WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessment market model

  1. Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Dekimpe (Marnik); D.M. Hanssens (Dominique)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThe question of long-run market response lies at the heart of any marketing strategy that tries to create a sustainable competitive advantage for the firm or brand. A key challenge, however, is that only short-run results of marketing actions are readily observable. Persistence modeling

  2. Energy modeling and comparative assessment beyond the market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.-H.; Langlois, L.; McDonald, A.; Jalal, I.

    2004-01-01

    Market participants engage in constant comparative assessment of prices, available supplies, consumer options. Such implicit comparative assessment is a sine qua non for decision making in, and the smooth function of, competitive markets, but it is not always sufficient for policy makers who make decisions based on priorities other than or in addition to market prices. Supplementary mechanisms are needed to make explicit, to expose for consideration and to incorporate into their decision making processes, broader factors that are not necessarily reflected directly in the market price of a good or service. These would include, for example, employment, environment, national security or trade considerations. They would include long-term considerations, e.g., global warming or greatly diminished future supplies of oil and gas. This paper explores different applications of comparative assessment beyond the market, reviews different approaches for accomplishing such evaluations, and presents some tools available for conducting various types of extra-market comparative assessment, including those currently in use by Member States of the IAEA.(author)

  3. Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo

    2015-01-01

    The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

  4. Assessing market structures in resource markets. An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Panke, Timo [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Energy Economics

    2015-05-15

    The prevalent market structures found in many resource markets consist of a high concentration on the supply side and a low demand elasticity. Market results are therefore frequently assumed to be an outcome of strategic interaction between producers. Common models to investigate the market outcomes and underlying market structures are games representing competitive markets, strategic Cournot competition and Stackelberg structures taking into account a dominant player acting first followed by one or more followers. Besides analysing a previously neglected scenario of the latter kind, we add to the literature by expanding the application of mathematical models by applying an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC), which is used to model multi-leader-follower games, to a spatial market. We apply our model by investigating the prevalent market setting in the international market for metallurgical coal between 2008 and 2010, whose market structure provides arguments for a wide variety of market structures. Using different statistical measures and comparing model with actual market outcomes, we find that two previously neglected settings perform best: First, a setting in which the four largest metallurgical coal exporting firms compete against each other as Stackelberg leaders, while the remainders act as Cournot followers. Second, a setting with BHPB acting as sole Stackelberg leader.

  5. MARKETING MODELS APPLICATION EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yu. Rymanov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Marketing models are used for the assessment of such marketing elements as sales volume, market share, market attractiveness, advertizing costs, product pushing and selling, profit, profitableness. Classification of buying process decision taking models is presented. SWOT- and GAPbased models are best for selling assessments. Lately, there is a tendency to transfer from the assessment on the ba-sis of financial indices to that on the basis of those non-financial. From the marketing viewpoint, most important are long-term company activities and consumer drawingmodels as well as market attractiveness operative models.

  6. The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

    1996-01-01

    The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

  7. The Risk Assessment Study for Electric Power Marketing Competitiveness Based on Cloud Model and TOPSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cunbin; Wang, Yi; Lin, Shuaishuai

    2017-09-01

    With the rapid development of the energy internet and the deepening of the electric power reform, the traditional marketing mode of electric power does not apply to most of electric power enterprises, so must seek a breakthrough, however, in the face of increasingly complex marketing information, how to make a quick, reasonable transformation, makes the electric power marketing competitiveness assessment more accurate and objective becomes a big problem. In this paper, cloud model and TOPSIS method is proposed. Firstly, build the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation index system. Then utilize the cloud model to transform the qualitative evaluation of the marketing data into quantitative values and use the entropy weight method to weaken the subjective factors of evaluation index weight. Finally, by TOPSIS method the closeness degrees of alternatives are obtained. This method provides a novel solution for the electric power marketing competitiveness evaluation. Through the case analysis the effectiveness and feasibility of this model are verified.

  8. Consensus modeling to develop the farmers' market readiness assessment and decision instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eunlye; Dalton, Jarrod; Ngendahimana, David; Bebo, Pat; Davis, Ashley; Remley, Daniel; Smathers, Carol; Freedman, Darcy A

    2017-09-01

    Nutrition-related policy, system, and environmental (PSE) interventions such as farmers' markets have been recommended as effective strategies for promoting healthy diet for chronic disease prevention. Tools are needed to assess community readiness and capacity factors influencing successful farmers' market implementation among diverse practitioners in different community contexts. We describe a multiphase consensus modeling approach used to develop a diagnostic tool for assessing readiness and capacity to implement farmers' market interventions among public health and community nutrition practitioners working with low-income populations in diverse contexts. Modeling methods included the following: phase 1, qualitative study with community stakeholders to explore facilitators and barriers influencing successful implementation of farmers' market interventions in low-income communities; phase 2, development of indicators based on operationalization of qualitative findings; phase 3, assessment of relevance and importance of indicators and themes through consensus conference with expert panel; phase 4, refinement of indicators based on consensus conference; and phase 5, pilot test of the assessment tool. Findings illuminate a range of implementation factors influencing farmers' market PSE interventions and offer guidance for tailoring intervention delivery based on levels of community, practitioner, and organizational readiness and capacity.

  9. Assessing Satisfaction with Selected Student Services Using SERVQUAL, a Market-Driven Model of Service Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruby, Carl A.

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrates how the use of SERVQUAL, a market-driven assessment model adapted from business, can be used to study student satisfaction with four areas of support services hypothetically related to enrollment management. The sample included 748 students enrolled in general education courses at ten different private institutions. (Contains 27…

  10. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  11. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  12. Marketing Prior Learning Assessment Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeger, Gerald A.

    1983-01-01

    Experiential learning programs must be marketed effectively if they are to succeed. The formulation of market strategy is discussed including: strategic planning; identification of a market target; and development of a market mix. A commitment to marketing academic programs is seen as a commitment to self-assessment. (MW)

  13. Assessing the Plurality of Actors and Policy Interactions: Agent-Based Modelling of Renewable Energy Market Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Deissenroth

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing deployment of renewable energy sources (RES calls for an enhanced integration of RES into energy markets, accompanied by a new set of regulations. In Germany, for instance, the feed-in tariff legislation for renewables has been successively replaced by first optional and then obligatory marketing of RES on competitive wholesale markets. This paper introduces an agent-based model that allows studying the impact of changing energy policy instruments on the economic performance of RES operators and marketers. The model structure, its components, and linkages are presented in detail; an additional case study demonstrates the capability of our sociotechnical model. We find that changes in the political framework cannot be mapped directly to RES operators as behaviour of intermediary market actors has to be considered as well. Characteristics and strategies of intermediaries are thus an important factor for successful RES marketing and further deployment. It is shown that the model is able to assess the emergence and stability of market niches.

  14. Market modeling for assessment of demand side programs using the marginal cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papastamatiou, Panagiotis; Psarras, John

    2000-01-01

    Demand side management is nowadays considered as a functional step in the energy planning process. The criteria proposed for the assessment of the demand side programs (DSPs) are usually based on the balance between the marginal supply cost and the mean DSP cost. These criteria could not support the allotting of the invested capital to incentives for the consumers and advertising. This paper presents a methodology to support the utility planning at this point with more reliability. It proposes the expansion of the assessment criteria with the use of the marginal cost of the DSP. For the calculation of the DSP marginal cost, a dynamic model is developed and it is used for the simulation of the penetration of a DS Program. Using the 'least-cost' criterion as the decision rule for the simulation, the planner has a distribution of the available investment capital throughout the whole planning period. The use of the 'most-value' criterion supports the separation of the invested capital between incentives for the consumers and supportive expenses, e.g. advertising, marketing cost, etc. (Author)

  15. An assessment of the watch market in the Gulf Cooperation Council, with a view to develop a model for entering a new brand in this market

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    M.B.A. Increased environmental pressure in a firms' local market are forcing many companies to consider markets outside of their own to do maximize their profitability. According to Henisz (2000) when expanding internationally, a firm's management often must contend with a new culture, a new language, a new social system, new market structures, and a new political system. Titan, a premier brand in the Indian sub-continent aspires to assess the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) market for wa...

  16. Towards an E-market Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivang, Reimer; Hinson, Robert; Somasundaram, Ramanathan

    2006-01-01

    on the literature survey and ídentification of gaps in the present e-market definitive models, the authors postulate a preliminary e-market reference model. Originality/ Value: Through synthesizing the e-market literature, and by taking into account contemporary e-market developments, key dimensions that define......Purpose: Seeks to argue that there are problems associated with e-market definitive efforts and consequently seeks proposes a new e-market model. Design/methodology/Approach: Paper based largely on literature survey and an assessment of the existing e-market conceptualizations. Findings: Based...

  17. ALMR market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacGregor, P.R.; Yates, R.L.

    1992-09-01

    This report examines the potential market size for electrical generating capacity requirements from the year 2010 through the year 2030 in the United States. In particular, the report explores the ability of the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) to be a viable generating capacity option in terms of competing economics during that period. In this study, the impact of cost sensitivities, including ALMR capital costs and fossil fuel prices, on the economic potential of the ALMR are analyzed as well

  18. A methodology for assessing the market benefits of alternative motor fuels: The Alternative Fuels Trade Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leiby, P.N.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes a modeling methodology for examining the prospective economic benefits of displacing motor gasoline use by alternative fuels. The approach is based on the Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). AFTM development was undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of a longer term study of alternative fuels issues. The AFTM is intended to assist with evaluating how alternative fuels may be promoted effectively, and what the consequences of substantial alternative fuels use might be. Such an evaluation of policies and consequences of an alternative fuels program is being undertaken by DOE as required by Section 502(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Interest in alternative fuels is based on the prospective economic, environmental and energy security benefits from the substitution of these fuels for conventional transportation fuels. The transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil. Increased oil use implies increased petroleum imports, with much of the increase coming from OPEC countries. Conversely, displacement of gasoline has the potential to reduce US petroleum imports, thereby reducing reliance on OPEC oil and possibly weakening OPEC`s ability to extract monopoly profits. The magnitude of US petroleum import reduction, the attendant fuel price changes, and the resulting US benefits, depend upon the nature of oil-gas substitution and the supply and demand behavior of other world regions. The methodology applies an integrated model of fuel market interactions to characterize these effects.

  19. HTGR market assessment: interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-09-01

    The purpose of this Assessment is to establish the utility perspective on the market potential of the HTGR. The majority of issues and conclusions in this report are applicable to both the HTGR-Gas Turbine (GT) and the HTGR-Steam Cycle (SC). This phase of the HTGR Market Assessment used the HTGR-GT as the reference design as it is the present focus of the US HTGR Program. A brief system description of the HTGR-GT is included in Appendix A. This initial report provides the proposed structure for conducting the HTGR Market Assessment plus preliminary analyses to establish the magnitude and nature of key factors that affect the HTGR market. The HTGR market factors and their relationship to the present HTGR Program are discussed. This report discusses two of these factors in depth: economics and water availability. The water availability situation in the US and its impact on the potential HTGR market are described. The approach for applying the HTGR within a framework of utility systems analyses is presented

  20. THE SPORT MARKETING MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Lucian MIHAI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Sport marketing involves marketing fundamentals applied in one industry, the sport business industry. The development of sport marketing fundamentals is therefore based on basic marketing principles. The practice and activities of sport marketing are also based on basic marketing activities, but are modified and adapted to the sport business industry. Therefore, sport marketing is based on its primary and parent discipline - marketing. Sport marketing is one of the most important functions of a sport business. This is because the sport marketing activities will define the business. The growth of the sport industry is phenomenal and shows no signs of slowing. Also, sport marketing is a process. A process is a continuous cycle. Therefore, marketing is a function that never ends. The sport marketing management model is an illustration of the elements and process of sport marketing. It should serve as a guide for managing the company’s marketing functions. The model illustrates the elements of marketing, the succession of elements and functions, the process of managing, and the interdependence of the elements This paper presents an overview of the model, sport marketing management, each element and the process.

  1. Modelling Market Dynamics with a "Market Game"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kei; Chen, Yu

    In the financial market, traders, especially speculators, typically behave as to yield capital gains by the difference between selling and buying prices. Making use of the structure of Minority Game, we build a novel market toy model which takes account of such the speculative mind involving a round-trip trade to analyze the market dynamics as a system. Even though the micro-level behavioral rules of players in this new model is quite simple, its macroscopic aggregational output has the reproducibility of the well-known stylized facts such as volatility clustering and heavy tails. The proposed model may become a new alternative bottom-up approach in order to study the emerging mechanism of those stylized qualitative properties of asset returns.

  2. Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis book presents the state of the art in marketing decision models, dealing with new modeling areas such as customer relationship management, customer value and online marketing, but also describes recent developments in other areas. In the category of marketing mix models, the latest

  3. Assessing and exploiting the profit function by modeling the net impact of targeted marketing

    OpenAIRE

    W. BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2005-01-01

    The success of a direct marketing campaign is driven by the ability of companies to estimate customers’ future contribution to their profitability. Especially when considering that in retailing companies are wasting resources when targeting customers who will make purchases even in case they would not receive a mailing. We present an advanced profit evaluation, which rates customers for the net impact of a campaign on their buying behavior. Moreover, in contrast to current practices and theor...

  4. The Economic Benefits of Generation Revenue Assessment in Pool-Based Market Model for Restructured Electricity Supply Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ngadiron Zuraidah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The electricity supply industry had undergo deregulation and restructuring toward becoming a more transparent and competitive electricity market environment. The pool market model is amongst the most preferred electricity market model. Even though it is a safe option to be more competitive and transparent electricity supply industry, there are issues on the welfare of the generators involved. This paper addresses the pricing issue in the pool market by extending the capacity payment mechanism in the single auction power pool. In the proposed model, the approach of minimum capacity payment involving the efficiency of the generators is introduced. A case study is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. An economic analysis is performed to highlight the merits of the proposed model with the pure pool in term of generation revenue.

  5. COMMODITY MARKET MATH MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris V. Mednikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes enterprise mathmodels, its interactions with environment in commodity market and quantitativeconditions for its success and the crisis in such kind of interaction. Showed: the number of commodity market successfulparticipants should be certain, regardless of market size; any size commodity market, including monopolistic, is assuccessful as producers’ average activity dynamics is balanced with consumers’average activity dynamics.

  6. Modeling Dynamic Effects of the Marketing Mix on Market Shares

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractTo comprehend the competitive structure of a market, it is important to understand the short-run and long-run effects of the marketing mix on market shares. A useful model to link market shares with marketing-mix variables, like price and promotion, is the market share attraction model.

  7. Evaluating and Improving the SAMA (Segmentation Analysis and Market Assessment) Recruiting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    53  APPENDIX B. SAMPLE VBA CONSOLIDATION CODE .............................................55  APPENDIX C. DATA...Assessment SSE Sum of Squared Errors TS Tactical Segment USAREC United States Army Recruiting Command VBA Visual Basic for Applications VIF...this research is the lack of access to SAMA calculations since it is a real- time system available exclusively to USAREC personnel. However, we

  8. Green Tourism Marketing Model1

    OpenAIRE

    Hasan, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Green Tourism Marketing Model research as efforts to develop environmentally friendly tourism destination, the synergy of government, business and community participation become the driving force of tourism product development with highly competitive. In the long term, this research aims to provide the marketing concept of green tourism as economic development efforts and strengthen the environment (eco-growth) through the development of green tourism marketing models. The ...

  9. Austria's wind energy potential – A participatory modeling approach to assess socio-political and market acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Höltinger, Stefan; Salak, Boris; Schauppenlehner, Thomas; Scherhaufer, Patrick; Schmidt, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    Techno-economic assessments confirm the potential of wind energy to contribute to a low carbon bioeconomy. The increasing diffusion of wind energy, however, has turned wind energy acceptance into a significant barrier with respect to the deployment of wind turbines. This article assesses whether, and at what cost, Austrian renewable energy targets can be met under different expansion scenarios considering the socio-political and market acceptance of wind energy. Land-use scenarios have been defined in a participatory modeling approach with stakeholders from various interest groups. We calculated the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for all of the potential wind turbine sites, which we used to generate wind energy supply curves. The results show that wind energy production could be expanded to 20% of the final end energy demand in three out of four scenarios. However, more restrictive criteria increase LCOE by up to 20%. In contrast to common views that see local opposition against wind projects as the main barrier for wind power expansion, our participatory modeling approach indicates that even on the level of key stakeholders, the future possible contribution of wind energy to Austrian renewable energy targets reaches from almost no further expansion to very high shares of wind energy. - Highlights: • Including social barriers could reduce Austria’s wind potential from 92.78 to 3.89 TWh • Costs for attaining a 20% wind energy share vary by 20% between the scenarios • Socially acceptable wind area potential ranges from 0.1 to 3.9% of Austria’s total area • Excluding forest areas lowers the maximum wind energy potential by 45%

  10. Marketing Modeling for New Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis addresses the analysis of new or very recent marketing data and the introduction of new marketing models. We present a collection of models that are useful to analyze (1) the optimal launch time of new and dominant technologies, (2) the triggers, speed and timing of new

  11. A conceptual model of political market orientation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ormrod, Robert P.

    2005-01-01

    . The remaining four constructs are attitudinal, designed to capture the awareness of members to the activities and importance of stakeholder groups in society, both internal and external to the organisation. The model not only allows the level of a party's political market orientation to be assessed, but also......This article proposes eight constructs of a conceptual model of political market orientation, taking inspiration from the business and political marketing literature. Four of the constructs are 'behavioural' in that they aim to describe the process of how information flows through the organisation...

  12. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  13. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  14. Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V.; Barth, R.; Brand, H.; Weber, C.; Voll, O.

    2006-01-01

    The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

  15. Wilmar joint market model, Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meibom, P.; Larsen, Helge V. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Barth, R.; Brand, H. [IER, Univ. of Stuttgart (Germany); Weber, C.; Voll, O. [Univ. of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2006-01-15

    The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (Contract No. ENK5-CT-2002-00663). A User Shell implemented in an Excel workbook controls the Wilmar Planning Tool. All data are contained in Access databases that communicate with various sub-models through text files that are exported from or imported to the databases. The Joint Market Model (JMM) constitutes one of these sub-models. This report documents the Joint Market model (JMM). The documentation describes: 1. The file structure of the JMM. 2. The sets, parameters and variables in the JMM. 3. The equations in the JMM. 4. The looping structure in the JMM. (au)

  16. Assessing restrictiveness of national alcohol marketing policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Marissa B; Jernigan, David H

    2014-01-01

    To develop an approach for monitoring national alcohol marketing policies globally, an area of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Alcohol Strategy. Data on restrictiveness of alcohol marketing policies came from the 2002 and 2008 WHO Global Surveys on Alcohol and Health. We included four scales in a sensitivity analysis to determine optimal weights to score countries on their marketing policies and applied the selected scale to assess national marketing policy restrictiveness. Nearly, 36% of countries had no marketing restrictions. The overall restrictiveness levels were not significantly different between 2002 and 2008. The number of countries with strict marketing regulations did not differ across years. This method of monitoring alcohol marketing restrictiveness helps track progress towards implementing WHO'S Global Alcohol Strategy. Findings indicate a consistent lack of restrictive policies over time, making this a priority area for national and global action. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  17. Noncooperative models of permit markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd

    2011-07-15

    The applicability of some popular and basic permit market theories has been questioned. Drawing on noncooperative equilibrium theory for pure exchange economies, this article adapts several well-established alternative models to permit exchange. Some qualitative properties of the associated equilibria are provided, including two games with equilibria that in a sense coincide. Nevertheless, as there exist quite a few models potentially applicable to emissions trading, with equilibria that range from autarky to Pareto optimality, it seems that economics lacks a broadly accepted basic theory for permit markets. (Author)

  18. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  19. European regulation model for herbal medicine: The assessment of the EU monograph and the safety and efficacy evaluation in marketing authorization or registration in Member States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Liping; Zou, Wenjun; Wang, YiTao; Wang, Mei

    2018-03-15

    The European Union (EU) has created a regulatory framework for herbal medicinal products (HMPs) since the enforcement of Directive 2004/24/EC. Substantial achievements have been made, with 1719 traditional use marketing registrations (TURs) and 859 well-established use marketing authorizations (WEU-MAs) for HMPs granted by the end of 2016. Apparently, the European regulation model has worked out well and in that the essential feature is the use of EU herbal monographs into those granted WEU-MAs and TURs. A systematic analysis of the European regulation model for HMPs and the EU herbal monograph's part of this model are undertaken to assist understanding of the EU legislation particularly for interested parties those from outside EU area, and afterwards, to help in decision-making in the HMPs registration in European market for pharmaceutical companies, as well as in the establishment of legislation in countries with strong traditional use of herbal remedies. A search of PubMed, ScienceDirect, the European Medicines Agency website and the Heads of Medicines Agencies website was conducted (up to December 2017), and the available information on regulation of HMPs in the EU was collected. The evaluation of applications by National Competent Authorities (NCAs) at a national level together with the assessment of EU monographs by the Committee on Herbal Medicinal Products (HMPC) at the European level constitute the European regulation framework for HMPs. As the scientific opinion about the safety and efficacy of HMPs from HMPC, the EU herbal monographs have been given a constitutional-based meaning to the TURs and WEU-MAs of HMPs and play a supportive function in the marketing procedure in Member States. The European framework has provided a powerful regulation model for harmonization of scientific assessment and facilitation of product marketing. For the pharmaceutical industries particularly those outside the EU, optimal use of the EU herbal monograph in their marketing

  20. Market reactions to the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sahin, Cenkhan; de Haan, Jakob

    Using an event study approach, we examine financial markets' reactions to the publication of the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment of banks in the euro area. Our results suggest that banks' stock market prices and CDS spreads generally showed no reaction. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessment of the Competitive Environment in the Regional Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandr Yuryevich Kokovikhin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The maturity of competitiveness and its dynamics is a focus of assessing state decisions aimed for economic growth. To estimate the maturity of the competitive environment, researchers apply different methods. However, synthesis of the existing approaches has revealed the comparability of various approaches to the assessment of the maturity of the competitive environment. The authors have proposed a methodology of comprehensive assessment, which includes the estimation of market concentration, diverging trends of revenue and costs, survey of entrepreneurs. The comparison of the estimations employs a three-stage model of data processing. This model consequently compares the characteristics of markets maturity obtained while implementing the above-mentioned approaches. We have tested the methodology using the materials of the research performed in 2015–2017 on the territory of Sverdlovsk Region. Our study has shown the following essential results. Firstly, we have classified socially important and priority markets of Sverdlovsk Region by the level of competitiveness development. Most of the markets are estimated as the markets with missing and low competition. The majority of them represent the segments of the education market. The authors also grouped highly competitive markets, which include the retail market, the market of overland carriage of passengers, the market of communication services and the market of cultural services. Moreover, we specified the group of markets with a moderate competition. This group consists of the market of housing and communal services, social services market, and the market of medical products. Secondly, we confirmed that the assessment of a competitive situation using one of the approaches is imprecise. Both in 2015 and in 2016, there is no convergence in estimates received by statistical and survey methods for the market of social services and certain segments of the education market. The authors explain it by

  2. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  3. Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models

    CERN Document Server

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.

  4. Marketing data, models and decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; Kamakura, W; Bockenholt, U

    Our comments about the paper by Leeflang and Wittink [Internat. J. Res. Marketing, 17 (2000) 105] comprise of two components: first, we address two issues on which we disagree with Leeflang and Wittink: soft versus hard data, and individual-level versus segment-level models. Secondly, we supplement

  5. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  7. Assessing Competition in Philippine Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Aldaba, Rafaelita M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews the current empirical literature on competition and market structure of Philippine industries. It shows that weak competition is one of the fundamental factors that explain limited growth, productivity, and employment in the economy. Philippine experience has shown that reforms such as trade liberalization, deregulation, and privatization, while necessary, are not sufficient to foster effective competition. The success of these reforms depends on the creation of a competiti...

  8. Industrial process heat market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresnick, S.

    1981-12-01

    This report is designed to be a reference resource, giving a broad perspective of the potential HTGR market for industrial process heat. It is intended to serve as a briefing document for those wishing to obtain background information and also to serve as a starting point from which more detailed and refined studies may be undertaken. In doing so, the report presents a qualitative and quantitative description of the industrial process heat market in the US, provides a summary discussion of cogeneration experience to date, and outlines the existing institutional and financial framework for cogeneration. The intent is to give the reader an understanding of the current situation and experience in this area. The cogeneration area in particular is an evolving one because of regulations and tax laws, which are still in the process of being developed and interpreted. The report presents the latest developments in regulatory and legislative activities which are associated with that technology. Finally, the report presents a brief description of the three HTGR systems under study during the current fiscal year and describes the specific market characteristics which each application is designed to serve

  9. Industrial process heat market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bresnick, S.

    1981-12-01

    This report is designed to be a reference resource, giving a broad perspective of the potential HTGR market for industrial process heat. It is intended to serve as a briefing document for those wishing to obtain background information and also to serve as a starting point from which more detailed and refined studies may be undertaken. In doing so, the report presents a qualitative and quantitative description of the industrial process heat market in the US, provides a summary discussion of cogeneration experience to date, and outlines the existing institutional and financial framework for cogeneration. The intent is to give the reader an understanding of the current situation and experience in this area. The cogeneration area in particular is an evolving one because of regulations and tax laws, which are still in the process of being developed and interpreted. The report presents the latest developments in regulatory and legislative activities which are associated with that technology. Finally, the report presents a brief description of the three HTGR systems under study during the current fiscal year and describes the specific market characteristics which each application is designed to serve.

  10. Assessing the efficiency of US electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arciniegas, I.; Barrett, C.; Marathe, A.

    2003-01-01

    The recent California's energy crisis has raised doubts about the benefits of energy deregulation. While it is true that the California electricity market is in turmoil, other electricity markets like the Pennsylvania-NewJersey-Maryland (PJM) are doing fine. This paper assesses the mark of efficiency reached by the electricity markets in California, New York, and PJM. It also compares the degree of efficiency across markets (forward vs. real time) and across time. No significant differences between the California and PJM electricity markets were discovered in the year of California's energy crisis (2000) using the co-integration tests. This research suggests that differences in price behavior between these two markets during 2000 did not arise from differences in efficiency. According to our analysis and measures of efficiency, PJM and California electricity markets are more efficient than the New York market. Also, as these markets become more mature over time, their efficiency level goes up. We also found evidence that a multi-settlement scheduling system leads to higher efficiency. (author)

  11. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Bistra Vassileva; Miroslav Nikolov

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed concep...

  12. Function Modelling Of The Market And Assessing The Degree Of Similarity Between Real Properties - Dependent Or Independent Procedures In The Process Of Office Property Valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barańska Anna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Referring to the developed and presented in previous publications (e.g. Barańska 2011 two-stage algorithm for real estate valuation, this article addresses the problem of the relationship between the two stages of the algorithm. An essential part of the first stage is the multi-dimensional function modelling of the real estate market. As a result of selecting the model best fitted to the market data, in which the dependent variable is always the price of a real property, a set of market attributes is obtained, which in this model are considered to be price-determining. In the second stage, from the collection of real estate which served as a database in the process of estimating model parameters, the selected objects are those which are most similar to the one subject to valuation and form the basis for predicting the final value of the property being valued. Assessing the degree of similarity between real properties can be carried out based on the full spectrum of real estate attributes that potentially affect their value and which it is possible to gather information about, or only on the basis of those attributes which were considered to be price-determining in function modelling. It can also be performed by various methods. This article has examined the effect of various approaches on the final value of the property obtained using the two-stage prediction. In order fulfill the study aim precisely as possible, the results of each calculation step of the algorithm have been investigated in detail. Each of them points to the independence of the two procedures.

  13. Models of the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

    1991-01-01

    Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

  14. Labour market participants’ competitiveness assessment based on latent variables theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Sabetova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article suggests innovative model for assessment of labour market subjects’ competitiveness, or successfulness. The authors state that general complex indicator for individual competitiveness within the labour market cannot be identified. Instead, precise enough assessment of such competitiveness can be based on some variables, though different for in-house and external labour market. The model of latent variables’ assessment based on Rasch’s method was selected as the base for the suggested method. The assessment model gives unbiased generalized values of subjects’ competitiveness on the linear non-dimensional scale based on the partial estimates of the selected criteria. The free choice of these criteria allows the model’s appliance for various labour market segments. The article demonstrates the mathematical grounding for the model; methodic of the assessment criteria selection; the way of assessment performance using MS Excel. It also analyses the features of the obtained estimates and shows their comparison with the estimates obtained by traditional methods. The model suggested by the authors can introduce any quantitative parameter of competitiveness as a variable after analysis of the factors affecting it. The quantitative estimates of these factors become the model’s criteria, but the assessment precision does not alter.

  15. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bistra Vassileva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

  16. Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallo, Giulia [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-12-18

    The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One option includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.

  17. Rethinking exchange market models as optimization algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luquini, Evandro; Omar, Nizam

    2018-02-01

    The exchange market model has mainly been used to study the inequality problem. Although the human society inequality problem is very important, the exchange market models dynamics until stationary state and its capability of ranking individuals is interesting in itself. This study considers the hypothesis that the exchange market model could be understood as an optimization procedure. We present herein the implications for algorithmic optimization and also the possibility of a new family of exchange market models

  18. 2010 Northwest Federal Market Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scanlon, Tim; Sandusky, William F.

    2011-09-01

    The primary intent of this market assessment is to provide insights on the effectiveness of current energy efficiency and renewable energy program offerings available to Federal sites in the region. The level of detail, quality and currency of the data used in this market assessment varies significantly by Federal agency and energy efficiency service provider. Limited access to some Federal sites, limited availability of key points of contact, time/resource constraints, and other considerations limited the total number of Federal agencies and energy efficiency service providers participating in the survey.

  19. Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jolita Jezukevičiūtė; Vida Davidavičienė

    2014-01-01

    The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalys...

  20. Brand marketing model on social networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jezukevičiūtė, Jolita; Davidavičienė, Vida

    2014-01-01

    Paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions on social networks. This analysis led to the creation of improved brand marketing model on social networks, which will contribute to the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increase competitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore, the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hot research area for brand marketing model on social networks. The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratory an...

  1. Developing a water market readiness assessment framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Sarah Ann; Loch, Adam; Crase, Lin; Young, Mike; Grafton, R. Quentin

    2017-09-01

    Water markets are increasingly proposed as a demand-management strategy to deal with water scarcity. Water trading arrangements, on their own, are not about setting bio-physical limits to water-use. Nevertheless, water trading that mitigates scarcity constraints can assist regulators of water resources to keep water-use within limits at the lowest possible cost, and may reduce the cost of restoring water system health. While theoretically attractive, many practitioners have, at best, only a limited understanding of the practical usefulness of markets and how they might be most appropriately deployed. Using lessons learned from jurisdictions around the world where water markets have been implemented, this study attempts to fill the existing water market development gap and provide an initial framework (the water market readiness assessment (WMRA)) to describe the policy and administrative conditions/reforms necessary to enable governments/jurisdictions to develop water trading arrangements that are efficient, equitable and within sustainable limits. Our proposed framework consists of three key steps: 1) an assessment of hydrological and institutional needs; 2) a market evaluation, including assessment of development and implementation issues; and 3) the monitoring, continuous/review and assessment of future needs; with a variety of questions needing assessment at each stage. We apply the framework to three examples: regions in Australia, the United States and Spain. These applications indicate that WMRA can provide key information for water planners to consider on the usefulness of water trading processes to better manage water scarcity; but further practical applications and tests of the framework are required to fully evaluate its effectiveness.

  2. Solvable stochastic dealer models for financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Kenta; Takayasu, Hideki; Ito, Takatoshi; Takayasu, Misako

    2009-05-01

    We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects: the self-modulation of transaction intervals and a forecasting tendency, which uses a moving average of the latest market price changes. Based on the present microscopic model of markets, we find a quantitative relation with market potential forces, which have recently been discovered in the study of market price modeling based on random walks.

  3. The BERR gas market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-10-01

    Security of supply is one of the key objectives in the UK's department of Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) gas market model. BERR found that a useful way to measure energy security was to estimate future 'expected energy unserved'. This comprises a combination of possible levels of shortfall between supply and demand and other probabilities to give a probability-weighted amount of unserved demand. BERR has also studied the conditions (inputs) that are likely to result in lower expected energy unserved, i.e. it has identified the drivers of security of supply and has developed a framework for categorising these drivers

  4. Model of Nordic energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjelsvik, E.; Johnsen, T.; Mysen, H.T.

    1992-01-01

    Simulation results are given of the consumption of electricity and oil in Denmark, Norway and Sweden based on the demand section of a Nordic energy market model which is in the process of being developed in Oslo under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers. The model incorporates supply, and trade between countries so that it can be analyzed how trading can contribute to goals within energy and environmental policies and to cost effective activities aimed at reducing pollution. The article deals in some detail with the subject of how taxation on carbon dioxide emission can influence pollution abatement and with energy consumption development within individual sectors in individual Northern countries. The model of energy demand is described with emphasis on the individual sectors of industry, transport, service and private households. Simulation results giving the effects of energy consumption and increased taxation on fossil fuels are given. On this background the consequences of the adaption of power plants is discussed and a sketch is given of a Nordic electric power market incorporating trading. (AB) (15 refs.)

  5. Viral marketing as epidemiological model

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Helena Sofia; Fonseca, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    In epidemiology, an epidemic is defined as the spread of an infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time. In the marketing context, a message is viral when it is broadly sent and received by the target market through person-to-person transmission. This specific marketing communication strategy is commonly referred as viral marketing. Due to this similarity between an epidemic and the viral marketing process and because the understanding of...

  6. Advertising effects in Sznajd marketing model

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Schulze

    2002-01-01

    The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, are applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice is the smaller is the amount of advertising needed to convince the whole market

  7. Advertising in the Sznajd Marketing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Christian

    The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, is applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice, the smaller the amount of advertising is needed to convince the whole market.

  8. Brand Marketing Model on Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolita Jezukevičiūtė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the brand and its marketing solutions onsocial networks. This analysis led to the creation of improvedbrand marketing model on social networks, which will contributeto the rapid and cheap organization brand recognition, increasecompetitive advantage and enhance consumer loyalty. Therefore,the brand and a variety of social networks are becoming a hotresearch area for brand marketing model on social networks.The world‘s most successful brand marketing models exploratoryanalysis of a single case study revealed a brand marketingsocial networking tools that affect consumers the most. Basedon information analysis and methodological studies, develop abrand marketing model on social networks.

  9. Value chain and marketing margins of cassava: An assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Value chain and marketing margins of cassava: An assessment of cassava marketing in ... African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development ... Cassava is one of the emerging market oriented agricultural commodities with ...

  10. The British Columbia natural gas market overview and assessment : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-04-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report provides an assessment of the natural gas market in British Columbia (BC) and discusses several issues facing the market. The main challenges facing the market in recent years have been rising prices, price spikes and increased price volatility. New exploration and development projects have been announced along with new gas pipeline projects that move gas to eastern markets. Industrial consumers are exploring fuel alternatives to reduce natural gas consumption. Despite these challenges, the Board believes the natural gas market in British Columbia is working well. Natural gas prices are integrated with the North American market, consumers have responded to higher prices by reducing demand, and producers have increased exploration and production. Price discovery has improved due to better pricing reporting standards and access to electronic gas trading at pricing points for BC gas. The small market size in British Columbia and the lack of storage in the Lower Mainland limit market liquidity in comparison with other major market centres. 20 figs

  11. Utility market penetration assessment of fusion-fission hybrids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, B.K.; Nour, N.E.; Piascik, T.M.

