WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessment modeling approach

  1. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-15

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  2. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-01

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  3. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  4. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  5. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development

  6. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: bjorn.axel.gran@hrp.no; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: rune.fredriksen@hrp.no; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail: atoosa.p-j.thunem@hrp.no

    2007-11-15

    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

  7. Towards a realistic approach to validation of reactive transport models for performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    Performance assessment calculations are based on geochemical models that assume that interactions among radionuclides, rocks and groundwaters under natural conditions, can be estimated or bound by data obtained from laboratory-scale studies. The data include radionuclide distribution coefficients, measured in saturated batch systems of powdered rocks, and retardation factors measured in short-term column experiments. Traditional approaches to model validation cannot be applied in a straightforward manner to the simple reactive transport models that use these data. An approach to model validation in support of performance assessment is described in this paper. It is based on a recognition of different levels of model validity and is compatible with the requirements of current regulations for high-level waste disposal. Activities that are being carried out in support of this approach include (1) laboratory and numerical experiments to test the validity of important assumptions inherent in current performance assessment methodologies,(2) integrated transport experiments, and (3) development of a robust coupled reaction/transport code for sensitivity analyses using massively parallel computers

  8. Assessing testamentary and decision-making capacity: Approaches and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Kelly; Rosenfeld, Tuly

    2015-09-01

    The need for better and more accurate assessments of testamentary and decision-making capacity grows as Australian society ages and incidences of mentally disabling conditions increase. Capacity is a legal determination, but one on which medical opinion is increasingly being sought. The difficulties inherent within capacity assessments are exacerbated by the ad hoc approaches adopted by legal and medical professionals based on individual knowledge and skill, as well as the numerous assessment paradigms that exist. This can negatively affect the quality of assessments, and results in confusion as to the best way to assess capacity. This article begins by assessing the nature of capacity. The most common general assessment models used in Australia are then discussed, as are the practical challenges associated with capacity assessment. The article concludes by suggesting a way forward to satisfactorily assess legal capacity given the significant ramifications of getting it wrong.

  9. Life cycle reliability assessment of new products—A Bayesian model updating approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Li, Yanfeng; Zuo, Ming J.; Xie, Min

    2013-01-01

    The rapidly increasing pace and continuously evolving reliability requirements of new products have made life cycle reliability assessment of new products an imperative yet difficult work. While much work has been done to separately estimate reliability of new products in specific stages, a gap exists in carrying out life cycle reliability assessment throughout all life cycle stages. We present a Bayesian model updating approach (BMUA) for life cycle reliability assessment of new products. Novel features of this approach are the development of Bayesian information toolkits by separately including “reliability improvement factor” and “information fusion factor”, which allow the integration of subjective information in a specific life cycle stage and the transition of integrated information between adjacent life cycle stages. They lead to the unique characteristics of the BMUA in which information generated throughout life cycle stages are integrated coherently. To illustrate the approach, an application to the life cycle reliability assessment of a newly developed Gantry Machining Center is shown

  10. Approach to modeling of human performance for purposes of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swain, A.D.

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes the general approach taken in NUREG/CR-1278 to model human performance in sufficienct detail to permit probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plant operations. To show the basis for the more specific models in the above NUREG, a simplified model of the human component in man-machine systems is presented, the role of performance shaping factors is discussed, and special problems in modeling the cognitive aspect of behavior are described

  11. Roadmap Modeling and Assessment Approach for Defense Technology System of Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Lu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Advanced defense technology plays a crucial role in safeguarding national safety and development interests. Aiming to handle the problems of current research and development (R&D management approaches faced with the rocketing complexities of system of systems, the authors propose a novel roadmap modeling and assessment methodology through studying the driving forces of general technology development and analyzing realistic requirements of defense technology management in this article. First, a requirement decomposition framework is designed based on multi-view theories and text-mining tools are used to construct a multi-layer knowledge-flow network model. Second, the contribution rates of requirement elements at different levels are evaluated using a multi-criteria decision-making approach and the node importance is assessed based on the topological structure of multi-layer network. Third, it is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches that illustrative examples of the technology requirements in maritime security strategy investigating and a dual-layer knowledge-flow network consists of patents that belong to the “Coherent Light Generator (CLC” classification from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO database and the related academic papers from Web of Science. Finally, the contributions, potential applications, and drawbacks of this work are discussed and research outlooks are provided.

  12. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  13. State Higher Education Funding Models: An Assessment of Current and Emerging Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layzell, Daniel T.

    2007-01-01

    This article provides an assessment of the current and emerging approaches used by state governments in allocating funding for higher education institutions and programs. It reviews a number of desired characteristics or outcomes for state higher education funding models, including equity, adequacy, stability, and flexibility. Although there is…

  14. Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvie Briand

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Yellow fever (YF virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. CONCLUSION: This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

  15. Prospective and participatory integrated assessment of agricultural systems from farm to regional scales: Comparison of three modeling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmotte, Sylvestre; Lopez-Ridaura, Santiago; Barbier, Jean-Marc; Wery, Jacques

    2013-11-15

    Evaluating the impacts of the development of alternative agricultural systems, such as organic or low-input cropping systems, in the context of an agricultural region requires the use of specific tools and methodologies. They should allow a prospective (using scenarios), multi-scale (taking into account the field, farm and regional level), integrated (notably multicriteria) and participatory assessment, abbreviated PIAAS (for Participatory Integrated Assessment of Agricultural System). In this paper, we compare the possible contribution to PIAAS of three modeling approaches i.e. Bio-Economic Modeling (BEM), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and statistical Land-Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) models. After a presentation of each approach, we analyze their advantages and drawbacks, and identify their possible complementarities for PIAAS. Statistical LUCC modeling is a suitable approach for multi-scale analysis of past changes and can be used to start discussion about the futures with stakeholders. BEM and ABM approaches have complementary features for scenarios assessment at different scales. While ABM has been widely used for participatory assessment, BEM has been rarely used satisfactorily in a participatory manner. On the basis of these results, we propose to combine these three approaches in a framework targeted to PIAAS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Statistical multi-model approach for performance assessment of cooling tower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Tian-Hong; Shieh, Shyan-Shu; Jang, Shi-Shang; Tseng, Wen-Hung; Wu, Chan-Wei; Ou, Jenq-Jang

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a data-driven model-based assessment strategy to investigate the performance of a cooling tower. In order to achieve this objective, the operations of a cooling tower are first characterized using a data-driven method, multiple models, which presents a set of local models in the format of linear equations. Satisfactory fuzzy c-mean clustering algorithm is used to classify operating data into several groups to build local models. The developed models are then applied to predict the performance of the system based on design input parameters provided by the manufacturer. The tower characteristics are also investigated using the proposed models via the effects of the water/air flow ratio. The predicted results tend to agree well with the calculated tower characteristics using actual measured operating data from an industrial plant. By comparison with the design characteristic curve provided by the manufacturer, the effectiveness of cooling tower can be obtained in the end. A case study conducted in a commercial plant demonstrates the validity of proposed approach. It should be noted that this is the first attempt to assess the cooling efficiency which is deviated from the original design value using operating data for an industrial scale process. Moreover, the evaluated process need not interrupt the normal operation of the cooling tower. This should be of particular interest in industrial applications.

  17. Hybrid approach for the assessment of PSA models by means of binary decision diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibanez-Llano, Cristina; Rauzy, Antoine; Melendez, Enrique; Nieto, Francisco

    2010-01-01

    Binary decision diagrams are a well-known alternative to the minimal cutsets approach to assess the reliability Boolean models. They have been applied successfully to improve the fault trees models assessment. However, its application to solve large models, and in particular the event trees coming from the PSA studies of the nuclear industry, remains to date out of reach of an exact evaluation. For many real PSA models it may be not possible to compute the BDD within reasonable amount of time and memory without considering the truncation or simplification of the model. This paper presents a new approach to estimate the exact probabilistic quantification results (probability/frequency) based on combining the calculation of the MCS and the truncation limits, with the BDD approach, in order to have a better control on the reduction of the model and to properly account for the success branches. The added value of this methodology is that it is possible to ensure a real confidence interval of the exact value and therefore an explicit knowledge of the error bound. Moreover, it can be used to measure the acceptability of the results obtained with traditional techniques. The new method was applied to a real life PSA study and the results obtained confirm the applicability of the methodology and open a new viewpoint for further developments.

  18. Hybrid approach for the assessment of PSA models by means of binary decision diagrams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez-Llano, Cristina, E-mail: cristina.ibanez@iit.upcomillas.e [Instituto de Investigacion Tecnologica (IIT), Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieria ICAI, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, C/Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26, 28015 Madrid (Spain); Rauzy, Antoine, E-mail: Antoine.RAUZY@3ds.co [Dassault Systemes, 10 rue Marcel Dassault CS 40501, 78946 Velizy Villacoublay Cedex (France); Melendez, Enrique, E-mail: ema@csn.e [Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), C/Justo Dorado 11, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Nieto, Francisco, E-mail: nieto@iit.upcomillas.e [Instituto de Investigacion Tecnologica (IIT), Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieria ICAI, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, C/Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26, 28015 Madrid (Spain)

    2010-10-15

    Binary decision diagrams are a well-known alternative to the minimal cutsets approach to assess the reliability Boolean models. They have been applied successfully to improve the fault trees models assessment. However, its application to solve large models, and in particular the event trees coming from the PSA studies of the nuclear industry, remains to date out of reach of an exact evaluation. For many real PSA models it may be not possible to compute the BDD within reasonable amount of time and memory without considering the truncation or simplification of the model. This paper presents a new approach to estimate the exact probabilistic quantification results (probability/frequency) based on combining the calculation of the MCS and the truncation limits, with the BDD approach, in order to have a better control on the reduction of the model and to properly account for the success branches. The added value of this methodology is that it is possible to ensure a real confidence interval of the exact value and therefore an explicit knowledge of the error bound. Moreover, it can be used to measure the acceptability of the results obtained with traditional techniques. The new method was applied to a real life PSA study and the results obtained confirm the applicability of the methodology and open a new viewpoint for further developments.

  19. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models-Their nature and approaches to reduce them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, G.; Steiner, M.

    2008-01-01

    Radioecological assessment models are necessary tools for estimating the radiation exposure of humans and non-human biota. This paper focuses on factors affecting their predictive accuracy, discusses the origin and nature of the different contributions to uncertainty and variability and presents approaches to separate and quantify them. The key role of the conceptual model, notably in relation to its structure and complexity, as well as the influence of the number and type of input parameters, are highlighted. Guidelines are provided to improve the degree of reliability of radioecological models

  20. Approach to reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.; Bourne, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    Experience has shown that reliability assessments can play an important role in the early design and subsequent operation of technological systems where reliability is at a premium. The approaches to and techniques for such assessments, which have been outlined in the paper, have been successfully applied in variety of applications ranging from individual equipments to large and complex systems. The general approach involves the logical and systematic establishment of the purpose, performance requirements and reliability criteria of systems. This is followed by an appraisal of likely system achievment based on the understanding of different types of variational behavior. A fundamental reliability model emerges from the correlation between the appropriate Q and H functions for performance requirement and achievement. This model may cover the complete spectrum of performance behavior in all the system dimensions

  1. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walke, Russell C. [Quintessa Limited, The Hub, 14 Station Road, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom); Kirchner, Gerald [University of Hamburg, ZNF, Beim Schlump 83, 20144 Hamburg (Germany); Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Bjoern [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, SE-171 16 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    Geological facilities are the preferred option for disposal of high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long time scales. Safety cases developed in support of geological disposal include assessment of potential impacts on humans and wildlife in order to demonstrate compliance with regulatory criteria. As disposal programmes move from site-independent/generic assessments through site selection to applications for construction/operation and closure, the degree of understanding of the present-day site increases, together with increased site-specific information. Assessments need to strike a balance between simple models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on this site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The complex biosphere model was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's model is built on a landscape evolution model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. The site is located on the Baltic coast with a terrestrial landscape including lakes, mires, forest and agriculture. The land at the site is projected to continue to rise due to post-glacial uplift leading to ecosystem transitions in excess of ten thousand years. The simple biosphere models developed for this study include the most plausible transport processes and represent various types of ecosystem. The complex biosphere models adopt a relatively coarse representation of the near-surface strata, which is shown to be conservative, but also to under-estimate the time scale required for potential doses to reach equilibrium with radionuclide fluxes

  2. METHODICAL APPROACH TO AN ASSESSMENT OF THE POTENTIAL OF THE BUSINESS MODEL OF THE ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur D. Bobryshev

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the development of a methodical approach to carrying out objective assessment of a business model of the enterprise at justifi cation of investment decisions in the industry.Methods: the study is based on the application of methods of analysis of financial state of enterprises, structural, statistical analyses, expert assessments and business modeling. Actual information about the industry obtained from the materials of the Center server corporate disclosure.Results: widely known abroad the concept of business modeling is gradually finding its deserved recognition in the preparation of investment decisions in industry. Meanwhile, up to the present time specialists are not offered objective mechanism for assessing the degree of optimality of the business model of the industrial enterprise. Judgments about the excellence or badness of a business model are made on the basis of intuitive perception of experts about the completeness of the reflection in it of the main components of modern business. However, this approach in the justification of investment in industrial enterprise entails too high a price to erroneous conclusions based on subjective perceptions. To ensure an objective assessment of excellence models, the proposed methodological rationale of this work is based on comparing the actual parameters of the business and its target the formalized values.Conclusions and Relevance: the recommended use of the mathematical apparatus of the factor analysis of the business model of the industrial enterprise makes the work to support investment decisions in a scientifically sound procedure that guarantees obtaining reliable results.

  3. Assessing the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution of urban stormwater runoff: a dynamic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Lin, Zhongrong; Li, Hao; Ge, Yan; Zhang, Wei; Ye, Youbin; Wang, Xuejun

    2014-05-15

    Urban stormwater runoff delivers a significant amount of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), mostly of atmospheric origin, to receiving water bodies. The PAH pollution of urban stormwater runoff poses serious risk to aquatic life and human health, but has been overlooked by environmental modeling and management. This study proposed a dynamic modeling approach for assessing the PAH pollution and its associated environmental risk. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of pollutant buildup and washoff. To reflect the complex interaction among different environmental media (i.e. atmosphere, dust and stormwater), the dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. Long-term simulations of the model can be efficiently performed, and probabilistic features of the pollution level and its risk can be easily determined. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case study in Beijing, China. The results showed that Beijing's PAH pollution of road runoff is relatively severe, and its associated risk exhibits notable seasonal variation. The current sweeping practice is effective in mitigating the pollution, but the effectiveness is both weather-dependent and compound-dependent. The proposed modeling approach can help identify critical timing and major pollutants for monitoring, assessing and controlling efforts to be focused on. The approach is extendable to other urban areas, as well as to other contaminants with similar fate and transport as PAHs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. CFD modeling of two-stage ignition in a rapid compression machine: Assessment of zero-dimensional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mittal, Gaurav [Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Akron, Akron, OH 44325 (United States); Raju, Mandhapati P. [General Motor R and D Tech Center, Warren, MI 48090 (United States); Sung, Chih-Jen [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    In modeling rapid compression machine (RCM) experiments, zero-dimensional approach is commonly used along with an associated heat loss model. The adequacy of such approach has not been validated for hydrocarbon fuels. The existence of multi-dimensional effects inside an RCM due to the boundary layer, roll-up vortex, non-uniform heat release, and piston crevice could result in deviation from the zero-dimensional assumption, particularly for hydrocarbons exhibiting two-stage ignition and strong thermokinetic interactions. The objective of this investigation is to assess the adequacy of zero-dimensional approach in modeling RCM experiments under conditions of two-stage ignition and negative temperature coefficient (NTC) response. Computational fluid dynamics simulations are conducted for n-heptane ignition in an RCM and the validity of zero-dimensional approach is assessed through comparisons over the entire NTC region. Results show that the zero-dimensional model based on the approach of 'adiabatic volume expansion' performs very well in adequately predicting the first-stage ignition delays, although quantitative discrepancy for the prediction of the total ignition delays and pressure rise in the first-stage ignition is noted even when the roll-up vortex is suppressed and a well-defined homogeneous core is retained within an RCM. Furthermore, the discrepancy is pressure dependent and decreases as compressed pressure is increased. Also, as ignition response becomes single-stage at higher compressed temperatures, discrepancy from the zero-dimensional simulations reduces. Despite of some quantitative discrepancy, the zero-dimensional modeling approach is deemed satisfactory from the viewpoint of the ignition delay simulation. (author)

  5. Model-Based Approaches for Teaching and Practicing Personality Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blais, Mark A; Hopwood, Christopher J

    2017-01-01

    Psychological assessment is a complex professional skill. Competence in assessment requires an extensive knowledge of personality, neuropsychology, social behavior, and psychopathology, a background in psychometrics, familiarity with a range of multimethod tools, cognitive flexibility, skepticism, and interpersonal sensitivity. This complexity makes assessment a challenge to teach and learn, particularly as the investment of resources and time in assessment has waned in psychological training programs over the last few decades. In this article, we describe 3 conceptual models that can assist teaching and learning psychological assessments. The transtheoretical model of personality provides a personality systems-based framework for understanding how multimethod assessment data relate to major personality systems and can be combined to describe and explain complex human behavior. The quantitative psychopathology-personality trait model is an empirical model based on the hierarchical organization of individual differences. Application of this model can help students understand diagnostic comorbidity and symptom heterogeneity, focus on more meaningful high-order domains, and identify the most effective assessment tools for addressing a given question. The interpersonal situation model is rooted in interpersonal theory and can help students connect test data to here-and-now interactions with patients. We conclude by demonstrating the utility of these models using a case example.

  6. A combined triggering-propagation modeling approach for the assessment of rainfall induced debris flow susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancanelli, Laura Maria; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino; Foti, Enrico

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall-induced shallow slides can evolve into debris flows that move rapidly downstream with devastating consequences. Mapping the susceptibility to debris flow is an important aid for risk mitigation. We propose a novel practical approach to derive debris flow inundation maps useful for susceptibility assessment, that is based on the integrated use of DEM-based spatially-distributed hydrological and slope stability models with debris flow propagation models. More specifically, the TRIGRS infiltration and infinite slope stability model and the FLO-2D model for the simulation of the related debris flow propagation and deposition are combined. An empirical instability-to-debris flow triggering threshold calibrated on the basis of observed events, is applied to link the two models and to accomplish the task of determining the amount of unstable mass that develops as a debris flow. Calibration of the proposed methodology is carried out based on real data of the debris flow event occurred on 1 October 2009, in the Peloritani mountains area (Italy). Model performance, assessed by receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) indexes, evidences fairly good reproduction of the observed event. Comparison with the performance of the traditional debris flow modeling procedure, in which sediment and water hydrographs are inputed as lumped at selected points on top of the streams, is also performed, in order to assess quantitatively the limitations of such commonly applied approach. Results show that the proposed method, besides of being more process-consistent than the traditional hydrograph-based approach, can potentially provide a more accurate simulation of debris-flow phenomena, in terms of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition as well on the quantification of mobilized volumes and depths, avoiding overestimation of debris flow triggering volume and, thus, of maximum inundation flow depths.

  7. Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

    2018-05-01

    Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The Methodical Approach to Assessment of Enterprise Activity on the Basis of its Models, Based on the Balanced Scorecard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minenkova Olena V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article proposes the methodical approach to assessment of activity of enterprise on the basis of its models, based on the balanced scorecard. The content is presented and the following components of the methodical approach are formed: tasks, input information, list of methods and models, as well as results. Implementation of this methodical approach provides improvement of management and increase of results of enterprise activity. The place of assessment models in management of enterprise activity and formation of managerial decision has been defined. Recommendations as to the operations of decision-making procedures to increase the efficiency of enterprise have been provided.

  9. Analysis of third-party certification approaches using an occupational health and safety conformity-assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redinger, C F; Levine, S P

    1998-11-01

    The occupational health and safety conformity-assessment model presented in this article was developed (1) to analyze 22 public and private programs to determine the extent to which these programs use third parties in conformity-assessment determinations, and (2) to establish a framework to guide future policy developments related to the use of third parties in occupational health and safety conformity-assessment activities. The units of analysis for this study included select Occupational Safety and Health Administration programs and standards, International Organization for Standardization-based standards and guidelines, and standards and guidelines developed by nongovernmental bodies. The model is based on a 15-cell matrix that categorizes first-, second-, and third-party activities in terms of assessment, accreditation, and accreditation-recognition activities. The third-party component of the model has three categories: industrial hygiene/safety testing and sampling; product, equipment, and laboratory certification; and, occupational health and safety management system registration/certification. Using the model, 16 of the 22 programs were found to have a third-party component in their conformity-assessment structure. The analysis revealed that (1) the model provides a useful means to describe and analyze various third-party approaches, (2) the model needs modification to capture aspects of traditional governmental conformity-assessment/enforcement activities, and (3) several existing third-party conformity-assessment systems offer robust models that can guide future third-party policy formulation and implementation activities.

  10. A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing uncertainty in conceptual site models at contaminated sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Nanna Isbak; Binning, Philip John; McKnight, Ursula S.

    2016-01-01

    the most important site-specific features and processes that may affect the contaminant transport behavior at the site. However, the development of a CSM will always be associated with uncertainties due to limited data and lack of understanding of the site conditions. CSM uncertainty is often found...... to be a major source of model error and it should therefore be accounted for when evaluating uncertainties in risk assessments. We present a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach for constructing CSMs and assessing their uncertainty at contaminated sites. BBNs are graphical probabilistic models...... that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The proposed BBN approach facilitates a systematic construction of multiple CSMs, and then determines the belief in each CSM using a variety of data types and/or expert...

  11. Assessing a Top-Down Modeling Approach for Seasonal Scale Snow Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, C. H.; Lute, A.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic snow models are commonly applied to assess changes to snowpacks in a warming climate. Such assessments involve a number of assumptions about details of weather at daily to sub-seasonal time scales. Models of season-scale behavior can provide contrast for evaluating behavior at time scales more in concordance with climate warming projections. Such top-down models, however, involve a degree of empiricism, with attendant caveats about the potential of a changing climate to affect calibrated relationships. We estimated the sensitivity of snowpacks from 497 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the western U.S. based on differences in climate between stations (spatial analog). We examined the sensitivity of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) and mean snow residence time (SRT) to variations in Nov-Mar precipitation and average Nov-Mar temperature using multivariate local-fit regressions. We tested the modeling approach using a leave-one-out cross-validation as well as targeted two-fold non-random cross-validations contrasting, for example, warm vs. cold years, dry vs. wet years, and north vs. south stations. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values for the validations were strong for April 1 SWE, ranging from 0.71 to 0.90, and still reasonable, but weaker, for SRT, in the range of 0.64 to 0.81. From these ranges, we exclude validations where the training data do not represent the range of target data. A likely reason for differences in validation between the two metrics is that the SWE model reflects the influence of conservation of mass while using temperature as an indicator of the season-scale energy balance; in contrast, SRT depends more strongly on the energy balance aspects of the problem. Model forms with lower numbers of parameters generally validated better than more complex model forms, with the caveat that pseudoreplication could encourage selection of more complex models when validation contrasts were weak. Overall, the split sample validations

  12. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  13. Stochastic rainfall modeling in West Africa: Parsimonious approaches for domestic rainwater harvesting assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowden, Joshua R.; Watkins, David W., Jr.; Mihelcic, James R.

    2008-10-01

    SummarySeveral parsimonious stochastic rainfall models are developed and compared for application to domestic rainwater harvesting (DRWH) assessment in West Africa. Worldwide, improved water access rates are lowest for Sub-Saharan Africa, including the West African region, and these low rates have important implications on the health and economy of the region. Domestic rainwater harvesting (DRWH) is proposed as a potential mechanism for water supply enhancement, especially for the poor urban households in the region, which is essential for development planning and poverty alleviation initiatives. The stochastic rainfall models examined are Markov models and LARS-WG, selected due to availability and ease of use for water planners in the developing world. A first-order Markov occurrence model with a mixed exponential amount model is selected as the best option for unconditioned Markov models. However, there is no clear advantage in selecting Markov models over the LARS-WG model for DRWH in West Africa, with each model having distinct strengths and weaknesses. A multi-model approach is used in assessing DRWH in the region to illustrate the variability associated with the rainfall models. It is clear DRWH can be successfully used as a water enhancement mechanism in West Africa for certain times of the year. A 200 L drum storage capacity could potentially optimize these simple, small roof area systems for many locations in the region.

  14. A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing uncertainty in conceptual site models at contaminated sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, Nanna I.; Binning, Philip J.; McKnight, Ursula S.; Tuxen, Nina; Bjerg, Poul L.; Troldborg, Mads

    2016-05-01

    A key component in risk assessment of contaminated sites is in the formulation of a conceptual site model (CSM). A CSM is a simplified representation of reality and forms the basis for the mathematical modeling of contaminant fate and transport at the site. The CSM should therefore identify the most important site-specific features and processes that may affect the contaminant transport behavior at the site. However, the development of a CSM will always be associated with uncertainties due to limited data and lack of understanding of the site conditions. CSM uncertainty is often found to be a major source of model error and it should therefore be accounted for when evaluating uncertainties in risk assessments. We present a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach for constructing CSMs and assessing their uncertainty at contaminated sites. BBNs are graphical probabilistic models that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The proposed BBN approach facilitates a systematic construction of multiple CSMs, and then determines the belief in each CSM using a variety of data types and/or expert opinion at different knowledge levels. The developed BBNs combine data from desktop studies and initial site investigations with expert opinion to assess which of the CSMs are more likely to reflect the actual site conditions. The method is demonstrated on a Danish field site, contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Four different CSMs are developed by combining two contaminant source zone interpretations (presence or absence of a separate phase contamination) and two geological interpretations (fractured or unfractured clay till). The beliefs in each of the CSMs are assessed sequentially based on data from three investigation stages (a screening investigation, a more detailed investigation, and an expert consultation) to demonstrate that the belief can be updated as more information

  15. Development of hydrogeological modelling approaches for assessment of consequences of hazardous accidents at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumynin, V.G.; Mironenko, V.A.; Konosavsky, P.K.; Pereverzeva, S.A.

    1994-07-01

    This paper introduces some modeling approaches for predicting the influence of hazardous accidents at nuclear reactors on groundwater quality. Possible pathways for radioactive releases from nuclear power plants were considered to conceptualize boundary conditions for solving the subsurface radionuclides transport problems. Some approaches to incorporate physical-and-chemical interactions into transport simulators have been developed. The hydrogeological forecasts were based on numerical and semi-analytical scale-dependent models. They have been applied to assess the possible impact of the nuclear power plants designed in Russia on groundwater reservoirs

  16. Nuclear security assessment with Markov model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear security risk assessment with the Markov model based on random event is performed to explore evaluation methodology for physical protection in nuclear facilities. Because the security incidences are initiated by malicious and intentional acts, expert judgment and Bayes updating are used to estimate scenario and initiation likelihood, and it is assumed that the Markov model derived from stochastic process can be applied to incidence sequence. Both an unauthorized intrusion as Design Based Threat (DBT) and a stand-off attack as beyond-DBT are assumed to hypothetical facilities, and performance of physical protection and mitigation and minimization of consequence are investigated to develop the assessment methodology in a semi-quantitative manner. It is shown that cooperation between facility operator and security authority is important to respond to the beyond-DBT incidence. (author)

  17. Reliability assessment using degradation models: bayesian and classical approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Afonso Freitas

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, reliability assessment of devices has been based on (accelerated life tests. However, for highly reliable products, little information about reliability is provided by life tests in which few or no failures are typically observed. Since most failures arise from a degradation mechanism at work for which there are characteristics that degrade over time, one alternative is monitor the device for a period of time and assess its reliability from the changes in performance (degradation observed during that period. The goal of this article is to illustrate how degradation data can be modeled and analyzed by using "classical" and Bayesian approaches. Four methods of data analysis based on classical inference are presented. Next we show how Bayesian methods can also be used to provide a natural approach to analyzing degradation data. The approaches are applied to a real data set regarding train wheels degradation.Tradicionalmente, o acesso à confiabilidade de dispositivos tem sido baseado em testes de vida (acelerados. Entretanto, para produtos altamente confiáveis, pouca informação a respeito de sua confiabilidade é fornecida por testes de vida no quais poucas ou nenhumas falhas são observadas. Uma vez que boa parte das falhas é induzida por mecanismos de degradação, uma alternativa é monitorar o dispositivo por um período de tempo e acessar sua confiabilidade através das mudanças em desempenho (degradação observadas durante aquele período. O objetivo deste artigo é ilustrar como dados de degradação podem ser modelados e analisados utilizando-se abordagens "clássicas" e Bayesiana. Quatro métodos de análise de dados baseados em inferência clássica são apresentados. A seguir, mostramos como os métodos Bayesianos podem também ser aplicados para proporcionar uma abordagem natural à análise de dados de degradação. As abordagens são aplicadas a um banco de dados real relacionado à degradação de rodas de trens.

  18. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  19. Approaches to health assessment related to housing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guerra Santin, O.

    2006-01-01

    This research had the purpose of providing more information about possible approaches and indicators to measure indoor health in relation to housing. In researches related with health and some Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) databases, the model used for health assessment is the Impact Pathway Analysis

  20. A model-based approach to preplanting risk assessment for gray leaf spot of maize.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, P A; Munkvold, G P

    2004-12-01

    ABSTRACT Risk assessment models for gray leaf spot of maize, caused by Cercospora zeae-maydis, were developed using preplanting site and maize genotype data as predictors. Disease severity at the dough/dent plant growth stage was categorized into classes and used as the response variable. Logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) modeling approaches were used to predict severity classes as a function of planting date (PD), amount of maize soil surface residue (SR), cropping sequence, genotype maturity and gray leaf spot resistance (GLSR) ratings, and longitude (LON). Models were development using 332 cases collected between 1998 and 2001. Thirty cases collected in 2002 were used to validate the models. Preplanting data showed a strong relationship with late-season gray leaf spot severity classes. The most important predictors were SR, PD, GLSR, and LON. Logistic regression models correctly classified 60 to 70% of the validation cases, whereas the CART models correctly classified 57 to 77% of these cases. Cases misclassified by the CART models were mostly due to overestimation, whereas the logistic regression models tended to misclassify cases by underestimation. Both the CART and logistic regression models have potential as management decision-making tools. Early quantitative assessment of gray leaf spot risk would allow for more sound management decisions being made when warranted.

  1. Hydropower assessment of Bolivia—A multisource satellite data and hydrologic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Pervez, Shahriar; Cushing, W. Matthew

    2016-11-28

    This study produced a geospatial database for use in a decision support system by the Bolivian authorities to investigate further development and investment potentials in sustainable hydropower in Bolivia. The study assessed theoretical hydropower of all 1-kilometer (km) stream segments in the country using multisource satellite data and a hydrologic modeling approach. With the assessment covering the 2 million square kilometer (km2) region influencing Bolivia’s drainage network, the potential hydropower figures are based on theoretical yield assuming that the systems generating the power are 100 percent efficient. There are several factors to consider when determining the real-world or technical power potential of a hydropower system, and these factors can vary depending on local conditions. Since this assessment covers a large area, it was necessary to reduce these variables to the two that can be modeled consistently throughout the region, streamflow or discharge, and elevation drop or head. First, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission high-resolution 30-meter (m) digital elevation model was used to identify stream segments with greater than 10 km2 of upstream drainage. We applied several preconditioning processes to the 30-m digital elevation model to reduce errors and improve the accuracy of stream delineation and head height estimation. A total of 316,500 1-km stream segments were identified and used in this study to assess the total theoretical hydropower potential of Bolivia. Precipitation observations from a total of 463 stations obtained from the Bolivian Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (Bolivian National Meteorology and Hydrology Service) and the Brazilian Agência Nacional de Águas (Brazilian National Water Agency) were used to validate six different gridded precipitation estimates for Bolivia obtained from various sources. Validation results indicated that gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

  2. Industry-Cost-Curve Approach for Modeling the Environmental Impact of Introducing New Technologies in Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kätelhön, Arne; von der Assen, Niklas; Suh, Sangwon; Jung, Johannes; Bardow, André

    2015-07-07

    The environmental costs and benefits of introducing a new technology depend not only on the technology itself, but also on the responses of the market where substitution or displacement of competing technologies may occur. An internationally accepted method taking both technological and market-mediated effects into account, however, is still lacking in life cycle assessment (LCA). For the introduction of a new technology, we here present a new approach for modeling the environmental impacts within the framework of LCA. Our approach is motivated by consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) and aims to contribute to the discussion on how to operationalize consequential thinking in LCA practice. In our approach, we focus on new technologies producing homogeneous products such as chemicals or raw materials. We employ the industry cost-curve (ICC) for modeling market-mediated effects. Thereby, we can determine substitution effects at a level of granularity sufficient to distinguish between competing technologies. In our approach, a new technology alters the ICC potentially replacing the highest-cost producer(s). The technologies that remain competitive after the new technology's introduction determine the new environmental impact profile of the product. We apply our approach in a case study on a new technology for chlor-alkali electrolysis to be introduced in Germany.

  3. A residence-time-based transport approach for the groundwater pathway in performance assessment models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Bruce A.; Chu, Shaoping

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents the theoretical development and numerical implementation of a new modeling approach for representing the groundwater pathway in risk assessment or performance assessment model of a contaminant transport system. The model developed in the present study, called the Residence Time Distribution (RTD) Mixing Model (RTDMM), allows for an arbitrary distribution of fluid travel times to be represented, to capture the effects on the breakthrough curve of flow processes such as channelized flow and fast pathways and complex three-dimensional dispersion. Mathematical methods for constructing the model for a given RTD are derived directly from the theory of residence time distributions in flowing systems. A simple mixing model is presented, along with the basic equations required to enable an arbitrary RTD to be reproduced using the model. The practical advantages of the RTDMM include easy incorporation into a multi-realization probabilistic simulation; computational burden no more onerous than a one-dimensional model with the same number of grid cells; and straightforward implementation into available flow and transport modeling codes, enabling one to then utilize advanced transport features of that code. For example, in this study we incorporated diffusion into the stagnant fluid in the rock matrix away from the flowing fractures, using a generalized dual porosity model formulation. A suite of example calculations presented herein showed the utility of the RTDMM for the case of a radioactive decay chain, dual porosity transport and sorption.

  4. Probabilistic approach to EMP assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bevensee, R.M.; Cabayan, H.S.; Deadrick, F.J.; Martin, L.C.; Mensing, R.W.

    1980-09-01

    The development of nuclear EMP hardness requirements must account for uncertainties in the environment, in interaction and coupling, and in the susceptibility of subsystems and components. Typical uncertainties of the last two kinds are briefly summarized, and an assessment methodology is outlined, based on a probabilistic approach that encompasses the basic concepts of reliability. It is suggested that statements of survivability be made compatible with system reliability. Validation of the approach taken for simple antenna/circuit systems is performed with experiments and calculations that involve a Transient Electromagnetic Range, numerical antenna modeling, separate device failure data, and a failure analysis computer program

  5. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  6. Towards a dynamic assessment of raw materials criticality: Linking agent-based demand — With material flow supply modelling approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoeri, Christof; Wäger, Patrick A.; Stamp, Anna; Althaus, Hans-Joerg; Weil, Marcel

    2013-01-01

    Emerging technologies such as information and communication-, photovoltaic- or battery technologies are expected to increase significantly the demand for scarce metals in the near future. The recently developed methods to evaluate the criticality of mineral raw materials typically provide a ‘snapshot’ of the criticality of a certain material at one point in time by using static indicators both for supply risk and for the impacts of supply restrictions. While allowing for insights into the mechanisms behind the criticality of raw materials, these methods cannot account for dynamic changes in products and/or activities over time. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework intended to overcome these limitations by including the dynamic interactions between different possible demand and supply configurations. The framework integrates an agent-based behaviour model, where demand emerges from individual agent decisions and interaction, into a dynamic material flow model, representing the materials' stocks and flows. Within the framework, the environmental implications of substitution decisions are evaluated by applying life-cycle assessment methodology. The approach makes a first step towards a dynamic criticality assessment and will enhance the understanding of industrial substitution decisions and environmental implications related to critical metals. We discuss the potential and limitation of such an approach in contrast to state-of-the-art methods and how it might lead to criticality assessments tailored to the specific circumstances of single industrial sectors or individual companies. - Highlights: ► Current criticality assessment methods provide a ‘snapshot’ at one point in time. ► They do not account for dynamic interactions between demand and supply. ► We propose a conceptual framework to overcomes these limitations. ► The framework integrates an agent-based behaviour model with a dynamic material flow model. ► The approach proposed makes

  7. PARALLEL MODELS OF ASSESSMENT: INFANT MENTAL HEALTH AND THERAPEUTIC ASSESSMENT MODELS INTERSECT THROUGH EARLY CHILDHOOD CASE STUDIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gart, Natalie; Zamora, Irina; Williams, Marian E

    2016-07-01

    Therapeutic Assessment (TA; S.E. Finn & M.E. Tonsager, 1997; J.D. Smith, 2010) is a collaborative, semistructured model that encourages self-discovery and meaning-making through the use of assessment as an intervention approach. This model shares core strategies with infant mental health assessment, including close collaboration with parents and caregivers, active participation of the family, a focus on developing new family stories and increasing parents' understanding of their child, and reducing isolation and increasing hope through the assessment process. The intersection of these two theoretical approaches is explored, using case studies of three infants/young children and their families to illustrate the application of TA to infant mental health. The case of an 18-month-old girl whose parents fear that she has bipolar disorder illustrates the core principles of the TA model, highlighting the use of assessment intervention sessions and the clinical approach to preparing assessment feedback. The second case follows an infant with a rare genetic syndrome from ages 2 to 24 months, focusing on the assessor-parent relationship and the importance of a developmental perspective. Finally, assessment of a 3-year-old boy illustrates the development and use of a fable as a tool to provide feedback to a young child about assessment findings and recommendations. © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  8. Total System Performance Assessment-License Application Methods and Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. McNeish

    2002-09-13

    ''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issue (KTI) agreements, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (CNWRA 2002 [158449]), and 10 CFR Part 63. This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are utilized in this document.

  9. Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

    2016-03-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical

  10. Total System Performance Assessment - License Application Methods and Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeish, J.

