledge and skill, as well as the numerous assessment paradigms that exist. This can negatively affect the quality of assessments, and results in confusion as to the best way to assess capacity. This article begins by assessing the nature of capacity. The most common general assessment models used in Australia are then discussed, as are the practical challenges associated with capacity assessment. The article concludes by suggesting a way forward to satisfactorily assess legal capacity given the significant ramifications of getting it wrong.

  18. Performability assessment by model checking of Markov reward models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baier, Christel; Cloth, L.; Haverkort, Boudewijn R.H.M.; Hermanns, H.; Katoen, Joost P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes efficient procedures for model checking Markov reward models, that allow us to evaluate, among others, the performability of computer-communication systems. We present the logic CSRL (Continuous Stochastic Reward Logic) to specify performability measures. It provides flexibility

  19. Model-Based Approaches for Teaching and Practicing Personality Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blais, Mark A; Hopwood, Christopher J

    2017-01-01

    Psychological assessment is a complex professional skill. Competence in assessment requires an extensive knowledge of personality, neuropsychology, social behavior, and psychopathology, a background in psychometrics, familiarity with a range of multimethod tools, cognitive flexibility, skepticism, and interpersonal sensitivity. This complexity makes assessment a challenge to teach and learn, particularly as the investment of resources and time in assessment has waned in psychological training programs over the last few decades. In this article, we describe 3 conceptual models that can assist teaching and learning psychological assessments. The transtheoretical model of personality provides a personality systems-based framework for understanding how multimethod assessment data relate to major personality systems and can be combined to describe and explain complex human behavior. The quantitative psychopathology-personality trait model is an empirical model based on the hierarchical organization of individual differences. Application of this model can help students understand diagnostic comorbidity and symptom heterogeneity, focus on more meaningful high-order domains, and identify the most effective assessment tools for addressing a given question. The interpersonal situation model is rooted in interpersonal theory and can help students connect test data to here-and-now interactions with patients. We conclude by demonstrating the utility of these models using a case example.

  20. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  1. Modelling fog in probabilistic consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Underwood, B.Y.

    1993-02-01

    Earlier work examined the potential influence of foggy weather conditions on the probabilistic assessment of the consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material to the atmosphere (PCA), in particular the impact of a fraction of the released aerosol becoming incorporated into droplets. A major uncertainty emerging from the initial scoping study concerned estimation of the fraction of the released material that would be taken up into droplets. An objective is to construct a method for handling in a PCA context the effect of fog on deposition, basing the method on the experience gained from prior investigations. There are two aspects to explicitly including the effect of fog in PCA: estimating the probability of occurrence of various types of foggy condition and calculating the impact on the conventional end-points of consequence assessment. For the first, a brief outline is given of the use of meteorological data by PCA computer codes, followed by a discussion of some routinely-recorded meteorological parameters that are pertinent to fog, such as the presentweather code and horizontal visibility. Four stylized scenarios are defined to cover a wide range of situations in which particle growth by uptake of water may have an important impact on deposition. A description is then given of the way in which routine meteorological data could be used to flag the presence of each of these conditions in the meteorological data file used by the PCA code. The approach developed to calculate the impact on deposition is pitched at a level of complexity appropriate to the PCA context and reflects the physical constraints of the system and accounts for the specific characteristics of the released aerosol. (Author)

  2. A new assessment model and tool for pediatric nurse practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, C

    1992-01-01

    This article presents a comprehensive assessment model for pediatric nurse practitioner (PNP) practice that integrates familiar elements of the classical medical history, Gordon's Functional Health Patterns, and developmental fields into one system. This model drives the diagnostic reasoning process toward consideration of a broad range of disease, daily living (nursing diagnosis), and developmental diagnoses, which represents PNP practice better than the medical model does.

  3. Uncertainty Assessment in Urban Storm Water Drainage Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren

    The object of this paper is to make an overall description of the author's PhD study, concerning uncertainties in numerical urban storm water drainage models. Initially an uncertainty localization and assessment of model inputs and parameters as well as uncertainties caused by different model...

  4. The importance of trajectory modelling in accident consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.A.; Williams, J.A.; Hill, M.D.

    1988-01-01

    Most atmospheric dispersion models used at present or probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are linear: they take account of the wind speed but not the direction after the first hour. Therefore, the trajectory model is a more realistic description of the cloud's behaviour. However, the extra complexity means that the computing costs increase. This is an important factor for the MARIA code which is intended to be run on computers of varying power. The numbers of early effects predicted by a linear model and a trajectory model in a probabilistic risk assessment were compared to see which model should be preferred. The trajectory model predicted about 25% fewer expected early deaths and 30% more people evacuated than the linear model. However, the trajectory model took about ten times longer to calculate its results. The choice between the two models may depend on the speed of the computer available

  5. Road Assessment Model and Pilot Application in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiejun Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment of roads is an effective approach for road agencies to determine safety improvement investments. It can increases the cost-effective returns in crash and injury reductions. To get a powerful Chinese risk assessment model, Research Institute of Highway (RIOH is developing China Road Assessment Programme (ChinaRAP model to show the traffic crashes in China in partnership with International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP. The ChinaRAP model is based upon RIOH’s achievements and iRAP models. This paper documents part of ChinaRAP’s research work, mainly including the RIOH model and its pilot application in a province in China.

  6. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  7. Computational model for the assessment of oil spill damages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seip, K L; Heiberg, A B; Brekke, K A

    1985-06-01

    A description is given of the method and the required data of a model for calculating oil spill damages. Eleven damage attributes are defined: shorelength contaminated, shore restitution time, birds dead, restitution time for three groups of birds, open sea damages-two types, damages to recreation, economy and fisheries. The model has been applied in several cases of oil pollution assessments: in an examination of alternative models for the organization of oil spill combat in Norway, in the assessment of the damages coused by a blowout at Tromsoeflaket and in assessing a possible increase in oil spill preparedness for Svalbard. 56 references.

  8. Mathematical modeling in biology: A critical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buiatti, M. [Florence, Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Biologia Animale e Genetica

    1998-01-01

    The molecular revolution and the development of biology-derived industry have led in the last fifty years to an unprecedented `lead forward` of life sciences in terms of experimental data. Less success has been achieved in the organisation of such data and in the consequent development of adequate explanatory and predictive theories and models. After a brief historical excursus inborn difficulties of mathematisation of biological objects and processes derived from the complex dynamics of life are discussed along with the logical tools (simplifications, choice of observation points etc.) used to overcome them. `Autistic`, monodisciplinary attitudes towards biological modeling of mathematicians, physicists, biologists aimed in each case at the use of the tools of other disciplines to solve `selfish` problems are also taken into account and a warning against derived dangers (reification of mono disciplinary metaphors, lack of falsification etc.) is given. Finally `top.down` (deductive) and `bottom up` (inductive) heuristic interactive approaches to mathematisation are critically discussed with the help of serie of examples.

  9. Mathematical modeling in biology: A critical assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buiatti, M.

    1998-01-01

    The molecular revolution and the development of biology-derived industry have led in the last fifty years to an unprecedented 'lead forward' of life sciences in terms of experimental data. Less success has been achieved in the organisation of such data and in the consequent development of adequate explanatory and predictive theories and models. After a brief historical excursus inborn difficulties of mathematisation of biological objects and processes derived from the complex dynamics of life are discussed along with the logical tools (simplifications, choice of observation points etc.) used to overcome them. 'Autistic', monodisciplinary attitudes towards biological modeling of mathematicians, physicists, biologists aimed in each case at the use of the tools of other disciplines to solve 'selfish' problems are also taken into account and a warning against derived dangers (reification of mono disciplinary metaphors, lack of falsification etc.) is given. Finally 'top.down' (deductive) and 'bottom up' (inductive) heuristic interactive approaches to mathematisation are critically discussed with the help of serie of examples

  10. Assessing work disability for social security benefits: international models for the direct assessment of work capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Ben Baumberg; Garthwaite, Kayleigh; Warren, Jon; Bambra, Clare

    2017-08-25

    It has been argued that social security disability assessments should directly assess claimants' work capacity, rather than relying on proxies such as on functioning. However, there is little academic discussion of how such assessments could be conducted. The article presents an account of different models of direct disability assessments based on case studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Norway, the United States of America, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, utilising over 150 documents and 40 expert interviews. Three models of direct work disability assessments can be observed: (i) structured assessment, which measures the functional demands of jobs across the national economy and compares these to claimants' functional capacities; (ii) demonstrated assessment, which looks at claimants' actual experiences in the labour market and infers a lack of work capacity from the failure of a concerned rehabilitation attempt; and (iii) expert assessment, based on the judgement of skilled professionals. Direct disability assessment within social security is not just theoretically desirable, but can be implemented in practice. We have shown that there are three distinct ways that this can be done, each with different strengths and weaknesses. Further research is needed to clarify the costs, validity/legitimacy, and consequences of these different models. Implications for rehabilitation It has recently been argued that social security disability assessments should directly assess work capacity rather than simply assessing functioning - but we have no understanding about how this can be done in practice. Based on case studies of nine countries, we show that direct disability assessment can be implemented, and argue that there are three different ways of doing it. These are "demonstrated assessment" (using claimants' experiences in the labour market), "structured assessment" (matching functional requirements to workplace demands), and "expert assessment" (the

  11. Pipeline modeling and assessment in unstable slopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caceres, Carlos Nieves [Oleoducto Central S.A., Bogota, Cundinamarca (Colombia); Ordonez, Mauricio Pereira [SOLSIN S.A.S, Bogota, Cundinamarca (Colombia)

    2010-07-01

    The OCENSA pipeline system is vulnerable to geotechnical problems such as faults, landslides or creeping slopes, which are well-known in the Andes Mountains and tropical countries like Colombia. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the pipe behaviour during the soil displacements of slow landslides. Three different cases of analysis are examined, according to site characteristics. The process starts with a simplified analytical model and develops into 3D finite element numerical simulations applied to the on-site geometry of soil and pipe. Case 1 should be used when the unstable site is subject to landslides impacting significant lengths of pipeline, pipeline is straight, and landslide is simple from the geotechnical perspective. Case 2 should be used when pipeline is straight and landslide is complex (creeping slopes and non-conventional stabilization solutions). Case 3 should be used if the pipeline presents vertical or horizontal bends.

  12. Caracterização epidemiológica e fatores de risco associados à infecção por Brucella ovis em ovinos deslanados do semiárido paraibano Epidemiological characterization and risk factors associated with Brucella ovis infection in sheep in the Brazilian semiarid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrine A. Santos

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho teve como objetivo determinar a prevalência de rebanhos ovinos positivos (focos e de animais soropositivos para Brucella ovis na mesorregião do Sertão, Estado da Paraíba, Nordeste do Brasil, bem como identificar fatores de risco. Foram colhidas amostras de sangue de 1.134 animais procedentes de 103 rebanhos em 17 municípios. Para o diagnóstico sorológico da infecção por B. ovis foi utilizado o teste de imunodifusão em gel de ágar (IDGA. Um rebanho foi considerado positivo quando apresentou pelo menos um animal soropositivo. Das 103 propriedades utilizadas 21 (20,39% apresentaram pelo menos um animal soropositivo e dos 1.134 animais, 59 (5,20% foram soropositivos. Realizar higiene nas instalações com periodicidade anual (odds ratio = 7,13; IC 95% = 1,56-32,47; p=0,011 e aquisição de animais (odds ratio = 6,06; IC 95% = 1,39-26,48; p=0,017 foram identificados como fatores de risco. Com base na análise de fatores de risco, recomenda-se a realização de diagnóstico da infecção por B. ovis previamente à aquisição de animais e realização periódica de higienização das instalações.The aim of this investigation was to determine the seroprevalence of Brucella ovis in sheep flocks and individual sheep in the Sertão mesorregion, Paraíba state, Northeastern Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors. Blood samples were collected from 1,134 sheep from 103 flocks in 17 counties. For the serological diagnosis of B. ovis infection the agar gel immunodiffusion test (AGID was carried out. A flock was considered positive when there was at least one seropositive animal. Of the 103 flocks used, 21 (20.39% presented at least one seropositive sheep, and of the 1,134 sheep examined 59 (5.20% seropositive animals were diagnosed. Cleaning of facilities (odds ratio = 7.13; 95% CI=1.56-32.47; p=0.011 and purchase of animals (odds ratio = 6.06; 95% CI=1.39-26.48; p=0.017 were identified as risk factors. Based on the risk factor

  13. A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, Michael

    2004-01-01

    The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

  14. Conceptual adsorption models and open issues pertaining to performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serne, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    Recently several articles have been published that question the appropriateness of the distribution coefficient, Rd, concept to quantify radionuclide migration. Several distinct issues surrounding the modeling of nuclide retardation. The first section defines adsorption terminology and discusses various adsorption processes. The next section describes five commonly used adsorption conceptual models, specifically emphasizing what attributes that affect adsorption are explicitly accommodated in each model. I also review efforts to incorporate each adsorption model into performance assessment transport computer codes. The five adsorption conceptual models are (1) the constant Rd model, (2) the parametric Rd model, (3) isotherm adsorption models, (4) mass action adsorption models, and (5) surface-complexation with electrostatics models. The final section discusses the adequacy of the distribution ratio concept, the adequacy of transport calculations that rely on constant retardation factors and the status of incorporating sophisticated adsorption models into transport codes. 86 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  15. Conceptual adsorption models and open issues pertaining to performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serne, R.J.

    1991-10-01

    Recently several articles have been published that question the appropriateness of the distribution coefficient, Rd, concept to quantify radionuclide migration. Several distinct issues are raised by various critics. In this paper I provide some perspective on issues surrounding the modeling of nuclide retardation. The first section defines adsorption terminology and discusses various adsorption processes. The next section describes five commonly used adsorption conceptual models, specifically emphasizing what attributes that affect adsorption are explicitly accommodated in each model. I also review efforts to incorporate each adsorption model into performance assessment transport computer codes. The five adsorption conceptual models are (1) the constant Rd model, (2) the parametric Rd model, (3) isotherm adsorption models, (4) mass-action adsorption models, and (5) surface-complexation with electrostatics models. The final section discusses the adequacy of the distribution ratio concept, the adequacy of transport calculations that rely on constant retardation factors and the status of incorporating sophisticated adsorption models into transport codes

  16. Indoor Air Quality Building Education and Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Indoor Air Quality Building Education and Assessment Model (I-BEAM), released in 2002, is a guidance tool designed for use by building professionals and others interested in indoor air quality in commercial buildings.

  17. Indoor Air Quality Building Education and Assessment Model Forms

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Indoor Air Quality Building Education and Assessment Model (I-BEAM) is a guidance tool designed for use by building professionals and others interested in indoor air quality in commercial buildings.

  18. Assessment and development of implementation models of health ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Assessment and development of implementation models of health-related ... The Contribution of Civil Society Organizations in Achieving Health for All ... Health Information for Maternal and Child Health Planning in Urban Bangladesh.

  19. Route Assessment for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixia Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated route assessment approach based on cloud model is proposed in this paper, where various sources of uncertainties are well kept and modeled by cloud theory. Firstly, a systemic criteria framework incorporating models for scoring subcriteria is developed. Then, the cloud model is introduced to represent linguistic variables, and survivability probability histogram of each route is converted into normal clouds by cloud transformation, enabling both randomness and fuzziness in the assessment environment to be managed simultaneously. Finally, a new way to measure the similarity between two normal clouds satisfying reflexivity, symmetry, transitivity, and overlapping is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed route assessment approach outperforms fuzzy logic based assessment approach with regard to feasibility, reliability, and consistency with human thinking.

  20. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  2. ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: A NEW MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Diah Hari Suryaningrum

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims to propose a new model in assessing individual performance on information technology adoption. The new model to assess individual performance was derived from two different theories: decomposed theory of planned behavior and task-technology fit theory. Although many researchers have tried to expand these theories, some of their efforts might lack of theoretical assumptions. To overcome this problem and enhance the coherence of the integration, I used a theory from social scien...

  3. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up cha...

  4. Semantic modeling of portfolio assessment in e-learning environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucila Romero

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In learning environment, portfolio is used as a tool to keep track of learner’s progress. Particularly, when it comes to e-learning, continuous assessment allows greater customization and efficiency in learning process and prevents students lost interest in their study. Also, each student has his own characteristics and learning skills that must be taken into account in order to keep learner`s interest. So, personalized monitoring is the key to guarantee the success of technology-based education. In this context, portfolio assessment emerge as the solution because is an easy way to allow teacher organize and personalize assessment according to students characteristic and need. A portfolio assessment can contain various types of assessment like formative assessment, summative assessment, hetero or self-assessment and use different instruments like multiple choice questions, conceptual maps, and essay among others. So, a portfolio assessment represents a compilation of all assessments must be solved by a student in a course, it documents progress and set targets. In previous work, it has been proposed a conceptual framework that consist of an ontology network named AOnet which is a semantic tool conceptualizing different types of assessments. Continuing that work, this paper presents a proposal to implement portfolios assessment in e-learning environments. The proposal consists of a semantic model that describes key components and relations of this domain to set the bases to develop a tool to generate, manage and perform portfolios assessment.

  5. Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patt, A.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Berkhout, F.G.H.; Aaheim, A.; Hof, A.F.; Isaac, M.; Mechler, R.

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We

  6. Performance and Cognitive Assessment in 3-D Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahrer, Nolan E.; Ernst, Jeremy V.; Branoff, Theodore J.; Clark, Aaron C.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate identifiable differences between performance and cognitive assessment scores in a 3-D modeling unit of an engineering drafting course curriculum. The study aimed to provide further investigation of the need of skill-based assessments in engineering/technical graphics courses to potentially increase…

  7. Advanced REACH tool: A Bayesian model for occupational exposure assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McNally, K.; Warren, N.; Fransman, W.; Entink, R.K.; Schinkel, J.; Van Tongeren, M.; Cherrie, J.W.; Kromhout, H.; Schneider, T.; Tielemans, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian model for the assessment of inhalation exposures in an occupational setting; the methodology underpins a freely available web-based application for exposure assessment, the Advanced REACH Tool (ART). The ART is a higher tier exposure tool that combines disparate

  8. Non-overlapping distributions of feral sheep (Ovis aries) and Stout Iguanas (Cyclura pinguis) on Guana Island, British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skipper, Ben R.; Grisham, Blake A.; Kalyvaki, Maria; McGaughey, Kathleen; Mougey, Krista; Navarrete, Laura; Rondeau, Renée; Boal, Clint W.; Perry, Gad

    2013-01-01

    Stout Iguanas (Cyclura pinguis) remain one of the most critically endangered reptiles in the world. Factors contributing to that status include habitat loss, predation by introduced species, and competition with introduced herbivores. On Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, the presence of feral sheep (Ovis aries) has been a hypothesized detriment to iguanas. Using motion sensitive cameras, we documented the distribution of feral sheep on Guana Island in 2010. We also quantified the impact of feral sheep on ground vegetation by comparing plant abundance at longterm sheep exclosures and areas where sheep were absent to areas where sheep were present. Finally, we compared sheep distribution to iguana distribution on the island. The co-occurrence of sheep and Stout Iguanas was less than expected, indicating possible competition. Although we detected no difference in vegetative cover between areas where sheep were present and absent, the long-term exclosures showed that the exclusion of sheep allowed the abundance of many plant species to increase. Our data support the hypothesis that feral sheep are altering the abundance of ground-level vegetation and limiting iguana distribution on the island.

  9. Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) sinus tumors are associated with coinfections by potentially pathogenic bacteria in the upper respiratory tract.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Karen A; Rouse, Natalie M; Huyvaert, Kathryn P; Griffin, Karen A; Killion, Halcyon J; Jennings-Gaines, Jessica; Edwards, William H; Quackenbush, Sandra L; Miller, Michael W

    2015-01-01

    Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) sinus tumors are hyperplastic to neoplastic, predominantly stromal masses of the paranasal sinuses that expand the sinus lining and obstruct the sinus cavities. Obstruction of the sinus cavities and disruption of normal sinus lining anatomy may interfere with clearance of bacterial pathogens from the upper respiratory tract. To examine this possibility, we explored whether the presence of sinus tumor features (tumor score) affected the likelihood of detecting potentially pathogenic bacteria from upper respiratory sinus lining tissues in bighorn sheep. We developed or used existing PCR assays for the detection of leukotoxigenic Pasteurellaceae and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae in sinus lining tissues collected from 97 bighorn sheep in Colorado, US from 2009 to 2012. With the use of logistic regression analyses we found that tumor score was a good predictor of the probability of detecting potentially pathogenic bacteria in sinus lining tissues; we were more likely to detect potentially pathogenic bacteria from samples with high tumor scores. These findings add to our understanding of possible mechanisms for the maintenance and shedding of bacterial agents from the upper respiratory tracts of bighorn sheep.

  10. Costs and benefits of group living with disease: a case study of pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manlove, Kezia R; Cassirer, E Frances; Cross, Paul C; Plowright, Raina K; Hudson, Peter J

    2014-12-22

    Group living facilitates pathogen transmission among social hosts, yet temporally stable host social organizations can actually limit transmission of some pathogens. When there are few between-subpopulation contacts for the duration of a disease event, transmission becomes localized to subpopulations. The number of per capita infectious contacts approaches the subpopulation size as pathogen infectiousness increases. Here, we illustrate that this is the case during epidemics of highly infectious pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis). We classified individually marked bighorn ewes into disjoint seasonal subpopulations, and decomposed the variance in lamb survival to weaning into components associated with individual ewes, subpopulations, populations and years. During epidemics, lamb survival varied substantially more between ewe-subpopulations than across populations or years, suggesting localized pathogen transmission. This pattern of lamb survival was not observed during years when disease was absent. Additionally, group sizes in ewe-subpopulations were independent of population size, but the number of ewe-subpopulations increased with population size. Consequently, although one might reasonably assume that force of infection for this highly communicable disease scales with population size, in fact, host social behaviour modulates transmission such that disease is frequency-dependent within populations, and some groups remain protected during epidemic events. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  11. Expansion of the known distribution of Asiatic mouflon (Ovis orientalis) in the Late Pleistocene of the Southern Levant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeomans, Lisa; Martin, Louise; Richter, Tobias

    2017-08-01

    Wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) bones recovered from the Natufian site of Shubayqa 1 demonstrate a wider distribution of mouflon in the Late Pleistocene of the Southern Levant than previously known. Early Epipalaeolithic sites are common in the limestone steppe region of eastern Jordan but have yielded only a handful of caprine bones that cannot be identified to species level and few faunal remains from excavated Late Epipalaeolithic sites have been reported. Analysis of animal bone from Shubayqa 1 suggests a significant population of wild sheep could be found concentrated in the basalt desert environment of eastern Jordan during the Late Pleistocene, especially where higher rainfall over the Jebel Druze provided more water. A population of wild sheep was still present in the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A when the nearby site of Shubayqa 6 was occupied. Hunting of diverse, locally available resources including wild sheep at the end of the Pleistocene illustrates the flexible and adaptive exploitation strategies that hunter-forager groups engaged in. This provides further evidence to the increasing body of data showing the creative and opportunistic approach of terminal Pleistocene groups allowing continued occupation even in more marginal environments in a period of environmental change.