    1981-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the utility generation expansion evaluation procedure and to present the results of a fusion-fission hybrid market penetration assessment in a model of a typical utility system. The analysis addresses the key factors and tradeoffs affecting the utility's evaluation of generation alternatives

  12. Marketing research model of competitive environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasilya Dmitriy

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available To support its competitive advantages in current market conditions, each company needs to choose better ways of guaranteeing its favorable competitive position. In this regard, considerable interest lies in the structuring and algorithmization of marketing research processes that provide the information background of such choice. The article is devoted to modeling the process of marketing research of competitive environment.

  13. FORMATIVE AND REFLECTIVE MODELS IN MARKETING RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Ioana CIOBANU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Compliance with the construct validity criteria is necessary for the correct assessment of the research in terms of quality and for further development of the marketing models. The identification of formative and reflective constructs as well as the correct testing of their validity and reliability are important methodological steps for marketing research as described in this article. The first part defines the reflective and the formative constructs and highlighst their particularities by analysing the theoretical criteria that differentiate them. In the second part of the study aspects of validity and trust for the formative and reflective constructs are presented as well as some empirical considerations from research literature regarding their measurement.

  14. Content Analysis of Assessment Data in Marketing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vowles, Nicole; Hutto, Alexandra; Miller, Peter Max M.

    2017-01-01

    This study analyzes a sample of students' writing to assess their understanding of marketing concepts in the context of a Principles of Marketing course. Content analysis of pre- and post-essays was used to assess student knowledge of marketing concepts. The data was collected in Principles of Marketing classes. and highlight that many students…

  15. Motor Gasoline Market Model documentation report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Motor Gasoline Market Model (MGMM), describe its basic approach and to provide detail on model functions. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. The MGMM performs a short-term (6- to 9-month) forecast of demand and price for motor gasoline in the US market; it also calculates end of month stock levels. The model is used to analyze certain market behavior assumptions or shocks and to determine the effect on market price, demand and stock level

  16. Novel approach to assess local market power considering transmission constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Canbing; Xia, Qing; Kang, Chongqing; Jiang, Jianjian

    2008-01-01

    Market power (MP) assessment and mitigation affect the efficiency of the generation market. The traditional indices such as HHI and Lerner index can not express local market power, which caused by transmission constraints. Transmission constraints divide the market into some smaller parts. Some generators can abuse their MP in one part but not in the whole market. This paper describes a new approach to assess market power. The main contributions of the new method can be summarized as following. First, the concept of local market is developed, and the whole power system is divided into several local markets, as transmission congestions dividing the market. In the local markets, there are no transmission constraints so local market power does not exist. Then the local market power index (LMPI) is calculated according to market concentration, transmission constraints, and demand-supply ratio. Based on LMPI, the integrated local market power index which describes the whole picture of market can be obtained. It has been proved that the new approach can assess market power exactly, and identify the critical factor that results in market power and where generators are easy to exercise market power. The finding in this paper is helpful for market monitoring and mitigating market power. Moreover, the new index can be used to evaluate the power grid availability to generation competition and the power transmission expansion planning. (author)

  17. The utility target market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leng, G.J.; Martin, J.

    1994-01-01

    A new model (the Utility Target Market Model) is used to evaluate the economic benefits of photovoltaic (PV) power systems located at the electrical utility customer site. These distributed PV demand-side generation systems can be evaluated in a similar manner to other demand-side management technologies. The energy and capacity values of an actual PV system located in the service area of the New England Electrical System (NEES) are the two utility benefits evaluated. The annual stream of energy and capacity benefits calculated for the utility are converted to the installed cost per watt that the utility should be willing to invest to receive this benefit stream. Different discount rates are used to show the sensitivity of the allowable installed cost of the PV systems to a utility's average cost of capital. Capturing both the energy and capacity benefits of these relatively environmentally friendly distributed generators, NEES should be willing to invest in this technology when the installed cost per watt declines to ca $2.40 using NEES' rated cost of capital (8.78%). If a social discount rate of 3% is used, installation should be considered when installed cost approaches $4.70/W. Since recent installations in the Sacramento Municipal Utility District have cost between $7-8/W, cost-effective utility applications of PV are close. 22 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  18. New Brunswick Market Design Committee : market design issues paper : choice of market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    A model for the competitive electricity market in New Brunswick was not specified by the White Paper: New Brunswick Energy Policy, published in March 2001. One of the tasks of the Market Design Committee (MDC) is to select a market model for the province. This report was prepared with this objective in mind. It begins by providing a description of the basic functions that must be performed by any electricity system. Different market models will function differently, and a descriptions of how the functions would be performed under each model is presented. Considering the specific size and geographic location of New Brunswick, a number of actual markets that could be of interest are presented. The various electricity markets normally use one of four market models: vertically integrated monopoly utility, a competitive pool market, a bilateral contract market, and a single-buyer market. The first model was not explained as it represents the existing, non-competitive model whereby the government owns and/or regulates price and investment decision. The case where a market operator receives bids and offers from buyers and sellers and matches them to derive a price and schedule for the spot market is what is called the competitive pool market. When electricity trade takes place through a series of contracts between individual buyers and sellers, it is referred to as a bilateral contract market. Finally, the single-buyer market is defined as a monopoly where the buyer purchases from multiple sellers based on competition amongst them. Different examples are provided of applications of the three markets described in the paper. Both New England and New Zealand were chosen to better illustrate the concepts of a fully competitive pool-based market, as they either have close ties to New Brunswick, or share physical similarities. The single-buyer model is illustrated by the case of Northern Ireland where size is similar. The choices made in Quebec were described in the final

  19. Waste Heat to Power Market Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elson, Amelia [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Tidball, Rick [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hampson, Anne [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Waste heat to power (WHP) is the process of capturing heat discarded by an existing process and using that heat to generate electricity. In the industrial sector, waste heat streams are generated by kilns, furnaces, ovens, turbines, engines, and other equipment. In addition to processes at industrial plants, waste heat streams suitable for WHP are generated at field locations, including landfills, compressor stations, and mining sites. Waste heat streams are also produced in the residential and commercial sectors, but compared to industrial sites these waste heat streams typically have lower temperatures and much lower volumetric flow rates. The economic feasibility for WHP declines as the temperature and flow rate decline, and most WHP technologies are therefore applied in industrial markets where waste heat stream characteristics are more favorable. This report provides an assessment of the potential market for WHP in the industrial sector in the United States.

  20. DEEPENING SERVICES MARKET INTEGRATION - A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Pelkmans

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The greatest asset of the European Union is undoubtedly its internal market. However, the internal market is not completed: it suffers from a giant hole with respect to many services. The present contribution addresses the status of services in the internal market and, in particular, the horizontal liberalisation (or, the lack of it of services outside the two large sectors which greatly deepened market integration (6 modes of transport and 3 financial services markets. Because a horizontal perspective on services in the EU is still little understood, it is briefly summarized what services really are and how their regulatory logic in the internal market can help to classify them. The (strong economic case for deepening services market integration is built on recent empirical economic analysis as well as simulation. This is followed by a discussion, with flowchart, of the Bolkestein draft directive, against the backdrop of the frustrating lack of, or at best, selective progress on services for decades. A survey of economic impact studies of the draft directive is provided, too, underpinning its importance even when the infamous origin principle is taken out. Some light is subsequently shed on the tumultuous politicisation of the services debate. Emphasis is laid on the socio-economic context (which, it is submitted, sharpened the discussion at times into polarisation and a series of other factors such as the diversity of the national regulatory frameworks of services and the labour employed, the complexity of the draft directive, the potentially radical nature of the origin principle (especially for those not aware of the case law of the ECJ, the dominant role of the EP and the opportunism of leading national politicians. Finally, directive 2006/123 –meanwhile in force – is explained and briefly assessed. Apart from the conspicuous manifestation of 'Angst' in drafting the directive, the (de merits are set out. The conclusion is that a badly

  1. Modelling of demand response and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

  2. Marketing Education on a Shoestring: A Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shreeve, William; And Others

    Few educators envision themselves as marketing or public relations experts, yet economic reality is forcing many academicians into these roles. Over the past four years, the Eastern Washington University Department of Education has developed a successful marketing model for educators. The model begins with a successful reform of department…

  3. Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erie Febrian

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar's (2006 framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1, GARCH(3,1, and GARCH (1,1, respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.

  4. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  5. Modeling the marketing strategy-performance relationship : towards an hierarchical marketing performance framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Zengerink, Evelien

    2001-01-01

    Accurate measurement of marketing performance is an important topic for both marketing academics and marketing managers. Many researchers have recognized that marketing performance measurement should go beyond financial measurement. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework that models

  6. A Marketing Assessment of Beneficiaries at Kimbrough Army Community Hospital

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-05-01

    environment, organizational goal formulation, strategy formulation, Marketing Assessment 10 organization and systems design ( Kotler , 1987). Second...environmental analysis itself is concerned with identifying marketing opportunities, threats, environmental trends and their implications ( Kotler , 1987...decision to develop beneficiary subgroups was based on the marketing principle of market segmentation which assumes that no one strategy will work for

  7. A model of the world uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trieu, L.H.; Savage, E.; Dwyer, G.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed and an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on the spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingly being reflected in contract agreements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this relationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be expected after 1993 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply entering from non-traditional market sources. (Author)

  8. MODEL OF MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS EFFECTIVENESS IN THE BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Jerman, Damjana; Završnik, Bruno

    2012-01-01

    Much of the research into marketing communications has focused on the consumer market with little regard to date for the business-to-business market. This paper focuses on a development and testing of a model of marketing communication effectiveness in the business-to-business market. Building on past research from the marketing communications and business-to-business marketing literature, the model (which incorporates facets of the marketing communication objectives, bidirectional communicat...

  9. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund

    2014-01-01

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  10. Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Trueby, Johannes [International Energy Agency, 75 - Paris (France)

    2014-04-15

    Markets for natural resources and commodities are often oligopolistic. In these markets, production capacities are key for strategic interaction between the oligopolists. We analyze how different market structures influence oligopolistic capacity investments and thereby affect supply, prices and rents in spatial natural resource markets using mathematical programing models. The models comprise an investment period and a supply period in which players compete in quantities. We compare three models, one perfect competition and two Cournot models, in which the product is either traded through long-term contracts or on spot markets in the supply period. Tractability and practicality of the approach are demonstrated in an application to the international metallurgical coal market. Results may vary substantially between the different models. The metallurgical coal market has recently made progress in moving away from long-term contracts and more towards spot market-based trade. Based on our results, we conclude that this regime switch is likely to raise consumer rents but lower producer rents. The total welfare differs only negligibly.

  11. Regression Models for Market-Shares

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Kristina; Olsen, Jørgen Kai; Tjur, Tue

    2005-01-01

    On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put on the interpretat......On the background of a data set of weekly sales and prices for three brands of coffee, this paper discusses various regression models and their relation to the multiplicative competitive-interaction model (the MCI model, see Cooper 1988, 1993) for market-shares. Emphasis is put...... on the interpretation of the parameters in relation to models for the total sales based on discrete choice models.Key words and phrases. MCI model, discrete choice model, market-shares, price elasitcity, regression model....

  12. Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Fred Espen Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics......, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained...

  13. The Maritimes natural gas market overview and assessment : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-06-01

    The National Energy Board continually monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report provides an assessment of the functioning of the natural gas market in the Maritimes and discusses several issues facing the market. The focus of the report is on the existing markets served by the Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline (M and NP) in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. It also includes Prince Edward Island, another Maritime market that may be served by the pipeline before the end of the decade. Since the initiation of the Sable Offshore Energy (SOE) Project more than 3 years ago, pipeline facilities have been built off the mainline M and NP system to serve Halifax and Point Tupper in Nova Scotia, and Saint John, Moncton, and St. George in New Brunswick. Enbridge Gas New Brunswick has built distribution facilities in Fredericton and Oromocto, New Brunswick to serve large industrial, commercial and residential consumers. A distribution system has not been set up for residential or commercial customers in Nova Scotia. Approximately 20 per cent of the Scotian production is being consumed in the Maritimes, while 80 per cent of the gas produced from the SOE Project is being exported to the United States. Despite the high export, the Board is satisfied that the market is working to the benefit of Canadians because energy users in the Maritimes already have access to a variety of fuels at competitive prices. The Maritimes also benefited from the development of the natural gas industry and the export market has provided a large anchor market necessary for the development of offshore reserves. Domestic demand has also grown due to a pipeline system policy that has maintained low transportation rates to domestic users. The challenges facing the Maritimes gas market include the fact than many of the markets in the Maritimes are small, thereby reducing the economics of serving these

  14. Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno

  15. Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.

    2003-01-01

    For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)

  16. Marketing Model for Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahin, Jaime

    In order to survive projected enrollment decreases and to better serve nontraditional students, community colleges must develop marketing plans that make effective use of five community resources: local school system personnel, business and industry, civic and social service agencies, college personnel, and the local media. In approaching these…

  17. Quantitative models in marketing research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractRecent advances in data collection and data storage techniques enable marketing researchers to study the individual characteristics of a large range of transactions and purchases, in particular the effects of household-specific characteristics. This book presents the most important and

  18. An Empirical Assessment of the Relationship of Marketing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An Empirical Assessment of the Relationship of Marketing Communication Mix and Performance of ... Marketing efficiency of a communication mix as well as analyzing the effect of using a ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  19. Assessment of Perceived Corrupt Practices in Marketing of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of Perceived Corrupt Practices in Marketing of Agricultural Produce Among Women Marketers in Ogbomoso Agricultural of Oyo State, Nigeria. ... Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL ...

  20. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  1. Dynamic Model of Market with Uninformed Market Maker

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin; Kopa, Miloš

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 5 (2017), s. 922-958 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : market maker * optimal decision * price and inventory * high frequency data * dynamic model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2016 http://www.library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/smid-0483753.pdf

  2. K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review. ... Modelling has become a visible tool in many disciplines including marketing and several marketing models have ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  3. Assessing the Returns from Organic Marketing Channels

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Timothy A.

    2009-01-01

    Organic farmers face heightened pressure in developing a portfolio of different marketing channels and in bargaining competitively with increasingly sophisticated marketing participants in the supply chain for organic products. This research assists producers by identifying specific farm and demographic factors that enhance earnings given the choice of marketing outlet. The two significant selectivity coefficients confirm that organic earnings when marketing through a single outlet are biased...

  4. Beyond Needs Assessments: Marketing as Change Agent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piland, William E.

    1984-01-01

    Views marketing techniques as agents of change providing valuable assistance to community college decision makers. Discusses the importance of a balance among the four P's of marketing (i.e., promotion, price, place, and product); and seven procedural steps in developing a sound marketing strategy. (DMM)

  5. Emergent organization in a model market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Avinash Chand; Manchanda, Kaustubh; Ramaswamy, Ramakrishna

    2017-09-01

    We study the collective behaviour of interacting agents in a simple model of market economics that was originally introduced by Nørrelykke and Bak. A general theoretical framework for interacting traders on an arbitrary network is presented, with the interaction consisting of buying (namely consumption) and selling (namely production) of commodities. Extremal dynamics is introduced by having the agent with least profit in the market readjust prices, causing the market to self-organize. In addition to examining this model market on regular lattices in two-dimensions, we also study the cases of random complex networks both with and without community structures. Fluctuations in an activity signal exhibit properties that are characteristic of avalanches observed in models of self-organized criticality, and these can be described by power-law distributions when the system is in the critical state.

  6. Customer premises services market demand assessment 1980 - 2000: Volume 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamble, R. B.; Saporta, L.; Heidenrich, G. A.

    1983-01-01

    Potential customer premises service (CPS), telecommunication services, potential CPS user classes, a primary research survey, comparative economics, market demand forcasts, distance distribution of traffic, segmentation of market demand, and a nationwide traffic distribution model are discussed.

  7. Power system models - A description of power markets and outline of market modelling in Wilmar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, P.; Morthors, P.E.; Nielsen, L.H.; Weber, C.; Snader, K.; Swider, D.; Ravn, H.

    2003-12-01

    This report is Deliverable 3.2 of the Wilmar project. The report describes the power markets in the Nordic countries and Germany, together with the market models to be implemented in the Wilmar Planning model-ling tool developed in the project. (au)

  8. On the Use of Structural Equation Models in Marketing Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenkamp, J.E.B.M.; Baumgartner, H.

    2000-01-01

    We reflect on the role of structural equation modeling (SEM) in marketing modeling and managerial decision making. We discuss some benefits provided by SEM and alert marketing modelers to several recent developments in SEM in three areas: measurement analysis, analysis of cross-sectional data, and

  9. Social Filters in Assessing Higher Education Services Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shkurkin, Anatoly; Lutsenko, Ekaterina; Bazhenova, Natalia; Bazhenov, Ruslan; Bogachenko, Natalia

    2016-01-01

    The main goal of this work is to reveal social filters in the system of assessing the higher education services market. On the basis of the institutional interpretation of market relations, mechanisms and features of asymmetries formation in the educational services market are investigated. The role of the institutional environment ensuring…

  10. Modeling market power in Korea's emerging power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Nam-sung; Niemeyer, Victor

    2007-01-01

    The Korean power market is being formed from the unbundled generation, transmission and distribution assets of Korea Electric Power Corporation. The KEPCO generation has been allocated to six independent gencos with a combined generating capacity of 46,629 MW in 2002. This gave an 11% margin over the peak load that year (41,921 MW). One of the concerns for any power market is whether individual participants can increase profits (and prices) by withholding generation from the market. To address this concern, a Cournot-based model of Korean power system was created and applied to a set of loads representing the load duration curve for Korea's system loads in 2002. Our simulation results show a strong possibility for exercise of market power to increase market price in Korean market. Under tight market conditions, even 1 GW of withholding can cause a large increase in market price. If loads unexpectedly grow faster than the 5% recent experience, the gencos will have the collective ability and incentive to spike prices further. Vesting contracts can reduce the incentive to act strategically. Requiring that the gencos offer 50% of their capacity in long-term forward contracts greatly reduces the payoff to act strategically, and requiring vesting for 75% of their capacity results in prices that are essentially the same as the competitive equilibrium. Depending on the price for the vesting contracts, this policy can reduce the incentives to add new generation by gencos or the competitive fringe. Another approach to reducing the effects of market power is establishing demand-response programs, simulated here by increasing the elasticity of overall demand. These programs can reduce the incentives to withhold capacity, but to a lesser degree than vesting contracts. The genco with the greatest ability to influence prices through withholding is the largest, KNHP. However, acting on its own, without the support of the other gencos, its ability to raise prices is limited. This

  11. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  12. Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    JS Armstrong; Randall L. Schultz

    2005-01-01

    We examined nine marketing textbooks, published since 1927, to see if they contained useful marketing principles. Four doctoral students found 566 normative statements about pricing, product, place, or promotion in these texts. None of these stateinents were supported by empirical evidence. Four raters agreed on only twenty of these 566 statements as providing meaningful principles. Twenty marketing professors rated whether the twenty meaningful principles were correct, supported by empirical...

  13. Hydropower in Turkey: potential and market assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-10-15

    The Turkish hydropower market provides huge opportunities for investors and suppliers. Successful market entry is not easy, however, as the market is still not fully liberalized, the need for local intelligence is large and the competition is increasing. There are also potential political, reputational and environmental risks, typical for an emerging economy. The World Bank global 'Ease of doing business' ranking (2010), ranks Turkey as number 73 of 183 countries. (Author)

  14. COLUMBUS. A global gas market model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

    2012-03-15

    A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas flows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is modelled using a hub-and-spoke approach. While in the basic version of the model an inelastic demand and a piecewise-linear supply function are used, both can be changed easily, e.g. to a Golombek style production function or a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand function. Due to the usage of mixed complementary programming (MCP) the model additionally allows for the simulation of strategic behaviour of different players in the gas market, e.g. the gas producers.

  15. Biogas and Hydrogen Systems Market Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milbrandt, Anelia [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bush, Brian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, Marc [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-03-31

    This analysis provides an overview of the market for biogas-derived hydrogen and its use in transportation applications. It examines the current hydrogen production technologies from biogas, capacity and production, infrastructure, potential and demand, as well as key market areas. It also estimates the production cost of hydrogen from biogas and provides supply curves at a national level and at point source.

  16. THE BERTRAND MODEL OF THE SINGLE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadasan Ioana

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Starting with the signification of the rationality hypothesis when the agent’s contentment is directly affected by the other agents’ decisions, the theory of games defines solutions for solving different situations of conflict. The economic actors have different behaviours of the Single Market. Oligopoly strategic behaviours were analysed by the Bertrand model. The two types revealed in the work show that strategic interactions are sensitive to the companies’ features, products and markets. Regarding the situation when we have an oligopoly competition, the companies make interdependent decisions in the environment affected by risk and uncertainty of the Single Market. For this reason it is an opportunity to study the structure of oligopoly type of of the Single Market with the aid of non – cooperative games.

  17. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  18. Synthesised model of market orientation-business performance relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Nwokah

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation. While much empirical works have centered on market orientation, the generalisability of its impact on performance of the Food and Beverages organisations in the Nigeria context has been under-researched. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study adopted a triangulation methodology (quantitative and qualitative approach. Data was collected from key informants using a research instrument. Returned instruments were analyzed using nonparametric correlation through the use of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 10. Findings: The study validated the earlier instruments but did not find any strong association between market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context using the food and beverages organisations for the study. The reasons underlying the weak relationship between market orientation and business performance of the Food and Beverages organisations is government policies, new product development, diversification, innovation and devaluation of the Nigerian currency. One important finding of this study is that market orientation leads to business performance through some moderating variables. Implications: The study recommends that Nigerian Government should ensure a stable economy and make economic policies that will enhance existing business development in the country. Also, organisations should have performance measurement systems to detect the impact of investment on market orientation with the aim of knowing how the organisation works. Originality/Value: This study significantly refines the body of knowledge concerning the impact of market orientation on the performance of the organisation, and thereby offers a model of market orientation and business performance in the Nigerian context for marketing scholars and practitioners. This model will, no doubt, contribute to the body of

  19. Neural Networks Modelling of Municipal Real Estate Market Rent Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muczyński Andrzej

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of research on the application of neural networks modelling of municipal real estate market rent rates. The test procedure was based on selected networks trained on the local real estate market data and transformation of the detected dependencies – through established models – to estimate the potential market rent rates of municipal premises. On this basis, the assessment of the adequacy of the actual market rent rates of municipal properties was made. Empirical research was conducted on the local real estate market of the city of Olsztyn in Poland. In order to describe the phenomenon of market rent rates formation an unidirectional three-layer network and a network of radial base was selected. Analyses showed a relatively low degree of convergence of the actual municipal rent rents with potential market rent rates. This degree was strongly varied depending on the type of business ran on the property and its’ social and economic impact. The applied research methodology and the obtained results can be used in order to rationalize municipal property management, including the activation of rental policy.

  20. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

  1. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M Wray

    Full Text Available Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space, and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space, numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock

  2. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the

  3. NEO-AMERICAN MARKET ECONOMY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiriţescu Dorel-Dumitru

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The American market economy system is the convergence point of two theoretical models: the neoclassic model (which excludes the state intervention and keynesist model (in which the state intervenes as decisional economic agent. the relaunch of American economy set off at the end of the last century in the same time with Ronald Reagan presidency and relies on a important financial and technological patrimony.

  4. An assessment of the national labour market

    OpenAIRE

    Erik Walch

    2001-01-01

    In the framework of its participation in the decision-making process of the single monetary policy, the BCL, among other things, needs to analyse the national economy. Different parts of this paper address different audiences: in order to expose to the general and non-expert public why central banks are interested in labour markets, the first section begins with the basic link between monetary policy and labour markets. The discussion reviews the arguments indicating that in the long run a lo...

  5. Consumer Behaviour Model on the Furniture Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BEDNÁRIK, Éva

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces the furniture purchasing behaviour model. The study describes thebehaviour model and characteristics of decision making and the environmental factors affecting theindividuals besides emphasising the family character of furniture purchase. We introduce a chapterfrom the primary research verifying the model that analyses the validity of customer behaviour trendsdefined as elements of the impersonal environment on the furniture market. We touch on our lifestylebased segmentation model which is elaborated in our work in detail. The method of primary researchis quantitative, personal interview. While working out our research model we applied a method thatenables multi-level cross-section and cohort analyses. Our work has verified the need for trendresearches on the furniture market so we suggest the construction and the near-future launch of a trendresearch system consisting of several modules that reveals the specific factors on the furniture marketbesides verifying the validity of general behaviour trends.

  6. Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choustova, Olga Al.

    2007-01-01

    We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

  7. Model instruments of effective segmentation of the fast food market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mityaeva Tetyana L.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The article presents results of optimisation step-type calculations of economic effectiveness of promotion of fast food with consideration of key parameters of assessment of efficiency of the marketing strategy of segmentation. The article justifies development of a mathematical model on the bases of 3D-presentations and three-dimensional system of management variables. The modern applied mathematical packages allow formation not only of one-dimensional and two-dimensional arrays and analyse links of variables, but also of three-dimensional, besides, the more links and parameters are taken into account, the more adequate and adaptive are results of modelling and, as a result, more informative and strategically valuable. The article shows modelling possibilities that allow taking into account strategies and reactions on formation of the marketing strategy under conditions of entering the fast food market segments.

  8. An adaptive stochastic model for financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernández, Juan Antonio; Benito, Rosa Marı´a; Losada, Juan Carlos

    2012-01-01

    An adaptive stochastic model is introduced to simulate the behavior of real asset markets. The model adapts itself by changing its parameters automatically on the basis of the recent historical data. The basic idea underlying the model is that a random variable uniformly distributed within an interval with variable extremes can replicate the histograms of asset returns. These extremes are calculated according to the arrival of new market information. This adaptive model is applied to the daily returns of three well-known indices: Ibex35, Dow Jones and Nikkei, for three complete years. The model reproduces the histograms of the studied indices as well as their autocorrelation structures. It produces the same fat tails and the same power laws, with exactly the same exponents, as in the real indices. In addition, the model shows a great adaptation capability, anticipating the volatility evolution and showing the same volatility clusters observed in the assets. This approach provides a novel way to model asset markets with internal dynamics which changes quickly with time, making it impossible to define a fixed model to fit the empirical observations.

  9. The Influence of Investor Number on a Microscopic Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellthaler, T.

    The stock market model of Levy, Persky, Solomon is simulated for much larger numbers of investors. While small markets can lead to realistically looking prices, the resulting prices of large markets oscillate smoothly in a semi-regular fashion.

  10. A marketing model: applications for dietetic professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, S C; Moody, D L

    1986-01-01

    Traditionally, dietitians have communicated the availability of their services to the "public at large." The expectation was that the public would respond favorably to nutrition programs simply because there was a consumer need for them. Recently, however, both societal and consumer needs have changed dramatically, making old communication strategies ineffective and obsolete. The marketing discipline has provided a new model and new decision-making tools for many health professionals to use to more effectively make their services known to multiple consumer groups. This article provides one such model as applied to the dietetic profession. The model explores a definition of the business of dietetics, how to conduct an analysis of the environment, and, finally, the use of both in the choice of new target markets. Further, the model discusses the major components of developing a marketing strategy that will help the practitioner to be competitive in the marketplace. Presented are strategies for defining and re-evaluating the mission of the profession, for using future trends to identify new markets and roles for the profession, and for developing services that make the profession more competitive by better meeting the needs of the consumer.

  11. Methods of Modelling Marketing Activity on Software Sales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashirov Islam H.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article studies a topical issue of development of methods of modelling marketing activity on software sales for achievement of efficient functioning of an enterprise. On the basis of analysis of the market type for the studied CloudLinux OS product, the article identifies the market structure type: monopolistic competition. To ensure the information basis of the marketing activity in the target market segment, the article offers the survey method. The article provides a questionnaire, which contains specific questions regarding the studied market segment of hosting services, for an online survey with the help of the Survio service. In accordance with the system approach the CloudLinux OS has properties of systems, namely, diversity. Economic differences are non-price indicators that have no numeric expression and are quality descriptions. Analysis of the market and the conducted survey allow obtaining them. Combination of price and non-price indicators provides a complete description of the product properties. To calculate an integral indicator of competitiveness the article offers to apply a model, which is based on the direct algebraic addition of weight measures of individual indicators, regulation of formalised indicators and use of the mechanism of fuzzy sets for identification of non-formalised indicators. The calculated indicator allows not only assessment of the current level of competitiveness, but also identification of influence of changes of various indicators, which allows increase of efficiency of marketing decisions. Also, having identified the target customers of hosting OS and formalised non-price parameters, it is possible to conduct the search for a set of optimal characteristics of the product. In the result an optimal strategy of the product advancement to the market is formed.

  12. Electricity market reforms: Institutional developments, investment dynamics and game modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineau, Pierre-Olivier

    advanced to support market reforms and an industry view of the actual strategic actions undertaken by important utilities. Legislative changes will be reviewed for different countries with a discussion on the assessment procedures for these reforms. A detailed example of the reform process in the Finnish electricity market is presented. The investment issue will emerge as an interesting challenge to focus on, due to its importance for the market. The second approach is more analytical and develops on the market equilibria that could result from the new structure. A dynamic model of investment for the electricity market is built and applied to the Finnish market. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

  13. Natural gas market assessment: Price convergence in North American natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-12-01

    The extent to which Canadian and U.S. natural gas markets have become integrated in the post-deregulation era was assessed. This assessment was accomplished through a statistical analysis of the price movements in Canadian and U.S. gas markets. The analysis pointed to three broad conclusions: (1) on the whole, there has been an increasing degree of integration among North American natural gas markets since price deregulation and the introduction of open access, (2) there is somewhat of a split between eastern and western markets, (3) Alberta's links are stronger with the western U.S. natural gas market than with the market in the eastern U.S. Several factors were cited as contributing to the general increase in market integration, including: (1) increased pipeline capacity and additional pipeline interconnections, coupled with the development of market hubs, (2) improved flexibility of access to pipeline transportation services, (3) improved access to market information and greater trading flexibility which has been facilitated by growing use of electronic bulletin boards and electronic trading systems. The increased market integration was claimed to have benefited both consumers and producers, and to have increased competition in both countries.. 28 refs., 14 figs

  14. Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Elina Bakhtieva

    2017-01-01

    The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap...

  15. Modelling Danish local CHP on market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Hans V.; Riisom, Jannik; Schaumburg-Müller, Camilla

    2004-01-01

    with the liberalisation process of the energy sectors of the EU countries, it is however anticipated that Danish local CHP are to begin operating on market conditions within the year 2005. This means that the income that the local CHPs previously gained from selling electricity at the feed-in tariff is replaced in part...... the consequences of acting in a liberalised market for a given CHP plant, based on the abovementioned bottom-up model. The key assumption determining the bottom line is the electricity spot price. The formation of the spot price in the Nordic area depends heavily upon the state of the water reservoirs in Norway...

  16. Model of Market Share Affected by Social Media Reputation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Akira; Kawahata, Yasuko; Goto, Ujo

    Proposal of market theory to put the effect of social media into account is presented in this paper. The standard market share model in economics is employed as a market theory and the effect of social media is considered quantitatively using the mathematical model for hit phenomena. Using this model, we can estimate the effect of social media in market share as a simple market model simulation using our proposed method.

  17. Nuclear hydrogen: An assessment of product flexibility and market viability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Yildiz, Bilge; Conzelmann, Guenter; Petri, Mark C.

    2008-01-01

    Nuclear energy has the potential to play an important role in the future energy system as a large-scale source of hydrogen without greenhouse gas emissions. Thus far, economic studies of nuclear hydrogen tend to focus on the levelized cost of hydrogen without accounting for the risks and uncertainties that potential investors would face. We present a financial model based on real options theory to assess the profitability of different nuclear hydrogen production technologies in evolving electricity and hydrogen markets. The model uses Monte Carlo simulations to represent uncertainty in future hydrogen and electricity prices. It computes the expected value and the distribution of discounted profits from nuclear hydrogen production plants. Moreover, the model quantifies the value of the option to switch between hydrogen and electricity production, depending on what is more profitable to sell. We use the model to analyze the market viability of four potential nuclear hydrogen technologies and conclude that flexibility in output product is likely to add significant economic value for an investor in nuclear hydrogen. This should be taken into account in the development phase of nuclear hydrogen technologies

  18. Limited Commitment Models of the Labour Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan Thomas; Tim Worrall

    2007-01-01

    We present an overview of models of long-term self-enforcing labour con- tracts in which risk-sharing is the dominant motive for contractual solutions. A base model is developed which is sufficiently general to encompass the two-agent problem central to most of the literature, including variable hours. We consider two-sided limited commitment and look at its implications for aggregate labour market variables. We consider the implications for empirical testing and the available empirical evide...

  19. Bioaccessibility, dietary exposure and human risk assessment of heavy metals from market vegetables in Hong Kong revealed with an in vitro gastrointestinal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junli; Wu, Fuyong; Wu, Shengchun; Cao, Zhihong; Lin, Xiangui; Wong, Ming Hung

    2013-04-01

    A systematic survey of heavy metal (HM) concentrations and bioaccessibilities in market vegetables in Hong Kong were carried out for assessing potential health risk to local inhabitants. The average concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Zn in nine major groups of fresh vegetable varied within 0.007-0.053, 0.05-0.17, 0.05-0.24, 0.26-1.1, 0.62-3.0, and 0.96-4.3 mg kg(-1), respectively, and their average bioaccessibilities varied within 21-96%, 20-68%, 24-62%, 29-64%, 30-77%, and 69-94%, respectively. The bioaccessible estimated daily intakes (BEDIs) of Cd, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cu, and Zn from vegetables were far below the tolerable limits. The total bioaccessible target hazard quotient (TBTHQ) of the six HMs was 0.18 and 0.64 for average and high consumers, respectively, with Cd and leafy vegetable being the major risk contributors. Risk assessment of HMs from foods should be modified by taking bioaccessibility into account. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Market Assessment and Commercialization Strategy for the Radial Sandia Cooler

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goetzler, William [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Shandross, Richard [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Weintraub, Daniel [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Burlington, MA (United States); Young, Jim [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Burlington, MA (United States)

    2014-02-01

    This market assessment and commercialization report characterizes and assesses the market potential of the rotating heat exchanger technology developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), known as the Radial Sandia Cooler. The RSC is a novel, motor-driven, rotating, finned heat exchanger technology. The RSC was evaluated for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation markets. Recommendations for commercialization were made based on assessments of the prototype RSC and the Sandia Cooler technology in general, as well as an in-depth analysis of the six most promising products for initial RSC commercialization.

  1. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

  2. Assessing unilateral merger effects in a two-sided market : An application to the Dutch daily newspaper market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filistrucchi, L.; Klein, T.J.; Michielsen, T.O.

    2012-01-01

    We compare different methods to assess unilateral merger effects in a two-sided market by applying them to a hypothetical merger in the Dutch newspaper industry. We first specify and estimate a structural model of demand for differentiated products in both the readership and the advertising sides of

  3. Assessing Unilateral Merger Effects in a Two-Sided Market : An Application to the Dutch Daily Newspaper Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filistrucchi, L.; Klein, T.J.; Michielsen, T.O.

    2011-01-01

    We compare different methods to assess unilateral merger effects in a two-sided market by applying them to a hypothetical merger in the Dutch newspaper industry. For this, we first specify and estimate a structural model of demand for differentiated products on both the readership and the

  4. Comparative bioequivalence assessment of aspirin tablets marketed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: In the last few years, aspirin has become a life saver against cardiovascular accidents. This investigation was carried out to determine possible bioequivalence between regular aspirin and soluble aspirin tablets marketed in Nigeria. Methods: The in vivo bioavailability profiles of three commercial brands of aspirin ...

