WorldWideScience

Sample records for assessing risk reduction

  1. Integrated Assessment of Risk Reduction for Coastal Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBean, G.

    2011-12-01

    Coastal cities are among the world's most vulnerable communities and as their populations grow and the sea level rise, their vulnerability is increasing. Recent examples include the Japanese earthquake, the Indian Ocean tsunami, the typhoons in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Taiwan and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. This paper will discuss the exposure, vulnerability and hazards affecting large coastal cities and the role of a changing climate in their modification. A key question is what lessons have been learned and where future research should lay its emphasis. Through START and the new Canadian-funded project for Bangkok, Manila, Lagos and Vancouver, Coastal Cities at Risk research is advancing and an integrated assessment approach is being proposed to analyse options for risk reduction and will be described in this paper.

  2. Lymphedema Risk Reduction Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... now! Position Paper: Lymphedema Risk Reduction Practices Category: Position Papers Tags: Risks Archives Treatment risk reduction garments surgery obesity infection blood pressure trauma morbid obesity body weight ...

  3. Assessment of Risk Reduction for Lymphedema Following Sentinel Lymph Noded Guided Surgery for Primary Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-10-01

    Lymphedema Following Sentinel Lymph Noded Guided Surgery for Primary Breast Cancer PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Andrea L. Cheville, M.D...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Assessment of Risk Reduction for Lymphedema Following Sentinel Lymph Noded Guided Surgery for Primary Breast Cancer 5b...14. ABSTRACT Lymphedema is a common complication of primary breast cancer therapy. It is a chronic, insidiously progressive, and potentially

  4. Rapid Exposure Assessment of Nationwide River Flood for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Y.; Park, J.; Arifuzzaman, B.; Iwami, Y.; Amirul, Md.; Kondoh, A.

    2016-06-01

    considerably increased. For flood disaster risk reduction, it is important to identify and characterize flood area, locations (particularly lowland along rivers), and durations. For this purpose, flood mapping and monitoring are an imperative process and the fundamental part of risk management as well as emergency response. Our ultimate goal is to detect flood inundation areas over a nationwide scale despite limitations of optical and multispectral images, and to estimate flood risk in terms of affected people. We propose a methodological possibility to be used as a standard approach for nationwide rapid flood exposure assessment with the use of the multi-temporal Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), a big contributor to progress in near-real-time flood mapping. The preliminary results in Bangladesh show that a propensity of flood risk change strongly depends on the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure such as distributed population.

  5. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, O.P.; Alfonso, H.; Pirkis, J; Kerse, N.; Sim, M.; Flicker, L.; Snowdon, J.; Draper, B.; Byrne, G.; Goldney, R.; Lautenschlager, N.T.; Stocks, N.; Scazufca, M.; Huisman, M.; Araya, R.; Pfaff, J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors

  6. A framework for assessing risk reduction due to DNAPL mass removal from low permeability soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freeze, R.A. [R. Allan Freeze Engineering, Inc., White Rock, British Columbia (Canada); McWhorter, D.B. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    1996-08-01

    Many emerging remediation technologies are designed to remove contaminant mass from source zones at DNAPL sites in response to regulatory requirements. There is often concern in the regulated community as to whether mass removal actually reduces risk, or whether the small risk reductions achieved warrant the large costs incurred. This paper sets out a framework for quantifying the degree to which risk is reduced as mass is removed from shallow, saturated, low-permeability, dual-porosity, DNAPL source zones. Risk is defined in terms of meeting an alternate concentration level (ACL) at a compliance well in an aquifer underlying the source zone. The ACL is back-calculated from a carcinogenic health-risk characterization at a downstream water-supply well. Source-zone mass-removal efficiencies are heavily dependent on the distribution of mass between media (fractures, matrix) and phases (dissolved, sorbed, free product). Due to the uncertainties in currently-available technology performance data, the scope of the paper is limited to developing a framework for generic technologies rather than making risk-reduction calculations for specific technologies. Despite the qualitative nature of the exercise, results imply that very high mass-removal efficiencies are required to achieve significant long-term risk reduction with technology, applications of finite duration. 17 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  7. Use of the event tree to assess the risk reduction obtained from rockfall protection devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Peila

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents and discusses a procedure for the evaluation of the collective risk that can affect a road subjected to rockfalls, with and without protection measures, by means of the event tree analysis. This tool is useful to show designers whether the rockfall protection structures are located in the correct positions, whether they are the correct technological choice and what level of reduction of risk can be obtained. Different design options can therefore be compared on the same bases.

  8. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  9. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    ). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... predictive of violent recidivism compared to static items. In sum, the findings support the use of structured professional judgment models of risk assessment and in particular the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme. Findings regarding the importance of the (clinical) structured final risk judgment......International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...

  10. Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

  11. Risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1986-03-01

    The article deals with the calculation of risks, as applied to living near to a) a nuclear reactor or b) an industrial complex. The application of risk assessment techniques to the pressurised water reactor (PWR) is discussed with respect to: containment, frequencies of degraded core accidents, release of radioisotopes, consequences and risk to society, and uncertainties. The risk assessment for an industrial complex concerns the work of the Safety and Reliability Directorate for the chemical complex on Canvey Island. (U.K.).

  12. Current Chemical Risk Reduction Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  13. Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy integration in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Väätäinen-Chimpuku, S.

    2015-12-01

    Integration of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) policies, their implementation measures and the contribution of these to development has been gaining attention recently. Due to the shared objectives of CCA and particularly Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a component of DRM, their integration provides many benefits. At the implementation level, DRR and CCA are usually integrated. Policy integration, however, is often lacking. This study presents a novel analysis of the policy integration of DRR and CCA by 1) suggesting a definition for their integration at a general and further at horizontal and vertical levels, 2) using an analysis framework for policy integration cycle, which separates the policy formulation and implementation processes, and 3) applying these to a case study in Zambia. Moreover, the study identifies the key gaps in the integration process, obtains an understanding of identified key factors for creating an enabling environment for the integration, and provides recommendations for further progress. The study is based on a document analysis of the relevant DRM, climate change (CC), agriculture, forestry, water management and meteorology policy documents and Acts, and 21 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Horizontal integration has occurred both ways, as the revised DRM policy draft has incorporated CCA, and the new CC policy draft has incorporated DRR. This is not necessarily an optimal strategy and unless carefully implemented, it may create pressure on institutional structures and duplication of efforts in the implementation. Much less vertical integration takes place, and where it does, no guidance on how potential goal conflicts with sectorial and development objectives ought to be handled. The objectives of the instruments show convergence. At the programme stage, the measures are fully integrated as they can be classified as robust CCA measures, providing benefits in the current and future

  14. Exposure assessment for trihalomethanes in municipal drinking water and risk reduction strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat

    2013-10-01

    Lifetime exposure to disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in municipal water may pose risks to human health. Current approaches of exposure assessments use DBPs in cold water during showering, while warming of chlorinated water during showering may increase trihalomethane (THM) formation in the presence of free residual chlorine. Further, DBP exposure through dermal contact during showering is estimated using steady-state condition between the DBPs in shower water impacting on human skin and skin exposed to shower water. The lag times to achieve steady-state condition between DBPs in shower water and human skin can vary in the range of 9.8-391.2 min, while shower duration is often less than the lag times. Assessment of exposure without incorporating these factors might have misinterpreted DBP exposure in some previous studies. In this study, exposure to THMs through ingestion was estimated using cold water THMs, while THM exposure through inhalation and dermal contact during showering was estimated using THMs in warm water. Inhalation of THMs was estimated using THM partition into the shower air, while dermal uptake was estimated by incorporating lag times (e.g., unsteady and steady-state phases of exposure) during showering. Probabilistic approach was followed to incorporate uncertainty in the assessment. Inhalation and dermal contact during showering contributed 25-60% of total exposure. Exposure to THMs during showering can be controlled by varying shower stall volume, shower duration and air exchange rate following power law equations. The findings might be useful in understanding exposure to THMs, which can be extended to other volatile compounds in municipal water.

  15. Is there an environmental benefit from remediation of a contaminated site? Combined assessments of the risk reduction and life cycle impact of remediation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Binning, Philip John;

    2012-01-01

    determined by a numerical risk assessment and remedial performance model, which predicted the contaminant mass discharge over time at a point of compliance in the aquifer and at the waterworks. The combined assessment of risk reduction and life cycle impacts showed that all management options result...

  16. Environmental Assessment: Bird Strike Risk Reduction at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    precautionary landing after the pilot reported engine vibration. Several fan blades on the engine were damaged and feathers were found in the engine...interference of signals from navigational aids, and providing an attractant such as small mammals for raptors or predatory animals. 1.3.1.1 Need for Bird...considered further as a treatment insecticide at LAFB to reduce bird strike risks. • Insect Growth Regulators - Growth -regulating insecticides generally

  17. When Are Qualitative Testing Results Sufficient To Predict a Reduction in Illnesses in a Microbiological Food Safety Risk Assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, Eric D; Williams, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Process models that include the myriad pathways that pathogen-contaminated food may traverse before consumption and the dose-response function to relate exposure to likelihood of illness may represent a "gold standard" for quantitative microbial risk assessment. Nevertheless, simplifications that rely on measuring the change in contamination occurrence of a raw food at the end of production may provide reasonable approximations of the effects measured by a process model. In this study, we parameterized three process models representing different product-pathogen pairs (i.e., chicken-Salmonella, chicken-Campylobacter, and beef-E. coli O157:H7) to compare with predictions based on qualitative testing of the raw product before consideration of mixing, partitioning, growth, attenuation, or dose-response processes. The results reveal that reductions in prevalence generated from qualitative testing of raw finished product usually underestimate the reduction in likelihood of illness for a population of consumers. Qualitative microbial testing results depend on the test's limit of detection. The negative bias is greater for limits of detection that are closer to the center of the contamination distribution and becomes less as the limit of detection is moved further into the right tail of the distribution. Nevertheless, a positive bias can result when the limit of detection refers to very high contamination levels. Changes in these high levels translate to larger consumed doses for which the slope of the dose-response function is smaller compared with the larger slope associated with smaller doses. Consequently, in these cases, a proportional reduction in prevalence of contamination results in a less than proportional reduction in probability of illness. The magnitudes of the biases are generally less for nonscalar (versus scalar) adjustments to the distribution.

  18. Assessment and risk reduction of infectious pathogens on chiropractic treatment tables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Husbands Chris

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To investigate the presence of pathogenic microbes on chiropractic treatment tables in one outpatient teaching clinic. Additional aims were to test inexpensive disinfectants on tables that may kill microbes and suggest infection control measures for chiropractic offices, clinics and classrooms. The aim of the study was to assess the presence of pathogenic microbes on treatment tables in one outpatient teaching clinic and determine a simple behavioral model for infection control including table disinfection and accepted hand washing and sanitizing protocols. Methods 10 treatment tables were selected and sampled for possible microbial flora on face and hand pieces. Samples were cultured on MacConky's agar and mannitol salt agar, labeled and incubated for up to 48 hours. Confirmatory testing of microbes to determine if drug resistant flora were present was performed. Among tables tested, 5 were selected to test disinfectants. One-half of the face piece and 1 hand piece were treated with two different wipes and then post-tested for microbes. Results Pathogenic microbes were present on chiropractic treatment tables including methicillin-resistant Staph aureus. Simple disinfectants neutralized the pathogens. A rudimentary disinfection procedure and infection control measures are suggested based on the findings. Conclusion Pathogenic microbes may be present on chiropractic treatment tables and can be effectively killed with proper disinfecting. Hand washing/sanitizing is an important measure in infection control as is table disinfecting. Rudimentary behavioral changes to improve chiropractic clinic infection control are needed. More comprehensive behavioral models are needed. All teaching clinics and private chiropractic offices should adopt infection control practices including routine table disinfecting and hand sanitizing. Effective measures can be put in place at minimal costs. Accrediting bodies of chiropractic institutions

  19. Consideration on the health risk reduction related to attainment of the new particulate matter standards in Poland: A top-down policy risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobza, Joanna; Pastuszka, Józef S; Gulis, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Policies can influence health of a population in various ways. Numerous epidemiological studies supported by toxicological investigations demonstrate a positive association between ambient concentrations of airborne particulate matter and increased adverse cardio-respiratory events, including morbidity and mortality. The aim of this paper was to present the concept of the top-down health policy risk assessment approach model developed to estimate the expected health risk reduction associated with policy aiming at attaining the new particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in diameter (PM10) standards in Poland. The top-down approach guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy to health outcomes. In this case study we tried to estimate the predicted health effects of the policy change over the past 20 years. Since Polish annual standard for PM10 changed from 50 μg/m³ in 1990 to 40 μg/m³ in 2010, we calculated the relative risk associated with decreasing PM10 in diameter to 10 μg/m3 in the annual level of PM10 for 6 adverse health effects. The relative risk slightly decreased for almost all adverse health effects, which means that the relative decrease in the incidence of health effects from the baseline incidence should range from about 0.5-0.6% for heart disease admissions to > 1% for respiratory admissions. The obtained results indicate that implementation of the new ambient air standards could influence improvement of the health status of Polish population. A top-down policy health risk assessment model can be one of the main tools in this process, providing harmonized guidance how to seek evidence-based information, which could serve policy-makers.

  20. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  1. The Wild Wild West: A Framework to Integrate mHealth Software Applications and Wearables to Support Physical Activity Assessment, Counseling and Interventions for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobelo, Felipe; Kelli, Heval M; Tejedor, Sheri Chernetsky; Pratt, Michael; McConnell, Michael V; Martin, Seth S; Welk, Gregory J

    2016-01-01

    Physical activity (PA) interventions constitute a critical component of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction programs. Objective mobile health (mHealth) software applications (apps) and wearable activity monitors (WAMs) can advance both assessment and integration of PA counseling in clinical settings and support community-based PA interventions. The use of mHealth technology for CVD risk reduction is promising, but integration into routine clinical care and population health management has proven challenging. The increasing diversity of available technologies and the lack of a comprehensive guiding framework are key barriers for standardizing data collection and integration. This paper reviews the validity, utility and feasibility of implementing mHealth technology in clinical settings and proposes an organizational framework to support PA assessment, counseling and referrals to community resources for CVD risk reduction interventions. This integration framework can be adapted to different clinical population needs. It should also be refined as technologies and regulations advance under an evolving health care system landscape in the United States and globally.

  2. The Wild Wild West: A Framework to Integrate mHealth Software Applications and Wearables to Support Physical Activity Assessment, Counseling and Interventions for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobelo, Felipe; Kelli, Heval M.; Tejedor, Sheri Chernetsky; Pratt, Michael; McConnell, Michael V.; Martin, Seth S.; Welk, Gregory J.

    2017-01-01

    Physical activity (PA) interventions constitute a critical component of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction programs. Objective mobile health (mHealth) software applications (apps) and wearable activity monitors (WAMs) can advance both assessment and integration of PA counseling in clinical settings and support community-based PA interventions. The use of mHealth technology for CVD risk reduction is promising, but integration into routine clinical care and population health management has proven challenging. The increasing diversity of available technologies and the lack of a comprehensive guiding framework are key barriers for standardizing data collection and integration. This paper reviews the validity, utility and feasibility of implementing mHealth technology in clinical settings and proposes an organizational framework to support PA assessment, counseling and referrals to community resources for CVD risk reduction interventions. This integration framework can be adapted to different clinical population needs. It should also be refined as technologies and regulations advance under an evolving health care system landscape in the United States and globally. PMID:26923067

  3. Changes in subclinical organ damage vs. in Framingham risk score for assessing cardiovascular risk reduction during continued antihypertensive treatment: a LIFE substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael H; Wachtell, Kristian; Ibsen, Hans;

    2011-01-01

    To investigate whether in-treatment measurements of subclinical organ damage (SOD) assessed by elevated urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy improved the prediction of the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal...... myocardial infarction and stroke beyond in-treatment Framingham risk score (FRS)....

  4. Integrating social capacity into risk reduction strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderbauer, S.; Pedoth, L.; Zebisch, M.

    2012-04-01

    The reduction of risk to impacts from external stresses and shocks is an important task in communities worldwide at all government levels and independent of the development status. The importance of building social capacity as part of risk reduction strategies is increasingly recognized. However, there is space for improvement to incorporate related activities into a holistic risk governance approach. Starting point for such enhancements is to promote and improve assessments of what is called 'sensitivity' or 'adaptive capacity' in the climate change community and what is named 'vulnerability' or 'resilience' in the hazard risk community. Challenging issues that need to be tackled in this context are the integration of concepts and method as well as the fusion of data. Against this background we introduce a method to assess regional adaptive capacity to climate change focusing on mountain areas accounting for sector specific problems. By considering three levels of specificity as base for the selection of most appropriate indicators the study results have the potential to support decision making regarding most appropriate adaptation actions. Advantages and shortcomings of certain aspects of adaptive capacity assessment in general and of the proposed method in particular are presented.

  5. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  6. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  7. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  8. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoornstra, E; Notermans, S

    2001-05-21

    The production of safe food is being increasingly based on the use of risk analysis, and this process is now in use to establish national and international food safety objectives. It is also being used more frequently to guarantee that safety objectives are met and that such guarantees are achieved in a cost-effective manner. One part of the overall risk analysis procedure-risk assessment-is the scientific process in which the hazards and risk factors are identified, and the risk estimate or risk profile is determined. Risk assessment is an especially important tool for governments when food safety objectives have to be developed in the case of 'new' contaminants in known products or known contaminants causing trouble in 'new' products. Risk assessment is also an important approach for food companies (i) during product development, (ii) during (hygienic) process optimalization, and (iii) as an extension (validation) of the more qualitative HACCP-plan. This paper discusses these two different types of risk assessment, and uses probability distribution functions to assess the risks posed by Escherichia coli O157:H7 in each case. Such approaches are essential elements of risk management, as they draw on all available information to derive accurate and realistic estimations of the risk posed. The paper also discusses the potential of scenario-analysis in simulating the impact of different or modified risk factors during the consideration of new or improved control measures.

  9. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  10. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  11. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  12. Smoke and mirrors: Limited value of relative risk reductions for assessing the benefits of disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Magd

    2015-05-01

    A reduction in relapse rate is the main primary outcome in most clinical trials in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), with the effect of a treatment commonly expressed as relative risk reduction for this outcome. Physicians often assume that a drug with a higher relative risk reduction demonstrated in one trial is more effective than a drug with a lower relative risk reduction in another, and may pass this idea on to younger physicians and to patients. The use of the relative risk reduction as a measure of drug efficacy can be misleading, as it depends on the nature of the population studied: a treatment effect characterized by a lower relative risk reduction may be more clinically meaningful than one with a higher relative risk reduction. This concept is especially important with regard to clinical trials in patients with MS, where relapse rates in placebo groups have been declining in recent decades. Direct, head-to-head comparisons are the only way to compare the efficacy of the different treatments for MS.

  13. Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

    2006-01-01

    of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual......Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation...

  14. Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

    2006-01-01

    Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual...... approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation...

  15. SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF LEVEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Rosidi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A seismic risk assessment procedure for earth embankments and levees is presented. The procedure consists of three major elements: (1 probability of ground motion at the site, (2 probability of levee failure given a level of ground motion has occurred and (3 expected loss resulting from the failure. This paper discusses the first two elements of the risk assessment. The third element, which includes economic losses and human casualty, will not be presented herein. The ground motions for risk assessment are developed using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A two-dimensional finite element analysis is performed to estimate the dynamic responses of levee, and the probability of levee failure is calculated using the levee fragility curve. The overall objective of the assessment is to develop an analytical tool for assessing the failure risk and the effectiveness of various levee strengthening alternatives for risk reduction. An example of the procedure, as it applies to a levee built along the perimeter of an island for flood protection and water storage, is presented. Variations in earthquake ground motion and soil and water conditions at the site are incorporated in the risk assessment. The effects of liquefaction in the foundation soils are also considered.

  16. THE ASSESSMENT AND REDUCTION OF CARDIAC EVENTS RISK IN NONCARDIAC OPERATIONS: IS THERE A NEED FOR REVIEW OF RECOMMENDATIONS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Sumin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the pressing problems of modern cardiology is the cardiac complications risk evaluation and correction in noncardiac surgery. Recent international guidelines on this issue have focused on the pharmacological prevention of complications while reducing the preoperative examination and preventive revascularization. The reason for this experts position has been a series of studies DECREASE, performed in the Erasmus Medical Center (The Netherlands under the supervision of Professor D. Poldermans. However, this summer the results of these studies have found no scientific value because of the significant irregularities in their conduct. It makes to have a new look at the problem of perioperative medicine, to rethink the available scientific evidence. In this review we discussed in detail the use of beta-blockers in noncardiac surgery in view of new circumstances.

  17. THE ASSESSMENT AND REDUCTION OF CARDIAC EVENTS RISK IN NONCARDIAC OPERATIONS: IS THERE A NEED FOR REVIEW OF RECOMMENDATIONS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Sumin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the pressing problems of modern cardiology is the cardiac complications risk evaluation and correction in noncardiac surgery. Recent international guidelines on this issue have focused on the pharmacological prevention of complications while reducing the preoperative examination and preventive revascularization. The reason for this experts position has been a series of studies DECREASE, performed in the Erasmus Medical Center (The Netherlands under the supervision of Professor D. Poldermans. However, this summer the results of these studies have found no scientific value because of the significant irregularities in their conduct. It makes to have a new look at the problem of perioperative medicine, to rethink the available scientific evidence. In this review we discussed in detail the use of beta-blockers in noncardiac surgery in view of new circumstances.

  18. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  19. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  20. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular patient......, and aid in the development of an individualized and targeted preventive and management plan....

  1. Assessment and reduction of proliferation risk of reactor-grade plutonium regarding construction of ‘fizzle bombs’ by terrorists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serfontein, Dawid E., E-mail: Dawid.Serfontein@nwu.ac.za [School for Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (PUK-Campus), PRIVATE BAG X6001 (Internal Post Box 360), Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); Mulder, Eben J. [School for Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North West University (South Africa); Reitsma, Frederik [Calvera Consultants (South Africa)

    2014-05-01

    The approximately 23.7 wt% {sup 240}Pu in reactor-grade plutonium denatures the {sup 239}Pu to the extent that it cannot fuel high yield nuclear weapons. {sup 240}Pu has a high spontaneous fission rate, which increases the spontaneous neutron flux within the fuel. When such a nuclear weapon is triggered, these neutrons cause the nuclear fission chain reaction to pre-detonate which blows the imploding fuel shell apart before the designed level of compression and reactivity could be attained, thereby greatly reducing the average energy yield of such “fizzle” bombs. Therefore reactor-grade plutonium is normally viewed as highly proliferation resistant. In this article the literature on the proliferation resistance of reactor-grade plutonium and on the mechanism and effect of fizzle bombs is reviewed in order to test this view. It is shown that even very low yield fizzle bombs, exploded in urban areas, would still cause serious blast damage as well as radioactive contamination. Combined with the high levels of induced terror, fizzle bombs might thus be attractive psychological weapons for terrorists. Therefore reactor-grade plutonium may not be sufficiently proliferation resistant against nuclear terrorism. However, denaturisation with more than 9% {sup 238}Pu produces high levels of decay heat which will melt or explode the high explosives around uncooled implosion type weapons, rendering them useless. Unfortunately, reactor-grade Pu contains only 2.7% {sup 238}Pu and is thus not sufficiently proliferation resistant in this respect. It is also shown that the associated neptunium poses a substantial proliferation risk. In the present study strong improvement of the proliferation resistance was demonstrated by simulation of incineration of reactor-grade plutonium in the 400 MW{sub th} Pebble Bed Modular Reactor Demonstration Power Plant. Results for modified fuel cycles, aimed at transmutating {sup 237}Np to {sup 238}Pu are also reported. However, these

  2. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Risk Assessment Related tests: Lipid Profile , VLDL Cholesterol , hs-CRP , Lp(a) Overview | Common Questions | Related Pages What ... cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring CRP with a ...

  3. A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification

  4. Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

    The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

  5. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

  6. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  7. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  8. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  9. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  10. Risk assessment in travel medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggat, Peter A

    2006-01-01

    Risk assessment is an integral part of pre-travel and post- assessment. Risk assessment largely determines what health and safety advice and interventions are given within the relevant prevailing travel health guidelines. Risk assessment needs time and depends on information, including that given by the traveller. Risk assessment also needs to be documented. Risk assessment of the traveller preferably starts before they enter the consulting room, where travellers may complete a pre-travel health questionnaire. Armed with this information, risk assessment may be assisted by access to computerised travel health databases and the published literature. Experience of travel to the destination may also assist in risk assessment and the tour operator, overseas employer or agency, the traveller or even the travel health advisers themselves may provide this information.

  11. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  12. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  13. Risk assessment for carnitine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathcock, John N; Shao, Andrew

    2006-10-01

    Carnitine is a conditionally essential amino acid-like compound involved in the transport of long-chain fatty acids into the mitochondria during the beta-oxidation process. Carnitine has become an increasingly popular ingredient in dietary supplements, especially weight loss and some sports nutrition products. A number of clinical trials have been conducted examining the effect of carnitine supplementation on weight loss and energy balance. Regarding safety, systematic evaluation of the research designs and data do not provide a basis for risk assessment and the usual safe upper level of intake (UL) derived from it unless the newer methods described as the observed safe level (OSL) or highest observed intake (HOI) are utilized. The OSL risk assessment method indicates that the evidence of safety is strong at intakes up to 2000mg/day l-carnitine equivalents for chronic supplementation, and this level is identified as the OSL. Although much higher levels have been tested without adverse effects and may be safe, the data for intakes above 2000mg/day are not sufficient for a confident conclusion of long-term safety.

  14. Risk assessment methodology for the forniture industrial sector

    OpenAIRE

    Rodrigues, Matilde A.

    2014-01-01

    Companies need to constantly make decisions about risk. They need to decide if a certain risk level is low enough or if some measures for its reduction are still needed. In this regard, risk assessment appears as a basis for the decision-making about risks. However, risk acceptance is an important issue related to the risk assessment process, which may put into question its appropriateness. Despite the importance of risk acceptance, this subject is insufficiently discussed in the literature r...

  15. Tools for microbiological risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bassett, J; Nauta, M; Lindqvist, R.; Zwietering, M. H.

    2012-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute ...