    2003-01-01

    ''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issues (KTIs) identified in agreements with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (YMRP), ''Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [163274]), and the NRC final rule 10 CFR Part 63 (NRC 2002 [156605]). This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are used in this document

  11. The Wally plot approach to assess the calibration of clinical prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, Paul; Gerds, Thomas A; Ekstrøm, Claus T

    2017-12-06

    A prediction model is calibrated if, roughly, for any percentage x we can expect that x subjects out of 100 experience the event among all subjects that have a predicted risk of x%. Typically, the calibration assumption is assessed graphically but in practice it is often challenging to judge whether a "disappointing" calibration plot is the consequence of a departure from the calibration assumption, or alternatively just "bad luck" due to sampling variability. We propose a graphical approach which enables the visualization of how much a calibration plot agrees with the calibration assumption to address this issue. The approach is mainly based on the idea of generating new plots which mimic the available data under the calibration assumption. The method handles the common non-trivial situations in which the data contain censored observations and occurrences of competing events. This is done by building on ideas from constrained non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation methods. Two examples from large cohort data illustrate our proposal. The 'wally' R package is provided to make the methodology easily usable.

  12. Dose related risk and effect assessment model (DREAM) -- A more realistic approach to risk assessment of offshore discharges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnsen, S.; Furuholt, E.

    1995-01-01

    Risk assessment of discharges from offshore oil and gas production to the marine environment features determination of potential environmental concentration (PEC) levels and no observed effect concentration (NOEC) levels. The PEC values are normally based on dilution of chemical components in the actual discharge source in the recipient, while the NOEC values are determined by applying a safety factor to acute toxic effects from laboratory tests. The DREAM concept focuses on realistic exposure doses as function of contact time and dilution, rather than fixed exposure concentrations of chemicals in long time exposure regimes. In its present state, the DREAM model is based on a number of assumptions with respect to the link between real life exposure doses and effects observed in laboratory tests. A research project has recently been initiated to develop the concept further, with special focus on chronic effects of different chemical compounds on the marine ecosystem. One of the questions that will be addressed is the link between exposure time, dose, concentration and effect. Validation of the safety factors applied for transforming acute toxic data into NOEC values will also be included. The DREAM model has been used by Statoil for risk assessment of discharges from new and existing offshore oil and gas production fields, and has been found to give a much more realistic results than conventional risk assessment tools. The presentation outlines the background for the DREAM approach, describes the model in its present state, discusses further developments and applications, and shows a number of examples on the performance of DREAM

  13. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  14. Hybrid approach to structure modeling of the histamine H3 receptor: Multi-level assessment as a tool for model verification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Jończyk

    Full Text Available The crucial role of G-protein coupled receptors and the significant achievements associated with a better understanding of the spatial structure of known receptors in this family encouraged us to undertake a study on the histamine H3 receptor, whose crystal structure is still unresolved. The latest literature data and availability of different software enabled us to build homology models of higher accuracy than previously published ones. The new models are expected to be closer to crystal structures; and therefore, they are much more helpful in the design of potential ligands. In this article, we describe the generation of homology models with the use of diverse tools and a hybrid assessment. Our study incorporates a hybrid assessment connecting knowledge-based scoring algorithms with a two-step ligand-based docking procedure. Knowledge-based scoring employs probability theory for global energy minimum determination based on information about native amino acid conformation from a dataset of experimentally determined protein structures. For a two-step docking procedure two programs were applied: GOLD was used in the first step and Glide in the second. Hybrid approaches offer advantages by combining various theoretical methods in one modeling algorithm. The biggest advantage of hybrid methods is their intrinsic ability to self-update and self-refine when additional structural data are acquired. Moreover, the diversity of computational methods and structural data used in hybrid approaches for structure prediction limit inaccuracies resulting from theoretical approximations or fuzziness of experimental data. The results of docking to the new H3 receptor model allowed us to analyze ligand-receptor interactions for reference compounds.

  15. Assessing Approaches to Learning in School Readiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otilia C. Barbu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the psychometric properties of two assessments of children’s approaches to learning: the Devereux Early Childhood Assessment (DECA and a 13-item approaches to learning rating scale (AtL derived from the Arizona Early Learning Standards (AELS. First, we administered questionnaires to 1,145 randomly selected parents/guardians of first-time kindergarteners. Second, we employed confirmatory factor analysis (CFA with parceling for DECA to reduce errors due to item specificity and prevent convergence difficulties when simultaneously estimating DECA and AtL models. Results indicated an overlap of 55% to 72% variance between the domains of the two instruments and suggested that the new AtL instrument is an easily administered alternative to the DECA for measuring children’s approaches to learning. This is one of the first studies that investigated DECA’s approaches to learning dimension and explored the measurement properties of an instrument purposely derived from a state’s early learning guidelines.

  16. Modelling of Biota Dose Effects. Report of Working Group 6 Biota Dose Effects Modelling of EMRAS II Topical Heading Reference Approaches for Biota Dose Assessment. Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II) Programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-07-01

    Environmental assessment models are used for evaluating the radiological impact of actual and potential releases of radionuclides to the environment. They are essential tools for use in the regulatory control of routine discharges to the environment and in planning the measures to be taken in the event of accidental releases. They are also used for predicting the impact of releases which may occur far into the future, for example, from underground radioactive waste repositories. It is important to verify, to the extent possible, the reliability of the predictions of such models by a comparison with measured values in the environment or with the predictions of other models. The IAEA has been organizing programmes on international model testing since the 1980s. These programmes have contributed to a general improvement in models, in the transfer of data and in the capabilities of modellers in Member States. IAEA publications on this subject over the past three decades demonstrate the comprehensive nature of the programmes and record the associated advances which have been made. From 2009 to 2011, the IAEA organized a project entitled Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II), which concentrated on the improvement of environmental transfer models and the development of reference approaches to estimate the radiological impacts on humans, as well as on flora and fauna, arising from radionuclides in the environment. Different aspects were addressed by nine working groups covering three themes: reference approaches for human dose assessment, reference approaches for biota dose assessment and approaches for addressing emergency situations. This publication describes the work of the Biota Effects Modelling Working Group

  17. Modelling of Biota Dose Effects. Report of Working Group 6 Biota Dose Effects Modelling of EMRAS II Topical Heading Reference Approaches for Biota Dose Assessment. Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II) Programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2014-07-15

    Environmental assessment models are used for evaluating the radiological impact of actual and potential releases of radionuclides to the environment. They are essential tools for use in the regulatory control of routine discharges to the environment and in planning the measures to be taken in the event of accidental releases. They are also used for predicting the impact of releases which may occur far into the future, for example, from underground radioactive waste repositories. It is important to verify, to the extent possible, the reliability of the predictions of such models by a comparison with measured values in the environment or with the predictions of other models. The IAEA has been organizing programmes on international model testing since the 1980s. These programmes have contributed to a general improvement in models, in the transfer of data and in the capabilities of modellers in Member States. IAEA publications on this subject over the past three decades demonstrate the comprehensive nature of the programmes and record the associated advances which have been made. From 2009 to 2011, the IAEA organized a project entitled Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II), which concentrated on the improvement of environmental transfer models and the development of reference approaches to estimate the radiological impacts on humans, as well as on flora and fauna, arising from radionuclides in the environment. Different aspects were addressed by nine working groups covering three themes: reference approaches for human dose assessment, reference approaches for biota dose assessment and approaches for addressing emergency situations. This publication describes the work of the Biota Effects Modelling Working Group.

  18. Total System Performance Assessment - License Application Methods and Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. McNeish

    2003-12-08

    ''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issues (KTIs) identified in agreements with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (YMRP), ''Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [163274]), and the NRC final rule 10 CFR Part 63 (NRC 2002 [156605]). This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are used in this document.

  19. Environmental Change in Post-closure Safety Assessment of Solid Radioactive Waste Repositories. Report of Working Group 3 Reference Models for Waste Disposal of EMRAS II Topical Heading Reference Approaches for Human Dose Assessment. Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS II) Programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-08-01

    Environmental assessment models are used for evaluating the radiological impact of actual and potential releases of radionuclides to the environment. They are essential tools for use in the regulatory control of routine discharges to the environment and also in planning measures to be taken in the event of accidental releases. They are also used for predicting the impact of releases which may occur far into the future, for example, from underground radioactive waste repositories. It is important to verify, to the extent possible, the reliability of the predictions of such models by a comparison with measured values in the environment or with predictions of other models. The IAEA has been organizing programmes of international model testing since the 1980s. These programmes have contributed to a general improvement in models, in the transfer of data and in the capabilities of modellers in Member States. IAEA publications on this subject over the past three decades demonstrate the comprehensive nature of the programmes and record the associated advances which have been made. From 2009 to 2011, the IAEA organized a programme entitled Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS II), which concentrated on the improvement of environmental transfer models and the development of reference approaches to estimate the radiological impacts on humans, as well as on flora and fauna, arising from radionuclides in the environment. Different aspects were addressed by nine working groups covering three themes: reference approaches for human dose assessment, reference approaches for biota dose assessment and approaches for assessing emergency situations. This publication describes the work of the Reference Models for Waste Disposal Working Group

  20. An introduction to the indirect exposure assessment approach: modeling human exposure using microenvironmental measurements and the recent National Human Activity Pattern Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepeis, N E

    1999-01-01

    Indirect exposure approaches offer a feasible and accurate method for estimating population exposures to indoor pollutants, including environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). In an effort to make the indirect exposure assessment approach more accessible to people in the health and risk assessment fields, this paper provides examples using real data from (italic>a(/italic>) a week-long personal carbon monoxide monitoring survey conducted by the author; and (italic>b(/italic>) the 1992 to 1994 National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS) for the United States. The indirect approach uses measurements of exposures in specific microenvironments (e.g., homes, bars, offices), validated microenvironmental models (based on the mass balance equation), and human activity pattern data obtained from questionnaires to predict frequency distributions of exposure for entire populations. This approach requires fewer resources than the direct approach to exposure assessment, for which the distribution of monitors to a representative sample of a given population is necessary. In the indirect exposure assessment approach, average microenvironmental concentrations are multiplied by the total time spent in each microenvironment to give total integrated exposure. By assuming that the concentrations encountered in each of 10 location categories are the same for different members of the U.S. population (i.e., the NHAPS respondents), the hypothetical contribution that ETS makes to the average 24-hr respirable suspended particle exposure for Americans working their main job is calculated in this paper to be 18 microg/m3. This article is an illustrative review and does not contain an actual exposure assessment or model validation. Images Figure 3 Figure 4 PMID:10350522

  1. From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fock, Heino O; Kraus, Gerd

    2016-01-01

    Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR

  2. From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Gerd

    2016-01-01

    Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR

  3. Innovative Modelling Approach of Safety Culture Assessment in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, N.

    2016-01-01

    A culture is commonly defined as the shared set of norms and values that govern appropriate individual behavior. Safety culture is the subset of organizational culture that reflects the general attitude and approaches to safety and risk management. While safety is sometimes narrowly defined in terms of human death and injury, we use a more inclusive definition that also considers mission loss as a safety problem and is thus applicable to nuclear power plants and missions. The recent accident reports and investigations of the nuclear power plant mission failures (i.e., TMI, Chernobyl, and Fukushima) point to safety cultural problems in nuclear power plants. Many assessment approaches have been developed by organizations such as IAEA and INPO based on the assessment of parameters at separate levels — individuals, groups, and organizations.

  4. Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2015-06-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

  5. Route Assessment for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixia Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated route assessment approach based on cloud model is proposed in this paper, where various sources of uncertainties are well kept and modeled by cloud theory. Firstly, a systemic criteria framework incorporating models for scoring subcriteria is developed. Then, the cloud model is introduced to represent linguistic variables, and survivability probability histogram of each route is converted into normal clouds by cloud transformation, enabling both randomness and fuzziness in the assessment environment to be managed simultaneously. Finally, a new way to measure the similarity between two normal clouds satisfying reflexivity, symmetry, transitivity, and overlapping is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed route assessment approach outperforms fuzzy logic based assessment approach with regard to feasibility, reliability, and consistency with human thinking.

  6. Assessment for One-Shot Library Instruction: A Conceptual Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rui

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore a conceptual approach to assessment for one-shot library instruction. This study develops a new assessment instrument based on Carol Kuhlthau's information search process (ISP) model. The new instrument focuses on measuring and identifying changes in student readiness to do research along three…

  7. Approaches for assessing sustainable remediation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Gitte Lemming; Binning, Philip John; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    Sustainable remediation seeks to reduce direct contaminant point source impacts on the environment, while minimizing the indirect cost of remediation to the environment, society and economy. This paper presents an overview of available approaches for assessing the sustainability of alternative...... remediation strategies for a contaminated site. Most approaches use multi-criteria assessment methods (MCA) to structure a decision support process. Different combinations of environmental, social and economic criteria are employed, and are assessed either in qualitative or quantitative forms with various...... tools such as life cycle assessment and cost benefit analysis. Stakeholder involvement, which is a key component of sustainable remediation, is conducted in various ways. Some approaches involve stakeholders directly in the evaluation or weighting of criteria, whereas other approaches only indirectly...

  8. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  9. Hospital distribution in a metropolitan city: assessment by a geographical information system grid modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Soo Lee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Grid models were used to assess urban hospital distribution in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. A geographical information system (GIS based analytical model was developed and applied to assess the situation in a metropolitan area with a population exceeding 10 million. Secondary data for this analysis were obtained from multiple sources: the Korean Statistical Information Service, the Korean Hospital Association and the Statistical Geographical Information System. A grid of cells measuring 1 × 1 km was superimposed on the city map and a set of variables related to population, economy, mobility and housing were identified and measured for each cell. Socio-demographic variables were included to reflect the characteristics of each area. Analytical models were then developed using GIS software with the number of hospitals as the dependent variable. Applying multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression models, three factors (highway and major arterial road areas; number of subway entrances; and row house areas were statistically significant in explaining the variance of hospital distribution for each cell. The overall results show that GIS is a useful tool for analysing and understanding location strategies. This approach appears a useful source of information for decision-makers concerned with the distribution of hospitals and other health care centres in a city.

  10. APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

  11. Assessing Online Discussions: A Holistic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu-mei; Chen, Der-Thanq

    2017-01-01

    This article reports a holistic approach to assessing online discussions. This holistic approach integrates three assessment methods: assessment of learning, assessment for learning, and assessment as learning. Assessment of learning directly examines students' learning products to decide whether they have achieved the expected learning through…

  12. Embedding Systems Thinking into EWB Project Planning and Development: Assessing the Utility of a Group Model Building Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Pugel

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Amongst growing sociotechnical efforts, engineering students and professionals both in the international development sector and industry are challenged to approach projects more holistically to achieve project goals.  Engineering service learning organizations must similarly adapt their technological projects to consider varying cultural and economic structures, ensuring more resilient social progress within development efforts.  In practice, systems thinking approaches can be utilized to model the social, economic, political, and technological implications that influence the sustainability of an engineering project. This research assesses the utility of integrating systems thinking into Engineers Without Borders (EWB project planning and development, thereby improving project impact and more effectively engaging members.  At a workshop held at an EWB-USA 2016 Regional Conference, the authors presented a planning and evaluation framework that applies group model building with system dynamics to foster systems thinking through factor diagramming and analysis. To assess the added value of the framework for EWB project planning and development, extensive participant feedback was gathered and evaluated during the workshop and through an optional post-workshop survey.  Supported by thoughtful observations and feedback provided by the EWB members, the model building workshop appeared to help participants reveal and consider project complexities by both visually and quantitatively identifying key non-technical and technical factors that influence project sustainability.  Therefore, system dynamics applied in a group model building workshop offers a powerful supplement to traditional EWB project planning and assessment activities, providing a systems-based tool for EWB teams and partner communities to build capacity and create lasting change.

  13. The Rule-Assessment Approach and Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the rule-assessment approach to cognitive development. The basic question that motivated the rule-assessment approach is how people's existing knowledge influences their ability to learn. Research using the rule-assessment approach is summarized in terms of eight conclusions, each illustrated with empirical examples.…

  14. Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: Inter-comparison of modelling approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansen, M.P., E-mail: mathew.johansen@ansto.gov.au [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, NSW, 2232 (Australia); Barnett, C.L., E-mail: clb@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Beresford, N.A., E-mail: nab@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Brown, J.E., E-mail: justin.brown@nrpa.no [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Oesteraas (Norway); Cerne, M., E-mail: marko.cerne@ijs.si [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Howard, B.J., E-mail: bjho@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Kamboj, S., E-mail: skamboj@anl.gov [Argonne National Laboratory, IL (United States); Keum, D.-K., E-mail: dkkeum@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Smodis, B. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Twining, J.R., E-mail: jrt@ansto.gov.au [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, NSW, 2232 (Australia); Vandenhove, H., E-mail: hvandenh@sckcen.be [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol (Belgium); Vives i Batlle, J., E-mail: jvbatll@sckcen.be [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol (Belgium); Wood, M.D., E-mail: m.d.wood@salford.ac.uk [University of Salford, Manchester (United Kingdom); Yu, C., E-mail: cyu@anl.gov [Argonne National Laboratory, IL (United States)

    2012-06-15

    Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Assessment of modelled dose rates to terrestrial biota from radionuclides. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The substantial variation among current approaches is quantifiable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The dominant variable was soil

  15. NEW MODEL OF QUALITY ASSESSMENT IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION - UPGRADING THE COMMON ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (CAF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirna Macur

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In our study, we developed new model of quality assessment in public administration. The Common Assessment Framework (CAF is frequently used in continental Europe for this purpose. Its use has many benefits, however we believe its assessment logic is not adequate for public administration. Upgraded version of CAF is conceptually different: instead of analytical and linear CAF we get the instrument that measures organisation as a network of complex processes. Original and upgraded assessment approaches are presented in the paper and compared in the case of self-assessment of selected public administration organisation. The two approaches produced different, sometimes contradictory results. The upgraded model proved to be logically more consistent and it produced higher interpretation capacity.

  16. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Enhancing a Facility-Level Model for Proliferation Resistance Assessment of a Nuclear Enegry System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Olson, Jarrod; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-10-26

    The Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment project (PL09-UtilSocial) investigates the use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessments, including nonproliferation assessments, Proliferation Resistance (PR) assessments, safeguards assessments, and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about a host State and its posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system (NES) to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This objective of this project is to find and integrate social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social, and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation; and to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment. This report describes a modeling approach and how it might be used to support a location-specific assessment of the PR assessment of a particular NES. The report demonstrates the use of social modeling to enhance an existing assessment process that relies on primarily technical factors. This effort builds on a literature review and preliminary assessment performed as the first stage of the project and compiled in PNNL-18438. [ T his report describes an effort to answer questions about whether it is possible to incorporate social modeling into a PR assessment in such a way that we can determine the effects of social factors on a primarily technical assessment. This report provides: 1. background information about relevant social factors literature; 2. background information about a particular PR assessment approach relevant to this particular demonstration; 3. a discussion of social modeling undertaken to find and characterize social factors that are relevant to the PR assessment of a nuclear facility in a specific location; 4. description of an enhancement concept that integrates social factors into an existing, technically

  17. Teacher Conceptions and Approaches Associated with an Immersive Instructional Implementation of Computer-Based Models and Assessment in a Secondary Chemistry Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waight, Noemi; Liu, Xiufeng; Gregorius, Roberto Ma.; Smith, Erica; Park, Mihwa

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on a case study of an immersive and integrated multi-instructional approach (namely computer-based model introduction and connection with content; facilitation of individual student exploration guided by exploratory worksheet; use of associated differentiated labs and use of model-based assessments) in the implementation of…

  18. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doctor, P.G.

    1988-08-01

    Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high level radioactive waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 44 refs

  19. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  20. Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mi, Zhi-Fu; Wei, Yi-Ming; Tang, Bao-Jun

    2017-01-01

    ) and GARCH model on the basis of generalized error distribution (GED). The results show that EVT is a powerful approach to capture the risk in the oil markets. On the contrary, the traditional variance–covariance (VC) and Monte Carlo (MC) approaches tend to overestimate risk when the confidence level is 95......%, but underestimate risk at the confidence level of 99%. The VaR of WTI returns is larger than that of Brent returns at identical confidence levels. Moreover, the GED-GARCH model can estimate the downside dynamic VaR accurately for WTI and Brent oil returns....

  1. Estimating the effects of wetland conservation practices in croplands: Approaches for modeling in CEAP–Cropland Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Steven, Diane; Mushet, David

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying the current and potential benefits of conservation practices can be a valuable tool for encouraging greater practice adoption on agricultural lands. A goal of the CEAP-Cropland Assessment is to estimate the environmental effects of conservation practices that reduce losses (exports) of soil, nutrients, and pesticides from farmlands to streams and rivers. The assessment approach combines empirical data on reported cropland practices with simulation modeling that compares field-level exports for scenarios “with practices” and “without practices.” Conserved, restored, and created wetlands collectively represent conservation practices that can influence sediment and nutrient exports from croplands. However, modeling the role of wetlands within croplands presents some challenges, including the potential for negative impacts of sediment and nutrient inputs on wetland functions. This Science Note outlines some preliminary solutions for incorporating wetlands and wetland practices into the CEAP-Cropland modeling framework. First, modeling the effects of wetland practices requires identifying wetland hydrogeomorphic type and accounting for the condition of both the wetland and an adjacent upland zone. Second, modeling is facilitated by classifying wetland-related practices into two functional categories (wetland and upland buffer). Third, simulating practice effects requires alternative field configurations to account for hydrological differences among wetland types. These ideas are illustrated for two contrasting wetland types (riparian and depressional).

  2. Toward a risk-based approach to the assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Fletcher, S.K.; Halbgewachs, R.D.; Jansma, R.M.; Lim, J.J.; Murphy, M.; Sands, P.D.

    1995-03-01

    Traditional approaches to the assessment of information systems have treated system security, system reliability, data integrity, and application functionality as separate disciplines. However, each areas requirements and solutions have a profound impact on the successful implementation of the other areas. A better approach is to assess the ``surety`` of an information system, which is defined as ensuring the ``correct`` operation of an information system by incorporating appropriate levels of safety, functionality, confidentiality, availability, and integrity. Information surety examines the combined impact of design alternatives on all of these areas. We propose a modelling approach that combines aspects of fault trees and influence diagrams for assessing information surety requirements under a risk assessment framework. This approach allows tradeoffs to be based on quantitative importance measures such as risk reduction while maintaining the modelling flexibility of the influence diagram paradigm. This paper presents an overview of the modelling method and a sample application problem.

  3. A GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) for air pollution assessment--a North American case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bao-Zhen; Chen, Zhi

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) to predict the spatial concentration distributions of airborne pollutant on local and regional scales. In this method, an extended multi-box model combined with a multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian model are developed within the GIS framework to examine the contributions from both point- and area-source emissions. By using GIS, a large amount of data including emission sources, air quality monitoring, meteorological data, and spatial location information required for air quality modeling are brought into an integrated modeling environment. It helps more details of spatial variation in source distribution and meteorological condition to be quantitatively analyzed. The developed modeling approach has been examined to predict the spatial concentration distribution of four air pollutants (CO, NO(2), SO(2) and PM(2.5)) for the State of California. The modeling results are compared with the monitoring data. Good agreement is acquired which demonstrated that the developed modeling approach could deliver an effective air pollution assessment on both regional and local scales to support air pollution control and management planning.

  4. Dependability modeling and assessment in UML-based software development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardi, Simona; Merseguer, José; Petriu, Dorina C

    2012-01-01

    Assessment of software nonfunctional properties (NFP) is an important problem in software development. In the context of model-driven development, an emerging approach for the analysis of different NFPs consists of the following steps: (a) to extend the software models with annotations describing the NFP of interest; (b) to transform automatically the annotated software model to the formalism chosen for NFP analysis; (c) to analyze the formal model using existing solvers; (d) to assess the software based on the results and give feedback to designers. Such a modeling→analysis→assessment approach can be applied to any software modeling language, be it general purpose or domain specific. In this paper, we focus on UML-based development and on the dependability NFP, which encompasses reliability, availability, safety, integrity, and maintainability. The paper presents the profile used to extend UML with dependability information, the model transformation to generate a DSPN formal model, and the assessment of the system properties based on the DSPN results.

  5. A probabilistic approach to quantify the uncertainties in internal dose assessment using response surface and neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, M.; Lee, S.K.; Lee, U.C.; Kang, C.S.

    1996-01-01

    A probabilistic approach is formulated to assess the internal radiation exposure following the intake of radioisotopes. This probabilistic approach consists of 4 steps as follows: (1) screening, (2) quantification of uncertainties, (3) propagation of uncertainties, and (4) analysis of output. The approach has been applied for Pu-induced internal dose assessment and a multi-compartment dosimetric model is used for internal transport. In this approach, surrogate models of original system are constructed using response and neural network. And the results of these surrogate models are compared with those of original model. Each surrogate model well approximates the original model. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are evaluated in this process. Dominant contributors to each organ are identified and the results show that this approach could serve a good tool of assessing the internal radiation exposure

  6. A durability model incorporating safe life methodology and damage tolerance approach to assess first inspection and maintenance period for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, J.J.; Shenoi, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper outlines a new durability model to assess the first inspection and maintenance period for structures. Practical scatter factor formulae are presented to determine the safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives from the results of a single full-scale test of a complete structure. New theoretical solutions are proposed to determine the s a -s m -N surfaces of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Prediction techniques are then developed to establish the relationship equation between safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives with a specific reliability level using a two-stage fatigue damage cumulative rule. A new durability model incorporating safe life and damage tolerance design approaches is derived to assess the first inspection and maintenance period. Finally, the proposed models are applied to assess the first inspection and maintenance period of a fastening structure at the root of helicopter blade.

  7. An approach for assessing human decision reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyy, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a method to study human reliability in decision situations related to nuclear power plant disturbances. Decisions often play a significant role in handling of emergency situations. The method may be applied to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) in cases where decision making is an important dimension of an accident sequence. Such situations are frequent e.g. in accident management. In this paper, a modelling approach for decision reliability studies is first proposed. Then, a case study with two decision situations with relatively different characteristics is presented. Qualitative and quantitative findings of the study are discussed. In very simple decision cases with time pressure, time reliability correlation proved out to be a feasible reliability modelling method. In all other decision situations, more advanced probabilistic decision models have to be used. Finally, decision probability assessment by using simulator run results and expert judgement is presented

  8. The Fukushima releases: an inverse modelling approach to assess the source term by using gamma dose rate observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunier, Olivier; Mathieu, Anne; Didier, Damien; Tombette, Marilyne; Quélo, Denis; Winiarek, Victor; Bocquet, Marc

    2013-04-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear accident and more recently the Fukushima accident highlighted that the largest source of error on consequences assessment is the source term estimation including the time evolution of the release rate and its distribution between radioisotopes. Inverse modelling methods have proved to be efficient to assess the source term due to accidental situation (Gudiksen, 1989, Krysta and Bocquet, 2007, Stohl et al 2011, Winiarek et al 2012). These methods combine environmental measurements and atmospheric dispersion models. They have been recently applied to the Fukushima accident. Most existing approaches are designed to use air sampling measurements (Winiarek et al, 2012) and some of them use also deposition measurements (Stohl et al, 2012, Winiarek et al, 2013). During the Fukushima accident, such measurements are far less numerous and not as well distributed within Japan than the dose rate measurements. To efficiently document the evolution of the contamination, gamma dose rate measurements were numerous, well distributed within Japan and they offered a high temporal frequency. However, dose rate data are not as easy to use as air sampling measurements and until now they were not used in inverse modelling approach. Indeed, dose rate data results from all the gamma emitters present in the ground and in the atmosphere in the vicinity of the receptor. They do not allow one to determine the isotopic composition or to distinguish the plume contribution from wet deposition. The presented approach proposes a way to use dose rate measurement in inverse modeling approach without the need of a-priori information on emissions. The method proved to be efficient and reliable when applied on the Fukushima accident. The emissions for the 8 main isotopes Xe-133, Cs-134, Cs-136, Cs-137, Ba-137m, I-131, I-132 and Te-132 have been assessed. The Daiichi power plant events (such as ventings, explosions…) known to have caused atmospheric releases are well identified in

  9. Evaporator modeling - A hybrid approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xudong; Cai Wenjian; Jia Lei; Wen Changyun

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid modeling approach is proposed to model two-phase flow evaporators. The main procedures for hybrid modeling includes: (1) Based on the energy and material balance, and thermodynamic principles to formulate the process fundamental governing equations; (2) Select input/output (I/O) variables responsible to the system performance which can be measured and controlled; (3) Represent those variables existing in the original equations but are not measurable as simple functions of selected I/Os or constants; (4) Obtaining a single equation which can correlate system inputs and outputs; and (5) Identify unknown parameters by linear or nonlinear least-squares methods. The method takes advantages of both physical and empirical modeling approaches and can accurately predict performance in wide operating range and in real-time, which can significantly reduce the computational burden and increase the prediction accuracy. The model is verified with the experimental data taken from a testing system. The testing results show that the proposed model can predict accurately the performance of the real-time operating evaporator with the maximum error of ±8%. The developed models will have wide applications in operational optimization, performance assessment, fault detection and diagnosis

  10. Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.

    1993-01-01

    The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)

  11. Road Assessment Model and Pilot Application in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiejun Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment of roads is an effective approach for road agencies to determine safety improvement investments. It can increases the cost-effective returns in crash and injury reductions. To get a powerful Chinese risk assessment model, Research Institute of Highway (RIOH is developing China Road Assessment Programme (ChinaRAP model to show the traffic crashes in China in partnership with International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP. The ChinaRAP model is based upon RIOH’s achievements and iRAP models. This paper documents part of ChinaRAP’s research work, mainly including the RIOH model and its pilot application in a province in China.

  12. Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-10-01

    The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a

  13. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR MODELING THE RURAL SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorbenkova Elena Vladimirovna

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Subject: the paper describes the research results on validation of a rural settlement developmental model. The basic methods and approaches for solving the problem of assessment of the urban and rural settlement development efficiency are considered. Research objectives: determination of methodological approaches to modeling and creating a model for the development of rural settlements. Materials and methods: domestic and foreign experience in modeling the territorial development of urban and rural settlements and settlement structures was generalized. The motivation for using the Pentagon-model for solving similar problems was demonstrated. Based on a systematic analysis of existing development models of urban and rural settlements as well as the authors-developed method for assessing the level of agro-towns development, the systems/factors that are necessary for a rural settlement sustainable development are identified. Results: we created the rural development model which consists of five major systems that include critical factors essential for achieving a sustainable development of a settlement system: ecological system, economic system, administrative system, anthropogenic (physical system and social system (supra-structure. The methodological approaches for creating an evaluation model of rural settlements development were revealed; the basic motivating factors that provide interrelations of systems were determined; the critical factors for each subsystem were identified and substantiated. Such an approach was justified by the composition of tasks for territorial planning of the local and state administration levels. The feasibility of applying the basic Pentagon-model, which was successfully used for solving the analogous problems of sustainable development, was shown. Conclusions: the resulting model can be used for identifying and substantiating the critical factors for rural sustainable development and also become the basis of

  14. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1994-12-01

    The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

  15. Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.; Wood, Thomas W.; Daly, Don S.; Brothers, Alan J.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Cook, Diane; Holder, Larry

    2011-09-29

    This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determine which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An

  16. Integrated assessment of the global warming problem. A decision-analytical approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

    1995-01-01

    The project on the title subject aims at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models. 4 figs., 5 refs

  17. A durability model incorporating safe life methodology and damage tolerance approach to assess first inspection and maintenance period for structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiong, J.J. [Aircraft Department, Beihang University, Beijing 100083 (China); Shenoi, R.A. [School of Engineering Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: r.a.shenoi@ship.soton.ac.uk

    2009-08-15

    This paper outlines a new durability model to assess the first inspection and maintenance period for structures. Practical scatter factor formulae are presented to determine the safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives from the results of a single full-scale test of a complete structure. New theoretical solutions are proposed to determine the s{sub a}-s{sub m}-N surfaces of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Prediction techniques are then developed to establish the relationship equation between safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives with a specific reliability level using a two-stage fatigue damage cumulative rule. A new durability model incorporating safe life and damage tolerance design approaches is derived to assess the first inspection and maintenance period. Finally, the proposed models are applied to assess the first inspection and maintenance period of a fastening structure at the root of helicopter blade.

  18. Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Fox-Lent, Cate; Read, Laura; Allen, Craig R; Arnott, James C; Bellini, Emanuele; Coaffee, Jon; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Hatfield, Kirk; Hyde, Iain; Hynes, William; Jovanovic, Aleksandar; Kasperson, Roger; Katzenberger, John; Keys, Patrick W; Lambert, James H; Moss, Richard; Murdoch, Peter S; Palma-Oliveira, Jose; Pulwarty, Roger S; Sands, Dale; Thomas, Edward A; Tye, Mari R; Woods, David

    2018-04-25

    Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  19. A fuzzy-logic-based approach to qualitative safety modelling for marine systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sii, H.S.; Ruxton, Tom; Wang Jin

    2001-01-01

    Safety assessment based on conventional tools (e.g. probability risk assessment (PRA)) may not be well suited for dealing with systems having a high level of uncertainty, particularly in the feasibility and concept design stages of a maritime or offshore system. By contrast, a safety model using fuzzy logic approach employing fuzzy IF-THEN rules can model the qualitative aspects of human knowledge and reasoning processes without employing precise quantitative analyses. A fuzzy-logic-based approach may be more appropriately used to carry out risk analysis in the initial design stages. This provides a tool for working directly with the linguistic terms commonly used in carrying out safety assessment. This research focuses on the development and representation of linguistic variables to model risk levels subjectively. These variables are then quantified using fuzzy sets. In this paper, the development of a safety model using fuzzy logic approach for modelling various design variables for maritime and offshore safety based decision making in the concept design stage is presented. An example is used to illustrate the proposed approach

  20. Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. de Brito

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP and analytical network process (ANP multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

  1. Towards a dynamic assessment of raw materials criticality: linking agent-based demand--with material flow supply modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoeri, Christof; Wäger, Patrick A; Stamp, Anna; Althaus, Hans-Joerg; Weil, Marcel

    2013-09-01

    Emerging technologies such as information and communication-, photovoltaic- or battery technologies are expected to increase significantly the demand for scarce metals in the near future. The recently developed methods to evaluate the criticality of mineral raw materials typically provide a 'snapshot' of the criticality of a certain material at one point in time by using static indicators both for supply risk and for the impacts of supply restrictions. While allowing for insights into the mechanisms behind the criticality of raw materials, these methods cannot account for dynamic changes in products and/or activities over time. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework intended to overcome these limitations by including the dynamic interactions between different possible demand and supply configurations. The framework integrates an agent-based behaviour model, where demand emerges from individual agent decisions and interaction, into a dynamic material flow model, representing the materials' stocks and flows. Within the framework, the environmental implications of substitution decisions are evaluated by applying life-cycle assessment methodology. The approach makes a first step towards a dynamic criticality assessment and will enhance the understanding of industrial substitution decisions and environmental implications related to critical metals. We discuss the potential and limitation of such an approach in contrast to state-of-the-art methods and how it might lead to criticality assessments tailored to the specific circumstances of single industrial sectors or individual companies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Smolarek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

  3. Remote handling dynamical modelling: assessment on new approach to enhance positioning accuracy with heavy load manipulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagarina-Sasia, T.; David, O.; Dubus, G.; Perrot, Y.; Riwain, A.

    2007-01-01

    In vessel maintenance work in Fusion Tokamak will be carried out with help several sets of robotic devices. Heavy loads handling in constrained space is identified by all players of the RH community as a key-issue in the latest Fusion Tokamak facilities. To deal with high-level dexterity tasks, high payload to mass ratio and limited operating space, RH equipment designers can only propose systems whose mechanical flexibility is no longer negligible and need to be taken into account in the control scheme. Traditional approaches where control system only includes a linear model of deformation of the structure leads to poor positioning accuracy. Uncontrolled or under evaluated errors could be damaging for in-vessel components during maintenance operations in the Tokamak facility. To address the control of complex flexible systems, we will investigate the use of specific mechanical software that combines both finite element and kinematical joints analyses, with a strong-coupled formulation, to perform system dynamics simulations. This procedure will be applied on a single axis mock up robotic joint with highly flexible structure. A comparison of experimental results with the traditional linear approach and the specified software model will be carried out. Benefits introduced by this new approach will finally be assessed in view of RH design or specification in the field of RH in Fusion Tokamak scale such as ITER. (orig.)

  4. A Two-Stage Multi-Agent Based Assessment Approach to Enhance Students' Learning Motivation through Negotiated Skills Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadli, Abdelhafid; Bendella, Fatima; Tranvouez, Erwan

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present an Agent-based evaluation approach in a context of Multi-agent simulation learning systems. Our evaluation model is based on a two stage assessment approach: (1) a Distributed skill evaluation combining agents and fuzzy sets theory; and (2) a Negotiation based evaluation of students' performance during a training…

  5. Large scale debris-flow hazard assessment: a geotechnical approach and GIS modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Delmonaco

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A deterministic distributed model has been developed for large-scale debris-flow hazard analysis in the basin of River Vezza (Tuscany Region – Italy. This area (51.6 km 2 was affected by over 250 landslides. These were classified as debris/earth flow mainly involving the metamorphic geological formations outcropping in the area, triggered by the pluviometric event of 19 June 1996. In the last decades landslide hazard and risk analysis have been favoured by the development of GIS techniques permitting the generalisation, synthesis and modelling of stability conditions on a large scale investigation (>1:10 000. In this work, the main results derived by the application of a geotechnical model coupled with a hydrological model for the assessment of debris flows hazard analysis, are reported. This analysis has been developed starting by the following steps: landslide inventory map derived by aerial photo interpretation, direct field survey, generation of a database and digital maps, elaboration of a DTM and derived themes (i.e. slope angle map, definition of a superficial soil thickness map, geotechnical soil characterisation through implementation of a backanalysis on test slopes, laboratory test analysis, inference of the influence of precipitation, for distinct return times, on ponding time and pore pressure generation, implementation of a slope stability model (infinite slope model and generalisation of the safety factor for estimated rainfall events with different return times. Such an approach has allowed the identification of potential source areas of debris flow triggering. This is used to detected precipitation events with estimated return time of 10, 50, 75 and 100 years. The model shows a dramatic decrease of safety conditions for the simulation when is related to a 75 years return time rainfall event. It corresponds to an estimated cumulated daily intensity of 280–330 mm. This value can be considered the hydrological triggering

  6. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  7. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  9. Understanding National Models for Climate Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, A.; Weingartner, K.