  5. An assessment of the industrial markets for softwood clearwood lumber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan L. Eastin; Christine L. Lane; Roger D. Fight; Jamie Barbour

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to assess market opportunities for second growth clearwood lumber by identifying industry segments that currently utilize clearwood lumber and determining whether alternative markets will continue to exist for clearwood lumber produced from intensively managed forests in the Pacific Northwest. A survey of industrial lumber...

  6. Low-e Storm Windows: Market Assessment and Pathways to Market Transformation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cort, Katherine A.

    2013-06-08

    Field studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have shown that the use of low-e storm windows can lead to significant heating and cooling energy savings in residential homes. This study examines the market for low-e storm windows based on market data, case studies, and recent experience with weatherization deployment programs. It uses information from interviews conducted with DOE researchers and industry partners involved in case studies and early deployment efforts related to low-e storm windows. In addition, this study examines potential barriers to market acceptance, assesses the market and energy savings potential, and identifies opportunities to transform the market for low-e storm windows and overcome market adoption barriers.

  7. Marketing communications model for innovation networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago João Freitas Correia

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Innovation is an increasingly relevant concept for the success of any organization, but it also represents a set of internal and external considerations, barriers and challenges to overcome. Along the concept of innovation, new paradigms emerge such as open innovation and co-creation that are simultaneously innovation modifiers and intensifiers in organizations, promoting organizational openness and stakeholder integration within the value creation process. Innovation networks composed by a multiplicity of agents in co-creative work perform as innovation mechanisms to face the increasingly complexity of products, services and markets. Technology, especially the Internet, is an enabler of all process among organizations supported by co-creative platforms for innovation. The definition of marketing communication strategies that promote motivation and involvement of all stakeholders in synergic creation and external promotion is the central aspect of this research. The implementation of the projects is performed by participative workshops with stakeholders from Madan Parque through IDEAS(REVOLUTION methodology and the operational model LinkUp parameterized for the project. The project is divided into the first part, the theoretical framework, and the second part where a model is developed for the marketing communication strategies that appeal to the Madan Parque case study. Keywords: Marketing Communication; Open Innovation, Technology; Innovation Networks; Incubator; Co-Creation.

  8. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    OpenAIRE

    Gutić Dragutin; Rudelj Siniša

    2009-01-01

    Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introdu...

  9. Assessing the market power due to the network constraints in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bompard, E.; Ma, Y.C.; Napoli, R.; Jiang, C.W.

    2006-01-01

    The physical and operational constraints of the network pose very specific problems to market power analysis in the oligopolistic electricity markets. This paper presents a direct analytical approach to find the market equilibrium based on a supply function game model. The model is exploited to undertake a sensitivity analysis of the producer surplus with reference to the line flow limits under a DC power flow model for network representation. Two different kinds of indices, that can capture the market power arising under network constraints, are proposed. The first set of indices is the location privilege (LP), that measure the effect of the generators positioning in the grid on their surplus under perfect competition. The second set is for the network market power (NMP) indices that take into account the strategic behaviors of the producers that may take advantage of the congestion of the transmission lines. The indices allow for a ranking of the lines in terms of the market power they can induce and, in this respect, they may help the market regulator to focus on the network weakness in terms of the possible market outcomes under the market power behaviors from the supply side. The application of the proposed indices is illustrated with reference to the IEEE 30-bus test system. (author)

  10. An assessment of public transportation markets using NHTS data : [summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    In 2007, the American Public Transportation : Association (APTA) assessed public transit markets : in a national study published as A Profile of Public : Transportation Passenger Demographics and Travel : Characteristics Reported in On-Board Surveys....

  11. An assessment of public transportation markets using NHTS data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    In 2007, the American Public Transportation : Association (APTA) assessed public transit markets : in a national study published as A Profile of Public : Transportation Passenger Demographics and Travel : Characteristics Reported in On-Board Surveys....

  12. Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Wierenga, Berend

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of whether they could be solved with a known OR technique. The field of marketing models developed its own identity and became an important academic field (Wierenga 2008b). Somewhat later the term "marke...

  13. On modelling the market for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiesen, Lars

    2001-12-01

    Several features may separately or in combination influence conduct and performance of an industry, e.g. the numbers of sellers or buyers, the degree of economies of scale in production and distribution, the temporal and spatial dimensions, etc. Our main focus is on how to model market power. In particular, we demonstrate the rather different solutions obtained from the price-taking behavior versus the oligopolistic Coumot behavior. We also consider two approaches to model the transportation of natural gas. Finally, there is a brief review of previous modeling efforts of the European natural gas industry. (author)

  14. Low head hydro market assessment : main report : vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-03-01

    Hydroelectric power is a predictable renewable energy source that produces no greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has low maintenance costs. In addition to river resources, low head hydro is available in sluice gates, irrigation canals, drinking water pressure release valves, and municipal wastewater outfalls. Canada's potential for low head hydro has been estimated at 5000 MW at 2000 different sites across the country. Sites of up to 50 MW have been identified in Ontario and Manitoba. This study performed a market assessment on low head hydro developments. Available and emerging technologies for developing low head hydro were identified. The economics of low head hydro in Canada were explored, and barriers to low head hydro development were identified. Strategies to promote low head hydro development were also explored, and the impact of different incentive types on the low head hydropower market were estimated using a simple economic model. It was concluded that a reduced, streamlined, and standardized environmental assessment process will significantly benefit low head hydro development in Canada. 5 refs., 14 tabs., 17 figs

  15. A modelling breakthrough for market design analysis to test massive intermittent generation integration in markets results of selected OPTIMATE studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaude, Francois; Atayi, A.; Bourmaud, J.-Y.

    2013-01-01

    The OPTIMATE1 platform focuses on electricity system and market designs modelling in order to assess current and innovative designs in Europe. The current paper describes the results of the first validation studies' conducted with the tool. These studies deal with day-ahead market rules, load...... flexibility, cross-border management and intermittent renewable support schemes with a view to better integrating large amounts of renewable energy in Europe. Market and system designs were assessed based on economic efficiency, security of supply2 and environmental impact3 indicators. These results give...

  16. A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Nazos, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Stochastic MILP model for the optimal energy planning of a power system. •Power market dynamics (offers/bids) are incorporated in the proposed model. •Monte Carlo method for capturing the uncertainty of some key parameters. •Analytical supply cost composition per power producer and activity. •Clean dark and spark spreads are calculated for each power unit. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.

  17. Modeling of a green certificate market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchenko, O.V.

    2008-01-01

    The paper considers one of the economic mechanisms, stimulating the introduction of renewable energy sources (RES) - a green certificate market. A mathematical model was developed to describe a supply and demand balance in the electricity and green certificate markets simultaneously. The sellers of certificates are RES owners, who obtain certificates for each unit of electricity produced, and the buyers are consumers, who are obliged by law to buy a certain share of this electricity. Equilibrium structures of the power system including RES with stochastic operation conditions are calculated. The prices of electricity and certificates, as well as the total economic effect of the system are determined taking into account external costs (environmental damages). The paper shows that a mechanism of green certificates is not an ideal means for minimizing the impact of energy on the environment: the economic effect turns out to be smaller than the maximum possible one. However, this deviation is relatively small, therefore the green certificate market allows the external effects to be partially taken into account. Such a market creates incentives for investors, electricity producers and consumers to make power sources mix, modes of electricity production and consumption closer to the optimum ones in terms of the economy as a whole. (author)

  18. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samanidou, E [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany); Zschischang, E [HSH Nord Bank, Portfolio Mngmt. and Inv., Martensdamm 6, D-24103 Kiel (Germany); Stauffer, D [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Cologne University, D-50923 Koeln (Germany); Lux, T [Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel (Germany)

    2007-03-15

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we

  19. Agent-based models of financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanidou, E.; Zschischang, E.; Stauffer, D.; Lux, T.

    2007-03-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  20. Agent-based models of financial markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanidou, E; Zschischang, E; Stauffer, D; Lux, T

    2007-01-01

    This review deals with several microscopic ('agent-based') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power law with index around three), it became clear that financial market dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling law. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting sub-units, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic has been pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavours of multi-agent models that have appeared up to now, we discuss the Cont

  1. Decision Support Systems as the Bridge between Marketing Models and Marketing Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe field of marketing decision models emerged about fifty years ago. In the beginning, optimization techniques from the field of Operations Research (OR) were dominant, but soon, the modeling of marketing phenomena and marketing problems became interesting in itself, irrespective of

  2. Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

  3. Market Segmentation Using Bayesian Model Based Clustering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hattum, P.

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation deals with two basic problems in marketing, that are market segmentation, which is the grouping of persons who share common aspects, and market targeting, which is focusing your marketing efforts on one or more attractive market segments. For the grouping of persons who share

  4. An assessment of food hygiene and safety at farmers' markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worsfold, D; Worsfold, P M; Griffith, C J

    2004-04-01

    Farmers' markets are becoming a more significant part of the food-retailing sector. A survey of farmers' markets was conducted to assess aspects of food hygiene and safety. The views of the public using the markets were also examined. The range of farm products was wide and the methods utilised varied. The markets were usually temporary outdoor events with few facilities. Traders had received elementary food hygiene training and rated their hygiene standards highly. Less than half had risk management procedures in place, most did not perceive their produce as high-risk. They believed consumers to be mainly interested in food quality and to regard food safety issues highly. Consumers shopped at the markets because of the quality of the products sold. Their overall satisfaction with the markets was high and they raised no concerns about food safety. Given the restricted facilities at farmers' markets and the early phase of implementation of hygiene management systems by market traders, it may be precautionary to restrict the sale of farm products at farmers markets to those that are regarded as low-risk.

  5. Assessments of the market prospects for Myanmar timber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tin-Maung-Win

    2001-08-01

    Myanmar has been exporting teak and hardwood logs and conversions for a long time. It is found that there are three types of market situations with regard to logs and conversions. They are: situation that the demand of the market is strong; situation that the market has just picked up; situation that the demand is sluggish. Countries where the demand is strong are India, Thailand and Malaysia. Countries where the market is picking up are Singapore, PRC and the Middle East. Similarly, Europe's market is on the rise. Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Pakistan markets are sluggish temporarily. North America's market can be said to be sluggish too. It is found that Australia has not been buying timber directly from Myanmar for the last few years and that it may not be in a position to buy Myanmar teak voluminously in the near future either. This paper is therefore a report focused on Myanmar Timber Enterprises' endeavour to earn foreign exchange in US Dollars and its assessment and evaluation of the market. The international market situation is studied and each country's situation focused on and presented. (author)

  6. Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Xiaolian

    2013-01-01

    Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

  7. Solar energy market penetration models - Science or number mysticism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, E. H., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The forecast market potential of a solar technology is an important factor determining its R&D funding. Since solar energy market penetration models are the method used to forecast market potential, they have a pivotal role in a solar technology's development. This paper critiques the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models. It is argued that the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.

  8. Model instruments of effective segmentation of the fast food market

    OpenAIRE

    Mityaeva Tetyana L.

    2013-01-01

    The article presents results of optimisation step-type calculations of economic effectiveness of promotion of fast food with consideration of key parameters of assessment of efficiency of the marketing strategy of segmentation. The article justifies development of a mathematical model on the bases of 3D-presentations and three-dimensional system of management variables. The modern applied mathematical packages allow formation not only of one-dimensional and two-dimensional arrays and analyse ...

  9. Documentation of the Uranium Market Model (UMM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The Uranium Market Model is used to make projections of activity in the US uranium mining and milling industry. The primary data sources were EIA, the Nuclear Assurance Corporation, and, to a lesser extent, Nuexco and Nuclear Resources International. The Uranium Market Model is a microeconomic simulation model in which uranium supplied by the mining and milling industry is provided to meet the demand for uranium by electric utilities with nuclear power plants. Uranium is measured on a U 3 O 8 (uranium oxide) equivalent basis. The model considers every major production center and utility on a worldwide basis (with Centrally Planned Economies considered in a limited way), and makes annual projections for each major uranium production and consumption region in the world. Typically, nine regions are used: the United States, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Other Africa, Europe, Latin America, the Far East, and Other. Production centers and utilities are identified as being in one of these regions. In general, the model can accommodate any user-provided set of regional definitions and data

  10. Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najmudin Najmudin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Development of financial globalization in the form of stock market integration experiences a trend which is getting stronger. The analysis models in the field of finance and investments should be able to adjust to these developments. This adjustment includes the models used to detect the existence of herding behavior. All this time, the herding behavior model of individual stocks towards market consensus has been referring to CAPM theory. The basic assumption of CAPM is that financial assets at a domestic stock market are segmented from the financial assets’ movement at the global market. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an alternative view in the form of an international herding model that should be applied in the context of an integrated stock market. The model was created with reference to the international CAPM. This paper combined ICAPM method and international CSAD model to identify herding for eight stock markets, the sample period being from January 2003 to December 2016. The result found that for segmented stock markets, represented by China and the Philippines, herding happened for both overall the sample period and the market crisis period. In addition, for the integrated stock markets, represented by Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the UK, herding behavior was only found during the market crisis period. Therefore, classification of market integrations should be considered in assessing the herding behaviour at stock markets.

  11. China Oil and Gas Market Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Yu

    2004-08-01

    China, with one-fifth of the world's population and one of the fastest rates of economic growth, is experiencing a boom in its energy requirements. China has been identified as a high priority market for the oil and gas sector. This priority has resulted in the high level of investment and many large-scale projects related to the oil and gas industry. Oil production from existing fields is expected to increase, new oil and gas fields will be developed, and the country's oil and gas transmission infrastructure will be extended to meet domestic demands. In addition, total domestic investment needs for the next three decades till 2030 are estimated at around $119 billion, and upstream exploration and development will account for about $69 billion. China's oil and gas exploitation business has been the biggest beneficiary of the bearish crude oil prices, national oil stockpile and the need of infrastructure. In the first six-month period of 2005, this industry has gained a profit of USD16.5 billion, up 73.4 per cent year-on-year. The country is becoming increasingly open to international oil companies, contractors and equipment suppliers, who can bring advanced technology, equipment, and management experience. In this context, considerable opportunities in the supply and service sectors are open to Dutch companies. This report analyses the present situation and market prospect of China upstream oil and gas industry, including: Current status of Chinese oil and gas industry analysis and future development forecast; Potential customers analysis, such as three stated-owned oil companies and their foreign partners;Domestic and foreign competitors analysis; Potential opportunities and challenges analysis; Providing contacts and information on main ongoing oil exploration and development projects, and business practices

  12. CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Burtnyak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

  13. Language Implications for Advertising in International Markets: A Model for Message Content and Message Execution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beard, John; Yaprak, Attila

    A content analysis model for assessing advertising themes and messages generated primarily for United States markets to overcome barriers in the cultural environment of international markets was developed and tested. The model is based on three primary categories for generating, evaluating, and executing advertisements: rational, emotional, and…

  14. Market assessment of tuberculosis diagnostics in India in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maheshwari, P; Chauhan, K; Kadam, R; Pujani, A; Kaur, M; Chitalia, M; Dabas, H; Perkins, M D; Boehme, C C; Denkinger, C M; Raizada, N; Ginnard, J; Jefferson, C; Pantoja, A; Rupert, S; Kik, S V; Cohen, C; Chedore, P; Satyanarayana, S; Pai, M

    2016-03-01

    India represents a significant potential market for new tests. We assessed India's market for tuberculosis (TB) diagnostics in 2013. Test volumes and unit costs were assessed for tuberculin tests, interferon-gamma release assays, sputum smear microscopy, serology, culture, speciation testing, nucleic-acid amplification tests (i.e., in-house polymerase chain reaction, Xpert(®) MTB/RIF, line-probe assays) and drug susceptibility testing. Data from the public sector were collected from the Revised National TB Control Programme reports. Private sector data were collected through a survey of private laboratories and practitioners. Data were also collected from manufacturers. In 2013, India's public sector performed 19.2 million tests, with a market value of US$22.9 million. The private sector performed 13.6 million tests, with a market value of US$60.4 million when prices charged to the patient were applied. The overall market was US$70.8 million when unit costs from the ingredient approach were used for the 32.8 million TB tests performed in the entire country. Smear microscopy was the most common test performed, accounting for 25% of the overall market value. India's estimated market value for TB diagnostics in 2013 was US$70.8 million. These data should be of relevance to test developers, donors and implementers.

  15. Asynchronous Assessment in a Large Lecture Marketing Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, W. Scott; Schetzsle, Stacey

    2012-01-01

    Asynchronous assessment, which includes quizzes or exams online or outside class, offers marketing educators an opportunity to make more efficient use of class time and to enhance students' learning experiences by giving them more flexibility and choice in their assessment environment. In this paper, we examine the performance difference between…

  16. Assessment of market possibilities for solar cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Djukanovic, S. [Advanced School of Business Novi Sad (Czechoslovakia)

    2004-07-01

    Global heating increases profitability of solar energy application in the Balkans. The most important market segments for wider solar cells utilization in Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) are solar pumps for irrigation in agriculture, traffic lights, lighting of weekend houses, air-conditioning, telecommunications, electric vehicles, solar hydro-electric power plants, sports centers and schools and orthodox monasteries. In addition to these applications of solar modules of relatively high capacity, a wide scope of applications of mini solar modules in consumer goods is given serious consideration (flashlights, bicycle lights, fan caps, beach hats, solar parasols, toys for children, solar watches, minicomputers, walkmans and alike). In this paper is projected gradually increase of solar cells applications in Yugoslavia, from 772 kW in 2006., to 3,901 kW installed photovoltaic power in 2010. year. The largest parts of this projected 3.9 MW in 2010., ought to be solar pumps (498 kW), telecommunications (470 kW) and traffic lights (468 kW). (orig.)

  17. A model for marketing planning for new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1993-01-01

    awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development...... and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan....

  18. Social marketing for a farmer’s market in an underserved community: A needs assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meg Skizim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to assess local residents’ awareness of utilizing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP benefits to purchase fresh produce at local farmers’ markets, and to determine internet use and media preferences of study participants prior to implementation of a social marketing campaign. A needs assessment was conducted to collect baseline data in an underserved neighbourhood in New Orleans (LA, USA. The study was carried out August 2014-May 2015. The assessment revealed that 73% of the respondents were unaware that the SNAP benefits could be used to purchase food in farmers’ markets; 63% of low-income participants never attended a farmers’ market compared to 27% of mid/high-income. Over 50% of the low-income respondents have access to the internet at least once per day. The results show the potential of raising awareness among a wide range of members in the community. This needs assessment will serve as the foundation for a social marketing intervention, which will be disseminated city-wide.

  19. Modeling the effects of pharmaceutical marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wieringa, J.E.

    Successful innovation of prescription drugs requires a substantial amount of marketing support. There is, however, much concern about the effects of marketing expenditures on the demand of pharmaceutical products (Manchanda et al., Market Lett 16(3/4):293-308, 2005). For example, excessive marketing

  20. How Can Marketing Academics Serve Marketing Practice? The New Marketing DNA as a Model for Marketing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, Paul; Hulbert, Bev

    2011-01-01

    This article seeks to address how marketing academics can best serve marketing practice through marketing education. It is contended that, where technology is driving marketing in practice, it is afforded significantly less attention in both theory and education. Thus, the marketing graduates being produced from universities are often lacking in…

  1. Assessing welfare impact of entry into power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, In-Koo; Kim, Hyunsook

    2013-01-01

    This paper calculates the welfare impact of a new entrant based on the location of entry in the Korean electricity market. We use two different models. One is the optimal fuel mix model to estimate the effect of a new entry in the long run. The other is the variable cost minimization model to assess the contribution of an existing installed private generator in the short run. A specific private generator, which has a cost advantage, saves a substantial amount of system-wide variable costs. We show that the right location for a new entrant can save power generation costs significantly, even if a new entrant does not have a cost advantage. - Highlights: • This paper calculates the welfare impact of a new entrant based on the location of entry. • We use two different models to estimate the entry effect. • The minimum and maximum cost savings of a new entrant are about 0.3% and 0.84% of total generation cost. • Even if a new entrant has no cost advantage, its choice of location could save money

  2. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoufek, Ladislav; Vosvrda, Miloslav

    2018-01-01

    We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized facts such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model utility from the other side and look for the combination of parameters which yields return dynamics of the efficient market in the view of the efficient market hypothesis. Working with the Ising model, we are able to present nicely interpretable results as the model is based on only two parameters. Apart from showing the results of our simulation study, we offer a new interpretation of the Ising model parameters via inverse temperature and entropy. We show that in fact market frictions (to a certain level) and herding behavior of the market participants do not go against market efficiency but what is more, they are needed for the markets to be efficient.

  3. Assessments and market design for the water market at Xiying Irrigation, Shiyang River Basin, Gansu Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, T.; Zhao, J.; Zheng, H.

    2016-12-01

    As one of the pilot water markets in China, the market in Xiying Irrigation was built in 2008. Based on the historical trading data, it can be concluded that the studied market is growing but facing quite a few challenges. To solve these challenges, the first step we have done is assessment on the market. Some comparable indices were introduced from network science by us. These indices straightforwardly show the status and major problems in the market. One main problem we have found from surveys and our assessment is that there are barriers between distant seller and buyer. This discovery incentives us to develop a new mechanism for matching sellers and buyers to reduce the loss on social welfare. By modelling the trading barriers between a buyer and a seller as an indicator -- tradable or nontradable, the authors propose a mixed-integer linear programming algorithm to optimize the social welfare. According to the theories on competitive equilibrium, the authors are able to extend the programming to compute a reasonable price profile for each pair of tradable seller and buyer. It can be proved that given the price profile, the optimal strategy for each seller or buyer is to follow the optimal assignment. This mechanism significantly reduces the social welfare loss. However, this study shows that removing the trading barriers can brings more social welfare increments.

  4. SELECTED MODELS OF RAIL MARKETS IN THE CONTEXT OF LIBERALIZATION OF THE RAIL MARKET IN EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krystian Pietrzak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper author has made an attempt at presenting problems of the operation of European railway transport market against the background of changes taking place in the European Union transport market. These changes are the result of processes aimed at liberalizing the market. In addition, this article defines the conditions of reforms in the Eu-ropean rail market by highlighting various models of its functioning.

  5. Marketing Communications for Continuing Education: A Planning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicere, Albert A.

    1982-01-01

    This article presents a model for the formulation of marketing communications strategies geared both to efficiency in direct marketing efforts and effectiveness in the creation of individual program enrollments and institutional identity. (CT)

  6. Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria | Akarah ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conceptual Model for Effective Sports Marketing in Nigeria. ... that are influenced by the sports market mix and sports consumers that are influenced by psychological factors and notes that; ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  7. Outlook for electricity markets 2005-2006 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply of electricity as well as its demand in both domestic and export markets. This document was produced in response to a survey with power generation, transmission and distribution companies, marketers, end-users, environmental groups and government agencies who demonstrated the need for more short-and medium-term energy market assessments to supplement the Board's longer term energy analysis. It on the short-term (2005-2006) issues that can have a long-term effect on the electricity sector. The document presents an analysis of Canadian electricity markets with particular focus on the main drivers affecting current trends in generation, demand, prices, infrastructure additions, and inter-regional and international trade. Current restructuring activities in Canada's electricity industry were also described along with the close relationship between the electricity sectors in Canada and the United States which stems from the integrated nature of the North American power grid. A regional market assessment and a summary was provided for each of Canada's provinces and territories with reference to market structure and current market developments. It was revealed that Canada's electricity markets have developed along provincial or regional boundaries. Utilities have tried to provide adequate and reliable electricity supply, environmental sustainability and acceptable electricity prices. It was concluded that supply is adequate in all regions in the short-term, but tight supply conditions could emerge as early as 2007. Alternative and renewable resource and demand management are becoming more important in addressing air quality issues and supply adequacy. Since uncertainty may delay investment and development of new infrastructure, utilities may be forced to increase electricity prices. It was suggested that interprovincial energy transfers should be further explored. Five recommendations were presented to address the key

  8. Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

    2018-05-01

    In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

  9. Market assessment of tuberculosis diagnostics in Brazil in 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Improved diagnostics for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) are urgently needed. However, test developers and investors require market size data to support new product development. This study assessed the served available market for TB diagnostics in Brazil in 2012 and the market segmentation in the public and private sectors. Data were collected on test volumes done in the public and private sectors for the diagnosis of latent and active TB, drug susceptibility testing and treatment follow-up. Tests included were tuberculin skin tests, interferon-gamma releases assays, smear microscopy, solid and liquid cultures, nucleic acid amplification tests and phenotypic drug susceptibility tests. The data were collected by means of an electronic survey via the Brazilian State laboratories and from sales information provided by manufacturers. Test costs for the public sector were calculated using a components approach, while costs for the private sector were based on prices paid by patients. The overall market value (expenditure) for the entire country was calculated using the public sector test costs. During 2012, an estimated total of 2.4 million TB diagnostic tests were done in Brazil, resulting in an estimated overall market value of USD 17.2 million. The public sector accounted for 91% of the test volumes and 88% of the market value. Smear microscopy was the most commonly test (n = 1.3 million; 55% of total) at an estimated value of USD 3.7 million. Culture overall (n = 302,761) represented 13% of test volumes and 40% (USD 6.9 million) of the market value. On average, USD 208 was spent on TB diagnostics for every notified TB patient in Brazil, in 2012. The TB diagnostics market value in Brazil in 2012 was over USD 17 million. These study results will help test developers to understand the current and potential market for replacement or add-on diagnostic technologies.

  10. Empirical assessment of market power in the Alberta wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu, F.

    2007-01-01

    In the 1990s, many countries began to unbundle regulated electricity monopolies into generation, transmission, distribution and retail companies. Transmission and distribution services remained regulated, but generation and retail services were open for competition. Wholesale and retail electricity markets were created. This paper presented a newly developed competitiveness index specifically for the Alberta market through a simple and standard economic approach. The Alberta Electric Utilities Act came into effect in January 1996. This paper described how the Alberta wholesale electricity market works and demonstrated how to model market power in the electricity market. In this study, power generating companies in Alberta were divided into 2 groups. The first group contained the 5 largest firms called strategic firms, while the other group contained the small generating companies called non-strategic firms or the competitive fringe. In the sample years 2003 and 2004, strategic firms withheld capacity when price was above marginal cost and behaved within the range of competitive pricing. They were more likely to price competitively than to use unilateral market power prices. In addition, firms had higher price-cost margins during the off-peak season. This paper explained in detail the reason for this unusual off-peak pattern. The index to measure a firm's strategic behaviour in the Alberta electricity market was developed according to price-cost margin data where firm-behaviour effect was distinguished from the demand-elasticity effect. It was concluded that policy-makers and regulations should consider the magnitude and source of market power when designing market structure, rules and trading practices. 9 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  11. Canadian natural gas market: dynamics and pricing -- an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    This publication is part of the Energy Market Assessment Program of the National Energy Board. It focuses on identifying factors that affect natural gas prices and describe the current functioning of domestic regional markets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces.The report emphasizes the growth in demand for natural gas throughout North America, and the aggressive response by producers to the current high price environment with increased drilling programs. The report also predicts a supply and demand adjustment over time, and an accompanying relief in natural gas prices, although the Board is not able to predict with certainty any movements in commodity markets. The Board's findings indicate that domestic users of natural gas paid less than export customers until 1998, at which point the two prices have converged. The end result of the convergence was that Canadians have had access to natural gas under terms and conditions which were no less favourable than those in effect for export customers. The influence of electronic trading systems is reviewed, noting that spot markets and futures markets such as the NYMEX and AECO-C/NIT have had a significant impact on the pricing of natural gas, mostly by allowing market participants to manage price volatility by forward contracting. 1 tab., 42 figs., 1 glossary

  12. Outflow dynamics in modeling oligopoly markets: the case of the mobile telecommunications market in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sznajd-Weron, Katarzyna; Weron, Rafał; Włoszczowska, Maja

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumer choice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain critical level of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one market leader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, for both models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level p \\in (0.3,0.4) . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famous social experiment.

  13. An Essay on Marketing Performance Assessment: Opportunities in the Context of Research Studies in Marketing in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Angotti Guissoni

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Assessing marketing performance is important in order to minimize the subjectivism in the decision making process. Assessing marketing performance is an alternative so marketing will no longer be considered as a tactical area but rather strategically. In this context, research in marketing should investigate the effects of marketing activities by applying metrics. Despite marketing’s growing importance in journals and developed markets, there are few research studies in Brazil, so we organized a theoretical essay. This essay intends to contribute to the marketing literature in two ways: i by presenting a detailed overview of the marketing performance literature from the 1960’s until the year 2012, which allows us to complement previous studies, from a new perspective on the evolution of the central ideas in marketing; ii identifying research opportunities related to this topic that may stimulate debates and future research. 

  14. Natural gas market assessment ten years after deregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-11-01

    Changes which have taken place in the Canadian natural gas market in the ten years since the gas market was de-regulated, were reviewed. A 1985 agreement created conditions for a competitive natural gas market. However, the National Energy Board ensured that the pipeline transmission sector of the gas industry would continue to be regulated because of its natural monopoly characteristics. Open non-discriminatory access was to be provided to all shippers on inter-provincial gas pipelines. One objective of this report was to provide the Board with the means of assuring itself that the market was operating in such a way that Canadian requirements for natural gas were being met at fair market prices. The report also provided a review of the major changes in the gas producing and transmission sector, and reviewed developments in gas markets and sales practices. The overall assessment was that the natural gas industry was efficient and responsive to the demands of the marketplace. 5 tabs., 30 figs

  15. Conceptual model innovation management: market orientation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.Ya. Maljuta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights issues that determine the beginning of the innovation process. Determined that until recently in Ukraine at all levels of innovation management (regional, sectoral, institutional dominated grocery orientation innovation that focus on production innovation and found that the transition to a market economy, the restructuring of production and complexity of social needs led to the strengthening of the consumer. It is proved that innovation itself – not the ultimate goal, but only a means of satisfying consumer needs. It proved that changing production conditions, complications of social needs and the need to improve the competitiveness of innovations require finding new forms of innovation. In this regard, proposed to allocate such basic scheme (model of innovation in small businesses, individual entrepreneurs, venture capital firms, eksplerents, patients, violents and commutants, spin-offs and spin-out company, network (or shell company and a network of small businesses.

  16. Advanced Marketing Core Curriculum. Test Items and Assessment Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Clifton L.; And Others

    This document contains duties and tasks, multiple-choice test items, and other assessment techniques for Missouri's advanced marketing core curriculum. The core curriculum begins with a list of 13 suggested textbook resources. Next, nine duties with their associated tasks are given. Under each task appears one or more citations to appropriate…

  17. NATGAS. A Model of the European Natural Gas Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulder, M; Zwart, G.

    2006-02-01

    The NATural GAS model is an integrated model of the European wholesale gas market providing long-run projections of supply, transport, storage and consumption patterns in the model region, aggregated in 5-year periods, distinguishing two seasons (winter and summer). Model results include levels of investment in the various branches, output and consumption, depletion of reserves and price levels. The NATGAS model computes long-term effects of policy measures on future gas production and gas prices in Europe. NATGAS is an equilibrium model describing behaviour of gas producers, investors in infrastructure (pipeline, LNG capacity, as well as storage), traders and consumers. NATGAS covers the main European demand regions, including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Moreover, it covers the main origins of supply on the European market, such as Russia, Norway, Algeria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and LNG. In this memorandum, we first discuss the theoretical background as well as the model specifications. Afterwards, we describe the data we used, present some results and assess validity by computing sensitivities and comparing with current developments

  18. The 4s web-marketing mix model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Constantinides, Efthymios

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm,

  19. Models for the financial-performance effects of Marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanssens, D.M.; Dekimpe, Marnik; Wierenga, B.; van der Lans, R.

    We consider marketing-mix models that explicitly include financial performance criteria. These financial metrics are not only comparable across the marketing mix, they also relate well to investors’ evaluation of the firm. To that extent, we treat marketing as an investment in customer value

  20. Marketing for a Web-Based Master's Degree Program in Light of Marketing Mix Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Cheng-Chang

    2012-01-01

    The marketing mix model was applied with a focus on Web media to re-strategize a Web-based Master's program in a southern state university in U.S. The program's existing marketing strategy was examined using the four components of the model: product, price, place, and promotion, in hopes to repackage the program (product) to prospective students…

  1. Assessment of the world market for small and medium reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csik, B.J.

    1998-01-01

    The market for SMRs until 2015 was assessed by individual countries, taking into account energy demand and supply patterns, growth rates, energy resources, economic and financial resources, electric grids, industrial and technical development, infrastructure availability, environmental and nuclear safety concerns and other policy issues. The market assessment includes all applications of these reactors, that is electricity generation as well as the supply of process head and district heating. It is expected that SMRs will be deployed primarily in countries which have already started nuclear projects, in particular in countries which have developed SMR designs themselves. Thus, projects would be supplied predominantly by domestic sources in the years ahead; later, the export market is expected to attain more importance. It is further expected that over two thirds of the SMR units would be in the medium size range, i.e. from 300 to 700 MW(e), the rest would be smaller. About one third of the SMRs to be implemented are expected to supply heat and/or electricity to integrated seawater desalination plants. More than half of these reactors would be below 300 MW(e) or 1000 MW(th). The overall market is estimated at about 60 to 100 SMR units to be implemented up to the year 2015. It is recognized that forecasts, just like national development plans, tend to err on the optimistic side. Therefore, an overall market estimate of 70 to 80 units seems reasonable. (author)

  2. Maritimes natural gas market : an overview and assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, G.

    2003-01-01

    In 1987, Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) adopted a market-based procedure (MBP) to assess long-term gas exports. The MPB included monitoring and assessment of Maritimes natural gas markets. The NEB is responsible for interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines as well as tolls and tariffs on NEB-regulated pipelines. The NEB is also responsible for electricity and natural gas exports and exploration programs on federally regulated lands not covered by an Accord agreement. The province of New Brunswick requested a new set of rules for the export of natural gas from the Maritimes to ensure competitiveness with other jurisdictions. The NEB decided that the public interest is best served by allowing the market to work. It also decided that the developing Maritimes market faces several challenges not faced by buyers in the export market. It was concluded that the market is working reasonably well to meet the needs of domestic consumers. 20 per cent of Scotian gas is being used in the Maritimes and many laterals have been constructed to extend service. Most major population centres have natural gas. However, there is no residential or commercial natural gas service in Nova Scotia, and only limited penetration of natural gas in residential and commercial markets in New Brunswick. Maritimers have a long history of using other fuel options and must make capital investment to switch to natural gas. They must, therefore, be convinced that investment will pay off in fuel savings and other benefits. The NEB will have to improve price transparency and strive for regulatory efficiency and cooperation with other jurisdictions. 2 figs

  3. Physician offices marketing: assessing patients' views of office visits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmett, Dennis; Chandra, Ashish

    2010-01-01

    Physician offices often lack the sense of incorporating appropriate strategies to make their facilities as marketer of their services. The patient experience at a physician's office not only incorporates the care they receive from the physician but also the other non-healthcare related aspects, such as the behavior of non-health professionals as well as the appearance of the facility itself. This paper is based on a primary research conducted to assess what patients assess from a physician office visit.

  4. Business models in commercial media markets: Bargaining, advertising, and mixing

    OpenAIRE

    Thöne, Miriam; Rasch, Alexander; Wenzel, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    We consider a product and a media market and show how a change in the business model employed by the media platforms affects consumers, producers (or advertisers), and price negotiations for advertisements. On both markets, two firms differentiated á la Hotelling compete for consumers. On the media market, consumers can mix between the two outlets whereas on the product market, consumers have to decide for one supplier. With pay-tv, as opposed to free-to-air, mixing by consumers disappears, p...