  16. Local governance in disaster risk reduction in Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buh-Wung Gaston

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available At the 2005 World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction held in Hyogo, Japan, 168 countries including Cameroon adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action, committing to take action to reduce human and socio-economic disaster losses. Geotechnology, Environmental Assessment and Disaster Risk Reduction was commissioned by the Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Risk Reduction as the coordinating organisation in Cameroon to evaluate progress in implementation of the framework from the civil society perspective, particularly the role of local governance in disaster risk reduction (DRR. Seven regions of the country were identified for evaluation, where people have suffered losses from disasters during the last three decades. Three approaches were used: administration of questionnaires; consultations with local communities; and four case studies. It was found that there was significant scope for improvement on individual local governance indicators, and that effective progress depends on:1. level of achievement in the decentralisation process currently under way.2. adoption of a participatory approach to DRR.3. clear distribution of roles in the DRR process.4. adequate allocation of necessary financial and human resources.5. enhancement of capacity of local communities to prepare for and respond to all types of disasters.Creation of an independent body to carry out fundamental research, forecast new and emerging hazards and manage all disasters in the country will contribute greatly to moving things forward.

  17. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  18. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  19. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  20. At the Crossroads: Hazard Assessment and Reduction of Health Risks from Arsenic in Private Well Waters of Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yan; Ayotte, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    This special issue contains 12 papers that report on new understanding of arsenic hydrogeochemistry, performance of household well water treatment systems, and testing and treatment behaviors of well users in several states of the northeastern region of the United States and Nova Scotia, Canada. The responsibility to ensure water safety of private wells falls on well owners. In the U.S., 43 million Americans, mostly from rural areas, use private wells. In order to reduce As exposure in rural populations that rely on private wells for drinking water, risk assessment, which includes estimation of population at risk of exposure to As above the EPA Maximum Contaminant Level, is helpful but insufficient because it does not identify individual households at risk. Persistent optimism bias among well owners against testing and barriers such as cost of treatment mean that a large percentage of the population will not act to reduce their exposure to harmful substances such as As. If households are in areas with known As occurrence, a potentially large percentage of well owners will remain unaware of their exposure. To ensure that everyone, including vulnerable populations such as low income families with children and pregnant women, is not exposed to arsenic in their drinking water, alternative action will be required and warrants further research. PMID:25466685

  1. At the crossroads: Hazard assessment and reduction of health risks from arsenic in private well waters of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yan; Ayotte, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    This special issue contains 12 papers that report on new understanding of arsenic (As) hydrogeochemistry, performance of household well water treatment systems, and testing and treatment behaviors of well users in several states of the northeastern region of the United States and Nova Scotia, Canada. The responsibility to ensure water safety of private wells falls on well owners. In the U.S., 43 million Americans, mostly from rural areas, use private wells. In order to reduce As exposure in rural populations that rely on private wells for drinking water, risk assessment, which includes estimation of population at risk of exposure to As above the EPA Maximum Contaminant Level, is helpful but insufficient because it does not identify individual households at risk. Persistent optimistic bias among well owners against testing and barriers such as cost of treatment mean that a large percentage of the population will not act to reduce their exposure to harmful substances such as As. If households are in areas with known As occurrence, a potentially large percentage of well owners will remain unaware of their exposure. To ensure that everyone, including vulnerable populations such as low income families with children and pregnant women, is not exposed to arsenic in their drinking water, alternative action will be required and warrants further research.

  2. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  4. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  5. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  6. New Methodology for Rapid Seismic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melikyan, A. E.; Balassanian, S. Y.

    2002-05-01

    Seismic risk is growing worldwide and is, increasingly, a problem of developing countries. Along with growing urbanization future earthquakes will have more disastrous social and economic consequences. Seismic risk assessment and reduction are important goals for each country located in seismically active zone. For Armenia these goals are of primary importance because the results of studies carried out by Armenian NSSP for assessment of the losses caused by various types of disasters in Armenia had shown that earthquakes are the most disastrous hazard for Armenia. The strategy for seismic risk reduction in 1999 was adopted by the Government of Armenia as a high priority state program. The world experience demonstrates that for efficient response the rapid assessment of seismic losses is necessary. There are several state-of-the-art approaches for seismic risk assessment (Radius, Hazus, etc.). All of them required large amount of various input data, which is impossible to collect in many developing countries, in particular in Armenia. Taking into account this very serious problem existing for developing countries, as well as rapid seismic risk assessment need immediately after strong earthquake the author undertake the attempt to contribute into a new approach for rapid seismic risk assessment under the supervision of Prof. S. Balassanian. The analysis of numerous factors influencing seismic risk in Armenia shows that the following elements contribute most significantly to the possible losses: seismic hazard; density of population; vulnerability of structures. Proposed approach for rapid seismic risk assessment based on these three factors has been tested for several seismic events. These tests have shown that such approach might represent from 80 to 90 percent of real losses.

  7. NASA's Orbital Space Plane Risk Reduction Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumbacher, Dan

    2003-01-01

    This paper documents the transformation of NASA s Space Launch Initiative (SLI) Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program under the revised Integrated Space Transportation Plan, announced November 2002. Outlining the technology development approach followed by the original SLI, this paper gives insight into the current risk-reduction strategy that will enable confident development of the Nation s first orbital space plane (OSP). The OSP will perform an astronaut and contingency cargo transportation function, with an early crew rescue capability, thus enabling increased crew size and enhanced science operations aboard the International Space Station. The OSP design chosen for full-scale development will take advantage of the latest innovations American industry has to offer. The OSP Program identifies critical technologies that must be advanced to field a safe, reliable, affordable space transportation system for U.S. access to the Station and low-Earth orbit. OSP flight demonstrators will test crew safety features, validate autonomous operations, and mature thermal protection systems. Additional enabling technologies may be identified during the OSP design process as part of an overall risk-management strategy. The OSP Program uses a comprehensive and evolutionary systems acquisition approach, while applying appropriate lessons learned.

  8. Coastal community resilience in climate adaptation and risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Mie; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    resilience to an undesired extent. In conclusion, the study points to the potential in combining and merging natural and social science approaches for climate adaptation and disaster risk management to strengthen municipal decision-making, allow for better planning measures, and to strengthen community...... the local municipalities to implement additional measures. For the fjord towns of Thyborøn (pop. 2100, located towards the North Sea by the Thyborøn Channel) and Løgstør (pop. 4000, located approximately 80 km east from the North Sea) flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments and mapping...... are combined with community resilience studies to provide the corresponding municipalities with a more elaborate knowledge platform for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Community resilience is investigated in four dimensions (information & communication, community competence, social capital...

  9. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH...... Regulation. Chemical risk assessment provides a fundamental element in support of existing legislation. Risk assessment is normally said to consist of four elements, i.e., hazard identification, dose–response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Each of these four elements hold......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  10. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.).

  11. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  12. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...

  13. [Risk assessment of chemical agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena; Bartolucci, Giovanni Battista

    2011-01-01

    The risk assessment of chemical agents is a well known and applied process carried out by Industrial Hygienists and Occupational Physicians based on exposure evaluation. The application of REACH (CE 1907/2006), CLP (CE 1272/2008) and SDS (UE 453/2010) introduces some changes and instruments to carry out the occupational exposure assessment, like new classification of substances, Exposure Scenario, suggested control measures that the Industrial Hygienist and the Occupational Physician must evaluate. If there is not a similar Exposure Scenario to apply a new risk assessment must carried out also by recommended software (ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment; Easy to use workplace EMKG; Stoffenmanager). Looking at the relevance of the control measures and evaluation of Exposure Scenario we report the flowchart of risk assessment and management by the Method of Organisational Congruencies carried out with the Prevention and Protection Service and Occupational Physician Office of the Health Service of the Azienda Provinciale of Trento.

  14. Regional transportation network blocked by snowdrifts: assessment of risk reduction strategies by the example of the wind event of February 2015 in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voumard, Jérémie; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2016-04-01

    where an accessibility is crucial to be maintained. We analyze then the road network to highlight the roads vulnerability from snowdrifts with topographic and meteorological indicators. We also assess the ratio cost/benefit of different measures limiting snowdrifts. We finally discuss strategies to reduce the risk of this winter meteorological event.

  15. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  16. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... be a poor substitute for a proper risk assessment as low potency substances can constitute a risk if the exposure is high enough and vice versa. Examples illustrating the strength and limitations of hazard classification, risk assessment and toxicological potency will be presented with focus on reproductive...

  17. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  18. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  19. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  20. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  1. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria. ...

  2. Cancer risk assessment of toxaphene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buranatrevedh, Surasak

    2004-07-01

    The primary purpose is to do cancer risk assessment of toxaphene by using four steps of risk assessment proposed by the United States National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Four steps of risk assessment including hazard identification, dose-response relationship, exposure assessment, and risk characterization were used to evaluate cancer risk of toxaphene. Toxaphene was the most heavily used insecticide in many parts of the world before it was banned in 1982. It increased incidence of neoplasms of liver and uterus in mice and increased incidence of neoplasms of endocrine organs, thyroid, pituitary, adrenal, mammary glands, and reproductive systems in rats. From mice's and rats' study, slope factor for toxaphene is 0.8557 (mg/ kg/day)(-1). Lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of toxaphene from ambient air, surface water, soil, and fish were 1.08 x 10(-6), 5.71 x 10(-6), 3.43 x 10(-7), and 7.96 x 10(-5) mg/kg/day, respectively. Cancer risk of toxaphene for average exposure is 7.42 x 10(-5). From this study, toxaphene might have carcinogenic risk among humans.

  3. Suicide Risk Assessment in Adolescents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Larsen, Kim Juul; Horwood, John

    2016-01-01

    Background: Assessment and screening are often the first step in planning interventions to help adolescents at risk of suicide. Causes of suicidal thoughts and behavior are multifaceted and it is important for clinical work that assessment reflects this complexity. Aim(s): To investigate whether ...

  4. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  5. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than......PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  6. Global flood risk modelling and its applications for disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Bierkens, Marc; Bouwman, Arno; van Beek, Rens; Ligtvoet, Willem; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Flooding of river systems is the most costly natural hazard affecting societies around the world, with an average of 55 billion in direct losses and 4,500 fatalities each year between 1990 and 2012. The accurate and consistent assessment of flood risk on a global scale is essential for international development organizations and the reinsurance industry, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. This need is especially felt in developing countries, where local data and models are largely unavailable, and where flood risk is increasing rapidly under strong population growth and economic development. Here we present ongoing applications of high-resolution flood risk modelling at a global scale. The work is based on GLOFRIS, a modelling chain that produces flood risk maps at a 1km spatial resolution for the entire globe, under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios and various past and future time periods. This modelling chain combines a hydrological inundation model with socioeconomic datasets to assess past, current and future population exposure; economic damages; and agricultural risk. These tools are currently applied scientifically to gain insights in geographical patterns in current risk, and to assess the effects of possible future scenarios under climate change and climate variability. In this presentation we show recent applications from global scale to national scales. The global scale applications include global risk profiling for the reinsurance industry; and novel estimation of global flood mortality risk. In addition it will be demonstrated how the global flood modelling approach was successfully applied to assess disaster risk reduction priorities on a national scale in Africa. Finally, we indicate how these global modelling tools can be used to quantify the costs and benefits of adaptation, and explore pathways for development under a changing environment.

  7. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.

  8. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2016-12-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  9. [Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

    2007-04-01

    This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

  10. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Ch

  11. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc.......A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...

  12. ANTHROPIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON BIODIVERSITY

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niche...

  13. Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    AMSAA Kadry Rizk, TARDEC Lisa Graf, TARDEC Klaus Sanford, TRAC Elyse Krezmien, TRAC Jerry Scriven, ALU Igor Linkov, ERDC Alison Tichenor...Engineering ATEC - Army Test and Evaluation Command BCA - Business Case Analysis C - Consequence Level C- BA - Cost Benefit Analysis CDD...the AMSAA Risk Team has completed 12 technical and schedule risk assessments to support AoAs and Cost-Benefit Analyses (C- BAs ). AMSAA also developed

  14. Tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Strunz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS the assessment of tsunami risk is an essential part of the overall activities. The scientific and technical approach for the tsunami risk assessment has been developed and the results are implemented in the national Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre and are provided to the national and regional disaster management and spatial planning institutions in Indonesia.

    The paper explains the underlying concepts and applied methods and shows some of the results achieved in the GITEWS project (Rudloff et al., 2009. The tsunami risk assessment has been performed at an overview scale at sub-national level covering the coastal areas of southern Sumatra, Java and Bali and also on a detailed scale in three pilot areas. The results are provided as thematic maps and GIS information layers for the national and regional planning institutions. From the analyses key parameters of tsunami risk are derived, which are integrated and stored in the decision support system of the national Indonesian Early Warning Centre. Moreover, technical descriptions and guidelines were elaborated to explain the developed approach, to allow future updates of the results and the further development of the methodologies, and to enable the local authorities to conduct tsunami risk assessment by using their own resources.

  15. Semantic Mediation Tool for Risk Reduction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project focuses on providing an infrastructure to aid the building of ontologies from existing NASA applications, in a manner that leads to long-term risk...

  16. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  17. Toward Risk Reduction for Mobile Service Composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shuiguang; Huang, Longtao; Li, Ying; Zhou, Honggeng; Wu, Zhaohui; Cao, Xiongfei; Kataev, Mikhail Yu; Li, Ling

    2016-08-01

    The advances in mobile technologies enable us to consume or even provide services through powerful mobile devices anytime and anywhere. Services running on mobile devices within limited range can be composed to coordinate together through wireless communication technologies and perform complex tasks. However, the mobility of users and devices in mobile environment imposes high risk on the execution of the tasks. This paper targets reducing this risk by constructing a dependable service composition after considering the mobility of both service requesters and providers. It first proposes a risk model and clarifies the risk of mobile service composition; and then proposes a service composition approach by modifying the simulated annealing algorithm. Our objective is to form a service composition by selecting mobile services under the mobility model and to ensure the service composition have the best quality of service and the lowest risk. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach can yield near-optimal solutions and has a nearly linear complexity with respect to a problem size.

  18. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  19. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  20. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  1. Mathematical modelling of risk reduction in reinsurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balashov, R. B.; Kryanev, A. V.; Sliva, D. E.

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a mathematical model of efficient portfolio formation in the reinsurance markets. The presented approach provides the optimal ratio between the expected value of return and the risk of yield values below a certain level. The uncertainty in the return values is conditioned by use of expert evaluations and preliminary calculations, which result in expected return values and the corresponding risk levels. The proposed method allows for implementation of computationally simple schemes and algorithms for numerical calculation of the numerical structure of the efficient portfolios of reinsurance contracts of a given insurance company.

  2. Taking stock of decentralized disaster risk reduction in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, Anthony; Gersonius, Berry; Makarigakis, Alexandros

    2016-09-01

    The Sendai Framework, which outlines the global course on disaster risk reduction until 2030, places strong importance on the role of local government in disaster risk reduction. An aim of decentralization is to increase the influence and authority of local government in decision making. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence of the extent, character and effects of decentralization in current disaster risk reduction implementation, and of the barriers that are most critical to this. This paper evaluates decentralization in relation to disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, chosen for its recent actions to decentralize governance of DRR coupled with a high level of disaster risk. An analytical framework was developed to evaluate the various dimensions of decentralized disaster risk reduction, which necessitated the use of a desk study, semi-structured interviews and a gap analysis. Key barriers to implementation in Indonesia included: capacity gaps at lower institutional levels, low compliance with legislation, disconnected policies, issues in communication and coordination and inadequate resourcing. However, any of these barriers are not unique to disaster risk reduction, and similar barriers have been observed for decentralization in other developing countries in other public sectors.

  3. NEPA, EPA and risk assessment: Has EPA lost its way?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2012-11-01

    The EPA risk assessment practice denies the inclusion of beneficial responses in the evaluation process. This practice represents a marked deviation from the original guidelines set forth within NEPA, which required the integrated goal of environmental protection as including both a reduction in risk as well as an enhancement of health benefit. It is time for regulatory agencies such as EPA to incorporate both harm and benefit within its risk assessment process.

  4. Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy: Quantification of Lymphedema Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-10-01

    Quantification of Lymphedema Risk Reduction PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Andrea L. Cheville, M.D. CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: University of...Biopsy: Quantification of Lymphedema Risk Reduction 5b. GRANT NUMBER DAMD17-00-1-0649 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Andrea L. Cheville...Distribution Unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Lymphedema is a common complication of primary breast cancer therapy. It

  5. Business Continuity Planning for Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Andreea ZAMFIR; Delia TUDOR; PLUMB Ion

    2007-01-01

    The paper outlines the business continuity planning as a methodology that could be used by organizations in order to reduce the risks that occur both at the organizational level and in its outside environment. There are presented the main objectives and steps in business continuity planning process. In the end of the paper are presented some issues that organizations should take into consideration in the implementation of business continuity planning process projects.

  6. Risk Reduction Technologies in General Practice and Social Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devin Rexvid

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available General practitioners (GPs and social workers (SWs are professions whose professional autonomy and discretion have changed in the so-called risk and audit society. The aim of this article is to compare GPs’ and SWs’ responses to Evidence-Based and Organizational Risk Reduction Technologies (ERRT and ORRT. It is based on a content analysis of 54 peer-reviewed empirical articles. The results show that both professions held ambivalent positions towards ERRT. The response towards ORRT differed in that GPs were sceptical whilst SWs took a more pragmatic view. Furthermore the results suggest that SWs might experience professional benefits by adopting an adherent approach to the increased dissemination of risk reduction technologies (RRT. GPs, however, did not seem to experience such benefits. Keywords: Profession, risk, social worker, general practitioner, risk reduction technologies, evidence-based practice/medicine 

  7. Cancer Risks in Aluminum Reduction Plant Workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labrèche, France

    2014-01-01

    Objective and Methods: This review examines epidemiological evidence relating to cancers in the primary aluminum industry where most of what is known relates to Söderberg operations or to mixed Söderberg/prebake operations. Results and Conclusions: Increased lung and bladder cancer risks have been reported in Söderberg workers from several countries, but not in all. After adjustment for smoking, these cancer risks still increase with cumulative exposure to benzo(a)pyrene, used as an index of coal tar pitch volatiles exposure. Limited evidence has been gathered in several cohorts for an increased risk of tumors at other sites, including stomach, pancreas, rectum/rectosigmoid junction, larynx, buccal cavity/pharynx, kidney, brain/nervous system, prostate, and lymphatic/hematopoietic tissues (in particular non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin disease, and leukemia). Nevertheless, for most of these tumor sites, the relationship with specific exposures has not been demonstrated clearly and further follow-up of workers is warranted. PMID:24806725

  8. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  9. Special Diabetes Program for Indians: Retention in Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manson, Spero M.; Jiang, Luohua; Zhang, Lijing; Beals, Janette; Acton, Kelly J.; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined the associations between participant and site characteristics and retention in a multisite cardiovascular disease risk reduction project. Design and Methods: Data were derived from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project, an intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk among American…

  10. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  11. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  12. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth.

  13. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  14. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  15. Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan

    2017-03-01

    When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.

  16. [Risk assessment in pain therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeffel, D; Casser, H R; Bach, M; Kress, H G; Likar, R; Locher, H; Steinleitner, W; Strohmeier, M; Brunner, H; Treede, R D; Zieglgänsberger, W; Sandkühler, J

    2008-10-01

    Analgesic therapy is not without risk. However, the risk of most analgesic interventions is minor compared to the risk of the inadequate treatment of pain and insufficient treatment may lead to chronic pain.A correct diagnosis should be the basis of any specific treatment of pain disorders. Only a diagnosis which implicates a multi-disciplinary assessment and which considers both the pathoanatomical, functional and biopsychosocial dysfunctions can lead to an adequate therapeutic intervention. Furthermore, therapeutic planning should include the personal needs of the patient and should have realistic aims.Pharmacological treatment is guided by the WHO pain ladder. The risks of the relevant substance groups must be considered. NSAIDs (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) which are included in all steps of the WHO pain ladder carry specific risks for the gastrointestinal, cardiovascular and renal systems and are contraindicated in many patients in need of analgesic therapy, e.g. in many elderly patients. Opioids which are recommended at steps 2 and 3 of the WHO pain ladder have less organ toxicity but they are still used reluctantly. Coanalgetics, especially antidepressants bear specific risks and the discussion on suicide rates under antidepressant medication is ongoing.Invasive methods such as the intrathecal application of analgesics are valuable procedures if the indication is correct and the treating physician has sufficient experience. Pain therapy is essential and the risks of the procedures are manageable. Considering the current knowledge on the mechanisms of pain sensitisation, the lack of adequate pain control can lead to chronic pain with severe consequences for the patient.

  17. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, Klaas Jan; Homan, Greg; Brown, Rich; Worrell, Ernst; Masanet, Eric

    2009-04-15

    The term ?household carbon footprint? refers to the total annual carbon emissions associated with household consumption of energy, goods, and services. In this project, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory developed a carbon footprint modeling framework that characterizes the key underlying technologies and processes that contribute to household carbon footprints in California and the United States. The approach breaks down the carbon footprint by 35 different household fuel end uses and 32 different supply chain fuel end uses. This level of end use detail allows energy and policy analysts to better understand the underlying technologies and processes contributing to the carbon footprint of California households. The modeling framework was applied to estimate the annual home energy and supply chain carbon footprints of a prototypical California household. A preliminary assessment of parameter uncertainty associated with key model input data was also conducted. To illustrate the policy-relevance of this modeling framework, a case study was conducted that analyzed the achievable carbon footprint reductions associated with the adoption of energy efficient household and supply chain technologies.

  18. Microenterprise development interventions for sexual risk reduction: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Rosa R; Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E; Tucker, Joseph D

    2013-11-01

    Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies.

  19. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  20. Fear of AIDS and Risk Reduction among Heroin-Addicted Female Street Prostitutes: Personal Interviews with 72 Southern California Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellis, David J.

    1990-01-01

    Interviewed 72 heroin-addicted female street prostitutes and assessed fear of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), AIDS risk reduction behavior, and prostitutes' recommendations for AIDS risk reduction programs. Self-reported data showed that, although subjects were afraid of AIDS, irrationality produced by addiction compelled risky…

  1. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William W. Weiss

    2000-12-31

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is proposed for development through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This tool will be beneficial in many regions of the US, enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting and decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the US as reserves are depleted. The proposed expert exploration tool will benefit a diverse group in the US, leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds and lower product prices for consumers. This third of ten semi-annual reports contains an account of the progress, problems encountered, plans for the next quarter, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress.

  2. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William W. Weiss

    2001-09-30

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. As a result, today's pool of experts is much reduced. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds and lower product prices for consumers. This fifth of ten semi-annual reports contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the May 2001 through September 2001 was directed toward development of rules for the fuzzy system.

  3. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Balch

    2003-04-15

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The pool of experts is much reduced today. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds, and possibly decreasing dependence on foreign oil and lower product prices for consumers. This fourth of five annual reports contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the April 2002 through March 2003 period was directed toward Silurian-Devonian geology, development of rules for the fuzzy system, and on-line software.

  4. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.......Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  5. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  6. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  7. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  8. Risk reduction technologies in general practice and social work

    OpenAIRE

    Rexvid, Devin; Blom, Björn; Evertsson, Lars; Forssén, Annika

    2012-01-01

    General practitioners (GPs) and social workers (SWs) are professions whose professional autonomy and discretion have changed in the so-called risk and audit society. The aim of this article is to compare GPs’ and SWs’ responses to Evidence-Based and Organizational Risk Reduction Technologies (ERRT and ORRT). It is based on a content analysis of 54 peer-reviewed empirical articles. The results show that both professions held ambivalent positions towards ERRT. The response towards ORRT differed...

  9. Risk Reduction Technologies in General Practice and Social Work

    OpenAIRE

    Devin Rexvid; Björn Blom; Lars Evertsson; Annika Forssén

    2012-01-01

    General practitioners (GPs) and social workers (SWs) are professions whose professional autonomy and discretion have changed in the so-called risk and audit society. The aim of this article is to compare GPs’ and SWs’ responses to Evidence-Based and Organizational Risk Reduction Technologies (ERRT and ORRT). It is based on a content analysis of 54 peer-reviewed empirical articles. The results show that both professions held ambivalent positions towards ERRT. The response towards ORRT differed...

  10. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wegscheider

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences.

    The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1 identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2 bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3 can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk.

    Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  11. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  12. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  13. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  14. 76 FR 41278 - Cargo Security Risk Reduction; Public Listening Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-13

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard Cargo Security Risk Reduction; Public Listening Sessions AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS..., transfer, and storage of Certain Dangerous Cargo (CDC) in bulk within the U.S. Marine Transportation System....Bergan@uscg.mil . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Background In September 2009, the Coast Guard held a...

  15. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  16. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  17. Portfolio Assessment: Production and Reduction of Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qvortrup, Ane; Keiding, Tina Bering

    2015-01-01

    Over the last two decades, the education system has witnessed a shift from summative, product-oriented assessment towards formative, process-oriented assessment. Among the different learning and assessment initiatives introduced in the slipstream of this paradigmatic turn, the portfolio seems to have become one of the most popular. By redescribing…

  18. POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

    2001-09-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

  19. Risk and potential risk reduction in diabetes type 2 patients in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häussler, Bertram; Berger, Ursula; Mast, Oliver; Thefeld, Wolfgang

    2005-06-01

    Avoiding serious complications such as stroke, myocardial infarction, and amputations in diabetes patients is the main interest of long-term treatment. Given the considerable prevalence of diabetes type 2 in industrialized countries this is a major public health concern as well as a burden to health care systems. The present study estimated the current risk of major complications occurring in the German diabetes type 2 population and explored the potential for further risk reduction. Risk reduction can be achieved when physiological and behavioral parameters (HbAlc, blood pressure, cholesterol level, body mass index, smoking) are set to target values recommended in guidelines. To estimate individual risk and potential risk reduction the multifactor disease model Mellibase was employed. Data were obtained from the German Health Survey of 1998, which includes a sample of 7,124 individuals representative of the German population. The survey shows a prevalence rate of 6.3% for diabetes type 2 in persons older than 35 years. The analyses reveal that the overall potential for risk reduction is moderate (e.g., the average reduction potential of the 10-year risk of stroke is 5.7%). A majority of parameter ranges found in the patient population are either already close to the recommended values (HbA1c), are not alarmingly higher than in the general population (blood pressure) or have little impact on risk reduction. In addition nonmodifiable risk factors such as duration of the illness and advanced age constrain possible improvements. However, there is a wide variation in the actual risk between individuals (e.g., the 10-year risk of stroke varies between 2.2% and 79.8%), and thus a wide variation in potential risk reduction (the risk reduction potential for stroke varies between 0% and 53.4%). Intensified treatment should therefore (a) focus on relevant subgroups of patients taking their risk reduction potential into account and (b) aim at improvement in the overall

  20. From Hazard to Risk - Assessing the Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Houben, G.; Hattersley, S.; Crevel, R.W.R.; Remington, B.C.; Baumert, J.L.