  12. Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in free-living European mouflon (Ovis orientalis musimon hunted in central Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heddergott Mike

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite increasing consumption of mouflon (Ovis orientalis musimon meat in Germany, there is currently no surveillance of Toxoplasma gondii infection in populations of these animals and generally little knowledge about the prevalence of this protozoan in German wild ungulates. Between 2011 and 2015, we collected 138 blood samples from a free-living mouflon population in central German and tested sera for the presence of T. gondii antibodies using a modified agglutination test (MAT, cut-off 1:20. Antibodies were detected in 31 of the 138 samples (22.46%. There was a significant difference in seroprevalence between the different age classes, with antibodies to T. gondii more frequent in adults. In contrast, there was no significant difference in seroprevalence depending on sex and year of sample collection. Game meat is frequently consumed as raw or undercooked meat and may therefore represent a potential source of human infection with T. gondii.

  13. Helminthes and Coccidia Infection of Wild Sheep (Ovis Ammon Orintalis in Kabodan Island of National Park of Urmia Lake, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habib Khoshvaghti

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Forty-one wild sheep (Ovis ammon orintalis from Kabodan Island of National Park of UrmiaLake (North-West of Iran, were examined during a period of six months from October 2002 toMarch 2003, for helminthes and coccidian infection. The numbers of oocyst and eggs per gram offaeces (OPG & EPG were determined by the centrifuge flotation technique using saturated sugarsolution. The rate of infection for Strongylid form, Marshalagia, Trichuris eggs, and lung wormlarvae were 8 (19.5%, 12 (29.5%, 17 (41.5% and 14 (34.1%, respectively. Thirty-three(80.48% of the examined wild animals were infected to one or more Eimeria species including E.parva, E. ahsata, E. ovinoidalis and E. faurei. This study suggested that the rate of parasiticinfection in wild sheep were very low but it would seem that in unsuitable condition such asdrought and starvation, parasitic infection can be cause a serious problem in wild sheep population.

  14. Costs and benefits of group living with disease: a case study of pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manlove, Kezia R.; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    Group living facilitates pathogen transmission among social hosts, yet temporally stable host social organizations can actually limit transmission of some pathogens. When there are few between-subpopulation contacts for the duration of a disease event, transmission becomes localized to subpopulations. The number of per capita infectious contacts approaches the subpopulation size as pathogen infectiousness increases. Here, we illustrate that this is the case during epidemics of highly infectious pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis). We classified individually marked bighorn ewes into disjoint seasonal subpopulations, and decomposed the variance in lamb survival to weaning into components associated with individual ewes, subpopulations, populations and years. During epidemics, lamb survival varied substantially more between ewe-subpopulations than across populations or years, suggesting localized pathogen transmission. This pattern of lamb survival was not observed during years when disease was absent. Additionally, group sizes in ewe-subpopulations were independent of population size, but the number of ewe-subpopulations increased with population size. Consequently, although one might reasonably assume that force of infection for this highly communicable disease scales with population size, in fact, host social behaviour modulates transmission such that disease is frequency-dependent within populations, and some groups remain protected during epidemic events.

  15. Uranium and Associated Heavy Metals in Ovis aries in a Mining Impacted Area in Northwestern New Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel-Nakamura, Christine; Robbins, Wendie A; Hodge, Felicia S

    2017-07-28

    The objective of this study was to determine uranium (U) and other heavy metal (HM) concentrations (As, Cd, Pb, Mo, and Se) in tissue samples collected from sheep ( Ovis aries ), the primary meat staple on the Navajo reservation in northwestern New Mexico. The study setting was a prime target of U mining, where more than 1100 unreclaimed abandoned U mines and structures remain. The forage and water sources for the sheep in this study were located within 3.2 km of abandoned U mines and structures. Tissue samples from sheep ( n = 3), their local forage grasses ( n = 24), soil ( n = 24), and drinking water ( n = 14) sources were collected. The samples were analyzed using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry. Results: In general, HMs concentrated more in the roots of forage compared to the above ground parts. The sheep forage samples fell below the National Research Council maximum tolerable concentration (5 mg/kg). The bioaccumulation factor ratio was >1 in several forage samples, ranging from 1.12 to 16.86 for Mo, Cd, and Se. The study findings showed that the concentrations of HMs were greatest in the liver and kidneys. Of the calculated human intake, Se Reference Dietary Intake and Mo Recommended Dietary Allowance were exceeded, but the tolerable upper limits for both were not exceeded. Food intake recommendations informed by research are needed for individuals especially those that may be more sensitive to HMs. Further study with larger sample sizes is needed to explore other impacted communities across the reservation.

  16. Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

    2014-05-01

    Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem

  17. The Effect of Computer Models as Formative Assessment on Student Understanding of the Nature of Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Mihwa; Liu, Xiufeng; Smith, Erica; Waight, Noemi

    2017-01-01

    This study reports the effect of computer models as formative assessment on high school students' understanding of the nature of models. Nine high school teachers integrated computer models and associated formative assessments into their yearlong high school chemistry course. A pre-test and post-test of students' understanding of the nature of…

  18. Users guide to REGIONAL-1: a regional assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, W.E.; Eadie, W.J.; Powell, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    A guide was prepared to allow a user to run the PNL long-range transport model, REGIONAL 1. REGIONAL 1 is a computer model set up to run atmospheric assessments on a regional basis. The model has the capability of being run in three modes for a single time period. The three modes are: (1) no deposition, (2) dry deposition, (3) wet and dry deposition. The guide provides the physical and mathematical basis used in the model for calculating transport, diffusion, and deposition for all three modes. Also the guide includes a program listing with an explanation of the listings and an example in the form of a short-term assessment for 48 hours. The purpose of the example is to allow a person who has past experience with programming and meteorology to operate the assessment model and compare his results with the guide results. This comparison will assure the user that the program is operating in a proper fashion

  19. The role of computer modelling in participatory integrated assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siebenhuener, Bernd; Barth, Volker

    2005-01-01

    In a number of recent research projects, computer models have been included in participatory procedures to assess global environmental change. The intention was to support knowledge production and to help the involved non-scientists to develop a deeper understanding of the interactions between natural and social systems. This paper analyses the experiences made in three projects with the use of computer models from a participatory and a risk management perspective. Our cross-cutting analysis of the objectives, the employed project designs and moderation schemes and the observed learning processes in participatory processes with model use shows that models play a mixed role in informing participants and stimulating discussions. However, no deeper reflection on values and belief systems could be achieved. In terms of the risk management phases, computer models serve best the purposes of problem definition and option assessment within participatory integrated assessment (PIA) processes

  20. Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panitz, H.J.

    1989-11-01

    An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de

  1. Specialty Payment Model Opportunities and Assessment: Oncology Model Design Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huckfeldt, Peter J; Chan, Chris; Hirshman, Samuel; Kofner, Aaron; Liu, Jodi L; Mulcahy, Andrew W; Popescu, Ioana; Stevens, Clare; Timbie, Justin W; Hussey, Peter S

    2015-07-15

    This article describes research related to the design of a payment model for specialty oncology services for possible testing by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Cancer is a common and costly condition. Episode-based payment, which aims to create incentives for high-quality, low-cost care, has been identified as a promising alternative payment model for oncology care. Episode-based payment systems can provide flexibility to health care providers to select among the most effective and efficient treatment alternatives, including activities that are not currently reimbursed under Medicare payment policies. However, the model design also needs to ensure that high-quality care is delivered and that beneficial treatments are not withheld from patients. CMS asked MITRE and RAND to conduct analyses to inform design decisions related to an episode-based oncology model for Medicare beneficiaries undergoing chemotherapy treatment for cancer. In particular, this study focuses on analyses of Medicare claims data related to the definition of the initiation of an episode of chemotherapy, patterns of spending during and surrounding episodes of chemotherapy, and attribution of episodes of chemotherapy to physician practices. We found that the time between the primary cancer diagnosis and chemotherapy initiation varied widely across patients, ranging from one day to over seven years, with a median of 2.4 months. The average level of total monthly payments varied considerably across cancers, with the highest spending peak of $9,972 for lymphoma, and peaks of $3,109 for breast cancer and $2,135 for prostate cancer.

  2. A parsimonious dynamic model for river water quality assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2010-01-01

    Water quality modelling is of crucial importance for the assessment of physical, chemical, and biological changes in water bodies. Mathematical approaches to water modelling have become more prevalent over recent years. Different model types ranging from detailed physical models to simplified conceptual models are available. Actually, a possible middle ground between detailed and simplified models may be parsimonious models that represent the simplest approach that fits the application. The appropriate modelling approach depends on the research goal as well as on data available for correct model application. When there is inadequate data, it is mandatory to focus on a simple river water quality model rather than detailed ones. The study presents a parsimonious river water quality model to evaluate the propagation of pollutants in natural rivers. The model is made up of two sub-models: a quantity one and a quality one. The model employs a river schematisation that considers different stretches according to the geometric characteristics and to the gradient of the river bed. Each stretch is represented with a conceptual model of a series of linear channels and reservoirs. The channels determine the delay in the pollution wave and the reservoirs cause its dispersion. To assess the river water quality, the model employs four state variables: DO, BOD, NH(4), and NO. The model was applied to the Savena River (Italy), which is the focus of a European-financed project in which quantity and quality data were gathered. A sensitivity analysis of the model output to the model input or parameters was done based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. The results demonstrate the suitability of such a model as a tool for river water quality management.

  3. A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

    1998-01-01

    This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

  4. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  5. EASETECH – A LCA model for assessment of environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Baumeister, Hubert; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    EASETECH is a new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies developed in collaboration between DTU Environment and DTU Compute. EASETECH is based on experience gained in the field of waste management modelling over the last decade and applies the same concepts to systems...

  6. Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The article provides an overview of goodness-of-fit assessment methods for item response theory (IRT) models. It is now possible to obtain accurate "p"-values of the overall fit of the model if bivariate information statistics are used. Several alternative approaches are described. As the validity of inferences drawn on the fitted model…

  7. Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray D; Kidholm, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models...

  8. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  9. Application of the cognitive therapy model to initial crisis assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Patricia; Palmer, Christine

    2003-03-01

    This article provides a background to the development of cognitive therapy and cognitive therapeutic skills with a specific focus on the treatment of a depressive episode. It discusses the utility of cognitive therapeutic strategies to the model of crisis theory and initial crisis assessment currently used by the Community Assessment & Treatment Team of Waitemata District Health Board on the North Shore of Auckland, New Zealand. A brief background to cognitive therapy is provided, followed by a comprehensive example of the use of the Socratic questioning method in guiding collaborative assessment and treatment of suicidality by nurses during the initial crisis assessment.

  10. Assessment of Teacher Perceived Skill in Classroom Assessment Practices Using IRT Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koloi-Keaikitse, Setlhomo

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess teacher perceived skill in classroom assessment practices. Data were collected from a sample of (N = 691) teachers selected from government primary, junior secondary, and senior secondary schools in Botswana. Item response theory models were used to identify teacher response on items that measured their…

  11. Model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahlund, Fredrik; Zetterstroem Evins, Lena; Lindgren, Maria

    2010-12-01

    This document is the model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Site. In the report, the quality assurance (QA) measures conducted for assessment codes are presented together with the chosen QA methodology. In the safety assessment project SR-Site, a large number of numerical models are used to analyse the system and to show compliance. In order to better understand how the different models interact and how information are transferred between the different models Assessment Model Flowcharts, AMFs, are used. From these, different modelling tasks can be identify and the computer codes used. As a large number of computer codes are used in the assessment the complexity of these differs to a large extent, some of the codes are commercial while others are developed especially for the assessment at hand. QA requirements must on the one hand take this diversity into account and on the other hand be well defined. In the methodology section of the report the following requirements are defined for all codes: - It must be demonstrated that the code is suitable for its purpose. - It must be demonstrated that the code has been properly used. - It must be demonstrated that the code development process has followed appropriate procedures and that the code produces accurate results. - It must be described how data are transferred between the different computational tasks. Although the requirements are identical for all codes in the assessment, the measures used to show that the requirements are fulfilled will be different for different types of codes (for instance due to the fact that for some software the source-code is not available for review). Subsequent to the methodology section, each assessment code is presented together with a discussion on how the requirements are met

  12. Model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vahlund, Fredrik; Zetterstroem Evins, Lena (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Lindgren, Maria (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This document is the model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Site. In the report, the quality assurance (QA) measures conducted for assessment codes are presented together with the chosen QA methodology. In the safety assessment project SR-Site, a large number of numerical models are used to analyse the system and to show compliance. In order to better understand how the different models interact and how information are transferred between the different models Assessment Model Flowcharts, AMFs, are used. From these, different modelling tasks can be identify and the computer codes used. As a large number of computer codes are used in the assessment the complexity of these differs to a large extent, some of the codes are commercial while others are developed especially for the assessment at hand. QA requirements must on the one hand take this diversity into account and on the other hand be well defined. In the methodology section of the report the following requirements are defined for all codes: - It must be demonstrated that the code is suitable for its purpose. - It must be demonstrated that the code has been properly used. - It must be demonstrated that the code development process has followed appropriate procedures and that the code produces accurate results. - It must be described how data are transferred between the different computational tasks. Although the requirements are identical for all codes in the assessment, the measures used to show that the requirements are fulfilled will be different for different types of codes (for instance due to the fact that for some software the source-code is not available for review). Subsequent to the methodology section, each assessment code is presented together with a discussion on how the requirements are met

  13. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.

    1988-08-01

    Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high level radioactive waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 44 refs

  14. Geologic modeling in risk assessment methodology for radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    Under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the University of New Mexico is developing a computer based assessment methodology for evaluating public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of radioactive waste in geologic formations. Methodology incorporates a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. The release model and its application to a model repository in bedded salt is described. Fault trees are constructed to provide the relationships between various geologic and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material beyond the immediate environs of the repository. The environmental model includes: 1) the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, 2) pathways from these environmental concentrations, and 3) radiation dose to man. Finally, economic results are used to compare and assess various disposal configurations as a basis for formulatin

  15. Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models in Chemical Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz Mumtaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Post-exposure risk assessment of chemical and environmental stressors is a public health challenge. Linking exposure to health outcomes is a 4-step process: exposure assessment, hazard identification, dose response assessment, and risk characterization. This process is increasingly adopting “in silico” tools such as physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models to fine-tune exposure assessments and determine internal doses in target organs/tissues. Many excellent PBPK models have been developed. But most, because of their scientific sophistication, have found limited field application—health assessors rarely use them. Over the years, government agencies, stakeholders/partners, and the scientific community have attempted to use these models or their underlying principles in combination with other practical procedures. During the past two decades, through cooperative agreements and contracts at several research and higher education institutions, ATSDR funded translational research has encouraged the use of various types of models. Such collaborative efforts have led to the development and use of transparent and user-friendly models. The “human PBPK model toolkit” is one such project. While not necessarily state of the art, this toolkit is sufficiently accurate for screening purposes. Highlighted in this paper are some selected examples of environmental and occupational exposure assessments of chemicals and their mixtures.

  16. A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

    2016-02-01

    Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

  17. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  18. Fire models for assessment of nuclear power plant fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicolette, V.F.; Nowlen, S.P.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in available fire models for the assessment of nuclear power plants fires. The advantages and disadvantages of three basic types of fire models (zone, field, and control volume) and Sandia's experience with these models will be discussed. It is shown that the type of fire model selected to solve a particular problem should be based on the information that is required. Areas of concern which relate to all nuclear power plant fire models are identified. 17 refs., 6 figs

  19. Pharmacokinetics of a Transdermal Fentanyl Solution in Suffolk Sheep (Ovis aries).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jen, Kimberly Y; Dyson, Melissa C; Lester, Patrick A; Nemzek, Jean A

    2017-09-01

    Sheep used as surgical models require appropriate pain management, and the commonly used transdermal fentanyl patches require a long predosing period to achieve adequate plasma concentrations. The aim of this study was to assess the pharmacokinetic parameters of an FDA-approved transdermal fentanyl solution (TFS) that has yet to be tested in sheep. In this study, we compared TFS at 2.7 mg/kg (n = 2), 1.7 mg/kg (n = 3), and 0.5 mg/kg (n = 3) with the control fentanyl patch at 2 μg/kg/h (n = 1); both products were applied topically to the intrascapular region. Plasma concentrations showed significant interanimal variability. Severe adverse effects occurred at both 2.7 and 1.7 mg/kg TFS and mild to moderate adverse effects were noted at 0.5 mg/kg. At all 3 doses, TFS had greater maximal concentration, clearance rate, and volume of distribution; shorter time to maximal concentration; and similar half-lives to those of the patch. In addition, we validated the use of a commercial human fentanyl ELISA kit, which positively correlated with the liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy data, but absolute values did not match. Overall, at all 3 dosages tested (0.5, 1.7, and 2.7 mg/kg), TFS delivered fentanyl plasma concentrations that exceeded the minimal effective concentration; however, adverse effects were noted at all 3 dosages. Caution and further study are required before the use of TFS in sheep can be recommended fully.

  20. Rapid serum agglutination and agar gel immunodiffusion tests associated to clinical signs in rams experimentally infected with Brucella ovis Teste de soro aglutinação rápida e do teste de imunodifusão em gel de ágar associados aos sinais clínicos em carneiros infectados experimentalmente com Brucella ovis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Nakada Nozaki

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to evaluate the agar gel immunodiffusion and the rapid serum agglutination tests associated to clinical signs in rams experimentally infected with Brucella ovis. The serological profile during the 12 months of infection showed a large fluctuation of antibodies that favors the failure in the diagnostic. The evaluation of tests after the experimental infection allowed to suggest that none of the tests were able to detect the infection throughout the period of study. The study reinforces the importance of considering the clinical signs to support the diagnosis of Brucella ovis infection in rams.O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o uso do teste de imunodifusão em gel de ágar e o teste sorológico de aglutinação rápida comparados aos sinais clínicos em carneiros infectados experimentalmente com Brucella ovis para o diagnóstico confirmatório da brucelose ovina. O perfil sorológico durante os 12 meses pós-infecção mostrou flutuação da resposta por anticorpos, que favorece a falha no diagnóstico. A avaliação dos testes indicou que nenhum dos testes foi capaz de detectar a infecção durante todo o período de estudo. O estudo ressalta a importância de considerar os sinais clínicos para apoiar o diagnóstico confirmatório da infecção por Brucella ovis em carneiros.

  1. A model for assessing human cognitive reliability in PRA studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannaman, G.W.; Spurgin, A.J.; Lukic, Y.

    1985-01-01

    This paper summarizes the status of a research project sponsored by EPRI as part of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technology improvement program and conducted by NUS Corporation to develop a model of Human Cognitive Reliability (HCR). The model was synthesized from features identified in a review of existing models. The model development was based on the hypothesis that the key factors affecting crew response times are separable. The inputs to the model consist of key parameters the values of which can be determined by PRA analysts for each accident situation being assessed. The output is a set of curves which represent the probability of control room crew non-response as a function of time for different conditions affecting their performance. The non-response probability is then a contributor to the overall non-success of operating crews to achieve a functional objective identified in the PRA study. Simulator data and some small scale tests were utilized to illustrate the calibration of interim HCR model coefficients for different types of cognitive processing since the data were sparse. The model can potentially help PRA analysts make human reliability assessments more explicit. The model incorporates concepts from psychological models of human cognitive behavior, information from current collections of human reliability data sources and crew response time data from simulator training exercises

  2. Dependability modeling and assessment in UML-based software development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardi, Simona; Merseguer, José; Petriu, Dorina C

    2012-01-01

    Assessment of software nonfunctional properties (NFP) is an important problem in software development. In the context of model-driven development, an emerging approach for the analysis of different NFPs consists of the following steps: (a) to extend the software models with annotations describing the NFP of interest; (b) to transform automatically the annotated software model to the formalism chosen for NFP analysis; (c) to analyze the formal model using existing solvers; (d) to assess the software based on the results and give feedback to designers. Such a modeling→analysis→assessment approach can be applied to any software modeling language, be it general purpose or domain specific. In this paper, we focus on UML-based development and on the dependability NFP, which encompasses reliability, availability, safety, integrity, and maintainability. The paper presents the profile used to extend UML with dependability information, the model transformation to generate a DSPN formal model, and the assessment of the system properties based on the DSPN results.

  3. Modelling the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment: evidence in the validity chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilliers, Francois J; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; van der Vleuten, Cees P M

    2012-11-01

    We previously developed a model of the pre-assessment learning effects of consequential assessment and started to validate it. The model comprises assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects. The purpose of this study was to continue the validation process. For stringency, we focused on a subset of assessment factor-learning effect associations that featured least commonly in a baseline qualitative study. Our aims were to determine whether these uncommon associations were operational in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was initially derived. A cross-sectional survey of 361 senior medical students at one medical school was undertaken using a purpose-made questionnaire based on a grounded theory and comprising pairs of written situational tests. In each pair, the manifestation of an assessment factor was varied. The frequencies at which learning effects were selected were compared for each item pair, using an adjusted alpha to assign significance. The frequencies at which mechanism factors were selected were calculated. There were significant differences in the learning effect selected between the two scenarios of an item pair for 13 of this subset of 21 uncommon associations, even when a p-value of value. For a subset of uncommon associations in the model, the role of most assessment factor-learning effect associations and the mechanism factors involved were supported in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was derived. Although model validation is an ongoing process, these results move the model one step closer to the stage of usefully informing interventions. Results illustrate how factors not typically included in studies of the learning effects of assessment could confound the results of interventions aimed at using assessment to influence learning. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.

  4. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-01-01

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  5. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  6. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  7. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  8. Model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vahlund, Fredrik

    2006-10-15

    This document is the model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Can. In the report, the quality assurance measures conducted for the assessment codes are presented together with the chosen methodology. In the safety assessment SR-Can, a number of different computer codes are used. In order to better understand how these codes are related Assessment Model Flowcharts, AMFs, have been produced within the project. From these, it is possible to identify the different modelling tasks and consequently also the different computer codes used. A large number of different computer codes are used in the assessment of which some are commercial while others are developed especially for the current assessment project. QA requirements must on the one hand take this diversity into account and on the other hand be well defined. In the methodology section of the report the following requirements are defined: It must be demonstrated that the code is suitable for its purpose; It must be demonstrated that the code has been properly used; and, It must be demonstrated that the code development process has followed appropriate procedures and that the code produces accurate results. Although the requirements are identical for all codes, the measures used to show that the requirements are fulfilled will be different for different codes (for instance due to the fact that for some software the source-code is not available for review). Subsequent to the methodology section, each assessment code is presented and it is shown how the requirements are met.