    2017-12-01

    National-level climate assessments have been produced or are underway in a number of countries. These efforts showcase a variety of approaches to mapping climate impacts onto human and natural systems, and involve a variety of development processes, organizational structures, and intended purposes. This presentation will provide a comparative overview of national `models' for climate assessments worldwide, drawing from a geographically diverse group of nations with varying capacities to conduct such assessments. Using an illustrative sampling of assessment models, the presentation will highlight the range of assessment mandates and requirements that drive this work, methodologies employed, focal areas, and the degree to which international dimensions are included for each nation's assessment. This not only allows the U.S. National Climate Assessment to be better understood within an international context, but provides the user with an entry point into other national climate assessments around the world, enabling a better understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities societies face.

  10. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.; Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  11. Sequential simulation approach to modeling of multi-seam coal deposits with an application to the assessment of a Louisiana lignite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olea, Ricardo A.; Luppens, James A.

    2012-01-01

    There are multiple ways to characterize uncertainty in the assessment of coal resources, but not all of them are equally satisfactory. Increasingly, the tendency is toward borrowing from the statistical tools developed in the last 50 years for the quantitative assessment of other mineral commodities. Here, we briefly review the most recent of such methods and formulate a procedure for the systematic assessment of multi-seam coal deposits taking into account several geological factors, such as fluctuations in thickness, erosion, oxidation, and bed boundaries. A lignite deposit explored in three stages is used for validating models based on comparing a first set of drill holes against data from infill and development drilling. Results were fully consistent with reality, providing a variety of maps, histograms, and scatterplots characterizing the deposit and associated uncertainty in the assessments. The geostatistical approach was particularly informative in providing a probability distribution modeling deposit wide uncertainty about total resources and a cumulative distribution of coal tonnage as a function of local uncertainty.

  12. Assessment of Working Scientifically--The TAPS Focused Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Kendra

    2018-01-01

    The Teacher Assessment in Primary Science (TAPS) Focused Assessment approach embeds assessment within normal classroom science activities. Essentially, a Focused Assessment is a lesson plan for a science inquiry, with an identified focus for assessment and guidance on how to interpret the children's responses in relation to expectations for that…

  13. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  14. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  15. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  16. Stakeholder participation in health impact assessment: A multicultural approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negev, Maya; Davidovitch, Nadav; Garb, Yaakov; Tal, Alon

    2013-01-01

    The literature on impact assessment (HIA) registers the importance of stakeholder participation in the assessment process, but still lacks a model for engaging stakeholders of diverse ethnic, professional and sectorial backgrounds. This paper suggests that the multicultural approach can contribute to HIA through a revision of the generic 5-step HIA model, and its implementation in a metropolitan plan in Southern Israel. The health issue scoped by the stakeholders in the HIA is related to land uses in the vicinity of the national hazardous industry and hazardous waste site. The stakeholders were representatives of the diverse populations at stake, including rural Bedouins and Jewish city dwellers, as well as representatives from the public sector, private sector, non-governmental organizations and academia. The case study revealed that a multicultural stakeholder participation process helps to uncover health issues known to the community which were not addressed in the original plan, and provides local knowledge regarding health conditions that is especially valuable when scientific data is uncertain or absent. It enables diverse stakeholders to prioritize the health issues that will be assessed. The case study also reveals ways in which the model needs revisions and improvements such as in recruitment of diverse participants. This paper presents a multicultural model of HIA and discusses some of the challenges that are faced when HIA is implemented in the context of current decision-making culture. -- Highlights: • We revised the generic HIA model in light of the multicultural approach. • We tested the model in a case study of zoning a hazardous industry site. • Multicultural stakeholder participation uncovers health issues known to communities. • It enables community prioritization of health issues. • We present a model for multicultural stakeholder participation in HIA

  17. Stakeholder participation in health impact assessment: A multicultural approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Negev, Maya, E-mail: mayane@tau.ac.il [Hartog School of Government and Policy, Faculty of Social Sciences, Tel Aviv University, P.O.B. 39040, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel); Davidovitch, Nadav, E-mail: nadavd@bgu.ac.il [Department of Health Systems Management, Faculty of Health Sciences, Ben-Gurion University, P.O.B. 653, Be' er Sheva 84105 (Israel); Garb, Yaakov, E-mail: ygarb@bgu.ac.il [Swiss Institute for Dryland Environmental Research, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer 84990 (Israel); Tal, Alon, E-mail: alontal@bgu.ac.il [Mitrani Department of Dryland Ecology, Swiss Institute for Dryland Environmental Research, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer 84990 (Israel)

    2013-11-15

    The literature on impact assessment (HIA) registers the importance of stakeholder participation in the assessment process, but still lacks a model for engaging stakeholders of diverse ethnic, professional and sectorial backgrounds. This paper suggests that the multicultural approach can contribute to HIA through a revision of the generic 5-step HIA model, and its implementation in a metropolitan plan in Southern Israel. The health issue scoped by the stakeholders in the HIA is related to land uses in the vicinity of the national hazardous industry and hazardous waste site. The stakeholders were representatives of the diverse populations at stake, including rural Bedouins and Jewish city dwellers, as well as representatives from the public sector, private sector, non-governmental organizations and academia. The case study revealed that a multicultural stakeholder participation process helps to uncover health issues known to the community which were not addressed in the original plan, and provides local knowledge regarding health conditions that is especially valuable when scientific data is uncertain or absent. It enables diverse stakeholders to prioritize the health issues that will be assessed. The case study also reveals ways in which the model needs revisions and improvements such as in recruitment of diverse participants. This paper presents a multicultural model of HIA and discusses some of the challenges that are faced when HIA is implemented in the context of current decision-making culture. -- Highlights: • We revised the generic HIA model in light of the multicultural approach. • We tested the model in a case study of zoning a hazardous industry site. • Multicultural stakeholder participation uncovers health issues known to communities. • It enables community prioritization of health issues. • We present a model for multicultural stakeholder participation in HIA.

  18. A deterministic approach for performance assessment and optimization of power distribution units in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Ghaderi, S.F.; Omrani, H.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a deterministic approach for performance assessment and optimization of power distribution units in Iran. The deterministic approach is composed of data envelopment analysis (DEA), principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation techniques. Seventeen electricity distribution units have been considered for the purpose of this study. Previous studies have generally used input-output DEA models for benchmarking and evaluation of electricity distribution units. However, this study considers an integrated deterministic DEA-PCA approach since the DEA model should be verified and validated by a robust multivariate methodology such as PCA. Moreover, the DEA models are verified and validated by PCA, Spearman and Kendall's Tau correlation techniques, while previous studies do not have the verification and validation features. Also, both input- and output-oriented DEA models are used for sensitivity analysis of the input and output variables. Finally, this is the first study to present an integrated deterministic approach for assessment and optimization of power distributions in Iran

  19. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  20. A Composite Modelling Approach to Decision Support by the Use of the CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a decision support system for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The composite modelling approach, COSIMA, combines a cost-benefit analysis by use of the CBA-DK model with multi-criteria analysis applying the AHP and SMARTER techniques. The modelling uncertaintie...

  1. Graphical approach to assess the soil fertility evaluation model validity for rice (case study: southern area of Merapi Mountain, Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julianto, E. A.; Suntoro, W. A.; Dewi, W. S.; Partoyo

    2018-03-01

    Climate change has been reported to exacerbate land resources degradation including soil fertility decline. The appropriate validity use on soil fertility evaluation could reduce the risk of climate change effect on plant cultivation. This study aims to assess the validity of a Soil Fertility Evaluation Model using a graphical approach. The models evaluated were the Indonesian Soil Research Center (PPT) version model, the FAO Unesco version model, and the Kyuma version model. Each model was then correlated with rice production (dry grain weight/GKP). The goodness of fit of each model can be tested to evaluate the quality and validity of a model, as well as the regression coefficient (R2). This research used the Eviews 9 programme by a graphical approach. The results obtained three curves, namely actual, fitted, and residual curves. If the actual and fitted curves are widely apart or irregular, this means that the quality of the model is not good, or there are many other factors that are still not included in the model (large residual) and conversely. Indeed, if the actual and fitted curves show exactly the same shape, it means that all factors have already been included in the model. Modification of the standard soil fertility evaluation models can improve the quality and validity of a model.

  2. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  3. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  4. A possibilistic analysis approach for environmental risk assessment of petroleum-contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Huang, G.H.; Fuller, G.A.

    1999-01-01

    A possibilistic approach for assessing risks associated with petroleum-contaminated sites is provided. The approach is applied to an illustrative case study in order to show its applicability and implementation for decision making in effective site remediation and management. The approach consists of three main parts: (1) the determination of fuzzy steady state contaminant concentrations in a aquifer based on an analytical solute transport model; (2) possibilistic analysis of fuzzy criteria for different risk levels; and (3) environmental risk assessment based on the Euclidian method. Based on results from an illustrative case study, environmental risks at a petroleum-contaminated site can be effectively evaluated using the developed methodology. The risk assessment framework can effectively handle uncertainities presented as fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy nature of water quality and risk level criteria were seen in the related simulation and evaluation models, and the framework is especially useful for situations in which probabilistic information is not available. This use of this approach is new in the area of petroleum waste management under uncertainty, and its results are useful for the related site remediation and management decisions. 36 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  5. Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

    2012-04-01

    With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

  6. Operations Assessment of Launch Vehicle Architectures using Activity Based Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.; McCleskey, Carey

    2000-01-01

    The growing emphasis on affordability for space transportation systems requires the assessment of new space vehicles for all life cycle activities, from design and development, through manufacturing and operations. This paper addresses the operational assessment of launch vehicles, focusing on modeling the ground support requirements of a vehicle architecture, and estimating the resulting costs and flight rate. This paper proposes the use of Activity Based Costing (ABC) modeling for this assessment. The model uses expert knowledge to determine the activities, the activity times and the activity costs based on vehicle design characteristics. The approach provides several advantages to current approaches to vehicle architecture assessment including easier validation and allowing vehicle designers to understand the cost and cycle time drivers.

  7. Simulation Modeling of Resilience Assessment in Indonesian Fertiliser Industry Supply Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utami, I. D.; Holt, R. J.; McKay, A.

    2018-01-01

    Supply network resilience is a significant aspect in the performance of the Indonesian fertiliser industry. Decision makers use risk assessment and port management reports to evaluate the availability of infrastructure. An opportunity was identified to incorporate both types of data into an approach for the measurement of resilience. A framework, based on a synthesis of literature and interviews with industry practitioners, covering both social and technical factors is introduced. A simulation model was then built to allow managers to explore implications for resilience and predict levels of risk in different scenarios. Result of interview with respondens from Indonesian fertiliser industry indicated that the simulation model could be valuable in the assessment. This paper provides details of the simulation model for decision makers to explore levels of risk in supply networks. For practitioners, the model could be used by government to assess the current condition of supply networks in Indonesian industries. On the other hand, for academia, the approach provides a new application of agent-based models in research on supply network resilience and presents a real example of how agent-based modeling could be used as to support the assessment approach.

  8. Fuel cycle assessment: A compendium of models, methodologies, and approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-07-01

    The purpose of this document is to profile analytical tools and methods which could be used in a total fuel cycle analysis. The information in this document provides a significant step towards: (1) Characterizing the stages of the fuel cycle. (2) Identifying relevant impacts which can feasibly be evaluated quantitatively or qualitatively. (3) Identifying and reviewing other activities that have been conducted to perform a fuel cycle assessment or some component thereof. (4) Reviewing the successes/deficiencies and opportunities/constraints of previous activities. (5) Identifying methods and modeling techniques/tools that are available, tested and could be used for a fuel cycle assessment.

  9. Assessment of Safety and Functional Efficacy of Stem Cell-Based Therapeutic Approaches Using Retinal Degenerative Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Chi Lin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Dysfunction and death of retinal pigment epithelium (RPE and or photoreceptors can lead to irreversible vision loss. The eye represents an ideal microenvironment for stem cell-based therapy. It is considered an “immune privileged” site, and the number of cells needed for therapy is relatively low for the area of focused vision (macula. Further, surgical placement of stem cell-derived grafts (RPE, retinal progenitors, and photoreceptor precursors into the vitreous cavity or subretinal space has been well established. For preclinical tests, assessments of stem cell-derived graft survival and functionality are conducted in animal models by various noninvasive approaches and imaging modalities. In vivo experiments conducted in animal models based on replacing photoreceptors and/or RPE cells have shown survival and functionality of the transplanted cells, rescue of the host retina, and improvement of visual function. Based on the positive results obtained from these animal experiments, human clinical trials are being initiated. Despite such progress in stem cell research, ethical, regulatory, safety, and technical difficulties still remain a challenge for the transformation of this technique into a standard clinical approach. In this review, the current status of preclinical safety and efficacy studies for retinal cell replacement therapies conducted in animal models will be discussed.

  10. Austria's wind energy potential – A participatory modeling approach to assess socio-political and market acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Höltinger, Stefan; Salak, Boris; Schauppenlehner, Thomas; Scherhaufer, Patrick; Schmidt, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Techno-economic assessments confirm the potential of wind energy to contribute to a low carbon bioeconomy. The increasing diffusion of wind energy, however, has turned wind energy acceptance into a significant barrier with respect to the deployment of wind turbines. This article assesses whether, and at what cost, Austrian renewable energy targets can be met under different expansion scenarios considering the socio-political and market acceptance of wind energy. Land-use scenarios have been defined in a participatory modeling approach with stakeholders from various interest groups. We calculated the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for all of the potential wind turbine sites, which we used to generate wind energy supply curves. The results show that wind energy production could be expanded to 20% of the final end energy demand in three out of four scenarios. However, more restrictive criteria increase LCOE by up to 20%. In contrast to common views that see local opposition against wind projects as the main barrier for wind power expansion, our participatory modeling approach indicates that even on the level of key stakeholders, the future possible contribution of wind energy to Austrian renewable energy targets reaches from almost no further expansion to very high shares of wind energy. - Highlights: • Including social barriers could reduce Austria’s wind potential from 92.78 to 3.89 TWh • Costs for attaining a 20% wind energy share vary by 20% between the scenarios • Socially acceptable wind area potential ranges from 0.1 to 3.9% of Austria’s total area • Excluding forest areas lowers the maximum wind energy potential by 45%

  11. A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

    2016-08-25

    It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

  12. Using ecosystem modelling techniques in exposure assessments of radionuclides - an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, L.

    2005-01-01

    The risk to humans from potential releases from nuclear facilities is evaluated in safety assessments. Essential components of these assessments are exposure models, which estimate the transport of radionuclides in the environment, the uptake in biota, and transfer to humans. Recently, there has been a growing concern for radiological protection of the whole environment, not only humans, and a first attempt has been to employ model approaches based on stylized environments and transfer functions to biota based exclusively on bioconcentration factors (BCF). They are generally of a non-mechanistic nature and involve no knowledge of the actual processes involved, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. in this paper, the possibility of using an ecological modelling approach as a complement or an alternative to the use of BCF-based models is discussed. The paper gives an overview of ecological and ecosystem modelling and examples of studies where ecosystem models have been used in association to ecological risk assessment studies for other pollutants than radionuclides. It also discusses the potential to use this technique in exposure assessments of radionuclides with a few examples from the safety assessment work performed by the Swedish nuclear fuel and waste management company (SKB). Finally there is a comparison of the characteristics of ecosystem models and traditionally exposure models for radionuclides used to estimate the radionuclide exposure of biota. The evaluation of ecosystem models already applied in safety assessments has shown that the ecosystem approach is possible to use to assess exposure to biota, and that it can handle many of the modelling problems identified related to BCF-models. The findings in this paper suggest that both national and international assessment frameworks for protection of the environment from ionising radiation would benefit from striving to adopt methodologies based on ecologically sound principles and

  13. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu Shenping [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: sphu@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Fang Quangen [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: qgfang@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xia Haibo [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: hbxia@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn; Xi Yongtao [Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550, Pudong Dadao, Shanghai 200135 (China)]. E-mail: xiyt@mmc.shmtu.edu.cn

    2007-03-15

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice.

  14. Formal safety assessment based on relative risks model in ship navigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Shenping; Fang Quangen; Xia Haibo; Xi Yongtao

    2007-01-01

    Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology aiming at enhancing maritime safety. It has been gradually and broadly used in the shipping industry nowadays around the world. On the basis of analysis and conclusion of FSA approach, this paper discusses quantitative risk assessment and generic risk model in FSA, especially frequency and severity criteria in ship navigation. Then it puts forward a new model based on relative risk assessment (MRRA). The model presents a risk-assessment approach based on fuzzy functions and takes five factors into account, including detailed information about accident characteristics. It has already been used for the assessment of pilotage safety in Shanghai harbor, China. Consequently, it can be proved that MRRA is a useful method to solve the problems in the risk assessment of ship navigation safety in practice

  15. Criteria to assess the quality of the Dutch Informal Pro-active Approach Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marseille, A.T.; de Graaf, K.J.; Dragos, D.C.; Lafarge, F.

    2012-01-01

    If citizens in the Netherlands do not agree with a decision of a public authority, they can submit a written objection. The Informal Pro-active Approach Model (or “informal approach”) provides an alternative for the traditional conflict resolution procedures. This informal approach has led to a

  16. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  17. Exploring Academics' Approaches to Managing Team Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augar, Naomi; Woodley, Carolyn J.; Whitefield, Despina; Winchester, Maxwell

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop an understanding of academics' approaches to managing team assessment at an Australian University with a view to informing policy development and assessment design. Design/methodology/approach: The research was conducted using a single exploratory case study approach focussing on the team assessment…

  18. An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

    2003-07-01

    analyses and hypothesis tests as a part of the validation step to provide feedback to analysts and modelers. Decisions on how to proceed in making model-based predictions are made based on these analyses together with the application requirements. Updating modifying and understanding the boundaries associated with the model are also assisted through this feedback. (4) We include a ''model supplement term'' when model problems are indicated. This term provides a (bias) correction to the model so that it will better match the experimental results and more accurately account for uncertainty. Presumably, as the models continue to develop and are used for future applications, the causes for these apparent biases will be identified and the need for this supplementary modeling will diminish. (5) We use a response-modeling approach for our predictions that allows for general types of prediction and for assessment of prediction uncertainty. This approach is demonstrated through a case study supporting the assessment of a weapons response when subjected to a hydrocarbon fuel fire. The foam decomposition model provides an important element of the response of a weapon system in this abnormal thermal environment. Rigid foam is used to encapsulate critical components in the weapon system providing the needed mechanical support as well as thermal isolation. Because the foam begins to decompose at temperatures above 250 C, modeling the decomposition is critical to assessing a weapons response. In the validation analysis it is indicated that the model tends to ''exaggerate'' the effect of temperature changes when compared to the experimental results. The data, however, are too few and to restricted in terms of experimental design to make confident statements regarding modeling problems. For illustration, we assume these indications are correct and compensate for this apparent bias by constructing a model supplement term for use in the model

  19. STRUCTURE OF MODELS FOR AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL RISK COMMERCIAL BANKS

    OpenAIRE

    G. Kryshtal

    2016-01-01

    Conceptual approaches use a structural model for assessment of financial risk commercial banks, namely the risk measurement in combination: a comparison of its capital, calculated based on the standard approach of Basel II advanced approaches of Basel II and the structural model. Analysis of the application of the model in a economics crisis situation, such as the capital adequacy of the commercial banks. Deals with a unified approach to the choice of measure and its risk parameters to measur...

  20. Tailored model abstraction in performance assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kessler, J.H.

    1995-01-01

    Total System Performance Assessments (TSPAs) are likely to be one of the most significant parts of making safety cases for the continued development and licensing of geologic repositories for the disposal of spent fuel and HLW. Thus, it is critical that the TSPA model capture the 'essence' of the physical processes relevant to demonstrating the appropriate regulation is met. But how much detail about the physical processes must be modeled and understood before there is enough confidence that the appropriate essence has been captured? In this summary the level of model abstraction that is required is discussed. Approaches for subsystem and total system performance analyses are outlined, and the role of best estimate models is examined. It is concluded that a conservative approach for repository performance, based on limited amount of field and laboratory data, can provide sufficient confidence for a regulatory decision

  1. Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2017-08-07

    Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying the event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.

  2. Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

    2016-04-01

    The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

  3. Overview of the FEP analysis approach to model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report heads a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A five stage approach has been adopted, which provides a systematic framework for addressing uncertainty and for the documentation of all modelling decisions and assumptions. The five stages are as follows: Stage 1: EP Analysis - compilation and structuring of a FEP database; Stage 2: Scenario and Conceptual Model Development; Stage 3: Mathematical Model Development; Stage 4: Software Development; Stage 5: confidence Building. This report describes the development and structuring of a FEP database as a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) and explains how this may be used to identify different modelling scenarios, based upon the identification of scenario -defining FEPs. The methodology describes how the possible evolution of a repository system can be addressed in terms of a base scenario, a broad and reasonable representation of the 'natural' evolution of the system, and a number of variant scenarios, representing the effects of probabilistic events and processes. The MDD has been used to identify conceptual models to represent the base scenario and the interactions between these conceptual models have been systematically reviewed using a matrix diagram technique. This has led to the identification of modelling requirements for the base scenario, against which existing assessment software capabilities have been reviewed. A mechanism for combining probabilistic scenario-defining FEPs to construct multi-FEP variant scenarios has been proposed and trialled using the concept of a 'timeline', a defined sequence of events, from which consequences can be assessed. An iterative approach, based on conservative modelling principles, has been proposed for the evaluation of

  4. SLS Navigation Model-Based Design Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan; Geohagan, Kevin; Bernard, Bill; Park, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The SLS Program chose to implement a Model-based Design and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team has been responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for the navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1-B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper provides a discussion of the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the Navigation components. These include composing system requirements, requirements verification, model development, model verification and validation, and modeling and analysis approaches. The Model-based Design and Requirements approach does not reduce the effort associated with the design process versus previous processes used at Marshall Space Flight Center. Instead, the approach takes advantage of overlap between the requirements development and management process, and the design and analysis process by efficiently combining the control (i.e. the requirement) and the design mechanisms. The design mechanism is the representation of the component behavior and performance in design and analysis tools. The focus in the early design process shifts from the development and

  5. Geographic and temporal validity of prediction models: Different approaches were useful to examine model performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We

  6. Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

    2013-12-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences

  7. Assessing Transition Service for Handicapped Youth: A Cooperative Interagency Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stodden, Robert A.; Boone, Rosalie

    1987-01-01

    The article presents a cooperative interagency approach for assessing effectiveness of programs and services to facilitate the transition of handicapped students from school to adult community living. Features of the model include cooperative planning at the policy level, implementation level, and direct service level; and collaboration by state…

  8. An integrated approach coupling physically based models and probabilistic method to assess quantitatively landslide susceptibility at different scale: application to different geomorphological environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandromme, Rosalie; Thiéry, Yannick; Sedan, Olivier; Bernardie, Séverine

    2016-04-01

    Landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of a target area where landslides of a particular type, volume, runout and intensity may occur within a given period. The first step to analyze landslide hazard consists in assessing the spatial and temporal failure probability (when the information is available, i.e. susceptibility assessment). Two types of approach are generally recommended to achieve this goal: (i) qualitative approach (i.e. inventory based methods and knowledge data driven methods) and (ii) quantitative approach (i.e. data-driven methods or deterministic physically based methods). Among quantitative approaches, deterministic physically based methods (PBM) are generally used at local and/or site-specific scales (1:5,000-1:25,000 and >1:5,000, respectively). The main advantage of these methods is the calculation of probability of failure (safety factor) following some specific environmental conditions. For some models it is possible to integrate the land-uses and climatic change. At the opposite, major drawbacks are the large amounts of reliable and detailed data (especially materials type, their thickness and the geotechnical parameters heterogeneity over a large area) and the fact that only shallow landslides are taking into account. This is why they are often used at site-specific scales (> 1:5,000). Thus, to take into account (i) materials' heterogeneity , (ii) spatial variation of physical parameters, (iii) different landslide types, the French Geological Survey (i.e. BRGM) has developed a physically based model (PBM) implemented in a GIS environment. This PBM couples a global hydrological model (GARDENIA®) including a transient unsaturated/saturated hydrological component with a physically based model computing the stability of slopes (ALICE®, Assessment of Landslides Induced by Climatic Events) based on the Morgenstern-Price method for any slip surface. The variability of mechanical parameters is handled by Monte Carlo approach. The

  9. Model-centric approaches for the development of health information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomainen, Mika; Mykkänen, Juha; Luostarinen, Heli; Pöyhölä, Assi; Paakkanen, Esa

    2007-01-01

    Modeling is used increasingly in healthcare to increase shared knowledge, to improve the processes, and to document the requirements of the solutions related to health information systems (HIS). There are numerous modeling approaches which aim to support these aims, but a careful assessment of their strengths, weaknesses and deficiencies is needed. In this paper, we compare three model-centric approaches in the context of HIS development: the Model-Driven Architecture, Business Process Modeling with BPMN and BPEL and the HL7 Development Framework. The comparison reveals that all these approaches are viable candidates for the development of HIS. However, they have distinct strengths and abstraction levels, they require local and project-specific adaptation and offer varying levels of automation. In addition, illustration of the solutions to the end users must be improved.

  10. Development of a GIS approach to mining risk assessment. Supervising Scientist report 159

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boggs, G.S.

    2001-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS) offers a means by which the data collected during the assessment of possible mining impacts can be stored and manipulated. A GIS that provides a central focus point for the storage, manipulation and retrieval of information generated by the investigation into the geomorphological impact of the ERA Jabiluka Mine has been developed. Implementing a flexible, GIS-centred approach to data management allows the data storage, manipulation and retrieval powers of GIS to be retained whilst maintaining access to the functionality contained within these other software packages. The GIS has also been linked to the DistFW hydrology model and SIBERIA landform evolution model, to provide a more spatial approach to assessing the impact of mining on the long-term landform evolution of a catchment. A GIS based rapid erosion assessment method has been developed and evaluated. The method allows the user to quickly acquire and evaluate existing data to assist in the planning of more detailed monitoring, modelling and erosion assessment programs. The rapid erosion assessment method is based on a simplified version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and allows the rapid parametrisation of the model from widely available land unit and elevation datasets. The rapid erosion assessment method is evaluated through the investigation of the effects of elevation data resolution on erosion predictions and field data validation. More detailed, quantitative risk assessment can be conducted using a combination of landform evolution modelling and basin analysis in a GIS framework. SIBERIA has been parameterized using field data from Ngarradj and applied to the catchment. Due to complexities of the catchment there were some difficulties with the hydrology component. However, the results indicate that SIBERIA is suitable and simulations showed little change in the catchment in the long term. Combining these with newly developed GIS tools to

  11. GENERIC APPROACH IN CHOICE OF ADEQUATE METHODOLOGY FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF IT INVESTMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melita Kozina

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Investments into information technology (IT, (hereinafter: IT investments havereached very high figures, which are still continually on the rise. IT potentials are being usedin an increasing number of ways. Various company managers have different approaches tothis issue. A large number of methods/models for the assessment of IT investments isavailable, so the question is posed of how to choose the adequate assessment category. Thesaid reasons have initiated a need for defining the generic approach in the choice ofadequate methodology for the assessment of IT investments, which was indeed the goal ofthis paper. General ideas to this approach stem from the fact that each IT investment has itspurpose and belongs to a certain type of IT investment (decision-making aspect whichdemands its relevant methodology for assessing IT investments. Two groups of demands(conditions have been defined in choosing relevant methodology. The first group pertains tomethodology analysis and determination of its compatibility with characteristics of thedefined decision-making aspect. The second group of conditions pertains to methodologyanalysis with respect to its possibilities (abilities of integrating quantity, quality and riskfactors of IT decision. Conducted field research shows that the assessment of IT investmentshas been done mainly using simpler methods/models and their combinations, and is focusedon quantity aspects of IT values.

  12. Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2013-04-01

    SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

  13. Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.

  14. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  15. Spatial variability and parametric uncertainty in performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James; Painter, Scott; Tomishima, Yasuo

    2011-01-01

    The problem of defining an appropriate treatment of distribution functions (which could represent spatial variability or parametric uncertainty) is examined based on a generic performance assessment model for a high-level waste repository. The generic model incorporated source term models available in GoldSim ® , the TDRW code for contaminant transport in sparse fracture networks with a complex fracture-matrix interaction process, and a biosphere dose model known as BDOSE TM . Using the GoldSim framework, several Monte Carlo sampling approaches and transport conceptualizations were evaluated to explore the effect of various treatments of spatial variability and parametric uncertainty on dose estimates. Results from a model employing a representative source and ensemble-averaged pathway properties were compared to results from a model allowing for stochastic variation of transport properties along streamline segments (i.e., explicit representation of spatial variability within a Monte Carlo realization). We concluded that the sampling approach and the definition of an ensemble representative do influence consequence estimates. In the examples analyzed in this paper, approaches considering limited variability of a transport resistance parameter along a streamline increased the frequency of fast pathways resulting in relatively high dose estimates, while those allowing for broad variability along streamlines increased the frequency of 'bottlenecks' reducing dose estimates. On this basis, simplified approaches with limited consideration of variability may suffice for intended uses of the performance assessment model, such as evaluation of site safety. (author)

  16. Biotic interactions in the face of climate change: a comparison of three modelling approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Jaeschke

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter biotic interactions, and may lead to temporal and spatial mismatches of interacting species. Although the importance of interactions for climate change risk assessments is increasingly acknowledged in observational and experimental studies, biotic interactions are still rarely incorporated in species distribution models. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the obligate interaction between Aeshna viridis and its egg-laying plant Stratiotes aloides in Europe, based on an ensemble modelling technique. We compared three different approaches for incorporating biotic interactions in distribution models: (1 We separately modelled each species based on climatic information, and intersected the future range overlap ('overlap approach'. (2 We modelled the potential future distribution of A. viridis with the projected occurrence probability of S. aloides as further predictor in addition to climate ('explanatory variable approach'. (3 We calibrated the model of A. viridis in the current range of S. aloides and multiplied the future occurrence probabilities of both species ('reference area approach'. Subsequently, all approaches were compared to a single species model of A. viridis without interactions. All approaches projected a range expansion for A. viridis. Model performance on test data and amount of range gain differed depending on the biotic interaction approach. All interaction approaches yielded lower range gains (up to 667% lower than the model without interaction. Regarding the contribution of algorithm and approach to the overall uncertainty, the main part of explained variation stems from the modelling algorithm, and only a small part is attributed to the modelling approach. The comparison of the no-interaction model with the three interaction approaches emphasizes the importance of including obligate biotic interactions in projective species distribution modelling. We recommend the use of

  17. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  18. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  19. Mixture modeling methods for the assessment of normal and abnormal personality, part II: longitudinal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Aidan G C; Hallquist, Michael N

    2014-01-01

    Studying personality and its pathology as it changes, develops, or remains stable over time offers exciting insight into the nature of individual differences. Researchers interested in examining personal characteristics over time have a number of time-honored analytic approaches at their disposal. In recent years there have also been considerable advances in person-oriented analytic approaches, particularly longitudinal mixture models. In this methodological primer we focus on mixture modeling approaches to the study of normative and individual change in the form of growth mixture models and ipsative change in the form of latent transition analysis. We describe the conceptual underpinnings of each of these models, outline approaches for their implementation, and provide accessible examples for researchers studying personality and its assessment.

  20. A Nordic approach to impact assessment of accidents with nuclear-propelled vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reistad, O.; Hustveit, S.; Palsson, S.E.; Hoe, S.; Lahtinen, J.

    2012-11-01

    The MareNuc project has identified the parameters in a graded approach to impact assessment for marine nuclear reactors. The graded approach is founded on the following elements: 1) More detailed understanding of previous accidents in nuclear-propelled vessels (initiating events, accident developments, release fractions), including release mechanisms (radionuclide retention in vessel construction); 2) Bench-marking of release scenarios using modelling tools applied in the Nordic countries, in addition to demonstration of generally accessible and free software developed by the IAEA; 3) Other systematic approaches to safety assessments of vessel port calls, and to the design and maintenance of emergency preparedness systems; More specifically, increased emphasis compared to earlier analysis after the Kursk accident is given to the engineered vessel barriers. Relevant standards from impact assessments for commercial nuclear power plants have been identified, such as from the NUREG series. The Nordic approaches to safety evaluation, impact assessments and emergency preparedness organisation was also reported as part of the project. The Canadian approach for international port calls was carefully reported and assessed as part of the project, and commended for its broad and comprehensive approach to reactor and vessel design for the nationalities involved, to the design and maintenance of emergency preparedness systems, and the well-structured and broad cooperation between civilian and military institutions. This approach goes beyond the current approach in the Nordic countries, also in the case of Norway, which experience regular port calls from allied nuclear navies. The overall result is a broader understanding in the Nordic countries for the importance of the various parameters for impact assessment of releases from marine reactors, and to the design and maintenance of an emergency preparedness organisation without detailed knowledge of the installation in question

  1. A Nordic approach to impact assessment of accidents with nuclear-propelled vessels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reistad, O. [Institute for Energy Technology, Kjeller (Norway); Hustveit, S. [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Oesteraes (Norway); Palsson, S.E. [Icelandic Radiation Safety Authority, Reykjavik (Iceland); Hoe, S. [Danish Emergency Management Agency, Birkeroed (Denmark); Lahtinen, J. [STUK, Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-11-15

    The MareNuc project has identified the parameters in a graded approach to impact assessment for marine nuclear reactors. The graded approach is founded on the following elements: 1) More detailed understanding of previous accidents in nuclear-propelled vessels (initiating events, accident developments, release fractions), including release mechanisms (radionuclide retention in vessel construction); 2) Bench-marking of release scenarios using modelling tools applied in the Nordic countries, in addition to demonstration of generally accessible and free software developed by the IAEA; 3) Other systematic approaches to safety assessments of vessel port calls, and to the design and maintenance of emergency preparedness systems; More specifically, increased emphasis compared to earlier analysis after the Kursk accident is given to the engineered vessel barriers. Relevant standards from impact assessments for commercial nuclear power plants have been identified, such as from the NUREG series. The Nordic approaches to safety evaluation, impact assessments and emergency preparedness organisation was also reported as part of the project. The Canadian approach for international port calls was carefully reported and assessed as part of the project, and commended for its broad and comprehensive approach to reactor and vessel design for the nationalities involved, to the design and maintenance of emergency preparedness systems, and the well-structured and broad cooperation between civilian and military institutions. This approach goes beyond the current approach in the Nordic countries, also in the case of Norway, which experience regular port calls from allied nuclear navies. The overall result is a broader understanding in the Nordic countries for the importance of the various parameters for impact assessment of releases from marine reactors, and to the design and maintenance of an emergency preparedness organisation without detailed knowledge of the installation in question

  2. Assessing approaches for dissemination of research information to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mo

    Assessing approaches for dissemination of research information to farmers within their ... to soil improvement, NAADS had a wide scope that included animal husbandry. Farmers .... the Problem Solving Approach that involves defining the approach ..... Assessing the Quality of Participation in Farmers' Research Groups.

  3. Integrated approach to assess ecosystem health in harbor areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebianno, M J; Pereira, C G; Rey, F; Cravo, A; Duarte, D; D'Errico, G; Regoli, F

    2015-05-01

    Harbors are critical environments with strategic economic importance but with potential environmental impact: health assessment criteria are a key issue. An ecosystem health status approach was carried out in Portimão harbor as a case-study. Priority and specific chemical levels in sediments along with their bioavailability in mussels, bioassays and a wide array of biomarkers were integrated in a biomarker index (IBR index) and the overall data in a weight of evidence (WOE) model. Metals, PAHs, PCBs and HCB were not particularly high compared with sediment guidelines and standards for dredging. Bioavailability was evident for Cd, Cu and Zn. Biomarkers proved more sensitive namely changes of antioxidant responses, metallothioneins and vittellogenin-like proteins. IBR index indicated that site 4 was the most impacted area. Assessment of the health status by WOE approach highlighted the importance of integrating sediment chemistry, bioaccumulation, biomarkers and bioassays and revealed that despite some disturbance in the harbor area, there was also an impact of urban effluents from upstream. Environmental quality assessment in harbors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Current approaches to assessing intangible assets

    OpenAIRE

    Урусова, Зінаїда Петрівна

    2013-01-01

    The article analyzes methods of assessing intangible assets in Ukraine as well as in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards. Contemporary approaches to assessing intangible assets have been researched.

  5. A New Approach To Soil Sampling For Risk Assessment Of Nutrient Mobilisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonczyk, J. C.; Owen, G. J.; Snell, M. A.; Barber, N.; Benskin, C.; Reaney, S. M.; Haygarth, P.; Quinn, P. F.; Barker, P. A.; Aftab, A.; Burke, S.; Cleasby, W.; Surridge, B.; Perks, M. T.

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally, risks of nutrient and sediment losses from soils are assessed through a combination of field soil nutrient values on soil samples taken over the whole field and the proximity of the field to water courses. The field average nutrient concentration of the soil is used by farmers to determine fertiliser needs. These data are often used by scientists to assess the risk of nutrient losses to water course, though are not really `fit' for this purpose. The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (http://www.edendtc.org.uk/) is a research project based in the River Eden catchment, NW UK, with the aim of cost effectively mitigating diffuse pollution from agriculture whilst maintaining agricultural productivity. Three instrumented focus catchments have been monitored since 2011, providing high resolution in-stream chemistry and ecological data, alongside some spatial data on soils, land use and nutrient inputs. An approach to mitigation was demonstrated in a small sub-catchment, where surface runoff was identified as the key drivers of nutrient losses, using a suite of runoff attenuation features. Other issues identified were management of hard- standings and soil compaction. A new approach for evaluating nutrient losses from soils is assessed in the Eden DTC project. The Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling and Prediction (SCIMAP) model is a risk-mapping framework designed to identify where in the landscape diffuse pollution is most likely to be originating (http://www.scimap.org.uk) and was used to look at the spatial pattern of erosion potential. The aim of this work was to assess if erosion potential identified through the model could be used to inform a new soil sampling strategy, to better assess risk of erosion and risk of transport of sediment-bound phosphorus. Soil samples were taken from areas with different erosion potential. The chemical analysis of these targeted samples are compared to those obtained using more traditional sampling approaches

  6. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Bioavailability in the boris assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norden, M.; Avila, R.; Gonze, M.A.; Tamponnet, C.