    2013-01-01

    Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds fo

  1. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  2. Issues of fish consumption for cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raatz, Susan K; Silverstein, Jeffrey T; Jahns, Lisa; Picklo, Matthew J

    2013-03-28

    Increasing fish consumption is recommended for intake of omega-3 (n-3) fatty acids and to confer benefits for the risk reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most Americans are not achieving intake levels that comply with current recommendations. It is the goal of this review to provide an overview of the issues affecting this shortfall of intake. Herein we describe the relationship between fish intake and CVD risk reduction as well as the other nutritional contributions of fish to the diet. Currently recommended intake levels are described and estimates of fish consumption at a food disappearance and individual level are reported. Risk and benefit factors influencing the choice to consume fish are outlined. The multiple factors influencing fish availability from global capture and aquaculture are described as are other pertinent issues of fish nutrition, production, sustainability, and consumption patterns. This review highlights some of the work that needs to be carried out to meet the demand for fish and to positively affect intake levels to meet fish intake recommendations for CVD risk reduction.

  3. Issues of Fish Consumption for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Picklo

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing fish consumption is recommended for intake of omega-3 (n-3 fatty acids and to confer benefits for the risk reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD. Most Americans are not achieving intake levels that comply with current recommendations. It is the goal of this review to provide an overview of the issues affecting this shortfall of intake. Herein we describe the relationship between fish intake and CVD risk reduction as well as the other nutritional contributions of fish to the diet. Currently recommended intake levels are described and estimates of fish consumption at a food disappearance and individual level are reported. Risk and benefit factors influencing the choice to consume fish are outlined. The multiple factors influencing fish availability from global capture and aquaculture are described as are other pertinent issues of fish nutrition, production, sustainability, and consumption patterns. This review highlights some of the work that needs to be carried out to meet the demand for fish and to positively affect intake levels to meet fish intake recommendations for CVD risk reduction.

  4. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  5. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  6. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  7. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  8. Portfolio Assessment: Production and Reduction of Complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Tina Bering; Qvortrup, Ane

    2015-01-01

    Over the last two decades, the education system has witnessed a shift from summative, product-oriented assessment towards formative, process-oriented assessment. Among the different learning and assessment initiatives introduced in the slipstream of this paradigmatic turn, the portfolio seems...... to have become one of the most popular. By re-describing the portfolio from a systems theoretical point of view, this article discusses established expectations of the portfolio in relation to transparency in learning, reflexivity and self-assessment. It shows that the majority of the literature deals...... with what-questions and that the portfolio is expected to handle a number of challenges with regard to the documentation of learning processes and achievements as well as the conditioning of learning activities. Furthermore, is becomes clear that descriptions of how the portfolio works are sparse. Based...

  9. RISK ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE FOR CIVIL AIRPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Distefano

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A practical problem in air transport is how to manage risk and safety. In recent years have been developed special technical and managerial skills to the systematic, forward looking identification and control of hazards throughout the life cycle of a project, program, or activity. Safety Management System (SMS involves identifying, evaluating, and addressing of hazards or risk. Its sole purpose is to prevent accidents. Safety risk assessment is defined as the systematic identification and evaluation of the risk posed by the complete spectrum of possible accident scenarios. Risk assessment is a tool that supports decision making and as such supports risk management. Risk management comprises the safety optimization of the system, the verification process and risk acceptance, which support airport operations. This paper proposed a quantitative methodology for the risk assessment for a civil airport, which is based on historical data of aircraft accidents, contained in the Aviation Safety Network database, from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2010.

  10. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and G

  11. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En...

  12. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  13. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spinelli, J.J.; Demers, P.A.; Le, N.D.; Friesen, M.D.; Lorenzi, M.F.; Fang, R.; Gallagher, R.P. [British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-09-15

    A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends < 0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP < 0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend < 0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend < 0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend < 0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

  15. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. Towards meaningful stakeholder comprehension of sour gas facility risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAuley, C.; Hrudey, S.E. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Public Health Sciences

    2006-01-15

    This study addressed public concerns in Alberta regarding the development of sour gas projects that are in close proximity to established populations. In particular, it focused on the reasoning of different perspectives of risk assessment between proponents of a sour gas development and the stakeholders affected. The main issues reviewed in this study were the toxicity of hydrogen sulphide and the toxic load models; the specifics of risk assessment and the risk estimation associated with pipeline failures; hazard distances associated with various end-points and set-back distances; the uncertainty that a pipeline failure will occur somewhere; a comparison of other risk scenarios where there are unknown exposure populations; risk management and risk issue management for pipeline failures; the evaluation of risk communication and validation of risk reduction measures and the issue of which risks could provide a useful basis for comparison in discussion about risk acceptability. It was noted that although zero risk is impossible, it was suggested that a better communication and understanding of the health affects of hydrogen sulphide and the toxic load concept in both public and regulatory forums would reduce uncertainty in health risk estimates associated with sour gas pipeline failures. 36 refs., 3 tabs.

  17. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  18. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides. Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decision making of European Union (EU law makers. Next to a series of scientific opinions evaluating specific adverse effects of PPPs for human health (like for instance carcinogenicity the Panel also delivered scientific opinions on general principles in the field of human health risk assessment (like reference value setting and is, in particular over the last years, very much engaged in development of methodologies to meet new challenges in regulatory risk assessments such as assessment of toxicity of pesticide metabolites and potential cumulative effects of pesticides to human health. Fate, behaviour and transformation of pesticides after their application and consequent release to the environment are a major aspect of pesticide risk assessment. The PPR Panel has achieved major accomplishments by delivering guidance and scientific opinions on degradation in soil, exposure of soil organisms and assessment of environmental risks by use of pesticides in greenhouses or grown under cover. A series of scientific opinions have been delivered also in the field of environmental risk assessment of pesticides. Scientific output covered specific issues arising in the peer review of specific active substances, revision of data requirements, development of risk assessment methodologies and the development of guidance documents. A major milestone of the PPR Panel was the development of the methodological framework for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk

  19. Risk Communication: the connection between assessment and management of changing risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprague, Teresa; Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Charrière, Marie

    2013-04-01

    Working toward effective risk mitigation strategies amidst ever-present and increasingly changing risks requires first effective communication between assessment and management spheres. This notion permeates the spectrum of what can be considered the physical changing risk inputs that feed into the risk governance processes of assessment, management and communication of risks. Close connections and overlaps between assessment and management requires communication to serve as the crux for the close collaboration necessary for encouraging preventative, long-term strategies for reducing disaster risks.1 More specifically, communication of risk information plays this connective role by informing and advising policy and decision making processes conducted by actors such as spatial planners who receive this information. In this way, those who assess the risks provide information to those who must manage these risks. When this one-directional communication pathway is reciprocated, risk managers provide information to risk assessors, enabling two-way communication amongst actors working toward risk reduction. This communication and exchange of information enables development of strategies and actions taken toward creating and improving risk mitigation measures within a given territory and community. Further, management actions taken (especially for mitigative measures) can alter the physical and social elements of the spatial context of their territory.2 This demands an adjustment of the previous risk assessment information and communication of the change in potential risk. These conceptual underpinnings are addressed and presented through explanation of an analytical framework encompassing changing risk inputs into risk governance processes. The framework elaborates the risk communication component and is supported by practical examples from stakeholder meetings and site visits in the Polish and Romania case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES.3 Specific examples

  20. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  1. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to aquat

  2. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee reco

  3. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  4. Risk reduction among HIV-seroconcordant and -discordant couples: the Zambia NOW2 intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Deborah; Kashy, Deborah; Chitalu, Ndashi; Kankasa, Chipepo; Mumbi, Mirriam; Cook, Ryan; Weiss, Stephen

    2014-08-01

    Heterosexual HIV transmission remains the leading cause of HIV incidence in adult men and women in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed whether an HIV risk-reduction intervention would be more likely to increase sexual barrier acceptability and decrease risk behavior when delivered to couples in gender concordant groups or in an individual format. This study also examined the mutual impact of couple members as a source of influence on acceptability, and assessed whether product acceptability, intimate partner violence (IPV), and/or partner communication predicted sexual barrier use. HIV seroconcordant and serodiscordant couples (n=216) were recruited in Lusaka, Zambia, and randomized to a four session gender-concordant intervention. Participants were assessed at baseline, 6, and 12 months. Willingness to use barriers (p=0.012), acceptability (pcouples in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention studies should consider both product acceptability and partner influence to achieve optimal sexual risk behavior outcomes.

  5. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  6. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  7. Production Risk Assessing Methodology (PRAM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    the price up five-fold which translates to $30.M. On the optimistic side,this same commodity market could bring the price down to one half of the price...57 PWMIW- A recognitinn that past product ion probl ems represent f ut ri , producto ; risk areas suggested an empirically developed risk structure

  8. Behavioral Risk Reduction in a Declining HIV Epidemic: Injection Drug Users in New York City, 1990-1997.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Des Jarlais, Don C.; Perlis, Theresa; Friedman, Samuel R.; Chapman, Timothy; Kwok, John; Rockwell, Russell; Paone, Denise; Milliken, Judith; Monterroso, Edgar

    2000-01-01

    Assessed trends in HIV risk behaviors among New York City injection drug users from 1990-97. Interviews at a drug detoxification program and a research storefront in a high drug-use area showed continuing risk reduction among users that indicated a declining phase in the large HIV epidemic in New York City. HIV prevention programs appeared to be…

  9. Risk Assessment and Guidelines for Risk Reduction in Mining

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Doneva, Nikolinka

    2012-01-01

    Safety and health at work of occupationally exposed workers not only formal approach through which community wishes to declare its commitment to improving the work environment and welfare of workers. Instead, safety and health of workers is a very economically-oriented category, through which you should protect the interests of workers, enterprises and economic organizations. The right on health and safety at work are universal human and labor rights. Therefore, the International Labor Org...

  10. Attitudes and practices of hemophilia care providers involved in HIV risk-reduction counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, K L; Hannan, J A; Green, T A; Wiley, S D

    1994-10-01

    Hemophilia physicians, nurses, and social workers attending a national conference were asked to complete a questionnaire assessing their attitudes and practices regarding HIV risk-reduction counseling. All of the 150 respondents reported recommending the use of condoms to their clients, but only two-thirds felt comfortable demonstrating a condom, while fewer could explain condom choices or how to make safe sex more pleasurable. Less than half questioned their clients about history of STDs, sexual practices, or level of sexual satisfaction. Those who devoted 50 percent or more time to HIV risk-reduction efforts reported being more complete in their assessment and more comfortable in their counseling role. Providers claimed it would help if they had more time (84%) and better skills (64%, especially nurses) for this practice. Because HIV prevention services in hemophilia are delivered by a team, further studies are required to determine the aggregate impact of their intervention on the client.

  11. Use of additive dentistry decreases risk by minimizing reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, K Michael

    2012-05-01

    This case required enhancement of esthetics and reduction of long-term risk of pathologic tooth wear and decay, as well as minimizing erosion caused by innate and environmental influences. The author weighed patient expectations, diet, treatment of teeth, and age to create a treatment plan that would conserve tooth structure while accomplishing the goals of the case. The patient's dentition was restored utilizing intact enamel, adhesive dentistry, and etchable ceramic materials that require less than 1 mm of occlusal reduction without a significant loss of strength. In this case, opening the vertical dimension of occlusion--which was done to increase the height of both the maxillary and mandibular arches, in keeping with the patient's esthetic desires--eliminated the need to remove excessive amounts of healthy tooth structure and facilitated treatment of the occlusal dysfunction.

  12. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  13. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drissi S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge regarding risk assessment for cloud computing and analyze existing use cases from cloud computing to identify the level of risk assessment realization in state of art systems and emerging challenges for future research.

  14. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology.

  15. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William W. Weiss

    2001-05-17

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds and lower product prices for consumers. This second annual report contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next quarter, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. During the second year of the project, data acquisition of the Brushy Canyon Formation was completed with the compiling and analyzing of well logs, geophysical data, and production information needed to characterize production potential in the Delaware Basin. A majority of this data now resides in several online databases on our servers and is in proper form to be accessed by external

  16. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  17. Bangkok to Sendai and Beyond: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Chatterjee, Ranit; Shiwaku, Koichi; Das Gupta, Rajarshi; Nakano, Genta; Shaw, Rajib

    2015-01-01

    The recently concluded World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) in Sendai, Japan and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) have set renewed priorities for disaster risk reduction (DRR) for the next 15 years. Due to Asia’s high exposure to natural hazards, the implications of the new SFDRR have major significance for the future development of the region. The 6th Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (AMCDRR), held in Bangkok in 2014, wa...

  18. Security risk assessment handbook a complete guide for performing security risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Landoll, Douglas J

    2005-01-01

    The Security Risk Assessment Handbook: A Complete Guide for Performing Security Risk Assessments provides detailed insight into precisely how to conduct an information security risk assessment. Designed for security professionals and their customers who want a more in-depth understanding of the risk assessment process, this volume contains real-world advice that promotes professional development. It also enables security consumers to better negotiate the scope and rigor of a security assessment, effectively interface with a security assessment team, deliver insightful comments on a draft repor

  19. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU...

  20. Disaster Risk Reduction through school learners’ awareness and preparedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takalani S. Rambau

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, the ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2007 initiated a campaign called Disaster Risk Reduction Begins at School to encourage the integration of disaster risk education into school curricula in countries vulnerable to disasters. A study was initiated to determine how education, in particular curriculum development and teaching, contributes to South African learners’ hazard awareness and disaster preparedness. Mixed method research (consisting of questionnaires, interviews and document reviews was done to collect data. 150 educators from Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and the Eastern Cape completed questionnaires. Five curriculum coordinators, three disaster specialists and two disaster lecturers were interviewed to record their perspectives. The first finding of the study was that the majority of educators, disaster specialists and curriculum coordinators identified floods, fire, droughts, epidemics, road accidents and storms as the most prevalent disasters in the country. The second finding from the literature and empirical data collection revealed that South African communities, particularly people residing in informal settlements and other poor areas, are more vulnerable to disasters than their counterparts in more affluent areas. The third finding of the study was that teaching learners about hazards and disasters is vital and must be expanded.

  1. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  2. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  3. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of factor

  4. Assessment and management of risk to wildlife from cadmium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burger, Joanna [Division of Life Sciences, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey, 08854-8082 (United States)], E-mail: burger@biology.rutgers.edu

    2008-01-15

    Cadmium, a nonessential heavy metal that comes from natural and anthropogenic sources, is a teratogen, carcinogen, and a possible mutagen. Assessment of potential risk from cadmium requires understanding environmental exposure, mainly from ingestion, although there is some local exposure through inhalation. Chronic exposure is more problematic than acute exposure for wildlife. There is evidence for bioaccumulation, particularly in freshwater organisms, but evidence for biomagnification up the food chain is inconsistent; in some bird studies, cadmium levels were higher in species that are higher on the food chain than those that are lower. Some freshwater and marine invertebrates are more adversely affected by cadmium exposure than are birds and mammals. There is very little experimental laboratory research on the effects of cadmium in amphibians, birds and reptiles, and almost no data from studies of wildlife in nature. Managing the risk from cadmium to wildlife involves assessment (including ecological risk assessment), biomonitoring, setting benchmarks of effects, regulations and enforcement, and source reduction.

  5. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  6. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  7. Periodontal risk assessment, diagnosis and treatment planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pihlstrom, B L

    2001-01-01

    The prevention and treatment of the periodontal diseases is based on accurate diagnosis, reduction or elimination of causative agents, risk management and correction of the harmful effects of disease. Prominent and confirmed risk factors or risk predictors for periodontitis in adults include smoking, diabetes, race, P. gingivalis, P. intermedia, low education, infrequent dental attendance and genetic influences. Several other specific periodontal bacteria, herpesviruses, increased age, male, sex, depression, race, traumatic occlusion and female osteoporosis in the presence of heavy dental calculus have been shown to be associated with loss of periodontal support and can be considered to be risk indicators of periodontitis. The presence of furcation involvement, tooth mobility, and a parafunctional habit without the use of a biteguard are associated with a poorer periodontal prognosis following periodontal therapy. An accurate diagnosis can only be made by a thorough evaluation of data that have been systematically collected by: 1) patient interview, 2) medical consultation as indicated, 3) clinical periodontal examination, 4) radiographic examination, and 5) laboratory tests as needed. Clinical signs of periodontal disease such as pocket depth, loss of clinical attachment and bone loss are cumulative measures of past disease. They do not provide the dentist with a current assessment of disease activity. In an attempt to improve the ability to predict future disease progression, several types of diagnostic tests have been studied, including host inflammatory products and mediators, enzymes, tissue breakdown products and subgingival temperature. In general, the usefulness of these tests for predicting future disease activity remains to be established in terms of sensitivity, specificity and predictive value. Although microbiological analysis of subgingival plaque is not necessary to diagnose and treat most patients with periodontitis, it is helpful when treating

  8. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James

    2012-06-21

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

  9. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  10. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to secure that the methodology is adequate. As new knowledge surfaces the risk assessment procedures develops. The present report is a contribution to the development of safety factors used to account for the uncertainty when · extrapolating from the results of test with a single species in the laboratory...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  11. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  12. Modelling Drivers' Behaviour as a Crash Risk Reduction Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyed Mohammad Sadat Hoseini

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The evermore widespread use of microscopic traffic simulationin the analysis of road systems has refocused attention onsub models, including car-following and lane-changing models.In this research a microscopic model is developed whichcombines car-following and lane-changing models and describesdriver behaviour as a crash risk reduction process ofdrivers. This model has been simulated by a cellular automatasimulator and compared with the real data. It has been shownthat there is no reason to consider the model invalid for drivers'behaviour in the basic segments of freeways in Iran, duringnot-congested conditions. Considering that uncertainty of positionof vehicles is caused by their acceleration or deceleration, aprobability function is calibrated for calculating the presenceprobability of vehicles in their feasible cells. Multiplying thepresence probability and impact of crash, crash risk of cells iscalculated. As an application of the model, it has been shownthat when difference between vehicles brake deceleration increases,the total crash risk increases.

  13. Relationship between bone mineral density changes and fracture risk reduction in patients treated with strontium ranelate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruyere, Olivier; Roux, Christian; Detilleux, Johann;

    2007-01-01

    Of Peripheral OSteoporosis study were evaluated. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome measures included BMD at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, and total proximal femur assessed at baseline and after a follow-up of 1 and 3 yr; semiquantitative visual assessment of vertebral fractures; and nonvertebral fractures based...... on written documentation. RESULTS: After 3 yr of strontium ranelate treatment, each percentage point increase in femoral neck and total proximal femur BMD was associated with a 3% (95% adjusted confidence interval, 1-5%) and 2% (1-4%) reduction in risk of a new vertebral fracture, respectively. The 3-yr...

  14. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    coatings Vinyl/asbestos floor tile Automatic transmission components Clutch facings Disc brake pads Drum brake linings Brake blocks Commercial and...1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS , AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...Sampling, Analysis , and Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

  15. UAV Swarm Operational Risk Assessment system

    OpenAIRE

    Marfo, Sariyu; Ehler, Shane; Fields, Ryan; Negron, Jamaries Benitez; Skopak, Shane; Junek, John; Zarzaca, Justin; Perrotta, Robert; Team CQ Alpha; Cohort 311-141A

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This paper examines the need for a UAV Swarm Risk Assessment Tool and how it can assist the Navy’s decision makers in assessing risk of UAV swarm threats in littoral environments, near potentially hostile countries, based on the latest intelligence. Human-centered design principles help determine the needs of experienced battle commanders. These needs form the basis of requirements and functional analysis. The system design concept con...

  16. Latest developments in foodborne pathogen risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Membré, Jeanne Marie; Guillou, Sandrine

    2016-01-01

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) is a structured process for determining the public health risk associated with foodborne pathogens. In recent years, there has been a strong tendency in providing food safety decisions based upon quantitative assessment. Especially, variability and uncertainty inherent to biological processes have been integrated in food safety management through the use of powerful statistical and probabilistic techniques. Besides, recent developments in omic technologie...

  17. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammen, van Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  18. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  19. Hydrological modelling in a drinking water catchment area as a means of evaluating pathogen risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergion, Viktor; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Åström, Johan; Lindhe, Andreas; Sörén, Kaisa; Rosén, Lars

    2017-01-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases are of great concern to drinking water producers and can give rise to substantial costs to the society. The World Health Organisation promotes an approach where the emphasis is on mitigating risks close to the contamination source. In order to handle microbial risks efficiently, there is a need for systematic risk management. In this paper we present a framework for microbial risk management of drinking water systems. The framework incorporates cost-benefit analysis as a decision support method. The hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was set up for the Stäket catchment area in Sweden, was used to simulate the effects of four different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. The modelling results showed that the two mitigation measures that resulted in a significant (p total removal of 2 Log10 units) did not achieve any significant reduction of E. coli or Cryptosporidium spp. concentrations. The SWAT model was useful when characterising the effect of different mitigation measures on microbial concentrations. Hydrological modelling implemented within an appropriate risk management framework is a key decision support element as it identifies the most efficient alternative for microbial risk reduction.

  20. Biodiversity Risk Assessment of Protected Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalija Rudzkienė

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems are characterised by the most abundant biodiversity because there are the best conditions for existence of various species of plants, animals and various other organisms there. Generally, in the last decades a lot of attention is given to biodiversity, and scientific research draws attention to an increasing loss of biodiversity. Biodiversity measurements are needed in order to understand biodiversity changes and to control them. Measurements and assessments of biodiversity of ecosystems reveal the condition of an ecosystem of a certain territory as well as create the basis for a strategy of preserving separate species. A lot of indices for assessing biodiversity risk have been created in the last decades. Integrated indices are composed when joining indices, and one of them is the integrated biodiversity risk assessment index NABRAI (National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. This article analyses the principles of creating biodiversity risk indices, possible alternatives of components (variables of biodiversity resources, impact and response indices, and their suitability at the national level. Assessment and ranking methodology, adapted for assessment of biodiversity risk of local protected territories and for ranking of territories, is presented. Report data of directorates of Lithuanian national and regional parks are used for the analysis, as well as the data served as a basis to calculate integrated biodiversity risk indices of several protected territories of Lithuania.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.65.3.4478

  1. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  2. FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT IN SLOVAK REPUBLIC

    OpenAIRE

    Martina ZELENAKOVA

    2011-01-01

    Recent history has shown that extreme hydrological events as flood and droughts can create additional stress on water supplies essential for human and ecosystem health. Floods have caused immense economic and social losses, mainly as a result of unplanned urbanization, uncontrolled population density and not strictly inspected construction by authorities. The purpose of Directive 2007/60/EC is to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks, aiming at the reduction o...

  3. Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarang Kim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

  4. Scientific Opinion on the risk of Dickeya dianthicola for the EU territory with identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The EFSA Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Dickeya dianthicola for the EU territory under the scenario of current EU plant health legislation and identified and evaluated risk reduction options. The probability of entry was considered low for carnation cuttings and mother plants because association of D. dianthicola with carnation is rare nowadays. Probability of entry was considered higher for other host plants for planting that are not subject to statutory control. However, this pathogen already occurs in these crops in the EU, and its transfer from them to carnation is unlikely. The probability of establishment is high in the open field but low in protected crops. The probability of spread is moderate in the open field but low in protected crops. Under current phytosanitary measures, but with voluntary certification and sanitation practices in place, consequences for carnation are minimal since no carnation crop losses have been reported in the last 25 years. The risk reduction options with best effectiveness and feasibility are those addressing the sanitary status of the propagation material. However, although the prevalence of D. dianthicola on carnation is low at present, current EU measures appear to have some potential weaknesses, particularly because of lack of details on the testing of mother plants. If the current regulation were to be removed, no major consequences or changes in the potential impact of D. dianthicola are expected provided the current general hygiene practices applied in the European voluntary certification schemes are maintained. If, on the other hand, the current legislation were removed and a voluntary certification scheme was not maintained, contamination of carnation crops by D. dianthicola is expected, with ensuing detrimental effects. Additional risk reduction options to reduce the probability of entry, establishment, spread and impact were identified. Uncertainties on the

  5. National Aerospace Plane Integrated Fuselage/Cryotank Risk Reduction program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayton, K. E.

    1993-06-01

    The principal objectives and results of the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) Integrated Risk Reduction program are briefly reviewed. The program demonstrated the feasibility of manufacturing lightweight advanced composite materials for single-stage-to-orbit hypersonic flight vehicle applications. A series of combined load simulation tests (thermal, mechanical, and cryogenic) demonstrated proof of concept performance for an all unlined composite cryogenic fuel tank with flat end bulkheads and a high-temperature thin-shell advanced composite fuselage. Temperatures of the fuselage were as high as 1300 F, with 100 percent bending and shear loads applied to the tank while filled with 850 gallons of cryogenic fluid hydrogen (-425 F). Leak rates measured on and around the cryotank shell and bulkheads were well below acceptable levels.

  6. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

    1997-06-25

    The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

  7. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  8. Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

  9. Trichloroethylene risk assessment: relevance of interindividual differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, N.P.E.; Bladeren, P.J. van

    2001-01-01

    Interindividual variability in the disposition and effects of xenobiotics in humans and related inter-species differences should play a major role in human risk assessment. In particular for low-dose exposures to potentially carcinogenic compounds, novel tools and concepts are necessary to assess ri

  10. NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cochrane Thomas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

  11. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  12. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  13. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  14. Global recycling services for short and long term risk reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arslan, M.; Grygiel, J.M.; Drevon, C.; Lelievre, F.; Lesage, M.; Vincent, O. [AREVA, 33 rue Lafayette, F-75009 Paris (France)

    2013-07-01

    New schemes are being developed by AREVA in order to provide global solutions for safe and non-proliferating management of used fuels, thereby significantly contributing to overall risks reduction and sustainable nuclear development. Utilities are thereby provided with a service through which they will be able to send their used fuels and only get returned vitrified and compacted waste, the only waste remaining after reprocessing. This waste is stable, standard and has demonstrated capability for very long term interim storage. They are provided as well with associated facilities and all necessary services for storage in a demonstrated safely manner. Recycled fuels, in particular MOX, would be used either in existing LWRs or in a very limited number of full MOX reactors (like the EPR reactor), located in selected countries, that will recycle MOX so as to downgrade the isotopic quality of the Pu inventories in a significant manner. Reprocessed uranium also can be recycled. These schemes, on top of offering demonstrated operational advantages and a responsible approach, result into optimized economics for all shareholders of the scheme, as part of reactor financing (under Opex or Capex form) will be secured thanks to the value of the recycled flows. It also increases fuel cost predictability as recycled fuel is not subject to market fluctuations as much and allows, in a limited span of time, for clear risk mitigation. (authors)

  15. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  16. Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

    2016-01-01

    foreland into the dike design does not automatically mean that nature values and flood protection are well integrated. Flood protection imposes rather different requirements on the extent and features of marshes than nature conservation and development. Wave damping is most effective with a high and stable marsh, while nature thrives with dynamic processes and differences in elevation. Therefore, only a design that allows natural marsh dynamics and includes different marsh zones could combine nature values with flood protection. In practice, this means a dike design with an uncertain foreland, that offers space for natural processes. The uncertainty in foreland development reduces the possible flood risk reduction. In our paper we describe the critical points of interest concerning risk reduction in this system.