  9. Model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahlund, Fredrik

    2006-10-01

    This document is the model summary report for the safety assessment SR-Can. In the report, the quality assurance measures conducted for the assessment codes are presented together with the chosen methodology. In the safety assessment SR-Can, a number of different computer codes are used. In order to better understand how these codes are related Assessment Model Flowcharts, AMFs, have been produced within the project. From these, it is possible to identify the different modelling tasks and consequently also the different computer codes used. A large number of different computer codes are used in the assessment of which some are commercial while others are developed especially for the current assessment project. QA requirements must on the one hand take this diversity into account and on the other hand be well defined. In the methodology section of the report the following requirements are defined: It must be demonstrated that the code is suitable for its purpose; It must be demonstrated that the code has been properly used; and, It must be demonstrated that the code development process has followed appropriate procedures and that the code produces accurate results. Although the requirements are identical for all codes, the measures used to show that the requirements are fulfilled will be different for different codes (for instance due to the fact that for some software the source-code is not available for review). Subsequent to the methodology section, each assessment code is presented and it is shown how the requirements are met

  10. PARALLEL MODELS OF ASSESSMENT: INFANT MENTAL HEALTH AND THERAPEUTIC ASSESSMENT MODELS INTERSECT THROUGH EARLY CHILDHOOD CASE STUDIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gart, Natalie; Zamora, Irina; Williams, Marian E

    2016-07-01

    Therapeutic Assessment (TA; S.E. Finn & M.E. Tonsager, 1997; J.D. Smith, 2010) is a collaborative, semistructured model that encourages self-discovery and meaning-making through the use of assessment as an intervention approach. This model shares core strategies with infant mental health assessment, including close collaboration with parents and caregivers, active participation of the family, a focus on developing new family stories and increasing parents' understanding of their child, and reducing isolation and increasing hope through the assessment process. The intersection of these two theoretical approaches is explored, using case studies of three infants/young children and their families to illustrate the application of TA to infant mental health. The case of an 18-month-old girl whose parents fear that she has bipolar disorder illustrates the core principles of the TA model, highlighting the use of assessment intervention sessions and the clinical approach to preparing assessment feedback. The second case follows an infant with a rare genetic syndrome from ages 2 to 24 months, focusing on the assessor-parent relationship and the importance of a developmental perspective. Finally, assessment of a 3-year-old boy illustrates the development and use of a fable as a tool to provide feedback to a young child about assessment findings and recommendations. © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  11. Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW); More, Simon; Bøtner, Anette

    2017-01-01

    Ovine epididymitis (Brucella ovis) has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of ovine epididymitis to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of ovine epididymitis...

  12. NEW MODEL OF QUALITY ASSESSMENT IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION - UPGRADING THE COMMON ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (CAF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirna Macur

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In our study, we developed new model of quality assessment in public administration. The Common Assessment Framework (CAF is frequently used in continental Europe for this purpose. Its use has many benefits, however we believe its assessment logic is not adequate for public administration. Upgraded version of CAF is conceptually different: instead of analytical and linear CAF we get the instrument that measures organisation as a network of complex processes. Original and upgraded assessment approaches are presented in the paper and compared in the case of self-assessment of selected public administration organisation. The two approaches produced different, sometimes contradictory results. The upgraded model proved to be logically more consistent and it produced higher interpretation capacity.

  13. Fish habitat simulation models and integrated assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harby, A.; Alfredsen, K.

    1999-01-01

    Because of human development water use increases in importance, and this worldwide trend is leading to an increasing number of user conflicts with a strong need for assessment tools to measure the impacts both on the ecosystem and the different users and user groups. The quantitative tools must allow a comparison of alternatives, different user groups, etc., and the tools must be integrated while impact assessments includes different disciplines. Fish species, especially young ones, are indicators of the environmental state of a riverine system and monitoring them is a way to follow environmental changes. The direct and indirect impacts on the ecosystem itself are measured, and impacts on user groups is not included. Fish habitat simulation models are concentrated on, and methods and examples are considered from Norway. Some ideas on integrated modelling tools for impact assessment studies are included. One dimensional hydraulic models are rapidly calibrated and do not require any expert knowledge in hydraulics. Two and three dimensional models require a bit more skilled users, especially if the topography is very heterogeneous. The advantages of using two and three dimensional models include: they do not need any calibration, just validation; they are predictive; and they can be more cost effective than traditional habitat hydraulic models when combined with modern data acquisition systems and tailored in a multi-disciplinary study. Suitable modelling model choice should be based on available data and possible data acquisition, available manpower, computer, and software resources, and needed output and accuracy in the output. 58 refs

  14. Addressing challenges in single species assessments via a simple state-space assessment model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders

    Single-species and age-structured fish stock assessments still remains the main tool for managing fish stocks. A simple state-space assessment model is presented as an alternative to (semi) deterministic procedures and the full parametric statistical catch at age models. It offers a solution...... to some of the key challenges of these models. Compared to the deterministic procedures it solves a list of problems originating from falsely assuming that age classified catches are known without errors and allows quantification of uncertainties of estimated quantities of interest. Compared to full...

  15. Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.; Wood, Thomas W.; Daly, Don S.; Brothers, Alan J.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Cook, Diane; Holder, Larry

    2011-09-29

    This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determine which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An

  16. Combining catchment and instream modelling to assess physical habitat quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    Study objectives After the implementation of EU's Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Denmark ecological impacts from groundwater exploitation on surface waters has to receive additional consideration. Small streams in particular are susceptible to changes in run-off but have only recieved little...... attention in past studies of run-off impact on the quality of stream physical habitats. This study combined catchment and instream models with instream habitat observations to assess the ecological impacts from groundwater exploitation on a small stream. The main objectives of this study was; • to assess...... which factors are controlling the run-off conditions in stream Ledreborg and to what degree • to assess the run-off reference condition of stream Ledreborg where intensive groundwater abstraction has taken place in 67 years using a simple rainfall-run-off-model • to assess how stream run-off affect...

  17. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  18. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, S.

    2000-01-01

    In a recent study carried out for the European Commission, the scope and application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) legislation and current EIA practice in European Union Member States and applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe was investigated, specifically in relation to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. This paper reports the study's investigations into a model approach to EIA in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment in the overall decision processes and public involvement. (author)

  19. Proposing an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulengracht Jensen, Peter; Johansen, John; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

    2013-01-01

    that the EEA model can be used in global organizations to differentiate environmental efforts depending on the maturity stage of the individual sites. Furthermore, the model can be used to support the decision-making process regarding when organizations should embark on more complex environmental efforts......This paper presents an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment (EEA) model based on the structure of the European Foundation of Quality Management Business Excellence Framework. Four theoretical scenarios for deploying the model are presented as well as managerial implications, suggesting...

  20. Report on the model developments in the sectoral assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iglesias, Ana; Termansen, Mette; Bouwer, Laurens

    2014-01-01

    into the economic assessments. At the same time, the models will link to the case studies in two ways. First, they use the data in the case studies for model validation and then they provide information to inform stakeholders on adaptation strategies. Therefore, Deliverable 3.2 aims to address three main questions......The Objective of this Deliverable D3.2 is to describe the models developed in BASE that is, the experimental setup for the sectoral modelling. The model development described in this deliverable will then be implemented in the adaptation and economic analysis in WP6 in order to integrate adaptation......: How to address climate adaptation options with the sectoral bottom-up models? - This includes a quantification of the costs of adaptation with the sectoral models, in monetary terms or in other measures of costs. The benefits in this framework will be the avoided damages, therefore a measure...

  1. Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2018-01-01

    represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state......In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature...... dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework...

  2. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  3. Consensus-based training and assessment model for general surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szasz, P; Louridas, M; de Montbrun, S; Harris, K A; Grantcharov, T P

    2016-05-01

    Surgical education is becoming competency-based with the implementation of in-training milestones. Training guidelines should reflect these changes and determine the specific procedures for such milestone assessments. This study aimed to develop a consensus view regarding operative procedures and tasks considered appropriate for junior and senior trainees, and the procedures that can be used as technical milestone assessments for trainee progression in general surgery. A Delphi process was followed where questionnaires were distributed to all 17 Canadian general surgery programme directors. Items were ranked on a 5-point Likert scale, with consensus defined as Cronbach's α of at least 0·70. Items rated 4 or above on the 5-point Likert scale by 80 per cent of the programme directors were included in the models. Two Delphi rounds were completed, with 14 programme directors taking part in round one and 11 in round two. The overall consensus was high (Cronbach's α = 0·98). The training model included 101 unique procedures and tasks, 24 specific to junior trainees, 68 specific to senior trainees, and nine appropriate to all. The assessment model included four procedures. A system of operative procedures and tasks for junior- and senior-level trainees has been developed along with an assessment model for trainee progression. These can be used as milestones in competency-based assessments. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Uranium and Associated Heavy Metals in Ovis aries in a Mining Impacted Area in Northwestern New Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Samuel-Nakamura

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine uranium (U and other heavy metal (HM concentrations (As, Cd, Pb, Mo, and Se in tissue samples collected from sheep (Ovis aries, the primary meat staple on the Navajo reservation in northwestern New Mexico. The study setting was a prime target of U mining, where more than 1100 unreclaimed abandoned U mines and structures remain. The forage and water sources for the sheep in this study were located within 3.2 km of abandoned U mines and structures. Tissue samples from sheep (n = 3, their local forage grasses (n = 24, soil (n = 24, and drinking water (n = 14 sources were collected. The samples were analyzed using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry. Results: In general, HMs concentrated more in the roots of forage compared to the above ground parts. The sheep forage samples fell below the National Research Council maximum tolerable concentration (5 mg/kg. The bioaccumulation factor ratio was >1 in several forage samples, ranging from 1.12 to 16.86 for Mo, Cd, and Se. The study findings showed that the concentrations of HMs were greatest in the liver and kidneys. Of the calculated human intake, Se Reference Dietary Intake and Mo Recommended Dietary Allowance were exceeded, but the tolerable upper limits for both were not exceeded. Food intake recommendations informed by research are needed for individuals especially those that may be more sensitive to HMs. Further study with larger sample sizes is needed to explore other impacted communities across the reservation.

  5. Faecal glucocorticoid metabolites and body temperature in Australian merino ewes (Ovis aries) during summer artificial insemination (AI) program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Gregory; Parisella, Simone

    2018-01-01

    Reproductive wastage is a key issue for sheep producers, both regionally and globally. The reproductive output of farm animals can be influenced by physiological and environmental factors. Rapid and reliable quantification of physiological stress can provide a useful tool for designing and testing on-farm management interventions to improve farm animal welfare and productivity. In this study, we quantified physiological stress non-invasively using faecal glucocorticoid metabolites-FGMs analysis and body temperature measurements of 15 superovulated donor merino ewes (Ovis aries) during participation in artificial insemination (AI) program conducted during 2015/2016 Australian summer. We hypothesized that low percentage transferable embryos in donor merino ewes will be associated positively with higher body temperature and/or higher FGMs in these ewes. Temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated and found within high thermal stress range during the two AI trials. Overall, results showed none of the factors (ewe ID, AI trial no., THI or FGMs) were significant for reduced percentage transferrable embryos, except ewe body temperature was highly significant (p = 0.014). Within AI trial comparisons showed significant positive associations between higher FGMs and body temperature with reduced transferrable embryos. These results suggest that Australian merino ewes participating in summer AI trials can experience physiological stress. Prolonged activation of the stress endocrine response and high body temperature (e.g. ensued from heat stress) could impact on ewe reproductive output. Therefore, future research should apply minimally invasive physiological tools to gather baseline information on physiological stress in merino sheep to enable the development of new farm-friendly methods of managing stress. PMID:29381759

  6. Inactivated Parapoxvirus ovis induces a transient increase in the expression of proinflammatory, Th1-related, and autoregulatory cytokines in mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anziliero, D.; Weiblen, R.; Kreutz, L.C.; Spilki, F.; Flores, E.F.

    2014-01-01

    The immunostimulatory properties of inactivated Parapoxvirus ovis (iPPVO) have long been investigated in different animal species and experimental settings. In this study, we investigated the effects of iPPVO on cytokine expression in mice after intraperitoneal inoculation. Spleen and sera collected from iPPVO-treated mice at intervals after inoculation were submitted to cytokine mRNA determination by real-time PCR (qPCR), serum protein concentration by ELISA, and interferon (IFN)-α/β activity by bioassay. The spleen of iPPVO-treated animals showed a significant increase in mRNA expression of all cytokines assayed, with different kinetics and magnitude. Proinflammatory cytokines interleukin (IL)-1β, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), and IL-8 mRNA peaked at 24 hours postinoculation (hpi; 5.4-fold increase) and 48 hpi (3- and 10-fold increases), respectively. A 15-fold increase in IFN-γ and 6-fold IL-12 mRNA increase were detected at 48 and 24 hpi, respectively. Increased expression of autoregulatory cytokines (Th2), mainly IL-10 and IL-4, could be detected at later times (72 and 96 hpi) with peaks of 4.7- and 4.9-fold increases, respectively. IFN-I antiviral activity against encephalomyocarditis virus was demonstrated in sera of treated animals between 6 and 12 hpi, with a >90% reduction in the number of plaques. Measurement of serum proteins by ELISA revealed increased levels of IL-1, TNF-α, IL-12, IFN-γ, and IL-10, with kinetics similar to those observed by qPCR, especially for IL-12 and IFN-γ. These data demonstrate that iPPVO induced a transient and complex cytokine response, initially represented by Th1-related cytokines followed by autoregulatory and Th2 cytokines

  7. Effect of vaccination against pneumonia on the survival of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) commingled with carrier animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, Bindu; Bavananthasivam, Jegarubee; Kugadas, Abirami; Haldorson, Gary J; Srikumaran, Subramaniam

    2017-05-01

    Leukotoxin producing (lkt+) members of Pasteurellaceae, particularly Mannheimia haemolytica and Bibersteinia trehalosi are important pathogens of pneumonia in bighorn sheep (BHS; Ovis canadensis), causing fatal disease. Predisposing or concurrent infection with Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae enhances the severity of the disease, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. Several studies have investigated the effectiveness of vaccines against lkt+ members of Pasteurellaceae in preventing fatal pneumonia in BHS. In all of these studies, however, vaccinated animals were challenged experimentally, by direct inoculation of the pathogens, rather than by natural challenge. Moreover, none has investigated the efficacy of the vaccines under conditions of concurrent infection with M. ovipneumoniae. We immunized three bighorn rams and one pregnant ewe with an experimental multivalent vaccine along with a commercial vaccine. The immunized animals were then commingled with two bighorn ewes known to be carriers of lkt+ members of Pasteurellaceae, to simulate natural infection or disease transmission. All vaccinated animals remained healthy. We then inoculated the two carrier ewes with nasal washings from domestic sheep containing M. ovipneumoniae. Within a week, all animals developed mild to moderate signs of pneumonia. While the rams died within two-three months post-inoculation (p.i.), the vaccinated ewe and her lamb died five and eight months p.i., respectively. Taken together, these results suggest that vaccination of BHS against lkt+ members of Pasteurellaceae alone can protect them from natural challenge by these pathogens. However, it may not be adequate to protect them against pneumonia compounded by concurrent infection with M. ovipneumoniae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Inactivated Parapoxvirus ovis induces a transient increase in the expression of proinflammatory, Th1-related, and autoregulatory cytokines in mice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anziliero, D.; Weiblen, R. [Setor de Virologia, Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS, Brasil, Setor de Virologia, Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS (Brazil); Kreutz, L.C. [Programa de Pós-Graduação em Bioexperimentação, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, Universidade de Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, Brasil, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Bioexperimentação, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, Universidade de Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS (Brazil); Spilki, F. [Laboratório de Microbiologia Molecular, Instituto de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Feevale, Novo Hamburgo, RS, Brasil, Laboratório de Microbiologia Molecular, Instituto de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Feevale, Novo Hamburgo, RS (Brazil); Flores, E.F. [Setor de Virologia, Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS, Brasil, Setor de Virologia, Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, RS (Brazil)

    2014-02-17

    The immunostimulatory properties of inactivated Parapoxvirus ovis (iPPVO) have long been investigated in different animal species and experimental settings. In this study, we investigated the effects of iPPVO on cytokine expression in mice after intraperitoneal inoculation. Spleen and sera collected from iPPVO-treated mice at intervals after inoculation were submitted to cytokine mRNA determination by real-time PCR (qPCR), serum protein concentration by ELISA, and interferon (IFN)-α/β activity by bioassay. The spleen of iPPVO-treated animals showed a significant increase in mRNA expression of all cytokines assayed, with different kinetics and magnitude. Proinflammatory cytokines interleukin (IL)-1β, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), and IL-8 mRNA peaked at 24 hours postinoculation (hpi; 5.4-fold increase) and 48 hpi (3- and 10-fold increases), respectively. A 15-fold increase in IFN-γ and 6-fold IL-12 mRNA increase were detected at 48 and 24 hpi, respectively. Increased expression of autoregulatory cytokines (Th2), mainly IL-10 and IL-4, could be detected at later times (72 and 96 hpi) with peaks of 4.7- and 4.9-fold increases, respectively. IFN-I antiviral activity against encephalomyocarditis virus was demonstrated in sera of treated animals between 6 and 12 hpi, with a >90% reduction in the number of plaques. Measurement of serum proteins by ELISA revealed increased levels of IL-1, TNF-α, IL-12, IFN-γ, and IL-10, with kinetics similar to those observed by qPCR, especially for IL-12 and IFN-γ. These data demonstrate that iPPVO induced a transient and complex cytokine response, initially represented by Th1-related cytokines followed by autoregulatory and Th2 cytokines.

  9. Assessment of the assessment: Evaluation of the model quality estimates in CASP10

    KAUST Repository

    Kryshtafovych, Andriy

    2013-08-31

    The article presents an assessment of the ability of the thirty-seven model quality assessment (MQA) methods participating in CASP10 to provide an a priori estimation of the quality of structural models, and of the 67 tertiary structure prediction groups to provide confidence estimates for their predicted coordinates. The assessment of MQA predictors is based on the methods used in previous CASPs, such as correlation between the predicted and observed quality of the models (both at the global and local levels), accuracy of methods in distinguishing between good and bad models as well as good and bad regions within them, and ability to identify the best models in the decoy sets. Several numerical evaluations were used in our analysis for the first time, such as comparison of global and local quality predictors with reference (baseline) predictors and a ROC analysis of the predictors\\' ability to differentiate between the well and poorly modeled regions. For the evaluation of the reliability of self-assessment of the coordinate errors, we used the correlation between the predicted and observed deviations of the coordinates and a ROC analysis of correctly identified errors in the models. A modified two-stage procedure for testing MQA methods in CASP10 whereby a small number of models spanning the whole range of model accuracy was released first followed by the release of a larger number of models of more uniform quality, allowed a more thorough analysis of abilities and inabilities of different types of methods. Clustering methods were shown to have an advantage over the single- and quasi-single- model methods on the larger datasets. At the same time, the evaluation revealed that the size of the dataset has smaller influence on the global quality assessment scores (for both clustering and nonclustering methods), than its diversity. Narrowing the quality range of the assessed models caused significant decrease in accuracy of ranking for global quality predictors but

  10. Radioactive waste disposal assessment - overview of biosphere processes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughtrey, P.J.

    1992-09-01

    This report provides an overview of biosphere processes and models in the general context of the radiological assessment of radioactive waste disposal as a basis for HMIP's response to biosphere aspects of Nirex's submissions for disposal of radioactive wastes in a purpose-built repository at Sellafield, Cumbria. The overview takes into account published information from the UK as available from Nirex's safety and assessment research programme and HMIP's disposal assessment programme, as well as that available from studies in the UK and elsewhere. (Author)

  11. Testing of an accident consequence assessment model using field data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsubara, Takeshi; Tomita, Kenichi

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the results obtained from the application of an accident consequence assessment model, OSCAAR to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS and also to the Chernobyl 131 I fallout scenario of EMRAS, both organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models had some limitations but the refined model, COLINA almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. The Plavsk scenario provides a good opportunity to test not only the food chain transfer model of 131 I but also the method of assessing 131 I thyroid burden. OSCAAR showed in general good capabilities for assessing the important 131 I exposure pathways. (author)

  12. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-06-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  13. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  14. Guide for developing conceptual models for ecological risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W., II.

    1996-05-01

    Ecological conceptual models are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological risk assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual models; use of this guide will standardize the models so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual models are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs

  15. Persistent hemifacial spasm after microvascular decompression: a risk assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Aalap; Horowitz, Michael

    2017-06-01

    Microvascular decompression (MVD) for hemifacial spasm (HFS) provides resolution of disabling symptoms such as eyelid twitching and muscle contractions of the entire hemiface. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of patient demographics and spasm characteristics on long-term outcomes, with or without intraoperative lateral spread response (LSR) as an additional variable in a risk assessment model. A retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate the associations of pre-operative patient characteristics, as well as intraoperative LSR and need for a staged procedure on the presence of persistent or recurrent HFS at the time of hospital discharge and at follow-up. A risk assessment model was constructed with the inclusion of six clinically or statistically significant variables from the univariate analyses. A receiving operator characteristic curve was generated, and area under the curve was calculated to determine the strength of the predictive model. A risk assessment model was first created consisting of significant pre-operative variables (Model 1) (age >50, female gender, history of botulinum toxin use, platysma muscle involvement). This model demonstrated borderline predictive value for persistent spasm at discharge (AUC .60; p=.045) and fair predictive value at follow-up (AUC .75; p=.001). Intraoperative variables (e.g. LSR persistence) demonstrated little additive value (Model 2) (AUC .67). Patients with a higher risk score (three or greater) demonstrated greater odds of persistent HFS at the time of discharge (OR 1.5 [95%CI 1.16-1.97]; p=.035), as well as greater odds of persistent or recurrent spasm at the time of follow-up (OR 3.0 [95%CI 1.52-5.95]; p=.002) Conclusions: A risk assessment model consisting of pre-operative clinical characteristics is useful in prognosticating HFS persistence at follow-up.

  16. Modeling Composite Assessment Data Using Item Response Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueckert, Sebastian

    2018-01-01

    Composite assessments aim to combine different aspects of a disease in a single score and are utilized in a variety of therapeutic areas. The data arising from these evaluations are inherently discrete with distinct statistical properties. This tutorial presents the framework of the item response theory (IRT) for the analysis of this data type in a pharmacometric context. The article considers both conceptual (terms and assumptions) and practical questions (modeling software, data requirements, and model building). PMID:29493119

  17. Assessing biocomputational modelling in transforming clinical guidelines for osteoporosis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiel, Rainer; Viceconti, Marco; Stroetmann, Karl

    2011-01-01

    Biocomputational modelling as developed by the European Virtual Physiological Human (VPH) Initiative is the area of ICT most likely to revolutionise in the longer term the practice of medicine. Using the example of osteoporosis management, a socio-economic assessment framework is presented that captures how the transformation of clinical guidelines through VPH models can be evaluated. Applied to the Osteoporotic Virtual Physiological Human Project, a consequent benefit-cost analysis delivers promising results, both methodologically and substantially.