    2004-01-01

    The fifth framework EU project BORIS (Bioavailability Of Radionuclides In Soils: role of biological components and resulting improvement of prediction models) has three scientific objectives. The first is to improve understanding of the mechanisms governing the transfer of radionuclides to plants. The second is to improve existing predictive models of radionuclide interaction with soils by incorporating the knowledge acquired from the experimental results. The last and third objective is to extract from the experimental results some scientific basis for the development of bioremediation methods of radionuclides contaminated soils and to apprehend the role of additional non-radioactive pollutants on radionuclide bio-availability. This paper is focused on the second objective. The purpose of the BORIS assessment model is to describe the behaviour of radionuclides in the soil-plant system with the aim of making predictions of the time dynamics of the bioavailability of radionuclides in soil and the radionuclides concentrations in plants. To be useful the assessment model should be rather simple and use only a few parameters, which are commonly available or possible to measure for different sites. The model shall take into account, as much as possible, the results of the experimental studies and the mechanistic models developed in the BORIS project. One possible approach is to introduce in the assessment model a quantitative relationship between bioavailability of the radionuclides in soil and the soil properties. To do this an operational definition of bioavailability is needed. Here operational means experimentally measurable, directly or indirectly, and that the bioavailability can be translated into a mathematical expression. This paper describes the reasoning behind the chosen definition of bioavailability for the assessment model, how to derive operational expressions for the bioavailability and how to use them in the assessment model. (author)

  8. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  9. Application of declarative modeling approaches for external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anoba, R.C.

    2005-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) are increasingly being used as a tool for supporting the acceptability of design, procurement, construction, operation, and maintenance activities at Nuclear Power Plants. Since the issuance of Generic Letter 88-20 and subsequent IPE/IPEEE assessments, the NRC has issued several Regulatory Guides such as RG 1.174 to describe the use of PSA in risk-informed regulation activities. Most PSA have the capability to address internal events including internal floods. As the more demands are being placed for using the PSA to support risk-informed applications, there has been a growing need to integrate other eternal events (Seismic, Fire, etc.) into the logic models. Most external events involve spatial dependencies and usually impact the logic models at the component level. Therefore, manual insertion of external events impacts into a complex integrated fault tree model may be too cumbersome for routine uses of the PSA. Within the past year, a declarative modeling approach has been developed to automate the injection of external events into the PSA. The intent of this paper is to introduce the concept of declarative modeling in the context of external event applications. A declarative modeling approach involves the definition of rules for injection of external event impacts into the fault tree logic. A software tool such as the EPRI's XInit program can be used to interpret the pre-defined rules and automatically inject external event elements into the PSA. The injection process can easily be repeated, as required, to address plant changes, sensitivity issues, changes in boundary conditions, etc. External event elements may include fire initiating events, seismic initiating events, seismic fragilities, fire-induced hot short events, special human failure events, etc. This approach has been applied at a number of US nuclear power plants including a nuclear power plant in Romania. (authors)

  10. A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

  11. A model of scientific attitudes assessment by observation in physics learning based scientific approach: case study of dynamic fluid topic in high school

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusliana Ekawati, Elvin

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to produce a model of scientific attitude assessment in terms of the observations for physics learning based scientific approach (case study of dynamic fluid topic in high school). Development of instruments in this study adaptation of the Plomp model, the procedure includes the initial investigation, design, construction, testing, evaluation and revision. The test is done in Surakarta, so that the data obtained are analyzed using Aiken formula to determine the validity of the content of the instrument, Cronbach’s alpha to determine the reliability of the instrument, and construct validity using confirmatory factor analysis with LISREL 8.50 program. The results of this research were conceptual models, instruments and guidelines on scientific attitudes assessment by observation. The construct assessment instruments include components of curiosity, objectivity, suspended judgment, open-mindedness, honesty and perseverance. The construct validity of instruments has been qualified (rated load factor > 0.3). The reliability of the model is quite good with the Alpha value 0.899 (> 0.7). The test showed that the model fits the theoretical models are supported by empirical data, namely p-value 0.315 (≥ 0.05), RMSEA 0.027 (≤ 0.08)

  12. Dynamic model for the assessment of radiological exposure to marine biota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vives i Batlle, J. [Westlakes Scientific Consulting Ltd, The Princess Royal Building, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria CA24 3LN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: jordi.vives@westlakes.ac.uk; Wilson, R.C.; Watts, S.J.; Jones, S.R.; McDonald, P.; Vives-Lynch, S. [Westlakes Scientific Consulting Ltd, The Princess Royal Building, Westlakes Science and Technology Park, Moor Row, Cumbria CA24 3LN (United Kingdom)

    2008-11-15

    A generic approach has been developed to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine biota. The approach incorporates a three-compartment biokinetic model based on first order linear kinetics, with interchange rates between the organism and its surrounding environment. Model rate constants are deduced as a function of known parameters: biological half-lives of elimination, concentration factors and a sample point of the retention curve, allowing for the representation of multi-component release. The new methodology has been tested and validated in respect of non-dynamic assessment models developed for regulatory purposes. The approach has also been successfully tested against research dynamic models developed to represent the uptake of technetium and radioiodine by lobsters and winkles. Assessments conducted on two realistic test scenarios demonstrated the importance of simulating time-dependency for ecosystems in which environmental levels of radionuclides are not in equilibrium.

  13. A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Camacho, Oscar M

    2017-06-01

    In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Endorsing the Practical Endorsement? OCR's Approach to Practical Assessment in Science A-Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Steve; Wade, Neil

    2015-01-01

    This article summarises the practical requirements for new science A-levels in biology, chemistry and physics for first teaching from September 2015. It discusses the background to how the new approach was reached and how OCR has seen this taking shape in our assessment models. The opportunities presented by this new approach to practical…

  15. An Integrated Approach for Characterization of Uncertainty in Complex Best Estimate Safety Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourgol-Mohamad, Mohammad; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses an approach called Integrated Methodology for Thermal-Hydraulics Uncertainty Analysis (IMTHUA) to characterize and integrate a wide range of uncertainties associated with the best estimate models and complex system codes used for nuclear power plant safety analyses. Examples of applications include complex thermal hydraulic and fire analysis codes. In identifying and assessing uncertainties, the proposed methodology treats the complex code as a 'white box', thus explicitly treating internal sub-model uncertainties in addition to the uncertainties related to the inputs to the code. The methodology accounts for uncertainties related to experimental data used to develop such sub-models, and efficiently propagates all uncertainties during best estimate calculations. Uncertainties are formally analyzed and probabilistically treated using a Bayesian inference framework. This comprehensive approach presents the results in a form usable in most other safety analyses such as the probabilistic safety assessment. The code output results are further updated through additional Bayesian inference using any available experimental data, for example from thermal hydraulic integral test facilities. The approach includes provisions to account for uncertainties associated with user-specified options, for example for choices among alternative sub-models, or among several different correlations. Complex time-dependent best-estimate calculations are computationally intense. The paper presents approaches to minimize computational intensity during the uncertainty propagation. Finally, the paper will report effectiveness and practicality of the methodology with two applications to a complex thermal-hydraulics system code as well as a complex fire simulation code. In case of multiple alternative models, several techniques, including dynamic model switching, user-controlled model selection, and model mixing, are discussed. (authors)

  16. Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Mokhtar, El Hassene; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Laggoune, Radouane

    2016-01-01

    Pipelines under corrosion are subject to various environment conditions, and consequently it becomes difficult to build realistic corrosion models. In the present work, a Bayesian methodology is proposed to allow for updating the corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. For reliability assessment of dependent structures, Bayesian networks are used to provide interesting qualitative and quantitative description of the information in the system. The qualitative contribution lies in the modeling of complex system, composed by dependent pipelines, as a Bayesian network. The quantitative one lies in the evaluation of the dependencies between pipelines by the use of a new method for the generation of conditional probability tables. The effectiveness of Bayesian updating is illustrated through an application where the new reliability of degraded (corroded) pipe networks is assessed. - Highlights: • A methodology for Bayesian network modeling of pipe networks is proposed. • Bayesian approach based on Metropolis - Hastings algorithm is conducted for corrosion model updating. • The reliability of corroded pipe network is assessed by considering the interdependencies between the pipelines.

  17. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

  18. Multivariate determinants of self-management in Health Care: assessing Health Empowerment Model by comparison between structural equation and graphical models approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filippo Trentini

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Backgroung. In public health one debated issue is related to consequences of improper self-management in health care.  Some theoretical models have been proposed in Health Communication theory which highlight how components such general literacy and specific knowledge of the disease might be very important for effective actions in healthcare system.  Methods. This  paper aims at investigating the consistency of Health Empowerment Model by means of both graphical models approach, which is a “data driven” method and a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM approach, which is instead “theory driven”, showing the different information pattern that can be revealed in a health care research context.The analyzed dataset provides data on the relationship between the Health Empowerment Model constructs and the behavioral and health status in 263 chronic low back pain (cLBP patients. We used the graphical models approach to evaluate the dependence structure in a “blind” way, thus learning the structure from the data.Results. From the estimation results dependence structure confirms links design assumed in SEM approach directly from researchers, thus validating the hypotheses which generated the Health Empowerment Model constructs.Conclusions. This models comparison helps in avoiding confirmation bias. In Structural Equation Modeling, we used SPSS AMOS 21 software. Graphical modeling algorithms were implemented in a R software environment.

  19. A Dynamic Health Assessment Approach for Shearer Based on Artificial Immune Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongbin Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to accurately identify the dynamic health of shearer, reducing operating trouble and production accident of shearer and improving coal production efficiency further, a dynamic health assessment approach for shearer based on artificial immune algorithm was proposed. The key technologies such as system framework, selecting the indicators for shearer dynamic health assessment, and health assessment model were provided, and the flowchart of the proposed approach was designed. A simulation example, with an accuracy of 96%, based on the collected data from industrial production scene was provided. Furthermore, the comparison demonstrated that the proposed method exhibited higher classification accuracy than the classifiers based on back propagation-neural network (BP-NN and support vector machine (SVM methods. Finally, the proposed approach was applied in an engineering problem of shearer dynamic health assessment. The industrial application results showed that the paper research achievements could be used combining with shearer automation control system in fully mechanized coal face. The simulation and the application results indicated that the proposed method was feasible and outperforming others.

  20. Consideration of the bioavailability of metal/metalloid species in freshwaters: experiences regarding the implementation of biotic ligand model-based approaches in risk assessment frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rüdel, Heinz; Díaz Muñiz, Cristina; Garelick, Hemda; Kandile, Nadia G; Miller, Bradley W; Pantoja Munoz, Leonardo; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Purchase, Diane; Shevah, Yehuda; van Sprang, Patrick; Vijver, Martina; Vink, Jos P M

    2015-05-01

    After the scientific development of biotic ligand models (BLMs) in recent decades, these models are now considered suitable for implementation in regulatory risk assessment of metals in freshwater bodies. The BLM approach has been described in many peer-reviewed publications, and the original complex BLMs have been applied in prospective risk assessment reports for metals and metal compounds. BLMs are now also recommended as suitable concepts for the site-specific evaluation of monitoring data in the context of the European Water Framework Directive. However, the use is hampered by the data requirements for the original BLMs (about 10 water parameters). Recently, several user-friendly BLM-based bioavailability software tools for assessing the aquatic toxicity of relevant metals (mainly copper, nickel, and zinc) became available. These tools only need a basic set of commonly determined water parameters as input (i.e., pH, hardness, dissolved organic matter, and dissolved metal concentration). Such tools seem appropriate to foster the implementation of routine site-specific water quality assessments. This work aims to review the existing bioavailability-based regulatory approaches and the application of available BLM-based bioavailability tools for this purpose. Advantages and possible drawbacks of these tools (e.g., feasibility, boundaries of validity) are discussed, and recommendations for further implementation are given.

  1. NUMO's approach for long-term safety assessment - 59404

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebashi, Takeshi; Kaku, Kenichi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko

    2012-01-01

    measures for subsequent stages. In addition, in order to effectively enhance reliability, a concrete approach to managing the uncertainties associated with each procedure has been developed (scenario development, modelling, parameter selection, consequence analysis). Also, the role of safety assessment has been defined for each stage of the siting process (Literature Survey, Preliminary Investigations, Detailed Investigations). (authors)

  2. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

  3. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  4. A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

    2016-02-01

    Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

  5. Evaluation of speech and language assessment approaches with bilingual children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lamo White, Caroline; Jin, Lixian

    2011-01-01

    British society is multicultural and multilingual, thus for many children English is not their main or only language. Speech and language therapists are required to assess accurately the speech and language skills of bilingual children if they are suspected of having a disorder. Cultural and linguistic diversity means that a more complex assessment procedure is needed and research suggests that bilingual children are at risk of misdiagnosis. Clinicians have identified a lack of suitable assessment instruments for use with this client group. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing bilingual children and reviews available speech and language assessment procedures and approaches for use with this client group. It evaluates different approaches for assessing bilingual children to identify approaches that may be more appropriate for carrying out assessments effectively. This review discusses and evaluates the efficacy of norm-referenced standardized measures, criterion-referenced measures, language-processing measures, dynamic assessment and a sociocultural approach. When all named procedures and approaches are compared, the sociocultural approach appears to hold the most promise for accurate assessment of bilingual children. Research suggests that language-processing measures are not effective indicators for identifying speech and language disorders in bilingual children, but further research is warranted. The sociocultural approach encompasses some of the other approaches discussed, including norm-referenced measures, criterion-referenced measures and dynamic assessment. The sociocultural approach enables the clinician to interpret results in the light of the child's linguistic and cultural background. In addition, combining approaches mitigates the weaknesses inherent in each approach. © 2011 Royal College of Speech and Language Therapists.

  6. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...

  7. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs

  8. Materials, system designs and modelling approaches in techno-economic assessment of all-vanadium redox flow batteries - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minke, Christine; Turek, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    The vanadium redox flow battery (VFB) is one of the most promising stationary electrochemical storage systems. The reduction of system costs is a major challenge in the realization of its widespread application. The high complexity of this technology requires a close linking of technologic and economic aspects in system cost assessment. The present review provides an extensive literature analysis with a focus on techno-economic assessment of VFB. Considered materials, system designs and modelling approaches are assessed and compared in order to present and evaluate the current status of system cost assessment in a transparent way. Systems in a range of 2 kW-50 MW providing energy for up to 150 h are covered in literature resulting in an immense range of specific total system costs of 564-12931 € kW-1 or 89-1738 € (kWh)-1. Based on the data from the reviewed studies, guide values of 650 € (kWh)-1 and 550 € (kWh)-1 for installed VFB systems in a power range of 10-1000 kW providing energy for 4 h and 8 h respectively are derived from literature. Moreover, the relevance of precision in the definition of scope and components for meaningful results of techno-economic assessments of VFB systems is pointed out.

  9. River Export of Plastic from Land to Sea: A Global Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegfried, Max; Gabbert, Silke; Koelmans, Albert A.; Kroeze, Carolien; Löhr, Ansje; Verburg, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    Plastic is increasingly considered a serious cause of water pollution. It is a threat to aquatic ecosystems, including rivers, coastal waters and oceans. Rivers transport considerable amounts of plastic from land to sea. The quantity and its main sources, however, are not well known. Assessing the amount of macro- and microplastic transport from river to sea is, therefore, important for understanding the dimension and the patterns of plastic pollution of aquatic ecosystems. In addition, it is crucial for assessing short- and long-term impacts caused by plastic pollution. Here we present a global modelling approach to quantify river export of plastic from land to sea. Our approach accounts for different types of plastic, including both macro- and micro-plastics. Moreover, we distinguish point sources and diffuse sources of plastic in rivers. Our modelling approach is inspired by global nutrient models, which include more than 6000 river basins. In this paper, we will present our modelling approach, as well as first model results for micro-plastic pollution in European rivers. Important sources of micro-plastics include personal care products, laundry, household dust and car tyre wear. We combine information on these sources with information on sewage management, and plastic retention during river transport for the largest European rivers. Our modelling approach may help to better understand and prevent water pollution by plastic , and at the same time serves as 'proof of concept' for future application on global scale.

  10. An assessment Model for Customer Relationship Management Process in Iranian Private-Commercial Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahmoures Hasangholi Pour

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available According to several reports, in spite of huge investment on customer relationship management (CRM, risk of implementing such projects is high. One of failure factors is having no method to assess CRM success comprehensively. Nowadays, classic financial methods are common ways for assessing marketing and CRM initiatives. But, the mentioned models are unsuitable to assess investments like CRM that we expect to have intangible, indirect and strategic benefits. So, we need a process-oriented approach to assess all tangible and intangible factors of CRM process and complete existing models. In this paper, using a qualitative approach and grounded theory, a comprehensive and process-oriented CRM assessment model will be provided that considers all factors of customer relationship management in private-commercial banks of Iran. Finally, based on analysis of developed model, some suggestions will be offered for banking managers and future researchers.

  11. The Development of Marine Accidents Human Reliability Assessment Approach: HEART Methodology and MOP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludfi Pratiwi Bowo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Humans are one of the important factors in the assessment of accidents, particularly marine accidents. Hence, studies are conducted to assess the contribution of human factors in accidents. There are two generations of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA that have been developed. Those methodologies are classified by the differences of viewpoints of problem-solving, as the first generation and second generation. The accident analysis can be determined using three techniques of analysis; sequential techniques, epidemiological techniques and systemic techniques, where the marine accidents are included in the epidemiological technique. This study compares the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART methodology and the 4M Overturned Pyramid (MOP model, which are applied to assess marine accidents. Furthermore, the MOP model can effectively describe the relationships of other factors which affect the accidents; whereas, the HEART methodology is only focused on human factors.

  12. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the model conditional processor approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Coccia

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The work aims at discussing the role of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting and flood emergency management, its relevance to improve the decision making process and the techniques to be used for its assessment.

    Real time flood forecasting requires taking into account predictive uncertainty for a number of reasons. Deterministic hydrological/hydraulic forecasts give useful information about real future events, but their predictions, as usually done in practice, cannot be taken and used as real future occurrences but rather used as pseudo-measurements of future occurrences in order to reduce the uncertainty of decision makers. Predictive Uncertainty (PU is in fact defined as the probability of occurrence of a future value of a predictand (such as water level, discharge or water volume conditional upon prior observations and knowledge as well as on all the information we can obtain on that specific future value from model forecasts. When dealing with commensurable quantities, as in the case of floods, PU must be quantified in terms of a probability distribution function which will be used by the emergency managers in their decision process in order to improve the quality and reliability of their decisions.

    After introducing the concept of PU, the presently available processors are introduced and discussed in terms of their benefits and limitations. In this work the Model Conditional Processor (MCP has been extended to the possibility of using two joint Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs, in order to improve adaptation to low and high flows.

    The paper concludes by showing the results of the application of the MCP on two case studies, the Po river in Italy and the Baron Fork river, OK, USA. In the Po river case the data provided by the Civil Protection of the Emilia Romagna region have been used to implement an operational example, where the predicted variable is the observed water level. In the Baron Fork River

  13. Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

    2016-09-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

  14. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

    2017-07-07

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  15. A Holistic approach to assess older adults' wellness using e-health technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Hilaire J; Demiris, George; Rue, Tessa; Shatil, Evelyn; Wilamowska, Katarzyna; Zaslavsky, Oleg; Reeder, Blaine

    2011-12-01

    To date, methodologies are lacking that address a holistic assessment of wellness in older adults. Technology applications may provide a platform for such an assessment, but have not been validated. We set out to demonstrate whether e-health applications could support the assessment of older adults' wellness in community-dwelling older adults. Twenty-seven residents of independent retirement community were followed over 8 weeks. Subjects engaged in the use of diverse technologies to assess cognitive performance, physiological and functional variables, as well as psychometric components of wellness. Data were integrated from various e-health sources into one study database. Correlations were assessed between different parameters, and hierarchical cluster analysis was used to explore the validity of the wellness model. We found strong associations across multiple parameters of wellness within the conceptual model, including cognitive, functional, and physical. However, spirituality did not correlate with any other parameter studied in contrast to prior studies of older adults. Participants expressed overall positive attitudes toward the e-health tools and the holistic approach to the assessment of wellness, without expressing any privacy concerns. Parameters were highly correlated across multiple domains of wellness. Important clusters were noted to be formed across cognitive and physiological domains, giving further evidence of need for an integrated approach to the assessment of wellness. This finding warrants further replication in larger and more diverse samples of older adults to standardize and deploy these technologies across population groups.

  16. A Systematic Approach for Real-Time Operator Functional State Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangfan; Wang, Wei; Pepe, Aaron; Xu, Roger; Schnell, Thomas; Anderson, Nick; Heitkamp, Dean; Li, Jiang; Li, Feng; McKenzie, Frederick

    2012-01-01

    A task overload condition often leads to high stress for an operator, causing performance degradation and possibly disastrous consequences. Just as dangerous, with automated flight systems, an operator may experience a task underload condition (during the en-route flight phase, for example), becoming easily bored and finding it difficult to maintain sustained attention. When an unexpected event occurs, either internal or external to the automated system, the disengaged operator may neglect, misunderstand, or respond slowly/inappropriately to the situation. In this paper, we discuss an approach for Operator Functional State (OFS) monitoring in a typical aviation environment. A systematic ground truth finding procedure has been designed based on subjective evaluations, performance measures, and strong physiological indicators. The derived OFS ground truth is continuous in time compared to a very sparse estimation of OFS based on an expert review or subjective evaluations. It can capture the variations of OFS during a mission to better guide through the training process of the OFS assessment model. Furthermore, an OFS assessment model framework based on advanced machine learning techniques was designed and the systematic approach was then verified and validated with experimental data collected in a high fidelity Boeing 737 simulator. Preliminary results show highly accurate engagement/disengagement detection making it suitable for real-time applications to assess pilot engagement.

  17. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  18. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  19. Make the Most of the Data You've Got: Bayesian Models and a Surrogate Species Approach to Assessing Benefits of Upstream Migration Flows for the Endangered Australian Grayling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, J Angus; Koster, Wayne M; Stuart, Ivor G; Reich, Paul; Stewardson, Michael J

    2018-03-01

    Environmental water managers must make best use of allocations, and adaptive management is one means of improving effectiveness of environmental water delivery. Adaptive management relies on generation of new knowledge from monitoring and evaluation, but it is often difficult to make clear inferences from available monitoring data. Alternative approaches to assessment of flow benefits may offer an improved pathway to adaptive management. We developed Bayesian statistical models to inform adaptive management of the threatened Australian grayling (Prototroctes maraena) in the coastal Thomson River, South-East Victoria Australia. The models assessed the importance of flows in spring and early summer (migration flows) for upstream dispersal and colonization of juveniles of this diadromous species. However, Australian grayling young-of-year were recorded in low numbers, and models provided no indication of the benefit of migration flows. To overcome this limitation, we applied the same models to young-of-year of a surrogate species (tupong-Pseudaphritis urvilli)-a more common diadromous species expected to respond to flow similarly to Australian grayling-and found strong positive responses to migration flows. Our results suggest two complementary approaches to supporting adaptive management of Australian grayling. First, refine monitoring approaches to allow direct measurement of effects of migration flows, a process currently under way. Second, while waiting for improved data, further investigate the use of tupong as a surrogate species. More generally, alternative approaches to assessment can improve knowledge to inform adaptive management, and this can occur while monitoring is being revised to directly target environmental responses of interest.

  20. A parsimonious dynamic model for river water quality assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2010-01-01

    Water quality modelling is of crucial importance for the assessment of physical, chemical, and biological changes in water bodies. Mathematical approaches to water modelling have become more prevalent over recent years. Different model types ranging from detailed physical models to simplified conceptual models are available. Actually, a possible middle ground between detailed and simplified models may be parsimonious models that represent the simplest approach that fits the application. The appropriate modelling approach depends on the research goal as well as on data available for correct model application. When there is inadequate data, it is mandatory to focus on a simple river water quality model rather than detailed ones. The study presents a parsimonious river water quality model to evaluate the propagation of pollutants in natural rivers. The model is made up of two sub-models: a quantity one and a quality one. The model employs a river schematisation that considers different stretches according to the geometric characteristics and to the gradient of the river bed. Each stretch is represented with a conceptual model of a series of linear channels and reservoirs. The channels determine the delay in the pollution wave and the reservoirs cause its dispersion. To assess the river water quality, the model employs four state variables: DO, BOD, NH(4), and NO. The model was applied to the Savena River (Italy), which is the focus of a European-financed project in which quantity and quality data were gathered. A sensitivity analysis of the model output to the model input or parameters was done based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. The results demonstrate the suitability of such a model as a tool for river water quality management.

  1. Industrial process system assessment: bridging process engineering and life cycle assessment through multiscale modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Industrial Process System Assessment (IPSA) methodology is a multiple step allocation approach for connecting information from the production line level up to the facility level and vice versa using a multiscale model of process systems. The allocation procedure assigns inpu...

  2. An Approach for the Assessment of System Upset Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2013-01-01

    This report describes an approach for the assessment of upset resilience that is applicable to systems in general, including safety-critical, real-time systems. For this work, resilience is defined as the ability to preserve and restore service availability and integrity under stated conditions of configuration, functional inputs and environmental conditions. To enable a quantitative approach, we define novel system service degradation metrics and propose a new mathematical definition of resilience. These behavioral-level metrics are based on the fundamental service classification criteria of correctness, detectability, symmetry and persistence. This approach consists of a Monte-Carlo-based stimulus injection experiment, on a physical implementation or an error-propagation model of a system, to generate a system response set that can be characterized in terms of dimensional error metrics and integrated to form an overall measure of resilience. We expect this approach to be helpful in gaining insight into the error containment and repair capabilities of systems for a wide range of conditions.

  3. Can Bayesian Belief Networks help tackling conceptual model uncertainties in contaminated site risk assessment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Mads; Thomsen, Nanna Isbak; McKnight, Ursula S.

    different conceptual models may describe the same contaminated site equally well. In many cases, conceptual model uncertainty has been shown to be one of the dominant sources for uncertainty and is therefore essential to account for when quantifying uncertainties in risk assessments. We present here......A key component in risk assessment of contaminated sites is the formulation of a conceptual site model. The conceptual model is a simplified representation of reality and forms the basis for the mathematical modelling of contaminant fate and transport at the site. A conceptual model should...... a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach for evaluating the uncertainty in risk assessment of groundwater contamination from contaminated sites. The approach accounts for conceptual model uncertainty by considering multiple conceptual models, each of which represents an alternative interpretation of the site...

  4. A Multi-State Physics Modeling approach for the reliability assessment of Nuclear Power Plants piping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Maio, Francesco; Colli, Davide; Zio, Enrico; Tao, Liu; Tong, Jiejuan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We model piping systems degradation of Nuclear Power Plants under uncertainty. • We use Multi-State Physics Modeling (MSPM) to describe a continuous degradation process. • We propose a Monte Carlo (MC) method for calculating time-dependent transition rates. • We apply MSPM to a piping system undergoing thermal fatigue. - Abstract: A Multi-State Physics Modeling (MSPM) approach is here proposed for degradation modeling and failure probability quantification of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) piping systems. This approach integrates multi-state modeling to describe the degradation process by transitions among discrete states (e.g., no damage, micro-crack, flaw, rupture, etc.), with physics modeling by (physic) equations to describe the continuous degradation process within the states. We propose a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method for the evaluation of the time-dependent transition rates between the states of the MSPM. Accountancy is given for the uncertainty in the parameters and external factors influencing the degradation process. The proposed modeling approach is applied to a benchmark problem of a piping system of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) undergoing thermal fatigue. The results are compared with those obtained by a continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chain Model

  5. Peer Assessment with Online Tools to Improve Student Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Leslie J.

    2012-11-01

    Introductory physics courses often require students to develop precise models of phenomena and represent these with diagrams, including free-body diagrams, light-ray diagrams, and maps of field lines. Instructors expect that students will adopt a certain rigor and precision when constructing these diagrams, but we want that rigor and precision to be an aid to sense-making rather than meeting seemingly arbitrary requirements set by the instructor. By giving students the authority to develop their own models and establish requirements for their diagrams, the sense that these are arbitrary requirements diminishes and students are more likely to see modeling as a sense-making activity. The practice of peer assessment can help students take ownership; however, it can be difficult for instructors to manage. Furthermore, it is not without risk: students can be reluctant to critique their peers, they may view this as the job of the instructor, and there is no guarantee that students will employ greater rigor and precision as a result of peer assessment. In this article, we describe one approach for peer assessment that can establish norms for diagrams in a way that is student driven, where students retain agency and authority in assessing and improving their work. We show that such an approach does indeed improve students' diagrams and abilities to assess their own work, without sacrificing students' authority and agency.

  6. Towards a 3d Spatial Urban Energy Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahu, J.-M.; Koch, A.; Kremers, E.; Murshed, S. M.

    2013-09-01

    Today's needs to reduce the environmental impact of energy use impose dramatic changes for energy infrastructure and existing demand patterns (e.g. buildings) corresponding to their specific context. In addition, future energy systems are expected to integrate a considerable share of fluctuating power sources and equally a high share of distributed generation of electricity. Energy system models capable of describing such future systems and allowing the simulation of the impact of these developments thus require a spatial representation in order to reflect the local context and the boundary conditions. This paper describes two recent research approaches developed at EIFER in the fields of (a) geo-localised simulation of heat energy demand in cities based on 3D morphological data and (b) spatially explicit Agent-Based Models (ABM) for the simulation of smart grids. 3D city models were used to assess solar potential and heat energy demand of residential buildings which enable cities to target the building refurbishment potentials. Distributed energy systems require innovative modelling techniques where individual components are represented and can interact. With this approach, several smart grid demonstrators were simulated, where heterogeneous models are spatially represented. Coupling 3D geodata with energy system ABMs holds different advantages for both approaches. On one hand, energy system models can be enhanced with high resolution data from 3D city models and their semantic relations. Furthermore, they allow for spatial analysis and visualisation of the results, with emphasis on spatially and structurally correlations among the different layers (e.g. infrastructure, buildings, administrative zones) to provide an integrated approach. On the other hand, 3D models can benefit from more detailed system description of energy infrastructure, representing dynamic phenomena and high resolution models for energy use at component level. The proposed modelling strategies

  7. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-01-01

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  8. Population models for Greater Snow Geese: a comparison of different approaches to assess potential impacts of harvest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gauthier, G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Demographic models, which are a natural extension of capture-recapture (CR methodology, are a powerful tool to guide decisions when managing wildlife populations. We compare three different modelling approaches to evaluate the effect of increased harvest on the population growth of Greater Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica. Our first approach is a traditional matrix model where survival was reduced to simulate increased harvest. We included environmental stochasticity in the matrix projection model by simulating good, average, and bad years to account for the large inter-annual variation in fecundity and first-year survival, a common feature of birds nesting in the Arctic. Our second approach is based on the elasticity (or relative sensitivity of population growth rate (lambda to changes in survival as simple functions of generation time. Generation time was obtained from the mean transition matrix based on the observed proportion of good, average and bad years between 1985 and 1998. If we assume that hunting mortality is additive to natural mortality, then a simple formula predicts changes in lambda as a function of changes in harvest rate. This second approach can be viewed as a simplification of the matrix model because it uses formal sensitivity results derived from population projection. Our third, and potentially more powerful approach, uses the Kalman Filter to combine information on demographic parameters, i.e. the population mechanisms summarized in a transition matrix model, and the census information (i.e. annual survey within an overall Gaussian likelihood. The advantage of this approach is that it minimizes process and measured uncertainties associated with both the census and demographic parameters based on the variance of each estimate. This third approach, in contrast to the second, can be viewed as an extension of the matrix model, by combining its results with the independent census information.

  9. Assessing multiscale complexity of short heart rate variability series through a model-based linear approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Ranuzzi, Giovanni; De Maria, Beatrice; Baselli, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    We propose a multiscale complexity (MSC) method assessing irregularity in assigned frequency bands and being appropriate for analyzing the short time series. It is grounded on the identification of the coefficients of an autoregressive model, on the computation of the mean position of the poles generating the components of the power spectral density in an assigned frequency band, and on the assessment of its distance from the unit circle in the complex plane. The MSC method was tested on simulations and applied to the short heart period (HP) variability series recorded during graded head-up tilt in 17 subjects (age from 21 to 54 years, median = 28 years, 7 females) and during paced breathing protocols in 19 subjects (age from 27 to 35 years, median = 31 years, 11 females) to assess the contribution of time scales typical of the cardiac autonomic control, namely in low frequency (LF, from 0.04 to 0.15 Hz) and high frequency (HF, from 0.15 to 0.5 Hz) bands to the complexity of the cardiac regulation. The proposed MSC technique was compared to a traditional model-free multiscale method grounded on information theory, i.e., multiscale entropy (MSE). The approach suggests that the reduction of HP variability complexity observed during graded head-up tilt is due to a regularization of the HP fluctuations in LF band via a possible intervention of sympathetic control and the decrement of HP variability complexity observed during slow breathing is the result of the regularization of the HP variations in both LF and HF bands, thus implying the action of physiological mechanisms working at time scales even different from that of respiration. MSE did not distinguish experimental conditions at time scales larger than 1. Over a short time series MSC allows a more insightful association between cardiac control complexity and physiological mechanisms modulating cardiac rhythm compared to a more traditional tool such as MSE.

  10. Assessing the welfare impact of foot disorders in dairy cattle by a modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Beerda, B.; Hogeveen, H.; Stassen, E.N.

    2012-01-01

    Foot disorders are the main cause of dairy cow lameness and are considered to have a major impact on the welfare of dairy cattle. This study adopts a modeling approach, using a dynamic stochastic model, to provide more insight into the welfare impact of different types of foot disorders, both

  11. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

  12. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

  13. Uncertainty analysis in agent-based modelling and consequential life cycle assessment coupled models : a critical review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baustert, P.M.; Benetto, E.

    2017-01-01

    The evolution of life cycle assessment (LCA) from a merely comparative tool for the assessment of products to a policy analysis tool proceeds by incorporating increasingly complex modelling approaches. In more recent studies of complex systems, such as the agriculture sector or mobility, agent-based

  14. Fully integrated modelling for sustainability assessment of resource recovery from waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millward-Hopkins, Joel; Busch, Jonathan; Purnell, Phil; Zwirner, Oliver; Velis, Costas A; Brown, Andrew; Hahladakis, John; Iacovidou, Eleni

    2018-01-15

    This paper presents an integrated modelling approach for value assessments, focusing on resource recovery from waste. The method tracks and forecasts a range of values across environmental, social, economic and technical domains by attaching these to material-flows, thus building upon and integrating unidimensional models such as material flow analysis (MFA) and lifecycle assessment (LCA). We argue that the usual classification of metrics into these separate domains is useful for interpreting the outputs of multidimensional assessments, but unnecessary for modelling. We thus suggest that multidimensional assessments can be better performed by integrating the calculation methods of unidimensional models rather than their outputs. To achieve this, we propose a new metric typology that forms the foundation of a multidimensional model. This enables dynamic simulations to be performed with material-flows (or values in any domain) driven by changes in value in other domains. We then apply the model in an illustrative case highlighting links between the UK coal-based electricity-production and concrete/cement industries, investigating potential impacts that may follow the increased use of low-carbon fuels (biomass and solid recovered fuels; SRF) in the former. We explore synergies and trade-offs in value across domains and regions, e.g. how changes in carbon emissions in one part of the system may affect mortality elsewhere. This highlights the advantages of recognising complex system dynamics and making high-level inferences of their effects, even when rigorous analysis is not possible. We also indicate how changes in social, environmental and economic 'values' can be understood as being driven by changes in the technical value of resources. Our work thus emphasises the advantages of building fully integrated models to inform conventional sustainability assessments, rather than applying hybrid approaches that integrate outputs from parallel models. The approach we

  15. A Systematic Approach to Programmatic Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffit, Dani M.; Mansell, Jamie L.; Russ, Anne C.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Accrediting bodies and universities increasingly require evidence of student learning within courses and programs. Within athletic training, programmatic assessment has been a source of angst for program directors. While there are many ways to assess educational programs, this article introduces 1 systematic approach. Objective: This…

  16. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  17. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  18. Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The article provides an overview of goodness-of-fit assessment methods for item response theory (IRT) models. It is now possible to obtain accurate "p"-values of the overall fit of the model if bivariate information statistics are used. Several alternative approaches are described. As the validity of inferences drawn on the fitted model…

  19. A practical approach to competency assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claflin, N

    1997-01-01

    Assessing clinical performance is difficult. Members of the Nursing Service Clinical Practice Committee at the Carl T. Hayden Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Phoenix developed a comprehensive program of competency assessment based on performance measures. This article describes the committee's process of developing and implementing the program and includes a blueprint for competency assessment and selected performance measures for all nursing staff who provide patient care. The approach to competency assessment includes performance measures specific to patients' ages.

  20. Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

  1. Assessing suitable area for Acacia dealbata Mill. in the Ceira River Basin (Central Portugal based on maximum entropy modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Pereira

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Biological invasion by exotic organisms became a key issue, a concern associated to the deep impacts on several domains described as resultant from such processes. A better understanding of the processes, the identification of more susceptible areas, and the definition of preventive or mitigation measures are identified as critical for the purpose of reducing associated impacts. The use of species distribution modeling might help on the purpose of identifying areas that are more susceptible to invasion. This paper aims to present preliminary results on assessing the susceptibility to invasion by the exotic species Acacia dealbata Mill. in the Ceira river basin. The results are based on the maximum entropy modeling approach, considered one of the correlative modelling techniques with better predictive performance. Models which validation is based on independent data sets present better performance, an evaluation based on the AUC of ROC accuracy measure.