  17. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

    2005-03-01

    Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

  18. Radon programme in the Netherlands: risk assessment and risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, D.W.G. [Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, The Hague (Netherlands). Directorate for Chemicals, External Safety and Radiation Protection

    1994-12-31

    The Dutch policy on the control of the risk of radon is predominantly based on the results of the Radon Research Programme. Important topics of the Radon Research Programme are described. Furthermore, the Dutch policy on indoor radiation is reviewed in view of the national environmental policy and radiation risk management. The policy on the control of radon in domestic and other buildings is related to other policies, both national and international, e.g. economic, environmental and housing policy. A short review of these relations in the Netherlands is given. In brief a description will be given of the attention paid by the government to the communication strategies used in order to enforce, for instance, remedial actions and the implementation of risk reduction technology. (author).

  19. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waigmann E

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authorisation of GMOs, and in the development of corresponding guidelines for the applicants. The EFSA GMO Panel has elaborated comprehensive guidance documents on GM plants, GM microorganisms and GM animals, as well as on specific aspects of risk assessment such as the selection of comparators. EFSA also provides special scientific advice upon request of the European Commission; examples are post-market environmental monitoring of GMOs, and consideration of potential risks of new plant breeding techniques. The GMO Panel regularly reviews its guidance documents in the light of experience gained with the evaluation of applications, technological progress in breeding technologies and scientific developments in the diverse areas of risk assessment.

  20. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... standardised scientific methods to characterise the probability and magnitude of harm caused by a hazard, preferably in a quantitative manner. In turn, HIA is a process to assess future impacts of recent proposals and is dominated by qualitative evaluation. It makes a projection for a future scenario rather...

  1. Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Alengordovich Korobitsyn

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer

  2. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  3. Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Shan Hsu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1 the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2 the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3 consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

  4. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  5. Clinical practice of risk assessment of sexual violence

    OpenAIRE

    Judge, Joseph Gerard

    2012-01-01

    Background: Risk assessment of sexual violence involves evidence based evaluation of the risks posed by sexual offenders. It informs risk management; the provision of treatment that reduces the risk of future sexual violence. Previous research has focused on assessment of the predictive accuracy of different risk assessment tools, as well as the identification of risk factors that are associated with recidivism. In contrast, the clinical practice of risk assessment is a research a...

  6. Risk factors for and assessment of constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Sherree; Hungerford, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Constipation commonly occurs in older people, particularly in hospital or residential care settings, and leads to decreased quality of life and increased healthcare costs. Despite its frequency, however, nurses often overlook the condition. One possible reason for this may be the lack of appropriate tools or scales for nurses to assess risk factors for developing constipation. This article identifies, from the academic literature, 14 risk factors for developing constipation in older people. These factors are then considered in light of four common constipation assessment charts. The article concludes by arguing the need for more comprehensive assessment tools to, firstly, identify risk factors; and, secondly, support the implementation of appropriate preventative strategies that will enable better health outcomes for older people.

  7. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  8. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  9. Environmental risk assessment for start-up of a new consolidated maintenance facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heubach, J.G.; Wise, J.A.

    1992-10-01

    This paper summarizes a case study of a risk assessment for a consolidated maintenance facility (CMF). An interdisciplinary team was formed to identify and evaluate showstopper'' risks which could delay or prevent ontime, safe, and economical operation of a CMF and to recommend ways to mitigate the risks. The risk assessment was constrained by time, information, incomplete plans and facilities, and a concomitant major transition in manufacturing process, organization, and technology. Working within these constraints, the team integrated convergent findings into estimates of high, medium, and low risks based on the subjective likelihood of occurrence and predicted consequences of potential hazard events. The team also made risk-reduction recommendations for facility detail design and production start-up. The findings and recommendations reported in this study focus on risks related to environmental design and workstation ergonomics. Findings from the risk assessment effort should aid other constrained risk assessments and applied research on similar facilities.

  10. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences...

  11. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  12. Bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beronius, Anna; Hanberg, Annika; Zilliacus, Johanna; Rudén, Christina

    2014-12-01

    Regulatory risk assessment is traditionally based primarily on toxicity studies conducted according to standardized and internationally validated test guidelines. However, health risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is argued to rely on the efficient integration of findings from academic research. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current developments to facilitate the use of academic research in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals and how certain aspects of study design and reporting are particularly important for the risk assessment process. By bridging the gap between academic research and regulatory health risk assessment of EDCs, scientific uncertainty in risk assessment conclusions can be reduced, allowing for better targeted policy decisions for chemical risk reduction.

  13. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  14. Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

    2003-10-01

    Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

  15. Benefit-Risk Assessment in Drug Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarac, Sinan

    This thesis covers the development, testing and use of an eight-step structured method for data-driven benefit-risk assessment. The aim of this thesis was to create a tailored method for the assessment of clinical data. The focus has been on three major aspects: (i) A simple preliminary method....... In total, four pilot studies and internal workshops were conducted. The method was therefore developed in an iterative fashion. The method involves eight successive steps: 1) establishment of the decision context, 2) identification of benefit and risk criteria, 3) weighting, 4) scoring, 5) evaluation...... biases and feedback distort the assessment, and to make it possible for the industrial partner and the regulatory agency to compare the results of their evaluation on a point-by-point basis. The qualitative framework ensures a structured approach to the assessment and a transparent communication...

  16. Effects of exercise training and Mediterranean diet on vascular risk reduction in post-menopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhatib, Ahmad; Klonizakis, Markos

    2014-01-01

    This study tested the potential risk-reduction benefits of Mediterranean Diet (MD) and regular exercise training on microvascular activity and cardiorespiratory capacity in postmenopausal women. Fifteen sedentary postmenopausal participants (age = 54.6 ± 3.6) were randomised into either exercise training or exercise combined with following MD for eight-weeks, and were assessed for their cardiorespiratory capacity, and upper- and lower-limb endothelial cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC) test using Laser Doppler Fluximetry (LDF), coupled with measuring endothelium-dependent Acetylcholine Chloride (Ach) and -dependent Sodium Nitropurruside (SNP) vasodilators. Exercise training improved cardiorespiratory capacity as indicated by ventilatory threshold (11.5 ± 2.1 vs. 14.0 ± 3.0 ml·kg-1·min-1, p exercise with MD showed a stronger improvement in Ach (p = 0.02, d = 0.36) of the lower limb, than in exercise alone group. The results suggest that regular moderate exercise improves microcirculatory vascular function and increases exercise tolerance, both are responsible for reducing cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women. However, combining MD with exercise suggests additional microvascular vasodialiatory improvement, suggesting an effective strategy for further cardiovascular risk-reduction in this high-risk group.

  17. A risk-reduction nutrition course for adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckner, L S; Kohn, H; Rockwell, S K

    1990-02-01

    This article details the development, delivery, and evaluation of a six-session nutrition course entitled "Eating Today for a Healthier Tomorrow." The course addressed nutrition practices associated with the reduction of risk for coronary heart disease, cancer, osteoporosis, and obesity. Teaching teams, consisting of an extension agent and a registered dietitian, were used in course delivery. A wide variety of printed and audiovisual teaching aids helped participants learn through discussion, goal setting, games, and food tasting. Evaluation components of the course included demographic and pre- and post-course food frequency information as well as an overall evaluation by each participant. Post-course evaluation data were collected at a reunion session held 2 months after course completion. One hundred forty-two of 195 participants (73%) completed the course and the evaluation. Three-fourths of the participants had a family history of at least one of the life-style diseases addressed by the course. The food frequency results indicated that participants made some significant changes in their food practices. They decreased the number of times they selected high-fat cheese, regular red meats, foods from the saturated fatty acid group, desserts, sodium-rich products, and tea/coffee (p less than .05), and they increased selection of low-fat dairy products (p less than .05). Further study is recommended to determine whether individuals maintain the dietary changes and how those changes affect others in the person's immediate environment.

  18. Time-to-Compromise Model for Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2005-09-01

    We propose a new model for estimating the time to compromise a system component that is visible to an attacker. The model provides an estimate of the expected value of the time-to-compromise as a function of known and visible vulnerabilities, and attacker skill level. The time-to-compromise random process model is a composite of three subprocesses associated with attacker actions aimed at the exploitation of vulnerabilities. In a case study, the model was used to aid in a risk reduction estimate between a baseline Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the baseline system enhanced through a specific set of control system security remedial actions. For our case study, the total number of system vulnerabilities was reduced by 86% but the dominant attack path was through a component where the number of vulnerabilities was reduced by only 42% and the time-to-compromise of that component was increased by only 13% to 30% depending on attacker skill level.

  19. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  20. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  1. Cyber security risk assessment for SCADA and DCS networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralston, P A S; Graham, J H; Hieb, J L

    2007-10-01

    The growing dependence of critical infrastructures and industrial automation on interconnected physical and cyber-based control systems has resulted in a growing and previously unforeseen cyber security threat to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and distributed control systems (DCSs). It is critical that engineers and managers understand these issues and know how to locate the information they need. This paper provides a broad overview of cyber security and risk assessment for SCADA and DCS, introduces the main industry organizations and government groups working in this area, and gives a comprehensive review of the literature to date. Major concepts related to the risk assessment methods are introduced with references cited for more detail. Included are risk assessment methods such as HHM, IIM, and RFRM which have been applied successfully to SCADA systems with many interdependencies and have highlighted the need for quantifiable metrics. Presented in broad terms is probability risk analysis (PRA) which includes methods such as FTA, ETA, and FEMA. The paper concludes with a general discussion of two recent methods (one based on compromise graphs and one on augmented vulnerability trees) that quantitatively determine the probability of an attack, the impact of the attack, and the reduction in risk associated with a particular countermeasure.

  2. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  3. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  4. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  5. Multi-hazard risk assessment of the Republic of Mauritius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Galli, Alberto; Amadio, Mattia; Teatini, Chiara

    2013-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a small island developing state (SIDS), part of the Mascarene Islands in West Indian Ocean, comprised by Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St. Brandon islands and several islets. ROM is exposed to many natural hazards notably cyclones, tsunamis, torrential precipitation, landslides, and droughts; and highly vulnerable sea level rise (SLR) driven by human induced climate change. The multihazard risk assessment presented in this paper is aimed at identifying the areas prone to flood, inundation and landslide hazard, and inform the development of strategy for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Climate risk analysis - a central component of the analysis - is one of the first comprehensive climate modelling studies conducted for the country. Climate change may lift the temperature by 1-2 degree Celsius by 2060-2070, and increase sizably the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. According to the IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4), the expected Sea Level Rise (SLR) ranges between 16 and 49 cm. Individually or in combination, the inland flood, coastal inundation and landslide hazards affect large proportion of the country. Sea level rise and the changes in precipitation regimes will amplified existing vulnerabilities and create new ones. The paper outlines an Action plan for Disaster Risk Reduction that takes into account the likely effects of climate change. The Action Plan calls on the government to establish a National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction as recommended by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015. It consists of nine recommendations which, if put in practice, will significantly reduce the annual damage to natural hazard and produce additional (ancillary) benefits in economic, social and environmental terms.

  6. New risk assessment tools in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper an introduction to and description of the risk assessment tools that are freely available for companies in The Netherlands is given. It is explained in what way the tools can and should be used and how the level I checklist for physical load and the level II instruments are related. Th

  7. Incorporating Agency Into Climate Change Risk Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R.N. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 (Australia)

    2004-11-01

    Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework.

  8. Risk assessment as an argumentation game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prakken, Henry; Ionita, Dan; Wieringa, Roel; Leite, J.; Son, T.C.; Torrini, P.; Van Der Torre, L.; Woltran, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the idea that IT security risk assessment can be formalized as an argumentation game in which assessors argue about how the system can be attacked by a threat agent and defended by the assessors. A system architecture plus assumptions about the environment is specified as an ASPI

  9. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available tec

  10. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  11. Methodology for qualitative urban flooding risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitão, João P; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Simões, Nuno E; Martins, André

    2013-01-01

    Pluvial or surface flooding can cause significant damage and disruption as it often affects highly urbanised areas. Therefore it is essential to accurately identify consequences and assess the risks associated with such phenomena. The aim of this study is to present the results and investigate the applicability of a qualitative flood risk assessment methodology in urban areas. This methodology benefits from recent developments in urban flood modelling, such as the dual-drainage modelling concept, namely one-dimensional automatic overland flow network delineation tools (e.g. AOFD) and 1D/1D models incorporating both surface and sewer drainage systems. To assess flood risk, the consequences can be estimated using hydraulic model results, such as water velocities and water depth results; the likelihood was estimated based on the return period of historical rainfall events. To test the methodology two rainfall events with return periods of 350 and 2 years observed in Alcântara (Lisbon, Portugal) were used and three consequence dimensions were considered: affected public transportation services, affected properties and pedestrian safety. The most affected areas in terms of flooding were easily identified; the presented methodology was shown to be easy to implement and effective to assess flooding risk in urban areas, despite the common difficulties in obtaining data.

  12. Automating defence generation for risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gadyatskaya, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Efficient risk assessment requires automation of its most tedious tasks: identification of vulnerabilities, attacks that can exploit these vulnerabilities, and countermeasures that can mitigate the attacks. E.g., the attack tree generation by policy invalidation approach looks at systematic automati

  13. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  14. Housing conditions in calves welfare risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relić Renata R.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows results of calf welfare risk assessment at intensive breeding farms. Assessment has been conducted on the basis of housing conditions which can have negative influence on welfare of cattle, especially in calf category considering their needs. According to analysis results very good housing conditions were confirmed in open shed rearing stall (C and closed type rearing stall without feeding yard (A, whilst in closed rearing stall with feeding yard (B housing conditions were estimated as acceptable. Based on collected data about housing conditions, we have estimated that the least risk for calf welfare is at C farm, slightly higher at A farm and the highest at B farm. Data about housing conditions and analysis of potential welfare risk factors show possible causes for already present health and other problems with animals, which also can reappear in future. However for that reason, applying described methods can increase rearing conditions and increase production at cattle farms.

  15. Risk assessment on occupational noise hazard and noise reduction measures in a textile mill%纺织企业噪声职业危害风险评价及降噪措施

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王淑云; 匡雅; 曾向璟; 杨蓉; 郑平卫

    2014-01-01

    Noise is one of the main occupational hazards in textile mills .The noise of production workshop in the textile enterprise will not only affect the textile production efficiency , the ability to work and safety of workers , but also can cause harm to the health of textile workers , and even lead to occupational diseases .The research object in this paper is a textile mill in south China , through investigation and measurement of noise in its production work -shop, and by using two kinds of evaluation methods : Workplace occupational hazards and Occupational exposure to risk assessment, the occupational hazards of each production working procedure in this enterprise were assessed , then the conclusion of occupational hazards was obtained , and from four aspects such as the sound source , noise transmission way, individual protection, and management system, the noise control measures were put forward , in order to better strengthen the prevention and control , and reduce the noise occupational hazard .%噪声是纺织业的主要职业危害之一。纺织企业生产车间的噪声不仅会影响到纺织生产的效率、工人的工作能力及安全,还会对纺织工人的健康造成危害,甚至导致职业病。以南方某纺织企业为研究对象,对其生产车间的噪声进行了调查测量,并采用职业病作业危害、职业接触风险评估二种评价方法,对该企业各生产工序的噪声职业危害进行风险评价,得出评价结论,从声源、声传播途径、个体防护及管理制度四个方面提出了降噪措施,以便更好地加强防治,预防减少噪声职业危害。

  16. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  17. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  18. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  19. The Healthy Teen Girls project: comparison of health education and STD risk reduction intervention for incarcerated adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Angela A; Robertson, Angela R; St Lawrence, Janet; Morse, David T; Baird-Thomas, Connie; Liew, Hui; Gresham, Kathleen

    2011-06-01

    Adolescent girls incarcerated in a state reformatory (N = 246) were recruited and assigned to an 18-session health education program or a time-equivalent HIV prevention program. Cohorts were assigned to conditions using a randomized block design separated by a washout period to reduce contamination. Post intervention, girls in the HIV risk reduction program demonstrated the acquisition of risk-reduction behavioral skills and improved condom application skill. At a follow-up assessment approximately 9 months after release from the correctional facility, girls in both conditions reported fewer unprotected sexual intercourse occasions and less sex while under the influence of alcohol or other drugs.

  20. Development of a Pediatric Fall Risk And Injury Reduction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramlich, Debra L; Dende, Denise

    2016-01-01

    Fall prevention programs that include reliable, valid, and clinically tested screening tools have demonstrated more positive effects for adult and geriatric populations than those not including such assessment. In contrast, because falling is a natural part of growth and development for pediatric patients, progression toward effective prevention programs for this population has proven to be a challenge; a significant impediment is the lack of definition regarding what constitutes a reportable fall. This project explored pediatric health care providers' perceptions of patient falls in order to define a reportable pediatric fall and inform development of a prevention program. A concept analysis of defining attributes, antecedents, and consequences of pediatric falls from literature formed the basis for a set of questions; a convenience sample of 28 pediatric health care providers in an acute care hospital in New England participated in six moderated focus groups. Constant comparison method was used to code the qualitative data and develop themes. Participants unanimously agreed on several points; as expected, their years of experience in pediatric practice provided valuable insight. Three major themes emerged: patient characteristics, caregiver characteristics, and environmental characteristics. Based on factors identified by staff, a screening tool was adopted and integrated into the electronic medical record. Staff were actively engaged in developing definitions, selecting tools, and identifying next steps toward a comprehensive fall reduction program for their patients. As a result, they have embraced changes and advocated successfully for endorsement by the organization.

  1. Guidelines for contingency planning NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) ADP security risk reduction decision studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, F. G.

    1984-01-01

    Guidance is presented to NASA Computer Security Officials for determining the acceptability or unacceptability of ADP security risks based on the technical, operational and economic feasibility of potential safeguards. The risk management process is reviewed as a specialized application of the systems approach to problem solving and information systems analysis and design. Reporting the results of the risk reduction analysis to management is considered. Report formats for the risk reduction study are provided.

  2. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R. [Laboratorio de Toxicologia Experimental, Santa Fe (Argentina)

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  3. Assessment of Hazardous Chemicals Risk in Fur Industry in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birutė Vaitelytė

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the research on the possibilities of hazardous chemicals replacement with less hazardous substances. This issue has become of special importance to industrial companies after the adoption of the REACH Regulation. The article examines fur industry and traditional chemicals used in it, namely, sodium dichromate, formaldehyde, and naphthalene. Because of their properties these chemicals are pretending to be included in the REACH Regulation lists of the authorised chemicals. The risks of quasi-materials to the workplaces and the environment have been studied. This research has also looked for the alternatives to hazardous chemicals and has conducted their risk assessment. The analyzed chemicals have been compared with their alternatives with a view of disclosing specific risk reduction.

  4. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... on three fragrance ingredients in order to provide a practical assessment of the predictive value of the QRA approach. It is important to have data to assess that the methodology provides a robust approach for primary prevention of contact sensitization induction for fragrance ingredients identified...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  5. Risk Assessment for Natural-Hazard Impact on Hazardous Chemical Installations: Workshop Outcome Report

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The impact of natural hazards on hazardous installations can cause major chemical accidents. This so-called “Natech” risk is increasing due to industrialisation and climate change. Capacity building in EU Member States, Candidate Countries and EU Neighbourhood Countries on Natech risk required for Natech risk reduction. This report summarises the findings of a training workshop on risk assessment for natural-hazard impact on hazardous chemical installations which the JRC organised in the ...

  6. 78 FR 27939 - Draft Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-13

    ... Draft Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: Notice of... Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens.'' This draft quantitative risk assessment (QRA... conditions, such as Listeria (L.) monocytogenes contamination of certain ready-to-eat (RTE) foods,...

  7. A toolbox for rockfall Quantitative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agliardi, F.; Mavrouli, O.; Schubert, M.; Corominas, J.; Crosta, G. B.; Faber, M. H.; Frattini, P.; Narasimhan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Rockfall Quantitative Risk Analysis for mitigation design and implementation requires evaluating the probability of rockfall events, the probability and intensity of impacts on structures (elements at risk and countermeasures), their vulnerability, and the related expected costs for different scenarios. A sound theoretical framework has been developed during the last years both for spatially-distributed and local (i.e. single element at risk) analyses. Nevertheless, the practical application of existing methodologies remains challenging, due to difficulties in the collection of required data and to the lack of simple, dedicated analysis tools. In order to fill this gap, specific tools have been developed in the form of Excel spreadsheets, in the framework of Safeland EU project. These tools can be used by stakeholders, practitioners and other interested parties for the quantitative calculation of rock fall risk through its key components (probabilities, vulnerability, loss), using combinations of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Three tools have been developed, namely: QuRAR (by UNIMIB), VulBlock (by UPC), and RiskNow-Falling Rocks (by ETH Zurich). QuRAR implements a spatially distributed, quantitative assessment methodology of rockfall risk for individual buildings or structures in a multi-building context (urban area). Risk is calculated in terms of expected annual cost, through the evaluation of rockfall event probability, propagation and impact probability (by 3D numerical modelling of rockfall trajectories), and empirical vulnerability for different risk protection scenarios. Vulblock allows a detailed, analytical calculation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete frame buildings to rockfalls and related fragility curves, both as functions of block velocity and the size. The calculated vulnerability can be integrated in other methodologies/procedures based on the risk equation, by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock

  8. Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Overton, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.

  9. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  10. [Accidental intravenous injection of potassium chloride: analysis of contributing factors and barriers to risk reduction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonvin, A; Vantard, N; Charpiat, B; Pral, N; Leboucher, G; Philip-Girard, F; Viale, J-P

    2009-05-01

    Errors linked to injectable potassium chloride (KCl) have been the cause of deaths which have occurred for many years. Following an accidental direct intravenous injection of KCl of no clinical consequence for the patient, we have analyzed the contributive factors, established an action plan to prevent this risk and finally assessed its impact. Among the causes leading to medication errors, we have identified those linked to the handling of the drugs by nurses, the team, the work conditions, the organization, the institutional context and finally to the drug itself. The risk reduction procedure involved a withdrawal of injectable KCI ampoules from wards, possible in 52% of the care units, a reorganization of storage for the others. The subsequent monitoring of floorstocks revealed that these measures were insufficient and that the risks prevailed due to the presence of KCI ampoules in drawers assigned to other ionic solutions. A study carried out among the medical and nursing personnel revealed that 61.2% of the doctors thought that the risk existed in their ward and 68% of the nurses considered themselves to be exposed to the risk of a medication error. The drug supply chain of our institution, as in numerous others, is not safe. Hospitals are not yet organized adequately to prevent the occurrence of such an error. The comparison with foreign organizations of drug dispensation allows us to think that the improvement and professionalization of the drug supply chain will both be assets in the prevention of such medication errors.

  11. Hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calley, M.B.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

    1994-09-19

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG&G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. This hazards assessment describes the WERF, the area surrounding WERF, associated buildings and structures at WERF, and the processes performed at WERF. All radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials stored, used, or produced at WERF were identified and screened. Even though the screening process indicated that the hazardous materials could be screened from further analysis because the inventory of radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials were below the screening thresholds specified by DOE and DOE-ID guidance for DOE Order 5500.3A, the nonradiological hazardous materials were analyzed further because it was felt that the nonradiological hazardous material screening thresholds were too high.

  12. Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM: Groundwater Risk Assessment Model for Wellfield Protection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nara Somaratne

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A groundwater risk assessment was carried out for 30 potable water supply systems under a framework of protecting drinking water quality across South Australia. A semi-quantitative Groundwater Risk Assessment Model (GRAM was developed based on a “multi-barrier” approach using likelihood of release, contaminant pathway and consequence equation. Groundwater vulnerability and well integrity have been incorporated to the pathway component of the risk equation. The land use of the study basins varies from protected water reserves to heavily stocked grazing lands. Based on the risk assessment, 15 systems were considered as low risk, four as medium and 11 systems as at high risk. The GRAM risk levels were comparable with indicator bacteria—total coliform—detection. Most high risk systems were the result of poor well construction and casing corrosion rather than the land use. We carried out risk management actions, including changes to well designs and well operational practices, design to increase time of residence and setting the production zone below identified low permeable zones to provide additional barriers to contaminants. The highlight of the risk management element is the well integrity testing using down hole geophysical methods and camera views of the casing condition.

  13. Clinical utility of rosuvastatin and other statins for cardiovascular risk reduction among the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sydney B Long

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sydney B Long, Michael J Blaha, Roger S Blumenthal, Erin D MichosJohns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Baltimore, MD, USAAbstract: Age is one of the strongest predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk. Treatment with statins can significantly reduce CVD events and mortality in both primary and secondary prevention. Yet despite the high CVD risk among the elderly, there is underutilization of statins in this population (ie, the treatment-risk paradox. Few studies have investigated the use of statins in the elderly, particularly for primary prevention and, as a result, guidelines for treating the elderly are limited. This is likely due to: uncertainties of risk assessment in older individuals where the predictive value of individual risk factors is decreased; the need to balance the benefits of primary prevention with the risks of polypharmacy, health care costs, and adverse medication effects in a population with decreased life expectancy; the complexity of treating patients with many other comorbidities; and increasingly difficult social and economic concerns. As life expectancy increases and the total elderly population grows, these issues become increasingly important. JUPITER (Justification for the Use of statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin is the largest primary prevention statin trial to date and enrolled a substantial number of elderly adults. Among the 5695 JUPITER participants ≥70 years of age, the absolute CVD risk reduction associated with rosuvastatin was actually greater than for younger participants. The implications of this JUPITER subanalysis and the broader role of statins among older adults is the subject of this review.Keywords: JUPITER, rosuvastatin, elderly, risk

  14. Remote Imaging of Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Entry Heating Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, David M.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Schwartz, Richard J.