  5. The 4s web-marketing mix model

    OpenAIRE

    Constantinides, Efthymios

    2002-01-01

    This paper reviews the criticism on the 4Ps Marketing Mix framework, the most popular tool of traditional marketing management, and categorizes the main objections of using the model as the foundation of physical marketing. It argues that applying the traditional approach, based on the 4Ps paradigm, is also a poor choice in the case of virtual marketing and identifies two main limitations of the framework in online environments: the drastically diminished role of the Ps and the lack of any st...

  6. Ising model of financial markets with many assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckrot, A.; Jurczyk, J.; Morgenstern, I.

    2016-11-01

    Many models of financial markets exist, but most of them simulate single asset markets. We study a multi asset Ising model of a financial market. Each agent has two possible actions (buy/sell) for every asset. The agents dynamically adjust their coupling coefficients according to past market returns and external news. This leads to fat tails and volatility clustering independent of the number of assets. We find that a separation of news into different channels leads to sector structures in the cross correlations, similar to those found in real markets.

  7. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1996-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  8. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  9. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  10. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule

  11. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions. The production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level. This report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Model Purpose; Chapter 3, Model Overview and Rationale; Chapter 4, Model Structure; Appendix A, Inventory of Input Data, Parameter Estimates, and Model Outputs; Appendix B, Detailed Mathematical Description of the Model; Appendix C, Bibliography; Appendix D, Model Abstract; Appendix E, Data Quality; Appendix F, Estimation methodologies; Appendix G, Matrix Generator documentation; Appendix H, Historical Data Processing; and Appendix I, Biofuels Supply Submodule.

  12. Relationship Marketing results: proposition of a cognitive mapping model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iná Futino Barreto

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective - This research sought to develop a cognitive model that expresses how marketing professionals understand the relationship between the constructs that define relationship marketing (RM. It also tried to understand, using the obtained model, how objectives in this field are achieved. Design/methodology/approach – Through cognitive mapping, we traced 35 individual mental maps, highlighting how each respondent understands the interactions between RM elements. Based on the views of these individuals, we established an aggregate mental map. Theoretical foundation – The topic is based on a literature review that explores the RM concept and its main elements. Based on this review, we listed eleven main constructs. Findings – We established an aggregate mental map that represents the RM structural model. Model analysis identified that CLV is understood as the final result of RM. We also observed that the impact of most of the RM elements on CLV is brokered by loyalty. Personalization and quality, on the other hand, proved to be process input elements, and are the ones that most strongly impact others. Finally, we highlight that elements that punish customers are much less effective than elements that benefit them. Contributions - The model was able to insert core elements of RM, but absent from most formal models: CLV and customization. The analysis allowed us to understand the interactions between the RM elements and how the end result of RM (CLV is formed. This understanding improves knowledge on the subject and helps guide, assess and correct actions.

  13. Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, V.

    1999-04-01

    The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

  14. Impulse-response analysis of the market share attraction model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a simulation-based technique to calculate impulse-response functions and their confidence intervals in a market share attraction model [MCI]. As an MCI model implies a reduced form model for the logs of relative market shares, simulation techniques have to be used to obtain

  15. Building models for marketing decisions : Past, present and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeflang, PSH; Wittink, DR

    We review five eras of model building in marketing, with special emphasis on the fourth and the fifth eras, the present and the future. At many firms managers now routinely use model-based results for marketing decisions. Given an increasing number of successful applications, the demand for models

  16. An agent model for the high-end gamers market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaansen, T.; Armbruster, H.D.; Kempf, K.; Li, H.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the driving forces in the markets of their products is a basic necessity for any business. Quantitative models are either aggregated over large market segments or restricted to utility models of an individual's buying decision. While the aggregate models acknowledge that customer

  17. MARKET EVALUATION MODEL: TOOL FORBUSINESS DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles Loarte, José; Yenque Dedios, Julio; Lavado Soto, Aurelio

    2014-01-01

    In the present work the concepts of potential market and global market are analyzed as the basis for strategic decisions of market with long term perspectives, when the implantation of a business in certain geographic area is evaluated. On this conceptual frame, the methodological tool is proposed to evaluate a commercial decision, for which it is taken as reference the case from the brewing industry in Peru, considering that this industry faces in the region entrepreneurial reorderings withi...

  18. Does Marketing Attract Less Ethical Students? An Assessment of the Moral Reasoning Ability of Undergraduate Marketing Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herington, Carmel; Weaven, Scott

    2007-01-01

    This article assesses the level of moral reasoning ability (MRA) of undergraduate marketing students and compares the results with the MRA of students in a range of other business disciplines. The aim was to determine if marketing attracts individuals who have a greater predisposition to unethical behaviors given that marketing is often reported…

  19. From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

    2007-01-01

    Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

  20. From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

  1. How to Assess Market Readiness for an Innovative Solution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Sune Solberg; Brem, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    motivations and barriers when it comes to energy efficiency. Based on these findings, this paper argues that the biggest advancements are not to be made within the SMEs, but partly through the legislation that affects the financial benefits of energy improvement solutions, and through the marketing approach......The uptake of solutions that increase energy efficiency is significantly lower for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This is due to several barriers, among which legislation, motivation, finance and other resources play a large role. In this paper, we describe a framework of market...... readiness and use it to assess the asymmetry between existing solutions and opportunities in the market. The aim is to identify which steps can be taken in order to introduce more energy optimizations into SMEs, and who should be taking those steps. More specifically, we explore how four Danish SMEs...

  2. An options model for electric power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Kanchan; Ramesh, V.C.

    1997-01-01

    The international electric utility industry is undergoing a radical transformation from an essentially regulated and monopolistic industry to an industry made uncertain with impending deregulation and the advent of competitive forces. This paper investigates the development of an options market for bulk power trading in a market setup while considering power system planning and operational constraints and/or requirements. In so doing it considers the different market based financial derivative instruments while can be used to trade electrical power in bulk and examines how established tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) may be applied in helping to develop a price for bulk power transactions under a market based setup. (Author)

  3. Assessing market competition and vendors' size and scope on AlphaBay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquet-Clouston, Masarah; Décary-Hétu, David; Morselli, Carlo

    2018-04-01

    Since 2011, drug market participants have traded illegal drugs through cryptomarkets, a user-friendly infrastructure in which drug market participants can conduct business transactions. This study assesses market competition and the size and scope of drug vendors' activities on one of the largest cryptomarkets, AlphaBay, in order to better understand the challenges that drug vendors face when selling on this venue. Relying on data collected from AlphaBay, we calculate the degree of competition within the drug market using the Herfindhal-Hirshmann Index (HHI). We then follow a micro analytical approach and assess the size and scope of vendors' accounts. This is done by evaluating each vendor's market share over time using a group-based trajectory model (GBTM). Results from the GBTM are then used to assess vendors' exposure, diversity and experience based on their selling position in the market. The HHI scores demonstrate that cryptomarkets offer a highly competitive environment that fits in a top-heavy market structure. However, the distribution of vendors' market share trajectories shows that only a small portion of vendors (referred to as high-level vendors) succeed in generating regular sales, whereas the majority of vendors are relegated to being mere market spectators with almost zero sales. This inequality is exacerbated by the aggressive advertising of high-level vendors who post many listings. Overall, product diversity and experience is limited for all market participants regardless of their level of success. We interpret these results through Reuter's work on traditional illegal markets, e-commerce studies and the growing field of cryptomarket research. We conclude that, while offering a new venue for illegal drug transactions, in many ways, the economics of cryptomarkets for drug dealing are consistent with Reuter's classic assessment of illegal markets and the consequences of product illegality that underlie it. Cryptomarkets conflicting features, a

  4. Development of a virtual power market model to investigate strategic and collusive behavior of market players

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, Miadreza; Parsa Moghaddam, Mohsen; Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohamad Kazem

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a virtual power market model is proposed to investigate the behavior of power market players from regulator's point of view. In this approach, strategic players are modeled in a multi-agent environment. These agents which are virtual representative of actual players forecast the prices and participate in the markets, exactly the same as real world situation. In addition, the role of ISO is encountered by using security constraint unit commitment (SCUC) and security constraint economic dispatch (SCED) solutions. Moreover, the interaction between market players is modeled using a heuristic dynamic game theory algorithm based on the supply function equilibria (SFE). In addition to the collusive behavior, using the proposed model, the short-term strategic behavior of players, which their effects will appear in long-term, can be simulated. The proposed model enables the market regulators to make decision before implementing new market rules with the confidence of their results. To represent the effectiveness of the proposed method, a case study including wind power plants is considered and the impact of various market rules on players’ behavior is simulated and discussed. Numerical studies indicate that simulating the strategic and collusive behavior prior to any change in the market rules is necessary. - Highlights: • A virtual power market model is proposed using a heuristic dynamic game theory. • The proposed model can simulate the behavior of market players in a certain period. • This model can evaluate the oligopoly, collusive and strategic behavior of players. • The price uncertainty and security constraint are considered. • Neglecting strategic behavior of players can cause adverse consequences

  5. Market assessment of photovoltaic power systems for agricultural applications worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabraal, A.; Delasanta, D.; Rosen, J.; Nolfi, J.; Ulmer, R.

    1981-11-01

    Agricultural sector PV market assessments conducted in the Phillippines, Nigeria, Mexico, Morocco, and Colombia are extrapolated worldwide. The types of applications evaluated are those requiring less than 15 kW of power and operate in a stand alone mode. The major conclusions were as follows: PV will be competitive in applications requiring 2 to 3 kW of power prior to 1983; by 1986 PV system competitiveness will extend to applications requiring 4 to 6 kW of power, due to capital constraints, the private sector market may be restricted to applications requiring less than about 2 kW of power; the ultimate purchase of larger systems will be governments, either through direct purchase or loans from development banks. Though fragmented, a significant agriculture sector market for PV exists; however, the market for PV in telecommunications, signalling, rural services, and TV will be larger. Major market related factors influencing the potential for U.S. PV Sales are: lack of awareness; high first costs; shortage of long term capital; competition from German, French and Japanese companies who have government support; and low fuel prices in capital surplus countries. Strategies that may aid in overcoming some of these problems are: setting up of a trade association aimed at overcoming problems due to lack of awareness, innovative financing schemes such as lease arrangements, and designing products to match current user needs as opposed to attempting to change consumer behavior.

  6. A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lise, Wietze; Linderhof, Vincent; Kuik, Onno; Kemfert, Claudia; Ostling, Robert; Heinzow, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight Northwestern European countries, namely Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Different market structures are compared, depending on the ability of firms to exercise market power, ranging from perfect competition without market power to strategic competition where large firms exercise market power. In addition, a market power reduction policy is studied where the near-monopolies in France and Belgium are demerged into smaller firms. To analyse environmental impacts, a fixed greenhouse gas emission reduction target is introduced under different market structures. The results indicate that the effects of liberalisation depend on the resulting market structure, but that a reduction in market power of large producers may be beneficial for both the consumer (i.e. lower prices) and the environment (i.e. lower greenhouse gas permit price and lower acidifying and smog emissions)

  7. A model for marketing planning of new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1994-01-01

    Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... incorporates a special model to explain consumer awareness of the new product. 3. Consumer awareness is explained by distribution (shelf facings and in-store promotion), advertising and giving away free samples. 4. The trial model incorporates the total market potential, the probability of being in a buying...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

  8. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  9. A complementarity model for the European natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egging, Ruud; Gabriel, Steven A.; Holz, Franziska; Zhuang, Jifang

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call 'traders', pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, liquefiers and regasifiers is modeled via optimization problems whose Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions in combination with market-clearing conditions form the complementarity system. The LNG tankers, marketers and consumption sectors are modeled implicitly via appropriate cost functions, aggregate demand curves, and ex post calculations, respectively. The model is run on several case studies that highlight its capabilities, including a simulation of a disruption of Russian supplies via Ukraine

  10. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuang Jifang; Gabriel, Steven A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems

  11. A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jifang Zhuang; Gabriel, S.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic equilibrium model for deregulated natural gas markets. Each market participant (pipeline operators, producers, etc.) solves a stochastic optimization problem whose optimality conditions, when combined with market-clearing conditions give rise to a certain mixed complementarity problem (MiCP). The stochastic aspects are depicted by a recourse problem for each player in which the first-stage decisions relate to long-term contracts and the second-stage decisions relate to spot market activities for three seasons. Besides showing that such a market model is an instance of a MiCP, we provide theoretical results concerning long-term and spot market prices and solve the resulting MiCP for a small yet representative market. We also note an interesting observation for the value of the stochastic solution for non-optimization problems. (author)

  12. Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated

  13. Timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; Paul E. Sendak; William H. McWilliams; Neil Huyler; Thomas Malecek; Worthen Muzzey; Toni Jones

    2001-01-01

    This report describes a timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area using USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis data, production information provided by forest industry, and a stump-to-mill logging cost-prediction model. Nonavailable timberland that includes reserve and steep-terrain lands is...

  14. Assessment of market potential of compressed air energy storage systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, D. W.; Buckley, O. E.; Clark, C. E., Jr.

    1983-12-01

    This report describes an assessment of potential roles that EPRI might take to facilitate the commercial acceptance of compressed air energy storage (CAES) systems. The assessment is based on (1) detailed analyses of the market potential of utility storage technologies, (2) interviews with representatives of key participants in the CAES market, and (3) a decision analysis synthesizing much of the information about market and technology status. The results indicate a large potential market for CAES systems if the overall business environment for utilities improves. In addition, it appears that EPRI can have a valuable incremental impact in ensuring that utilities realize the potential of CAES by (1) continuing an aggressive information dissemination and technology transfer program, (2) working to ensure the success of the first United States CAES installation at Soyland Power Cooperative, (3) developing planning methods to allow utilities to evaluate CAES and other storage options more effectively and more realistically, and (4) supporting R and D to resolve residual uncertainties in first-generation CAES cost and performance characteristics. Previously announced in STAR as N83-25121

  15. An Experimental Model for Market Penetration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caren, William L.

    1987-01-01

    A plan for college market penetration that has been successful in increasing the applicant pool for one institution is outlined and discussed. It includes development of performance objectives, a schedule, a promotional plan, market survey, and promotional activities including alumni, media, and other community resources. (MSE)

  16. Applied Creativity: The Creative Marketing Breakthrough Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titus, Philip A.

    2007-01-01

    Despite the increasing importance of personal creativity in today's business environment, few conceptual creativity frameworks have been presented in the marketing education literature. The purpose of this article is to advance the integration of creativity instruction into marketing classrooms by presenting an applied creative marketing…

  17. A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitima Innocent

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

  18. A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turksen, I. B.; Willson, Ian A.

    1992-01-01

    Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share

  19. Electric market models, competitive model and alternative design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnedillo, O.

    2007-01-01

    Almost ten years after the liberalization of the Spanish electric system, its market design has remained basically unchanged. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider whether the current model continues to be adequate or whether it should be changed. However, although the current model is far from the absolute optimum, it is suited to the current state of the Spanish system. Only some improvements, such as the reform of the capacity guarantee payment can be undertaken immediately. It will only be possible to undertake other improvements as distribution companies cover all of their electricity needs in forward contracts acquired through a competitive process. (Author)

  20. Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolfgang, Ove; Doorman, Gerard

    2011-01-01

    Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO 2 emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus. (author)

  1. A bargaining model of regulated markets' integration with an application to electricity supply market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Jingyuan; Smeers, Y.; Canon, E.

    1995-01-01

    An integrated market organized by regulated electric utilities is modelled. It is assumed that, given a price vector for the exchange of electricity between each pair of neighboring utilities, utilities independently maximize their own domestic social welfare subject to the zero profit constraint. An equilibrium price vector for exchanges among utilities is defined as the one which clears the exchanges for all pair of business partners. A single piecewise linear model is formulated for computing market equilibria. The model is used to simulate the electricity supply market organized by 11 western European countries

  2. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M.; Pereira, Ivo F.; Fernandes, Ricardo; Praça, Isabel; Vale, Zita

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Definition of an ontology allowing the communication between multi-agents systems. • Social welfare evaluation in different electricity markets. • Demonstration of the use of the proposed ontology between two multi-agents systems. • Strategic biding in electricity markets. • European electricity markets comparison. - Abstract: The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution

  3. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  4. A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Mason

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

  5. Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractMarket share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of

  6. Improving the Transfer and Use of Agricultural Market Information in Zambia: A User Needs Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Chomba, Geoffrey; Mbozi, Green; Mundia, David; Simpamba, Mike; Mwiinga, Billy; Donovan, Cynthia; Mushingwani, Stanely

    2002-01-01

    The overall objective of the assessment is to review the current agricultural marketing information system and to establish felt marketing needs for agricultural marketing participants and other interested parties. Specifically, the study aimed at achieving the following- to assess the marketing information needs among user groups; to assess the current level of satisfaction and utilization of existing marketing support (information) services including AMIC; to identify other agricultural mar...

  7. Mathematical models in marketing a collection of abstracts

    CERN Document Server

    Funke, Ursula H

    1976-01-01

    Mathematical models can be classified in a number of ways, e.g., static and dynamic; deterministic and stochastic; linear and nonlinear; individual and aggregate; descriptive, predictive, and normative; according to the mathematical technique applied or according to the problem area in which they are used. In marketing, the level of sophistication of the mathe­ matical models varies considerably, so that a nurnber of models will be meaningful to a marketing specialist without an extensive mathematical background. To make it easier for the nontechnical user we have chosen to classify the models included in this collection according to the major marketing problem areas in which they are applied. Since the emphasis lies on mathematical models, we shall not as a rule present statistical models, flow chart models, computer models, or the empirical testing aspects of these theories. We have also excluded competitive bidding, inventory and transportation models since these areas do not form the core of ·the market...

  8. Assessing market competition in the Philippine cigarette industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meg Reganon

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background The recent passage of the Philippine Competition Act has caused many to rethink the market structure of Philippine industries. Foremost is the cigarette industry, whose structure bear important implications on the health of Filipinos. A competitive cigarette industry may mean price wars and intensified advertising, disproportionately harming the young and the poor. On the other hand, a concentrated industry may mean a dominant player with ability to engage in predatory pricing. The latter will also likely possess power to lobby against tobacco control policies. In this study, we assess the market competition in the Philippine cigarette industry, and its correlation with cigarette affordability in recent years. Methods Using retail volume data from Euromonitor International and financial reports from the Securities and Exchange Commission, we calculate for various measures of market concentration such as the Top 4 Concentration Ratio (C4, the Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI, and the Dominance Index (DI over the period 2007 to 2016. We then compare these measures against cigarette affordability trends. Results Across all measures, we find a highly concentrated cigarette industry. C4 ratios ranged from 97%-99%, HHI from 4754-8848, and DI from 7479-9973. In 2010 when Philip Morris acquired Fortune Tobacco, industry concentration peaked (HHI rose by 72% and DI by 33%. In 2012 when the Sin Tax Law was passed, competition slightly intensified with Mighty Corporation taking advantage of the transitionary dual tax structure. Most significantly, fluctuations in market concentration did not affect cigarette affordability. A pack of cigarettes costed 7.4%-8.4% of the daily minimum wage between 2006-2012. Conclusions Assessing the market structure of the cigarette industry better informs the formulation of effective tobacco control regulations. For a concentrated cigarette industry such as in the Philippines, an effective tax policy must temper

  9. Assessment of the condition of a consumer market: interactive research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasiya Yevgenyevna Sudakova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Results of an assessment of a condition of the consumer market are presented in the article on the basis of official statistics data. At the heart of an assessment, the method of the indicative analysis lies. The technique includes five modules: quality of consumer goods, works, services; food security, nonfood safety; safety of services; security of participants of the consumer market. Also results of interactive Internet research of the condition of the ultimate consumer are presented in the article, by means of the carried out research. Interactive research is presented by 3 blocks: the general block (allows to make the respondent’s portrait; the special block (allows to estimate the changes in price, quality and the range of consumer goods and services; the additional block (allows respondents to leave comments. On the basis of the conducted research, it is possible to draw a conclusion that the assessment of the state received on the basis of methodical tools, shows positive dynamics, nevertheless, the condition of the consumer market remains unsatisfactory that also is confirmed by results of interactive research. The recommendations, allowing to lower the rise in prices and increase the quality of consumer goods and services are presented in the article

  10. Interdependency Assessment of Coupled Natural Gas and Power Systems in Energy Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hongzhao; Qiu, Jing; Zhang, Sanhua; Lai, Mingyong; Dong, Zhao Yang

    2015-12-01

    Owing to the technological development of natural gas exploration and the increasing penetration of gas-fired power generation, gas and power systems inevitably interact with each other from both physical and economic points of view. In order to effectively assess the two systems' interdependency, this paper proposes a systematic modeling framework and constructs simulation platforms for coupled gas and power systems in an energy market environment. By applying the proposed approach to the Australian national electricity market (NEM) and gas market, the impacts of six types of market and system factors are quantitatively analyzed, including power transmission limits, gas pipeline contingencies, gas pipeline flow constraints, carbon emission constraints, power load variations, and non-electric gas load variations. The important interdependency and infrastructure weakness for the two systems are well studied and identified. Our work provides a quantitative basis for grid operators and policy makers to support and guide operation and investment decisions for electric power and natural gas industries.

  11. Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Aoyama, Hideaki; Chakrabarti, Bikas; Chakraborti, Anirban; Ghosh, Asim; Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics

    2015-01-01

    This book presents the works and research findings of physicists, economists, mathematicians, statisticians, and financial engineers who have undertaken data-driven modelling of market dynamics and other empirical studies in the field of Econophysics. During recent decades, the financial market landscape has changed dramatically with the deregulation of markets and the growing complexity of products. The ever-increasing speed and decreasing costs of computational power and networks have led to the emergence of huge databases. The availability of these data should permit the development of models that are better founded empirically, and econophysicists have accordingly been advocating that one should rely primarily on the empirical observations in order to construct models and validate them. The recent turmoil in financial markets and the 2008 crash appear to offer a strong rationale for new models and approaches. The Econophysics community accordingly has an important future role to play in market modelling....

  12. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbes, Carsten; Friege, Christian

    2015-01-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [de

  13. Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

    2016-11-01

    Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

  14. Electrodynamical Model of Quasi-Efficient Financial Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilinski, Kirill N.; Stepanenko, Alexander S.

    The modelling of financial markets presents a problem which is both theoretically challenging and practically important. The theoretical aspects concern the issue of market efficiency which may even have political implications [1], whilst the practical side of the problem has clear relevance to portfolio management [2] and derivative pricing [3]. Up till now all market models contain "smart money" traders and "noise" traders whose joint activity constitutes the market [4, 5]. On a short time scale this traditional separation does not seem to be realistic, and is hardly acceptable since all high-frequency market participants are professional traders and cannot be separated into "smart" and "noisy." In this paper we present a "microscopic" model with homogenuous quasi-rational behaviour of traders, aiming to describe short time market behaviour. To construct the model we use an analogy between "screening" in quantum electrodynamics and an equilibration process in a market with temporal mispricing [6, 7]. As a result, we obtain the time-dependent distribution function of the returns which is in quantitative agreement with real market data and obeys the anomalous scaling relations recently reported for both high-frequency exchange rates [8], S&P500 [9] and other stock market indices [10, 11].

  15. Marketing of renewable energies. Foundations, business models, case studies; Marketing Erneuerbarer Energien. Grundlagen, Geschaeftsmodelle, Fallbeispiele

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbes, Carsten [HfWU Nuertingen-Geislingen, Nuertingen (Germany); Friege, Christian (ed.)

    2015-07-01

    How to market green electricity or biomethane? What is the right price for renewable energy and how do you design the optimal use of social media? What impact have the EEG or electromobility to the Green Power Marketing? Does direct marketing works or is online marketing the guarantee of success? Answers to these and many other basic questions provides the band with contributions from leading scientists and renowned practitioners. For the first time they describe in a structured form the basics of marketing of renewable energies, provide an introduction to the legal and market-based features and present new business models. The book is based on the latest research results, treats all questions of marketing issues important for practitioners, provides case studies and specific recommendations. [German] Wie vermarktet man Oekostrom oder Biomethan? Was ist der richtige Preis fuer Erneuerbare Energien und wie gestaltet man den optimalen Einsatz von Social Media? Welche Auswirkungen haben das EEG oder die Elektromobilitaet auf das Gruenstrom-Marketing? Funktioniert Direktvertrieb oder ist Online-Marketing der Erfolgsgarant? Antworten auf diese und viele weitere grundlegende Fragen liefert dieser Band mit Beitraegen fuehrender Wissenschaftler und renommierter Praktiker. Erstmals beschreiben sie hier in strukturierter Form die Grundlagen der Vermarktung von Erneuerbaren Energien, fuehren in die gesetzlichen und marktlichen Besonderheiten ein und stellen neue Geschaeftsmodelle vor. Das Buch fusst auf aktuellen Forschungsergebnissen, behandelt saemtliche fuer Praktiker wichtige Fragen der Vermarktung, liefert Fallbeispiele und konkrete Empfehlungen.

  16. Examining Policies to Reduce Homelessness Using a General Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Mansur, Erin; Quigley, John M.; Raphael, Steven; Smolensky, Eugene

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we use a general equilibrium simulation model to assess the potential impacts on homelessness of various housing-market policy interventions. We calibrate the model to the four largest metropolitan areas in California. We explore the welfare con- sequences and the effects on homelessness of three housing-market policy interventions: extending housing vouchers to all low-income households, subsidizing all landlords, and subsidizing those landlords who supply low-income housing. ...

  17. Using Marketing Capability Maturity Model to Measure Marketing Processes at Iran Transfo Corporation

    OpenAIRE

    Arman Ahmadizad; Seyyed Mojtaba Akhavan Hejazi; Amirhossein Sabourtinat

    2011-01-01

    Abstract In this study marketing maturity model has been used in Iran Transfo Corporation. For this purpose, the five levels process maturity model has been applied. The statistical population includes managers, supervisors and experts of marketing and sales at Iran Transfo Corporation and due to its small size, the entire population has been studied as the sample of research. 11 questionnaires have been used for data collection its validity has been confirmed by content validity analysis ...

  18. Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

    2003-01-01

    Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

  19. Market assessment of tuberculosis diagnostics in China in 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y-L; Pang, Y; Xia, H; Du, X; Chin, D; Huan, S-T; Dong, H-Y; Zhang, Z-Y; Ginnard, J; Perkins, M D; Boehme, C C; Jefferson, C; Pantoja, A; Qin, Z Z; Chedore, P; Denkinger, C M; Pai, M; Kik, S V

    2016-03-01

    To assess the 2012 served available market for tuberculosis (TB) diagnostics in China in the sector served by the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the hospital sector in China, including both designated TB hospitals and general hospitals. Test volumes and unit costs were assessed for tuberculin skin tests, interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs), smear microscopy, serology, cultures, speciation tests, nucleic-acid amplification tests (NAATs), drug susceptibility tests and adenosine-deaminase tests (ADA). Data were obtained from electronic databases (CDC sector) and through surveys (hospital sector), and were estimated for the two sectors and for the country as a whole. Test costs were estimated by staff at China CDC, and using published literature. In 2012, the China CDC and hospital sectors performed a total of 44 million TB diagnostic tests at an overall value of US$294 million. Tests used by the CDC sector were smear microscopy, solid and liquid culture and DST, while the hospital sector also used IGRAs, NAATs, ADA and serology. The hospital sector accounted for 76% of the overall test volume and 94% of the market value. China has a very large TB diagnostic market that encompasses a wide range of diagnostic tests, with the majority being performed in Chinese hospitals.

  20. Photovoltaic subsystem marketing and distribution model: programming manual. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-07-01

    Complete documentation of the marketing and distribution (M and D) computer model is provided. The purpose is to estimate the costs of selling and transporting photovoltaic solar energy products from the manufacturer to the final customer. The model adjusts for the inflation and regional differences in marketing and distribution costs. The model consists of three major components: the marketing submodel, the distribution submodel, and the financial submodel. The computer program is explained including the input requirements, output reports, subprograms and operating environment. The program specifications discuss maintaining the validity of the data and potential improvements. An example for a photovoltaic concentrator collector demonstrates the application of the model.

  1. A CDO option market model on standardized CDS index tranches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorn, Jochen

    We provide a market model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling emerging options on struc- tured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market...... in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the e ects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options...

  2. Assessment of target markets for deployment of modular HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richards, M.; Hamilton, C.; Venneri, F.

    2014-01-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Industry Alliance (NIA) consists of 16 companies and organizations that support development and deployment of modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (modular HTGRs or MHRs). These companies include reactor vendors, utilities, potential industrial end users of MHR process steam/heat, nuclear graphite vendors, and companies with design, technology development, regulatory licensing, and other HTGR subject matter expertise. The NIA has been investigating potential markets for MHRs in both North America and globally as part of its business plan development. MHRs have inherent, melt-down proof safety with high-temperature capability and high utilization of the nuclear heat for production of electricity and process heat. These features allow MHRs to be located within close proximity to the public and industrial end users, and in locations with very limited or no availability of cooling water as the ultimate heat sink. This paper provides a summary of recent NIA target market assessments, including selected markets which currently utilize high value oil and expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuels for process heat and electricity generation on a large scale (e.g., Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Korea). Results show that significant markets exist today for economical deployment of steam-cycle MHRs for electricity and process heat, especially in countries/regions that utilize expensive (or heavily subsidized) fossil fuels for energy needs. Low natural gas prices in North America presently inhibit expansion of any nuclear technology, but MHRs should be economically competitive by the 2030 - 2040 time frame, when natural gas prices are projected to be in the $7 to $10 per MMBtu price range. There is also good market potential for higher temperature MHR applications, including nuclear steel manufacturing, production of synthetic fuels, and hydrogen production. (author)

  3. Assessment of target markets for deployment of modular HTGRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richards, M.; Hamilton, C.; Venneri, F., E-mail: mrichards@ultrasafe-nuclear.com, E-mail: chamilton@ultrasafe-nuclear.com, E-mail: fvenneri@ultrasafe-nuclear.com [Ultra Safe Nuclear Corp., Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Industry Alliance (NIA) consists of 16 companies and organizations that support development and deployment of modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (modular HTGRs or MHRs). These companies include reactor vendors, utilities, potential industrial end users of MHR process steam/heat, nuclear graphite vendors, and companies with design, technology development, regulatory licensing, and other HTGR subject matter expertise. The NIA has been investigating potential markets for MHRs in both North America and globally as part of its business plan development. MHRs have inherent, melt-down proof safety with high-temperature capability and high utilization of the nuclear heat for production of electricity and process heat. These features allow MHRs to be located within close proximity to the public and industrial end users, and in locations with very limited or no availability of cooling water as the ultimate heat sink. This paper provides a summary of recent NIA target market assessments, including selected markets which currently utilize high value oil and expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuels for process heat and electricity generation on a large scale (e.g., Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Korea). Results show that significant markets exist today for economical deployment of steam-cycle MHRs for electricity and process heat, especially in countries/regions that utilize expensive (or heavily subsidized) fossil fuels for energy needs. Low natural gas prices in North America presently inhibit expansion of any nuclear technology, but MHRs should be economically competitive by the 2030 - 2040 time frame, when natural gas prices are projected to be in the $7 to $10 per MMBtu price range. There is also good market potential for higher temperature MHR applications, including nuclear steel manufacturing, production of synthetic fuels, and hydrogen production. (author)

  4. Distributed power generation, a market assessment; Marktaspekte der verteilten Energieerzeugung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, T.

    2001-03-01

    The article assesses in the light of current energy policy the development of distributed power generation in the future, and resulting impacts on the structure the deregulated power industry in Germany. The author defines the essential characteristics of distributed power generation as opposed to centralized power generation, explains the various existing and emerging power generation technologies, and discusses market penetration scenarios and marketing opportunities in the context of technological developments, environmental and energy efficiency aspects, and consumer attitudes. (orig./CB) [German] Der Artikel bietet wichtige Definitionen fuer eine zielfuehrende Diskussion ueber das gesamte Gebiet der verteilten und dezentralen Energieerzeugung. Er versucht, teilweise emotional besetzte Themen auf sachlich begruendbare Grundannahmen zurueckzufuehren und zieht erste Folgerungen fuer das Zusammenwirken von erneuerbaren Energien und verteilter Energieerzeugung. (orig./CB)

  5. Liquefied natural gas : a Canadian perspective : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    World requirements for energy and natural gas are expected to increase in the near future. This energy market assessment presented an overview of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and demand, and discussed the potential effects that imported LNG may have on Canadian gas markets and energy infrastructure. Regasification projects will double the world's existing LNG receiving capacity by 2015. However, LNG pricing will still be indexed to the price of crude oil and oil products in the future. LNG price differences will affect trading opportunities as well as the flow of LNG between regions. North American LNG facility development will be influenced by outlooks for continental gas supply and demand. Current declines combined with recent increases in United States natural gas production from unconventional gas resources will reduce requirements for LNG in the near future, and may have a significant impact on long-term North American and global LNG requirements. Canada's existing facilities are located competitively with other terminals. 33 figs.

  6. Oops! Many Marketing Models are Wrong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Mesly

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Muchos modelos de ¿marketing¿ que se encuentran en revistas científicas contienen errores de modelado. Este fenómeno ha sido observado desde hace más de treinta años, pero poco se ha hecho para corregir la situación. A fin de evitar señalar autores particulares, se discutirá un ejemplo que se encuentra en los periódicos. Formas apropiadas de los modelos son meticulosamente explicadas y se proporcionan ejemplos de enfoques adecuados de unos autores de ¿marketing¿. El objetivo de este trabajo, no es despectivo sobre la literatura del ¿marketing, más bien es un esfuerzo por rectificar la forma en que la experimentación se hace y se explica.

  7. Electricity market liberalisation - the German model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.

    2002-01-01

    This article discusses the experience gained as a result of the opening of the German electricity market - not only from the national but also from European and international points of view. The history of electricity market liberalisation in Germany is described and the market's structure is compared with that of Switzerland. Both the advantages and disadvantages that have been brought about by liberalisation are discussed as well as the role of state regulation. Certain problem areas still to be tackled are discussed, such those in the areas of cartels, possibilities of supplier-change and tariffs. Also, liberalisation in the context of the European Union's efforts in this area are discussed, especially with respect to the consideration of differing structures in the various member countries of the Union

  8. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanduri, Vishnu; Kazemzadeh, Narges

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ► We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ► Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ► Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ► Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO 2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  9. A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lise, W.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Kuik, O.; Kemfert, C.; Ostling, R.; Heinzow, T.