  18. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-01

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  19. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-15

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  20. Mesorad dose assessment model. Volume 1. Technical basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherpelz, R.I.; Bander, T.J.; Athey, G.F.; Ramsdell, J.V.

    1986-03-01

    MESORAD is a dose assessment model for emergency response applications. Using release data for as many as 50 radionuclides, the model calculates: (1) external doses resulting from exposure to radiation emitted by radionuclides contained in elevated or deposited material; (2) internal dose commitment resulting from inhalation; and (3) total whole-body doses. External doses from airborne material are calculated using semi-infinite and finite cloud approximations. At each stage in model execution, the appropriate approximation is selected after considering the cloud dimensions. Atmospheric processes are represented in MESORAD by a combination of Lagrangian puff and Gaussian plume dispersion models, a source depletion (deposition velocity) dry deposition model, and a wet deposition model using washout coefficients based on precipitation rates

  1. Biosphere models for safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proehl, G.; Olyslaegers, G.; Zeevaert, T.; Kanyar, B.; Bergstroem, U.; Hallberg, B.; Mobbs, S.; Chen, Q.; Kowe, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the BioMoSA project has been to contribute in the confidence building of biosphere models, for application in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal. The detailed objectives of this project are: development and test of practical biosphere models for application in long-term safety studies of radioactive waste disposal to different European locations, identification of features, events and processes that need to be modelled on a site-specific rather than on a generic base, comparison of the results and quantification of the variability of site-specific models developed according to the reference biosphere methodology, development of a generic biosphere tool for application in long term safety studies, comparison of results from site-specific models to those from generic one, Identification of possibilities and limitations for the application of the generic biosphere model. (orig.)

  2. Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wehner, Michael; Knutti, Reto

    2017-01-01

    We present a weighting strategy for use with the CMIP5 multi-model archive in the fourth National Climate Assessment, which considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America as well as the inter-dependency of models arising from common parameterizations or tuning practices. The method exploits information relating to the climatological mean state of a number of projection-relevant variables as well as metrics representing long-term statistics of weather extremes. The weights, once computed can be used to simply compute weighted means and significance information from an ensemble containing multiple initial condition members from potentially co-dependent models of varying skill. Two parameters in the algorithm determine the degree to which model climatological skill and model uniqueness are rewarded; these parameters are explored and final values are defended for the assessment. The influence of model weighting on projected temperature and precipitation changes is found to be moderate, partly due to a compensating effect between model skill and uniqueness. However, more aggressive skill weighting and weighting by targeted metrics is found to have a more significant effect on inferred ensemble confidence in future patterns of change for a given projection.

  3. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  4. An analytical model for the assessment of airline expansion strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Emboaba Moreira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this article is to develop an analytical model to assess airline expansion strategies by combining generic business strategy models with airline business models. Methodology and approach: A number of airline business models are examined, as are Porter’s (1983 industry five forces that drive competition, complemented by Nalebuff/ Brandenburger’s  (1996 sixth force, and the basic elements of the general environment in which the expansion process takes place.  A system of points and weights is developed to create a score among the 904,736 possible combinations considered. The model’s outputs are generic expansion strategies with quantitative assessments for each specific combination of elements inputted. Originality and value: The analytical model developed is original because it combines for the first time and explicitly elements of the general environment, industry environment, airline business models and the generic expansion strategy types. Besides it creates a system of scores that may be used to drive the decision process toward the choice of a specific strategic expansion path. Research implications: The analytical model may be adapted to other industries apart from the airline industry by substituting the element “airline business model” by other industries corresponding elements related to the different specific business models.

  5. A Methodology to Assess Ionospheric Models for GNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira-Garcia, Adria; Juan, José Miguel; Sanz, Jaume; González-Casado, Guillermo; Ibánez, Deimos

    2015-04-01

    Testing the accuracy of the ionospheric models used in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is a long-standing issue. It is still a challenging problem due to the lack of accurate enough slant ionospheric determinations to be used as a reference. The present study proposes a methodology to assess any ionospheric model used in satellite-based applications and, in particular, GNSS ionospheric models. The methodology complements other analysis comparing the navigation based on different models to correct the code and carrier-phase observations. Specifically, the following ionospheric models are assessed: the operational models broadcast in the Global Positioning System (GPS), Galileo and the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay System (EGNOS), the post-process Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) from different analysis centers belonging to the International GNSS Service (IGS) and, finally, a new GIM computed by the gAGE/UPC research group. The methodology is based in the comparison between the predictions of the ionospheric model with actual unambiguous carrier-phase measurements from a global distribution of permanent receivers. The differences shall be separated into the hardware delays (a receiver constant plus a satellite constant) per data interval, e.g., a day. The condition that these Differential Code Biases (DCBs) are commonly shared throughout the world-wide network of receivers and satellites provides a global character to the assessment. This approach generalizes simple tests based on double differenced Slant Total Electron Contents (STECs) between pairs of satellites and receivers on a much local scale. The present study has been conducted during the entire 2014, i.e., the last Solar Maximum. The seasonal and latitudinal structures of the results clearly reflect the different strategies used by the different models. On one hand, ionospheric model corrections based on a grid (IGS-GIMs or EGNOS) are shown to be several times better than the models

  6. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  7. Peer Assessment with Online Tools to Improve Student Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Leslie J.

    2012-11-01

    Introductory physics courses often require students to develop precise models of phenomena and represent these with diagrams, including free-body diagrams, light-ray diagrams, and maps of field lines. Instructors expect that students will adopt a certain rigor and precision when constructing these diagrams, but we want that rigor and precision to be an aid to sense-making rather than meeting seemingly arbitrary requirements set by the instructor. By giving students the authority to develop their own models and establish requirements for their diagrams, the sense that these are arbitrary requirements diminishes and students are more likely to see modeling as a sense-making activity. The practice of peer assessment can help students take ownership; however, it can be difficult for instructors to manage. Furthermore, it is not without risk: students can be reluctant to critique their peers, they may view this as the job of the instructor, and there is no guarantee that students will employ greater rigor and precision as a result of peer assessment. In this article, we describe one approach for peer assessment that can establish norms for diagrams in a way that is student driven, where students retain agency and authority in assessing and improving their work. We show that such an approach does indeed improve students' diagrams and abilities to assess their own work, without sacrificing students' authority and agency.

  8. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol.2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios

  9. A critique of recent models for human error rate assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.E.

    1988-01-01

    This paper critically reviews two groups of models for assessing human error rates under accident conditions. The first group, which includes the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) handbook model and the human cognitive reliability (HCR) model, considers as fundamental the time that is available to the operators to act. The second group, which is represented by the success likelihood index methodology multiattribute utility decomposition (SLIM-MAUD) model, relies on ratings of the human actions with respect to certain qualitative factors and the subsequent derivation of error rates. These models are evaluated with respect to two criteria: the treatment of uncertainties and the internal coherence of the models. In other words, this evaluation focuses primarily on normative aspects of these models. The principal findings are as follows: (1) Both of the time-related models provide human error rates as a function of the available time for action and the prevailing conditions. However, the HCR model ignores the important issue of state-of-knowledge uncertainties, dealing exclusively with stochastic uncertainty, whereas the model presented in the NRC handbook handles both types of uncertainty. (2) SLIM-MAUD provides a highly structured approach for the derivation of human error rates under given conditions. However, the treatment of the weights and ratings in this model is internally inconsistent. (author)

  10. Assessment of the Eu migration experiments and their modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klotz, D.

    2001-01-01

    The humic acid transport of heavy metals in underground water was investigated in laboratory experiments using the lanthanide Eu in the form of 152 Eu 3+ , which is both a model heavy metal and an indicator for assessing the potential hazards of ultimate storage sites for radioactive waste [de

  11. Application of mixed models for the assessment genotype and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of mixed models for the assessment genotype and environment interactions in cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum ) cultivars in Mozambique. ... The cultivars ISA 205, STAM 42 and REMU 40 showed superior productivity when they were selected by the Harmonic Mean of Genotypic Values (HMGV) criterion in relation ...

  12. Groundwater Impacts of Radioactive Wastes and Associated Environmental Modeling Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Liu, Chongxuan

    2012-11-01

    This article provides a review of the major sources of radioactive wastes and their impacts on groundwater contamination. The review discusses the major biogeochemical processes that control the transport and fate of radionuclide contaminants in groundwater, and describe the evolution of mathematical models designed to simulate and assess the transport and transformation of radionuclides in groundwater.

  13. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  14. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  15. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  16. Assessment of the Quality Management Models in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basar, Gulsun; Altinay, Zehra; Dagli, Gokmen; Altinay, Fahriye

    2016-01-01

    This study involves the assessment of the quality management models in Higher Education by explaining the importance of quality in higher education and by examining the higher education quality assurance system practices in other countries. The qualitative study was carried out with the members of the Higher Education Planning, Evaluation,…

  17. Model assessment of protective barrier designs: Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fayer, M.J.

    1987-11-01

    Protective barriers are being considered for use at the Hanford Site to enhance the isolation of radioactive wastes from water, plant, and animal intrusion. This study assesses the effectiveness of protective barriers for isolation of wastes from water. In this report, barrier designs are reviewed and several barrier modeling assumptions are tested. 20 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs

  18. Modeling Logistic Performance in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijgersberg, H.; Tromp, S.O.; Jacxsens, L.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage

  19. Heuristic Model Of The Composite Quality Index Of Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, A. N.; Knyaginin, A. A.; Bondarenko, D. V.; Shepet, I. P.; Korolkova, L. N.

    2017-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to present the heuristic model of the composite environmental quality index based on the integrated application of the elements of utility theory, multidimensional scaling, expert evaluation and decision-making. The composite index is synthesized in linear-quadratic form, it provides higher adequacy of the results of the assessment preferences of experts and decision-makers.

  20. An Empirical Study of a Solo Performance Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Brian E.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to test a hypothesized model of solo music performance assessment. Specifically, this study investigates the influence of technique and musical expression on perceptions of overall performance quality. The Aural Musical Performance Quality (AMPQ) measure was created to measure overall performance quality, technique,…

  1. A model for assessing Medicago Sativa L. hay quality | Scholtz ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was conducted to identify chemical parameters and/or models for assessing. Medicago sativa L. (L) hay quality, using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) analysis and Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) milk prediction as a criterion of accuracy. Milk yield (MY) derived from the ...

  2. A Comprehensive Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Häyhtiö Markus

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available International business demands seamless service and IT-infrastructure throughout the entire supply chain. However, dependencies between different parts of this vulnerable ecosystem form a fragile web. Assessment of the financial effects of any abnormalities in any part of the network is demanded in order to protect this network in a financially viable way. Contractual environment between the actors in a supply chain, different business domains and functions requires a management model, which enables a network wide protection for critical infrastructure. In this paper authors introduce such a model. It can be used to assess financial differences between centralized and decentralized protection of critical infrastructure. As an end result of this assessment business resilience to unknown threats can be improved across the entire supply chain.

  3. Validation study of safety assessment model for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munakata, Masahiro; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-12-01

    The JAERI-AECL collaboration research program has been conducted to validate a groundwater flow and radionuclide transport models for safety assessment. JAERI have developed a geostatistical model for radionuclide transport through a heterogeneous geological media and verify using experimental results of field tracer tests. The simulated tracer plumes explain favorably the experimental tracer plumes. A regional groundwater flow and transport model using site-scale parameter obtained from tracer tests have been verified by comparing simulation results with observation ones of natural environmental tracer. (author)

  4. Model Test Bed for Evaluating Wave Models and Best Practices for Resource Assessment and Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Yang, Zhaoqing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Wang, Taiping [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Coastal Sciences Division; Gunawan, Budi [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies; Dallman, Ann Renee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Water Power Technologies

    2016-03-01

    A wave model test bed is established to benchmark, test and evaluate spectral wave models and modeling methodologies (i.e., best practices) for predicting the wave energy resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission, IEC TS 62600-101Ed. 1.0 ©2015. Among other benefits, the model test bed can be used to investigate the suitability of different models, specifically what source terms should be included in spectral wave models under different wave climate conditions and for different classes of resource assessment. The overarching goal is to use these investigations to provide industry guidance for model selection and modeling best practices depending on the wave site conditions and desired class of resource assessment. Modeling best practices are reviewed, and limitations and knowledge gaps in predicting wave energy resource parameters are identified.

  5. Spatial variability and parametric uncertainty in performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James; Painter, Scott; Tomishima, Yasuo

    2011-01-01

    The problem of defining an appropriate treatment of distribution functions (which could represent spatial variability or parametric uncertainty) is examined based on a generic performance assessment model for a high-level waste repository. The generic model incorporated source term models available in GoldSim ® , the TDRW code for contaminant transport in sparse fracture networks with a complex fracture-matrix interaction process, and a biosphere dose model known as BDOSE TM . Using the GoldSim framework, several Monte Carlo sampling approaches and transport conceptualizations were evaluated to explore the effect of various treatments of spatial variability and parametric uncertainty on dose estimates. Results from a model employing a representative source and ensemble-averaged pathway properties were compared to results from a model allowing for stochastic variation of transport properties along streamline segments (i.e., explicit representation of spatial variability within a Monte Carlo realization). We concluded that the sampling approach and the definition of an ensemble representative do influence consequence estimates. In the examples analyzed in this paper, approaches considering limited variability of a transport resistance parameter along a streamline increased the frequency of fast pathways resulting in relatively high dose estimates, while those allowing for broad variability along streamlines increased the frequency of 'bottlenecks' reducing dose estimates. On this basis, simplified approaches with limited consideration of variability may suffice for intended uses of the performance assessment model, such as evaluation of site safety. (author)

  6. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  7. Some considerations for validation of repository performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, N.

    1991-01-01

    Validation is an important aspect of the regulatory uses of performance assessment. A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which validation of models is usually pursued. Because performance models for a nuclear waste repository cannot be tested over the long time periods for which the model must make predictions, the usual avenue for model validation is precluded. Further impediments to model validation include a lack of fundamental scientific theory to describe important aspects of repository performance and an inability to easily deduce the complex, intricate structures characteristic of a natural system. A successful strategy for validation must attempt to resolve these difficulties in a direct fashion. Although some procedural aspects will be important, the main reliance of validation should be on scientific substance and logical rigor. The level of validation needed will be mandated, in part, by the uses to which these models are put, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. Because of the importance of the validation of performance assessment models, the NRC staff has engaged in a program of research and international cooperation to seek progress in this important area. 2 figs., 16 refs

  8. Assessment of health surveys: fitting a multidimensional graded response model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Tiemensma, Jitske; Felt, John M

    The multidimensional graded response model, an item response theory (IRT) model, can be used to improve the assessment of surveys, even when sample sizes are restricted. Typically, health-based survey development utilizes classical statistical techniques (e.g. reliability and factor analysis). In a review of four prominent journals within the field of Health Psychology, we found that IRT-based models were used in less than 10% of the studies examining scale development or assessment. However, implementing IRT-based methods can provide more details about individual survey items, which is useful when determining the final item content of surveys. An example using a quality of life survey for Cushing's syndrome (CushingQoL) highlights the main components for implementing the multidimensional graded response model. Patients with Cushing's syndrome (n = 397) completed the CushingQoL. Results from the multidimensional graded response model supported a 2-subscale scoring process for the survey. All items were deemed as worthy contributors to the survey. The graded response model can accommodate unidimensional or multidimensional scales, be used with relatively lower sample sizes, and is implemented in free software (example code provided in online Appendix). Use of this model can help to improve the quality of health-based scales being developed within the Health Sciences.

  9. Modeling human intention formation for human reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.; Roth, E.M.; Pople, H. Jr.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic simulation capability for modeling how people form intentions to act in nuclear power plant emergency situations. This modeling tool, Cognitive Environment Simulation or CES, was developed based on techniques from artificial intelligence. It simulates the cognitive processes that determine situation assessment and intention formation. It can be used to investigate analytically what situations and factors lead to intention failures, what actions follow from intention failures (e.g. errors of omission, errors of commission, common mode errors), the ability to recover from errors or additional machine failures, and the effects of changes in the NPP person machine system. One application of the CES modeling environment is to enhance the measurement of the human contribution to risk in probabilistic risk assessment studies. (author)

  10. Connecting single-stock assessment models through correlated survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Nielsen, Anders; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

    2017-01-01

    times. We propose a simple alternative. In three case studies each with two stocks, we improve the single-stock models, as measured by Akaike information criterion, by adding correlation in the cohort survival. To limit the number of parameters, the correlations are parameterized through...... the corresponding partial correlations. We consider six models where the partial correlation matrix between stocks follows a band structure ranging from independent assessments to complex correlation structures. Further, a simulation study illustrates the importance of handling correlated data sufficiently...... by investigating the coverage of confidence intervals for estimated fishing mortality. The results presented will allow managers to evaluate stock statuses based on a more accurate evaluation of model output uncertainty. The methods are directly implementable for stocks with an analytical assessment and do...

  11. Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augutis, Juozas; Krikštolaitis, Ričardas; Pečiulytė, Sigita; Žutautaitė, Inga

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology for dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators. • Application of dynamic indicator model for energy system development scenarios. • Expert judgement involvement using Bayesian method. - Abstract: The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method

  12. An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

    2017-12-01

    Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

  13. Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

    2005-12-01

    We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

  14. Models for waste life cycle assessment: Review of technical assumptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentil, Emmanuel; Damgaard, Anders; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2010-01-01

    A number of waste life cycle assessment (LCA) models have been gradually developed since the early 1990s, in a number of countries, usually independently from each other. Large discrepancies in results have been observed among different waste LCA models, although it has also been shown that results...... from different LCA studies can be consistent. This paper is an attempt to identify, review and analyse methodologies and technical assumptions used in various parts of selected waste LCA models. Several criteria were identified, which could have significant impacts on the results......, such as the functional unit, system boundaries, waste composition and energy modelling. The modelling assumptions of waste management processes, ranging from collection, transportation, intermediate facilities, recycling, thermal treatment, biological treatment, and landfilling, are obviously critical when comparing...

  15. Assessing uncertainty in SRTM elevations for global flood modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawker, L. P.; Rougier, J.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    The SRTM DEM is widely used as the topography input to flood models in data-sparse locations. Understanding spatial error in the SRTM product is crucial in constraining uncertainty about elevations and assessing the impact of these upon flood prediction. Assessment of SRTM error was carried out by Rodriguez et al (2006), but this did not explicitly quantify the spatial structure of vertical errors in the DEM, and nor did it distinguish between errors over different types of landscape. As a result, there is a lack of information about spatial structure of vertical errors of the SRTM in the landscape that matters most to flood models - the floodplain. Therefore, this study attempts this task by comparing SRTM, an error corrected SRTM product (The MERIT DEM of Yamazaki et al., 2017) and near truth LIDAR elevations for 3 deltaic floodplains (Mississippi, Po, Wax Lake) and a large lowland region (the Fens, UK). Using the error covariance function, calculated by comparing SRTM elevations to the near truth LIDAR, perturbations of the 90m SRTM DEM were generated, producing a catalogue of plausible DEMs. This allows modellers to simulate a suite of plausible DEMs at any aggregated block size above native SRTM resolution. Finally, the generated DEM's were input into a hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta, built using the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, to assess how DEM error affects the hydrodynamics and inundation extent across the domain. The end product of this is an inundation map with the probability of each pixel being flooded based on the catalogue of DEMs. In a world of increasing computer power, but a lack of detailed datasets, this powerful approach can be used throughout natural hazard modelling to understand how errors in the SRTM DEM can impact the hazard assessment.

  16. GEMA3D - landscape modelling for dose assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard

    2010-08-01

    Concerns have been raised about SKB's interpretation of landscape objects in their radiological assessment models, specifically in relation to the size of the objects represented - leading to excessive volumetric dilution - and to the interpretation of local hydrology - leading to non-conservative hydrologic dilution. Developed from the Generic Ecosystem Modelling Approach, GEMA3D is an attempt to address these issues in a simple radiological assessment landscape model. In GEMA3D landscape features are model led as landscape elements (lels) based on a three compartment structure which is able to represent both terrestrial and aquatic lels. The area of the lels can be chosen to coincide with the bedrock fracture from which radionuclides are assumed to be released and the dispersion of radionuclides through out the landscape can be traced. Result indicate that released contaminants remain localised close to the release location and follow the main flow axis of the surface drainage system. This is true even for relatively weakly sorbing species. An interpretation of the size of landscape elements suitable to represent dilution in the biosphere for radiological assessment purposes is suggested, though the concept remains flexible. For reference purposes an agricultural area of one hectare is the baseline. The Quaternary deposits (QD) at the Forsmark site are only a few metres thick above the crystalline bedrock in which the planned repository for spent fuel will be constructed. The biosphere model is assumed to be the upper one metre of the QD. A further model has been implemented for advective - dispersive transport in the deeper QD. The effects of chemical zonation have been briefly investigated. The results confirm the importance of retention close to the release point from the bedrock and clearly indicate that there is a need for a better description of the hydrology of the QD on the spatial scales relevant to the lels required for radiological assessments

  17. GEMA3D - landscape modelling for dose assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard (Aleksandria Sciences (United Kingdom))

    2010-08-15

    Concerns have been raised about SKB's interpretation of landscape objects in their radiological assessment models, specifically in relation to the size of the objects represented - leading to excessive volumetric dilution - and to the interpretation of local hydrology - leading to non-conservative hydrologic dilution. Developed from the Generic Ecosystem Modelling Approach, GEMA3D is an attempt to address these issues in a simple radiological assessment landscape model. In GEMA3D landscape features are model led as landscape elements (lels) based on a three compartment structure which is able to represent both terrestrial and aquatic lels. The area of the lels can be chosen to coincide with the bedrock fracture from which radionuclides are assumed to be released and the dispersion of radionuclides through out the landscape can be traced. Result indicate that released contaminants remain localised close to the release location and follow the main flow axis of the surface drainage system. This is true even for relatively weakly sorbing species. An interpretation of the size of landscape elements suitable to represent dilution in the biosphere for radiological assessment purposes is suggested, though the concept remains flexible. For reference purposes an agricultural area of one hectare is the baseline. The Quaternary deposits (QD) at the Forsmark site are only a few metres thick above the crystalline bedrock in which the planned repository for spent fuel will be constructed. The biosphere model is assumed to be the upper one metre of the QD. A further model has been implemented for advective - dispersive transport in the deeper QD. The effects of chemical zonation have been briefly investigated. The results confirm the importance of retention close to the release point from the bedrock and clearly indicate that there is a need for a better description of the hydrology of the QD on the spatial scales relevant to the lels required for radiological assessments

  18. The Assessment of Patient Clinical Outcome: Advantages, Models, Features of an Ideal Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mou’ath Hourani

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The assessment of patient clinical outcome focuses on measuring various aspects of the health status of a patient who is under healthcare intervention. Patient clinical outcome assessment is a very significant process in the clinical field as it allows health care professionals to better understand the effectiveness of their health care programs and thus for enhancing the health care quality in general. It is thus vital that a high quality, informative review of current issues regarding the assessment of patient clinical outcome should be conducted. Aims & Objectives: 1 Summarizes the advantages of the assessment of patient clinical outcome; 2 reviews some of the existing patient clinical outcome assessment models namely: Simulation, Markov, Bayesian belief networks, Bayesian statistics and Conventional statistics, and Kaplan-Meier analysis models; and 3 demonstrates the desired features that should be fulfilled by a well-established ideal patient clinical outcome assessment model. Material & Methods: An integrative review of the literature has been performed using the Google Scholar to explore the field of patient clinical outcome assessment. Conclusion: This paper will directly support researchers, clinicians and health care professionals in their understanding of developments in the domain of the assessment of patient clinical outcome, thus enabling them to propose ideal assessment models.