    2016-01-01

    A Measure of Performance (MOP) identified with an Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Multi- Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Flight Test Objective (FTO) (OFT1.091) specified an observation during reentry though external ground-based or airborne assets with thermal detection capabilities. The objective of this FTO was to be met with onboard Developmental Flight Instrumentation (DFI), but the MOP for external observation was intended to provide complementary quantitative data and serve as a risk reduction in the event of anomalous DFI behavior (or failure). Mr. Gavin Mendeck, the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Phase Engineer for the MPCV Program (Vehicle Integration Office/Systems & Mission Integration) requested a risk-reduction assessment from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to determine whether quantitative imagery could be obtained from remote aerial assets to support the external observation MOP. If so, then a viable path forward was to be determined, risks identified, and an observation pursued. If not, then the MOP for external observation was to be eliminated.

  15. Risk reduction treatment of psychopathy and applications to mentally disordered offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Stephen C P; Olver, Mark E

    2015-06-01

    Therapeutic nihilism on treating psychopathy is widespread and is largely based on many outdated and poorly designed studies. Important recent advances have been made in assessing psychopathy and recidivism risks, as well as in offender rehabilitation to reduce reoffending, all of which are now well supported by a considerable literature based on credible empirical research. A 2-component model to guide risk reduction treatment of psychopathy has been proposed based on the integration of key points from the 3 bodies of literature. Treatment programs in line with the model have been in operation, and the results of early outcome evaluations are encouraging. Important advances also have been made in understanding the possible etiology of mentally disordered offenders with schizophrenia and history of criminality and violence, some with significant features of psychopathy. This article presents a review of recent research on risk reduction treatment of psychopathy with the additional aim to extend the research to the treatment of mentally disordered offenders with schizophrenia, violence, and psychopathy.

  16. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  17. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  18. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  19. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  20. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  1. [Are near-death experiences following attempted suicide important for suicide risk assessment? A case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kralovec, Karl; Plöderl, Martin; Aistleiner, Ursula; Fartacek, Clemens; Fartacek, Reinhold

    2009-01-01

    We describe a 59-year old patient who reported a near-death experience following attempted suicide. The near-death experience induced reduction of suicidality. Previous studies suggested a high prevalence of near-death experiences following attempted suicide and that near-death experiences may decrease rather than increase subsequent suicide risk. Implications for suicide risk assessment are discussed.

  2. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  3. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  5. The Chornobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vargo, G.J. [ed.; Poyarkov, V.; Bar`yakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.; Kholosha, V.; Shestopalov, V.

    1999-10-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chornobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chornobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chornobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  6. Risk assessment meta tool LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchard, Ann Marie; Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2006-12-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a risk analysis meta tool--a tool that enables security analysts both to combine and analyze data from multiple other risk assessment tools on demand. Our approach was based on the innovative self-assembling software technology under development by the project team. This technology provides a mechanism for the user to specify his intentions at a very high level (e.g., equations or English-like text), and then the code self-assembles itself, taking care of the implementation details. The first version of the meta tool focused specifically in importing and analyzing data from Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) force-on-force simulation. We discuss the problem, our approach, technical risk, and accomplishments on this project, and outline next steps to be addressed with follow-on funding.

  7. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  8. Depression in primary care: assessing suicide risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Chung Wai Mark; How, Choon How; Ng, Yin Ping

    2017-01-01

    Major depression is a common condition seen in the primary care setting. This article describes the suicide risk assessment of a depressed patient, including practical aspects of history-taking, consideration of factors in deciding if a patient requires immediate transfer for inpatient care and measures to be taken if the patient is not hospitalised. It follows on our earlier article about the approach to management of depression in primary care. PMID:28210741

  9. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm ...

  10. The Oviduct and Serous Cancer Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    all the pathological and immunological hallmarks of human high-grade serous cancer , such as gain of p53, EZH2 and MUC4 expression (Figure 2a) 15 26...59 60 For Peer Review Figure 3. . Molecular correlates of progression from STIC to invasive cancer . a. Left, Histology of the sections used...1 AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-14-1-0504 TITLE: The Oviduct and Serous Cancer Risk Assessment PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Christopher P. Crum, MD

  11. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  12. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  13. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  14. Moderate alcohol consumption and cardiovascular risk reduction: open issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Costanzo

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: The inverse relationship between low to moderate alcohol consumption and several favorable health outcomes has been well established in many epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. However, several questions still remain controversial.

    Aims: To discuss a number of open questions relating to the healthy effect of a moderate intake of alcohol (especially wine on cardiovascular disease and total mortality. This will be based on findings from the literature, with a particular emphasis on meta-analyses.

    Results and Conclusion: The role of different alcoholic beverages, age and sex, confounding, former drinkers and study design has been discussed. Whether wine is better than beer or spirits, though suggestive, remains to be established. Cardiovascular morbidity and total mortality is significantly reduced both in men and women who are regular drinkers of low amounts of alcohol; however, the predicted protection in women disappears at lower doses than in men. The primary protection of alcohol decreases after adjustment for known variables, thus confirming the importance of confounding in assessing drinking effects, but it remains significant and of undoubted public health value. As the cardiovascular protection by moderate alcohol consumption might have been unduly overestimated by inclusion in control groups of former drinkers, we compared studies that used as a reference group the category of no alcohol intake and/or formally excluded former drinkers with studies which did not: the protection was indeed somewhat lower in the former than in the latter studies, but was still statistically significant. We conclude that the dose-response relationship between alcohol intake and cardiovascular risk or total mortality, consistently described by J-shaped curves, can be reasonably attributed to a combination of both real beneficial (at lower doses and harmful (at higher doses

  15. Army Planning: Comprehensive Risk Assessment Needed for Planned Changes to the Armys Force Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    focus on retaining combat units, and senior Army leaders ’ assessment that shortfalls in combat units are more challenging to resolve than shortfalls in...According to the Army, this reduction will require reductions of both combat and supporting units. Army leaders reported that reducing the Army to...such levels creates significant but manageable risk to executing the U.S. military strategy and that further reductions would result in unacceptable

  16. Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls

  17. Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena; Oomen, Agnes; Bos, Peter; Peijnenburg, Willie; van Tongeren, Martie; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Brunelli, Andrea; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Tran, Lang; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-10-01

    Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim of this paper was to review and critically analyse these approaches against a set of relevant criteria. The analysis concluded that none of the reviewed frameworks were able to fulfill all evaluation criteria. Many of the existing modelling tools are designed to provide screening-level assessments rather than to support regulatory RA and risk management. Nevertheless, there is a tendency towards developing more quantitative, higher-tier models, capable of incorporating uncertainty into their analyses. There is also a trend towards developing validated experimental protocols for material identification and hazard testing, reproducible across laboratories. These tools could enable a shift from a costly case-by-case RA of MNs towards a targeted, flexible and efficient process, based on grouping and read-across strategies and compliant with the 3R (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) principles. In order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs.

  18. Endocrine disrupting pesticides: implications for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinlay, R; Plant, J A; Bell, J N B; Voulvoulis, N

    2008-02-01

    Endocrine disrupting (ED) chemicals are compounds that alter the normal functioning of the endocrine system, potentially causing disease or deformity in organisms and their offspring. Pesticides are used widely to kill unwanted organisms in crops, public areas, homes and gardens and medicinally to kill parasites. Many are proven or suspected to be EDs. Ancient physiological similarities between different vertebrate groups suggest that disorders observed in wildlife may indicate risks to humans. This makes accurate risk assessment and effective legislation difficult. In this paper, the hazardous properties of pesticides which are known to have ED properties are reviewed in order to assess the implications for risk assessment. As well as data on sources of exposure in the United Kingdom (UK) an assessment of the evidence on the health effects of ED pesticides is also included. In total, 127 have been identified from the literature and their effects and modes of action are listed in this paper. Using the UK as a case study, the types and quantities of pesticides used, and their methods of application are assessed, along with their potential pathways to humans. In the UK reliable data are available only for agricultural use, so non-agricultural routes of pesticide exposure have been poorly quantified. The exposure of people resident in or visiting rural areas could also have been grossly under-estimated. Material links between ED pesticide use and specific illnesses or deformities are complicated by the multifactorial nature of disease, which can be affected by factors such as diet. Despite these difficulties, a large body of evidence has accumulated linking specific conditions to ED pesticides in wildlife and humans. A more precautionary approach to the use of ED pesticides, especially for non-essential purposes is proposed.

  19. Reduction of regulatory risk: a network economic approach

    OpenAIRE

    Knieps, Günter; Weiß, Hans-Jörg

    2007-01-01

    Several definitions of regulatory risk are known from the literature. From the perspective of regulatory reform it is important to differentiate between the impact of a given regulatory scheme on the firm's risk exposure and the risk arising from discretionary behavior of regulatory agencies. Whereas the conse-quences of effective regulation in principle are known and accepted, excessive regulatory discretion may cause a strong need for regulatory reform. Regulatory reform focussing on the re...

  20. HIV-Risk Reduction with Juvenile Offenders on Probation

    OpenAIRE

    Donenberg, Geri R.; Emerson, Erin; Mackesy-Amiti, Mary Ellen; Udell, Wadiya

    2014-01-01

    Youth involved in the juvenile justice system are at elevated risk for HIV as a result of high rates of sexual risk taking, substance use, mental health problems and sexually transmitted infections. Yet few HIV prevention programs exist for young offenders. This pilot study examined change in juvenile offenders’ sexual activity, drug/alcohol use, HIV testing and counseling, and theoretical mediators of risk taking following participation in PHAT Life, an HIV-prevention progr...

  1. Disaster risk assessment at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudzani A. Makhado

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study reports about disaster risk assessment undertaken at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were followed to collect data. A total of eight experienced foresters and fire fighters were purposively sampled for interview at Roburnia Plantation. A questionnaire survey was also used to collect the data. Risk levels were quantified using the risks equations of Wisner et al. (2004 and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR 2002. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Analysis of variance (ANOVA, single factor was also applied. This study found that Roburnia Plantation is highly exposed to fire risks. The mean (± s.d. output from the Wisner risk equation shows that fire is the highest risk at 7.7 ± 0.3, followed by harsh weather conditions at 5.6 ± 0.4 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 2.3 ± 0.2. Similarly, the mean (± s.d. output from the UNISDR risk equation also shows that fire is the highest risk at 2.9 ± 0.2, followed by harsh weather conditions at 2.2 ± 0.3 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 1.3 ± 0.2. There was no significant deference in the risk analysis outputs (p = 0.13. This study also found that the number of fire incidents were low during summer, but increased during winter and spring. This variation is mainly due to a converse relationship with rainfall, because the availability of rain moistens the area as well as the fuel. When the area and fuel is moist, fire incidents are reduced, but they increase with a decrease in fuel moisture.

  2. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  3. Relationships Between Animal Health Monitoring and the Risk Assessment Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salman MD

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is part of the risk analysis process as it is used in veterinary medicine to estimate risks related to international trade and food safety. Data from monitoring and surveillance systems (MO&SS are used throughout the risk assessment process for hazard identification, release assessment, exposure assessment and consequence assessment. As the quality of risk assessments depends to a large extent on the availability and quality of input data, there is a close relationship between MO&SS and risk assessment. In order to improve the quality of risk assessments, MO&SS should be designed according to minimum quality standards. Second, recent scientific developments on state-of-the-art design and analysis of surveys need to be translated into field applications and legislation. Finally, knowledge about the risk assessment process among MO&SS planners and managers should be promoted in order to assure high-quality data.

  4. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  5. Risk Reduction and Training using Simulation Based Tools - 12180

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, Irin P. [Newport News Shipbuilding, Newport News, Virginia 23607 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Process Modeling and Simulation (M and S) has been used for many years in manufacturing and similar domains, as part of an industrial engineer's tool box. Traditionally, however, this technique has been employed in small, isolated projects where models were created from scratch, often making it time and cost prohibitive. Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) has recognized the value of this predictive technique and what it offers in terms of risk reduction, cost avoidance and on-schedule performance of highly complex work. To facilitate implementation, NNS has been maturing a process and the software to rapidly deploy and reuse M and S based decision support tools in a variety of environments. Some examples of successful applications by NNS of this technique in the nuclear domain are a reactor refueling simulation based tool, a fuel handling facility simulation based tool and a tool for dynamic radiation exposure tracking. The next generation of M and S applications include expanding simulation based tools into immersive and interactive training. The applications discussed here take a tool box approach to creating simulation based decision support tools for maximum utility and return on investment. This approach involves creating a collection of simulation tools that can be used individually or integrated together for a larger application. The refueling simulation integrates with the fuel handling facility simulation to understand every aspect and dependency of the fuel handling evolutions. This approach translates nicely to other complex domains where real system experimentation is not feasible, such as nuclear fuel lifecycle and waste management. Similar concepts can also be applied to different types of simulation techniques. For example, a process simulation of liquid waste operations may be useful to streamline and plan operations, while a chemical model of the liquid waste composition is an important tool for making decisions with respect to waste disposition

  6. Harnessing Farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernhard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak;

    2010-01-01

    This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers’ knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic...

  7. Harnessing farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak;

    2009-01-01

    This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers' knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic...

  8. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  9. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  10. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  11. Risk assessment of poultry sloughterhouses in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROVENA JAHELEZI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess the risk of poultry slaughterhouses in order to achieve a better official inspection. Study is taking place in 5 poultry slaughterhouses in Albania. The study was conducted through two tasks: poultry slaughterhouses classification related to the risk assessment based on the characteristics of the plant, product characteristics, production, hygiene processes, HACCP, and on the identification of presence of Salmonella spp in the slaughterhouse environment and in the final product. In every slaughterhouse, inspections are performed every 3 months, by completing the appropriate checklist using point’s evaluation. The results show that 5 slaughterhouses resulted in high risk (over 42 points. The detection of Salmonella spp in poultry carcasses is based on ISO 6579: 2002 method. 25 meat samples were analyzed in total where, out of which only one sample resulted with the presence of Salmonella spp in 25 gr. These results are due to an inappropriate Hygienic Practice, Manufacturing Practice and show that HACCP isnotimplementedrigorously.

  12. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  13. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A.; Bradley, R.; Brown, P.; Goodwin, J.; Kihm, U.; Lotero, E.; O' Connor, D.; Schuppers, M.; Taylor, D.

    2007-03-15

    potential to inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

  14. 77 FR 28406 - Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    ... COMMISSION Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft... issuing for public comment a draft NUREG, NUREG-2125, ``Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment (SFTRA...): You may access publicly-available documents online in the NRC Library at...

  15. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  16. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toyofuku, Hajime [Food Safety Department, WHO, Geneva (Switzerland)]. E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-07-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.

  17. Gastric Cancer in Korean Americans: Risks and Reductions

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Karen E

    2003-01-01

    Gastric cancer is one of the leadings cause of cancer worldwide. However, Koreans have the highest reported incidence of this deadly disease. Risk factors predisposing to the formation of gastric cancer include a combination of environmental risks, such as diet and infection (Helicobacter pylori), and, in some cases, genetic predisposition. Early screening and detection is essential to reduce gastric cancer mortality. The low prevalence and late onset of gastric cancer in Americans, compared ...

  18. Flood risk assessment: concepts, modelling, applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tsakiris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural hazards have caused severe consequences to the natural, modified and human systems, in the past. These consequences seem to increase with time due to both higher intensity of the natural phenomena and higher value of elements at risk. Among the water related hazards flood hazards have the most destructive impacts. The paper presents a new systemic paradigm for the assessment of flood hazard and flood risk in the riverine flood prone areas. Special emphasis is given to the urban areas with mild terrain and complicated topography, in which 2-D fully dynamic flood modelling is proposed. Further the EU flood directive is critically reviewed and examples of its implementation are presented. Some critical points in the flood directive implementation are also highlighted.

  19. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  20. Risk assessment of soybean-based phytoestrogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwack, Seung Jun; Kim, Kyu-Bong; Kim, Hyung Sik; Yoon, Kyung Sil; Lee, Byung Mu

    2009-01-01

    Koreans generally consume high quantities of soybean-based foods that contain a variety of phytoestrogens, such as, daidzein, zenistein, and biochalin A. However, phytoestrogens are considered to be potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDC), which interfere with the normal function of the hormonal and reproductive systems. Therefore, dietary exposure to soybean-based phytoestrogens is of concern for Koreans, and comparative dietary risk assessments are required between Japanese (high consumers) versus Americans (low consumers). In this study, a relative risk assessment was conducted based upon daily intake levels of soybean-based foods and phytoestrogens in a Korean cohort, and the risks of photoestrogens were compared with those posed by estradiol and other EDC. Koreans approximately 30-49 yr of age consume on average a total of 135.2 g/d of soy-based foods including soybean, soybean sauce, soybean paste, and soybean oil, and 0.51 mg/kg body weight (bw)/d of phytoestrogens such as daidzein and genistein. Using estimated daily intakes (EDI) and estrogenic potencies (EP), margins of safety (MOS) were calculated where 0.05 is for estradiol (MOS value estrogenic effect); thus, MOS values of 1.89 for Japanese, 1.96 for Koreans, and 5.55 for Americans indicate that consumption of soybean-based foods exerted no apparent estrogenic effects, as all MOS values were all higher than 1. For other synthetic EDC used as reference values, MOS values were dieldrin 27, nonylphenol 250, butyl benzyl phthalate 321, bisphenol A 1000, biochanin A 2203, and coumesterol 2898. These results suggest that dietary exposure to phytoestrogens, such as daidzein and genistein, poses a relatively higher health risk for humans than synthetic EDC, although MOS values were all greater than 1.

  1. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  2. 78 FR 23901 - Interagency Risk Assessment-Listeria monocytogenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-23

    ... Food Safety and Inspection Service Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail... risk assessment (QRA), ``Interagency Risk Assessment--Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens... and on the FSIS Web site at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Listeria-Transcript_062309.pdf ). II....

  3. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

    2015-04-01

    The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia

  4. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  5. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  6. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  7. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  8. Adolescent substance use and unplanned pregnancy: strategies for risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connery, Hilary Smith; Albright, Brittany B; Rodolico, John M

    2014-06-01

    Substance use among adolescents increases the risk of unplanned pregnancies, which then increases the risk of fetal exposure to addictive, teratogenic substances. Specific interventions are necessary to target pregnancy planning and contraception among reproductive-age substance users. Screening for substance use using the CRAFFT is recommended in all health care settings treating adolescent patients. Screening for tobacco and nicotine use is also recommended along with the provision of smoking cessation interventions. Using motivational interviewing style and strategies is recommended to engage adolescents in discussions related to reducing substance use, risky sexual behavior, and probability of unplanned pregnancy or late-detection pregnancy.

  9. Navigating complexity through knowledge coproduction: Mainstreaming ecosystem services into disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyers, Belinda; Nel, Jeanne L; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Sitas, Nadia; Nel, Deon C

    2015-06-16

    Achieving the policy and practice shifts needed to secure ecosystem services is hampered by the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their management. Methods for the participatory production and exchange of knowledge offer an avenue to navigate this complexity together with the beneficiaries and managers of ecosystem services. We develop and apply a knowledge coproduction approach based on social-ecological systems research and assess its utility in generating shared knowledge and action for ecosystem services. The approach was piloted in South Africa across four case studies aimed at reducing the risk of disasters associated with floods, wildfires, storm waves, and droughts. Different configurations of stakeholders (knowledge brokers, assessment teams, implementers, and bridging agents) were involved in collaboratively designing each study, generating and exchanging knowledge, and planning for implementation. The approach proved useful in the development of shared knowledge on the sizable contribution of ecosystem services to disaster risk reduction. This knowledge was used by stakeholders to design and implement several actions to enhance ecosystem services, including new investments in ecosystem restoration, institutional changes in the private and public sector, and innovative partnerships of science, practice, and policy. By bringing together multiple disciplines, sectors, and stakeholders to jointly produce the knowledge needed to understand and manage a complex system, knowledge coproduction approaches offer an effective avenue for the improved integration of ecosystem services into decision making.

  10. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  11. Assessment of rockfall risk along roads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Budetta

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper contains a method for the analysis of rockfall risk along roads and motorways. The method is derived from the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS developed by Pierson et al. (1990 at the Oregon State Highway Division. The RHRS provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. Exponential scoring functions are used to represent the increases, respectively, in hazard and in vulnerability that are reflected in the nine categories forming the classification. The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the degree of the exposition to the risk along roads. In the modified method, the ratings for the categories 'ditch effectiveness', 'geologic characteristic', 'volume of rockfall/block size', 'climate and water circulation' and 'rockfall history' have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of Slope Mass Rating by Romana (1985, 1988, 1991 improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and the underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring for the categories 'decision sight distance' and 'road geometry'. For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - CNR have been used (CNR, 1980. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the decision sight distance greatly affects the results. An application of the modified method to a 2km long section of the Sorrentine road (no 145 in Southern Italy was developed. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied to seven cross sections of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road. For these slopes, the analysis shows that the risk is

  12. Hand hygiene regimens for the reduction of risk in food service environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, Sarah L; McCormack, Robert R; Zhou, Sifang Steve; Macinga, David R; Fricker, Christopher M

    2012-07-01

    Pathogenic strains of Escherichia coli and human norovirus are the main etiologic agents of foodborne illness resulting from inadequate hand hygiene practices by food service workers. This study was conducted to evaluate the antibacterial and antiviral efficacy of various hand hygiene product regimens under different soil conditions representative of those in food service settings and assess the impact of product formulation on this efficacy. On hands contaminated with chicken broth containing E. coli, representing a moderate soil load, a regimen combining an antimicrobial hand washing product with a 70% ethanol advanced formula (EtOH AF) gel achieved a 5.22-log reduction, whereas a nonantimicrobial hand washing product alone achieved a 3.10log reduction. When hands were heavily soiled from handling ground beef containing E. coli, a wash-sanitize regimen with a 0.5% chloroxylenol antimicrobial hand washing product and the 70% EtOH AF gel achieved a 4.60-log reduction, whereas a wash-sanitize regimen with a 62% EtOH foam achieved a 4.11-log reduction. Sanitizing with the 70% EtOH AF gel alone was more effective than hand washing with a nonantimicrobial product for reducing murine norovirus (MNV), a surrogate for human norovirus, with 2.60- and 1.79-log reductions, respectively. When combined with hand washing, the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 3.19-log reduction against MNV. A regimen using the SaniTwice protocol with the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 4.04-log reduction against MNV. These data suggest that although the process of hand washing helped to remove pathogens from the hands, use of a wash-sanitize regimen was even more effective for reducing organisms. Use of a high-efficacy sanitizer as part of a wash-sanitize regimen further increased the efficacy of the regimen. The use of a well-formulated alcohol-based hand rub as part of a wash-sanitize regimen should be considered as a means to reduce risk of infection transmission in food service facilities.

  13. Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, William W.; Broadhead, Ron; Sung, Andrew

    2000-10-24

    This project developed an Artificial Intelligence system that drew up on a wide variety of information in providing realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods derived usable conclusions, were demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications.

  14. Risk Assessment Model for Mobile Malware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Stanescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mobile technology is considered to be the fastest-developing IT security area. Only in the last year security threats around mobile devices have reached new heights in terms of both quality and quantity. The speed of this development has made possible several types of security attacks that, until recently, were only possible on computers. In terms of the most targeted mobile operating systems, Android continues to be the most vulnerable, although new ways of strengthening its security model were introduced by Google. The aim of this article is to provide a model for assessing the risk of mobile infection with malware, starting from a statistical analysis of the permissions required by each application installed into the mobile system. The software implementation of this model will use the Android operating system and in order to do so, we will start by analyzing its permission-based security architecture. Furthermore, based on statistical data regarding the most dangerous permissions, we build the risk assessment model and, to prove its efficiency, we scan some of the most popular apps and interpret the results. To this end, we offer an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this permission-based model and we also state a short conclusion regarding model’s efficiency.

  15. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  16. Mediation of an efficacious HIV risk reduction intervention for South African men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B; Jemmott, Loretta S; Bellamy, Scarlett; Icard, Larry D; Ngwane, Zolani

    2015-10-01

    "Men, Together Making a Difference!" is an HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention that significantly increased self-reported consistent condom use during vaginal intercourse compared with a health-promotion attention-control intervention among men (N = 1181) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The present analyses were designed to identify mediators of the intervention's efficacy. The potential mediators were Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs that the intervention targeted, including several aspects of condom-use self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and knowledge. Mediation was assessed using a product-of-coefficients approach where an α path (the intervention's effect on the potential mediator) and a β path (the potential mediator's effect on the outcome of interest, adjusting for intervention) were estimated independently in a generalized estimating equations framework. Condom-use negotiation self-efficacy, technical-skill self-efficacy, and impulse-control self-efficacy were significant mediators. Although not mediators, descriptive norm and expected friends' approval of condom use predicted subsequent self-reported condom use, whereas the expected approval of sexual partner did not. The present results suggest that HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions that draw upon SCT and that address self-efficacy to negotiate condom use, to apply condoms correctly, and to exercise sufficient control when sexually aroused to use condoms may contribute to efforts to reduce sexual risk behavior among South African men. Future research must examine whether approaches that build normative support for condom use among men's friends are also efficacious.

  17. Assessment and insurance risk of foreign economic activity: accounting aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Susyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on research approaches to risk positioning grounded classification of risks arising in foreign trade activity. Deals with issues of assessment and insurance risks expediency display your losses from them. To reduce the negative impact of risks the theoretical foundations of security and practical advice with his reflection in the system of accounts. Grounded algorithm to select the most suitable method of risk assessment and constructed flowchart automation choice method for assessing the risk of foreign trade. The expediency of development of self-insurance risks of foreign economic activity.