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight

  10. Models for electricity market efficiency and bidding strategy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hui

    This dissertation studies models for the analysis of market efficiency and bidding behaviors of market participants in electricity markets. Simulation models are developed to estimate how transmission and operational constraints affect the competitive benchmark and market prices based on submitted bids. This research contributes to the literature in three aspects. First, transmission and operational constraints, which have been neglected in most empirical literature, are considered in the competitive benchmark estimation model. Second, the effects of operational and transmission constraints on market prices are estimated through two models based on the submitted bids of market participants. Third, these models are applied to analyze the efficiency of the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas (ERCOT) real-time energy market by simulating its operations for the time period from January 2002 to April 2003. The characteristics and available information for the ERCOT market are considered. In electricity markets, electric firms compete through both spot market bidding and bilateral contract trading. A linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium (SFE) model with transmission constraints is proposed in this dissertation to analyze the bidding strategies with forward contracts. The research contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, we combine forward contracts, transmission constraints, and multi-period strategy (an obligation for firms to bid consistently over an extended time horizon such as a day or an hour) into the linear asymmetric supply function equilibrium framework. As an ex-ante model, it can provide qualitative insights into firms' behaviors. Second, the bidding strategies related to Transmission Congestion Rights (TCRs) are discussed by interpreting TCRs as linear combination of forwards. Third, the model is a general one in the sense that there is no limitation on the number of firms and scale of the transmission network, which can have

  11. Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

    1979-01-01

    An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

  12. Documentation of the petroleum market model (PMM). Appendix: Model developer's report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The EIA Model Documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System provides a complete description of the Petroleum Market Model's (PMM) methodology, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developer's Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation and provides an assessment of the sensitivity of PMM results to changes in input data. The MDR analysis for PMM is performed by varying several sets of input variables one-at-a-time and examining the effect on a set of selected output variables. The analysis is based on stand-alone, rather than integrated, National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) runs. This means that other NEMS modules are not responding to PMM outputs. The PMM models petroleum refining and marketing. The purpose of the PMM is to project petroleum product prices, refining activities, and movements of petroleum into the United States and among domestic regions. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption in, the refining industry. The PMM is also used to analyze a wide variety of petroleum-related issues and policies, in order to foster better understanding of the petroleum refining and marketing industry and the effects of certain policies and regulations. The PMM simulates the operation of petroleum refineries in the United States, including the supply and transportation of crude oil to refineries, the regional processing of these raw materials into petroleum products, and the distribution of petroleum products to meet regional demands. The essential outputs of this model are product prices, a petroleum supply/demand balance, demands for refinery fuel use, and capacity expansion

  13. Engineering approach to model and compute electric power markets settlements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, J.; Petrov, V.

    2006-01-01

    Back-office accounting settlement activities are an important part of market operations in Independent System Operator (ISO) organizations. A potential way to measure ISO market design correctness is to analyze how well market price signals create incentives or penalties for creating an efficient market to achieve market design goals. Market settlement rules are an important tool for implementing price signals which are fed back to participants via the settlement activities of the ISO. ISO's are currently faced with the challenge of high volumes of data resulting from the increasing size of markets and ever-changing market designs, as well as the growing complexity of wholesale energy settlement business rules. This paper analyzed the problem and presented a practical engineering solution using an approach based on mathematical formulation and modeling of large scale calculations. The paper also presented critical comments on various differences in settlement design approaches to electrical power market design, as well as further areas of development. The paper provided a brief introduction to the wholesale energy market settlement systems and discussed problem formulation. An actual settlement implementation framework and discussion of the results and conclusions were also presented. It was concluded that a proper engineering approach to this domain can yield satisfying results by formalizing wholesale energy settlements. Significant improvements were observed in the initial preparation phase, scoping and effort estimation, implementation and testing. 5 refs., 2 figs

  14. NETWORK BASED BUSINESS MODEL INNOVATION TARGETING THE BOP MARKET

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Jacob; Kroghstrup Nielsen, Martin; Lindgren, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Through innovation of products, process and business models targeting the needs of 4 billion poor people living at "the base of pyramid" (BoP) (Prahalad & Hart 2002) in developing countries the private sector can actively support poverty alleviation and at the same time reach new untouched market....... - A market is estimated a value of 5.3 trillion US$ (Hammond, Kramer, Tran, Kratz 2007). A number of researchers has dealt with the BoP - market potential and not least tried to understand how to penetrate this apparent blue ocean. Two distinct lines of thought when targeting BoP markets in developing...... & Halme 2008). The market and customer line - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoPline - exemplified by soap producers trying to penetrate the BoP market through product adaptation selling soap in smaller packages (Hart & Christensen 2002, Prahalad 2006). Based on the case study...

  15. The Interval Stability of an Electricity Market Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijuan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined with the electric power market dynamic model put forward by Alvarado, an interval model of electricity markets is established and investigated in this paper pertaining to the range of demand elasticity with suppliers and consumers. The stability of an electricity market framework with demand elasticity interval is analyzed. The conclusions characterizing the interval model provided are derived by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function and using the theory of interval dynamical system in differential equations and matrix inequality theory and so forth. Applying the corollary obtained can judge the system stability by available data about demand elasticity. The obtained results are validated and illustrated by a case example.

  16. Assessing tobacco marketing receptivity among youth: integrating point of sale marketing, cigarette package branding and branded merchandise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Sandra; Kollath-Cattano, Christy; Barrientos, Inti; Mejía, Raúl; Morello, Paola; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

    2016-11-01

    As countries prohibit tobacco marketing through traditional channels, marketing at point of sale (PoS) and through tobacco packaging is increasingly important for promoting tobacco consumption. Assess the validity of a novel marketing receptivity index that considers frequency of PoS exposures, tobacco brand recall and ownership of branded merchandise. Data come from a cross-sectional survey of 3172 secondary school students in Argentina. Questions assessed frequency of going to stores where tobacco is often sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages with brand name removed and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level marketing receptivity index was derived: low PoS exposure only; high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; recall of 2 or more brands; and ownership of branded merchandise. Indicators of marketing receptivity and smoking involvement were regressed on the index, including in adjusted models that controlled for sociodemographics, social influences and sensation seeking. Among never-smokers, the index had independent positive associations with smoking susceptibility (ie, adjusted OR (AOR) 2v1 =1.66; AOR 3v1 =1.64; AOR 4v1 =2.95), willingness to try a specific brand (ie, AOR 2v1 =1.45; AOR 3v1 =2.38; AOR 4v1 =2.20) and positive smoking expectancies (ie, B adj 2v1 =0.09; B adj 3v1 =0.18; B adj 4v1 =0.34). A more marked dose-response independent association was found with current smoking behaviour (ie, AOR 2v1 =2.47; AOR 3v1 =3.16; AOR 4v1 =3.62). The marketing receptivity index was associated with important variation in smoking-related perceptions, intentions and behaviour among Argentine adolescents. Future research should determine the predictive validity and generalisability of this measure to other contexts, including the explanatory power gained by integrating cigarette package brand recognition tasks. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. Modeling large data sets in marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balasubramanian, S; Gupta, S; Kamakura, W; Wedel, M

    In the last two decades, marketing databases have grown significantly in terms of size and richness of available information. The analysis of these databases raises several information-related and statistical issues. We aim at providing an overview of a selection of issues related to the analysis of

  18. Modeling of the influence of transparency of the derivatives market on financial depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Burdenko

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The market of derivative tools becomes an integral part of the financial market, the functions which are carrying out in it peculiar only to it: hedging, distribution of risks, ensuring liquidity of basic assets, information support of future movement of the prices, decrease in asymmetry of information in the financial markets. However, the insufficiency or lack of transparent information can lead to emergence of the crisis phenomena, shocks in the financial market and growth of system risk. Emergence of need for strengthening of information function of the market of derivatives changes of requirements to transparency of information had been caused by financial crisis of 2008-2009. In this article the attempt of an assessment of influence was made by means of autoregressive models the change of requirements to standard transparency, such as qualitative characteristic of the derivatives market, on quantitative indices of the financial market, in particular financial depth. The results of research demonstrate that reforming of the legislation concerning strengthening of transparency in the derivatives market positively influences the growth of financial depth. The research of this question will promote the best understanding of importance of reforming of regulation of the derivatives market, in particular strengthening of requirements to transparency. Recommendations of the further researches concern the needs of input of reforms of financial regulation in the derivatives market in Ukraine, and, thus, to provide the corresponding conditions for his development

  19. Environmental Assessment for power marketing policy for Southwestern Power Administration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-01

    Southwestern Power Administration (Southwestern) needs to renew expiring power sales contracts with new term (10 year) sales contracts. The existing contracts have been in place for several years and many will expire over the next ten years. Southwestern completed an Environmental Assessment on the existing power allocation in June, 1979 (a copy of the EA is attached), and there are no proposed additions of any major new generation resources, service to discrete major new loads, or major changes in operating parameters, beyond those included in the existing power allocation. Impacts from a no action plan, proposed alternative, and market power for less than 10 years are described.

  20. Environmental Assessment for power marketing policy for Southwestern Power Administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Southwestern Power Administration (Southwestern) needs to renew expiring power sales contracts with new term (10 year) sales contracts. The existing contracts have been in place for several years and many will expire over the next ten years. Southwestern completed an Environmental Assessment on the existing power allocation in June, 1979 (a copy of the EA is attached), and there are no proposed additions of any major new generation resources, service to discrete major new loads, or major changes in operating parameters, beyond those included in the existing power allocation. Impacts from a no action plan, proposed alternative, and market power for less than 10 years are described

  1. Modeling market power in electricity markets: Is the devil only in the details?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bautista, Guillermo; Anjos, Miguel F.; Vannelli, Anthony

    2007-01-15

    Basic approximations of the transmission system are ubiquitous in the literature on modeling competition in electricity markets. Because the main concern of market power is with active power, reactive power and voltage-related issues are commonly neglected, even though they are inherent features of an electrical power system. However, the usefulness of stylized formulations that do not comprise these system elements may be severely limited. (author)

  2. Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

  3. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  4. Developing an Evidence-Based Epilepsy Risk Assessment eHealth Solution: From Concept to Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Craig; Shankar, Rohit; Hanna, Jane; McLean, Brendan; Osland, Alex; Milligan, Cathryn; Ball, Abbie; Jory, Caryn; Walker, Matthew

    2016-06-07

    Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is possibly the most common cause of death as a result of complications from epilepsy. The need to educate and regularly review risk for all patients with epilepsy is paramount, but rarely delivered in actual clinical practice. Evidence suggests that education around SUDEP and modifiable risk variables translate into better self-management of epilepsy. We aimed to develop and implement an eHealth solution to support education and self-management of risks, in epilepsy. We undertook an innovation pathways approach, including problem identification, feasibility assessment, design, implementation, and marketing. People with epilepsy were provided a smartphone-based app (Epilepsy Self-Monitor, EpSMon), which translates the clinical risk assessment tool into an educational and self-monitoring platform, for the self-management of epilepsy. Results include the success of the marketing campaign, and in what areas, with an estimated reach of approximately 38 million people. EpSMon has proved a success in academic and clinical circles, attracting awards and nominations for awards. The number of users of EpSMon, after 3 months, turned out to be lower than expected (N=221). A 4-month trial of the app in use in the United Kingdom, and the success of the marketing strategy, point to necessary changes to the model of delivery and marketing, summarized in this paper. These include the marketing message, user cost model, and need for the availability of an Android version. EpSMon has proven a success in respect to its reception by academics, clinicians, stakeholder groups, and the patients who use it. There is work needed to promote the model and increase its acceptability/attractiveness, including broadening the marketing message, increasing its availability, and reducing its cost. Future development and promotion of the tool will hopefully inform iterative design of its core features for a receptive audience and lead to increased uptake

  5. Structural analysis of oligopoly market based on the reflective game model by the example of telecommunication market in Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna A. Biryukova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective to analyze the possible structures of the oligopoly market distribution by the example of telecommunication industry in terms of the agentsrsquo reflexive behavior. nbsp Methods game theory economicmathematical modeling. Results the article states that one of the first objects in the game theory is an oligopoly market. Based on the analysis of game theory studies it was found that there is a need to achieve information equilibrium in reflexive games of three agents in the oligopoly market. To solve this problem we analyzed all possible representations of the agents leading to the set of games in the Russian telecommunications market for three agents OJSC ldquoMTSrdquo OJSC ldquoMegafonrdquo and OJSC ldquoVympelcomrdquo. Three reflection grades were studied 1 representations of the agent about other agents 2 representations of the agentrsquos perception of other agents about it and 3 representations of the agent about what its competitors think about the first agentrsquos opinion about the other two. As a result the general patterns were revealed of the expressions of conjectural variations in each case it was proved that further detailing of the reflection is not needed. As a result of calculations the models of informational equilibriums of the Russian telecommunication market were constructed for that the averaged values of the demand and cost functions parameters functions of cellular communication operators were taken. It was also revealed that in 2015 the actual telecommunication market in the Russian Federation qualitatively i.e. by the ratio of market shares was close to equilibrium on condition of first rank reflexive behavior for the case when the market leader OJSC ldquoMTSrdquo represents its counterparties ndash OJSC ldquoMegafonrdquo and OJSC ldquoVympelcomrdquo ndash as the driven agents. Scientific novelty the analytical expressions for the information equilibrium parameters issues and profits of the agents aggregate

  6. Supporting analysis and assessments quality metrics: Utility market sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohi, J. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)

    1996-10-01

    In FY96, NREL was asked to coordinate all analysis tasks so that in FY97 these tasks will be part of an integrated analysis agenda that will begin to define a 5-15 year R&D roadmap and portfolio for the DOE Hydrogen Program. The purpose of the Supporting Analysis and Assessments task at NREL is to provide this coordination and conduct specific analysis tasks. One of these tasks is to prepare the Quality Metrics (QM) for the Program as part of the overall QM effort at DOE/EERE. The Hydrogen Program one of 39 program planning units conducting QM, a process begun in FY94 to assess benefits/costs of DOE/EERE programs. The purpose of QM is to inform decisionmaking during budget formulation process by describing the expected outcomes of programs during the budget request process. QM is expected to establish first step toward merit-based budget formulation and allow DOE/EERE to get {open_quotes}most bang for its (R&D) buck.{close_quotes} In FY96. NREL coordinated a QM team that prepared a preliminary QM for the utility market sector. In the electricity supply sector, the QM analysis shows hydrogen fuel cells capturing 5% (or 22 GW) of the total market of 390 GW of new capacity additions through 2020. Hydrogen consumption in the utility sector increases from 0.009 Quads in 2005 to 0.4 Quads in 2020. Hydrogen fuel cells are projected to displace over 0.6 Quads of primary energy in 2020. In future work, NREL will assess the market for decentralized, on-site generation, develop cost credits for distributed generation benefits (such as deferral of transmission and distribution investments, uninterruptible power service), cost credits for by-products such as heat and potable water, cost credits for environmental benefits (reduction of criteria air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions), compete different fuel cell technologies against each other for market share, and begin to address economic benefits, especially employment.

  7. Quantitative assessment of selected policy instruments using the Western European MARKAL model. Phase III EU SAVE White and Green Project: Comparison of market-based instruments to promote energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mundaca, Luis; Santi, Federico

    2004-01-01

    This report summarises the modelling exercise carried out in order to assess the implications of selected policy instruments using the energy model of Western Europe (WEU) generated by the Market Allocation (MARKAL) modelling tool. The chosen methodology was the usage of the WEU MARKAL model for analysing the response of this energy system to the following policy instruments: White Certificates, Green Certificates, and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions trading. Results show that the order of magnitude of the effects of the analysed instruments depends on the target/cap that is applied. For the case of White Certificates, it can be observed that up to certain level (i.e., around 15% of cumulated energy savings by 2020 compared to the base case) energy savings are obtained at negative costs. Major savings occur in the residential sector for all the applied targets. Results for CO 2 emissions appear to be robust for the years 2015 and 2020, but it should also be observed that these emission trends are less robust for the years 2005 and 2010. Energy efficiency improvements for the WEU economy that are policy-induced around 6%, 9% and 15% for the low, medium and high target scenarios respectively. For the case of Green Certificates, results show that the sustained penetration of renewable energy sources is dominated by wind and biomass. By examining the autonomous fossil fuel intensity of the WEU economy, energy efficiency improvements that are policy induced account for around 1%, 4% and 6% for each scenario respectively. All the targets are technically possible. For the case of CO 2 emissions trading, due to the fact that these results address just the power sector, they must be seen as complementary of other modelling works that deal with a wider industrial coverage. In our case, the more ambitious the cap is, the lower the share of fossil fuels in electricity production becomes. The different trends for the electricity production seem to be less robust. Compared to

  8. Termination of Dynamic Contracts in an Equilibrium Labor Market Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Cheng

    2005-01-01

    I construct an equilibrium model of the labor market where workers and firms enter into dyamic contracts that can potentially last forever, but are subject to optimal terminations. Upon a termination, the firm hires a new worker, and the worker who is terminated receives a termination compensation from the firm and is then free to go back to the labor market to seek new employment opportunities and enter into new dynamic contracts. The model permits only two types of equilibrium terminations ...

  9. Power system models - A description of power markets and outline of market modelling in Wilmar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meibom, Peter; Morthorst, Poul Erik; Nielsen, Lars Henrik

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the Wilmar project is to investigate technical and economical problems related to large-scale deployment of renewable sources and to develop a modelling tool that can handle system simulations for a larger geographical region with anInternational power exchange. Wilmar is an abbreviati...... description of the power market models usedin Wilmar is given in the second part, though the mathematical presentations of the models are left out of this report and will be treated in a later publication from the project.......The aim of the Wilmar project is to investigate technical and economical problems related to large-scale deployment of renewable sources and to develop a modelling tool that can handle system simulations for a larger geographical region with anInternational power exchange. Wilmar is an abbreviation...... of “Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets”. The project was started in 2002 and is funded by the EU’s 5th Research programme on energy and environment. Risø National Laboratory isco-ordinator of the project and partners include SINTEF, Kungliga Tekniska Högskola, University of Stuttgart...

  10. Matrix Model for Choosing Green Marketing Sustainable Strategic Alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălina Sitnikov

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Green marketing examines the symbiotic role played by marketing in ensuring sustainable business, exploring issues concerning the environment and the way strategic decisions can influence it. At present, the environmental issues concern more and more the competitive approach any organization can implement. Based on this approach, organizations can gain competitive advantage by managing environmental variables and by developing and implementing green marketing strategies. Considering the importance and impact of green marketing, by using theoretical concepts and defining a set of research directions, the paper and the research conducted were focused on creating a matrix model for choosing the optimal green marketing strategy, oriented towards competitive advantage. The model is based on the correlation that can be established among the generic strategies of competitive advantage, the variables of extended marketing mix (7Ps and the green marketing strategy matrix. There are also analyzed the implications that may be generated within a company by the adoption of a green marketing strategy and its role in promoting the environmental benefits of products.

  11. E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

  12. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  13. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  14. Assessing the Impact of Wind/PV Power Generation and Market Policies on Decentralized Hybrid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    S.M. Arnoux, Luciana; Santiago, Leonardo

    In this paper, we offer a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of wind and photovoltaic power generation on decentralized hybrid systems. In particular, we focus on three performance measures of the energy system, namely reliability, costs, and efficiency. Most of the current studies focus...... level. Therefore, we appropriately assess the inherent uncertainty and design options. First, we use linear and quantile regression models to estimate the wind speed and solar insolation. Then, we use different quantiles as an input for the hybrid system design to assess market policies (e.g., net...

  15. Electricity Market Stochastic Dynamic Model and Its Mean Stability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanhui Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the deterministic dynamic model of electricity market proposed by Alvarado, a stochastic electricity market model, considering the random nature of demand sides, is presented in this paper on the assumption that generator cost function and consumer utility function are quadratic functions. The stochastic electricity market model is a generalization of the deterministic dynamic model. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, stochastic process theory, and eigenvalue techniques, the determining conditions of the mean stability for this electricity market model under small Gauss type random excitation are provided and testified theoretically. That is, if the demand elasticity of suppliers is nonnegative and the demand elasticity of consumers is negative, then the stochastic electricity market model is mean stable. It implies that the stability can be judged directly by initial data without any computation. Taking deterministic electricity market data combined with small Gauss type random excitation as numerical samples to interpret random phenomena from a statistical perspective, the results indicate the conclusions above are correct, valid, and practical.

  16. [Marketability of food supplements - criteria for the legal assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitweg-Lehmann, Evelyn

    2017-03-01

    To be placed on the market legally, food supplements have to meet national and European food law regulations. This is true for all substances used as well as for the labeling on the packaging of and the advertising for food supplements. The food business operator is responsible for its compliance with all regulations. Therefore, in this article, a concise step-by-step assessment is presented, covering all necessary legal requirements to market food supplements. Additionally, all steps are visualized in a flow chart. All vitamins, minerals and other substances used have to meet the legal conditions. Food business operators have to make sure that their products do not contain medicinal ingredients based on their pharmacologic effect. It is prohibited to place medicinal products as food supplements on the market. Furthermore, food business operators have to make sure that their products are not non-authorized novel foods according to the novel food regulation (EC) no. 258/97. Also, food supplements have to meet the requirements of article 14 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002 concerning the safety of foodstuff. Food shall not be placed on the market if it is unsafe. For food supplements that fail the German food-related legal standards but are legally manufactured in another EU member state or are legally put into circulation, the importer requires the so-called general disposition, which must be applied for at the BVL according to § 54 of the German Food and Feed Act. Another possibility for food which fails to meet German food law is to apply for a certificate of exemption according to § 68 of the Food and Feed Act. The food business operator has to meet the harmonized regulations concerning maximum and minimum levels of additives, flavors and enzymes. The packaging has to meet the compulsory labeling as well the voluntary labeling, like health claims. The BVL is also the relevant authority for other tasks concerning food supplements. A figure shows all

  17. Real and financial interacting markets: A behavioral macro-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a model in which the real sector and the stock market interact. •In the stock market there are optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists. •We detect the mechanisms through which instabilities get transmitted between markets. •In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”. •We show the effects of increasing the interaction degree between the two markets. -- Abstract: In the present paper we propose a model in which the real side of the economy, described via a Keynesian good market approach, interacts with the stock market with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists, that respectively overestimate and underestimate the reference value due to a belief bias. Agents may switch between optimism and pessimism according to which behavior is more profitable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first contribution considering both real and financial interacting markets and an evolutionary selection process for which an analytical study is performed. Indeed, employing analytical and numerical tools, we detect the mechanisms and the channels through which the stability of the isolated real and financial sectors leads to instability for the two interacting markets. In order to perform such analysis, we introduce the “interaction degree approach”, which allows us to study the complete three-dimensional system by decomposing it into two subsystems, i.e., the isolated financial and real markets, easier to analyze, that are then linked through a parameter describing the interaction degree between the two markets. We derive the stability conditions both for the isolated markets and for the whole system with interacting markets. Next, we show how to apply the interaction degree approach to our model. Among the various scenarios we are led to analyze, the most interesting one is that in which the isolated markets are stable, but their interaction is destabilizing

  18. Market Assessment and Product Evaluation of Probiotic Containing Dietary Supplements Available in Bangladesh Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjuman Ara Begum

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Probiotics containing food supplements available in Bangladesh market were identified and collected for assessment. To assess their label claim, they were resuspended into sterile distilled water. Then, series dilutions of each sample solution were prepared and immediately plated out, in duplicate, into De Man Rogosa Sharpe (MRS agar. These plates were then incubated at 37°C for 48 hours and colonies were counted. Viable cell numbers stated on the labels were compared with actual viable cell numbers. To assess the viability of the probiotics included in the products, probiotic strains were isolated from each of the four products and screened for inhibitory activity against six indicator strains. It was surprisingly found that although the viable cell numbers of all supplements were three to four log cycles lower than label claim of the products, however, this problem did not affect the inhibitory activity of the probiotic strains against indicator strains according to in vitro assessment. Legislation and regulation regarding prebiotic-probiotic containing products should be built up in Bangladesh to ensure quality products supply to the consumers. Moreover, manufacturers of probiotic containing products should take the responsibility for providing the consumer with scientifically and legally correct information.

  19. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for viral marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Siti Suhaila; Akil, Ku Azlina Ku; Chulan, Majdah; Sharif, Noorzila

    2017-11-01

    Viral marketing is a marketing strategy utilizes social media to spread information about a product or services provided. It is the most powerful way to share information in a short amount of time. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic of viral marketing within a time duration in the point of view of mathematics. This study used the epidemiological model known as Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). The model consists of a system of three differential equations with three state variables namely susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). It considers a case of SIR model with demography. Numerical experiments have been performed. The results show that viral marketing reaches its peak within two days. The online messages shared will become higher if the initial number of the infected individual has been increased.

  20. Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Oliveira, Fernando S.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we seek to develop some model-based insights into this two-stage dynamic process linking market interventions with individual company performance through strategic asset trading and structural change. Essentially, this is achieved with an evolutionary, agent-based, computational model that is capable of simulating how a Cournot player, by interacting with his opponents, can rationally adapt his generation portfolio in order to increase value. The functional capabilities of the proposed computational approach facilitate: 1) The study of asset portfolio adaptation as a result of rational choice. This cannot be achieved with a static Cournot model that, by construction, does not take into account endogenously the rational choice of the installed capacities and technologies used by the players. Further, this evolutionary computational model internalizes the ''path dependencies'' as one of the determinants of portfolio adaptation. 2) The analysis of market structure as an endogenous co-evolutionary process, enabling an adaptive view of the impact of short-term regulatory policies on the evolution of the industry's market structure. 3) The analysis of the behavioural implications f the rational adaptation of players to regulatory interventions. This analysis is carried-out by modelling how players trade their assets in order to improve the value of their portfolio. Our model therefore incorporates two main components: a plant trading game and an electricity market game. The plant trading game simulates the interaction between electricity companies that trade generation plants. The electricity market game simulates the performance of portfolios of plant in an electricity market assuming Cournot players. From this two-stage modelling platform, we analyze two sorts of anti-trust interventions: (a) the ''structural changes'' of enforced divestiture and (b) the ''behavioural remedies'' (sic Competition commission) of capacity availability requirements. We have

  1. An Assessment of the Impact of Information Technology on Marketing and Advertising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Hosseini

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of Technology on Marketing and Advertising by using structural equations modeling. To do this, 200 marketing and information technology (IT experts participated in the study. They answered questionnaires regarding IT, marketing mix and advertising. For data analysis, structural equations modeling using SMARTPLS were used. The results showed that the effect of IT on marketing mix and advertising was positive and significant. The effect of marketing mix on advertising was positive and significant. The indirect effect of IT on advertising via marketing mix was therefore positive and significant. Totally, the results emphasized the effect of technology on marketing mix and advertising.

  2. Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

    A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

  3. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  4. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  5. ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT TRENDS OF THE MARKET NANOCOSMETICS DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Korzh

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Today, nanotechnology has become one of the strategic directions of economic development of the leading countries. According to literary sources, it is established that more than 50 countries of the world are adopting national programs in this field of new knowledge, and various methods of nanotechnology have received the greatest development and application in microelectronics, aerospace, chemical, medical, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. It should be noted, that beauty is the most represented products with the use of nanotechnologies in the world. On the evaluation of the European Commission in 2009, the specific weight of cosmetics with nanoparticles amounted to 5%. The aim of the work was to assess the current trends of the market nanocosmetic photoprotectors development. In the last years in Ukraine the market of cosmetics is developing dynamically. Manufacturers of medical cosmetics invest heavily in scientific researches, patents, improvement of existing technologies. To determine the status of the security of the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine, we have analyzed the volume of sales and range of medical cosmetics, presented at the domestic market. In terms of sales volume in money terms of therapeutic cosmetics every year loses its position. Thus, the volume of sales in 2011, has decreased on 1,1 % in comparison with 2009. In Ukraine cosmetics of native production occupies 8% of the total volume of sales, cosmetics of foreign production - 92%. At the next stage of the research we have analyzed the medical cosmetic means, which are used for the prevention of photo-aging of the skin. In General, the Ukrainian market of medicinal cosmetics contains 125 trademarks of foreign and native manufacture. The largest share in the market of Ukraine belongs to the French medical cosmetics - 48,6 % of the total number of medical cosmetic means. It is represented by the various lines of medical cosmetics brands such: Vichy, Avene, RoC, Uriage

  6. Why Brazil Needed a New Market Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pereira, Mario Veiga; Rosenblatt, Jose; Barroso, Luiz Augusto

    2005-06-01

    This paper discusses how the issue of supply adequacy is treated in the Brazilian power market, analyzing lessons learned from past experiences and describing the solutions that are being implemented to reconcile competition in generation with an adequate supply. The primary goal of the initial reform process is Brazil was to ensure sufficient capacity and investment to serve reliably the country's growing economy. This work discusses the difficulties that were identified in its design in terms of supply reliability and the proposals and reforms introduced by two governments to correct them and to implement a design that reconciles competition in generation with a guarantee of adequate supply. It is shown that, due to the high influence of hydroelectric power, Brazilian spot prices do not provide clear economic signals for system expansion, which in turn make bilateral contracts a key element in the market design. Another difficulty that must be addressed is the need to provide adequate expansion in an environment where there is high uncertainty on demand growth levels

  7. United States industrial electric motor systems market opportunities assessment: Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    1998-12-01

    The Market Assessment is designed to be of value to manufacturers, distributors, engineers, and others in the supply channels for motor systems. It provides a detailed and highly differentiated portrait of their end-use markets.

  8. Assessment of citrus marketing in Benue and Kano states of Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of citrus marketing in Benue and Kano states of Nigeria. ... tends towards pure competition. Keywords: Benue, citrus, gini coefficient, Kano, marketing, pure competition, traders. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  9. Assessing the market for long-term care services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, J A; Taylor, S

    1984-02-01

    Traditionally, long-term care services have been used by a diverse marketplace. The chronically ill, developmentally disabled, mentally ill and aging population has looked to long-term care support services as a means of physical and emotional support. Much of the time these services were housed together for the sake of efficiency. The enormous burden these services are creating on the economy, and the growing aging population, have forced the recognition that long-term care service delivery systems must change. Alternate programming for long-term care services that reach out into the community and into individual homes is becoming an attractive approach to meeting the growing demands of the marketplace. Home health, specialized housing and creative funding mechanisms such as HMOs, are examples of initiatives undertaken by healthcare organizations that view diversification as a vehicle for survival. Market research techniques that have been used in other industries are being adapted to the healthcare industry to ensure the proper mix of services that are demanded by older, more knowledgeable consumers. The programs of the future will be market driven, with the ability of the individual to pay for such services playing a significant role. The healthcare provider of today is in a position to serve the community in new ways. By becoming an integral link in the long-term care system and by developing new programs, the organization can serve as a catalyst for change. It is up to the governing bodies and managers of these facilities to become visionaries and to accept responsibility for assessing the market for long-term care services and to guide their organization into the future.

  10. Canadian electricity exports and imports : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This energy market assessment (EMA) report focuses on recent trends in exports and imports of Canadian electricity and the associated revenue and pricing. It also outlines major developments in electricity markets in Canada and the United States in the past decade with reference to the implications of electricity trade for both consumers and the power industry. This guide comes at a time of market openings in Alberta and Ontario, and with recent increases in applications to the National Energy Board for electricity exports and international power lines. The first chapter presents an overview of current Canadian federal regulatory regime for electricity exports and restructuring of the electric power industry in Canada and the United States. The second chapter reviews electricity exports and imports from a national perspective. Provincial analyses were presented in the third chapter which also covered international interconnections, export and import trends, export and import pricing, implications for consumer prices, and factors affecting future trade. The final chapter presents some observations on each of these issues. It is noted that exports have fluctuated significantly from year to year due to specific events including the shutdown of nuclear power plants, high gas prices, and the California electricity crisis in 2000-2001. Canadian international electricity trade has continued to yield net revenues of $1 to $2 billion per year due to strong electricity export prices. The relationship between export and import prices varies from province to province. Canadian utilities have emphasized the need for more transmission to the U.S. to foster future trade and improve transmission reliability. refs., tabs., figs

  11. Retail gentrification. Staged spaces and the gourmet market model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz de Lourdes Cordero Gómez del Campo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Retail gentrification is understood as a process in which commercial activity is transformed to meet the needs of a sector of the population with higher incomes resulting in the displacement of merchants and products, seen from the implementation of the model of the gourmet market. This process, which is seen in the interest of copying the commercial formats of successful cases from gourmet markets such as the San Miguel Market in Madrid or the Borough Market in London, is linked to an offer aimed at satisfying consumption demands produced by a sector of the population that although not being equivalent concepts, different authors identify as cultural omnivores or creative class, coinciding in that these groups have a high cultural and economic capital. In the present work it is discussed how in Mexico City in the absence of the transformation of public markets into gourmet markets and with the inauguration of the Roma Market in 2014, the staging of commercial spaces labeled as gourmet markets has intensified and they are inserted in neighborhoods where they seek to generate development and links with the community, but because of their prices and the characteristics of the products they offer, they are beyond the reach of the local population.

  12. Microeconomics of the ideal gas like market models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabarti, Anindya S.; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

    2009-10-01

    We develop a framework based on microeconomic theory from which the ideal gas like market models can be addressed. A kinetic exchange model based on that framework is proposed and its distributional features have been studied by considering its moments. Next, we derive the moments of the CC model (Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 167) as well. Some precise solutions are obtained which conform with the solutions obtained earlier. Finally, an output market is introduced with global price determination in the model with some necessary modifications.

  13. A dynamic marketing model with best reply and inertia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bischi, Gian Italo; Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we consider a nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Farris et al. (2005) as a market share attraction model with two firms that decide marketing efforts over time according to best reply strategies with naïve expectations. The model also considers an adaptive adjustment toward best reply, a form of inertia or anchoring attitude, and we investigate the effects of heterogeneities among firms. A rich scenario of local and global bifurcations is obtained even with just two competing firms, and a comparison is proposed with apparently similar duopoly models based on repeated best reply dynamics with naïve expectations and adaptive adjustment.

  14. Modelling of hydro and wind power in the regulation market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiviluoma, J.; Holttinen, H.; Meibom, P.

    2006-01-01

    The amount of required regulation capacity in the power system is affected by the wind power prediction errors. A model has been developed which can evaluate the monetary effects of prediction errors. The model can be used to evaluate (1) the regulation costs of wind power, (2) regulation market prices including effects related to the participation of power producers in the regulating power market, (3) value of accurate wind forecasts and (4) the effect of decreasing the length of the spot market clearance. This article discusses the problems related to developing a realistic model of the regulating power market including the interaction between the spot market and the regulating power market. There are several issues that make things complicated. (1) How to calculate the minimum amount of needed secondary (minute) reserves. Traditionally the Nordic TSOs have used an N-1 criteria in each country to determine the required amounts of positive secondary reserve, but as installed wind power capacity grows, it will become relevant to include the wind power prediction errors in the estimation of secondary reserves. (2) Consumption forecast errors and plant outages also contribute to activation of regulating power and should have stochastic input series besides wind power. (3) Risk premiums and transaction costs in the regulating power market are difficult to estimate as well as the effects of the possible use of market power. This is especially true in the Nordic system with the high share of hydro power, since the water value and hydrological limitations make things more complex than in a thermal system. (4) The available regulation capacity is not necessarily equal to the truly available capacity. All producers don't participate in the regulation market although in principle they could. (orig.)

  15. The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Xiaobing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-11-06

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistent with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.

  16. Alternate entropy measure for assessing volatility in financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Ranjan; Hamacher, Kay

    2012-11-01

    We propose two alternate information theoretical approaches to assess non-Gaussian fluctuations in the return dynamics of financial markets. Specifically, we use superinformation, which is a measure of the disorder of the entropy of time series. We argue on theoretical grounds on its usefulness and show that it can be applied effectively for analyzing returns. A study of stock market data for over five years has been carried out using this approach. We show how superinformation helps to identify and classify important signals in the time series. The financial crisis of 2008 comes out very clearly in the superinformation plots. In addition, we introduce the super mutual information. Distinct super mutual information signatures are observed that might be used to mitigate idiosyncratic risk. The universality of our approach has been tested by carrying out the analysis for the 100 stocks listed in S&P100 index. The average superinformation values for the S&P100 stocks correlates very well with the VIX.