  19. The Assessment of Patient Clinical Outcome: Advantages, Models, Features of an Ideal Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mou’ath Hourani

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The assessment of patient clinical outcome focuses on measuring various aspects of the health status of a patient who is under healthcare intervention. Patient clinical outcome assessment is a very significant process in the clinical field as it allows health care professionals to better understand the effectiveness of their health care programs and thus for enhancing the health care quality in general. It is thus vital that a high quality, informative review of current issues regarding the assessment of patient clinical outcome should be conducted. Aims & Objectives: 1 Summarizes the advantages of the assessment of patient clinical outcome; 2 reviews some of the existing patient clinical outcome assessment models namely: Simulation, Markov, Bayesian belief networks, Bayesian statistics and Conventional statistics, and Kaplan-Meier analysis models; and 3 demonstrates the desired features that should be fulfilled by a well-established ideal patient clinical outcome assessment model. Material & Methods: An integrative review of the literature has been performed using the Google Scholar to explore the field of patient clinical outcome assessment. Conclusion: This paper will directly support researchers, clinicians and health care professionals in their understanding of developments in the domain of the assessment of patient clinical outcome, thus enabling them to propose ideal assessment models.

  20. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  1. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masden, E.A.; Cook, A.S.C.P.

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  2. Validation of an improved anaplasma antibody cELISA kit for detection of anaplasma ovis antibody in domestic sheep at the U.S. Sheep Experiment Station in Dubois, ID

    Science.gov (United States)

    An accurate and simple-to-perform new version of a competitive ELISA (cELISA) kit that became commercially available in 2015 for testing of cattle for antibody to Anaplasma marginale was validated for detection of Anaplasma ovis antibody in domestic sheep. True positives and negatives were identifie...

  3. Modeling risk assessment for nuclear processing plants with LAVA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Tisinger, R.M.

    1988-01-01

    Using the Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (LAVA) methodology, the authors developed a model for assessing risks associated with nuclear processing plants. LAVA is a three-part systematic approach to risk assessment. The first part is the mathematical methodology; the second is the general personal computer-based software engine; and the third is the application itself. The methodology provides a framework for creating applications for the software engine to operate upon; all application-specific information is data. Using LAVA, the authors build knowledge-based expert systems to assess risks in applications systems comprising a subject system and a safeguards system. The subject system model is sets of threats, assets, and undesirable outcomes. The safeguards system model is sets of safeguards functions for protecting the assets from the threats by preventing or ameliorating the undesirable outcomes, sets of safeguards subfunctions whose performance determine whether the function is adequate and complete, and sets of issues, appearing as interactive questionnaires, whose measures (in both monetary and linguistic terms) define both the weaknesses in the safeguards system and the potential costs of an undesirable outcome occurring

  4. Radionuclide release rates from spent fuel for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtis, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    In a scenario of aqueous transport from a high-level radioactive waste repository, the concentration of radionuclides in water in contact with the waste constitutes the source term for transport models, and as such represents a fundamental component of all performance assessment models. Many laboratory experiments have been done to characterize release rates and understand processes influencing radionuclide release rates from irradiated nuclear fuel. Natural analogues of these waste forms have been studied to obtain information regarding the long-term stability of potential waste forms in complex natural systems. This information from diverse sources must be brought together to develop and defend methods used to define source terms for performance assessment models. In this manuscript examples of measures of radionuclide release rates from spent nuclear fuel or analogues of nuclear fuel are presented. Each example represents a very different approach to obtaining a numerical measure and each has its limitations. There is no way to obtain an unambiguous measure of this or any parameter used in performance assessment codes for evaluating the effects of processes operative over many millennia. The examples are intended to suggest by example that in the absence of the ability to evaluate accuracy and precision, consistency of a broadly based set of data can be used as circumstantial evidence to defend the choice of parameters used in performance assessments

  5. Training courses on integrated safety assessment modelling for waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallants, D.

    2007-01-01

    Near-surface or deep repositories of radioactive waste are being developed and evaluated all over the world. Also, existing repositories for low- and intermediate-level waste often need to be re-evaluated to extend their license or to obtain permission for final closure. The evaluation encompasses both a technical feasibility as well as a safety analysis. The long term safety is usually demonstrated by means of performance or safety assessment. For this purpose computer models are used that calculate the migration of radionuclides from the conditioned radioactive waste, through engineered barriers to the environment (groundwater, surface water, and biosphere). Integrated safety assessment modelling addresses all relevant radionuclide pathways from source to receptor (man), using in combination various computer codes in which the most relevant physical, chemical, mechanical, or even microbiological processes are mathematically described. SCK-CEN organizes training courses in Integrated safety assessment modelling that are intended for individuals who have either a controlling or supervising role within the national radwaste agencies or regulating authorities, or for technical experts that carry out the actual post-closure safety assessment for an existing or new repository. Courses are organised by the Department of Waste and Disposal

  6. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryti, R.T.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  7. Modelling requirements for future assessments based on FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs that are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs that form part of the natural evolution of the system and those, which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics, subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. The aim of this document is to present the methodology that has been developed for deriving modelling requirements and to illustrate the application of the methodology by

  8. Student Generated Rubrics: An Assessment Model To Help All Students Succeed. Assessment Bookshelf Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, Larry; Christinson, Jan

    The assessment model described in this guide was initially developed by a team of fifth-grade teachers who wrote objectives of integrating social studies and language arts. It helps the teacher guide students to create a task-specific rubric that they use to evaluate their own and peers' work. Teachers review the student evaluations, determine the…

  9. Industrial process system assessment: bridging process engineering and life cycle assessment through multiscale modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Industrial Process System Assessment (IPSA) methodology is a multiple step allocation approach for connecting information from the production line level up to the facility level and vice versa using a multiscale model of process systems. The allocation procedure assigns inpu...

  10. AgMIP: Next Generation Models and Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2014-12-01

    Next steps in developing next-generation crop models fall into several categories: significant improvements in simulation of important crop processes and responses to stress; extension from simplified crop models to complex cropping systems models; and scaling up from site-based models to landscape, national, continental, and global scales. Crop processes that require major leaps in understanding and simulation in order to narrow uncertainties around how crops will respond to changing atmospheric conditions include genetics; carbon, temperature, water, and nitrogen; ozone; and nutrition. The field of crop modeling has been built on a single crop-by-crop approach. It is now time to create a new paradigm, moving from 'crop' to 'cropping system.' A first step is to set up the simulation technology so that modelers can rapidly incorporate multiple crops within fields, and multiple crops over time. Then the response of these more complex cropping systems can be tested under different sustainable intensification management strategies utilizing the updated simulation environments. Model improvements for diseases, pests, and weeds include developing process-based models for important diseases, frameworks for coupling air-borne diseases to crop models, gathering significantly more data on crop impacts, and enabling the evaluation of pest management strategies. Most smallholder farming in the world involves integrated crop-livestock systems that cannot be represented by crop modeling alone. Thus, next-generation cropping system models need to include key linkages to livestock. Livestock linkages to be incorporated include growth and productivity models for grasslands and rangelands as well as the usual annual crops. There are several approaches for scaling up, including use of gridded models and development of simpler quasi-empirical models for landscape-scale analysis. On the assessment side, AgMIP is leading a community process for coordinated contributions to IPCC AR6

  11. Cost Model for Risk Assessment of Company Operation in Audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the approach to assessing the risk of company activities termination by building a cost model. This model gives auditors information on managers’ understanding of factors influencing change in the value of assets and liabilities, and the methods to identify it in more effective and reliable ways. Based on this information, the auditor can assess the adequacy of use of the assumption on continuity of company operation by management personnel when preparing financial statements. Financial uncertainty entails real manifestations of factors creating risks of the occurrence of costs, revenue losses due their manifestations, which in the long run can be a reason for termination of company operation, and, therefore, need to be foreseen in the auditor’s assessment of the adequacy of use of the continuity assumption when preparing financial statements by company management. The purpose of the study is to explore and develop a methodology for use of cost models to assess the risk of termination of company operation in audit. The issue of methodology for assessing the audit risk through analyzing methods for company valuation has not been dealt with. The review of methodologies for assessing the risks of termination of company operation in course of audit gives grounds for the conclusion that use of cost models can be an effective methodology for identification and assessment of such risks. The analysis of the above methods gives understanding of the existing system for company valuation, integrated into the management system, and the consequences of its use, i. e. comparison of the asset price data with the accounting data and the market value of the asset data. Overvalued or undervalued company assets may be a sign of future sale or liquidation of a company, which may signal on high probability of termination of company operation. A wrong choice or application of valuation methods can be indicative of the risk of non

  12. Fuel cycle assessment: A compendium of models, methodologies, and approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-07-01

    The purpose of this document is to profile analytical tools and methods which could be used in a total fuel cycle analysis. The information in this document provides a significant step towards: (1) Characterizing the stages of the fuel cycle. (2) Identifying relevant impacts which can feasibly be evaluated quantitatively or qualitatively. (3) Identifying and reviewing other activities that have been conducted to perform a fuel cycle assessment or some component thereof. (4) Reviewing the successes/deficiencies and opportunities/constraints of previous activities. (5) Identifying methods and modeling techniques/tools that are available, tested and could be used for a fuel cycle assessment.

  13. Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, M.

    2014-09-16

    © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models\\' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

  14. Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, M.; Katzfuss, M.; Hu, J.; Johnson, V. E.

    2014-01-01

    © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

  15. Assessing Local Model Adequacy in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Using the Partitioned Deviance Information Criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, David C.; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Waller, Lance A.

    2010-01-01

    Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data. PMID:21243121

  16. A multi-model assessment of terrestrial biosphere model data needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardella, A.; Cowdery, E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Desai, A. R.; Duveneck, M.; Fer, I.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; McCabe, T.; Minunno, F.; Raiho, A.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Thomas, A.; Walker, A.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models provide us with the means to simulate the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties. Going beyond direct observation and experimentation, models synthesize our current understanding of ecosystem processes and can give us insight on data needed to constrain model parameters. In previous work, we leveraged the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) to assess the contribution of different parameters to the uncertainty of the Ecosystem Demography model v2 (ED) model outputs across various North American biomes (Dietze et al., JGR-G, 2014). While this analysis identified key research priorities, the extent to which these priorities were model- and/or biome-specific was unclear. Furthermore, because the analysis only studied one model, we were unable to comment on the effect of variability in model structure to overall predictive uncertainty. Here, we expand this analysis to all biomes globally and a wide sample of models that vary in complexity: BioCro, CABLE, CLM, DALEC, ED2, FATES, G'DAY, JULES, LANDIS, LINKAGES, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, PRELES, SDGVM, SIPNET, and TEM. Prior to performing uncertainty analyses, model parameter uncertainties were assessed by assimilating all available trait data from the combination of the BETYdb and TRY trait databases, using an updated multivariate version of PEcAn's Hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis. Next, sensitivity analyses were performed for all models across a range of sites globally to assess sensitivities for a range of different outputs (GPP, ET, SH, Ra, NPP, Rh, NEE, LAI) at multiple time scales from the sub-annual to the decadal. Finally, parameter uncertainties and model sensitivities were combined to evaluate the fractional contribution of each parameter to the predictive uncertainty for a specific variable at a specific site and timescale. Facilitated by PEcAn's automated workflows, this analysis represents the broadest assessment of the sensitivities and uncertainties in terrestrial

  17. Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia spp. in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), fallow deer (Dama dama) and mouflon (Ovis musimon) in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauffmann, Melanie; Rehbein, Steffen; Hamel, Dietmar; Lutz, Walburga; Heddergott, Mike; Pfister, Kurt; Silaghi, Cornelia

    2017-02-01

    Infections with the tick-borne pathogens Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia spp. can cause febrile disease in several mammalian species, including humans. Wild ruminants in Europe are suggested to serve as reservoir hosts for particular strains or species of these pathogens. The aims of this study were to investigate the occurrence of A. phagocytophilum and Babesia spp. in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), fallow deer (Dama dama) and mouflon (Ovis musimon orientalis) in Germany, and the diversity and host association of genetic variants of A. phagocytophilum and Babesia species. From 2009 to 2010, 364 spleen samples from 153 roe deer, 43 fallow deer and 168 mouflon from 13 locations in Germany were tested for DNA of A. phagocytophilum and Babesia spp. by real-time PCR or conventional PCR, respectively. Variants of A. phagocytophilum were investigated with a nested PCR targeting the partial 16S rRNA gene, and species of piroplasms were identified by sequencing. DNA of A. phagocytophilum was detected in 303 (83.2%) samples: roe deer, 96.1% (147/153); fallow deer, 72.1% (31/43); and mouflon, 74.4% (125/168). Sequence analysis of 16S rRNA-PCR products revealed the presence of nine different genetic variants. DNA of Babesia spp. was found in 113 (31.0%) samples: roe deer, 62.8% (96/153); fallow deer, 16.3% (6/43); and mouflon, 6.5% (11/168). Babesia capreoli, Babesia sp. EU1 (referred to also as B. venatorum), B. odocoilei-like and a Theileria species were identified. Co-infections with A. phagocytophilum and Babesia spp. were detected in 30.0% of the animals which were tested positive for A. phagocytophilum and/or Babesia spp. Roe deer had a significantly higher percentage of co-infections (60.8%), followed by fallow deer (14.0%) and mouflon (6.5%). Thus, the results suggest that roe deer plays a key role in the endemic cycles of the pathogens investigated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Comparative Assessment of Nonlocal Continuum Solvent Models Exhibiting Overscreening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren Baihua

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Nonlocal continua have been proposed to offer a more realistic model for the electrostatic response of solutions such as the electrolyte solvents prominent in biology and electrochemistry. In this work, we review three nonlocal models based on the Landau-Ginzburg framework which have been proposed but not directly compared previously, due to different expressions of the nonlocal constitutive relationship. To understand the relationships between these models and the underlying physical insights from which they are derive, we situate these models into a single, unified Landau-Ginzburg framework. One of the models offers the capacity to interpret how temperature changes affect dielectric response, and we note that the variations with temperature are qualitatively reasonable even though predictions at ambient temperatures are not quantitatively in agreement with experiment. Two of these models correctly reproduce overscreening (oscillations between positive and negative polarization charge densities, and we observe small differences between them when we simulate the potential between parallel plates held at constant potential. These computations require reformulating the two models as coupled systems of local partial differential equations (PDEs, and we use spectral methods to discretize both problems. We propose further assessments to discriminate between the models, particularly in regards to establishing boundary conditions and comparing to explicit-solvent molecular dynamics simulations.

  19. Plasma-safety assessment model and safety analyses of ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honda, T.; Okazaki, T.; Bartels, H.-H.; Uckan, N.A.; Sugihara, M.; Seki, Y.

    2001-01-01

    A plasma-safety assessment model has been provided on the basis of the plasma physics database of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) to analyze events including plasma behavior. The model was implemented in a safety analysis code (SAFALY), which consists of a 0-D dynamic plasma model and a 1-D thermal behavior model of the in-vessel components. Unusual plasma events of ITER, e.g., overfueling, were calculated using the code and plasma burning is found to be self-bounded by operation limits or passively shut down due to impurity ingress from overheated divertor targets. Sudden transition of divertor plasma might lead to failure of the divertor target because of a sharp increase of the heat flux. However, the effects of the aggravating failure can be safely handled by the confinement boundaries. (author)

  20. Modeling issues associated with production reactor safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stack, D.W.; Thomas, W.R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes several Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) modeling issues that are related to the unique design and operation of the production reactors. The identification of initiating events and determination of a set of success criteria for the production reactors is of concern because of their unique design. The modeling of accident recovery must take into account the unique operation of these reactors. Finally, a more thorough search and evaluation of common-cause events is required to account for combinations of unique design features and operation that might otherwise not be included in the PSA. It is expected that most of these modeling issues also would be encountered when modeling some of the other more unique reactor and nonreactor facilities that are part of the DOE nuclear materials production complex. 9 refs., 2 figs

  1. PORFLOW Modeling Supporting The H-Tank Farm Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, J. M.; Flach, G. P.; Westbrook, M. L.

    2012-01-01

    Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the vadose and saturated zones have been conducted using the PORFLOW code in support of an overall Performance Assessment (PA) of the H-Tank Farm. This report provides technical detail on selected aspects of PORFLOW model development and describes the structure of the associated electronic files. The PORFLOW models for the H-Tank Farm PA, Rev. 1 were updated with grout, solubility, and inventory changes. The aquifer model was refined. In addition, a set of flow sensitivity runs were performed to allow flow to be varied in the related probabilistic GoldSim models. The final PORFLOW concentration values are used as input into a GoldSim dose calculator

  2. PORFLOW Modeling Supporting The H-Tank Farm Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, J. M.; Flach, G. P.; Westbrook, M. L.

    2012-08-31

    Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the vadose and saturated zones have been conducted using the PORFLOW code in support of an overall Performance Assessment (PA) of the H-Tank Farm. This report provides technical detail on selected aspects of PORFLOW model development and describes the structure of the associated electronic files. The PORFLOW models for the H-Tank Farm PA, Rev. 1 were updated with grout, solubility, and inventory changes. The aquifer model was refined. In addition, a set of flow sensitivity runs were performed to allow flow to be varied in the related probabilistic GoldSim models. The final PORFLOW concentration values are used as input into a GoldSim dose calculator.

  3. Tackling Biocomplexity with Meta-models for Species Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J. Nyhus

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe results of a multi-year effort to strengthen consideration of the human dimension into endangered species risk assessments and to strengthen research capacity to understand biodiversity risk assessment in the context of coupled human-natural systems. A core group of social and biological scientists have worked with a network of more than 50 individuals from four countries to develop a conceptual framework illustrating how human-mediated processes influence biological systems and to develop tools to gather, translate, and incorporate these data into existing simulation models. A central theme of our research focused on (1 the difficulties often encountered in identifying and securing diverse bodies of expertise and information that is necessary to adequately address complex species conservation issues; and (2 the development of quantitative simulation modeling tools that could explicitly link these datasets as a way to gain deeper insight into these issues. To address these important challenges, we promote a "meta-modeling" approach where computational links are constructed between discipline-specific models already in existence. In this approach, each model can function as a powerful stand-alone program, but interaction between applications is achieved by passing data structures describing the state of the system between programs. As one example of this concept, an integrated meta-model of wildlife disease and population biology is described. A goal of this effort is to improve science-based capabilities for decision making by scientists, natural resource managers, and policy makers addressing environmental problems in general, and focusing on biodiversity risk assessment in particular.

  4. Effect of pasture size on behavioural synchronization and spacing in German Blackface ewes (Ovis aries).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauschildt, Verena; Gerken, Martina

    2016-03-01

    This study aims to assess plot size related changes in spacing and behavioural synchronization in a herd of 14 German Blackface ewes kept on three different pasture sizes: S (126m(2)), M (1100m(2)), and L (11,200m(2)). In direct field observations, behaviour and nearest neighbour distance were recorded individually. Additionally, interindividual and nearest neighbour distances were derived from aerial photographs of the herd taken on plot sizes S and M. Nearest neighbour distances behaviour as intraindividual repeatability of the derived distances was highly significant (Kendall's W between 0.32 and 0.58; pbehavioural synchronization might be mainly attributed to the motivation for close proximity to any conspecific. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Safety and Immunogenicity of a Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae bacterin for domestic sheep (Ovis aries).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Jessie C; Lahmers, Kevin K; Barrington, George M; Parish, Steven M; Kilzer, Katherine; Baker, Katherine; Besser, Thomas E

    2014-01-01

    Mortality from epizootic pneumonia is hindering re-establishment of bighorn sheep populations in western North America. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, a primary agent of this disease, is frequently carried asymptomatically by the domestic sheep and goats that constitute the reservoir of this agent for transmission to bighorn sheep. Our long-term objective is to reduce the risk of M. ovipneumoniae infection of bighorn sheep; one approach to this objective is to control the pathogen in its reservoir hosts. The safety and immunogenicity of M. ovipneumoniae for domestic sheep was evaluated in three experimental immunization protocols: 1) live M. ovipneumoniae (50 ug protein); 2) killed M. ovipneumoniae (50 ug whole cell protein) in oil adjuvant; and 3) killed M. ovipneumoniae (250 ug whole cell protein) in oil adjuvant. Immunogenicity was assessed by two serum antibody measures: competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) (experiments 1-3) and serum growth inhibition (Experiment 3). Passive immunogenicity was also assessed in the third experiment using the same assays applied to blood samples obtained from the lambs of immunized ewes. Adverse reactions to immunization were generally minor, but local reactions were regularly observed at immunization sites with bacterins in oil adjuvants. No evidence of M. ovipneumoniae specific antibody responses were observed in the first or second experiments and no resistance to colonization was observed in the first experiment. However, the ewes in the third experiment developed strong cELISA serum antibody responses and significant serum M. ovipneumoniae inhibition activity, and these responses were passively transferred to their lambs. The results of these trials indicate that immunization with relatively large antigenic mass combined with an adjuvant is capable of inducing strong active antibody responses in ewes and passively immunizing lambs.

  6. Safety and Immunogenicity of a Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae bacterin for domestic sheep (Ovis aries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessie C Ziegler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mortality from epizootic pneumonia is hindering re-establishment of bighorn sheep populations in western North America. Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, a primary agent of this disease, is frequently carried asymptomatically by the domestic sheep and goats that constitute the reservoir of this agent for transmission to bighorn sheep. Our long-term objective is to reduce the risk of M. ovipneumoniae infection of bighorn sheep; one approach to this objective is to control the pathogen in its reservoir hosts. METHODS: The safety and immunogenicity of M. ovipneumoniae for domestic sheep was evaluated in three experimental immunization protocols: 1 live M. ovipneumoniae (50 ug protein; 2 killed M. ovipneumoniae (50 ug whole cell protein in oil adjuvant; and 3 killed M. ovipneumoniae (250 ug whole cell protein in oil adjuvant. Immunogenicity was assessed by two serum antibody measures: competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA (experiments 1-3 and serum growth inhibition (Experiment 3. Passive immunogenicity was also assessed in the third experiment using the same assays applied to blood samples obtained from the lambs of immunized ewes. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Adverse reactions to immunization were generally minor, but local reactions were regularly observed at immunization sites with bacterins in oil adjuvants. No evidence of M. ovipneumoniae specific antibody responses were observed in the first or second experiments and no resistance to colonization was observed in the first experiment. However, the ewes in the third experiment developed strong cELISA serum antibody responses and significant serum M. ovipneumoniae inhibition activity, and these responses were passively transferred to their lambs. The results of these trials indicate that immunization with relatively large antigenic mass combined with an adjuvant is capable of inducing strong active antibody responses in ewes and passively immunizing lambs.