  2. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  3. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  4. Stochastic identification of temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam: assessment of multi-model and global model approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hios, J D; Fassois, S D

    2009-01-01

    The temperature effects on the dynamics of a smart composite beam are experimentally studied via conventional multi-model and novel global model identification approaches. The multi-model approaches are based on non-parametric and parametric VARX representations, whereas the global model approaches are based on novel constant coefficient pooled (CCP) and functionally pooled (FP) VARX parametric representations. The analysis indicates that the obtained multi-model and global model representations are in rough overall agreement. Nevertheless, the latter simultaneously use all available data records offering more compact descriptions of the dynamics, improved numerical robustness and estimation accuracy, which is reflected in significantly reduced modal parameter uncertainties. Although the CCP-VARX representations provide only 'averaged' descriptions of the structural dynamics over temperature, their FP-VARX counterparts allow for the explicit, analytical modeling of temperature dependence exhibiting a 'smooth' deterministic dependence of the dynamics on temperature which is compatible with the physics of the problem. In accordance with previous studies, the obtained natural frequencies decrease with temperature in a weakly nonlinear or approximately linear fashion. The damping factors are less affected, although their dependence on temperature may be of a potentially more complex nature

  5. Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

    2014-12-01

    Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

  6. An approach for assessing human exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, Glenn; MacDonell, Margaret; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Teuschler, Linda; Picel, Kurt; Butler, Jim; Chang, Young-Soo; Hartmann, Heidi

    2008-01-01

    Humans are exposed daily to multiple chemicals, including incidental exposures to complex chemical mixtures released into the environment and to combinations of chemicals that already co-exist in the environment because of previous releases from various sources. Exposures to chemical mixtures can occur through multiple pathways and across multiple routes. In this paper, we propose an iterative approach for assessing exposures to environmental chemical mixtures; it is similar to single-chemical approaches. Our approach encompasses two elements of the Risk Assessment Paradigm: Problem Formulation and Exposure Assessment. Multiple phases of the assessment occur in each element of the paradigm. During Problem Formulation, analysts identify and characterize the source(s) of the chemical mixture, ensure that dose-response and exposure assessment measures are concordant, and develop a preliminary evaluation of the mixture's fate. During Exposure Assessment, analysts evaluate the fate of the chemicals comprising the mixture using appropriate models and measurement data, characterize the exposure scenario, and estimate human exposure to the mixture. We also describe the utility of grouping the chemicals to be analyzed based on both physical-chemical properties and an understanding of environmental fate. In the article, we also highlight the need for understanding of changes in the mixture composition in the environment due to differential transport, differential degradation, and differential partitioning to other media. The section describes the application of the method to various chemical mixtures, highlighting issues associated with assessing exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment

  7. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  8. A suggested approach toward measuring sorption and applying sorption data to repository performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rundberg, R.S.

    1992-01-01

    The prediction of radionuclide migration for the purpose of assessing the safety of a nuclear waste repository will be based on a collective knowledge of hydrologic and geochemical properties of the surrounding rock and groundwater. This knowledge along with assumption about the interactions of radionuclides with groundwater and minerals form the scientific basis for a model capable of accurately predicting the repository's performance. Because the interaction of radionuclides in geochemical systems is known to be complicated, several fundamental and empirical approaches to measuring the interaction between radionuclides and the geologic barrier have been developed. The approaches applied to the measurement of sorption involve the use of pure minerals, intact, or crushed rock in dynamic and static experiments. Each approach has its advantages and disadvantages. There is no single best method for providing sorption data for performance assessment models which can be applied without invoking information derived from multiple experiments. 53 refs., 12 figs

  9. Assessing offshore emergency evacuation behavior in a virtual environment using a Bayesian Network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musharraf, Mashrura; Smith, Jennifer; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian; MacKinnon, Scott

    2016-01-01

    In the performance influencing factor (PIF) hierarchy, person-based influencing factors reside in the top level along with machine-based, team-based, organization-based and situation/stressor-based factors. Though person-based PIFs like morale, motivation, and attitude (MMA) play an important role in shaping performance, it is nearly impossible to assess such PIFs directly. However, it is possible to measure behavioral indicators (e.g. compliance, use of information) that can provide insight regarding the state of the unobservable person-based PIFs. One common approach to measuring these indicators is to carry out a self-reported questionnaire survey. Significant work has been done to make such questionnaires reliable, but the potential validity problem associated with any questionnaire is that the data are subjective and thus may bear a limited relationship to reality. This paper describes the use of a virtual environment to measure behavioral indicators, which in turn can be used as proxies to assess otherwise unobservable PIFs like MMA. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is first developed to define the relationship between person-based PIFs and measurable behavioral indicators. The paper then shows how these indicators can be measured using evidence collected from a virtual environment of an offshore petroleum installation. A study that focused on emergency evacuation scenarios was done with 36 participants. The participants were first assessed using a multiple choice test. They were then assessed based on their observed performance during simulated offshore emergency evacuation conditions. A comparison of the two assessments demonstrates the potential benefits and challenges of using virtual environments to assess behavioral indicators, and thus the person-based PIFs. - Highlights: • New approach to use virtual environment as measure of behavioral indicators. • New model to study morale, motivation, and attitude. • Bayesian Network model to define the

  10. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

  11. Different levels of stakeholder participation for sustainability Impact Assessment Tools - A comparative requirement analysis of four research approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sieber, S.; Konig, H.; Bezlepkina, I.; Reidsma, P.

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, a wide range of new modeling approaches has been developed for sustainability impact assessment. They are often based on theoretical concepts on how to cope, process and apply pre-assessments on policy and project instrument-implementation. Experiences show that few models

  12. Need to use probabilistic risk approach in performance assessment of waste disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonano, E.J.; Gallegos, D.P.

    1991-01-01

    Regulations governing the disposal of radioactive, hazardous, and/or mixed wastes will likely require, either directly or indirectly, that the performance of disposal facilities be assessed quantitatively. Such analyses, commonly called ''performance assessments,'' rely on the use of predictive models to arrive at a quantitative estimate of the potential impact of disposal on the environment and the safety and health of the public. It has been recognized that a suite of uncertainties affect the results of a performance assessment. These uncertainties are conventionally categorized as (1) uncertainty in the future state of the disposal system (facility and surrounding medium), (2) uncertainty in models (including conceptual models, mathematical models, and computer codes), and (3) uncertainty in data and parameters. Decisions regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility must be made in light of these uncertainties. Hence, an approach is needed that would allow the explicit consideration of these uncertainties so that their impact on the estimated consequences of disposal can be evaluated. While most regulations for waste disposal do not prescribe the consideration of uncertainties, it is proposed that, even in such cases, a meaningful decision regarding the suitability of a waste disposal facility cannot be made without considering the impact of the attendant uncertainties. A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach provides the formalism for considering the uncertainties and the technical basis that the decision makers can use in discharging their duties. A PRA methodology developed and demonstrated for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste provides a general framework for assessing the disposal of all types of wastes (radioactive, hazardous, and mixed). 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  13. Multilayered Word Structure Model for Assessing Spelling of Finnish Children in Shallow Orthography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulju, Pirjo; Mäkinen, Marita

    2017-01-01

    This study explores Finnish children's word-level spelling by applying a linguistically based multilayered word structure model for assessing spelling performance. The model contributes to the analytical qualitative assessment approach in order to identify children's spelling performance for enhancing writing skills. The children (N = 105)…

  14. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leyla V. Kaufman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  15. Technical Approach for Determining Key Parameters Needed for Modeling the Performance of Cast Stone for the Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Serne, R. Jeffrey [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Guohui [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Westsik, Joseph H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-03-30

    Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) and its contractors at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) are conducting a development program to develop / refine the cementitious waste form for the wastes treated at the ETF and to provide the data needed to support the IDF PA. This technical approach document is intended to provide guidance to the cementitious waste form development program with respect to the waste form characterization and testing information needed to support the IDF PA. At the time of the preparation of this technical approach document, the IDF PA effort is just getting started and the approach to analyze the performance of the cementitious waste form has not been determined. Therefore, this document looks at a number of different approaches for evaluating the waste form performance and describes the testing needed to provide data for each approach. Though the approach addresses a cementitious secondary aqueous waste form, it is applicable to other waste forms such as Cast Stone for supplemental immobilization of Hanford LAW. The performance of Cast Stone as a physical and chemical barrier to the release of contaminants of concern (COCs) from solidification of Hanford liquid low activity waste (LAW) and secondary wastes processed through the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) is of critical importance to the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) total system performance assessment (TSPA). The effectiveness of cementitious waste forms as a barrier to COC release is expected to evolve with time. PA modeling must therefore anticipate and address processes, properties, and conditions that alter the physical and chemical controls on COC transport in the cementitious waste forms over time. Most organizations responsible for disposal facility operation and their regulators support an iterative hierarchical safety/performance assessment approach with a general philosophy that modeling provides

  16. A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

    2018-05-03

    The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, Luigi; Boyer, Patrick; Brittain, John E.; Haakanson, Lars; Lepicard, Samuel; Smith, Jim T.

    2005-01-01

    The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed

  18. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  19. A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Fedoroff, J Paul; Curry, Susan; Amundsen, David E

    2010-10-01

    For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

  20. AgMIP: Next Generation Models and Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2014-12-01

    Next steps in developing next-generation crop models fall into several categories: significant improvements in simulation of important crop processes and responses to stress; extension from simplified crop models to complex cropping systems models; and scaling up from site-based models to landscape, national, continental, and global scales. Crop processes that require major leaps in understanding and simulation in order to narrow uncertainties around how crops will respond to changing atmospheric conditions include genetics; carbon, temperature, water, and nitrogen; ozone; and nutrition. The field of crop modeling has been built on a single crop-by-crop approach. It is now time to create a new paradigm, moving from 'crop' to 'cropping system.' A first step is to set up the simulation technology so that modelers can rapidly incorporate multiple crops within fields, and multiple crops over time. Then the response of these more complex cropping systems can be tested under different sustainable intensification management strategies utilizing the updated simulation environments. Model improvements for diseases, pests, and weeds include developing process-based models for important diseases, frameworks for coupling air-borne diseases to crop models, gathering significantly more data on crop impacts, and enabling the evaluation of pest management strategies. Most smallholder farming in the world involves integrated crop-livestock systems that cannot be represented by crop modeling alone. Thus, next-generation cropping system models need to include key linkages to livestock. Livestock linkages to be incorporated include growth and productivity models for grasslands and rangelands as well as the usual annual crops. There are several approaches for scaling up, including use of gridded models and development of simpler quasi-empirical models for landscape-scale analysis. On the assessment side, AgMIP is leading a community process for coordinated contributions to IPCC AR6

  1. Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

    2018-02-01

    Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

  2. Assessment of Programming Language Learning Based on Peer Code Review Model: Implementation and Experience Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yanqing; Li, Hang; Feng, Yuqiang; Jiang, Yu; Liu, Ying

    2012-01-01

    The traditional assessment approach, in which one single written examination counts toward a student's total score, no longer meets new demands of programming language education. Based on a peer code review process model, we developed an online assessment system called "EduPCR" and used a novel approach to assess the learning of computer…

  3. A machine learning approach for automated assessment of retinal vasculature in the oxygen induced retinopathy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzaferri, Javier; Larrivée, Bruno; Cakir, Bertan; Sapieha, Przemyslaw; Costantino, Santiago

    2018-03-02

    Preclinical studies of vascular retinal diseases rely on the assessment of developmental dystrophies in the oxygen induced retinopathy rodent model. The quantification of vessel tufts and avascular regions is typically computed manually from flat mounted retinas imaged using fluorescent probes that highlight the vascular network. Such manual measurements are time-consuming and hampered by user variability and bias, thus a rapid and objective method is needed. Here, we introduce a machine learning approach to segment and characterize vascular tufts, delineate the whole vasculature network, and identify and analyze avascular regions. Our quantitative retinal vascular assessment (QuRVA) technique uses a simple machine learning method and morphological analysis to provide reliable computations of vascular density and pathological vascular tuft regions, devoid of user intervention within seconds. We demonstrate the high degree of error and variability of manual segmentations, and designed, coded, and implemented a set of algorithms to perform this task in a fully automated manner. We benchmark and validate the results of our analysis pipeline using the consensus of several manually curated segmentations using commonly used computer tools. The source code of our implementation is released under version 3 of the GNU General Public License ( https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/65699-javimazzaf-qurva ).

  4. Practical examples of modeling choices and their consequences for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although benchmark dose (BMD) modeling has become the preferred approach to identifying a point of departure (POD) over the No Observed Adverse Effect Level, there remain challenges to its application in human health risk assessment. BMD modeling, as currently implemented by the...

  5. A qualitative approach to assessing work ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tengland, Per-Anders

    2013-01-01

    We often need to be able to assess the extent to which individuals have or lack work ability. For this we need instruments. Most of the instruments available have flaws. They either lack validity or they use roundabout methods when collecting information about the individual's work ability. The aim of this paper is to present a conceptual model for constructing a questionnaire that can be used for assessing work ability. The methods used are philosophical, i.e. analytical and deductive. A conceptual theory is provided, and based on the resulting definition of the concept of "work ability" conclusions are drawn regarding how to assess work ability. When constructing quantitative instruments, we can increase validity through using a more strict definition of work ability. However, such an approach will only solve some of the problems noted above. The proposal is, instead, to create a qualitative questionnaire, founded on a definition of "work ability", which focuses on the concrete problems concerning the work ability of the individual. Finally, a sketch of such an instrument is provided, with questions covering all the relevant aspects of work ability. The qualitative questionnaire proposed is believed to be superior to more traditional (quantitative) instruments for assessing a person's work ability, as well as for finding solutions to her problems concerning work ability.

  6. A systematic approach to injury policy assessment: introducing the assessment of child injury prevention policies (A-CHIPP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonge, Olakunle; Agrawal, Priyanka; Meddings, David; Hyder, Adnan A

    2017-11-03

    This study presents a systematic approach-assessment of child injury prevention policies (A-CHIPP)-to assess and track policies on effective child injury interventions at the national level. Results from an initial pilot test of the approach in selected countries are presented. A literature review was conducted to identify conceptual models for injury policy assessment, and domains and indicators were proposed for assessing national injury policies for children aged 1-9 years. The indicators focused on current evidence-supported interventions targeting the leading external causes of child injury mortality globally, and were organised into a self-administered A-CHIPP questionnaire comprising 22 questions. The questionnaire was modified based on reviews by experts in child injury prevention. For an initial test of the approach, 13 countries from all six WHO regions were selected to examine the accuracy, usefulness and ease of understanding of the A-CHIPP questionnaire. Data on the A-CHIPP questionnaire were received from nine countries. Drowning and road traffic injuries were reported as the leading causes of child injury deaths in seven of these countries. Most of the countries lacked national policies on interventions that address child injuries; supportive factors such as finance and leadership for injury prevention were also lacking. All countries rated the questionnaire highly on its relevance for assessment of injury prevention policies. The A-CHIPP questionnaire is useful for national assessment of child injury policies, and such an assessment could draw attention of stakeholders to policy gaps and progress in child injury prevention in all countries. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Mathematical Safety Assessment Approaches for Thermal Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zong-Xiao Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to use system analysis methods to identify the hazards in the industrialized process, working environment, and production management for complex industrial processes, such as thermal power plants, is one of the challenges in the systems engineering. A mathematical system safety assessment model is proposed for thermal power plants in this paper by integrating fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, set pair analysis, and system functionality analysis. In the basis of those, the key factors influencing the thermal power plant safety are analyzed. The influence factors are determined based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. The connection degree among the factors is obtained by set pair analysis. The system safety preponderant function is constructed through system functionality analysis for inherence properties and nonlinear influence. The decision analysis system is developed by using active server page technology, web resource integration, and cross-platform capabilities for applications to the industrialized process. The availability of proposed safety assessment approach is verified by using an actual thermal power plant, which has improved the enforceability and predictability in enterprise safety assessment.

  8. Tackling Biocomplexity with Meta-models for Species Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J. Nyhus

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe results of a multi-year effort to strengthen consideration of the human dimension into endangered species risk assessments and to strengthen research capacity to understand biodiversity risk assessment in the context of coupled human-natural systems. A core group of social and biological scientists have worked with a network of more than 50 individuals from four countries to develop a conceptual framework illustrating how human-mediated processes influence biological systems and to develop tools to gather, translate, and incorporate these data into existing simulation models. A central theme of our research focused on (1 the difficulties often encountered in identifying and securing diverse bodies of expertise and information that is necessary to adequately address complex species conservation issues; and (2 the development of quantitative simulation modeling tools that could explicitly link these datasets as a way to gain deeper insight into these issues. To address these important challenges, we promote a "meta-modeling" approach where computational links are constructed between discipline-specific models already in existence. In this approach, each model can function as a powerful stand-alone program, but interaction between applications is achieved by passing data structures describing the state of the system between programs. As one example of this concept, an integrated meta-model of wildlife disease and population biology is described. A goal of this effort is to improve science-based capabilities for decision making by scientists, natural resource managers, and policy makers addressing environmental problems in general, and focusing on biodiversity risk assessment in particular.

  9. Assessing reflective thinking and approaches to learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Louise; Musolino, Gina M

    2011-01-01

    Facilitation of reflective practice is critical for the ongoing demands of health care practitioners. Reflective thinking concepts, grounded in the work of Dewey and Schön, emphasize critical reflection to promote transformation in beliefs and learning necessary for reflective practice. The Reflective Thinking Questionnaire (QRT) and Revised Study Process Questionnaire (RSPQ-2F) assess skill aspects of professional reasoning, with promise for measuring changes over time. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and responsiveness and the model validity of reflective thinking and approaches to learning measures for U.S. health professions students enrolled in entry-level occupational (MOT) and physical therapy (DPT) programs. This measurement study addressed reliability and responsiveness of two measures, the QRT and RSPQ-2F, for graduate health professionals. A convenience sample of 125 MOT and DPT students participated in the two-measure, test-retest investigation, with electronic data collection. Outcomes support the stability of the four-scale QRT (ICC 0.63 to 0.82) and the two-scale RSPQ-2F (ICC 0.91 and 0.87). Descriptive data supporting responsiveness are presented. With noted limitations, the results support the use of the QRT and RSPQ-2F measures to assess changes in reflective thinking and approaches to learning. Measurement of these learning outcomes furthers our understanding and knowledge about instructional strategies, development of professional reasoning, and fostering of self-directed learning within MOT and DPT programs.

  10. Taking into account the impact of attrition on the assessment of response shift and true change: a multigroup structural equation modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdam, Mathilde G E; Oort, Frans J; van der Linden, Yvette M; Sprangers, Mirjam A G

    2015-03-01

    Missing data due to attrition present a challenge for the assessment and interpretation of change and response shift in HRQL outcomes. The objective was to handle such missingness and to assess response shift and 'true change' with the use of an attrition-based multigroup structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Functional limitations and health impairments were measured in 1,157 cancer patients, who were treated with palliative radiotherapy for painful bone metastases, before [time (T) 0], every week after treatment (T1 through T12), and then monthly for up to 2 years (T13 through T24). To handle missing data due to attrition, the SEM procedure was extended to a multigroup approach, in which we distinguished three groups: short survival (3-5 measurements), medium survival (6-12 measurements), and long survival (>12 measurements). Attrition after third, sixth, and 13th measurement occasions was 11, 24, and 41 %, respectively. Results show that patterns of change in functional limitations and health impairments differ between patients with short, medium, or long survival. Moreover, three response-shift effects were detected: recalibration of 'pain' and 'sickness' and reprioritization of 'physical functioning.' If response-shift effects would not have been taken into account, functional limitations and health impairments would generally be underestimated across measurements. The multigroup SEM approach enables the analysis of data from patients with different patterns of missing data due to attrition. This approach does not only allow for detection of response shift and assessment of true change across measurements, but also allow for detection of differences in response shift and true change across groups of patients with different attrition rates.

  11. New Approaches to Reliability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    of energy. New approaches for reliability assessment are being taken in the design phase of power electronics systems based on the physics-of-failure in components. In this approach, many new methods, such as multidisciplinary simulation tools, strength testing of components, translation of mission profiles......, and statistical analysis, are involved to enable better prediction and design of reliability for products. This article gives an overview of the new design flow in the reliability engineering of power electronics from the system-level point of view and discusses some of the emerging needs for the technology...

  12. Export of microplastics from land to sea. A modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siegfried, Max; Koelmans, A.A.; Besseling, E.; Kroeze, C.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying the transport of plastic debris from river to sea is crucial for assessing the risks of plastic debris to human health and the environment. We present a global modelling approach to analyse the composition and quantity of point-source microplastic fluxes from European rivers to the sea.

  13. A practical approach to programmatic assessment design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmerman, A A; Dijkstra, J

    2017-12-01

    Assessment of complex tasks integrating several competencies calls for a programmatic design approach. As single instruments do not provide the information required to reach a robust judgment of integral performance, 73 guidelines for programmatic assessment design were developed. When simultaneously applying these interrelated guidelines, it is challenging to keep a clear overview of all assessment activities. The goal of this study was to provide practical support for applying a programmatic approach to assessment design, not bound to any specific educational paradigm. The guidelines were first applied in a postgraduate medical training setting, and a process analysis was conducted. This resulted in the identification of four steps for programmatic assessment design: evaluation, contextualisation, prioritisation and justification. Firstly, the (re)design process starts with sufficiently detailing the assessment environment and formulating the principal purpose. Key stakeholders with sufficient (assessment) expertise need to be involved in the analysis of strengths and weaknesses and identification of developmental needs. Central governance is essential to balance efforts and stakes with the principal purpose and decide on prioritisation of design decisions and selection of relevant guidelines. Finally, justification of assessment design decisions, quality assurance and external accountability close the loop, to ensure sound underpinning and continuous improvement of the assessment programme.

  14. 2-D Fused Image Reconstruction approach for Microwave Tomography: a theoretical assessment using FDTD Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindu, G; Semenov, S

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes an efficient two-dimensional fused image reconstruction approach for Microwave Tomography (MWT). Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) models were created for a viable MWT experimental system having the transceivers modelled using thin wire approximation with resistive voltage sources. Born Iterative and Distorted Born Iterative methods have been employed for image reconstruction with the extremity imaging being done using a differential imaging technique. The forward solver in the imaging algorithm employs the FDTD method of solving the time domain Maxwell's equations with the regularisation parameter computed using a stochastic approach. The algorithm is tested with 10% noise inclusion and successful image reconstruction has been shown implying its robustness.

  15. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    The first phase of the assessment concentrates on (1) identification of selected risk-based approaches for improving current technical specifications, (2) appraisal of characteristics of each approach, including advantages and disadvantages, and (3) recommendation of one or more approaches that might result in improving current technical specification requirements. The second phase of the work concentrates on assessment of the feasibility of implementation of a pilot program to study detailed characteristics of the preferred approach. The real time risk-based approach was identified as the preferred approach to technical specifications for controlling plant operational risk. There do not appear to be any technical or institutional obstacles to prevent initiation of a pilot program to assess the characteristics and effectiveness of such an approach. 2 tabs

  16. Developing TheoreticalMethodological Approaches to Assessment of Export Potential of Ukrainian Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matyushenko Igor Yu.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the existing theoretical-methodological approaches to the analysis and assessment of export potential. The opinions by scientists regarding the disclosure of the categorial content of the concept of «export potential» have been considered, an own definition of the indicated economic category has been suggested. The main types of analytical procedures for assessment have been classified, some authorial methodical approaches to determine the level of export potential have been analyzed. The export potential of a hypothetical enterprise has been calculated by the selected methodologies of assessment. The urgency of improving and refining existing methods to implement more detailed and quantitative analysis has been substantiated. It has been suggested to implement a prognosis assessment of export potential of enterprises by combining the results of several methodologies in the aggregate indicator of export potential efficiency. A prognosis model for the dynamics of export potential of a hypothetical enterprise has been built, value of the aggregate indicator has been calculated on the basis of three selected valuation methodologies.

  17. The multi temporal/multi-model approach to predictive uncertainty assessment in real-time flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Coccia, Gabriele; Moramarco, Tommaso; Brocca, Luca; Todini, Ezio

    2017-08-01

    This work extends the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP-MT) to the multi-model case and to the four Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs) approach, demonstrating the improvement on the single-temporal one. The study is framed in the context of probabilistic Bayesian decision-making that is appropriate to take rational decisions on uncertain future outcomes. As opposed to the direct use of deterministic forecasts, the probabilistic forecast identifies a predictive probability density function that represents a fundamental knowledge on future occurrences. The added value of MCP-MT is the identification of the probability that a critical situation will happen within the forecast lead-time and when, more likely, it will occur. MCP-MT is thoroughly tested for both single-model and multi-model configurations at a gauged site on the Tiber River, central Italy. The stages forecasted by two operative deterministic models, STAFOM-RCM and MISDc, are considered for the study. The dataset used for the analysis consists of hourly data from 34 flood events selected on a time series of six years. MCP-MT improves over the original models' forecasts: the peak overestimation and the rising limb delayed forecast, characterizing MISDc and STAFOM-RCM respectively, are significantly mitigated, with a reduced mean error on peak stage from 45 to 5 cm and an increased coefficient of persistence from 0.53 up to 0.75. The results show that MCP-MT outperforms the single-temporal approach and is potentially useful for supporting decision-making because the exceedance probability of hydrometric thresholds within a forecast horizon and the most probable flooding time can be estimated.

  18. PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF A MODEL FOR ASSESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr NOVOTNÝ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Rail transport is an important sub-sector of transport infrastructure. Disruption of its operation due to emergencies can result in a reduction in functional parameters of provided services with consequent impacts on society. Identification of critical elements of this system enables its timely and effective protection. On that ground, the article presents a draft model for assessing the criticality of railway infrastructure elements. This model uses a systems approach and multicriteria semi-quantitative analysis with weighted criteria for calculating the criticality of individual elements of the railway infrastructure. In the conclusion, it presents a practical application of the proposed model including the discussion of results.

  19. Numerical modeling of hydrodynamics and sediment transport—an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gic-Grusza, Gabriela; Dudkowska, Aleksandra

    2017-10-01

    Point measurement-based estimation of bedload transport in the coastal zone is very difficult. The only way to assess the magnitude and direction of bedload transport in larger areas, particularly those characterized by complex bottom topography and hydrodynamics, is to use a holistic approach. This requires modeling of waves, currents, and the critical bed shear stress and bedload transport magnitude, with a due consideration to the realistic bathymetry and distribution of surface sediment types. Such a holistic approach is presented in this paper which describes modeling of bedload transport in the Gulf of Gdańsk. Extreme storm conditions defined based on 138-year NOAA data were assumed. The SWAN model (Booij et al. 1999) was used to define wind-wave fields, whereas wave-induced currents were calculated using the Kołodko and Gic-Grusza (2015) model, and the magnitude of bedload transport was estimated using the modified Meyer-Peter and Müller (1948) formula. The calculations were performed using a GIS model. The results obtained are innovative. The approach presented appears to be a valuable source of information on bedload transport in the coastal zone.

  20. Assessing Acid-Base Status: Physiologic Versus Physicochemical Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrogué, Horacio J; Madias, Nicolaos E

    2016-11-01

    The physiologic approach has long been used in assessing acid-base status. This approach considers acids as hydrogen ion donors and bases as hydrogen ion acceptors and the acid-base status of the organism as reflecting the interaction of net hydrogen ion balance with body buffers. In the physiologic approach, the carbonic acid/bicarbonate buffer pair is used for assessing acid-base status and blood pH is determined by carbonic acid (ie, Paco 2 ) and serum bicarbonate levels. More recently, the physicochemical approach was introduced, which has gained popularity, particularly among intensivists and anesthesiologists. This approach posits that the acid-base status of body fluids is determined by changes in the dissociation of water that are driven by the interplay of 3 independent variables: the sum of strong (fully dissociated) cation concentrations minus the sum of strong anion concentrations (strong ion difference); the total concentration of weak acids; and Paco 2 . These 3 independent variables mechanistically determine both hydrogen ion concentration and bicarbonate concentration of body fluids, which are considered as dependent variables. Our experience indicates that the average practitioner is familiar with only one of these approaches and knows very little, if any, about the other approach. In the present Acid-Base and Electrolyte Teaching Case, we attempt to bridge this knowledge gap by contrasting the physiologic and physicochemical approaches to assessing acid-base status. We first outline the essential features, advantages, and limitations of each of the 2 approaches and then apply each approach to the same patient presentation. We conclude with our view about the optimal approach. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansson, Jonas; Hassel, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    Technical infrastructures of the society are becoming more and more interconnected and interdependent, i.e. the function of an infrastructure influences the function of other infrastructures. Disturbances in one infrastructure therefore often traverse to other dependent infrastructures and possibly even back to the infrastructure where the failure originated. It is becoming increasingly important to take these interdependencies into account when assessing the vulnerability of technical infrastructures. In the present paper, an approach for modelling interdependent technical infrastructures is proposed. The modelling approach considers structural properties, as employed in graph theory, as well as functional properties to increase its fidelity and usefulness. By modelling a fictional electrified railway network that consists of five systems and interdependencies between the systems, it is shown how the model can be employed in a vulnerability analysis. The model aims to capture both functional and geographic interdependencies. It is concluded that the proposed modelling approach is promising and suitable in the context of vulnerability analyses of interdependent systems.

  2. A conceptual model of the automated credibility assessment of the volunteered geographic information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idris, N H; Jackson, M J; Ishak, M H I

    2014-01-01

    The use of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) in collecting, sharing and disseminating geospatially referenced information on the Web is increasingly common. The potentials of this localized and collective information have been seen to complement the maintenance process of authoritative mapping data sources and in realizing the development of Digital Earth. The main barrier to the use of this data in supporting this bottom up approach is the credibility (trust), completeness, accuracy, and quality of both the data input and outputs generated. The only feasible approach to assess these data is by relying on an automated process. This paper describes a conceptual model of indicators (parameters) and practical approaches to automated assess the credibility of information contributed through the VGI including map mashups, Geo Web and crowd – sourced based applications. There are two main components proposed to be assessed in the conceptual model – metadata and data. The metadata component comprises the indicator of the hosting (websites) and the sources of data / information. The data component comprises the indicators to assess absolute and relative data positioning, attribute, thematic, temporal and geometric correctness and consistency. This paper suggests approaches to assess the components. To assess the metadata component, automated text categorization using supervised machine learning is proposed. To assess the correctness and consistency in the data component, we suggest a matching validation approach using the current emerging technologies from Linked Data infrastructures and using third party reviews validation. This study contributes to the research domain that focuses on the credibility, trust and quality issues of data contributed by web citizen providers

  3. [Suicide and evaluation. Review of French tools: Non-dimensional approach and self-assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducher, J-L; de Chazeron, I; Llorca, P-M

    2016-06-01

    Suicide prevention represents a major challenge to public health, and the suicide risk is a permanent concern in psychiatry. But the main difficulty is its diagnosis. What resources are available in French which seem to help therapists in this process? We can distinguish the non-dimensional approach, the use of self-administered questionnaires or interviewer-administrated questionnaires. In this paper, for reasons of editing constraints, we are interested only in a non-dimensional approach and direct assessment measures by self-assessment, analysing the strengths and limitations of each and taking into account scientific studies that have been devoted to them and their clinical relevance. We first considered various aspects of non-dimensional approach through suicidal risk factors research, suicidal emergency and suicidal potential concepts, Shea approach, the model of Mann and some recommended evaluations. This type of approach has a number of advantages, but also limitations. Dimensional approach allows going further. In this article, we also discuss the existing self-assessment tools in French as for example dedicated item for Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) or specific scales such as Reasons for Living Inventory (RFL), Suicidal Probability Scale (SPS), Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) and self-administered Suicide Risk Assessment Scale of Ducher (aRSD). These last two seem to be used as a priority regarding result of their validation studies. The strong correlation between the self-administered questionnaire aRSD and the interviewer-administered Suicide Risk Assessment Scale of Ducher RSD (r=0.92; P<10(-7)) shows the ability of patients to express their suicidal ideation if we want to invite them to do so. Copyright © 2015 L'Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Spanish methodological approach for biosphere assessment of radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agueero, A.; Pinedo, P.; Cancio, D.; Simon, I.; Moraleda, M.; Perez-Sanchez, D.; Trueba, C.

    2007-01-01

    The development of radioactive waste disposal facilities requires implementation of measures that will afford protection of human health and the environment over a specific temporal frame that depends on the characteristics of the wastes. The repository design is based on a multi-barrier system: (i) the near-field or engineered barrier, (ii) far-field or geological barrier and (iii) the biosphere system. Here, the focus is on the analysis of this last system, the biosphere. A description is provided of conceptual developments, methodological aspects and software tools used to develop the Biosphere Assessment Methodology in the context of high-level waste (HLW) disposal facilities in Spain. This methodology is based on the BIOMASS 'Reference Biospheres Methodology' and provides a logical and systematic approach with supplementary documentation that helps to support the decisions necessary for model development. It follows a five-stage approach, such that a coherent biosphere system description and the corresponding conceptual, mathematical and numerical models can be built. A discussion on the improvements implemented through application of the methodology to case studies in international and national projects is included. Some facets of this methodological approach still require further consideration, principally an enhanced integration of climatology, geography and ecology into models considering evolution of the environment, some aspects of the interface between the geosphere and biosphere, and an accurate quantification of environmental change processes and rates

  5. Spanish methodological approach for biosphere assessment of radioactive waste disposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agüero, A; Pinedo, P; Cancio, D; Simón, I; Moraleda, M; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Trueba, C

    2007-10-01

    The development of radioactive waste disposal facilities requires implementation of measures that will afford protection of human health and the environment over a specific temporal frame that depends on the characteristics of the wastes. The repository design is based on a multi-barrier system: (i) the near-field or engineered barrier, (ii) far-field or geological barrier and (iii) the biosphere system. Here, the focus is on the analysis of this last system, the biosphere. A description is provided of conceptual developments, methodological aspects and software tools used to develop the Biosphere Assessment Methodology in the context of high-level waste (HLW) disposal facilities in Spain. This methodology is based on the BIOMASS "Reference Biospheres Methodology" and provides a logical and systematic approach with supplementary documentation that helps to support the decisions necessary for model development. It follows a five-stage approach, such that a coherent biosphere system description and the corresponding conceptual, mathematical and numerical models can be built. A discussion on the improvements implemented through application of the methodology to case studies in international and national projects is included. Some facets of this methodological approach still require further consideration, principally an enhanced integration of climatology, geography and ecology into models considering evolution of the environment, some aspects of the interface between the geosphere and biosphere, and an accurate quantification of environmental change processes and rates.

  6. Regulatory Forum commentary: alternative mouse models for future cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Daniel; Sistare, Frank D; Nambiar, Prashant R; Turner, Oliver C; Radi, Zaher; Bower, Nancy

    2014-07-01

    International regulatory and pharmaceutical industry scientists are discussing revision of the International Conference on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) S1 guidance on rodent carcinogenicity assessment of small molecule pharmaceuticals. A weight-of-evidence approach is proposed to determine the need for rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with high human cancer risk, the product may be labeled appropriately without conducting rodent carcinogenicity studies. For compounds with minimal cancer risk, only a 6-month transgenic mouse study (rasH2 mouse or p53+/- mouse) or a 2-year mouse study would be needed. If rodent carcinogenicity testing may add significant value to cancer risk assessment, a 2-year rat study and either a 6-month transgenic mouse or a 2-year mouse study is appropriate. In many cases, therefore, one rodent carcinogenicity study could be sufficient. The rasH2 model predicts neoplastic findings relevant to human cancer risk assessment as well as 2-year rodent models, produces fewer irrelevant neoplastic outcomes, and often will be preferable to a 2-year rodent study. Before revising ICH S1 guidance, a prospective evaluation will be conducted to test the proposed weight-of-evidence approach. This evaluation offers an opportunity for a secondary analysis comparing the value of alternative mouse models and 2-year rodent studies in the proposed ICH S1 weight-of-evidence approach for human cancer risk assessment. © 2014 by The Author(s).

  7. Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling Approach on Decision-Making: Example using Equipment Performance Indicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana Kelly; Robert Youngblood

    2012-06-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are an integral part of risk-informed regulation of current and future nuclear plants in the U.S. The Bayesian approach to uncertainty, in which both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties are represented with precise probability distributions, is the standard approach to modeling uncertainties in such quantitative risk assessments. However, there are long-standing criticisms of the Bayesian approach to epistemic uncertainty from many perspectives, and a number of alternative approaches have been proposed. Among these alternatives, the most promising (and most rapidly developing) would appear to be the concept of imprecise probability. In this paper, we employ a performance indicator example to focus the discussion. We first give a short overview of the traditional Bayesian paradigm and review some its controversial aspects, for example, issues with so-called noninformative prior distributions. We then discuss how the imprecise probability approach treats these issues and compare it with two other approaches: sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayes modeling. We conclude with some practical implications for risk-informed decision making.

  8. Specifying and Refining a Measurement Model for a Simulation-Based Assessment. CSE Report 619.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy; Mislevy, Robert J.

    2004-01-01

    The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

  9. Development and exemplification of a model for Teacher Assessment in Primary Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, D. J.; Earle, S.; McMahon, K.; Howe, A.; Collier, C.

    2017-09-01

    The Teacher Assessment in Primary Science project is funded by the Primary Science Teaching Trust and based at Bath Spa University. The study aims to develop a whole-school model of valid, reliable and manageable teacher assessment to inform practice and make a positive impact on primary-aged children's learning in science. The model is based on a data-flow 'pyramid' (analogous to the flow of energy through an ecosystem), whereby the rich formative assessment evidence gathered in the classroom is summarised for monitoring, reporting and evaluation purposes [Nuffield Foundation. (2012). Developing policy, principles and practice in primary school science assessment. London: Nuffield Foundation]. Using a design-based research (DBR) methodology, the authors worked in collaboration with teachers from project schools and other expert groups to refine, elaborate, validate and operationalise the data-flow 'pyramid' model, resulting in the development of a whole-school self-evaluation tool. In this paper, we argue that a DBR approach to theory-building and school improvement drawing upon teacher expertise has led to the identification, adaptation and successful scaling up of a promising approach to school self-evaluation in relation to assessment in science.

  10. Which Cooperative Ownership Model Performs Better? A Financial-Decision Aid Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalogeras, N.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Benos, T.; Doumpos, M.