  17. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia; Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom

    2010-01-01

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  18. Vertical integration and market power. A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W.; Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration. (author)

  19. Vertical integration and market power: A model-based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunn, Derek W., E-mail: dbunn@london.ed [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Martoccia, Maria; Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, London (United Kingdom); Kim, Haein; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beom [Korean Electric Power Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-07-15

    An agent-based simulation model is developed using computational learning to investigate the impact of vertical integration between electricity generators and retailers on market power in a competitive wholesale market setting. It is observed that if partial vertical integration creates some market foreclosure, whether this leads to an increase or decrease in market power is situation specific. A detailed application to the Korean market structure reveals this to be the case. We find that in various cases, whilst vertical integration generally reduces spot prices, it can increase or decrease the market power of other market generators, depending upon the market share and the technology segment of the market, which is integrated, as well as the market concentrations before and after the integration.

  20. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.; Ellis, E.C.; Letourneau, A.

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here

  1. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verburg, Peter H [Institute for Environmental Studies, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Ellis, Erle C [Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250 (United States); Letourneau, Aurelien, E-mail: Peter.Verburg@ivm.vu.nl [UMR 5175 Centre d' Ecologie Fonctionnelle and Evolutive, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier cedex 5 (France)

    2011-07-15

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  2. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-07-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  3. A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verburg, Peter H; Ellis, Erle C; Letourneau, Aurelien

    2011-01-01

    Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

  4. Analysis of Spin Financial Market by GARCH Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference performed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to the parameter estimation of the GARCH model. It is found that volatility determined by the GARCH model exhibits ''volatility clustering'' also observed in the real financial markets. Using volatility determined by the GARCH model we examine the mixture-of-distribution hypothesis (MDH) suggested for the asset return dynamics. We find that the returns standardized by volatility are approximately standard normal random variables. Moreover we find that the absolute standardized returns show no significant autocorrelation. These findings are consistent with the view of the MDH for the return dynamics

  5. On Transaction-Cost Models in Continuous-Time Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Poufinas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs, built in certain recommended ways, have to be paid. Markets prove to behave in manners that resemble those of complete ones for a wide variety of transaction-cost types. The results are important, but not exclusively, for the pricing of options with transaction costs.

  6. An auction game model for pool-based electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gan, Deqiang; Wang, Jianquan; Bourcier, Donald V.

    2005-01-01

    A single-period auction game model for analyzing strategic behavior in pool-based electricity markets is introduced in the paper. We study the Nash equilibrium in a pure strategy sense of such games. First an equilibrium existence lemma is proved. Equilibrium characterization under tight capacity constraints is provided. Then it is demonstrated that an auction game does not possess a pure strategy Nash equilibrium under a wide range of market conditions. The paper provides a characterization of equilibrium under weak capacity constraints. We apply the introduced results to analyze market power indices presented in our earlier work and in related reports. Applications to actual market analysis, as well as limitations of the introduced model are provided. (author)

  7. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  8. Modeling financial markets by self-organized criticality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2015-10-01

    We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative pressure on market participants, showing how the spreading of information, based on a realistic imitative behavior, drives contagion and causes market fragility. In this model imitation is not intended as a change in the agent's group of origin, but is referred only to the price formation process. We introduce in the community also a variable number of random traders in order to study their possible beneficial role in stabilizing the market, as found in other studies. Finally, we also suggest some counterintuitive policy strategies able to dampen fluctuations by means of a partial reduction of information.

  9. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  10. Symmetry breaking in a bull and bear financial market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sushko, Iryna; Tramontana, Fabio; Westerhoff, Frank; Avrutin, Viktor

    2015-01-01

    We investigate bifurcation structures in the parameter space of a one-dimensional piecewise linear map with two discontinuity points. This map describes endogenous bull and bear market dynamics arising from a simple asset-pricing model. An important feature of our model is that some speculators only enter the market if the price is sufficiently distant to its fundamental value. Our analysis starts with the investigation of a particular case in which the map is symmetric with respect to the origin, associated with equal market entry thresholds in the bull and bear market. We then generalize our analysis by exploring how novel bifurcation structures may emerge when the map’s symmetry is broken.

  11. Inclusion of Switching Behaviour into Relationship Marketing Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alnaimi, Husam; Jones, Richard; Perkins, Helen

    2011-01-01

    Relationship marketing authors have attempted to develop distinct models suitable for investigating relationship marketing in different contexts. However, there is no agreement as yet about the antecedents that best capture the characteristics of the relational exchange that influences relationship...... marketing. Maintaining a long-term relationship with a customer is one of the fundamental factors determining the value that the customer provides to the company. A serious threat to achieving a long-term relationship is the customer’s switching behaviour. This study develops a theoretical model...... of relationship marketing, which includes customers’ switching behaviour (switchers and stayers), as a vital construct to understand the relationship development process between customers and service providers. Also, hypotheses to specify the association between the underlying models’ constructs were presented...

  12. The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinemann, Ronald

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

  13. Comparing Neural Networks and ARMA Models in Artificial Stock Market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krtek, Jiří; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 53-65 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : neural networks * vector ARMA * artificial market Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/krtek-comparing neural networks and arma models in artificial stock market.pdf

  14. Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sunghae Jun

    2011-01-01

    Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning) strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy m...

  15. Biofuel market and carbon modeling to evaluate French biofuel policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, F.; Prieur, A.

    2006-10-01

    In order to comply with European objectives, France has set up an ambitious biofuel plan. This plan is evaluated considering two criteria: tax exemption need and GHG emission savings. An economic marginal analysis and a life cycle assessment (LCA) are provided using a coupling procedure between a partial agro-industrial equilibrium model and a refining optimization model. Thus, we are able to determine the minimum tax exemption needed to place on the market a targeted quantity of biofuel by deducing the agro-industrial marginal cost of biofuel production to the biofuel refining long-run marginal revenue. In parallel, a biofuels LCA is carried out using model outputs. Such a method avoid common allocation problems between joint products. The French biofuel plan is evaluated for 2008, 2010 and 2012 using prospective scenarios. Results suggest that biofuel competitiveness depends on crude oil prices and petroleum products demands. Consequently, biofuel tax exemption does not always appear to be necessary. LCA results show that biofuels production and use, from 'seed to wheel', would facilitate the French Government's to compliance with its 'Plan Climat' objectives by reducing up to 5% GHG emissions in the French road transport sector by 2010. (authors)

  16. An econometric model of the South African stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Moolman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically.  However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse.  This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination.  The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.

  17. Theory and model use in social marketing health interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luca, Nadina Raluca; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    The existing literature suggests that theories and models can serve as valuable frameworks for the design and evaluation of health interventions. However, evidence on the use of theories and models in social marketing interventions is sparse. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify to what extent papers about social marketing health interventions report using theory, which theories are most commonly used, and how theory was used. A systematic search was conducted for articles that reported social marketing interventions for the prevention or management of cancer, diabetes, heart disease, HIV, STDs, and tobacco use, and behaviors related to reproductive health, physical activity, nutrition, and smoking cessation. Articles were published in English, after 1990, reported an evaluation, and met the 6 social marketing benchmarks criteria (behavior change, consumer research, segmentation and targeting, exchange, competition and marketing mix). Twenty-four articles, describing 17 interventions, met the inclusion criteria. Of these 17 interventions, 8 reported using theory and 7 stated how it was used. The transtheoretical model/stages of change was used more often than other theories. Findings highlight an ongoing lack of use or underreporting of the use of theory in social marketing campaigns and reinforce the call to action for applying and reporting theory to guide and evaluate interventions.

  18. A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A. Stan; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market...... and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants...

  19. Assessment of Perceived Corrupt Practices in Marketing of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    between selected socio-economic characteristics of women marketers and their perceived level of severity of identified corrupt ... Women participation in agricultural produce marketing is not a ... economic growth, democratic culture, national.

  20. Green power marketing in retail competition: an early assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiser, R.; Porter, K.; Fang, J.

    1999-01-01

    With retail competition being introduced throughout the United States, green power marketing offers the promise of customer-driven markets for renewable energy. This paper summarizes early experience with green marketing under full retail competition. We conclude that (1) niche markets exist today among residential and non-residential consumers for green power; (2) green demand may ultimately offer an important strategic market for renewable technologies, but the market is currently rather small and the long-term prospects remain uncertain; (3) the success of green markets will depend critically on the regulatory rules established at the onset of restructuring; and (4) the biomass industry will be forced to better communicate the environmental benefits of its technology in order to play a strong role within the green market. This paper is based on a more detailed NREL Topical Issues Brief, which is available on the Internet. (author)

  1. The modelling of education services and labour markets from marketing position

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savchenko Sergii Olegovych

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The methodology of decision preparation was created and implemented. It is based on imitational modeling of cooperation between education and labor markets. The constant increasing of information volume, its dependence on external environment state and internal organization was also included into the methodology. The main aim is increasing of effectiveness of the system of higher education institution management.

  2. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  3. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  4. Advanced Modeling of Renewable Energy Market Dynamics: May 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, M.; Little, R.; Lloyd, K.; Malikov, G.; Passolt, G.; Arent, D.; Swezey, B.; Mosey, G.

    2007-08-01

    This report documents a year-long academic project, presenting selected techniques for analysis of market growth, penetration, and forecasting applicable to renewable energy technologies. Existing mathematical models were modified to incorporate the effects of fiscal policies and were evaluated using available data. The modifications were made based on research and classification of current mathematical models used for predicting market penetration. An analysis of the results was carried out, based on available data. MATLAB versions of existing and new models were developed for research and policy analysis.

  5. RESEARCH OF COMPETITION IN DEPOSIT MARKET OF UKRAINE BASED ON THE PANZAR-ROSSE MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iryna Didenko

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The problem in an adequate assessment of the level of competition in the banking market has prompted researchers to search constantly some new methods. The most famous of them were later successfully adapted to the banking market, are a models of Bresnahan, Panzar-Rosse, Bertrand, Iwat, Monti-Klein-Modesto Barros and others. In Ukraine, the process of assessing the level of competition in the banking sector is very relevant, in line with the recent reforms of particular relevance and distribution. Regarding the domestic deposit market, there is a shortage of qualitative analysis of this issue, unlike foreign practice. Therefore this study we try to solve this problem. The key goal of researchers in this study is in a detailed analysis to identify the important factors which make influence on the allocated markets, in particular on lending and deposit rates. Based on these factors there could be implemented internal adjustment processes taking place in the markets. The purpose of the article is to determine the level of competition in the deposit market of Ukraine in 2006-2015 basing on nonstructural Panzar- Rosse model and identify key factors that affect this level. Methodology. To research the level of competition in the deposit market of Ukraine the Panzar-Rosse model was used, in which separate 11 models were built using the integrated tool “Multiple regression” in the software package of statistics analysis STATISTICA. The input data in the model was presented with the information on financial performance of Ukrainian banks during ten years from 01.01.2005 till 01.01.2015. Results of this research showed that in Ukrainian deposit market there is a monopolistic competition, as proved by the calculated values of H-statistics index. The year of 2008, in the context of the global economic crisis, was marked as an unbalanced period for deposit market of Ukraine. Practical implications. Knowing the current state of competition level in the

  6. A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

  7. The Interval Market Model in Mathematical Finance : Game Theoretic Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernhard, P.; Engwerda, J.C.; Roorda, B.; Schumacher, J.M.; Kolokoltsov, V.; Saint-Pierre, P.; Aubin, J.P.

    2013-01-01

    Toward the late 1990s, several research groups independently began developing new, related theories in mathematical finance. These theories did away with the standard stochastic geometric diffusion “Samuelson” market model (also known as the Black-Scholes model because it is used in that most famous

  8. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  9. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.; Teichmann, Josef; Wolfram, Marie Therese

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present

  10. Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2003-06-01

    We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

  11. Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo

    2015-01-01

    The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators...... have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models......, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform...

  12. IS CAPM AN EFFICIENT MODEL? ADVANCED VERSUS EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian IHNATOV

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available CAPM is one of the financial models most widely used by the investors all over the world for analyzing the correlation between risk and return, being considered a milestone in financial literature. However, in recently years it has been criticized for the unrealistic assumptions it is based on and for the fact that the expected returns it forecasts are wrong. The aim of this paper is to test statistically CAPM for a set of shares listed on New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Warsaw Stock Exchange and Bucharest Stock Exchange (developed markets vs. emerging markets and to compare the expected returns resulted from CAPM with the actually returns. Thereby, we intend to verify whether the model is verified for Central and Eastern Europe capital market, mostly dominated by Poland, and whether the Polish and Romanian stock market index may faithfully be represented as market portfolios. Moreover, we intend to make a comparison between the results for Poland and Romania. After carrying out the analysis, the results confirm that the CAPM is statistically verified for all three capital markets, but it fails to correctly forecast the expected returns. This means that the investors can take wrong investments, bringing large loses to them.

  13. Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Preus, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Baring-Gould, Ian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

  14. Models of Customer Behavior as a Basis of Marketing Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T A Ivanova

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of six main models of customer behavior in contemporary society and the specific tasks of marketing departments of companies at today's stage of development. The given models take into consideration: motives for choosing a product, the degree of product awareness and independence of choice, the degree of customer satisfaction with the product, lines and possibilities of making an impact on customer choice through marketing and promotion stimulation. The author believes that these models may serve as a basis in the formation of effective marketing strategies, as they describe the customers in all the stages of their actions in the process of buying products, accumulating and analyzing the experience of using them.

  15. An empirical and model study on automobile market in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Ji-Ying; Qiu, Rong; Zhou, Yueping; He, Da-Ren

    2006-03-01

    We have done an empirical investigation on automobile market in Taiwan including the development of the possession rate of the companies in the market from 1979 to 2003, the development of the largest possession rate, and so on. A dynamic model for describing the competition between the companies is suggested based on the empirical study. In the model each company is given a long-term competition factor (such as technology, capital and scale) and a short-term competition factor (such as management, service and advertisement). Then the companies play games in order to obtain more possession rate in the market under certain rules. Numerical simulation based on the model display a competition developing process, which qualitatively and quantitatively agree with our empirical investigation results.

  16. Comparison of two uranium-market forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleistein, S.; Recek, J.

    1983-01-01

    The techniques and methodologies, similarities and differences, and the results of two uranium market computer models - the Uranium Supply Analysis System and the EUREKA model - are surveyed. These models can be of use to electric utilities in developing procurement strategies or planning new reactor requirements. The models are designed to simulate actual market performance of the domestic uranium industry under varying user-specified assumptions. These models provide output in the form of projections of variables of interest, such as investment in exploration and new production capacity, additions to reserves and resources, and adjustments in inventories. Comparison between the models is demonstrative of how output can vary even with use of the same input data. Utilities may profit by the comparison with respect to the task of selecting models on the basis of obtaining the most-useful solution for a given problem. 18 figures

  17. INSIGHTS INTO QUALITATIVE VARIABLES ASSESSMENT IN MARKETING RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Catalina Timiras

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a number of issues to be taken into account in assessing the marketing qualitative variables. Thus, the opinions, the preferences, the attitudes, etc. of the consumers are qualitative variables whose measurement requires the use of different scales presented in the literature and, where appropriate, the researcher must develop scales adapted to the particularities of the study undertaken. Using a certain scale it is not random action. The literature presents both comparative methods and non-comparative scaling methods. Each of these categories generates certain types of information, and also they are complementary in the evaluation of various products, brands, organizations etc. Thus, if in a non-comparative scaling method can get information about how a product is evaluated (favorable or unfavorable, for example by the respondents, comparative scaling method allows us to determine where that product is in a series of investigated competing products. Another aspect to be taken into account in the construction of the scales is the number of levels used. It is intended to obtain information with high degree of detail, but without the risk of increasing the rate of non-response due to inability of respondents to make assessments through scales with too many levels. Finally, the expression used to collect information from respondents is essential in obtaining accurate and comparable information, with the emphasis on avoiding ambiguity in drawing scales.

  18. Biofuel market and carbon modeling to analyse French biofuel policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, F.; Prieur, A.

    2007-01-01

    In order to comply with European Union objectives, France has set up an ambitious biofuel plan. This plan is evaluated on the basis of two criteria: tax exemption on fossil fuels and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission savings. An economic marginal analysis and a life cycle assessment (LCA) are provided using a coupling procedure between a partial agro-industrial equilibrium model and an oil refining optimization model. Thus, we determine the minimum tax exemption needed to place on the market a targeted quantity of biofuel by deducting the biofuel long-run marginal revenue of refiners from the agro-industrial marginal cost of biofuel production. With a clear view of the refiner's economic choices, total pollutant emissions along the biofuel production chains are quantified and used to feed an LCA. The French biofuel plan is evaluated for 2008, 2010 and 2012 using prospective scenarios. Results suggest that biofuel competitiveness depends on crude oil prices and demand for petroleum products and consequently these parameters should be taken into account by authorities to modulate biofuel tax exemption. LCA results show that biofuel production and use, from 'seed to wheel', would facilitate the French Government's compliance with its 'Plan Climat' objectives by reducing up to 5% GHG emissions in the French road transport sector by 2010

  19. Investigating Effective Components of Higher Education Marketing and Providing a Marketing Model for Iranian Private Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmaee, Roya Babaee; Nadi, Mohammad Ali; Shahtalebi, Badri

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study and identify the effective components of higher education marketing and providing a marketing model for Iranian higher education private sector institutions. Design/methodology/approach: This study is a qualitative research. For identifying the effective components of higher education marketing and…

  20. Emerging technologies in electricity generation : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) monitors the supply of electricity as well as its demand in both domestic and export markets. It monitors the main drivers affecting current trends in generation, demand, prices, infrastructure additions, and inter-regional and international trade. This document presented an assessment of renewable and other emerging technologies that are considered to have significant promise and increased application in Canada over the longer term. It provided comprehensive information on the status and prospects for these technologies, related issues and regional perspectives. Alternative and renewable resources and demand management are becoming more important in addressing air quality issues and supply adequacy. In preparation of this report, staff at the NEB participated in a series of informal meetings with electric utilities, independent power producers, provincial energy regulators, power system operators and those engaged in technology development. The report involved on-site information gathering at wind farms, small hydro facilities, biomass, solar and geothermal operations and other facilities associated with emerging energy technologies such as fuel cells and ocean energy. Clean coal technologies that refer to methods by which emissions from coal-fired generation can be reduced were also evaluated. It was noted that the prospects for emerging technologies vary among the provinces and territories depending on regional resources, provincial government policies and strategies regarding fuel preferences. It was noted that currently in Canada, only 3 per cent of the installed generating capacity consists of emerging technologies. This low penetration is due to the low cost of electricity derived from conventional sources and to the structure of the industry in which large publicly owned utilities have historically opted for large central generating stations. It was suggested that the large increase in fossil fuel prices, public concern

  1. ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL MARKETING STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Savelyev

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article concerns with essence of assessment of the business environment and specific directions of analysis during the working out of global marketing strategy. The classification of the global marketing environment researches and tasks sequence in the context of the decisions made on each stage of global marketing strategy is proposed.

  2. Teaching Students How to Integrate and Assess Social Networking Tools in Marketing Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlee, Regina Pefanis; Harich, Katrin R.

    2013-01-01

    This research is based on two studies that focus on teaching students how to integrate and assess social networking tools in marketing communications. Study 1 examines how students in marketing classes utilize social networking tools and explores their attitudes regarding the use of such tools for marketing communications. Study 2 focuses on an…

  3. 76 FR 65694 - Non-Market Economy Antidumping Proceedings: Assessment of Antidumping Duties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-24

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Non-Market Economy Antidumping... refining its practice to instruct CBP to liquidate such entries at the non-market economy (``NME'')-wide... Non-Market Economy Antidumping Proceedings: Assessment of Antidumping Duties, 76 FR 34046 (June 10...

  4. An Assessment of the Impact of Information Technology on Marketing and Advertising

    OpenAIRE

    Z. Hosseini; S. Mohammadi; H. Safari

    2018-01-01

    The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of Technology on Marketing and Advertising by using structural equations modeling. To do this, 200 marketing and information technology (IT) experts participated in the study. They answered questionnaires regarding IT, marketing mix and advertising. For data analysis, structural equations modeling using SMARTPLS were used. The results showed that the effect of IT on marketing mix and advertising was positive and significant. The effect of marketi...

  5. Assessing demand for physical objects among marketing agencies : market research for Alphaform RPI Oy

    OpenAIRE

    Popova, Oxana

    2012-01-01

    The market for 3D printing services is projected to grow significantly. A service provider of 3D printing and rapid prototyping services, Alphaform RPI Oy recognizes that there are numerous growth opportunities that can be exploited. A market research was initiated by the case company to look for any emerging trends to use physical objects. The study was focused on exploring marketing agencies and their vision on 3D printing and rapid prototyping services. Theoretical framework was built ...

  6. DEVELOPING A SEVEN METAPHORS MODEL OF MARKETING FOR UNIVERSITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COITA Dorin-Cristian

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The concept of marketing applied in education offers a lot of possibilities of social innovation. It is a tool helping educational organization to acquire resources and to provide value. In this article presented a model of seven metaphors to be used by a universities in order to acquire resources and to provide value to its stakeholders and applied it in the case of a Romanian university called The University. The aim of the paper is to identify sources of social innovations by using this model in the field of educational marketing.

  7. The wood pellet market in Austria: A structural market model analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristöfel, Christa; Strasser, Christoph; Schmid, Erwin; Morawetz, Ulrich B.

    2016-01-01

    EU bioenergy policies and oil price hikes have resulted in a significant increase of installed pellet boilers for residential heating. Hence, European demand for wood pellets has been growing faster and more steadily than supply leading to rising market prices in recent years. This article presents an econometric analysis of demand and supply of wood pellets in the residential heating sector in Austria, one of the most dynamic markets for residential pellets. Annual and monthly time series data between 2000 and 2014 are used in a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression to estimate supply and demand elasticities of wood pellets. In all model specifications, pellets demand is found to be inelastic (from −0.66 to −0.76) and pellets supply unit-elastic (from 1.03 to 1.18). Thus, consumers are highly exposed to price changes resulting from supply shocks. Policies which support investments in pellet boilers will shift the demand of wood pellets and likely leading to higher prices for consumers. - Highlights: • Characterisation of the European pellet market. • A structural market model for wood pellets in Austria. • Estimation of supply and demand price elasticities using a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) regression. • Pellets demand is found to be inelastic and pellets supply unit-elastic in the short run. • Policies stimulating demand will likely increase pellet and sawmill by-product prices.

  8. Optimizing the structure of the natural gas market using an agent-based modeling framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Benthem, M.

    2010-01-14

    applications of the modeling framework. It contains a series of seven increasingly complex models, detailing the functionality of the modeling framework. Some general conclusions are drawn based on these models. In addition, the possibilities of using the framework as a tool for educational gaming are explained. In Chapter 6, two models of the Dutch natural gas market are developed, one of which corresponds to the pre-liberalization structure of the Dutch market and one to its post-liberalization structure. The performance of both models is then compared to assess the impact of liberalization on the Dutch market. In Chapter 7, the post-liberalization model of the Dutch natural gas market is used to perform a scenario study, in which three trends are extrapolated to the future and their impacts are studied. These trends are the transition to a sustainable energy system, the integration of the Dutch market within a single European market, and the behavioral changes induced by the liberalized market. Finally, Chapter 8 summarizes the previous chapters and provides some overall conclusions and recommendations regarding the design and implementation of natural gas policy. The study ends with some ideas for the further development of the modeling framework.

  9. Optimizing the structure of the natural gas market using an agent-based modeling framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Benthem, M.

    2010-01-01

    applications of the modeling framework. It contains a series of seven increasingly complex models, detailing the functionality of the modeling framework. Some general conclusions are drawn based on these models. In addition, the possibilities of using the framework as a tool for educational gaming are explained. In Chapter 6, two models of the Dutch natural gas market are developed, one of which corresponds to the pre-liberalization structure of the Dutch market and one to its post-liberalization structure. The performance of both models is then compared to assess the impact of liberalization on the Dutch market. In Chapter 7, the post-liberalization model of the Dutch natural gas market is used to perform a scenario study, in which three trends are extrapolated to the future and their impacts are studied. These trends are the transition to a sustainable energy system, the integration of the Dutch market within a single European market, and the behavioral changes induced by the liberalized market. Finally, Chapter 8 summarizes the previous chapters and provides some overall conclusions and recommendations regarding the design and implementation of natural gas policy. The study ends with some ideas for the further development of the modeling framework.

  10. Assessment of online marketing communications of an automotive company - A case study of Jaguar Cars, Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Bendzovska, Daniela; Blomqvist, Michelle; Rubenstein, Sara

    2008-01-01

    Over the years, the traditional face of marketing has changed. Companies need to adopt ongoing marketing strategies to stay ahead of their competitors; the design and content of their strategies continue to evolve. In this thesis a case study has been conducted on one company within the automotive industry in Sweden. The case study was performed on Jaguar Cars in Sweden and an assessment of their use of Online Marketing Communication (OMC) as a marketing tool was made. The case study indicat...

  11. Modeling of market segmentation for new IT product development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasiopoulos, Dimitrios K.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Mavrogianni, Amanda

    2015-02-01

    Businesses from all Information Technology sectors use market segmentation[1] in their product development[2] and strategic planning[3]. Many studies have concluded that market segmentation is considered as the norm of modern marketing. With the rapid development of technology, customer needs are becoming increasingly diverse. These needs can no longer be satisfied by a mass marketing approach and follow one rule. IT Businesses can face with this diversity by pooling customers[4] with similar requirements and buying behavior and strength into segments. The result of the best choices about which segments are the most appropriate to serve can then be made, thus making the best of finite resources. Despite the attention which segmentation gathers and the resources that are invested in it, growing evidence suggests that businesses have problems operationalizing segmentation[5]. These problems take various forms. There may have been a rule that the segmentation process necessarily results in homogeneous groups of customers for whom appropriate marketing programs and procedures for dealing with them can be developed. Then the segmentation process, that a company follows, can fail. This increases concerns about what causes segmentation failure and how it might be overcome. To prevent the failure, we created a dynamic simulation model of market segmentation[6] based on the basic factors leading to this segmentation.

  12. Evolutionary thinking in microeconomic models: prestige bias and market bubbles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Viliami Bell

    Full Text Available Evolutionary models broadly support a number of social learning strategies likely important in economic behavior. Using a simple model of price dynamics, I show how prestige bias, or copying of famed (and likely successful individuals, influences price equilibria and investor disposition in a way that exacerbates or creates market bubbles. I discuss how integrating the social learning and demographic forces important in cultural evolution with economic models provides a fruitful line of inquiry into real-world behavior.

  13. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  14. Wages and Subjective Assessments of Regional Labour Market Pressure

    OpenAIRE

    Carlsen, Fredrik; Johansen, Kåre

    2002-01-01

    We utilise a rich set of regional labour market variables to explain regional variation in Norwegian manufacturing wages. In particular, regional indicators of labour market pressure are computed from survey data in which respondents are asked to evaluate local job prospects. We find that average reported satisfaction with local job prospects and other survey-based indicators perform better in regional wage equations than traditional labour market variables, including the regional unemploymen...

  15. Assessment of private sector anticipatory response to greenhouse gas market development : Final analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forrister, D.; Marsh, D.; Varilek, M.

    2002-01-01

    Some active markets in greenhouse gases are beginning to emerge, which will lead to actual data concerning market performance becoming available and rendering the prediction of future prices for global greenhouse gas reductions more accurate. Market participants use studies as a starting point for the calibration of their understanding then seize opportunities in the external market and therefore refine their price expectations. In addition, they attempt to outperform their competitors. In this study, the authors reviewed the results of some of the most recent economic modeling results, synthesized pricing data, assessed the price and risk expectations of a broad range of corporate market players and examined their response strategies. The authors also took advantage of their expertise as market brokers to offer their views. The representatives of 35 companies operating in Canada, the United States, Japan, the European Union and Russia were interviewed for this study. Their price expectations were just over 5 dollars per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2005 before the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, and raised to an average of 11 dollars per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2010. The major assumption was that the Kyoto Protocol would begin to take effect in 2002, and also that the United States would fail to ratify the Protocol. The respondents believed that some demand would force state and/or local programs to be implemented for a carbon reduction program. Poorly harmonized or delayed national policies, the potential costs of the Clean Development Mechanism projects and national pressure to take action at home are some of the concerns expressed which could prevent prices from becoming fully efficient. 41 refs., 6 tabs., 4 figs

  16. A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

    2017-02-01

    A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

  17. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  18. Assessing the benefits of residential demand response in a real time distribution energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siano, Pierluigi; Sarno, Debora

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A new probabilistic methodology, integrating DR in a distribution energy market is proposed. • The method can alleviate distribution network congestions. • This method based on D-LMPs allows cost savings for end-user customers. • Innovative thermal and shiftable loads Real Time control algorithms are also presented. - Abstract: In the field of electricity distribution networks and with the advent of smart grids and microgrids, the use of Distribution Locational Marginal Price (D-LMPs) in a Real Time (RT) distribution market managed by a Distribution System Operator (DSO) is discussed in presence of empowered residential end-users that are able to bid for energy by a demand aggregator while following Demand Response (DR) initiatives. Each customer is provided by a transactive controller, which reads the locational market signals and answers with a bid taking into account the user preferences about some appliances involved in DR activities and controlled by smart plugs-in. In particular, Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) appliances and shiftable loads are controlled so that their consumption profile can be modified according to the price of energy. In order to assess the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of energy and cost saving, an innovative probabilistic methodology for evaluating the impact of residential DR choices considering uncertainties related to load demand, user preferences, environmental conditions, house thermal behavior and wholesale market trends has been proposed. The uncertainties related to the stochastic variations of the variables involved are modeled by using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method. The combination of MCS and RT distribution market simulation based on D-LMPs are used to assess the operation and impact of the DR method over one month. Simulations results on an 84-buses distribution network confirmed that the proposed method allows saving costs for residential end-users and making

  19. Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    There is not enough marketing of dentistry; but there certainly is too much selling of poor quality service that is being passed off as dentistry. The marketing concept makes the patient and the patients' needs the ultimate criteria of marketing efforts. Myths and good practices for effective marketing that will promote oral health are described under the traditional four "Ps" categories of "product" (best dental care), "place" (availability), "promotion" (advertising and other forms of making patients aware of available services and how to use them), and "price" (the total cost to patients of receiving care).

  20. Heterarcical market: Dynamical interplay between time and space in the continuous interaction in a market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, Kazuto; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio; Kinoshita, Tetsuo

    2017-07-01

    Multi-agent models of robust open systems such as natural systems are the important theme in the literature of systems science. Heterarchy, which means dynamical hierarchy, is a structural model, which includes the dynamical interplay between different levels. However, it is not easy to build a formal model of a heterarchical system because the interplay between different levels lead a self-referential paradox. In this paper, we propose an continuous double auction model, which includes a formal model of conitnuous transaction. We encode the model into a restriction rule of the order submittion. The proposed model shows a critical behavior of the actual markets, and it can have the relationship with the behaviors of natural systems.

  1. Modeling Market Shares of Competing (e)Care Providers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ooteghem, Jan; Tesch, Tom; Verbrugge, Sofie; Ackaert, Ann; Colle, Didier; Pickavet, Mario; Demeester, Piet

    In order to address the increasing costs of providing care to the growing group of elderly, efficiency gains through eCare solutions seem an obvious solution. Unfortunately not many techno-economic business models to evaluate the return of these investments are available. The construction of a business case for care for the elderly as they move through different levels of dependency and the effect of introducing an eCare service, is the intended application of the model. The simulation model presented in this paper allows for modeling evolution of market shares of competing care providers. Four tiers are defined, based on the dependency level of the elderly, for which the market shares are determined. The model takes into account available capacity of the different care providers, in- and outflow distribution between tiers and churn between providers within tiers.

  2. A Hybrid Setarx Model for Spikes in Tight Electricity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Lucheroni

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses a simple looking but highly nonlinear regime-switching, self-excited threshold model for hourly electricity prices in continuous and discrete time. The regime structure of the model is linked to organizational features of the market. In continuous time, the model can include spikes without using jumps, by defining stochastic orbits. In passing from continuous time to discrete time, the stochastic orbits survive discretization and can be identified again as spikes. A calibration technique suitable for the discrete version of this model, which does not need deseasonalization or spike filtering, is developed, tested and applied to market data. The discussion of the properties of the model uses phase-space analysis, an approach uncommon in econometrics. (original abstract

  3. A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, Ofir D., E-mail: rubino@agri.huji.ac.i [Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, P.O. Box 12, Rehovot 76100 (Israel); Babcock, Bruce A., E-mail: babcock@iastate.ed [Department of Economics, Iowa State University, 578F Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States); Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1070 (United States)

    2011-05-15

    The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: {yields} The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. {yields} Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. {yields} Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. {yields} It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. {yields} Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

  4. A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: → The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. → Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. → Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. → It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. → Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

  5. Latin America wind market assessment. Forecast 2013-2022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-15

    Wind Power Activities by Country: Developers/Owners, Wind Plant Sizes, Wind Turbines Deployed, Commissioning Dates, Market Share, and Capacity Forecasts Latin American markets are a subject of intense interest from the global wind industry. Wind plant construction across Latin America is modest compared to the more established markets like the United States, Europe, and China, but it is an emerging market that is taking off at a rapid pace. The region has become the hottest alternative growth market for the wind energy industry at a time when growth rates in other markets are flat due to a variety of policy and macroeconomic challenges. Globalization is driving sustainable economic growth in most Latin American countries, resulting in greater energy demand. Wind is increasingly viewed as a valuable and essential answer to increasing electricity generation across most markets in Latin America. Strong wind resources, coupled with today's sophisticated wind turbines, are providing cost-effective generation that is competitive with fossil fuel generation. Most Latin American countries also rely heavily on hydroelectricity, which balances well with variable wind generation. Navigant Research forecasts that if most wind plants under construction with planned commissioning go online as scheduled, annual wind power installations in Latin America will grow from nearly 2.2 GW in 2013 to 4.3 GW by 2022. This Navigant Research report provides a comprehensive view of the wind energy market dynamics at play in Latin America. It offers a country-by-country analysis, outlining the key energy policies and development opportunities and barriers and identifying which companies own operational wind plants and which wind turbine vendors supplied those projects. Market forecasts for wind power installations, capacity, and market share in Latin America, segmented by country and company, extend through 2022. The report also offers an especially close analysis of Brazil and Mexico

  6. Economic assessment and optimal operation of CSP systems with TES in California electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Alexander W.; Dyreson, Ana; Miller, Franklin; Zavala, Victor M.

    2017-06-01

    The economics and performance of concentrated power (CSP) systems with thermal energy storage (TES) inherently depend on operating policies and the surrounding weather conditions and electricity markets. We present an integrated economic assessment framework to quantify the maximum possible revenues from simultaneous energy and ancillary services sales by CSP systems. The framework includes both discrete start-up/shutdown restrictions and detailed physical models. Analysis of coinci-dental historical market and meteorological data reveals provision of ancillary services increases market revenue 18% to 37% relative to energy-only participation. Surprisingly, only 53% to 62% of these revenues are available through sole participation in the day-ahead market, indicating significant opportunities at faster timescales. Motivated by water-usage concerns and permitting requirements, we also describe a new nighttime radiative-enhanced dry-cooling system with cold-side storage that consumes no water and offers higher effciencies than traditional air-cooled designs. Operation of this new system is complicated by the cold-side storage and inherent coupling between the cooling system and power plant, further motivating integrated economic analysis.