  18. Physical characterization of MMVF for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, T

    1995-10-01

    Size and other physical properties of MMVF play a central role in risk assessment. They can be affected by, for example, conditions during manufacturing, and preparation prior to administration to experimental animals or cells. It is suggested that a necessary requirement for stating that an experiment has been repeated should be documented evidence that: (i) the administered fibres are alike when analysed with not less than a minimum number of well-established methods on single fibre and on bulk sample level; and (ii) doses must be equal, and the fibre concentrations and sizes at the primary target tissue must be documented. Assessment of fibre toxicity and assessment of potential for exposure are equally important in the risk assessment process. The physics of fibrous dust release is described and methods for a priori assessment of exposure are classified into three levels depending on the analytical effort involved: (1) direct analysis of the fibrous bulk material; (2) bench-scale test; and (3) full-scale tests of prefabricated insulation material in a test room during standardized insulation work. For the first method, two approaches are investigated. One relates the size-dependent measures (the mass of fibres with D fractions (the fraction of total fibre length with D fraction of WHO fibre number, and the fraction of fibre number with D fractions only range up to 2 orders of magnitude and are almost independent on GSD(D) for nominal diameters ranging 2-4 microns. The combined effect on exposure of bulk fibre size, and of addition of oil and binder, should be assessed by the rotating drum dustiness test. The gold standard test of prefabricated MMVF products should be a full-scale simulation. The slope of the curve relating overall average product nominal diameter and airborne fibre concentrations on a log-log scale [Esmen et al., Am. ind. Hyg. Ass.J. 40, 108-117 (1979)] has been confirmed on a qualitative basis using model calculations, so that this relation

  19. ACTINIC MASK INSPECTION AT THE ALS: RISK REDUCTION ACTIVITIES FOR 2003

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barty, A; Levesque, R; Ayers, J; Liu, Y; Gullikson, E; Barale, P

    2004-01-05

    This document reports on risk reduction activities performed at the VNL during CY2003 as a part of the Lith-343 actinic inspection project funded by International SEMATECH. The risk reduction activities described in this document comprise deliverable items 3.1.3, 3.1.4, 3.1.5 and 3.1.6 of Amendment 6 to the VNL EUV mask blank technology transfer contract.

  20. Brief communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction - success or warning sign for Paris?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret; Mechler, Reinhard; Aerts, Jeroen

    2016-09-01

    In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.

  1. SY 09-1 LOWERING SALT INTAKE AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK REDUCTION: WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappuccio, Francesco

    2016-09-01

    The evidence. Salt (i.e. sodium chloride) is causally related to blood pressure (BP). The higher the salt intake, the higher the BP, an effect seen since birth. A small and sustained reduction in salt intake causes a fall in BP. The evidence from controlled studies, small and large, short and long, all agree on the following: (1) salt intake is one of the major determinants of BP in populations and individuals; (2) a reduction in salt intake causes a dose-dependent reduction in BP - the lower the salt the lower the BP; (3) the effect is seen in both sexes, in people of all ages and ethnic groups, and with all starting BPs. High BP causes strokes and heart attacks and a reduction in BP is associated with their reduction. A reduction in salt intake reduces BP, stroke and other cardiovascular events, including chronic kidney disease, by as much as 23% (i.e. 1.25 M deaths worldwide). The effect is related to the size of the fall in BP, the bigger the fall in BP the greater the benefits. It is therefore conceivable that a moderate reduction in salt intake in a population would help reduce stroke, heart attacks and vascular kidney disease through BP reduction.The preventive imperative. In a population, there is a log-linear (exponential) relationship between the levels of BP (that are normally distributed) and the risk of developing a cardiovascular event, especially stroke. Whilst the relative risk of having a stroke is the highest in the upper level of BP (i.e. the hypertensives), the attributable events in the population (absolute risk) are fewer that those that would be attributable to the moderate relative risk of moderate levels of BP amongst the majority (i.e. the normotensives). Therefore, a shift in the entire BP distribution, even of a moderate amount, would avert a greater number of events than just the 'treatment' of those in the extreme end of the BP distribution. Population salt reduction strategies aim at exactly this.The economic imperative. All

  2. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  3. Army Health Promotion, Risk Reduction, Suicide Prevention: Report 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    the combat readiness of Soldiers by ensuring a drug free environment.69 ASAP provides commanders with a mechanism for testing and treating those who...describes the processes in place to detect potentially high risk behavior. It is the duty of every leader to understand the mechanisms in place that are...amphetamines such as ecstasy . ARMY HP/RR/SP REPORT 2010 54 The Department of Defense requires a minimum of 20% of all samples be tested against the

  4. Role of green tea in reduction of cardiovascular risk factors

    OpenAIRE

    Vlachopoulos, Charalambos; Alexopoulos, Nikolaos; Stefanadis, C.

    2010-01-01

    Nikolaos Alexopoulos, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Christodoulos Stefanadis1st Cardiology Department, Athens Medical School, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, GreeceAbstract: Tea is widely consumed worldwide. There is accumulating evidence that tea ­consumption may be associated with reduced cardiovascular risk, an association that could be attributed to its flavonoid content. Green tea, the most common type of tea consumed in Asia, contains a large amount of nonoxidized flavonoids, named c...

  5. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  6. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... the actual risk assessment procedures and the risk evaluation, which must proceed the data collection. The report use the terminology ecological risk assessment rather than environmental risk assessment because at present this work does not include bio-geochemical effects and environmental impacts from...... for uncertainties in the extrapolation from limited laboratory studies to the species rich field environment. The relationship between the size of the safety factor and the number of species is therefore an issue of the risk assessment. Some of the issues raised in this report overlap with data needs...

  7. Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G

    2004-08-01

    This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

  8. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  9. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-01-01

    Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process a...

  10. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

  11. Health Risk-Based Assessment and Management of Heavy Metals-Contaminated Soil Sites in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zueng-Sang Chen

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based assessment is a way to evaluate the potential hazards of contaminated sites and is based on considering linkages between pollution sources, pathways, and receptors. These linkages can be broken by source reduction, pathway management, and modifying exposure of the receptors. In Taiwan, the Soil and Groundwater Pollution Remediation Act (SGWPR Act uses one target regulation to evaluate the contamination status of soil and groundwater pollution. More than 600 sites contaminated with heavy metals (HMs have been remediated and the costs of this process are always high. Besides using soil remediation techniques to remove contaminants from these sites, the selection of possible remediation methods to obtain rapid risk reduction is permissible and of increasing interest. This paper discusses previous soil remediation techniques applied to different sites in Taiwan and also clarified the differences of risk assessment before and after soil remediation obtained by applying different risk assessment models. This paper also includes many case studies on: (1 food safety risk assessment for brown rice growing in a HMs-contaminated site; (2 a tiered approach to health risk assessment for a contaminated site; (3 risk assessment for phytoremediation techniques applied in HMs-contaminated sites; and (4 soil remediation cost analysis for contaminated sites in Taiwan.

  12. Health Risk-Based Assessment and Management of Heavy Metals-Contaminated Soil Sites in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Hung-Yu; Hseu, Zeng-Yei; Chen, Ting-Chien; Chen, Bo-Ching; Guo, Horng-Yuh; Chen, Zueng-Sang

    2010-01-01

    Risk-based assessment is a way to evaluate the potential hazards of contaminated sites and is based on considering linkages between pollution sources, pathways, and receptors. These linkages can be broken by source reduction, pathway management, and modifying exposure of the receptors. In Taiwan, the Soil and Groundwater Pollution Remediation Act (SGWPR Act) uses one target regulation to evaluate the contamination status of soil and groundwater pollution. More than 600 sites contaminated with heavy metals (HMs) have been remediated and the costs of this process are always high. Besides using soil remediation techniques to remove contaminants from these sites, the selection of possible remediation methods to obtain rapid risk reduction is permissible and of increasing interest. This paper discusses previous soil remediation techniques applied to different sites in Taiwan and also clarified the differences of risk assessment before and after soil remediation obtained by applying different risk assessment models. This paper also includes many case studies on: (1) food safety risk assessment for brown rice growing in a HMs-contaminated site; (2) a tiered approach to health risk assessment for a contaminated site; (3) risk assessment for phytoremediation techniques applied in HMs-contaminated sites; and (4) soil remediation cost analysis for contaminated sites in Taiwan. PMID:21139851

  13. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  14. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls.

  15. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  16. Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater-irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Konradsen, Flemming

    2008-01-01

    , authorities and the general public, especially if they had some incentives. These findings demonstrate the need to involve farmers as early as possible in intervention projects especially in informal farming practices, like urban agriculture, where restrictions are difficult to implement. This will ensure......Most irrigation water used in urban vegetable farming in Ghana is contaminated with untreated wastewater. This poses health risks to farmers and consumers. As part of a study to explore options for health risk reduction, this paper summarizes farmers' perceptions on health risks and possible risk...

  17. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  18. Data management and GIS in the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM: from integrated spatial data to the mapping of risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Köhler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The project 'Risk Map Germany' of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM aims at the examination of existing and the development of new approaches for integrated risk assessment as well as the realisation of risk analyses for selected threats and regions. Hazard, vulnerability and risk maps display the results and provide valuable information for planning, insurances, emergency management, science and the public. This article describes the development of the basic information infrastructure for CEDIM and the 'Risk Map Germany' providing components for the networking of participating institutions, for common data management, data dissemination and publication. While a web based project platform offers information and communication facilities for all the project members and also the presentation of CEDIM to the public, an integrated data base is prepared as foundation for cross-discipline but common risk assessment. It is made available by the spatial data service 'CEDIM Data Center' which allows the project members to inform themselves about the characteristics of existing data and its applicability for their specific tasks by exploring GIS functionalities. Suitable data can be downloaded and further processed in their own work environment. The components' alignment with the principles of Spatial Data Infrastructures is required to accomplish the suppositions for long-term availability and accessibility of data, information and services.

  19. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  20. Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: The need to empower local government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry N. Bang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risks in Cameroon with particular focus on the challenges local government faces in implementing disaster risk reduction strategies. The hypothesis is that the governance of disaster risks is too centralised at the national level, with huge implications for the effective governance of disaster risks at the local level. Although Cameroon has reinvigorated efforts to address growing disaster risks in a proactive way, it is argued that the practical actions are more reactive than proactive in nature. The overall aim is to explore the challenges and opportunities that local government has in the governance of disaster risks. Based on the findings from this research, policy recommendations are suggested on ways to mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies into local governance, and advance understanding and practice in the local governance of disaster risks in the country.

  1. Reduction of inequalities in health: assessing evidence-based tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shea Beverley

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The reduction of health inequalities is a focus of many national and international health organisations. The need for pragmatic evidence-based approaches has led to the development of a number of evidence-based equity initiatives. This paper describes a new program that focuses upon evidence- based tools, which are useful for policy initiatives that reduce inequities. Methods This paper is based on a presentation that was given at the "Regional Consultation on Policy Tools: Equity in Population Health Reports," held in Toronto, Canada in June 2002. Results Five assessment tools were presented. 1. A database of systematic reviews on the effects of educational, legal, social, and health interventions to reduce unfair inequalities is being established through the Cochrane and Campbell Collaborations. 2 Decision aids and shared decision making can be facilitated in disadvantaged groups by 'health coaches' to help people become better decision makers, negotiators, and navigators of the health system; a pilot study in Chile has provided proof of this concept. 3. The CIET Cycle: Combining adapted cluster survey techniques with qualitative methods, CIET's population based applications support evidence-based decision making at local and national levels. The CIET map generates maps directly from survey or routine institutional data, to be used as evidence-based decisions aids. Complex data can be displayed attractively, providing an important tool for studying and comparing health indicators among and between different populations. 4. The Ottawa Equity Gauge is applying the Global Equity Gauge Alliance framework to an industrialised country setting. 5 The Needs-Based Health Assessment Toolkit, established to assemble information on which clinical and health policy decisions can be based, is being expanded to ensure a focus on distribution and average health indicators. Conclusion Evidence-based planning tools have much to offer the

  2. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...... to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other...

  3. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  4. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  5. Reduction of seismic risk for immovable cultural property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuzović Duško

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The existing legislation for determining the seismic design parameters, which is used in Serbia, is defined by the "Code on technical norms for construction of buildings in seismic areas" ("Sl. List SFRJ" no. 31/81, and its amendments and amendments to ("Sl. List SFRJ" no. 49/82, 29/83, 21/88 and 52/90, as well as Code on technical standards for remediation, strengthening and reconstruction of building structures damaged in earthquakes and for reconstruction and revitalization of building structures ("Sl .List SFRY", no. 52/85 etc. The above mentioned normatives are related to the seismic risk prevention for the newly constructed buildings or their revitalization, and all of them obey to no collapse requirement. Within them, all structures are grouped into appropriate categories comprising allowed seismic risk in their service life. Having in mind their uniqueness and irreparable loss in the event of their destruction it is necessary to take all required actions in order to protect them in the event of an earthquake. All new solutions within regulations of seismic construction should be associated with the provisions of the Law on Cultural Property ("Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia" no. 71/94. These legislative changes would result in obligation to prevent seismic hazards to which historical buildings are exposed, through standardized legal studies and interventions on buildings.

  6. Consideration of the food environment in cancer risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krukowski, Rebecca A; West, Delia Smith

    2010-06-01

    Recently, there has been increased attention to the food environment's impact on chronic disease, specifically obesity and cardiovascular disease. Cancer is certainly another substantial public health concern, and dietary intake and obesity/overweight have been identified as two key cancer risk factors; however, the role of the food environment in cancer-prevention efforts seems largely uncharted territory. Previous research has shown that areas with a higher proportion of individuals in racial minority groups and areas with lower incomes have more limited access to healthful foods, which can negatively impact dietary intake and body mass index. Parallel patterns of higher cancer incidence and mortality rates among these vulnerable populations could be linked to lack of access to healthful foods. Future research utilizing food environment measures could point to broad community-level approaches for modifying diet-related cancer risk. Nutrition professionals will be a crucial element in designing and implementing food environment-based individual, family, and community interventions, which could be potent strategies for cancer prevention.

  7. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment.

  8. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Iain Brown

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government...

  9. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...

  10. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  11. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews so

  12. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crevel, R.W.R.; Baumert, J.L.; Baka, A.; Houben, G.F.; Knulst, A.C.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Luccioli, S.; Taylor, S.L.; Madsen, C.B.

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment

  13. HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category among MSM in Vancouver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogowicz, Paul; Moore, David; Kanters, Steve; Michelow, Warren; Robert, Wayne; Hogg, Robert; Gustafson, Réka; Gilbert, Mark

    2016-03-01

    We carried out an analysis of a serobehavioural study of men who have sex with men >19 years of age in Vancouver, Canada to examine HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category, as defined by routinely gathered clinical data. We restricted our analysis to those who self-identified as HIV-negative, completed a questionnaire, and provided a dried blood spot sample. Of 842 participants, 365 (43.3%) were categorised as lower-risk, 245 (29.1%) as medium-risk and 232 (27.6%) as higher-risk. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was low (lower 0.8%, medium 3.3%, higher 3.9%; p = 0.032). Participants differed by risk category in terms of having had an HIV test in the previous year (lower 46.5%, medium 54.6%, higher 67.0%; p risk reduction strategies. These findings speak to the need to consider segmented health promotion services for men who have sex with men with differing risk profiles. Risk stratification could be used to determine who might benefit from tailored multiple health promotion interventions, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis.

  14. Structuring Cooperative Nuclear RIsk Reduction Initiatives with China.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, Larry [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Reinhardt, Jason Christian [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Hecker, Siegfried [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation engaged several Chinese nuclear organizations in cooperative research that focused on responses to radiological and nuclear terrorism. The objective was to identify joint research initiatives to reduce the global dangers of such threats and to pursue initial technical collaborations in several high priority areas. Initiatives were identified in three primary research areas: 1) detection and interdiction of smuggled nuclear materials; 2) nuclear forensics; and 3) radiological (“dirty bomb”) threats and countermeasures. Initial work emphasized the application of systems and risk analysis tools, which proved effective in structuring the collaborations. The extensive engagements between national security nuclear experts in China and the U.S. during the research strengthened professional relationships between these important communities.

  15. Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: the need to empower local government

    OpenAIRE

    Bang, Henry N.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risk...

  16. Risk analysis local grids. Mapping and reduction of risks in electric power grids; Riskanalysmetod lokalnaet. Kartlaeggning och reduktion av risker i elnaet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kylefors, Martin; Fredholm, Lotta; Sandstroem, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    The objective of the project has been to contribute to development of risk analysis applications that correspond to the need of investments as an effect of new regulation. The aim has been to develop a method for screening and assessing risks, and for ranking risk reducing measures in order of priority. Phase 1 has consisted of an overview of methods, selection of appropriate methods, and development of principles regarding application suitable for power distribution companies. Phase 2 has consisted of adjustments and tests of the method. The method focuses on risks associated with power failures, with a duration exceeding 12 hours, in medium voltage local networks. Stations are excluded. The suggested method is based on principles of Preliminary Hazard Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis. Risks are suggested to be assessed based on three main factors (load, exposure and alternative supply). The quota between the highest and lowest value is 20 for each factor. Each factor is assessed by underlying factors such as type of cable/wire, number of customers and average power consumption. By multiplying the factors a resulting risk level is obtained in the range of 0.05 to 400. The level determines the need for further investments. Appropriate risk reducing measure is selected by putting the risk reduction (benefit) in relation to the total costs for investment and maintenance, for each alternative measure. There is a further need for development of a method for stations. There is also a further need for development of a priority model in city networks where power failures less than 12 hours are taken into account. Finally there is a need to turn the functional requirement (no power failures exceeding 24 hours) into an acceptable risk level

  17. Gemitis : an integrated and participative risk reduction strategy for the sustainable development of cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masure, P.

    2003-04-01

    The GEMITIS method has been implemented since 1995 into a global and integrated Risk Reduction Strategy for improving the seismic risk-assessment effectiveness in urban areas, including the generation of crisis scenarios and mid- to long term- seismic impact assessment. GEMITIS required us to provide more precise definitions of notions in common use by natural-hazard specialists, such as elements at risk and vulnerability. Until then, only the physical and human elements had been considered, and analysis of their vulnerability referred to their fragility in the face of aggression by nature. We have completed this approach by also characterizing the social and cultural vulnerability of a city and its inhabitants, and, with a wider scope, the functional vulnerability of the "urban system". This functional vulnerability depends upon the relations between the system elements (weak links in chains, functional relays, and defense systems) and upon the city's relations with the outside world (interdependence). Though well developed in methods for evaluating industrial risk (fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, multiple defense barriers, etc.), this aspect had until now been ignored by the "hard-science" specialists working on natural hazards. Based on the implementation of an Urban System Exposure methodology, we were able to identify specific human, institutional, or functional vulnerability factors for each urban system, which until had been very little discussed by risk-analysis and civil-protection specialists. In addition, we have defined the new concept of "main stakes" of the urban system, ranked by order of social value (or collective utility). Obviously, vital or strategic issues must be better resistant or protected against natural hazards than issues of secondary importance. The ranking of exposed elements of a city in terms of "main stakes" provides a very useful guide for adapting vulnerability studies and for orienting preventive actions. For this

  18. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  19. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  20. Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Discharge from a Coastal Watershed

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Neng-Wang; HONG Hua-Sheng; ZHANG Luo-Ping; CAO Wen-Zhi

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) uses probability theory to quantify the probability of occurrence of an event. In this study, PRA was conducted for the discharge of excess nitrogen (N) from an agricultural (Jiulong River) watershed in Southeast China. Using fault tree analysis, a type of PRA, the probability of occurrence of excess N discharge into the river during a runoff event was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Land use maps, soil maps, fertilizer use records, and expert opinions were used to determine probabilities of individual events within the fault tree and to calculate the overall probability of excess N discharge during a runoff event. Qualitative analysis showed that the risk of excess N discharge was mainly related to crop and livestock practices in the watershed. Proper management of tillage, fertilizer, and manure was necessary to control N releases. Quantitative assessment results indicated that alternative practices including reduction of fertilization, installation of vegetative strip buffer around the pig farms, and installation of more riparian buffers along the Jiulong River could reduce the likelihood of N discharge through runoff.

  1. Reduction of livelihood risk for river bank erosion affected villagers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumder, S. Sen; Fox, D. M.; Chakrabari, S.; Bhandari, G.

    2014-12-01

    Bank erosion process of the Ganga River created a serious livelihood risk for the villagers situated on left bank of the river in Malda district of the State of West Bengal, India since last four decades. Due to the erosion of agriculture land by the river, most of the villagers having agriculture as their only means of livelihood became jobless suddenly. Presently they are living in a miserable condition. One of the main objectives of this paper is to find out an alternative means of livelihood for the victims to improve their miserable socio-economic condition. It has been found from field survey that some erosion affected villagers have started to live and practice agriculture temporarily on the riverine islands (large and stable since thirteen years) as these islands have very fertile soil. If the re-emerged land plots can again be demarcated on the newly formed islands and distributed among the landless people to practice agriculture over there, then it will be a useful alternative livelihood strategy for the victims. The demarcation of re-emerged plots can be achieved by georeferencing the cadastral maps and then overlaying the plots on the present river course. In the present study area geo-referencing process of the cadastral maps became a serious issue as the study area has been very dynamic in terms of land cover and land use. Most of the villages were lost into the river course. Thus the common permanent features, required for geo-referencing, shown in the cadastral maps (surveyed during 1954-1962) were not found in the present satellite images. The second important objective of the present study is to develop a proper methodology for geo-referencing the cadastral maps of this area. The Spatial Adjustment Transformation and Automatic Digitization tools of Arc GIS were used to prepare geo-referenced plot maps. In Projective Transformation method the geometrically corrected block maps having village boundaries were used as source file. Then the

  2. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard a

  3. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Tilling

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks – ground-based as well space-based – has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  4. Social media in disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, David E

    2014-09-01

    This paper reviews the actual and potential use of social media in emergency, disaster and crisis situations. This is a field that has generated intense interest. It is characterised by a burgeoning but small and very recent literature. In the emergencies field, social media (blogs, messaging, sites such as Facebook, wikis and so on) are used in seven different ways: listening to public debate, monitoring situations, extending emergency response and management, crowd-sourcing and collaborative development, creating social cohesion, furthering causes (including charitable donation) and enhancing research. Appreciation of the positive side of social media is balanced by their potential for negative developments, such as disseminating rumours, undermining authority and promoting terrorist acts. This leads to an examination of the ethics of social media usage in crisis situations. Despite some clearly identifiable risks, for example regarding the violation of privacy, it appears that public consensus on ethics will tend to override unscrupulous attempts to subvert the media. Moreover, social media are a robust means of exposing corruption and malpractice. In synthesis, the widespread adoption and use of social media by members of the public throughout the world heralds a new age in which it is imperative that emergency managers adapt their working practices to the challenge and potential of this development. At the same time, they must heed the ethical warnings and ensure that social media are not abused or misused when crises and emergencies occur.

  5. Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena;

    2016-01-01

    Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans...

  6. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  7. Exposure and risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higashino, Haruyuki; Mita, Kazuaki; Yoshikado, Hiroshi; Iwata, Mitsuo; Nakanishi, Junko

    2007-03-20

    1,3-Butadiene is on the list of Substances Requiring Priority Action published by the Central Environmental Council of Japan in 1996. Emission of 1,3-butadiene has been controlled by a voluntary reduction program since 1997. Although the industrial emission of 1,3-butadiene in Japan has decreased in recent years, primarily due to a voluntary industrial emissions reduction program, the risks of exposure to it remain largely unknown. We assessed the risks and consequences of exposure to 1,3-butadiene on human health. A remarkable advantage of our risk assessment approach is the detailed assessment of exposure. Previously, we developed two different models that can be applied for the assessment of exposure: the first, the AIST-ADMER model estimates regional concentration distributions, whereas the second, the METI-LIS model estimates concentration distributions in the vicinity of factories. Both models were used for the assessment of exposure to 1,3-butadiene. Using exposure concentration and carcinogenic potency determined and reported by Environment Canada and Health Canada, we evaluated the excess lifetime cancer risk for persons exposed to 1,3-butadiene over the course of a lifetime. The results suggested that the majority of the population in Japan has an excess lifetime cancer risk of less than 10(-5), whereas a small number of people living close to industrial sources had a risk of greater than 10(-5). The results of the present assessment also showed that 1,3-butadiene in the general environment originates primarily from automobile emissions, such that a countermeasure of reducing emissions from cars is expected to be effective at reducing the total cancer risk among Japanese. On the other hand, individual risks among a population living in the vicinity of certain industrial sources were found to be significantly higher than those of the population living elsewhere, such that a reduction in emissions from a small number of specific industrial sources should be

  8. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  9. Ischemic stroke risk reduction following cardiac surgery by carotid compression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isingoma, Paul

    20s does not result in greater particle reduction than one of 10s. Our results demonstrate that brief compression of the common carotid arteries during an embolic shower can reduce the number of dangerous emboli by over 85%.

  10. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William W. Weiss

    2000-06-30

    Incomplete or sparse information on geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. Expert systems have been developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, with favorable results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is proposed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. This project will develop an Artificial Intelligence system that will draw upon a wide variety of information to provide realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods to derive usable conclusions, has been demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications. During project year 1, 90% of geologic, geophysical, production and price data were assimilated for installation into the database. Logs provided geologic data consisting of formation tops of the Brushy Canyon, Lower Brushy Canyon, and Bone Springs zones of 700 wells used to construct regional cross sections. Regional structure and isopach maps were constructed using kriging to interpolate between the measured points. One of the structure derivative maps (azimuth of curvature) visually correlates with Brushy Canyon fields on the maximum change contours. Derivatives of the regional geophysical data also visually correlate with the location of the fields. The azimuth of maximum dip approximately locates fields on the maximum change contours. In a similar manner the second derivative in the x-direction of the gravity map visually correlates with the alignment of the known fields. The visual correlations strongly suggest that neural network architectures will be

  11. Scientific Opinion on the risks to plant health posed by Xylella fastidiosa in the EU territory, with the identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The EFSA Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment and an evaluation of risk reduction options for Xylella fastidiosa. X. fastidiosa has been detected in olive in the EU with a distribution restricted to the region of Apulia in Italy and is under official control. X. fastidiosa has a very broad host range, including many common cultivated and wild plants. All xylem fluid-feeding insects in Europe are considered to be potential vectors. Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera: Aphrophoridae, a polyphagous spittlebug widespread in the whole risk assessment area, has been identified as a vector in Apulia. The probability of entry of X. fastidiosa from countries where X. fastidiosa is reported is very high with plants for planting and moderate with infectious insect vectors carried with plant commodities or travelling as stowaways. Establishment and spread in the EU is very likely. The consequences are considered to be major because yield losses and other damage would be high and require costly control measures. The systematic use of insecticides for vector control may create environmental impacts. With regard to risk reduction options, strategies for the prevention of introduction and for the containment of outbreaks should focus on the two main pathways (plants for planting and infectious insect vectors and combine the most effective options in an integrated approach. For plants for planting, these could be pest-free production areas, surveillance, certification, screened greenhouse production, vector control and testing for infection and, for some plant species, treatments (e.g. thermotherapy. To prevent entry of the infectious vectors, insecticide treatments and inspection of consignments and production sites are required. The Panel has also reviewed the effectiveness of risk reduction options for X. fastidiosa and its vectors listed in Directive 2000/29/EC and in the EU emergency measures. The Panel recommends the continuation and

  12. Scientific Opinion on the risk to plant health posed by Puccinia horiana Hennings for the EU territory, with the identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Puccinia horiana Hennings (the causal agent of chrysanthemum white rust for the EU territory, identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness. The assessment was conducted taking into account current EU legislation. The Panel also provided an opinion on the effectiveness of the present EU requirements against this organism, listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Two major pathways for entry were identified: plant material of susceptible hosts for propagation purposes and cut flowers of Chrysanthemum × morifolium. The probability of further entry of the pest was considered unlikely, as the existing certification schemes for propagation material should reduce the risk of importing infected cuttings. For cut flowers, pest transfer to susceptible hosts is associated with the potentially incorrect disposal of cut flower waste within the vicinity of places of production, which is considered a rare event. The probability of establishment and further spread were both considered very likely. The current overall impact in the risk assessment area was considered minor, with medium uncertainty, mainly because standard protective actions are taken in most EU production areas. Risk reduction options to reduce the probability of entry and spread and mitigate the impact were analysed. Council Directive 2000/29/EC addresses mainly the sanitary status of the propagation material. The Directive cannot prevent the entry, establishment and spread, or mitigate the impact, of the pathogen. Were the current regulation to be removed, the frequency of introduction would probably increase. This poses a risk because, although the pest is widespread in the risk assessment area, not all Member States are infested and not all pest pathotypes are present. If a statutory certification system, with associated import requirements for propagation material of host plants, were introduced, this

  13. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  14. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  15. Risk assessment of Short and Medium Chain Chlorinated Paraffin’s (SCCP and MCCP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Frans Møller; Olsen, Stig Irving

    2002-01-01

    reduction measures should be taken. It should be mentioned that there are still a few issues pending in the preparation of the MCCP report, which is therefore currently only in a draft version. The current report therefore fulfils the aim of illustrating the scientific and political aspects of the EU risk......, it has been necessary to focus the LCA part of the case study on a metal working fluid with MCCP and an alternative without CP’s. In order to make a reasonable comparison between LCA and risk assessment evaluations, it would therefore be advantageous to also have a risk assessment of the alternative...... assessment methods. An important conclusion at this stage of the project is however that risk assessments comparing alternatives cannot always be made at the substance level. It is necessary to take the function that the substances deliver into account. Interestingly this is the default approach in life...