  7. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  8. Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Stephen; Leirs, Herwig; Viljugrein, H.

    2007-01-01

    Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model...... examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate...

  9. Model-based pH monitor for sensor assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Schagen, Kim; Rietveld, Luuk; Veersma, Alex; Babuska, Robert

    2009-01-01

    Owing to the nature of the treatment processes, monitoring the processes based on individual online measurements is difficult or even impossible. However, the measurements (online and laboratory) can be combined with a priori process knowledge, using mathematical models, to objectively monitor the treatment processes and measurement devices. The pH measurement is a commonly used measurement at different stages in the drinking water treatment plant, although it is a unreliable instrument, requiring significant maintenance. It is shown that, using a grey-box model, it is possible to assess the measurement devices effectively, even if detailed information of the specific processes is unknown.

  10. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  11. Radiological assessments of land disposal options: recent model developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearn, H.S.; Pinner, A.V.; Hemming, C.R.

    1984-10-01

    This report describes progress in the development of methodologies and models for assessing the radiological impact of the disposal of low and intermediate level wastes by (i) shallow land burial in simple trenches (land 1), (ii) shallow land burial in engineered facilities (land 2), and (iii) emplacement in mined repositories or existing cavities (land 3/4). In particular the report describes wasteform leaching models, for unconditioned and cemented waste, the role of engineered barriers of a shallow land burial facility in reducing the magnitude of doses arising from groundwater contact and a detailed consideration of the interactions between radioactive carbon and various media. (author)

  12. A Fuzzy Knowledge Representation Model for Student Performance Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badie, Farshad

    Knowledge representation models based on Fuzzy Description Logics (DLs) can provide a foundation for reasoning in intelligent learning environments. While basic DLs are suitable for expressing crisp concepts and binary relationships, Fuzzy DLs are capable of processing degrees of truth/completene......Knowledge representation models based on Fuzzy Description Logics (DLs) can provide a foundation for reasoning in intelligent learning environments. While basic DLs are suitable for expressing crisp concepts and binary relationships, Fuzzy DLs are capable of processing degrees of truth....../completeness about vague or imprecise information. This paper tackles the issue of representing fuzzy classes using OWL2 in a dataset describing Performance Assessment Results of Students (PARS)....

  13. Probabilistic Modeling and Risk Assessment of Cable Icing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roldsgaard, Joan Hee

    This dissertation addresses the issues related to icing of structures with special emphasis on bridge cables. Cable supported bridges in cold climate suffers for ice accreting on the cables, this poses three different undesirable situations. Firstly the changed shape of the cable due to ice...... preliminary framework is modified for assessing the probability of occurrence of in-cloud and precipitation icing and its duration. Different probabilistic models are utilized for the representation of the meteorological variables and their appropriateness is evaluated both through goodness-of-fit tests...... are influencing the two icing mechanisms and their duration. The model is found to be more sensitive to changes in the discretization levels of the input variables. Thirdly the developed operational probabilistic framework for the assessment of the expected number of occurrences of ice/snow accretion on bridge...

  14. Development of tools and models for computational fracture assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talja, H.; Santaoja, K.

    1998-01-01

    The aim of the work presented in this paper has been to develop and test new computational tools and theoretically more sound methods for fracture mechanical analysis. The applicability of the engineering integrity assessment system MASI for evaluation of piping components has been extended. The most important motivation for the theoretical development have been the well-known fundamental limitations in the validity of J-integral, which limits its applicability in many important practical safety assessment cases. Examples are extensive plastic deformation, multimaterial structures and ascending loading paths (especially warm prestress, WPS). Further, the micromechanical Gurson model has been applied to several reactor pressure vessel materials. Special attention is paid to the transferability of Gurson model parameters from tensile test results to prediction of ductile failure behaviour of cracked structures. (author)

  15. A model for assessing social impacts of nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Atsuyuki; Kiyose, Ryohei

    1981-01-01

    A theoretical framework is given for assessing the social or environmental impacts of nuclear technology. A two-act problem concerning the incentive-penalty system is supposed to formulate the principle of ALAP. An observation plan to make decision on the problem is optimized with the Bayseian decision theory. The optimized solution resting on the amount of incentive or penalty is compared with an actual or practical plan. Then, by finding the indifference between the two plans, an impact is assessed in monetary terms. As regards the third step, the model does not provide the details since it is beyond the scope of the description. If there exists an actual plan, it can be easily compared with the results from this theory. If there does not or in the process of making it, its feasibility must be studied by another model or by different approaches. (J.P.N.)

  16. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  17. Model error assessment of burst capacity models for energy pipelines containing surface cracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Zijian; Zhang, Shenwei; Zhou, Wenxing

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops the probabilistic characteristics of the model errors associated with five well-known burst capacity models/methodologies for pipelines containing longitudinally-oriented external surface cracks, namely the Battelle and CorLAS™ models as well as the failure assessment diagram (FAD) methodologies recommended in the BS 7910 (2005), API RP579 (2007) and R6 (Rev 4, Amendment 10). A total of 112 full-scale burst test data for cracked pipes subjected internal pressure only were collected from the literature. The model error for a given burst capacity model is evaluated based on the ratios of the test to predicted burst pressures for the collected data. Analysis results suggest that the CorLAS™ model is the most accurate model among the five models considered and the Battelle, BS 7910, API RP579 and R6 models are in general conservative; furthermore, the API RP579 and R6 models are markedly more accurate than the Battelle and BS 7910 models. The results will facilitate the development of reliability-based structural integrity management of pipelines. - Highlights: • Model errors for five burst capacity models for pipelines containing surface cracks are characterized. • Basic statistics of the model errors are obtained based on test-to-predicted ratios. • Results will facilitate reliability-based design and assessment of energy pipelines

  18. Exploring harmonization between integrated assessment and capacity expansion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, G.; Brown, M.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Patel, P.; Wise, M. A.; Horing, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forward-looking quantitative models of the electric sector are extensively used to provide science-based strategic decision support to national, international and private-sector entities. Given that these models are used to inform a wide-range of stakeholders and influence policy decisions, it is vital to examine how the models' underlying data and structure influence their outcomes. We conduct several experiments harmonizing key model characteristics between ReEDS—an electric sector only model, and GCAM—an integrated assessment model—to understand how different degrees of harmonization impact model outcomes. ReEDS has high spatial, temporal, and process detail but lacks electricity demand elasticity and endogenous representations of other economic sectors, while GCAM has internally consistent representations of energy (including the electric sector), agriculture, and land-use systems but relatively aggregate representations of the factors influencing electric sector investments . We vary the degree of harmonization in electricity demand, fuel prices, technology costs and performance, and variable renewable energy resource characteristics. We then identify the prominent sources of divergence in key outputs (electricity capacity, generation, and price) across the models and study how the convergence between models can be improved with permutations of harmonized characteristics. The remaining inconsistencies help to establish how differences in the models' underlying data, construction, perspective, and methodology play into each model's outcome. There are three broad contributions of this work. First, our study provides a framework to link models with similar scope but different resolutions. Second, our work provides insight into how the harmonization of assumptions contributes to a unified and robust portrayal of the US electricity sector under various potential futures. Finally, our study enhances the understanding of the influence of structural uncertainty

  19. Modeling marine surface microplastic transport to assess optimal removal locations

    OpenAIRE

    Sherman, Peter; Van Sebille, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Marine plastic pollution is an ever-increasing problem that demands immediate mitigation and reduction plans. Here, a model based on satellite-tracked buoy observations and scaled to a large data set of observations on microplastic from surface trawls was used to simulate the transport of plastics floating on the ocean surface from 2015 to 2025, with the goal to assess the optimal marine microplastic removal locations for two scenarios: removing the most surface microplastic and reducing the ...

  20. A maturity model to assess organisational readiness for change

    OpenAIRE

    Zephir, Olivier; Minel, Stéphanie; Chapotot, Emilie

    2011-01-01

    International audience; The presented model which is developed in a European project allows project management teams to assess the organisational maturity to integrate new practices under structural or technological change. Maturity for change is defined here as workforce capability to operate effectively in transformed processes. This methodology is addressed to tackle organisational readiness to fulfil business objectives through technological and structural improvements. The tool integrate...

  1. Melodie: A global risk assessment model for radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewi, J.; Assouline, M.; Bareau, J.; Raimbault, P.

    1987-03-01

    The Institute of Protection and Nuclear Safety (IPSN), which is part of the French Atomic Energy Commission (C.E.A.) develops since 1984 in collaboration with different groups inside and outside the C.E.A. a computer model for risk assessment of nuclear waste repositories in deep geological formations. The main characteristics of the submodels, the data processing structure and some examples of applications are presented

  2. Advancing Integrated Systems Modelling Framework for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Halog

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The need for integrated methodological framework for sustainability assessment has been widely discussed and is urgent due to increasingly complex environmental system problems. These problems have impacts on ecosystems and human well-being which represent a threat to economic performance of countries and corporations. Integrated assessment crosses issues; spans spatial and temporal scales; looks forward and backward; and incorporates multi-stakeholder inputs. This study aims to develop an integrated methodology by capitalizing the complementary strengths of different methods used by industrial ecologists and biophysical economists. The computational methodology proposed here is systems perspective, integrative, and holistic approach for sustainability assessment which attempts to link basic science and technology to policy formulation. The framework adopts life cycle thinking methods—LCA, LCC, and SLCA; stakeholders analysis supported by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA; and dynamic system modelling. Following Pareto principle, the critical sustainability criteria, indicators and metrics (i.e., hotspots can be identified and further modelled using system dynamics or agent based modelling and improved by data envelopment analysis (DEA and sustainability network theory (SNT. The framework is being applied to development of biofuel supply chain networks. The framework can provide new ways of integrating knowledge across the divides between social and natural sciences as well as between critical and problem-solving research.

  3. Efficiency assessment models of higher education institution staff activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Dyusekeyev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper substantiates the necessity of improvement of university staff incentive system under the conditions of competition in the field of higher education, the necessity to develop a separate model for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the department heads. The authors analysed the methods for assessing production function of units. The advantage of the application of the methods to assess the effectiveness of border economic structures in the field of higher education is shown. The choice of the data envelopment analysis method to solve the problem has proved. The model for evaluating of university departments activity on the basis of the DEAmethodology has developed. On the basis of operating in Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries universities staff pay systems the structure of the criteria system for university staff activity evaluation has been designed. For clarification and specification of the departments activity efficiency criteria a strategic map has been developed that allowed us to determine the input and output parameters of the model. DEA-methodology using takes into account a large number of input and output parameters, increases the assessment objectivity by excluding experts, receives interim data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the evaluated object.

  4. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the

  5. Individual-based model for radiation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, O.

    A mathematical model is developed which enables one to predict the life span probability for mammals exposed to radiation. It relates statistical biometric functions with statistical and dynamic characteristics of an organism's critical system. To calculate the dynamics of the latter, the respective mathematical model is used too. This approach is applied to describe the effects of low level chronic irradiation on mice when the hematopoietic system (namely, thrombocytopoiesis) is the critical one. For identification of the joint model, experimental data on hematopoiesis in nonirradiated and irradiated mice, as well as on mortality dynamics of those in the absence of radiation are utilized. The life span probability and life span shortening predicted by the model agree with corresponding experimental data. Modeling results show the significance of ac- counting the variability of the individual radiosensitivity of critical system cells when estimating the radiation risk. These findings are corroborated by clinical data on persons involved in the elimination of the Chernobyl catastrophe after- effects. All this makes it feasible to use the model for radiation risk assessments for cosmonauts and astronauts on long-term missions such as a voyage to Mars or a lunar colony. In this case the model coefficients have to be determined by making use of the available data for humans. Scenarios for the dynamics of dose accumulation during space flights should also be taken into account.

  6. Modelling Tradescantia fluminensis to assess long term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex James

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a simple Poisson process model for the growth of Tradescantia fluminensis, an invasive plant species that inhibits the regeneration of native forest remnants in New Zealand. The model was parameterised with data derived from field experiments in New Zealand and then verified with independent data. The model gave good predictions which showed that its underlying assumptions are sound. However, this simple model had less predictive power for outputs based on variance suggesting that some assumptions were lacking. Therefore, we extended the model to include higher variability between plants thereby improving its predictions. This high variance model suggests that control measures that promote node death at the base of the plant or restrict the main stem growth rate will be more effective than those that reduce the number of branching events. The extended model forms a good basis for assessing the efficacy of various forms of control of this weed, including the recently-released leaf-feeding tradescantia leaf beetle (Neolema ogloblini.

  7. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  8. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  9. Sustainable BECCS pathways evaluated by an integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.

    2017-12-01

    Negative emissions technologies, particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), are key components of mitigation strategies in ambitious future socioeconomic scenarios analysed by integrated assessment models. Generally, scenarios aiming to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Also, in the context of Paris agreement which acknowledges "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century", RD&D for the negative emissions technologies in this decade has a crucial role for the possibility of early deployment of the technology. Because of the requirement of potentially extensive use of land and water for producing the bioenergy feedstock to get the anticipated level of gross negative emissions, researches on how to develop sustainable scenarios of BECCS is needed. Here, we present BECCS deployment scenarios that consider economically viable flow of bioenergy system including power generation and conversion process to liquid and gaseous fuels for transportation and heat with consideration of sustainable global biomass use. In the modelling process, detailed bioenergy representations, i.e. various feedstock and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment (IA) model GRAPE (Global Relationship Assessment to Protect the Environment). Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about assumed future agricultural yield between 'top-down' IA models and 'bottom-up' estimates, which would crucially affect the land-use pattern, we applied yields change of food and energy crops consistent with process-based biophysical crop models in consideration of changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable bioenergy and BECCS flow are evaluated in the scenarios targeting to keep global average

  10. The Gain-Loss Model: A Probabilistic Skill Multimap Model for Assessing Learning Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robusto, Egidio; Stefanutti, Luca; Anselmi, Pasquale

    2010-01-01

    Within the theoretical framework of knowledge space theory, a probabilistic skill multimap model for assessing learning processes is proposed. The learning process of a student is modeled as a function of the student's knowledge and of an educational intervention on the attainment of specific skills required to solve problems in a knowledge…

  11. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  12. Modeling exposure to persistent chemicals in hazard and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E; McLachlan, Michael S; Arnot, Jon A; Macleod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E; Wania, Frank

    2009-10-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not, thus far, been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared for evaluating the significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POP) and persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals in the environment. The goal of this publication is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include 1) benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk; 2) directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota, and humans to provide information to complement measurements or where measurements are not available or are limited; 3) to identify the key processes and chemical or environmental parameters that determine the exposure, thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile; and 4) forecasting future time trends, including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and

  13. Surrogacy assessment using principal stratification and a Gaussian copula model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, Asc; Taylor, Jmg; Elliott, M R

    2017-02-01

    In clinical trials, a surrogate outcome ( S) can be measured before the outcome of interest ( T) and may provide early information regarding the treatment ( Z) effect on T. Many methods of surrogacy validation rely on models for the conditional distribution of T given Z and S. However, S is a post-randomization variable, and unobserved, simultaneous predictors of S and T may exist, resulting in a non-causal interpretation. Frangakis and Rubin developed the concept of principal surrogacy, stratifying on the joint distribution of the surrogate marker under treatment and control to assess the association between the causal effects of treatment on the marker and the causal effects of treatment on the clinical outcome. Working within the principal surrogacy framework, we address the scenario of an ordinal categorical variable as a surrogate for a censored failure time true endpoint. A Gaussian copula model is used to model the joint distribution of the potential outcomes of T, given the potential outcomes of S. Because the proposed model cannot be fully identified from the data, we use a Bayesian estimation approach with prior distributions consistent with reasonable assumptions in the surrogacy assessment setting. The method is applied to data from a colorectal cancer clinical trial, previously analyzed by Burzykowski et al.

  14. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  15. Improving treatment outcome assessment in a mouse tuberculosis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mourik, Bas C; Svensson, Robin J; de Knegt, Gerjo J; Bax, Hannelore I; Verbon, Annelies; Simonsson, Ulrika S H; de Steenwinkel, Jurriaan E M

    2018-04-09

    Preclinical treatment outcome evaluation of tuberculosis (TB) occurs primarily in mice. Current designs compare relapse rates of different regimens at selected time points, but lack information about the correlation between treatment length and treatment outcome, which is required to efficiently estimate a regimens' treatment-shortening potential. Therefore we developed a new approach. BALB/c mice were infected with a Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing genotype strain and were treated with rifapentine-pyrazinamide-isoniazid-ethambutol (R p ZHE), rifampicin-pyrazinamide-moxifloxacin-ethambutol (RZME) or rifampicin-pyrazinamide-moxifloxacin-isoniazid (RZMH). Treatment outcome was assessed in n = 3 mice after 9 different treatment lengths between 2-6 months. Next, we created a mathematical model that best fitted the observational data and used this for inter-regimen comparison. The observed data were best described by a sigmoidal E max model in favor over linear or conventional E max models. Estimating regimen-specific parameters showed significantly higher curative potentials for RZME and R p ZHE compared to RZMH. In conclusion, we provide a new design for treatment outcome evaluation in a mouse TB model, which (i) provides accurate tools for assessment of the relationship between treatment length and predicted cure, (ii) allows for efficient comparison between regimens and (iii) adheres to the reduction and refinement principles of laboratory animal use.

  16. Arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposit model: Chapter D in Mineral deposit models for resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Ryan D.; Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Piatak, Nadine M.; Seal, Robert R.

    2012-01-01

    This report provides a descriptive model for arc-related porphyry molybdenum deposits. Presented within are geological, geochemical, and mineralogical characteristics that differentiate this deposit type from porphyry copper and alkali-feldspar rhyolite-granite porphyry molybdenum deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey's effort to update existing mineral deposit models spurred this research, which is intended to supplement previously published models for this deposit type that help guide mineral-resource and mineral-environmental assessments.

  17. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  18. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  19. Evaluating intersectoral collaboration: a model for assessment by service users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bengt Ahgren

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: DELTA was launched as a project in 1997 to improve intersectoral collaboration in the rehabilitation field. In 2005 DELTA was transformed into a local association for financial co-ordination between the institutions involved. Based on a study of the DELTA service users, the purpose of this article is to develop and to validate a model that can be used to assess the integration of welfare services from the perspective of the service users. Theory: The foundation of integration is a well functioning structure of integration. Without such structural conditions, it is difficult to develop a process of integration that combines the resources and competences of the collaborating organisations to create services advantageous for the service users. In this way, both the structure and the process will contribute to the outcome of integration. Method: The study was carried out as a retrospective cross-sectional survey during two weeks, including all the current service users of DELTA. The questionnaire contained 32 questions, which were derived from the theoretical framework and research on service users, capturing perceptions of integration structure, process and outcome. Ordinal scales and open questions where used for the assessment. Results: The survey had a response rate of 82% and no serious biases of the results were detected. The study shows that the users of the rehabilitation services perceived the services as well integrated, relevant and adapted to their needs. The assessment model was tested for reliability and validity and a few modifications were suggested. Some key measurement themes were derived from the study. Conclusion: The model developed in this study is an important step towards an assessment of service integration from the perspective of the service users. It needs to be further refined, however, before it can be used in other evaluations of collaboration in the provision of integrated welfare services.

  20. Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

    1999-05-01

    Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

  1. Habitat hydraulic models - a tool for Danish stream quality assessment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    and hydromorphological and chemical characteristics has to be enlightened (EUROPA, 2005). This study links catchment hydrology, stream discharge and physical habitat in a small Danish stream, the stream Ledreborg, and discusses the utility of habitat hydraulic models in relation to the present criteria and methods used......).  Hydromorphological conditions in the stream are measured through field study, using a habitat mapping approach and modelled using a habitat hydraulic model (RHYHABSIM). Using RHYHABSIM and both "site-specific" and general HSI's, Weighted Usable Area (WUA) for the trout population at different discharges is assessed...... and differences between simulated WUA using "site-specific" and general habitat preferences are discussed. In RHYHABSIM it is possible to use two different approaches to investigate the hydromorphological conditions in a river, the habitat mapping approach used in this project and the representative reach...

  2. Permafrost Degradation Risk Zone Assessment using Simulation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daanen, R.P.; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Marchenko, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures...... to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined...... as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland...

  3. Application of a leakage model to assess exfiltration from sewers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpf, C; Krebs, P

    2005-01-01

    The exfiltration of wastewater from sewer systems in urban areas causes a deterioration of soil and possibly groundwater quality. Beside the simulation of transport and degradation processes in the unsaturated zone and in the aquifer the analysis of the potential impact requires the estimation of quantity and temporal variation of wastewater exfiltration. Exfiltration can be assessed by the application of a leakage model. The hydrological approach was originally developed to simulate the interactions between the groundwater and surface water, it was adapted to allow for modelling of interactions between groundwater and sewer system. In order to approximate the exfiltration specific model parameters infiltration specific parameters were used as a basis. Scenario analysis of the exfiltration in the City of Dresden from 1997 to 1999 and during the flood event in August 2002 shows the variation and the extent of exfiltration rates.

  4. Primary cell culture of LHRH neurones from embryonic olfactory placode in the sheep (Ovis aries).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duittoz, A H; Batailler, M; Caldani, M

    1997-09-01

    The aim of this study was to establish an in vitro model of ovine luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) neurones. Olfactory placodes from 26 day-old sheep embryos (E26) were used for explant culture. Cultures were maintained successfully up to 35 days, but were usually used at 17 days for immunocytochemistry. LHRH and neuronal markers such as neurofilament (NF) were detected by immunocytochemistry within and/or outside the explant. Three main types of LHRH positive cells are described: (1) neuroblastic LHRH and NF immunoreactive cells with round cell body and very short neurites found mainly within the explant, (2) migrating LHRH bipolar neurones with an fusiform cell body, found outside the explant, (3) network LHRH neuron, bipolar or multipolar with long neurites connecting other LHRH neurons. Cell morphology was very similar to that which has been described in the adult sheep brain. These results strongly suggest that LHRH neurones in the sheep originate from the olfactory placode. This mode may represent a useful tool to study LHRH neurones directly in the sheep.