  7. Models and Practice of Retail Location on the Romanian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard Cazabat,

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes a review of the main types of location, respectively of probability models, gravity models, utility models, location- allocation, but also of new spatial analysis instruments. In this context, we emphasize the fact that the new location models, based on a geographic information system and the Big Data analysis instruments, open new opportunities for the practical location decision based on a larger set of criteria and by taking the market dynamics into account. The paper has the following objectives: to study the theoretical basis of location models, i.e. of the criteria (the variables used and to compare them with the criteria used currently in decision-making practice. The study is based on qualitative research investigating the opinions of decision -makers in the area of distribution regarding the location strategy of new stores. The research findings confirm the existence of differences between the criteria retained by location models and the practice of distribution companies on the Romanian market. This type of approach – models and practices of location for distribution companies – is a novelty for the Romanian market. The study can be useful both for research (perfecting the location models vis-a-vis present-day evolutions of the business environment, as well as for the decision makers in distribution (the valorization of research findings in decisionmaking practice.

  8. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 54, č. 1 (2017), s. 148-155 ISSN 1007-5704 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Ising model * Efficient market hypothesis * Monte Carlo simulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.784, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kristoufek-0474986.pdf

  9. An export-marketing model for pharmaceutical firms (the case of iran).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

    2013-01-01

    Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalization process, followed by examining different methods and models for assessing preparation for export activities and examining conceptual model based on a single case study method on a basket of seven leading domestic firms by using mainly questionares as the data gathering tool along with interviews for bias reduction. Finally, in keeping with the study objectives, the special aspects of the pharmaceutical marketing environment have been covered, revealing special dimensions of pharmaceutical marketing that have been embedded within the appropriate base model. The new model for international activities of pharmaceutical companies was refined by expert opinions extracted from result of questionnaires.

  10. An Export-Marketing Model for Pharmaceutical Firms (The Case of Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh, Mehdi; Aryanpour, Narges

    2013-01-01

    Internationalization is a matter of committed decision-making that starts with export marketing, in which an organization tries to diagnose and use opportunities in target markets based on realistic evaluation of internal strengths and weaknesses with analysis of macro and microenvironments in order to gain presence in other countries. A developed model for export and international marketing of pharmaceutical companies is introduced. The paper reviews common theories of the internationalization process, followed by examining different methods and models for assessing preparation for export activities and examining conceptual model based on a single case study method on a basket of seven leading domestic firms by using mainly questionares as the data gathering tool along with interviews for bias reduction. Finally, in keeping with the study objectives, the special aspects of the pharmaceutical marketing environment have been covered, revealing special dimensions of pharmaceutical marketing that have been embedded within the appropriate base model. The new model for international activities of pharmaceutical companies was refined by expert opinions extracted from result of questionnaires. PMID:24250597

  11. Assessment of cattle marketing practices in Guradamole woreda, Bale zone of Oromia regional state, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejene Taye

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to assess cattle marketing practice in the crop-livestock production system areas of the highland, mid-altitude and pastoralists in the lowlands of Guradamole Woreda of Bale zone of Ethiopia. That is conducted from July 2015 to 2015 March. Cattle marketing practice were assessed based on market monitoring and questionnaire survey in each altitude. A total of 100 farmers were selected randomly from 10 peasant associations which are selected from each altitude based on proportion of peasant association in each altitude. Market monitoring was done at two livestock marketing places of Rayitu town and Jibri, which is capital city of Guradamole Woreda. Cattle marketing varied considerably across the peasant associations and marketing places. Cattle supplied to markets include calves, heifers, bulls and oxen, dry and lactating cows. Who often supply cattle to marketing places are farmers and pastoralists from Guradamole Woreda and neighboring ethnic societies. Livestock market infrastructure and management are among the key constraints to the development and sustainable management of livestock markets. Long trekking distances to markets are a significant impediment to pastoralists’ ability to profitably sell their cattle. During drought periods, animals lose weight on the journey to market, which significantly lowers their value. In some cases, animals are too weak to embark on the homeward journey, forcing producers to sell at very low prices. Poor and uneven access to market information remains a major constraint for market actors and producers in particular. Observations at market sites point to an imbalance in the bargaining power of traders and producers. Traders collude and jointly determine prices ahead of market day and producers have very little or no ability to negotiate prices.

  12. An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1979-01-01

    A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

  13. A stochastic model for the financial market with discontinuous prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leda D. Minkova

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper models some situations occurring in the financial market. The asset prices evolve according to a stochastic integral equation driven by a Gaussian martingale. A portfolio process is constrained in such a way that the wealth process covers some obligation. A solution to a linear stochastic integral equation is obtained in a class of cadlag stochastic processes.

  14. Systemic Modelling for Relating Labour Market to Vocational Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papakitsos, Evangelos C.

    2016-01-01

    The present study introduces a systemic model that demonstrates a description of the relationship between the labour-market and vocational education from the perspective of systemic theory. Based on the application of the relevant methodology, the two open social systems are identified and analyzed. Their key-features are presented and the points…

  15. A risk reserve model for hedging in incomplete markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minina, V.; Vellekoop, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to the pricing and hedging problem for contingent claims in incomplete markets. We assume that traders wish to maximize the expected final payoff of the hedging portfolio and the claims, and we avoid the use of utility functions. Instead, we model how traders are

  16. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  17. Assessment of the sweetpotato market structure in Nasarawa state ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Product differentiation existed and there were little or no barriers to entry into the sweetpotato market. The Gini Coefficient values of 0.5457 (wholesalers) and 0.6001 (retailers) were recorded, indicating an existence of some degree of sellers' concentration. This implies that sweetpotato market is an imperfect competitive ...

  18. System Dynamics Modeling of the Massachusetts SREC Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rickerson

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available As states across the country struggle to increase local development of renewable energy, policymakers are turning to innovative program designs to meet their renewable electricity targets. Massachusetts recently adopted a unique, auction-based price support mechanism for the solar portion of its renewable portfolio standard. During the program development process, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER used system dynamics to simulate potential solar renewable energy certificate market conditions under the proposed regulations. The modeling exercise resulted in several program design changes that will lead to a more stable certificate market. System dynamics can be a useful tool for developing and improving sustainability programs.

  19. Equation-based model for the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O C; Atman, A P F; de Magalhães, A R Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  20. Market orientation in the mental models of decision-makers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.; Trondsen, Torbjørn; Campos, Emilio Gonzalo

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study determines whether predictions about different degrees of market orientation in two cross-border value chains also appear in the mental models of decision makers at two levels of these value chains. Design: The laddering method elicits mental models of actors in two value chains......: Norwegian salmon exported to Japan and Danish pork exported to Japan. The analysis of the mental models centers on potential overlap and linkages between actors in the value chain, including elements in the mental models that may relate to the actors' market orientation. Findings: In both value chains......, decision makers exhibit overlap in their views of what drives their business. The pork chain appears dominated by a focus on efficiency, technology, and quality control, though it also acknowledges communication as important. The salmon chain places more emphasis on new product development and good...

  1. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  2. Equation-based model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  3. ONE APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE SIZE AND CAPACITY OF THE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly V. Korotkov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to study the economic and statistical essence and development of methods of calculation of the market’s size and capacity. Described further material is focused on experts on statistics of the market of goods and services, as well as marketers. Evaluation of size and capacity market is an extremely demanded in practice. However, a review of publications, scientific direction of research is the size and capacity of the market is not yet complete. Researchers are working to develop new approaches to the assessment of the market and to develop relevant procedures. Problems arise distinction between the notions of demand and market capacity. Theoretical basis of the research are the provisions of the economic theory, statistics of the market of goods and services, and marketing.

  4. Viva Voce (Oral Examination) as an Assessment Method: Insights from Marketing Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Glenn; Lee, Geoffrey

    2009-01-01

    Viva voce (viva) or oral examinations are widely used in medical education, clinical examinations, and doctoral defenses, yet the assessment method is seldom adopted by university marketing departments. Correspondingly, the marketing education literature makes no reference to vivas as an alternative academic assessment technique. This research…

  5. A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.

  6. Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter A.

    2016-10-04

    In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.

  7. ASSESSING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET FACTORS AND REGIONAL PRICE DYNAMICS IN U.S. CATTLE MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Walburger, Allan M.; Foster, Kenneth A.

    1997-01-01

    Regional live cattle prices are decomposed into two components: (a) a trend common to all regional cattle price series and (b) regional deviations or price dynamics around that trend. Tests are developed to determine if market factors are related to the regional price deviations around a common trend. Slaughter volume, distance between a market and the next closest, and forward contract deliveries are significantly related to price deviations from the estimated common trend.

  8. Multi-Level Marketing as a business model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Gregor

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi Level Marketing is a very popular business model in the Western countries. It is a kind of hybrid of the method of distribution of goods and the method of building a sales network. It is one of the safest (carries a very low risk ways of conducting a business activity. The knowledge about functioning of this business model, both among theoreticians (scanty literature on the subject and practitioners, is still insufficient in Poland. Thus, the presented paper has been prepared as — in the Authors' opinion — it, at least infinitesimally, bridges the gap in the recognition of Multi Level Marketing issues. The aim of the study was, first of all, to describe Multi Level Marketing, to indicate practical benefits of this business model as well as to present basic systems of calculating a commission, which are used in marketing plans of companies. The discussion was based on the study of literature and the knowledge gained in the course of free-form interviews with the leaders of the sector.

  9. A multidirectional communication model: implications for social marketing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thackeray, Rosemary; Neiger, Brad L

    2009-04-01

    The landscape of sending and receiving information has changed dramatically in the past 25 years. The communication process is changing from being unidirectional to multidirectional as consumers are becoming active participants by creating, seeking, and sharing information using a variety of channels and devices. The purpose of this article is to describe how this shift in the communication process- where gatekeepers control the creation and content of information and consumers are less active recipients to one that reflects a multidirectional and more dynamic process with participative consumers-will affect the social marketing process. This shift in communication does not represent an option for social marketers so much as a necessity. As professionals respond to this evolving communication model, the practice of social marketing can remain vibrant as a relevant consumer-oriented approach to behavior change.

  10. MODELLING THE INFLUENCE OF ONLINE MARKETING COMMUNICATION ON BEHAVIOURAL INTENTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra PERJU-MITRAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study addresses the manners in which potential consumers react to and examine online marketing communication efforts, and how their perceptions influence various decisions. By drawing from theories of consumer behaviour, several variables are taken into consideration, a model designed to integrate existing theories and a three-way study of online user behaviour in response to online marketing messages is defined and tested. The results of the study demonstrate that there are direct and positive links between the manner in which users perceive online marketing communication efforts, and direct and positive links between users’ attitudes towards online communication and their intention to either further inform themselves, forward the information obtained, or even become loyal to the company.

  11. Multi-period natural gas market modeling Applications, stochastic extensions and solution approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egging, Rudolf Gerardus

    This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. 1 The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in

  12. Multi-Period Natural Gas Market Modeling. Applications, Stochastic Extensions and Solution Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egging, R.G.

    2010-11-01

    This dissertation develops deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed complementarity problems (MCP) for the global natural gas market, as well as solution approaches for large-scale stochastic MCP. The deterministic model is unique in the combination of the level of detail of the actors in the natural gas markets and the transport options, the detailed regional and global coverage, the multi-period approach with endogenous capacity expansions for transportation and storage infrastructure, the seasonal variation in demand and the representation of market power according to Nash-Cournot theory. The model is applied to several scenarios for the natural gas market that cover the formation of a cartel by the members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, a low availability of unconventional gas in the United States, and cost reductions in long-distance gas transportation. The results provide insights in how different regions are affected by various developments, in terms of production, consumption, traded volumes, prices and profits of market participants. The stochastic MCP is developed and applied to a global natural gas market problem with four scenarios for a time horizon until 2050 with nineteen regions and containing 78,768 variables. The scenarios vary in the possibility of a gas market cartel formation and varying depletion rates of gas reserves in the major gas importing regions. Outcomes for hedging decisions of market participants show some significant shifts in the timing and location of infrastructure investments, thereby affecting local market situations. A first application of Benders decomposition (BD) is presented to solve a large-scale stochastic MCP for the global gas market with many hundreds of first-stage capacity expansion variables and market players exerting various levels of market power. The largest problem solved successfully using BD contained 47,373 variables of which 763 first-stage variables, however using BD did not result in

  13. Green Power Marketing in Retail Competition: An Early Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, R. (LBL); Fang, J.; Porter, K.; Houston, A. (NREL)

    1999-02-26

    Green power marketing-the business of selling electricity products or services based in part on their environmental values-is still in an early stage of development. This Topical Issues Brief presents a summary of early results with green power marketing under retail competition, covering both fully competitive markets and relevant direct access pilot programs. The brief provides an overview of green products that are or were offered, and discusses consumers' interest in these products. Critical issues that will impact the availability and success of green power products under retail competition are highlighted.

  14. Assessment of 48 Stock markets using adaptive multifractal approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Paulo; Dionísio, Andreia; Movahed, S. M. S.

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, Stock market comovements are examined using cointegration, Granger causality tests and nonlinear approaches in context of mutual information and correlations. Since underlying data sets are affected by non-stationarities and trends, we also apply Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (AMF-DFA) and Adaptive Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (AMF-DXA). We find only 170 pair of Stock markets cointegrated, and according to the Granger causality and mutual information, we realize that the strongest relations lies between emerging markets, and between emerging and frontier markets. According to scaling exponent given by AMF-DFA, h(q = 2) > 1, we find that all underlying data sets belong to non-stationary process. According to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), only 8 markets are classified in uncorrelated processes at 2 σ confidence interval. 6 Stock markets belong to anti-correlated class and dominant part of markets has memory in corresponding daily index prices during January 1995 to February 2014. New-Zealand with H = 0 . 457 ± 0 . 004 and Jordan with H = 0 . 602 ± 0 . 006 are far from EMH. The nature of cross-correlation exponents based on AMF-DXA is almost multifractal for all pair of Stock markets. The empirical relation, Hxy ≤ [Hxx +Hyy ] / 2, is confirmed. Mentioned relation for q > 0 is also satisfied while for q behavior of markets for small fluctuations is affected by contribution of major pair. For larger fluctuations, the cross-correlation contains information from both local (internal) and global (external) conditions. Width of singularity spectrum for auto-correlation and cross-correlation are Δαxx ∈ [ 0 . 304 , 0 . 905 ] and Δαxy ∈ [ 0 . 246 , 1 . 178 ] , respectively. The wide range of singularity spectrum for cross-correlation confirms that the bilateral relation between Stock markets is more complex. The value of σDCCA indicates that all pairs of stock market studied in this time interval

  15. Green Power Marketing in Retail Competition: An Early Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Porter; Ryan Wiser

    1999-01-01

    Green power marketing-the business of selling electricity products or services based in part on their environmental values-is still in an early stage of development. This Topical Issues Brief presents a summary of early results with green power marketing under retail competition, covering both fully competitive markets and relevant direct access pilot programs. The brief provides an overview of green products that are or were offered, and discusses consumers' interest in these products. Critical issues that will impact the availability and success of green power products under retail competition are highlighted

  16. Power market model with energy- and power dimension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnsen, T.A.; Larsen, B.M.

    1995-01-01

    This report discusses a mathematical model of the Norwegian power market. The year is divided into three seasons. Each season is subdivided into a high-load period and a low-load period according to the demand. High-load occurs in daytime on workdays while low-load occurs at night and on holidays. The model is intended to be a tool for studying variations in prices, production, demand and trade throughout the year in a market of free competition. The model establishes equilibrium prices of electricity in Norway in high-load and low-load periods. Equilibrium prices with added transport tariffs and charges give customer an indication of the cost of using electricity. And the equilibrium prices indicate to the power producers the value of further energy or power capacity. Examples of calculations using the model show that extended export and import between Norway and other countries affect power prices and production in Norway. In the examples, power intensive industry and wood processing are subjected to market prices on energy. World market prices which give unilateral power export in the high-load periods cause the Norwegian power prices to rise strongly. If to the export from Norway in periods of high-load there corresponds import in periods of low-load, then the pressure on the prices in the power market is significantly reduced. A more extensive power exchange implies that foreign power producers may use the Norwegian power system to avoid large variations in their thermal power production. 23 refs., 21 figs., 1 tab

  17. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  18. EIA model documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-30

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of products, the production of natural gas liquids and domestic methanol, projects petroleum provides and sources of supplies for meeting demand. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption.

  19. Assessment of emission trading impacts on competitive electricity market price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, S.N.; Saxena, D.; Østergaard, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    analyzes the impact of electricity prices in the competitive electricity markets having a uniform market clearing price mechanism. Findings - It is found that the electricity prices depend on the system loading, generation mix, etc. at a particular hour. Various emission trading instruments are discussed...... side emission trading impact on electricity prices in the competitive power market. Design/methodology/approach - Various schemes are suggested and are being implemented to achieve this objective. It is expected that electricity price will increase due to imposition of emission taxes. This paper...... with a special emphasis on the European market. Research limitations/implications - Block bidding of the suppliers is considered whereas the demand is assumed to be inelastic. Originality/value - The emission trading impacts are analyzed on a simple example....

  20. The Northeast heating fuel market: Assessment and options; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    None

    2000-01-01

    In response to a Presidential request, this study examines how the distillate fuel oil market (and related energy markets) in the Northeast behaved in the winter of 1999-2000, explains the role played by residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity generation sector consumers in distillate fuel oil markets and describes how that role is influenced by the structure of tie energy markets in the Northeast. In addition, this report explores the potential for nonresidential users to move away from distillate fuel oil and how this might impact future prices, and discusses conversion of distillate fuel oil users to other fuels over the next 5 years. Because the President's and Secretary's request focused on converting factories and other large-volume users of mostly high-sulfur distillate fuel oil to other fuels, transportation sector use of low-sulfur distillate fuel oil is not examined here

  1. The Northeast heating fuel market: Assessment and options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2000-07-01

    In response to a Presidential request, this study examines how the distillate fuel oil market (and related energy markets) in the Northeast behaved in the winter of 1999-2000, explains the role played by residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity generation sector consumers in distillate fuel oil markets and describes how that role is influenced by the structure of tie energy markets in the Northeast. In addition, this report explores the potential for nonresidential users to move away from distillate fuel oil and how this might impact future prices, and discusses conversion of distillate fuel oil users to other fuels over the next 5 years. Because the President's and Secretary's request focused on converting factories and other large-volume users of mostly high-sulfur distillate fuel oil to other fuels, transportation sector use of low-sulfur distillate fuel oil is not examined here.

  2. Modeling the time-changing dependence in stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frezza, Massimiliano

    2012-01-01

    The time-changing dependence in stock markets is investigated by assuming the multifractional process with random exponent (MPRE) as model for actual log price dynamics. By modeling its functional parameter S(t, ω) via the square root process (S.R.) a twofold aim is obtained. From one hand both the main financial and statistical properties shown by the estimated S(t) are captured by surrogates, on the other hand this capability reveals able to model the time-changing dependence shown by stocks or indexes. In particular, a new dynamical approach to interpreter market mechanisms is given. Empirical evidences are offered by analysing the behaviour of the daily closing prices of a very known index, the Industrial Average Dow Jones (DJIA), beginning on March,1990 and ending on February, 2005.

  3. Climate Change and Market Collapse: A Model Applied to Darfur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola Olsson

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A recurring argument in the global debate is that climate deterioration is likely to make social conflicts over diminishing natural resources more common in the future. The exact mechanism behind such a development has so far not been successfully characterized in the literature. In this paper, we present a general model of a community populated by farmers and herders who can either divide up land in a market economy or in autarky. The key insight from our model is that decreasing resources can make trade between the two groups collapse, which in turn makes each group’s welfare independent of that of the other. Predictions from the model are then applied to the conflict in Darfur. Our analysis suggests that three decades of drought in the area can at least partially explain the observed disintegration of markets and the subsequent rise of social tensions.

  4. A CcP model of the stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimshon Bichler

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Most explanations of stock market booms and busts are based on contrasting the underlying ‘fundamental’ logic of the economy with the exogenous, non-economic factors that presumably distort it. Our paper offers a radically different model, examining the stock market not from the mechanical viewpoint of a distorted economy, but from the dialectical perspective of capitalized power. The model demonstrates that (1 the valuation of equities represents capitalized power; (2 capitalized power is dialectically intertwined with systemic fear; and (3 systemic fear and capitalized power are mediated through strategic sabotage. This triangular model, we posit, can offer a basis for examining the asymptotes, or limits, of capitalized power and the ways in which these asymptotes relate to the historical and ongoing transformation of the capitalist mode of power.

  5. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  6. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  7. Economic Assessment of Hydrogen Technologies Participating in California Electricity Markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eichman, Joshua [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Townsend, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, Marc [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-02-19

    As the electric sector evolves and increasing amounts of variable renewable generation are installed on the system, there are greater needs for system flexibility and sufficient capacity, and greater concern for overgeneration from renewable sources not well matched in time with electric loads. Hydrogen systems have the potential to support the grid in each of these areas. However, limited information is available about the economic competitiveness of hydrogen system configurations. This paper quantifies the value for hydrogen energy storage and demand response systems to participate in select California wholesale electricity markets using 2012 data. For hydrogen systems and conventional storage systems (e.g., pumped hydro, batteries), the yearly revenues from energy, ancillary service, and capacity markets are compared to the yearly cost to establish economic competitiveness. Hydrogen systems can present a positive value proposition for current markets. Three main findings include: (1) For hydrogen systems participating in California electricity markets, producing and selling hydrogen was found to be much more valuable than producing and storing hydrogen to later produce electricity; therefore systems should focus on producing and selling hydrogen and opportunistically providing ancillary services and arbitrage. (2) Tighter integration with electricity markets generates greater revenues (i.e., systems that participate in multiple markets receive the highest revenue). (3) More storage capacity, in excess of what is required to provide diurnal shifting, does not increase competitiveness in current California wholesale energy markets. As more variable renewable generation is installed, the importance of long duration storage may become apparent in the energy price or through additional markets, but currently, there is not a sufficiently large price differential between days to generate enough revenue to offset the cost of additional storage. Future work will involve

  8. Canadian electricity trends and issues : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-05-01

    This report examines the supply and demand of electricity in Canada and provides a province by province analysis of trade, regulatory developments and electricity prices. The Canadian electricity market is regionally diverse, as evidenced by the variety of fuels used for power generation and the differences in market structure, regulation and pricing. Hydro accounts for 61 per cent of Canadian electricity generation. Other sources include coal (18 per cent), nuclear (13 per cent), natural gas (4 per cent) and oil and renewables (4 per cent). Most new power generation projects in Canada are expected to be gas-fired leading to a convergence between natural gas and electricity markets. Most provincial electricity markets are being adequately supplied, even with rising power demands. Alberta restructured its electricity market over a five year period culminating in full retail access on 1 January 2001. While power supply has been relatively tight in Alberta, new generation capacity is expected to become available over the next few years. Ontario plans to implement full retail access in May 2002. Most other provinces are implementing wholesale access. Canadian residential electricity prices are among the lowest of the industrialized countries, and tend to be lowest in hydro-rich provinces. Most hydro-rich provinces have surplus energy available for domestic and international trade. Some provinces are undergoing basic changes with respect to the restructuring of their markets through the unbundling of power generation, transmission and distribution services. 53 figs

  9. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  10. A Multilateral Negotiation Model for Cloud Service Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Dongjin; Sim, Kwang Mong

    Trading cloud services between consumers and providers is a complicated issue of cloud computing. Since a consumer can negotiate with multiple providers to acquire the same service and each provider can receive many requests from multiple consumers, to facilitate the trading of cloud services among multiple consumers and providers, a multilateral negotiation model for cloud market is necessary. The contribution of this work is the proposal of a business model supporting a multilateral price negotiation for trading cloud services. The design of proposed systems for cloud service market includes considering a many-to-many negotiation protocol, and price determining factor from service level feature. Two negotiation strategies are implemented: 1) MDA (Market Driven Agent); and 2) adaptive concession making responding to changes of bargaining position are proposed for cloud service market. Empirical results shows that MDA achieved better performance in some cases that the adaptive concession making strategy, it is noted that unlike the MDA, the adaptive concession making strategy does not assume that an agent has information of the number of competitors (e.g., a consumer agent adopting the adaptive concession making strategy need not know the number of consumer agents competing for the same service).

  11. Predictive market segmentation model: An application of logistic regression model and CHAID procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soldić-Aleksić Jasna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Market segmentation presents one of the key concepts of the modern marketing. The main goal of market segmentation is focused on creating groups (segments of customers that have similar characteristics, needs, wishes and/or similar behavior regarding the purchase of concrete product/service. Companies can create specific marketing plan for each of these segments and therefore gain short or long term competitive advantage on the market. Depending on the concrete marketing goal, different segmentation schemes and techniques may be applied. This paper presents a predictive market segmentation model based on the application of logistic regression model and CHAID analysis. The logistic regression model was used for the purpose of variables selection (from the initial pool of eleven variables which are statistically significant for explaining the dependent variable. Selected variables were afterwards included in the CHAID procedure that generated the predictive market segmentation model. The model results are presented on the concrete empirical example in the following form: summary model results, CHAID tree, Gain chart, Index chart, risk and classification tables.

  12. Tracking Young Adults' Attitudes Toward Tobacco Marketing Using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Megan E; Lu, Bo; Browning, Christopher R; Ferketich, Amy K

    2017-07-29

    Decades of research demonstrate the pernicious effects of targeted cigarette marketing on young people. Now, with tobacco marketing shifting toward greater incorporation of alternative products, it is critical to identify current attitudes toward the new landscape of tobacco advertisements. The purpose of this study was to understand the present landscape of tobacco marketing to which young adults are exposed, and to assess how they respond to it. During 2015-2016, we used ecological momentary assessment (EMA), in which 44 young adults (aged 18-28) carried smartphones equipped with a survey app. Seventy-seven percent were ever-users of tobacco and 29.5% were intermittent users of tobacco (someday users of cigarettes and/or those who used another tobacco product >5 times within the past year). For ten days, participants were prompted at three random times/day to complete a brief survey about their exposures and responses to tobacco-related advertising. Analyses used t-test and multilevel modeling. Intermittent users reported greater exposure than non-intermittent users to tobacco advertising. Further, both intermittent and ever-users reported more positive attitudes toward the tobacco advertising. Of the tobacco advertisements reported, 22% were for products unregulated by the FDA at the time of data collection. Conclusions/Importance: These findings indicate that young adults, and especially young adults who use tobacco, are exposed to a fair amount of tobacco advertising on a weekly basis. As the tobacco users in our sample were largely experimental and occasional users, these marketing exposures could put young adults at risk for progression toward regular use.

  13. The opening of electricity and gas retail markets - Assessment 2009, Assessment 2010, Assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Three articles present and comment data related to the evolution of the electricity and gas retail markets after their opening in July 2007 and during respectively 2009, 2010 and 2011. This evolution is notably addressed in terms of number of residential and non-residential clients and sites, in terms of annual consumption for residential and non-residential sites, and in terms of site location in France

  14. High-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) market assessment, synthetic fuels analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-08-01

    This study is an update of assessments made in TRW's October 1979 assessment of overall high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) markets in the future synfuels industry (1985 to 2020). Three additional synfuels processes were assessed. Revised synfuel production forecasts were used. General environmental impacts were assessed. Additional market barriers, such as labor and materials, were researched. Market share estimates were used to consider the percent of markets applicable to the reference HTGR size plant. Eleven HTGR plants under nominal conditions and two under pessimistic assumptions are estimated for selection by 2020. No new HTGR markets were identified in the three additional synfuels processes studied. This reduction in TRW's earlier estimate is a result of later availability of HTGR's (commercial operation in 2008) and delayed build up in the total synfuels estimated markets. Also, a latest date for HTGR capture of a synfuels market could not be established because total markets continue to grow through 2020. If the nominal HTGR synfuels market is realized, just under one million tons of sulfur dioxide effluents and just over one million tons of nitrous oxide effluents will be avoided by 2020. Major barriers to a large synfuels industry discussed in this study include labor, materials, financing, siting, and licensing. Use of the HTGR intensifies these barriers

  15. The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, G.; Chen, Y.; Huang, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    Researchers have borrowed many theories from statistical physics, like ensemble, Ising model, etc., to study complex adaptive systems through agent-based modeling. However, one fundamental difference between entities (such as spins) in physics and micro-units in complex adaptive systems is that the latter are usually with high intelligence, such as investors in financial markets. Although highly intelligent virtual agents are essential for agent-based modeling to play a full role in the study of complex adaptive systems, how to create such agents is still an open question. Hence, we propose three principles for designing high artificial intelligence in financial markets and then build a specific class of agents called iAgents based on these three principles. Finally, we evaluate the intelligence of iAgents through virtual index trading in two different stock markets. For comparison, we also include three other types of agents in this contest, namely, random traders, agents from the wealth game (modified on the famous minority game), and agents from an upgraded wealth game. As a result, iAgents perform the best, which gives a well support for the three principles. This work offers a general framework for the further development of agent-based modeling for various kinds of complex adaptive systems.

  16. Application of Markowitz Model on Romanian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zavera Ioana Coralia

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Performance evaluation of financial instruments has become a concern for more and more economists, while security trading activities have developed over time. “Modern portfolio theory” comprises statistical and mathematical models which describe various ways in order to evaluate and especially analyse profitability and risk of these portfolios. This article offers an application of this type of model on Romanian stock market, the Markowitz model, by focusing on portfolios comprising three securities, and determining the efficient frontier and the minimum variance portfolio.

  17. Assessment of the candidate markets for liquid boiler fuels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1979-12-01

    Liquid fuels can be produced from coal in a number of indirect and direct liquefaction processes. While indirect coal liquefaction has been proved commercially outside the United States, most attention in this country has focused on the direct liquefaction processes, which include the processes under examination in this report; namely, the Exxon Donor Solvent (EDS), the H-Coal, and the Solvent Refined Coal (SRC) II processes. The objectives of the study were to: compare the boiler fuels of direct coal liquefaction with residual fuel oil (No. 6 fuel oil) including physical characteristics and environmental hazards, such as carcinogenic characteristics and toxic hazard characteristics; determine whether a boiler fuel market would exist for the coal liquefaction products given their physical characteristics and potential environmental hazards; determine the advantages of utilizing methanol as a boiler fuel on a continuous basis in commercial boilers utilizing existing technology; identify the potential regional candidate markets for direct coal liquefaction products as liquid boiler fuels; determine the distributing and handling costs associated with marketing coal liquefaction products as liquid boiler fuels; determine the current regulatory issues associated with the marketing of coal liquefaction products as boiler fuels; and determine and evaluate other institutional issues associated with the marketing of direct coal liquefaction products as boiler fuels.

  18. Natural gas prices in the Maritimes : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-03-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply and price of natural gas in the Maritimes. This report contains the results and analysis of a survey of the wholesale natural gas prices paid by Canadian buyers in the Maritimes from November 2002 to October 2003. The objective of the report is to improve the understanding of the market factors that influence wholesale natural gas prices in the Maritimes. A comparative evaluation of domestic and export prices shows that Canadian buyers have had access to gas at prices similar to the export market at St. Stephen, New Brunswick. Since the number of participants in the domestic market is low, only four large buyers have a major impact on average prices in the region. The challenge for small buyers will be to buy gas from others who can divert some of their own sales of use. However, these sellers may not want to over-commit to new firm sales in case they have to re-purchase the gas during shortages that may occur due to fluctuations in production or shipping. It was noted that a new gas supply into the region would support many buyers and sellers, and could lead to a more transparent Maritime natural gas market. The National Energy Board is satisfied that the Maritime natural gas market is currently performing as well as can be expected, given its young stage of development. 1 tab., 8 figs., 1 appendix

  19. Labor market modeling recognizing latent job attributes and opportunity constraints : an empirical analysis of labor market behavior of Eritrean women

    OpenAIRE

    Arneberg, Marie W.; Dagsvik, John K.; Jia, Zhiyang

    2002-01-01

    Abstract: This paper analyzes labor market behavior of urban Eritrean women with particular reference to the impact of education, earnings and labor market opportunities. Unlike traditional models of labor supply, which assume that work can be supplied freely in the labor market, we develop a framework that explicitly takes into account the notion of job opportunities and observable sets of feasible jobs. The framework is formulated within a random utility setting in which unob...

  20. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  1. Generalized Bogoliubov Polariton Model: An Application to Stock Exchange Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anh, Chu Thuy; Anh, Truong Thi Ngoc; Lan, Nguyen Tri; Viet, Nguyen Ai

    2016-01-01

    A generalized Bogoliubov method for investigation non-simple and complex systems was developed. We take two branch polariton Hamiltonian model in second quantization representation and replace the energies of quasi-particles by two distribution functions of research objects. Application to stock exchange market was taken as an example, where the changing the form of return distribution functions from Boltzmann-like to Gaussian-like was studied. (paper)

  2. Hybrid Storage Market Assessment: A JISEA White Paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Sean J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rose, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jayaswal, Harshit [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Engel-Cox, Jill [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffery [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McLaren, Joyce A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Anderson, Katherine H [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, Douglas J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Glassmire, John [HOMER Energy, Boulder, CO (United States); Klawiter, Steffi [HOMER Energy, Boulder, CO (United States); Rajasekaran, Dhiwaakar [HOMER Energy, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-10-09

    This white paper evaluates which markets are best suited for battery storage and storage hybrids and reviews regulations and incentives that support or impede the implementation of standalone storage and battery hybrids. The costs of battery storage technologies have dropped in recent years, resulting in a seven-fold increase in installed capacity over the last decade (1). These technologies offer an attractive rate of return in some locations; however, cost and regulatory barriers still limit the market for storage. Hybridizing a battery (combining the battery with a generator) can in some instances reduce total system costs and increase value compared to separate installations. The fast ramping and dispatchability of a battery can complement the generator to provide services that neither battery nor generator could provide alone. Battery hybrids also benefit from some policy incentives and may be better able to meet market and regulatory requirements.

  3. Identifying and assessing the factors affecting skill gap in digital marketing in communication industry companies

    OpenAIRE

    Ghotbifar, Fereshteh; Marjani, Mohammad Reza; Ramazani, Abbas

    2017-01-01

    As far as new communication channels are concerned, there have been extensive developments in communications and marketing in digital era. Today, therefore, companies try to take advantage of digital marketing channels to provide suitable services to customers to improve their satisfaction level. However, this study aimed to identify and assess factors affecting skill gap in digital marketing. This was descriptive correlation study. The population consisted of experts in communications indust...

  4. A Game-Theoretic Model of Marketing Skin Whiteners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Roger Lee

    2015-01-01

    Empirical studies consistently find that people in less developed countries tend to regard light or "white" skin, particularly among women, as more desirable or superior. This is a study about the marketing of skin whiteners in these countries, where over 80 percent of users are typically women. It proceeds from the following premises: a) Purely market or policy-oriented approaches toward the risks and harms of skin whitening are cost-inefficient; b) Psychosocial and informational factors breed uninformed and risky consumer choices that favor toxic skin whiteners; and c) Proliferation of toxic whiteners in a competitive buyer's market raises critical supplier accountability issues. Is intentional tort a rational outcome of uncooperative game equilibria? Can voluntary cooperation nonetheless evolve between buyers and sellers of skin whiteners? These twin questions are key to addressing the central paradox in this study: A robust and expanding buyer's market, where cheap whitening products abound at a high risk to personal and societal health and safety. Game-theoretic modeling of two-player and n-player strategic interactions is proposed in this study for both its explanatory and predictive value. Therein also lie its practical contributions to the economic literature on skin whitening.