  16. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  17. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  18. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    . 1986). Outbreaks have also been reported from exposure to P. aeruginosa in swimming pools and water slides. Although P. aeruginosa has a reputation for being resistant to disinfection, most studies show that it does not exhibit any marked resistance to the disinfectants used to treat drinking water such as chlorine, chloramines, ozone, or iodine. One author, however, did find it to be slightly more resistant to UV disinfection than most other bacteria (Wolfe 1990). Although much has been written about biofilms in the drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization from ingesting P. aeruginosa in drinking water is low. The risk is slightly higher if the subject is taking an antibiotic resisted by P. aeruginosa. The fact that individuals on ampicillin are more susceptible to Pseudomonas gastrointestinal infection probably results from suppression of normal intestinal flora, which would allow Pseudomonas to colonize. The process of

  19. Frequent salad vegetable consumption is associated with a reduction in the risk of diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D E; Wareham, N J; Cox, B D; Byrne, C D; Hales, C N; Day, N E

    1999-04-01

    This cross-sectional study was undertaken to investigate the association between the reported frequency of consumption of vegetables and fruits, the choice of staple carbohydrate, and glucose intolerance. One thousand one hundred twenty-two subjects aged 40-64 years in a population-based study underwent an oral glucose tolerance test, and their food consumption was assessed using a food-frequency questionnaire. The crude prevalence of undiagnosed non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) was 4.5%, and that of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) 16.8%. The age-standardized prevalence rates were 2.3 and 11.2%, respectively. Frequent consumption of vegetables throughout the year was inversely associated with the risk of having NIDDM (odds ratio [OR] = 0.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.04-0.69). This association was maintained after adjustment for age, gender, and family history. Vegetable consumption during the summer months had a much weaker inverse association with the risk of having NIDDM that failed to reach statistical significance. A nonsignificant inverse association between frequent consumption of fruits and NIDDM was observed. Frequent self-reported pasta and rice consumption was associated with a reduction in the risk of having IGT and NIDDM. (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.44-0.87, and OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.27-0.99, respectively) but this relationship was not independent of age. Whether these associations reflect specific effects of particular nutrients or are a reflection of the patterning of lifestyle factors remains to be determined.

  20. Effects of Community Based Educational Prevention Program of Drug Abuse in Reduction of High Risk Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Aranpour

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Overcoming social problems requires a participatory approach. This study was performed in order to determine the effect of community based educational prevention program of drug abuse in reduction of high risk behavior. Methods: This study was a community based participatory research. According to planned approach to community health model, "the health companion group" was established with participation of public representatives of villages, researchers, and managers of health sectors. Need assessment and priority setting of health problems was done. Drug abuse was selected as the topmost priority of health problems. By interviewing 10 year olds and older members of households, the questionnaires were completed. By conducting workshops, distributing educational pamphlets and face to face training for six months, the educational program was carried out. After this period, the study population was interviewed again. Data was analyzed by SPSS software, X2, and T tests. Results: The mean score of drug abuse related high risk behavior was 26.8 +/- 2.05 before educational program and 25.2 ±2.3 after the program. The mean score of psychological health was 26.2±5.8 before educational program and 26.4±5.7 after the program. The rate of negative drug abusing related behavior decreased and positive behavior increased after the educational program. Conclusion: The community based participatory research with participation of the public can be a proper pattern to prevent drug abuse and related high risk behaviors and as a result reduce costs and complications of this problem.

  1. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  2. Behavioral Couples Treatment for Substance Use Disorder: Secondary Effects on the Reduction of Risk for Child Abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Michelle L; Bravo, Adrian J; Braitman, Abby L; Lawless, Adrienne K; Lawrence, Hannah R

    2016-03-01

    Risk for child abuse was examined prior to and after behavioral couples treatment (BCT) among 61 couples in which one or both parents were diagnosed with substance use disorder (SUD). All couples were residing with one or more school-age children. Mothers and fathers completed pretreatment, post-intervention, and 6-month post-intervention follow-up assessments. Results of piecewise latent growth models tested whether the number of BCT sessions attended and number of days abstinent from drugs and alcohol influenced relationship satisfaction and its growth over time, and in turn if relationship satisfaction and change in relationship satisfaction influenced risk for child abuse. For both mothers and fathers, attending more BCT sessions lead to a direct increase in relationship satisfaction, which in turn led to stronger reductions in risk for child abuse. This effect was maintained from the post-intervention through the 6-month post-intervention follow-up. For fathers, number of days abstinent significantly influenced reduction in child abuse potential at post-intervention via relationship satisfaction. This indirect effect was not present for mothers. The overall benefits of BCT on mothers' and fathers' risk for child abuse suggest that BCT may have promise in reducing risk for child abuse among couples in which one or both parents have SUD.

  3. 77 FR 58590 - Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-21

    ... COMMISSION Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License... NUREG-0800, ``Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants: LWR Edition,'' Section 19.1, ``Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment...

  4. Extracting additional risk managers information from a risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Rodríguez, F.; Asselt, van E.D.; García-Gimeno, R.M.; Zurera, G.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2007-01-01

    The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and s

  5. THE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  6. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  7. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  8. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith

    2014-01-01

    of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of positive...... test results varied from 8.7 to 15.9% in HIV infection (n = 768), 25.3 to 30.6% in chronic renal failure (n = 270), 25.0% to 37.2% in rheumatoid arthritis (n = 199), 9.0 to 20.0% in solid-organ transplant recipients (n = 197), 0% to 5.8% in stem-cell transplant recipients (n = 103), and 11.2 to 15...

  9. PHOTOGRAMMETRY IN EXPERIMENTS FOR HYDROGEOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Barazzetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors, potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China.

  10. A dynamic human health risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Umesh; Singh, Gurmit; Pant, A B

    2012-05-01

    An online human health risk assessment system (OHHRAS) has been designed and developed in the form of a prototype database-driven system and made available for the population of India through a website - www.healthriskindia.in. OHHRAS provide the three utilities, that is, health survey, health status, and bio-calculators. The first utility health survey is functional on the basis of database being developed dynamically and gives the desired output to the user on the basis of input criteria entered into the system; the second utility health status is providing the output on the basis of dynamic questionnaire and ticked (selected) answers and generates the health status reports based on multiple matches set as per advise of medical experts and the third utility bio-calculators are very useful for the scientists/researchers as online statistical analysis tool that gives more accuracy and save the time of user. The whole system and database-driven website has been designed and developed by using the software (mainly are PHP, My-SQL, Deamweaver, C++ etc.) and made available publically through a database-driven website (www.healthriskindia.in), which are very useful for researchers, academia, students, and general masses of all sectors.

  11. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  12. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  13. Exposure Data for Travel Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O; Koornstra, Matthijs; Broughton, Jeremy;

    1999-01-01

    This report illustrates why risk and exposure data are critical for policymaking at local, national and EU levels.Conclusions are drawn about the evaluation and use of risk information for different modes and estimates are presented for the fatality risk of various travel modes in the EU....

  14. Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

    2010-08-15

    This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

  15. Renal-Stone Risk Assessment During Space Shuttle Flights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitson, Peggy A.; Pietrzyk, Robert A.; Pak, Charles Y. C.

    1996-01-01

    The metabolic and environmental factors influencing renal stone formation before, during, and after Space Shuttle flights were assessed. We established the contributing roles of dietary factors in relationship to the urinary risk factors associated with renal stone formation. 24-hr urine samples were collected prior to, during space flight, and following landing. Urinary factors associated with renal stone formation were analyzed and the relative urinary supersaturation ratios of calcium oxalate, calcium phosphate (brushite), sodium urate, struvite and uric acid were calculated. Food and fluid consumption was recorded for a 48-hr period ending with the urine collection. Urinary composition changed during flight to favor the crystallization of stone-forming salts. Factors that contributed to increased potential for stone formation during space flight were significant reductions in urinary pH and increases in urinary calcium. Urinary output and citrate, a potent inhibitor of calcium-containing stones, were slightly reduced during space flight. Dietary intakes were significantly reduced for a number of variables, including fluid, energy, protein, potassium, phosphorus and magnesium. This is the first in-flight characterization of the renal stone forming potential in astronauts. With the examination of urinary components and nutritional factors, it was possible to determine the factors that contributed to increased risk or protected from risk. In spite of the protective components, the negative contributions to renal stone risk predominated and resulted in a urinary environment that favored the supersaturation of stone-forming salts. The importance of the hypercalciuria was noted since renal excretion was high relative to the intake.

  16. Defining food sampling strategy for chemical risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Wesolek, Nathalie; Roudot, Alain-Claude

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Collection of accurate and reliable data is a prerequisite for informed risk assessment and risk management. For chemical contaminants in food, contamination assessments enable consumer protection and exposure assessments. And yet, the accuracy of a contamination assessment depends on both chemical analysis and sampling plan performance. A sampling plan is always used when the contamination level of a food lot is evaluated, due to the fact that the whole lot can not be...

  17. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preston, Benjamin L [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  18. Landscape planning for agricultural nonpoint source pollution reduction III: assessing phosphorus and sediment reduction potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diebel, Matthew W; Maxted, Jeffrey T; Robertson, Dale M; Han, Seungbong; Vander Zanden, M Jake

    2009-01-01

    Riparian buffers have the potential to improve stream water quality in agricultural landscapes. This potential may vary in response to landscape characteristics such as soils, topography, land use, and human activities, including legacies of historical land management. We built a predictive model to estimate the sediment and phosphorus load reduction that should be achievable following the implementation of riparian buffers; then we estimated load reduction potential for a set of 1598 watersheds (average 54 km(2)) in Wisconsin. Our results indicate that land cover is generally the most important driver of constituent loads in Wisconsin streams, but its influence varies among pollutants and according to the scale at which it is measured. Physiographic (drainage density) variation also influenced sediment and phosphorus loads. The effect of historical land use on present-day channel erosion and variation in soil texture are the most important sources of phosphorus and sediment that riparian buffers cannot attenuate. However, in most watersheds, a large proportion (approximately 70%) of these pollutants can be eliminated from streams with buffers. Cumulative frequency distributions of load reduction potential indicate that targeting pollution reduction in the highest 10% of Wisconsin watersheds would reduce total phosphorus and sediment loads in the entire state by approximately 20%. These results support our approach of geographically targeting nonpoint source pollution reduction at multiple scales, including the watershed scale.

  19. Landscape planning for agricultural nonpoint source pollution reduction III: Assessing phosphorus and sediment reduction potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diebel, M.W.; Maxted, J.T.; Robertson, D.M.; Han, S.; Vander Zanden, M. J.

    2009-01-01

    Riparian buffers have the potential to improve stream water quality in agricultural landscapes. This potential may vary in response to landscape characteristics such as soils, topography, land use, and human activities, including legacies of historical land management. We built a predictive model to estimate the sediment and phosphorus load reduction that should be achievable following the implementation of riparian buffers; then we estimated load reduction potential for a set of 1598 watersheds (average 54 km2) in Wisconsin. Our results indicate that land cover is generally the most important driver of constituent loads in Wisconsin streams, but its influence varies among pollutants and according to the scale at which it is measured. Physiographic (drainage density) variation also influenced sediment and phosphorus loads. The effect of historical land use on present-day channel erosion and variation in soil texture are the most important sources of phosphorus and sediment that riparian buffers cannot attenuate. However, in most watersheds, a large proportion (approximately 70%) of these pollutants can be eliminated from streams with buffers. Cumulative frequency distributions of load reduction potential indicate that targeting pollution reduction in the highest 10% of Wisconsin watersheds would reduce total phosphorus and sediment loads in the entire state by approximately 20%. These results support our approach of geographically targeting nonpoint source pollution reduction at multiple scales, including the watershed scale. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  20. Reduction of Risk for Low Back Injury in Theater of Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    significant effects of group (p < 0.001), angle of measurement (p < 0.001), and group X angle of measurement interaction (p = 0.001) were observed...1 Award Number: W81XWH-11-2-0170 TITLE: Reduction of Risk for Low Back Injury in Theater of Operations Principal Investigator: William S. Quillen...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Reduction of Risk for Low Back Injury in Theater of Operations 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W81XWH-11-2-0170 Operations 5b. GRANT NUMBER

  1. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  2. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  3. Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Monira Hussain

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

  4. Challenges to disaster risk reduction: A study of stakeholders’ perspectives in Imizamo Yethu, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann-Sofie Roth

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available South Africa is a complex and dynamic society, with overwhelming and increasing problems with disaster risk in the vulnerable urban communities in and around its rapidly growing metropolitan centres. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the challenges for disaster risk reduction in such communities. It focuses on the case of Imizamo Yethu, in the Western Cape, in order to build theory that is grounded in the empirical realities of stakeholders involved in disaster risk reduction there. The result points towards five interrelated key challenges, which must be concurrently addressed through large-scale development efforts. Without such investments, it is unlikely that disaster risks can be reduced to tolerable levels.

  5. International Frameworks for Disaster Risk Reduction: Useful Guidance for Sustainable Mountain Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Zimmermann

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, a number of global frameworks have been developed for disaster risk reduction (DRR. The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015 and its successor document, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, adopted in Japan in March 2015, provide general guidance for reducing risks from natural hazards. This is particularly important for mountainous areas, but DRR for mountain areas and sustainable mountain development received little attention in the recent policy debate. The question remains whether the Hyogo and Sendai frameworks can provide guidance for sustainable mountain development. This article evaluates the 2 frameworks in light of the special challenges of DRR in mountain areas and argues that, while the frameworks offer valuable guidance, they need to be further adapted for local contexts—particularly for mountain areas, which require special attention because of changing risk patterns like the effects of climate change and high land-use pressure.

  6. Population vulnerability and disaster risk reduction: A situation analysis among the landslide affected communities in Kerala, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Damodaran Santha

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Landslides affect at least 15% of the land area of India, exceeding 0.49 million km2. Taking the case of landslide affected communities in the state of Kerala in India, this paper demonstrates that the focus has seldom been placed on assessing and reducing vulnerability. From the perspective of political economy, this paper argues that vulnerability reduction has to be the main priority of any disaster risk reduction programme. This paper also demonstrates that the interactions between ecological and social systems are usually complex and non-linear in nature. In contrast, interventions to tackle landslide risks have followed a linear course, assuming that one hazard event acts independently of another. The key findings of the study show that lack of access to political power, decision making, and resources, insecure livelihoods,environmental degradation, and ine#ectiveness of the state approach to disaster risk reduction are some of the major factors that lead to increasing vulnerability. Qualitative in nature, the primary data were collected through in-depth interviews with people from different groups such as farmers affected by the landslides and secondary floods, men and women living in the temporary shelter, government representatives involved in relief activities, health authorities, and elected representatives.

  7. Quantitative microbial risk assessment of antibacterial hand hygiene products on risk of shigellosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffner, Donald W; Bowman, James P; English, Donald J; Fischler, George E; Fuls, Janice L; Krowka, John F; Kruszewski, Francis H

    2014-04-01

    There are conflicting reports on whether antibacterial hand hygiene products are more effective than nonantibacterial products in reducing bacteria on hands and preventing disease. This research used new laboratory data, together with simulation techniques, to compare the ability of nonantibacterial and antibacterial products to reduce shigellosis risk. One hundred sixtythree subjects were used to compare five different hand treatments: two nonantibacterial products and three antibacterial products, i.e., 0.46% triclosan, 4% chlorhexidine gluconate, or 62% ethyl alcohol. Hands were inoculated with 5.5 to 6 log CFU Shigella; the simulated food handlers then washed their hands with one of the five products before handling melon balls. Each simulation scenario represented an event in which 100 people would be exposed to Shigella from melon balls that had been handled by food workers with Shigella on their hands. Analysis of experimental data showed that the two nonantibacterial treatments produced about a 2-log reduction on hands. The three antibacterial treatments showed log reductions greater than 3 but less than 4 on hands. All three antibacterial treatments resulted in statistically significantly lower concentration on the melon balls relative to the nonantibacterial treatments. A simulation that assumed 1 million Shigella bacteria on the hands and the use of a nonantibacterial treatment predicted that 50 to 60 cases of shigellosis would result (of 100 exposed). Each of the antibacterial treatments was predicted to result in an appreciable number of simulations for which the number of illness cases would be 0, with the most common number of illness cases being 5 (of 100 exposed). These effects maintained statistical significance from 10(6) Shigella per hand down to as low as 100 Shigella per hand, with some evidence to support lower levels. This quantitative microbial risk assessment shows that antibacterial hand treatments can significantly reduce Shigella risk.

  8. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment part II: selection of assessment endpoint attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Kaminski, Laurel A

    2007-07-01

    Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and important feature of ecological risk assessments. In Part 1 of this series it was demonstrated that population scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. This commentary reviews several of the characteristics of populations that can be evaluated and used in population scale risk assessments. Two attributes are evaluated as promising. The 1st attribute is the change in potential productivity of the population over a specified time period. The 2nd attribute is the change in the age structure of a population, expressed graphically or as a normalized effects vector (NEV). The NEV is a description of the change in age structure due to a toxicant or other stressor and appears to be characteristic of specific stressor effects.

  9. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  10. 2011 FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Lidar: Nashua River Watershed (Massachusetts, New Hampshire)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data are the lidar points collected for FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) for the Nashua River Watershed. This area falls in portions of...

  11. Assessment of the risk of transporting liquid chlorine by rail

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, W.B.

    1980-03-01

    This report presents the risk of shipping liquid chlorine by rail. While chlorine is not an energy material, there are several benefits to studying chlorine transportation risks. First, chlorine, like energy materials, is widely used as a feedstock to industry. Second, it is the major purification agent in municipal water treatment systems and therefore, provides direct benefits to the public. Finally, other risk assessments have been completed for liquid chlorine shipments in the US and Europe, which provide a basis for comparison with this study. None of the previous PNL energy material risk assessments have had other studies for comparison. For these reasons, it was felt that a risk assessment of chlorine transportation by rail could provide information on chlorine risk levels, identify ways to reduce these risks and use previous studies on chlorine risks to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the PNL risk assessment methodology. The risk assessment methodology used in this study is summarized. The methodology is presented in the form of a risk assessment model which is constructed for ease of periodic updating of the data base so that the risk may be reevaluated as additional data become available. The report is sectioned to correspond to specific analysis steps identified in the model. The transport system and accident environment are described. The response of the transport system to accident environments is described. Release sequences are postulated and evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a direct comparison with other reports in this series.

  12. Assessing risk: the role of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in patient safety improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wreathall, J; Nemeth, C

    2004-06-01

    Morbidity and mortality due to "medical errors" compel better understanding of health care as a system. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been used to assess the designs of high hazard, low risk systems such as commercial nuclear power plants and chemical manufacturing plants and is now being studied for its potential in the improvement of patient safety. PRA examines events that contribute to adverse outcomes through the use of event tree analysis and determines the likelihood of event occurrence through fault tree analysis. It complements tools already in use in patient safety such as failure modes and effects analyses (FMEAs) and root cause analyses (RCAs). PRA improves on RCA by taking account of the more complex causal interrelationships that are typical in health care. It also enables the analyst to examine potential solution effectiveness by direct graphical representations. However, PRA simplifies real world complexity by forcing binary conditions on events, and it lacks adequate probability data (although recent developments help to overcome these limitations). Its reliance on expert assessment calls for deep domain knowledge which has to come from research performed at the "sharp end" of acute care.

  13. Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    arrival time, maximum flooding level or "Run-up", hazard degree for people based on incipient velocity for people instability) along the coast of El Salvador and at some relevant locations (high resolution analysis). The VULNERABILITY assessment of the exposed elements (Phase II of the project) is based on an integrated approach which is essential given the complexity of coastal areas. A set of indices and indicators have been developed supported by a Geographic Information System that allows graphical representation of physical, environmental, social, economic and infrastructure characteristics of the coast. Different spatial and temporal scales have been also considered in this project to calculate the risk, since both factors would change the amount and type of exposed elements and their vulnerability. A final global RISK analysis (hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis for each dimension -human, environmental, socioeconomic and infrastructure- and both temporal and spatial scales) allows identifying weaknesses, gaps and special needs to cope with a tsunami event and, therefore, will result in a set of risk reduction measures, including adaptation and mitigation measures.

  14. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...... randomly selected 5000 women living in the region of Southern Denmark aged 40-90 years to receive a mailed questionnaire concerning risk factors for osteoporosis based on FRAX. The predicted 10-year probability of hip fractures was calculated for each woman returning a complete questionnaire using...... the Swedish version of FRAX. The observed 10-year hip fracture risk was also calculated for each woman using age-specific hip fracture rates from the National Hospital Discharge Register and National survival tables. RESULTS: A total of 4194 (84%) women responded to the questionnaire and 3636 (73%) gave...

  15. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  16. What if Dutch investors started worrying about flood risk? Implications for disaster risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Husby, T.G.; Mechler, R.; Jongman, B.

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, roles and responsibilities of the public sector in flood risk management are receiving attention in research and policy. Part of the debate suggests that allocating risk to the private sector increases efficiency as it promotes individual adaptation, thereby reducing the impact if a di

  17. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  18. Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandberg, B.; Kjær, C.; Hindar, K.

    It was the aim of this NordTest project to propose improvements that prepare us to assess ecological risks to the environment associated with releases of existing and coming GMO cases. The report is separated into three sections. The first describes the frames of ecological risk assessment...

  19. Recognizing Success: Assessing Arts Residencies for "At Risk" Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidoff, Paula

    2007-01-01

    Assessing the success of a residency with an at-risk population requires an expanded set of standards. While ultimate goals may be the same, one needs a longer time to achieve them. In this article, the author, a teaching artist with long experience working in at-risk settings, argues for a deeper and broader understanding of assessment and…

  20. MINI REVIEW - EPIGENETIC PROCESSES AND CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment encourages the use of mechanistic data in the assessment of human cancer risk at low (environmental) exposure levels. The key events that define a particular mode of action for tumor fo...

  1. Study of occupation health risk assessment on Chinese coal mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIAO Guo-qing; YAN Xiang-nong

    2007-01-01

    Factors of occupation health hazard were identified and analyzed, and indexes system of occupation health risk assessment were established by applying fuzzy theory and system safety technique, the weights of index system were obtained by AHP, finally a reasonable mathematics model of occupation health risk assessment was accomplished by an example.

  2. Predictive validity of the Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Boocock, M.; Coenen, P.; Heuvel, S. van den; Bosch, T.

    2014-01-01

    The Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM) is a simplified risk assessment method for determining musculoskeletal symptoms to the arm, neck and/or shoulder posed by hand-arm tasks of the upper body. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of HARM using data collected from a

  3. Regulating by the Numbers: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Nuclear Power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Elizabeth; Wildavsky, Aaron

    1988-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment has been promoted within the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a means of judging risk to the public and of determining regulatory measures. Interviews with engineers and other technically trained personnel reveal the difficulties created by expectations that this form of assessment should be applied. (TJH)

  4. Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment of Synthetic Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Michelle M; Vermeire, Theo

    2016-08-01

    In 2013, three Scientific Committees of the European Commission (EC) drafted Scientific Opinions on synthetic biology that provide an operational definition and address risk assessment methodology, safety aspects, environmental risks, knowledge gaps, and research priorities. These Opinions contribute to the international discussions on the risk governance for synthetic biology developments.

  5. Risk assessment: the importance of genetic polymorphisms in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Lisbeth E.; Loft, S H; Autrup, H

    2001-01-01

    and increased cancer risk, such results indicate effect modification regarding cancer risk. In risk assessment the safety 'factor' of 10 is generally accepted to allow for variation in individual susceptibility. Reviewing the literature justifies the factor of 10 when considering single polymorphisms. However...... the application in insurance situations is criticised....

  6. Risk assessment: the importance of genetic polymorphisms in man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    E. Knudsen, Lisbeth; Loft, Steffen; Autrup, Herman

    2001-01-01

    and increased cancer risk, such results indicate effect modification regarding cancer risk. In risk assessment the safety ‘factor’ of 10 is generally accepted to allow for variation in individual susceptibility. Reviewing the literature justifies the factor of 10 when considering single polymorphisms. However...... the application in insurance situations is criticised....

  7. Microbiological risk assessment of foods in international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schothorst, van M.