  5. Assessment of realizability constraints in v2-f turbulence models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sveningsson, A.; Davidson, L.

    2004-01-01

    The use of the realizability constraint in v 2 -f turbulence models is assessed by computing a stator vane passage flow. In this flow the stagnation region is large and it is shown that the time scale bound suggested by [Int. J. Heat Fluid Flow 17 (1995) 89] is well suited to prevent unphysical growth of turbulence kinetic energy. However, this constraint causes numerical instabilities when used in the equation for the relaxation parameter, f. It is also shown that the standard use of the realizability constraint in the v 2 -f model is inconsistent and some modifications are suggested. These changes of the v 2 -f model are examined and shown to have negligible effect on the overall performance of the v 2 -f model. In this work two different versions of the v 2 -f model are investigated and the results obtained are compared with experimental data. The model on a form similar to that originally suggested by Durbin (e.g. [AIAA J. 33 (1995) 659]) produced the overall best agreement with stator vane heat transfer data

  6. ACCURACY ASSESSMENT OF RECENT GLOBAL OCEAN TIDE MODELS AROUND ANTARCTICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lei

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8 is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  7. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Nicholas D; Marquart, Hans; Christopher, Yvette; Laitinen, Juha; VAN Hemmen, Joop J

    2006-07-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of new measurements of dermal exposure together with detailed contextual information. This article describes the development of a set of generic task-based models capable of predicting potential dermal exposure to both solids and liquids in a wide range of situations. To facilitate modelling of the wide variety of dermal exposure situations six separate models were made for groupings of exposure scenarios called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units). These task-based groupings cluster exposure scenarios with regard to the expected routes of dermal exposure and the expected influence of exposure determinants. Within these groupings linear mixed effect models were used to estimate the influence of various exposure determinants and to estimate components of variance. The models predict median potential dermal exposure rates for the hands and the rest of the body from the values of relevant exposure determinants. These rates are expressed as mg or microl product per minute. Using these median potential dermal exposure rates and an accompanying geometric standard deviation allows a range of exposure percentiles to be calculated.

  8. Dose Assessment Model for Chronic Atmospheric Releases of Tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Huifang; Yao Rentai

    2010-01-01

    An improved dose assessment model for chronic atmospheric releases of tritium was proposed. The proposed model explicitly considered two chemical forms of tritium.It was based on conservative assumption of transfer of tritiated water (HTO) from air to concentration of HTO and organic beam tritium (OBT) in vegetable and animal products.The concentration of tritium in plant products was calculated based on considering dividedly leafy plant and not leafy plant, meanwhile the concentration contribution of tritium in the different plants from the tritium in soil was taken into account.Calculating the concentration of HTO in animal products, average water fraction of animal products and the average weighted tritium concentration of ingested water based on the fraction of water supplied by each source were considered,including skin absorption, inhalation, drinking water and food.Calculating the annual doses, the ingestion doses were considered, at the same time the contribution of inhalation and skin absorption to the dose was considered. Concentrations in foodstuffs and dose of annual adult calculated with the specific activity model, NEWTRI model and the model proposed by the paper were compared. The results indicate that the model proposed by the paper can predict accurately tritium doses through the food chain from chronic atmospheric releases. (authors)

  9. Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

  10. USING COPULAS TO MODEL DEPENDENCE IN SIMULATION RISK ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana L. Kelly

    2007-11-01

    Typical engineering systems in applications with high failure consequences such as nuclear reactor plants often employ redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore risk. However, it has long been recognized that dependencies exist in these redundant and diverse systems. Some dependencies, such as common sources of electrical power, are typically captured in the logic structure of the risk model. Others, usually referred to as intercomponent dependencies, are treated implicitly by introducing one or more statistical parameters into the model. Such common-cause failure models have limitations in a simulation environment. In addition, substantial subjectivity is associated with parameter estimation for these models. This paper describes an approach in which system performance is simulated by drawing samples from the joint distributions of dependent variables. The approach relies on the notion of a copula distribution, a notion which has been employed by the actuarial community for ten years or more, but which has seen only limited application in technological risk assessment. The paper also illustrates how equipment failure data can be used in a Bayesian framework to estimate the parameter values in the copula model. This approach avoids much of the subjectivity required to estimate parameters in traditional common-cause failure models. Simulation examples are presented for failures in time. The open-source software package R is used to perform the simulations. The open-source software package WinBUGS is used to perform the Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.

  11. Accuracy Assessment of Recent Global Ocean Tide Models around Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, J.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Ke, H.; Zhang, Q.; Li, W.

    2017-09-01

    Due to the coverage limitation of T/P-series altimeters, the lack of bathymetric data under large ice shelves, and the inaccurate definitions of coastlines and grounding lines, the accuracy of ocean tide models around Antarctica is poorer than those in deep oceans. Using tidal measurements from tide gauges, gravimetric data and GPS records, the accuracy of seven state-of-the-art global ocean tide models (DTU10, EOT11a, GOT4.8, FES2012, FES2014, HAMTIDE12, TPXO8) is assessed, as well as the most widely-used conventional model FES2004. Four regions (Antarctic Peninsula region, Amery ice shelf region, Filchner-Ronne ice shelf region and Ross ice shelf region) are separately reported. The standard deviations of eight main constituents between the selected models are large in polar regions, especially under the big ice shelves, suggesting that the uncertainty in these regions remain large. Comparisons with in situ tidal measurements show that the most accurate model is TPXO8, and all models show worst performance in Weddell sea and Filchner-Ronne ice shelf regions. The accuracy of tidal predictions around Antarctica is gradually improving.

  12. Modeling logistic performance in quantitative microbial risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke

    2010-01-01

    In quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is modeled and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of risk distributions. Because food safety risks are generally very small, it is crucial to model the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be modeled by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event modeling. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event modeling in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event modeling in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety.

  13. Literature Review and Assessment of Plant and Animal Transfer Factors Used in Performance Assessment Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, David E.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Sasser, Lyle B.

    2003-01-01

    A literature review and assessment was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to update information on plant and animal radionuclide transfer factors used in performance-assessment modeling. A group of 15 radionuclides was included in this review and assessment. The review is composed of four main sections, not including the Introduction. Section 2.0 provides a review of the critically important issue of physicochemical speciation and geochemistry of the radionuclides in natural soil-water systems as it relates to the bioavailability of the radionuclides. Section 3.0 provides an updated review of the parameters of importance in the uptake of radionuclides by plants, including root uptake via the soil-groundwater system and foliar uptake due to overhead irrigation. Section 3.0 also provides a compilation of concentration ratios (CRs) for soil-to-plant uptake for the 15 selected radionuclides. Section 4.0 provides an updated review on radionuclide uptake data for animal products related to absorption, homeostatic control, approach to equilibration, chemical and physical form, diet, and age. Compiled transfer coefficients are provided for cow's milk, sheep's milk, goat's milk, beef, goat meat, pork, poultry, and eggs. Section 5.0 discusses the use of transfer coefficients in soil, plant, and animal modeling using regulatory models for evaluating radioactive waste disposal or decommissioned sites. Each section makes specific suggestions for future research in its area.

  14. Literature Review and Assessment of Plant and Animal Transfer Factors Used in Performance Assessment Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, David E.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Sasser, Lyle B.

    2003-07-20

    A literature review and assessment was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to update information on plant and animal radionuclide transfer factors used in performance-assessment modeling. A group of 15 radionuclides was included in this review and assessment. The review is composed of four main sections, not including the Introduction. Section 2.0 provides a review of the critically important issue of physicochemical speciation and geochemistry of the radionuclides in natural soil-water systems as it relates to the bioavailability of the radionuclides. Section 3.0 provides an updated review of the parameters of importance in the uptake of radionuclides by plants, including root uptake via the soil-groundwater system and foliar uptake due to overhead irrigation. Section 3.0 also provides a compilation of concentration ratios (CRs) for soil-to-plant uptake for the 15 selected radionuclides. Section 4.0 provides an updated review on radionuclide uptake data for animal products related to absorption, homeostatic control, approach to equilibration, chemical and physical form, diet, and age. Compiled transfer coefficients are provided for cow’s milk, sheep’s milk, goat’s milk, beef, goat meat, pork, poultry, and eggs. Section 5.0 discusses the use of transfer coefficients in soil, plant, and animal modeling using regulatory models for evaluating radioactive waste disposal or decommissioned sites. Each section makes specific suggestions for future research in its area.

  15. A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be

  16. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  17. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

  18. Development of good modelling practice for phsiologically based pharmacokinetic models for use in risk assessment: The first steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    The increasing use of tissue dosimetry estimated using pharmacokinetic models in chemical risk assessments in multiple countries necessitates the need to develop internationally recognized good modelling practices. These practices would facilitate sharing of models and model eva...

  19. Psychometric model for safety culture assessment in nuclear research facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nascimento, C.S. do; Andrade, D.A.; Mesquita, R.N. de

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A psychometric model to evaluate ‘safety climate’ at nuclear research facilities. • The model presented evidences of good psychometric qualities. • The model was applied to nuclear research facilities in Brazil. • Some ‘safety culture’ weaknesses were detected in the assessed organization. • A potential tool to develop safety management programs in nuclear facilities. - Abstract: A safe and reliable operation of nuclear power plants depends not only on technical performance, but also on the people and on the organization. Organizational factors have been recognized as the main causal mechanisms of accidents by research organizations through USA, Europe and Japan. Deficiencies related with these factors reveal weaknesses in the organization’s safety culture. A significant number of instruments to assess the safety culture based on psychometric models that evaluate safety climate through questionnaires, and which are based on reliability and validity evidences, have been published in health and ‘safety at work’ areas. However, there are few safety culture assessment instruments with these characteristics (reliability and validity) available on nuclear literature. Therefore, this work proposes an instrument to evaluate, with valid and reliable measures, the safety climate of nuclear research facilities. The instrument was developed based on methodological principles applied to research modeling and its psychometric properties were evaluated by a reliability analysis and validation of content, face and construct. The instrument was applied to an important nuclear research organization in Brazil. This organization comprises 4 research reactors and many nuclear laboratories. The survey results made possible a demographic characterization and the identification of some possible safety culture weaknesses and pointing out potential areas to be improved in the assessed organization. Good evidence of reliability with Cronbach's alpha

  20. Psychometric model for safety culture assessment in nuclear research facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nascimento, C.S. do, E-mail: claudio.souza@ctmsp.mar.mil.br [Centro Tecnológico da Marinha em São Paulo (CTMSP), Av. Professor Lineu Prestes 2468, 05508-000 São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Andrade, D.A., E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN – SP), Av. Professor Lineu Prestes 2242, 05508-000 São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Mesquita, R.N. de, E-mail: rnavarro@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN – SP), Av. Professor Lineu Prestes 2242, 05508-000 São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-04-01

    Highlights: • A psychometric model to evaluate ‘safety climate’ at nuclear research facilities. • The model presented evidences of good psychometric qualities. • The model was applied to nuclear research facilities in Brazil. • Some ‘safety culture’ weaknesses were detected in the assessed organization. • A potential tool to develop safety management programs in nuclear facilities. - Abstract: A safe and reliable operation of nuclear power plants depends not only on technical performance, but also on the people and on the organization. Organizational factors have been recognized as the main causal mechanisms of accidents by research organizations through USA, Europe and Japan. Deficiencies related with these factors reveal weaknesses in the organization’s safety culture. A significant number of instruments to assess the safety culture based on psychometric models that evaluate safety climate through questionnaires, and which are based on reliability and validity evidences, have been published in health and ‘safety at work’ areas. However, there are few safety culture assessment instruments with these characteristics (reliability and validity) available on nuclear literature. Therefore, this work proposes an instrument to evaluate, with valid and reliable measures, the safety climate of nuclear research facilities. The instrument was developed based on methodological principles applied to research modeling and its psychometric properties were evaluated by a reliability analysis and validation of content, face and construct. The instrument was applied to an important nuclear research organization in Brazil. This organization comprises 4 research reactors and many nuclear laboratories. The survey results made possible a demographic characterization and the identification of some possible safety culture weaknesses and pointing out potential areas to be improved in the assessed organization. Good evidence of reliability with Cronbach's alpha

  1. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  2. Assessing women's lacrosse head impacts using finite element modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J Michio; Hoshizaki, T Blaine; Gilchrist, Michael D

    2018-04-01

    Recently studies have assessed the ability of helmets to reduce peak linear and rotational acceleration for women's lacrosse head impacts. However, such measures have had low correlation with injury. Maximum principal strain interprets loading curves which provide better injury prediction than peak linear and rotational acceleration, especially in compliant situations which create low magnitude accelerations but long impact durations. The purpose of this study was to assess head and helmet impacts in women's lacrosse using finite element modelling. Linear and rotational acceleration loading curves from women's lacrosse impacts to a helmeted and an unhelmeted Hybrid III headform were input into the University College Dublin Brain Trauma Model. The finite element model was used to calculate maximum principal strain in the cerebrum. The results demonstrated for unhelmeted impacts, falls and ball impacts produce higher maximum principal strain values than stick and shoulder collisions. The strain values for falls and ball impacts were found to be within the range of concussion and traumatic brain injury. The results also showed that men's lacrosse helmets reduced maximum principal strain for follow-through slashing, falls and ball impacts. These findings are novel and demonstrate that for high risk events, maximum principal strain can be reduced by implementing the use of helmets if the rules of the sport do not effectively manage such situations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A Zebrafish Heart Failure Model for Assessing Therapeutic Agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiao-Yu; Wu, Si-Qi; Guo, Sheng-Ya; Yang, Hua; Xia, Bo; Li, Ping; Li, Chun-Qi

    2018-03-20

    Heart failure is a leading cause of death and the development of effective and safe therapeutic agents for heart failure has been proven challenging. In this study, taking advantage of larval zebrafish, we developed a zebrafish heart failure model for drug screening and efficacy assessment. Zebrafish at 2 dpf (days postfertilization) were treated with verapamil at a concentration of 200 μM for 30 min, which were determined as optimum conditions for model development. Tested drugs were administered into zebrafish either by direct soaking or circulation microinjection. After treatment, zebrafish were randomly selected and subjected to either visual observation and image acquisition or record videos under a Zebralab Blood Flow System. The therapeutic effects of drugs on zebrafish heart failure were quantified by calculating the efficiency of heart dilatation, venous congestion, cardiac output, and blood flow dynamics. All 8 human heart failure therapeutic drugs (LCZ696, digoxin, irbesartan, metoprolol, qiliqiangxin capsule, enalapril, shenmai injection, and hydrochlorothiazide) showed significant preventive and therapeutic effects on zebrafish heart failure (p failure model developed and validated in this study could be used for in vivo heart failure studies and for rapid screening and efficacy assessment of preventive and therapeutic drugs.

  4. Model assessment using a multi-metric ranking technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, P. J.; Lau, Y.; Alaka, G.; Marks, F.

    2017-12-01

    Validation comparisons of multiple models presents challenges when skill levels are similar, especially in regimes dominated by the climatological mean. Assessing skill separation will require advanced validation metrics and identifying adeptness in extreme events, but maintain simplicity for management decisions. Flexibility for operations is also an asset. This work postulates a weighted tally and consolidation technique which ranks results by multiple types of metrics. Variables include absolute error, bias, acceptable absolute error percentages, outlier metrics, model efficiency, Pearson correlation, Kendall's Tau, reliability Index, multiplicative gross error, and root mean squared differences. Other metrics, such as root mean square difference and rank correlation were also explored, but removed when the information was discovered to be generally duplicative to other metrics. While equal weights are applied, weights could be altered depending for preferred metrics. Two examples are shown comparing ocean models' currents and tropical cyclone products, including experimental products. The importance of using magnitude and direction for tropical cyclone track forecasts instead of distance, along-track, and cross-track are discussed. Tropical cyclone intensity and structure prediction are also assessed. Vector correlations are not included in the ranking process, but found useful in an independent context, and will be briefly reported.

  5. An ethical assessment model for digital disease detection technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denecke, Kerstin

    2017-09-20

    Digital epidemiology, also referred to as digital disease detection (DDD), successfully provided methods and strategies for using information technology to support infectious disease monitoring and surveillance or understand attitudes and concerns about infectious diseases. However, Internet-based research and social media usage in epidemiology and healthcare pose new technical, functional and formal challenges. The focus of this paper is on the ethical issues to be considered when integrating digital epidemiology with existing practices. Taking existing ethical guidelines and the results from the EU project M-Eco and SORMAS as starting point, we develop an ethical assessment model aiming at providing support in identifying relevant ethical concerns in future DDD projects. The assessment model has four dimensions: user, application area, data source and methodology. The model supports in becoming aware, identifying and describing the ethical dimensions of DDD technology or use case and in identifying the ethical issues on the technology use from different perspectives. It can be applied in an interdisciplinary meeting to collect different viewpoints on a DDD system even before the implementation starts and aims at triggering discussions and finding solutions for risks that might not be acceptable even in the development phase. From the answers, ethical issues concerning confidence, privacy, data and patient security or justice may be judged and weighted.

  6. Accuracy of virtual models in the assessment of maxillary defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamburoglu, Kivanc; Kursun, Sebnem; Kilic, Cenk; Eozen, Tuncer

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to assess the reliability of measurements performed on three-dimensional (3D) virtual models of maxillary defects obtained using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) and 3D optical scanning. Mechanical cavities simulating maxillary defects were prepared on the hard palate of nine cadavers. Images were obtained using a CBCT unit at three different fields-of-views (FOVs) and voxel sizes: 1) 60 X 60 mm FOV, 0.125 mm 3 (FOV 60 ); 2) 80 X 80 mm FOV, 0.160 mm 3 (FOV 80 ); and 3) 100 X 100 mm FOV, 0.250 mm 3 (FOV 100 ). Superimposition of the images was performed using software called VRMesh Design. Automated volume measurements were conducted, and differences between surfaces were demonstrated. Silicon impressions obtained from the defects were also scanned with a 3D optical scanner. Virtual models obtained using VRMesh Design were compared with impressions obtained by scanning silicon models. Gold standard volumes of the impression models were then compared with CBCT and 3D scanner measurements. Further, the general linear model was used, and the significance was set to p=0.05. A comparison of the results obtained by the observers and methods revealed the p values to be smaller than 0.05, suggesting that the measurement variations were caused by both methods and observers along with the different cadaver specimens used. Further, the 3D scanner measurements were closer to the gold standard measurements when compared to the CBCT measurements. In the assessment of artificially created maxillary defects, the 3D scanner measurements were more accurate than the CBCT measurements.

  7. Accuracy of virtual models in the assessment of maxillary defects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamburoglu, Kivanc [Dept. of Dentomaxillofacial Radiology, Faculty of Dentistry, Ankara University, Ankara (Turkmenistan); Kursun, Sebnem [Division of Dentomaxillofacial Radiology, Ministry of Health, Oral and Dental Health Center, Bolu (Turkmenistan); Kilic, Cenk; Eozen, Tuncer [Gealhane Military Medical Academy, Ankara, (Turkmenistan)

    2015-03-15

    This study aimed to assess the reliability of measurements performed on three-dimensional (3D) virtual models of maxillary defects obtained using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) and 3D optical scanning. Mechanical cavities simulating maxillary defects were prepared on the hard palate of nine cadavers. Images were obtained using a CBCT unit at three different fields-of-views (FOVs) and voxel sizes: 1) 60 X 60 mm FOV, 0.125 mm{sup 3} (FOV{sub 60}); 2) 80 X 80 mm FOV, 0.160 mm{sup 3} (FOV{sub 80}); and 3) 100 X 100 mm FOV, 0.250 mm{sup 3} (FOV{sub 100}). Superimposition of the images was performed using software called VRMesh Design. Automated volume measurements were conducted, and differences between surfaces were demonstrated. Silicon impressions obtained from the defects were also scanned with a 3D optical scanner. Virtual models obtained using VRMesh Design were compared with impressions obtained by scanning silicon models. Gold standard volumes of the impression models were then compared with CBCT and 3D scanner measurements. Further, the general linear model was used, and the significance was set to p=0.05. A comparison of the results obtained by the observers and methods revealed the p values to be smaller than 0.05, suggesting that the measurement variations were caused by both methods and observers along with the different cadaver specimens used. Further, the 3D scanner measurements were closer to the gold standard measurements when compared to the CBCT measurements. In the assessment of artificially created maxillary defects, the 3D scanner measurements were more accurate than the CBCT measurements.

  8. Forensic DNA phenotyping: Developing a model privacy impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scudder, Nathan; McNevin, Dennis; Kelty, Sally F; Walsh, Simon J; Robertson, James

    2018-05-01

    Forensic scientists around the world are adopting new technology platforms capable of efficiently analysing a larger proportion of the human genome. Undertaking this analysis could provide significant operational benefits, particularly in giving investigators more information about the donor of genetic material, a particularly useful investigative lead. Such information could include predicting externally visible characteristics such as eye and hair colour, as well as biogeographical ancestry. This article looks at the adoption of this new technology from a privacy perspective, using this to inform and critique the application of a Privacy Impact Assessment to this emerging technology. Noting the benefits and limitations, the article develops a number of themes that would influence a model Privacy Impact Assessment as a contextual framework for forensic laboratories and law enforcement agencies considering implementing forensic DNA phenotyping for operational use. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  10. Bioprocesses: Modelling needs for process evaluation and sustainability assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiménez-Gonzaléz, Concepcion; Woodley, John

    2010-01-01

    development such that they can also be used to evaluate processes against sustainability metrics, as well as economics as an integral part of assessments. Finally, property models will also be required based on compounds not currently present in existing databases. It is clear that many new opportunities......The next generation of process engineers will face a new set of challenges, with the need to devise new bioprocesses, with high selectivity for pharmaceutical manufacture, and for lower value chemicals manufacture based on renewable feedstocks. In this paper the current and predicted future roles...... of process system engineering and life cycle inventory and assessment in the design, development and improvement of sustainable bioprocesses are explored. The existing process systems engineering software tools will prove essential to assist this work. However, the existing tools will also require further...

  11. Assessing the limitations of the Banister model in monitoring training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellard, Philippe; Avalos, Marta; Lacoste, Lucien; Barale, Frédéric; Chatard, Jean-Claude; Millet, Grégoire P.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this study was to carry out a statistical analysis of the Banister model to verify how useful it is in monitoring the training programmes of elite swimmers. The accuracy, the ill-conditioning and the stability of this model were thus investigated. Training loads of nine elite swimmers, measured over one season, were related to performances with the Banister model. Firstly, to assess accuracy, the 95% bootstrap confidence interval (95% CI) of parameter estimates and modelled performances were calculated. Secondly, to study ill-conditioning, the correlation matrix of parameter estimates was computed. Finally, to analyse stability, iterative computation was performed with the same data but minus one performance, chosen randomly. Performances were significantly related to training loads in all subjects (R2= 0.79 ± 0.13, P < 0.05) and the estimation procedure seemed to be stable. Nevertheless, the 95% CI of the most useful parameters for monitoring training were wide τa =38 (17, 59), τf =19 (6, 32), tn =19 (7, 35), tg =43 (25, 61). Furthermore, some parameters were highly correlated making their interpretation worthless. The study suggested possible ways to deal with these problems and reviewed alternative methods to model the training-performance relationships. PMID:16608765

  12. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  13. A transportable system of models for natural resource damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, M.; French, D.