  5. Self-employment in an equilibrium model of the labor market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jake Bradley

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Self-employed workers account for between 8 and 30 % of participants in the labor markets of OECD countries (Blanchower, Self-employment: more may not be better, 2004. This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model of the labor market that accounts for this sizable proportion. The model incorporates self-employed workers, some of whom hire paid employees in the market. Employment rates and earnings distributions are determined endogenously and are estimated to match their empirical counterparts. The model is estimated using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS. The model is able to estimate nonpecuniary amenities associated with employment in different labor market states, accounting for both different employment dynamics within state and the misreporting of earnings by self-employed workers. Structural parameter estimates are then used to assess the impact of an increase in the generosity of unemployment benefits on the aggregate employment rate. Findings suggest that modeling the self-employed, some of whom hire paid employees implies that small increases in unemployment benefits leads to an expansion in aggregate employment. JEL Classification J21, J24, J28, J64

  6. Assessing the effectiveness of consumer narratives for destination marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tussyadiah, Iis; Park, S.; Fesenmaier, D.R.

    2011-01-01

    Using tourists' stories to promote destinations is believed to be an innovative approach in destination marketing. This study conceptualizes and investigates the effectiveness of such an approach. This study supports the underlying premise of introducing narrative in marketing, that is......, the narrative reasoning that human beings possess with which they can retrieve information better through a story. Furthermore, it is argued that the increased knowledge of a destination will have a stronger effect on the intention to visit a destination if the audiences can identify themselves with the story...

  7. Mexico's Geothermal Market Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Booth, Sarah [Booth Clean Energy LLC, Denver, CO (United States); Graves, Andrew [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-03-29

    This report is intended to help U.S. companies in the geothermal sector understand potential business opportunities created by recent changes in the Mexican energy market and regulatory environment. can also provide a variety of technology products and services for export into the Mexican market. This report will help U.S. companies identify the many public and private sector stakeholders in the United States and Mexico, which can help U.S. companies navigate the new regulatory and permitting environment, build new partnerships, and identify vehicles for financial assistance and risk mitigation.

  8. Modelling wedding marketing strategies: An fsQCA Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anestis Fotiadis

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study is to develop a model delineating customer perceptions on wedding marketing strategies in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Main objective of this paper is to analyse a category of special events: the wedding market sector in Kaohsiung, Taiwan by examining how they attract consumers regarding their marketing strategies using the method of fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA. Based on a survey to married, in relationship and singles local citizens of Taiwan the relationships between impressions, importance, push factors with decision making was explored. To test the hypotheses of the proposed model a primary research study was conducted employing a mall intercept technique via distribution of a self-administered questionnaire within a cross sectional on-site field research context. A fsQCA modelling approach technique was employed in order to measure, estimate and confirm the different casual paths constructs, as well as to test the significance of the paths between different segments of the wedding industry. Our findings reveal that the presence of importance, push factors and decision making determines the level of consumer perception performance. However, impressions do not show significant impact on consumer perceptions.

  9. The Models of Market Economy on the Modern Technological Platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolovska Zoia M.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at analyzing the status of software provision of simulation modeling of economic systems and disclosing the possibilities of application of the integrated software-technological platforms in the building of market models. Problems in the field of applied introduction of the method of simulation modeling have been defined; the status of the software-technological provision of the simulation modeling of economic systems has been analyzed. It has been suggested to use the integrated system of multi-approach simulation modeling AnyLogic as one of the most powerful modern software platforms. The variant of the model of competitive multi-product market adapted to the specifics of pharmaceutical industry enterprises has been considered. The work of the model can be illustrated by results of the situational simulation experiments on the example of the pharmaceutical company «Farmak». The possibilities of parametric adjustment of imitation experiments together with the spectrum of their application in practical activity of pharmaceutical enterprises have been demonstrated.

  10. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Yanhui Xi; Hui Peng; Yemei Qin

    2016-01-01

    The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation....

  11. Needs assessment as a marketing strategy: an experience for baccalaureate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colangelo, R; Goldrick, B

    1991-04-01

    A marketing needs assessment was undertaken as a community health project for baccalaureate nursing students. The objective of the project were: (1) to conduct a needs assessment utilizing the concepts of marketing in health planning, and (2) to identify health needs of a community based on active participation by members of the community. Through a collaborative effort with a community health agency, students were able to integrate the principles of marketing and participative decision-making into a learning experience. The results of the needs assessment provided the agency with valuable information for strategic planning.

  12. Transferring Road Maps for Learning and Assessment Procedures to Marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzberger, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Learning is a lifelong process. It is therefore worthwhile looking at instances where learning takes place outside educational institutions and see how educational principles can be applied there. In a market economy companies have to quest for profit to ensure their long-term survival. In the end, their educational goals have to serve themselves.…

  13. A Journal-Neutral Ratio for Marketing Faculty Scholarship Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbeck, Matt; Baruca, Arne

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a journal-neutral Publication to Citation Ratio (PCR) to complement qualitative methods to evaluate a marketing educator's scholarship for reappointment, promotion, tenure, and post-tenure review (RPTP) decisions. We empirically establish a minimum time period to evaluate scholarship data, then benchmark publication and…

  14. Real-time traveler information market assessment white paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-22

    This report takes a multi-modal look at the lay of the land of the real-time traveler information : market in the United States. This includes identification and characterization of the gaps in the : domestic industry with respect to data cover...

  15. A Computational Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Competitive Wireless Service Market

    KAUST Repository

    Douglas, C C; Hyoseop Lee,; Wonsuck Lee,

    2011-01-01

    Using an agent-based modeling method, we study market dynamism with regard to wireless cellular services that are in competition for a greater market share and profit. In the proposed model, service providers and consumers are described as agents

  16. Market chances for innovative natural gas applications. The determination of market potential by means of a phase model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoelen, Q.E.J.J.M.; Klootwijk, M.

    2000-01-01

    Innovative applications of natural gas can increase the sale of natural gas, support energy companies in the development of commercial activities, and contribute to energy efficiency measures. The Dutch natural gas trading company Gasunie supports those developments by investigating the market potential of innovative gas appliances. Use is made of the so-called Phase Model for Market Introduction, developed by Kea Consult

  17. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  18. Cheap versus expensive trades: Assessing the determinants of market impact costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Spierdijk, L.; van der Sluis, P.J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper assesses the determinants of market impact costs of institutional equity trades, using unique data from the world's second largest pension fund. We allow the impact of trade characteristics and market conditions on trading costs to depend on the level of trading costs itself and establish

  19. Optimal Goodwill Model with Consumer Recommendations and Market Segmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Bogusz, Dominika; Górajski, Mariusz

    2014-01-01

    We propose a new dynamic model of product goodwill where a product is sold in many market segments, and where the segments are indicated by the usage experience of consumers. The dynamics of product goodwill is described by a partial differential equation of the Lotka–Sharpe– McKendrick type. The main novelty of this model is that the product goodwill in a segment of new consumers depends not only on advertising effort, but also on consumer recommendations, for which we introduce a mathematic...

  20. An Aggregation Model for Energy Resources Management and Market Negotiations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omid Abrishambaf

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Currently the use of distributed energy resources, especially renewable generation, and demand response programs are widely discussed in scientific contexts, since they are a reality in nowadays electricity markets and distribution networks. In order to benefit from these concepts, an efficient energy management system is needed to prevent energy wasting and increase profits. In this paper, an optimization based aggregation model is presented for distributed energy resources and demand response program management. This aggregation model allows different types of customers to participate in electricity market through several tariffs based demand response programs. The optimization algorithm is a mixed-integer linear problem, which focuses on minimizing operational costs of the aggregator. Moreover, the aggregation process has been done via K-Means clustering algorithm, which obtains the aggregated costs and energy of resources for remuneration. By this way, the aggregator is aware of energy available and minimum selling price in order to participate in the market with profit. A realistic low voltage distribution network has been proposed as a case study in order to test and validate the proposed methodology. This distribution network consists of 25 distributed generation units, including photovoltaic, wind and biomass generation, and 20 consumers, including residential, commercial, and industrial buildings.

  1. Developing a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadegh Feizollahi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many evidences, which emphasis on the benefits of using new technologies of information and communication in international business and many believe that E-Commerce can help satisfy customer explicit and implicit requirements. Internet shopping is a concept developed after the introduction of electronic commerce. Information technology (IT and its applications, specifically in the realm of the internet and e-mail promoted the development of e-commerce in terms of advertising, motivating and information. However, with the development of new technologies, credit and financial exchange on the internet websites were constructed so to facilitate e-commerce. The proposed study sends a total of 200 questionnaires to the target group (teachers - students - professionals - managers of commercial web sites and it manages to collect 130 questionnaires for final evaluation. Cronbach's alpha test is used for measuring reliability and to evaluate the validity of measurement instruments (questionnaires, and to assure construct validity, confirmatory factor analysis is employed. In addition, in order to analyze the research questions based on the path analysis method and to determine markets selection models, a regular technique is implemented. In the present study, after examining different aspects of e-commerce, we provide a conceptual model for selecting and evaluating online marketing in Iran. These findings provide a consistent, targeted and holistic framework for the development of the Internet market in the country.

  2. A Market Dynamics Model for New Industrial Products and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Shmuel S. Oren; Michael H. Rothkopf

    1984-01-01

    New product planning models attempt to predict the market consequences of product line and product design decisions. One output of such models, especially those driven by subjective or market research data, is usually theoretical market shares based upon consumer preferences under idealized conditions. This paper describes a class of models that bridge the gap between such theoretical market shares and dynamic sales forecasts. This model accounts for differences in customer awareness of diffe...

  3. A Hybrid Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Web-based Marketing in Iran's Airline Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    saeed safari

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to propose a model for assessing the effectiveness of web-based marketing in Iran's airline industry. Thence in the first step after identifying the components of the model on the basis of literature review and opinions of experts in the field of marketing and sales related to airline industry, the final components of the model were extracted .In the second step, the Dematel method has been used to determine the existing relations between criteria. In the following, we utilized the ANP to determine the weight of each criterion with regard to the existing dependency and feedback between criteria as the third step. Finally in the last step of this research three reputable Iranian Companies in the airline industry were ranked by the use of VICTOR method. The results obtained by Dematel method indicated the internal and external communications between criteria of the assessing effectiveness of web-based marketing model. Meanwhile, the results of ANP suggested that “Reliability” was in the first place in terms of weight and importance among all criteria of the model. Result of VICOR showed that Mahan Company had the minimum distance to the ideal level.

  4. EMAIL MARKETING CAMPAIGNS: THE EASIEST PATH FROM ORGANIZATIONS TO CONSUMERS – AN EXPLORATORY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pantea Carmen

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The email is a valuable marketing tool for conveying short, simple messages that call for action on behalf of the recipient. Usually companies develop email marketing campaigns for attracting new customers, persuading the existing customers to buy again, encourage customer loyalty, announce or remind about special offers or events. For an email marketing campaign to be efficient, it is wanted a greater number of responses from those in the target. The paper assesses in an exploratory manner the frequency in using the email accounts, the level of exposure to email marketing campaigns as well as the type of information wanted to be received by the Romanian users.

  5. Mathematical modelling of electricity market with renewable energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marchenko, O.V.

    2007-01-01

    The paper addresses the electricity market with conventional energy sources on fossil fuel and non-conventional renewable energy sources (RESs) with stochastic operating conditions. A mathematical model of long-run (accounting for development of generation capacities) equilibrium in the market is constructed. The problem of determining optimal parameters providing the maximum social criterion of efficiency is also formulated. The calculations performed have shown that the adequate choice of price cap, environmental tax, subsidies to RESs and consumption tax make it possible to take into account external effects (environmental damage) and to create incentives for investors to construct conventional and renewable energy sources in an optimal (from the society view point) mix. (author)

  6. Stability analysis of an implicitly defined labor market model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Diana A.; Mendes, Vivaldo M.

    2008-06-01

    Until very recently, the pervasive existence of models exhibiting well-defined backward dynamics but ill-defined forward dynamics in economics and finance has apparently posed no serious obstacles to the analysis of their dynamics and stability, despite the problems that may arise from possible erroneous conclusions regarding theoretical considerations and policy prescriptions from such models. A large number of papers have dealt with this problem in the past by assuming the existence of symmetry between forward and backward dynamics, even in the case when the map cannot be invertible either forward or backwards. However, this procedure has been seriously questioned over the last few years in a series of papers dealing with implicit difference equations and inverse limit spaces. This paper explores the search and matching labor market model developed by Bhattacharya and Bunzel [J. Bhattacharya, H. Bunzel, Chaotic Planning Solution in the Textbook Model of Equilibrium Labor Market Search and Matching, Mimeo, Iowa State University, 2002; J. Bhattacharya, H. Bunzel, Economics Bulletin 5 (19) (2003) 1-10], with the following objectives in mind: (i) to show that chaotic dynamics may still be present in the model for acceptable parameter values, (ii) to clarify some open questions related with the admissible dynamics in the forward looking setting, by providing a rigorous proof of the existence of cyclic and chaotic dynamics through the application of tools from symbolic dynamics and inverse limit theory.

  7. Assessing Differentiating Aspects of Karaj Citizens' Orientation to Buy from Fruits and Vegetables Market and Its Parallel Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aghasafari

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the present study is to assess distinct aspects of citizens' intention to buy fruits and vegetables from municipal markets and its parallel markets within Karaj city. The required data was collected by completing 150 questionnaires from Karaj citizens in 2013. Using the multi-Group discriminant analysis, analysis ofthe study results within the three groups including buyers from municipal markets, local shops and fruit pickups show that possibility for non-cash payment, presenting printed purchase receipts, a higher quality of product, degree of fruit importance in the household basket, seller’s behaviour, more openning hours, use the benefit of the more familiar seller, and length of time allocated to buy fruit play the greatest role in making a distinction between two groups of buyers including buyers from local shops and buyers from municipal markets against buyers from fruit pickups. In addition, the results of this study indicate that monthly household expenditures, number of monthly fruit purchase, possibility for customers to select his desired items , a reasonable price comapared to the product’s quality, appropriate packing, education, how often a household buy fruits in a month a wide variety of products, trust to the offered prices, distance to the market play the greatest role in making a distinction between two groups of buyers from local shops and buyers from municipal markets, respectively. Ultimately, it is suggested to train sellers how to behave properly withcustomers. In addition, it should be paid more attention to appropriate packing and to make it possible for the citizens to select their desired items themselves.

  8. Modeling Financial Time Series Based on a Market Microstructure Model with Leverage Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhui Xi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The basic market microstructure model specifies that the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation are independent Gaussian white noise processes. However, the financial leverage effect has been found to be statistically significant in many financial time series. In this paper, a novel market microstructure model with leverage effects is proposed. The model specification assumed a negative correlation in the errors between the price/return innovation and the volatility innovation. With the new representations, a theoretical explanation of leverage effect is provided. Simulated data and daily stock market indices (Shanghai composite index, Shenzhen component index, and Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite index via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method are used to estimate the leverage market microstructure model. The results verify the effectiveness of the model and its estimation approach proposed in the paper and also indicate that the stock markets have strong leverage effects. Compared with the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV model in terms of DIC (Deviance Information Criterion, the leverage market microstructure model fits the data better.

  9. Assessing the Significance of Telecommunication Deregulation on the Growth of Japan's Mobile Phone Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yuqing Xing

    2001-01-01

    This paper analyzes the development of Japan's mobile phone market. Specifically, it focuses on the regulatory reforms of Japan's mobile communication sector and their impact on the growth of the market. The analysis based on a monopolistic competition model shows that the deregulation policies perform an essential role in fostering the rapid expansion of Japan's mobile phone market. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 1999, the paper tests the significance of the telecommunication deregulation...

  10. Advanced Sensors and Controls for Building Applications: Market Assessment and Potential R&D Pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brambley, M. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Haves, P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McDonald, S. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Torcellini, P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hansen, D. [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, D.C. (United States); Holmberg, D. R. [National Institute of Science and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD (United States); Roth, K. W. [TIAX, LLC, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2005-04-01

    This document provides a market assessment of existing building sensors and controls and presents a range of technology pathways (R&D options) for pursuing advanced sensors and building control strategies.

  11. Current assessment and future potential of the international nuclear market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassidy, P.R.

    1983-01-01

    This is a study of the current and future situation of the international nuclear market. This paper highlights the projections as seen not only by Bechtel Power Corporation, but also by the international nuclear community. It covers in particular the electric power growth projection; the percentage of probable nuclear power generation; operating services for existing nuclear power plants; and the nuclear fuel cycle. (NEA) [fr

  12. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  13. Assessing the options for a competitive electricity market in Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tishler, A.; Newman, J.; Spekterman, I.; Woo, C.K.

    2008-01-01

    In July 2006, the Israeli government affirmed its 2003 decision to reform the Israeli electricity industry, currently dominated by the Israel Electric Corporation (IEC), a government-owned vertically integrated electric utility. The reform calls for the deregulation and privatization of the generation and customer service segments of the industry, leaving transmission and distribution (T and D) regulated to provide open access to all end-users. This paper projects the performance of the post-reform market structure for the period 2007-2030 relative to that of the status quo. The post-reform generation market's prices are determined according to the Cournot conjecture. To mitigate excessive price volatility and surges, the generation market also includes a firm that is contracted to make peak electricity sales to customers at a pre-determined price, only when the competitive price exceeds the pre-determined level. Our results show (a) the post-reform retail prices for end-users will exceed those under the status quo; (b) the post-reform profits may not be sufficient to keep firms operating combined cycle generation units financially viable; and (c) the net benefit from deregulating the electricity sector in Israel will most likely be negative. (author)

  14. Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-18

    This report contains the following: Bibliography; Petroleum Market Model abstract; Data quality; Estimation methodologies (includes refinery investment recovery thresholds, gas plant models, chemical industry demand for methanol, estimation of refinery fixed costs, estimation of distribution costs, estimation of taxes gasoline specifications, estimation of gasoline market shares, estimation of low-sulfur diesel market shares, low-sulfur diesel specifications, estimation of regional conversion coefficients, estimation of SO{sub 2} allowance equations, unfinished oil imports methodology, product pipeline capacities and tariffs, cogeneration methodology, natural gas plant fuel consumption, and Alaskan crude oil exports); Matrix generator documentation; Historical data processing; and Biofuels supply submodule.

  15. A strategic gaming model for health information exchange markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Diego A; Feijoo, Felipe; Zayas-Castro, Jose L; Levin, Scott; Das, Tapas K

    2018-03-01

    Current market conditions create incentives for some providers to exercise control over patient data in ways that unreasonably limit its availability and use. Here we develop a game theoretic model for estimating the willingness of healthcare organizations to join a health information exchange (HIE) network and demonstrate its use in HIE policy design. We formulated the model as a bi-level integer program. A quasi-Newton method is proposed to obtain a strategy Nash equilibrium. We applied our modeling and solution technique to 1,093,177 encounters for exchanging information over a 7.5-year period in 9 hospitals located within a three-county region in Florida. Under a set of assumptions, we found that a proposed federal penalty of up to $2,000,000 has a higher impact on increasing HIE adoption than current federal monetary incentives. Medium-sized hospitals were more reticent to adopt HIE than large-sized hospitals. In the presence of collusion among multiple hospitals to not adopt HIE, neither federal incentives nor proposed penalties increase hospitals' willingness to adopt. Hospitals' apathy toward HIE adoption may threaten the value of inter-connectivity even with federal incentives in place. Competition among hospitals, coupled with volume-based payment systems, creates no incentives for smaller hospitals to exchange data with competitors. Medium-sized hospitals need targeted actions (e.g., outside technological assistance, group purchasing arrangements) to mitigate market incentives to not adopt HIE. Strategic game theoretic models help to clarify HIE adoption decisions under market conditions at play in an extremely complex technology environment.

  16. USING OF MULTI-CRITERIAL EVALUATION METHODS TO ASSESS POSITION OF THE OBJECT IN THE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Ižaríková

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the evaluation of the firm's position. Recognition of market position among competitors but also among customers is important for the development of the company. A comparison can be made by using multicriterial methods. The ranking of companies is based on different methods (method of simple order, weighted order sum method, point methods, standardized variable method. Compliance order will be assessed by the rank correlation coefficients. Acquired assessment of market state allows us to design a strategic.

  17. Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits...... of this model is the explicit ability to describe what the architecture is prepared for, and what it is not prepared for - concerning development of future derivative products. The model has been applied in a large scale global product development project. Among the most important benefits is contribution to...

  18. A multidimensional subdiffusion model: An arbitrage-free market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guo-Hua; Zhang Hong; Luo Mao-Kang

    2012-01-01

    To capture the subdiffusive characteristics of financial markets, the subordinated process, directed by the inverse α-stale subordinator S α (t) for 0 < α < 1, has been employed as the model of asset prices. In this article, we introduce a multidimensional subdiffusion model that has a bond and K correlated stocks. The stock price process is a multidimensional subdiffusion process directed by the inverse α-stable subordinator. This model describes the period of stagnation for each stock and the behavior of the dependency between multiple stocks. Moreover, we derive the multidimensional fractional backward Kolmogorov equation for the subordinated process using the Laplace transform technique. Finally, using a martingale approach, we prove that the multidimensional subdiffusion model is arbitrage-free, and also gives an arbitrage-free pricing rule for contingent claims associated with the martingale measure. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  19. Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

    2001-06-01

    The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

  20. Applying marketing channel theory to food marketing in developing countries: A vertical disintegration model for horticultural marketing channels in Kenya

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.; Tilburg, van A.

    2001-01-01

    This article shows that marketing channel theory, which has been extensively applied in developed countries, can also be of great value to the developing world. Notably, the channel approach makes it possible to explain the number of trade levels observed in food marketing systems. We propose here a

  1. The Challenge of Assessing Creative Problem Solving in Client-Based Marketing Development Projects: A SOLO Taxonomy Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskari, Minna-Maarit

    2013-01-01

    Creativity and marketing imagination are essential core competencies for marketers. Therefore, higher marketing education emphasizes creativity in several ways. However, assessing creativity and creative problem solving is challenging and tools for this purpose have not been developed in the context of marketing education. To address this gap, we…

  2. Assessing competition in hospital care markets: the importance of accounting for quality differentiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tay, Abigail

    2003-01-01

    Quality differentiation is especially important in the hospital industry, where the choices of Medicare patients are unaffected by prices. Unlike previous studies that use geographic market concentration to estimate hospital competitiveness, this article emphasizes the importance of quality differentiation in this spatially differentiated market. I estimate a random-coefficients discrete-choice model that predicts patient flow to different hospitals and find that demand responses to both distance and quality are substantial. The estimates suggest that patients do not substitute toward alternative hospitals in proportion to current market shares, implying that geographic market concentration is an inappropriate measure of hospital competitiveness.

  3. A Conceptual Model of Knowledge Sharing and Market Orientation in the Tourism Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Chien M. Yeh; Han N. Hu; Shu H. Tsai

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement: Marketing scholars have emphasized the importance of market orientation. While a number of studies discover the positive influence of market orientation on a variety of organizations phenomena, the understanding of factors that facilitate market orientation is limited. This study develops a conceptual model in which knowledge sharing is proposed to be the antecedent to three perspectives of market orientation-customer orientation, competitor orientation ...

  4. Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

  5. Assessing Volatilities of Monetary Policy and their Effects on the Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Shabri Abd Majid

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352

  6. Assessment of the world market for small and medium reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csik, B.J.

    2000-01-01

    In the past decades, the major focus for nuclear power has been the design and construction of nuclear plants of ever increasing size. This was appropriate for many industrialized countries, which could readily add generation capability to their electrical grids in large increments. However, recently there has been an increasing emphasis on the development of small and medium reactors especially to meet needs in developing countries where electrical grids cannot accept the additional capacity of a large nuclear plant. The paper presents an estimation of the world market for small and medium sized reactors giving the basic assumptions, criteria, scope, methods and important factors. (author)

  7. Concepts and models. The common market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moraing, M.; Scholz, U.

    1993-01-01

    The discussion and debate concerning opening-up the European energy market to competition are complicated and difficult to sort out. The Council of Ministers rejected the EC Commission's proposals last November, and now the Commission is expected to produce new initiatives. This fall, the European Parliament will deliberate on a counter-proposal of its energy committee. The authors of the article, use the situation in Germany as a basis for an overview of the most important models currently being discusses. (orig.) [de

  8. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  9. A fuzzy logic model to forecast stock market momentum in Indonesia's property and real estate sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penawar, H. K.; Rustam, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The Capital market has the important role in Indonesia's economy. The capital market does not only support the economy of Indonesia but also being an indicator Indonesia's economy improvement. Something that has been traded in the capital market is stock (stock market). Nowadays, the stock market is full of uncertainty. That uncertainty values make predicting stock market is all that we have to do before we make a decision in the stock market. One that can be predicted in the stock market is momentum. To forecast stock market momentum, it can use fuzzy logic model. In the process of modeling, it will be used 14 days historical data that consisting the value of open, high, low, and close, to predict the next 5 days momentum categories. There are three momentum categories namely Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish. To illustrate the fuzzy logic model, we will use stocks data from several companies that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in property and real estate sector.

  10. The German power market. Data collection for model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munksgaard, J.; Alsted Pedersen, K.; Ramskov, J.

    2000-09-01

    In the present project the market scenario for analysing market imperfections has been the Northern European power market, i.e. a market including Germany as well. Consequently, one of the tasks in the project has been to collect data for Germany in order to develop the empirical basis of the ELEPHANT model. In that perspective the aim of this report is to document the data collected for Gemany, to specify the data sources used and further to lay stress on the assumptions which have been made when data have not been available. By doing so, transparency in model results is improved. Further, a basis for discussing the quality of data as well as a framework for future revisions and updating of data have been established. The data collected for Germany have been given by the exogenous variables defined by the ELEPHANT model. In that way data collection is a priori given by the specification of the model. The model includes more than 30 exogenous variables specified at a very detailed level. These variables include among others data on energy demand, detailed power production data and data on energy taxes and CO{sub 2} emission targets. This points to the fact that many kinds of data sources have been used. However, due to lack of data sources not all relevant data have been collected. One area in which lack of data has been significant is demand reactions to changes in energy prices, i.e. the different kinds of demand elasticities used in the production and consumer utility functions in the model. Concerning elasticities for German demand reactions no data sources have been available at all. Another area of data problems is combined heat and power production (so-called CHP production), in which only very aggregated data have been available. Lack of data or poor quality of data (e.g., data not up to date or data not detailed enough) has led to the use of appropriate assumptions and short cuts in order to establish the entire data basis for the model. We describe the

  11. The German power market. Data collection for model analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munksgaard, J.; Alsted Pedersen, K.; Ramskov, J.

    2000-09-01

    In the present project the market scenario for analysing market imperfections has been the Northern European power market, i.e. a market including Germany as well. Consequently, one of the tasks in the project has been to collect data for Germany in order to develop the empirical basis of the ELEPHANT model. In that perspective the aim of this report is to document the data collected for Gemany, to specify the data sources used and further to lay stress on the assumptions which have been made when data have not been available. By doing so, transparency in model results is improved. Further, a basis for discussing the quality of data as well as a framework for future revisions and updating of data have been established. The data collected for Germany have been given by the exogenous variables defined by the ELEPHANT model. In that way data collection is a priori given by the specification of the model. The model includes more than 30 exogenous variables specified at a very detailed level. These variables include among others data on energy demand, detailed power production data and data on energy taxes and CO 2 emission targets. This points to the fact that many kinds of data sources have been used. However, due to lack of data sources not all relevant data have been collected. One area in which lack of data has been significant is demand reactions to changes in energy prices, i.e. the different kinds of demand elasticities used in the production and consumer utility functions in the model. Concerning elasticities for German demand reactions no data sources have been available at all. Another area of data problems is combined heat and power production (so-called CHP production), in which only very aggregated data have been available. Lack of data or poor quality of data (e.g., data not up to date or data not detailed enough) has led to the use of appropriate assumptions and short cuts in order to establish the entire data basis for the model. We describe the

  12. High-Octane Mid-Level Ethanol Blend Market Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Caley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCormick, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States); Leiby, Paul [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Martinez, Rocio Uria [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Oladosu, Gbadebo [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Brown, Maxwell L. [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The United States government has been promoting increased use of biofuels, including ethanol from non-food feedstocks, through policies contained in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The objective is to enhance energy security, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and provide economic benefits. However, the United States has reached the ethanol blend wall, where more ethanol is produced domestically than can be blended into standard gasoline. Nearly all ethanol is blended at 10 volume percent (vol%) in gasoline. At the same time, the introduction of more stringent standards for fuel economy and GHG tailpipe emissions is driving research to increase the efficiency of spark ignition (SI) engines. Advanced strategies for increasing SI engine efficiency are enabled by higher octane number (more highly knock-resistant) fuels. Ethanol has a research octane number (RON) of 109, compared to typical U.S. regular gasoline at 91-93. Accordingly, high RON ethanol blends containing 20 vol% to 40 vol% ethanol are being extensively studied as fuels that enable design of more efficient engines. These blends are referred to as high-octane fuel (HOF) in this report. HOF could enable dramatic growth in the U.S. ethanol industry, with consequent energy security and GHG emission benefits, while also supporting introduction of more efficient vehicles. HOF could provide the additional ethanol demand necessary for more widespread deployment of cellulosic ethanol. However, the potential of HOF can be realized only if it is adopted by the motor fuel marketplace. This study assesses the feasibility, economics, and logistics of this adoption by the four required participants--drivers, vehicle manufacturers, fuel retailers, and fuel producers. It first assesses the benefits that could motivate these participants to adopt HOF. Then it focuses on the drawbacks and barriers that these participants could face when adopting HOF and proposes strategies--including incentives and

  13. A large-scale linear complementarity model of the North American natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabriel, Steven A.; Jifang Zhuang; Kiet, Supat

    2005-01-01

    The North American natural gas market has seen significant changes recently due to deregulation and restructuring. For example, third party marketers can contract for transportation and purchase of gas to sell to end-users. While the intent was a more competitive market, the potential for market power exists. We analyze this market using a linear complementarity equilibrium model including producers, storage and peak gas operators, third party marketers and four end-use sectors. The marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players determining supply to meet end-use consumption, all other players are in perfect competition. Results based on National Petroleum Council scenarios are presented. (Author)

  14. Integrating market share models with network optimizing models for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, L.D.; Moses, S.W.

    1991-01-01

    Mathematical models of market share are constructed to describe the distribution of petroleum products from pipeline terminals, water terminals and refineries in the midcontinental United States. Network distribution models are developed to analyse the constraints and economics of alternative distribution systems. This paper describes how the two types of models were integrated for strategic planning in an oil pipeline company

  15. Measuring Exposure to Protobacco Marketing and Media: A Field Study Using Ecological Momentary Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scharf, Deborah M.; Setodji, Claude M.; Shadel, William G.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: The aims of this study were to validate ecological momentary assessment (EMA) as a method for measuring exposure to tobacco-related marketing and media and to use this method to provide detailed descriptive data on college students’ exposure to protobacco marketing and media. Methods: College students (n = 134; ages 18–24 years) recorded their exposures to protobacco marketing and media on handheld devices for 21 consecutive days. Participants also recalled exposures to various types of protobacco marketing and media at the end of the study period. Results: Retrospectively recalled and EMA-based estimates of protobacco marketing exposure captured different information. The correlation between retrospectively recalled and EMA-logged exposures to tobacco marketing and media was moderate (r = .37, p marketing through multiple channels in a relatively short period: Exposures (M = 8.24, SD = 7.85) occurred primarily in the afternoon (42%), on weekends (35%), and at point-of-purchase locations (68%) or in movies/TV (20%), and exposures to Marlboro, Newport, and Camel represented 56% of all exposures combined and 70% of branded exposures. Conclusions: Findings support the validity of EMA as a method for capturing detailed information about youth exposure to protobacco marketing and media that are not captured through other existing methods. Such data have the potential to highlight areas for policy change and prevention in order to reduce the impact of tobacco marketing on youth. PMID:22039076

  16. Measuring exposure to protobacco marketing and media: a field study using ecological momentary assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Steven C; Scharf, Deborah M; Setodji, Claude M; Shadel, William G

    2012-04-01

    The aims of this study were to validate ecological momentary assessment (EMA) as a method for measuring exposure to tobacco-related marketing and media and to use this method to provide detailed descriptive data on college students' exposure to protobacco marketing and media. College students (n = 134; ages 18-24 years) recorded their exposures to protobacco marketing and media on handheld devices for 21 consecutive days. Participants also recalled exposures to various types of protobacco marketing and media at the end of the study period. Retrospectively recalled and EMA-based estimates of protobacco marketing exposure captured different information. The correlation between retrospectively recalled and EMA-logged exposures to tobacco marketing and media was moderate (r = .37, p marketing through multiple channels in a relatively short period: Exposures (M = 8.24, SD = 7.85) occurred primarily in the afternoon (42%), on weekends (35%), and at point-of-purchase locations (68%) or in movies/TV (20%), and exposures to Marlboro, Newport, and Camel represented 56% of all exposures combined and 70% of branded exposures. Findings support the validity of EMA as a method for capturing detailed information about youth exposure to protobacco marketing and media that are not captured through other existing methods. Such data have the potential to highlight areas for policy change and prevention in order to reduce the impact of tobacco marketing on youth.

  17. Identifying and assessing the factors affecting skill gap in digital marketing in communication industry companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fereshteh Ghotbifar

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As far as new communication channels are concerned, there have been extensive developments in communications and marketing in digital era. Today, therefore, companies try to take advantage of digital marketing channels to provide suitable services to customers to improve their satisfaction level. However, this study aimed to identify and assess factors affecting skill gap in digital marketing. This was descriptive correlation study. The population consisted of experts in communications industry to identify most important skill gaps in digital marketing and factors affecting them; also, managers and specialists of these companies were investigated to determine the role of identified factors in reducing skills gaps. Using localized questionnaire and interviewing with ten experts who were selected by Delphi snowball method, the skill gaps in marketing and factors affecting them were identified. Also, a researcher made questionnaire with 32 questions was distributed among 226 employees to investigate the identified factors role in reducing skills gap in digital marketing. The results showed that from four identified factors, the components including operational strategic factors and environmental factors had direct and positive impact on creating skill gap in digital marketing of studied companies. The environmental factors such as social and cultural conditions, religion, technology, and economy had more proactive impact on skills gap in digital marketing. Also, the results showed that among skills gaps in digital marketing of studied companies, the skills (Principles of Communication and (Predicting Future had the highest and lowest gaps, respectively.

  18. Natural gas market assessment. Canadian natural gas market mechanisms: Recent experiences and developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-11-01

    The increase in natural gas demand and the associated expansions of most of the pipeline systems serving western Canada have reduced the excess deliverability or excess productive capacity that existed at the time of deregulation of the natural gas industry in 1985. Based on an industry survey, the responses of natural gas buyers and sellers to recent supply difficulties are described. Specific production, transportation, and contractual difficulties were encountered in winter 1992/93 as production was stretched to meet record levels of demand during periods of very cold temperatures and as short-term spot prices reached very high levels. Problems at this time included wellhead freezeups, pipeline outages, and inadequate contract terms and conditions. Methods used to maintain gas flows to end users are reviewed, including a discussion of force majeure, spot gas purchases, storage, supply curtailment, and special loan arrangements. In 1992/93, in most instances where the responsibility fell on the end-user to solve the supply problem, the difficulty was shifted to local distribution companies who have traditionally had more experience with such situations. No cases were identified where either a firm or interruptible end-user was forced to curtail gas consumption because of inadequate supply. New market mechanisms are emerging that will enable buyers and sellers of western Canadian gas to avoid many of the problems encountered in 1992/93. These include prearranged backstopping arrangements, short-term spot markets, access to other gas basins, standardized gas contracts, electronic trading, and price risk management tools. 11 figs

  19. EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA's legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level

  20. EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-28

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.