    2013-01-01

    In this article the financial/ownership structures of agribusiness cooperatives are analyzed to examine whether new cooperative models perform better than the more traditional ones. The assessment procedure introduces a new financial decision-aid approach, which is based on data-analysis techniques

  11. On quantum approach to modeling of plasmon photovoltaic effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kluczyk, Katarzyna; David, Christin; Jacak, Witold Aleksander

    2017-01-01

    Surface plasmons in metallic nanostructures including metallically nanomodified solar cells are conventionally studied and modeled by application of the Mie approach to plasmons or by the finite element solution of differential Maxwell equations with imposed boundary and material constraints (e...... to the semiconductor solar cell mediated by surface plasmons in metallic nanoparticles deposited on the top of the battery. In addition, short-ranged electron-electron interaction in metals is discussed in the framework of the semiclassical hydrodynamic model. The significance of the related quantum corrections......-aided photovoltaic phenomena. Quantum corrections considerably improve both the Mie and COMSOL approaches in this case. We present the semiclassical random phase approximation description of plasmons in metallic nanoparticles and apply the quantumFermi golden rule scheme to assess the sunlight energy transfer...

  12. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to

  13. Assessing Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Nitrogen Loss in a Forage-Based System Using a Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Piccini

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In intensive agriculture, N supply often exceeds crop requirements, even in nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZ. In farmland, the N surplus gives rise to NO3− leaching and consequent groundwater pollution. The present study aimed at proposing measures to reduce N leaching and hence improve N efficiency in a buffalo livestock farm located in the NVZ of Latina plain (Central Italy. The farm was cultivated with forage crops in a double annual crop rotation: Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam. in winter and silage corn (Zea mays L. in summer. Mineral and organic fertilizers were supplied to both crops. The annual N budget and soil solution NO3-N concentrations were evaluated using a modeling approach. The performance of the WinEPIC model in simulating the response of the NO3-N concentration in percolation to the N application rate was assessed and validated by field measurements of the NO3-N concentration in the soil solution. Three scenarios were proposed to identify the best practice to minimize the environmental impact of N application without significant yield loss. Also, recommendations of best practices in N fertilization and animal manure spreading were given. This study thus provides useful preliminary information for decision-making in agriculture/environmental policies.

  14. Selected examples of practical approaches for the assessment of model reliability - parameter uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, E.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1987-02-01

    The uncertainty analysis of model predictions has to discriminate between two fundamentally different types of uncertainty. The presence of stochastic variability (Type 1 uncertainty) necessitates the use of a probabilistic model instead of the much simpler deterministic one. Lack of knowledge (Type 2 uncertainty), however, applies to deterministic as well as to probabilistic model predictions and often dominates over uncertainties of Type 1. The term ''probability'' is interpreted differently in the probabilistic analysis of either type of uncertainty. After these discriminations have been explained the discussion centers on the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the model, the derivation of quantitative uncertainty statements for model predictions and the presentation and interpretation of the results of a Type 2 uncertainty analysis. Various alternative approaches are compared for a very simple deterministic model

  15. Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. SALPUTRA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy harmonized (PH approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how “common” policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model’s structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper’s penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.;

  16. Indoor aerosol modeling for assessment of exposure and respiratory tract deposited dose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussein, Tareq; Wierzbicka, Aneta; Löndahl, Jakob; Lazaridis, Mihalis; Hänninen, Otto

    2015-04-01

    Air pollution is one of the major environmental problems that influence people's health. Exposure to harmful particulate matter (PM) occurs both outdoors and indoors, but while people spend most of their time indoors, the indoor exposures tend to dominate. Moreover, higher PM concentrations due to indoor sources and tightness of indoor environments may substantially add to the outdoor originating exposures. Empirical and real-time assessment of human exposure is often impossible; therefore, indoor aerosol modeling (IAM) can be used as a superior method in exposure and health effects studies. This paper presents a simple approach in combining available aerosol-based modeling techniques to evaluate the real-time exposure and respiratory tract deposited dose based on particle size. Our simple approach consists of outdoor aerosol data base, IAM simulations, time-activity pattern data-base, physical-chemical properties of inhaled aerosols, and semi-empirical deposition fraction of aerosols in the respiratory tract. These modeling techniques allow the characterization of regional deposited dose in any metric: particle mass, particle number, and surface area. The first part of this presentation reviews recent advances in simple mass-balance based modeling methods that are needed in analyzing the health relevance of indoor exposures. The second part illustrates the use of IAM in the calculations of exposure and deposited dose. Contrary to previous methods, the approach presented is a real-time approach and it goes beyond the exposure assessment to provide the required information for the health risk assessment, which is the respiratory tract deposited dose. This simplified approach is foreseen to support epidemiological studies focusing on exposures originating from both indoor and outdoor sources.

  17. Intrinsic ethics regarding integrated assessment models for climate management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schienke, Erich W; Baum, Seth D; Tuana, Nancy; Davis, Kenneth J; Keller, Klaus

    2011-09-01

    In this essay we develop and argue for the adoption of a more comprehensive model of research ethics than is included within current conceptions of responsible conduct of research (RCR). We argue that our model, which we label the ethical dimensions of scientific research (EDSR), is a more comprehensive approach to encouraging ethically responsible scientific research compared to the currently typically adopted approach in RCR training. This essay focuses on developing a pedagogical approach that enables scientists to better understand and appreciate one important component of this model, what we call intrinsic ethics. Intrinsic ethical issues arise when values and ethical assumptions are embedded within scientific findings and analytical methods. Through a close examination of a case study and its application in teaching, namely, evaluation of climate change integrated assessment models, this paper develops a method and case for including intrinsic ethics within research ethics training to provide scientists with a comprehensive understanding and appreciation of the critical role of values and ethical choices in the production of research outcomes.

  18. Tensions between Knowledge Transmission and Student-Focused Teaching Approaches to Assessment Purposes: Helping Students Improve through Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Junjun; Brown, Gavin T. L.

    2016-01-01

    This study surveyed 1064 Chinese school teachers' approaches to teaching and conceptions of assessment, and examined their inter-relationship using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. Three approaches to teaching (i.e. Knowledge Transmission, Student-Focused, and Examination Preparation) and six conceptions of assessment…

  19. An approach for acquiring data for description of diffusion in safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vokal, A.; Vopalka, D.; Vecernik, P.; Institute of Chemical Technology in Prague, Prague

    2010-01-01

    the diffusion cell. A numerical model of the diffusion cell can model the decrease of concentration of species. The code, which we used for this type of evaluation of diffusion experiment, is based on the same approach to modelling that we use for modelling of the diffusion transport in performance assessment studies. The advantage of this approach consists in the compatibility of the approaches used for both evaluation and verification of the laboratory diffusion experiments and performance assessments and in considerable less time needed for experiments. (author)

  20. French radioactive wastes performance assessment and the natural analogues approach: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.

    1988-10-01

    One of the main difficulties linked to the Radioactive Waste Performance Assessment calculations lies in the scale of time and space underlying these calculations: mechanisms and parameters can directly be affected by time or space dependency. The ''natural analogues'' approach has evident advantages, at least qualitative, to enlighten these aspects. It may also provide confidence in our ability to model partial or overall natural systems. The following paper gives the headlines of the use of the ''natural analogues'' methodology in the French Radioactive Wastes Performance Assessment in the field of waste disposal

  1. Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

  2. Habitat hydraulic models - a tool for Danish stream quality assessment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Martin

    and hydromorphological and chemical characteristics has to be enlightened (EUROPA, 2005). This study links catchment hydrology, stream discharge and physical habitat in a small Danish stream, the stream Ledreborg, and discusses the utility of habitat hydraulic models in relation to the present criteria and methods used......).  Hydromorphological conditions in the stream are measured through field study, using a habitat mapping approach and modelled using a habitat hydraulic model (RHYHABSIM). Using RHYHABSIM and both "site-specific" and general HSI's, Weighted Usable Area (WUA) for the trout population at different discharges is assessed...... and differences between simulated WUA using "site-specific" and general habitat preferences are discussed. In RHYHABSIM it is possible to use two different approaches to investigate the hydromorphological conditions in a river, the habitat mapping approach used in this project and the representative reach...

  3. A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

    2018-03-01

    For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

  4. Transfer of Tritium in the Environment after Accidental Releases from Nuclear Facilities. Report of Working Group 7 Tritium Accidents of EMRAS II Topical Heading Approaches for Assessing Emergency Situations. Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (Emras II) Programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-07-01

    Environmental assessment models are used for evaluating the radiological impact of actual and potential releases of radionuclides to the environment. They are essential tools for use in the regulatory control of routine discharges to the environment and also in planning measures to be taken in the event of accidental releases. They are also used for predicting the impact of releases which may occur far into the future, for example, from underground radioactive waste repositories. It is important to verify, to the extent possible, the reliability of the predictions of such models by a comparison with measured values in the environment or with predictions of other models. The IAEA has been organizing programmes of international model testing since the 1980s. These programmes have contributed to a general improvement in models, in the transfer of data and in the capabilities of modellers in Member States. IAEA publications on this subject over the past three decades demonstrate the comprehensive nature of the programmes and record the associated advances which have been made. From 2009 to 2011, the IAEA organized a programme entitled Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II), which concentrated on the improvement of environmental transfer models and the development of reference approaches to estimate the radiological impacts on humans, as well as on flora and fauna, arising from radionuclides in the environment. Different aspects were addressed by nine working groups covering three themes: reference approaches for human dose assessment, reference approaches for biota dose assessment and approaches for assessing emergency situations. This publication describes the work of the Tritium Accidents Working Group

  5. Geothermal potential assessment for a low carbon strategy : A new systematic approach applied in southern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trumpy, E.; Botteghi, S.; Caiozzi, F.; Donato, A.; Gola, G.; Montanari, D.; Pluymaekers, M. P D; Santilano, A.; van Wees, J. D.; Manzella, A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study a new approach to geothermal potential assessment was set up and applied in four regions in southern Italy. Our procedure, VIGORThermoGIS, relies on the volume method of assessment and uses a 3D model of the subsurface to integrate thermal, geological and petro-physical data. The

  6. Geothermal potential assessment for a low carbon strategy: A new systematic approach applied in southern Italy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trumpy, E.; Botteghi, S.; Caiozzi, F.; Donato, A.; Gola, G.; Montanari, D.; Pluymaekers, M.P.D.; Santilano, A.; Wees, J.D. van; Manzella, A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study a new approach to geothermal potential assessment was set up and applied in four regions in southern Italy. Our procedure, VIGORThermoGIS, relies on the volume method of assessment and uses a 3D model of the subsurface to integrate thermal, geological and petro-physical data. The

  7. Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

  8. Behavior-based network management: a unique model-based approach to implementing cyber superiority

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seng, Jocelyn M.

    2016-05-01

    Behavior-Based Network Management (BBNM) is a technological and strategic approach to mastering the identification and assessment of network behavior, whether human-driven or machine-generated. Recognizing that all five U.S. Air Force (USAF) mission areas rely on the cyber domain to support, enhance and execute their tasks, BBNM is designed to elevate awareness and improve the ability to better understand the degree of reliance placed upon a digital capability and the operational risk.2 Thus, the objective of BBNM is to provide a holistic view of the digital battle space to better assess the effects of security, monitoring, provisioning, utilization management, allocation to support mission sustainment and change control. Leveraging advances in conceptual modeling made possible by a novel advancement in software design and implementation known as Vector Relational Data Modeling (VRDM™), the BBNM approach entails creating a network simulation in which meaning can be inferred and used to manage network behavior according to policy, such as quickly detecting and countering malicious behavior. Initial research configurations have yielded executable BBNM models as combinations of conceptualized behavior within a network management simulation that includes only concepts of threats and definitions of "good" behavior. A proof of concept assessment called "Lab Rat," was designed to demonstrate the simplicity of network modeling and the ability to perform adaptation. The model was tested on real world threat data and demonstrated adaptive and inferential learning behavior. Preliminary results indicate this is a viable approach towards achieving cyber superiority in today's volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environment.

  9. Modeling risk assessment for nuclear processing plants with LAVA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Tisinger, R.M.

    1988-01-01

    Using the Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (LAVA) methodology, the authors developed a model for assessing risks associated with nuclear processing plants. LAVA is a three-part systematic approach to risk assessment. The first part is the mathematical methodology; the second is the general personal computer-based software engine; and the third is the application itself. The methodology provides a framework for creating applications for the software engine to operate upon; all application-specific information is data. Using LAVA, the authors build knowledge-based expert systems to assess risks in applications systems comprising a subject system and a safeguards system. The subject system model is sets of threats, assets, and undesirable outcomes. The safeguards system model is sets of safeguards functions for protecting the assets from the threats by preventing or ameliorating the undesirable outcomes, sets of safeguards subfunctions whose performance determine whether the function is adequate and complete, and sets of issues, appearing as interactive questionnaires, whose measures (in both monetary and linguistic terms) define both the weaknesses in the safeguards system and the potential costs of an undesirable outcome occurring

  10. Assessing Vulnerability of Lake Erie Landscapes to Soil Erosion: Modelled and Measured Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joosse, P.; Laamrani, A.; Feisthauer, N.; Li, S.

    2017-12-01

    Loss of soil from agricultural landscapes to Lake Erie via water erosion is a key transport mechanism for phosphorus bound to soil particles. Agriculture is the dominant land use in the Canadian side of the Lake Erie basin with approximately 75% of the 2.3 million hectares under crop or livestock production. The variable geography and diversity of agricultural production systems and management practices makes estimating risk of soil erosion from agricultural landscapes in the Canadian Lake Erie basin challenging. Risk of soil erosion depends on a combination of factors including the extent to which soil remains bare, which differs with crop type and management. Two different approaches of estimating the vulnerability of landscapes to soil erosion will be compared among Soil Landscapes of Canada in the Lake Erie basin: a modelling approach incorporating farm census and soil survey data, represented by the 2011 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Agri-Environmental Indicator for Soil Erosion Risk; and, a measured approach using remotely sensed data that quantifies the magnitude of bare and covered soil across the basin. Results from both approaches will be compared by scaling the national level (1:1 million) Soil Erosion Risk Indicator and the remotely sensed data (30x30 m resolution) to the quaternary watershed level.

  11. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  12. Approaching time is important for assessment of endoscopic surgical skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokunaga, Masakazu; Egi, Hiroyuki; Hattori, Minoru; Yoshimitsu, Masanori; Sumitani, Daisuke; Kawahara, Tomohiro; Okajima, Masazumi; Ohdan, Hideki

    2012-05-01

    This study aimed to verify whether the approaching time (the time taken to reach the target point from another point, a short distance apart, during point-to-point movement in endoscopic surgery), assessed using the Hiroshima University Endoscopic Surgical Assessment Device (HUESAD), could distinguish the skill level of surgeons. Expert surgeons (who had performed more than 50 endoscopic surgeries) and novice surgeons (who had no experience in performing endoscopic surgery) were tested using the HUESAD. The approaching time, total time, and intermediate time (total time--approaching time) were measured and analyzed using the trajectory of the tip of the instrument. The approaching time and total time were significantly shorter in the expert group than in the novice group (p time did not significantly differ between the groups (p > 0.05). The approaching time, which is a component of the total time, is very mportant in the measurement of the total time to assess endoscopic surgical skills. Further, the approaching time was useful for skill assessment by the HUESAD for evaluating the skill of surgeons performing endoscopic surgery.

  13. Assessing Local Model Adequacy in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Using the Partitioned Deviance Information Criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, David C.; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Waller, Lance A.

    2010-01-01

    Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data. PMID:21243121

  14. Assessing and evaluating multidisciplinary translational teams: a mixed methods approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wooten, Kevin C; Rose, Robert M; Ostir, Glenn V; Calhoun, William J; Ameredes, Bill T; Brasier, Allan R

    2014-03-01

    A case report illustrates how multidisciplinary translational teams can be assessed using outcome, process, and developmental types of evaluation using a mixed-methods approach. Types of evaluation appropriate for teams are considered in relation to relevant research questions and assessment methods. Logic models are applied to scientific projects and team development to inform choices between methods within a mixed-methods design. Use of an expert panel is reviewed, culminating in consensus ratings of 11 multidisciplinary teams and a final evaluation within a team-type taxonomy. Based on team maturation and scientific progress, teams were designated as (a) early in development, (b) traditional, (c) process focused, or (d) exemplary. Lessons learned from data reduction, use of mixed methods, and use of expert panels are explored.

  15. Ensuring a proactive, evidence-based, patient safety approach to patient assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Considine, Julie; Currey, Judy

    2015-01-01

    To argue that if all nurses were to adopt the primary survey approach (assessment of airway, breathing, circulation and disability) as the first element of patient assessment, they would be more focused on active detection of clinical deterioration rather than passive collection of patient data. Nurses are the professional group that carry the highest level of responsibility for patient assessment, accurate data collection and interpretation. The timely recognition of, and response to deteriorating patients, is dependent on the measurement and interpretation of pertinent physiological data by nurses. Discursive paper. Traditionally taught and commonly used approaches to patient assessment such as 'vital signs' and 'body systems' are not evidence-based nor framed in patient safety. The primary survey approach as the first element in patient assessment has three major advantages: (1) data are collected according to clinical importance; (2) data are collected using the same framework as most organisation's rapid response system activation criteria; and (3) the primary survey acts as a patient safety checklist, thereby decreasing the risk of failure to recognise, and therefore respond to, deteriorating patients. The vital signs and body systems approaches to patient assessment have significant limitations in identifying clinical deterioration. The primary survey approach provides nurses with a consistent, evidence-based and sequenced approach to patient assessment in every clinical setting. All nurses should use a primary survey approach as the first element of patient assessment in every patient encounter as a patient safety strategy. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Assessing Sustainability Curriculum: From Transmissive to Transformative Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaard, Greta C.; Blades, Jarod; Wright, Mary

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to describe a two-stage sustainability curriculum assessment, providing tools and strategies for other faculty to use in implementing their own sustainability assessments. Design/methodology/approach: In the first stage of the five-year curriculum assessment, the authors used an anonymous survey of sustainability faculty…

  17. Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chan, Hing Kai

    2013-01-01

    Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information.   This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well.   Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment  comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.

  18. Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

    2018-05-01

    Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

  19. Comparative evaluation of life cycle assessment models for solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Joerg; Bilitewski, Bernd

    2007-01-01

    This publication compares a selection of six different models developed in Europe and America by research organisations, industry associations and governmental institutions. The comparison of the models reveals the variations in the results and the differences in the conclusions of an LCA study done with these models. The models are compared by modelling a specific case - the waste management system of Dresden, Germany - with each model and an in-detail comparison of the life cycle inventory results. Moreover, a life cycle impact assessment shows if the LCA results of each model allows for comparable and consecutive conclusions, which do not contradict the conclusions derived from the other models' results. Furthermore, the influence of different level of detail in the life cycle inventory of the life cycle assessment is demonstrated. The model comparison revealed that the variations in the LCA results calculated by the models for the case show high variations and are not negligible. In some cases the high variations in results lead to contradictory conclusions concerning the environmental performance of the waste management processes. The static, linear modelling approach chosen by all models analysed is inappropriate for reflecting actual conditions. Moreover, it was found that although the models' approach to LCA is comparable on a general level, the level of detail implemented in the software tools is very different

  20. An Open Modelling Approach for Availability and Reliability of Systems - OpenMARS

    CERN Document Server

    Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Gutleber, Johannes

    2018-01-01

    This document introduces and gives specification for OpenMARS, which is an open modelling approach for availability and reliability of systems. It supports the most common risk assessment and operation modelling techniques. Uniquely OpenMARS allows combining and connecting models defined with different techniques. This ensures that a modeller has a high degree of freedom to accurately describe the modelled system without limitations imposed by an individual technique. Here the OpenMARS model definition is specified with a tool independent tabular format, which supports managing models developed in a collaborative fashion. Origin of our research is in Future Circular Collider (FCC) study, where we developed the unique features of our concept to model the availability and luminosity production of particle colliders. We were motivated to describe our approach in detail as we see potential further applications in performance and energy efficiency analyses of large scientific infrastructures or industrial processe...

  1. A unified approach to failure assessment of engineering structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R.P.

    1977-01-01

    A codified procedure for the failure assessment of engineering structures is presented which has as its basis the two criteria approach of Dowling and Townley (Int. J. Press. Vessels and Piping; 3:77 (1975)) and the Bilby, Cottrell and Swinden (Proc. R. Soc.; A272:304 (1963)) and Dugdale (J. Mech. Phys. Sol.; 8:100 (1960)) model of yielding ahead of a crack tip. The procedure consists of independently assessing the risk of failure (a) under linear elastic conditions only and (b) under plastic collapse conditions only. These two limiting criteria are then plotted as a co-ordinate point on a Failure Assessment Diagram. From this a measure of the degree of safety of the structure can be obtained. As examples, several of the HSST vessel tests are used to indicate the simplicity and versatility of the procedure. It is shown how maximum allowable pressures or defect sizes can be obtained and how safety factors can be readily incorporated on any of the parameters used in the assessment. It is also demonstrated how helpful the procedure is in designing not only working structures, but also structures that are to be used for testing. (author)

  2. Illustration of probabilistic approach in consequence assessment of accidental radioactive releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pecha, P.; Hofman, R.; Kuca, P.

    2009-01-01

    We are describing a certain application of uncertainty analysis of environmental model HARP applied on atmospheric and deposition sub-model. Simulation of uncertainties propagation through the model is basic inevitable task bringing data for advanced techniques of probabilistic consequence assessment and further improvement of reliability of model predictions based on statistical procedures of assimilation with measured data. The activities are investigated in the institute IITA AV CR within the grant project supported by GACR (2007-2009). The problem is solved in close cooperation with section of information systems in institute NRPI. The subject of investigation concerns evaluation of consequences of radioactivity propagation after an accidental radioactivity release from nuclear facility.Transport of activity is studied from initial atmospheric propagation, deposition of radionuclides on terrain and spreading through food chains towards human body .Subsequent deposition processes of admixtures and food chain activity transport are modeled. In the final step a hazard estimation based on doses on population is integrated into the software system HARP. Extension to probabilistic approach has increased the complexity substantially, but offers much more informative background for modem methods of estimation accounting for inherent stochastic nature of the problem. Example of probabilistic assessment illustrated here is based on uncertainty analysis of input parameters of SGPM model. Predicted background field of Cs-137 deposition are labelled with index p. as P X SGPM . Final goal is estimation of a certain unknown true background vector χ true , which accounts also for deficiencies of the SGPM formulation in itself insisting in insufficient description of reality. We must have on mind, that even if we know true values of all input parameters θ m true (m= 1 ,..., M) of SGPM model, the χ true still remain uncertain. One possibility how to approach reality insists

  3. Illustration of probabilistic approach in consequence assessment of accidental radioactive releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pecha, P.; Hofman, R.; Kuca, P.

    2008-01-01

    We are describing a certain application of uncertainty analysis of environmental model HARP applied on atmospheric and deposition sub-model. Simulation of uncertainties propagation through the model is basic inevitable task bringing data for advanced techniques of probabilistic consequence assessment and further improvement of reliability of model predictions based on statistical procedures of assimilation with measured data. The activities are investigated in the institute IITA AV CR within the grant project supported by GACR (2007-2009). The problem is solved in close cooperation with section of information systems in institute NRPI. The subject of investigation concerns evaluation of consequences of radioactivity propagation after an accidental radioactivity release from nuclear facility.Transport of activity is studied from initial atmospheric propagation, deposition of radionuclides on terrain and spreading through food chains towards human body .Subsequent deposition processes of admixtures and food chain activity transport are modeled. In the final step a hazard estimation based on doses on population is integrated into the software system HARP. Extension to probabilistic approach has increased the complexity substantially, but offers much more informative background for modem methods of estimation accounting for inherent stochastic nature of the problem. Example of probabilistic assessment illustrated here is based on uncertainty analysis of input parameters of SGPM model. Predicted background field of Cs-137 deposition are labelled with index p. as P X SGPM . Final goal is estimation of a certain unknown true background vector χ true , which accounts also for deficiencies of the SGPM formulation in itself insisting in insufficient description of reality. We must have on mind, that even if we know true values of all input parameters θ m true (m= 1 ,..., M) of SGPM model, the χ true still remain uncertain. One possibility how to approach reality insists

  4. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, S.

    2000-01-01

    In a recent study carried out for the European Commission, the scope and application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) legislation and current EIA practice in European Union Member States and applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe was investigated, specifically in relation to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. This paper reports the study's investigations into a model approach to EIA in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment in the overall decision processes and public involvement. (author)

  5. A risk management process for reinforced concrete structures by coupling modelling, monitoring and Bayesian approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capra, Bruno; Li, Kefei; Wolff, Valentin; Bernard, Olivier; Gerard, Bruno

    2004-01-01

    The impact of steel corrosion on the durability of reinforced concrete structures has since a long time been a major concern in civil engineering. The main electrochemical mechanisms of the steel corrosion are know well known. The material and structure degradation is attributed to the progressive formation of an expansive corrosion product at the steel-concrete interface. To assess quantitatively the structure lifetime, a two-stage service life model has been accepted widely. So far, the research attention is mainly given to the corrosion in an un-cracked concrete. However. practically one is often confronted to the reinforcement corrosion in an already cracked concrete. How to quantify the corrosion risk is of great interest for the long term durability of these cracked structures. To this end, this paper proposes a service life modeling for the corrosion process by carbonation in a cracked or un-cracked concrete depending on the observation or monitoring data available. Some recent experimental investigations are used to calibrate the models. Then, the models are applied to a shell structure to quantify the corrosion process and determine the optimal maintenance strategy. As corrosion processes are very difficult to model and subjected to material and environmental random variations, an example of structure reassessment is presented taking into account in situ information by the mean of Bayesian approaches. The coupling of monitoring, modelling and updating leads to a new global maintenance strategy of infrastructure. In conclusion: This paper presents an unified methodology coupling predictive models, observations and Bayesian approaches in order to assess the degradation degree of an ageing structure. The particular case of corrosion is treated on an innovative way by the development of a service life model taking into account cracking effects on the kinetics of the phenomena. At a material level, the dominant factors are the crack opening and the crack nature

  6. Flood hazard assessment using 1D and 2D approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petaccia, Gabriella; Costabile, Pierfranco; Macchione, Francesco; Natale, Luigi

    2013-04-01

    The EU flood risk Directive (Directive 2007/60/EC) prescribes risk assessment and mapping to develop flood risk management plans. Flood hazard mapping may be carried out with mathematical models able to determine flood-prone areas once realistic conditions (in terms of discharge or water levels) are imposed at the boundaries of the case study. The deterministic models are mainly based on shallow water equations expressed in their 1D or 2D formulation. The 1D approach is widely used, especially in technical studies, due to its relative simplicity, its computational efficiency and also because it requires topographical data not as expensive as the ones needed by 2D models. Even if in a great number of practical situations, such as modeling in-channel flows and not too wide floodplains, the 1D approach may provide results close to the prediction of a more sophisticated 2D model, it must be pointed out that the correct use of a 1D model in practical situations is more complex than it may seem. The main issues to be correctly modeled in a 1D approach are the definition of hydraulic structures such as bridges and buildings interacting with the flow and the treatment of the tributaries. Clearly all these aspects have to be taken into account also in the 2D modeling, but with fewer difficulties. The purpose of this paper is to show how the above cited issues can be described using a 1D or 2D unsteady flow modeling. In particular the Authors will show the devices that have to be implemented in 1D modeling to get reliable predictions of water levels and discharges comparable to the ones obtained using a 2D model. Attention will be focused on an actual river (Crati river) located in the South of Italy. This case study is quite complicated since it deals with the simulation of channeled flows, overbank flows, interactions with buildings, bridges and tributaries. Accurate techniques, intentionally developed by the Authors to take into account all these peculiarities in 1D and 2

  7. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  8. Predicting Performance on MOOC Assessments using Multi-Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ren, Zhiyun; Rangwala, Huzefa; Johri, Aditya

    2016-01-01

    The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempt...

  9. Assessing for Learning: Some Dimensions Underlying New Approaches to Educational Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, John

    1995-01-01

    Different models of performance assessment arise from interactions of three dimensions of assessment: the measurement versus the standards model of testing, quantitative and qualitative assumptions concerning the nature of learning, and whether learning and testing are situated or decontextualized. Addresses difficulties in implementing…

  10. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge potential using ensembles of local models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Anthony J; Pollock, Daniel W

    2012-01-01

    A simple quantitative approach for assessing the artificial recharge potential of large regions using spatial ensembles of local models is proposed. The method extends existing qualitative approaches and enables rapid assessments within a programmable environment. Spatial discretization of a water resource region into continuous local domains allows simple local models to be applied independently in each domain using lumped parameters. The ensemble results can be analyzed directly or combined with other quantitative and thematic information and visualized as regional suitability maps. A case study considers the hydraulic potential for surface infiltration across a large water resource region using a published analytic model for basin recharge. The model solution was implemented within a geographic information system and evaluated independently in >21,000 local domains using lumped parameters derived from existing regional datasets. Computer execution times to run the whole ensemble and process the results were in the order of a few minutes. Relevant aspects of the case study results and general conclusions concerning the utility and limitations of the method are discussed. © 2011, CSIRO. Ground Water © 2011, National Ground Water Association.

  11. Behavioral facilitation: a cognitive model of individual differences in approach motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael D; Meier, Brian P; Tamir, Maya; Wilkowski, Benjamin M; Ode, Scott

    2009-02-01

    Approach motivation consists of the active, engaged pursuit of one's goals. The purpose of the present three studies (N = 258) was to examine whether approach motivation could be cognitively modeled, thereby providing process-based insights into personality functioning. Behavioral facilitation was assessed in terms of faster (or facilitated) reaction time with practice. As hypothesized, such tendencies predicted higher levels of approach motivation, higher levels of positive affect, and lower levels of depressive symptoms and did so across cognitive, behavioral, self-reported, and peer-reported outcomes. Tendencies toward behavioral facilitation, on the other hand, did not correlate with self-reported traits (Study 1) and did not predict avoidance motivation or negative affect (all studies). The results indicate a systematic relationship between behavioral facilitation in cognitive tasks and approach motivation in daily life. Results are discussed in terms of the benefits of modeling the cognitive processes hypothesized to underlie individual differences motivation, affect, and depression. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved

  12. Environmental Sensitivity in Nuclear Emergencies in Rural and Semi-natural Environments. Report of Working Group 8, Environmental Sensitivity of EMRAS II Topical Heading Approaches for Assessing Emergency Situations. Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II) Programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-11-01

    Environmental assessment models are used for evaluating the radiological impact of actual and potential releases of radionuclides to the environment. They are essential tools for use in the regulatory control of routine discharges to the environment and also in planning measures to be taken in the event of accidental releases. They are also used for predicting the impact of releases which may occur far into the future, for example, from underground radioactive waste repositories. It is important to verify, to the extent possible, the reliability of the predictions of such models by comparison with measured values in the environment or by comparing them with the predictions of other models. The IAEA has been organizing programmes of international model testing since the 1980s. The programmes have contributed to a general improvement in models, in transfer data and in the capabilities of modellers in Member States. IAEA publications on this subject over the past three decades demonstrate the comprehensive nature of the programmes and record the associated advances which have been made. From 2009 to 2011, the IAEA organized a programme entitled Environmental Modelling for RAdiation Safety (EMRAS II), which concentrated on the improvement of environmental transfer models and the development of reference approaches to estimate the radiological impacts on humans, as well as on flora and fauna, arising from radionuclides in the environment. The following topics were addressed in nine working groups: Reference Approaches for Human Dose Assessment - Working Group 1: Reference Methodologies for Controlling Discharges of Routine Releases; - Working Group 2: Reference Approaches to Modelling for Management and Remediation at NORM and Legacy Sites; - Working Group 3: Reference Models for Waste Disposal Reference Approaches for Biota Dose Assessment; - Working Group 4: Biota Modelling; - Working Group 5: Wildlife Transfer Coefficient Handbook; - Working Group 6: Biota Dose

  13. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masden, E.A.; Cook, A.S.C.P.

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  14. Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, E.A., E-mail: elizabeth.masden@uhi.ac.uk [Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College-UHI, University of the Highlands and Islands, Ormlie Road, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7EE (United Kingdom); Cook, A.S.C.P. [British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-15

    With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

  15. Assessment model validity document FARF31

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria

    2004-08-01

    The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity

  16. Economic and industrial development. EID - EMPLOY. Final report. Task 1. Review of approaches for employment impact assessment of renewable energy deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Breitschopf, Barbara [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Nathani, Carsten; Resch, Gustav

    2011-11-15

    full picture of the impacts of RE deployment on the total economy - covering all economic activities like production, service and consumption (industries, households). To get the number of additional jobs caused by RE deployment, they compare a situation without RE (baseline or counterfactual) to a situation under a strong RE deployment. In a second step, we characterize the studies inter alia by their scope, activities and impacts and show the relevant positive and negative effects that are included in gross or net impact assessment studies. The effects are briefly described in Table 0-1. While gross studies mainly include the positive effects listed here, net studies in general include positive and negative effects. Third, we distinguish between methodological approaches assessing impacts. We observe that the more effects are incorporated in the approach, the more data are needed, the more complex and demanding the methodological approach becomes and the more the impacts capture effects of and in the whole economy - representing net impacts. A simple approach requires a few data and allows answering simple questions concerning the impact on the RE-industry - representing gross impacts. We identify six main approaches, three for gross and three for net impacts. They are depicted in Figure 0-2. The methodological approaches are characterized by their effects captured, the complexity of model and additional data requirement (besides data on RE investments, capacities and generation) as well as by their depicted impacts reflecting the economic comprehensiveness. A detailed overview of the diverse studies in table form is given in the Annex to this report. Finally, we suggest to elaborate guidelines for the simple EF-approach, the gross IO-modelling and net IO-modelling approach. The first approach enables policy makers to do a quick assessment on gross effects, while the second is a more sophisticated approach for gross effects. The third approach builds on the gross IO

  17. Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

    2018-02-13

    Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

  18. The Methodical Instrumentarium for Assessing the Competitiveness of Business Model of Trade Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grosul Victoria A.

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article substantiates the need to assess the competitiveness of business model of enterprise. By analyzing, systematizing and generalizing the scientific work of foreign and domestic scientists, the basic methods of assessment were allocated and the feasibility of an integrated approach to assessing the competitiveness of business model of enterprise was argued. A scorecard system for evaluating the competitiveness of business model of trade enterprise has been developed and a structural and logical framework for the integrated assessment of the competitiveness of the indicated business model has been substantiated. Based on the Ishikawa diagram, potential competitive advantages have been defined and the «problem areas» have been identified that impact the competitiveness of business model of enterprise. The authors provide recommendations for transforming the business model of trade enterprise in the context of the enterprise’s orientation towards development.

  19. Introduction to the special section on mixture modeling in personality assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Aidan G C; Hallquist, Michael N

    2014-01-01

    Latent variable models offer a conceptual and statistical framework for evaluating the underlying structure of psychological constructs, including personality and psychopathology. Complex structures that combine or compare categorical and dimensional latent variables can be accommodated using mixture modeling approaches, which provide a powerful framework for testing nuanced theories about psychological structure. This special series includes introductory primers on cross-sectional and longitudinal mixture modeling, in addition to empirical examples applying these techniques to real-world data collected in clinical settings. This group of articles is designed to introduce personality assessment scientists and practitioners to a general latent variable framework that we hope will stimulate new research and application of mixture models to the assessment of personality and its pathology.

  20. Comparisons of Multilevel Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling Approaches to Actor-Partner Interdependence Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sehee; Kim, Soyoung

    2018-01-01

    There are basically two modeling approaches applicable to analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model: the multilevel modeling (hierarchical linear model) and the structural equation modeling. This article explains how to use these two models in analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model and how these two approaches work differently. As an empirical example, marital conflict data were used to analyze an actor-partner interdependence model. The multilevel modeling and the structural equation modeling produced virtually identical estimates for a basic model. However, the structural equation modeling approach allowed more realistic assumptions on measurement errors and factor loadings, rendering better model fit indices.

  1. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grift, B. van der; Griffioen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Historic emissions from ore smelters typically cause regional soil contamination. We developed a modelling approach to assess the impact of such contamination on groundwater and surface water load, coupling unsaturated zone leaching modelling with 3D groundwater transport modelling. Both historic

  2. Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

    2016-06-01

    In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  3. MERGING DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS IMPLEMENTING BAYESIAN APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeq

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades. It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  4. Assessing dynamic postural control during exergaming in older adults: A probabilistic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soancatl Aguilar, V; Lamoth, C J C; Maurits, N M; Roerdink, J B T M

    2018-02-01

    Digital games controlled by body movements (exergames) have been proposed as a way to improve postural control among older adults. Exergames are meant to be played at home in an unsupervised way. However, only few studies have investigated the effect of unsupervised home-exergaming on postural control. Moreover, suitable methods to dynamically assess postural control during exergaming are still scarce. Dynamic postural control (DPC) assessment could be used to provide both meaningful feedback and automatic adjustment of exergame difficulty. These features could potentially foster unsupervised exergaming at home and improve the effectiveness of exergames as tools to improve balance control. The main aim of this study is to investigate the effect of six weeks of unsupervised home-exergaming on DPC as assessed by a recently developed probabilistic model. High probability values suggest 'deteriorated' postural control, whereas low probability values suggest 'good' postural control. In a pilot study, ten healthy older adults (average 77.9, SD 7.2 years) played an ice-skating exergame at home half an hour per day, three times a week during six weeks. The intervention effect on DPC was assessed using exergaming trials recorded by Kinect at baseline and every other week. Visualization of the results suggests that the probabilistic model is suitable for real-time DPC assessment. Moreover, linear mixed model analysis and parametric bootstrapping suggest a significant intervention effect on DPC. In conclusion, these results suggest that unsupervised exergaming for improving DPC among older adults is indeed feasible and that probabilistic models could be a new approach to assess DPC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The Assessment of Eating Behaviour in Children Who Are Obese: A Psychological Approach. A Position Paper from the European Childhood Obesity Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braet, Caroline; O'Malley, Grace; Weghuber, Daniel; Vania, Andrea; Erhardt, Éva; Nowicka, Paulina; Mazur, Artur; Frelut, Marie Laure; Ardelt-Gattinger, Elisabeth

    2014-01-01

    Objective This paper introduces health professionals to the different psychological models thought to influence eating behaviour in the absence of hunger in children who are obese and to propose a method of assessing these behaviours in practice. Methods Clinical researchers from the European Childhood Obesity Group (ECOG) adopted an evidence-based approach to examine the literature concerning the assessment of eating behaviour in children who are obese. Studies published in English were filtered out of the medical and psychological literature from 1960 to the present, and the resulting bibliography was searched for relevant articles. Key themes from the current evidence were compiled and classified according to the underpinning psychological models. Based on the current evidence and the authors' combined clinical experience, a three-staged approach to assessment was agreed by consensus. Results Valid and reliable tools for assessing and monitoring each of the three identified models (Dietary Restraint Theory, Emotional Eating and the Diathesis-Stress Model) are suggested for use in clinical practice, and the ECOG three-staged approach to assessing eating behaviours in the absence of hunger is described. Conclusions This paper presents practical guidance on how to assess eating behaviour in the absence of hunger in children who are clinically obese and suggests a focus for future research. PMID:24820848

  6. [Training of health personnel in the framework of humanitarian action. Choosing an assessment model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchand, C; Gagnayre, R; d'Ivernois, J F

    1996-01-01

    There are very few examples of health training assessment in developing countries. Such an undertaking faces a number of difficulties concerning the problems inherent to assessment, the particular and unstable nature of the environment, and the problems associated with humanitarian action and development aid. It is difficult to choose between a formal and a natural approach. Indeed, a dual approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data seems best suited to a variety of cultural contexts of variable stability. Faced with these difficulties, a criteria-based, formative, quality-oriented assessment aimed at improving teaching and learning methods should be able to satisfy the needs of training professionals. We propose a training assessment guide based on an assessment model which aims to improve training techniques using comprehensive, descriptive and prescriptive approaches.