    2002-01-01

    The international workshop on "Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making" reviewed the use of risk-based decision making across a range of industry sectors and countries. This paper presents the contribution to the workshop covering microbiological risk assessment of foods i

  8. Advancing the Contribution of Occupational Epidemiology to Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlaanderen, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    The identification and quantification of risk factors that are characterized by low exposure levels, moderately increased risks, and unspecific exposure-disease relations is a major challenge facing risk assessment today. Occupational epidemiological studies can play a role in addressing this challe

  9. ArgueSecure: Out-of-the-box Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Kegel, Roeland; Wieringa, Roel; Baltuta, Andrei

    2016-01-01

    Most established security risk assessment methodologies aim to produce ranked lists of risks. But ranking requires quantification of risks, which in turn relies on data which may not be available or estimations which might not be accurate. As an alternative, we have previously proposed argumentation

  10. Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Q L; Barker, G C; Gorris, L G M; Tian, M S; Song, X Y; Malakar, P K

    2015-03-01

    Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives.

  11. Integrated tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; García-Aguilar, O.; Medina, R.; González, M.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.

    2014-05-01

    Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow for the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents a tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment for the case study of El Salvador, the applied methodology dealing with the complexity and variability of coastal zones by means of (i) an integral approach to cover the entire risk-related process from the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessments to the final risk management; (ii) an integrated approach to combine and aggregate the information stemming from the different dimensions of coupled human and natural systems; and (iii) a dynamic and scale-dependent approach to integrate the spatiotemporal variability considerations. This work also aims at establishing a clear connection to translate the vulnerability and risk assessment results into adequate target-oriented risk reduction measures, trying to bridge the gap between science and management for the tsunami hazard. The approach is applicable to other types of hazards, having been successfully applied to climate-change-related flooding hazard.

  12. Cavity degradation risk insurance assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hampson, C.; Neill, P.; de Bivort, L.

    1980-01-01

    This study examined the risks and risk management issues involved with the implementation by electric power utilities of compressed air energy storage and underground pumped hydro storage systems. The results are listed in terms of relative risks for the construction and operation of these systems in different geologic deposits, with varying amounts of pressurization, with natural or man-made disasters in the vicinity of the storage equipment, and with different modes of operating the facilities. (LCL)

  13. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crevel, Rene' W. R.; Baumert, Joseph L.; Baka, Athanasia;

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment...... approaches and methodologies. Food allergens possess some unique characteristics, which make a simple safety assessment approach based on the establishment of absolute population thresholds inadequate. Dose distribution modelling of MEDs permitted the quantification of the risk of reaction at the population...... level and has been readily integrated with consumption and contamination data through probabilistic risk assessment approaches to generate quantitative risk predictions. This paper discusses the strengths and limitations of this approach and identifies important data gaps, which affect the outcomes...

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  15. Environmental and industrial risk and crisis assessment: a cognitive approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacques, J.M.; Gatot, L. [Research Center for Crisis and Conflict Management (ReCCCoM), University of Namur (FUNDP), Faculty of Economic, Social and Management Sciences, Namur (Belgium)

    1998-07-01

    The author have tried to show that rational risk analysis exhibits some severe shortcomings in areas where the danger is new and the scientific knowledge is limited and controversial. In such contexts, the traditional dichotomy between objective and subjective risk is not of much help. Thus, traditional risk communication based on information, education, trust in institutions, is not adapted here. The first elements of analysis proposed in this tentative paper suggest that in such contexts, risk communication should be based on participatory methods such as forums for debate. The stake is therefore the democratization of assessment procedure and the development of different means which allow to couple risk and technology assessment. (authors)

  16. Case-by-case risk assessment of broiler meat batches: An effective control strategy for Campylobacter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bjarke Bak; Nauta, Maarten; Korsgaard, Helle;

    2013-01-01

    In 2006, the Danish government decided to take new measures to control Salmonella and Campylobacter in Danish and imported retail meat. The legal basis for these new measures was article 14 in the EU food law, which states that food shall not be placed on the market if it is unsafe, among others...... and the results of more than 3,000 batches of broiler meat tested since 2007. The risk was assessed for batches with one or more samples positive for Campylobacter (>100 cfu/g). Reductions in the number of positive batches from 2007 to 2010 were observed for both domestic (from 17% to 7%, p=0.01) and imported......, for reasons of contamination. This provision allows each member state to make a specific risk assessment of food batches, and decide whether a batch poses an unacceptable risk to the consumer or not. Here we present the basis for the risk assessment model on Campylobacter used in this new approach...

  17. Promoting the University Social Responsibility in the Capacity Development Program for Landslide Risk Reduction in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Verrier, M.; Fathani, T. F.; Andayani, B.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most challenges efforts for landslides disaster risk reduction in Indonesia is to provide an effective program for capacity development of the community living in the vulnerable area. Limited access for appropriate information and knowledge about the geology and landslide phenomena as well as the social-security constrains are the major challenges in capacity development program in the landslide prone area. Accordingly, an action for conducting community-based research and education program with respect to landslide mitigation and disaster risk reduction at the village level was established by implementing the University Social Responsibility Program. Such program has been conducted regularly in every academic semester as a part of the formal academic program at Universitas Gadjah Mada , Indonesia. Twenty students with multi-discipline backgrounds and supported by their lectures/advisers have to be deployed at the village for two months to carry out such mission. This action is also conducted under the coordination with the local/ national Government together with the local community, and may also with the private sectors. A series of research actions such as landslide investigation and hazard-risk mapping, social mapping and development of landslide early warning system were carried out in parallel with public education and evacuation drill for community empowerment and landslide risk reduction. A Community Task Force for Disaster Risk Reduction was also established during the community empowerment program, in order to guarantee the affectivity and sustainability of the disaster risk reduction program at the village level. It is crucial that this program is not only beneficial for empowering the village community to tackle the landslide problems, but also important to support the education for sustainable development program at the disaster prone area. Indeed, this capacity development program may also be considered as one best practice for transforming

  18. A comparison of risk assessments on Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Hill, Andy; Rosenquist, Hanne

    2009-01-01

    In recent years. several quantitative risk assessments for Campylobacter in broiler meat have been developed to support risk managers in controlling this pathogen. The models encompass some or all of the consecutive stages in the broiler meat production chain: primary production, industrial...... processing, consumer food preparation,and the close-response relationship. The modelling approaches vary between the models, and this has supported the progress of risk assessment as a research discipline. The risk assessments are not only used to assess the human incidence of campylobacteriosis due......, it is neither feasible nor desirable to merge the different models into one generic risk assessment model. The purpose of such a generic model has yet to be defined at a European level and the large variety in practices between countries, especially related to consumer food preparation and consumption...

  19. Communicating risk using absolute risk reduction or prolongation of life formats: cluster-randomised trial in general practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Charlotte Gry; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Larsen, Pia Veldt

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is important that patients are well-informed about risks and benefits of therapies to help them decide whether to accept medical therapy. Different numerical formats can be used in risk communication but It remains unclear how the different formats affect decisions made by real-life...... patients. AIM: To compare the impact of using Prolongation Of Life (POL) and Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) information formats to express effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy on patients' redemptions of statin prescriptions, and on patients' confidence in their decision and satisfaction....... The COMRADE questionnaire was used to measure patients' confidence in their decision and satisfaction with the risk communication. RESULTS: Of the 240 patients included for analyses, 112 were allocated to POL information and 128 to ARR. Patients redeeming a statin prescription totalled six (5.4%) when...

  20. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in diabetes: Risk scoresand provocative testing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause ofmorbidity and mortality among patients with diabetesmellitus, who have a risk of cardiovascular mortalitytwo to four times that of people without diabetes. Anindividualised approach to cardiovascular risk estimationand management is needed. Over the past decades,many risk scores have been developed to predict CVD.However, few have been externally validated in adiabetic population and limited studies have examinedthe impact of applying a prediction model in clinicalpractice. Currently, guidelines are focused on testingfor CVD in symptomatic patients. Atypical symptomsor silent ischemia are more common in the diabeticpopulation, and with additional markers of vasculardisease such as erectile dysfunction and autonomicneuropathy, these guidelines can be difficult to interpret.We propose an algorithm incorporating cardiovascularrisk scores in combination with typical and atypical signsand symptoms to alert clinicians to consider furtherinvestigation with provocative testing. The modalities forinvestigation of CVD are discussed.

  1. Dangerous chemical substances – Tools supporting occupational risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Elżbieta Dobrzyńska; Małgorzata Pośniak

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of risk associated with exposure to chemicals in the work environment is a task that still poses a lot of difficulties for the employers. At the same time the probability of adverse health effects faced by an employee as a result of such risks, and the related employer’s material losses should motivate employers to seek effective solutions aimed at assessing the risks and controling them to an acceptable level by the application of appropriate preventive measures. The paper pre...

  2. Impact of dependencies in risk assessments of power distribution systems

    OpenAIRE

    Alvehag, Karin

    2008-01-01

     Society has become increasingly dependent on electricity, so power system reliability is of crucial importance. However, while underinvestment leads to an unacceptable number of power outages, overinvestment will result in costs that are too high for society. The challenge is to find a socioeconomically adequate level of risk. In this risk assessment, not only the probability of power outages, but also the severity of their consequences should be included.   A risk assessment can be performe...

  3. The potential of crowdsourcing and mobile technology to support flood disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    See, Linda; McCallum, Ian; Liu, Wei; Mechler, Reinhard; Keating, Adriana; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mochizuki, Junko; Fritz, Steffen; Dugar, Sumit; Arestegui, Michael; Szoenyi, Michael; Laso-Bayas, Juan-Carlos; Burek, Peter; French, Adam; Moorthy, Inian

    2016-04-01

    The last decade has seen a rise in citizen science and crowdsourcing for carrying out a variety of tasks across a number of different fields, most notably the collection of data such as the identification of species (e.g. eBird and iNaturalist) and the classification of images (e.g. Galaxy Zoo and Geo-Wiki). Combining human computing with the proliferation of mobile technology has resulted in vast amounts of geo-located data that have considerable value across multiple domains including flood disaster risk reduction. Crowdsourcing technologies, in the form of online mapping, are now being utilized to great effect in post-disaster mapping and relief efforts, e.g. the activities of Humanitarian OpenStreetMap, complementing official channels of relief (e.g. Haiti, Nepal and New York). Disaster event monitoring efforts have been further complemented with the use of social media (e.g. twitter for earthquakes, flood monitoring, and fire detection). Much of the activity in this area has focused on ex-post emergency management while there is considerable potential for utilizing crowdsourcing and mobile technology for vulnerability assessment, early warning and to bolster resilience to flood events. This paper examines the use of crowdsourcing and mobile technology for measuring and monitoring flood hazards, exposure to floods, and vulnerability, drawing upon examples from the literature and ongoing projects on flooding and food security at IIASA.

  4. Scientific Opinion on the risk to plant health posed by Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (Fitch in the EU territory, with the identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for the grapevine insect pest, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (an aphid species commonly known as phylloxera, in the European Union, identified risk reduction options and evaluated the effectiveness of the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry was assessed as potentially very likely for plants intended for planting (although the pathway is closed by Article 15 of Annex III and very unlikely for fruit for consumption because transport and transfer would be very difficult, even though phylloxera has a moderate likelihood of association with the pathway. Establishment is very likely as the pest is already very widespread in the risk assessment area, occurring almost everywhere Vitis plants are present. Successful eradication is very unlikely and small populations can persist undetected in the soil. Spread within the EU is considered to be very likely because there are no effective barriers, it can disperse up to a few kilometres aided by the wind and it can readily be moved long distances with planting material. Grafting with resistant rootstocks throughout the EU ensures that the production of fruit and plants for planting is rarely affected by phylloxera infestations and, if so, only at a limited level. The Panel considers that the IIAII measures for D. vitifoliae do not assist in preventing entry and are ineffective in preventing spread because detection is so difficult. Restricting movements of plants for planting to cuttings grafted on resistant rootstocks, in combination with treatments (e.g. particularly fungicides and hot water treatments, was found to be the most effective risk reduction option. Limitations in the Cyprus protected zone regulations were identified.

  5. Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakstad Anders R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS. The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29% for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties.

  6. Multisite Parent-Centered Risk Assessment to Reduce Pediatric Oral Chemotherapy Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kathleen E.; Mazor, Kathleen M.; Roblin, Douglas; Biggins, Colleen; Wagner, Joann L.; Houlahan, Kathleen; Li, Justin W.; Keuker, Christopher; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen; Donovan, Jennifer; Kanaan, Abir; Weingart, Saul N.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Observational studies describe high rates of errors in home oral chemotherapy use in children. In hospitals, proactive risk assessment methods help front-line health care workers develop error prevention strategies. Our objective was to engage parents of children with cancer in a multisite study using proactive risk assessment methods to identify how errors occur at home and propose risk reduction strategies. Methods: We recruited parents from three outpatient pediatric oncology clinics in the northeast and southeast United States to participate in failure mode and effects analyses (FMEA). An FMEA is a systematic team-based proactive risk assessment approach in understanding ways a process can fail and develop prevention strategies. Steps included diagram the process, brainstorm and prioritize failure modes (places where things go wrong), and propose risk reduction strategies. We focused on home oral chemotherapy administration after a change in dose because prior studies identified this area as high risk. Results: Parent teams consisted of four parents at two of the sites and 10 at the third. Parents developed a 13-step process map, with two to 19 failure modes per step. The highest priority failure modes included miscommunication when receiving instructions from the clinician (caused by conflicting instructions or parent lapses) and unsafe chemotherapy handling at home. Recommended risk assessment strategies included novel uses of technology to improve parent access to information, clinicians, and other parents while at home. Conclusion: Parents of pediatric oncology patients readily participated in a proactive risk assessment method, identifying processes that pose a risk for medication errors involving home oral chemotherapy. PMID:23633976

  7. An assessment of propeller aircraft noise reduction technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, F. Bruce

    1995-01-01

    This report is a review of the literature regarding propeller airplane far-field noise reduction. Near-field and cabin noise reduction are not specifically addressed. However, some of the approaches used to reduce far-field noise produce beneficial effects in the near-field and in the cabin. The emphasis is on propeller noise reduction but engine exhaust noise reduction by muffling is also addressed since the engine noise becomes a significant part of the aircraft noise signature when propeller noise is reduced. It is concluded that there is a substantial body of information available that can be used as the basis to reduce propeller airplane noise. The reason that this information is not often used in airplane design is the associated weight, cost, and performance penalties. It is recommended that the highest priority be given to research for reducing the penalties associated with lower operating RPM and propeller diameter while increasing the number of blades. Research to reduce engine noise and explore innovative propeller concepts is also recommended.

  8. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 0–29.9 Obesity 30.0 and Above Waist Circumference Measuring waist circumference helps screen for possible health risks that come ... Risks of Obesity-Associated Diseases by BMI and Waist Circumference provides you with an idea of whether your ...

  9. Risk Assessment References: Documented Literature Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    and portfolio risk analysis ( CAPRA ) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats... CAPRA methodology are provided.” [p. 789] Key words: All hazards; consequence; critical asset protection; decision; homeland security; risk

  10. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  11. Anterior disc displacement with reduction and symptomatic hypermobility in the human temporomandibular joint : Prevalence rates and risk factors in children and teenagers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slater, James J. R. Huddleston; Lobbezoo, Frank; Onland-Moret, N. Charlotte; Naeije, Machiel

    2007-01-01

    Aims: To assess the prevalence rates and risk factors of anterior disc displacement with reduction (ADDR) and symptomatic hypermobility in a large sample of children and teenagers. Prevalence rates were also established in samples of young adults and adults. Methods: Children from 7 Dutch primary an

  12. Risk assessment of biological hazards in the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugas, Marta; Tsigarida, Eirini; Robinson, Tobin; Calistri, Paolo

    2007-11-30

    International, community and national food safety law and any subsequent decision-making practices aim to be based on risk analysis--a process consisting of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. With the appointment of the European Food Safety Authority as an independent scientific point of reference in risk assessment, there is a clear functional separation between risk assessment and risk management in the European Union food safety context. When a food safety question on microbiological hazards is to be answered--which is under the remit of the EFSA's Scientific Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ)--extensive dialogue and interactions covering the clarity of the question, the acceptability of the deadline and the availability of all necessary information take place with both the risk managers who ask the question and the stakeholders. During the first mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel (2003-2006), the scientific opinions were mainly based on qualitative and in some cases semi-quantitative microbiological risk assessment. In the second mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel, and as a first step towards developing a European approach on Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA), EFSA is preparing to carry out a QMRA on Salmonella in pigs, at European level through a consortium of European institutes.

  13. Chronic Disease Risk Reduction with a Community-Based Lifestyle Change Programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ray M; Aldana, Steven G; Greenlaw, Roger L; Salberg, Audrey; Englert, Heike

    2008-01-01

    Objective To assess whether reduced health risks resulting from the Coronary Health Improvement Project (CHIP) persist through 18 months. Methods: The CHIP is a four-week health education course designed to help individuals reduce cardiovascular risk by improving nutrition and physical activity behaviors. Analyses were based on 211 CHIP enrollees,…

  14. Pure meat – public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korzen, Sara Marie; Sandøe, Peter; Lassen, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar...

  15. The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

    2016-09-01

    Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

  16. 75 FR 41217 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: Reduction of Seller Concessions and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-15

    ... liquidity to the housing and mortgage markets during periods of economic volatility, as well as HUD's social... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: Reduction of...

  17. Pediatricians' Role and Practices regarding Provision of Guidance about Sexual Risk Reduction to Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Kim S.; Wyckoff, Sarah C.; Lin, Carol Y.; Whitaker, Daniel J.; Sukalac, Thomas; Fowler, Mary Glenn

    2008-01-01

    A randomly selected nationally representative sample of 508 practicing pediatricians was surveyed in order to identify factors associated with physician delivery of primary prevention to parents about sexual risk reduction (SRR). A full 86% (n=435) reported that provision of SRR guidance is equally or more important than other guidance provided to…

  18. Education for disaster risk reduction : linking theory with practice in Ghana´s basic schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apronti, Priscilla; Saito, Osamu; Otsuki, K.; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana

    2015-01-01

    Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR) concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the ne

  19. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paltrinieri, N.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Bonvicini, S.; Spadoni, G.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements m

  20. Community-Managed Disaster Risk Reduction : Investing in Resilience. A report prepared for Cordaid

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gordon, A.N.

    2012-01-01

    Cordaid has been supporting community-managed disaster risk reduction (CMDRR) and drought cycle management (DCM) in the Horn of Africa for eight years. Many evaluations have pointed to successful outcomes but quantitative data are scarce. The aim of this study was to verify the extent to which Corda

  1. Cardiovascular Risk Reduction for African-American Men through Health Empowerment and Anger Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Torrance; Braithwaite, Harold; Johnson, Larry; Harris, Catrell; Katkowsky, Steven; Troutman, Adewale

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To examine impact of CVD risk reduction intervention for African-American men in the Atlanta Empowerment Zone (AEZ) designed to target anger management. Design: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test was employed as a non-parametric alternative to the t-test for independent samples. This test was employed because the data used in this analysis…

  2. Environmental exposure reduction in high-risk newborns : where do we start?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schonberger, HJAM; Maas, T; Dompeling, E; Pisters, J; Sijbrandij, J; van der Heide, S; van Weel, C; van Schayck, OP

    2003-01-01

    Background: When analyzing the effect of environmental exposure reduction measures on asthma in high-risk children, one must know how far asthmatic families already have applied such measures, because this would affect the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions aimed at reducing environmental

  3. Environmental exposure reduction in high-risk newborns: where do we start?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schönberger, H.J.A.M.; Maas, T.; Dompeling, E.C.; Pisters, J.; Sijbrandij, J.; Heide, S. van der; Knottnerus, J.A.; Weel, C. van; Schayck, C.P. van

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: When analyzing the effect of environmental exposure reduction measures on asthma in high-risk children, one must know how far asthmatic families already have applied such measures, because this would affect the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions aimed at reducing environmental

  4. Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

    2014-10-01

    Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.

  5. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  6. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation bij passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molag e.a., M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protectionswas investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements mo

  7. Some Methodological Problems, Solutions and Findings from Evaluating Risk Reduction Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Harris K.; Di Nitto, Diana

    1982-01-01

    Reports three methodological problems found in evaluating five risk reduction projects in Florida. Found that activities aimed at producing positive self-awareness and exposure to rewarding nondrug activities taught with a mixture of didactic and discussion methods and exercises are best. (Author/JAC)

  8. Asbestos exposure--quantitative assessment of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, J.M.; Weill, H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for deriving quantitative estimates of asbestos-associated health risks are reviewed and their numerous assumptions and uncertainties described. These methods involve extrapolation of risks observed at past relatively high asbestos concentration levels down to usually much lower concentration levels of interest today--in some cases, orders of magnitude lower. These models are used to calculate estimates of the potential risk to workers manufacturing asbestos products and to students enrolled in schools containing asbestos products. The potential risk to workers exposed for 40 yr to 0.5 fibers per milliliter (f/ml) of mixed asbestos fiber type (a permissible workplace exposure limit under consideration by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) ) are estimated as 82 lifetime excess cancers per 10,000 exposed. The risk to students exposed to an average asbestos concentration of 0.001 f/ml of mixed asbestos fiber types for an average enrollment period of 6 school years is estimated as 5 lifetime excess cancers per one million exposed. If the school exposure is to chrysotile asbestos only, then the estimated risk is 1.5 lifetime excess cancers per million. Risks from other causes are presented for comparison; e.g., annual rates (per million) of 10 deaths from high school football, 14 from bicycling (10-14 yr of age), 5 to 20 for whooping cough vaccination. Decisions concerning asbestos products require participation of all parties involved and should only be made after a scientifically defensible estimate of the associated risk has been obtained. In many cases to date, such decisions have been made without adequate consideration of the level of risk or the cost-effectiveness of attempts to lower the potential risk. 73 references.

  9. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme `Risk Analysis`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L. [eds.] [University of Groningen, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Groningen (Netherlands); Van Ham, J. [TNO Institute for Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Olsthoorn, A.A. [VUA, Free University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs.

  10. On the assessment of marginal life saving costs for risk acceptance criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Katharina; Virguez, Edgar; Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio

    2013-01-01

    : The definition of the marginal life saving costs, the discount rate used for comparing costs and benefits that accrue at different points in time and the time horizon over which future consequences of the decision are taken into account. In the present paper these issues are discussed based on a clear......During the evaluation of societal risk acceptance based on the Life Quality Index (LQI), the marginal life saving costs have to be assessed and compared with the Societal Willingness to Pay for a marginal increase in life safety. With this procedure, decisions on investments into different risk...... reduction measures are based on efficiency considerations in order to achieve an optimal allocation of limited societal resources. Three basic assumptions can have a large effect on the efficiency of a risk reduction measure and the absolute level of risk to life deemed to be acceptable by the LQI criterion...

  11. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  12. Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phibbs, Suzanne; Kenney, Christine; Severinsen, Christina; Mitchell, Jon; Hughes, Roger

    2016-12-14

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015) is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the "new" agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010-2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

  13. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider t...

  14. Mercury from dental amalgam: exposure and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koral, Stephen M

    2013-02-01

    There has long been an undercurrent within the dental profession of anti-amalgam sentiment, a "mercury-free" movement. To assess whether anything is or is not scientifically wrong with amalgam, one must look to the vast literature on exposure, toxicology, and risk assessment of mercury. The subject of risk assessment goes straight to the heart of the debate over whether a malgam is safe, or not, for unrestricted use in dentistry in the population at large.

  15. Ozone flux modelling for risk assessment: status and research needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuovinen J-P

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, some shortcomings involved in the modelling of ozone fluxes in the context of local-scale risk assessment are discussed, especially as related to the data collected within the International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests. An enhanced monitoring strategy, that would provide a sounder basis for the development, validation and application of risk assessment modelling tools, is also suggested.

  16. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  17. The readability of online breast cancer risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortez, Sarah; Milbrandt, Melissa; Kaphingst, Kimberly; James, Aimee; Colditz, Graham

    2015-11-01

    Numerous breast cancer risk assessment tools that allow users to input personal risk information and obtain a personalized breast cancer risk estimate are available on the Internet. The goal of these tools is to increase screening awareness and identify modifiable health behaviors; however, the utility of this risk information is limited by the readability of the material. We undertook this study to assess the overall readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and accompanying information, as well as to identify areas of suggested improvement. We searched for breast cancer risk assessment tools, using five search terms, on three search engines. All searches were performed on June 12, 2014. Sites that met inclusion criteria were then assessed for readability using the suitability assessment of materials (SAM) and the SMOG readability formula (July 1, 2014–January 31, 2015). The primary outcomes are the frequency distribution of overall SAM readability category (superior, adequate, or not suitable) and mean SMOG reading grade level. The search returned 42 sites were eligible for assessment, only 9 (21.4 %) of which achieved an overall SAM superior rating, and 27 (64.3 %) were deemed adequate. The average SMOG reading grade level was grade 12.1 (SD 1.6, range 9–15). The readability of breast cancer risk assessment tools and the sites that host them is an important barrier to risk communication. This study demonstrates that most breast cancer risk assessment tools are not accessible to individuals with limited health literacy skills. More importantly, this study identifies potential areas of improvement and has the potential to heighten a physician’s awareness of the Internet resources a patient might navigate in their quest for breast cancer risk information.

  18. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-08-05

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.

  19. Pesticide Exposure, Safety Issues, and Risk Assessment Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos A. Damalas

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Pesticides are widely used in agricultural production to prevent or control pests, diseases, weeds, and other plant pathogens in an effort to reduce or eliminate yield losses and maintain high product quality. Although pesticides are developed through very strict regulation processes to function with reasonable certainty and minimal impact on human health and the environment, serious concerns have been raised about health risks resulting from occupational exposure and from residues in food and drinking water. Occupational exposure to pesticides often occurs in the case of agricultural workers in open fields and greenhouses, workers in the pesticide industry, and exterminators of house pests. Exposure of the general population to pesticides occurs primarily through eating food and drinking water contaminated with pesticide residues, whereas substantial exposure can also occur in or around the home. Regarding the adverse effects on the environment (water, soil and air contamination from leaching, runoff, and spray drift, as well as the detrimental effects on wildlife, fish, plants, and other non-target organisms, many of these effects depend on the toxicity of the pesticide, the measures taken during its application, the dosage applied, the adsorption on soil colloids, the weather conditions prevailing after application, and how long the pesticide persists in the environment. Therefore, the risk assessment of the impact of pesticides either on human health or on the environment is not an easy and particularly accurate process because of differences in the periods and levels of exposure, the types of pesticides used (regarding toxicity and persistence, and the environmental characteristics of the areas where pesticides are usually applied. Also, the number of the criteria used and the method of their implementation to assess the adverse effects of pesticides on human health could affect risk assessment and would possibly affect the characterization

  20. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.