    1992-01-01

    A system of computer models has been developed for assessment of natural resource economic damages resulting from spills of oil and hazardous materials in marine and fresh water environments. Under USA federal legislation, the results of the model system are presumed correct in damage litigation proceedings. The model can address a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The equations describing the motion of both pollutants and biota are solved in three dimensions. The model can simulate continuous releases of a contaminant, with representation of complex coastal boundaries, variable bathymetry, multiple shoreline types, and spatially variable ecosystem habitats. A graphic user interface provides easy control of the system in addition to the ability to display elements of the underlying geographical information system data base. The model is implemented on a personal computer and on a UNIX workstation. The structure of the system is such that transport to new geographic regions can be accomplished relatively easily, requiring only the development of the appropriate physical, toxicological, biological, and economic data sets. Applications are currently in progress for USA inland and coastal waters, the Adriatic Sea, the Strait of Sicily, the Gulf of Suez, and the Baltic Sea. 4 refs., 2 figs

  14. Assessment of a Low-Cost Ultrasound Pericardiocentesis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Campo dell'Orto

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The use of ultrasound during resuscitation is emphasized in the latest European resuscitation council guidelines of 2013 to identify treatable conditions such as pericardial tamponade. The recommended standard treatment of tamponade in various guidelines is pericardiocentesis. As ultrasound guidance lowers the complication rates and increases the patient’s safety, pericardiocentesis should be performed under ultrasound guidance. Acute care physicians actually need to train emergency pericardiocentesis. Methods. We describe in detail a pericardiocentesis ultrasound model, using materials at a cost of about 60 euros. During training courses of focused echocardiography n=67, participants tested the phantom and completed a 16-item questionnaire, assessing the model using a visual analogue scale (VAS. Results. Eleven of fourteen questions were answered with a mean VAS score higher than 60% and thus regarded as showing the strengths of the model. Unrealistically outer appearance and heart shape were rated as weakness of the model. A total mean VAS score of all questions of 63% showed that participants gained confidence for further interventions. Conclusions. Our low-cost pericardiocentesis model, which can be easily constructed, may serve as an effective training tool of ultrasound-guided pericardiocentesis for acute and critical care physicians.

  15. Assessment of a Low-Cost Ultrasound Pericardiocentesis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo dell'Orto, Marco; Hempel, Dorothea; Starzetz, Agnieszka; Seibel, Armin; Hannemann, Ulf; Walcher, Felix; Breitkreutz, Raoul

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. The use of ultrasound during resuscitation is emphasized in the latest European resuscitation council guidelines of 2013 to identify treatable conditions such as pericardial tamponade. The recommended standard treatment of tamponade in various guidelines is pericardiocentesis. As ultrasound guidance lowers the complication rates and increases the patient's safety, pericardiocentesis should be performed under ultrasound guidance. Acute care physicians actually need to train emergency pericardiocentesis. Methods. We describe in detail a pericardiocentesis ultrasound model, using materials at a cost of about 60 euros. During training courses of focused echocardiography n = 67, participants tested the phantom and completed a 16-item questionnaire, assessing the model using a visual analogue scale (VAS). Results. Eleven of fourteen questions were answered with a mean VAS score higher than 60% and thus regarded as showing the strengths of the model. Unrealistically outer appearance and heart shape were rated as weakness of the model. A total mean VAS score of all questions of 63% showed that participants gained confidence for further interventions. Conclusions. Our low-cost pericardiocentesis model, which can be easily constructed, may serve as an effective training tool of ultrasound-guided pericardiocentesis for acute and critical care physicians. PMID:24288616

  16. Energy-based numerical models for assessment of soil liquefaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hossein Alavi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This study presents promising variants of genetic programming (GP, namely linear genetic programming (LGP and multi expression programming (MEP to evaluate the liquefaction resistance of sandy soils. Generalized LGP and MEP-based relationships were developed between the strain energy density required to trigger liquefaction (capacity energy and the factors affecting the liquefaction characteristics of sands. The correlations were established based on well established and widely dispersed experimental results obtained from the literature. To verify the applicability of the derived models, they were employed to estimate the capacity energy values of parts of the test results that were not included in the analysis. The external validation of the models was verified using statistical criteria recommended by researchers. Sensitivity and parametric analyses were performed for further verification of the correlations. The results indicate that the proposed correlations are effectively capable of capturing the liquefaction resistance of a number of sandy soils. The developed correlations provide a significantly better prediction performance than the models found in the literature. Furthermore, the best LGP and MEP models perform superior than the optimal traditional GP model. The verification phases confirm the efficiency of the derived correlations for their general application to the assessment of the strain energy at the onset of liquefaction.

  17. An integrated urban drainage system model for assessing renovation scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X; Zeng, S; Chen, J; Zhao, D

    2012-01-01

    Due to sustained economic growth in China over the last three decades, urbanization has been on a rapidly expanding track. In recent years, regional industrial relocations were also accelerated across the country from the east coast to the west inland. These changes have led to a large-scale redesign of urban infrastructures, including the drainage system. To help the reconstructed infrastructures towards a better sustainability, a tool is required for assessing the efficiency and environmental performance of different renovation schemes. This paper developed an integrated dynamic modeling tool, which consisted of three models for describing the sewer, the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and the receiving water body respectively. Three auxiliary modules were also incorporated to conceptualize the model, calibrate the simulations, and analyze the results. The developed integrated modeling tool was applied to a case study in Shenzhen City, which is one of the most dynamic cities and facing considerable challenges for environmental degradation. The renovation scheme proposed to improve the environmental performance of Shenzhen City's urban drainage system was modeled and evaluated. The simulation results supplied some suggestions for the further improvement of the renovation scheme.

  18. Assessing the Validity of the Simplified Potential Energy Clock Model for Modeling Glass-Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamison, Ryan Dale [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grillet, Anne M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stavig, Mark E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Strong, Kevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dai, Steve Xunhu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Glass-ceramic seals may be the future of hermetic connectors at Sandia National Laboratories. They have been shown capable of surviving higher temperatures and pressures than amorphous glass seals. More advanced finite-element material models are required to enable model-based design and provide evidence that the hermetic connectors can meet design requirements. Glass-ceramics are composite materials with both crystalline and amorphous phases. The latter gives rise to (non-linearly) viscoelastic behavior. Given their complex microstructures, glass-ceramics may be thermorheologically complex, a behavior outside the scope of currently implemented constitutive models at Sandia. However, it was desired to assess if the Simplified Potential Energy Clock (SPEC) model is capable of capturing the material response. Available data for SL 16.8 glass-ceramic was used to calibrate the SPEC model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing model predictions with shear moduli temperature dependence and high temperature 3-point bend creep data. It is shown that the model can predict the temperature dependence of the shear moduli and 3- point bend creep data. Analysis of the results is presented. Suggestions for future experiments and model development are presented. Though further calibration is likely necessary, SPEC has been shown capable of modeling glass-ceramic behavior in the glass transition region but requires further analysis below the transition region.

  19. Assessment of RANS CFD modelling for pressurised thermal shock analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sander M Willemsen; Ed MJ Komen; Sander Willemsen

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: The most severe Pressurised Thermal Shock (PTS) scenario is a cold water Emergency Core Coolant (ECC) injection into the cold leg during a LOCA. The injected ECC water mixes with the hot fluid present in the cold leg and flows towards the downcomer where further mixing takes place. When the cold mixture comes into contact with the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) wall, it may lead to large temperature gradients and consequently to high stresses in the RPV wall. Knowledge of these thermal loads is important for RPV remnant life assessments. The existing thermal-hydraulic system codes currently applied for this purpose are based on one-dimensional approximations and can, therefore, not predict the complex three-dimensional flows occurring during ECC injection. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) can be applied to predict these phenomena, with the ultimate benefit of improved remnant RPV life assessment. The present paper presents an assessment of various Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) CFD approaches for modeling the complex mixing phenomena occurring during ECC injection. This assessment has been performed by comparing the numerical results obtained using advanced turbulence models available in the CFX 5.6 CFD code in combination with a hybrid meshing strategy with experimental results of the Upper Plenum Test Facility (UPTF). The UPTF was a full-scale 'simulation' of the primary system of the four loop 1300 MWe Siemens/KWU Pressurised Water Reactor at Grafenrheinfeld. The test vessel upper plenum internals, downcomer and primary coolant piping were replicas of the reference plant, while other components, such as core, coolant pump and steam generators were replaced by simulators. From the extensive test programme, a single-phase fluid-fluid mixing experiment in the cold leg and downcomer was selected. Prediction of the mixing and stratification is assessed by comparison with the measured temperature profiles at several locations

  20. Simplified Predictive Models for CO2 Sequestration Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Srikanta; RaviGanesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; Mooney, Douglas; He, Jincong; Durlofsky, Louis

    2014-05-01

    We present results from an ongoing research project that seeks to develop and validate a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The overall research goal is to provide tools for predicting: (a) injection well and formation pressure buildup, and (b) lateral and vertical CO2 plume migration. Simplified modeling approaches that are being developed in this research fall under three categories: (1) Simplified physics-based modeling (SPM), where only the most relevant physical processes are modeled, (2) Statistical-learning based modeling (SLM), where the simulator is replaced with a "response surface", and (3) Reduced-order method based modeling (RMM), where mathematical approximations reduce the computational burden. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. In the first category (SPM), we use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. In the second category (SLM), we develop statistical "proxy models" using the simulation domain described previously with two different approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface fit, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a Kriging metamodel fit using a quadratic trend and Gaussian correlation structure. For roughly the same number of

  1. Assessment of the five-factor model of personality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widiger, T A; Trull, T J

    1997-04-01

    The five-factor model (FFM) of personality is obtaining construct validation, recognition, and practical consideration across a broad domain of fields, including clinical psychology, industrial-organizational psychology, and health psychology. As a result, an array of instruments have been developed and existing instruments are being modified to assess the FFM. In this article, we present an overview and critique of five such instruments (the Goldberg Big Five Markers, the revised NEO Personality Inventory, the Interpersonal Adjective Scales-Big Five, the Personality Psychopathology-Five, and the Hogan Personality Inventory), focusing in particular on their representation of the lexical FFM and their practical application.

  2. Human Factor Modelling in the Risk Assessment of Port Manoeuvers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Abramowicz-Gerigk

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The documentation of human factor influence on the scenario development in maritime accidents compared with expert methods is commonly used as a basis in the process of setting up safety regulations and instructions. The new accidents and near misses show the necessity for further studies in determining the human factor influence on both risk acceptance criteria and development of risk control options for the manoeuvers in restricted waters. The paper presents the model of human error probability proposed for the assessment of ship masters and marine pilots' error decision and its influence on the risk of port manoeuvres.

  3. Modelling and performance assessment of an antenna-control system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrows, C. R.

    1982-03-01

    An assessment is made of a surveillance-radar control system designed to provide a sector-search capability and continuous control of antenna speed without unwanted torque-reaction on the supporting mast. These objectives are attained by utilizing regenerative braking, and control is exercised through Perbury CVTs. A detailed analysis of the system is given. The models derived for the Perbury CVTs supplement the qualitative data contained in earlier papers. Some results from a computer simulation are presented. Although the paper is concerned with a particular problem, the analysis of the CVTs, and the concept of using energy transfer to control large inertial loads, are of more general interest.

  4. Predicting Performance on MOOC Assessments using Multi-Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ren, Zhiyun; Rangwala, Huzefa; Johri, Aditya

    2016-01-01

    The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempt...

  5. Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U. [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland); Korhonen, J. [VTT Electronics, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-04-01

    This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.).

  6. Assessing ecological sustainability in urban planning - EcoBalance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, I., Email: irmeli.wahlgren@vtt.fi

    2012-06-15

    Urban planning solutions and decisions have large-scale significance for ecological sustainability (eco-efficiency) the consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of greenhouse gas and other emissions and the costs caused by urban form. Climate change brings new and growing challenges for urban planning. The EcoBalance model was developed to assess the sustainability of urban form and has been applied at various planning levels: regional plans, local master plans and detailed plans. The EcoBalance model estimates the total consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of emissions and wastes and the costs caused directly and indirectly by urban form on a life cycle basis. The results of the case studies provide information about the ecological impacts of various solutions in urban development. (orig.)

  7. Operation quality assessment model for video conference system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Bangshi; Qi, Feng; Shao, Sujie; Wang, Ying; Li, Weijian

    2018-01-01

    Video conference system has become an important support platform for smart grid operation and management, its operation quality is gradually concerning grid enterprise. First, the evaluation indicator system covering network, business and operation maintenance aspects was established on basis of video conference system's operation statistics. Then, the operation quality assessment model combining genetic algorithm with regularized BP neural network was proposed, which outputs operation quality level of the system within a time period and provides company manager with some optimization advice. The simulation results show that the proposed evaluation model offers the advantages of fast convergence and high prediction accuracy in contrast with regularized BP neural network, and its generalization ability is superior to LM-BP neural network and Bayesian BP neural network.

  8. Considerations on assessment of different time depending models adequacy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Constantinescu, C.

    2015-01-01

    The operating period of nuclear power plants can be prolonged if it can be shown that their safety has remained on a high level, and for this, it is necessary to estimate how the aged systems, structures and components (SSCs) influence the NPP reliability and safety. To emphasize the ageing aspects the case study presented in this paper will assess different time depending models for rate of occurrence of failures with the goal to obtain the best fitting model. A sensitivity analysis for the impact of burn-in failures was performed to improve the result of the goodness of fit test. Based on the analysis results, a conclusion about the existence or the absence of an ageing trend could be developed. A sensitivity analysis regarding of the reliability parameters was performed, and the results were used to observe the impact over the time-dependent rate of occurrence of failures. (authors)

  9. Assessing policies towards sustainable transport in Europe: an integrated model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros

    2005-01-01

    A transport simulation and forecast model is presented, which is designed for the assessment of policy options aiming to achieve sustainability in transportation. Starting from a simulation of the economic behaviour of consumers and producers within a microeconomic optimisation framework and the resulting calculation of the modal split, the allocation of the vehicle stock into vintages and technological groups is modelled. In a third step, a technology-oriented algorithm, which incorporates the relevant state-of-the-art knowledge in Europe, calculates emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases as well as appropriate indicators for traffic congestion, noise and road accidents. The paper outlines the methodology and the basic data sources used in connection with work done so far in Europe, presents the outlook according to a 'reference case' run for the 15 current European Union Member States up to 2030, displays aggregate results from a number of alternative scenarios and outlines elements of future work

  10. Lysimeter data as input to performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, J.W. Jr.

    1998-01-01

    The Field Lysimeter Investigations: Low-Level Waste Data Base Development Program is obtaining information on the performance of radioactive waste forms in a disposal environment. Waste forms fabricated using ion-exchange resins from EPICOR-117 prefilters employed in the cleanup of the Three Mile Island (TMI) Nuclear Power Station are being tested to develop a low-level waste data base and to obtain information on survivability of waste forms in a disposal environment. The program includes reviewing radionuclide releases from those waste forms in the first 7 years of sampling and examining the relationship between code input parameters and lysimeter data. Also, lysimeter data are applied to performance assessment source term models, and initial results from use of data in two models are presented

  11. Usage models in reliability assessment of software-based systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haapanen, P.; Pulkkinen, U.; Korhonen, J.

    1997-04-01

    This volume in the OHA-project report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in the OHA-project report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. In this report the issues related to the statistical testing and especially automated test case generation are considered. The goal is to find an efficient method for building usage models for the generation of statistically significant set of test cases and to gather practical experiences from this method by applying it in a case study. The scope of the study also includes the tool support for the method, as the models may grow quite large and complex. (32 refs., 30 figs.)

  12. Assessment of tropospheric delay mapping function models in Egypt: Using PTD database model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelfatah, M. A.; Mousa, Ashraf E.; El-Fiky, Gamal S.

    2018-06-01

    For space geodetic measurements, estimates of tropospheric delays are highly correlated with site coordinates and receiver clock biases. Thus, it is important to use the most accurate models for the tropospheric delay to reduce errors in the estimates of the other parameters. Both the zenith delay value and mapping function should be assigned correctly to reduce such errors. Several mapping function models can treat the troposphere slant delay. The recent models were not evaluated for the Egyptian local climate conditions. An assessment of these models is needed to choose the most suitable one. The goal of this paper is to test the quality of global mapping function which provides high consistency with precise troposphere delay (PTD) mapping functions. The PTD model is derived from radiosonde data using ray tracing, which consider in this paper as true value. The PTD mapping functions were compared, with three recent total mapping functions model and another three separate dry and wet mapping function model. The results of the research indicate that models are very close up to zenith angle 80°. Saastamoinen and 1/cos z model are behind accuracy. Niell model is better than VMF model. The model of Black and Eisner is a good model. The results also indicate that the geometric range error has insignificant effect on slant delay and the fluctuation of azimuth anti-symmetric is about 1%.

  13. Erosion Assessment Modeling Using the Sateec Gis Model on the Prislop Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damian Gheorghe

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC acts as an extension for ArcView GIS 3, with easy to use commands. The erosion assessment is divided into two modules that consist of Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE for sheet/rill erosion and the nLS/USPED modeling for gully head erosion. The SATEEC erosion modules can be successfully implemented for areas where sheet, rill and gully erosion occurs, such as the Prislop Catchment. The enhanced SATEEC system does not require experienced GIS users to operate the system therefore it is suitable for local authorities and/or students not so familiar with erosion modeling.

  14. Assessment of bullet effectiveness based on a human vulnerability model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Susu; Xu, C; Wen, Y; Li, G; Zhou, J

    2017-12-25

    Penetrating wounds from explosively propelled fragments and bullets are the most common causes of combat injury. There is a requirement to assess the potential effectiveness of bullets penetrating human tissues in order to optimise preventive measures and wound trauma management. An advanced voxel model based on the Chinese Visible Human data was built. A digital human vulnerability model was established in combination with wound reconstruction and vulnerability assessment rules, in which wound penetration profiles were obtained by recreating the penetration of projectiles into ballistic gelatin. An effectiveness evaluation method of bullet penetration using the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was developed and solved using the Monte Carlo sampling method. The effectiveness of rifle bullets was demonstrated to increase with increasing velocity in the range of 300-700 m/s. When imparting the same energy, the effectiveness of the 5.56 mm bullet was higher than the 7.62 mm bullet in this model. The superimposition of simulant penetration profiles produced from ballistic gelatin simulant has been used to predict wound tracts in damaged tissues. The authors recognise that determining clinical effectiveness based on the AIS scores alone without verification of outcome by review of clinical hospital records means that this technique should be seen more as a manner of comparing the effectiveness of bullets than an injury prediction model. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  15. Quality assessment in higher education using the SERVQUALQ model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabina Đonlagić

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina is striving towards growth and increased employment and it has been proven by empirical studies worldwide that higher education contributes to socio-economic development of a country. Universities are important for generation, preservation and dissemination of knowledge in order to contribute to socio-economic benefits of a country. Higher education institutions are being pressured to improve value for their activities and providing quality higher education service to students should be taken seriously. In this paper we will address the emerging demand for quality in higher education. Higher education institutions should assess quality of their services and establish methods for improving quality. Activities of quality assurance should be integrated into the management process at higher education institutions. This paper is addressing the issue of service quality measurement in higher education institutions. The most frequently used model in this context is the SERVQUAL model. This model is measuring quality from the students' point of view, since students are considered to be one of the most important stakeholders for a higher education institution. The main objective of this research is to provide empirical evidence that the adapted SERVQAL model can be used in higher education and to identify the service quality gap based on its application at one institution of higher education (Faculty of Economics in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Furthermore, results of the gap analysis using the SERVQUAL methodology provide relevant information in which areas improvement is necessary in order to enhance service quality.

  16. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  17. Biosphere model for assessing doses from nuclear waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, R.; Amiro, B.D.; Davis, P.A.; Sheppard, S.C.; Szekeley, J.G.

    1994-01-01

    The biosphere model, BIOTRAC, for predicting long term nuclide concentrations and radiological doses from Canada's nuclear fuel waste disposal concept of a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield is presented. This generic, boreal zone biosphere model is based on scenario analysis and systems variability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Conservatism is used to bridge uncertainties, even though this creates a small amount of extra nuclide mass. Environmental change over the very long assessment period is mainly handled through distributed parameter values. The dose receptors are a critical group of humans and four generic non-human target organisms. BIOTRAC includes six integrated submodels and it interfaces smoothly with a geosphere model. This interface includes a bedrock well. The geosphere model defines the discharge zones of deep groundwater where nuclides released from the vault enter the biosphere occupied by the dose receptors. The size of one of these zones is reduced when water is withdrawn from the bedrock well. Sensitivity analysis indicates 129 I is by far the most important radionuclide. Results also show bedrock-well water leads to higher doses to man than lake water, but the former doses decrease with the size of the critical group. Under comparable circumstances, doses to the non-human biota are greater than those for man

  18. Spatially Informed Plant PRA Models for Security Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheeler, Timothy A.; Thomas, Willard; Thornsbury, Eric

    2006-01-01

    Traditional risk models can be adapted to evaluate plant response for situations where plant systems and structures are intentionally damaged, such as from sabotage or terrorism. This paper describes a process by which traditional risk models can be spatially informed to analyze the effects of compound and widespread harsh environments through the use of 'damage footprints'. A 'damage footprint' is a spatial map of regions of the plant (zones) where equipment could be physically destroyed or disabled as a direct consequence of an intentional act. The use of 'damage footprints' requires that the basic events from the traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) be spatially transformed so that the failure of individual components can be linked to the destruction of or damage to specific spatial zones within the plant. Given the nature of intentional acts, extensive modifications must be made to the risk models to account for the special nature of the 'initiating events' associated with deliberate adversary actions. Intentional acts might produce harsh environments that in turn could subject components and structures to one or more insults, such as structural, fire, flood, and/or vibration and shock damage. Furthermore, the potential for widespread damage from some of these insults requires an approach that addresses the impacts of these potentially severe insults even when they occur in locations distant from the actual physical location of a component or structure modeled in the traditional PRA. (authors)

  19. Intrinsic ethics regarding integrated assessment models for climate management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schienke, Erich W; Baum, Seth D; Tuana, Nancy; Davis, Kenneth J; Keller, Klaus

    2011-09-01

    In this essay we develop and argue for the adoption of a more comprehensive model of research ethics than is included within current conceptions of responsible conduct of research (RCR). We argue that our model, which we label the ethical dimensions of scientific research (EDSR), is a more comprehensive approach to encouraging ethically responsible scientific res