  7. Assessing sufficient capability: A new approach to economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Paul Mark; Roberts, Tracy E; Barton, Pelham M; Coast, Joanna

    2015-08-01

    Amartya Sen's capability approach has been discussed widely in the health economics discipline. Although measures have been developed to assess capability in economic evaluation, there has been much less attention paid to the decision rules that might be applied alongside. Here, new methods, drawing on the multidimensional poverty and health economics literature, are developed for conducting economic evaluation within the capability approach and focusing on an objective of achieving "sufficient capability". This objective more closely reflects the concern with equity that pervades the capability approach and the method has the advantage of retaining the longitudinal aspect of estimating outcome that is associated with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whilst also drawing on notions of shortfall associated with assessments of poverty. Economic evaluation from this perspective is illustrated in an osteoarthritis patient group undergoing joint replacement, with capability wellbeing assessed using ICECAP-O. Recommendations for taking the sufficient capability approach forward are provided. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. An integrated DEA PCA numerical taxonomy approach for energy efficiency assessment and consumption optimization in energy intensive manufacturing sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azadeh, A.; Amalnick, M.S.; Ghaderi, S.F.; Asadzadeh, S.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper introduces an integrated approach based on data envelopment analysis (DEA), principal component analysis (PCA) and numerical taxonomy (NT) for total energy efficiency assessment and optimization in energy intensive manufacturing sectors. Total energy efficiency assessment and optimization of the proposed approach considers structural indicators in addition conventional consumption and manufacturing sector output indicators. The validity of the DEA model is verified and validated by PCA and NT through Spearman correlation experiment. Moreover, the proposed approach uses the measure-specific super-efficiency DEA model for sensitivity analysis to determine the critical energy carriers. Four energy intensive manufacturing sectors are discussed in this paper: iron and steel, pulp and paper, petroleum refining and cement manufacturing sectors. To show superiority and applicability, the proposed approach has been applied to refinery sub-sectors of some OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. This study has several unique features which are: (1) a total approach which considers structural indicators in addition to conventional energy efficiency indicators; (2) a verification and validation mechanism for DEA by PCA and NT and (3) utilization of DEA for total energy efficiency assessment and consumption optimization of energy intensive manufacturing sectors

  9. Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudari Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

  10. Aircraft operational reliability—A model-based approach and a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiassou, Kossi; Kanoun, Karama; Kaâniche, Mohamed; Seguin, Christel; Papadopoulos, Chris

    2013-01-01

    The success of an aircraft mission is subject to the fulfillment of some operational requirements before and during each flight. As these requirements depend essentially on the aircraft system components and the mission profile, the effects of failures can be very severe if they are not anticipated. Hence, one should be able to assess the aircraft operational reliability with regard to its missions in order to be able to cope with failures. We address aircraft operational reliability modeling to support maintenance planning during the mission achievement. We develop a modeling approach, based on a meta-model that is used as a basis: (i) to structure the information needed to assess aircraft operational reliability and (ii) to build a stochastic model that can be tuned dynamically, in order to take into account the aircraft system operational state, a mission profile and the maintenance facilities available at the flight stop locations involved in the mission. The aim is to enable operational reliability assessment online. A case study, based on an aircraft subsystem, is considered for illustration using the Stochastic Activity Networks (SANs) formalism

  11. Improving Baseline Model Assumptions: Evaluating the Impacts of Typical Methodological Approaches in Watershed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenich, R. L.; Kalcic, M. M.; Teshager, A. D.; Long, C. M.; Wang, Y. C.; Scavia, D.

    2017-12-01

    Thanks to the availability of open-source software, online tutorials, and advanced software capabilities, watershed modeling has expanded its user-base and applications significantly in the past thirty years. Even complicated models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are being used and documented in hundreds of peer-reviewed publications each year, and likely more applied in practice. These models can help improve our understanding of present, past, and future conditions, or analyze important "what-if" management scenarios. However, baseline data and methods are often adopted and applied without rigorous testing. In multiple collaborative projects, we have evaluated the influence of some of these common approaches on model results. Specifically, we examined impacts of baseline data and assumptions involved in manure application, combined sewer overflows, and climate data incorporation across multiple watersheds in the Western Lake Erie Basin. In these efforts, we seek to understand the impact of using typical modeling data and assumptions, versus using improved data and enhanced assumptions on model outcomes and thus ultimately, study conclusions. We provide guidance for modelers as they adopt and apply data and models for their specific study region. While it is difficult to quantitatively assess the full uncertainty surrounding model input data and assumptions, recognizing the impacts of model input choices is important when considering actions at the both the field and watershed scales.

  12. LEADING CHANGES IN ASSESSMENT USING AN EVIDENCE BASED APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. O. Macaulay

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and objectivesIt is has been widely accepted that assessment of learning is a critical component of education and that assessment drives/guides student learning through shaping study habits and student approaches to learning. However, although most academics would agree that assessment is a critical aspect of their roles as teachers it is often an aspect of teaching that is regarded more as an additional task rather than an integral component of the teaching/learning continuum. An additional impediment to high quality assessment is the non-evidence based-approach to the decision making process. The overall aim of this project was to improve the quality of assessment in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology undergraduate education by promoting high quality assessment.Materials and methodsTo do this we developed and trialled an audit tool for mapping assessment practices. The audit tool was designed to gather data on current assessment practices and identify areas of good practice in which assessment aligned with the learning objectives and areas in need of improvement. This evidence base will then be used to drive change in assessment.Results and conclusionsUsing the assessment mapping tool we have mapped the assessment regime in a Biochemistry and Molecular Biology major at Monash University. Criteria used included: assessment type, format, timing, assessors, provision of feedback, level of learning (Bloom’s, approaches taken to planning assessment. We have mapped assessment of content and the systematic development of higher order learning and skills progression throughout the program of study. The data has enabled us to examine the assessment at unit (course level as well as the vertical development across the major. This information is now being used to inform a review of the units and the major.

  13. An alternative approach to assessing feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elfimov Valeriy Ivanovich

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Effective parameters on feasibility of sediment flushing through reservoirs include hydrological, hydraulic, and topographic properties of the reservoirs. In this study, the performances of the Decision tree forest (DTF and Group method of data handling (GMDH for assessing feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs, were investigated. In this way, Decision tree Forest, that combines multiple Decision tree, used to evaluate the relative importance of factors affecting flushing sediment. At the second step, GMDH deployed to predict the feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs. Results indicate that these models, as an efficient novel approach with an acceptable range of error, can be used successfully for assessing feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs.

  14. Assessment of vulnerability zones for ground water pollution using GIS-DRASTIC-EC model: A field-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anantha Rao, D.; Naik, Pradeep K.; Jain, Sunil K.; Vinod Kumar, K.; Dhanamjaya Rao, E. N.

    2018-06-01

    Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution is an essential pre-requisite for better planning of an area. We present the groundwater vulnerability assessment in parts of the Yamuna Nagar District, Haryana State, India in an area of about 800 km2, considered to be a freshwater zone in the foothills of the Siwalik Hill Ranges. Such areas in the Lower Himalayas form good groundwater recharge zones, and should always be free from contamination. But, the administration has been trying to promote industrialization along these foothill zones without actually assessing the environmental consequences such activities may invite in the future. GIS-DRASTIC model has been used with field based data inputs for studying the vulnerability assessment. But, we find that inclusion electrical conductivity (EC) as a model parameter makes it more robust. Therefore, we rename it as GIS-DRASTIC-EC model. The model identifies three vulnerability zones such as low, moderate and high with an areal extent of 5%, 80% and 15%, respectively. On the basis of major chemical parameters alone, the groundwater in the foothill zones apparently looks safe, but analysis with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the groundwater quality in terms of identifying the vulnerable areas.

  15. A Multi-Model Approach for System Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Bækgaard, Mikkel Ask Buur

    2007-01-01

    A multi-model approach for system diagnosis is presented in this paper. The relation with fault diagnosis as well as performance validation is considered. The approach is based on testing a number of pre-described models and find which one is the best. It is based on an active approach......,i.e. an auxiliary input to the system is applied. The multi-model approach is applied on a wind turbine system....

  16. Risk assessment and management approaches on mental health units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, P

    2013-11-01

    This exploratory and descriptive study took place in one Canadian province. The study aimed to: (1) to identify and describe the nature and extent of current risk assessment and management approaches used in the adult inpatient mental health and forensic units; and (2) to identify good practice and shortfalls in the nature and extent of the approaches currently utilized. Data were collected from 48 participants through nine focus groups. Participants reported that they used a clinical approach to risk assessment. They had also not considered risk assessment and management as a proactive structured process. Education and training was also limited and skills were developed over time through practice. Five keys issues are discussed as important: reliance on clinical judgement alone is not the best choice to make; the need to consider risk as a whole concept; risk management being more reactive than proactive; education and training; and client involvement in risk assessment. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Conceptualizing strategic environmental assessment: Principles, approaches and research directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, Bram; Nwanekezie, Kelechi

    2017-01-01

    Increasing emphasis has been placed in recent years on transitioning strategic environmental assessment (SEA) away from its environmental impact assessment (EIA) roots. Scholars have argued the need to conceptualize SEA as a process designed to facilitate strategic thinking, thus enabling transitions toward sustainability. The practice of SEA, however, remains deeply rooted in the EIA tradition and scholars and practitioners often appear divided on the nature and purpose of SEA. This paper revisits the strategic principles of SEA and conceptualizes SEA as a multi-faceted and multi-dimensional assessment process. It is suggested that SEA can be conceptualized as series of approaches operating along a spectrum from less to more strategic – from impact assessment-based to strategy-based – with each approach to SEA differentiated by the specific objectives of SEA application and the extent to which strategic principles are reflected in its design and implementation. Advancing the effectiveness of SEA requires a continued research agenda focused on improving the traditional SEA approach, as a tool to assess the impacts of policies, plans and programs (PPPs). Realizing the full potential of SEA, however, requires a new research agenda — one focused on the development and testing of a deliberative governance approach to SEA that can facilitate strategic innovations in PPP formulation and drive transitions in short-term policy and initiatives based on longer-term thinking. - Highlights: • SEA facilitates strategic thinking, enabling transitions toward sustainability. • SEA is conceptualized as a spectrum of approaches, from IA-based to strategy-based. • Each approach variably emphasizes strategic principles in its design and practice. • There is no one conceptualization of SEA that is best, SEA is fit for PPP purpose. • Research is needed to advance SEA to facilitate strategic PPP transformations.

  18. Conceptualizing strategic environmental assessment: Principles, approaches and research directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noble, Bram, E-mail: b.noble@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning, and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada); Nwanekezie, Kelechi [Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    Increasing emphasis has been placed in recent years on transitioning strategic environmental assessment (SEA) away from its environmental impact assessment (EIA) roots. Scholars have argued the need to conceptualize SEA as a process designed to facilitate strategic thinking, thus enabling transitions toward sustainability. The practice of SEA, however, remains deeply rooted in the EIA tradition and scholars and practitioners often appear divided on the nature and purpose of SEA. This paper revisits the strategic principles of SEA and conceptualizes SEA as a multi-faceted and multi-dimensional assessment process. It is suggested that SEA can be conceptualized as series of approaches operating along a spectrum from less to more strategic – from impact assessment-based to strategy-based – with each approach to SEA differentiated by the specific objectives of SEA application and the extent to which strategic principles are reflected in its design and implementation. Advancing the effectiveness of SEA requires a continued research agenda focused on improving the traditional SEA approach, as a tool to assess the impacts of policies, plans and programs (PPPs). Realizing the full potential of SEA, however, requires a new research agenda — one focused on the development and testing of a deliberative governance approach to SEA that can facilitate strategic innovations in PPP formulation and drive transitions in short-term policy and initiatives based on longer-term thinking. - Highlights: • SEA facilitates strategic thinking, enabling transitions toward sustainability. • SEA is conceptualized as a spectrum of approaches, from IA-based to strategy-based. • Each approach variably emphasizes strategic principles in its design and practice. • There is no one conceptualization of SEA that is best, SEA is fit for PPP purpose. • Research is needed to advance SEA to facilitate strategic PPP transformations.

  19. PROCRU: A model for analyzing crew procedures in approach to landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Lancraft, R.; Zacharias, G.

    1980-01-01

    A model for analyzing crew procedures in approach to landing is developed. The model employs the information processing structure used in the optimal control model and in recent models for monitoring and failure detection. Mechanisms are added to this basic structure to model crew decision making in this multi task environment. Decisions are based on probability assessments and potential mission impact (or gain). Sub models for procedural activities are included. The model distinguishes among external visual, instrument visual, and auditory sources of information. The external visual scene perception models incorporate limitations in obtaining information. The auditory information channel contains a buffer to allow for storage in memory until that information can be processed.

  20. [DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

  1. Modeling LCD Displays with Local Backlight Dimming for Image Quality Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korhonen, Jari; Burini, Nino; Forchhammer, Søren

    2011-01-01

    for evaluating the signal quality distortion related directly to digital signal processing, such as compression. However, the physical characteristics of the display device also pose a significant impact on the overall perception. In order to facilitate image quality assessment on modern liquid crystaldisplays...... (LCD) using light emitting diode (LED) backlight with local dimming, we present the essential considerations and guidelines for modeling the characteristics of displays with high dynamic range (HDR) and locally adjustable backlight segments. The representation of the image generated by the model can...... be assessed using the traditional objective metrics, and therefore the proposed approach is useful for assessing the performance of different backlight dimming algorithms in terms of resulting quality and power consumption in a simulated environment. We have implemented the proposed model in C++ and compared...

  2. A practical, systematic and structured approach to piping vibration assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sukaih, Naren

    2002-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to present a systematic and structured approach to piping vibration assessment and control. Piping vibration assessment is a complex subject, since there are no general analytical methods for dealing with vibration problems. It was noted that most existing vibrating piping systems had poor or degraded support arrangements. This approach therefore focuses mainly on vibration control through assessing and improving the supporting systems. Vibration theory has not been covered in any detail. A simplified procedure is presented for the Integrity custodian to determine when a simple assessment may be carried out and when specialist/consultant services are required. The assessment techniques are based on simplifying assumptions, good rules of thumb and available literature and current practices. A typical case study is used to illustrate the use and the flexibility of the above approach. A standard sheet is proposed to record and document the assessment and recommendations

  3. Regional water resources assessments using an uncertain modelling approach: The example of Swaziland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ndzabandzaba

    2017-04-01

    New hydrological insights for this region: The analysis of hydrological indices highlights the regional variations in hydrological processes and sub-basin response. The adopted modelling approach provides further insight into all of the uncertainties associated with quantifying the available water resources of Swaziland. The study has provided more insight into the spatial variability of the hydrological response and existing development impacts than was previously available. These new insights should provide an improved basis for future water management in Swaziland.

  4. Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2018-01-01

    represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state......In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature...... dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework...

  5. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  6. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  7. HOLISTIC APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE PRESENCE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    As an integral part of our continuing research in environmental quality assessment approaches, we have developed a variety of passive integrative sampling devices widely applicable for use in defining the presence and potential impacts of a broad array of contaminants. The semipermeable membrane device (SPMD) has gained widespread use for sampling hydrophobic chemicals from water and air, the polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) is applicable for sequestering waterborne hydrophilic organic chemicals, the stabilized liquid membrane device (SLMD) is used to integratively sample waterborne ionic metals, and the passive integrative mercury sampler (PIMS) is applicable for sampling vapor phase or dissolved neutral mercury species. This suite of integrative samplers forms the basis for a new passive sampling approach for assessing the presence and potential toxicological significance of a broad spectrum of environmental contaminants. In a proof-of-concept study, three of our four passive integrative samplers were used to assess the presence o,f a wide variety of contaminants in , the waters of a constructed wetland, and to determine the effectiveness of the constructed wetland in removing contaminants. The wetland is used for fmal polishing of secondary- treatment municipal wastewater and the effluent is used as a source of water for a state wildlife area. Numerous contaminants, including organochlorine pesticides (OCs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

  8. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  9. Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

    2005-12-01

    We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

  10. Ensemble atmospheric dispersion modeling for emergency response consequence assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Addis, R.P.; Buckley, R.L.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models themselves, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, all may result in differences in the simulated plumes. This talk will address the U.S. participation in the European ENSEMBLE project, and present a perspective an how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave. Meteorological forecasts generated by numerical models from national and multinational meteorological agencies provide individual realizations of three-dimensional, time dependent atmospheric wind fields. These wind fields may be used to drive atmospheric dispersion (transport and diffusion) models, or they may be used to initiate other, finer resolution meteorological models, which in turn drive dispersion models. Many modeling agencies now utilize ensemble-modeling techniques to determine how sensitive the prognostic fields are to minor perturbations in the model parameters. However, the European Union programs RTMOD and ENSEMBLE are the first projects to utilize a WEB based ensemble approach to interpret the output from atmospheric dispersion models. The ensembles produced are different from those generated by meteorological forecasting centers in that they are ensembles of dispersion model outputs from many different atmospheric transport and diffusion models utilizing prognostic atmospheric fields from several different forecast centers. As such, they enable a decision-maker to consider the uncertainty in the plume transport and growth as a result of the differences in the forecast wind fields as well as the differences in the

  11. Generic Screening Models for Assessing Exposures to the Public and ICRP Reference Animals and Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yankovich, Tamara L.; Proehl, Gerhard; Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Berkovskyy, Volodymyr [Ukrainian Radiation Protection Institute (RPI), 53, Melnikova Street, 04050, Kiev (Ukraine)

    2014-07-01

    With the update of the IAEA Fundamental Safety Principles (SF-1) stating the objective to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation, it has been necessary to update International Basic Safety Standards (BSS) on Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation Sources and the underlying safety guides and technical documents to provide guidance on how this could be achieved in practice. The current paper provides an update on the status and plans to revise the IAEA Safety Report 'Generic Models for Use in Assessing the Impact of Discharges of Radioactive Substances to the Environment' (SRS 19) that was published in 2001. The models of SRS 19 (2001), which was focused on assessment of exposures to the public, is being expanded into three volumes that provide methodologies for screening assessments for the public, as well as for flora and fauna. The revised SRS 19 guide will ultimately facilitate the application of screening models for different levels of assessment using updated parameter values from database that have been developed as part of the IAEA's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) and EMRAS II international model validation programmes. The scope of the revised SRS 19 covers prospective screening assessment of doses to the representative person and Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs), and will provide simple and robust assessment methods for radiological assessment related to planning and design, applying a graded approach. Tabulated screening coefficients and environmental dilution factors will be included for 825 radionuclides. The screening coefficients are developed assuming equilibrium conditions; they can be used to assess radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides to terrestrial and aquatic receptors for planned exposure situations. Volumes 1 and 2 of the revised SRS 19 are at an advanced stage of completion and are focused on 'Screening Assessment of Public

  12. Modeling approaches for concrete barriers used in low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, R.R.; Walton, J.C.

    1993-11-01

    A series of three NUREGs and several papers addressing different aspects of modeling performance of concrete barriers for low-level radioactive waste disposal have been prepared previously for the Concrete Barriers Research Project. This document integrates the information from the previous documents into a general summary of models and approaches that can be used in performance assessments of concrete barriers. Models for concrete degradation, flow, and transport through cracked concrete barriers are discussed. The models for flow and transport assume that cracks have occurred and thus should only be used for later times in simulations after fully penetrating cracks are formed. Most of the models have been implemented in a computer code. CEMENT, that was developed concurrently with this document. User documentation for CEMENT is provided separate from this report. To avoid duplication, the reader is referred to the three previous NUREGs for detailed discussions of each of the mathematical models. Some additional information that was not presented in the previous documents is also included. Sections discussing lessons learned from applications to actual performance assessments of low-level waste disposal facilities are provided. Sensitive design parameters are emphasized to identify critical areas of performance for concrete barriers, and potential problems in performance assessments are also identified and discussed

  13. A probabilistic approach to Radiological Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, Rodolfo; Larsson, Carl-Magnus

    2001-01-01

    Since a radiological environmental impact assessment typically relies on limited data and poorly based extrapolation methods, point estimations, as implied by a deterministic approach, do not suffice. To be of practical use for risk management, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty margins of the estimates as well. In this paper we discuss how to work out a probabilistic approach for dealing with uncertainties in assessments of the radiological risks to non-human biota of a radioactive contamination. Possible strategies for deriving the relevant probability distribution functions from available empirical data and theoretical knowledge are outlined

  14. Wave Resource Characterization Using an Unstructured Grid Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Cheng Wu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a modeling study conducted on the central Oregon coast for wave resource characterization, using the unstructured grid Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN model coupled with a nested grid WAVEWATCH III® (WWIII model. The flexibility of models with various spatial resolutions and the effects of open boundary conditions simulated by a nested grid WWIII model with different physics packages were evaluated. The model results demonstrate the advantage of the unstructured grid-modeling approach for flexible model resolution and good model skills in simulating the six wave resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission in comparison to the observed data in Year 2009 at National Data Buoy Center Buoy 46050. Notably, spectral analysis indicates that the ST4 physics package improves upon the ST2 physics package’s ability to predict wave power density for large waves, which is important for wave resource assessment, load calculation of devices, and risk management. In addition, bivariate distributions show that the simulated sea state of maximum occurrence with the ST4 physics package matched the observed data better than with the ST2 physics package. This study demonstrated that the unstructured grid wave modeling approach, driven by regional nested grid WWIII outputs along with the ST4 physics package, can efficiently provide accurate wave hindcasts to support wave resource characterization. Our study also suggests that wind effects need to be considered if the dimension of the model domain is greater than approximately 100 km, or O (102 km.

  15. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  16. Towards e-Government project assessment: European approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Mates

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to analyse current approaches to the assessment of e-Government projects as the specifi c public projects and to suggest how to improve these approaches in order to eliminate their shortcomings. The nonnormative theoretical methods are used to analyse empirical results of previous researches; particularly the deduction method is used to prove that current approaches to the evaluation of e-Government projects have some inequalities, the analogy and comparison methods are used to create general typology of e-Government projects and the induction method is used to seek examples of the indicators and metrics. The results are based on analysis of extensive amount of e-Government projects, which have been realized in different European countries in the past twenty years. The basic result of the research is creation of the ten most common types of e-Government projects typology. The fundamental conclusion obtained from the results of this research is that this typology can be used as the core of new E-Government General Assessment Framework, which eliminates problems of previous approaches, allows adjusting metrics and indicators to each type of projects, keeps comparability of results and thus making possible the use of benchmarking methods.

  17. High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

    2015-02-17

    Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

  18. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  19. Modeling fabrication of nuclear components: An integrative approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hench, K.W.

    1996-08-01

    Reduction of the nuclear weapons stockpile and the general downsizing of the nuclear weapons complex has presented challenges for Los Alamos. One is to design an optimized fabrication facility to manufacture nuclear weapon primary components in an environment of intense regulation and shrinking budgets. This dissertation presents an integrative two-stage approach to modeling the casting operation for fabrication of nuclear weapon primary components. The first stage optimizes personnel radiation exposure for the casting operation layout by modeling the operation as a facility layout problem formulated as a quadratic assignment problem. The solution procedure uses an evolutionary heuristic technique. The best solutions to the layout problem are used as input to the second stage - a simulation model that assesses the impact of competing layouts on operational performance. The focus of the simulation model is to determine the layout that minimizes personnel radiation exposures and nuclear material movement, and maximizes the utilization of capacity for finished units.

  20. An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

  1. Methodological approaches to the assessment level of social responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Vorona, E.

    2010-01-01

    A study of current approaches to assessing the level of social responsibility. Proposed methodological approach to evaluating the performance of the social responsibility of railway transport. Conceptual Basis of social reporting in rail transport.

  2. A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herger, N.; Abramowitz, G.; Angelil, O. M.; Knutti, R.; Sanderson, B.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensembles are an indispensable tool for future climate projection and its uncertainty quantification. Ensembles containing multiple climate models generally have increased skill, consistency and reliability. Due to the lack of agreed-on alternatives, most scientists use the equally-weighted multi-model mean as they subscribe to model democracy ("one model, one vote").Different research groups are known to share sections of code, parameterizations in their model, literature, or even whole model components. Therefore, individual model runs do not represent truly independent estimates. Ignoring this dependence structure might lead to a false model consensus, wrong estimation of uncertainty and effective number of independent models.Here, we present a way to partially address this problem by selecting a subset of CMIP5 model runs so that its climatological mean minimizes the RMSE compared to a given observation product. Due to the cancelling out of errors, regional biases in the ensemble mean are reduced significantly.Using a model-as-truth experiment we demonstrate that those regional biases persist into the future and we are not fitting noise, thus providing improved observationally-constrained projections of the 21st century. The optimally selected ensemble shows significantly higher global mean surface temperature projections than the original ensemble, where all the model runs are considered. Moreover, the spread is decreased well beyond that expected from the decreased ensemble size.Several previous studies have recommended an ensemble selection approach based on performance ranking of the model runs. Here, we show that this approach can perform even worse than randomly selecting ensemble members and can thus be harmful. We suggest that accounting for interdependence in the ensemble selection process is a necessary step for robust projections for use in impact assessments, adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

  3. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Sexually intrusive behaviour following brain injury: approaches to assessment and rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezeau, Scott C; Bogod, Nicholas M; Mateer, Catherine A

    2004-03-01

    Sexually intrusive behaviour, which may range from inappropriate commentary to rape, is often observed following a traumatic brain injury. It may represent novel behaviour patterns or an exacerbation of pre-injury personality traits, attitudes, and tendencies. Sexually intrusive behaviour poses a risk to staff and residents of residential facilities and to the community at large, and the development of a sound assessment and treatment plan for sexually intrusive behaviour is therefore very important. A comprehensive evaluation is best served by drawing on the fields of neuropsychology, forensic psychology, and cognitive rehabilitation. The paper discusses the types of brain damage that commonly lead to sexually intrusive behaviour, provides guidance for its assessment, and presents a three-stage treatment model. The importance of a multidisciplinary approach to both assessment and treatment is emphasized. Finally, a case example is provided to illustrate the problem and the possibilities for successful management.

  5. Multiscale modelling approaches for assessing cosmetic ingredients safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bois, Frédéric Y; Ochoa, Juan G Diaz; Gajewska, Monika; Kovarich, Simona; Mauch, Klaus; Paini, Alicia; Péry, Alexandre; Benito, Jose Vicente Sala; Teng, Sophie; Worth, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The European Union's ban on animal testing for cosmetic ingredients and products has generated a strong momentum for the development of in silico and in vitro alternative methods. One of the focus of the COSMOS project was ab initio prediction of kinetics and toxic effects through multiscale pharmacokinetic modeling and in vitro data integration. In our experience, mathematical or computer modeling and in vitro experiments are complementary. We present here a summary of the main models and results obtained within the framework of the project on these topics. A first section presents our work at the organelle and cellular level. We then go toward modeling cell levels effects (monitored continuously), multiscale physiologically based pharmacokinetic and effect models, and route to route extrapolation. We follow with a short presentation of the automated KNIME workflows developed for dissemination and easy use of the models. We end with a discussion of two challenges to the field: our limited ability to deal with massive data and complex computations. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2008-01-01

    The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation...... resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting...... in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework...

  7. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  8. A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using system dynamics model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Jae Kook; Ahn, Nam Sung [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2004-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of the organizational and human factors in a nuclear power plant which contribute to nuclear safety. Previous studies can be classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach using tools such as ergonomics and Probability Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is the socio-psychology approach. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and to present guidelines to lessen human error in plants. However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions among the factors or variables in nuclear power plants. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show cause and effect relationships among factors and quantify the organizational and human factors, has been developed. Handling variables such as the degree of leadership, the number of employees, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plant organization. Through simulation, users can get insights to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in both organizational and human factors.

  9. A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jae Kook; Ahn, Nam Sung; Jae, Moo Sung

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of the organizational and human factors in a nuclear power plant which contribute to nuclear safety. Previous studies can be classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach using tools such as ergonomics and Probability Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is the socio-psychology approach. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and to present guidelines to lessen human error in plants. However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions among the factors or variables in nuclear power plants. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show cause and effect relationships among factors and quantify the organizational and human factors, has been developed. Handling variables such as the degree of leadership, the number of employees, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plant organization. Through simulation, users can get insights to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in both organizational and human factors

  10. Blended Risk Approach in Applying PSA Models to Risk-Based Regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimitrijevic, V. B.; Chapman, J. R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the authors will discuss a modern approach in applying PSA models in risk-based regulation. The Blended Risk Approach is a combination of traditional and probabilistic processes. It is receiving increased attention in different industries in the U. S. and abroad. The use of the deterministic regulations and standards provides a proven and well understood basis on which to assess and communicate the impact of change to plant design and operation. Incorporation of traditional values into risk evaluation is working very well in the blended approach. This approach is very application specific. It includes multiple risk attributes, qualitative risk analysis, and basic deterministic principles. In blending deterministic and probabilistic principles, this approach ensures that the objectives of the traditional defense-in-depth concept are not compromised and the design basis of the plant is explicitly considered. (author)

  11. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-01

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: ► A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. ► An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. ► An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. ► The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  12. Systematic Assessment Through Mathematical Model For Sustainability Reporting In Malaysia Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanang, Wan Nurul Syahirah Wan; Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina

    2017-08-01

    Sustainability assessment have been studied and increasingly recognized as a powerful and valuable tool to measure the performance of sustainability in a company or industry. Nowadays, there are many existing tools that the users can use for sustainable development. There are various initiatives exists on tools for sustainable development, though most of the tools focused on environmental, economy and social aspects. Using the Green Project Management (GPM) P5 concept that suggests the firms not only needs to engage in mainly 3Ps principle: planet, profit, people responsible behaviours, but also, product and process need to be included in the practices, this study will introduce a new mathematical model for assessing the level of sustainability practice in the company. Based on multiple case studies, involving in-depth interviews with senior directors, feedback from experts, and previous engineering report, a systematic approach is done with the aims to obtain the respective data from the feedbacks and to be developed into a new mathematical model. By reviewing on the methodology of this research it comprises of several phases where it starts with the analyzation of the parameters and criteria selection according to the Malaysian context of industry. Moving on to the next step is data analysis involving regression and finally the normalisation process will be done to determine the result of this research either succeeded or not. Lastly, this study is expected to provide a clear guideline to any company or organization to assimilate the sustainability assessment in their development stage. In future, the better understanding towards the sustainability assessment is attained to be aligned unitedly in order to integrated the process approach into the systematic approach for the sustainability assessment.

  13. Incorporation of the equilibrium temperature approach in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydroclimatological stream temperature model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xinzhong; Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Ficklin, Darren L.; Wang, Junye

    2018-04-01

    Stream temperature is an important indicator for biodiversity and sustainability in aquatic ecosystems. The stream temperature model currently in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) only considers the impact of air temperature on stream temperature, while the hydroclimatological stream temperature model developed within the SWAT model considers hydrology and the impact of air temperature in simulating the water-air heat transfer process. In this study, we modified the hydroclimatological model by including the equilibrium temperature approach to model heat transfer processes at the water-air interface, which reflects the influences of air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and streamflow conditions on the heat transfer process. The thermal capacity of the streamflow is modeled by the variation of the stream water depth. An advantage of this equilibrium temperature model is the simple parameterization, with only two parameters added to model the heat transfer processes. The equilibrium temperature model proposed in this study is applied and tested in the Athabasca River basin (ARB) in Alberta, Canada. The model is calibrated and validated at five stations throughout different parts of the ARB, where close to monthly samplings of stream temperatures are available. The results indicate that the equilibrium temperature model proposed in this study provided better and more consistent performances for the different regions of the ARB with the values of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) greater than those of the original SWAT model and the hydroclimatological model. To test the model performance for different hydrological and environmental conditions, the equilibrium temperature model was also applied to the North Fork Tolt River Watershed in Washington, United States. The results indicate a reasonable simulation of stream temperature using the model proposed in this study, with minimum relative error values compared to the other two models

  14. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  15. Benchmarking of computer codes and approaches for modeling exposure scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, R.R.; Rittmann, P.D.; Wood, M.I.; Cook, J.R.

    1994-08-01

    The US Department of Energy Headquarters established a performance assessment task team (PATT) to integrate the activities of DOE sites that are preparing performance assessments for the disposal of newly generated low-level waste. The PATT chartered a subteam with the task of comparing computer codes and exposure scenarios used for dose calculations in performance assessments. This report documents the efforts of the subteam. Computer codes considered in the comparison include GENII, PATHRAE-EPA, MICROSHIELD, and ISOSHLD. Calculations were also conducted using spreadsheets to provide a comparison at the most fundamental level. Calculations and modeling approaches are compared for unit radionuclide concentrations in water and soil for the ingestion, inhalation, and external dose pathways. Over 30 tables comparing inputs and results are provided

  16. Higher Education End-of-Course Evaluations: Assessing the Psychometric Properties Utilizing Exploratory Factor Analysis and Rasch Modeling Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly D. Bradley

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper offers a critical assessment of the psychometric properties of a standard higher education end-of-course evaluation. Using both exploratory factor analysis (EFA and Rasch modeling, the authors investigate the (a an overall assessment of dimensionality using EFA, (b a secondary assessment of dimensionality using a principal components analysis (PCA of the residuals when the items are fit to the Rasch model, and (c an assessment of item-level properties using item-level statistics provided when the items are fit to the Rasch model. The results support the usage of the scale as a supplement to high-stakes decision making such as tenure. However, the lack of precise targeting of item difficulty to person ability combined with the low person separation index renders rank-ordering professors according to minuscule differences in overall subscale scores a highly questionable practice.

  17. Workplace-based assessment and students' approaches to learning: a qualitative inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Kadri, Hanan M; Al-Kadi, Mohammed T; Van Der Vleuten, Cees P M

    2013-01-01

    We have performed this research to assess the effect of work-place based assessment (WBA) practice on medical students' learning approaches. The research was conducted at the King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, College of Medicine from 1 March to 31 July 2012. We conducted a qualitative, phenomenological research utilizing semi-structured individual interviews with medical students exposed to WBA. The audio-taped interviews were transcribed verbatim, analyzed, and themes were identified. We preformed investigators' triangulation, member checking with clinical supervisors and we triangulated the data with a similar research performed prior to the implementation of WBA. WBA results in variable learning approaches. Based on several affecting factors; clinical supervisors, faculty-given feedback, and assessment function, students may swing between surface, deep and effort and achievement learning approaches. Students' and supervisors' orientations on the process of WBA, utilization of peer feedback and formative rather than summative assessment facilitate successful implementation of WBA and lead to students' deeper approaches to learning. Interestingly, students and their supervisors have contradicting perceptions to WBA. A change in culture to unify students' and supervisors' perceptions of WBA, more accommodation of formative assessment, and feedback may result in students' deeper approach to learning.

  18. COMPETENCE-BASED APPROACH TO MODELLING STRUCTURES OF THE MAIN EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Gerasimova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available By the analysis results of scientific works in the field of competence-based approach in education authors proved need of computer support of the planning and development stage of the main educational program, they developed the main educational program structure automatic formation model on the graphs basis, offered the integrated criterion of an discipline assessment and developed a strategic map of a discipline complex assessment. The executed theoretical researches are a basis for creation of the main educational program planning and development support automated system.

  19. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. GEMA3D - landscape modelling for dose assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard

    2010-08-01

    Concerns have been raised about SKB's interpretation of landscape objects in their radiological assessment models, specifically in relation to the size of the objects represented - leading to excessive volumetric dilution - and to the interpretation of local hydrology - leading to non-conservative hydrologic dilution. Developed from the Generic Ecosystem Modelling Approach, GEMA3D is an attempt to address these issues in a simple radiological assessment landscape model. In GEMA3D landscape features are model led as landscape elements (lels) based on a three compartment structure which is able to represent both terrestrial and aquatic lels. The area of the lels can be chosen to coincide with the bedrock fracture from which radionuclides are assumed to be released and the dispersion of radionuclides through out the landscape can be traced. Result indicate that released contaminants remain localised close to the release location and follow the main flow axis of the surface drainage system. This is true even for relatively weakly sorbing species. An interpretation of the size of landscape elements suitable to represent dilution in the biosphere for radiological assessment purposes is suggested, though the concept remains flexible. For reference purposes an agricultural area of one hectare is the baseline. The Quaternary deposits (QD) at the Forsmark site are only a few metres thick above the crystalline bedrock in which the planned repository for spent fuel will be constructed. The biosphere model is assumed to be the upper one metre of the QD. A further model has been implemented for advective - dispersive transport in the deeper QD. The effects of chemical zonation have been briefly investigated. The results confirm the importance of retention close to the release point from the bedrock and clearly indicate that there is a need for a better description of the hydrology of the QD on the spatial scales relevant to the lels required for radiological assessments

  1. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T.; Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL -1 ]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT -1 ]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and statistical

  3. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T. [Golder Associates Inc., Seattle (United States); Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan [Golder Grundteknik KB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL{sup -1}]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT{sup -1}]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and

  4. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  5. A dynamic approach for the impact of a toxic gas dispersion hazard considering human behaviour and dispersion modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Maragkos, Georgios; Beji, Tarek; Merci, Bart

    2016-11-15

    The release of toxic gases due to natural/industrial accidents or terrorist attacks in populated areas can have tragic consequences. To prevent and evaluate the effects of these disasters different approaches and modelling tools have been introduced in the literature. These instruments are valuable tools for risk managers doing risk assessment of threatened areas. Despite the significant improvements in hazard assessment in case of toxic gas dispersion, these analyses do not generally include the impact of human behaviour and people movement during emergencies. This work aims at providing an approach which considers both modelling of gas dispersion and evacuation movement in order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment for disasters involving toxic gases. The approach is applied to a hypothetical scenario including a ship releasing Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on a crowd attending a music festival. The difference between the results obtained with existing static methods (people do not move) and a dynamic approach (people move away from the danger) which considers people movement with different degrees of sophistication (either a simple linear path or more complex behavioural modelling) is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A consistent approach to assess safety criteria for reactivity initiated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartoris, C.; Taisne, A.; Petit, M.; Barre, F.; Marchand, O.

    2010-01-01

    In the context of more and more demanding reactor managements, the fuel assembly discharge burn-up increases and raises the question of the current safety criteria relevance. In order to assess new safety criteria for reactivity initiated accidents, the IRSN is developing a consistent and original approach to assess safety. This approach is based on: -A thorough understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in each phase (PCMI and post-boiling phases) of the RIA, supported by the interpretation of the experimental database. This experimental data is constituted of global test outcomes, such as CABRI or Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) experiments, and analytical program outcomes, such as PATRICIA tests, intending to understand some particular physical phenomena; -The development of computing codes, modelling the physical phenomena. The physical phenomena observed during the tests mentioned above were modelled in the SCANAIR code. SCANAIR is a thermal-mechanical code calculating fuel and clad temperatures and strains during RIA. The CLARIS module is used as a post-calculation tool to evaluate the clad failure risk based on critical flaw depth. These computing codes were validated by global and analytical tests results; -The development of a methodology. The first step of this methodology is the identification of all the parameters affecting the hydride rim depth. Besides, an envelope curve resulting from burst tests giving the hydride rim depth versus oxidation thickness is defined. After that, the critical flaw depth for a given energy pulse is calculated then compared to the hydride rim depth. This methodology results in an energy or enthalpy limit versus burn-up. This approach is planned to be followed for each phase of the RIA. An example of application is presented to evaluate a PCMI limit for a zircaloy-4 cladding UO 2 rod at Hot Zero Power.

  7. Signal-transfer Modeling for Regional Assessment of Forest Responses to Environmental Changes in the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert J. Luxmoore; William W. Hargrove; M. Lynn Tharp; Wilfred M. Post; Michael W. Berry; Karen S. Minser; Wendell P. Cropper; Dale W. Johnson; Boris Zeide; Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson

    2000-01-01

    Stochastic transfer of information in a hierarchy of simulators is offered as a conceptual approach for assessing forest responses to changing climate and air quality across 13 southeastern states of the USA. This assessment approach combines geographic information system and Monte Carlo capabilities with several scales of computer modeling for southern pine species...

  8. Practical modeling approaches for geological storage of carbon dioxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celia, Michael A; Nordbotten, Jan M

    2009-01-01

    The relentless increase of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and the associated concerns about climate change have motivated new ideas about carbon-constrained energy production. One technological approach to control carbon dioxide emissions is carbon capture and storage, or CCS. The underlying idea of CCS is to capture the carbon before it emitted to the atmosphere and store it somewhere other than the atmosphere. Currently, the most attractive option for large-scale storage is in deep geological formations, including deep saline aquifers. Many physical and chemical processes can affect the fate of the injected CO2, with the overall mathematical description of the complete system becoming very complex. Our approach to the problem has been to reduce complexity as much as possible, so that we can focus on the few truly important questions about the injected CO2, most of which involve leakage out of the injection formation. Toward this end, we have established a set of simplifying assumptions that allow us to derive simplified models, which can be solved numerically or, for the most simplified cases, analytically. These simplified models allow calculation of solutions to large-scale injection and leakage problems in ways that traditional multicomponent multiphase simulators cannot. Such simplified models provide important tools for system analysis, screening calculations, and overall risk-assessment calculations. We believe this is a practical and important approach to model geological storage of carbon dioxide. It also serves as an example of how complex systems can be simplified while retaining the essential physics of the problem.

  9. A simple integrated assessment approach to global change simulation and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Keroboto; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We formulate and study the Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model, which constitutes the basis of our idealized integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via a control of the greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to make hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement, in particular by investing in low carbon technology, in deforestation reduction or in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CoCEB model is very flexible and transparent, and it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way.

  10. A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

    2013-01-01

    Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...

  11. Life cycle impact assessment modeling for particulate matter: A new approach based on physico-chemical particle properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notter, Dominic A

    2015-09-01

    Particulate matter (PM) causes severe damage to human health globally. Airborne PM is a mixture of solid and liquid droplets suspended in air. It consists of organic and inorganic components, and the particles of concern range in size from a few nanometers to approximately 10μm. The complexity of PM is considered to be the reason for the poor understanding of PM and may also be the reason why PM in environmental impact assessment is poorly defined. Currently, life cycle impact assessment is unable to differentiate highly toxic soot particles from relatively harmless sea salt. The aim of this article is to present a new impact assessment for PM where the impact of PM is modeled based on particle physico-chemical properties. With the new method, 2781 characterization factors that account for particle mass, particle number concentration, particle size, chemical composition and solubility were calculated. Because particle sizes vary over four orders of magnitudes, a sound assessment of PM requires that the exposure model includes deposition of particles in the lungs and that the fate model includes coagulation as a removal mechanism for ultrafine particles. The effects model combines effects from particle size, solubility and chemical composition. The first results from case studies suggest that PM that stems from emissions generally assumed to be highly toxic (e.g. biomass combustion and fossil fuel combustion) might lead to results that are similar compared with an assessment of PM using established methods. However, if harmless PM emissions are emitted, established methods enormously overestimate the damage. The new impact assessment allows a high resolution of the damage allocatable to different size fractions or chemical components. This feature supports a more efficient optimization of processes and products when combating air pollution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

    2017-10-01

    Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

  13. Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

    2014-03-29

    We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

  14. Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

  15. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Wan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

    On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  16. A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using a system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, J. K.; Yoon, T. S.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of organizational and human factors in the nuclear power plant safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach such as ergonomics and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is socio-psychology one. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and increased nuclear safety However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions between factors or variables in NPP's. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show causal relations between factors and quantify organizational and human factors, has been developed. Operating variables such as degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plants in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get an insight to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side

  17. Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: inter-comparison of modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, M P; Barnett, C L; Beresford, N A; Brown, J E; Černe, M; Howard, B J; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Smodiš, B; Twining, J R; Vandenhove, H; Vives i Batlle, J; Wood, M D; Yu, C

    2012-06-15

    Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2003-11-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

  19. Community-based approaches to strategic environmental assessment: Lessons from Costa Rica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, A. John; Sims, Laura; Spaling, Harry

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a community-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA) using a case study of the Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad's (ICE) watershed management agricultural program (WMAP) in Costa Rica. The approach focused on four highly interactive workshops that used visioning, brainstorming and critical reflection exercises. Each workshop represented a critical step in the SEA process. Through this approach, communities in two rural watersheds assessed the environmental, social and economic impacts of a proposed second phase for WMAP. Lessons from this community-based approach to strategic environmental assessment include a recognition of participants learning what a participatory SEA is conceptually and methodologically; the role of interactive techniques for identifying positive and negative impacts of the proposed program and generating creative mitigation strategies; the effect of workshops in reducing power differentials among program participants (proponent, communities, government agencies); and, the logistical importance of notice, timing and location for meaningful participation. The community-based approach to SEA offers considerable potential for assessing regional (watershed) development programs focused on sustainable resource-based livelihoods

  20. HEDR modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.

    1992-07-01

    This report details the conceptual approaches to be used in calculating radiation doses to individuals throughout the various periods of operations at the Hanford Site. The report considers the major environmental transport pathways--atmospheric, surface water, and ground water--and projects and appropriate modeling technique for each. The modeling sequence chosen for each pathway depends on the available data on doses, the degree of confidence justified by such existing data, and the level of sophistication deemed appropriate for the particular pathway and time period being considered

  1. A novel approach to multihazard modeling and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Silas W; Portelli, Ian; Narzisi, Giuseppe; Nelson, Lewis S; Menges, Fabian; Rekow, E Dianne; Mincer, Joshua S; Mishra, Bhubaneswar; Goldfrank, Lewis R

    2009-06-01

    To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment. An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims. In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible. An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events.

  2. Advances in environmental radiation protection: re-thinking animal-environment interaction modelling for wildlife dose assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Michael D. [School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, M4 4WT (United Kingdom); Beresford, Nicholas A. [School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, M4 4WT (United Kingdom); Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP (United Kingdom); Bradshaw, Clare [Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm (Sweden); Gashchak, Sergey [Chornobyl Centre for Nuclear Safety, Radioactive Waste and Radioecology, 07100 Slavutych (Ukraine); Hinton, Thomas G. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Centre de Cadarache, 13115 Saint Paul-lez-Durance (France)

    2014-07-01

    Current wildlife dose assessment models adopt simplistic approaches to the representation of animal-environment interaction. The simplest approaches are to assume either that environmental media (e.g. soil, sediment or water) are uniformly contaminated or relating organism exposure to activity concentrations in media collected at the point of sampling of the animal. The external exposure of a reference organism is then estimated by defining the geometric relationship between the organism and the medium. For example, a reference organism within the soil would have a 4p exposure geometry and a reference organism on the soil would have a 2p exposure geometry. At best, the current modelling approaches recognise differences in media activity concentrations by calculating exposure for different areas of contamination and then estimating the fraction of time that an organism spends in each area. In other fields of pollution ecology, for example wildlife risk assessment for chemical pollution, more advanced approaches are being implemented to model animal-environment interaction and estimate exposure. These approaches include individual-based movement modelling and random walk modelling and a variety of software tools have been developed to facilitate the implementation of these models. Although there are more advanced animal-environment interaction modelling approaches that are available, it is questionable whether these should be adopted for use in environmental radiation protection. Would their adoption significantly reduce uncertainty within the assessment process and, if so, by how much? These questions are being addressed within the new TREE (TRansfer - Exposure - Effects) research programme funded by the United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and within Working Group (WG) 8 of the International Atomic Energy Agency's MODARIA programme. MODARIA WG8 is reviewing some of the alternative approaches that have been developed for animal

  3. Clinical Significance: a Therapeutic Approach Topsychological Assessment in Treatment Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afolabi Olusegun Emmanuel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Psychological assessment has long been reported as a key component of clinical psychology. This paper examines the complexities surrounding the clinical significance of therapeutic approach to treatment planning. To achieve this objective, the paper searched and used the PsycINFO and PubMed databases and the reference sections of chapters and journal articles to analysed, 1 a strong basis for the usage of therapeutic approach to psychological assessment in treatment plans, 2 explained the conceptual meaning of clinical significant change in therapeutic assessment, 3 answered some of the questions regarding practicability and the clinical significance of therapeutic approach to treatment plans, particularly during or before treatment, 4 linked therapeutic assessment to change in clients’ clinical impression, functioning and therapeutic needs 5 analysed the empirically documenting clinically significant change in therapeutic assessment. Finally, the study suggested that though therapeutic assessment is not sufficient for the systematic study of psychotherapy outcome and process, it is still consistent with both the layman and professional expectations regarding treatment outcome and also provides a precise method for classifying clients as ‘changed’ or ‘unchanged’ on the basis of clinical significance criteria.

  4. A multi-model ensemble approach to seabed mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diesing, Markus; Stephens, David

    2015-06-01

    Seabed habitat mapping based on swath acoustic data and ground-truth samples is an emergent and active marine science discipline. Significant progress could be achieved by transferring techniques and approaches that have been successfully developed and employed in such fields as terrestrial land cover mapping. One such promising approach is the multiple classifier system, which aims at improving classification performance by combining the outputs of several classifiers. Here we present results of a multi-model ensemble applied to multibeam acoustic data covering more than 5000 km2 of seabed in the North Sea with the aim to derive accurate spatial predictions of seabed substrate. A suite of six machine learning classifiers (k-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Machine, Classification Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network and Naïve Bayes) was trained with ground-truth sample data classified into seabed substrate classes and their prediction accuracy was assessed with an independent set of samples. The three and five best performing models were combined to classifier ensembles. Both ensembles led to increased prediction accuracy as compared to the best performing single classifier. The improvements were however not statistically significant at the 5% level. Although the three-model ensemble did not perform significantly better than its individual component models, we noticed that the five-model ensemble did perform significantly better than three of the five component models. A classifier ensemble might therefore be an effective strategy to improve classification performance. Another advantage is the fact that the agreement in predicted substrate class between the individual models of the ensemble could be used as a measure of confidence. We propose a simple and spatially explicit measure of confidence that is based on model agreement and prediction accuracy.

  5. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation: 1994 revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.

    1994-08-01

    This report provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The tiered approach to ecological risk assessment has been implemented, generic conceptual models have been developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints has been agreed upon. The document also includes changes in terminology to agree with the terminology in the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) framework for ecological risk assessment. Although ecological risks are equal in regulatory importance to human health risks, formal procedures for ecological risk assessment are poorly developed. This report will provide specific guidance and promote the use of consistent approaches for ecological risk assessments at individual sites on the ORR. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance and with relevant EPA guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it should be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources

  6. The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Voet, Hilko; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Goedhart, Paul W; van der Heijden, Gerie W A M; Kennedy, Marc C; Boon, Polly E; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection - Part 1: The participatory modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheer, Dirk; Konrad, Wilfried; Class, Holger; Kissinger, Alexander; Knopf, Stefan; Noack, Vera

    2017-06-01

    Saltwater intrusion into potential drinking water aquifers due to the injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers is one of the potential hazards associated with the geological storage of CO2. Thus, in a site selection process, models for predicting the fate of the displaced brine are required, for example, for a risk assessment or the optimization of pressure management concepts. From the very beginning, this research on brine migration aimed at involving expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessment in simulating the impacts of injecting CO2 into deep saline aquifers by means of a participatory modeling process. The involvement exercise made use of two approaches. First, guideline-based interviews were carried out, aiming at eliciting expert and stakeholder knowledge and assessments of geological structures and mechanisms affecting CO2-induced brine migration. Second, a stakeholder workshop including the World Café format yielded evaluations and judgments of the numerical modeling approach, scenario selection, and preliminary simulation results. The participatory modeling approach gained several results covering brine migration in general, the geological model sketch, scenario development, and the review of the preliminary simulation results. These results were included in revised versions of both the geological model and the numerical model, helping to improve the analysis of regional-scale brine migration along vertical pathways due to CO2 injection.

  8. Modeling of Communication in a Computational Situation Assessment Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyun Chul; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2009-01-01

    Operators in nuclear power plants have to acquire information from human system interfaces (HSIs) and the environment in order to create, update, and confirm their understanding of a plant state, or situation awareness, because failures of situation assessment may result in wrong decisions for process control and finally errors of commission in nuclear power plants. Quantitative or prescriptive models to predict operator's situation assessment in a situation, the results of situation assessment, provide many benefits such as HSI design solutions, human performance data, and human reliability. Unfortunately, a few computational situation assessment models for NPP operators have been proposed and those insufficiently embed human cognitive characteristics. Thus we proposed a new computational situation assessment model of nuclear power plant operators. The proposed model incorporating significant cognitive factors uses a Bayesian belief network (BBN) as model architecture. It is believed that communication between nuclear power plant operators affects operators' situation assessment and its result, situation awareness. We tried to verify that the proposed model represent the effects of communication on situation assessment. As the result, the proposed model succeeded in representing the operators' behavior and this paper shows the details

  9. Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

    2013-08-01

    Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

  10. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  11. A Chemical Activity Approach to Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gobas, Frank A. P. C.; Mayer, Philipp; Parkerton, Thomas F.

    2018-01-01

    activity approach, its strengths and limitations, and provides examples of how this concept may be applied to the management of single chemicals and chemical mixtures. The examples demonstrate that the chemical activity approach provides a useful framework for 1) compiling and evaluating exposure......To support the goals articulated in the vision for exposure and risk assessment in the twenty-first century, we highlight the application of a thermodynamic chemical activity approach for the exposure and risk assessment of chemicals in the environment. The present article describes the chemical...... assessment. The article further illustrates that the chemical activity approach can support an adaptive management strategy for environmental stewardship of chemicals where “safe” chemical activities are established based on toxicological studies and presented as guidelines for environmental quality...

  12. A Person-Centered Approach to Financial Capacity Assessment: Preliminary Development of a New Rating Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Stoltman, Jonathan; Ficker, Lisa J; Iris, Madelyn; Mast, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Financial exploitation and financial capacity issues often overlap when a gerontologist assesses whether an older adult's financial decision is an autonomous, capable choice. Our goal is to describe a new conceptual model for assessing financial decisions using principles of person-centered approaches and to introduce a new instrument, the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS). We created a conceptual model, convened meetings of experts from various disciplines to critique the model and provide input on content and structure, and select final items. We then videotaped administration of the LFDRS to five older adults and had 10 experts provide independent ratings. The LFDRS demonstrated good to excellent inter-rater agreement. The LFDRS is a new tool that allows gerontologists to systematically gather information about a specific financial decision and the decisional abilities in question.

  13. Developments in the modelling approach for radiological safety assessment of "2"3"8U-series radionuclides in waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez-Sanchez, D.; Thorne, M.

    2014-01-01

    Human and environmental radiation exposures from sites or areas contaminated with radioactive substances need to be quantified as part of the risk assessment process and for developing long-term remediation strategies. In most radiological assessment models, simplistic, empirical ratios are used to simulate contaminant transfers between environmental compartments. These are favoured because they facilitate modelling. Their use, however, significantly increases the uncertainty of model predictions, because they do not account for the underlying processes that govern spatial and temporal variations in radionuclide concentrations. In relation to more explicit, process-based modelling, representation of the migration of radionuclides in the "2"3"8U decay series in soils and their uptake by plants is of interest in various contexts, including the disposal of radioactive wastes and the remediation of former sites of uranium mining and milling. The structures of models used to assess doses in the biosphere for long-term waste disposal assessments have not changed significantly in the last few years. Several aspects of the model representations of the biosphere are currently being debated in international forums, and these aspects would benefit from further investigation. The potential topics of interest include biogeochemical zonation of radionuclides in the sub-surface, caused by changes in the redox characteristics in response to a variable water table. It has been proposed that traditional model structures are not able to represent this aspect of the system adequately. Major improvements are needed to make models more process-based and capable of simulating the kinetics of contaminant transfers. A major challenge is to identify where the greatest advantages can be gained in reducing model uncertainty and understanding variability, developing criteria to identify if further research is required for parameterizing dynamic-mechanistic models, and identifying the level of

  14. Application of various FLD modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banabic, D.; Aretz, H.; Paraianu, L.; Jurco, P.

    2005-07-01

    This paper focuses on a comparison between different modelling approaches to predict the forming limit diagram (FLD) for sheet metal forming under a linear strain path using the recently introduced orthotropic yield criterion BBC2003 (Banabic D et al 2005 Int. J. Plasticity 21 493-512). The FLD models considered here are a finite element based approach, the well known Marciniak-Kuczynski model, the modified maximum force criterion according to Hora et al (1996 Proc. Numisheet'96 Conf. (Dearborn/Michigan) pp 252-6), Swift's diffuse (Swift H W 1952 J. Mech. Phys. Solids 1 1-18) and Hill's classical localized necking approach (Hill R 1952 J. Mech. Phys. Solids 1 19-30). The FLD of an AA5182-O aluminium sheet alloy has been determined experimentally in order to quantify the predictive capabilities of the models mentioned above.

  15. A Unified Approach to Modeling and Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ole Lehrmann; Møller-Pedersen, Birger

    2010-01-01

    of this paper is to go back to the future and get inspiration from SIMULA and propose a unied approach. In addition to reintroducing the contributions of SIMULA and the Scandinavian approach to object-oriented programming, we do this by discussing a number of issues in modeling and programming and argue3 why we......SIMULA was a language for modeling and programming and provided a unied approach to modeling and programming in contrast to methodologies based on structured analysis and design. The current development seems to be going in the direction of separation of modeling and programming. The goal...

  16. Department of Energy's process waste assessment graded approach methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pemberton, S.E.

    1994-03-01

    As the initial phase of the formal waste minimization program, the Department of Energy requires assessments of all its waste-generating operations. These assessments, called process waste assessments (PWAs), are a tool which helps achieve the pollution prevention goals. The DOE complex is comprised of numerous sites located in many different states. The facilities as a whole represent a tremendous diversity of technologies, processes, and activities. Due to this diversity, there are also a wide variety and number of waste streams generated. Many of these waste streams are small, intermittent, and not of consistent composition. The PWA graded approach methodology addresses these complexities and recognizes that processes vary in the quantity of pollution they generate, as well as in the perceived risk and associated hazards. Therefore, the graded approach was developed to provide a cost-effective and flexible methodology which allows individual sites to prioritize their local concerns and align their efforts with the resources allocated. This presentation will describe a project sponsored by the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, Waste Minimization Division, which developed a graded approach methodology for use throughout the DOE. This methodology was initiated in FY93 through a combined effort of the following DOE/Defense Program sites: Kansas City Plant, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories. This presentation will describe the process waste assessment tool, benefits achieved through the completion of PWAs, DOE's graded approach methodology, and an update on the project's current status

  17. Indirect human exposure assessment of airborne lead deposited on soil via a simplified fate and speciation modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzol, Massimo; Bulle, Cécile; Thomsen, Marianne

    2012-04-01

    In order to estimate the total exposure to the lead emissions from a municipal waste combustion plant in Denmark, the indirect pathway via ingestion of lead deposited on soil has to be quantified. Multi-media fate models developed for both Risk Assessment (RA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can be used for this purpose, but present high uncertainties in the assessment of metal's fate. More sophisticated and metal-specific geochemical models exist, that could lower the uncertainties by e.g. accounting for metal speciation, but they require a large amount of data and are unpractical to combine broadly with other fate and dispersion models. In this study, a Simplified Fate & Speciation Model (SFSM) is presented, that is based on the parsimony principle: "as simple as possible, as complex as needed", and that can be used for indirect human exposure assessment in different context like RA and regionalized LCA. SFSM couples traditional multi-media mass balances with empirical speciation models in a tool that has a simple theoretical framework and that is not data-intensive. The model calculates total concentration, dissolved concentration, and free ion activity of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in different soil layers, after accounting for metal deposition and dispersion. The model is tested for these five metals by using data from peer reviewed literature. Results show good accordance between measured and calculated values (factor of 3). The model is used to predict the human exposure via soil to lead initially emitted into air by the waste combustion plant and both the lead cumulative exposure and intake fraction are calculated. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A Network-Based Approach to Modeling and Predicting Product Coconsideration Relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenghui Sha

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding customer preferences in consideration decisions is critical to choice modeling in engineering design. While existing literature has shown that the exogenous effects (e.g., product and customer attributes are deciding factors in customers’ consideration decisions, it is not clear how the endogenous effects (e.g., the intercompetition among products would influence such decisions. This paper presents a network-based approach based on Exponential Random Graph Models to study customers’ consideration behaviors according to engineering design. Our proposed approach is capable of modeling the endogenous effects among products through various network structures (e.g., stars and triangles besides the exogenous effects and predicting whether two products would be conisdered together. To assess the proposed model, we compare it against the dyadic network model that only considers exogenous effects. Using buyer survey data from the China automarket in 2013 and 2014, we evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the two models. The results show that our model has a better fit and predictive accuracy than the dyadic network model. This underscores the importance of the endogenous effects on customers’ consideration decisions. The insights gained from this research help explain how endogenous effects interact with exogeous effects in affecting customers’ decision-making.

  19. A combined disease management and process modeling approach for assessing and improving care processes: a fall management case-study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askari, Marjan; Westerhof, Richard; Eslami, Saied; Medlock, Stephanie; de Rooij, Sophia E; Abu-Hanna, Ameen

    2013-10-01

    To propose a combined disease management and process modeling approach for evaluating and improving care processes, and demonstrate its usability and usefulness in a real-world fall management case study. We identified essential disease management related concepts and mapped them into explicit questions meant to expose areas for improvement in the respective care processes. We applied the disease management oriented questions to a process model of a comprehensive real world fall prevention and treatment program covering primary and secondary care. We relied on interviews and observations to complete the process models, which were captured in UML activity diagrams. A preliminary evaluation of the usability of our approach by gauging the experience of the modeler and an external validator was conducted, and the usefulness of the method was evaluated by gathering feedback from stakeholders at an invitational conference of 75 attendees. The process model of the fall management program was organized around the clinical tasks of case finding, risk profiling, decision making, coordination and interventions. Applying the disease management questions to the process models exposed weaknesses in the process including: absence of program ownership, under-detection of falls in primary care, and lack of efficient communication among stakeholders due to missing awareness about other stakeholders' workflow. The modelers experienced the approach as usable and the attendees of the invitational conference found the analysis results to be valid. The proposed disease management view of process modeling was usable and useful for systematically identifying areas of improvement in a fall management program. Although specifically applied to fall management, we believe our case study is characteristic of various disease management settings, suggesting the wider applicability of the approach. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Technical note: Comparison of methane ebullition modelling approaches used in terrestrial wetland models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltola, Olli; Raivonen, Maarit; Li, Xuefei; Vesala, Timo

    2018-02-01

    Emission via bubbling, i.e. ebullition, is one of the main methane (CH4) emission pathways from wetlands to the atmosphere. Direct measurement of gas bubble formation, growth and release in the peat-water matrix is challenging and in consequence these processes are relatively unknown and are coarsely represented in current wetland CH4 emission models. In this study we aimed to evaluate three ebullition modelling approaches and their effect on model performance. This was achieved by implementing the three approaches in one process-based CH4 emission model. All the approaches were based on some kind of threshold: either on CH4 pore water concentration (ECT), pressure (EPT) or free-phase gas volume (EBG) threshold. The model was run using 4 years of data from a boreal sedge fen and the results were compared with eddy covariance measurements of CH4 fluxes.Modelled annual CH4 emissions were largely unaffected by the different ebullition modelling approaches; however, temporal variability in CH4 emissions varied an order of magnitude between the approaches. Hence the ebullition modelling approach drives the temporal variability in modelled CH4 emissions and therefore significantly impacts, for instance, high-frequency (daily scale) model comparison and calibration against measurements. The modelling approach based on the most recent knowledge of the ebullition process (volume threshold, EBG) agreed the best with the measured fluxes (R2 = 0.63) and hence produced the most reasonable results, although there was a scale mismatch between the measurements (ecosystem scale with heterogeneous ebullition locations) and model results (single horizontally homogeneous peat column). The approach should be favoured over the two other more widely used ebullition modelling approaches and researchers are encouraged to implement it into their CH4 emission models.

  1. Global approach of mean service satisfaction assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Dooguy Kora

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical expression for mobile service satisfaction assessment has been proposed. Mobile networks users’ satisfaction is a major concern for the operators and regulators. Therefore a certain level of network qualification is required to be offered to consumers by operators thanks to the decisions initiated by the regulation authority. For the assessment of the level of satisfaction, several methodologies and tools (measuring and monitoring have emerged. Ranking in two broad categories, namely the objective and subjective methods, both have advantages as well as disadvantages. This Letter has proposed a unified approach to evaluate more objectively users’ level of satisfaction of a service based on the most common network key performance indicators (KPIs rate following the different methods. This approach's main advantage is that it has taken advantages of the different positive aspects of the existing methods and outperformed their limitations thanks to the introduced concept of global KPI. In addition, the size of samples according to each method has been considered. A mean service satisfaction theoretical expression has been proposed to regulation authority, consumers association and operators as common base of service satisfaction assessment.

  2. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: The Australian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss cur-rent and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and, environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from are think in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications

  3. Quantified risk assessment for hazardous industry: the Australian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haddad, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper presents the key conceptual and methodological aspects of Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) and Hazard Analysis techniques as applied in the process industry, mostly in New South Wales, Australia. Variations in the range of applications of the techniques between the nuclear and non-nuclear industries are highlighted. The opportunity is taken to discuss current and future issues and trends concerning QRA, including: uncertainties and limitations; acceptability of risk criteria; toxicity and chronic health effects; new technology; modelling topics; and environmental risk. The paper concludes by indicating that the next generation QRA, as applicable to Australian conditions in particular, will benefit from a rethink in two areas: a multi-level approach to QRA, and a range of not fully explored applications. 8 refs., 2 tabs

  4. A GoldSim Based Biosphere Assessment Model for a HLW Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn-Myoung; Hwang, Yong-Soo; Kang, Chul-Hyung

    2007-01-01

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, the dose exposure to a human being due to nuclide releases from a repository should be evaluated and the results compared to the dose limit presented by the regulatory bodies. To evaluate a dose rate to an individual due to a long-term release of nuclides from a HLW repository, biosphere assessment models and their implemented codes such as ACBIO1 and ACBIO2 have been developed with the aid of AMBER during the last few years. BIOMASS methodology has been adopted for a HLW repository currently being considered in Korea, which has a similar concept to the Swedish KBS-3 HLW repository. Recently, not just only for verifying the purpose for biosphere assessment models but also for varying the possible alternatives to assess the consequences in a biosphere due to a HLW repository, another version of the assessment modesl has been newly developed in the frame of development programs for a total system performance assessment modeling tool by utilizing GoldSim. Through a current study, GoldSim approach for a biosphere modeling is introduced. Unlike AMBER by which a compartment scheme can be rather simply constructed with an appropriate transition rate between compartments, GoldSim was designed to facilitate the object-oriented modules by which specific models can be addressed in an additional manner, like solving jig saw puzzles

  5. The balanced scorecard: an incremental approach model to health care management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineno, Charles J

    2002-01-01

    The balanced scorecard represents a technique used in strategic management to translate an organization's mission and strategy into a comprehensive set of performance measures that provide the framework for implementation of strategic management. This article develops an incremental approach for decision making by formulating a specific balanced scorecard model with an index of nonfinancial as well as financial measures. The incremental approach to costs, including profit contribution analysis and probabilities, allows decisionmakers to assess, for example, how their desire to meet different health care needs will cause changes in service design. This incremental approach to the balanced scorecard may prove to be useful in evaluating the existence of causality relationships between different objective and subjective measures to be included within the balanced scorecard.

  6. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  7. A multi-model approach to X-ray pulsars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schönherr G.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The emission characteristics of X-ray pulsars are governed by magnetospheric accretion within the Alfvén radius, leading to a direct coupling of accretion column properties and interactions at the magnetosphere. The complexity of the physical processes governing the formation of radiation within the accreted, strongly magnetized plasma has led to several sophisticated theoretical modelling efforts over the last decade, dedicated to either the formation of the broad band continuum, the formation of cyclotron resonance scattering features (CRSFs or the formation of pulse profiles. While these individual approaches are powerful in themselves, they quickly reach their limits when aiming at a quantitative comparison to observational data. Too many fundamental parameters, describing the formation of the accretion columns and the systems’ overall geometry are unconstrained and different models are often based on different fundamental assumptions, while everything is intertwined in the observed, highly phase-dependent spectra and energy-dependent pulse profiles. To name just one example: the (phase variable line width of the CRSFs is highly dependent on the plasma temperature, the existence of B-field gradients (geometry and observation angle, parameters which, in turn, drive the continuum radiation and are driven by the overall two-pole geometry for the light bending model respectively. This renders a parallel assessment of all available spectral and timing information by a compatible across-models-approach indispensable. In a collaboration of theoreticians and observers, we have been working on a model unification project over the last years, bringing together theoretical calculations of the Comptonized continuum, Monte Carlo simulations and Radiation Transfer calculations of CRSFs as well as a General Relativity (GR light bending model for ray tracing of the incident emission pattern from both magnetic poles. The ultimate goal is to implement a

  8. Assessing vocal performance in complex birdsong: a novel approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geberzahn, Nicole; Aubin, Thierry

    2014-08-06

    Vocal performance refers to the ability to produce vocal signals close to physical limits. Such motor skills can be used by conspecifics to assess a signaller's competitive potential. For example it is difficult for birds to produce repeated syllables both rapidly and with a broad frequency bandwidth. Deviation from an upper-bound regression of frequency bandwidth on trill rate has been widely used to assess vocal performance. This approach is, however, only applicable to simple trilled songs, and even then may be affected by differences in syllable complexity. Using skylarks (Alauda arvensis) as a birdsong model with a very complex song structure, we detected another performance trade-off: minimum gap duration between syllables was longer when the frequency ratio between the end of one syllable and the start of the next syllable (inter-syllable frequency shift) was large. This allowed us to apply a novel measure of vocal performance ¿ vocal gap deviation: the deviation from a lower-bound regression of gap duration on inter-syllable frequency shift. We show that skylarks increase vocal performance in an aggressive context suggesting that this trait might serve as a signal for competitive potential. We suggest using vocal gap deviation in future studies to assess vocal performance in songbird species with complex structure.

  9. System Behavior Models: A Survey of Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    OF FIGURES Spiral Model .................................................................................................3 Figure 1. Approaches in... spiral model was chosen for researching and structuring this thesis, shown in Figure 1. This approach allowed multiple iterations of source material...applications and refining through iteration. 3 Spiral Model Figure 1. D. SCOPE The research is limited to a literature review, limited

  10. Applying DoE's Graded Approach for assessing radiation impacts to non-human biota at the Incl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, Randall C.

    2006-01-01

    In July 2002, The US Department of Energy (DOE) released a new technical standard entitled A Graded Approach for Evaluating Radiation Doses to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota. DOE facilities are annually required to demonstrate that routine radioactive releases from their sites are protective of non-human receptors and sites are encouraged to use the Graded Approach for this purpose. Use of the Graded Approach requires completion of several preliminary steps, to evaluate the degree to which the site environmental monitoring program is appropriate for evaluating impacts to non-human biota. We completed these necessary activities at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using the following four tasks: (1) develop conceptual models and evaluate exposure pathways; (2) define INL evaluation areas; (3) evaluate sampling locations and media; (4) evaluate data gaps. All of the information developed in the four steps was incorporated, data sources were identified, departures from the Graded Approach were justified, and a step-by-step procedure for biota dose assessment at the INL was specified. Finally, we completed a site-wide biota dose assessment using the 2002 environmental surveillance data and an offsite assessment using soil and surface water data collected since 1996. These assessments demonstrated the environmental concentrations of radionuclides measured on and near the INL do not present significant risks to populations of non-human biota

  11. Set-Theoretic Approach to Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan

    Despite being widely accepted and applied, maturity models in Information Systems (IS) have been criticized for the lack of theoretical grounding, methodological rigor, empirical validations, and ignorance of multiple and non-linear paths to maturity. This PhD thesis focuses on addressing...... these criticisms by incorporating recent developments in configuration theory, in particular application of set-theoretic approaches. The aim is to show the potential of employing a set-theoretic approach for maturity model research and empirically demonstrating equifinal paths to maturity. Specifically...... methodological guidelines consisting of detailed procedures to systematically apply set theoretic approaches for maturity model research and provides demonstrations of it application on three datasets. The thesis is a collection of six research papers that are written in a sequential manner. The first paper...

  12. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  13. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of water alterations under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Molina, Jose Luis; Pulido Velazquez, Manuel; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the co-evolution and interrelations between natural and human pressures on water systems is required to ensure a sustainable management of resources under uncertain climate change conditions. To pursue multi-disciplinary research is therefore necessary to consider the multiplicity of stressors affecting water resources, take into account alternative perspectives (i.e. social, economic and environmental objective and priorities) and deal with uncertainty which characterize climate change scenarios. However, approaches commonly adopted in water quality assessment are predominantly mono-disciplinary, single-stressors oriented and apply concepts and models specific of different academic disciplines (e.g. physics, hydrology, ecology, sociology, economy) which, in fact, seldom shed their conceptual blinders failing to provide truly integrated results. In this context, the paper discusses the benefits and limits of adopting a multi-disciplinary approach where different knowledge domains collaborate and quantitative and qualitative information, coming from multiple conceptual and model-based research, are integrated in a harmonic manner. Specifically, Bayesian Networks are used as meta-modelling tool for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing hydrological models, climate change and land use projections, historical observations and expert opinion. The developed network allows to perform a stochastic multi-risk assessment considering the interlacing between climate (i.e. irregularities in water regime) and land use changes (i.e. agriculture, urbanization) and their cascading impacts on water quality parameters (i.e. nutrients loadings). Main objective of the model is the development of multi-risk scenarios to assess and communicate the probability of not meeting a "Good chemical water status" over future timeframe taking into account projected climatic and not climatic conditions. The outcomes are finally used to identify

  14. Assessment of safety culture: Changing regulatory approach in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronaky, Jozsef; Toth, Andras

    2002-01-01

    Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority (HAEA) is changing its inspection practice and assessment methods of safety performance and safety culture in operating nuclear facilities. The new approach emphasises integrated team inspection of safety cornerstones and systematic assessment of safety performance of operators. (author)

  15. USING COPULAS TO MODEL DEPENDENCE IN SIMULATION RISK ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana L. Kelly

    2007-11-01

    Typical engineering systems in applications with high failure consequences such as nuclear reactor plants often employ redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore risk. However, it has long been recognized that dependencies exist in these redundant and diverse systems. Some dependencies, such as common sources of electri